WEBVTT

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Not five miles an hour riding to
his head. You have it down first

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with the lumbonius face, and on
the very next pitch he up and stole

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second face with gradest be he wasn't
born, he had yes uniform. All

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right. Welcome to episode eighteen of
the Prospect B Sides Podcast. I am

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Nate Handy, joined again by the
four eyed rook Matt. How are you

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forget it? I'm even better than
the three eyed raven. I'm a four

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eyed rook. So we're looking into
the past, we're looking into the future.

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We're prospecting for your B sides.
Such a mystic deep cut there,

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I guess it's not that big of
a deep cut. Game of Thrones was

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like the most popular show on television
for like a decade. So yeah,

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my wife was really into it.
I got too confused. It was way

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too too many characters. Yeah,
we loved it. It was a fun,

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fun watch for us. But the
ending was left a little bit of

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a sour taste. That's what That's
what I hear. It seems to be

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the consensus opinion there. But AnyWho, first year player Arms, Matt,

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first year player Arm episode. I
think there's a lot of contradiction, at

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least for me thinking about and how
I play this dynasty game, how I

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play this Dungeons and Dragons baseball,
and think about pictures in first year player

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drafts more so than hitters. Your
league format, league size, or the

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length of your your spec list and
things of that nature matter significantly more in

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my opinion. Would you agree with
that? I definitely agree with that.

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Like, this is even more than
in your hitter evaluations. You got to

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know your league format really well for
this. Yeah, to the point of,

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like, there are lots of leagues
where you should draft no pictures in

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FYPD, even the ones that are
at the very top of the list.

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To others where like if it's a
you know, points league where you've got

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a ton of minor spots, like
maybe you do want to bump up some

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of the some of the pictures in
your fypds. But yeah, even that

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I think changes the evaluation of the
kinds of pictures you might want to go

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after too, so very much.
It's a big what if you know what,

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if your league was this, then
maybe one arm is more interesting than

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another. Totally agree, And I'd
like to get a little bit more specific

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with some of that for me.
The first thing that you want to know

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about is what does your league define
as a prospect picture? And in my

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opinion, there are certain formats and
rules with that that kind of make pitching

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prospecting kind of pointless. Like if
you have to have your picture on the

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roster on your major league roster when
they're called up, like forget about it.

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I think that just totally sort of
ruins the demographic. And even more

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so, I know a lot of
leagues probably use the fifty inning pitched rule.

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I want to bump that up.
I mean, how many guys are

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would you say, like fully major
leaguers after fifty innings pitched. There's a

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lot of up and down in the
beginning process for pitchers. So no,

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so true. That is so true, And I think is a big part

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of why I end up fading a
lot even of upper miners arms, because

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in a lot of my leagues,
I'm sort of in a competitive cycle where

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I want to win every year.
And if a guy loses miners eligibility and

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now I have to carry him on
my active roster and he's gonna have some

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growing pains, isn't going to get
a full shot might bounce between starting and

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relieving. That's not a guy even
in really deep leagues that I'm interested in,

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right, So, I find that
the league, like the one that

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we're in in the show that league, having a much longer leash for your

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minor league eligibility is really helpful,
especially for evaluating pitchers. You might be

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more interested in holding a guy for
a couple of years, because even on

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the top pitchers in baseball, a
lot of them took a few years to

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get there. And if that's kind
of a fringe guy after promotion to major

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league status, you know, maybe
you let go of them too early,

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or that's when their value is at
its lowest. On the flip side,

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that's also when you can pounce in
trades on those on those leagues too.

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I do blame just sort of standard
dynasty formats for some of this pitching speculation

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hate that's out there. Also,
I think it's very different if you can

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pick up prospects or that during the
season. I would dare say that in

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a lot of leagues, especially the
smaller types, if you can pick up

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prospects during the season, I think
that greatly reduces at least my motivation to

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roster a lot of pitching prospects.
I think you also need to pay attention

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to what the rest of the league
is doing, because even in formats like

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that, even though I may shy
away from from rostering a lot of pitching

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specs, if the rest of the
league is shying away from it, like

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I'm in one right now, I'm
kind of a hoarder. I'm hoarding the

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bigger name pitching prospects that I want
to explore a serious relationship with Matt that

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I feel comfortable getting into the long
haul with. And I think that's something

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you have to think about too when
you're looking at the profiles of what pitchers

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you're getting into. There's different types
that I would want to commit to,

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and very much high brown names like
we've talked about a little bit that I

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don't want to commit to seriously,
I might play some of the game within

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the game with those arms, and
maybe we'll talk about one tonight. I

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think you're the league size, like, but if you can pick up prospects

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in say a thirty teamer, I
think that does change a little bit though,

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because of how massive that league size
is. I mean, I found

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in playing a thirty teamers just kind
of completely not doing it. That didn't

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help me. I found myself very
short with pitching options after a year or

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two, and trading for them can
be very expensive, especially in points leagues.

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If you're trying to get somebody who's
a present day contributor in a thirty

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teen points league as a pitcher,
expect to pay quite a lot for that.

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And prospects that can be had cheaply
a year maybe a year and a

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half later, if they're now performing
in our stalwart in the rotation, you're

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going to have to give up way
more than you would expect given say just

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your basic prospect dynasty rankings. And
then if you're in I am not in

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one of these, but I'd very
much like to be. But if you're

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in a large league where you cannot
pick up prospects during the season, I

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feel like then you really need to
invest in some I would be very check

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about which ones I select in those
types of leagues, but I think there

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you have to. That's interesting.
Why why do you say that? What's

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what changes about the format there that
makes you place a bigger premium on getting

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a pitcher in the draft, And
say a thirty teamer where you can't pick

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up prospects in season, where else
are they going to come from. They'll

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come from trades, right, that's
always an option. They'll come from waivers.

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Now, like you know, say, who would who would be a

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good example. Let's say maybe Cole
Reagan's wasn't rostered last year, and you're

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in this theoretical thirty I imagine,
Well, I guess maybe maybe that's not

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the greatest example. Maybe Andrew Abbott
would be a better example. Sawyer gives

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him long as a real example,
like he was not rostered late into the

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season in my thirty teamer and one
of my thirty teamers, and I picked

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him up. But to your point, like in my experience in smaller leagues

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like that, there's somebody who's holding
a large amount of their fab just for

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those situations. Mmm mm hm.
So I think it's gonna be very,

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very tough, and there's still a
lot of volatility with those those types of

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any young arm coming into the league. So I think I think a league

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like that is just more like Major
League Baseball, where you've got to try

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to invest, you've got to try
to grow your own I think to stay

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pace with the leaders of the league. I don't know, do you think

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I'm off base there? I don't
think you're off base. I was trying

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to think about it in terms of
the couple of leagues that I'm in where

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you can't pick up prospects during the
league or during this season, and that

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way, sorry, go ahead,
Well, just in those leagues where the

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only way you can acquire them is
either in the draft, which is pretty

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limited in the couple of leagues that
I'm in in terms of the number of

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rounds and the number of minor spots, or when they debut then it's a

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waiver game where you can drop a
bunch of fab on them in waivers.

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And in this sixteen teamer that has
those rules, so not even that deep

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of a league it was, and
it's a points league, so it really

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does favor pitching. And that's the
league where I really pushed up some of

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the performing arms last offseason and drafted
Fot and Gavin Stone with like my second

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and third round picks in that league. And I would say it didn't really

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pan out for me yet, but
I wonder if it will in a year

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or two. Whereas I don't know, it's just again neither of them was

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very good in their initial call up, and so maybe the price was down

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and maybe I could have traded for
them. It's hard to say, but

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I just mean I did place a
bigger premium on some arms in that league,

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partly because it was going to be
harder to acquire pitching. I thought,

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Yeah, I just know that in
thirty teamers, kind of no matter

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what the format, you never have
enough arms, and you can always get

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something at the trade table if you
think you have an extra one. Now,

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maybe somewhat conversely, in a smaller
league where you can not pick up

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prospects, I would almost maybe never
draft a pitcher, or just stick to

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the very high brow sort of guys
like a Skeins or something like that.

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You know, I currently roster three
pitchers in my sixteen teamer that you cannot

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pick up prospects in season in my
thirty teams, Yeah, and one was

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inherited and he's just still there now
in my thirty teen points where you can

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pick up prospects. And this might
play into more of the nature of the

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league and league mates and sort of
the way that I have tried to gobble

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up all of the breakout pictures early, I'm like rostering probably fifty to fifty

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arms to bats, and to be
honest, I would almost like to up

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that a little bit. That might
be a little bit extreme, But I

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also question, like, is it
really that much more worthwhile to hoard more

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bats than arms? Like, again, it just depends on your league and

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one of the components of that.
It's not just the format, it's also

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your other owners. Are they interested
in trading? What are their preferences?

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You know, I just made a
trade in one of my leagues where I

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had a couple of owners really after
Ben Brown, who is someone that you

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and I had both talked about that
we were kind of down on. Maybe

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the Cubs actually think he's a reliever. He had some commands issues last year,

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some injury issues, and then when
he came back after injury, was

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only pitching one or two innings in
relief. So I was kind of down

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on him. But because he still
was on a couple of top prospect lists,

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these guys were like, no,
this is the key piece in this

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trade. And I'm like, really, like, I have a bunch of

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other arms that I think are more
interesting than Ben Brown, But man,

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if that's the sticking point, like
yeah, I'll trade you Ben Brown,

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no problem, and so like that
sort of it really depends on are is

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there a market for that? Like
can you find willing trade partners? Because

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there are other people in that league
who have no interested in minor league arms.

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They're only interested in high upside DSL
or complex league level bats that might

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turn into the next Acuna or Tatise
or somebody with the superstar ceiling, and

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they don't care at all about the
boring back of the rotation types that I

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think I end up being drawn more
too. So that's another piece that plays

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into it, is like knowing what's
the propensity of your league for trading for

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that kind of picture? To me
too, there's also a real life sort

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of musical chairs component to it,
like what's more numerous, what's more abundant

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hitters who get real opportunities at an
everyday role or pictures with a real opportunity

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to get into a rotation and stick
if they do well. What year was

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this, twenty twenty one? I
think it was twenty twenty did a little

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little research where we compared MLB draft
histories and NFBC draft histories, and one

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of the bigger takeaways to me was
that there wasn't a huge difference between college

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arms and college bats as far as
reaching, at least one time peaking to

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certain NFBC ADP heights. The difference
was pretty nominal once you got passed.

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I don't know what was it fifty
picks or so or halfway through the first

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round or whatever it was. And
now, granted, none of that says

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anything about sustainability, right we see, just generally speaking, on a macro

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level, like hitters probably sustain their
jobs or their value there more so than

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hitters, or more so than pitchers, right, I think we see a

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lot of pitchers who can have one
bang or season and then kind of kind

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of drift off more so than hitters, do you think so? Or even

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college arms that there ended up,
you know, being in the system for

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a little while and then converted to
relief two and then they're right a reliever,

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even one that sticks around in a
cruise war. But you think about

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a guy like Andrew Miller or somebody
like that, who was highly touted arm

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coming out of the draft, great
college career, couldn't really start in pro

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ball. They gave him a shot
game, a shot but then he hung

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around for like fifteen years as a
reliever. So I think that happens a

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bit more than with high schoolers,
who I think it's more likely that it's

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stuff regression or injury and bust and
then never make it. Just looking at

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one of the charts from that research, and it goes from draft pick number

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one to one hundred, and the
sort of curve and the decline of just

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the probability of making the MLB with
college bats and college hitters is pretty much

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the same, and with prep bats
and prep hitters is pretty much the same.

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But now mind you that this is
from MLB drafts, what two thousand

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and one to twenty fifteen, and
I do think I do tend to believe

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that things are a little bit different
now. When you're talking about like prep

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pitchers at that time, it would
take almost five years until they made the

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BIGS, whereas college pitchers were at
like three. I think we could probably

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speed that up a little bit now, though. Do you think some teams

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definitely are I still think there's that
kind of standard progression that you see the

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teams use. It'd be interesting too
to look at it on the international side,

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because that's where I wonder if that
it's even more pronounced, just as

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they have to make the Major League, so the forty man within six years.

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Otherwise it's there are free for all, and so I think their bus

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rate might be higher because some of
those guys get rushed. I've seen that

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theory bandied about before. But I
do think some teams are pushing some of

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their high schoolers faster. I mean
even at the top of the draft with

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Baltimore and Holiday just last year like
that, they've pushed him so fast he's

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in Triple A already and it's going
to be in the major leagues next year.

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So I think there is a little
bit more of if a guy's ready,

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we're just going to keep pushing him. Atlanta has done this with pitchers

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too, and they are like,
you were drafted last year, Well,

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we're going to keep pushing you up
and see where you make it, Like

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Waldrop made it up to Triple A
this year. Looking at some of this

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stuff now, great, So this
is very loose science. I wouldn't even

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use science divining rad type of just
rough guestimate idea with a lot of imperfections

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in the process. But during that
time MLB picks twenty one through fifty just

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kind of across the board. College
hitters, prep hitters, college pitchers,

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prep pitchers all pretty much had the
same sort of results as far as peak

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NFBC ADP. So I do think
that you get to a point in the

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MLB draft, however, you want
to look at that the talent in the

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draft where it becomes just pretty much
even across the four demographics as far as

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fantasy potentials or as far as sort
of a macro sort of sense of odds.

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But now I will say there were
some demographics that I found doing this

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stuff that were kind of interesting,
Like you're sort of smaller named college infielders

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were pretty much just as if not
a little bit more successful than like your

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mid first round prep arms of that
time period. Your college arms that were

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MLB picks twenty one through fifty may
have been in sort of vanilla, if

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you will. As far as fantasy
success, we're equally good shots as hitters

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in that range. And you know
from this sample, a prep pitcher drafted

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twenty one through fifty in the MLB
draft had twice reached top twenty five fantasy

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heights out of one hundred and fifty
six. I don't think it's any secret

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that folks think that drafting prep pitchers
can be very fruitless. But Matt,

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I dare say, and folks like
Jeff Ponce and Trevor Hooth at the time

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that I did this, we're kind
of trying to tell me that they thought

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things were different now with prep arms, and I tend to agree with them.

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I am much more likely today to
take a shot on a prep arm

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than I was then, especially this
draft class. I don't know if you

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took a look, but I shared
a little list I got. As of

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right now, I've got about ten
arms that I would think about seriously sort

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of committing to and getting into a
long haul commitment with, and four of

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those were prep arms. I don't
think a list like that has ever looked

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like that to me, has been
split that evenly. Are you more likely?

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Are you with me? Or not
so much at all. I'm generally

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speaking just out out on the ideas
of drafting a pitcher in FYPD, and

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I say that mostly from the context
of the leagues that I play in,

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and so my deepest league, this
thirty teamer, where we have something like

250
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fourteen hundred prospects rostered or something.
I was just looking through my pitching staff

251
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minor league pitching staff. It's Julian
Agiar, Matt Canterino, David Festa,

252
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Jacob Lopez, Cole Phillips, Lion
Richardson, Ywander Suarez, Reedban Scooter,

253
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Brandon Walter, Ricardo, Jan Christian
Scott. I acquired Canterino, Festa,

254
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Phillips, Richardson, and I think
those are the only ones via trade.

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All the others were available at some
point on the waiver wire in that league.

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And again, some of this is
like timing when you pick people up

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and when you're in and so b
siding has helped with some of this,

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like I picked up Suarez, Van, Scooter, and Scott all pretty early

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on in the year after I was
starting to look at like who's kind of

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rocketing up with a great K minus
BB or who has an interesting line in

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sort of a small sample, and
having a few roster spots to be able

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to do that, I was able
to pick those guys up. Agiar,

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I think was on your recommendation last
year. Those guys are all I think

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pretty valuable or going to be really
valuable. I drafted none of them.

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So I think that that's my general
philosophy is that even in really deep leagues,

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you're going to be able to find
valuable pitchers in your waiver wire,

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and it's a lot harder, and
that they pop up so much faster than

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hitters. We talked about this a
while ago, that it is really hard

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to fake being a good hitter.
It's pretty easy to see through a high

270
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babb a crazy out out of this
world homer to flyball ratio, or like,

271
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oh, you're having a ton of
success, but you don't walk and

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you're striking out a lot, Like
is that power really going to carry you

273
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through those things? The things that
make really really good hitters are very difficult

274
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to fake and for the most part, relatively easy to see. So your

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good hitters are easier to evaluate.
Like we've said this on B siding before,

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that it's getting harder to find under
the radar hitters because general fantasy community

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is getting better at saying who is
a good hitter and what's valuable, and

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so are the I think public prospecting
lists, especially the folks doing it on

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the fantasy side. You know,
they think about Jeff Ponce and Dylan White,

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like the stuff that they've done in
BA about taking Jeff's experience in the

281
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scouting world and all the depth knowledge
that BA has there and applying Dylan's scout

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the stat line type of formulation.
I think they're doing a really good job

283
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of identifying some of the under the
radar prospects really fast, and then they

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aren't under the redar anymore. On
the pitching side, though, one offseason

285
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at tread or at drive line,
one pitch tweak from a smart organization,

286
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a change in pitch usage, like
it happened so fast, and then Christian

287
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Scott pops out of nowhere and was
like second in the minor leagues and K

288
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minus BB rate last year, and
like he wasn't anybody like that, was

289
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not on any fantasy lists. He
wasn't on an FYPD top one fifty when

290
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his draft year happened. So for
me, like Christian Scott's one of my

291
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favorite arms in the miners, I
think he's going to be a really good

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major leaguer, top fifteen maybe arm
in all of the minor leagues for me,

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And he was free in this deep, pretty competitive league. So all

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that to say that in general for
fypds, I'm shying away from pitchers,

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and especially prep pitchers because the opportunity
cost is so high, I think.

296
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So we definitely have done a lot
of work and looked at a bunch of

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these guys, so we do have
some recommendations. But for me, like,

298
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it's unlikely I'm taking any of these
guys in any of my draft.

299
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That's fair enough. So we'll just
understand that you're a chicken and I am

300
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not. M Okay. It also
has to do with it pitchers are terrible,

301
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and you know, hitters are the
real athletes here, so well,

302
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you know, I dare say or
chew on this. I don't think.

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Maybe I'm just fooling myself, but
you know, people will talk about investing

304
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in pitching prospect as being very volatile
and all that. I feel like if

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you really watch a pitcher, I
feel like a lot of that risk is

306
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mitigated if you really if you sit
down and you watch all of Hidden Dana's

307
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you know, tublevised starts. Now, granted, who's got time to watch

308
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all of these guys, right,
that's the hard part. But I feel

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pretty dang safe with some of my
pitching investments because I know exactly what I'm

310
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getting into I might not have all
the data and all that stuff, but

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I know what kind of picture I'm
talking about here. I think there's a

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lot of I don't want to say, maybe lies or untold parts of the

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picture when you look at spreadsheets of
pictures, whereas I think spreadsheets for hitters

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tell a lot more truth than they
do compare to pictures. Do you think

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that's fair to say? I think
it is because some of the things that

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are publicly available for hitters still remain
really strong markers of success, right,

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00:23:30.839 --> 00:23:34.039
Like even if you don't have their
ninetieth percentile exit VLO, you still can

318
00:23:34.039 --> 00:23:38.440
get a pretty good sense for how
much power is there, and a couple

319
00:23:38.480 --> 00:23:45.039
of views of their swing you can
see a lot about how are they spraying

320
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the ball right? The things with
pictures. I struggle with this because I

321
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think, on the one hand,
it's still so valuable to know their strikeout

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percentage and their walk percentage, and
that that remains one of the very best

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00:23:57.960 --> 00:24:02.799
predictors at any level for how good
a pitcher is this going to be.

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00:24:03.119 --> 00:24:06.920
You can learn a lot more if
you watch them and see how are they

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00:24:06.960 --> 00:24:10.440
getting that, Like what's the pitch
shapes, what's their go to pitches,

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Like you can learn a lot still
by watching them, But I still wonder

327
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if we're missing some things when we're
relying on stuff like how hard are they

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00:24:18.799 --> 00:24:22.880
throwing or what's their spin rate,
or like it's almost like, because we're

329
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getting some more specific numbers, we're
over prescribing how good we think they are.

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And I don't know if that's necessarily
the right takeaway. And I still

331
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think you can find a lot of
guys who are just stat sheet darlings as

332
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pitchers, and then you watch them
and you're like, oh, I'm underwhelmed

333
00:24:42.079 --> 00:24:47.799
because the fastball's ninety and the changeup
looks okay, he's not getting like crazy

334
00:24:47.839 --> 00:24:51.759
whiffs, like pitching ninja style swords, right, But that guy still might

335
00:24:51.880 --> 00:24:56.599
be really good because we don't have
all of the information that teams do,

336
00:24:56.759 --> 00:25:00.599
or we don't have all of that
underlying data that tells us that actually that

337
00:25:00.759 --> 00:25:04.440
release point is unique, the approach
angle is unique. Is actually getting outlier

338
00:25:04.480 --> 00:25:10.759
extension on top of good spin and
those things. I think I've described it

339
00:25:10.799 --> 00:25:14.279
before with a guy like Reed Van
Scooter, who I think just put up

340
00:25:14.279 --> 00:25:18.599
one of the best lines in full
season baseball and still remains not ranked by

341
00:25:18.640 --> 00:25:22.559
a lot of people, and when
he is ranked, it's ranked really low.

342
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But I think that what he showed
us with nine point eight six k's

343
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per nine and two point five walks
per nine and a fifty seven percent ground

344
00:25:30.039 --> 00:25:34.880
ball rate at a great hitters park, we're missing something about his arsenal that

345
00:25:36.039 --> 00:25:40.200
we're he's telling us with the results, you know what I mean, like

346
00:25:40.720 --> 00:25:44.640
that k rate, that walk rate, that ground ball rate. Though even

347
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though we look at the stuff models
that I've seen referenced about him that they're

348
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like, oh, it's underwhelming,
it's not that good. This is a

349
00:25:52.480 --> 00:25:56.359
back end kind of guy. I
think we're missing something still about that,

350
00:25:56.680 --> 00:26:00.599
and we should buy into some of
those statistics a little bit more. Yeah,

351
00:26:00.720 --> 00:26:03.759
fair enough, I know. I
mean I've I've said this before,

352
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maybe not quite in this way.
For me, I value actually watching pictures

353
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in games full season ball. And
for me, it's like, if I

354
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don't feel like you're using your stuff, well I'm not. I'm not interested

355
00:26:18.400 --> 00:26:22.880
in in an investment sort of way. Maybe I'll play some game within the

356
00:26:22.920 --> 00:26:26.599
game with that with that picture,
but you need to show me that you

357
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are using your stuff. Well that's
why I've always kind of been a stand

358
00:26:30.319 --> 00:26:34.680
offish with Kyle Harrison. Amazing stuff, right, great angle, all of

359
00:26:34.720 --> 00:26:37.559
these things. And I now,
don't get me wrong, I think he

360
00:26:37.720 --> 00:26:42.000
has made improvements, but like early
on in the in the Lowers, it

361
00:26:42.119 --> 00:26:48.039
was just throwing throwing your your good
stuff up there loosely around the plate and

362
00:26:48.079 --> 00:26:52.400
getting results. And like, yes, there is dynasty value on that guy,

363
00:26:52.440 --> 00:26:56.240
and yes he could turn into something
large, you know, something very

364
00:26:56.319 --> 00:27:00.680
useful, very valuable, but that's
just not the kind of guy that I'm

365
00:27:00.720 --> 00:27:06.119
gonna have a dynasty commitment with.
And I'm okay with that, at least

366
00:27:06.240 --> 00:27:11.599
as of right now. I think
my sort of process with all of that

367
00:27:11.039 --> 00:27:15.759
is going well, and I have
very much upped my investment in pitching prospects

368
00:27:15.799 --> 00:27:19.480
over the last couple of years.
And to be honest, it's the only

369
00:27:19.559 --> 00:27:25.000
reason I have a decent team in
a few leaks, because I have become

370
00:27:25.079 --> 00:27:29.160
relevant on the trade table with a
lot of those Just one thing quickly,

371
00:27:29.200 --> 00:27:33.519
with that study from a few years
ago, just because we're a few years

372
00:27:33.559 --> 00:27:37.039
into the future, a little part
there was just discussing investing in a prep

373
00:27:37.160 --> 00:27:41.000
arm, a first round prep arm, you know, taking the at this

374
00:27:41.160 --> 00:27:45.799
time this draft, it was a
Nick Bitsko. What is Nick Bitsko up

375
00:27:45.799 --> 00:27:48.759
to these days? Anyways? I
don't even know, but he was a

376
00:27:48.839 --> 00:27:52.759
popular either. He was a popular
prep arm at the time, right,

377
00:27:52.799 --> 00:27:55.440
So it's just kind of postulating,
Hey, what's a better bet? Do

378
00:27:55.480 --> 00:28:00.640
you take a Bitsco or a couple
of deeper college arms? This example,

379
00:28:00.920 --> 00:28:03.640
I used the what was he the
sixty sixth pick in the draft and the

380
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one hundred and twenty second pick in
the draft. So who would you rather

381
00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:11.559
have? Matt? The idea was
take a first round pick, use a

382
00:28:11.599 --> 00:28:15.119
first round pick on Bitsco, or
use two picks at the end of your

383
00:28:15.160 --> 00:28:18.160
draft on these two guys. Right, So what would you rather have right

384
00:28:18.200 --> 00:28:22.039
now? Would you rather have Nick
Bitsko or Clayton Beeter and Ian Biddell?

385
00:28:22.359 --> 00:28:26.359
Definitely Beeter and Banel, Right,
And you know, I'm sure there's examples

386
00:28:26.359 --> 00:28:30.359
from that draft class that wouldn't look
so great as well. But I still

387
00:28:30.400 --> 00:28:34.160
do maintain you wrote this like two
three years ago, right, Like that's

388
00:28:34.200 --> 00:28:41.279
pretty pretty good. Yea great examples, But and I do think that there

389
00:28:41.480 --> 00:28:44.960
is if you can, if you
can afford it, if you can make

390
00:28:45.000 --> 00:28:49.559
it work. An insect type approach
to pitching prospecting that I think can work

391
00:28:49.799 --> 00:28:55.240
really well. And this is a
small microcosm of how that, how that

392
00:28:55.319 --> 00:28:59.559
might go. AnyWho, enough of
that, let's talk about some actual players.

393
00:28:59.559 --> 00:29:02.920
Should we tell? Talk about some
actual players? I guess I don't

394
00:29:02.960 --> 00:29:07.000
know if you saw I did add
another tab to that Google back sheet that

395
00:29:07.039 --> 00:29:11.279
I had shared last week, forty
arms I might draft in the right situation.

396
00:29:11.599 --> 00:29:17.519
Forty yeah, now, grants it. I don't know these names.

397
00:29:18.160 --> 00:29:21.759
I've got ten arms. Like I
had mentioned earlier, that I would,

398
00:29:22.039 --> 00:29:26.279
depending on the format, depending on
my situation, I would put some sort

399
00:29:26.359 --> 00:29:32.440
of value on use, some sort
of valuable asset to sign up for the

400
00:29:32.440 --> 00:29:37.359
long haul, just quickly. Paul
Sken's noble Mayor, Thomas White, Rhet

401
00:29:37.400 --> 00:29:41.160
Lauder, Hurston Waldrup, Alonzo Treadwell, Chase Dolander, which if you want

402
00:29:41.200 --> 00:29:45.119
to take him completely off of your
list because he's with the Rockies, I

403
00:29:45.200 --> 00:29:48.960
will not argue with you. Brandon
Sprout, Blake Walters, and Steven Echavaria

404
00:29:49.279 --> 00:29:53.079
at Travaria at Travaria, for whatever
that's worth. Now, I do not

405
00:29:53.160 --> 00:30:00.279
want to sit here and pretend like
I am some well scholared individual on all

406
00:30:00.319 --> 00:30:03.960
of these arms. I have ten
pieces out of a two hundred piece puzzle.

407
00:30:04.200 --> 00:30:07.519
I'm trying to put a picture together
here. I have spent a lot

408
00:30:07.519 --> 00:30:11.000
of time watching as much as I
can. I don't know if what I

409
00:30:11.000 --> 00:30:17.240
think we came up with Matt fifty
or there fifty six pitchers from the first

410
00:30:17.319 --> 00:30:22.559
year from this last draft class that
had televised outings in full season ball this

411
00:30:22.640 --> 00:30:26.319
season, I watched every single one
of those. Good for you, now,

412
00:30:26.359 --> 00:30:30.079
not two great lengths. Some guys
I turned on for one or two

413
00:30:30.160 --> 00:30:33.400
at bats, some I watched the
whole inning, some I watched the whole

414
00:30:33.440 --> 00:30:36.720
outing. But now, granted,
a lot of these guys put up like

415
00:30:36.880 --> 00:30:40.000
twelve innings on the season, so
there isn't a lot to watch anyways,

416
00:30:40.039 --> 00:30:44.440
but at least just to get an
idea, right, is there a Ricky

417
00:30:44.480 --> 00:30:48.559
Titaman out there from a JUCO that
got a little glimpse. Now I won't

418
00:30:48.559 --> 00:30:52.319
say that I found anything like that, but there are some names that I

419
00:30:52.359 --> 00:30:56.400
put on the back of this list
of forty arms that caught my attention during

420
00:30:56.440 --> 00:31:00.440
that video dive, and a couple
of them had already caught my attention.

421
00:31:00.559 --> 00:31:04.680
But they're my B side selections Matt
that I have not talked about yet.

422
00:31:04.720 --> 00:31:11.000
Did you watch any Logan Evans of
your Seattle Mariners? I did not.

423
00:31:11.440 --> 00:31:15.640
Well, he is my Seattle Mariners
B side selection for this year, so

424
00:31:15.720 --> 00:31:18.720
Logan Evans. I am not going
to be drafting Logan Evans, but if

425
00:31:18.720 --> 00:31:22.559
you're in a very deep league where
you feel like you have to invest in

426
00:31:22.599 --> 00:31:25.480
some arms, maybe an idea at
the very end. He was a twelfth

427
00:31:25.519 --> 00:31:30.240
round pick out of Pittsburgh. He
racks some killers spects, which I appreciate.

428
00:31:30.480 --> 00:31:33.759
He's a righty. He got in
three games, twelve innings right,

429
00:31:33.799 --> 00:31:37.119
so very little to see. But
what we did get to see I thought

430
00:31:37.200 --> 00:31:41.000
was pretty impressive. Matt got a
fastball that I think mid nineties, two

431
00:31:41.039 --> 00:31:45.319
different breaking balls. He mixes in
a change up a little bit. I

432
00:31:45.319 --> 00:31:48.559
don't know if I shared gifts of
these forearms I'm want to talk about in

433
00:31:48.599 --> 00:31:53.680
that sheet. But he gets my
guy Cole Fontinelli on what I believe was

434
00:31:53.720 --> 00:31:59.559
a fastball slider crew ball slider.
But the outings, I think there's two

435
00:31:59.599 --> 00:32:01.759
outings I think to watch with him, I just felt like looked like a

436
00:32:01.799 --> 00:32:06.799
decent arsenal and had some teeth on
it. And that was enough to be

437
00:32:06.920 --> 00:32:08.960
my mariner just watching that gift.
Now he's got some nice run on that

438
00:32:09.000 --> 00:32:12.960
two seamer, I know, right, yeah, you know he was pitching

439
00:32:12.960 --> 00:32:15.839
to both sides of the play.
I thought pretty well that outing And yeah,

440
00:32:15.839 --> 00:32:17.720
I don't know, like you just
talked about the list of arms that

441
00:32:17.759 --> 00:32:22.680
you got for free that turned into
guys cel Evans looks at the beginning next

442
00:32:22.759 --> 00:32:25.160
year, you never know. Let's
get into Kaid Morris here. Kid Morris

443
00:32:25.240 --> 00:32:30.160
is on my list that basically right
after those ten arms. So if I'm

444
00:32:30.160 --> 00:32:34.400
in a deeper league, I might
take a shot on rostering Kaid Morris.

445
00:32:34.640 --> 00:32:38.519
He was what a third round pick
of the Mets this year out of Nevada

446
00:32:38.599 --> 00:32:42.599
at the time of the draft.
I don't know why or how it came

447
00:32:42.640 --> 00:32:45.039
to be, but his name came
up, and I started trying to bruise

448
00:32:45.119 --> 00:32:49.200
YouTube and all that stuff and watch
a little bit of Cad Morris. But

449
00:32:49.519 --> 00:32:53.000
when we talk about like he might
just have a lot of qualities that I

450
00:32:53.240 --> 00:32:58.599
look for in pictures, right,
I think he's got a decent to potentially

451
00:32:59.000 --> 00:33:04.359
above average arsenal as a whole sinker
that he throws at ninety three A slider

452
00:33:04.640 --> 00:33:09.279
eighty two four Steamer ninety two,
a change up and a curveball command might

453
00:33:09.319 --> 00:33:14.160
not be like, you know,
I don't think we're talking towards Kirby here,

454
00:33:14.200 --> 00:33:17.799
but I think there is some potential
because he's he's like athletic and even

455
00:33:17.839 --> 00:33:22.640
though he's a bit funky, I
think somewhat fluid in his funkiness, if

456
00:33:22.640 --> 00:33:25.839
that makes any sense. I like
the landing spot with the Mets. I

457
00:33:25.839 --> 00:33:30.920
think the Mets, especially on the
sort of command execution end of things,

458
00:33:30.400 --> 00:33:35.079
has had some success with some guys. And I very much liked his what

459
00:33:35.480 --> 00:33:39.000
we got one look. I think
in pro ball not the greatest angle at

460
00:33:39.039 --> 00:33:43.640
Saint Lucy, but I dig,
you know, there's it's funny when you

461
00:33:43.680 --> 00:33:47.960
start to dig around on different systems
arms, you'll start to see like different

462
00:33:49.200 --> 00:33:52.680
profiles and types where you're like,
oh, yeah, they're trying to get

463
00:33:52.720 --> 00:33:58.160
like a photocopy of a photocopy of
a photocopy of some cy young guy they

464
00:33:58.200 --> 00:34:00.039
had a few years ago or something
like that. Right. I feel like

465
00:34:00.079 --> 00:34:04.759
the White Sox were always looking for
like Chris Sale number two and stuff like

466
00:34:04.799 --> 00:34:08.480
that. And I think there are
some characteristics Morris that are are a bit

467
00:34:08.639 --> 00:34:13.440
like the Grom not in like necessarily
the way that he looks on the mound,

468
00:34:13.480 --> 00:34:17.719
but just kind of the profile of
offerings and the athleticism sort of letticism,

469
00:34:17.840 --> 00:34:21.719
the size that he might have.
I watched Kid Morris too, and

470
00:34:22.440 --> 00:34:28.199
even found some of his highlight videos
from college at Nevada, and I did

471
00:34:28.280 --> 00:34:31.039
like what I saw. He didn't
have a great year in his draft year,

472
00:34:31.159 --> 00:34:35.239
and the Mets still popped him in
the third right, right, that's

473
00:34:35.559 --> 00:34:40.400
interesting, you know, mid major
college, kind of underwhelming draft year,

474
00:34:40.840 --> 00:34:45.000
but still some things to like.
You know, almost ten k's per nine

475
00:34:45.400 --> 00:34:52.760
walks were okay, And I think
that this Arsenal might play up for ground

476
00:34:52.760 --> 00:34:58.320
balls. I think they looking at
the kind of sinker curveball. Both of

477
00:34:58.360 --> 00:35:02.719
them seemed like they got a decent
number of grounders, and that maybe he

478
00:35:02.760 --> 00:35:09.039
could play that up as he kind
of ownes his craft as he gets up

479
00:35:09.079 --> 00:35:13.599
in the levels. But he was
one that I was actually I watched a

480
00:35:13.599 --> 00:35:15.039
little bit of him, was like, Okay, this might be interesting.

481
00:35:15.280 --> 00:35:19.000
He's become a little bit of a
cheese ball to me, Like if we're

482
00:35:19.000 --> 00:35:22.280
talking about not spending high draft capital
and plucking a few college arms at the

483
00:35:22.400 --> 00:35:25.360
end. Cad Morris is kind of
on the top of my list there for

484
00:35:25.400 --> 00:35:30.800
that sort of demographic and he's only
I mean, he's rostered in what not

485
00:35:30.920 --> 00:35:37.000
a lot of percentage so low.
Yeah, and you know you're still a

486
00:35:37.079 --> 00:35:39.559
third round pick. Is not a
nothing? Would they pay him like six

487
00:35:39.639 --> 00:35:44.920
hundred K, which isn't the most. Is probably a bit of a money

488
00:35:45.000 --> 00:35:47.199
saver in the third round, But
yeah, kid Morris, I'm kind of

489
00:35:47.239 --> 00:35:52.199
into it as a cheap spec arm
that I would draft in, you know,

490
00:35:52.280 --> 00:35:55.039
our thirty teen points league if we
get to the end and there's nothing

491
00:35:55.039 --> 00:36:00.760
that I'm super into. Another first
year player that's my official best selection is

492
00:36:00.840 --> 00:36:04.840
Jaden Ham with the Tigers. I
don't know if you've watched any Ham.

493
00:36:05.400 --> 00:36:07.880
It happened so Ham. The Tigers
popped him in the fifth round. He's

494
00:36:07.920 --> 00:36:13.360
out of middle Tennessee State paid him
about four hundred k. Excuse me,

495
00:36:13.639 --> 00:36:17.159
Kate Morris was six hundred and sixty
seven thousand. It's a bit more than

496
00:36:17.199 --> 00:36:22.920
I had said. But with Ham, he's got the sort of IVB fastball

497
00:36:22.960 --> 00:36:25.480
that plays up in the zone really
well, and he's got a breaking ball

498
00:36:25.960 --> 00:36:29.960
to play that north south game.
I don't know, if you're watching the

499
00:36:30.039 --> 00:36:32.719
video of that at all, there's
a slider and I think he does tossing

500
00:36:32.800 --> 00:36:37.239
a change up from time to time, but I'm not really banking on that

501
00:36:37.320 --> 00:36:39.280
being a big part of his game. But we got a nice look at

502
00:36:39.360 --> 00:36:42.840
him in Bradenton, and yeah,
I don't know, I just kind of

503
00:36:42.840 --> 00:36:45.639
want to thank the Lord for Bradenton. I know, right, we did

504
00:36:45.639 --> 00:36:51.079
get a little stack cast stuff there, pretty small sample here, this ninety

505
00:36:51.119 --> 00:36:54.960
six pitches, but he threw the
four seamer fifty seven times average v LO

506
00:36:55.239 --> 00:37:02.719
ninety three point three through the curveball
times you lo eighty. Yes, change

507
00:37:02.800 --> 00:37:07.840
up was his third most used pitch. I mean in this short sample that

508
00:37:07.039 --> 00:37:13.159
he got plenty of called strikes and
whiffs. But yeah, another college arm

509
00:37:13.760 --> 00:37:17.079
that I would that I'd feel pretty
comfortable with sticking in the back of my

510
00:37:17.199 --> 00:37:21.440
draft and trying to play that game. And then the last b side that

511
00:37:21.519 --> 00:37:23.840
we didn't cover. You got to
save a Taiwanese arm for the end,

512
00:37:23.920 --> 00:37:28.639
right, Matt, Yeah, we
do help me with the name. Do

513
00:37:28.639 --> 00:37:32.280
you know how to You've talked so
many Taiwanese pitchers, Chen Way Lean,

514
00:37:32.559 --> 00:37:37.400
Lynn shen Way Linn that right,
yep, Cardinals signed him in like July,

515
00:37:38.199 --> 00:37:40.239
maybe even later. Yeah, I
think it was July. So he's

516
00:37:40.280 --> 00:37:45.840
eligible in this year's first year player
drafts. He's I think he's twenty two

517
00:37:45.960 --> 00:37:50.400
years old now. He got in
four A ball outings. I believe it

518
00:37:50.519 --> 00:37:54.320
was pitched the like twelve innings.
Nothing too crazy. We want to get

519
00:37:54.360 --> 00:37:59.760
into the numbers. Except if you
like velocity, Lynn's going to help you

520
00:37:59.760 --> 00:38:04.920
out here. His forcing fastball averaged
ninety six miles per hour. His sinker

521
00:38:04.960 --> 00:38:08.159
that he threw much more often average
ninety four. And then there's a slider

522
00:38:08.639 --> 00:38:13.679
was his most used change secondary and
then there was a change up as well.

523
00:38:13.960 --> 00:38:16.719
And he's big too, so he's
big, long arms, long legs,

524
00:38:17.079 --> 00:38:22.440
he's tall. He's tall, he's
six seven, he's lanky. I

525
00:38:22.480 --> 00:38:27.400
think he's far from polished. But
if you want to take a little bit

526
00:38:27.519 --> 00:38:31.519
of high upside, perhaps a little
bit of a project sort of thing,

527
00:38:31.599 --> 00:38:37.000
in a deep league where you can't
pick up prospects in season, I think

528
00:38:37.000 --> 00:38:40.960
we could do worse than Lynn here. I know I played in a thirty

529
00:38:42.000 --> 00:38:47.239
team league that had extremely large drafts. You couldn't pick up prospects in season.

530
00:38:47.400 --> 00:38:52.199
So a league like that I felt
like I definitely had to take stabs

531
00:38:52.639 --> 00:38:54.920
at pitchers like this because you weren't
going to be able to get him on

532
00:38:54.960 --> 00:39:00.480
waivers, and chances were somebody had
them rostered already. Yeah, so those

533
00:39:00.480 --> 00:39:04.239
four arms round out are B side
selections for the year, Matt, I

534
00:39:04.280 --> 00:39:08.239
don't know. Nice. Can we
cheers a beer for fully rounding out our

535
00:39:08.519 --> 00:39:14.719
B sides? Let's cheers a beer. Let me get one though. One

536
00:39:14.760 --> 00:39:19.800
thing that's interesting about Lynn as well
is that he's a very Uncardinals like prospect.

537
00:39:20.000 --> 00:39:23.039
A lot of stuff, poor command
so far. I think that's so

538
00:39:23.079 --> 00:39:27.599
interesting. I wonder if that's like
a different philosophy for them, that they're

539
00:39:27.800 --> 00:39:30.039
trying to go for a little more
upside than they have in the past.

540
00:39:30.079 --> 00:39:35.280
I mean, I think that maybe
they're learning that only going for guys with

541
00:39:35.400 --> 00:39:40.320
number four starter upside probably not the
sole winning strategy. Yeah, no,

542
00:39:40.360 --> 00:39:43.760
I agree, And it used to
be a part of that changing direction.

543
00:39:44.039 --> 00:39:51.840
Yeah. Yeah, definitely doesn't feel
like a Cardinals pitching prospect for the most

544
00:39:51.880 --> 00:39:57.760
part, have no qualms with your
the top of the board. Like if

545
00:39:57.760 --> 00:40:01.960
you get down past pick I don't
know, eight or nine, maybe then

546
00:40:02.480 --> 00:40:07.360
maybe i'd take skiings then and I
look, I think Skimes just had an

547
00:40:07.400 --> 00:40:14.239
incredible college career. I'm still probably
shooting for either more present production from one

548
00:40:14.239 --> 00:40:20.039
of the Japanese imports or one of
the higher upside bats until maybe about pick

549
00:40:20.199 --> 00:40:22.639
eight or nine, where I'd pop
Skiins on the back of that like kind

550
00:40:22.639 --> 00:40:30.599
of eight player tier. Then Meyer, louder Waldrop White seemed like another nice

551
00:40:30.679 --> 00:40:35.880
chunk where if it's like in the
back part of like call it if it's

552
00:40:36.039 --> 00:40:40.119
if I had a pick in like
the twenties, maybe I would take one

553
00:40:40.159 --> 00:40:45.159
of them, like if they had
fallen there. That seems like a reasonable

554
00:40:45.239 --> 00:40:49.039
spot. And yeah, you know, Dollander was the number one pitching prospect

555
00:40:49.079 --> 00:40:52.559
coming into this last year and so
sure, bad landing spot in Colorado and

556
00:40:52.679 --> 00:40:55.960
not a great junior year, but
I still think there's a lot of talent

557
00:40:57.079 --> 00:41:01.280
there and it's worth following Ken Heaver
game in form. So I don't know

558
00:41:01.320 --> 00:41:07.159
the Walters are Etchivuria very well,
but the rest of them, that seems

559
00:41:07.199 --> 00:41:10.840
like a pretty solid grouping. Now
tread Well I watched a bit of and

560
00:41:10.920 --> 00:41:15.599
I think that that I probably wouldn't
include him in that tier, not that

561
00:41:15.679 --> 00:41:22.280
I don't think he's good I think
he's got some potential. The numbers were

562
00:41:22.880 --> 00:41:29.320
not overwhelming in college, and UCLA
is usually I would say pretty good at

563
00:41:29.360 --> 00:41:32.880
producing decent pitching or getting quite a
bit out of their pitchers, and so

564
00:41:34.199 --> 00:41:37.320
I think what we saw from him
was probably like, that's about what he

565
00:41:37.440 --> 00:41:40.039
has at this point. Now.
Can Houston coax a little more out of

566
00:41:40.119 --> 00:41:45.159
him? Maybe, but that's He
was one that I watched and I think

567
00:41:45.239 --> 00:41:47.719
wanted to like a little bit more
than I did, so I probably wouldn't

568
00:41:47.719 --> 00:41:51.559
put him in that kind of top
grouping. I'd put him down more in

569
00:41:51.760 --> 00:41:55.119
the bigger bubble of like pick your
poison kind of names. He I liked

570
00:41:55.199 --> 00:42:00.280
him, didn't love him fair enough. I was kind of a well cheeseball

571
00:42:00.360 --> 00:42:05.760
before the draft, and then when
the Astros took him, I was,

572
00:42:06.119 --> 00:42:10.199
let's go but all and some got
like almost a million and a half,

573
00:42:10.280 --> 00:42:14.920
Like he's he's a prospect. He's
like a real real prospect. He's already

574
00:42:14.920 --> 00:42:17.880
had Timmy John, which might be
nice. These ten guys here. I'm

575
00:42:17.880 --> 00:42:24.840
not gonna get super serious unless I
feel really good about the combination of Arsenal

576
00:42:24.960 --> 00:42:30.679
and Execution and our guy Hurston Waldrop. I do have in here, but

577
00:42:30.519 --> 00:42:36.400
I don't feel that great about that. He's the thirteen percent walk rate guy

578
00:42:36.800 --> 00:42:42.000
yep in college too, and in
pro ball even after they scrapped the kerkball

579
00:42:42.079 --> 00:42:45.639
that he had no feeling for.
Like I made this point in the Dynasty

580
00:42:45.719 --> 00:42:47.599
dugout discord the end of the day, and I kind of stand by it,

581
00:42:47.679 --> 00:42:53.320
Like guys that have those kind of
command concerns rarely work them out.

582
00:42:53.440 --> 00:42:58.639
The ones that do are the ones
that have thirty percent to forty percent K

583
00:42:58.840 --> 00:43:01.119
rates to go along with it.
Walter could be that kind of guy,

584
00:43:01.480 --> 00:43:07.719
and the Braves have had a recent
history of coaxing a little bit of extra

585
00:43:07.880 --> 00:43:12.880
out of some of their college arms. But I also think we might be

586
00:43:12.920 --> 00:43:16.199
ascribing a bit too much credit because
of Spencer Strider, because you look at

587
00:43:16.239 --> 00:43:21.199
some of the other arms that the
Braves have had, like that maybe have

588
00:43:21.320 --> 00:43:24.440
performed a little well, a little
better in the minors, but haven't really

589
00:43:24.519 --> 00:43:30.000
panned out, like Dylan Dodg,
Jared Schuster, even Joey Estes like who

590
00:43:30.079 --> 00:43:32.920
you know, I know you love
and expect more of, but like it

591
00:43:34.039 --> 00:43:38.400
still hasn't all clicked together in a
successful way as a fantasy relevant picture.

592
00:43:38.519 --> 00:43:44.159
Just yet how much of this sort
of Atlanta is good at unlocking pitching are

593
00:43:44.199 --> 00:43:47.360
we saying is actually because Spencer Strider
is a unicorn and they got a bit

594
00:43:47.519 --> 00:43:51.880
lucky on it, And how much
of it is like this is an organizational

595
00:43:51.920 --> 00:43:54.320
thing that they are getting more out
of some of these pictures. I think

596
00:43:54.360 --> 00:44:00.360
what seems to be happening more is
they're drafting pictures, developing them okay,

597
00:44:00.760 --> 00:44:06.800
and having them pitch in picture sparks
that maybe they know play even better for

598
00:44:06.920 --> 00:44:10.119
pictures than others do, and then
trading them away. Because it seems to

599
00:44:10.159 --> 00:44:15.400
me like the Braves have used pitchers
as the cornerstones of a lot of their

600
00:44:15.480 --> 00:44:20.079
trades lately, even guys that were
top one hundred prospects, like thinking back

601
00:44:20.079 --> 00:44:24.239
to Joey Wentz or Kyle Muller,
those guys that also had command concerns,

602
00:44:24.679 --> 00:44:30.440
neither really ever figured them out,
but they ended up being components of big

603
00:44:30.559 --> 00:44:32.519
and small trades. I guess Wentz
was just for one of those relievers.

604
00:44:32.559 --> 00:44:36.599
I forget which one, But anyway, like all that to say that I'm

605
00:44:36.760 --> 00:44:40.719
less likely to sort of appeal to
the authority of the Braves pitching development and

606
00:44:40.920 --> 00:44:45.079
project that kind of command improvement on
Walder, but I do think that there

607
00:44:45.119 --> 00:44:52.599
are real concerns about his ability to
throw strikes enough to get major league outs.

608
00:44:52.800 --> 00:44:57.079
All that said, I do think
that his stuff is right up there

609
00:44:57.159 --> 00:45:01.280
with Schemes and Meyer, like the
fastball, the shape, the splitter is

610
00:45:01.639 --> 00:45:07.079
maybe the single best pitch in the
draft this past year, if he can

611
00:45:07.400 --> 00:45:09.880
bring it together, like okay,
yeah, you maybe want to dream on

612
00:45:09.880 --> 00:45:13.159
that upside. I think I'm gonna
end up with him in one of my

613
00:45:13.239 --> 00:45:15.840
leagues where I have the Braves and
so you inherit their like top pick or

614
00:45:15.880 --> 00:45:19.840
whatever pick you want from them,
and I think he's pretty clearly the best

615
00:45:20.039 --> 00:45:22.400
pick for the Braves, So I
probably will end up with at least one

616
00:45:22.400 --> 00:45:28.840
share of waldrop But I'm just flagging
some concerns about that profile, and it

617
00:45:28.880 --> 00:45:32.280
gives gives me pause. I don't
disagree with that at all. If you

618
00:45:32.280 --> 00:45:37.320
think you're getting Strider two point zero
with Waldrope, like, I'm I can't

619
00:45:37.320 --> 00:45:39.599
get on that train. Could it
happen? Sure? Now? I will

620
00:45:39.639 --> 00:45:43.960
say, though, did you watch
any of his full season stuff this year?

621
00:45:44.039 --> 00:45:45.000
Mm? Hm, yeah, I
watched most of it. Starts Actually,

622
00:45:45.079 --> 00:45:49.119
I kind of felt he was the
guy I was thinking was just off

623
00:45:49.159 --> 00:45:52.679
my board, not going to really
consider. But watching the video, I

624
00:45:52.760 --> 00:45:57.880
got a little bit more confident.
I felt a little bit safeer that obviously

625
00:45:58.079 --> 00:46:02.039
I still kept him here now realistic
gonna pop him in my leagues, Probably

626
00:46:02.119 --> 00:46:05.920
not, because he'll probably be long
gone before I would do it. I

627
00:46:05.960 --> 00:46:08.320
felt a little bit better watching him. Did you still think that, like,

628
00:46:08.559 --> 00:46:12.719
I don't know, he didn't seem
like wild to me. There were

629
00:46:12.760 --> 00:46:15.199
a few that really got away,
But uh, I thought he did.

630
00:46:15.840 --> 00:46:19.679
I thought he did a good job
at least, like a pretty good command

631
00:46:19.840 --> 00:46:22.920
keeping keeping stuff south, giving stuff
down. Yeah, And I do think

632
00:46:22.960 --> 00:46:27.760
that that is mostly his issue.
And part of that is like the splitter,

633
00:46:28.000 --> 00:46:30.840
if he doesn't have feel for it, it's just gonna be below the

634
00:46:30.920 --> 00:46:35.679
zone every time. The splitter is
just a tough pitch for eOne. Really,

635
00:46:35.760 --> 00:46:38.599
I mean, look at like Keaton
Wynn, that's his name, nasty

636
00:46:38.679 --> 00:46:43.119
and kind of just all depends on
if he can command that well enough,

637
00:46:43.440 --> 00:46:46.519
well enough or not he's gonna find
major league success. But but yeah,

638
00:46:46.679 --> 00:46:52.000
yeah, I still felt like the
other pitcher pitches for Wilder, he like

639
00:46:52.079 --> 00:46:55.400
you'd see the catcher like up up
and then it'd be a fastball in the

640
00:46:55.519 --> 00:47:00.280
zone and like you look at his
like strike percentage and that's like a win

641
00:47:00.480 --> 00:47:04.280
for his strike percentage, but it
was a huge miss for his command.

642
00:47:05.000 --> 00:47:09.079
Or actually, I want the slider
off the plate and like just barely and

643
00:47:09.119 --> 00:47:13.920
it's like reaching way off the plate, you know. So you know,

644
00:47:13.960 --> 00:47:16.719
I saw enough of those that it
was like, and what was his strike

645
00:47:16.760 --> 00:47:22.840
percentage in the major in the minor
leagues, like fifty nine percent or something.

646
00:47:22.920 --> 00:47:25.519
Yeah, that's too low. Now, granted these were I think these

647
00:47:25.519 --> 00:47:30.079
were probably all prep guys, but
he didn't feel like that to me.

648
00:47:30.159 --> 00:47:32.599
It didn't feel like a Joe Boyle
to me. Yeah, I agree with

649
00:47:32.639 --> 00:47:37.679
that. And like I said,
there, Harris the line x Bruns was

650
00:47:37.719 --> 00:47:42.000
the worst command I've ever seen in
my wife and that yeah, he's not

651
00:47:42.159 --> 00:47:45.760
on that level. And there is
enough stuff here that like you can look

652
00:47:45.760 --> 00:47:49.719
at this and say, yeah,
maybe this was just a debut. The

653
00:47:49.760 --> 00:47:52.079
Braves now have an off season to
help him get right with the command,

654
00:47:52.239 --> 00:47:55.320
and then he's going to do the
Tyler glass. Now, just throw everything

655
00:47:55.360 --> 00:47:59.320
in the middle of the plate and
let your pitches work. That might work

656
00:47:59.360 --> 00:48:02.000
for a guy like Waldrop, and
maybe that's what he does next year and

657
00:48:02.760 --> 00:48:06.159
he brings the walk right down.
But yeah, you know, do you

658
00:48:06.199 --> 00:48:10.159
have more confidence that Waldrop could be
a starter or Misslerowski. Oh that's a

659
00:48:10.199 --> 00:48:15.920
good question. I think Waldrop,
like we've actually seen him do it for

660
00:48:15.320 --> 00:48:19.880
a pretty long time, and we've
never seen Miserowski do it. So I

661
00:48:19.920 --> 00:48:22.920
think with you, I will say
though, I would definitely, I would

662
00:48:22.920 --> 00:48:28.000
definitely take the first four guys well
before Waldrop, Skian's Meyer, White,

663
00:48:28.039 --> 00:48:30.000
and Louder. Talk to me about
White that I think that's the highest I've

664
00:48:30.000 --> 00:48:34.320
seen anybody on White. Well,
it's interesting to me, Matt. I

665
00:48:34.320 --> 00:48:37.000
mean, for anyone who's paid attention
to, you know, perfect game stuff.

666
00:48:37.239 --> 00:48:42.039
Meyer and White have been one A
and one B like quite some time.

667
00:48:42.280 --> 00:48:45.519
The way that the Marlins worked it
is they they drafted them like one

668
00:48:45.559 --> 00:48:49.079
A and one B. Meyer was
paid four and a half million, White

669
00:48:49.079 --> 00:48:52.760
got four point one million. And
what dynasty wise, we're looking at Meyer's

670
00:48:53.000 --> 00:48:57.639
thirty seven percent rostered right now,
where White's at twenty six. Like,

671
00:48:57.679 --> 00:49:00.239
man, if you really want Meyer
and you miss out on him, get

672
00:49:00.239 --> 00:49:02.320
White a little bit later. And
I think both these guys have like really

673
00:49:02.320 --> 00:49:07.320
big upside, these might be the
two guys, two prep arms. And

674
00:49:07.400 --> 00:49:09.440
maybe it's because I've paid a little
bit more attention, but I feel like

675
00:49:09.480 --> 00:49:14.920
these these are the two biggest prep
arms for me, maybe ever, or

676
00:49:14.960 --> 00:49:19.679
at least since I've paid more attention, or maybe Andrew Paynter was just so

677
00:49:19.760 --> 00:49:22.199
dang impressive, and I wonder if
these two might be able to get to

678
00:49:22.239 --> 00:49:28.440
that point. Interesting might very much
be wishful saying wishful thinking there, But

679
00:49:28.639 --> 00:49:32.159
I like these two kids a lot. So like with Meyer, obviously you

680
00:49:32.199 --> 00:49:36.360
got a righty and a lefty.
To me, the only like real separation.

681
00:49:36.800 --> 00:49:40.880
Noble's arsenal is a bit smaller.
He's like two pitch guy right now,

682
00:49:42.159 --> 00:49:45.360
not that he doesn't have a third
offering, but White's got like three,

683
00:49:45.280 --> 00:49:50.320
I think, really good, Like
that's that's there. Am I like

684
00:49:50.480 --> 00:49:52.440
just executes a bit better, and
White, you know, can can get

685
00:49:52.440 --> 00:49:57.880
a little loose at least that's kind
of how it's been, or how it

686
00:49:58.079 --> 00:50:01.800
was when I stopped paying attention,
you know, their last showcase. So

687
00:50:01.840 --> 00:50:05.880
I don't, I don't. I
don't think that there's a big difference in

688
00:50:06.159 --> 00:50:09.000
dynasty investment there between those two.
I'm by that I'm a little worried about

689
00:50:09.000 --> 00:50:15.760
what Meyer's shown, just I think
that he's got the fringe the beginnings of

690
00:50:15.760 --> 00:50:22.599
some command concerns that make Abel who
was his high school teammate and drafty a

691
00:50:22.679 --> 00:50:27.760
year before, like kind of similar
in you know, they're both drafted about

692
00:50:27.840 --> 00:50:31.159
the same quote unquote value and both
were super highly touted prep guys that have

693
00:50:31.280 --> 00:50:36.159
good stuff. But maybe the command
is going to take a little longer to

694
00:50:36.159 --> 00:50:39.000
come around. So while I have
seen some really glowing reports on Meyer,

695
00:50:39.159 --> 00:50:43.400
I'm pretty interested in White. You
know, like, as you said,

696
00:50:43.519 --> 00:50:45.880
if you like Meyer and miss on
him, take White and feel like you

697
00:50:46.000 --> 00:50:50.679
got basically the same kind of value. Yeah, I agree, you know,

698
00:50:50.880 --> 00:50:53.760
for for whatever it's worth. And
granted again, like I'm seeing like

699
00:50:53.920 --> 00:50:59.480
just glimpses, flashes, little bits
of showcases. I do like to watch

700
00:51:00.000 --> 00:51:02.599
showcases during the year. But I
would say I think both of these guys,

701
00:51:02.760 --> 00:51:07.320
as far as their execution at that
level, I think was better than

702
00:51:07.360 --> 00:51:10.159
Painters at that at the same juncture. That's why I mean Painter got with

703
00:51:10.239 --> 00:51:15.880
the Phillies and I don't know if
it was just physical development, technical stuff,

704
00:51:15.960 --> 00:51:17.960
whatever, whatever it was, there
there was something that I mean,

705
00:51:19.000 --> 00:51:22.719
he just pumped up a whole another
couple of tiers with the execution from what

706
00:51:22.800 --> 00:51:25.320
I had seen him on the circuit. If you are in a league where

707
00:51:25.320 --> 00:51:29.519
you feel like you have to invest
in pitching to some level, the three

708
00:51:29.559 --> 00:51:32.159
guys on the top right here,
I mean, you do it here,

709
00:51:32.360 --> 00:51:37.199
take those take those gambles. In
my opinion, here's here's a question for

710
00:51:37.239 --> 00:51:42.280
you, Nate. Where are you
slotting Yamamoto and Imanaga amongst this group?

711
00:51:42.480 --> 00:51:45.280
Oh? Well, I mean I
think you'd have to take Yamamoto first.

712
00:51:45.599 --> 00:51:50.760
But even in that, there's like
there's some contradiction too to me, because

713
00:51:50.840 --> 00:51:55.639
like I don't feel like super confident
with Yamamoto in the way that like I

714
00:51:55.639 --> 00:52:00.159
don't know that much about him.
I know that he's been phenomenal in the

715
00:52:00.199 --> 00:52:02.159
second best league in the world.
That's a lot of weight. But it

716
00:52:02.239 --> 00:52:06.199
was pretty great in the WBC too, Yeah, Yeah, I did see

717
00:52:06.239 --> 00:52:09.599
him then. Looks pretty phenomenal.
That's and that's what's dangerous and tricky with

718
00:52:09.760 --> 00:52:13.360
Bruce of your player draft stuff too. As you see, I mean,

719
00:52:13.440 --> 00:52:19.079
Darius Vines was probably probably had the
best showing one day outing of any minor

720
00:52:19.199 --> 00:52:22.480
league I've watched in the last like
three years, Like it's that make him

721
00:52:22.480 --> 00:52:24.360
the best prospects? Does that make
him the guy that you should invest in?

722
00:52:24.480 --> 00:52:29.960
Like I'm gonna I'm gonna trust that
Yamamoto is probably the best bet here.

723
00:52:30.280 --> 00:52:36.199
I would say for me, like
you couldn't get me to trade Yamamoto

724
00:52:36.480 --> 00:52:42.119
for skens Meyer, White, Louder
and Waldrop together. Yeah, I think

725
00:52:42.119 --> 00:52:47.039
that's that's for me, Like the
fact that a he's going to produce immediately.

726
00:52:47.280 --> 00:52:52.400
He's the Dodgers ace right away Hammerglass
now, I guess, And he's

727
00:52:52.800 --> 00:52:58.920
got a much longer track record than
any of these guys. I place so

728
00:52:59.039 --> 00:53:02.719
much value on right away that like
even if he wasn't as good as he

729
00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:07.599
already seems like I think that that
gets underrated in this that he's going to

730
00:53:07.679 --> 00:53:15.199
contribute to your team immediately, and
in Dynasty people underrate that value, Which

731
00:53:15.239 --> 00:53:17.760
gets me to my second question,
where do you slot Inmanaga in this?

732
00:53:19.280 --> 00:53:22.519
See and Middlely, I haven't really
paid much attention to him, I don't.

733
00:53:22.639 --> 00:53:25.719
I know, he's he's like thirty
right, so, like I know

734
00:53:25.760 --> 00:53:29.320
they're going to be in first year
player drafts in a lot of leagues and

735
00:53:29.360 --> 00:53:32.320
stuff. But I don't. I
don't consider them prospects. They're you know,

736
00:53:32.360 --> 00:53:37.599
they're they're newcomers, they're yep,
this is you have to make this

737
00:53:37.679 --> 00:53:39.840
decision. And a lot of fypds. I know you got to make this

738
00:53:39.880 --> 00:53:44.320
decision in fypds. That's why.
And it's it's a real question for me

739
00:53:44.360 --> 00:53:47.679
because I've got this one draft coming
up. Points league. I traded for

740
00:53:47.719 --> 00:53:51.920
the first overall pick, and I
have the fourth overall pick as well,

741
00:53:52.199 --> 00:53:57.119
and I'm legit wondering if I go
Yamo and then in Maanaga at four,

742
00:53:57.239 --> 00:54:00.239
Yeah, if I'm in if I'm
in a large league, if if I'm

743
00:54:00.239 --> 00:54:04.440
in a thirty teamer thirty teen points, yeah, I'm gonna take him.

744
00:54:04.519 --> 00:54:09.159
Probably, I'd take him over Louder, I'd take him forth, I'd take

745
00:54:09.199 --> 00:54:13.480
a shot on those other three.
Just if he was the same age as

746
00:54:13.519 --> 00:54:16.880
Yamamoto, then maybe that would be
different, not that thirty years old or

747
00:54:16.920 --> 00:54:21.719
anything like that. But I think
there is enough length and value there.

748
00:54:21.760 --> 00:54:24.679
I'm the leagues that I play in
are long standing. They're not going anywhere

749
00:54:25.000 --> 00:54:29.880
putting it in those kinds of terms. For like a guy who's going to

750
00:54:29.960 --> 00:54:35.719
slot into maybe your third or fourth
best pitcher in your rotation right away,

751
00:54:36.360 --> 00:54:42.360
in like in Nimanaga, I just
like I think those kinds of guys are

752
00:54:43.119 --> 00:54:47.280
worth more than a first round draft
pick, most of the first round draft

753
00:54:47.280 --> 00:54:50.840
pick. And again like depends on
the league and all of that good stuff,

754
00:54:50.840 --> 00:54:53.519
but I don't disagree. I now. For for a long time,

755
00:54:53.599 --> 00:54:58.599
I've been the guy who I took
Kim like second in the first year player

756
00:54:58.679 --> 00:55:06.079
draft over from Korea. Yeah,
what was that picture that really actually kind

757
00:55:06.079 --> 00:55:09.119
of sucked for the Rangers. The
Japanese guy that took over. I picked

758
00:55:09.159 --> 00:55:14.320
him over prospects. I shouldn't not
have picked him over. He busted,

759
00:55:14.400 --> 00:55:19.039
he sucked, his fastball was horrible
and got crushed. I took I took.

760
00:55:19.119 --> 00:55:22.119
I think it was Yamamoto as well, the guy that the Blue Jays

761
00:55:22.320 --> 00:55:25.199
had a few years back. I
think he was a came over in like

762
00:55:25.199 --> 00:55:30.159
twenty twenty. I took him early
in a first year player draft. Uh

763
00:55:30.800 --> 00:55:34.320
Hara, who you're talking about?
Yeah? Yeah, yeah, so and

764
00:55:34.519 --> 00:55:39.199
and I understand that these guys are
not the same level picture as I get

765
00:55:39.239 --> 00:55:44.960
that, but I have been bloodied
by taking the Japanese pictures coming over.

766
00:55:45.480 --> 00:55:47.320
And I don't think it was a
bad process. I think pick some bad

767
00:55:47.360 --> 00:55:51.400
guys that do it with Yeah,
I'm really curious about this, and I'm

768
00:55:51.400 --> 00:55:54.440
going to return to this question as
they get closer to that draft. I'm

769
00:55:55.159 --> 00:56:00.239
very very very likely to take a
Yamamoto first in that pick. I'm guessing

770
00:56:00.360 --> 00:56:06.480
Langford goes next, and I'd be
curious who's third. But sitting there at

771
00:56:06.559 --> 00:56:10.960
fourth, if I have to choose
between Skins, Imanaga or Cruise maybe or

772
00:56:12.039 --> 00:56:15.280
Jenkins, I guess would the other
one likely to be there? I might

773
00:56:15.719 --> 00:56:20.280
try and trade back, honestly,
because I Thinkaga will be around. And

774
00:56:21.280 --> 00:56:24.079
maybe it's just the wishful thinker in
me, but I can't get down on

775
00:56:24.320 --> 00:56:29.519
drafting the thirty year old pitcher over
Cruise or one of the guys that would

776
00:56:29.559 --> 00:56:32.960
have been a number one overall pick
most any other draft years. It's gonna

777
00:56:32.960 --> 00:56:36.760
be interesting. I mean, part
of this is that's just that's too much.

778
00:56:37.039 --> 00:56:39.840
That's that's too much for me to
It might very well be the responsible,

779
00:56:39.960 --> 00:56:44.239
smart adult play, So kudos to
you for being like that, but

780
00:56:44.400 --> 00:56:46.280
I just I don't, I know, I would never click that button when

781
00:56:46.320 --> 00:56:50.360
I'm sitting in the draft room.
Part of it is is the league like

782
00:56:51.039 --> 00:56:54.480
K's get just destroyed. So guys
that you think are really really good,

783
00:56:54.599 --> 00:56:58.920
if they have a strikeout rate above
twenty five percent, they're like not that

784
00:56:59.079 --> 00:57:01.880
good in this league. So that
like Akunya was far and away the best

785
00:57:01.880 --> 00:57:06.360
player in this league this past year, but it was because he dropped his

786
00:57:06.400 --> 00:57:10.119
strikeout rate down to whatever was like
eleven percent or something, absolutely insane.

787
00:57:10.400 --> 00:57:14.119
So Cruise, I think, is
going to have a bit more swing and

788
00:57:14.199 --> 00:57:16.760
miss. So even though he's got
some power and speed for sure, and

789
00:57:16.960 --> 00:57:21.599
I think it's gonna be quite good. I think for and it's gonna be

790
00:57:21.639 --> 00:57:23.360
a little while, Like I don't
think the Nats are going to rush him.

791
00:57:23.480 --> 00:57:28.920
And that's the other piece is like
my roster is fully set up to

792
00:57:29.039 --> 00:57:31.199
just compete now, Like I just
made a bunch of trades. I was

793
00:57:31.320 --> 00:57:35.519
like a tweener, I could go
one way or the other. And now

794
00:57:35.760 --> 00:57:39.360
my roster is like a bunch of
old guys who are good and ready to

795
00:57:39.440 --> 00:57:44.360
go. So that's the other reason
why I might shove in the Naga my

796
00:57:44.440 --> 00:57:45.840
board. But again, like it's
one I don't know, I don't know

797
00:57:45.920 --> 00:57:50.119
what to do with that one.
It's it's one that I'm gonna have to

798
00:57:50.360 --> 00:57:52.119
sit on a bit more. Yeah, no pickups in this league too,

799
00:57:52.280 --> 00:57:55.239
So that's the other reason I'm like, I like that format so much.

800
00:57:55.320 --> 00:57:59.719
That's putting on your big boy pants
format. In my opinion, I want

801
00:57:59.719 --> 00:58:00.840
to play more of us. But
you know, Matt, if you're like

802
00:58:00.880 --> 00:58:04.679
different, I like that. I
like that if you're a stuffist, though,

803
00:58:04.800 --> 00:58:07.280
Matt, the way that I feel
like pitching development is now with all

804
00:58:07.320 --> 00:58:12.599
of the technology and science and labs
behind it. Like if you're really if

805
00:58:12.639 --> 00:58:15.960
you're really a stuffist, you I
think you've got I think you've got to

806
00:58:15.079 --> 00:58:22.039
be willing to draft prep pictures.
Why because these kids have such good stuff

807
00:58:22.480 --> 00:58:28.599
and when you talk about trying to
hunt highbrow offerings and uh, these kids

808
00:58:28.639 --> 00:58:34.480
aren't like horrible, wild out of
control monsters either like h this class,

809
00:58:34.519 --> 00:58:37.000
I don't this class maybe, or
just kind of in general, like the

810
00:58:37.199 --> 00:58:42.760
high end high school pictures these days
are really freaking good in my opinion,

811
00:58:43.079 --> 00:58:45.800
way different than I think five six, seven years ago. I don't know,

812
00:58:46.000 --> 00:58:50.400
man, I just I just don't
know. Like, looking down the

813
00:58:50.480 --> 00:58:55.599
list of performers, it's just such
a mix, like you're hunting for stuff.

814
00:58:55.800 --> 00:59:00.480
And again, this is like comparing
some different eras for sure. But

815
00:59:00.880 --> 00:59:04.800
you know, I looked at twenty
twenty three auction calculator, who were top

816
00:59:04.880 --> 00:59:08.199
performers in a rotal league for pitchers. Garrett Cole, he was I thought

817
00:59:08.320 --> 00:59:13.639
the best pitcher in that class to
play against him. Blake Snell, Okay

818
00:59:14.079 --> 00:59:19.199
Stryder college guy. That stuff got
way better after college. Zach Efflin,

819
00:59:19.480 --> 00:59:23.199
Kyle Bradish, Zach Gallon, Leuis
Castillo, Kershaw high school guy, Hall

820
00:59:23.199 --> 00:59:28.639
of Famer, George Kirby college guy. Stuff got better in college. I'm

821
00:59:28.719 --> 00:59:31.519
just saying, like, I don't
think that the high schoolers have a monopoly

822
00:59:31.719 --> 00:59:37.000
on using the more modern techniques to
improve their No, not at all,

823
00:59:37.119 --> 00:59:42.079
but I think But I think major
league clubs are getting more confident and wiser

824
00:59:42.440 --> 00:59:46.000
and plucking the right ones and getting
them before they get to college, more

825
00:59:46.079 --> 00:59:50.360
so than when it was just the
day of the radar gun and oh Riley

826
00:59:50.440 --> 00:59:54.039
Pint throws really hard. He's the
guy. It'll be like what I shared

827
00:59:54.119 --> 00:59:57.840
earlier, where there was like,
okay, we had like two prep guys

828
00:59:57.920 --> 01:00:01.199
picked twenty one to fifty that became
like you know, fantasy studs. My

829
01:00:01.360 --> 01:00:06.039
gut tells me that in ten years, when you do that same study again,

830
01:00:06.119 --> 01:00:08.400
that number is going to be a
shit ton higher. Yeah, maybe

831
01:00:08.480 --> 01:00:15.239
I'm a little bit jaded by the
Mariners and Braves high school pictures from the

832
01:00:15.280 --> 01:00:20.360
past few years. Like looking back
on the Mariners past few drafts, every

833
01:00:20.440 --> 01:00:23.599
time they took a high school picture
early, they haven't really panned out.

834
01:00:23.840 --> 01:00:29.519
Yeah, twenty twenty one, Michael
Morales was their third rounder, Bryce Miller

835
01:00:29.599 --> 01:00:34.440
from A and M fourth rounder,
Bryan wu cal Poly sixth rounder. So

836
01:00:34.960 --> 01:00:38.719
the one that they popped early was
is the one that's by far the worst

837
01:00:38.840 --> 01:00:43.880
of that trio. And that goes
back to Sam Carlson and whatever that was

838
01:00:44.119 --> 01:00:51.000
twenty eighteen or something. Twenty nineteen
George Kirby first rounder Isaiah Campbell turned into

839
01:00:51.119 --> 01:00:54.400
something sort of and then their high
school guys like didn't pan out. So

840
01:00:54.880 --> 01:00:59.159
maybe that's my bias. I don't
know. It's like that they're a good

841
01:00:59.440 --> 01:01:02.320
pitching devi an organization and their high
schoolers have not panned out. I don't

842
01:01:02.360 --> 01:01:06.079
know. There was I feel like
back in the day there was a big

843
01:01:06.239 --> 01:01:09.960
chase to get Clayton Kershaw, who
was an ultimate prep arm story. And

844
01:01:10.000 --> 01:01:13.800
I feel like a lot of major
League clubs kind of chase that dream.

845
01:01:13.960 --> 01:01:15.519
But whatever. Like I said,
I think they're just better at it now

846
01:01:15.920 --> 01:01:19.599
and I just trust more, especially
with Matt, you and I. We

847
01:01:19.760 --> 01:01:23.039
just delved through every organization. Right, there's a lot of poop man.

848
01:01:23.280 --> 01:01:28.320
Oh yeah, there's a lot of
a lot of arms that you zero interest

849
01:01:28.519 --> 01:01:31.320
in having a share of. Right, Yeah, several organizations were was like,

850
01:01:31.440 --> 01:01:35.920
man, does anyone here have like
a pitch that gets me on the

851
01:01:36.000 --> 01:01:37.760
edge of my seat a little bit? Right? Yeah, I mean there's

852
01:01:37.840 --> 01:01:42.480
more than the ten prep arms that
I have in here from this class.

853
01:01:42.480 --> 01:01:45.719
It's like all of those guys,
there are more of those moments where you're

854
01:01:45.719 --> 01:01:51.800
just like, whoh okay. Then
watching all of the Cardinals organization or all

855
01:01:51.880 --> 01:01:55.760
of the Nationals organization, Yeah,
there's so and the ten that I sort

856
01:01:55.800 --> 01:01:59.920
of picked out and put on my
list, those are all guys that real

857
01:02:00.000 --> 01:02:04.800
relatively speaking, I feel good about
their ability to use that. Plus stuff

858
01:02:04.920 --> 01:02:08.519
like like Walters. Walters might have
the best sort of execution that I saw,

859
01:02:08.519 --> 01:02:12.119
at least in a little bit of
a stint. And his stuff is

860
01:02:12.679 --> 01:02:17.760
hard like velocity and movement, like
it's a I don't know, he just

861
01:02:17.840 --> 01:02:22.639
looks so much more exciting than so
many of the dregs that we force ourselves

862
01:02:22.719 --> 01:02:25.599
to watch. Man. Well,
I'll admit I've been a bit of a

863
01:02:25.719 --> 01:02:31.840
downer about pictures in general and drafting
them in fipdes. But I did run

864
01:02:31.960 --> 01:02:38.079
through and found a couple of arms
that I think are worth at least following.

865
01:02:38.360 --> 01:02:42.119
These are guys that I might put
on a watch list. Like,

866
01:02:42.320 --> 01:02:45.920
again, I'm probably not drafting any
of these deeper names, and like I'm

867
01:02:45.960 --> 01:02:49.760
probably not getting any of the higher
brown names, as Nate likes to say,

868
01:02:50.199 --> 01:02:52.599
because I'm gonna wait way longer on
them. But I did find a

869
01:02:52.639 --> 01:02:55.800
couple of guys that I think are
worth at least keeping in the back of

870
01:02:55.880 --> 01:03:00.400
your mind. You can see that
the names on my on my list here,

871
01:03:01.440 --> 01:03:05.480
I mean that'll get you through that
whole list, will get you through

872
01:03:05.559 --> 01:03:07.719
the deepest of first year player drafts. I mean there's guys on the bottom

873
01:03:07.800 --> 01:03:14.039
there that aren't gonna get drafted even
you know. So those are just kind

874
01:03:14.079 --> 01:03:17.519
of my different points in the draft, big small, whatever that I would

875
01:03:17.559 --> 01:03:21.519
take take a shot at. I
think there's plenty of dudes in there that

876
01:03:21.599 --> 01:03:24.760
are going to go unknowned in your
definitely any leag you're in, definitely,

877
01:03:24.960 --> 01:03:30.119
But I popped a couple that either
you dismissed her or haven't quite looked at

878
01:03:30.199 --> 01:03:34.360
you. Yeah, So let me
let me talk about a couple of these

879
01:03:34.400 --> 01:03:37.639
guys. That's what I want to
know. So the first one that I

880
01:03:37.719 --> 01:03:44.559
think is somewhat interesting is Jayce Stofel. Stofel was an eighth rounder for the

881
01:03:44.639 --> 01:03:49.840
Twins this year out of the University
of Oregon down there in Eugene. He's

882
01:03:49.920 --> 01:03:52.159
a TJ guy. He blew out
this year in his draft year, but

883
01:03:52.559 --> 01:03:58.960
he looked really good before that.
I watched most of his start versus Arizona,

884
01:03:59.079 --> 01:04:02.320
which I think was on. He
had a really athletic delivery, commanded

885
01:04:02.360 --> 01:04:05.840
pretty well with the fastball, and
had a plus change up. I mean,

886
01:04:05.880 --> 01:04:09.920
it's definitely plus. It's not like
the best thing I've ever seen.

887
01:04:09.960 --> 01:04:14.079
It's not like a Logan Henderson disappearing
change up, but it's good. It's

888
01:04:14.480 --> 01:04:16.920
a good change up and a slider
that was solid, and I think he

889
01:04:17.000 --> 01:04:24.239
mixed in a curveball as well.
I liked his overall package, and it

890
01:04:24.360 --> 01:04:27.800
was a bit of a bummer that
he blew up. He liked his package,

891
01:04:27.880 --> 01:04:30.320
Yeah, I sure did. I
sure did. He stuffed it pretty

892
01:04:30.400 --> 01:04:36.840
nice. And he's one that I'm
pretty interested in seeing what the Twins in

893
01:04:36.960 --> 01:04:42.280
particular can do, because I think
the Twins are good at coaxing a little

894
01:04:42.280 --> 01:04:45.400
bit of extra velocity out of their
pitchers, and if he does that,

895
01:04:45.679 --> 01:04:49.159
like he could be a real find
for them in the eighth round. Again,

896
01:04:49.199 --> 01:04:53.519
he's not going to pitch next year, so this is someone to keep

897
01:04:53.519 --> 01:04:57.119
an eye out for in twenty five. But thought he was interesting. Quinn

898
01:04:57.239 --> 01:05:02.760
Matthews, lefty for Stanford, fourth
rounder, most famous for throwing one hundred

899
01:05:02.760 --> 01:05:09.960
and fifty six pitches in their regional
game against Texas or Super maybe that was

900
01:05:10.000 --> 01:05:15.039
the Super against Texas. That outing
is worth watching just to see that because

901
01:05:15.360 --> 01:05:18.119
that doesn't happen at really any level
anymore. And I think mostly there's good

902
01:05:18.159 --> 01:05:21.440
reasons for that. And you know, there was a big hullabaloo about him

903
01:05:21.480 --> 01:05:26.760
throwing one hundred and fifty six pitches
in a game prior to the draft and

904
01:05:26.840 --> 01:05:30.440
all of this stuff, and he
had some nice quotes afterwards about how,

905
01:05:30.679 --> 01:05:33.719
look, I'm a senior guy,
I'm not a big prospect. I wanted

906
01:05:33.760 --> 01:05:36.119
to do this for my team.
I put the team on my back.

907
01:05:36.280 --> 01:05:40.519
All super cool stuff that I would
have been just so pumped about as his

908
01:05:40.679 --> 01:05:43.719
teammate, and like, probably bad
for him in the long term, but

909
01:05:43.800 --> 01:05:47.000
anyway, he's still a prospective.
Note he's really tall, like six seven,

910
01:05:47.039 --> 01:05:50.800
I think lefty up to ninety four, but I saw mostly like eighty

911
01:05:50.800 --> 01:05:56.400
eight to ninety two, and kind
of a straight fastball rather than like with

912
01:05:56.559 --> 01:06:00.880
sink or anything. But his changeup
is comfortably a plus pitch, and he's

913
01:06:00.920 --> 01:06:03.719
got really good command. He was
the best pitcher statistically in the PAC twelve

914
01:06:03.800 --> 01:06:08.280
last year by I think some margin. He was. He was pretty good,

915
01:06:08.280 --> 01:06:13.320
and I also liked his sweeper.
His sweeper got strikeouts both to lefties

916
01:06:13.360 --> 01:06:15.880
and to righty's, and he commanded
it all over the zone, which I

917
01:06:15.920 --> 01:06:18.880
also liked. He would go up
with a fastball even at ninety and get

918
01:06:18.920 --> 01:06:23.559
a whiff. His change up lives
below his own, and he got swinging

919
01:06:23.639 --> 01:06:27.840
strikes from lefties, from righties,
from soft contact. Corn Matthews is pretty

920
01:06:27.880 --> 01:06:30.519
fun. Yeah, no, I'm
with you, I wrote. I felt

921
01:06:30.559 --> 01:06:33.719
like he's the volvo of this draft
class. Interesting and a guy who you're

922
01:06:33.760 --> 01:06:38.119
not. I don't think you need
to draft in a small league but the

923
01:06:38.239 --> 01:06:41.960
kind of guy that in a thirty
team league you bump way up out of

924
01:06:42.119 --> 01:06:45.679
anyone you might feel the best that
you're going to get something out of that,

925
01:06:45.239 --> 01:06:47.199
out of anyone that you don't have
to pay a lot for. You

926
01:06:47.239 --> 01:06:54.039
know, an average two points league
is money. Bump him way up if

927
01:06:54.079 --> 01:06:58.800
you want to be your boring,
responsible pitching speculator in a large league.

928
01:06:58.840 --> 01:07:01.280
And he went to the car Knowles
as well. Who have you know some

929
01:07:01.599 --> 01:07:06.000
history of developing pictures. I think
him he is more of their classic type

930
01:07:06.079 --> 01:07:11.559
as opposed to Lyin, But I
do like him, and he has the

931
01:07:11.679 --> 01:07:15.639
chance to move pretty quickly. Harry's
didn't pitch in pro ball after incredible usage

932
01:07:15.719 --> 01:07:19.840
that he had in college. But
he's one that I'm interested to see how

933
01:07:19.920 --> 01:07:24.480
the stuff plays in full season involved. I expect he'll start at loway and

934
01:07:24.559 --> 01:07:27.360
he might move pretty quickly. I
agree. I want to touch on too.

935
01:07:27.440 --> 01:07:31.079
I got I have a personal cheese
ball here, Dylan Custed, Wisconsin

936
01:07:31.119 --> 01:07:35.400
Prep arm. Now, obviously I'm
biased towards Wisconsin guys, but I followed

937
01:07:35.480 --> 01:07:41.840
Kusta for the last couple of years
and I legitimately like him as a prospect,

938
01:07:42.000 --> 01:07:45.280
not just because there's plenty of Wisconsin
guys I've followed that I have no

939
01:07:45.400 --> 01:07:50.320
interest in. But he uh and
talk about the sort of competitor and guy

940
01:07:50.400 --> 01:07:55.159
that I think is just honing and
pounding his craft, like I get like

941
01:07:55.320 --> 01:08:00.960
Joey ESA's vibes from from Kustad,
but like with probably sharper and more dangerous

942
01:08:01.039 --> 01:08:04.519
offerings, mid nineties fastball, He's
got a really sharp slider. All of

943
01:08:04.599 --> 01:08:09.800
those things have gotten better over the
last year couple of years. In his

944
01:08:10.159 --> 01:08:15.039
national showcases, he took it to
the big boys and dominated them. The

945
01:08:15.239 --> 01:08:18.479
Twins popped him in the fifth round
for a half a mill large league.

946
01:08:18.600 --> 01:08:24.760
You want to have some fun,
I would marry Dylan use that idea here,

947
01:08:25.000 --> 01:08:29.199
that's a fun one. Didn't know
anything about him, but unlike no,

948
01:08:29.760 --> 01:08:32.199
no, no, but like you
know, like unlike Esses, who

949
01:08:32.319 --> 01:08:36.199
was a prep catcher more or less
in the you know, day three pick,

950
01:08:36.520 --> 01:08:40.720
You're like, I'm not so sure
if the offerings play as he moves

951
01:08:40.760 --> 01:08:43.279
along, like I feel like with
Houston, it's like, yeah, they

952
01:08:43.680 --> 01:08:46.560
those are going to play at least
until you know you get to the to

953
01:08:46.640 --> 01:08:54.000
the upper uppers. Like his his
fastball slider combos it's good made the best

954
01:08:54.039 --> 01:08:59.960
prep hitters. Uh, look pretty
horrible. Travis Secora. I think it's

955
01:09:00.079 --> 01:09:01.520
how you say it. I don't
know if you've seen any of him.

956
01:09:01.680 --> 01:09:06.399
I think it's huge. Yeah,
yeah, guy can guy can throw a

957
01:09:06.520 --> 01:09:10.840
hundred. I want to say,
that's kind of like all his game is.

958
01:09:10.960 --> 01:09:14.399
But I don't think the secondaries are
horrible. And you're talking about a

959
01:09:14.920 --> 01:09:16.920
high school kid. But and he
went to the Nationals, Like, oh

960
01:09:17.000 --> 01:09:19.800
man, look at Nationals. Now
they got a guy who can break glass.

961
01:09:20.359 --> 01:09:24.159
Look at this kind of like Lynn
right, like, oh, maybe

962
01:09:24.199 --> 01:09:28.680
they finally realize they need some sort
of power arm or he's just going to

963
01:09:28.720 --> 01:09:32.399
break like Denniburgh did well. And
it's not a it's not a one for

964
01:09:32.520 --> 01:09:34.920
one. But I want to at
least like kind of keep an eye on

965
01:09:35.079 --> 01:09:39.000
here, because if you remember Kate, I know he's college guy, but

966
01:09:39.239 --> 01:09:42.560
Kate Cavali, I mean he was
he was just he was just a big

967
01:09:42.640 --> 01:09:46.199
fastball more or less, and he
got to the grindstone and he worked on

968
01:09:46.279 --> 01:09:50.680
all of his secondaries. So not
my classic sort of guy that I would

969
01:09:51.319 --> 01:09:55.520
make a bet on and stick to, but I might I might hear in

970
01:09:55.840 --> 01:09:59.319
a larger league like we were talking
about hitters. What's the repercussions? Just

971
01:09:59.399 --> 01:10:01.680
drop him in somebody else. But
he's interested if you like velocity, you

972
01:10:01.760 --> 01:10:05.840
want a big power picture out of
this prep class. Like he Scora was

973
01:10:05.920 --> 01:10:11.520
like the vlo king of this very
good class. Not the demographic that I'm

974
01:10:11.800 --> 01:10:15.279
interested in playing in. But you
know, he could be a guy who

975
01:10:16.079 --> 01:10:19.800
he's not like. He doesn't strike
me as a like out of control guy,

976
01:10:20.000 --> 01:10:26.000
like a fairly athletic. He's a
maybe a little bit of a sort

977
01:10:26.039 --> 01:10:29.000
of upper body, but uh,
I don't know, Like you watch a

978
01:10:29.079 --> 01:10:30.359
guy like that, You're like,
Okay, I could see it getting tighter.

979
01:10:30.560 --> 01:10:32.520
I could see it tightened up.
Some guys you watch, you're like,

980
01:10:32.560 --> 01:10:34.840
oh yeah, no, I'm not
gonna better on that at all.

981
01:10:34.960 --> 01:10:40.239
All Right, I got a couple
more here that I think are somewhat interesting.

982
01:10:40.720 --> 01:10:45.680
Lucas Braun for the Braves. He
was a sixth rounder out of cal

983
01:10:45.760 --> 01:10:49.600
State Northridge. He's listed at six
foot, but seemed like maybe he's a

984
01:10:49.720 --> 01:10:54.159
touch below that, so a little
bit smaller, and I wonder if that's

985
01:10:54.199 --> 01:10:57.439
part of the reason why he fell. But he had a solid college career.

986
01:10:57.800 --> 01:11:01.039
I think he transferred into north Ridge
from either a JC or a D

987
01:11:01.199 --> 01:11:08.279
three school, and then was solid
in college, but I think was even

988
01:11:08.399 --> 01:11:13.199
better after he made it into full
season ball. Has a really good slider.

989
01:11:13.319 --> 01:11:15.920
I read the BA draft report on
him and they were like, oh,

990
01:11:15.000 --> 01:11:17.439
yeah, the slider is decent,
But watching it, I was like,

991
01:11:17.520 --> 01:11:20.880
this thing is electric. It is
more of the gyro slider, some

992
01:11:21.000 --> 01:11:25.359
more downward breaking. When he put
that at the bottom of the zone,

993
01:11:25.720 --> 01:11:29.359
everybody was swinging over it, and
he had a couple of really nice outings

994
01:11:29.479 --> 01:11:33.199
that were on video in pro ball. So he's one to watch. Fastball

995
01:11:33.319 --> 01:11:38.199
I think was up to ninety five
and again comes in at a slightly flatter

996
01:11:38.279 --> 01:11:40.920
approach angle. I don't think it
has a lot of the plus traits of

997
01:11:41.079 --> 01:11:45.319
some of the fastballs that we've talked
about, but the plus slider and a

998
01:11:45.439 --> 01:11:49.000
change up that he threw sometimes I
thought were interesting enough to mention. And

999
01:11:49.319 --> 01:11:55.000
I'm interested because one thing I do
think the Braves too well is help optimize

1000
01:11:55.199 --> 01:11:58.159
pitch mix and pitch usage, and
I wonder if they did a little bit

1001
01:11:58.159 --> 01:12:00.000
of that with him, because the
other part of the base Ball America report

1002
01:12:00.079 --> 01:12:06.000
on Brawn was he was very fastball
heavy in college, like seventy percent plus

1003
01:12:06.479 --> 01:12:11.760
fastballs, and his fastball is fine, and especially in college, but he

1004
01:12:12.239 --> 01:12:15.760
reminds me of Tyson Miller in that
his slider's way better and he probably should

1005
01:12:15.800 --> 01:12:20.479
throw that more than leaning on a
fastball in the load of mid nineties.

1006
01:12:20.560 --> 01:12:24.439
So Lucas Brown I thought was pretty
interesting. He's a follow for me.

1007
01:12:24.840 --> 01:12:30.319
Another one that I saw live actually
was Owen Wild for Gonzaga. He got

1008
01:12:30.680 --> 01:12:35.399
drafted by Tampa in the seventh round, and he had decent peripherals, although

1009
01:12:35.560 --> 01:12:40.960
his results were more good than great
in college, and again, the West

1010
01:12:41.039 --> 01:12:45.760
Coast Conference is fine. I think
often you might see pitchers who kind of

1011
01:12:45.760 --> 01:12:49.600
should dominate there, and Wild didn't
really dominate. But I did think that

1012
01:12:49.760 --> 01:12:57.039
his fastball maybe had some of those
plus peripherals or plus underlying shape traits,

1013
01:12:57.279 --> 01:13:00.359
because he was spinning that really well
at the top of the zone when I

1014
01:13:00.399 --> 01:13:04.920
saw him, and guys that usually
handle fastballs pretty well were either popping his

1015
01:13:05.119 --> 01:13:10.279
fastball up or swinging and missing on
it. So I thought that was interesting

1016
01:13:10.359 --> 01:13:14.119
and I made a note of that. And you know, getting taken by

1017
01:13:14.199 --> 01:13:17.199
the rays, I think that's something
that they prioritize as well as having a

1018
01:13:17.319 --> 01:13:24.920
plus fastball shape or something interesting about
your pitches. Not an overwhelming recommendation for

1019
01:13:25.079 --> 01:13:29.159
me on Owen Wild, but somebody
I think to watch. And I'm curious

1020
01:13:29.199 --> 01:13:31.920
what the Rays ended up doing with
him? Was he was all right,

1021
01:13:32.039 --> 01:13:35.359
all right, well, there's a
couple of a couple of pieces of some

1022
01:13:35.520 --> 01:13:40.880
first year player draft arm puzzles there
god speed and don't spend too much,

1023
01:13:41.199 --> 01:13:44.439
and if you do spend a lot
or at all, they just make it

1024
01:13:44.479 --> 01:13:50.840
those top four guys. But and
man, I got some questions from twitter

1025
01:13:51.000 --> 01:13:57.640
verse. Yeah, sure, I
guess my better judgment. I asked twitter

1026
01:13:57.800 --> 01:14:01.079
verse if they had any questions,
so very much, assuming that I get

1027
01:14:01.199 --> 01:14:05.319
zero responses. But I had three
people ask good questions. I think,

1028
01:14:05.439 --> 01:14:10.439
all right, which one do you
want to do first? Brian C at

1029
01:14:10.560 --> 01:14:15.920
Baseball Fan One? Who are your
favorite post injury pitching prospects to make the

1030
01:14:16.039 --> 01:14:19.880
show or be moving back up boards
this year? And who are you out

1031
01:14:19.960 --> 01:14:26.960
on hmm, I mean Mike Wiser
or major League I'm assuming that he was

1032
01:14:27.760 --> 01:14:31.359
pitching prospects for me. Mike Burrows
and Kate Cavally are at the top for

1033
01:14:31.520 --> 01:14:35.439
guys who are injured should be coming
back this year, I think Burrows.

1034
01:14:35.680 --> 01:14:39.960
Maybe Burrows doesn't come back this year, but those are my two favorites.

1035
01:14:40.000 --> 01:14:44.000
I mean, I think I was
all about Cavali after just watching the secondary

1036
01:14:44.159 --> 01:14:47.319
development. He's got a rotation spot
waiting for him, I'm pretty sure whenever

1037
01:14:47.399 --> 01:14:50.560
he's ready. And I think that
is a guy who you know, has

1038
01:14:51.039 --> 01:14:56.640
front of the rotation sort of upside
and ability. Mike Burrows. I mean,

1039
01:14:56.720 --> 01:15:00.760
Burrows was he was creeping in top
one hundreds, and then Tommy John

1040
01:15:00.960 --> 01:15:02.640
just everyone seemed to forget about him. But I like Burrows, yeah,

1041
01:15:02.640 --> 01:15:06.279
And you know, I like both. I think Cavali is one that did

1042
01:15:06.520 --> 01:15:11.760
kind of come into pro bawl with
little command and a big fastball, and

1043
01:15:12.039 --> 01:15:15.479
I think he put it together quite
well. So I'm actually quite a fan

1044
01:15:15.560 --> 01:15:19.920
of his now Burrows coming into last
year too, So yeah, he was

1045
01:15:19.960 --> 01:15:25.119
someone I was really excited to see
and was bummed he got to one guy

1046
01:15:25.239 --> 01:15:28.640
that, uh, he's back from
injury. But I'm Jake Eater. I

1047
01:15:28.720 --> 01:15:30.800
don't have faith in that he's the
guy that I'm his whole. He was

1048
01:15:30.840 --> 01:15:34.840
a reliever in Vanderbilt. He had
like a nice like what twelve thirteen start

1049
01:15:34.960 --> 01:15:39.720
run to start his pro career and
he's never been that. And mind you,

1050
01:15:40.239 --> 01:15:44.279
he blew out his elbow when they
gave him for the first time starter's

1051
01:15:44.399 --> 01:15:47.600
workload. Like I'm not I'm not
making any of that that eater is ever

1052
01:15:47.680 --> 01:15:51.960
going to be the eater that some
had thought before his time job. And

1053
01:15:53.159 --> 01:15:57.439
I'm still a little down on Max
Meyer. I think he's a plus slider

1054
01:15:57.800 --> 01:16:02.399
and not good anything else, and
that I know he had a really nice

1055
01:16:02.520 --> 01:16:09.479
run prior to debuting. I just
think that's like a at best kind of

1056
01:16:09.720 --> 01:16:13.279
five starter. Maybe it plays up
in relief and they put him in a

1057
01:16:13.479 --> 01:16:16.600
high leverage relief role, but Myers
and of course not excited about him.

1058
01:16:16.800 --> 01:16:21.319
And of course the the best pitching
prospect in the land is recovering from Timmy

1059
01:16:21.359 --> 01:16:24.840
John right now as well Andrew Paynter. I was going to say, I

1060
01:16:24.880 --> 01:16:30.720
don't think the advance gooder had a
j just kidding. I love Andrew Painter

1061
01:16:30.840 --> 01:16:34.279
too, He's incredible. We talked
about a few guys during our division series

1062
01:16:34.399 --> 01:16:38.520
that that were oh man, there's
a couple of guys last year. Then

1063
01:16:38.720 --> 01:16:40.800
oh, I'm curious to see,
if you know, if you want to

1064
01:16:40.800 --> 01:16:44.520
get real B side. Pablo aldonas
if he pitches this year. There's a

1065
01:16:44.560 --> 01:16:46.840
few other former b sides that didn't
pitch like at all last year. Yeah,

1066
01:16:46.960 --> 01:16:49.880
I don't remember off the time I
had, but a couple a couple

1067
01:16:49.960 --> 01:16:55.439
other ones that I'm really interested to
see are jar Richie and Cole Phillips.

1068
01:16:55.760 --> 01:16:59.199
Oh yeah, yeah, good call, formerly of the Braves, but Phillips

1069
01:16:59.239 --> 01:17:02.119
now with and Richie still with the
Braves. I think both those guys should

1070
01:17:02.119 --> 01:17:05.359
see a decent number of innings this
year, and I'm really curious what they

1071
01:17:05.640 --> 01:17:11.359
what they look like. I've just
seen greeny backfield video and some perfect of

1072
01:17:11.359 --> 01:17:14.439
stuff. I think Richie can paints
a little bit. Yeah, That's what

1073
01:17:14.520 --> 01:17:16.720
I've heard, and has plus stuff
too, So you know, he was

1074
01:17:16.800 --> 01:17:20.920
one that I was kind of curious
of that trio for the Braves was that

1075
01:17:21.079 --> 01:17:27.239
last year with Murphy, Richie and
Phillips. I thought that Richie maybe was

1076
01:17:27.279 --> 01:17:30.479
the one that was the most interesting. But yeah, so those guys are

1077
01:17:30.560 --> 01:17:33.520
once that I'm interested in, and
then honestly a bunch of the poor Rockies

1078
01:17:33.600 --> 01:17:38.760
pitchers that all got interested last year. Jordy Vargas, I think, is

1079
01:17:38.840 --> 01:17:43.359
one that I was really excited to
see Hughes and didn't. Chris McMahon also

1080
01:17:43.439 --> 01:17:47.159
get TJ like all those guys I
thought were interesting at one level or another

1081
01:17:47.279 --> 01:17:51.640
and sucks they're all out next year
and Candy's just going seven every night,

1082
01:17:51.800 --> 01:17:58.720
just laughing at him, all right, and then uh Greg at Greg who

1083
01:17:59.039 --> 01:18:02.520
camp a stuffs. Beyond surface stats, what are one to two things you

1084
01:18:02.600 --> 01:18:06.800
look for in a pitching prospect in
the low levels that could signal a breakout?

1085
01:18:08.039 --> 01:18:10.920
I mean, I think it can
be my rad of thing, my

1086
01:18:11.479 --> 01:18:15.159
rad ism I saying that right,
no, thank you, and could be

1087
01:18:15.199 --> 01:18:19.000
a myriad of things. But I
think we talked about a lot of those

1088
01:18:19.119 --> 01:18:25.399
during our b siding. But I
also think it's just kind of synonymous throughout

1089
01:18:25.439 --> 01:18:30.000
any level. I want to see
guys with stuff that can miss bats,

1090
01:18:30.119 --> 01:18:32.720
that can get guys out force week
contact, but they know how to use

1091
01:18:32.760 --> 01:18:35.840
it and they know how to pitch. Furthermore, in the lowers, I

1092
01:18:35.960 --> 01:18:41.880
want to see guys like like Joey
Estes was and working on the offerings that

1093
01:18:42.039 --> 01:18:46.399
are not his best and becoming We're
working on becoming well rounded pitchers with full

1094
01:18:46.520 --> 01:18:50.960
arsenals and not trying away from filling
up the zone and potentially getting your tits

1095
01:18:51.039 --> 01:18:55.239
lit from time to time, like
comes with the territory if you're if you're

1096
01:18:55.239 --> 01:18:59.800
going to be a matador or excuse
me if you're Yeah, and I said

1097
01:18:59.880 --> 01:19:03.800
already in this episode, but strikeout
minus walk rate remains the best predictor for

1098
01:19:04.479 --> 01:19:09.439
sort of the widely available data you
know that you can even get for high

1099
01:19:09.439 --> 01:19:15.840
school kids and college kids. And
then you add in the batted ball profile,

1100
01:19:15.960 --> 01:19:18.800
so ground ball percentage, flyball percentage, in field, flyball percentage,

1101
01:19:19.039 --> 01:19:25.359
those combine to tell you a lot
about what is working for that picture or

1102
01:19:25.720 --> 01:19:30.359
what isn't working. So understanding I
think the other thing it's not so much

1103
01:19:30.439 --> 01:19:33.920
the what are the surface stats,
it's how does that compare to their peers,

1104
01:19:34.279 --> 01:19:41.760
So like knowing what are the averages
both at that level and at levels

1105
01:19:41.840 --> 01:19:45.159
that might be successful. So like
you look at a guy who's on in

1106
01:19:45.520 --> 01:19:50.439
the complex or at low A,
and if they have a strikeouts per nine

1107
01:19:50.560 --> 01:19:56.079
of nine and a walks per nine
of three, you look at that,

1108
01:19:56.279 --> 01:19:58.640
and you look at the major leaguers
who have that, you're like, oh,

1109
01:19:58.760 --> 01:20:01.680
that's pretty good. Like that's a
really valuable pitcher who has a strike

1110
01:20:01.720 --> 01:20:05.800
out rate of nine and a walks
per nine of three, just as a

1111
01:20:05.840 --> 01:20:11.159
baseline, ignoring everything else, that's
probably not very good for that level.

1112
01:20:11.319 --> 01:20:15.399
You look at the guys who now
have strike out rates in the major leagues

1113
01:20:15.439 --> 01:20:18.560
of nine and have walk rates of
three. At those levels, it was

1114
01:20:18.840 --> 01:20:24.039
almost always better. So they actually
had a strike out rate of twelve at

1115
01:20:24.079 --> 01:20:27.479
that level and a walk rate of
two at that level. So I think

1116
01:20:27.560 --> 01:20:30.479
that's one thing that if you're just
scouting the stat line or like checking your

1117
01:20:30.520 --> 01:20:34.079
box scores for your favorite team,
that you can get misled by if you

1118
01:20:34.119 --> 01:20:39.520
don't have the broader context in mind. Yeah. Also two in the lowers

1119
01:20:39.600 --> 01:20:42.560
like you, We've talked a bit
about this, but you want to be

1120
01:20:43.079 --> 01:20:48.600
cognizant and aware of pitchers who might
be putting up gaudy lines and dominating those

1121
01:20:48.680 --> 01:20:54.319
lineups with just like one really good
secondary. Think we saw that with Myrtle

1122
01:20:54.359 --> 01:20:58.359
Beach two years ago, and they
had a great staff, a lot of

1123
01:20:58.399 --> 01:21:02.479
them threw really good change change ups
that hitters at that level hadn't seen that

1124
01:21:02.640 --> 01:21:06.159
sort of quality of and those guys
all put up really good numbers. But

1125
01:21:06.279 --> 01:21:11.159
then it wasn't anything like that as
they moved up, So you want to

1126
01:21:11.199 --> 01:21:15.079
watch even a couple of Royal B
sides. Roybert salinis right. I mean

1127
01:21:15.159 --> 01:21:19.159
he was insane k rates and now
you know as he moves up, you're

1128
01:21:19.199 --> 01:21:23.399
like, yeah, you know,
that's probably a relief pitcher. I don't

1129
01:21:23.399 --> 01:21:27.039
know, he's he's showed some things. I'm I'm interested in him still,

1130
01:21:27.159 --> 01:21:29.640
But I was going to say,
even a couple of my B sides this

1131
01:21:29.760 --> 01:21:32.880
year, like I'm thinking of Jose
Flury guy has dominated the lower miners,

1132
01:21:33.000 --> 01:21:36.840
like all those markers that you look
at look incredible, but then you watch

1133
01:21:36.920 --> 01:21:41.000
him pitch and you're like, oh, yeah, it's because he's dominating with

1134
01:21:41.239 --> 01:21:45.439
one secondary. That's been true of
a couple of my my B side arms

1135
01:21:45.600 --> 01:21:49.560
that like hats like one pitch is
they're really leaning on for their success and

1136
01:21:49.720 --> 01:21:54.279
that's a lot harder to do the
higher you go, for sure. And

1137
01:21:54.359 --> 01:21:59.880
then I got one last one Matt
from my good buddy Steven Porter SPP.

1138
01:22:00.399 --> 01:22:04.640
He wants us to do a B
side version of Shelley V's tweet where she

1139
01:22:04.800 --> 01:22:10.039
asks one prospect your higher the most, one prospect you're lower the most,

1140
01:22:10.119 --> 01:22:14.359
and one prospect who will rise up
lists In twenty twenty four, now I

1141
01:22:14.520 --> 01:22:16.680
want to do this. I'm gonna
pick. I'm gonna I'm gonna speak for

1142
01:22:16.800 --> 01:22:20.880
you and you speak for me.
Oh okay, okay, all right,

1143
01:22:21.000 --> 01:22:24.760
so you know tell me if I
if I did well or that. So

1144
01:22:24.880 --> 01:22:28.920
one prospect that Matt is higher on
than most, I'll go with read on

1145
01:22:29.000 --> 01:22:30.960
Scooter. That's good pick, good
pick. Okay? Is that all right?

1146
01:22:31.159 --> 01:22:36.000
One prospect he's lower on the most
is JDP Jess Wade to follow,

1147
01:22:36.720 --> 01:22:42.359
And one prospect Matt thinks will rise
up lists in twenty twenty four. I

1148
01:22:42.399 --> 01:22:45.119
feel like there's so many that I
could say. I feel like that's the

1149
01:22:45.239 --> 01:22:47.439
gist of what we've kind of been
trying to talk about. But let me

1150
01:22:47.560 --> 01:22:51.520
go with let me go with CJ
kafas good one. I don't think that's

1151
01:22:51.560 --> 01:22:55.520
who I would have picked. I
feel who would you have picked? I

1152
01:22:56.359 --> 01:22:59.119
want to see more a CJ.
I think the one that I would have

1153
01:22:59.159 --> 01:23:02.359
picked is Yander Suarez. I just
think that guy is going to be a

1154
01:23:02.520 --> 01:23:08.880
no doubt top one HERD pick in
six months. And yeah, like I

1155
01:23:09.039 --> 01:23:11.960
was just like watching that guy and
blown away. I was like, this

1156
01:23:12.079 --> 01:23:15.840
guy looks like the pretty boys in
the draft, and yet he's doing it

1157
01:23:15.920 --> 01:23:19.159
a double A and nobody cares,
like that's what I was going through doing

1158
01:23:19.359 --> 01:23:24.560
a kind of a top one hundred
rank exercise. He's like at forty for

1159
01:23:24.720 --> 01:23:28.800
me, Like I, I just
think that he's going to be there for

1160
01:23:29.119 --> 01:23:30.880
for a lot of people. Yeah, he's the other one. All right,

1161
01:23:31.000 --> 01:23:34.479
shit, I gotta do this for
you. Well bet that you're higher

1162
01:23:34.560 --> 01:23:39.199
on the most and I'm totally with
you. Is uh oh shout? What's

1163
01:23:39.439 --> 01:23:43.960
the dude who caught the soft line
drive from JDP in that jan Cel Luis?

1164
01:23:44.079 --> 01:23:45.920
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yan Cel Luise. I like

1165
01:23:46.039 --> 01:23:49.319
to I like to look at that
that guy's swing too. I think that

1166
01:23:49.520 --> 01:23:54.119
was a banger call on your part. Yeah. I would swap him in

1167
01:23:54.479 --> 01:23:59.800
JDP in most prospects, we can
swap the league and get something extra.

1168
01:24:00.119 --> 01:24:02.079
I know. I actually was just
trying to trade for Janzel, but we

1169
01:24:02.239 --> 01:24:05.079
didn't quite line up. And I
even though I really like him, I

1170
01:24:05.159 --> 01:24:08.600
couldn't do it. Couldn't do it. Okay, you're putting me on the

1171
01:24:08.640 --> 01:24:11.920
spot here. He's going to rise
up. I think Trevor Warner is going

1172
01:24:12.000 --> 01:24:15.039
to continue to crush in pro ball
and that he's going to be a top

1173
01:24:15.119 --> 01:24:21.119
one hundred fantasy prospects really soon,
Zach Decenzo, Graham Paully kind of like

1174
01:24:21.359 --> 01:24:25.279
ends up at the back end of
most public top one hundreds next year.

1175
01:24:25.439 --> 01:24:29.680
And I think that's one that that
you would pick to be a fast riser

1176
01:24:30.199 --> 01:24:34.520
cool I as far as pictures go, I think I think you're higher than

1177
01:24:34.600 --> 01:24:39.119
most on CJ. Culpepper And I'm
with you on it. I think that's

1178
01:24:39.159 --> 01:24:42.600
a really like that's one that I'm
not seeing talked about anywhere, and I

1179
01:24:42.880 --> 01:24:45.960
think he's pretty interesting. Do you
see the DA put him in their top

1180
01:24:46.039 --> 01:24:49.439
ten? Did you see they?
Well, maybe I just don't follow everybody

1181
01:24:49.439 --> 01:24:53.560
else because that's like, and that's
a pretty solid system. I think there's

1182
01:24:53.560 --> 01:24:57.520
some good guys on that system.
He still rastered a pretty low percentage.

1183
01:24:57.800 --> 01:24:59.920
Yeah, but I like, I
liked that pick a lot. That was

1184
01:25:00.079 --> 01:25:01.359
one when you picked, I was
like, hmm, that's a that's a

1185
01:25:01.439 --> 01:25:04.279
good one. So I see if
he needs, like he needs to just

1186
01:25:04.399 --> 01:25:09.399
like sharpen one of those secondaries to
get more miss more bats, I think,

1187
01:25:09.479 --> 01:25:11.960
and then he can he can be
all right in the uppers, I

1188
01:25:12.039 --> 01:25:15.520
think. And I wonder if it's
the curveball that did not get a very

1189
01:25:15.600 --> 01:25:18.560
favorable grade in BA, but I
think they might be selling them a little

1190
01:25:18.560 --> 01:25:23.039
short. I agree. I thought
that pitch actually had some utility, and

1191
01:25:23.079 --> 01:25:27.960
I think sometimes that one gets under
rated. There are a lot of that

1192
01:25:28.199 --> 01:25:31.720
you think are overrated. The issue
is I think I generally agree with you

1193
01:25:31.880 --> 01:25:36.800
on a lot of them. Let's
go. Well, the easy answer is

1194
01:25:38.039 --> 01:25:43.920
Colt Emerson that you think is overrated, like that you're your positioning of him.

1195
01:25:43.960 --> 01:25:46.119
I know you say you still like
him, but the way you've talked

1196
01:25:46.159 --> 01:25:53.159
about it is like, it's cool. I just don't give as high grades

1197
01:25:53.960 --> 01:26:01.399
for little whimps. You know.
That's a funny one. Yeah, I

1198
01:26:01.479 --> 01:26:04.239
don't agree with you that one,
But is that fair? I think that's

1199
01:26:04.239 --> 01:26:10.520
a fair one. That like,
I don't think I like Emerson, you

1200
01:26:10.680 --> 01:26:15.199
do, Okay, I don't think
he's overall like over it. I just

1201
01:26:15.279 --> 01:26:18.079
think maybe in some circles I'm not
quite as high on him. Yeah,

1202
01:26:18.239 --> 01:26:21.119
well then I'll go. I'll go
Mazerowski because I think you and I agree

1203
01:26:21.119 --> 01:26:26.960
on that. Yeah, he's a
believer and people aren't really living, aren't

1204
01:26:27.159 --> 01:26:30.359
really reckoning with that fact yet.
Yeah, that's fair. Take those all,

1205
01:26:30.399 --> 01:26:32.600
right, SVP. There you go. All right, Matt, should

1206
01:26:32.640 --> 01:26:35.600
we should we wrap this one up? All right? You know, best

1207
01:26:35.600 --> 01:26:42.359
of fu drafting pictures. Man,
it's tough. Matt is a pitching hater.

1208
01:26:42.720 --> 01:26:46.600
I'm gonna I'm gonna draft some opportunists. Just watch, just watch,

1209
01:26:46.640 --> 01:26:48.640
sit back. I'll show you.
I'll show you how to do this.

1210
01:26:48.840 --> 01:26:53.560
Matt in the show. Well,
feel free to uh follow me on Twitter

1211
01:26:53.720 --> 01:26:57.800
at pitching Specs. I did share
this Google sheet that has a list and

1212
01:26:58.000 --> 01:27:02.920
some gifts of arms we talked about
tonight and some commentary. Don't follow Matt

1213
01:27:03.039 --> 01:27:06.640
on Twitter because he's not there,
but you can catch him in the Dynasty

1214
01:27:06.800 --> 01:27:11.680
dugout chatting and uh, you know, hating on some guys and loving on

1215
01:27:11.800 --> 01:27:15.239
some others, but always bringing some
good intelligent thought to it. And uh

1216
01:27:15.359 --> 01:27:18.000
yeah, I don't know. I'm
not really sure what we're gonna do next

1217
01:27:18.039 --> 01:27:20.720
time, but we'll figure it out. Maybe we'll have a guest our big

1218
01:27:20.880 --> 01:27:25.640
Like off season homework is like kind
of done that kind of grinded a lot

1219
01:27:25.760 --> 01:27:28.960
here and I'm going to continue to
get into some pictures. I still have

1220
01:27:29.000 --> 01:27:30.960
about one hundred and fifty arms.
I just at least wanted to learn a

1221
01:27:31.000 --> 01:27:34.399
little bit about somehow read some reports. But uh but yeah, I don't

1222
01:27:34.439 --> 01:27:38.720
know. We'll have We'll let your
Kigo farmer take us out and we'll talk

1223
01:27:38.720 --> 01:27:44.039
to you next time. Be well
five miles an hour riding to his head.

1224
01:27:45.840 --> 01:27:50.119
You have it down first with the
lump bonius face, and on the

1225
01:27:50.399 --> 01:28:01.079
very next pitch he up and stole
second things with gretest me. He wasn't

1226
01:28:01.279 --> 01:28:08.039
born, He had bail uniform.