The largest gainer in the S and P five hundred by far on that day,
while the Dow and the S and P were getting their ass added to
them, So that put gold stocks on the radar. I think for the
general investor and these funds. Now, if once Q two comes out and
we have another blowout core when you're going to I mean, like I said,
the gold prices averaged over twenty three hundred dollars here in Q two,
Unless you know, gold falls out of bed for some reason in the next
moment, it looks like it's going to average over twenty three hundred and Q
two. You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable
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ever. And well, you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, gold has been blazing hot,
same with silver. Today silver is over thirty two bucks an ounce.
We're just a couple more days left to go in May, and will the
junior miners shortly follows suit. That's the question. Our good friend David Earthley
is with us now, and of course you know his site very well Junior
Minor Junkie dot com. And if you've got a question for David myself,
shoot me an email kl at Carrie Lutz dot com. David, Hey,
it's great to connect with you. It's been a while. A lot's been
going on here. Hey, Kerry, great to see it you too.
Man So Bryce a goal, you know, twenty four hundred right now,
it's start attacking it. Today is a twenty three thirty something whatever, it
doesn't really matter. At this point, we had to close over two thousand.
It's never looked back. Now we're looking at a potential monthly close for
silver of thirty two or higher. Yeah, it's interesting, you know.
Once we've had, once we had that thirteen year cup and handle breakout in
the gold price above that twenty twenty one hundred level, which had been resistance
for thirteen years, the gold price has taken off like a scalded cat.
Once we had that technical confirmation when we had a monthly close above twenty one
hundred at the end of March, and it was also the end of the
first quarter. So yeah, and now silver is appearing to do the same
thing. At thirty dollars was resistance for quite a long time, and it
looks like we're going to have a monthly close above thirty this Friday, which
would be a technical confirmation of a breakout in silver. And all this was
foretold by both the miners and silver outperforming the gold price over the past few
months. And what's more important is the silj which is the silver junior et
F that's been outperforming not only the miners, the gold miners, but it's
also been outperforming gold. So we got so we have the silver junior et
F outperforming the miners, which are outperforming gold and the gold price. So
it's it's it's very bullish here for for the precious metal sector. While this
consolidation is taking place in gold, and you have silver continuing to show this
this relative strength. And more importantly, you take a look at the gold
silver ratio. That eighty to one level has been a level to watch for
quite some time, and now it's now it's trending below eighty. I think
it's around seventy right now. So you see that, you see that going
down. That's very bullish for the sector because silver, well, once the
gold price breaks out and takes off, then silver joins the party and that's
when you got a full blow bullmark market in the precious metals. All right,
So in your expert opinion, since we're for gold anyway, we're heading
into uncharted territory. Silver is still trading just around two thirds of its all
time high. How high can these metals go? Oh? Well, you
know, I don't like to make broad forecasts, you know, for the
future that much. I mean, I'd be very happy with a thirty dollar
floor in the silver price, along with a twenty dollar floor in the goal
price, which we already have. But if you take a look at technically
at the silver price, if we get that monthly close above thirty two dollars
this Friday, there's not a lot of resistance until thirty four to thirty five,
and I wouldn't be surprised to see that that level scene visited rather quickly.
We had a short squeeze going on in the copper market, that is
that is subsided, and now it's transferred into the silver market. If you
take a look at at Chinese demand, Chinese central bank demand, citizen demand,
that's what's driving the market right now. I mean, if you take
a look at the premiums in silver and Shanghai, they're at twelve and a
half percent the premium physical silver and Shagai and the gold premiums are at over
two percent. So that's what's driving the market here is Asian demand. And
Indian physical demand is really picked up recently also, so you know, because
you you know, gold is reigned supreme in India, and when the gold
price it has become too expensive, they start buying silver. And that's what's
happening in India. Barman's gold. And we're coming up to the marrying season
in India, the dowry season, and that's when things generally really have taken
off in India in the past, so right, and there's also election going
on there too right now. So yes, a lot of interesting things happening
in India. A lot of elections taken place all over the place and leading
to the general feeling of political geopolitical instability. We got wars going on,
not just the two wars that are announced, but other wars that are a
little more stealthy. It seems like everyone in the world wants to kill each
other. Unfortunately, yes, that you know, that's that's the that's the
perfect storm for the for the precious metals here unfortunately. You know, as
far as the geopolitical situation concerned, that's that's keeping a solid that's keeping solid
buying and in both silver, in both silver and gold. Now, inflation
is not waning, taxes are rising, America's debt burden is off the charts
now. It's that the pause I scheme, that is that is uh,
the the basically the federal Reserve and the US government is in full force now
with a trillion dollars of debt being added every year now and it's I think
every hundred days, three hundred days, every one hundred days, a trillion
dollars of debt is added and there's no intention of paying it, paying any
of it off. There just can can continue going to going to finance old
debt with new debt. And the gold prices sniff that out. The gold,
gold and silver both are breaking out in all currencies. You know.
That's what it took for the gold price to finally becoming into a bull market
was was for the gold price to break out in the US dollar, which
is a world reserve currency still, and that's that's taking place. So you
know, you've got the wars going on, You've got the the inflation situation
which is which is basically creating a stagflationary situation. That's what gold sniffed out.
Also, you know you've got you've got inflation higher than the than GDP
growth. We got another GDP number coming out tomorrow and then a PCE inflation
statistic coming out on Friday. That's the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. And
we know, we know those aren't real inflation statistics. Anyway, Anybody who
goes in the store and buys groceries or has to has to pay it,
has to pay a bill, knows that inflation is a lot higher than what
they say it is. In unemployment is a lot higher than they say it
is. I mean, most a lot of these people are working two three
jobs, and a lot of these these new jobs have been government jobs,
and government jobs don't add anything to to economic growth. So, I mean,
all these things are starting to manifest themselves in the in the rising gold
and sober prices. I couldn't agree with you more. And you know,
these government workers, that's kind of an oxymoron, you know, exactly,
exactly really, you know. But hey, so the key is with all
this uncertainty, all of this craziness that's going on, opportunities get created,
right, absolutely, yeah. I mean the stock market he has kept going
higher because of capital flows coming over from Europe because things are much worse there.
Just buy Dow Blue chips, put your money there. And but the
stock market is starting, it appears to be starting to roll over here and
into crash season, which is which starts in August. So I mean the
streets are littered with with shorts trying to call a top in the stock market.
I mean that's another thing keeping it higher is shorts get aggressive when they
start to see it rolling over, and then they have to cover when when
positive economic data comes out or when when uh, positive earnings comes out in
in a in a in a major Dow company or a major AI company,
you know in Vidia, now the entire market cap in Vidia, you could
buy the entire Canadian stock market now market cap of Video. So just incredible.
How how how how the AI bubble just continues to grow you know,
but that's you know, that's on the outside, you know, that's that's
the poster child is an video. But underneath the if you look underneath the
hood, a lot of these other companies are are starting to roll over.
But you know, I mean, once we have a correction in the stock
market, it's probably going to be just that, just a correction of fifteen
to twenty percent correction, and then it's probably going to start going back up
again. Well, you know that rates have to be cut. Oh,
they know it. They have to. Yeah, you know, in a
rising inflationary environment. That's the thing is gold is sniffing out. They're going
to have to back off on that fantasy two percent target and lower rates.
And once that once, once, once the market, once the market sees
that, that's when the bowl market really gets going. I mean, we're
just in the early stages of this gold boat market exactly. You take a
look at at history. You know, I've been in this sector for over
twenty years, and when I started to get into it, it was five
hundred dollars. Five hundred dollars gold was that was the magic number, right
dollar gold was unable to be vanquished. It was it created another cup and
handle right below five hundred, and it was about a thirteen forty twelve thirteen
year cup and handle below five hundred. And once we had that monthly close
about five hundred, gold doubled within it. Within a couple of years,
it got to one thousand dollars pretty quickly. So if you take a look
at that happening again, then of course gold breaking out from a thirteen year
cup and handle pattern below two thousand, a doubling would be four thousand dollars.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see gold at four thousand dollars within a
year or so. Me neither, And I have a couple of years on
you. I started buying gold in ninety nine at two hundred and eighty bucks
announce wow. And and you know I was always a gold bug from the
time I was a kid. Yeah, me too. I went through my
father's change when I was a kid to find silver dimes. Yeah, silver
orders. I still have them, I remember. So this is nineteen sixty
five. My brother came into the kitchen and he had like a handful of
silver quarters and he dropped them on the floor. And you know how in
that sound that client that you know it's silver, and then he dropped the
copper clad ones and new ones and he's like he dropped the bottle cap on
the floor. Yeah, garbage. I never knew that that particular moment in
life would have any effect over my future. But here I am, you
know, been here for fifteen years espousing this sector, and let's face it,
there's big difference between the metal and the stocks. Oh, big,
big difference, yes, especially during this bull run. I mean this is
he's not your father's bullmarket new But the point is that eventually, you know,
the metal will the stock should be leading the metal. It hasn't been
the case now, but eventually it's going to happen. Because look, thirty
dollars goal, thirty two dollars, I mean thirty two dollars silver, David,
What does that do to the economics of every silver mine out there,
including the byproduct? Oh they've been they've been operating in a loss for so
many years, you know, but twenty five dollars all in sustaining costs has
been basically the level. And now that it's now that it's if once we
have that floor at thirty, you know, most of these silver producers are
going to be profitable now, and basically it's the but you want what you
really want to look at is that margin compression that held the stocks back for
so long for the past four years. Right the Q one, you started
to see it. In Q one, the gold price averaged just below twenty
one hundred dollars an ounce, and the silver price averaged I think around twenty
three twenty two dollars an ounce. And if you take a look at the
at Q two, you know, we've got another month to go in Q
two, but the gold price is going to it looks like it's going to
average over twenty three hundred dollars. That's that's that's you know, almost three
hundred dollars probably going to berow three hundred dollars higher than Q one. And
these and these uh majors, these these mining companies are are going to be
throw are throwing off gobs of cash now because what was happening before was we
had we had margins, We're not increasing as high as as a gold price.
Right it was, margins were trailing the gold price rise. But now
margins are are rising, are basically staying pretty much where they are, maybe
rising a little bit while the gold price has taken off. So these companies
are are you know, they're Q twos are going to be phenomenal. I
mean Q when we had Q one results. Uh. Several weeks ago,
we had Numont, which is the poster child for the gold mine sector.
Right, I mean it's the only gold stock on the S and P five
hundred and it's also the world's largest producer by double right, I mean Igniko
now is number two, and they produce almost twice as much as Igniko.
Yeah, Barrack's no longer number two, it's now Igniko. So you have
so but you have Numont's share price hit eight hit around eighty bucks in early
twenty twenty two, while the gold price was still around two thousand. Well
it got down to around it's COVID low's around thirty even though the gold price
was even higher. So when you have the general that the general is,
you know is basically Newmont. When you have the general showing all this weakness
and remaining in a down trend and underperforming gold so much, then you know
it basically sours people from the sector. But now recently you had Newmont have
an off the charge quarter that it was their first quarter after they bbbled up
New Crest bandon off the darts quarter. The day they announced their their results,
the stock was up twelve and a half percent. It was it was
the only it was the largest gainer in the S and P five hundred by
far on that day while while the DOAL and the S and P were getting
their ass handed to them. So that put gold stocks on the radar.
I think for the general investor and these funds. Now, if once Q
two comes out and we have another blowout quarter, when you're going to I
mean, like I said, the gold prices averaged over twenty three hundred dollars
here in Q two, unless you know, gold falls out of bed for
some reason in the next moment, it looks like it's going to average over
twenty three hundred and Q two. These funds, these page funds, these
fund managers, they're no, they're no longer are going to be able to
ignore this sector anymore. They're going to have to participate, right And when
you see a flood of funds and big money coming into a small sector like
this at once, I mean, if you take the entire mining sector,
it's it's got the that's basically got the market cap of a round home depot
of the entire sector, and funds want to get in. I mean it's
going to be you know, the old case eupheism. I think it was
trying to put Niagara Falls through a garden hose. I love that euphemism.
So that's basically what you're going to see when these fund managers have to get
into the into the goal, especially if the stock market is starting to roll
over at the same time this happened. So we're going to start to have
Q two results in in I think late June. So that's what we're geary
up for. You know, while the goal price is consolidating below that round
number of twenty five hundred, that's the number it was shooting for. It's
it's got this you know, this double top that everybody's looking at right now
at twenty four fifty. So it's brought in some healthy profit taking into the
mining sector because it did get it. You know, it did go pretty
far, pretty fast, so we need some consolidation year. Uh but uh
yeah, I mean this is just the beginning. I mean, I know
people are a lot of people are frustrated with a lot of their juniors and
not really performing myself included. But you know, once it's this is the
way it always happens. You know, the the majors move, and the
royalty companies moved, then the mid tiers move, and then the juniors move.
And we've already seen some major moves in a lot of these juniors,
but we haven't seen the sector really take off yet. I mean, there's
still a lot of stragglers that you know that have that a lot of these
juniors they have great projects, but they mismanaged capital markets and they've correct and
they've ended up having to have too much delution. So their upside is now
is now lower than it was before. Say you accumulated a stock, you
know, last year ahead of this, and you were expecting the gold price
to break out, and you were expecting the miners to take off and the
juniors to take off with them, and you were accumulating these stocks and they
had ten times upside. But now with the dilution that these companies were forced
to take at lower prices, your ten baggers have now become two or three
baggers maybe at your accuterlation rice right, yep. They so with Newmont from
twenty three to recently to April, it made a perfect cup and handle.
Yeah, it curfect exactly. Yeah, you've got a nice cup and handle
in there. I mean it broke its down trend. Yeah, and yeah,
it's it's it's it's starting to lead now. And that's that's what you
need to see. You need to see the leader lead and it's volid,
but it needs to get above forty five forty six. That's that's where Newmont
gets getting. I think that's where that's when a lot more buying comes in
once. Once it gets above there probably won't be much longer. I mean
it should earnings should do it because whatever, well yeah, I mean plus
also you've seen Q two, you've seen the oil price go lower. Yeah,
so you've seen the oil price go lower, and you've seen the gold
price go exponentially higher. So you've got you know, the added to three
hundred dollars to your to the gold price from the average you know, twenty
seventy, twenty ninety and Q one, and you've got the oil price has
also gone down a couple bucks, you know, because you know, with
these miners, especially you know Newmont, we've got these big open pit mines.
You know, oil could be fifty sixty percent of your cost. Easy,
easy, It's the biggest single component of yours structure. And then the
labor which is just going higher than nothing you can do about that. And
then the US they're unionized as well, so yeah, they're all in sustaining
costs around fifteen hundred I think right around right, yeah. So so basically
you should see a huge earning spike in I don't know the insiders buying Neumont
at all. I haven't noticed recently. I haven't checked that. But like
I said, I mean you see a back to back blowout quarters in the
major, which is in the general, which is Newmont. They can no
longer poopoo this sector anymore. And you know, they've pretty much ignored it
because there really hasn't been a reason to get into it because of that margin
compression. While the stock market continues to go higher, AI continues to go
higher, Crypto continues to go higher. Why why should we mess with these
gold stocks that have been underperformers for so long when we were making so much
money in these other sectors. But like I said, no longer ignore it
once you know, once these Q two reports come out, all right,
So here I just popped up insider trades for Newmont, oh Okay. In
the past three months, there's been twelve open market buys and one sell.
In the past twelve months, there's third tent five buys and thirty nine cells,
which means that before this quarter there were actually only twenty three buys and
thirty nine cells. So that's telling you everything you need to know there that
the insiders know what's coming. They bought one hundred to one hundred and seventeen
thousand shares in the past three months. Oh in this sale was for nine
hundred and thirty five shares. Basically, there were no insider sales on Newmont.
Now I'm not telling anyone to buy it or anything else because but you
know the old saying there could be many reasons why an insider sells shares,
but there's only one reason why they buy them, right, especially if they're
buying in large blocks. Yeah, I mean, and you know these juniors,
you say, these little idy buys, and it's just it's just management
tried to put lipstick on their pig. Yeah. Well, their directors bought
little amounts, but the officer, Peter Wexler bought seventy one thousand shares,
so I don't know if he was exercising. Those are options, you know.
I can't spend the time right now to analyze the pattern, but open
market buys those are the ones we care about, obviously, and those have
been pretty vigorous. So interesting times here, David, just tell us how
we subscribe to Junior Minor Junkie and why we should. Okay, yeah,
you go to my website Junior Minor Junkie with a y dot com. And
I'm completely transparent with my trades, with my investing, and I teach investors
how to accumulate positions and how to also basically what my service offers is it's
basically a NonStop shop for the just metal sector. I give you an each
each weekly update, I give you a macro picture of what's happening, and
I do a little commentary, and I also cover all the stocks that I
own and that I recommend to subscribers. And I also have a watch list
of twenty more that that that I cover and top you know, the top
news stories of the week, and I break down technically what's going on with
with each stock each week and what I what I feel is what important events
have happened recently in the sector during that week. So and like I said,
completely transparent. You know, all the trades that I make, that
I buy, that I sell, the money that I made, the money
that I lost, everything is is basically all the information is there each week,
updated for my subscribers to see. So they say, they see my
mistakes, so they they learn from my mistakes as long as well as I
do. And before I invest in a company, I write up a full
detailed report of the company and I send it out to my subscribers and I
say, hey, this is a company I'm going I'm going to start buying.
So we all try to get into it at the same time. So
uh, basically we're all in it together in my service. I mean,
you know, that's the only way to do it, because you know,
my big, my, my big reason for investing in a stock in a
junior is I want to see that I want to see the management with skin
in the game. I want to see them participating. I want to see
them putting their hard earned money into the stock. So you know, if
if if if if, that's that's basically my number one rule before I get
into a stock is I want to see management participating in finances. I want
to see management holding shares. Then why not run my business that way?
All the companies that that that I recommend, I'm into and and I have
large positions, you know. It's it's it's it's a it's a very high
network PORTFOLI. So it's basically a trading service. So if you want to
learn how to accumulate juniors and how to take how to take responsibility of basically
your your training and your risk management. I teach all that in my in
my service. All right, excellent. Well, hey, it's always a
pleasure having you on. If you got any questions for David or myself,
shoot me an email KL at Carrie Lutz dot com. Link in the show
notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com to david site. So
please visit us, and while you're there, sign up for your free newsletter.
David. We're getting into exciting and very interesting times here. Hopefully we'll
all come out the other side with more than we started. Thanks Kerrey,
thanks a lot for having me on. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
Survival Network. Your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever