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The stock market stuff because there's so
many games going on. But when you

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get into the credit market, the
dollar, and in the bond market,

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the currency market and bond market,
that they are longer term trends and when

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these trends shift change, you can
see them setting up and then they stay

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in those trends. They don't have
the volatility, and that's Frankly, my

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advice to people listening is you're listening
to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network where you

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00:00:24,559 --> 00:00:29,960
get valuable information. You just can't
find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying

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00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:35,600
times. You need the Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. Go to

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00:00:35,679 --> 00:00:42,399
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your
free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network

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00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:51,840
now more than ever, and welcome
you are listening to the Financial Survival Network

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00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,880
on your host Carrie Lutz. Well, hey, we're in the first week

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of November twenty twenty three credit enclosion, regional bank disaster. The Federal Reserve

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is increasing the emergency facility to keep
the banks afloat weekly. So is that

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the sign of a great economy?
Well, let's talk with our good friend

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Gordont Loong Mattis dot com. Gordon. It's great to have you back on.

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Hey. If you got a question
for Gordon myself, the email is

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kl at kerrie Let's dot com.
Gordon's been a while, Hey, we

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were talking for years how the subprime
auto market was going to implode, and

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basically that's happened now. Repos at
near all time highs, credit card defaults

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going up, foreclosures, mortgage foreclosures
going up. What is an investor supposed

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to do here? Gordon? Well, I can tell you if anybody who's

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got debt right now certainly got a
problem, as you just just point out,

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you know, on the cars I'm
seeing people. It's stunned me that.

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And I can remember when you and
I first started talking a lot about

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credit over paying over one thousand dollars
a month for these f one to fifty

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trucks, et cetera. And and
it's because they've been rolling over their cars

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and trading them in a little sooner
and now all of a sudden the crunch

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is there. But in many cases
they're somewhat protected if they can afford that

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payment, because if they're out to
seventy two months, it's the new guys

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that are trying to get the credit. They can't can't get it, and

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it's spelling carry over into the end
of the small business sector. The big

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the big corporations, and the big
players. You know, they locked in

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their money. That's why this recession
hasn't come faster. People bought their houses

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locked in their mortgage long term.
So a vast majority of people are not

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really feeling that that was increase in
rates. But as you go down the

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food chain, you get down into
the lower fifty percent of the S and

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P five hundred, you start to
see it, and it gets worse when

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you get down to the Russell two
thousand. Then you get down to the

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next level where they're not a listed
company, and a moment pause there.

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It is a serious issue because you
know, they barely got out of the

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COVID vices. They were broke,
they barely hung on. All sorts of

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issues for parents is in many cases
that they had to suck in. So

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then they get out of it and
I have to buy borrow money, and

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one they can't get it, and
if they can get it, they got

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to pay, they're going to pay
through the roof. So they're just getting

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absolutely crushed. So the only direct
to answer your question what should you do

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about it? One is this is
not the day to have any debt,

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and you should have been getting ready
for this one because we could see it

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coming. You know, debt is
when you have debt in these kind of

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markets, you're in tough times,
a really serious and the rates will come

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down marginally. We can expect that
at some point. But what we people

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are not fully appreciation we're in a
new era. The great moderation of forty

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years of low rates is gone.
We're going to be in sustain higher rates

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on the longer term money for the
I would say for the least the next

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decade. And the reason for it
is, and you and I were just

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talking about this, is because the
thirty or more the thirty year bond is

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tracking exactly to the United States credit
defaults uprate. That's never I've never seen

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that before. What's that say?
It says that money is now starting to

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price on the worry of the US
size of debt. It's not that it's

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going to default, but that they're
going to the debasement's now a bigger warrior

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worry. So you can see it
in the auctions. Some of these auctions

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are a complete disaster because we're so
dependent on foreign money. So rates are

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up. So if you have to
borrow now and you're not one of these

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protected ones, I've said, you've
got your real problem, and it's not

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going away quickly. Yeah. Yeah, So so you know this is going

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to be with us maybe for decade. Inflation you know, inflationary cycles last.

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You know, they don't just go
away because the FED raises rates a

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few times, right, I mean
they go on and on and on until

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whatever the forces were that started it, uh subside right exactly. Curious.

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Yeah, you know, I lived
through the seventies and it was a t

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and it goes in waves and you
and it's and once the genie is out

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of the bottle, we all know
how difficulty and that big mistake that's going

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on right now having and remember how
we got out of it. We had

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to the Japanese carry trade was one. We had to go to the petrol

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dollar to solve the energy issue.
And by the way, we broke the

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petrol dollars Saudi Arabia, and then
we're not transacting go oil anymore in the

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world. Market's ah solely in dollars, it's in anything. The Japanese carry

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trade is a huge issue because our
funding our debt now is the only one

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buying our debt is Japan And it's
an issue. So things that helped solve

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it back in the seventies are here
today and getting worse. But the bigger

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issue, in spite of what I
just said there, is how we got

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out of that seventies crisis when when
it came in ways was it wasn't that

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Paul Volker drove rates up to sixteen
percent. We know he did that,

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but people forget that a year and
a half before that, he was actually

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a kind of a bum to use
that expression, because he had had to

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jack up. He jacked up the
rates that were in a recession. He

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had to take him down again and
it was such a debacle. And then

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eventually a little later he drove them
right up through the roof, and everybody

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says and that solved it. But
people forget was before he was chairman of

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the Federal Reserve. He was President
of the New York Federal Reserve. And

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that's where the power isn't the Fed, and heast certainly was in the seventies,

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that's where the decisions were made close
to the Wall Street. Washington was

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a figurehead. But what he did
when he was president of New York FED

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he tightened liquidity. He really it
wasn't rated. He just got credit cards

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down. They were on you know, they were lowering. Uh yeah,

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I remember all that. Yeah,
you see that. And that's so it's

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liquidity, liquidity, liquidity. And
then when he rose rates, it was

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it was between the two. And
I've got I've got charts that I've put

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together that show that we kept the
liquidity numbers all the way through since his

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era at relatively low ratios or or
the boundary conditions, and since since in

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the last three years we've driven him. We're just right through that and up.

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So we've had we all know the
story of the amount of liquidity.

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And even though we've been trying to
you know, quantitative tightening, we're tightening

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with lending standards, there is massive
amounts of liquidity that have been out there

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for at least the last years while
since COVID, and part of that is

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because Bidenomics is effectively training the money
out of the reverse repos I don't want

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to get technical, if you'd like, but it's they're pulling it out of

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the reverse repos and it's going through
the federal through General TGA and then out

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into the open market. So it's
just it's it's what it is is modern

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monetary theory MMT with a different version
shoe bidnomics. But that's coming to an

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end because the reverse repos have dropped
from two point six trillion down to one

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trillion in falling, so that that's
suddenly drying up. I didn't need to

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get a long window. But these
are the mechanics that people are just not

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talking about. But it's gott to
live through the seventies to remember them.

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Yeah, well nobody, you know, very few people on Wall Street have

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been through a through a bear market, let alone inflationary rout up right,

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exactly exactly. They're going to learn
the lessons of a lifetime. That's what's

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going to amp. You know,
it'll be tough times, but that's that's

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that's actually a healthy process. The
world's not coming to an end credit.

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It's when we, you know,
we get rid of the mal investment,

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the better businesses survive, the ones
that shouldn't be in business fail. This

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is good, you know, you
know, it's all right to have a

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bad hair day. You know they
but we're in a we're in a world

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where we don't do that anymore.
And it's it can it you know,

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constructive? You need this in a
capitalist systems to be vibrant. Yeah,

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but the problem is these kids have
learned that recessions are bad and you can't

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have recessions, God forbid, because
you know, we just need to print

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more money because you know, recessions
are bad, right, but they're really

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a purifying kind of thing, like
you know they are. That's exactly.

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It needs to be flushed periodically.
Put it that way, right, That's

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that's that's what makes capitalism work.
And it's it's it's hard, but it's

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healthy. It's like taking your kids
off their credit credit they're overspending. It

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just have to do it. It
changes behavior. And we went so long

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with bad behavior knowing the credit there
was a safety and enter credit was just

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there. The malinvestment is has went
to an extreme that it's actually jeopardizing our

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entire financial system. That is that
is the biggest There is so much leverage

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that we all know and we got
so used to it, and the games

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that are going on behind the scenes
within the credit market is so underestimated because

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if you give you know, the
dot com area carry you remember how we

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learned about credit defaults ops and clos
and nobody knew with our CEOs. And

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then during the financial credit Great financial
Crisis, people learned about mortgage backed securities

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and clos and all those and it's
all so this it's exploded, and now

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we're into what collateralized loan, not
just alles loan, but collateralized swaps.

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Get swaps collateralized to protect the value
of collateral it's being paid or being pledged

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because of something called re re hype
rehype of hYP hyper hypothegation, right exactly,

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that's a that's a multiple. I
guess they created that word so people

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wouldn't say it. But but I
didn't mean to get again get negative on

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this part. But there's just so
much that you have to understand. They

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even be a minor investment investor today
or you're you're going to get hood wink

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here. Yeah, well, hey, the retail always gets it linked.

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Right at the end of the day, the taxpayer and the retail. The

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consumer always pays the bill because that's
where the money is. And you know,

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and one of the things that is
that bothers me the most, and

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we're you know, we started here
with this small business, and you know,

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the small business has been the basis
of our country. It has built

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the country. I was looking the
other day at the at the ten richest

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people in America. Every single one
of them started as a small businessman and

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now are massive conglomerates. We can
talk about the best best so as we

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best what we can talk about Microsoft, we can talk about soccer, berget

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Facebook, we can talk about Larry
Ellison an oracle, we can talk about

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Warren Buffet with Berkshire Hat, the
way that they reside Bloomberg. We need

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I just every one of them.
And so what's happening now is there's the

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rates that they're at and will be
higher, is really impeding the small businessman

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making a goal that once or even
getting started. And so we're so dependent

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on these corporations and I spent a
vast majority of my years in corporate life

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that that aren't delivering to the GDP
that it should be delivering, and and

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and jobs that go with it.
And when artificial intelligence really comes into swing,

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you're going to see the corporations take
full advantage of it. And there's

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going to be problems with it.
Say it's a given, right, So

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but this this sounds negative, but
it's actually healthy. I'm more optimistic out

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over the next five years where we
could be if we could get through and

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get some cleansing going on here,
because as bad as it seems in this

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kind, it's worse around the world. The United States is economy is the

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best economy. And I just got
back from Europe and I was I was

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glad to get back in the in
the US from what I was seeing over

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there. And I talk regularly to
friends in Japan and people a deal out

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of China, no our economy,
so there will be a flight to safety

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I see coming in the US doll
or two. So it's not dealing with

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gloom and it's opportunity right now.
Yeah, well, you know danger opportunity

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00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:09,840
right to exactly the Asian Chinese thing. There's two characters in the word crisis,

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two Chinese characters. One is danger, the other's opportunity. So where

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wise men fear to go, fools
dare to travel, right, that is

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the era with that we're in.
So do your homework and do when there's

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these kind of changes like last week, we saw the ten year bond just

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to do a drop. We we
just never see something, you know,

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watching the bond markets like watching paint
dry, but you could see it coming.

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00:14:35,799 --> 00:14:43,000
It was like classic technical analysis for
sure. And it has spillovers,

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00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,799
you know, the stock market stuff
because there's so many games going on.

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But when you get into the credit
market, the dollar, and the in

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00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:54,080
the bond market. The currency market
and bond market, they are longer term

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trends and when these trends shift to
change, you can see them setting up,

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and then they stay in those trends. They don't have the volatility,

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and then that's prankically. My advice
to people listening is, you know,

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don't lock all your money into playing
the stock market. There's a lot of

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different ways to invest today that are
just really over overlooked. And it's because

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it's because of these negative comments that
I've made, are actually presenting these opportunities

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to investors. But you got to
just stop playing just looking at the stock

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market. It's like this infatuation that
swept over America in the last i don't

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know twenty five years, maybe because
it was easy money. It was pretty

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hard not to make money in the
stock market last twenty years, you can

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always buy anything and you made money
on the surface, yeah, surface,

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So do you make the money then
for the coming ten years here, I

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think there's going to be a lot
of money made. As I said in

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the in the bond, in the
credit market, the bond market, if

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you invest properly. You know,
the whole game of going to hard assets

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is a all trodden game. You
know, you and I were talking about

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years ago, and I can remember
farmland was a big deal in two thousand

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and two, and then and and
that got drove through the roof, and

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then we were into forests and you
know, and then the goal was always

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right from the dot com a big
investment silver. I still think there's big

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room in gold and silver as a
precious metal. But you know, all

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the hard asks, but most of
them are really well overbought. And if

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we have a tough credit market and
liquidity squeeze, they're going to be problematic

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at the levels that they're at.
But they are always you know, good

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protection of real value, but they
may not give you a real return.

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At least they'll give you a return
on you a return of your money,

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right, So but it really it's
it's a time to be looking at value

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rather than growth. And you know
that we've been talking about that coming and

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I think we've turned that corner.
I think we're now in that era.

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All right. So all right,
so we're in a new era kind of

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and you've got to adjust your strategies. It's not your father's stock market or

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your grandfather's stock market. Hey,
Gordon, just tell us where do we

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find you these days? How do
we connect with you on the web.

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Yeah, I post any work that
I do at Matassi dot com, m

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A t A SII dot com exclusive
for there week, I put out free

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newsletters and videos. The only thing
I ask is is give me some input

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00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:37,279
on what you see because I get
tremendous input that helps my investment because we're

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primarily investors. All right, all
right, Well, hey, if you

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got a question for Gordon or myself, just shoot me an email KL at

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00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:52,039
Carrie Lutts dot com. And hey, you're at the site, just click

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00:17:52,079 --> 00:17:56,200
the link. It'll take your right
to Gordon's site, and while you're there,

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00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,519
sign up for your free newsletter.
Gordon, always a pleasure, Thanks

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for stopping, Thank you, curious, talk to you again. Thanks for

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listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network
your solution to today's trying times. For

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00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:15,279
the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork
dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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than ever,