Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Do podcast. I'm your host, Korey
Evans. Thanks for listening. This week show is about post NFL Draft value
risers. I have five names who I think are winners from the free agency
and NFL Draft period, and we should be targeting accordingly in our dynasty leagues.
Next week I'll do the opposite that being five post draft value followers.
But for this content focusing on players we should be targeting who have benefited from
the NFL Draft in particular. Before I get to that quick reminder about my
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That is the requirement. Fairly cheap entrance point though compared to others in this
industry. Let's get right to it. Post NFL Draft value Risers, Naji
Harris comes to mind right off the bat. He's twenty five years old.
Nagi enters twenty twenty three as Pittsburgh's on question RB one. In fact,
the Steelers didn't add any backfield competition via free agency or the draft. That
leaves jaln Warren Anthony mcfarling's junior Jason Huntley on the depth chart behind Harris.
Let's rewind shift our attention to Naji as a rookie in sophomore for projections as
to what he could become year three. So twenty twenty one is a rookie
a three oh seven twelve hundred seven rushing line, three point nine yarcs per
carry, seventy four sixty seven three as a receiver, ninety four targets.
We pretty much put a staple on Nagi becoming in RB one annually after that
breakout first year campaign in the NFL. Let's fast forward then to twenty twenty
two as a sophomore. There was some regression and a dip inefficiency two seventy
two ten thirty four seven on the ground, three point eight yards per clip
and forty one two twenty nine three as a receiver fifty three targets. I
don't think we'd be having this conversation about Nagi being a polarizing RB one RB
two if Warren for the receiving downturn in production. The rushing output was pretty
much on par despite a dip in rushing attempts. When you could pare twenty
twenty one over twenty twenty two, it's the seventy four receptions down to forty
one that should catch your eye. Hopefully that bounces back in year three,
But that's the one main call out I found is that the receiving production is
what led to Nagi being a bust or disappointment last year. Warren did in
dcunt into Nagi's workload in twenty twenty two as a rookie himself. He went
seventy seven three seventy ninety one on the ground in twenty eight for two four
teen as a receiver with thirty three targets. Yet Jalen doesn't pose a huge
threat to Harris or passing once again, three hundred or more collective offensive touches
in twenty twenty three Harris is six one two thirty two, while Warren checks
in at five eight two fifteen. Fairly notable size difference between the two running
backs, and each serves their own role respectively. Is Warren going away?
No, He's going to be a change of pace. If not complimentary Piece
two Nagi moving forward. But I found interesting a nugget information this offseason was
that Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator, Matt Canada apparently and not allowed rookie quarterback in twenty
twenty two Kenny Picketts to call hot reads to the line of scrimmage. If
true, defensive coordinators probably took note and likely responded by stacking the box against
Nagi and run or blitz situations. Hot reads meaning if Kenny Pickett picks up
a blitz he's going to mark winners receivers is a hot read a quick route
to throw him too. If that's not allowed and Canada have the trust and
pickets to do so, then defenses could have easily realized that pick it could
have audible to a run or even opposing teams recognizing that Kenny Pickett did not
have the trust to air it out down field, which led to less verticality
more predictability in terms of what Pitts doing on offense. All that being said,
investing or roster and Harris an RB one or even RB two and dynasty
is a bet on volume over efficiency. He had doublege at Rushes and all
but one contest last year. He can't say that about too many running backs
in today's NFL. If Naji is utilized more as a pass check, which
I alluded to or forecasted, like he was as a rookie in twenty twenty
one, then we could see him return premiere value in twenty twenty three,
or at least reassert himself as a no doubt RB one candidates. I will
admit that Jalen Warren is a must own handcuff for anyone who already rosters Naji
Harris. But in terms of post draft value risers, one of the back
fields that stands out clearly is that of Naji Harris with the Steelers. Traylan
Burke's twenty three years old, eighteenth overall pick out of Arkansas in twenty twenty
two compiled a thirty three four forty four one rookie log across fifty four targets
for thirteen and a half years Pertetch in eleven games played underwhelming compared to the
pedigree, but he's six to two twenty five a four point five five four
thirty three inch vertical ten foot two inch brock jump. Those are solid,
not spectacular, testing measurables. However, with the size, speed profile,
he does project as an AJ Brown or Julio Jones type impact of a player,
perhaps at a ceiling not as high, but career arc could be reminiscent
of the names I just mentioned. Burks might have the easiest path to wide
receiver one status on any NFL roster. At this point in time, the
Titans receiver depth consists of Nick Westbrook, Kyle Phillips, Chris Moore, Racy
McMath, seventh rounder rookie Colton Dowell. Now Signing DeAndre Hopkins could change that,
but not drastically, because Burkes could easily still be the two in the
pecking order. Quick side note for context and a timeline. When I'm recording
with a beam Memorial Day weekend, I am constructing this episode right after the
news broke that the Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins, So at this point in time,
I don't know where he's going to sign It's just hypothetical that if you
went to Tennessee, it could lower the ceiling or role of trailing Burk's in
the process. But we'll find out soon enough. But at least wanted a
preface that information that I do not know where Hopkins is signing if he were
to do so over this weekend or early on during the week you're listening to
this show. Outside of Derrick Henry, Traylan's main competition for valing him should
beat Higo Konqua, who posted a thirty two four fifty three rookie line with
forty six targets last season, good for fourteen point one yards protetch. The
good thing about Burke's what we saw as a rookie is that he heated up
in November December of last year in a matter most for Fantasy, the playoff
stretch. His most notable performances were seven four, one eleven at Green May,
four for seventy Versuscinnati, and four for sixty six verse Dallas. Nothing
that's going to win you a week, Yet the potential or showcased and his
snapshare target share all increased exponentially compared to where he started as a rookie.
When he was operating as a fifth or sixth receiver. It was laughable back
then, and if you bought low, congratulations, and it should serve as
a friendly reminder that patience is required for any rookie prospect with highdraft capital,
mid or late. It takes time to acclimate. It's exactly what happened with
Burks in Tennessee. Trailing's versatility to be featured on and the rounds or versus.
Shouldn't it be overlooked either. He had a four or forty seven rushing
line in twenty twenty two, and that should improves a sophomore based on the
pure volume and availability that I keep bringing up now. Early OTA reports indicate
that Burks appears leaner, faster, quicker, etc. This time, and
you're gonna hear a lot of praise, buzz and overreaction when it comes to
practice reports. Burks himself in a press conference said that he is moving quicker
because he can breathe. And don't forget that he's someone who suffers from asthma,
so that's music to our ears that he himself is more confident in his
current body condition. I would treat Burkes as a wide receiver. Two with
upside for a long term wide receiver rue on dividends. A lot of its
potential is tied to the Titans quarterback situation between Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis,
which is a work in progress and or competition, but in terms of a
post NFL draft value riser trailing burks t a t is in that category conversation,
no doubt about it, and will cost you, at the minimum my
first round pick in twenty twenty three or twenty twenty four to acquire services.
JK Dobbins twenty five in December, former second round pick in twenty twenty House
States, who made a name for himself as a first year pro after delivering
a one thirty four eight oh five nine rushing log and round to a six
ye opper carry average, stellar production and efficiency. Dobbins then missed All twenty
twenty one with a torn aco along with other ligament damage which delays returned to
the field in twenty twenty two. When JK was back last season, he
was eased into the Ravens running back mix and proceeded to end the campaign in
a high note. Collectively Dobbins right Orsterday ninety two five twenty two efforts for
five point seven yards per carry in eight games played. He was really dominant
down the stretch and JK reminded us of his RB one sealing and fantasy last
December with a string of strong showings. They were as follows fifteen for a
buck, twenty in a touchdown, thirteen for one twenty five, twelve for
fifty nine, and seventeen for ninety three To close out the regular season.
Baltimore didn't add much to its running back room this offseason. You have you
dfa key to mix you who I talked about on a recent episode as a
solid stash. That was the most notable contribution that leaves Gus Edwards Justice Hill
behind Dobbins on the Ravens deck chart. Considering Dobbins and his injury history,
this is a very promising sign encouraging for his twenty twenty three outlook usage,
workload, you name it. The ball is in Jk's court to handle a
line share of the Ravens running back workload. And what's another interesting layer of
strategy or even perception for this year is Ravens new offensive coordinator Todd Mockin.
He should bring what worked at Georgia to the NFL, which is likely to
result in more passing game usage for Ravens running backs. Dobbins has only twenty
five catches on his pro resume to dates. Not that he can't catch the
ball, it's just not his go to skill set or top traits. He's
a no nonsense early down rusher. But if that element of his roles expanded
in terms of receiving output twenty twenty three or beyond, then there is a
legitimate path to RB one productor JK Dobbins, and he's a clear post draft
value riser. Time for a quick break. I'll be back with two more
names that you should be targeting in your dynasty leagues via trade or in a
startup draft because they are post draft value winners rising in my ranks accordingly.
That next player is, in fact, Tae Kwon Thornton, wide receiver,
New England Patriots, twenty three in August. He seemed like a reach in
last year's draft as a second round pick out of Baylor. The Patriots were
clearly intrigued by his athletic profile. At six two eighty two four point two
eight forty thirty six and a halfick vertical ten foot tenix broad jump. Those
are out of this world jump out of the gym type numbers, not to
mention solid collegian output. He went sixty two ninety eight ten for fifteen point
three yards pertect in twenty twenty one with Baylor. New England signed Juju s,
Mitchuster, Mikeasecki as free agents this offseason as potential threats to Tai Kwon's
role. That being said, the Patriots receiver room is one of the worst
in all of football. DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, six round rookie k
sham Boute yet again another possible DeAndre Hopkins landing spots. Yet Hopkins, for
most of January through April or even May at this point has been linked to
Buffalo and Kansas City where he ends up is anybody's guests. Just wanted to
bring that context at the table that if Hopkins does sign of the Patriots,
it lowers the appeal of Tai Kwon in some way shape reform, But quite
honestly, he's I'll get to right here. New England's coaching staff and front
office brass are reportedly extremely high and confident in Thornton his services about expecting a
big second year leap out of him after a twenty two forty seven two rookie
log only forty five targets eleven point two yards Pertetch in thirteen games played last
year. I think most of the pointing is the eleven point two yards Pertetch.
He's a vertical field structure with big playability that needs to be expanded.
Matt Jones needs to target him more down field and we should see that in
twenty twenty three. Early OTA news is that Taekwon bulked up a bit.
Don't forget he played at one hundred and eight two pounds twenty twenty two,
So if you had a bit of muscle or clean body fat to his six
two height and again that four point two eight forty thirty six and a half
inch vertical ten foot tennis Brock jump, we're looking at a legitimate game changer
the position where New England really only has possession type hideouts in Juju DeVante Parker
who's aging, and Kendrick Bourne, who's a replacement level player at best.
So in terms of what I would be willing to give up for Tai Kwon,
someone on your roster who is perhaps aging yet provides immedia production or in
terms of draft capital, a third, A third and twenty twenty three at
thirty twenty twenty four is fair game and I'm looking to buy on the short
window to capitalize before the tai kwon thward in hype train is off to the
races and then last button at least. How about IRB Smith Junior. He's
twenty five in August, slid under the radar as a free agent while signed
with the Tinnati for a one year deal worth one point tipy five million up
to two million in incentives, low risk, higher reward for us in fantasy
letlon for the Bengals in real life. Earth spent three seasons with Minnesota after
being a second round pick back in twenty nineteen. He never surpassed thirty six
receptions, three hundred and sixty five yards, receiving five touchdowns, forty seven
targets, or twelve point two yards per catch in a single NFL campaign.
He missed all twenty twenty one with a Torminiscus had eight games played in twenty
twenty two due to an alien ankle injury. The Bengals lost Haying Hers to
Carolina, which leaves IRV Smith in a position to become Joe Burrows tight end
one ahead of Drew sample Devan ASIASI Va Tanner Hudson on the team's current duck
charts. For a projection, consider that Hearst compiled a fifty two four fourteen
two receiving line in twenty twenty two with sixty eight targets a fourteen percent target
share, mind you, across thirteen games played. That's the same role IRV
Smith is assumed to take over. Sign me up if I am weak at
tight end. IRV Smith could be the cheapest solution. He's not going to
break the bank at term. The cost should faction no more than a third
round pick outside of tight end premium, pushing perhaps a late second even at
that price point. I like to bet on IRV Smith's town on Alabama what
we saw years and years ago, and hopefully he's now a featured aspect of
the Bengals passing attack. Now, sure you have tons of competition for volume
in the form of Jamar Chase te Higgins Teller Boyd will assume Joe Mixon returns
without competition being added though via the draft and what was deemed a load of
tight end class IRV is quietly one of the biggest risers in fans fool fall
that nobody's talking about a clear cut tight on one candidates that is expected to
take over in a trench roll of Hayden Hurst, who again posted a fifty
two four fourteen two line with Joe Burrow last year. It's so obvious of
a role for Smith that it's being overlooked and almost ignored in some sense.
Capitalize on that perception and roster rooms are tight on one. If you need
to help or a solid tight end two, look to buy low for a
fourth, but I think a third is the fairst price point for buyer and
seller that will do it. Hope you all enjoy this week's show. A
quick recap of post NFL draft value risers. We have Knaki Harris, trailing
Burkes, JK. Dobbins, Taekwon Thornton and Herb Smith Junior. Thank you
all for listening. Don't forget take advantage of the last few days slash week
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have a great Memorial Day weekend. See you