1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:09,119 Using different most likely counts for wave structures, and also of course technical analysis 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:18,039 different technical indicators like cottage, sigh and macdee, etc. So everything has 3 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:25,440 to fit together because then it increases the probability of good entry and exit enormously. 4 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:30,879 You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information 5 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:36,359 you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need 6 00:00:36,399 --> 00:00:42,960 the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com 7 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:49,679 and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, 8 00:00:53,119 --> 00:00:58,280 And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. 9 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:03,320 I'm your host, Terry Lutz. We are on location in Thailand, so 10 00:01:03,479 --> 00:01:08,040 forgive the less than stellar sound quality, although it still sounds pretty good the 11 00:01:08,239 --> 00:01:12,920 shows I did over the past few days. I don't have my special microphone 12 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:19,239 and all my processing and everything else like that, but nonetheless it still sounds 13 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,400 pretty darn good. This computer, this new Mac, really does a great 14 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,439 job. Hey got somebody for you. I've been reading his newsletter for a 15 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:33,000 while. I think you definitely want to check him out. He's a PhD. 16 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:38,680 He was an academic, but more importantly, he's had experience in the 17 00:01:38,719 --> 00:01:44,760 real world as well as the academic world. And his name is doctor browna 18 00:01:45,439 --> 00:01:51,439 voit Chich and the name of the newsletter is Bravo Cycles. There'll be a 19 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,959 link in the show notes so that you can sign up for it. If 20 00:01:53,959 --> 00:01:59,719 you've got a question for him, please send me an email kl at carrie 21 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,799 let dot com. Hey, so Brandan, it's great to have you on 22 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:08,400 the show. And you know, you kind of like a technical guy. 23 00:02:08,759 --> 00:02:14,319 You're looking at cycles, You're looking at chart formations, things like that. 24 00:02:14,719 --> 00:02:19,159 What is your philosophy of making money in the market. Well, my philosophy 25 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:28,759 is really looking at these very advanced technical analysis techniques, and I use a 26 00:02:28,879 --> 00:02:36,800 multi pronged approach. I looked at time cycles to see where the cycle speaks 27 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:46,199 and pros expected. Then I also look at cycles price projections. I really 28 00:02:46,719 --> 00:02:54,639 want to see that time and price fit together as entry or exit points. 29 00:02:55,599 --> 00:03:07,000 And I further verified that by using Elliot wait theory analysis using different most likely 30 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:15,759 counts for wave structures, and also of course technical analysis, different technical indicators 31 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:23,680 like CARRICI and macde etc. So everything has to fit together because then it 32 00:03:23,879 --> 00:03:31,000 increases the probability of good entry and exit enormously. All right, So invention 33 00:03:31,319 --> 00:03:38,280 cycles and a number of people follow cycles out there, and I follow them 34 00:03:38,319 --> 00:03:42,360 myself. I'm a big believer in them. But the hardest part is finding 35 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:46,919 when the cycle begins and when it ends. Sometimes you don't know the cycle 36 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:55,280 happened until after it's over. Right. Well, it's possible to estimate cycles 37 00:03:55,919 --> 00:04:03,960 with certain accuracy. You could never do them perfectly for various reasons. One 38 00:04:04,039 --> 00:04:13,000 reason is that they constantly vary over time. You know the period of the 39 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:21,279 cycle, and often amplitude vary over time, perhaps influenced by larger or longer 40 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:31,879 cycles from nature or whatever. So Also, oftentimes cycles are not synchronous. 41 00:04:31,879 --> 00:04:41,279 In other words, cycles of different periods are not synchrenous sometimes and death makes 42 00:04:41,319 --> 00:04:46,959 it harder to estimate what's going on. I use multiple cycle methods, going 43 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:57,079 from traditional ones like psychoanalysis that are I'm sure you're familiar with and centered moving 44 00:04:57,319 --> 00:05:04,800 averages, but I have developed a very sophisticated method based on the state of 45 00:05:04,879 --> 00:05:14,360 the art and signal processing, so called time frequency analysis using wavelets, and 46 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:24,240 there I am able to estimate and detect multiple cycles and then find superposition of 47 00:05:24,399 --> 00:05:32,040 them that gives me an estimate of their peaks and crows occur. But obviously 48 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:40,079 you always have to provide some tolerance because market news could affect especially some short 49 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:45,720 cycles, you know, or some big fundamental news, et cetera. So 50 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:51,120 what are some cycles that you follow regularly in your work? I usually follow 51 00:05:51,600 --> 00:06:00,600 whatever is detected, but what I detect is usually cycles like ten twenty day, 52 00:06:00,959 --> 00:06:06,959 forty day, eighty day, twenty weeks, forty weeks up to up 53 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:15,600 to eighteen months two year cycles. These are meaningful for trading and investing, 54 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:20,480 whether on multi week or multi month basis. But of course there are much 55 00:06:20,519 --> 00:06:28,480 longer cycles like eighteen point six year cycle or transport cycle you know, and 56 00:06:30,079 --> 00:06:35,759 other even longer one. And it's an interesting question because this eighteen point six 57 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:45,319 year cycle is expected to peak in late twenty five or early twenty six, 58 00:06:45,759 --> 00:06:51,000 and also the sunspot cycle is expected to peak in late twenty five, so 59 00:06:51,120 --> 00:07:00,920 stock market usually peaks coincidentally with the sunspot cycle, or actually a few months 60 00:07:00,959 --> 00:07:09,839 earlier. So that suggests we could expect some major peak in late twenty five 61 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:14,959 or early twenty six. Interesting. I know, there's like an eight week 62 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:20,800 cycle for gold. I've heard of a one hundred year war cycle eighteen point 63 00:07:20,839 --> 00:07:27,399 six year for real estate, right real estate every eighteenth rect yours, and 64 00:07:27,399 --> 00:07:31,879 that one is uncannily accurate the real estate cycle, isn't it. I mean, 65 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:36,639 you look good, right, it's pretty good. Variations are maybe I 66 00:07:36,879 --> 00:07:44,759 speaking from memory of variations or maybe several months historically, but it today and 67 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:49,600 you know, even a longer a qundred TIV cycle. It's also very good. 68 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:56,120 It's a fifty some year cycle, but unfortunately we have records only for 69 00:07:56,839 --> 00:08:01,759 six of them, but very very accurtves a couple of years. Yeah, 70 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:07,639 so one hundred years from nineteen twenty nine brings us to twenty twenty nine, 71 00:08:09,399 --> 00:08:13,439 and we could very well see an economic collapse. I mean, honestly, 72 00:08:13,879 --> 00:08:18,879 my opinion is just looking at the news, we've seen our economic collapse. 73 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,600 So we're in the midst of it. And you know, it's so interesting 74 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:28,839 though, rather the cycles. So much of our life is dictated by cycles, 75 00:08:28,879 --> 00:08:33,759 circadian rhythms, sleep cycles, birth, death, and you know, 76 00:08:33,879 --> 00:08:39,600 midlife, old age, and yet so many of you out there just deny 77 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:46,080 the existence or are unaware that the cycles are even happening. Yeah, many 78 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,399 people are loved by the way. I take a look at my website. 79 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:56,399 I have a very nice presentation about all the review of these cycles, especially 80 00:08:56,519 --> 00:09:01,159 long it ones. And since you mentioned twenty nine, which is one hundred 81 00:09:01,279 --> 00:09:09,559 years from nineteen twenty nine stock market crash, in that presentations you will find 82 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:18,879 that I found several cycles that converge from twenty nine to early thirty thirty to 83 00:09:18,879 --> 00:09:26,399 thirty three, So that could be a major major cycle law in the stock 84 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,840 markets. All right, And we've got a link in the show notes to 85 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:37,519 brno's website and newsletter. It's Bravo Cycles and just click it. It'll take 86 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:43,120 you right through to it. And so looking ahead here in the short term, 87 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:48,600 in the next eighteen months, basically you said this market peaks with the 88 00:09:48,639 --> 00:09:54,720 sun cycles. Sunspot cycles. I've seen that theory before and something about human 89 00:09:54,799 --> 00:10:00,519 nature were unpredictable, but when it comes to cycles, we come a lot 90 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:05,440 more predictable. So you think the market's going to continue on its rampage until 91 00:10:05,879 --> 00:10:09,440 twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, or we're not going to see a 92 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:16,000 collapse. So what's your research telling you? Well, I see market down 93 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:22,440 this year. As a matter of fact, if you were reading my newsletters, 94 00:10:22,759 --> 00:10:28,080 you probably noticed that I couldn't find excuses for market looking up. I 95 00:10:28,159 --> 00:10:35,879 was supporting the last few months in October. But right now multiple market indexes 96 00:10:35,919 --> 00:10:41,519 are in the peak area, and we may have seen the top top, 97 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:52,080 you know, yesterday, So what's happening. We should expect a cycle trough 98 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:58,879 in March April, then bounce into summer, and then another swing down into 99 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:05,360 late twenty four or early twenty five, probably early twenty five, because there 100 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:13,000 are more indexes that show cycled trough in early twenty five, and then we 101 00:11:13,039 --> 00:11:20,519 should have very strong twenty five, you know, very strong rebound. Whether 102 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,039 that rebound is gonna take us to new highs or not, I don't know. 103 00:11:24,159 --> 00:11:28,600 It's too early to say because time cycles don't tell you that. They 104 00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:33,559 tell you turning points. But it's gonna be strong. Twenty five is going 105 00:11:33,639 --> 00:11:39,399 to be a strong year, and then after that it's going to be down 106 00:11:39,519 --> 00:11:46,919 in twenty seven, strong twenty eight, and then down into early twenty thirties. 107 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,799 Yeah, hard to believe. We're talking about the twenty thirties here, 108 00:11:50,279 --> 00:11:56,440 you know, in around a while, and the years just happen to go 109 00:11:56,519 --> 00:12:01,919 by like that. I mean, It's kind kind of remarkable, like that 110 00:12:01,039 --> 00:12:07,000 these cycles are so prevalent and they're so important, and yet they're so ignored, 111 00:12:07,039 --> 00:12:15,480 although the government doesn't ignore. After the Great Depression, the financial collapse 112 00:12:15,519 --> 00:12:18,759 of nineteen twenty nine, the government funded this Institute for the research of the 113 00:12:20,039 --> 00:12:24,679 economic cycles, and a lot of solid research came out of there, and 114 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,200 guys like Elliott Wave, I don't know if you know, doctor Charles Nenner, 115 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:37,759 Martin Armstrong, all of these guys are like that data. Yeah, 116 00:12:37,519 --> 00:12:43,840 so what about the war cycle? Do you track a war cycle? No? 117 00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:52,360 I just read you know. Look, look I'm strong just saying about 118 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,840 them, and there are a few other guys that follow war cycles, but 119 00:12:58,399 --> 00:13:03,600 I don't. Sorry, and you couldn't follow everything. These are cycles. 120 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:09,279 So the most important cycles not just for your economic wellbeing, but for your 121 00:13:09,279 --> 00:13:11,919 health as well. What are the most important cycles that you should be following. 122 00:13:13,519 --> 00:13:18,480 Well, I haven't explored the relationship to help between cycles and help, 123 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:26,559 but you know, these planetary cycles are starting from Sun's cycle and Jupiter and 124 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:33,519 Sutter. They are as longer term cycles. They are most important for our 125 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:41,919 for influence on Earth and Earth's electromagnetic field. How that affects our help. 126 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:48,600 I have no idea, but these are the most important cycles for our life 127 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,600 of course, very pity, and there is also influence. But they are 128 00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:58,039 much shorter, much shorter cycles. Yeah, so interesting, So can you 129 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:03,000 share with us some of your well some of the short term cycles, like 130 00:14:03,039 --> 00:14:09,759 I know gold has an eight week cycle at least I've already mentioned before. 131 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:15,159 You follow the precious metals at all, I do. I do follow precious 132 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:22,159 metals and publish you know, gold cycles, you know, every month or 133 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:31,639 so. Right now gold is in a short cycle down turn, but still 134 00:14:31,679 --> 00:14:41,840 has some potential this into summer. But it started actually a long term cycle 135 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,279 I think plast year and now speaking from memory, I think eight year cycle 136 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:52,000 or four year cycle. I could say it one hundred percent accuracy. But 137 00:14:54,480 --> 00:15:03,360 speaking about commodities, I think the national gas is very interesting because it's going 138 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:09,799 to start right now about now two years very strong cycle. And it's also 139 00:15:11,679 --> 00:15:20,279 incidentally it's also a positive seasonality for cornational gas. Plus it hit my all 140 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:28,720 my cycle targets for down. So normally when you don't have more down targets, 141 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:33,919 it should turn up. And whether it's today or within a month, 142 00:15:35,159 --> 00:15:39,480 but it's going to go up, and gold is also going to go up 143 00:15:39,559 --> 00:15:46,200 next few months after this consolidation. It's in a temporary downturn, but I 144 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:52,879 don't remember exactly the length of the cycle. Yeah, and you know it 145 00:15:52,360 --> 00:16:00,919 so interesting natural gas follows that cycle very closely, more than just about any 146 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:07,480 other commodity. And yet the traders call trading natural gas the widow maker. 147 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,559 That's correct, that's said, but but very closely adheres to the cycles. 148 00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:17,919 Hey what about food? Uh you know they've been down wheat and corn and 149 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:22,679 all that good stuff. I just tweeted about. Yeah, sorry, yeah, 150 00:16:22,159 --> 00:16:27,399 yeah, tell us your lady. I just I just tweeted last night. 151 00:16:27,519 --> 00:16:34,279 And corn I think it's hitting the cycle, all major cycle law and 152 00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:44,000 it's gonna be in a two years up face and uh weat two uh two 153 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,759 is wat is still bottoming? But you know, any any week from now 154 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:56,559 and the end of March, it should bottom and should have one plus year 155 00:16:56,919 --> 00:17:03,600 very strong cycle. I mean, how cycle one plus year two year cycle 156 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:10,279 over all? Yeah. Interesting. So when you started your cycle research, 157 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:15,880 was there any cycle that you uncovered or found evidence of that really surprised you. 158 00:17:15,799 --> 00:17:21,000 Well, I started this long time ago, you know, when I 159 00:17:21,039 --> 00:17:26,839 was doing my master's thesis that was like almost forty years ago. Sounds suppose 160 00:17:26,079 --> 00:17:36,039 sundate ourselves, let's not give our cycles away. So I was actually already 161 00:17:36,279 --> 00:17:45,799 then surprised how that sunspot cycle is connected with different cycles on Earth electromagnetic cycles. 162 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:52,039 It really affects us a lot. But searching these financial market cycles, 163 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:59,079 I couldn't say that I discovered many new ones. I found one point seventy 164 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:07,400 five years that seems nobody noticed before, but otherwise I just verified not other 165 00:18:07,519 --> 00:18:15,720 people found out. And what was a little bit surprising to me that there 166 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:26,319 are several of these cycles that are very significant and prominent in financial markets that 167 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,440 are not harmonically related. Like, for example, there is a four year 168 00:18:30,559 --> 00:18:38,680 cycle, and then seven year cycle very prominent, but it's not harmonic to 169 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:45,440 almost any other cycle. There is twenty eight year cycle, so but people 170 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:52,920 don't notice it very much, and then eleven year cycle is not it's not 171 00:18:55,400 --> 00:19:03,519 pharmonic with seven or four. So all the original cycle theories from Dewey and 172 00:19:03,519 --> 00:19:12,599 and uh Hurst and the other guys, where they're all cycles are harmonics factor 173 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:18,039 of two or factor of three. I found that's not the case, and 174 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:25,119 I usually find two sets of cycles that are harmonics but not mutually with each 175 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:30,599 other, and then some single players like eleven year. Yeah, you would 176 00:19:30,599 --> 00:19:37,079 think like all the agricultural commodities, their cycles would be harmonic, but yet 177 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,480 they're not. They're independent, right, Like cotton could be moving one way 178 00:19:41,599 --> 00:19:45,920 and orn and wheat could be moving another. Even corn and wheat can be 179 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,799 moving opposite ways, and you would think they'd be part of the same cycle. 180 00:19:51,319 --> 00:19:59,119 That's that's a little bit surprising because most of these commodities should be should 181 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:04,839 be tied to the seven year cycle. If you remember that seven year cycle 182 00:20:06,039 --> 00:20:15,559 was prominent in Jewish culture but also in Indian old Indian culture. You know, 183 00:20:15,759 --> 00:20:21,240 Vedas talked about seven year cycle, that was agricultural cycle. Every seven 184 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:26,039 years, there was a terrible job that, you know, nothing, nothing 185 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:36,640 worked. But people also almost forgot about because agriculture is not the main part 186 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:41,759 of our society anymore, so people forgot about that cycle and the death cycle. 187 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:48,160 Every seven years they'd have in jubilee and the slaves their deaths would be 188 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:53,440 forgiven, and then you'd have the grand cycle, the forty nine year Grand 189 00:20:53,519 --> 00:20:59,279 Jubilee and exact maybe we really haven't gotten away from that. I mean, 190 00:20:59,599 --> 00:21:03,880 when you look at the world's problems and the debt, there's going to have 191 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:07,400 to be a jubilee at some point. It's unsustainable at the current rate, 192 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:12,200 isn't it. Yeah, well, that's what some people are talking about, 193 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:19,839 and I don't know about that. As you achieved it progress in the more 194 00:21:21,079 --> 00:21:26,680 developed parts of the world, birth rates are not so great, so you 195 00:21:26,759 --> 00:21:33,079 know, population is going down. So as the rest of the world develops, 196 00:21:33,279 --> 00:21:37,640 that probably will be solved by itself. Yeah, I guess so. 197 00:21:37,519 --> 00:21:44,319 Well. I think you're right. But the government's out of control spending and 198 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,079 debt. It's not just the United States, although we're the leader of it, 199 00:21:48,079 --> 00:21:52,680 it's virtually every country in the world. And I think that cycle is 200 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,720 coming to an end as well. Huh, I definitely think so. And 201 00:21:56,799 --> 00:22:02,400 the superpower cycle over the years, you know, that runs its course as 202 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:08,519 well. Right, that's true. That's Dhalia was actually talking about a lot 203 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:14,680 about superpower cycle. He has a look, I don't know if you've seen 204 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,440 it. Yeah, I've seen it. I think, yeah, right, 205 00:22:18,519 --> 00:22:22,279 sure, you got a guy like him, You really have to pay attention 206 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,119 when he says something, so hey, it's bravo cycles. The links in 207 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,160 the show notes, Brown, I really appreciate you coming on sharing your wisdom. 208 00:22:30,559 --> 00:22:34,519 I always like to see people who've been doing these things for decades because 209 00:22:34,839 --> 00:22:41,160 you have a body of work that lends more credibility and that you're ready to 210 00:22:41,279 --> 00:22:48,279 adjust theories, cycles, intervals where necessary. I think that's crucial. If 211 00:22:48,279 --> 00:22:52,759 you got a question for doctor Brewna or myself, just shoot me an email 212 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,119 k L at Kerrie Leuts dot com. While you're at the site the show 213 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:02,160 notes on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please sign up for your free newsletter. 214 00:23:02,279 --> 00:23:03,839 Hey ron It, it's been a real pleasure. We're definitely going to 215 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,640 have you back on pleasure of his all mine. Thanks for listening to Carrie 216 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:14,920 Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, 217 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:21,680 go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,