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There's a race happening right now to
take over outer space in the twenty first

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century. The dominance of the United
States over space exploration is being massively challenged

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for the first time since their original
contest with the Soviet Union back in the

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nineteen sixties. And this new contender
is not here to mess around. They

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are making aggressive plans, and they
are turning those words into actions and accomplishments.

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A key point that NASA has struggled
with for a long time now.

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China has a much better chance of
winning the space race than most Americans realize,

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and this is something that we need
to be talking about. This is

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the space race. Let's start with
the big one, the race to the

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Moon. More specifically, this is
a competition to see who can establish a

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permanent base at the lunar South Pole, which is an area believed to be

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flushed with critical resources such as water
that would support a long term human presence

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on the Moon. In one corner
we have The Artemis Program is a joint

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effort between the United States, Canada, Japan, and Europe, among many

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other smaller agencies who have signed onto
the Artemis Accords, the newest of which

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being India. Which is very important
to note because just recently we watched India

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successfully land the first robotic lander at
the lunar South Pole. So this is

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a powerful coalition of nations. Though
let's not pretend that this isn't an American

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first operation. The US wrote the
Artemis Accords, and the entire program was

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set into motion by President Trump in
twenty seventeen. I somehow doubt that he

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did much consultation with international partners before
making that decision. Trump was also responsible

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for formally establishing the United States Space
Force, which is still a silly name,

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but is actually something that was very
much needed for this new era of

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space competition. The US military has
obviously been involved in the space program from

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the very beginning, but by creating
a dedicated branch focused on outer space activity

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these it shows the world that this
is something the US takes seriously, or

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at least as serious as you can
be taken with a name like Space Force.

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I mean, imagine if we had
called the Navy Water Force. Anyway,

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if there's anything that can be said
about Trump and his Vice President Mike

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Pence, it's that they understood the
consequences of being surpassed by China in the

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space race. The US had become
a sleeping hair while the Chinese remained a

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fast approaching tortoise. Now, I
want to go back to a quote from

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Mike Pence that was said in March
twenty nineteen, because it's as true now

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as it was back then. Make
no mistake about it. We are in

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a space race today just as we
were in the nineteen sixties, and the

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stakes are even higher. What we
need now is urgency. The United States

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must remain first in space in this
century as in the last, not just

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to propel our economy and secure our
nation, but above all, because the

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rules and values of space, like
every great frontier, will be written by

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those who have the courage to get
their first and the commitment to stay.

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That sense of urgency expressed by Pence
was spurred on by China's robotic moon landing

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in January twenty nineteen changy four,
which marked the first ever soft landing on

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the far side of the Moon.
China had shown the world that they could

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do something in outer space that no
one else had done before, and while

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landing a robot on the Moon in
the twenty first century might not sound like

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such a massive accomplishment. Keep in
mind that in the time since Changy four,

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we've seen India, Japan, and
now even Russia attempt to land their

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own robotic missions and fail to even
touch down successfully on the Moon. Every

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attempt resulted in a crash, landing
and destruction of the payload, until just

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last week, when India succeeded on
their second attempt, and to drive home

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the fact that this was no fluke, China went on to succeed with Changy

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five in November twenty twenty. This
was a complex mission involving anbiter lander rover

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and a sample return vehicle that launched
moon rock into space and transported it back

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to Earth. That was the first
time people had returned a sample from the

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Moon since the mid nineteen seventies,
and what we've seen so far from the

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Chinese is just the tip of their
lunar iceberg. This is a plan that

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China has been working on since two
thousand and four, a three phase lunar

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expansion program, and the current robotic
missions are only phase one. We are

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less than a year away from the
launch of Changese six, which will be

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China's second excursion to the far side
of the Moon, and more significantly,

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this mission will attempt the first ever
sample return from the Moon's far side.

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They're probably not going to discover something
unknown over there. The only difference between

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the two halves of the Moon is
that one side is always visible from the

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Earth and the other side is never
visible from the Earth. Don't ask why.

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It's kind of complicated, but the
point is that, yet again,

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China is doing something that no one
else has done four and they're making damn

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sure that everyone, especially the United
States, can see them do it.

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This will be followed up by Chang
E seven in twenty twenty six, China's

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most ambitious lunar mission, consisting of
an orbiter, lander, rover and hopping

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spacecraft designed to seek out water ice
in permanently shadowed areas of the Shackleton Crater

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at the lunar south Pole. The
Chang E eight will launch two years after

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that in twenty twenty eight and land
nearby Chang E seven carrying a robot designed

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to test three D printing bricks from
lunar regolith. This marks the end of

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China's Phase one lunar expansion. Phase
two is where stuff gets real. In

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the year twenty twenty nine, China
is going to land their first crew of

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taikonauts on the Moon. And I
say that this is something China is going

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to do and not something they are
planning to do, because twenty twenty nine

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will mark the eightieth anniversary for the
People's Republic of China and there is no

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doubt that the Chinese Communist Party will
take this opportunity to make a colossal move

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on the global stage. And like
we've said before, this is something that

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China has already planned out. There
are three main components to a successful human

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landing on the Moon, a heavy
lift rocket, a crew vehicle, and

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a lunar lander. We already know
what these components are going to be in

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the context of the Artemis program,
the SLS, the Orion and the Starship.

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China's heavy lift rocket of choice will
be their upcoming Long March ten.

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This vehicle is currently under development,
with a scheduled test flight for twenty twenty

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seven. Unlike their much more ambitious
and experimental Long March nine concept, the

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Long March ten leverages existing Chinese rocket
technology, namely their y F one hundred

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kerosene engine, and this should allow
for the rocket to move rapidly from the

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development phase to active service. Long
March ten will be a ninety meter tall

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three stage rocket that utilizes two liquid
fueled side boosters in addition to a center

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core booster, each of them fitted
with seven of the y F one hundred

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engines. So Long March ten is
going to look and function very similar to

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a SpaceX Falcon Heavy, with a
capability to deliver twenty seven metric tons to

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lunar orbit. China also has a
plan to make the three booster cores reusable

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by having them complete a propulsive landing, again very similar to a Falcon Heavy,

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except instead of landing legs, China
wants to catch the booster with a

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system of tight rope like wire tethers. The next key component is known as

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the NGCs, which stands for Next
Generation Crewed Spacecraft, and this is essentially

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a Chinese equivalent of NASA's Orion spacecraft
that is being used for the Artemis missions.

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The capsule supports a three person crew
and includes a service module for power

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and propulsion. While this vehicle is
still in development, China began full scale

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prototype testing as early as twenty sixteen. The third component is China's lunar Lander.

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This will allow out two astronauts to
reach the surface of the Moon and

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then return to orbit again. This
vehicle is also under development now because the

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Long March ten will only be rated
for twenty seven tons to lunar orbit.

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The execution of this plan will require
two separate rocket launches, one Long March

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ten to send the crewed spacecraft and
a second Long March ten to deliver the

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lunar Lander. Then the two vehicles
will rendezvous and doc in lunar orbit for

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crew transfer. It's a pretty similar
outline to the Artemis three mission profile.

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Much like the old Apollo missions.
The first Chinese stay on the Moon will

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be relatively short, just around six
to eight hours of exploration, sample collection,

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and conducting experiments. This will include
the use of an electric lunar rover

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that will have ten kilometers of driving
range. Now, I know what you

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might be thinking, this China thing
isn't really that big of a deal,

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because NASA is going to be landing
people on the Moon by twenty twenty five,

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and they'll have a full Artemis Moon
base in progress by the time China

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even arrives, will they? Though
I don't think there is any well informed

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person in the space community who honestly
believes that we are landing on the Moon

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in twenty twenty five. The signs
of progress are just not there right now.

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SLS and o'rian have flown one test
mission, which was very successful.

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That's good. The SpaceX Starship,
which is being counted on as our human

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landing system, has also made one
test flight which was not successful. That's

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bad. Obviously, there's nothing easy
about making a lunar capable super heavy lift

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rocket, but if you were to
put them on a spectrum, SLS would

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be right around moderate difficulty level,
while Starship is maxed out insanity levels of

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difficult. Plus we've already seen the
first NASA officials winding up to throw SpaceX

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under the bus for delaying the Artemis
three landing. NASA Associate Administrator Jim Free

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recently hinted that Artemis three may have
to go ahead without a Moon landing.

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Free said that NASA might change the
mission parameters to something more viable, and

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NASA has grounds to be worried.
SpaceX needs to figure out how to get

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Starship into orbit, which is going
to be very difficult, but they can

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probably do it. Then they need
to figure out how to get the gigantic

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upper stage back down from space in
one piece and stick the propulsive landing.

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That's going to require the equivalent of
a space miracle. Then SpaceX needs to

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figure out their orbital gas station and
tankership system. Then they need to build

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a variation of the starship that can
land on the Moon and keep two people

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alive there for five days. Then
they need to get that starship all the

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way to the Moon and land on
it. And then they need to do

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that flawlessly enough that NASA decides it
is safe to try again with people on

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board. Now I'm not saying that
that can't all be done in two years,

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but it does sound fairly preposterous.
So there is a non zero chance

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that the Chinese will beat NASA to
the first crewed moon landing of the twenty

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first century. And in any sensible
world, that shouldn't actually matter. We

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as human beings should just be stoked
that any person landed on the Moon.

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That is amazing. But the current
environment of global politics is not even the

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least bit sensible, and it's going
to be pretty bad for us as Western

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people if China manages to win the
biggest pissing contest of the twenty first century.

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But the thing about all of this
is that landing people on the Moon

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one time does not actually matter.
It's cool and stuff, but walking on

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the Moon is a relatively inconsequential flex
Just look at Apollo. The Americans walked

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on the Moon a few times,
and then they stopped, and then everything

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went right back to the way it
was before. The US failed to establish

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a lasting presence on the Moon.
But China will not make the same mistake.

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That's why they've already mapped out a
detailed plan for their own International Lunar

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Research Station, also known as a
moon base, announced in twenty twenty one.

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The ILRS will begin construction in the
twenty thirties and will be a fully

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autonomous, robotic installation at the lunar
South Pole. So the Chinese are going

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to touch ground on the Moon in
twenty twenty nine, just to show the

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world that they can, and then
they're going to spend the next decade using

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robotic missions to stake their own permanent
claim. Initially, this moonbase was supposed

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to be a joint venture between China
and Russia, but the whole Russia involvement

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slowly started to fade away as the
war in Ukraine intensified, and now in

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August twenty twenty three, as the
Russians attempted to prove their worth by landing

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on the Moon again for the first
time in fifty years, they actually ended

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up highlighting just how far their space
agency has fallen with the catastrophic failure of

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their Lunar twenty five rover, So
the idea that the Russians would play a

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major supporting role in the construction of
ILRS unlikely at this point. China has

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already far surpassed any capability that the
Russian or Soviet space program ever had even

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at their peak. In a recent
update to their plan for the International Lunar

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Research Station Initiative, China Space Agency
announced that they are actively recruiting new member

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countries to join in their future plans
to colonize the Moon. So instead of

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a partnership between two great powers,
the ILRS concept is now expanded to include

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Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates,
and the Asia Pacific Space Cooperation, which

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includes Turkey, Mongolia, Thailand,
Peru, Iran, and Bangladesh. China

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claims that there are an additional ten
countries and organizations currently in negotiation to join

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the initiative, among them being Malaysia
and Venezuela. The irs will be completed

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over the course of five missions in
the twenty thirties, and this is going

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to require the development of China's Long
March nine rocket, essentially their own equivalent

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of these Starship super heavy Long March
nine was first imagined a decade ago as

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a conventional super heavy lift rocket,
basically just a much bigger version of the

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current Long March five. But then
China saw what SpaceX had done with the

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Starship and they immediately pivoted Long March
nine to follow the same formula. The

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new Long March nine comes in two
varieties, a three stage rocket optimized for

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deep space exploration, and a two
stage heavy lifter to low Earth orbit.

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Stage one consists of a nine meter
diameter booster with thirty methane fueled engines,

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each delivering two hundred tons thrust,
So that's not quite as much power as

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a starship, but it's pretty damn
close. The main difference here is that

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instead of one gigantic upper stage like
Starship, Long March nine will have a

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second stage with two of the methane
engines to send the payload into orbital velocity,

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and then the third stage will have
a vacuum optimized hydrogen engine to achieve

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the translunar injection orbit. So overall, Long March nine will be less powerful

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than Starship, but also much lighter. It won't have the same mass to

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orbit capability, but Long March nine
will not require orbital refilling to reach the

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Moon. There are five ilrs landing
scheduled between twenty thirty one and twenty thirty

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five, each deploying a component of
the future moon base. ILS one establishes

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the command center with basic energy and
telecommunications facilities. Mission two brings lunar research

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and exploration facilities. Mission three is
all about in situ resource utilization technology.

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Mission four puts all of that into
use with a robotic exploration and experiment mission

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complete with a distributed sample collection and
return, and then Mission five will establish

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lunar based astronomy and Earth observation capabilities. When this is all said and done,

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the Chinese will have one hell of
a Moon base for themselves, and

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they're growing host of international partners to
begin advanced human operations on the Moon and

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at the same time NASA is proposing
to do something with their Artemis program.

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This is the worrying point. Aside
from the construction of their orbital Gateway station,

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which is awesome, NASA hasn't really
provided the same level of detail on

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just how they are going to go
about creating their own Moon base. And

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as we've seen, anytime NASA does
try and make a plan, it almost

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immediately false apart and gets delayed,
modified, and confused. And this is

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kind of the way that NASA has
always been. The US tendency to ping

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pong back and forth between democratic and
republican governments means that the people in charge

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are never on the same page for
more than eight years at a time,

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and even within those election cycles,
priorities can change drastically from year to year.

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So here's the thing. I think
most of us can agree that authoritarian

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dictatorships are bad. Like in general, it's a bad way to run a

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country and govern people, at least
in my opinion, But when it comes

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to making very complex and expensive,
long term plans like colonizing the Moon and

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actually following through with them, we've
got to admit that an authoritarian model like

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the Chinese Communist Party does have a
clear advantage in this area. So there

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is a very real chance that the
Chinese will win this new space race in

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this decade, and we've got to
at the very least start preparing ourselves for

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whatever the consequences of that power shift
might be