WEBVTT

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Howdy, and welcome to the Three
True Outcomes podcast, presented by Baseball Perspectus.

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I'm your host, Ian Leftcootz,
and joining me as always are Ben

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Murphy and Jared Weiss. And if
you think that's quicker than usual, that's

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because we have a lot of show
to get to. We are going to

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be talking about the scoresheet, mock
draft, and we have some guests.

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So I am going to turn it
over to Jared now to take us through

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the next few minutes. Two out
an hour every many minutes it takes.

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Yes, I got additional duties.
I get upgraded from LV gaptain. This

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is very exciting. Joining us from
Connecticut. Please welcome Nate Stevens. Nate,

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how are you. I'm good.
How are you? I'm doing well.

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Thanks, and we have more than
one guests. This is super exciting.

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Joining us from California. Please welcome
John Army, John, how are

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you? Hey? I'm doing dandy. Good to be here. Man.

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That's exciting. That's a lot of
energy. Yeah, John's got too much

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energy. I'm on the correct coast
where it's you know, still bright and

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early uh not, you know,
time to fall asleep. But what I

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like about that most is that it's
a podcast. But as you know,

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everybody on these coast is tired all
the time. That is my understanding.

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So you accurately guess yes, um, but sorry, so go ahead.

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So I guess we should introduce what
is the scoresheet mock draft? Yes?

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Boy, um, so I'll take
that one. Take great question. Ian.

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The scoresheet mock draft is a annual
tradition, I don't know how many

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years. If anyone here knows,
feel free to jump in. UM led

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by past guest and uh uh scoresheet
uh man about town Brandy Barry Jones,

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um, in which a number of
scor sheet experts and and others and yeah

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yeah, but mostly expert And we
had a very good year this year.

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I think our get together to kind
of mock draft make December a little bit

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better and also rag on each other
for the picks that they have made.

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UM. Just to start off with, like how to follow along with this

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conversation. We'll try to make the
conversation as easy as possible for you.

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But if you want to get the
results of the mock draft, we will

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either probably leave them in the show
notes. Yes, and if you can't

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find it there you can go to
groups dot Yahoo dot com. It turns

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out you actually can't google it and
type in score sheet mock draft, and

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then you can get a little bit
of the conversation. You can also go

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to the mock draft league in scoreesheet, which is bl mock draft, and

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then if you know the trick on
how to get archive results, you can

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get archive transactions. It's typing backslash
archive backslash twenty eighteen into the transactions field.

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It'll change your life, I promise. Okay, on with the show.

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I think on Scorcia Talk, one
of the most frequently asked questions is

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where to get a clean copy of
the mock Jeff slash me similar. So

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I think let's just start off with
what do you guys, how do you

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guys find the mock Jeff useful in
terms of real leagues? So obviously it's

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fine, we all get together,
we make jokes and we have a good

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Jeff. But how do you all
find or not find the mock Jeff to

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be useful? I'll start with you
Niate. Yeah, so I think it's

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extremely useful from a benchmarking perspective.
You know there's going to be outliers there's

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going to be people that disagree,
but it gives you a general sense of

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you know, hey, there's twenty
four people in the league. At least

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one other owner values this player in
this way, right, So you know

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I use that a lot in trades
in the offseason or early in the season.

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You know, hey, this person
went in this round. You know

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this is pretty similar to this,
so maybe we match up. So I'll

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do a lot of that. And
then the other thing is, you know,

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I think you you do learn a
lot. You know, I'm pretty

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vocal in the group about picks,
but I myself learned a ton. You

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know. Paul gold Schmith's the one
I always put out there that I had

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not a lot of interest in him, and then Bill Sanders took him one

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year and made a pretty compelling case
and flipped a switch when all in on

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Goldsmith got him in a couple of
leagues. So you know, it's like

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that. Every year there's at least
one, if not a handful of players

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that you kind of get a better
sense of. And oh, maybe I'm

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more interested now than I was before
it started. And John I agree heavily

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with date. Obviously, the Goldsmith
thing is one that the Goldschmid type players,

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the guys who somebody else picks,
who you say, well, wait

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a second, that doesn't look quite
right to be that high, and then

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you look at it you say,
okay, well maybe I needed to prep

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better. It. Also, it's
a first chance, a first cut at

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kind of prepping for a d figuring
out where people go. Plus it's the

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fun of getting to do a startup
draft without committing yourself and ending up in

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you know, twelve leagues at a
time, So it does have that advantage.

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My wife always points out when I
tell her I'm doing a mock draft.

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She points out that our other drafts
are also not real. So this

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is a fake, fake draft.
But I enjoyed a great deal. I

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enjoyed prepping ford I enjoy doing it. The fake fake draft is one of

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my wife's favorite quips about the mock
draft. Also, does she say that

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about mock trials as well. No, because actual trials are real, our

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drafts are not real. Trials are
real, so a mock trial makes sense.

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But mock draft is really a mock
mock draft because obviously the fantasy leagues

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when we draft from my trout,
he does not come to our house and

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play in the backyard fair American jurisprudence
today. Um, So I want to

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get it into the meat of the
draft in a second. But first,

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John and they you normally don't own
a team together. But in the mock

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draft you mocked. Did you mocked? You mocked? Yes? YEAHS co

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owned the mock draft team. Um, whereas normally your separate entities team DdO

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has found the joint experience to be
rewarding, or at least that's what they

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tell me to my face. But
how did you find uh mocking together as

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opposed to owning separate teams. I'll
hit this one first. I think the

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we've done this now for two years, and last year it was sort of

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an accident, and this year we
did it with malice aforethought, and I

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think we learned something from year one
to year two because we're both we both

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have strong opinions. Uh, we're
both uh, we both have strong personalities,

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and uh, you know, we're
both competitive in everything including fake fake

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drafts. So we ended up having
good conversations about a lot of players,

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and I think we ended up trying
to be a little more deferential in our

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first draft, and we were a
little stronger I think in this one in

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finding the points where we were going
to defer or not defer. And so

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I felt like I felt like this
year's draft coming out of it, I

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was pretty happy with the results.
And it's fun to talk to Nate because

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you know, generally in NorCal obviously
he's failed because he was behind me last

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year, and he's behind me in
our ranking system, and he's behind me

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I think morally, intellectually and politically, and I do like to stress that

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just this moment, while I have
the chance, I should probably let Nate

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talk at this point, Well,
I really missed the opportunity a couple of

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years ago when I won twice and
three years and went to three straight World

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Series. Really should have rubbed that
in a little bit more when I had

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the chance. Apparently I was up
against this, but no, I mean

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back to the draft. I mean, I agree with John. I mean

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I think we definitely got better in
the second year. I think the first

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year was more of like, oh, well I don't really want to do

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that, so but you know,
go ahead. Uh, And this year,

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um, we kind of just would
like veto individual players like, hey,

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we don't really have a lot of
consensus on this guy. Let's not

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let's not do that. Um,
And you know, if I have a

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guy first and you have a guy
fifth, you know, especially in like

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the mid or later rounds, like
that's that's a lot of consensus. So,

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um, we did that, and
I think it. I think it

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worked out better. You know,
last year, at the time, I

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didn't not like our draft, but
I think in retrospect it was kind of

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okay. You know, this year's
draft, I feel a lot more confident

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about coming out of it. Jared
and Ian and I avoid that problem wherein

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Ian is the only one that knows
anything about anything, so we just do

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whatever Ian says. I'm not sure
I agree with that logic, but yeah,

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no, I think there's I think
there's an interesting aspect of like,

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as people who have done this for
a very long time, Like I like

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working in teams, I don't.
I don't know if I particularly would like

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to run get a team solo personally, just I like discussing and dialectic.

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But I think there's an interesting thing
that you were kind of hitting on of

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the difference between let's say, just
like seating your territory and compromise and like

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understanding where it's like, just because
somebody has a strong opinion doesn't necessarily mean

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that it's the right one. And
it's like going into a one for you,

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one for me scenario might not be
ideal, but you know, I

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think saying like, okay, we
both have this person high you know,

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I don't know. I wonder if
you feel like consensus picks end up doing

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better than the ones where you feel
like you're more one of you is more

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out on a limb. I think
it's a question of expertise. I mean,

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one of the mistakes LI was not
getting Miles Nicholas, which we could

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have done if I had listened to
Nate. And one of the things NATA

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has better expertise on foreign leagues.
And so it's really a question of finding

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the areas in which we're which we're
likely to be better. And there's still

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some room for deferring, but there
should be a reason for that. And

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if so, I think we found
a better a better fit this year.

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Yeah, And I think one thing
you can say from that is that the

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team that drafted Miles Michelis last year
really understood teamwork the best. Sorry,

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go ahead, so let's get into
the draft a little bit maybe, And

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I don't want to go through all
the pixel or all our picks, but

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I thought it might make sense to
start with the first round. In our

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first pixel, we were both in
the top five. So first Mike trent

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Win does any won't have any problems
with that? Who you'd be out of

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your mind not to pick Mike Trout. And it's a huge advantage to get

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the one seed. Trout is different
than everyone else. He's still better than

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everybody else. He's gonna be better
than everybody else. There's really not an

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issue. I meant to ask this
of the of the comments section, and

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for those who are missing at the
comment section, one of the best reasons

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to subscribe, like and you can
kind of go back to the Yahoo grip

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and look through it. Um,
what year do you think is the first

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year that Mike Trout will not go
number one in the mock draft? You

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had to guess. I was trying
to think, how, oh does he

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know twenty eight? He's twenty eight? Yeah, Um, I'd give it

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three years, yeah once once he's
thirty one. Yeah, So I think

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like one of like Son and one
of those guys have going instead. Yeah,

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I think it'll be an early twenties
guy. And at that point you're

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looking at eight, nine, ten
years of differ rents. Yeah, someone

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will weigh that more. I'm not
saying that's right, but it's at least

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colorable in a couple of years.
Yeah, And I think you guys may

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have staked a claim on which person
you think might be the next one one.

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We'll get their shadow, yeah in
a second. But since we're here,

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I think John, you have a
point to lead you a little bit

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about startup leagues and if you were, if you were starting a new one,

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you wouldn't have randomly assigned picks,
but you'd have some other system.

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And I'm going to guess that has
something to do with Mike Chad. In

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any league, almost in any league
you're in, if you do a standard

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back and forth snake draft, the
early round pick, the earlier picks are

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going to have an advantage because remember
one of the things Bill James taught us

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is that baseball talent is the far
end of a bell curve. It's not

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a bell curve. So as you
go up that I mean being ahead as

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you go in lower rounds, being
had an round is worth less than it

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is at the very top. So
you'd have to have you have to have

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some kind of auction or some kind
of distribution system if you want it to

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be fair. If you don't want
it to be fair, if you want

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it to be lucked, and fine, but otherwise you have to have some

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kind of distribution system, an auction
system for not just pick one, but

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I think other picks too. I
think all the way down until people lose

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interest, in which you either give
up picks or you reduce picks down to

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the end of the draft. If
you're not doing that, then the trout

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water is a huge, huge deal. I talked about that with Matt Houser,

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who sort of won the quick and
dirty way we calculated it, and

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one of the advantages he had was
that he had the chance to get trout.

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One of the other advantages he had
as he outdrafted everybody else and still

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would have won even without that.
But the h but it really is.

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It's a huge thing. And so
if you're if you're gonna run a league,

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if you're gonna start, if you're
gonna do a startup league, you

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want to make sure you do that, especially if you have sophisticate an actor.

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It's like I think we all are. Yeah, yeah, oh go

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ahead, sorry sorry, um yeah. I think that's always the case,

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which John said. I think it
just Mike Trout being who he is exacerbates

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that right now and not doing that
just is a really big mistake, a

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bigger mistake than usual. Not to
cross sports, but it's like when LaDainian

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Tomlinson was scoring like twenty to thirty
touchdowns every year and he was like the

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number one pick every single year and
Fantasy football, and everyone just started throwing

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their hands up and it's like,
this is this massive advantage. So they

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started doing like third round reversal and
they tried to do some other things to

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counteract that. That's that's who Mike
Trout is, the Ladamian Thomlinson of baseball.

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Oh as somebody who lives the Jets
territory. That's really ominous. I

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can't wait to reprobusted Mike Trout in
a decade. No, I was just

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going to add that we have been
subject to this rule all twice now,

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once in joining VP dork Coal and
once this year in VP Kings. And

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you can hear about that experience in
an earlier podcast. Um, it's really

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good, and it's really good for
us because now we have Mike Trout.

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But we were we were big fans
and like we were willing to spend for

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the first pick um in both cases
and some team other teams were not,

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And I think being able to make
that choice was really appealing to us.

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Moving all the way down to the
next pick um made by a tree of

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charming and handsome gentleman. I think
we had a discussion here, Um,

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John Nada, I guess I'm curious
to see what you guys think of our

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pick of Francisco Lindor as number two
overall. U were you hoping that he

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would follow? Did you expect that
he might? Were you happy we took

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him? Yeah? I jn sou
it was what I expected. Um.

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I told John before the draft that
I thought Lindor and Bets would go to

220
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three in some order. Um.
I don't have a huge preference between the

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two, but I do think they
are the right picks. I think,

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you know, there's the exciting trio
of baseball players that can't drink yet that

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we'll get to in a minute.
But I still think Lindor and Bets are

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are worth it. They're both just
so good right now, they're both still

225
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very young, that they belong there. Yeah. I agree. I I

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wasn't just convinced that Lindoor and Bets
would go to three, but Nate was

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right, and so it was.
And there's good reason for Lindoor to be

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number two. I mean, he
solves a problem for you for for a

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decade. He's really good. There's
he's a completely sensible number two. And

230
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anyway you have with think because we
didn't land on the door right away,

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there's some back and forth there.
Yeah, so it's sort of, you

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know, we were trying a thing, and we'll talk about our strategy a

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little later, but we were thinking
about kind of, I think, structuring

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the question a little differently. So
first we kind of just thoughted between Lindor

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Bets and let's say Alex s Bregman
I think was up there, Manny Machado

236
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was up there, Jose Ramirez was
up there and just deciding like essentially who

237
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the best player is. And we
kind of came to that same Lindoor Bets

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conclusion. We had Soto Kunia and
Flat Junior, which I guess we can

239
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name them. They're not like Baltimore
in a in a bucket and then you

240
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know, arrange them in a certain
way and then said like, okay,

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now what team do we want,
which is probably not exactly the way to

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do it, like you should probably
just line up players in terms of value,

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But I think we were also thinking
about like how much this would affect

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our strategy, and you know,
are the extra six years worth it?

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So I'm happy with Lindoor. Obviously
I would like him to not have gotten

246
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hurt like two days into the draft
to make us look good, but you

247
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know we're getting in for the next
ten years in this theoretical league. So

248
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um yeah, I still no regrets. So Bet swin third, then Machado

249
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and then Nat and John you guys
had the fifth pick and took one Sodo

250
00:18:18.759 --> 00:18:21.960
there. Um was there a lot
of discussion there? How did you end

251
00:18:22.000 --> 00:18:29.319
up on Soto? Well, uh, we had we there was some discussion

252
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as to what we would do.
I think we had we ended up with

253
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our list being trout Lindor, and
then because I was an agitator, h

254
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Soto at three. But I am
I'm absolutely I am not confident between Soda

255
00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:48.920
Acuna and vlad which one of those
guys is going to be the best out

256
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of those. But man Soto had
an age nineteen season that was just crazy.

257
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Throw it an eight here. Yeah, yeah, I would say,

258
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I'm like thirty four, thirty two, thirty two between the three of those.

259
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I think the real answer is just
yes, Like, if you can

260
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get any of those guys in the
top ten of a startup draft, you

261
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just do it and say thank you
and move on. Um, you know,

262
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it'll be super fun to see which
ends up the best. But I

263
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don't. I wouldn't argue with anyone
that picked those three in any order.

264
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Yeah, well, I mean,
certainly we have to take into account that

265
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Vladimir Greer juniors own GM said that
he was not a major league player in

266
00:19:27.240 --> 00:19:34.119
the moment, So you know,
we'll let that wigh in. But um,

267
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well, let's let's have that discussion
now since it has to happen every

268
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mock draft. So like we're talking
about Soto and Kun you win a lad

269
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Win nine, We're why were prospects
taken too early? Why when will his

270
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madness end? Someone please make it
stop? Blad of course is uh he

271
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Blad, It's not a normal prospect. Um, he's not a normal human.

272
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I think I think Nate as always
said we're drafting prospects too high and

273
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we should stop. Isn't that what
you said, Nate? That's that's pretty

274
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close. Yeah, it's our long
natural nightmare. We have the argument.

275
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We have the argument each year,
and uh, Nate and I are trying

276
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to I think there's the old saying, UM, build a man of fire

277
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and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and

278
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he'll be warm the rest of his
life. And in this case, I

279
00:20:30.680 --> 00:20:33.960
think we're ready to set the people
on fire. Who keeps saying that the

280
00:20:34.119 --> 00:20:40.960
prospects aren't are taken too early,
Um, it just hasn't. It's not

281
00:20:41.279 --> 00:20:45.519
true. Um, it's just not
empirically true. Because if you hit on

282
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one of these guys, if you
drafted one Soto last year, um,

283
00:20:48.920 --> 00:20:52.160
in anything other than the first fifteen
picks, you're a huge winner for the

284
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rest of your life. And if
you look back at the old drafts,

285
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I mean, if you take too
low and round sixteen or round fifty and

286
00:21:00.720 --> 00:21:03.039
these all these other picks. Now, sure a lot of them wash out,

287
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but the goal is to end up
with you know, three, four

288
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or five baseline players wore studs,
and at that point it gives you a

289
00:21:10.880 --> 00:21:14.359
lot of room for error else Yeah, I think that's the key when you

290
00:21:14.359 --> 00:21:18.000
think of it as trying to build
a core and having those players have a

291
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lot of time to develop into being
part of that core. That's what makes

292
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the difference for some people. I've
heard a lot of people talk about like

293
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the relative risk of the prospects also, and I think it's important to make

294
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sure everybody's mindful of the relative risk
of all the major leaguers. Also.

295
00:21:33.799 --> 00:21:38.640
I think it's the other big counter
argument that's easy to dismiss with a little

296
00:21:38.640 --> 00:21:42.480
bit of evidence. Yeah, And
I'm fully with you, Ben, I

297
00:21:42.640 --> 00:21:45.519
say that all the time. I
mean, you know, the way to

298
00:21:45.559 --> 00:21:48.960
do it is like, Okay,
show me your third through fifth round picks

299
00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:51.680
for the last five years and show
me how you never missed. Yeah.

300
00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:56.200
Right, and then that quickly crumbles, right, because people's hit rates even

301
00:21:56.200 --> 00:21:59.400
in the third or four fifth round
are not very high. They're a lot

302
00:21:59.440 --> 00:22:03.119
lower than you thing they are.
I will say though, that I think

303
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the mock's gotten a lot better.
I think this was probably the best year

304
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we've ever had in terms of evaluations. You know, the prospects to go

305
00:22:11.240 --> 00:22:15.079
to early crowd was very very very
small this year, which was good.

306
00:22:15.559 --> 00:22:18.720
And I think our quality of drafter
keeps going up, so I think it's

307
00:22:18.720 --> 00:22:22.720
a better benchmark and really it's ever
been, which is pretty great. Can

308
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I ask a question of the group
about that, because I think this came

309
00:22:25.160 --> 00:22:30.119
up a little bit in some of
the discussion that and so I'll just say,

310
00:22:30.200 --> 00:22:33.640
like I'll preface this, like,
my personal opinion is generally to agree

311
00:22:33.680 --> 00:22:37.039
with what Nate said about the quality
of the average participant in the mock draft

312
00:22:37.079 --> 00:22:41.160
has gone up, and I think
the mock draft benefits from that, and

313
00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:44.599
so to all the people that are
following it. But I think there was

314
00:22:44.640 --> 00:22:51.559
some concern that there's maybe too much
agreement, or maybe there will be a

315
00:22:51.599 --> 00:22:57.359
point where there's too much agreement and
that's not necessarily constructive at least that's like

316
00:22:57.440 --> 00:23:02.279
the perspective that I heard. And
I think if you wanted to carry that

317
00:23:02.319 --> 00:23:06.599
a little bit further, and I'm
not sure that this is what the person

318
00:23:06.680 --> 00:23:08.799
was necessarily saying in starting the discussion, but if you want to carry that

319
00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:12.680
a little bit further, you could
run into some issues of groupthink or a

320
00:23:12.759 --> 00:23:18.880
situation where the mock draft is not
nearly as generally relevant and applicable to folks

321
00:23:18.400 --> 00:23:23.079
unless they're sort of of that same
mindset as the people who are doing the

322
00:23:23.119 --> 00:23:26.559
mock draft. If you if you
do get into that situation, do you

323
00:23:26.559 --> 00:23:30.720
guys think that's a problem now going
to be a problem in the future.

324
00:23:30.920 --> 00:23:36.759
Is it has anything to be concerned
about. I'll take this one first.

325
00:23:37.000 --> 00:23:41.359
No. I think part of it
is, you know what the role of

326
00:23:41.359 --> 00:23:47.319
the mock draft is, and I
feel like there is like it is not

327
00:23:47.440 --> 00:23:52.960
your draft. It is on some
level to reflect group think. If it

328
00:23:53.000 --> 00:23:57.079
works well, the same way that
the top hundred prospects lists have probably converged

329
00:23:57.519 --> 00:24:03.359
over time. You know, I
think there's probably an element of group thing,

330
00:24:03.559 --> 00:24:07.319
but it's also consensus from which you
can work in your own opinions.

331
00:24:08.119 --> 00:24:15.359
I also think probably whatever aspect of
group think there is probably gets overwhelmed by

332
00:24:15.559 --> 00:24:19.079
having more correct picks. You know, I don't think unless you are in

333
00:24:19.119 --> 00:24:25.839
the draft, you know, I
don't think it is as relevant like who

334
00:24:25.960 --> 00:24:30.119
is taking who when I think just
having them having the draft available as a

335
00:24:30.119 --> 00:24:37.160
resource later probably just benefits from having
a more consistent point of view that you

336
00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:41.640
can then work off. Yeah,
I would agree. I would say I'm

337
00:24:41.680 --> 00:24:48.319
like nine anti that position. Maybe
five percent worries about it a little bit,

338
00:24:48.279 --> 00:24:52.240
But I mean I think group thinks
a good thing when it's because you

339
00:24:52.279 --> 00:24:56.640
have a bunch of super successful owners
that are coming together and you know there's

340
00:24:56.640 --> 00:25:00.720
certain strategies that work better than others
over time. So um, I think

341
00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:03.680
that's what you get here. Now, if you have a scenario where there's

342
00:25:03.720 --> 00:25:07.680
a whole bunch of people that are
doing really well, it's course she that

343
00:25:07.720 --> 00:25:11.000
aren't in the mock or people use
types of valuations or strategies that they do

344
00:25:11.039 --> 00:25:14.839
and they're not there, then yeah, then you have a group think problem.

345
00:25:14.920 --> 00:25:15.960
But I don't think that's the case
today. I think we have a

346
00:25:17.000 --> 00:25:21.839
super strong group that's very representative of
the people doing well and where she and

347
00:25:22.000 --> 00:25:26.000
I think the argument that argument is
a little bit. Hey man, all

348
00:25:26.039 --> 00:25:29.559
you people are going to operate as
if the Earth is a sphere and you

349
00:25:29.559 --> 00:25:32.839
don't. You're not gonna put anybody
in here who's gonna tell us the Earth

350
00:25:32.920 --> 00:25:34.640
is flat? Are we gonna really
deal with this? Are we gonna deal

351
00:25:34.640 --> 00:25:38.039
with this kind of groupthink where everybody's
gonna think the same way. Everybody's forced

352
00:25:38.119 --> 00:25:42.640
into the same model. Um,
and I think that's uh so I have

353
00:25:42.839 --> 00:25:56.160
as much I agree with everybody else. Follow up a question? Sorry,

354
00:25:56.200 --> 00:26:04.440
go ahead, UM, so you
someone mentioned the successful strategies that they're potentially

355
00:26:04.599 --> 00:26:10.000
leading to what some people called groups
think. Um, what are some strategies

356
00:26:10.000 --> 00:26:14.839
that you al saw emerge in this
mock? And um, you know that's

357
00:26:14.880 --> 00:26:21.200
that's been born out of previous mocks
as well. Uh yeah, I mean

358
00:26:21.240 --> 00:26:23.519
I'll point out a few things.
The one is draft young players. Um,

359
00:26:23.799 --> 00:26:27.279
you know, there were not a
lot of thirty plus players draft in

360
00:26:27.319 --> 00:26:30.000
the first round. I'm not even
sure if there was one this year.

361
00:26:30.599 --> 00:26:33.279
Um, don't draft pictures in the
first round. You know, there's the

362
00:26:33.319 --> 00:26:37.279
Clayton Kershaws Jephson, which you can
use for a number of years, but

363
00:26:37.319 --> 00:26:40.079
other than that, you probably shouldn't
be drafting a picture. No pictures went

364
00:26:40.119 --> 00:26:44.160
in first round this year. So
I think those are two good ways to

365
00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:48.599
start your draft. If you can
draft a twenty to twenty five year old

366
00:26:48.039 --> 00:26:51.880
a really good hitter, um,
that's a that's a good place to be.

367
00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:53.640
So you're saying take it, David
Price. Third, overall, it's

368
00:26:53.680 --> 00:26:57.279
a bad plan. Yeah, uh, in in this year, yes,

369
00:26:57.319 --> 00:27:03.880
a few years ago. Also,
yes, do you guys think if Kershaw

370
00:27:03.920 --> 00:27:07.039
had been healthy it would have been
reasonable to see him middle of the first

371
00:27:07.079 --> 00:27:12.599
round? Yeah, I mean second
half, some twenty six year old,

372
00:27:12.759 --> 00:27:18.480
super healthy, no worries about his
arm or anything else. Kershaw, Yeah,

373
00:27:18.519 --> 00:27:22.559
absolutely know, he gets an exception. He's that much better than everyone

374
00:27:22.599 --> 00:27:26.839
else. But that Kershaw doesn't exist
anymore. Right, He's older, he's

375
00:27:26.880 --> 00:27:30.799
had problem staying healthy, he's hurt
right now. Um so yeah, not

376
00:27:30.240 --> 00:27:37.839
not anymore. Yeah. And I
don't even think there's necessarily a consensus on

377
00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:42.480
who the number one picture is.
I don't like no one immediately springs to

378
00:27:42.519 --> 00:27:49.319
mind for a continuing league, um, I would say, And this kind

379
00:27:49.359 --> 00:27:53.640
of details into what our strategy was, because there was a there was an

380
00:27:53.640 --> 00:27:57.480
aspect where we kind of saw the
writing on the wall, and um,

381
00:28:00.119 --> 00:28:03.920
a lot like we tended to draft
the last few years pretty heavily in the

382
00:28:03.960 --> 00:28:08.400
twenty two to twenty six year old
range or twenty two to twenty seven.

383
00:28:08.799 --> 00:28:14.519
And I think we were probably a
little more dogmatic about it than the two

384
00:28:14.559 --> 00:28:18.960
of you, who I think tend
to jump around for value. If that's

385
00:28:18.279 --> 00:28:22.240
and I'll let you guys respond to
that, and I yeah, and I

386
00:28:22.279 --> 00:28:29.319
think this year, like we just
saw everybody filling that space, and I

387
00:28:29.400 --> 00:28:32.680
don't know that we were like incredibly
successful at it, but we ended up

388
00:28:33.240 --> 00:28:38.319
going almost a little younger than usual, which is maybe not the right direction

389
00:28:40.680 --> 00:28:45.440
all told. And we can talk
about how successful that was later. But

390
00:28:45.559 --> 00:28:48.839
you know, I think we tried
to draft maybe even into the nineteen to

391
00:28:48.839 --> 00:28:55.000
twenty two range a little more than
we usually do, which is, you

392
00:28:55.039 --> 00:28:57.279
know, we are not big prospect
hounds in this league, just because I

393
00:28:57.279 --> 00:29:02.079
think there are people who take that
space better than us. But um,

394
00:29:03.240 --> 00:29:07.240
with this kind of um, I
want to say, like strong drafting,

395
00:29:07.240 --> 00:29:12.880
it just became almost too hard to
find equality twenty five year old by mid

396
00:29:14.000 --> 00:29:17.400
round. And you know, for
what we're trying to do, which is

397
00:29:17.400 --> 00:29:23.200
probably generally it's to compete in M
plus one year, we just found there

398
00:29:23.279 --> 00:29:34.359
was more value like outside of that
kind of type window. Sorry, yep,

399
00:29:34.559 --> 00:29:40.039
everyone agrees, Um, well let's
just move on more generically. UM,

400
00:29:40.119 --> 00:29:42.200
were there any picks that sort out
to you all that? Um you,

401
00:29:42.200 --> 00:29:45.440
like Dorik I said, you didn't, like, feel free to tout

402
00:29:45.480 --> 00:29:48.680
your own picks as well, if
there's something you want to call out.

403
00:29:52.079 --> 00:29:55.880
I think there ended up being value
with the age with some of the older

404
00:29:55.920 --> 00:29:59.519
guys. I thought, seeing Donaldson
in the sixth round, Cane in the

405
00:29:59.559 --> 00:30:03.240
eighth round, I mean, Lorenzo
Kane's really good and with the format,

406
00:30:03.279 --> 00:30:07.440
if you get a guy who's really
good for a couple of years, uh,

407
00:30:07.480 --> 00:30:11.039
you know, those are championships added. UM. On the younger side,

408
00:30:11.039 --> 00:30:15.319
I really liked the pick up Washington's
Luis Garcia, whose name is not

409
00:30:15.440 --> 00:30:22.440
memorable. And then uh, uh
Nate was on me. Uh Nate wanted

410
00:30:22.480 --> 00:30:27.400
to draft Cabrian Hayes and we didn't
quite reach a consensus. Uh, and

411
00:30:27.680 --> 00:30:33.319
somebody drafted him then before we uh
we would have. But you know,

412
00:30:33.359 --> 00:30:37.279
now, Cobryan Hayes is just killing
spring training. And I know there's a

413
00:30:37.319 --> 00:30:41.160
lot of people saying spring training is
meeting less. They are wrong. Um.

414
00:30:41.720 --> 00:30:48.200
And the even in this very very
very small sample size for Cabrian Hayes,

415
00:30:48.480 --> 00:30:52.319
it is some useful information. So
those are some of the picks I

416
00:30:52.319 --> 00:30:57.200
I saw and uh and I think
really provided uh you know, obvious good

417
00:30:57.279 --> 00:31:03.119
value. There were a lot of
reasonable value picks to be had because of

418
00:31:03.160 --> 00:31:08.279
the focus on youth. Yeah,
I had I had something of the similar,

419
00:31:08.319 --> 00:31:12.839
and I was hinting at that I
have I think your own Uh did

420
00:31:12.839 --> 00:31:15.359
you take up? Were you the
ones who took Joey Vado in around six?

421
00:31:15.720 --> 00:31:18.920
Um? Sorry I should have that
up, but I had Joey Vado

422
00:31:19.039 --> 00:31:23.400
listed around six. I thought even
Carlos Santana and Josea Breyu in round eleven.

423
00:31:23.440 --> 00:31:27.240
I think those are closer to what
you guys tend to call tedious value

424
00:31:27.240 --> 00:31:32.839
picks. But you know, I
think there was just some value in older

425
00:31:32.880 --> 00:31:37.839
players, and it kind of um
made us with you know, when once

426
00:31:37.920 --> 00:31:45.440
we had the once we kind of
had made enough nineteen to twenty one year

427
00:31:45.480 --> 00:31:49.160
old picks, it was too hard
for us to pivot to like, um,

428
00:31:51.119 --> 00:31:52.119
you know, going much older in
the draft, because I don't think

429
00:31:52.119 --> 00:31:56.400
we would have had the base with
which to support that. But you saw,

430
00:31:56.480 --> 00:32:04.599
almost like halfway through the draft that
the talent was really dropping for teams

431
00:32:04.640 --> 00:32:07.920
that were trying to compete in year
one. So, if I may,

432
00:32:07.960 --> 00:32:12.319
I think, if I put myself
in the shoes of say, somebody who

433
00:32:12.680 --> 00:32:15.200
is interested in the mock draft,
but maybe it is I don't know,

434
00:32:15.319 --> 00:32:22.519
somewhat ignorant, say, how would
you reconcile the difference between saying prospects aren't

435
00:32:22.519 --> 00:32:28.279
going too early, but also saying
that there was value in the veterans later

436
00:32:28.319 --> 00:32:31.960
on. There was value in some
of the veterans later on, some of

437
00:32:31.960 --> 00:32:36.799
the veterans. I think we're not
great picks, but you and you know,

438
00:32:36.839 --> 00:32:37.880
I talked about some of the values
that I thought were there for some

439
00:32:37.920 --> 00:32:40.960
of the prospects later and some of
the values that were clearly there. I

440
00:32:40.960 --> 00:32:46.519
mean, Donaldson and Kane shouldn't have
dropped that far, but I don't think

441
00:32:46.559 --> 00:32:50.880
Louis Scarcia should have dropped that far
either, And Nate, you were right,

442
00:32:51.640 --> 00:32:54.599
Kabrian Hayes probably shouldn't have dropped that
far. Yeah, it's funny too

443
00:32:54.640 --> 00:32:58.960
because most of my list is mostly
young players. Still, even with the

444
00:32:59.039 --> 00:33:02.799
enhanced focus on younger players, I
think everyone on my list is under thirty

445
00:33:04.160 --> 00:33:07.359
um in terms of pick that I
like. You know, I like Donaldson

446
00:33:07.400 --> 00:33:09.359
too. I think that's a good
pick. Is it one of the ten

447
00:33:09.480 --> 00:33:12.599
or twenty those picks in the draft? In my opinion, No, it's

448
00:33:12.640 --> 00:33:15.759
not um, but it's a good
one. I think in round six there's

449
00:33:15.759 --> 00:33:20.400
a there's some value there. Well, where are some of the best picks.

450
00:33:22.039 --> 00:33:25.640
Uh So Danny Jansen went in the
fourth round. Um, that's gonna

451
00:33:25.640 --> 00:33:30.599
be surprising to a lot of people, but I think it's absolutely appropriate.

452
00:33:30.920 --> 00:33:35.799
Um he's the catcher two on my
board. Um in all the baseball,

453
00:33:35.799 --> 00:33:38.319
which is kind of crazy, but
um, there's a lot to like there.

454
00:33:38.319 --> 00:33:42.119
He's gonna get on base, He's
gonna have herm some power. He's

455
00:33:42.200 --> 00:33:45.480
young, catcher's terrible. Um,
go get yourself and Danny Janson if you

456
00:33:45.480 --> 00:33:52.920
can. Um. Ramo Loriano round
eight. Um, you know, he

457
00:33:52.039 --> 00:33:58.599
had pretty bad seventeen and was maybe
the Astro's only mistake of the last few

458
00:33:58.680 --> 00:34:01.920
years when they let him go after
that. But he rebounded pretty big last

459
00:34:02.000 --> 00:34:07.599
year, had the good forty some
odd game debut. You know, guy

460
00:34:07.639 --> 00:34:10.559
that can do it all. You
know, strikeouts may limit him a little

461
00:34:10.599 --> 00:34:15.960
bit, but looks power, speed, defense, kind of get it all

462
00:34:15.000 --> 00:34:19.880
there. His arm is also kind
of must watch TV. Doesn't really help

463
00:34:19.880 --> 00:34:22.039
you a ton of score sheet,
but a super fun player to watch and

464
00:34:22.159 --> 00:34:29.000
root for a couple others. I
hate to say our own picks, but

465
00:34:29.119 --> 00:34:32.400
I can lump up together, so
I'm going to do it. Padre's pictures.

466
00:34:34.639 --> 00:34:38.800
So Chris Paddock went in round eight. Huge, huge, huge fan

467
00:34:38.840 --> 00:34:44.159
of him. He is looked really
good in spring training, not surely in

468
00:34:44.199 --> 00:34:46.440
the results, just in his stuff
and how he's approaching batters and some of

469
00:34:46.440 --> 00:34:52.360
the silly swings he's getting looks really
good. You know. An anecdote I

470
00:34:52.480 --> 00:34:58.760
offered in a pretty competitive league.
I offered Kyle Schwarber for Chris Paddock straight

471
00:34:58.840 --> 00:35:02.599
up within the last week. Pattick
went round eighth where we went around four

472
00:35:02.639 --> 00:35:07.239
of the mock and I was easily
rejected. So I think that's mostly about

473
00:35:07.320 --> 00:35:12.320
Chris Paddock. He's really good,
and I think in round eighth that's pretty

474
00:35:12.360 --> 00:35:20.519
incredible. Um, who's the bus
name? Yep, yep. That might

475
00:35:20.559 --> 00:35:24.159
have been a trade that happened.
And then the other Padre pitcher is Matt

476
00:35:24.159 --> 00:35:30.280
Strom. He's probably my favorite pitcher
picking this year. Ye we took him

477
00:35:30.280 --> 00:35:36.159
around twelve. Everything is pointing in
the right direction. Uh. You know,

478
00:35:36.199 --> 00:35:38.719
he pitched last year coming off knee
surgery. By his own admission,

479
00:35:38.719 --> 00:35:43.800
he wasn't healthy until August. He
still had a really good year. He

480
00:35:43.880 --> 00:35:45.880
was kind of doing the opener thing
late in the year and he was still

481
00:35:45.920 --> 00:35:49.760
pitching really good. He had a
twelve K to nine in the second half.

482
00:35:50.800 --> 00:35:54.039
He has four pitches that graded above
average last year by results. Yes,

483
00:35:54.039 --> 00:35:58.079
he did that as a reliever,
but still that's an incredible place to

484
00:35:58.119 --> 00:36:01.679
start and bodes well for going to
the rotation. He added a bunch of

485
00:36:01.679 --> 00:36:07.079
weight and muscle this winter to help
him get more durable for for being a

486
00:36:07.119 --> 00:36:12.639
starting pitchers. So he's he's probably
my favorite UM pitcher pick this year.

487
00:36:13.800 --> 00:36:17.199
Yeah. I had both of them
on my sheet about year best players.

488
00:36:17.199 --> 00:36:23.679
I couldn't agree more. Matt Tron's
looked just like outstanding this spring. Padres

489
00:36:23.920 --> 00:36:28.519
remain a fun watch. Yeah,
for sure. That's going to be a

490
00:36:28.519 --> 00:36:30.960
super fun team pitching, hitting.
They have a lot of young, exciting

491
00:36:30.960 --> 00:36:37.119
guys. It'll be interesting to see
how they they come together. A few

492
00:36:37.119 --> 00:36:43.239
more U Chad Pinder Round fifteen doesn't
have a starting gig. He's still gonna

493
00:36:43.239 --> 00:36:45.039
get at least four hundred plate appearances. He's gonna play all over the place.

494
00:36:45.679 --> 00:36:49.920
I had a pretty good year last
year. Batted ball data was really

495
00:36:49.920 --> 00:36:53.559
good. Um, I think you
know the drafts I've looked at. He's

496
00:36:53.679 --> 00:36:58.719
getting out of the fifteen, sixteenth
round. I think that's an incredible pick

497
00:36:58.800 --> 00:37:05.840
there. And so when I'd recommend
Pete Alonzo speaking of good spring training performances,

498
00:37:05.880 --> 00:37:07.840
particularly in bls L, first base
is kind of loaded right now,

499
00:37:08.440 --> 00:37:12.719
particularly for leagues that have been going
for a while, so um, it's

500
00:37:12.719 --> 00:37:16.679
a little harder to get excited there, but certainly in BL's. Um,

501
00:37:17.480 --> 00:37:22.719
you know, this is the classic, you know, non sexy, righty,

502
00:37:22.800 --> 00:37:27.119
righty first baseman that just keeps hitting
and all of a sudden he's in

503
00:37:27.159 --> 00:37:30.199
the big leagues and he's, you
know, one of the twenty or thirty

504
00:37:30.199 --> 00:37:31.440
best hitters in baseball, and you're
like, oh, how'd that happen?

505
00:37:31.960 --> 00:37:35.920
He never he never got a lot
of hype, so he could be the

506
00:37:35.960 --> 00:37:38.519
new Goldschmidt or Hoskins or you know, a whole bunch of guys that have

507
00:37:38.639 --> 00:37:42.360
done that. So there's still some
risk. You know, he's not the

508
00:37:42.360 --> 00:37:45.159
most athletic guy, to put it
kindly, but um, that bat looks

509
00:37:45.199 --> 00:37:51.079
really good. And in round nine
that was that was pretty good. And

510
00:37:51.119 --> 00:37:57.480
then one more out I second to
Hayes Hayes recommendation, and lastly round thirteen

511
00:37:58.239 --> 00:38:02.639
v. Dal Brujon. At some
point we're gonna stop underrating the little guys.

512
00:38:05.039 --> 00:38:08.760
He is not big. He could
hit the gym that would help add

513
00:38:08.800 --> 00:38:15.760
some physicality, but he's also not
very tall. But everything else. If

514
00:38:15.800 --> 00:38:16.880
you like didn't know his height and
weight and you looked at him as some

515
00:38:16.960 --> 00:38:22.280
prospects, you would think he's a
top ten prospect in baseball. You know,

516
00:38:22.360 --> 00:38:27.800
has the hit tool, played,
approach, discipline, defense, speeds,

517
00:38:27.800 --> 00:38:30.400
makeups off the chart, scorting to
everyone that talks to him. You

518
00:38:30.440 --> 00:38:34.960
know, the power is not quite
there, but he's young and still growing

519
00:38:35.000 --> 00:38:38.039
and all that. He did have
a kind of a mini late season breakout

520
00:38:38.079 --> 00:38:42.840
in high a small fample, so
maybe nothing, but he started to add

521
00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:47.400
more power there. So another hitter
that I think could be very good and

522
00:38:47.519 --> 00:38:54.800
around thirteen, I think the tables
are in your favor. Cool um Need

523
00:38:54.960 --> 00:39:00.159
You had just mentioned about the Gloody
first baseman. Did the mock jet reveal

524
00:39:00.239 --> 00:39:04.880
anything to you all about positional scarcity? I know, at least in my

525
00:39:04.920 --> 00:39:07.000
head, there was a running thread
about how deep third base was this year.

526
00:39:10.320 --> 00:39:13.320
Yeah, I mean the one that
I got to me was just Catcher

527
00:39:13.360 --> 00:39:15.159
is awful. I mean, if
you're not going to get one of the

528
00:39:15.199 --> 00:39:20.519
first two or maybe a couple of
the mid tier guys like the Tryst or

529
00:39:20.559 --> 00:39:23.920
Grandall or something like that. After
that, I mean, I might I'd

530
00:39:24.000 --> 00:39:29.000
rather just wait till like round twenty
and draft a couple of guys and have

531
00:39:29.079 --> 00:39:34.639
a Franken starting catcher platoon. You're
not going to be missing out on any

532
00:39:34.800 --> 00:39:37.320
productivity by doing that. You know. There's not only there's not even a

533
00:39:37.320 --> 00:39:39.800
lot of guys with like upside where
you'd be like, hey, maybe this

534
00:39:39.840 --> 00:39:43.840
guy's gonna be something. It's just
a lot of people that you know,

535
00:39:44.000 --> 00:39:45.880
are not going to be very good
or just kind of be mediocres. So

536
00:39:47.679 --> 00:39:52.480
catcher looks worse than I can remember
it. Yeah, And one of the

537
00:39:52.519 --> 00:39:55.840
things we see on the prospect it's
Danny Jansen still qualifies as a prospect,

538
00:39:57.119 --> 00:40:00.199
and he's like and so not even
in some top one hundreds or he's eighty

539
00:40:00.280 --> 00:40:04.440
seventh on place and you look at
that. I mean, the guy right

540
00:40:04.480 --> 00:40:08.199
now is Nate said, he's he's
one of the top catchers in the league,

541
00:40:08.519 --> 00:40:12.440
I mean right now. So when
I see that on the on the

542
00:40:12.480 --> 00:40:15.719
prospect, was I have some concerns
because, as Nate said, Danny Jansen

543
00:40:15.800 --> 00:40:21.519
is actually good and catching, not
just for score sheet but in the major

544
00:40:21.559 --> 00:40:24.960
leagues is weak. Obviously the major
leagues. I think part of that is

545
00:40:25.000 --> 00:40:29.920
that there's more of a more of
a focus on some of the defensive things

546
00:40:29.920 --> 00:40:32.000
that are out there, and so
we end up seeing Jeff math Is still

547
00:40:32.000 --> 00:40:37.760
having a job. Yeah, I
will just echo that. I think I

548
00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:42.679
saw Danny Jansen in the one hundred
to one range in what I would call

549
00:40:42.760 --> 00:40:49.519
a prominent minor league evaluators rankings.
UM, and I thought that was crazy.

550
00:40:50.000 --> 00:40:52.400
Um. And you know we saw
only I was just counting. I

551
00:40:52.400 --> 00:40:58.320
think only twenty catchers went in this
draft. It's a twenty fourteen draft.

552
00:40:58.760 --> 00:41:04.360
About half of them are rookies or
people without position or you know, or

553
00:41:04.480 --> 00:41:07.840
playing time one of that. It's
willing test Todio. So can can I

554
00:41:07.920 --> 00:41:10.199
can? I? Can I add
an asterisk to the statement I made?

555
00:41:10.519 --> 00:41:15.480
There is the Astudillo gambit, which
is an exception I'm willing to allow.

556
00:41:15.079 --> 00:41:19.960
Um, he does not go very
high, but is actually interesting. UM.

557
00:41:20.039 --> 00:41:22.400
I don't know how long that's gonna
last, or if he's gonna ever

558
00:41:22.400 --> 00:41:28.039
get playing time, but he's good. And I think the thing I said

559
00:41:28.039 --> 00:41:31.159
in the mock was if you never
strike out and batting average on balls and

560
00:41:31.280 --> 00:41:36.000
play as a thing. That means
you hit three hundred, right, um,

561
00:41:36.320 --> 00:41:37.599
and and he does that. I
mean it's a trick. It was

562
00:41:37.599 --> 00:41:42.280
like two percent last year, three
percent, So um, it doesn't take

563
00:41:42.400 --> 00:41:44.440
much if you do that, and
you have even a little bit of power

564
00:41:45.239 --> 00:41:49.800
to become a pretty valuable catcher in
this day and age. So I don't

565
00:41:49.800 --> 00:41:52.199
know, he might make the team
as like a utility guy slash third catcher.

566
00:41:52.920 --> 00:41:55.320
He might come up later in the
year. It's gonna still to be

567
00:41:55.360 --> 00:42:00.119
determined as far as I know.
But um, he's interesting, and I

568
00:42:00.159 --> 00:42:02.039
think he's someone you'd like to have
and just kind of treat him as a

569
00:42:02.079 --> 00:42:07.639
prospect and see when he comes home. Yeah, you know. And it's

570
00:42:07.679 --> 00:42:13.599
interesting because one of the actual few
veteran catchers he went was Mitch Garver ahead

571
00:42:13.639 --> 00:42:16.000
of him, so there and neither
of them are actually starting catcher who did

572
00:42:16.039 --> 00:42:23.039
not go. But it's just really
fascinating. That's why we ended up taking

573
00:42:23.320 --> 00:42:27.360
in the ninth round, we took
Adlee Rushman. One of the things you

574
00:42:27.360 --> 00:42:31.440
should know about this league is that
you can take anyone, including you or

575
00:42:31.440 --> 00:42:37.119
me, but please don't I'm not
not I do not return sixteenth round value.

576
00:42:37.239 --> 00:42:44.159
But I do think Adlee Rushman,
who is by and large the consensus

577
00:42:44.199 --> 00:42:49.599
number one, and I think has
just again not that like playing like Fedom

578
00:42:49.719 --> 00:42:54.639
or whatever matters, but he has
been looking dynamite in the early college season.

579
00:42:58.800 --> 00:43:04.320
Gangrass just to jump Fan Grafts just
upgraded him to a sixty future Value

580
00:43:04.320 --> 00:43:07.119
Prospects, which puts you solidly in
the top twenty prospects of the game.

581
00:43:07.400 --> 00:43:13.920
So yeah, it's not too early
to jump on that bandwagon. He's He's

582
00:43:13.960 --> 00:43:16.559
not a you know, Bryce Harper
level one dot one when it comes to

583
00:43:16.599 --> 00:43:21.039
the draft, but he is a
solid Yes, this is the best player

584
00:43:21.039 --> 00:43:23.800
in the draft coming. He's a
lot different than everyone else in the draft.

585
00:43:24.079 --> 00:43:28.559
Yeah, and I think there was
some backtock at the time. I

586
00:43:28.599 --> 00:43:32.199
think he was severely underdrafted because I
think a lot of people are working for

587
00:43:32.239 --> 00:43:38.119
a limited information in the college here, but there are also because there are

588
00:43:38.119 --> 00:43:45.800
no good cashers. Yeah. Um, so, John, I wanted to

589
00:43:45.800 --> 00:43:49.400
go back. You had brought up
Malcolm Nuniez before. I know he had

590
00:43:49.400 --> 00:43:54.039
a point there, But first,
Ben, who is Malcolm juniaz Um to

591
00:43:54.119 --> 00:43:59.440
see that author that wrote that really
popular book, Yes, exactly, John,

592
00:43:59.480 --> 00:44:02.440
Why should know who Malcolm Junia is. So Malcolm Junia is. It

593
00:44:02.519 --> 00:44:07.480
was our sixteenth round pick. He
was a slight statement pick. I thought

594
00:44:07.519 --> 00:44:10.480
he was fifteenth round whatever, the
last round is, sixteenth round the uh.

595
00:44:13.079 --> 00:44:15.760
I thought he's value there. Um. But obviously in a real league

596
00:44:15.800 --> 00:44:21.880
somebody might let him slip. Um. But basically what he did in rookie

597
00:44:21.920 --> 00:44:27.559
league at the age of seventeen was
to crush the ball entirely. He's sort

598
00:44:27.599 --> 00:44:32.239
of a third baseman. Um.
And here's the thing, like nobody had

599
00:44:32.320 --> 00:44:36.679
heard of him, he'd had He's
signed for I think four hundred grand,

600
00:44:36.679 --> 00:44:42.159
which is not nothing, um.
But when you have this kind of performance,

601
00:44:42.199 --> 00:44:45.559
it's kind of massive, epic performance. It matters. Um. It's

602
00:44:45.679 --> 00:44:51.119
it's an overwhelming performance, even in
rookie ball. It's just you just don't

603
00:44:51.159 --> 00:44:54.239
see people do this. Um.
He had no ps of something like eleven

604
00:44:54.320 --> 00:45:00.880
hundreds something ridiculous. And yeah,
it's a it's the in a consummer league

605
00:45:00.920 --> 00:45:04.480
which they keep adding teams and they
have a thousand players in might not be

606
00:45:04.519 --> 00:45:07.880
a thousand, but it's a lot
of players, and so the quality is

607
00:45:07.840 --> 00:45:10.119
slow. But you also have a
seventeen year old who has just with real

608
00:45:10.239 --> 00:45:15.800
power, and you shouldn't ignore that. And I think one of the things

609
00:45:15.800 --> 00:45:22.960
that we see with some frequency is
performance gets kind of ignored sometimes in on

610
00:45:22.960 --> 00:45:24.599
some of these lists. Even now, you used to be much worse.

611
00:45:25.679 --> 00:45:30.000
I think you want Malcolm Nunez.
I think if you're in a league,

612
00:45:30.079 --> 00:45:32.960
especially with unlimited rookies, nobody else
is going to draft him. You can

613
00:45:32.960 --> 00:45:36.800
probably draft him in the middle twenties. You're the only one listening to this

614
00:45:36.840 --> 00:45:40.800
podcast, whoever you are, who
does listen to this, and that's fair,

615
00:45:43.559 --> 00:45:46.599
and you should go ahead and get
get him. The performance is too

616
00:45:46.679 --> 00:45:51.599
much of an outlier to ignore.
And when you have things like that,

617
00:45:52.320 --> 00:45:58.199
both Nate and I in season look
at for supplemental picks, look at outlier

618
00:45:58.199 --> 00:46:01.800
performances by minor league players, and
you end up picking up some good players

619
00:46:01.800 --> 00:46:05.679
by doing that. Yeah, some
of them are flukes, but there are

620
00:46:05.679 --> 00:46:07.440
some things you can do, like
you know, home runs, if you

621
00:46:07.440 --> 00:46:10.480
have a bunch of home runs.
Yeah, maybe a little flukey, but

622
00:46:10.800 --> 00:46:14.079
it's hard to hit a bunch of
home runs if you don't have the ability

623
00:46:14.079 --> 00:46:20.199
to hit home runs. So you
really want to look at these kinds of

624
00:46:20.280 --> 00:46:25.199
super outlier performances, even when they're
in crappy leagues, even when they're even

625
00:46:25.239 --> 00:46:29.119
if it's the Dominican Summer League and
the guy is very young, and you're

626
00:46:29.159 --> 00:46:34.360
gonna have a holding cause. So
I think the lesson isn't just Malcolm Junia

627
00:46:34.440 --> 00:46:37.599
is, but any of these things
where you have some kind of you can't

628
00:46:37.639 --> 00:46:45.199
ignore outlier performances. Yeah, and
just just a correction there. His OPS

629
00:46:45.280 --> 00:46:50.079
was actually twelve seventy. It was
even better than eleven hundred and so,

630
00:46:50.719 --> 00:46:53.599
you know, silly video game numbers, right, But I agree with John.

631
00:46:53.639 --> 00:46:59.320
You know, he wasn't on my
radar for around sixteen. He was

632
00:46:59.360 --> 00:47:01.280
a guy I had heard of and
who put up good numbers, but you

633
00:47:01.320 --> 00:47:05.360
know, it wasn't wasn't anywhere near
my list at that point. But John

634
00:47:05.360 --> 00:47:08.119
made the case, and UM ultimately
is yeah, this this makes sense.

635
00:47:08.480 --> 00:47:13.960
Um, it's an outlier performance and
we should see how that goes. Yeah.

636
00:47:13.960 --> 00:47:17.039
I feel actually pretty similarly. I
think it less more scouting, less

637
00:47:17.079 --> 00:47:22.639
performance. But about your fifteenth round
pick Nolan Jones, Um like getting the

638
00:47:22.760 --> 00:47:28.079
players who just dominate league, like
on some level, you know, it's

639
00:47:28.159 --> 00:47:30.960
right, it's something to work from, like right, you're you know,

640
00:47:31.159 --> 00:47:37.519
I think there's this like that,
don't scout the stat line line That just

641
00:47:37.599 --> 00:47:42.559
infuriates me because it's used wrong all
the time by everyone. Um, but

642
00:47:43.159 --> 00:47:45.800
you know, if you know how
to, if you know how to just

643
00:47:45.039 --> 00:47:49.800
outlines and what matters, you know, it's information, and to throw out

644
00:47:49.840 --> 00:47:57.039
information just to feel superior is seems
silly to me. I think that's an

645
00:47:57.039 --> 00:48:01.079
excellent point. I think that goes
for yea, that goes for spring training

646
00:48:01.079 --> 00:48:05.599
stats, which have demonstrable use.
If we throw that out and say,

647
00:48:05.599 --> 00:48:07.280
oh, they don't matter, it
does matter. All these things matter.

648
00:48:07.320 --> 00:48:10.639
The question is how much do they
matter? Quantifying how much they matter and

649
00:48:10.679 --> 00:48:16.119
then using that to make good decisions. Yeah, or drafting Lewis Brinson in

650
00:48:16.119 --> 00:48:24.880
the first round because he get five
home runs? Can we can we talk

651
00:48:24.920 --> 00:48:28.440
about Nolan Jones for a second,
because he's super interesting. He's a weird

652
00:48:28.519 --> 00:48:31.679
prospect um if you haven't looked at
him, you know he's made a few

653
00:48:31.719 --> 00:48:37.400
top one hundreds towards the back.
But you know, you don't find many

654
00:48:37.440 --> 00:48:42.280
prospects that you know, add an
appropriate level in you know, single A

655
00:48:42.559 --> 00:48:46.199
or high A. You know,
walk sixteen percent of the time, strike

656
00:48:46.199 --> 00:48:50.039
out twenty five percent of the time
and have a whole bunch of power that

657
00:48:50.400 --> 00:48:54.079
rarely happens, particularly the walks.
Um. So you know, there's I

658
00:48:54.119 --> 00:48:58.920
think some concerns that you know,
maybe the batspeet isn't there and uh,

659
00:48:59.119 --> 00:49:01.119
you know he's gonna strike out a
whole bunch and he's being too passive and

660
00:49:01.880 --> 00:49:07.079
uh, he's got Jeremy Hermida disease
back in the day where it's like you

661
00:49:07.079 --> 00:49:10.000
need to swing the bat sometimes,
So he may be that a little bit,

662
00:49:10.199 --> 00:49:15.960
um, but you know, the
raw indicators there are super good and

663
00:49:15.960 --> 00:49:19.880
you know, at someone that's not
going to cost you very much, is

664
00:49:20.199 --> 00:49:24.400
it's pretty interesting also, um,
because it's not going to come up again

665
00:49:24.400 --> 00:49:28.840
in the world. I'm a Jeremy
hermid The truth there and everyone needs to

666
00:49:28.880 --> 00:49:32.119
know this. He had a nineps
one year where he just like dominated in

667
00:49:32.119 --> 00:49:36.679
the Major league and everyone forgets this
and he's like just a massive bust.

668
00:49:37.079 --> 00:49:40.719
No, he was like legitimately like
haid Off for a year and just um,

669
00:49:42.239 --> 00:49:44.800
Jared, I think you can agree
with me on this because I think

670
00:49:44.800 --> 00:49:47.559
you were at this game. We
saw him once in spring training like the

671
00:49:47.679 --> 00:49:51.639
single Like, I don't mean to
turn this into a Bills in his pot,

672
00:49:51.679 --> 00:49:54.559
but like the single lowest motor I
have ever seen on the baseball time.

673
00:49:54.639 --> 00:49:58.639
And maybe he was sick that day. I don't know. That was

674
00:49:58.760 --> 00:50:01.599
like in retrospect, I was like, oh, that's a warning sign.

675
00:50:01.800 --> 00:50:07.599
Now I understand. But he's not
a prospectus, he's a major league bust.

676
00:50:07.920 --> 00:50:09.920
They're different. How long is that
eating away at you? Ian?

677
00:50:10.039 --> 00:50:15.320
Oh? All the time? Just
you know, it doesn't come up in

678
00:50:15.360 --> 00:50:27.159
regular conversations of Um, well,
I want to be respectful of everyone's time

679
00:50:27.199 --> 00:50:30.119
as of us on the East Coast. Do have to go to sleep because

680
00:50:30.159 --> 00:50:32.760
we're on these coasts? Um?
Do you have any final thoughts about the

681
00:50:32.800 --> 00:50:37.599
mock that um you wanted to make
sure to get out there. John will

682
00:50:37.639 --> 00:50:42.559
start with you. I think the
thing that we haven't talked about a lot

683
00:50:42.719 --> 00:50:46.239
is it's really fun. I have
a great time doing it. I had

684
00:50:46.239 --> 00:50:49.239
a great time to doing it alone, but I also had a really great

685
00:50:49.280 --> 00:50:51.360
time doing it with Date. You
know, we had the back and forth.

686
00:50:51.559 --> 00:50:55.320
It's something in the off season you
get to you also have really high

687
00:50:55.400 --> 00:51:00.840
quality commentary from a variety of people. I do think we're at a just

688
00:51:01.119 --> 00:51:07.079
an incredible group of drafts at this
point. I mean really good drafters,

689
00:51:07.039 --> 00:51:13.599
really sharp people, people with takes, and we've really, I've just had

690
00:51:14.280 --> 00:51:16.760
a terrific time. It's a fun
thing to do. If you're if you're

691
00:51:16.840 --> 00:51:21.599
interested in doing it next year,
you should. And if you're if you

692
00:51:21.679 --> 00:51:25.039
like scoresheet enough to be here a
listener to a podcast on it, then

693
00:51:25.119 --> 00:51:28.880
heck, uh, this is a
really fun thing to do. I recommend

694
00:51:28.920 --> 00:51:34.039
everyone do it. Yeah, And
I think the other benefit is that,

695
00:51:34.199 --> 00:51:36.559
you know, though it's a mock
draft and we don't play it out,

696
00:51:36.639 --> 00:51:40.039
the truth eventually emerges, right,
so uh, you know there's some good

697
00:51:40.119 --> 00:51:44.400
natured ripping that happens. You know, if someone doesn't like a pick or

698
00:51:44.440 --> 00:51:46.679
something like that, that that we'll
get said, we're not all just polite

699
00:51:46.760 --> 00:51:52.679
and everything's roses and sunshine, and
you know, we've had people come back

700
00:51:52.719 --> 00:51:54.639
and you know a couple of years
later you do know, hey, this

701
00:51:54.679 --> 00:51:58.559
pick up hand and it worked out
and that's the fun part, right,

702
00:51:58.639 --> 00:52:00.320
So you know, hey, if
you go against the grain and something works

703
00:52:00.320 --> 00:52:04.159
out, and you should come back
and crow about it a little bit.

704
00:52:04.280 --> 00:52:09.199
So I find it super fun.
It's someone that's obnoxiously competitive, i'd probably

705
00:52:09.199 --> 00:52:12.800
get a little bit too into it, But um, I really enjoy it,

706
00:52:12.840 --> 00:52:17.239
and I think we got a great
group of owners. Yeah, I

707
00:52:17.280 --> 00:52:22.159
will echo what they say. Um, and you know again, I actually

708
00:52:22.159 --> 00:52:23.360
think that is a really good point. Like, um, you know,

709
00:52:23.440 --> 00:52:28.840
this year, I think, um, I was noticing a lot of beloved,

710
00:52:29.800 --> 00:52:32.920
beloved former baseball Perspectus writer Joe Shehan
and Jay Young Claus have a team

711
00:52:32.920 --> 00:52:36.880
together. I was noticing a lot
of their picks. Uh, kinde got

712
00:52:36.920 --> 00:52:42.480
gagged up on a little bit.
Um, But um, you know,

713
00:52:42.559 --> 00:52:45.440
I do think there's an aspect where
they ended up taking a lot of brewers

714
00:52:45.440 --> 00:52:49.039
and padres, and the brewers and
padres looked pretty terrific and the early going,

715
00:52:49.599 --> 00:52:52.400
Um, you know, I think
there's a place where they could come

716
00:52:52.440 --> 00:52:54.320
back in three years and say,
well, we were actually just right about

717
00:52:54.320 --> 00:53:00.519
everybody. So take that. Um. But yeah, you know, I

718
00:53:00.559 --> 00:53:07.800
think you also, I would say
it's extremely fun to draft. But if

719
00:53:07.840 --> 00:53:10.480
you you know, not everyone can
do that. If you just want to

720
00:53:10.480 --> 00:53:15.440
be in there on the conversation,
just join the Yahoo group again. Groups

721
00:53:15.480 --> 00:53:19.400
that Yahoo dot com and Google,
you know, Google, Yeah, that's

722
00:53:19.440 --> 00:53:22.039
exactly what you should do with it. Look for a mock draft in the

723
00:53:22.239 --> 00:53:25.599
search bar and you can just sign
up for the league and then just start

724
00:53:25.599 --> 00:53:30.599
receiving the emails. And you know, even if you can't participate, we

725
00:53:30.639 --> 00:53:36.360
get comments from people who aren't participating
that are you know, rigorous and well

726
00:53:36.400 --> 00:53:42.519
thought out and probably probably as signed
that they should have our position. But

727
00:53:43.239 --> 00:53:45.920
you know, I think the participants, the people who participate without drafting,

728
00:53:45.960 --> 00:53:52.239
are just as valuable as those who
are in the league itself. Yeah.

729
00:53:52.280 --> 00:53:53.440
I was gonna mention that too,
Ian, So I'm glad you said something.

730
00:53:53.639 --> 00:53:59.199
I think participating comes in many forms, and certainly the folks that are

731
00:53:59.800 --> 00:54:05.840
watching and thinking critically or even just
shouting random insult set terrible picks definitely add

732
00:54:05.880 --> 00:54:10.360
to the entertainment value. I have
to tell myself that, because otherwise there's

733
00:54:10.360 --> 00:54:22.079
no point for me. Nice thanks
to sure um with that. If no

734
00:54:22.159 --> 00:54:25.559
one has any further thoughts on the
mac on the mock, John, what

735
00:54:25.679 --> 00:54:30.519
was the best thing you saw this
week? Oh? Man, I did

736
00:54:30.679 --> 00:54:34.760
on the spot? I know,
Man, I am uh is how I

737
00:54:34.800 --> 00:54:40.559
feel every week, John, I
don't let's see, I want to go

738
00:54:40.639 --> 00:54:45.440
with I think. Oh, the
best thing I saw this week was the

739
00:54:45.519 --> 00:54:52.679
Jeopardy Tournament of Champions, The big
team tournament. It was great. I

740
00:54:52.719 --> 00:54:55.400
was rooting for Ken Jennings over Brad
Rutter and I've got another half hour on

741
00:54:55.440 --> 00:54:59.519
this old Jeopardy tournament. But it
was great. Of course, the saddest

742
00:54:59.519 --> 00:55:04.760
thing this week because Alex Trebeck's pancreatic
cancer. But the but it was great

743
00:55:05.079 --> 00:55:08.920
to watch the Jeopardy at its finest. They did a brilliantly run tournament and

744
00:55:08.960 --> 00:55:13.719
it was a lot of fun to
watch. Yeah, real a real validictory

745
00:55:13.719 --> 00:55:16.199
for Alex Travac too, you know
if this is if he's facing a battle,

746
00:55:16.239 --> 00:55:21.239
like just a testament to thirty years
of a great show. Yes,

747
00:55:21.599 --> 00:55:24.320
yeah, what was so good about
it, John, Not that I'm I'm

748
00:55:24.360 --> 00:55:30.679
just so they what they did is
they got all a bunch of former contestants.

749
00:55:30.679 --> 00:55:34.079
They did had it in a tournament
format. They had six teams of

750
00:55:34.199 --> 00:55:37.760
three each, and they had a
little bit of a complicated play into the

751
00:55:37.800 --> 00:55:44.719
finals, and they got very entertaining
people, uh you know, and and

752
00:55:45.119 --> 00:55:50.480
these uh, these people who are
really good at the game uh playing And

753
00:55:50.480 --> 00:55:54.480
then they switched off from single Deputy
to Double Jeopardy to Final Jeopardy, and

754
00:55:54.480 --> 00:55:59.559
they showed you some of the thoughts
and what their betting strategies were uh going

755
00:55:59.559 --> 00:56:02.480
into it and so h and also, you know a lot of these people

756
00:56:02.519 --> 00:56:07.519
are just you know, genuinely charming. Uh and so watching all this was

757
00:56:07.559 --> 00:56:14.639
a good time. I think Buzzy
Cohen, who got knocked out before the

758
00:56:14.639 --> 00:56:17.480
finals, he started off saying,
well, you know, we're gonna win

759
00:56:17.840 --> 00:56:21.320
in a kind of cocky way,
and then one of the other guys said,

760
00:56:21.320 --> 00:56:22.639
well, you know, I'm just
hoping to do well. I'm the

761
00:56:23.320 --> 00:56:27.960
uh, I'm probably the worst player
here except for Buzzy. And you know,

762
00:56:28.119 --> 00:56:30.519
just the back and forth, the
little throwdowns were a lot of fun.

763
00:56:30.800 --> 00:56:35.239
Uh. And you know, you
could see everybody was respectful of game,

764
00:56:35.280 --> 00:56:38.320
respectful of each other, willing to
throw lines out there. But uh,

765
00:56:38.440 --> 00:56:42.400
you know, it's like the best
of fantasy baseball. Um. You

766
00:56:42.440 --> 00:56:45.360
know, I I insult Nate just
because he's a bad person, but uh,

767
00:56:46.400 --> 00:56:51.639
you know for the rest of you, obviously, I I insult you

768
00:56:52.239 --> 00:56:55.280
probably for some other reasons that I'll
be able to justify later. So it

769
00:56:55.559 --> 00:56:58.360
was it was a good thing to
watch. It was a lot of fun.

770
00:57:00.079 --> 00:57:02.480
Cool. Um, well, Nate
fammed for a while. Now hopefully

771
00:57:02.480 --> 00:57:06.559
you've been able to come with something
what was it. I don't know if

772
00:57:06.559 --> 00:57:09.239
I can beat the Tribec Nod but
um, and I don't know if this

773
00:57:09.320 --> 00:57:14.320
is best, but certainly the most
memorable. Uh. I was out in

774
00:57:14.519 --> 00:57:20.679
Bozeman, Montana last week and they
got three feet of snow and like three

775
00:57:20.760 --> 00:57:22.840
days. It's just like snowed.
It never stopped for three whole days.

776
00:57:23.320 --> 00:57:28.679
And uh, if you've never been
to Bozeman in the winter, um plows

777
00:57:28.719 --> 00:57:32.760
you would think would be a thing
that exists in vast quantities, but they're

778
00:57:32.760 --> 00:57:37.159
not. And um. They also
don't like put sand or salt down on

779
00:57:37.199 --> 00:57:40.800
the roads or anything. Occasionally they'll
do some gravel, but that's pretty rare

780
00:57:40.960 --> 00:57:45.239
apparently from what I saw. And
even when they do plow the roads,

781
00:57:45.440 --> 00:57:47.440
then you don't do a very good
job and don't do it very often.

782
00:57:49.239 --> 00:57:52.920
Coming from the northeast, it was
kind of startling. So we had this

783
00:57:53.079 --> 00:57:58.400
drive to the airport at like four
in the morning on our way back after

784
00:57:58.840 --> 00:58:01.079
you know, the three plus days
snowing, and there's snow everywhere, and

785
00:58:01.119 --> 00:58:04.679
it looked like the day after Tomorrow. I mean it really did. There

786
00:58:04.719 --> 00:58:07.079
were cars abandoned all over the place
on the side of the road in the

787
00:58:07.079 --> 00:58:10.920
middle of the highway. There was
a couple cars on the road that were

788
00:58:10.960 --> 00:58:15.920
like sliding through stoplights in front of
us, and uh, it really felt

789
00:58:15.119 --> 00:58:21.320
odd. I've never seen anything quite
like that and also terrifying to even drive

790
00:58:21.400 --> 00:58:27.440
fifteen minutes on back roads was was
kind of crazy. Um So, yeah,

791
00:58:27.480 --> 00:58:32.480
Bozeman as the Day after Tomorrow,
I love The Day after Tomorrow.

792
00:58:32.679 --> 00:58:37.559
If it's on TV, I have
to watch it to its conclusion. It's

793
00:58:37.599 --> 00:58:45.000
a word they watch for sure.
Um I think we can just reserve that

794
00:58:45.320 --> 00:58:47.000
best thing for our guests. And
let's spinnery and there's anything you wanted to

795
00:58:47.199 --> 00:58:52.760
get off your chests. Oh um, well, I'll just go with one

796
00:58:52.920 --> 00:58:57.199
quick anecdote because I think it'll wrappen. And it's actually about baseball, because

797
00:58:57.199 --> 00:58:59.599
I've been watching a lot of baseball
this week. Um so, as as

798
00:58:59.639 --> 00:59:01.360
I mentioned, been watching the Poddres
a ton in the last couple of days.

799
00:59:01.519 --> 00:59:04.920
Many Machado looks good. Hey,
did you know Mani Machado was a

800
00:59:04.920 --> 00:59:09.960
good player? Tared you should have
watched it for a few years. Maybe

801
00:59:09.960 --> 00:59:13.320
if you watched it more regularly,
you would have been able to know that.

802
00:59:13.840 --> 00:59:19.400
Um he was fine. But my
favorite thing was. Um, there

803
00:59:19.480 --> 00:59:24.280
was a game where Eric Hosmer came
up to bat and uh, you know,

804
00:59:24.519 --> 00:59:28.920
just for a moment, the sound
dropped out. They were talking and

805
00:59:29.400 --> 00:59:35.039
um, you know you can hear
sounds from the stands pretty well in uh

806
00:59:35.360 --> 00:59:42.599
when watching spring training broadcasts and in
the distance you hear a fango let's see

807
00:59:42.639 --> 00:59:52.000
that launch angle. And it just
reminded me that hecklers are now smarter than

808
00:59:52.079 --> 00:59:57.800
like I've ever been, and like
I had to study now to be able

809
00:59:57.800 --> 01:00:02.840
to heckle these players. So it's
just a real huge, humbling experience.

810
01:00:02.880 --> 01:00:07.559
And that's why that's the best thing
I saw this week. That's awesome,

811
01:00:07.119 --> 01:00:10.039
that's pretty good. I don't know
how it took us this long to get

812
01:00:10.079 --> 01:00:15.039
through a mock draft podcast before making
fun of the Orioles. I'm stunned that

813
01:00:15.199 --> 01:00:16.960
we lasted this song. Oh,
I forgot to say. The best thing

814
01:00:17.000 --> 01:00:21.360
I saw during the mock draft is
that none of you knew this, but

815
01:00:21.400 --> 01:00:24.559
we had a sided bet going about
whether an Oriole would be drafted in like

816
01:00:24.599 --> 01:00:30.079
a baby pool about when the first
Oriole would be taken. Yeah, well

817
01:00:30.480 --> 01:00:32.199
we posted about it after it had
Well, that's true, that's true.

818
01:00:32.199 --> 01:00:36.599
We because you know we couldn't get
everybody in, but I did want everybody

819
01:00:36.599 --> 01:00:42.760
in on the pool. Um and
the I think what the first Orel was

820
01:00:42.800 --> 01:00:45.880
taking with pick number was a two
hundred fifty two. All I remembers that

821
01:00:45.920 --> 01:00:50.159
I won. That's all I needed
to know. How did you remember that?

822
01:00:50.199 --> 01:00:54.000
Yes? It was Ryan Mountcastle pick
two fifty two. By the way,

823
01:00:54.079 --> 01:01:04.719
Ryan Mountcastle severe overdraft should not have
been taken. Um, but um,

824
01:01:05.639 --> 01:01:09.360
yeah, yes, I think we
also drafted how many Orioles would be

825
01:01:09.400 --> 01:01:14.440
taken, and I think Ben won
that as well by taking the under.

826
01:01:14.960 --> 01:01:19.039
Um. And what I love most
about that and why was the best thing

827
01:01:19.079 --> 01:01:23.639
I saw is that Jared who was
an oriole man for your entire life,

828
01:01:25.039 --> 01:01:30.719
when like, here's the most pessimistic
thing I can come up with, and

829
01:01:30.719 --> 01:01:37.599
then Ben just took the under twice
and one. So let that be a

830
01:01:37.639 --> 01:01:43.440
lesson to y'all. Okay, okay, all right, nice, I'll be

831
01:01:43.480 --> 01:01:45.199
honest. I don't know how to
wrap this up. You can you always

832
01:01:45.239 --> 01:01:47.800
do it. Um, Nick John, thanks for coming on. We really

833
01:01:47.800 --> 01:01:51.760
appreciate it, and we hope you'll
be back at some point if you're willing

834
01:01:51.800 --> 01:01:58.000
to, because sometimes our listeners want
actual content and smart people actual smart people

835
01:01:58.000 --> 01:02:00.800
helps too. Thanks for having us. It's always fun and happy to do

836
01:02:00.800 --> 01:02:06.400
it again sometime we had a great
time cool. Thanks so on behalf of

837
01:02:06.400 --> 01:02:08.960
everyone else. Thanks for listening.
And I don't know what the lex mine

838
01:02:09.119 --> 01:02:15.679
is. I have a great Jack, have a great deal. Jarreny listens

839
01:02:15.960 --> 01:02:19.719
every time. How do you do
all right?