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I think teamsoft Landing is dead wrong. I think labor hoarding in the US

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among other factors, while also just
base effects. Unlike some gold bugs out

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there who will remain nameless, I
have been warning people for more than a

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year that the base effects would mean
that the reported CPI numbers would come down.

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It would be harder for them to
keep increasing at that pace absent more

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money printing, which we haven't had. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival

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00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:34,399
Network, where you get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to

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00:00:40,359 --> 00:00:45,320
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00:00:45,439 --> 00:00:56,079
gift. Financial Survival Network now more
than ever. And welcome you are listening

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to watching the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your own carry love. Well,

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is there going to be a soft
landing, a hard landing, or a

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moon landing, a lunar landing?
That is the question. And hey,

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maybe maybe if they replaced our policy
makers with AI, we would never have

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another recession. What do you think
about that? Well, Lobo Tigra's on

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with us now and make sure you've
go over to his site Independent Speculator dot

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com. Hey, great to have
you back, Lobo. So as you

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refer to them prequel Team soft Landing, they seem to think that everything is

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fine, We'll just have a brief
slowdown and then you know, inflations under

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control. Uh maybe the war and
Ukraine will end at some point in the

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not too distant future. So what's
what say you? Well, there's a

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lot of ways I can go with
that. Carry Um, I want to

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come back to the AI think because
I think there's actually something very important and

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investment related that people should keep in
mind, not just ideological. But to

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answer your question, I think Team
soft Landing is dead wrong. I think

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labor hoarding in the US among other
factors, while also just base effects.

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Unlike some gold bugs out there who
will remain nameless, I have been warning

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people for more than a year that
the base effects would mean that the reported

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CPI numbers would come down. It
would be harder for them to keep increasing

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at that pace absent more money printing, which we haven't had. So I'm

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not surprised by the circumstance. I
will say that I am surprised. I'll

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go on the record with you here, Karrieus. I am surprised by how

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quickly and how deeply the reported inflation
numbers have come down. And this matters.

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And I know, dear audience out
there, I'm sure you're as skeptical

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as I am of government statistics.
You know there's lies, damn lies statistics.

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Said, then the ultimate is government
statistics, right, I get that.

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I'm numbers. That's where you know, the comics traders and lima traders,

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they trade on these numbers. And
as long as we mistakenly refer to

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their trades and their futures contracts as
the price of gold or whatever, it's

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gonna push those prices around. And
so we can't ignore that data even if

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we disagree with it. So what
I'm saying, though, is for these

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and a number of other factors,
I think the US economy is much weaker

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than it looks. The global economy
is as weak as it looks, and

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maybe more some. I mean,
we don't have to worry about the hidden

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weakness than the global ecoman Just look
at China and U and the EU,

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where inflation pop back up again,
by the way, including the all imployment

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still called core inflation pop back up
instead of them down. So I think,

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you know, I'm sorry to say
this, and you know me and

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any of the your audience that has
washed our past interviews, and if not

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go back and check them out.
I'm not the arm waiving. This guy

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is falling, you know, head
for the Idaho Bunker now, sort of

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guests that you might have on sometimes, you know, But I really think

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that the brown stuff is going to
hit the fan. And it's it's not

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someday that you look at main street
cheerleaders on Wall Street and they're like,

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you know, even the most barrish
of them is thinking, well, maybe

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recession in twenty twenty four. I
think that the weakness that has massed in

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the US economy will be revealed this
year. And I'll either be flat out

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wrong on this carry I'll be right. If I'm right, it will make

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a big difference to our investment decisions. Well, I'm inclined to agree with

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you because I believe we've been in
a recession since inflation spiked, but because

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inflation's understated, the GDP deflator,
which is basically you deduct inflation from GDP,

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has been askew, and real growth
has been decidedly negative. And look,

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anecdotally, you go around any city
in the United States, the number

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of homeless people's increased. That's generally
non people or fronts and all that.

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Yeah, I mean, like right, every time we see I remember,

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just yesterday I tweeted about the lower
inflation in Canada, and basically all of

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my Canadian followers are all like,
what, you know, that's not what

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I see when I go in the
store or when I go anywhere or do

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anything. My cost keep going up. Actually, this is this touches on

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something that's a big pet peeve of
mine. You know, I'm writing about

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this now, so your audience gets
ahead and start on this. The whole

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word disinflation shouldn't exist. It should
be stricken from everybody's vocabulary. There's really

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no such thing. It refers to
a decrease in the increase in inflation.

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It's still increasing, right, I
mean, you know, And to put

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this word on it, people bandy
it around disinflation. It sounds like deflation.

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It sounds like a good thing.
It's not a good thing. It

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is a somewhat less bad thing,
right, it's and but that word is

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out there, and everybody can talk
about disinflation like things are getting better.

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It doesn't mean things are getting better. So pet peeve of mine, and

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it relates to what we're talking about. And it's part I think of a

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deliberate um, you know, messaging, massaging, manipulation, if you will,

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of the populace. It's you know, it's propaganda. It's just like

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transitory inflation, both tested and proven
in action until it was disproven in reality.

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But it was a great talking point
and it's uh, it's just a

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talking point with a purpose. It
wasn't just like, oh they chose the

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wrong word. Oh they made an
honest mistake. It's a completely dishonest,

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unmistaked. It was deliberate at you
know, push the herd in the direction

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the powers that be wanted it to
go. News speak. Hey, it's

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just like in the Great Depression and
they said, prosperity is just around the

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corner. Right. That was the
talking And let's not forget whip inflation.

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Now, yeah, I was,
you know, I was giving away win

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buttons. Somebody sent me an email
requesting a win button. You know,

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I bought a few of them on
eBay and that was Gerald Ford's a big

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contribution to inflation. Liz if Hey, maybe they should be wearing it at

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the Federal Reserve. Put that over
their doorstep, right because Milton Friedman said

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it best, nobody will ever say
it better. Inflation is first and foremost

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a monetary phenomena. And what does
that mean, Lobo? Well, actually,

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right now, it's important for those
of us who make that quote always

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in everywhere a monetary phenomenon, to
recognize that M two has been shrinking,

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you know, the fact has been
reducing its balance sheet. And I'll I'll

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admit more than I thought they would. They've stuck with that more than I

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thought they would. And okay,
again, government numbers, I get it.

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But still, you know, those
are the numbers that people trade on.

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They put input into the equation.
So if you're going to say when

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when the M two is increasing and
the money supplies increasing, oh, this

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is inflationary. You can't then turn
around and say what it's decreasing that it

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doesn't matter. It's just a government
lie, right, you know, it's

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it's that same number. So I
mean, I mean this matters for us

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right now. And it's it's interesting
to me that in that environment where we've

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seen a significant decline, Okay,
it's not like healthy, happy, hunky

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dory. But it's a significant decline
in M two and here we are at

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gold still around two thousand bucks and
outs. It's really quite strike the appetite

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out there for gold and the face
of headwinds like that at higher rates and

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the FED tightening all this stuff,
you know, and there's people out there

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pulling their hair out because gold isn't
higher. It should be three thousand,

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or it should be whatever. But
the fact that it isn't down when it

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seems like the powers that be are
throwing everything they can at it, I

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think it says a lot about the
strength of the demand out there, or

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the perception of the reality. Despite
the prop again and the spin that we're

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talking about. There's people out there
that get it. Yeah, yeah,

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absolutely, let's not forget. Yeah. M two is down. But the

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emergency facility to keep the banking system
afloat every week for the past month has

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been hitting records record draw down,
which is really another way of calling it

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QE because basically they just take all
their crappy securities, drop them off at

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the discount window, and they get
alight. Let me let me jump in

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on that, because I think that's
really really important. Carry you just put

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your finger on something that I think
the mainstream is either ignoring deliberately or just

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doesn't get. But I think it's
very very important. You know, the

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powers that be, they're all telling
us everything's fine. The regional banking crisis,

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it was just you know, concentrated
and a few poorly managed banks.

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You know, the banking system is
sound, Everything is fine. Nothing to

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see here. These are not the
droids you're looking for. Move on,

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right, But this facility that you're
talking about, what the Fed did that?

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That's not just a band aid and
a kiss on the boo boo.

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That is an absolute crisis response that
basically bail everybody out without bailing them out,

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Like we're not giving you just the
bailout, but we're allowing you to

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redeem your underwater paper at par Right, that's a bailout. And it wasn't

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just a few banks, it was
everybody. It was across the board.

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Like that was an absolute emergency response. You know, it seems to have

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worked for the time being, right, you know, kick the can down

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the road. But but don't let
them kid you, don't don't let anybody

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tell you that that was a nothing
Burger that nothing really happened here. That

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was a major and I think part
of our earlier conversation will reveal Team soft

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landing to be wrong. You know
when when when we get our payday carry.

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I can't tell you when. I
can't promise when. I think things

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generally will be inclined to fall apart
over the next quarter or two. But

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don't forget that there's still this crisis
mode out there. They've been, you

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know, like tamping down these fires
left and right. That doesn't mean there's

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no more fire out there. You
know, if the FED breaks something else,

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and that could be happening already,
Like the next thing that breaks,

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he's probably already broke it. We
just haven't realized what it is yet.

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Like the guilt thing in the UK
and so on. Something happens and until

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it until it goes vertical, until
it really breaks in a visible way,

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and then you look back and you
say, oh, yeah, well we

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should have seen that coming. Or
you know, I think we're in that

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process now, so you know,
we'll see I'll either be right or I'll

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be wrong, and it will be
like forever or someday it will be this

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year. I think either things deteriorate
just on a progression or the FED breaks

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something else. I don't incline more
to the latter. I think we're more

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likely to see a sudden wake up
moment, smell the napalm, and Wall

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Street starts to panic. Yeah,
I love the smell and napalm in the

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morning's. Let's also not forget about
China, the so called engine of growth

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in the world. Now, you
talk about government statistics the ultimate lies.

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I mean, you can't believe if
they tell you this guy is blue,

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you definitely can't believe them, because
you very rarely see a blue sky in

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China. It's usually gray, dark
gray, or weird colors from all the

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chemicals being pumped into the atmosphere.
But by all accounts, they're housing market

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is doa ever. Grand A just
closed its doors permanently. I mean they

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are on zombie life support for the
past six months, and every other major

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real estate company probably is going to
file follow a suit as well. And

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that's like, yeah, maybe it's
good for flight capital coming to the US,

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right, because they've been so far. That's a pretty slender silver lining

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there carrying and they're really caught between
the rock and the hard place, because

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I mean, Beijing very deliberately clamped
down on the excesses in the real estate

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market because you know, it was
going crazy. They had used it to

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stimulate it got out of hand and
created all kinds of never mind the ghost

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cities, but these insolvencies, you
know, unsound business practices written large.

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Okay, so they pull it in, they clamp down on it. Fine,

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it makes sense. But you know, if that's what your growth depends

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on, then you choke it off. What's gonna happen. You know,

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there's people who are saying, oh, well, look, China's last GDP

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report six point six percent. That's
great. But even in the mainstream there's

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people who are recognized, well,
wait, not so fast. A year

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ago, they were still in a
lockdown. So it was expected that the

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GDP numbers or lies or whatever they
are, you know, the numbers that

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we get, you know, would
be higher in the first half of this

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year because of those base effects.
But that goes into reverse in the second

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half of this year, and even
mainstream people are worried that this six point

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six percent now is nowhere near enough
for China to hit it's five point five

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percent by the end of the year. So yeah, yeah, I mean,

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I agree, I think that's very
worrisome. And bring it back home

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a bit. You know, we
mentioned earlier how Team soft Landing is cheering

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here in the US, but it's
more evident around the world that there's trouble.

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China is you know, the eight
hundred pound guerrilla of economic trouble right

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now. And I think it's a
mistake for you know, Americans to think

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that somehow the US economy can be
just fine when the rest of the world

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goes to heck in a handbasket.
Yes, we have more you know,

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food and oil and gas internally than
a lot of other countries. We depend

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less on our trading partners than many
other more vulnerable blocks, but that doesn't

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mean we're fully independent. And despite
everything that's happened after the New the New

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Iron curtain has started going up,
and despite the post COVID deglobalization, it's

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still a global economy. Yeah,
and you know, you could say,

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okay, well, you know,
the US economy only depends or the sp

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five hundred. I think only a
third of the stocks are exporters. Well,

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but if that third goes to zero, not to zero, if that

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third crashes, it still hurts,
and the entire economy it is resistant to

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external harm, but not immune,
and it's a mistake to conflate those two.

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You're exactly right. Uh yeah,
we haven't decoupled from the global economy

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yet. And those trends, I
mean in China, you see parts of

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Shanghai, you know the videos escape
where literally there's all these stores that were

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booming free pandemic are shut down and
whole areas of Westerners have left. Large

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chunks of Westerners have shut down and
left the country. So yeah, I

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think it used to be when the
US sneezes, the rest of the world

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got a cold. Now China sneezes. I think the rest of the world

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gets pneumonia. And that's just more
more evidence to what you said that the

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hard landing is imminent and the Panglossian
view of those out there you know that

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everything happens for the better isn't true. Everything doesn't happen for the better,

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especially when it comes to a weakened
global financial system that had a near existential

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event in OA No. Nine and
we've done nothing to change it, you

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know, still the same system.
So takeaways financial survival network, what can

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we do to be helpful to people. You know, my fellow goldbugs don't

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like it when I say things like
this, but I actually think that in

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the nearest term, the very nearest
term, the appearance that teamsoft Landing is

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right is barish for monetary medals.
You know, if the safe haven demand

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goes down, if the people who
have been thinking, oh, well,

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you know, maybe we should consider
allocating you know, just a little bit

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to gold. You know, if
that stops, that's material. You know,

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maybe central bank buying makes up for
it. Maybe we're at two thousand

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dollars gold plus or minus because of
central bank buying, despite Team soft Landing

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appearing right. But you can't count
on the central banks for anything. I'm

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sure your audience doesn't mean to tell
them, you know, not to trust

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central banks. So if the goldbugs
hopes are all pinned on this infral banks

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are going to save us, you
know, that's that's not a great thing

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to put a lot of weight on. So yeah, I don't trust them.

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And therefore, you know, even
if they do keep buying, even

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if bricks are headed for goldback currency
or whatever, you know, that's a

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multi year thing. It doesn't tell
us that right now, they're going to

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help us right now, and that's
important in the faces. So you know,

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I'm I'm not one of these people
that says every day is always the

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best day to buy gold, bye
bye, bye bye. I think right

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now it is actually prudent to hold
back golden gold stocks to wat for potential

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weakness in the nearest term. You
know, people are tired of buying opportunities,

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but I do think that's what it
would be. You know, from

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everything that we've said is interviews so
far, that the nearest term pullback would

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be before the next leg upwards.
So I'm not saying, you know,

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dump all your gold stocks forget gold, you know. And I'm not a

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drop gold guy. I'm just trying
to be honest with your audience here instead

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of just being a cheerleader and promising
it can only go up. I think

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there is a significant risk of near
term downside in our favorite in our favorite

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medal. Now here's the funny thing. Sorry, I know you've got a

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question there. Let me just say. The funny thing is that silver might

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actually outperform in this landings themes.
Right then, Hey, that's great for

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industrial metals, and the silver's industrial
side has you know, even the most

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diehard silver bugs recognize that silver's industrial
side has become a tailwind when you know,

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they're building more solar panels and all
this stuff. So you know,

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oddly enough, the very thing that
could whack gold in the nearest term could

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boost silver. And last time I
look, silver was over twenty five bucks

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an hour, which has bubble getting
over recently. So that's interesting. But

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then reality comes back, you know, and if I'm right about that,

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you were right about that in the
recession, you know clearly that's going to

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whack industrial metals, and I think
that will happen by this fall, you

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know, So so be very wary
of saying, oh, it's all safe

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to get back into copper or lithium
or whatever your favorite industrial metal might be.

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Silver has gone up a low of
seventeen fourteen announced on the Comax.

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It's at twenty five, so it's
up nearly fifty percent at the same time

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gold is up, but you know, not nearly so much. You know,

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silver has been the performer here and
maybe that's the trend for the future.

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People get mad at me because I
talk about silver's greater industrial side.

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I've been dubbed Darth silver and all
that because of this changing use case.

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But you know, you know,
the goal is to make money, not

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to be religious about our favorite metal. And if the goals to make money,

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you can't ignore the data and just
just look at the charts. Silver

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is tracking copper more than gold this
year and wild chief soft landing seems right.

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That's a fine thing. You know, when the session deniers give way,

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which I think they will, I
think that's going to whack silver more

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than gold. You know, this
is I'm not trying to beat up on

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anybody's favorite metal. I'm not trying
to cheer lead anybody's favorite metal. I'm

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trying to provide the most straightforward you
know, reporting an analysis of market trends

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that I can Yeah, I'm in
complete agreement with you. Hey, when

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there are liquidity events in the market, in the stock market, it always

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hits the metals. We've seen that
over and over and over again. So

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if there's the event that you're talking
about coming up, the hard landing realization,

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if that turns into a liquidity event, metals are going to get slammed

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in the short term. And uh, you know, metal stocks are also

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going to get slammed and eventually that
they bounce back nine perfect example. This

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is actually another important thing because it
really is worth stressing and thinking about dear

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audience, because you know, goldbugs
and I'm a gold bug, but most

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of us we have the skepticism or
the mainstream, and that feeds into an

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assumption that they're doing something wrong right, and that feeds into this. It's

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like, let me put it this
way, what year does do most gold

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bugs not think Wall Street's about to
crash? It's every year and okay,

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some years it does crash, but
most years it doesn't. So even if

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we get this recession and the recession, denying goes away as I think it

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will, that is not the same
thing as saying that markets must crash.

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And markets are very forward looking.
The markets may see the recession and morally

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because they think the Fed and the
Congress will come to the rescue. So

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it is not saved to assume that, even if we're right about the economy,

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that therefore mister market should do the
rational thing. He often doesn't,

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you know, as the saying goes, you know, remain irrational longer than

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you can remain solvent. Yea,
So exactly what I was fighting point here

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my rant, and I just I
just think this is important because I get

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an email or call or something like
if it's not weakly, it's certainly monthly

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of the markets are going to crash. What should we do. Shouldn't we

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sell and get out before the market
crashes and then buy back in at lower

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prices or something like that at some
point that might be the right thing to

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do, but nobody knows in advance. And like I say, you know,

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if goldbugs think that way every year
and they sell and they sell their

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gold stocks because they think the market's
going to crash and then it turns out

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that it goes the other way,
you've made a huge mistake. You've you've

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either you know, jumped, you
know, bailed on winning plays too early,

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or you've realized unnecessary losses. So
I'm not I'm not trying to tell

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anybody that there's not going to be
a crash this year. I think it's

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possible, but I think it's a
mistake to assume that you know that there

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will be, And certainly it's worth
being careful about in your actual investment decisions.

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Absolutely, and just reminds me of
the Yogi bearras yogiism that you know,

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prediction is very hard, especially when
it's about the future. So remember

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that it's difficult to predict the timing. People. You could follow cycles and

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make a lot of money, but
following a cycle is different than predicting the

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future and actually how things are going
to turn out. Cycles, it's a

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trend and if you can cast them, they're great. But yeah, or

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you see it's in motion, right, It's it's a very different thing to

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00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,200
say, hey, look here's this
is trending upwards, I'm going to go

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a long, or this is trending
downwards, I'm going to go short.

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That's very different from saying this is
the bottom, right, or this is

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00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,759
the top, and that's an entirely
different level of parel exactly. All right,

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00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:53,039
Well, hey, we appreciate your
coming on. As always logo and

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00:24:53,519 --> 00:25:03,799
I urge everybody to go to the
a site Independent Speculator dot com and the

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00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:10,799
link is in the show notes to
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.

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00:25:10,799 --> 00:25:12,279
Just click it you'll get through.
While you're there, sign up for

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00:25:12,319 --> 00:25:17,839
your free newsletter LOBO. Always a
pleasure. Thanks for stopping by. Thank

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00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:22,880
you, Carrie, good conversation.
Thanks for listening to Carrie Lenz's Financial Survival

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00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:27,440
Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial

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00:25:27,519 --> 00:25:33,119
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