WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.200 Here in a little bit, let's go out to the Kway comspiral hotline. 2 00:00:02.200 --> 00:00:05.280 Though. I'll bring our guy, Ryan Michael, who works for the Pro 3 00:00:05.320 --> 00:00:07.879 Football Hall of Fame. Writes good stuff there, write some stuff for the 4 00:00:07.879 --> 00:00:10.080 CFL. We've had him on the show before, we had a chance to 5 00:00:10.080 --> 00:00:13.560 talk to him, but some status. He's our unofficial statistician, unofficial official 6 00:00:13.599 --> 00:00:18.839 statistician here at BCT Ryan, Welcome to the show. Hey Ben Nick, 7 00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:23.640 how you doing tonight? Doing pretty well? You DM me earlier and you 8 00:00:23.679 --> 00:00:28.600 know you were talking about having some data on Sean Payton's starts versus his finishes. 9 00:00:28.640 --> 00:00:32.600 Now, this year started kind of slow, finished kind of hot, 10 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:34.880 except for you know there at the end if they've been truss and you know, 11 00:00:34.880 --> 00:00:38.399 I went down home from there, but I thought that the middle of 12 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:41.240 the season, you know, the Broncos kind of started taking off. But 13 00:00:41.600 --> 00:00:45.320 historically has Sean Payton been a hot start guy, a hot finish guy, 14 00:00:45.399 --> 00:00:50.920 or neither. He's been at a hot start, cold finish guy traditionally, 15 00:00:50.960 --> 00:00:53.320 You're right. Last year, you know, the middle of the season is 16 00:00:53.359 --> 00:00:56.920 really where our strength was. So it depends on where you're choosing the frame 17 00:00:57.000 --> 00:01:00.000 it. You know, we got off to a seven and six start before 18 00:01:00.079 --> 00:01:03.640 we finishing one in three. And it's really that one in three finish that 19 00:01:03.719 --> 00:01:06.439 I hone in on, and I say, this might be a cause for 20 00:01:06.599 --> 00:01:10.439 concern because I'm not a believer in outliers. But when you see the same 21 00:01:10.480 --> 00:01:15.120 thing happen year after year after year, now happening with multiple football clubs, 22 00:01:15.480 --> 00:01:19.120 it's a cause for concern. So we could dial it back to twenty seventeen 23 00:01:19.319 --> 00:01:23.439 in New Orleans, they got off to an eight and two start, they 24 00:01:23.480 --> 00:01:26.200 finished four and four. In twenty eighteen, they got off to a thirteen 25 00:01:26.280 --> 00:01:30.439 and two start, they finished one in three. In twenty nineteen, ten 26 00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:34.920 and two start, they finished three and two. Twenty twenty, they got 27 00:01:34.959 --> 00:01:38.359 off to a ten and two start, they finished three and three, they 28 00:01:38.400 --> 00:01:42.120 lose breeze. They actually get off to a fairly decent five and two start, 29 00:01:42.480 --> 00:01:45.519 and they finished four and six. So when you see it happen that 30 00:01:45.680 --> 00:01:49.319 many times, especially if we're talking to recent history right over the past decade, 31 00:01:49.480 --> 00:01:53.400 half decade, it's a cause for concern. Is that something that is 32 00:01:53.439 --> 00:02:00.280 attributable to a defense an offensive thing, is it makes results, does it 33 00:02:00.359 --> 00:02:06.239 schedule? What can we attribute that to, I would say it's a mixture 34 00:02:06.239 --> 00:02:09.479 of a number of different things. Historically, New Orleans didn't really feel strong 35 00:02:09.560 --> 00:02:15.360 defenses. They got better during that stretch from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty, 36 00:02:15.400 --> 00:02:17.639 but they were never elite. And obviously our defense was a mess last year. 37 00:02:19.000 --> 00:02:23.159 So if you're not closing with a strong defense, it's not unusual to 38 00:02:23.159 --> 00:02:25.280 see teams fall apart towards the end. But it's also a matter of the 39 00:02:25.319 --> 00:02:30.919 offenses fizzling out. If you saw how productive and efficient Drew Brees was in 40 00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:34.080 twenty eighteen, three quarters of the way through the season, he was on 41 00:02:34.120 --> 00:02:36.919 pace to have one of the greatest seasons in the history of the NFL, 42 00:02:37.439 --> 00:02:39.879 ended up finishing second team All Pro and still had an elite season, led 43 00:02:39.879 --> 00:02:44.840 the league in passer rating. But Sean Payton's offenses tend to fizzle late in 44 00:02:44.879 --> 00:02:47.879 the year. It happened in New Orleans and it's happening in Denver. Well. 45 00:02:47.919 --> 00:02:52.400 The biggest thing is, obviously the Ben and I were just talking about 46 00:02:52.439 --> 00:02:54.759 this before you join us, Ryan, you know, what could the Broncos 47 00:02:54.919 --> 00:03:00.360 actually do? Could they move up? And the idea is that everyone feels 48 00:03:00.240 --> 00:03:05.800 as though a rookie quarterback kind of changes everything. It rises all tides, 49 00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:10.319 or however the saying goes, when we look at coach Sean Payton, hey, 50 00:03:10.400 --> 00:03:15.039 you seem as though over his career there hasn't been a development of a 51 00:03:15.080 --> 00:03:19.639 young quarterback. Do you think that he would be capable of doing it now 52 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:23.400 that he has so much knowledge about the game now a opposed to early on 53 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:29.319 in his career. I think we have to be realistic. And I think 54 00:03:29.360 --> 00:03:31.960 a lot of fans look at the NFL Draft as if we're playing Madden. 55 00:03:32.120 --> 00:03:36.360 So it would be nice in the scenario, as Ben pointed out, to 56 00:03:36.479 --> 00:03:40.840 trade up at take McCarthy at nine and have McCarthy flesh out into an eventual 57 00:03:40.879 --> 00:03:46.520 Pro Bowl quarterback. That would be great. Is that realistic? Maybe? 58 00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:52.319 Is it probable? Probably not? And historically speaking, Sean Payton's resume outside 59 00:03:52.319 --> 00:03:54.439 of Drew Brees is a pretty rough one. We shared it on Twitter a 60 00:03:54.439 --> 00:03:59.319 few days ago, and if you look at the two different chapters of his 61 00:03:59.439 --> 00:04:02.599 career, the chapter with Drew Brees and without Drew Brees. And I'm not 62 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:05.560 the first person to make this point or to bring up this discussion, but 63 00:04:06.000 --> 00:04:09.280 if you look at the chart that I put out a few days ago. 64 00:04:09.560 --> 00:04:14.000 You'll see that Sean Payton coached a total of eleven seasons as either a head 65 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:18.240 coach or an assistant cort positional coach, and the average offensive scoring rank of 66 00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:24.920 those offenses was twenty point five. So he's finishing in the bottom third of 67 00:04:24.959 --> 00:04:29.639 the league where his peak. His ceiling was the two thousand Giants team that 68 00:04:29.639 --> 00:04:32.000 went to the Super Bowl. They finished fifteenth, and the floor was the 69 00:04:32.040 --> 00:04:36.399 nineteen ninety eight Eagles, they finished thirtieth. That's not a great resume when 70 00:04:36.600 --> 00:04:42.040 your floor is pretty much the worst in professional football and your ceiling is an 71 00:04:42.079 --> 00:04:46.000 average offensive football club. So it's not that I don't believe that he can't 72 00:04:46.079 --> 00:04:49.439 put that together in Denver this year or perhaps next year, but he really 73 00:04:49.519 --> 00:04:54.079 has to do it because Drew Brees did it without him. Then I know 74 00:04:54.160 --> 00:04:56.800 a lot of the trolls on Twitter give you a lot of grief for pointing 75 00:04:56.839 --> 00:05:00.680 out the obvious. Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl quarterback and Diego. He 76 00:05:00.720 --> 00:05:03.160 was a top five quarterback in San Diego and one year he went without Sean 77 00:05:03.199 --> 00:05:08.160 Payton in twenty twelve, with Aaron Cromer and Joevitt an interim head coach. 78 00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:12.279 He throws for fifty two hundred yard lead the league with forty three touchdown passes. 79 00:05:12.319 --> 00:05:15.199 I mean, that's a pretty good resume without the offensive genius. What 80 00:05:15.240 --> 00:05:19.160 does Sean Payton have without Drew Brees remains to be seen. I wouldn't close 81 00:05:19.199 --> 00:05:23.839 the book on him just yet. But he has to believer well. And 82 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:26.879 that's the thing. I mean. People arrantly think that I hate Sean Payton. 83 00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:29.759 I don't. I don't even dislike Sean Payton. I think Sean Payton 84 00:05:29.800 --> 00:05:30.639 is a good coach. I don't think he's a great one, but I 85 00:05:30.680 --> 00:05:34.160 think he's a good one. And I think that the difference there is how 86 00:05:34.240 --> 00:05:38.600 much of a difference you make. And I do think that Sean Payton did 87 00:05:38.600 --> 00:05:41.480 have an impact on New Orleans. I do now. To say that he 88 00:05:41.519 --> 00:05:45.040 took them from a garbage franchise to number one is not exactly true, because 89 00:05:45.079 --> 00:05:46.839 under Jim Hasltt Randy Miller, THEYD had a pretty decent rebuild. They fell 90 00:05:46.879 --> 00:05:51.240 off that year right before Sean Payton got there because Deuce mccoister got hurt and 91 00:05:51.240 --> 00:05:54.879 they had a couple other things, and then they was an Aaron Brooks you 92 00:05:54.879 --> 00:05:59.160 know, finally flamed out as quarterback. But you know, if you look 93 00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:01.360 at and you were talking about the suspension year, and yes, Drew Brees 94 00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:04.000 did all those things, but the bottom fell out of the defense, and 95 00:06:04.000 --> 00:06:06.680 then the defense kind of came back when Sean Payton came back. That says 96 00:06:06.680 --> 00:06:10.079 something to his ability to be a head coach. So I don't want to 97 00:06:10.120 --> 00:06:13.639 take anything away from Sean Payton. But at the same time, we look 98 00:06:13.639 --> 00:06:15.839 at what Andy Reid has accomplished with non Hall of Fame quarterbacks, which you 99 00:06:15.879 --> 00:06:20.560 pointed out on your own Twitter, guys like Alex Smith and Donovan McNabb, 100 00:06:20.560 --> 00:06:25.000 who I think are all of good but not Hall of fame. And then 101 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:28.160 you look at what guys what Sean Payton has accomplis without Drew Brees, And 102 00:06:28.199 --> 00:06:30.600 it's a no brainer here. I mean Andy Reid is by far ahead of 103 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:34.680 him, and that it hurts as a Bronco fan to watch that. I 104 00:06:34.720 --> 00:06:38.639 agree, I don't think they belong in the same sentence. Then I don't 105 00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:41.240 mean that in a malicious way against Sean. But if you look at the 106 00:06:41.240 --> 00:06:46.839 resume Andy Reid is put together outside of Patrick Mahomes, that's really the story 107 00:06:46.879 --> 00:06:50.120 that needs to be told when he ends up inevitably in the Pro Football Hall 108 00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:56.480 of Fame because he's put together so many elite seasons in terms of from an 109 00:06:56.519 --> 00:07:00.920 offensive perspective, from a head coaching perspective, he succeeded with so many players. 110 00:07:00.959 --> 00:07:03.519 Alex Smith led the league in passer rating before Pat Mahomes took over in 111 00:07:03.600 --> 00:07:08.040 twenty eighteen. And again I don't know. I would put Alex Smith in 112 00:07:08.040 --> 00:07:11.120 the Hall very good. I would definitely put McNabb there, But the resume 113 00:07:11.439 --> 00:07:15.439 again without the elite Hall of Fame first ballot. Patrick Mahomes quarterback for Andy 114 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:19.120 Reid speaks for itself. And we've seen a number of other head coaches who 115 00:07:19.160 --> 00:07:24.279 have done well other places, whether as an offensive coordinator, as a positional 116 00:07:24.319 --> 00:07:28.680 coach, and they're not tied specifically to one quarterback. We saw Bill Walsher, 117 00:07:28.879 --> 00:07:31.120 we saw Mike Hombren do it, Andy Reid obviously, Mike Shanahan, 118 00:07:31.480 --> 00:07:35.319 Bruce Arian, Sean McVay. I would very much like to see Sean Payton 119 00:07:35.399 --> 00:07:40.439 step into that same category along with those guys. He has an opportunity to 120 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:45.040 do it this year. Well, it's interesting that the comparison to Andy Reed 121 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:46.839 I mean, based on the fact that both of those guys are now in 122 00:07:46.879 --> 00:07:53.160 the same division here in AFC was do you feel as though when we look 123 00:07:53.199 --> 00:07:58.160 at Sean Payton, he's signed a five year deal, he's going into year 124 00:07:58.240 --> 00:08:03.000 four excuse me of that deal? Do you feel as though he is coaching 125 00:08:03.480 --> 00:08:09.680 for his legacy in his time here here with the Broncos based on all the 126 00:08:09.720 --> 00:08:13.759 information that you're presenting, Absolutely, absolutely, And Sean Payton has put together 127 00:08:13.879 --> 00:08:18.600 one of the best head coaching resumes in NFL history, of borderline Hall of 128 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:24.160 Fame resume. Given the success that he had in New Orleans despite the reality 129 00:08:24.160 --> 00:08:26.839 that he had Drew Brees in his back pocket, We're talking about a guy 130 00:08:26.879 --> 00:08:31.480 who put together I believe it was twelve top ten scoring seasons in fourteen years 131 00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:35.440 in New Orleans. So his resume there does speak for itself. But he 132 00:08:35.559 --> 00:08:39.639 has the opportunity to separate himself from some of the other coaches in NFL history 133 00:08:39.639 --> 00:08:43.639 who have had success predominantly with one starting quarterback. He has a chance to 134 00:08:43.679 --> 00:08:48.000 have a fresh start here in Denver. Didn't work out last year with Russell 135 00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:50.480 Wilson, and I would put that a lot more at the feet of Sean 136 00:08:50.519 --> 00:08:54.159 Payton than I would rust. So it's one season. I don't think that 137 00:08:54.360 --> 00:08:58.200 anybody should be overreacting to one season that wasn't horrible. Eight and nine is 138 00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:01.240 not a horrible measure. But the standards are high here in Bronos Country. 139 00:09:01.360 --> 00:09:03.360 They should be well yeah, And I think you go back and you look 140 00:09:03.360 --> 00:09:07.240 at what Sean Payton has accomplished in sixteen years in the regular season. You 141 00:09:07.240 --> 00:09:09.840 look at it one sixty ninety eight. That's a sixty two percent winning percentage. 142 00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:13.600 It's very, very good. And he's a winning record in the playoffs 143 00:09:13.679 --> 00:09:16.799 nine and eight, but only one super Bowl in that timeframe. And he 144 00:09:16.960 --> 00:09:20.879 is somebody who covets the legacy portion of the Hall of Fame. And I 145 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:26.240 talked to some current general managers and former general managers over the course the last 146 00:09:26.279 --> 00:09:28.039 couple of weeks, and they all said the same thing. It's like, 147 00:09:28.080 --> 00:09:31.879 there's no way Sean Payton gets a Hall of Fame uless he wins another Super 148 00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:35.399 Bowl because of the taints to the legacy with both bounty Gate and Pillgates. 149 00:09:35.440 --> 00:09:39.320 So you know, I think that I think he desperately wants to win, 150 00:09:39.799 --> 00:09:45.919 but it just it felt like that instead of trying to devise something that worked 151 00:09:45.960 --> 00:09:48.639 for Russell Wilson. He felt like he was going to Jettis and everything, 152 00:09:48.679 --> 00:09:50.759 get everything the way he knows how to do it, the way he wants 153 00:09:50.799 --> 00:09:54.159 to do it, and try to win in that regard. Is that fair 154 00:09:54.200 --> 00:09:56.480 to say or am I overreaching? No? I don't think you're overreaching at 155 00:09:56.480 --> 00:10:00.600 all. I mean part of being a great coach is being able to tailor 156 00:10:00.639 --> 00:10:03.799 an offense or a defense to the strengths of your players. And the way 157 00:10:05.120 --> 00:10:09.000 that he misutilized I don't even if misutilizes really the right word. The offense 158 00:10:09.200 --> 00:10:13.320 was a Sean Payton offense, and it's not his fault that he inherited a 159 00:10:13.399 --> 00:10:18.840 quarterback whose skill set was the opposite match for his system. So I think 160 00:10:18.879 --> 00:10:20.960 that we can give him a little bit of grace if he's able to start 161 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:26.759 fresh here in twenty twenty four and moving forward. I don't know that he 162 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:30.720 needs to win another championship to end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, 163 00:10:30.960 --> 00:10:35.720 but he does need to leave his mark by leading Denver to success and 164 00:10:35.080 --> 00:10:39.080 to showcase that through the strengths that he's cultivated over a very long career. 165 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:45.080 The offense needs to operate the way a Sean Payton offense should operate. And 166 00:10:45.159 --> 00:10:48.360 I don't care about the style. What we need is for them to produce 167 00:10:48.399 --> 00:10:54.639 points. But but Ryan, what does that success actually translate too? I 168 00:10:54.679 --> 00:10:58.120 mean, are we talking you know, winning eight games a season, winning 169 00:10:58.120 --> 00:11:03.240 ten games a season, making a playoff, you know, making a late 170 00:11:03.360 --> 00:11:09.159 run, and the playoffs where you may go in as a four seed and 171 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:11.639 then you're right there at the precipice, but you lose by a field goal? 172 00:11:13.039 --> 00:11:16.960 Is that the measure of success for Sean Payton and this Broncos team. 173 00:11:16.519 --> 00:11:18.720 I don't think it should be for him. I don't think it should be 174 00:11:18.799 --> 00:11:22.000 for any of us here in Broncos Country. I don't think anybody listening right 175 00:11:22.039 --> 00:11:24.879 now would be happy with that. And I think the scenario that you just 176 00:11:24.960 --> 00:11:30.159 painted is a pretty realistic one. At the same time, there is an 177 00:11:30.200 --> 00:11:33.320 element of luck and there is an element of the defense coming to deliver in 178 00:11:33.360 --> 00:11:37.919 a sense that if we took the twenty twenty two Broncos defense and we put 179 00:11:37.919 --> 00:11:41.120 it together with a twenty twenty three Broncos offense, I think we make the 180 00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:45.440 postseason. I don't think we win a championship. So if the defense gets 181 00:11:45.519 --> 00:11:48.759 sharper and part of that falls at the feet of the head coach, even 182 00:11:48.759 --> 00:11:52.159 though he's an offensive winded head coach, there's going to be an opportunity to 183 00:11:52.159 --> 00:11:56.200 make some movement. But we got to get to the postseason first, right. 184 00:11:56.759 --> 00:12:00.240 I think most fans, if you said right now, we're going to 185 00:12:00.279 --> 00:12:01.480 be a wild card team that's going to go one and done, but we're 186 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:03.480 going to be better than last year, none of us are going to be 187 00:12:03.480 --> 00:12:07.960 satisfied with that. So just to build on what it is that you're saying, 188 00:12:07.039 --> 00:12:11.080 because the standards are as high as they are here in Denver, that's 189 00:12:11.120 --> 00:12:13.799 not going to cut it. I'd like to see a conference championship appearance and 190 00:12:13.879 --> 00:12:18.759 you like this year, you know, Gus like, I mean, it's 191 00:12:18.799 --> 00:12:24.440 not happening this year. To formulate the question, I couldn't even find a 192 00:12:24.440 --> 00:12:26.879 way to formulate the question to that, But I'll just say it like this. 193 00:12:28.279 --> 00:12:30.919 I think if we made the playoffs based on what we're about to face 194 00:12:30.919 --> 00:12:33.919 this year, I think everybody would be satisfied with that. I think making 195 00:12:33.919 --> 00:12:37.559 the playoffs every year all law Morety Schottenheimer and then going nowhere is not going 196 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:41.000 to satisfy Broncos fans. Fair. That's fair, that's fair. I mean, 197 00:12:41.000 --> 00:12:43.759 we all want the same thing. And you know, to your point, 198 00:12:43.879 --> 00:12:46.279 Ben, as far as all the grief you get for hating on Sean 199 00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:50.480 Payton, I don't see it as hate either. All three of us are 200 00:12:50.559 --> 00:12:52.519 rooting for him to succeed. All three of us would like to be in 201 00:12:52.559 --> 00:12:56.679 New Orleans next year covering the Super Bowl and having the broad ess of the 202 00:12:56.679 --> 00:13:00.159 super Bowl. That realistic, I don't think so. But we're all pulling 203 00:13:00.200 --> 00:13:03.240 for him to succeed. It's just a matter of seeing it development well. 204 00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:05.919 Yeah, And I think that's the thing like for me, I don't want 205 00:13:05.919 --> 00:13:07.919 to speak for Nick, but I think we're on the same mindset, is 206 00:13:07.919 --> 00:13:11.600 that we're just trying to contextualize things and sometimes that that requires looking at the 207 00:13:11.639 --> 00:13:16.159 negatives in order to overcome them. We would, you know, we're not. 208 00:13:16.519 --> 00:13:18.799 There's a whole radio station here in town for hating on the team. 209 00:13:18.879 --> 00:13:22.440 We don't. We don't do that here. We're we're we're trying to be 210 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:24.840 optimistic. And I realize that I've been pessimistic in a way, but it's 211 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:28.960 it's also about, Hey, look I see these problems, and I don't 212 00:13:30.000 --> 00:13:33.960 see the solution there can somebody either shake me out of my argue with me 213 00:13:33.039 --> 00:13:37.440 and shake me out of that. You want me to shake you physical metaphor 214 00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:41.360 you know you still want that, Martinelli. So that's why I'm keeping it 215 00:13:41.440 --> 00:13:43.600 right here with it arms reach, so I can just yank it back. 216 00:13:43.240 --> 00:13:46.600 But but I mean that that's what I want. I want someone to metaphorically 217 00:13:46.600 --> 00:13:48.440 shake me out of this, or or or hard evidence me out of this. 218 00:13:48.559 --> 00:13:50.559 And so far no one's been able to do that. They just complain 219 00:13:50.600 --> 00:13:54.799 that I'm a hater and move on. Yeah, well said, Well said, 220 00:13:54.840 --> 00:13:58.399 Well, it's kind. It's time for the Broncos to prove you wrong, 221 00:13:58.480 --> 00:14:01.799 to prove me wrong. Maybe both of us could be a I don't 222 00:14:01.840 --> 00:14:05.120 know. I wouldn't say that Nick is necessarily optimistic. He's probably a little 223 00:14:05.159 --> 00:14:07.639 bit more optimistic than you and I are. I'd like to channel that a 224 00:14:07.679 --> 00:14:11.720 little bit. We'll see Nick's knick superhero name is Captain Optimism. I didn't 225 00:14:11.720 --> 00:14:13.519 mean to ruin your secret identity there, buddy, but but I'm gonna let 226 00:14:13.519 --> 00:14:16.000 the world know. Hey, Royan, we always appreciate the time with you. 227 00:14:16.039 --> 00:14:18.320 We'll have you back on here soon with the next set of data to 228 00:14:18.360 --> 00:14:22.120 you know, to tell us how to turn this thing around right. Pleasure, 229 00:14:22.120 --> 00:14:22.240 Ben, appreciate your time.