Here in a little bit, let's go out to the Kway comspiral hotline.
Though. I'll bring our guy, Ryan Michael, who works for the Pro
Football Hall of Fame. Writes good stuff there, write some stuff for the
CFL. We've had him on the show before, we had a chance to
talk to him, but some status. He's our unofficial statistician, unofficial official
statistician here at BCT Ryan, Welcome to the show. Hey Ben Nick,
how you doing tonight? Doing pretty well? You DM me earlier and you
know you were talking about having some data on Sean Payton's starts versus his finishes.
Now, this year started kind of slow, finished kind of hot,
except for you know there at the end if they've been truss and you know,
I went down home from there, but I thought that the middle of
the season, you know, the Broncos kind of started taking off. But
historically has Sean Payton been a hot start guy, a hot finish guy,
or neither. He's been at a hot start, cold finish guy traditionally,
You're right. Last year, you know, the middle of the season is
really where our strength was. So it depends on where you're choosing the frame
it. You know, we got off to a seven and six start before
we finishing one in three. And it's really that one in three finish that
I hone in on, and I say, this might be a cause for
concern because I'm not a believer in outliers. But when you see the same
thing happen year after year after year, now happening with multiple football clubs,
it's a cause for concern. So we could dial it back to twenty seventeen
in New Orleans, they got off to an eight and two start, they
finished four and four. In twenty eighteen, they got off to a thirteen
and two start, they finished one in three. In twenty nineteen, ten
and two start, they finished three and two. Twenty twenty, they got
off to a ten and two start, they finished three and three, they
lose breeze. They actually get off to a fairly decent five and two start,
and they finished four and six. So when you see it happen that
many times, especially if we're talking to recent history right over the past decade,
half decade, it's a cause for concern. Is that something that is
attributable to a defense an offensive thing, is it makes results, does it
schedule? What can we attribute that to, I would say it's a mixture
of a number of different things. Historically, New Orleans didn't really feel strong
defenses. They got better during that stretch from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty,
but they were never elite. And obviously our defense was a mess last year.
So if you're not closing with a strong defense, it's not unusual to
see teams fall apart towards the end. But it's also a matter of the
offenses fizzling out. If you saw how productive and efficient Drew Brees was in
twenty eighteen, three quarters of the way through the season, he was on
pace to have one of the greatest seasons in the history of the NFL,
ended up finishing second team All Pro and still had an elite season, led
the league in passer rating. But Sean Payton's offenses tend to fizzle late in
the year. It happened in New Orleans and it's happening in Denver. Well.
The biggest thing is, obviously the Ben and I were just talking about
this before you join us, Ryan, you know, what could the Broncos
actually do? Could they move up? And the idea is that everyone feels
as though a rookie quarterback kind of changes everything. It rises all tides,
or however the saying goes, when we look at coach Sean Payton, hey,
you seem as though over his career there hasn't been a development of a
young quarterback. Do you think that he would be capable of doing it now
that he has so much knowledge about the game now a opposed to early on
in his career. I think we have to be realistic. And I think
a lot of fans look at the NFL Draft as if we're playing Madden.
So it would be nice in the scenario, as Ben pointed out, to
trade up at take McCarthy at nine and have McCarthy flesh out into an eventual
Pro Bowl quarterback. That would be great. Is that realistic? Maybe?
Is it probable? Probably not? And historically speaking, Sean Payton's resume outside
of Drew Brees is a pretty rough one. We shared it on Twitter a
few days ago, and if you look at the two different chapters of his
career, the chapter with Drew Brees and without Drew Brees. And I'm not
the first person to make this point or to bring up this discussion, but
if you look at the chart that I put out a few days ago.
You'll see that Sean Payton coached a total of eleven seasons as either a head
coach or an assistant cort positional coach, and the average offensive scoring rank of
those offenses was twenty point five. So he's finishing in the bottom third of
the league where his peak. His ceiling was the two thousand Giants team that
went to the Super Bowl. They finished fifteenth, and the floor was the
nineteen ninety eight Eagles, they finished thirtieth. That's not a great resume when
your floor is pretty much the worst in professional football and your ceiling is an
average offensive football club. So it's not that I don't believe that he can't
put that together in Denver this year or perhaps next year, but he really
has to do it because Drew Brees did it without him. Then I know
a lot of the trolls on Twitter give you a lot of grief for pointing
out the obvious. Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl quarterback and Diego. He
was a top five quarterback in San Diego and one year he went without Sean
Payton in twenty twelve, with Aaron Cromer and Joevitt an interim head coach.
He throws for fifty two hundred yard lead the league with forty three touchdown passes.
I mean, that's a pretty good resume without the offensive genius. What
does Sean Payton have without Drew Brees remains to be seen. I wouldn't close
the book on him just yet. But he has to believer well. And
that's the thing. I mean. People arrantly think that I hate Sean Payton.
I don't. I don't even dislike Sean Payton. I think Sean Payton
is a good coach. I don't think he's a great one, but I
think he's a good one. And I think that the difference there is how
much of a difference you make. And I do think that Sean Payton did
have an impact on New Orleans. I do now. To say that he
took them from a garbage franchise to number one is not exactly true, because
under Jim Hasltt Randy Miller, THEYD had a pretty decent rebuild. They fell
off that year right before Sean Payton got there because Deuce mccoister got hurt and
they had a couple other things, and then they was an Aaron Brooks you
know, finally flamed out as quarterback. But you know, if you look
at and you were talking about the suspension year, and yes, Drew Brees
did all those things, but the bottom fell out of the defense, and
then the defense kind of came back when Sean Payton came back. That says
something to his ability to be a head coach. So I don't want to
take anything away from Sean Payton. But at the same time, we look
at what Andy Reid has accomplished with non Hall of Fame quarterbacks, which you
pointed out on your own Twitter, guys like Alex Smith and Donovan McNabb,
who I think are all of good but not Hall of fame. And then
you look at what guys what Sean Payton has accomplis without Drew Brees, And
it's a no brainer here. I mean Andy Reid is by far ahead of
him, and that it hurts as a Bronco fan to watch that. I
agree, I don't think they belong in the same sentence. Then I don't
mean that in a malicious way against Sean. But if you look at the
resume Andy Reid is put together outside of Patrick Mahomes, that's really the story
that needs to be told when he ends up inevitably in the Pro Football Hall
of Fame because he's put together so many elite seasons in terms of from an
offensive perspective, from a head coaching perspective, he succeeded with so many players.
Alex Smith led the league in passer rating before Pat Mahomes took over in
twenty eighteen. And again I don't know. I would put Alex Smith in
the Hall very good. I would definitely put McNabb there, But the resume
again without the elite Hall of Fame first ballot. Patrick Mahomes quarterback for Andy
Reid speaks for itself. And we've seen a number of other head coaches who
have done well other places, whether as an offensive coordinator, as a positional
coach, and they're not tied specifically to one quarterback. We saw Bill Walsher,
we saw Mike Hombren do it, Andy Reid obviously, Mike Shanahan,
Bruce Arian, Sean McVay. I would very much like to see Sean Payton
step into that same category along with those guys. He has an opportunity to
do it this year. Well, it's interesting that the comparison to Andy Reed
I mean, based on the fact that both of those guys are now in
the same division here in AFC was do you feel as though when we look
at Sean Payton, he's signed a five year deal, he's going into year
four excuse me of that deal? Do you feel as though he is coaching
for his legacy in his time here here with the Broncos based on all the
information that you're presenting, Absolutely, absolutely, And Sean Payton has put together
one of the best head coaching resumes in NFL history, of borderline Hall of
Fame resume. Given the success that he had in New Orleans despite the reality
that he had Drew Brees in his back pocket, We're talking about a guy
who put together I believe it was twelve top ten scoring seasons in fourteen years
in New Orleans. So his resume there does speak for itself. But he
has the opportunity to separate himself from some of the other coaches in NFL history
who have had success predominantly with one starting quarterback. He has a chance to
have a fresh start here in Denver. Didn't work out last year with Russell
Wilson, and I would put that a lot more at the feet of Sean
Payton than I would rust. So it's one season. I don't think that
anybody should be overreacting to one season that wasn't horrible. Eight and nine is
not a horrible measure. But the standards are high here in Bronos Country.
They should be well yeah, And I think you go back and you look
at what Sean Payton has accomplished in sixteen years in the regular season. You
look at it one sixty ninety eight. That's a sixty two percent winning percentage.
It's very, very good. And he's a winning record in the playoffs
nine and eight, but only one super Bowl in that timeframe. And he
is somebody who covets the legacy portion of the Hall of Fame. And I
talked to some current general managers and former general managers over the course the last
couple of weeks, and they all said the same thing. It's like,
there's no way Sean Payton gets a Hall of Fame uless he wins another Super
Bowl because of the taints to the legacy with both bounty Gate and Pillgates.
So you know, I think that I think he desperately wants to win,
but it just it felt like that instead of trying to devise something that worked
for Russell Wilson. He felt like he was going to Jettis and everything,
get everything the way he knows how to do it, the way he wants
to do it, and try to win in that regard. Is that fair
to say or am I overreaching? No? I don't think you're overreaching at
all. I mean part of being a great coach is being able to tailor
an offense or a defense to the strengths of your players. And the way
that he misutilized I don't even if misutilizes really the right word. The offense
was a Sean Payton offense, and it's not his fault that he inherited a
quarterback whose skill set was the opposite match for his system. So I think
that we can give him a little bit of grace if he's able to start
fresh here in twenty twenty four and moving forward. I don't know that he
needs to win another championship to end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame,
but he does need to leave his mark by leading Denver to success and
to showcase that through the strengths that he's cultivated over a very long career.
The offense needs to operate the way a Sean Payton offense should operate. And
I don't care about the style. What we need is for them to produce
points. But but Ryan, what does that success actually translate too? I
mean, are we talking you know, winning eight games a season, winning
ten games a season, making a playoff, you know, making a late
run, and the playoffs where you may go in as a four seed and
then you're right there at the precipice, but you lose by a field goal?
Is that the measure of success for Sean Payton and this Broncos team.
I don't think it should be for him. I don't think it should be
for any of us here in Broncos Country. I don't think anybody listening right
now would be happy with that. And I think the scenario that you just
painted is a pretty realistic one. At the same time, there is an
element of luck and there is an element of the defense coming to deliver in
a sense that if we took the twenty twenty two Broncos defense and we put
it together with a twenty twenty three Broncos offense, I think we make the
postseason. I don't think we win a championship. So if the defense gets
sharper and part of that falls at the feet of the head coach, even
though he's an offensive winded head coach, there's going to be an opportunity to
make some movement. But we got to get to the postseason first, right.
I think most fans, if you said right now, we're going to
be a wild card team that's going to go one and done, but we're
going to be better than last year, none of us are going to be
satisfied with that. So just to build on what it is that you're saying,
because the standards are as high as they are here in Denver, that's
not going to cut it. I'd like to see a conference championship appearance and
you like this year, you know, Gus like, I mean, it's
not happening this year. To formulate the question, I couldn't even find a
way to formulate the question to that, But I'll just say it like this.
I think if we made the playoffs based on what we're about to face
this year, I think everybody would be satisfied with that. I think making
the playoffs every year all law Morety Schottenheimer and then going nowhere is not going
to satisfy Broncos fans. Fair. That's fair, that's fair. I mean,
we all want the same thing. And you know, to your point,
Ben, as far as all the grief you get for hating on Sean
Payton, I don't see it as hate either. All three of us are
rooting for him to succeed. All three of us would like to be in
New Orleans next year covering the Super Bowl and having the broad ess of the
super Bowl. That realistic, I don't think so. But we're all pulling
for him to succeed. It's just a matter of seeing it development well.
Yeah, And I think that's the thing like for me, I don't want
to speak for Nick, but I think we're on the same mindset, is
that we're just trying to contextualize things and sometimes that that requires looking at the
negatives in order to overcome them. We would, you know, we're not.
There's a whole radio station here in town for hating on the team.
We don't. We don't do that here. We're we're we're trying to be
optimistic. And I realize that I've been pessimistic in a way, but it's
it's also about, Hey, look I see these problems, and I don't
see the solution there can somebody either shake me out of my argue with me
and shake me out of that. You want me to shake you physical metaphor
you know you still want that, Martinelli. So that's why I'm keeping it
right here with it arms reach, so I can just yank it back.
But but I mean that that's what I want. I want someone to metaphorically
shake me out of this, or or or hard evidence me out of this.
And so far no one's been able to do that. They just complain
that I'm a hater and move on. Yeah, well said, Well said,
Well, it's kind. It's time for the Broncos to prove you wrong,
to prove me wrong. Maybe both of us could be a I don't
know. I wouldn't say that Nick is necessarily optimistic. He's probably a little
bit more optimistic than you and I are. I'd like to channel that a
little bit. We'll see Nick's knick superhero name is Captain Optimism. I didn't
mean to ruin your secret identity there, buddy, but but I'm gonna let
the world know. Hey, Royan, we always appreciate the time with you.
We'll have you back on here soon with the next set of data to
you know, to tell us how to turn this thing around right. Pleasure,
Ben, appreciate your time.