1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,719 On today's episode, we are getting into the latest space news, including Elon 2 00:00:04,839 --> 00:00:09,320 says Starship will be ready for launch inside the month, while also hinting at 3 00:00:09,359 --> 00:00:15,160 a new version being designed and NASA's next Mars mission is still being planned for 4 00:00:15,279 --> 00:00:19,359 the new Glen. This is the space Race. In the wake of the 5 00:00:19,399 --> 00:00:24,399 second Starship test flight, CEO Elon Musk has been answering a lot of questions 6 00:00:24,399 --> 00:00:30,559 from curious and excited SpaceX fans about the world's largest rocket, and recently Elon 7 00:00:30,679 --> 00:00:35,880 let some interesting information out into the wild. SpaceX is close to leaving version 8 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:42,240 one of Starship behind. On November twenty fourth, Elon posted an image of 9 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,719 four in production starships in the high bay at starbas Boca Chica ships twenty eight, 10 00:00:48,039 --> 00:00:52,840 twenty nine, thirty and thirty two and mentioned that they are the very 11 00:00:53,079 --> 00:00:58,560 last of the V one line and well, that certainly raises a very specific 12 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:03,679 question, one that we weren't alone in asking, Hey, Elon, if 13 00:01:03,759 --> 00:01:07,680 these are the last of the V ones, then what's the V two going 14 00:01:07,719 --> 00:01:11,000 to be? Luckily, Elon was still in the mood to talk about the 15 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:15,239 future, and so he explained a little more. In response to a user 16 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,599 on X asking about the V two Starship, Elon says that the next iteration 17 00:01:19,719 --> 00:01:23,680 of the vehicle's design will hold more propellant, reduce its dry mass, and 18 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:29,959 improve its reliability. Okay, that's pretty vague, but there is something in 19 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,920 there that Elon is likely hinting at. Specifically, way back in twenty twenty 20 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,799 one, Elon was having a conversation on Twitter about the potential of Starship upgrades. 21 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:44,159 As time went on, and more specifically, the subject of adding more 22 00:01:44,239 --> 00:01:49,640 engines came up, Musk remark that the ship is begging for three more vacuum 23 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,239 engines to be added, and that the tanks would stretch to make room for 24 00:01:53,359 --> 00:01:57,840 propellant. Now, this could have just been some idle conversation. Most concepts 25 00:01:57,879 --> 00:02:01,799 like this don't survive the first couple of draft meetings with the engineers. But 26 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:07,840 adding three more vacuum raptor V two s under Starship would increase its payload lift 27 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:12,960 capacity by roughly fifty percent, taking it from being able to lift one hundred 28 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,759 and fifty tons into orbit to two hundred and twenty tons. So that accounts 29 00:02:17,759 --> 00:02:23,159 for his more recent hints about increased propellant capacity, and the reliability improvements will 30 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:29,280 likely come from just the application of lessons learned through testing. But what about 31 00:02:29,319 --> 00:02:34,520 the bit about lowering the dry mass of Starship. Surely adding more propellant in 32 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,800 bigger tanks and three more engines would do the opposite. No, well, 33 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:43,439 we're not going to pretend to know exactly what Musk is thinking here, but 34 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:49,439 recent developments in metallurgy have been very successful at letting companies like Relativity, space 35 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:53,960 and NASA work with lighter metals to make things like engine cowlings and fuselage structures. 36 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:59,719 There's been no word on if SpaceX is intending on dabbling in some of 37 00:02:59,759 --> 00:03:02,800 this interesting new tech to get their weight down, or if they've found other 38 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,960 ways to shave some mass off of their multi story vehicle, but either way, 39 00:03:07,159 --> 00:03:12,560 they definitely need to consider trimming some weight off Starship if they intend to 40 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,919 get some better lifting capacity off of it. Aside from these specifics, though, 41 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:21,639 the timing definitely lines up with SpaceX moving forwards with their design. These 42 00:03:21,719 --> 00:03:25,439 last four starships should allow them to test deep into next year and give them 43 00:03:25,439 --> 00:03:31,400 time to construct more specific test vehicles for things like orbital refueling demonstrations and lunar 44 00:03:31,479 --> 00:03:36,800 landing attempts. With everything they are about to learn. It would almost be 45 00:03:36,879 --> 00:03:40,919 disappointing if they didn't make a better Starship. Three to four weeks. That 46 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,120 is the latest word from SpaceX CEO Elon Musk as to when the company would 47 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:51,599 be ready to launch another Starship super heavy rocket. In a response to questions 48 00:03:51,639 --> 00:03:55,400 on social media on November nineteenth, Musk indicated that his company was in very 49 00:03:55,439 --> 00:04:00,039 good shape following the second test flight of Starship just the day four on November 50 00:04:00,039 --> 00:04:04,280 eighteenth, saying, quote, Starship Flight three hardware should be ready to fly 51 00:04:04,479 --> 00:04:09,280 in three to four weeks. There are three ships in final production in the 52 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,159 high bay by now. Of course, we are all well aware that Elon's 53 00:04:13,199 --> 00:04:17,879 timeframes are more like guidelines than actual rules, But here he's being very specific, 54 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:24,040 and with good reason, because there's a huge difference between SpaceX having their 55 00:04:24,079 --> 00:04:29,560 hardware ready for launch and SpaceX having the authority to launch. Elon is one 56 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,480 hundred percent correct. A quick glance from the highway into starbas Bokachka shows that 57 00:04:33,519 --> 00:04:39,279 there are three nearly complete Starship vehicles in the main high bay. There's actually 58 00:04:39,439 --> 00:04:43,240 four in there, but one isn't quite complete yet. More on that later. 59 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,480 We're also aware that the company has Booster ten basically ready to fly, 60 00:04:46,879 --> 00:04:51,759 and just recently transported Booster eleven back from the secondary test range at the McGregor 61 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:58,279 facility, so that's at least the next two flights very close to being good 62 00:04:58,319 --> 00:05:01,160 to go, with a couple more waiting in. The SpaceX does still have 63 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:05,879 to complete pressure and cryoproofing testing, as well as some static fires before they 64 00:05:05,879 --> 00:05:11,040 can certify their next pair of launch candidates, but that would likely only take 65 00:05:11,079 --> 00:05:15,839 two weeks or so provided no major hardware issues were found during those tests. 66 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,839 The rest of the time Elon was estimating is likely for the minimal repairs to 67 00:05:19,879 --> 00:05:25,040 the orbital launch mount and part of the tower. If the November eighteenth test 68 00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:29,079 proved anything, it was that the recent upgrades to the SpaceX Stage zero launch 69 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:33,040 hardware were so effective that the company now has more expectations for the safety of 70 00:05:33,079 --> 00:05:40,240 their equipment than even NASA can boast. Elon shared photos of him standing under 71 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:45,199 the OLM on the nineteenth, proudly showing that there was practically no damage to 72 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,480 the thing despite having the world's most powerful rocket boosting into it to achieve liftoff. 73 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:56,800 By comparison, NASA's Artemis one launch left their SLS launchpad devastated. Anyone 74 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,720 would agree that it's a major improvement from star Ship's first test flight, so 75 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,720 that means there won't be a whole lot of time needed to repair and test 76 00:06:04,759 --> 00:06:11,000 that launch hardware, which means we get to talk about everyone's favorite regulatory body, 77 00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:14,920 the FAA, because whether or not SpaceX is ready to go by late 78 00:06:14,959 --> 00:06:18,839 December isn't the issue here. They still need launch approval from the FAA to 79 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:24,120 plan another test flight. As soon as Booster nine flipped and exploded, the 80 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:30,000 FAA needed to start a mishap report, which means another investigation period. But 81 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,040 there are silver linings here. First off, with so little damage to the 82 00:06:34,079 --> 00:06:39,360 pad, there won't be much for SpaceX to do in terms of satisfying any 83 00:06:39,439 --> 00:06:45,120 FAA requests for increased safety. The quick disconnect on the tower's chopstick arms might 84 00:06:45,199 --> 00:06:47,959 need replacing, and the OLM might need to replace some panels and get a 85 00:06:47,959 --> 00:06:51,439 new coat of paint, but that's about it, and since no new launch 86 00:06:51,439 --> 00:06:57,040 hardware is going to be installed, the environmental investigations that took so long last 87 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,319 time won't have to be run again. Similarly, the biggest concern from the 88 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:05,439 first test flight, the flight termination system not activating properly wasn't an issue this 89 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:10,720 time. Booster nine system activated as the booster began breaking up. According to 90 00:07:10,759 --> 00:07:15,000 SpaceX, and Ship twenty five's FTS was activated manually by the ground crew when 91 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:20,079 they lost telemetry again. According to their own report, there is a small 92 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:25,360 issue with Starship's FTS, though it seems that a sizeable chunk of the upper 93 00:07:25,399 --> 00:07:30,279 stage survived the explosion, the starship nose cone and upper flaps continued on long 94 00:07:30,399 --> 00:07:33,279 enough to re enter the atmosphere. Now, that's not a huge issue, 95 00:07:33,279 --> 00:07:38,319 as the current regulation says that the FTS only needs to break up the volatile 96 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:42,279 fuel containers, and most of the nose cone was not likely to survive the 97 00:07:42,319 --> 00:07:46,720 trip all the way to the ground. Regardless, those regulations were made before 98 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,959 anything like Starship was conceived, and so the FAA might take this as a 99 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:55,240 q to ask SpaceX to design part of their FTS to be able to destroy 100 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:59,920 even the hardened nose cone of their gigantic rocket. All that being said, 101 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,839 but though it may not be entirely ridiculous to think that SpaceX wants to take 102 00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:07,600 a run at a Christmas time launch, they have a lot of testing ground 103 00:08:07,639 --> 00:08:11,199 to cover if they want to actually make the deadline for their twenty twenty five 104 00:08:11,279 --> 00:08:15,160 Artemis three mission, and while we here at the Space Race have said that 105 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,959 it doesn't seem possible for them to make that date, we would love to 106 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:22,399 be proven wrong safely. Of course, As for any upcoming third flight test 107 00:08:22,439 --> 00:08:26,600 for Starship, this new information really does shift the potential schedule up a bit. 108 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,040 Last week we said it looked as though a test in January would be 109 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,600 unlikely, with February being the most probable time for this next launch and may 110 00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:39,720 being a safe bet. But with the new information that so much flight hardware 111 00:08:39,799 --> 00:08:43,039 is essentially ready to go, it seems impossible that SpaceX won't be granted a 112 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:48,480 license to launch by January at the latest. And who knows, with all 113 00:08:48,519 --> 00:08:52,879 the pressure on the FAA lately, they might finish their investigation before the holiday 114 00:08:52,879 --> 00:08:56,480 break, and then we might see Ift three competing with the ULA's Vulcan for 115 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:03,639 the most spectacular Christmas launch. A recent Advisory Council meeting at NASA has revealed 116 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,559 that the agency is confident that their upcoming Mars Escapade mission will be ready to 117 00:09:07,639 --> 00:09:11,360 launch by August twenty twenty four at the earliest, and while they are not 118 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:16,759 entirely confident of that launch date, they are confident that the mission will be 119 00:09:16,799 --> 00:09:20,120 shepherded to the Red Planet on top of Blue Origins prototype heavy lift rocket. 120 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:26,840 The New Glen Director Bradley Smith of NASA's Launch Services Office, made the statement 121 00:09:26,919 --> 00:09:31,759 to the Human Exploration and Operations Committee on November twentieth, remarking that he was 122 00:09:31,879 --> 00:09:35,600 incredibly excited for the launch, which, considering it's now possibly less than a 123 00:09:35,639 --> 00:09:39,600 year away, is a pretty good sign that NASA is confident it will launch 124 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:43,279 within the year, but they can't really be sure of that because the contract 125 00:09:43,279 --> 00:09:50,440 holder is Blue Origin, the undisputed king of not disclosing information about their rockets. 126 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,159 Back in February of twenty twenty three, Blue Origin was granted the contract 127 00:09:54,159 --> 00:09:58,080 to take two Rocket Lab made satellites to Mars as part of a Venture Class 128 00:09:58,159 --> 00:10:03,039 or VADR launch contract. These contracts are used to let NASA get certain missions 129 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,120 to the pad for cheap while accepting some additional risk, which is where the 130 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,799 New Glen comes in. Blue Origin has been working on their new workhorse rocket 131 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,200 since around twenty sixteen, when the company unveiled their plans for their own reusable 132 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,120 launch vehicle. Since then, the company has struggled to get it to the 133 00:10:20,159 --> 00:10:26,159 pad, with setbacks related to their BE four engines and of course the pandemic, 134 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:31,200 but they didn't seem to have any trouble landing contracts. Despite not having 135 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:35,039 much to show the public, New Glen started landing Blue Origin several military and 136 00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:41,840 government contracts, which leads us to the Escapade mission. The Escape and Plasma 137 00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:46,519 Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers are a pair of small SATs made by Rocket Lab, 138 00:10:46,759 --> 00:10:50,200 the company behind the Electron and the Photon upper stage vehicle that was responsible for 139 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:56,080 getting NASA's Capstone satellite to the Moon back in summer twenty twenty two. These 140 00:10:56,080 --> 00:11:00,559 two satellites will head to a Martian orbit and study its magnet the sphere for 141 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:05,240 interactions with solar winds, allowing us to better understand how Mars's thin atmosphere behaves 142 00:11:05,279 --> 00:11:11,360 in solar weather. This mission represents a huge opportunity for both companies, but 143 00:11:11,399 --> 00:11:15,639 it's really down to Blue Origin to get their rocket working on time. It's 144 00:11:15,639 --> 00:11:18,720 hard to say anything about their progress because, as we mentioned before, they 145 00:11:18,759 --> 00:11:24,480 are very tight lipped about their tech. But Whenever they've pushed back initial launch 146 00:11:24,519 --> 00:11:28,200 tests before, they've never made NASA excited, so it's a decent bet that 147 00:11:28,279 --> 00:11:33,279 New Glenn will be flying in twenty twenty four, at least for the first 148 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:37,000 flight test. As for Escapade, we'll just have to wait and see if 149 00:11:37,039 --> 00:11:39,919 the quiet work of the Blue Origin engineers holds up to testing.