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With where they're at with inflation,
it's still much above the two percent number

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that they target. It's much above
are a little above, i should say,

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the rate of inflation we would have
expected for this year. And so

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I think the market has gotten off
to well. It started to kind of

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go off to the races, but
I think it's at this point probably fall

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started as we're starting to see those
games being given back, and it's hard

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to think that Jerome Powell is going
to be able to do as many interest

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rate decreases as the market seems to
be pricing in. Right now, you

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are listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival
Network, where you get valuable information you

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00:00:32,439 --> 00:00:37,679
just can't find anywhere else to thrive
in today's trying times. You need the

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00:00:37,679 --> 00:00:44,240
Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and

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00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:54,520
get your free newsletter in gift Financial
Survival Network now more than ever, and

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00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,920
welcome. You are listening to and
watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your

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host, Carrie Lutz. Hey,
so fed has pivoted all his reversed course,

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so it would appear, at least
that's what they've announced. They haven't

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done it yet, but the markets
have reacted in such a way. Rates

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are down, Mortgage rates are down
substantially and probably heading lower. They got

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somebody here that you're definitely going to
want to pay attention to, financial expert

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head thatcher Ted. It's great to
have you on the show, and Hey,

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great to be with you. Yeah, Ayan, I should mention that

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you find Ted at Einbrook financial dot
com. If you got a question for

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Ted or myself, shoot me an
email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com.

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So we had a fad that up
until the last month was staying the course.

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They weren't going to you know,
rates were going to stay high.

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The banking industry be damned. The
regional banks, we don't need them anyway,

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and they're seeing a global implosion,
much due in part to the FIDS

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so called aggressive hawkish stance towards rates. All of a sudden, one day,

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it's like Jerome Powell's Ripper Van Winkle. He wakes up and finds out

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that the world is like crumbling around
him and the global financial system is headed

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for the skids, and it says, uh, time to change course.

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How can you be to the brink
of the edge. Yeah, how can

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you be confident in a person like
that, well, it's to be candid.

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I don't know if you can be
extremely confident in a person like that.

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Carry I think, you know,
looking at the CPI numbers that just

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came out, you know, Jerome
Powell changing course. Now it's interesting to

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me. I think you know this
sea so just everybody knows out there.

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The CPI data came out this morning. We're at three tenths of a percent,

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zero point three percent for December.
You know, on the year.

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That puts set three point four percent
measured by the CPI, which you and

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I know we could have a long
conversation about whether that's a reasonable measure of

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inflation or not. And yeah,
you know, of course with that,

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where Jerome Powell goes from here is
kind of what I'm thinking about, because

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to your point, he started to
change his tune last time in the FED

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and BET and of course they meet
again here at the end of January.

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And what I am going to guess
here is that he is going to keep

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that tone of complete optionality. We
remember the word transitory that they kept throwing

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at us so often. Oh yeah, in the early part of twenty twenty

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two. And you know, we've
heard higher rates for longer than we'd like.

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We got the Fed meeting last month, and of course Jerome Powell started

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hinting at a couple interest rate decreases, but with where they're at with inflation,

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it's still much above the two percent
number that they target. It's much

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above are a little above, i
should say, the rate of inflation we

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would have expected for this year.
And so I think the market has gotten

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off to well, it started to
kind of go off to the races,

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but I think it's at this point
probably fall started as we're starting to see

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those games being given back, and
it's hard to think that Jerome Powell is

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going to be able to do as
many interest rate decreases as the market seems

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to be pricing in right now with
inflation higher than well we expect, in

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higher than they target. He said
three cuts the market immediately up to to

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six. But hey, as long
as the rates aren't going higher, I

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think that makes a bullish argument perhaps, But you know, transitory thing.

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Going back to that, you know
we have a saying here the best things

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in life are transitory, right,
so you know that was just a focus

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group driven or a narrative. Then
I think you were skeptical, skeptical of

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from the very start, as were
we as we're thinking people. But Wall

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Street doesn't really care about logic or
reason or logical outcomes. All it cares

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about is getting on the right side
of the trade, right Well, sure,

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yeah, if of course the Wall
Street's known for that word, the

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starter is with the g right greed, and so they want to be on

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the right side of the trade at
all times. And you know, as

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far as sort of where we go
from here and where we look for opportunities.

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Even in you know, our discussions
with clients on a you know,

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a daily basis, we're talking about
where to find opportunity right now. I'm

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sure a lot of those listening and
watching are doing the exact same. And

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we start to think about harder assets, you know, real estate comes to

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mind immediately. We've talked a lot
with folks in the past, you know,

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even a couple of weeks about where
commodities are sitting today. A lot

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of cash, as you would well
know, of course, with rates higher,

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has been sitting on the sidelines.
And so as rates come down,

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as that cash starts paying less of
a premium, I think that looking at

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commodities as well. Starts to make
a whole lot of sense. I couldn't

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agree with you more. It's just
it seems obvious to me. And yet

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Wall Street can never see the forest
through the trees kind of. And there's

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no real money for wall Street and
commodities unless you're buying ETFs or futures contracts

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or options. But if you're investing
in say physical gold or silver or you

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know, copper, then Wall Street's
left out. And they don't like that

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at all, do they. No, they don't want to be left out.

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They don't want to be They want
to make their you know, every

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single one of their financial goals and
so be it. You know, I

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don't think that that is something that
you can argue with or really I wish

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we could say we could affect it
quite easily, but you know, I

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don't think that that's practical. I
think we have to play that, you

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know, you have to play the
cars the way they're dealt, and so

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we have to say, okay,
well, how do we we make the

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best of the handle have? If
that makes sense, totally makes sense.

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And that so when we have this
conversation in January twenty twenty five, the

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market, the higher interest rates where
they're going to be at, and will

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you have helped your clients achieve their
with their goals? Well? Sure,

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so. I mean a lot of
the clients we work with are in that

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retirement phase carry and so they're starting
to say, hey, how can I

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actually live on what I've you know, built up over my entire life.

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And so the strategy that has to
be employed for somebody in that place,

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you know, is a very strategic
one, one that's focused on generating income.

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You know, maybe that looks like
income of furo rental property, potentially

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dividends. I've even looked at some
structured notes with clients lately. What I

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think, though, we need to
be careful of is the environment that we're

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walking into. So presuming that Jerome
Powell does do these three rate decreases and

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presuming inflation actually you know, stays
kind of well, i'll say under wraps

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or in this middling threes as measured
by the CPI. You know, that

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puts us in a place not too
dissimilar from where we were last spring when

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we had all these big bank busts. So everybody will remember Silicon Valley Banks

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name signature, Bank's name, and
ultimately the antidote to that problem, at

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least as far as the FED prescribed
it was the bank term funding program.

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That's really important, and it's still
going up every week, right absolutely so,

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just for everyone listening out there.
Of course, what that was is

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the Fed's way of giving regional banks, specifically all that liquidity so that they

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didn't end up like Silicon Valley Bank, having to sell down their depreciated you

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know, treasury assets and things that
they had bought in twenty twenty and twenty

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twenty one when interest rates were so
low and so basically though those were meant

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to be one year term loans,
and so if rates are in that you

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know, similar range as they were
at the time, that puts the banks

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back right where they were. Of
course, this was a kick the can

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down the line solution, as you
would imagine, and I think that I'm

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going to very much be looking for
the FED to extend or revamp that program

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in some way or another. Otherwise
I think that they're basically putting the nail

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on the coffin that we're going to
be going into, well, a big

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banking crisis. You could potentially look
at a recession even in those scenarios,

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because if without that liquidity, the
regional banking system is going to be right

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back where it was, you know, a little less than twelve months ago.

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Right, So they bought a little
bit of time. Maybe they'll merge

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out some of these bargining, right, isn't that it? Well, I

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don't know the exact solution they will
decide to use, I think, but

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I think that they're going to have
to do something one way or the other

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or otherwise you know, there's going
to be sort of some hell to pay

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for it. Unfortunately. Yeah,
So so they haven't solved anything, have

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they? No? Well, well, so I think everybody has been assuming,

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and I think the market's pricing in
that. They unfortunately, I think,

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perhaps wrongly, have aced this quote
unquote soft landing. But the hardest

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thing in gymnastics to do is stick
the landing, and I think that we

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have not stuck the landing yet.
I think a little bit far from it.

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Without seeing some real change at least
on the banking side, until that

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yield curve can get back to you
know, a normal I'll say, and

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not be inverted, this problem is
going to end up perpetuating. Yeah,

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all right, Well, I think
we will leave it at that. I

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think that come next year, this
time probably going to have more of the

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same, but a lot of it
depends what's happening overseas. We'd even begin

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to talk about the sure financial implosion
of China, financial, moral, ethical,

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and infrastructure. The infrastructure is crumbling
before very eyes, all the glorious

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infrastructure that they spend trillions of dollars
on. And that's a big problem.

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Population, Yeah, another thing crumbling. Hey, A lot of things,

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a lot of factors. So next
time we'll kind of glance on that.

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00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,559
Appreciate you coming on again. Just
tell us again where we find you,

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00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:31,320
how we connect with you on the
web. Sure, absolutely, you can

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find us at Pinebroke Financial dot com. Kerry. I appreciate your time.

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00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,519
Thanks for having me. All right, Hey, and you got a question

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00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,960
comment for Ted or myself. If
you're wondering about interest rates, whatever it

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00:11:43,039 --> 00:11:46,000
might be, shoot me an email
kl at carrielets dot com. We'll get

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00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:52,399
you an answered quickly and you'll find
a link to Ted's site in the show

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00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:56,639
that say this interview on Financial Survival
Network dot com. Sign up for your

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00:11:56,639 --> 00:12:00,759
free newsletter. Ted. Been a
pleasure really appreciate your com coming on and

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00:12:00,799 --> 00:12:03,679
we will talk to you again.
Thank you sir. How A go one,

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00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:09,600
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's

163
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:15,159
trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial

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00:12:15,279 --> 00:12:18,440
Survival Network now more than ever,