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Hey, like they can say nice
things and the economy is doing this or

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that, but they're going to have
to lower rates. That's the upshot.

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The pivot's coming, right, Yeah, the pivot's coming. I think though,

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if they indeed, if the bezz
indeed treat the balance sheet, continue

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to shrink the balance sheet, which
I suspect they're going to continue doing,

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decrease the monetary supply them too.
I think that great decreases most likely could

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occur somewhere out about a year from
now. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial

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00:00:31,519 --> 00:00:37,119
Survival Network, where you get valuable
information you just can't find anywhere else to

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00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:43,039
thrive in today's trying times. You
need the Financial Survival Network now more than

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00:00:43,079 --> 00:00:47,960
ever. Go to Financial Survival and
Network dot com and get your free newsletter

11
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:58,600
in gift Financial Survival Network now more
than ever. And welcome you are listening

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to watching the Finance shall Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry Luttz.

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Well, well, all the Fed
hath spoken, and as it's spoken clearly,

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do you know what the Fed did
yesterday? Sometimes doing nothing is a

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lot more than doing something. And
here to discuss it with us right now

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is David Wright financial expert and proprietor
of the Right Financial Group. You find

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him at Right Financial Group dot com. Hey, questions comments for myself or

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David or anything else about the economy, stocks, etc. Just shoot me

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an email kl at carry Lutz dot
com. David, it's great to have

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you on the show. So the
Fed has spoken, or shall we say

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they haven't spoken. They didn't raise
hikes where you surprised, not at all.

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I think most of the economists predicted
it would be a nothing for or

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this time. The big question is, you know, what are they going

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to do with the remaining two meetings
of this year. Carry they've kind of

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gotten themselves into this predicament that if
they raise rates anymore than they do right

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now, they risk even more demand
destruction and bank stress, you know,

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things that are going on. They
felt right now that the economy is in

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a good enough place. Things are
kicking along. We had a recent IPO

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of ARM that came about that went
pretty well. Doing well. The economy

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right now in and up and down
state. As far as consumers look concerned,

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I think they're looking at the auto
strike. I think they're looking at

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consumer debt. I think they're looking
at a host of bigs carry that are

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of concern to them. Raising rates
right now could just break the backs of

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banks and consumers as well as companies. And there are future rings right all

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right. So it's better to do
nothing than to keep pushing it. What

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of the banks, the regional banks, past few days, we're getting hit

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pretty hard. Seems like maybe they're
bouncing back now, but they seem to

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be a key indicator. The other
indicator is that the FIDS emergency discount,

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the window borrowing program to keep the
banking sector afloat every week has been going

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up. So to this uneducated eye
here, David, it really looks like

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things maybe aren't that good in the
banking financial sector. Well, they certainly

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are, because you know, a
base at to mark their books, mark

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to mark with their loans really are
worth at any given time. And with

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mortgage rates being doubled up the read
they were two and a half years ago,

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mortgage activity is greatly slowed down.
I don't think my own situation where

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either we're trying we're trying to downsize, Ryan size unintended, but we're trying

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to size and we want to make
it a cash deal from our house to

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another house so if we want to
upgrade a little bit more from where we're

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at right now. And finally,
as any of it, who wants to

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finance it at seven point two nine
percent? Right, So all those things

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are playing into bank profits. Profitability
of banks are under question. But I

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think the bigger question is, you
know, how will the FEDS continue to

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manage the sticky inflation. Inflation has
made progress, Gary Almanta. Progress has

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come from nine point one last year, as I'm sure your notes will indicate

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down to you roughly now. I
think on the CPI aadline c guy was

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three point seven core CPI drop a
little bit, but the bends really a

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little bit more pc which comes out
at the end of September, but it's

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it's still pretty sticky. I think
what the feats they're going to have to

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do is this. I don't see
them raising hypes in November or even raising

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anything in December. Oh way you
see them doing is shrinking the balance sheet.

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I think what they're going to have
to do is all this four point

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by trillion they print it during COVID
stimulus, all of those treasury bonds they

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purchased to inject cash into the autonomy
as those treasuries start to mature, they're

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not going to reissue them. They're
going to let them roll off. They're

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going to diminish the monetary supply from
all the federal reserve banks, which in

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effect will cause inflation, I think, to drop just by tidening the money

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supply. So I think that's going
to be how they regulate the inflation and

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the future, not buying, you
know, war rate hikes. But there

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are plenty of people on the other
the other side, and say, I

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think you're wrong. I think they're
going to have to continue to addie because

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you look at oil right now,
over ninety around ninety a barrel. You

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know that's going to get all the
American silvers with gas prices next year when

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they go to the blow, that's
gonna shrink their budget. It's gonna end

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companies. It's gonna hit the trickle
down board all manufacturing and retail when gas

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prices go back up. And no, he started on this find that change

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in ev movement. It just all
this stuff works in in this one big

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ball that it's going to be hard
to get out of. Right. Well,

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yeah, and not to mention the
deficits running a couple trillion a year,

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and we got a surplus of the
treasury debt on the market, and

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the dollar keeps going up. We
got war is a war in Europe and

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potentially in other places. So this
balancing act, it seems like the Feds

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balancing a lot of plates. They're
like that guy the contortionist, spinning a

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quickly all over the place. But
in some points the plates are going to

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break, right, Yes, I
think so. And in this part of

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it, you know the by toonomics
of the presidential stance on a lot of

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the things that are going on right
now with climate change. I'm not against

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climate change, amount against that movement, but to completely transition over to evs

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in California by twenty thirty two,
it just isn't reasonable to do that.

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We need fossil fuels to create arts
for those evs. And if if we're

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under a situation where the current administration
says they're pro union, if they're really

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pro union, but they're back at
the EV market, we know that forty

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percent less workforce is required in EV
manufacturing and that trivial down effect to all

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the suppliers of EV vehicles. So
all of this stuff is going to contribute

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to I think a lot more unappointed
demand to structure. So you know,

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we're we're, we're I think,
in an heap of trouble for the moment.

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It's a balancing act, for sure, it's a balancing act. So

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M two. All right, velocity
of money keeps going down, that's generally

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a bad thing because it's as a
deflation. Yeah, inflation was at nine

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point something percent, but you and
I both know, David, the actual

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inflation rate, the real inflation rate
substantially higher in double digits, right,

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of course, well into double digits. I don't have the exact number,

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but I can prove it to you. I mean, when the fetus has

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made that uh what I want to
call it a brain fart of saying that

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the inflation is transitory. Come on, ATA is never transitory. It's permanent.

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It's what the rate of acceleration is. Yeah. Now, maybe the

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rate of acceleration has decreased from nine
to three point seven or four percent.

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But the reality is I have clients
that are doing very well, and i'd

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ask some clients that are just getting
by following no one's an issue inflation being

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the problem for them and the monetary
supply shrinking. Just yesterday, I'd had

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somebody walk in with their four oh
one K account and they said, I

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need to cash this in. I
have a house of bayment I gotta make

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I got to cash this in.
I had somebody else I had an appointment

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with on Zoom yesterday, Carrie.
There is something that is ready to retire

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there. They're they're near their retirement
and they've got over fifty thousand credit card

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goals and no way of getting out
of that unless they use their retirement accounts

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to pay them all. Consumer debt
four oh one K loans and credit card

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increasing credit card debt is it's gonna
kill everyday Americans. So people really need

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to wise up and get lean and
mean right now if they want to have

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any kind of a hold of a
happy Yeah. No, it couldn't agree

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00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:07,600
animal or couldn't agree with you more. I mean, they like they can

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say nice things and the economy is
doing this or that, but they're going

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to have to lower rates. That's
the upshot. The pivot's coming, right,

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Yeah, the pivot's coming. I
think though, if they indeed,

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if the BEZ indeed treat the balance
sheet continued to hrink, the balance sheet,

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which I suspect they're going to continue
doing decrease the monetary supply them too.

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I think that great decreases most likely
could occur somewhere out about a year

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from now September twenty twenty four.
Although the big five hundred down elephant in

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a room is holm. Is this
new aw strike gone this tomorrow? Horany

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at noon is when it's supposed to
be, you know, some sort of

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it's being resolved that I don't see
it being anywhere near it are my hometown

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where right financial group is located to
leo is Homemost Stilantis, which is your

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company of largest you've done? Why
out? Yeah, they're nowhere near every

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00:11:05,639 --> 00:11:09,200
mid year nowhere near all right?
So what are you supposed to do as

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an investor, as a saver all
these things? How do you short a

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00:11:16,879 --> 00:11:22,720
course for survival and even prospering in
these uncertain times? Here, David,

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00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:28,039
great question, Carrie, and I
think the number one thing that to do

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in their own because it is look
at what the purpose of your money is,

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for purpose over performance, Because if
you shoot for Gormans, you're going

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to try to find that stock that
can appreciate what you may guess long.

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00:11:41,879 --> 00:11:45,960
So what you need to do is
decide not the money's for if it's or

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00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,320
going most of my clientsy, or
which is for income. We find things

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00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:54,799
right now that because inflation is still
steady and the treasury one year treasuries are

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00:11:54,840 --> 00:12:03,000
at by plus percent, we have
people taking advantage of walking in higher short

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00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:07,600
duration things that can get them through
this time frame where their money can be

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00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:13,480
you know, have some principal protection
and have some interest paid, also using

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00:12:13,519 --> 00:12:18,480
things that generate interest and dividends from
bond, bond like securities or birds,

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00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:24,080
things like that of that nature that
even if there's shifts, if the fence

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00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:30,679
at bind wand and the bets do
raise intertras if bond and bondelike instrum istumus

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drop in value, the same income, so the process can survive financially survived

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00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:41,480
through that type horizon where the bond
drops in value but they still get the

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00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:48,159
same payment of income through that time
variated the bond matures at its value and

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00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:54,480
the bond like securities act similar to
that. And then the third thing is

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to take advantage of any long term
plays of money. You know, you

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00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,840
don't meet for income. You know, look around and some of the mega

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00:13:01,879 --> 00:13:05,120
tech stuff and see if there's anything
they need. Can buy out a data

156
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:11,600
because this idea, that arm that
just came out showed the market that ideas

157
00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:16,159
aren't dad. It's been about sixteen
months since they've been any sort of IPOs

158
00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:20,279
in the market. So those are
the three tips. Money you need for

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00:13:20,519 --> 00:13:28,919
income and stability, short buried securities, treasuries, short term accounts in bond

160
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:33,360
bond like instruments to provide you dividends
and interest. Also, one I didn't

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00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:37,480
mention dividend stocks. There's a lot
of dividends spots out there now. Dividend

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00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,399
stocks haven't done as well this year
next to new probo stocks because of the

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00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:48,840
AI movement, but the dividends stocks
normally will outperform in this sort of an

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00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,559
environment because you're getting paid everywhere.
You're really a nice quogly dividend cha that's

165
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,639
going to go back into your checking
accounts. So those are the best stits

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00:13:56,639 --> 00:14:00,879
that I can give. And you
know what, I've been in the business

167
00:14:00,879 --> 00:14:03,879
long enough with this gray or you
can tell that I know it works.

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00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,960
All right, here's a question for
you. We don't recommend stocks here.

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00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:11,960
I'm not a financial advisor like you. But I've been watching Verizon. It's

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yield is up to eight percent.
It's got really healthy cash flow. I

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00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:22,159
mean, they're the number one or
number two cell phone provider in the United

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00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:28,200
States. Right market maybe is not
as much of a growth market as it

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00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:33,879
was, but they've also got their
fiber network in the Northeast. Do you

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00:14:33,919 --> 00:14:37,039
go for that dividend there? What
are your misgivings about it? Put it

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00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:43,200
that way, I would not be
a layer necessarily in Verizon fullheartedly, although

176
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:48,480
I would probably hold a smaller position. I think we old a smaller position

177
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:54,000
in Verizon. Got to be careful
purity that you don't chase a dividend.

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00:14:54,919 --> 00:15:00,080
But sometimes you might get yourself into
a you know, a dividends trap or

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00:15:00,159 --> 00:15:03,519
you're you're just going for a eye
dividend. But I think Verizons one of

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00:15:03,519 --> 00:15:07,320
those companies, like some of the
megattacks said. You know, I think

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00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,480
they're got a too big to fail. I think they're going to be fine

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00:15:09,559 --> 00:15:13,840
long term, but the eight percept
dividend is a Sir Lincoln Colling, do

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00:15:13,919 --> 00:15:18,919
you think they'll cut the dividend?
I mean, they really can't cut the

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00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,759
dividend, can they? Well,
that's what rate hikes do. Right,

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00:15:22,679 --> 00:15:26,639
every two money and more above its
out of this every time interest free try

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00:15:26,799 --> 00:15:31,399
the value of all financial assets degrees. So obviously, if if there's no

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00:15:31,679 --> 00:15:35,679
rate of heights, all of these
cumpanies not does Verizon, They're gonna have

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00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,639
to cut their their rage. They
already did it. That's the mist.

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00:15:39,759 --> 00:15:43,639
A year ago they cut dividends so
that the fear of able could come in

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00:15:43,639 --> 00:15:46,440
and look like, you know,
oh we in our dividend, we're on

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00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:50,879
darket. Yeah, but you cut
the dividend last year, you know,

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00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,399
by several or sin so that you
knew you'd be able to match it this

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00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,879
year. So on yesterday, Gary, those things will you know, have

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00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:02,919
to all self adjust if rates go
ar, APO cancer produce all right,

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00:16:03,159 --> 00:16:07,240
I like it all right, So
it's a right Financial group dot com.

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00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:11,320
Make sure you click the link in
the show notes of this interview on Financial

197
00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:15,679
Survival Network dot com. While you're
there, sign up for your free newsletter.

198
00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:18,919
Got one going out any moment now, David, Always a pleasure,

199
00:16:19,039 --> 00:16:23,279
Thanks for stopping by, as always
a pleasure. Thanks for listening to carry

200
00:16:23,399 --> 00:16:30,679
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201
00:16:30,799 --> 00:16:37,240
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