Using different most likely counts for wave structures, and also of course technical analysis
different technical indicators like cottage, sigh and macdee, etc. So everything has
to fit together because then it increases the probability of good entry and exit enormously.
You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information
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And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Terry Lutz. We are on location in Thailand, so
forgive the less than stellar sound quality, although it still sounds pretty good the
shows I did over the past few days. I don't have my special microphone
and all my processing and everything else like that, but nonetheless it still sounds
pretty darn good. This computer, this new Mac, really does a great
job. Hey got somebody for you. I've been reading his newsletter for a
while. I think you definitely want to check him out. He's a PhD.
He was an academic, but more importantly, he's had experience in the
real world as well as the academic world. And his name is doctor browna
voit Chich and the name of the newsletter is Bravo Cycles. There'll be a
link in the show notes so that you can sign up for it. If
you've got a question for him, please send me an email kl at carrie
let dot com. Hey, so Brandan, it's great to have you on
the show. And you know, you kind of like a technical guy.
You're looking at cycles, You're looking at chart formations, things like that.
What is your philosophy of making money in the market. Well, my philosophy
is really looking at these very advanced technical analysis techniques, and I use a
multi pronged approach. I looked at time cycles to see where the cycle speaks
and pros expected. Then I also look at cycles price projections. I really
want to see that time and price fit together as entry or exit points.
And I further verified that by using Elliot wait theory analysis using different most likely
counts for wave structures, and also of course technical analysis, different technical indicators
like CARRICI and macde etc. So everything has to fit together because then it
increases the probability of good entry and exit enormously. All right, So invention
cycles and a number of people follow cycles out there, and I follow them
myself. I'm a big believer in them. But the hardest part is finding
when the cycle begins and when it ends. Sometimes you don't know the cycle
happened until after it's over. Right. Well, it's possible to estimate cycles
with certain accuracy. You could never do them perfectly for various reasons. One
reason is that they constantly vary over time. You know the period of the
cycle, and often amplitude vary over time, perhaps influenced by larger or longer
cycles from nature or whatever. So Also, oftentimes cycles are not synchronous.
In other words, cycles of different periods are not synchrenous sometimes and death makes
it harder to estimate what's going on. I use multiple cycle methods, going
from traditional ones like psychoanalysis that are I'm sure you're familiar with and centered moving
averages, but I have developed a very sophisticated method based on the state of
the art and signal processing, so called time frequency analysis using wavelets, and
there I am able to estimate and detect multiple cycles and then find superposition of
them that gives me an estimate of their peaks and crows occur. But obviously
you always have to provide some tolerance because market news could affect especially some short
cycles, you know, or some big fundamental news, et cetera. So
what are some cycles that you follow regularly in your work? I usually follow
whatever is detected, but what I detect is usually cycles like ten twenty day,
forty day, eighty day, twenty weeks, forty weeks up to up
to eighteen months two year cycles. These are meaningful for trading and investing,
whether on multi week or multi month basis. But of course there are much
longer cycles like eighteen point six year cycle or transport cycle you know, and
other even longer one. And it's an interesting question because this eighteen point six
year cycle is expected to peak in late twenty five or early twenty six,
and also the sunspot cycle is expected to peak in late twenty five, so
stock market usually peaks coincidentally with the sunspot cycle, or actually a few months
earlier. So that suggests we could expect some major peak in late twenty five
or early twenty six. Interesting. I know, there's like an eight week
cycle for gold. I've heard of a one hundred year war cycle eighteen point
six year for real estate, right real estate every eighteenth rect yours, and
that one is uncannily accurate the real estate cycle, isn't it. I mean,
you look good, right, it's pretty good. Variations are maybe I
speaking from memory of variations or maybe several months historically, but it today and
you know, even a longer a qundred TIV cycle. It's also very good.
It's a fifty some year cycle, but unfortunately we have records only for
six of them, but very very accurtves a couple of years. Yeah,
so one hundred years from nineteen twenty nine brings us to twenty twenty nine,
and we could very well see an economic collapse. I mean, honestly,
my opinion is just looking at the news, we've seen our economic collapse.
So we're in the midst of it. And you know, it's so interesting
though, rather the cycles. So much of our life is dictated by cycles,
circadian rhythms, sleep cycles, birth, death, and you know,
midlife, old age, and yet so many of you out there just deny
the existence or are unaware that the cycles are even happening. Yeah, many
people are loved by the way. I take a look at my website.
I have a very nice presentation about all the review of these cycles, especially
long it ones. And since you mentioned twenty nine, which is one hundred
years from nineteen twenty nine stock market crash, in that presentations you will find
that I found several cycles that converge from twenty nine to early thirty thirty to
thirty three, So that could be a major major cycle law in the stock
markets. All right, And we've got a link in the show notes to
brno's website and newsletter. It's Bravo Cycles and just click it. It'll take
you right through to it. And so looking ahead here in the short term,
in the next eighteen months, basically you said this market peaks with the
sun cycles. Sunspot cycles. I've seen that theory before and something about human
nature were unpredictable, but when it comes to cycles, we come a lot
more predictable. So you think the market's going to continue on its rampage until
twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, or we're not going to see a
collapse. So what's your research telling you? Well, I see market down
this year. As a matter of fact, if you were reading my newsletters,
you probably noticed that I couldn't find excuses for market looking up. I
was supporting the last few months in October. But right now multiple market indexes
are in the peak area, and we may have seen the top top,
you know, yesterday, So what's happening. We should expect a cycle trough
in March April, then bounce into summer, and then another swing down into
late twenty four or early twenty five, probably early twenty five, because there
are more indexes that show cycled trough in early twenty five, and then we
should have very strong twenty five, you know, very strong rebound. Whether
that rebound is gonna take us to new highs or not, I don't know.
It's too early to say because time cycles don't tell you that. They
tell you turning points. But it's gonna be strong. Twenty five is going
to be a strong year, and then after that it's going to be down
in twenty seven, strong twenty eight, and then down into early twenty thirties.
Yeah, hard to believe. We're talking about the twenty thirties here,
you know, in around a while, and the years just happen to go
by like that. I mean, It's kind kind of remarkable, like that
these cycles are so prevalent and they're so important, and yet they're so ignored,
although the government doesn't ignore. After the Great Depression, the financial collapse
of nineteen twenty nine, the government funded this Institute for the research of the
economic cycles, and a lot of solid research came out of there, and
guys like Elliott Wave, I don't know if you know, doctor Charles Nenner,
Martin Armstrong, all of these guys are like that data. Yeah,
so what about the war cycle? Do you track a war cycle? No?
I just read you know. Look, look I'm strong just saying about
them, and there are a few other guys that follow war cycles, but
I don't. Sorry, and you couldn't follow everything. These are cycles.
So the most important cycles not just for your economic wellbeing, but for your
health as well. What are the most important cycles that you should be following.
Well, I haven't explored the relationship to help between cycles and help,
but you know, these planetary cycles are starting from Sun's cycle and Jupiter and
Sutter. They are as longer term cycles. They are most important for our
for influence on Earth and Earth's electromagnetic field. How that affects our help.
I have no idea, but these are the most important cycles for our life
of course, very pity, and there is also influence. But they are
much shorter, much shorter cycles. Yeah, so interesting, So can you
share with us some of your well some of the short term cycles, like
I know gold has an eight week cycle at least I've already mentioned before.
You follow the precious metals at all, I do. I do follow precious
metals and publish you know, gold cycles, you know, every month or
so. Right now gold is in a short cycle down turn, but still
has some potential this into summer. But it started actually a long term cycle
I think plast year and now speaking from memory, I think eight year cycle
or four year cycle. I could say it one hundred percent accuracy. But
speaking about commodities, I think the national gas is very interesting because it's going
to start right now about now two years very strong cycle. And it's also
incidentally it's also a positive seasonality for cornational gas. Plus it hit my all
my cycle targets for down. So normally when you don't have more down targets,
it should turn up. And whether it's today or within a month,
but it's going to go up, and gold is also going to go up
next few months after this consolidation. It's in a temporary downturn, but I
don't remember exactly the length of the cycle. Yeah, and you know it
so interesting natural gas follows that cycle very closely, more than just about any
other commodity. And yet the traders call trading natural gas the widow maker.
That's correct, that's said, but but very closely adheres to the cycles.
Hey what about food? Uh you know they've been down wheat and corn and
all that good stuff. I just tweeted about. Yeah, sorry, yeah,
yeah, tell us your lady. I just I just tweeted last night.
And corn I think it's hitting the cycle, all major cycle law and
it's gonna be in a two years up face and uh weat two uh two
is wat is still bottoming? But you know, any any week from now
and the end of March, it should bottom and should have one plus year
very strong cycle. I mean, how cycle one plus year two year cycle
over all? Yeah. Interesting. So when you started your cycle research,
was there any cycle that you uncovered or found evidence of that really surprised you.
Well, I started this long time ago, you know, when I
was doing my master's thesis that was like almost forty years ago. Sounds suppose
sundate ourselves, let's not give our cycles away. So I was actually already
then surprised how that sunspot cycle is connected with different cycles on Earth electromagnetic cycles.
It really affects us a lot. But searching these financial market cycles,
I couldn't say that I discovered many new ones. I found one point seventy
five years that seems nobody noticed before, but otherwise I just verified not other
people found out. And what was a little bit surprising to me that there
are several of these cycles that are very significant and prominent in financial markets that
are not harmonically related. Like, for example, there is a four year
cycle, and then seven year cycle very prominent, but it's not harmonic to
almost any other cycle. There is twenty eight year cycle, so but people
don't notice it very much, and then eleven year cycle is not it's not
pharmonic with seven or four. So all the original cycle theories from Dewey and
and uh Hurst and the other guys, where they're all cycles are harmonics factor
of two or factor of three. I found that's not the case, and
I usually find two sets of cycles that are harmonics but not mutually with each
other, and then some single players like eleven year. Yeah, you would
think like all the agricultural commodities, their cycles would be harmonic, but yet
they're not. They're independent, right, Like cotton could be moving one way
and orn and wheat could be moving another. Even corn and wheat can be
moving opposite ways, and you would think they'd be part of the same cycle.
That's that's a little bit surprising because most of these commodities should be should
be tied to the seven year cycle. If you remember that seven year cycle
was prominent in Jewish culture but also in Indian old Indian culture. You know,
Vedas talked about seven year cycle, that was agricultural cycle. Every seven
years, there was a terrible job that, you know, nothing, nothing
worked. But people also almost forgot about because agriculture is not the main part
of our society anymore, so people forgot about that cycle and the death cycle.
Every seven years they'd have in jubilee and the slaves their deaths would be
forgiven, and then you'd have the grand cycle, the forty nine year Grand
Jubilee and exact maybe we really haven't gotten away from that. I mean,
when you look at the world's problems and the debt, there's going to have
to be a jubilee at some point. It's unsustainable at the current rate,
isn't it. Yeah, well, that's what some people are talking about,
and I don't know about that. As you achieved it progress in the more
developed parts of the world, birth rates are not so great, so you
know, population is going down. So as the rest of the world develops,
that probably will be solved by itself. Yeah, I guess so.
Well. I think you're right. But the government's out of control spending and
debt. It's not just the United States, although we're the leader of it,
it's virtually every country in the world. And I think that cycle is
coming to an end as well. Huh, I definitely think so. And
the superpower cycle over the years, you know, that runs its course as
well. Right, that's true. That's Dhalia was actually talking about a lot
about superpower cycle. He has a look, I don't know if you've seen
it. Yeah, I've seen it. I think, yeah, right,
sure, you got a guy like him, You really have to pay attention
when he says something, so hey, it's bravo cycles. The links in
the show notes, Brown, I really appreciate you coming on sharing your wisdom.
I always like to see people who've been doing these things for decades because
you have a body of work that lends more credibility and that you're ready to
adjust theories, cycles, intervals where necessary. I think that's crucial. If
you got a question for doctor Brewna or myself, just shoot me an email
k L at Kerrie Leuts dot com. While you're at the site the show
notes on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please sign up for your free newsletter.
Hey ron It, it's been a real pleasure. We're definitely going to
have you back on pleasure of his all mine. Thanks for listening to Carrie
Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,