Well, China did engineer the biggest real estate bubble and human history, and
they haven't fixed that or anything. They've just been kind of paypering it over.
And you know, there's really no way to fix something. I mean,
in Japan tried to fix THEIRS with government spending plan after government spending plan,
but since the nineteen nineties they have been hobbled by their real estate bubble,
and China's kind of got the same thing going, except it doesn't have
the advantages that Japan had back then to allow it to just keep kicking that
can down the road, So they're going to have to deal with it pretty
soon. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable
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I'm your host, Kerry Lutz. Well, it's been quite a week.
The economy just doing fine, even while Europe is slipping into recession.
John Right yeah, and it kind of happened by the back door because they
revised past couple of months data, and that's what put Europe in recession.
The revisions, Yeah, retroactive recession or recession. Yeah, so they're they're
technically in recession, which you know, gives the ECB a little bit of
leeway even though inflation is way above DCB's target. If the EU is in
recession, maybe that that gives them their excuse to at least stop tightening and
maybe go back to using We'll see, But I think the US is maybe
our recession or our revisions will put us in recession here right now because we've
got a lot of weak numbers and some not so weak numbers, so it's
kind of a mix. But maybe a lot of the strong numbers have to
be taken away in the next couple of months and then we'll see. Well
look, I mean, honestly, if you look at the real rate of
growth over the past two years, it hasn't existed. So therefore all apparent
growth is generated by inflation deflator by it being incorrect. So when you really
look at it, Yeah, they could just up the inflation rate for the
past two years because nobody cares because that's in the past, we would be
in a recession and then we're ready to get out of it now, I
guess. Yeah, And when we were talking about recession before, I was
talking about official recession where they admit it. But yeah, you so many
of these numbers are so bogus or so open to revision, because that's kind
of the their strategy now, at least in the US. I'm not sure
it's done that way in other countries, but maybe, but the US will
put out a super favorable number and then revise it away over the next couple
of quarters or months or depending on the interval for the number, but nobody
sees the revisions. So all anybody sees is the super positive headline number,
and they're using that as a way to manage perceptions even as things get worse
and worse. So, you know, I'm sticking with my prediction that we're
in recession by year end and that six months after that the fet is back
to actively easy. So we'll see. But you know, I don't think
it's really hard a hard gat from here. You know, we could easily
tip over, and yeah, it's just a question of when the feed is
going to pivot. People say they're not going to and they're just gonna keep
raising rates. But look, housing is in the gutter, jobless claims are
up, all of these things that we're supposed to figure out, and then
if you look at China's exports and their imports, they're down the drain.
I don't see how you can ever recession in China without the rest of the
world feeling it. At this point, John, we'll see the way it
always works. If you go back to, for instance, nineteen nine,
two thousand or two thousand and six, two thousand and seven, the Fed
titans, and it continues to tighten until the financial markets break because it has
no other way of knowing, you know, whether it should still be tightening
or not. It just watches the financial markets, and when they break,
then it knows it's time to go back to easing. And so the same
thing is happening now. The Fed is just raising interest rates and raising interest
rates, even though they say they're going to stop this month, but they're
gonna pause this month, they'll go back to raising again pretty soon, and
they'll do that until something serious breaks. And there's a long list of things
that can break here going forward, I mean housing and commercial realists and cars.
And you saw the student loan thing right where they're going to go back
to making student loans payable now after two years of being free money. And
you know, a lot of the people who have student loans are the same
people that are maxing out their credit cards to pay day to day expenses.
So now dump of three or four hundred dollar bill for student loans on top
of that life and a lot of people are going to start defaulding on their
credit cards or their mortgages or their car loans or whatever, and boom,
we're in recession when that happens. So it could be that we're going to
look back on the student loan thing as the trigger or the next recession.
So not that it has to be, because there are lots of other things
that can go wrong, but that could easily be one because that'll hit consumer
spending very hard, and it'll hit credit card debt. It will make credit
card debt go up even further. So it's completely possible that we're already seeing
the pieces being put into place that will cause the next recession. You know,
it's amazing that every day I still get credit card offers at the same
time, while the whole thing's imploding. I guess the number. Not that
my credits are esteem are perfect, but I have nothing bad on it.
They're still offering credit consumer credit to quote unquote worthy consumers. Yeah, they
don't even like us because we don't pay late fees or carry balances. The
credit card companies make most of their money from balance interest and from late fees,
and you know the groups of people who pay those things tend to be
the most disadvantaged. You know, there's the people who are so ignorant they
don't know how credit cards work, or who are in such tough straits that
they have no choice but to carry a balance even though it charges from twenty
three percent a month interest, or generate a bunch of late fees because there
are some months when they just can't pay anything. So credit card companies are
you know, they're one step away from loan sharks. They are criminal enterprises.
Let me just say that out loud. But they don't like us,
you know, they don't like people who pay, who are boring, who
pay their balances off every month. Yeah, we don't. We don't make
anything for them. They're they're actively hoping that they can trick us into high
enough balances that we pop into that other category of people who have to carry
the balance and generate LAFE fees and stuff like that. So when when they
offer you a new credit card, carry, that's what they're trying to do.
They're trying to take you above your manageable limit. And you know,
what I'm getting is a bunch of balance transfer offers. So we'll only charge
three percent if you, you know, and no, thanks, I don't
want to play. But but yeah, And to the extent that they're they're
extending more credit to people in those other categories, or they're pushing more people
in our categories into those other categories. Credit cards are going to be one
of the big problems in the next recession because you know, there's always already
a trillion dollars a credit card debt, so that's going to explode pretty soon.
And you would think the credit card companies wouldn't like that and would actively
try to get out of it because then default spike. You know, they
lose a lot of money in a recession because the people they've been feasting on
just say screw it, I'm not paying these credit cards off, you know,
and take me to court. What are you going to do? I
have nothing? Yeah, I already have a rotten credit score. Well yeah,
you know it's funny because yeah, they just want to get your hooked
one easy credit and then eventually you'll be paying thirty percent. That's like the
rate now on carrying a credit card balance. Because of the vagaries of our
gap generally accepted accounting principles. It's like they reserve for the default up front,
so they actually get to reduce their profits anyway, so less taxable profits,
and then when things are bad, they just bump it up a couple
of points, but they're still making money on it. And you know,
I was in this world for a long time. Well, in the meantime,
something's going on in China. They know a gold buying is up there.
If you watch the videos, and you know, I think that there's
the equivalent of Radio Free Europe in Radio Free Asia on YouTube. A lot
of these channels seem to be like ultra nationalist, you know, hate China
channels, but there's enough truth in them to see that something very bad is
happening in China now. Massive youth unemployment, massive defaults. They're on a
mortgage strike four million people. It's like the global economy when it broke.
It really broke for China because they're just getting you know, unemployment is way
up. They think they have a thirty percent youth unemployment rate. And these
people are like living in these hovels so they don't have to pay rent.
I mean, something is happening there that's really bad, John, that we
don't even appreciate over here. Well, China did engineer the biggest real estate
bubble and human history, and they haven't fixed that or anything. They've just
been kind of pay perm it over and you know, there's really no way
to fix something. I mean, in Japan tried to fix theirs with you
know, government spending plan after government spending plan. But since the nineteen nineties
they have been hobbled by their real estate bubble, and China's kind of got
the same thing going, except it doesn't have the advantages that Japan had back
then to allow it to just keep kicking that can down their own. So
they're going to have to deal with it pretty soon. And you know,
it's not clear how you deal with something like that, because, like you
said, there are millions of people who already can't pay their mortgages, millions
more who are living in human conditions, and that they haven't even had the
actual crisis yet. There's still a lot of ghost cities out there and empty
buildings and people who have bought apartments but the apartments aren't even being built anymore.
So people, somebody gets screwed somehow. They're right, you know,
somebody has to eat that loss. And it almost doesn't matter who eats the
loss because it has the same general effect on the economy. It's somebody who
can't pay their bills. Going forward, the people eat the losses will be
the ones who are least able to afford it, just like in the United
States. And maybe we're missing the boat. Maybe we should be setting up
a resolution trust company in China to buy all these snap up all these defaulted
mortgages and just wait for it to turn around or is it never going to
turn around? There that question? We don't want those mortgages. Yeah,
Now that your dath would be a logistical nightmare to try to make sense out
of what's coming there. Um, but you know, we got another kind
of nightmare with commercial real estate here. There are a lot of buildings that
are semi empty and are going to have to be sold for half of their
original price, and somebody has to eat those losses. It's not it's not
clear ahead of time who's going to eat the bulk of those losses, but
it could be banks, could be hedge funds, pensine funds, insurance companies.
Yeah, all the bond holders, you know, the real estate bonds,
the mortgage backed security bonds on the cr bonds. Um. You know,
it's not clear, um who who has to suffer the bulk of this,
but it's probable that five or six different categories of big financial entities are
really going to get smacked by this. And it's coming pretty quickly now,
you know. It's that whole bust is accelerating. So I think that's a
second half of the year story that's going to have some hair raising numbers.
You you should, if you don't already, interview Will Richter because couple weeks
ago, okay, because San Francisco, like the biggest hotel company there,
just did some jingle mill and sent the keys to their hotels to their lenders,
and they say that the office buildings are are trading at a seventy percent
haircut. I was in Manhattan the past week, and look, there's tons
of construction, so there's always traffic in Manhattan, but really it's empty like
used to be. You'd walk out at lunchtime and there'd be like tons and
tons of people milling about. I don't know if they're scared of getting mugged
and they just don't go out of their office till they have to leave.
But I'm telling you that place is you can't call it a ghost town,
but it's definitely a bit spooky there. So carry you were just in Manhattan,
right, yeah. And it's smoky when you were there too, So
it was it like a zombie apocalypse with empty streets and smoke everywhere. And
you know, I didn't stay up on the news. And I'm on the
airplane and LaGuardia looking out and it's this white all around, and the person
says to me, look at that, and said, yeah, so that's
from the fires up in the Quebec in Canada. Because we got out just
in time, they closed the airports for a day or two. Next day,
I think there's Luguardia is still closed. But Kennedy and Newark were supposedly
open, but it was like some white Yeah, you never saw anything like
it. I mean it was pretty shocking. Se See, you guys on
the East Coast, you have your problems, you know, but that's not
supposed to be one of them. That's supposed to be our problem over on
the west, on the West coast, because we you know, we lose
like August every year now because it's just we're blanketed in snow or in smoke.
But that's as new for you. Yeah, hopefully it's not a regular
thing. Yeah, well, it happened about fifteen years ago, but not
this bad. I don't remember it being this bad. But you know,
I couldn't figure out why my sinuses were like in total rebellion, you know,
when it was. I came back on Tuesday instead of Wednesday, but
my sinuses were a mess. I'm like, what's going on. It must
be some kind of allergy or something as an allergy to smoke. But the
Tesla has got biodefense mode. So if you're going around in your tesla,
maybe have to live in your tesla for a week or two, you're going
to be okay because it's got the Heppa filter and biodefense mode. So even
if they if they do some biowarfare while they're at it, you'll be okay.
So you can just go out and sleep in your car. The smoke,
yeah, goes all the way down the east coast of Florida. Okay,
yeah, yeah, it's funny. My wife saw that. She's got
a lot of chemical sensitivities and stuff, so this is this is a real
thing for her. And she saw that in the Tesla pickup truck and we
had to have a long talk. I had to actively talk out of not
going out and buying a Tesla pickock truck because she was envisioning getting into the
bed and closing that steel door and turning on the fielder. You know.
Combine combine that with bulletproof windows and I'm just about sold. And bulletproof door
panels, you know, arden stainless rolled, stainless steel that'll stop forty five
caliber bullets from entering the cabin. So, hey, did you catch this
article? Twenty nine percent of young Americans are okay with government surveillance devices in
the home. Now, this is nineteen eighty four. Remember the screen in
nineteen eighty four and they monitored everything, and the thought police and everything else.
I mean, where did these kids go to school? And I mean
it's it's nuts. Yeah, this is truly terrifying because these guys, well,
you know, part of it is, like you said, where they
go to school? Because I think there's not a fundamental understanding of the First
Amendment and a limited government and what dictatorship truly means. Or you know,
let's say it's twenty two year old who has no sense of history, couldn't
couldn't find two different countries on a map, and they think, well,
you know, what the hell, let's have the government spy on those other
people's homes to keep them from doing bad things. You know, they don't,
they don't realize that that that will come back to bite them at some
point. But you know, one other way looking at this is that every
generation of kids has to find a way to freak its parents out, in
other words, too, to make that dividing line between you and my parents.
It's working. It's working. You know, half of them are trans
and the other half are fascists. It's uh. And there's a vend diagram
where some of them are both brands and fascists now, So yeah, it's
there's absolutely succeeding and freaking their parents out. Oh my goodness. Well,
I had a great discussion with my son in law where basically, without getting
too into it, I think you're allowed to say stuff now about baxing and
COVID and elections. But basically he said that I was right about everything about
the health issues we had for the past couple of years, and he himself
had had an ailment for over a year that he couldn't say for sure that
it was from the vax or whatever, but he felt pretty confident and he
was grateful that his kids didn't have to get it. So there is hope,
and don't give up hope on this generation yet because he was really like
a woke person two three years ago and now all of a sudden he gets
it. And this guy has got an IQ way higher, at least thirty
points higher than mine, and he brought into it all but no more.
Well, IQ was inversely related to attitude on vaccines here, so no surprise
that you're the smartest kid in your family was the most pro vaccine, but
too things about the first carry. Congratulations, you have moved into the next
stage of parenting where your kids come back and say, dude, you were
right. I'm still I'm still waiting for that. It's amazing how much,
you know, from the time I was seventeen to the time I was twenty
five. Was amazing how much my parents learned in eight years. But you
know, okay, the second thing I want to say about this is that
you know a lot of kids now they think what they think because they've never
had to consider survival as the thing they had to actually go out and make
happen. You know, They've never had to deal with real hardship. And
in the next few years, hardship is going to be the you know our
middle names. Things are going to be much much tougher, and you won't
see nearly as many kids or obsessing about the ideas that they obsess about now,
because they're going to be obsessing about where's my next meal coming from?
You know, that's the you know, major financial crises are not something you
should look forward to, but that is the one upside is that it educates
ignorant people very quickly about the important things in life. Yeah, it's my
next meal is coming from my food stamp allocation of course, my EBT card,
you know, goes on EBT cards. Everyone knows that, so we'd
be remiss. We're talking about RFK Junior prequel and Tucker Carlson, and the
two of them kind of have like an alliance almost now. Tucker Carlson storm
Twitter, and I think that's the death knell of Fox because they're trying to
say he breached his contract. You know, they've already lost half their audience,
two thirds of the paying audience twenty five to fifty four. If they
sue Tucker Carlson. How many people are going to be left watching this station?
Yeah, so this is a illustration of how big Tucker Carlson is.
He posts a video on Twitter her okay, which isn't even a place where
people normally post and minute videos, and it it's what is it now,
seventy million views or something like that's something that dwarfs. Yeah, MSNBC,
CNN and Fox did not have one tenth combined. It didn't have one tenth
of Tucker Carlson's viewership from a Twitter video. Yeah. And you know the
funniest part of this is you knew, you know who Taylor Lorenz is,
right, Okay, worse, worse human being on her. But anyhow,
she posted a thing about how, oh this shows how he's never going to
make it and he look, he looks so out of place, and that's
a Chensey video and he's not going to get viewers on Twitter. And she
posted that kind of quickly. And now now that it's up to seventy million,
I don't I don't think she's going to be revisiting that subject. Yeah,
dumbest person in the world. So Tucker's got the media industrial comm spooked.
And look, I could go into a whole thing about restrictive covenants in
New York. I sued. I had four cases in my i illustrious legal
career, and I lost every single one of them, even though it was
right on the law. I lost every single one. The only time I
won was when they stole customer lists. There's no way to stop him,
even though they're saying, well, we're paying you twenty five million not to
compete with us. Technically under New York law, that will work, except
that when you go to the court and he says, well, I don't
want the twenty five million, I just want to talk. That's going to
be the end of that, they can't win the case. It will just
damage the brand even worse. But just like Tucker's got the media industrial complex
on the balls of their heels, RFK has got the Dems spooked and on
the balls of their you know what. Okay, two things here. One
is do you think when they were writing Tucker Carlson's contract if he'd said,
you know, you don't care I post on Twitter once in a while,
do you they would have said, sure, we don't care. Right,
So there's no way his contracts can actually cover or forbid Winter posts because that
that wouldn't have been considered competition or Fox Now all right, so he wins
that, um, the non compete thing with no trouble. And the other
thing is, yeah, um, RFK Junior turned out to be a serious
political stud Um. He and Tucker Carlson must never ride in the same car
now on the fly, at the same time, the same plane. It's
deep staying well, just they'll see that as a twofer in tone where we
only have to blow up one vehicle to kill both of these guys. They'll
go for it just reflexively, and they don't get many two fers. I'm
sure not that easy. Look. They don't really look. They only terminate
with extreme prejudice when they have to. They rely on the media to do
the character assassination, which in this day and age is generally enough, except
that everything bad about this guy has already come out. I mean, there's
like files, and I know some of it personally, having lived in the
same areas him for a number of years, him and his sister and Antiquoma,
like forget it, like the guy's bulletproof. I don't think any moral
or ethical quandary ever enters into why somebody votes for Kennedy. Yeah, well,
you know, and I think Trump kind of softened us up or stuff
like that. I mean, you know, anything that somebody's done now you
immediately go. But didn't Trump do even worse? And he was president?
And then there that's the end of the discussion there, you know. And
but you're right, m With a candidate, you know, you get good
and bad. With the Kennedy you get the name recognition that's that guarantees you
ten percent right off the bat in any Democrat election, But you also get
the assumption of horrendous moral deficiency. Right, we just assume Kennedy's there's terrible
people in real life, so yeah, I'm never disappointed either. They're not
so far disappointing. And just to read the needle here, they both said
that a certain three letter agency was responsible for the assassination of rfk's uncle.
They both said it like definitively like based on you know, experience, fact
and all that. So right there, it marks the two of them as
an existential threat to the string really running things. John. The CIA can
never allow some to become president whose relatives they've killed, right, because then
the president will dig into their their durty. Oh yeah, yeah, that's
true. They can never let this happen. Boy JFK is brave or RFK
is brave you know, uh, GEK more crazy than brave. But then's
my personal opinion. Hey well military, right, you got to be a
cepath to want to be president and that all requirement. That's true, that
that is kind of an assumption that you're at least a narcissist if you're running
for president, but but self destructive. You got to call it self destructive
if you you're reasonably sure that the CIA will kill you if you get close
to the presidency and you try for it anyhow, that's great. Well,
hey, censors they are. Hey, we're just exercising opinion dot fact and
all that good stuff. Well, I think we'll leave it at that.
John, make sure you go over to John's substack Robino dot substack dot com,
sign up, subscribe to his substack, and questions comments kl atcarry Lutz
dot com. We'll answer as quick as we can. Write your YouTube comments
below. John, We'll see you in a week and a half. Thanks
cars, see you. Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,