WEBVTT 1 00:00:13.800 --> 00:00:25.480 New Eastern Europe podcasts. What about Russia? This question is often asked in 2 00:00:25.519 --> 00:00:31.640 connection with the social protests in Belarus that started on August ninth, twenty twenty. 3 00:00:32.280 --> 00:00:36.240 After all, Moscow and Minsk are linked by economic, military, and 4 00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:42.520 social ties. They even form a union of Russia and Belarus. Dysfunctional but 5 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:48.600 still. The journalist Hanna Lubakova drew attention to the changing way of presenting the 6 00:00:48.679 --> 00:00:55.079 events in Belarus by the Russian media, but also to the ambiguous perception of 7 00:00:55.119 --> 00:01:15.239 these events by the Russians Uska. Immediately after the elections, the Russian media, 8 00:01:15.439 --> 00:01:19.599 also outlets controlled by the Kremlin, reported on the protests in such a 9 00:01:19.680 --> 00:01:23.159 neutral way. I'd say they at least talked about rape by the police, 10 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:26.319 So, of course, at least for the first week, this was such 11 00:01:26.359 --> 00:01:33.359 a strong sign that the coverage was pretty okay. However, when Lukashenka turned 12 00:01:33.359 --> 00:01:37.760 to Putin and asked him for help, the story changed and the Russian media 13 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:42.120 became less subjective. I think it's quite tough for the Russian media to show 14 00:01:42.159 --> 00:01:45.799 that the people protesting are brutal, because after all, they're not. People 15 00:01:45.799 --> 00:01:51.200 are attacking, attacking policemen because they don't do it, and so for me, 16 00:01:51.319 --> 00:01:56.439 the materials I saw retain little objectivity. However, let's remember that RT 17 00:01:56.920 --> 00:02:01.799 Russia today works almost completely without any obstacles, such as the journalists were detained, 18 00:02:01.840 --> 00:02:07.680 because both Belarusian and foreign journalists were detained all the time. Russia today, 19 00:02:07.799 --> 00:02:10.599 on the other hand, simply weren't interfered with and they were able to 20 00:02:10.639 --> 00:02:16.800 work completely out in the open. So they showed protesters attacking that something was 21 00:02:16.840 --> 00:02:22.120 happening there, that there weren't any peaceful demonstrations. They showed that when someone 22 00:02:22.199 --> 00:02:25.000 just walked out on the road, obviously this is a sign of radicalization. 23 00:02:27.159 --> 00:02:30.879 From the other side, there's a different take on things, and Russian society 24 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:34.840 has different views on these protests, but there are a lot of positive ones, 25 00:02:34.879 --> 00:02:38.000 at least regarding opinion about the protests in Belarus. I heard that many 26 00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:44.919 Russians support the protesters, not Lukashenka and not this narrative, not the narrative 27 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:52.800 of Russia today Russia. As the protests continue, the question of Russia's role 28 00:02:52.919 --> 00:03:00.199 in shaping Belarusian politics becomes increasingly important, as underlined by Alexandra, a journalist 29 00:03:00.280 --> 00:03:13.560 from Bielsat's television Rosa. Russia, which was feared to be the decisive factor 30 00:03:13.599 --> 00:03:16.520 in Belarus and continued to be a very important factor, turned out to be 31 00:03:16.599 --> 00:03:22.840 limited. One could expect Vladimir Putin to support Alexander Lukashenka in this situation. 32 00:03:23.240 --> 00:03:28.159 He is sending a team of his journalists to fix the propaganda apparatus after dozens 33 00:03:28.199 --> 00:03:32.439 of journalists were fired from Belarusian state television. He talks about granting alone, 34 00:03:32.639 --> 00:03:37.199 although only a third of these funds have been paid so far, and all 35 00:03:37.199 --> 00:03:39.360 these funds are to be used to pay off debts to Russia. When it 36 00:03:39.400 --> 00:03:44.120 comes to military aid for Lukashenka, thank god, we haven't seen it. 37 00:03:44.560 --> 00:03:49.080 Vladimir Putin only said that in the events of protests he would send policemen from 38 00:03:49.159 --> 00:03:53.919 Russia to Belarus. We do not see firm declarations of support for Lukashenka. 39 00:03:53.280 --> 00:03:57.639 But Putin did not speak out and did not say that there was a Western 40 00:03:57.719 --> 00:04:02.360 conspiracy in Belarus and we will do anything to help our greatest friend. It 41 00:04:02.520 --> 00:04:08.319 is the case that other people of secondary importance have spoken about helping Lukashenka. 42 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:12.080 The second thing is that Putin did not pay out much money to stabilize the 43 00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:15.600 Belarussian economy. Thirdly, that Prutin did not send the army and military aid 44 00:04:15.959 --> 00:04:19.399 or help with his policemen for now. It can be seen that Russia is 45 00:04:19.439 --> 00:04:24.480 also tired of Alexander Lukashenka, but would like him to be replaced by a 46 00:04:24.519 --> 00:04:28.439 person who would be led by Russia. Russia wants to keep control of a 47 00:04:28.480 --> 00:04:31.680 Belarus and Lukashenka is not the right person for it. The main thing is 48 00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:40.399 control of a Belarus. Whether it will take place through Lukashenka or without him 49 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:44.519 is not so important. As I said, Russia is tired of Lukashenka. 50 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:48.600 He is very problematic, is not much under control and toxic. He is 51 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:54.279 not liked SoC On the other hand, the Russians are not able, thank 52 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:58.360 God, to create a pro Russian force in Belarus. Russia's plan is more 53 00:04:58.439 --> 00:05:01.560 or less defined as can be from the statements of Russian politicians. Even from 54 00:05:01.600 --> 00:05:09.000 the statements, they want Lukashenka to quick so that it does not look like 55 00:05:09.040 --> 00:05:14.560 a revolution in the bust, which is one They require to reform the constitution, 56 00:05:14.720 --> 00:05:17.279 which would change the political system in Belarus towards a greater role of the 57 00:05:17.279 --> 00:05:23.279 parliament and party and the Russians probably want to create several pro Russian parties that 58 00:05:23.240 --> 00:05:28.199 govern Belarus and carry out the credits interest. On the other hi, you 59 00:05:28.240 --> 00:05:31.279 can see Kashenka does not want to yield and is trying to turn this constitution 60 00:05:31.399 --> 00:05:36.120 the form required question should his advantage is. The second thing is that Belarussian 61 00:05:36.160 --> 00:05:42.000 society the former does not like, also does not want to create pro Russian 62 00:05:42.000 --> 00:05:59.720 party and we are not seeing Russian just yet. What chest what? Russian 63 00:06:00.319 --> 00:06:06.839 scientist Darya's Faina emphasizes that there is a big discrepancy between the impression of Kremlin's 64 00:06:06.839 --> 00:06:27.680 support for Alexander Lukashenko and real help. At first glance, Russia's position and 65 00:06:27.759 --> 00:06:33.199 relation to the situation in Belarus is simple and categorical opposition to the protesters support 66 00:06:33.240 --> 00:06:38.519 for Lukashenka. This is true, but not everything is so clear cut. 67 00:06:39.680 --> 00:06:44.600 The first thing that influenced the formulation of the Kremlin's attitude towards the protesters in 68 00:06:44.639 --> 00:06:49.800 Belarus was the Russian internal situation. Let us recall the protests have been taking 69 00:06:49.839 --> 00:06:56.519 place in Kabarovsk, Russia since July eleventh this year. The outbreak of protests 70 00:06:56.600 --> 00:07:01.000 resulted in the arrest of the governor of the Kabarovsk Region Serge Fertigol. However, 71 00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:05.720 it quickly became clear that the protests were anti government in nature. People 72 00:07:05.759 --> 00:07:12.680 are tired of corruption and uneven allocation of state budget funds between regions. Against 73 00:07:12.800 --> 00:07:16.240 this background, the protests in Belarus were seen as a threat to power in 74 00:07:16.319 --> 00:07:23.319 Russia, and the Kremlin's afraid of the solidarity of Russian and Belarusian protesters and 75 00:07:23.399 --> 00:07:28.560 afraid that the idea of changing the political elite will be supported in Russia too. 76 00:07:29.839 --> 00:07:32.879 Let us remind ourselves that Putin has been in power for twenty years. 77 00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:40.079 He plans to carry it on after the recent constitutional reform. Secondly, Russia 78 00:07:40.160 --> 00:07:45.480 is very uninterested in the implementation of the Ukrainian scenario in Belarus. For the 79 00:07:45.519 --> 00:07:49.720 past twenty years, the total value of Russian investments is four point two six 80 00:07:49.839 --> 00:07:56.759 million dollars. Let's not forget about the Russian military facilities and cooperation in the 81 00:07:56.800 --> 00:08:01.199 military industrial complex. The Kremlin, on the other hand, sees the advantages 82 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:07.519 of the situation. In recent years, Lukashenka has no longer acted as a 83 00:08:07.560 --> 00:08:11.480 trusted ally of the Kremlin. He constantly tried to intensify the dialogue with the 84 00:08:11.480 --> 00:08:16.920 West, and he gave a vase of answers during negotiations on strengthening integration within 85 00:08:16.959 --> 00:08:22.279 the Federal State of Russian and Belarus, which the Kremlin thinks, although it's 86 00:08:22.360 --> 00:08:26.920 not a Soviet Union two point out, is similar to it. Thus, 87 00:08:26.959 --> 00:08:33.960 the Kremlin saw the possibility of replacing Lukashenka with a loyal and compliant persona. 88 00:08:33.320 --> 00:08:39.879 That is why Putin has such calm rhetoric and such a tragic situation. During 89 00:08:39.919 --> 00:08:45.039 the meeting with Lukashenka in Sochi on September fourteenth this year, the Russian President 90 00:08:45.120 --> 00:08:50.440 said, we are in favor of the Belarusians to calmly and through dialogue resolved 91 00:08:50.480 --> 00:08:54.879 the situation in their country and make a joint decision on how to continue working 92 00:08:56.600 --> 00:09:01.559 Later. He also added that Moscow will fulfill all the obligations toward Belarus, 93 00:09:01.799 --> 00:09:05.720 because obligations must be fulfilled regardless of who's in charge of the country. The 94 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:11.519 one point five billion dollars loan that Russia has granted the Belarus is not just 95 00:09:11.600 --> 00:09:16.480 an act of support for Lukashenka. There are almost two thousand, five hundred 96 00:09:16.519 --> 00:09:20.559 companies with Russian capital in Belarus, and in a sense, Russia supports its 97 00:09:20.559 --> 00:09:26.919 own capital and be aware of the level of corruption in Russia and the patterns 98 00:09:26.960 --> 00:09:31.679 by which money returns to the source. Despite the fact the Putin has the 99 00:09:31.679 --> 00:09:35.840 image of a man who does not leave his own people in politics, everyone 100 00:09:35.039 --> 00:09:54.360 thinks only about themselves. Gretzky from Saint peter's Burg State University says, it's 101 00:09:54.480 --> 00:10:09.480 all about business, not about sympathy nor sentiment. First, I would like 102 00:10:09.519 --> 00:10:13.559 to point out that relations between the Kremlin and Lukashenka have always been difficult and 103 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:18.720 proceeded in an atmosphere of mutual distrust. The Belarussian dictator often officially supported Putin, 104 00:10:18.960 --> 00:10:22.399 but he never made any concessions on matters that were delicate for Moscow, 105 00:10:22.600 --> 00:10:28.360 such as participation in integration projects, the creation of a Russian military based on 106 00:10:28.399 --> 00:10:31.600 the territory of Belarus, and the question of Crimea and other such matters. 107 00:10:33.320 --> 00:10:37.159 When the Russian authorities tried to put pressure on Lukashenka, he either managed to 108 00:10:37.159 --> 00:10:41.279 find alternative sources of financial support or to reach a compromise that was favorable to 109 00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:46.559 him. After the presidential elections in August, the protests spread to most strata 110 00:10:46.600 --> 00:10:52.559 of Belarussian society, even employees of enterprises that are wholly state owned, such 111 00:10:52.559 --> 00:10:56.120 as Grodna Azot, the municipal tractor factory and many others, took part in 112 00:10:56.159 --> 00:11:01.519 the weekly strikes. It is obvious that tension in society will not go away 113 00:11:01.600 --> 00:11:05.159 until the political system is changed. Lukashenka's rule is coming to an end, 114 00:11:05.399 --> 00:11:09.559 and it can even be said that in August the countdown to the end of 115 00:11:09.639 --> 00:11:13.080 his term in office began. A nightmare scenario for the Kremlin in this situation 116 00:11:13.240 --> 00:11:18.080 is the further development of the protest when even more people take to the streets 117 00:11:18.120 --> 00:11:22.360 than Lukashenka leaves the presidential palace under pressure from the community. Russia, however, 118 00:11:22.639 --> 00:11:26.720 has always been interested in weakening Lukashenka, but to such an extent that 119 00:11:26.759 --> 00:11:31.399 it retains full control over what is happening in Belarus. The protests after the 120 00:11:31.399 --> 00:11:37.440 August elections weakened him greatly. Currently, Lukashenka is slowly losing control of the 121 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:41.200 situation in the country. Under these conditions, the main priority is to carry 122 00:11:41.200 --> 00:11:46.639 out a soft and controlled transformation of the Belarussian regime closed to influence from the 123 00:11:46.679 --> 00:11:52.279 West. An ideal situation for Moscow would be such constitutional reforms that would slightly 124 00:11:52.320 --> 00:11:56.879 strengthen the opposition's influence on the decision making process in Minsk, but would leave 125 00:11:56.000 --> 00:12:01.960 Lukashenka in power. In this situation, the position will simply become an additional 126 00:12:01.039 --> 00:12:07.279 tool of putting pressure on Lukashenka in conflict situations. This is also confirmed by 127 00:12:07.279 --> 00:12:11.159 the fact that despite mister Putin's political support for Lukashenka, because he recognized the 128 00:12:11.200 --> 00:12:16.840 elections in Belarus and promised to send Russian policeman there if necessary, the Russian 129 00:12:16.840 --> 00:12:26.960 President supported the idea of constitutional reform, which ultimately does not benefit Lukashenka. 130 00:12:28.240 --> 00:12:33.080 According to Pyotr Rutkowski, the director of the Belarussian Institute of Strategic Studies, 131 00:12:33.519 --> 00:12:39.360 a key factor for the Kremlin is to maintain control over the situation, with 132 00:12:39.720 --> 00:12:48.919 or without Luko. The Kremlin wants this to be under control. It is 133 00:12:48.919 --> 00:12:52.639 fed up with Lukashenka. While the worst option for them is the uncontrolled a 134 00:12:52.720 --> 00:12:58.159 sentence to power by anyone else, They would prefer Lukashenka to leave, but 135 00:12:58.320 --> 00:13:01.200 that would be under control, so they can either push their candidate through or 136 00:13:01.240 --> 00:13:05.200 at least have time to prepare to develop a new strategy. How they are 137 00:13:05.279 --> 00:13:09.440 to deal with this new power whatever it may be, there is almost no 138 00:13:09.559 --> 00:13:13.759 chance that pro Western power will come to power in Belarus. So here it 139 00:13:13.879 --> 00:13:18.240 is not a serious risk for the Kremlin. On the other hand, the 140 00:13:18.320 --> 00:13:41.440 Kremlin would like to prepare for various other eventualities in the eventual Diplomat and one 141 00:13:41.559 --> 00:13:48.399 of the leaders of the Opposition Coordination Council emphasizes that the protests are not directed 142 00:13:48.480 --> 00:14:13.159 against Russia, but the mold and attitude devots must be in jo If we 143 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:16.519 look at it from a pragmatic point of view, Russia takes fifty percent of 144 00:14:16.559 --> 00:14:20.919 Belarus's trade. It is the main supplier of energy in Belarus. We are 145 00:14:20.960 --> 00:14:24.559 bound very tightly. On the other hand, the European Union, which is 146 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:30.480 the second most important economic partner, is a particularly important partner from the point 147 00:14:30.480 --> 00:14:35.559 of view of investments in technologies and further development in Belarus. Belarus is in 148 00:14:35.600 --> 00:14:39.039 the middle and you have to understand that these protests and demonstrations are not anti 149 00:14:39.120 --> 00:14:45.039 Russian, they are not anti Western, they are pro Belarussian. Belarussians are 150 00:14:45.080 --> 00:14:50.279 fighting for their rights to be implemented on the territory of their own country. 151 00:14:50.440 --> 00:14:54.519 As of today, Russia takes a position that is incomprehensible to us that it 152 00:14:54.559 --> 00:14:58.279 supports a leader who has not been elected, who breaks the laws drastically. 153 00:15:00.039 --> 00:15:03.519 There were so many examples that it makes no sense to even talk about them, 154 00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:07.480 because every day something happens that evokes a critical reaction in Belarussian society. 155 00:15:09.320 --> 00:15:13.600 But Russia continued to support him. Although we have recently heard voices in the 156 00:15:13.639 --> 00:15:16.879 Russian state press and from various officials that the violence that has been going on 157 00:15:18.000 --> 00:15:22.879 against people did not correspond to the real situation. This is also maybe a 158 00:15:22.960 --> 00:15:26.559 little voice. It is important to us to have good relations with the EU 159 00:15:26.600 --> 00:15:31.200 and Russia. We come out of pragmatism in these relations. Certainly Belarussians want 160 00:15:31.279 --> 00:15:35.559 it all. Sociological research shows it. On the other hand, it should 161 00:15:35.559 --> 00:15:39.519 be noted that the number of Belarussians who opt for a closer relationship with Russia 162 00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:45.279 has recently significantly decreased. At the beginning of the year, it was sixty 163 00:15:45.279 --> 00:15:50.559 percent of Belarussians who stood for close ties with Russia while maintaining the country's independence. 164 00:15:50.960 --> 00:15:54.000 As of today, even yesterday they released a data of minus twenty five 165 00:15:54.039 --> 00:15:58.080 percent. Also, from the strategic point of view, Russia is making a 166 00:15:58.120 --> 00:16:03.639 mistake. I think that Kremlin analysts who give such information that is worth betting 167 00:16:03.639 --> 00:16:08.519 on Lukashenka and now making a mistake. A division is taking place. We 168 00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:14.360 are in the middle when Belarussians start criticizing the Russian authorities very sharply that they 169 00:16:14.399 --> 00:16:17.159 do not really see that something is black, but say, no, it 170 00:16:17.279 --> 00:16:22.399 is white. Maybe a little tiny parts are black, but it's actually white. 171 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:26.159 Every normal person sees that there are no intermediate colors anymore. It's black, 172 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:32.320 It's definitely black. Such violence against people. Also from Russia's point of 173 00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:36.159 view, In my opinion, the mistake is being made and it is important 174 00:16:36.200 --> 00:16:40.960 that the Russians understand it now so as not to repeat the scenarios that unfortunately 175 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:45.159 have recently occurred in Russia's relations with other countries. But this is Russia's decision, 176 00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:49.440 It is the choice of the Russian authorities. We are simply signaling what 177 00:16:49.639 --> 00:16:55.840 processes are starting in Belorussian society. Also, these two curves were a closer 178 00:16:55.879 --> 00:17:00.200 relationship with the EU for a closer relationship with Russia. They have crossed each 179 00:17:00.240 --> 00:17:03.720 other. It will also depend on further steps from the EU and Russia. 180 00:17:03.880 --> 00:17:07.359 But I am sure it is in the Belarian interest. There is no division, 181 00:17:07.440 --> 00:17:11.400 There is no backward facing or returning facing someone else. It is about 182 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:37.079 being a Belarussian state and having pipulations with ward look as a former British media 183 00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:52.920 correspondent in Eastern Europe perceives the situation in a similar way, the Union state 184 00:17:53.119 --> 00:18:00.279 exists more on paper than in reality, and it's not really comfortable with sort 185 00:18:00.279 --> 00:18:06.559 of Beneluck's arrangement or anything like that. The main interest the Kremlin has in 186 00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:12.839 not having a disorderly transfer of power in Beelrous. They don't want a national 187 00:18:12.960 --> 00:18:18.039 uprising in Lukashenka escaping the country in a helicopter, because that would set a 188 00:18:18.119 --> 00:18:22.680 very bad example to Russians from the Kremlin's point of view of how to get 189 00:18:22.759 --> 00:18:26.240 rid of a regime that's run out of steam and run out of ideas. 190 00:18:26.960 --> 00:18:33.279 But nor do they want to see the opposition in Belarus crystallize into an anti 191 00:18:33.359 --> 00:18:37.440 Russian movement. At the moment, this is a pre democracy movement, not 192 00:18:37.480 --> 00:18:41.599 a particularly pro European or pro Western or anti Russian movement, but that could 193 00:18:41.680 --> 00:18:45.240 change, and if the Kremlin is seen as propping up Lukashenka too much, 194 00:18:47.039 --> 00:18:52.359 then they will begin to be the subject of the opposition's ayre, and so 195 00:18:52.519 --> 00:18:56.240 there's a dilemma there. And what Putin is trying to do at the moment 196 00:18:56.359 --> 00:19:00.079 is to buy time. He wants, i think, to bog the opposition 197 00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:06.599 down in constitutional discussions and at some point, not now, but perhaps early 198 00:19:06.720 --> 00:19:11.640 next year, move Lukashenka side and replace him with someone less toxic, but 199 00:19:11.720 --> 00:19:25.640 who will basically preserve the security political economic arrangements that see Russiamy. The ongoing 200 00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:41.680 political crisis is increasingly affecting the economy of Belarus est Otsovistia's who designative Belsberge. 201 00:19:45.480 --> 00:19:48.400 Of course, these events had an impact on the Belarusian economy. The most 202 00:19:48.440 --> 00:19:53.200 immediate effect of the repression by the authorities was the cutoff from foreign financing. 203 00:19:53.799 --> 00:19:59.599 Belarus needs to spend around three billion dollars annually on foreign debt repayments, and 204 00:19:59.720 --> 00:20:03.640 Russia promises to pay out borrow one and a half billion, according to media 205 00:20:03.680 --> 00:20:07.519 reports, but so far Russia has granted a loan of five hundred million. 206 00:20:07.039 --> 00:20:11.920 This is very little for the economy of Belarus. All this results in a 207 00:20:11.000 --> 00:20:15.720 reduction in the reserves of foreign exchange, which in the medium and even short 208 00:20:15.799 --> 00:20:18.759 term may threaten the stability of the Belarusian ruble. This is the first effect. 209 00:20:19.240 --> 00:20:23.799 The government has no legitimacy. The government has a very bad international opinion, 210 00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:27.720 so it was deprived of foreign loans, and Russia is also not very 211 00:20:27.799 --> 00:20:33.440 keen on giving these loans. The second thing war postponed is silent sabotage. 212 00:20:33.519 --> 00:20:40.039 Due to public dissatisfaction plus government repression, the authorities fire as citizens the most 213 00:20:40.039 --> 00:20:45.039 active workers who are hard to replace. This significantly lowers the quality of enterprise 214 00:20:45.119 --> 00:20:52.599 management and secondly increases the risk of failure, that is, loss making. 215 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:57.960 Stato and enterprises will not be even more loss making and make various failures such 216 00:20:57.960 --> 00:21:03.240 as those we see Gorodna Azot, but not only that, this will all 217 00:21:03.319 --> 00:21:07.279 become more frequent. Thirdly, silent sabotaged by the private sector will deprive the 218 00:21:07.319 --> 00:21:11.759 economy of tax revenue. The most important effect will be the reduction of payments 219 00:21:11.880 --> 00:21:17.680 social payments so called schools, hospitals, infrastructure, and also the payment of 220 00:21:17.720 --> 00:21:19.799 foreign debt. For now, I do not see that the authorities, for 221 00:21:19.839 --> 00:21:25.480 example, limit the payment of salaries and datained enterprises. While the usual practice 222 00:21:25.519 --> 00:21:27.680 for the last twenty years there has been to fire up the printing press, 223 00:21:27.799 --> 00:21:33.319 so issuing money. This is most likely to happen in the coming months. 224 00:21:37.000 --> 00:21:47.839 Nabilations economic dies between Belarus and Russia are particularly important. As Alexandra Pabo states 225 00:21:49.839 --> 00:22:00.759 Larosi politician and egos production. It is very important for Russia that Larus always 226 00:22:00.759 --> 00:22:04.160 follows the political and economic directions set by Russia, that it would be dependent 227 00:22:04.240 --> 00:22:08.279 on Russia politically and economically. And the second thing which is important, so 228 00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:15.519 that Belarus is never pro Western, does not join pro Western structures. And 229 00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:18.279 the third thing which is important for Russia is that it is never richer than 230 00:22:18.359 --> 00:22:25.160 Russia, that it does not constitute an alternative competition for the economic and political 231 00:22:25.200 --> 00:22:30.480 model of Vladimir Putin, and in more useful and in utilitarian way, so 232 00:22:30.640 --> 00:22:34.039 that the workforce from Belarus travels and replenishes the labor force shortages on the Russian 233 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:40.160 market. If these three interest groups are guaranteed by Alexander Lukashenka, well, 234 00:22:40.200 --> 00:22:44.359 if there is a political structure or another politician who will ensure these Russian interests 235 00:22:44.359 --> 00:22:49.920 in Belarus, all the better. Lukashenka is not yet a priority. The 236 00:22:49.960 --> 00:22:53.559 game that has been presented by Russian politicians for the time being as to force 237 00:22:53.640 --> 00:23:00.440 Lukashenka to depart gradually through constitutional reform and reformatting of the political system in Belarus, 238 00:23:00.440 --> 00:23:06.160 opening up more opportunities for Russian influence. When it comes to some more 239 00:23:06.200 --> 00:23:10.559 elaborate strategies, we always think Putin has a plan, But from the last 240 00:23:10.599 --> 00:23:14.240 few months we can see that Putin is also sitting by the river and waiting 241 00:23:14.279 --> 00:23:18.559 for the enemy's corps to flow down that river. As the Chinese proverb goes, 242 00:23:22.519 --> 00:23:27.400 how long can Russia calmly observe the events in Belarus? After all, 243 00:23:27.799 --> 00:23:34.079 ordinary people, especially young Russians, follow events that may foreshadow future changes in 244 00:23:34.160 --> 00:23:49.319 their country to President put Missions attack. Can President Putin be concerned about Russia 245 00:23:49.359 --> 00:23:53.920 being infected with the Belarussian Revolution? I think so, because after the success 246 00:23:53.920 --> 00:23:59.240 of the Ukraine Orange Revolution, the Russian elita terrified that something like this could 247 00:23:59.279 --> 00:24:03.920 happen in Russia. Immediately after the revolution in Ukraine, Russia introduced restrictions on 248 00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:10.240 the activities of foreign and geos and the organization of mass assemblies. The Russian 249 00:24:10.279 --> 00:24:15.000 authorities believe that it is not much The Russian authorities believe that it is not 250 00:24:15.079 --> 00:24:18.799 so much color revolutions which dangerous as the way the media informs the public about. 251 00:24:19.640 --> 00:24:23.519 This is why, in my opinion, Putin has repeatedly strengthened state control 252 00:24:23.559 --> 00:24:29.680 over the media. Meanwhile, they advised television and the number of programs that 253 00:24:29.720 --> 00:24:33.559 portrayed the Color Revolution in a negative light only grew rapidly, and the protesters 254 00:24:33.599 --> 00:24:37.480 were often referred to as puppets. Here, in my opinion, Putin is 255 00:24:37.519 --> 00:24:42.519 repeating the mistake of his Belarussian colleague and calling the protesting workers and doctors terrorists, 256 00:24:42.799 --> 00:24:48.640 which has dramatically increased the irritation and dissatisfaction in the public. As for 257 00:24:48.720 --> 00:24:52.000 Russian society, it is strongly divided. In the assessment of the political crisis 258 00:24:52.000 --> 00:24:57.000 in Belarust, thirty nine percent of Russians consider the oppositions protests to be Western 259 00:24:57.039 --> 00:25:02.279 provocations, and almost as many believe that they were caused by fatigue from the 260 00:25:02.319 --> 00:25:07.279 prolonged rule of Lukashenka. As a rule, the former include representatives of the 261 00:25:07.279 --> 00:25:11.480 older generation of Russians whose worldview was shaped during the Soviet era. They regularly 262 00:25:11.599 --> 00:25:15.440 vote for Bhutin or the Communists, so it's no wonder that their sympathies turned 263 00:25:15.480 --> 00:25:21.240 out to beyond Lukashenka's side, because throughout the entire period after the collapse of 264 00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:26.160 the Soviet Union, Belarus was the embodiment of their dreams of an ideal socialist 265 00:25:26.200 --> 00:25:30.680 state, low prices, state guaranteed employment, clean streets and so on. 266 00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:33.400 But in August this year, for the first time they saw the wrong side 267 00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:37.720 of the Lukashenka regime, the brutality of the police, the beatings of people, 268 00:25:37.759 --> 00:25:42.440 of censorship in the media. Russian fans of Lukashenka were deeply confused by 269 00:25:42.440 --> 00:25:47.240 this. The younger generation of Russians has a different view of these events. 270 00:25:47.559 --> 00:25:52.200 They treat Belarussians and representatives of the opposition who suffer from state violence with great 271 00:25:52.240 --> 00:25:56.480 affection. Interestingly, young people get information from the Internet, and the older 272 00:25:56.519 --> 00:26:02.400 generation of Russians from television. While the number of users of social networks in 273 00:26:02.480 --> 00:26:07.920 Russia is actively growing and the number of people watching TV is gradually and decline. 274 00:26:07.160 --> 00:26:11.799 In addition, it catches an audience of people over fifty five years old. 275 00:26:11.279 --> 00:26:15.720 There is no doubt that what we are dealing with here is an intergenerational 276 00:26:15.799 --> 00:26:18.839 conflict. On one side, there are people who are shaped by the Soviet 277 00:26:18.920 --> 00:26:25.519 Union, who sympathize with the Belarussian dictator value stability in all its manifestations and 278 00:26:25.680 --> 00:26:29.279 treats changes only as a source of problems. On the other side, there 279 00:26:29.279 --> 00:26:33.480 are young people with smartphones in their hands who have no idea about life in 280 00:26:33.519 --> 00:26:37.519 the Soviet Union. For them, changes are primarily new opportunities. But I 281 00:26:37.559 --> 00:26:41.559 have left out the older generation, which is gradually leaving Putin in his regime 282 00:26:41.680 --> 00:26:45.839 one on one with a new generation that has different values and which will enter 283 00:26:45.880 --> 00:27:04.240 the political scene at some point, as is happening now in Belarusitic podcasts are 284 00:27:04.240 --> 00:27:07.039 produced by Free Range Productions.