Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step hit on stay lot far goshhot go. Here's your hosts, Jesse
Sevier and Victor Nuno Fantasy Hockey Live back once agnd to talk your fantasy hockey
needs. I am Jesse Severe of fan Tracks. He is Victor Nuno of
Diaper Prospects. Victor, how you doing. I'm doing great, Jesse.
It's been a super busy weekend with lots of new drafting and stuff, and
yeah, it's been a whirlwind. I'm trying to. I'm trying to.
I'm sure you've had this experience too, where you're on the clock and you're
trying to figure out which league you're in that you're on the clock for,
and what the settings are and who you need and what the team needs are,
and there's just been too much of that overlapping. It's hard to keep
it all straight sometimes when you think, yeah, I'm thinking you and I
are both deeply immersed. And I know we said this last episode, but
it's still true. It's still where we're living is in the middle of nine.
I'm in nine different fantasy hockey drafts, of which only three of which
are am I in active pristman. But we're administering the other ones here,
and you're even more over with Dibber prospects reports. So you're in a mill,
you know, and everything is very engaging about this. The one thing
that seems to suffer sometimes it seems to drop is every once in a while,
I end up on the clock in one of these drafts, so I'm
like, oh, shoot, I actually need to draft too. Who do
I want. I've only been thinking about this for I don't know how many
months, but I guess now I actually have to make a choice of what
rookie I want. How have your draft's been going? Do you feel good
about the results you're getting? Yeah? I think it's you're so right though.
Two, it's we send so much time setting up the leagues and worrying
that everything is working correctly. Sometimes I even I just forget or you don't
pay as much attention to how you're actually doing right. It's oh, I'll
actually have to pay attention to what I'm doing here again. Another plug for
having a COGM and one of my leagues. I teamed up with Mason Black
the ranking himself, and so that's been super fun because sometimes one of us
will have more time than the other and he'll one or the other will give
each other a short list of Okay, this is who I'm thinking, and
then that just makes it so much easier to keep someone else, help someone
else, keep you on the same page. And I'm liking that league.
It's a thirty two team leagues. It's hard to like your team all too
much because basically every time the pick comes around to you, everyone you want
is gone. But it was fun. We went Kachuk Banier's Bratt Ryan Hart,
so there were some good picks there, and then we decided in the
seventh round to finally take a goalie. Those the startup drafts were always a
little bit and it's a cap league too, so those are always a little
bit interesting because you never really know which way it's going to go. But
I've gotten a couple of leagues that I'm drafting in. I had the hard
pick, so that was both amazing but also slightly uninteresting because you're just like,
know who you're gonna take, right, It's like, not, yeah,
there's no fanfare there. It's just I'm taking the best guy here,
and you all can figure it out. After actually one of those leagues,
I did that, and for god, I had a few other picks yep,
like twenty seven picks later, but I still had to make those picks.
At some point I was like, oh, I guess there are other
guys that are interesting after Badard, Right, Yeah. In original FHL Dynasty,
I've torched my picks for a couple of years for a win now build.
So I've got picked forty six and I don't even know what's going to
happen by then. I've got some ideas, but it's just impossible to know
who's going to survive that long. But I had the Mitchkoff pick in our
common league, and apparently then I picked pick nine and picked sixteen and I
got Dala Boor Davorsky and Andrew Krystal. And apparently I like Dala Borre Davorsky
because I got him in the tidy too. I'm I'm I'm all in.
I'm a Dali bor Davorsky devotee, Victor. I'm a triple D. Yeah,
there are probably other ways that Triple D could go, but we'll leave
it at at debot. I like that, and yeah, yeah, it's
funny how that happens. You're sometimes just land in the sweet spot for certain
players, and beforehand you might not have really been that excited about them,
but then you just end up with them in multiple places and then you're the
biggest fan because you're just like, let's go, You're gonna you're gonna be
great. I know it. Yeah, there's and I think we've said this,
but there's a really obviously when you get into the draft, there's seven
guys that I feel like are that top tier, So if you fall,
I picked nine in that league, and I was like, oh, okay
that sometimes you can count on somebody to do something a little bit odd,
and I think Ryan Downey is maybe looking into that and he's gonna do something
not I shouldn't say odd. People who are thinking against the conventional wisdom,
against the green, and we respect that, but it could cause people who
I would have liked to fall. But in this one, it was the
first seven players were the first seven players, first seven players I wanted were
the first seven off the board, and even the eighth was the eighth off
the board. From me. It is what it is, Victor. People
should continue to engage. They could be a part of these tidy leagues.
Next year. They could be playing Dynasty with you and me and Mason Black
and Bryan Downey and Nate are content curator, so many cool people, so
many main characters, Simon. But to do that they need to join up
into the Patreon. Why don't you tell people about that and what they might
expect if they get in it. Yeah. Through the Patreon you can access
all kinds of cool parks about the show. One of the biggest ones is
the show notes. We write up pretty extensive show notes for every show,
so you can look at charts and graphs and you can if you forget,
you can have quick access to what people said and what kind of questions were
asked. There's all kinds of different parts between the dig and the goalie talk
and obviously the main guest of the show. That's good stuff. There's obviously
the tidy the tier Dynasty, which is is full now, but we can
get on the list and might be able to join mid season if someone drops.
Least season we only had a couple of drops, which was good and
hopefully that continues, but maybe next season as well, when we expand things
as we probably will. And yeah, obviously things like patron casts and the
prospect rank list if you're trying to figure out what to do with your draft
and who to take, and you can see who we think, who I
think is best, and also what their block shots and hits are like,
and you can organize it by four D and goalie. Those all kinds of
good stuff there. So if you want, if you enjoy the show,
you want to support us a little bit, you can check it on at
Patreon dot com slash Fantasy Hockey Life and pick which tier you'd like to support
us with premendous that will get us all set up. You can join our
discord two for free. You can join that by hitting us up at fan
Hockey Life at Victor Newnio twelve on X, or you can email is Fantasy
Hockey Life at gmail dot com. That's enough of this introduction. Let's take
a Brie break and we're going to come back with Jonathan Willis of the Athletic.
We are extremely pleased today to have back a man who knows his Edmonton
oilers from the Athletic. It is Jonathan Willis, How are you doing,
Jonathan doing really great? It's always fun to be talking hockey in August.
That's great. Yeah, absolutely, Victor and I are celebrating what we're calling
International Fantasy Hockey Draft Day or something like that. I don't think we've settled
on a name, but we started more than a dozen rookie drafts at the
exact same time, which is really unhealthy but is very engaging for this weekend.
Are you playing fantasy hockey this year? We don't expect you to,
but I'm just curious. No, I've played fantasy hockey for years. I'm
actually in a really long running keeper league, so we're oh nice. We're
very obsessive about it, as people long running keeper leagues tend to be.
That's awesome, man, Let's get to it. Let's talk Edmonton Oilers because
there's a lot to talk about here. For the team, it wasn't the
offensives fault, and you can't say, really it wasn't faults at all.
In some ways, the Oilers made it all the way to the final.
Boss at this game, it was Vegas that got him in the quarterfinals four
to two, and the team over the course of the season led the NHL
in just everything offensive. The goals three hundred twenty five goals, eighty nine
power play goals, eleven point eight percent shooting thirty two point four percent power
play were obscene, thirty six goals more than the second place team. That
hadn't happened. That big of a margin for the top scoring team hadn't happened
since two thousand nine twenty ten. I would just clicking on Hockey Reference because
I just wanted to know. There's six hundred sixty five points. Percentage was
perhaps quietly the team's best since nineteen eighty five eighty six. That was before
the last three of their Stanley Cups in that era. This was a crazy
regular season record. Unfortunately, defense not awful, but middle of the road,
and Stewart Skinner, who saved their season at different parts, had only
an eight seventy five say percentage in the final playoff series. We'll get to
the stars that brought Edmonton as far as they did in a bit, but
I'm just wondering whether last season was enough of a step forward that Edmonton folks
are looking at it and saying we're close. How do you expect Edmonton to
rate out in the coming year. Jonathan, I think the expectation last year
and maybe it was a little premature, but you heard what Connor David would
Lean dry Sidle said after the loss to Vegas Stanley Cupper Bust. That's where
they're at, the expectancy playoff success. They played a fairly close series against
the Golden Knights, but I think if you look at what happened in the
playoffs afterward, people go, we could have beat Dallas, we could have
beat Florida. If they've been able to get past Vegas and the Vegas series
in particular, there were some specific issues of deployment that I think they're going
to come back and learn from, because it turns out you can't run Nick
Buke's dad and the codycc Darnell Nurse pair against the Jack Eichel line and have
it turn out okay. They got they got blown apart, and it undid
a lot of the good that had happened over the course of the season.
All that being said, I don't think you want to overreact to a single
playoff loss, especially not to the team that went on to win the Stanley
Cup. All the offensive stuff is good, I think, well I'm sure
we'll get into it, but I think we'll see maybe a little bit of
a step back at least in terms of the power play this year. But
this should be a Cup contending team. If you look at the top ten
teams in the league, they're comfortably there in my mind, and they're in
that top five conversation at least. So the hope is that they'll go on
a longer run. If you're an Edmonton fan, yeah, and I think
that's very realistic. I think Edmonton or one of the class teams in the
league for sure. And we're going to start with the player that is.
You know, hey, I prepare I try to prepare a lot of stuff
on each one of the guys. Jonathan. I'm struggling with Connor McDavid because
what else is there to say, So let me give you some stats.
He was the number one player in Fantasy high this year. Victor and I
both thought he was at least in the top two last year, and he
is absolute top tier and he hit a brand new level. He led the
league, set personal career highs in coals and assists sixty four goals versus forty
four the year before. Eighty nine assists versus seventy nine the year before,
one hundred and twenty or one hundred and fifty nine points then versus one twenty
three, a thirty goal jump from this guy who was already at the top
four and a half shots a hit per game in twenty two twenty three average
time on ice. It was the greatest scoring season, the fifteenth overall all
time scoring season and the best since Mario Lemieux, and only Lemieux Gretzky in
one season of Steve Eiserman were ever more than what McDavid had last year.
My job is to come up with something interesting. But all I can ask
is, if this guy went from one twenty three to one hundred and fifty
three points, what's going to happen next? Is this going to happen again?
Or is it a regression you're talking about with power play? Maybe gonna
just pull it back to earth alone. I should start with my expectations of
him going into the last season. I really thought Connor McDavid was going to
have a career year, which I mean doesn't take a profit by any stretch.
But the way I thought it was going to happen was wrong because I
was looking at his five on five numbers and from two years ago, and
I thought, gee, that's below his career average. He's certainly capable of
topping three points per hour at five on five, and he was at I
believe two point six or something in that range, and he had he did
have a modest bump up at five on five we went to two point seven,
but his where scoring really took off was on that power play, which
just that power play was ridiculous. That is the most dynamite. Like I
grew up in the watching, like my real hockey fandom came in the late
nineteen nineties, So for me, the Detroit Red Wings powerplay with all those
Hall of famers was always the class of the league. This was night and
day above that which I never thought i'd ever see. And I think they'll
take I don't know. These guys are ridiculous, especially McDavid. Maybe it
holds on another year and it does the same thing again, maybe it takes
a small step back, But I look at Connor and I see a player
who at five on five can still hit a higher level than he's been at.
And you look at Edmonton's roster construction last year, some of the complimentary
pieces, especially at right wing, McDavid didn't always have the help that he
might have had in another situation. Ken Holland's done a decent job of building
up those supporting cast pieces to McDavid and dry Title. But I think this
year there's a potential for it to be even higher once you've the pleerv and
Yamamoto experiments are over. I really think we can still see McDavid hit another
year at five on five, which is frankly absurd given what he's already doing.
Frankly absurd also explains his running mate there Leon dry Title. The fact
that the Edmonton Rolers have both of these guys is just ridiculous. And when
fantasy it's these two, he actually finished the third best. But in any
way you slice it, he's right there as one of the top picks,
and we certainly expect that to continue. The last four years of Dry Siddle,
he's been in the one point three to one point six points per game
neighborhood. His ice time and power play time on ice has stayed about the
same, and he generally shoots around twenty percent with roughly three shots a game.
I don't only see any reason why he can't keep doing that scoring about
fifty goals, potting sixty to seventy assists. Last year he had fifty two
goals, seventy six assists, one point six points per game, and a
pretty decent number of hits shots. And of course the sixty two power play
points is absurd and two years left at eight point five million, so it
seems like actually hit a bit of a bargain. One thing I wonder is
maybe the competition between these two, if they try to outdo each other a
little bit, maybe he can get his goals up a little bit higher since
McDavid went so high. I don't know. That seems interesting, but I
don't know Jonathan. Again, it's the same with dry What kind of question
do we ask here? But do you think he's going to keep up towards
scoring pace or do you think that he might? Is there any reason why
he might regress a little bit and not be able to do similar to what
he did last season? I think the one real key question in Edmonton with
both McDavid and dry cycle is how often they play together, because obviously played
together on that power play, but at five on five both of them produce
more when they're on the same line. Now, that's not always good for
the team because they produce more points, but they give up more the other
way, and of course it leaves the second line a lot weaker. So
it's from a team perspective it's very debatable. But from a fantasy perspective,
well, when they play together, if you won't either of them, you
love it because their individual numbers shoot up. And with regard to dry cycle
at five on five, it's a similar story to McDavid where he's I believe
he was two point four two point five per game. I didn't write the
number down, but sorry, two point four two point five points per hour
at five on five, which is below what he's capable of. This is
a guy who can do maybe twenty percent more than that, and has done
more twenty percent more than that. So I think there's a little bit of
room to improve at five on five scoring, and maybe that will happen if
he plays a little bit more with McDavid versus anchoring his own line. I
think the overall increase in Edmonton's forward depth is going to help him this year.
But again, you just you look at how good that power player was
and you wonder if it can sustain. So for me, I'll look at
him and let's a really long winded way of saying, yeah, I expect
the status quot for dry side. Let's take a step down from immortal to
merely absolutely outstanding with Ryan NuGen Hopkins thirty seven goals, sixty seven assist,
one hundred four points in the eighty two games. Now talk about a guy
who benefited from the power play. Fifty three of those hundred four points were
on the man advantage. This also blew out of the water Nuge's career high
of sixty nine points sixty nine versus one oh four. That was not a
square in my bingo card for twenty twenty three. Nudge turned thirty at the
end of the season, so he is certainly Yeah, I guess you call
it late prime. Who knows he could last a long time. But here's
some other fun facts. Nudge led the team in forward shorthanded minutes, although
technically, according to Evolving Hockey's model, he also had the worst shorthanded defense
goals bubber policeman on the team. Maybe that just goes along with being on
the ice more. At even strength, he spent under thirty percent of his
time with McDavid and dry Sidle, so it wasn't just a matter of pair
up with those guys at even strength. This year was an outlier for sure.
Nugent Hopkins presumably is not at the age where you just expect this massive
jump in scoring to last. But I don't know what percentage of last year's
Nugent Hopkins will this year's NuGen Hopkins be Jonathan. That's a fair question,
and I think in two separate ways, because the first one is obviously the
per game production like he like you say, he blew his marks out of
the water. But the second thing for me is games played. Because Ryan
NuGen Hopkins is a guy who typically plays sixty sixty five games a year.
He was healthy all season, so that's a big part of things too.
Obviously he benefits from being on that power play. To me, he gets
a little bit of disrespect just in from punditry around the league for his power
play prowess because they're like as a product of the system. No, Ryan
Nugent Hopkins was an elite power player player before he ever step on the ice
with Connor McDavid Orlean try Cycle. He's always been a high end power play
performer. The question was what he could do at five on five, and
he also had career numbers this year at five on five and very interesting.
I was glad you pointed out where he was playing, because for a big
chunk of the year he was playing thirdline center with Glim Coston and the Tsyan
Mark and scoring in that role, which is not a bad place to be
because you're not taking on the heavy defensive minutes with those wingers and you're getting
the low end of the opposition in lineup with McDavid and dry Side leading up
the high end. So I think he's shown he can score in a variety
of situations. That being said, I fully expect him to step back this
year for the entire league in the summer. One of the things I do
is awaited three year average, and so I pulled his numbers up before I
came on here. If you look at the last three years over an eighty
two game average, he's about an eighty seven point player. And to me,
that's what I would hope for if I owned him in Fantasy, would
be the point per game mark. He will step back. He in all
likelihood, I don't have a crystal ball either. But you look at his
career production in his age and all those things, and you think he steps
back. But there's a decent shot he's a point per game ish guy,
especially if he stays out. Yeah, let's see another eighty two Ryan,
because that was amazing. Last year Zach Hyman, he had thirty six goals,
forty seven assists for eighty three points and seventy nine games, again a
point per gamer, twenty nine points above his hire career high, throw in
a hit and three point five shots a game on a team loaded with offensive
stars. Evolving Hockey's model actually counted him as having the highest offensive goals above
replacement, which tells me something about the model when he's on the team with
McDavid and dry Sidle, But it tells you he's no slouch for darn share
eighth in the NHL in offensive goals above replacement. One imagines that's not that's
partly the company he kept, and he was next to Connor McDavid sixty four
percent of the time at even strength, and Leon dry Sidle was his second
most common forward partner at forty seven percent. At the time. His defense
came out just a touch on the negative side in that model, But again,
this is not a easy team to be positive on because there were other
issues on the defense other than just had the boards were playing. Was Hyman
as good last year as these numbers indicate, and do you think you could
see a seventy point year maybe in this coming one, Jonathan, I think
Hyman's a bit of a mixed bag and compared to those numbers, so I
haven't dug into how I didn't dig into how Evolving Hockey's model works prior to
coming on the podcast. But my suspicion there is that part of what makes
Hyman look so good is that he was playing at the position of least depth
for the Edmonton Oilers. He was playing rightly, so you contrast him with
how all the other Lions did. Because I believe, if I remember right,
it's been a couple of years since I've really dug into the what's publicly
available on their model, But if I remember right, at contrasts Wowi's and
things like that, And in this case, Hyman's competing with Kylie Yamamoto,
who great player. Really liked the player, but he had a tough year
and probably shouldn't have been cast in the role he was casting. So I
think obviously the model numbers are going to be a little higher than Hyman's true
impact. It's as you alluded to there. I do think a seventy point
seasons realistic. You look at what Hyman did, I believe, and I
should have written a number down, But I believe he had fifteen goals or
some such on the power plays, the net front presence. He had a
very high shooting percentage on the power play, which normally would be a cause
for concern, But when you look at his history, whenever he's got power
play time, he's been in that five six point per game range, and
NetFront presence is a place where you tend to have a high shooting percentage because
there's lots of second chance, there's lots of redirects, things like that.
That's bike of players offense. So I think that'll stay. He waited three
year average is another number I probably wouldn't go far past, like he's a
kind of a thirty forty seventy guy. For me, if he's health the
over eighty two games that he had good health last year, whether or not
that continues is fair to ask, given the way he plays the game,
and as you point out, a lot of his secondary stats are also great.
Yeah, I think he's a very good secondary piece. Yeah for sure.
I love the way to three years. I'm a big fan of that
too. Evander Kane next guy to talk about. He's always a darling if
you look at it from a fantasy perspective when he can stay on the ice.
Three point five shots and three hits a game is just the cheap code
for fantasy leagues. The count hits and count bash sixties type point pace is
also a great asset, and obviously is getting higher up right wing minutes for
a team like this. Sixteen goals, twelve assists, twenty eight points in
forty one games was because of a bad rist injury that this year, some
years has been a little bit of trouble. He's gotten into a lot of
times it's been injury, but bad wrist injury kind of seems like some bad
luck for him, only a startling Two of these points came on the power
play, by far, the worst of his career. That's crazy for a
team like this for Kane only to get two power play points out of all
those. He ended the regular season with one point in the final nine regular
season games and managed only one assist in that Vegas series over one hundred and
twenty minutes on ice, So that was rough too. A lot of mileage
on that body because he has always played a very physical game, and this
is a lot of time. You think we'll have a bounce back season to
the right of one of those supercenters. What are you expecting from a vander
Keane that's your John. I'm expecting a big bounce back here. Yeah.
Absolutely. If you look at his numbers since he came to Edmonton through his
risk injury in November, he had fifty seven games played, twenty seven points,
thirty five assists, fifty sorry fifty two, twenty seven goals and fifty
two points over fifty seven games play. And then to finish the year he
went, he had fifteen points to twenty seven games, So that drives down
his numbers. Prior to that risk injury, he was close to a point
per game. Guy in Edmonton, I don't think he's really gonna benefit from
the power play because he's stuck on the second unit, and in Edmonton,
the second unit gets thirty seconds a mop up duty. That doesn't seem likely
to be changed to me, because that McDavid, dry Sidal Nugent Hawks trio
is too good to break up, and you want a shot in the NetFront
position down low. Otherwise Kane might be swapping back and forth with Hyman in
that slot because of Hyman's handedness. I don't think that's going to happen.
I mean, there's always injuries in whatever could happen, but it seems unlikely
to me. But that being said, he's a hard guy to get in
a fantasy hockey trade, and he goes early in the drafts because of all
those great secondary stats that you said. But to me, I think he's
a good bet to out perform that sixty sixty five point range he typically lands
in. There's a good chance to me that he's a seventy five point player
again if he stays healthy, which is a ver question. But to me,
just going back to the team level, vering off fantasy for a minute
here, overplaying him in the playoffs when he was clearly not close to one
hundred percent was part of the problem with Edmonton. But you bounce him up
and that's a big part of the secondary cast improving in Edmonton because for most
of the year they did not have a healthy of Vander Kane and it hurt
them a bit. All right, let's move on to the next guy,
Connor Brown. And there's a big unknown here with Connor. We don't he
didn't really play very much last season. He had a bit of an injury
miss this season with a knee injury and had acal surgery. He's pretty cheap
one year at seven seventy five k and he's only committed for the one year.
I'm not really sure what's going on, but I just want I'm sure
you're aware, Jonathan, but for our listeners, I find it really fascinating
that he was teammates with Connor McDavid back in the Erie otter days. And
even though he was a D plus two player when McDavid was there, he
did outpoint him. So several years older, but one hundred and twenty eight
points and sixty eight games and McDavid had ninety nine and fifty six in his
D minus one year, which is hilarious. But they have some history playing
together. There's obviously a lot of buzz about maybe he'll get some opportunity there.
In some ways, it makes sense because Brown has been a really strong
defensive player. Of course he against if you're trying to even out the line
and not let not have them get scored on so much when they're out there,
because obviously we know McDavid scores a lot, but sometimes isn't always the
best offensively. So that could certainly boost his fantasy stock if you think there's
a chance they'll play together, obviously we don't know, But what are your
thoughts do you think he did? You think Connor Brown plays a little bit
higher in the lineup or is he going to be relegated to a third line
role? And I'd be super interesting. I think Connor Brown is going to
play a top six role for the Oilers. You mentioned his seven hundred and
seventy five K cap hit, but of course with bonuses, he could hit
four million dollars. I don't, and that money is going to get charged
to next year's cap, which is why Edmonton did it this way. They
have him not a great cap dollar this year, they're going to pay the
cost for that next season because as soon as he hits ten games played,
he gets all those bonuses. So to me, they didn't make that decision
with the thought that he was going to be a third line player. They
did it with the thought that he was going to shore up the top six.
The other thing, too, is if you look at it in terms
of points per game and you extrapolate over an eighty two game schedule when he's
healthy, Brown's at forty five fifty point player. He's never actually had fifty
points in his career because he doesn't stay healthy. But he does score it
a decent clip. Like he say, he's got some real two way value.
He does have his stree with McDavid. I like that he's history with
McDavid. But to me, I'm not so much worried about whether he lands
on Connor McDavid's line because we've we've seen it in the past where a player,
as history comes in, everyone expects he's going to play with the one
guy and then he ends up somewhere else. But Edmonton's top six is fantastic,
and it's five. It's only five names deep. It's the five guys
we've talked about. I think Connor Brown is clearly the number six guy in
that rotation. It's not going to be all Ryan McLoud because he plays center.
It's not going to be a Warren Fogel in all likelihood, Although Fogels
look good when they've tried him there, I think it's gonna be Brown,
And to me, he's a good bet to set career best numbers. He
won't get a lot of power play time. He'll be in the same boat
as Evander Kane there where he might show up on the second unit, but
the second unit doesn't matter in Edmonton. But he will get a lot of
five on five time with either McDavid or try Cydle, and with a good
winger on the other end. So I fully expect him to set for best
numbers if he stays healthy. You mentioned a couple of them. We'll just
cover a couple of these depth forwards as a kind annuity, because all of
them were about twenty some games short of the full season, all of them
scored somewhere in the mid twenties. Weren't Fogel, Ryan McLeod, Matthias Jean
Mark. Are any of these guys gonna pop up to greater relevance on this
team? And if you had to pick them or order them in terms of
points scored next year, how would you go about it? Jonathan I'd probably
put McLoud first. If you look at McLeod, he as a rookie scored
one point three points per hour at five on five. Last year it was
one point nine, so that was a big jump, but his ice time
only rose slightly. So if he gets that full time third line center role,
he's going to be playing fifteen minutes a night, which for him will
if he can score at that clip, will be great. The other thing
I look at with McLeod is the splits through January first. He had eight
points in his first twenty five games. He had fifteen points in thirty two
games after January one, and he's obviously a young player. He's improving.
He's got a coach who had him at the minor league level in Jay Woodcroft,
so there's a lot there that's working in his favor. I think at
some point in Cloud's going to be a forty point player. It wouldn't surprise
me this year if he's fairly north of thirty, maybe north of thirty five.
He's never going to be a big offensive player unless he ends up playing
left wing with one of the star guys in a different role. Right now,
he seems like he's paid for that third line, more defense oriented role.
But I think he'll have the highest point production of those of that group.
If somebody else tops him, I think it'll be Fogel. Vogel has
actually played really well when he's been pushed into a winger role with McDavid or
dry Sidle. You look at the lineup this year and you've got guys like
Kane Hyman and Brown and new Jan Hopkins for that matter, All four of
those guys we've discussed injury as a concern. So there's a real chance that,
like I don't think Fogel is starting in the top six, but there's
a very decent chance he gets forty games there between those four guys all the
same time, and if he does, he could knock his career best numbers
out of the park. There's a reason they hung on to him, even
though he's got a fairly hefty cap it and they're in capell and it's because
they value what he brings. Without being said, Ian McLoud were a great
third line duo two, so you might not want to break that up.
You might want to give those those minutes to somebody like Dylan Holloway instead.
So for that reason, I think he's a good player, I don't think
he's going to get the opportunity to really shine. And finally, yan Mark,
I think he's the jack of all trades, bottom six guy. I
don't think he's going to get the same top six opportunities and the same point
production sidemaking him third in that group. Well, let's move to the blue
line, Jonathan, and we'll start with Darnell Nurse. Victor and I both
had him, Actually, both of us ranked him number nine among defensemen in
the preseason. He ended up number eighteen, and we're both very bullish on
him again this year. Being a top tier guy, he's in it for
the long haul with this team. That's for darn sure, seven more years
at nearly ten million dollars per year and in no move clause, represents easily
the greatest financial commitment on the team, given that his contract extends out past
where McDavid's in dry Saddles does at the moment. Twenty eight year old also
set career hind points last year with forty three in eighty two games. Maybe
I'm spoiled by everybody else on this team having their numbers just jumped through the
roof but let's figure as central as Nurse didn't benefit from a whole bunch of
a twos or something like that that you think maybe would have come with it.
But mind you, as individual point participation or IP went up from thirty
four to forty three percent last year, so he actually was getting a little
bit more in on some of the points being scored when he's on the ice.
Well, but only one of those were on the power play. He's
definitely outside that power play one that you're talking about. He's not getting the
love up there. The Bash stats backtracked. Bash tracked from almost three shots
per game to more like two and a half, close to three hits per
game down to fewer than two, and after two straight years over twenty five
average time on ice, he skated twenty three thirty last year. Am I
staring too hard at this and being pessimistic about Nurse's line because he is still
elite from a fantasy perspective? Obviously going to talk about another guy who's way
up in the picture now, but is he going to lead the Oilers in
minutes again this year and have roughly the stats that I just mentioned. That's
the way I look at it, and I think it's going to go.
There's obviously the potential for some of his minutes to be reduced with Mattiazakon being
on the team full time from the start of the year on that left side,
and that left side is actually really competitive because you look at the depth
guys, Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg, there are all guys that Edmonton wants
to give minutes too. So I could see Nurse taking But realistically, you
also mentioned his capit in the role he's playing on the team. How far
below twenty three minutes a game could he go. I don't think we can
really see him dropping much blow maybe twenty two at a floor. So to
me, he's a guy. He hits, he blocks, he collects penalty
minutes if he really counts penalty minutes, and he scores forty points. He
gets lots of five on five time with both McDavid and dry Citle, which
is just a function of playing a lot of minutes in Edmonton. And he's
probably the second or third choice for power Play one duty, so he's not
going to be a big factor there. He's just a very good fantasy player
who does a lot of things well. But isn't going to allow you on
the point side. Speaking of the guy who probably should allow you with points
and get all the power play time, Evan Bouchard, I feel like we've
been waiting for this moment for a long time Jonathan. But he was closer
to a thirty thirty five point guy most of the season, and then in
the last quarter his time on ice and power play time on ice went up
and he was nearly a point per game, which obviously coincided with the Tyson
Berry trade. I feel like the Oilers may have been suppressing his value a
little bit so they could get a good contract with him. He's in RFA,
still unsigned. I'm not really sure what that's going to come in at.
I think I've heard a lot of speculation of whether they should bridge him
or sign him to a really long deal. Hockey Evolving Hockey has him likely
at six years, five point four million. I think that would be pretty
good for the team. If you look at his underlyings, they're just fantastic.
Not only is he really good on the power play, but he has
steadily improved his even strength play to the point where he's actually really good both
ways. And the rest of the Blue Line, I don't think has that
same sort of quality, really good offensive creation and defensive so I think he
could be in line for an absolute monster season. Obviously, running that top
power play anybody can do really well, and he showed that he's pretty adept
at that. So what do you think is in store for Evan Bouchard?
At first? What do you think the contracts will come in at? And
then what do you think his production will be like? To me, it
would be lovely if the oilers could prioritize a long term contract for Bouchard,
but looking at their cap situation, I think that's a foregone conclusion at this
point. My expectation is he'll get a two year bridge deal, very similar
to what boen Byram Condre Miller got in that three point eight three point nine
range. To be honest, I'm a little surprised it's not done already because
those two guys set the market and that's about the amount of money Edmonton has.
I look at it, and this is not based on any kind of
insight into the negotiations, because I don't know what they've discussed. But I
can't help but wonder if Edmonton's hoping to squeeze that number down a little bit
on a one or two year deal just in order to squeeze another player onto
the roster because they could use one more body. They might have to go
with the twenty one man roster this year. If they could make it twenty
two, that would make it a lot easier. So I feel like that
might be the hold up. But that's just my educated guest. That's not
me reporting anything. But I fully expect it's going to be right in that
condre byroom contract range. In terms of what he's going to perform. We
all know how well he did after Barry was traded. To me, that's
less. That's just a function entirely of opportunity. Bouchard probably should have had
that power play one role on merit before Barry left. But it's really hard
to unseat an incumbent, especially an incumbent on a power play that's performing so
well. And Tyson Berry is no slouch as an offensive the man, as
anyone who's watched the league last ten years notes, But Bouchard, to me,
he brings a little bit more to that power play, especially with respect
he was shot. He was close to a point per game to close out
the year. I don't know that i'd project him that over a full season,
but if you figure fifty five points is a floor and maybe all the
way up to seventy five, I think you're probably going to be in the
range. Just best guess, I'd say he's going to be in that sixty
sixty five point ballpark, and there could be some fluctuation on there depending on
exactly what happens with that power play. The other thing I think might help
them, I'm very curious to see how the Oilers roll their defensive units out
of camp because it's been Darnell Nurse and CODYCC on their shutdown pairing for ages
now and it just did not work in the postseason. Especially so to me,
I wonder if we see Bouchard get promoted onto that top five on five
unit and CODYCC take a lesser role, And to me, that would be
good for both Buchard and for Nurse if that were to happen, and that
would enhance the fantasy value of both players. Yeah, the five five pairs
seem like they might need a little adjustment, And man, if you're saying
they're going to bridge him for that cheap or potentially do a one year contract
in a cap league. He's going to be by far one of the most
valuable players because he's already getting so much power play opportunity, and usually the
guys who dictate that amount of power play production are in the eight to nine
million dollar range. So that's you're gonna everyone's gonna have to run out and
go get Evan Bischard if you can. I'm sure if someone rosters him already,
you're probably not gonna be able to pry him away. But it might
not last too long, as you said it, because the expectation would be
I'm sure to lock him up after that. Whatther that happens or not,
may or may not happen. But yeah, that's gonna be incredible if you
can get him for really cheap, because I think as much as he might
be comparable to byronman Miller, I think his upside is probably a lot higher
since he doesn't have someone blocking his power play opportunity like those other two do.
Yeah, that's financially, I think that's it's very much a short term
gain for long term pain play by the oilers. They they're in they're in
a tough spot. And if they bridge him for two years, like I
expect, his contract is going to come up the same time as Leon dry
Sidle after two full seasons of quarterback in that power play, So good luck
figuring out back cap mess at that point. But you know what, if
you win a Stanley Cup between here and there, you don't really care about
the cap mess. And in terms of from a fantasy perspective, if you're
in a cap leagues, he's just likely to be really good value. But
it's a good luck trading for him in a keeper league. And if you're
going to draft him, you better draft high because everyone knows he's taken over
the point position on the best power play in the world. But Ts eck
Holme, you've already mentioned him. He is a going to be a very
prominent guy. And he's the definition of a guy who I think of his
better in real life than in fantasy. Victor and I both ranked him in
the sixties last year. He ended up number seventy five, so we're on
point. But the thirty two points, one hundred four blocks, ninety one
hits, one hundred and thirty five shots in seventy eight games across two teams
last year. His stat line is unobtrusive for those just following the box scores.
The way to see what Mattias Eckholm's impact is to go to Michael Blake
McCurdy Hockey Viz on Twitter's replacements his for Eckholme and look at what happens to
guys when they're with or without eck Holme at five on five, and it's
like he absolutely pulls every single player way way to the positive on both offense
and defense, and it's just crazy. It looks like if his why we
were elastic, I know, I'm trying to describe a picture. If it
is why we were elastic for the time he had in Edmonton last year,
you would expect the rubber band to break because he's just absolutely pulling everybody to
the corner. So he has just got a very strong positive impact on the
ice on teams scoring and holding off scoring against. Again, unless he has
a dramatically different role in Edmonton than he did in Nashville, I guess I
don't know if I would expect him to get out of that typical low thirties
point pace and those decent but not blowing you away bash numbers. What do
you think Jonathan is that going to play a differ role here and maybe increase
his scoring in his box score statistics. I think I'm a little more bullish
on him than that picture you've described there. I look at the splits.
Obviously, at fourteen points in twenty one games after coming over to Edmonton,
he played about seventy percent of his five on time with either McDavid or dry
Sidle or both. So that obviously helps your five on five scoring numbers when
something like that happens. And Nashville, of course, is a team in
a difficult spot and has never been an offensive spotlight team anyway. So when
I was trying to figure out exactly what I expect from Ecam, because if
you just project what he did in Edmonton, he's going to be a fifty
plus point guy, and I don't I wondered if that was realistic. But
when I looked at his history, I mean, his career best year was
twenty eighteen nineteen, where he had forty four points, and the key thing
there was he didn't have a lot of power play time. He had a
little bit of power play production on there, but mostly it was five on
five and shorthanded production, and to me, that's pretty realistic if he's a
forty forty five point guy for the Oilers because of the players he's playing with,
and he's part of a more dynamic five on five offense. If he's
playing with Bouchard, that helps. If he's playing with CC that it hurts.
If he's playing with Philip Broberg on his off side, we're not really
sure because we don't really know what Philip Broberg is yet, but he's obviously
a very good player. As a fantasy asset, I probably would pay him
in that forty to forty five point range, and depending what secondary numbers your
league counsel like, if you're counting blocks and shorthanded points, he's got a
little more value. All right, Let's move on to the goalies, and
they had The Oilers had the eleventh ranked expected goals against per sixty according to
Evolving walk Wild Plubing Hockey in terms of expected goals against pers sixty, but
conceded the eighteenth ranked actual goals and so obviously well underperforming their expected number.
A lot of that certainly has to do with Jack Campbell, and we'll talk
about him in a sect, but I want to start with Stewart Skinner because
he was pretty decent. He actually had some pretty favorable numbers in terms of
goal save above expected and Delta Fenwick in terms of when he was in there.
He was definitely helping the team a little bit more. He's got three
years left to two point six million, so pretty decent cap hit. Not
massive starter money that's going to Jack Campbell, but certainly seems like he's in
line for a little bit more of the should be maybe a little bit more
of the opportunity, but obviously we have Jack Jack Campbell who has the contract,
even though he has performed dismally, so they're in a bit of a
situation here. You look at the cap and it obviously suggested Campbell is going
to get more of the opportunity, but it just really hasn't gone so far,
so I would imagine they stick with Skinner. What do you have to
say about that, Jonathan? What are the Oilers going to do in goal?
Because it's got to be these two, right, Yeah, I think
you've captured the picture pretty well there. With respect to Skinner had a nine
twenty seven save percentage at five on five, which is a really good number.
Nine thirteen overall, which is a solid number, especially in the year
they had. The one thing I think could help Skinner a little bit would
be if the penalty kill improved. The penalty kill in Edmonton was okay,
but it wasn't any better than that, and I think there's a little bit
of potential there for that to get better, especially as guys like McCloud and
some of the younger pieces slide into that role in the ropes a little bit
more. At the NHL level, I don't know what the split in games
played is going to be. A Goaltending is a hard position to predict at
the best of times. Obviously, the Oilers believed in Campbell a heck of
a lot a year ago to give him the contract that they did. I
don't think that belief went away with a single season, so I'm sorry.
It's hard to talk about one without talking about the other. To me,
i'd probably pay Skinner as a one A to Campbell's one B in terms of
how many of the starts he's going to get, maybe forty five to fifty,
and obviously performance is going to dictate where that goes. He might be
a true number one goalie which we don't see very often anymore. But he's
got a good HL record, he's got a good long term record. He's
a prospect they've believed in all down the line. If you go back to
his American League days, Jay Woodcroft, when he was in the playoffs,
his I believe it was Richard Bachman got injured and he had a choice between
Skinner and some other young goaltenders, and he went with Skinner, and Skinner
performed really well for him. I think there's a comfort level between coach and
goalie there. So I think Skinner projects like a good one a goalie like.
He doesn't seem like a franchise starter, but he seems like a solid
number one one a type and we should expect to see him do that going
forward. I don't know if he'll match his numbers from last year. He'll
probably dip a little at five on five, up a little bit at four
on five, but yeah, he'll be a solid fantasy goalie. He won't
be a top draft by any means, but at a decent bat. All
right, Jonathan, that's some great stuff on these goalies. That's going to
be a situation to watch for sure. Thank you so much for bringing his
insights on the Oilers today. Why don't you let people know how they can
keep up with all your work semi semi retired as a hockey writer these days,
but anything I do right will be on the website formerly known as Twitter.
I am at Jonathan Willis over there, pop onto ax and you can
keep up with the oilers and yeah, but not too many big feature articles
anymore. I still put out the odd piece for the Athletic, but to
slow down a little bit on that side. All right, thank you so
much, and yeah, everybody definitely should check that out. Thanks for coming
on, Thanks for having me, guys, It's always fun. Wilson.
That's good fired passed up. Oh my goodness, Cat quick grab Now it's
your weekly goalie talk with Cats Silverman, Cat's Instincts. Time again to talk
with Cat Silverman in Gold mag for Cat's instincts on the Edmonton Oiler goalies this
time. And this system is tricky. There isn't a whole lot I Cat.
I'm not going to remind the Edmonton fan base that they could have had
Jesper Walstead and they're system that would be cruel and mean to do, but
they were right there they could have done it. They traded up and took
I forget now someone else, but it wasn't whilst it and they don't have
the best goalies here. But the one we decided to talk about is Olivier
or A Drig and he was a twenty eighteen second round pick, so he's
been around for a while now, twenty three years old, six one hundred
and seventy four pound played in the HL last season was not bad nine twelve
save percentage two seven seventy had an even record at fourteen and fourteen for the
Condors. His hockey prospecting is really interesting. It's incredibly flat. You don't
see these very often, but they're just he's consistently in that mid to low
twenty percent chance of being an NHL or. One of his best comps,
I would say is cal Peterson, who had quite the experience at the HL
NHL level and it's listed as a replacement level starter here. Kat, what
do your inestings tell you about Rodrick? The good news is that if Olivia
rodrig continues to play at the HL level, he will get to see his
dad all the time because he is the AH goaltending coach for the Edmonton Oilers.
It's always fun when we keep it in the family like that. Yeah,
that one was. I was a little surprised when the Oilers took him
because the year that they took him was a goaltending powerhouse year. They took
him the same year that I believe it was the shift strike in year,
was a Lucas Destall year, it was the Oblonquist year. Justice in Noonan
got taken that year and with a fairly high pick. They picked their goaltending
coach's son, who I had thought looked fine but didn't look like maybe he
belonged as one of the top picks that year. And he's done fine.
It is nice that they had obviously plenty of scouting experience of him, because
one of their most important goaltending voices on the team has obviously seen plenty of
this kids. He's got a good technical foundation. He doesn't seem like he's
been slipping at all, which is what I always worry about with goaltenders in
the Oilers system, where you see them almost take a backslide statistically. We
saw that with Stewart Skinner until he finally was allowed to make the jump.
Lauren Bursois did that when he was with the Oilers. It's a very long
and depressing list, so I'm not going to continue going down the rabbit hole
of goaltending prospects for the Edmonton Oilers, who struggled until they went elsewhere.
But yeah, that team needs more consistent goaltending and I don't think that Rodrigue
looks ready for it, but I don't know that they have a ton in
the way of other options. So he might be an NHL goalie soon,
we'll see them. Not super optimistic about it, yeah, definitely, And
the twenty eight draft was not the Shisterkan draft he had. He was the
second goalie taken after Ola Flynnbaum of the Rangers, who hasn't done much either,
and interesting names went after him. A noon In at sixty four,
Lucas Dostal at eighty five that was pretty good for the Ducks, and Joel
Hoefer at one oh seven for the Blues. Then you had Prosbatov with Arizona,
a Kia Schmid at one thirty six, fifth round for the Devils.
That's looking pretty good, and then a couple other sort of tweener guys that
were taken later. So Yeah, definitely doesn't seem like he's going to be
the second pish schoolie out of this out of this crop by any means,
maybe not even top five, So curious choice. Indeed, thanks so much
for giving us your instincts on the Edmonton Oiler goalie prospect system cap. We'll
be back right after this, hinadjig. We're here to talk and Boilers they
have a few prospects, but not a whole lot. This system is one
Victor. Victor ranks twenty seventh overall. Nonetheless, Victor, they do have
some guys here and it starts with your no brainer. Who is it?
Yeah, my no brainer for the Edmonton Oilers is Xavier Borgo, Edmonton's twenty
twenty one first round pick, twenty second overall. He's important to remember.
I think it helps, at least with some of these guys that he's really
old for his draft here. So he is in October twenty second birthday,
so just a few weeks away from being eligible for the previous draft. And
this was his big season for him because he was in the queue doing pretty
well, went over a point per game a couple of times. Several times
they for sure winn again and then he was in the HL this year for
the Bakersfield Condors, and so that's a big jump up for him. And
he had thirteen goals, twenty one assists for thirty four points and sixty four
games, going just over that half point per game the threshold, which is
a pretty important one to look at. And obviously that's a pretty decent first
step. We look for a little bit more. And he's coming up on
the second year of his three year entry level deal. We're obviously hoping that
he can make an impact with the team soon, but it seems like he's
still a year or two away from that from the Oilers anyways. But we
need to learn a little bit more about what makes Xavier bard to go tick
and so for that we got to go to our scouts and Jesse, what
are our FHL scouts have to say? Why? Yes, we do.
And this one is courtesy of our FHL scout, Joshua. Here's what he
has to say. Being an undersized winger, one of Burgo's strengths is his
skating. He's quick, but doesn't just rely on speed. He use this
intelligence to find the best routes and has the foot speed and edgework to get
there. Fantastic passer, being able to find small holes and defensive structures and
exploit them with accurate passers, soft hands, the skill to dangle the puck
all around to unravel defenders. Shooting is not his strongest facet, but he
has a heavy wrister. He can get it off quickly and fairly accurately,
but his IQ allows him to get in the best position to make the most
of his shots. That IQ is probably Burgo's best asset. He always seems
to be in the right place at the right time offensively and defensively. Fantastic
vision in finding lanes and hitting his teammates, and he anticipates to play in
bull zones and reacts appropriately. He's a high energy guy on the fore check
rarely gives up on plays, allowing him to surprise opponents by sneaking up behind
them and stripping them in the puck. He's not big, but he's not
afraid of playing physically good defender, especially as a winger. His high motor
extends the defensive zone, and that combines with his high hockey IQ to break
up plays and make smart breakouts. He can use that speed to put pressure
on rush attackers break up or slow down place. So the best asset,
as we said, is the IQ. It allows everything else to time bergo
confined soft areas and put himself in the best area to make a hard risk
or open up lanes. Biggest concern undersized. We talked about all the ways
that being undersize is stopping him from doing things, but he could still struggle
against stronger competition when he goes up to an NHL type level top tier.
The best outcome that Joshua sees here complementary top line winger thirty fifty eighty.
That's a very nice place to get yourself to if you're an Edmonton oiler.
With skilled linemates, he could provide energy and a nice scoring touch, being
a pretty solid triple threat. With finishers and players that can keep up with
his hockey sense and pace, he can be part of a dominant line.
His fiftieth percent Tala's median outcome middle six energy forward. Hard to see him
thriving in a bottom six roll probably with that size and without linemates that can
keep up with him, but he could be a penalty killer and an energy
guy style comp comparable peak Brandon Gallagher with less grit and more skill or maybe
a poor man's calcannor something like that, maybe not so poor who knows.
NHL Rank King has some data to provide us. The votes that we have
out there and the p NHL E similarity scores. Top match for Xavier Bogaux
is Nazim Kadri In terms of an NHL PNHL E equivalency score. He is
at a second line potential line as of last year. He's declined a little
bit, as many do as they advanced through the miners and get through the
funnel, and that's where he is. We've compared him in the Mason Black
patented NHL Rank King poll to Bobby Brink, and the result of that vote
is Bobby Brink fifty eight to forty two over Xavier Borgo Victor. Is that
how you see this one? Yeah, this one's interesting because you have such
a smaller guy with Brink and those guys to and to have a little bit
harder time breaking in to the league. And that's always going to be the
issue with Brink. Although he's done really well each step of the way.
He's outperformed his size issue, but being five foot eight is always going to
be a big problem. For Bobby Brink, and he's someone who excelled at
the University of Denver, leave is there with for the national Championship team,
and he came into actually played ten NHL games this year and was in Lehigh
Valley for the Phantoms. Looks like he's actually doing pretty well consider especially considering
the really small stature. Having a thirty eight p nhle is not super exciting,
but that's a big jump for him. They're all similar in their HL
time. I think that in general I would probably leave Borgo lead Lean Borgo,
just because I think that there's a little bit more of the potential offense
and fewer obstacles there for him to overcome. But I think it could be
close between those to so I'm not sure that it's so clear. I think
that this is one of those things where Brink probably looks a little bit better
as a as someone who when he's playing down in lower levels. I'm not
sure that's gonna necessarily translate so well all to the NHL. So I'd be
a little skeptical about Brink. But so I'm not sure that it's quite clear
there between those two. Yeah, between Borgo and Brink, I think it
is close. That's what the polls shows, and Brink has done a pretty
nice transition to the professional ranks after being really good at the University of Denver.
The issue with him is that he's just he's so small. He's five
foot eight. He's been five foot eight basically this whole time, and he
hasn't really grown. He's a feisty kid, and he has shown that he
can perform at each levels. He made a really tough transition from USHL USNTDP
to Denver and then to the HL and even played some NHL games this season
and didn't look too bad. So you like that. I still would probably
take Poorgo just because that's he has fewer obstacles to overcome. Yeah, we
keep busting Borgo here, but he's four inches taller than Brink, so it's
hard to hold that against him. But yeah, for sure, So we
will see how that comes out between Borgo and Brink, And looking at the
hockey prospecting of Borgo versus Brink, both of them look not great. They
both started out at near twenty or twenty percent chance of being a star and
have trended down. Borgo one year younger than Brink, and Brink actually in
his final NC double A season, was able to raise his hockey prospecting star
potential trended down to five and then he pumped it back up to six.
Was slightly better, I guess, But both of these are actually pretty similar.
Borgo being a little bit younger and potentially being able to translate that in
his final year maybe increase it a little bit beyond what Brink did. I
guess that also is a little feather in his cap. Another reason to take
him if you just look at like his straight up comps. There are a
whole lot of relatively uninteresting guys for Borgo. Probably hit the most app one
is Ryan Spooner, who, if y'all remember him, was someone who would
get power playtime as a bottom sixer and was like an average producer, someone
who was fringe interesting in fantasy, but not someone who you needed to have
on your fantasy team. And I think Bargo might end up being that guy.
Maybe he develops into more of a power play specialist, maybe a middle
six guy. Depends he needs to figure out his role moving forward. And
the Jay Fresh card pretty pessimistic just four percent chance of being a star,
two percent chance of being an NHLer. The NHLer probability must much higher in
hockey prospecting up to fifty four. But yeah, overall, a little bit
of a subdued no brainer. I would say Jesse for sure. And I'm
not one to think that I'm smarter than Byron Bader's model on this one,
Victor. But I will say this guy went from what the queue to the
AHL at age nineteen. It's a big transition for a guy versus Bobby Brink,
who's had three years to simmer in the NCY and is a couple of
years older. I don't know the first year you get into the HL I
just don't think you're going to see a massive uptick in your ability to compete,
especially the physicality is part of it. But we'll see how it turns
out for him and whether that's something he just needs to get through. Let's
move on, Victor. A guy who's already come up once on this show
the need to know prospect. The Wisconsin Badger needs no prospect, I believe
is who Yeah, he was a badger for sure, right down in your
neck of the woods. That is Dylan Holloway, Edmonton's twenty twenty first round
pick. Fourteenth overall, he's actually a little bit older than Borgo for his
draft year he was. He's actually a September twenty third birthday, so he's
only about a week away from being eligible from the for the next draft,
So that is always something to keep in mind. He's always been older than
everyone he's played against, and I think sometimes I can really catch up to
you as you move up levels. And he's someone who played NHL games this
past season. He played fifty one of them, just three goals and six
assists. Twelve games with the HL Bakersfield and he had seven goals and three
assists. He's coming up on the last year of his entry level deal,
so that's going to be an important one. Looks like he's slated for an
NHL role, but the question is what is that. Seems like he's a
bottom six guy at this point. His evolving hockey ramp him charts to show
he's pretty close to average in terms of defensively but pretty below average offensively.
So he looks at this point more like a bottom six guy than anything.
So that's important to keep in mind. And we need to learn a little
bit more about Dylan Holloway and to do that. We're gonna hear from our
FHL scout Jesse and this report comes courtesy of FHL Scout Brandon Skating. Holloway
is an elegant, speedy skater that generates a lot of acceleration. Motor and
efficient stride grants him the ability to be both responsible position land on defense and
a multi tool threat without the puck on zone entries and on an attack in
the ozone. After gathering some speed and momentum with the puck, he can
slow his game down to a wide and stable based anchored on his inner edges.
Passing and handling a soft touch and ease When passing the puck. Seems
to be more concerned that the puck is receivable and in just the right place,
as opposed to get in it there with speed and force. One of
his trademarks is hauling the puck with his wide stands and protecting it with his
body in a way that allows him to dish the puck using his backhand.
He's comfortable carrying the puck through all three zones. He demonstrates the ability to
execute deeks at top flight while maintaining solid puck control. He also shows the
ability to pick up the pace when moving the puck by utilis utilizing quick one
touch passes, so shooting his snapshot comes off his blade in a hurry without
much telegraph motion. His aim can be quite deadly accurate, and he seems
to hunt for hitting just inside the post. He can unleash a punchy one
time or moves faster than one would expect and iq. He persists as a
sturdy and dynamic net front presence that is a threat to deflect shots or peel
off to amplify a cycle down low. He showed a lot of growth and
becoming more poised and confident as his experience at the pro level accumulated, and
he often displays his calm while carrying the puck and is quite strong on his
feet in flight of foot for checking, he poses a menace and is a
threat if he can pressure and pursue via skating alone and is quite comfortable throwing
his body around. Defense. Range and mobility allow him to be a responsible
player in the D zone, quick to pressure the puck at the points,
and has an active stick that can disrupt the play. So the best asset
was the acceleration comfort at top speed. Serpentine stability at lower speeds, and
the concern is consistency in both play driving and creating scoring chances for himself.
The top tier potential a top line power forward winger in the seventy to eighty
point range with special teams near the high end in terms of shots and hits
that would be nice. Fiftieth percentile or median role. Middle six complimentary energy
guy in the forty to fifty point range could be molded into a reliable,
shallow or shadow like defensive forward and PK specialist if the offensive game doesn't click.
Stylistic comparison comparable a faster Alice Hemski with the sturdiness and defensive mind of
Jordan's stall in a far better shot than both shades of Chris Krider, says
our scout and the NHL ranking data and poll in terms of NHL equivalency.
As much as Victor said, it seems to be dropping as time goes on,
he now has a client down below second line potential type areas, and
so that's not necessarily looking great for him. We compared him to Peyton Krebs,
who was picked three spots later in one year earlier by they. I
guess and is now a member of the Buffalo Sabers and Peyton. Krebs won
fairly handily in this poll, sixty three to thirty seven percent in two hundred
and eight votes. Victor Krebs or Holloway? Who you got? Yeah,
I'm gonna go with the people here take Krebs. I think both of these
guys are probably going to turn out to be more just middle to bottom sixers,
though they both look like nhlos. Krebs, surprisingly because he was billed
as this really offensive guy, was actually really good defensively for the Sabers.
Maybe that was the role that they asked him to play. He didn't really
score too much, but they also didn't really give him a ton of opportunity.
But Holloway is much more average defensively with kind of poor offense. So
I think that Crabs can probably do more, but a lot of it's just
going to dictate opportunity, and I think that Krebs will get more just because
he's got a little bit more two way guy. He has that scoring prowess
from his younger years, so I think it's probably going to be Krebs,
though I think either of these guys are probably going to get to the point
where they're hundred gamers and we're deciding whether we need to keep them or not,
and the answer might be neither, the answer might be just take someone
else instead. Looking out the hockey prospecting for these two, they're pretty similar
actually, and they both have gone up and down, but finished the model
about ten percent chance of being a star but very likely nhlors, which they
both look like they're going to be, so not too much difference. They're
looking at some of other Dylan Holloway comps, most of them are uninteresting replacement
level average producers, though he does have a couple of really good ones.
One that Zaku Koivu is someone who just broke the model because he had basically
low equivalency across the board and became a star. So I guess what that's
saying is there's always a chance, but I think it's pretty unlikely. And
the Jay Fresh card looks pessimistic to two percent chance of being a star and
thirty three percent chance of being an NHL or so. Dylan Holloway overall has
turned out to be not someone that was super interesting in fantasy. After all,
Jesse, I would say, there you go, and Victor, you've
got your keep your eye in prospect. Who is it keep your eye on?
Is draft pick from this upcom this past draft twenty twenty three, and
that's bow Akey. That was Edmonton's second round pick, fifty sixth overall.
He had eleven points in thirty six games for forty seven points in sixty six
games for Barry of the OHL. I should also mention he's a six ft
one hundred and seventy four pound right handed d so that point total forty seven
in sixty six not too bad for a defenseman, and looking at his tracking
data, he looks really excellent in a few very important categories. Bow Akey
is expected goals for sixty is nearly the bad in the entire OHL, which
or sorry the HL, which is pretty fantastic for this data set. He
doesn't shoot a ton, but he creates a lot of really dangerous chances.
He's also really excellent at some of his transition defense, in particular entry controlled
entries against he's really good at. He's not necessarily great at getting the puck
in or getting himself as his team into the zone, but some other really
good things like advantages created expected primary points involvement and game score are all really
excellent. So he's someone and I know that Mitch talked about him. He's
someone who there probably is an ability to take a big step forward here next
season. So it'll be he'll be someone oo Ak will be someone really fun
to watch because there is a potential for him to really take a step or
two and be one of the top tier defensemen from this draft if all kind
of goes well. But let's hear a little bit more about what we think
of him now, and that's from our FHL scout Brandon Victor. First of
all, I want to let you know, don't tell my heart, my
achy Boak heart. I just don't think it would understand. And if anybody
gets that reference, kudos to you. The first thing Brandon actually noted he
he actually threw a little stat in here to show that Brent Clark had a
big influence on his season the time before Brent Clark returned. Basically, Akey
was twice as productive as he was once Clark did and came and sucked up
some minutes. But anyway, as to the actual player, Akey a powerful
and smooth skater whose hallmark is his spring like agility and transition. Incredibly directionally
versatile and allows great control and capability with his edgework capacity to generate great force
out of routine postures and seemingly off one or two strides, exploding laterally off
his lead outside edge. His passing and handling. His passes are confident and
consistent, with very few errant passes. His style leans more to a Russian
or football style, where he's opting to launch lateral passes up to rink with
that hit more open teammates in a better strategic position. Rarely will you see
him comp up behind the net to set up long breakout pass, as he's
usually involved in marching the puck up the ice. Ake has soft, steady,
quiet hands. When carrying the puck up the ice, he is not
looking to decomponents, but rather slow him his way across. Shooting often puts
some extra gusto in his shots, even though it's taken from low danger areas
as a pensiont for letting a shot go when it is least expected, and
will do so while not being set himself so as to avoid detection that the
shot is coming. His one timer is heavy and fast and led to an
overtime game winning goal. In Brandon's observation IQ, one of the first things
that was noticed is a pro esque level of toys and control, dynamically active
in the play from an overwatch position that allows him to jump into great effect
keen I for when and where plays are developing on both ends of the ice
for four checking. Not on the leading edge of textbook four checks, but
he'll capitalize on his vision of play development defense, Russian and zone disruptive,
diverse display of end zone defense. His first layer of coverage is this gap
in positional control, as he's solid and protecting his ice and the ice around
him by ushering the puck carrier to the outside. Best asset then, was
the skating, particularly the agility and acceleration in the biggest concern not a massive
concern, but he could serve to improve his general stability and ability to stay
on his feet around the defensive net. Maybe add twenty more pounds to his
frame, and the top tier outcome for him incredibly solid higher end number three
D second right handed D for a team with a shot of being a number
two defenseman with the right development and chemistry. Forty plus points even strength minute
muncher, PK specialist, second unit of power play, upper eche line for
blocks and mid to low ranks for hit, So that'd be a pretty good
outcome. The middling outcome for him fifty number four or five defender, heavy
PK and D zone deployment, high floor coach favorite twenty five points. Stylistic
comparable shades of a guy who we've talked about earlier. Today, I'm at
ds Holm or Pronger, modern edge, dexterity and tools. On top of
that, positioning, disruption and transition game is reminiscent to Brady Shay or Shay
Theodore. The rank king shows him on a positive upward trajectory from his first
year to last year. Kyle Capobianco is the comparable. He's just crept over
the second line potential in terms of this equivalency score. And we're putting up
again, putting him up against Matthew Mania who was drafted this year in the
fifth round, as opposed to Aky who's taken to the second round this year.
And the people liked bo Akey. It should, I mean, he
was drafted three rounds earlier in the draft. That just happened two months ago.
But bo Aky one sixty six to thirty seven percent. Victor, Is
that the way you see this one? Probably? Yeah. I think Mania
is a really interesting player because his game is really chaotic, as his name
suggests, and he could really refine that. And if you just take the
best parts of his game and assume the rest of it's going to even out,
then he could be excellent and he could over pay overtake Aky. Thinky
just has so many translatable skills already. You mentioned the skating and a lot
of the work that he does. He just seems more likely to be an
actual NHL player, So that's fantastic, and I think it's hard to It
would be hard to take Mania, who's just much more of a question mark
in terms of will he actually play. But I think if you wanted to
swing hard on an upside of who could be a better fantasy asset, then
I think it might be Mania. It's just you're also pretty likely to just
drop him in a couple of years if he doesn't work out. It depends
on your appetite there. If you want someone who's more likely to play games
and has some modest upside than I would definitely take a Key. But if
you wanted to take a hard swing certainly later. I think Mania is a
good one to think about. If you look at their hockey prospecting, they
actually look exactly the same right now. They both have an eight percent chance
of being a star, forty percent chance of being an NHL or so that's
actually pretty similar. I should mention that Mania was also in the AHL for
the Sudbury Wolves and he was a similar production. That's why they're Their hockey
prospecting is similar. In terms of other comps for Aky, there are on
a whole lot of really excellent ones that there's some John Merrill looks like him
a little bit. Most of the guys he look like are just replacement level
of producers. And then if you look at the JA Fresh card for Aky,
it's just three percent chance of being a star, fifteen percent chance of
being an NHL or so. Pretty pessimistic. But overall, so is this
system not super exciting? And jes see, there are some more guys we
could talk about, but we're gonna leave that for our top ten lists recap
that I do on Patreon. So if you're interested in that, sign up,
and if you're interested in doing any scouting with us. You can shoot
me a DM on Twitter, discord, or email us. Very good.
Let's come right back and close out the show. Before we get out of
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a second podcast over there called Dauber Prospects Report that he does with our friend
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