WEBVTT 1 00:00:15.560 --> 00:00:21.000 From Powerline Blog dot com and produced by Ricochet dot Com. This is the 2 00:00:21.079 --> 00:00:39.119 power Line Show with your host Steve Hayward. Welcome to another classic format episode 3 00:00:39.159 --> 00:00:43.600 of the power Line Show, a conversation, this time between me and Colonel 4 00:00:43.640 --> 00:00:47.840 Austin Bay. Now, this conversation is made necessary by the fact that the 5 00:00:47.920 --> 00:00:53.079 United States is suddenly engaged in two proxy wars, one against Russia in the 6 00:00:53.159 --> 00:00:59.159 Ukraine conflict and the other one essentially against Iran in the Israeli Hamas conflict going 7 00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:02.920 on right now. And then lurking in the background, of course, is 8 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:07.879 the threat of China, which is arming themselves rapidly and who knows what their 9 00:01:07.920 --> 00:01:11.879 intentions and strategy are. But there are a few people better placed to unpack 10 00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:15.120 all this than Colonel Bay, who is one of the proprietors of the Strategy 11 00:01:15.120 --> 00:01:19.319 Page and a weekly columnist for Creator Syndicate, And in the show notes I've 12 00:01:19.319 --> 00:01:23.359 linked to his column from last week that goes over the landscape of these proxy 13 00:01:23.439 --> 00:01:27.599 wars and what needs to be done, what we should be thinking about, 14 00:01:27.760 --> 00:01:32.439 and how serious the entire scene is. And so, without further ado, 15 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:38.799 let's get going with Colonel Bay. All right, Austin let's talk about America's 16 00:01:40.560 --> 00:01:44.920 two or maybe three proxy wars, depending on how you size up the field. 17 00:01:45.480 --> 00:01:49.159 Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Iran, which were obviously implicated in and 18 00:01:49.200 --> 00:01:53.799 then the China question, which is on everybody's mind. So let's start with 19 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:59.599 Ukraine in Russia, which was the main focus of our attention to war until 20 00:01:59.719 --> 00:02:05.599 over seven. But I guess my opening question is I guess I'll just jump 21 00:02:05.640 --> 00:02:08.919 to this one. Can Ukraine win or does Russia really have the material and 22 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:14.199 manpower advantages that over time make it impossible for Ukraine to win? What do 23 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:17.840 you think? How? Well, look, defining victory is difficult in almost 24 00:02:17.879 --> 00:02:27.719 every single war. Now what constitutes winning. The Union beat the Confederacy beat 25 00:02:27.759 --> 00:02:34.719 it badly in eighteen sixty five, but there was a resistance of a type 26 00:02:35.159 --> 00:02:38.599 that went on for another century, so you know was there was? And 27 00:02:38.960 --> 00:02:45.719 I've used that in class as an example because the students think about that and 28 00:02:45.759 --> 00:02:50.960 then see, oh, I get it. The impoverishment in the south of 29 00:02:51.039 --> 00:03:00.400 the resistant segregation and the like Ukraine has made. Zelensky has made it his 30 00:03:00.599 --> 00:03:09.240 mission to recover all territory that was Ukrainian territory prior to twenty fourteen prior to 31 00:03:09.439 --> 00:03:16.719 February twenty fourteen, and Russia could claim it's got a win if it retains 32 00:03:17.280 --> 00:03:23.919 any piece of Ukraine, especially Crimea. But at the same time, look 33 00:03:23.960 --> 00:03:30.560 at the horrendous losses Russia has suffered. I know some of it is estimated, 34 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:36.840 Steve, but there's enough evidence out there on the battlefield for the destruction 35 00:03:37.919 --> 00:03:46.439 of scores of those Battalion Task Groups BTG's tact tactical groups that they had on 36 00:03:46.520 --> 00:03:51.879 their order of battle in February of twenty twenty two. And the other thing, 37 00:03:51.919 --> 00:03:58.639 it's not just the decimation of their manpower, but the exposure of how 38 00:03:58.919 --> 00:04:05.719 shoddy many of their weapons systems are. Russia has suffered a huge loss in 39 00:04:05.759 --> 00:04:11.879 that sense. But if I know where you're going, I think you're going 40 00:04:11.960 --> 00:04:17.160 back territory. Can Ukraine retake all that territory. I'm not sure it can. 41 00:04:17.319 --> 00:04:24.199 I hate to say that it's because of the Russian's ability to dig in 42 00:04:24.439 --> 00:04:31.000 and force a static World War One type type battle, at least on the 43 00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:42.360 on the Crimean peninsula. There are ways that and I've heard the discussions the 44 00:04:42.439 --> 00:04:47.720 creativity of uh creative ideas of be able to isolate the Crimean peninsula and essentially 45 00:04:47.759 --> 00:04:58.399 starve the Russian forces out, possibly, But the nuclear sort of damocles also 46 00:04:58.560 --> 00:05:03.639 swings over this. When does Putin decide? I think that's a good metaphor. 47 00:05:03.839 --> 00:05:11.279 It is the sort of damocles Putin decide to shoot a demonstration nuke or 48 00:05:11.360 --> 00:05:18.040 actually use a tactical warhead on a Ukrainian target and bad pun coming. But 49 00:05:18.079 --> 00:05:24.000 once the international fallout, how does NATO respond? What does Ukraine do? 50 00:05:24.800 --> 00:05:30.279 Uh? And that's it that could happen? Is there a negotiation process to 51 00:05:30.360 --> 00:05:34.560 avoid that? I certainly hope so. But again, can Ukraine win? 52 00:05:34.680 --> 00:05:40.000 Does some degree? Ukraine has one? And I know that that there are 53 00:05:40.000 --> 00:05:44.480 a lot of teeth gnashing. If you say that they have won by stopping 54 00:05:44.839 --> 00:05:50.040 Russia's Blitzkreek and by exposing all the weaknesses in the Russian system, I'll say 55 00:05:50.079 --> 00:05:59.000 the corrupt Putin olugark Gark system. Russia still retains a great deal of combat 56 00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:05.040 power. The issue they have to face two is do they want two new 57 00:06:05.759 --> 00:06:12.120 provinces in Ukraine at the expense of China taking Siberia? And I know that 58 00:06:12.240 --> 00:06:17.439 sounds far out, but it's not far out right. I don't think that's 59 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:20.560 far out at all. I wrote a problem. Well, let's just say 60 00:06:20.600 --> 00:06:26.839 I wrote a column about that, I want to say, four or five 61 00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:31.560 years ago. Some of it had worked in with my China chapter in my 62 00:06:31.720 --> 00:06:40.000 last book, Cocktails from Hell, and I got some very curious email responses 63 00:06:40.079 --> 00:06:43.680 about that. Babe, what are you smoking? I said, I'm not 64 00:06:43.720 --> 00:06:49.399 smoking anything. I know what the Chinese say about Siberia, and also the 65 00:06:49.439 --> 00:06:55.560 promise that the Bolsheviks made that they'd give it back what the Tsar took, 66 00:06:55.800 --> 00:07:04.319 and that hasn't happened. And it's a treasure chest of mineral wealth and energy 67 00:07:04.360 --> 00:07:12.319 wealth. It's such something that the Chinese Communist Party covets. Yeah, all 68 00:07:12.399 --> 00:07:15.959 right, So the next question is what do you think US policy should be 69 00:07:16.040 --> 00:07:18.959 about this? I mean, I you know, I don't know tactics and 70 00:07:19.000 --> 00:07:23.279 strategy that well, it's not my specialty, but it seemed to me that 71 00:07:23.319 --> 00:07:29.759 the Biden administration has had a rather halting and hesitant disposition towards arming Ukraine. 72 00:07:29.800 --> 00:07:30.680 You know, we keep saying, no, we're not going to give you 73 00:07:30.759 --> 00:07:33.480 in one tank's okay, we'll give you one tanks. No, you shouldn't 74 00:07:33.480 --> 00:07:36.839 have f sixteens, okay, we'll give you sixteens and finally, you know, 75 00:07:36.920 --> 00:07:42.360 a couple months ago cluster bombs. And you know, it looks to 76 00:07:42.399 --> 00:07:46.199 me at times like the Biden administration is reluctant, perhaps to provoking Russia to 77 00:07:46.279 --> 00:07:49.759 use it a tactical nuke as you mentioned, or for other reasons, is 78 00:07:49.959 --> 00:07:55.480 slow to provide the kind of weaponry that it would allow Ukraine to actually push 79 00:07:55.560 --> 00:07:59.120 Russia out. How do you size it up? And what do you think 80 00:07:59.120 --> 00:08:01.480 we should be doing? I mean the criticism you hear from certain people on 81 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:05.079 the right of course as well, we're giving him a blank check, which 82 00:08:05.120 --> 00:08:07.879 we're not doing. But it is expensive, So what do you think we 83 00:08:07.879 --> 00:08:13.040 should be doing? Well? Just remember the Biden administration's first reaction was to 84 00:08:13.319 --> 00:08:18.519 offer Zelenski a place to flee to, and he comes back with one of 85 00:08:18.560 --> 00:08:22.800 the you know, I'm paraphrasing it, but the equipped that says, uh, 86 00:08:22.920 --> 00:08:30.600 you know, uh, I don't need a transportation, I need ammunition. 87 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:33.600 You know, I don't need a taxi. You know, I need 88 00:08:33.639 --> 00:08:41.919 tanks. There have been three or four riffs on on what Zelensky said uh, 89 00:08:41.960 --> 00:08:46.559 And that's indicative of the way. I know this is another subject. 90 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:54.759 But the Biden administration mismanagement in foreign policy, and I would say it even 91 00:08:54.799 --> 00:09:05.720 applies uh domestically uh uh. The Afghanistan debacle. It was absolutely unnecessary. 92 00:09:07.240 --> 00:09:13.080 I'm not going to go off on it. But a non combatant evacuation operation 93 00:09:13.600 --> 00:09:20.840 a NEO. Uh. I don't say this in any special way. There's 94 00:09:20.879 --> 00:09:26.720 a joint pub publication that tells you how to do it. I've been involved 95 00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:31.679 in one exercise I helped, I helped plan plan one. That was another 96 00:09:33.039 --> 00:09:35.759 another exercise, and I know how to plan one myself. But I had 97 00:09:35.799 --> 00:09:43.360 a regular army buddy who put together with a small team uh a NEO to 98 00:09:43.039 --> 00:09:54.039 extract uh uh, diplomats and American uh personnel in nationals from Kinshasha in the 99 00:09:54.200 --> 00:09:58.159 Democratic Republic of Congo. And he put it together in two days. Of 100 00:09:58.159 --> 00:10:03.840 course, he had Pentagon backing him up. Nominally the State Department was in 101 00:10:03.960 --> 00:10:11.279 charge. But when you've got Air Force aircraft and a Navy amphibious warfare ship 102 00:10:11.679 --> 00:10:18.360 heading down to be off the Cameroon coast, it's really a military operation. 103 00:10:20.000 --> 00:10:22.919 And they messed that up by you know all, we don't want to look 104 00:10:22.960 --> 00:10:28.360 too strong, No, you want to look strong, And he didn't I 105 00:10:28.679 --> 00:10:35.960 didn't do that in the opening phases, figured that Russia was just going to 106 00:10:35.039 --> 00:10:39.480 run over them. And they even made a statement again I'm paraphrasing, so 107 00:10:39.519 --> 00:10:46.000 we try to hold down on a crank email. Is that you know that 108 00:10:46.960 --> 00:10:50.799 about a Russian incursion or limited incursion or whateverever it was, Well, the 109 00:10:50.879 --> 00:10:56.759 Russians had planned and we saw it executed an all out invasion. They did 110 00:10:56.799 --> 00:11:07.480 not know how to conduct UH a operational combined arms operational UH operational offensive using 111 00:11:07.480 --> 00:11:13.279 the military terms there. But they had airborne in it. They ran tanks 112 00:11:13.320 --> 00:11:20.000 in but they didn't they didn't have You never want to use tanks without mechanized 113 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:28.039 infantry and infantry supports combined UH, combined arms and UH. The Ukrainians had 114 00:11:28.039 --> 00:11:31.639 been armed in some of this. You've got to give credit to the Trump 115 00:11:31.720 --> 00:11:41.399 administration and and Great Britain. We had UH and through Poland advisors to UH 116 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:48.159 improve the Ukrainian army and had had sent them javelin missiles and they picked up 117 00:11:48.200 --> 00:11:54.679 some of these modern more modern UH man carried anti tank weapons like in laws 118 00:11:56.399 --> 00:12:00.879 and the like. And then when the Russians just come in there, armored 119 00:12:00.919 --> 00:12:07.159 columns come in UH on on those roads. They knocked the lead tank off, 120 00:12:09.080 --> 00:12:11.320 knock one of the rear tanks off and force them off the road. 121 00:12:11.480 --> 00:12:18.159 And then there were very few. Uh. I saw a lot of video. 122 00:12:18.200 --> 00:12:20.120 I'm going to back up just a second. I saw a lot of 123 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:24.919 video right right as you know, the first first two weeks, and very 124 00:12:24.000 --> 00:12:30.360 in very few of the videos did I see the infantry and the armored personnel 125 00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:35.679 carriers deploy when at to support the taks. Most of them stayed in. 126 00:12:37.279 --> 00:12:41.279 It seemed to be they were staying inside their armored personnel carrier and even pulling 127 00:12:41.360 --> 00:12:48.399 back. And that's not the way you fight. Uh yeah, I'll give 128 00:12:48.440 --> 00:12:52.120 you a history history on this. One of the best ways to teach, 129 00:12:54.000 --> 00:13:01.759 uh, show a class or even young soldiers how how to how to do 130 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:11.399 it is study what fourth Armored Divisions Combat Command Reserve did in attacking the Battle 131 00:13:11.399 --> 00:13:18.600 of the Bulge. The operational commander was named Lieutenant Colonel Creighton Abrams and it 132 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:22.840 was the no it's I mean, you can't make this stuff up. It's 133 00:13:24.039 --> 00:13:30.399 And then the infantry Armored Infantry Battalion commander was yours Jacques. Both of them 134 00:13:30.720 --> 00:13:37.720 extraordinary leaders and what they did, they took a company from the Tank Battalion 135 00:13:37.039 --> 00:13:41.360 and a company from the Armored Infantry Battalion. Put the two captains commanding those 136 00:13:41.360 --> 00:13:45.679 together and said, you guys are a team, B team and C team, 137 00:13:46.000 --> 00:13:52.559 and they of course, this is the way US and British armored forces 138 00:13:52.600 --> 00:14:00.720 were fighting in Western Europe after you know, the breakout from A from Normandy. 139 00:14:01.000 --> 00:14:03.279 That's what we were doing then, and that's what we do now on 140 00:14:03.320 --> 00:14:09.559 an even more sophisticated and dangerous UH and is in the fancy words multi valent 141 00:14:09.720 --> 00:14:15.320 battle field. And you see when multi valent, Look look what the Ukrainians 142 00:14:15.320 --> 00:14:18.840 have done with armed drones. But there are ways they see the tank. 143 00:14:18.919 --> 00:14:24.559 The tank isn't dead. If you understand combined arms warfare and the Russian show 144 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:28.960 they couldn't do it. That's what I mean that there's a loss here on 145 00:14:30.240 --> 00:14:37.559 the Russians part. It's a loss of prestige. And plus they seem to 146 00:14:37.600 --> 00:14:46.039 have lost appear to have lost a lot of their better UH middle grade commanders 147 00:14:46.120 --> 00:14:54.039 because they don't teach their subordinates to UH. They are reluctant to give their 148 00:14:54.039 --> 00:15:01.159 subordinates the initiative to fight the immediate tactical battle. Therefore, a lot of 149 00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:05.080 Russian officers have been killed. That's not a change from World War Two at 150 00:15:05.080 --> 00:15:09.519 all. Let's see. Yeah, so the question, I'm curious about it, 151 00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:16.000 and then we'll switch to the I know it was a reluctant I got 152 00:15:16.080 --> 00:15:22.559 off on talking about the military details, but they're relevant definitely to the quote 153 00:15:22.639 --> 00:15:28.039 unquote political political decisions. We should have sent. First of all, we 154 00:15:28.039 --> 00:15:35.120 could have cascaded F sixteen's out of American reserves and answer the reserves of some 155 00:15:35.159 --> 00:15:43.679 of our NATO allies immediately. And the Biden administration even slowed down the passage 156 00:15:43.799 --> 00:15:54.000 of mid twenty nine's that were still in the arsenals of several NATO nations that 157 00:15:54.519 --> 00:15:58.320 were warsaw back nations. They could have passed those on down immediately and they 158 00:15:58.360 --> 00:16:03.159 didn't do it. And air power is important to combine to arms warfare, 159 00:16:03.600 --> 00:16:08.559 it really is, right. Yeah, a question I'm curious about. You 160 00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:14.639 mentioned the Russian seem to have forgotten combined arms operations. Does Russia have the 161 00:16:14.679 --> 00:16:18.559 equivalent of our service academies like West Point or I mean, how do they 162 00:16:18.679 --> 00:16:26.279 educate the military they know? And I'm trying to remember the one that I'm 163 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:37.440 sorry they had a really creative military thinker in the late seventies and early eighties 164 00:16:37.879 --> 00:16:48.279 who developed some concepts of his trying to institute bring them in to the Soviet 165 00:16:48.399 --> 00:16:52.120 army. And I can't remember his name, but he was a general and 166 00:16:52.200 --> 00:17:00.000 also a professor. So look, Russia's got incredibly brilliant people that the world's 167 00:17:00.080 --> 00:17:07.319 right. Chess players, mathematicians, you know, musicians, artists, you 168 00:17:07.400 --> 00:17:15.799 know, But there they're governing system just does not encourage free thinking at all. 169 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:23.960 Yeah, that's unfortunately, Yeah, what's sorry? Yeah, that's right. 170 00:17:25.200 --> 00:17:27.480 Well I'm tempted to half joke that most of them are in New York 171 00:17:27.519 --> 00:17:30.960 and Silicon Valley, but who knows. Uh, Well, let's shift gears 172 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:34.079 to the Middle East. So, and I don't know where to start or 173 00:17:34.079 --> 00:17:40.440 finish. I mean, I think we should think about what intelligence failures took 174 00:17:40.440 --> 00:17:44.079 place with Israel and the United States. Wall Street Journal has a story out 175 00:17:44.079 --> 00:17:48.880 here midweek that the United States intelligence agencies quit spying on or trying to track 176 00:17:48.920 --> 00:17:56.640 Hamas after nine to eleven, which seems irresponsible, and that's stupid. But 177 00:17:56.680 --> 00:18:00.480 then I guess the big question is strategic one. It seems unlikely to me 178 00:18:00.839 --> 00:18:06.519 that Hamas would have launched this attack unless they and the Iranians had a larger 179 00:18:06.559 --> 00:18:08.759 grand strategy in mind, whether that's opening the second front of the North with 180 00:18:08.839 --> 00:18:15.640 Hesbola at a certain point, whether it involves more direct Iranian involvement, which 181 00:18:15.680 --> 00:18:18.200 we already see the hints of it with you know, the Houthis, as 182 00:18:18.240 --> 00:18:22.960 you mentioned in the article the other day, Houthi's shooting rockets over our ships. 183 00:18:23.039 --> 00:18:27.000 Whether our ships are trying to intercept directed in israela that you know they 184 00:18:27.000 --> 00:18:33.440 could theoretically overwhelm both Iron Dome and our own ammunition and our missile anti missile 185 00:18:33.440 --> 00:18:36.920 frigates and so forth. So how do you size up the strategic scene? 186 00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:41.039 Go ahead and give us three or four of your main observations and concerns about 187 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:45.440 this before we get into some of the nitty gritty of subduing Gaza. Jim 188 00:18:45.519 --> 00:18:49.640 Donnegan and I a strategy page. They recorded a podcast, i'll say ten 189 00:18:49.759 --> 00:18:56.240 days ago about the intelligence failure, and both of us were having to you 190 00:18:56.279 --> 00:19:03.079 know, we don't all we've got is we hope good guesses right now. 191 00:19:03.480 --> 00:19:07.319 But it's clear that the Israelis, I think that this is clear, and 192 00:19:07.359 --> 00:19:12.640 the Israelis are saying this in public themselves, that they had their guard down 193 00:19:14.279 --> 00:19:18.880 at the local level, at the very local level. I'm not saying they 194 00:19:18.920 --> 00:19:29.480 didn't have their electronic intelligence going. But if you take everything down to face 195 00:19:29.559 --> 00:19:38.079 to face in a area that you have blocked off to signals intelligence made sure 196 00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:44.839 that there are no bugs or the like, we're back to again face to 197 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:51.200 face. Nothing is digital, nothing's recorded. If anything's recorded, it's on 198 00:19:51.359 --> 00:20:03.200 hand, done by hand, and that you can disappear from the digital and 199 00:20:03.319 --> 00:20:12.039 electronic surveillance. That it's absolutely necessary, but it's not complete, and you 200 00:20:12.160 --> 00:20:18.960 can't think that it's complete. This is why you need human intelligence, human 201 00:20:18.359 --> 00:20:23.400 as it's called, in other words, a human spies. Now, the 202 00:20:23.440 --> 00:20:30.400 one thing that I mentioned I hope this makes it in that strategy page podcast 203 00:20:30.640 --> 00:20:37.880 is if you've studied and I have the Japanese deception plan that kicks in in 204 00:20:38.000 --> 00:20:48.480 late August or early September of nineteen forty one, the Japanese lead British and 205 00:20:48.519 --> 00:20:52.480 American intelligence to believe, yeah, they're going to do something, but they're 206 00:20:52.519 --> 00:20:56.599 going south. They're going to the Dutch East Indies because they would have grabbed 207 00:20:56.599 --> 00:21:03.759 the oil. They want to be able to control le oil and this was 208 00:21:03.799 --> 00:21:11.960 something of any fix in the US Navy intelligence. Also what passed for the 209 00:21:15.240 --> 00:21:18.079 joint operations between the Army and Navy. Remember that was the you know, 210 00:21:18.200 --> 00:21:22.680 war department in the Navy department. We didn't have a Department of Defense. 211 00:21:22.759 --> 00:21:33.799 But this is what our best military minds thought, and also it was ratified 212 00:21:34.279 --> 00:21:42.519 by our politicians. They wanted to think that, and the Japanese made sure 213 00:21:42.559 --> 00:21:49.319 that the British there in Hong Kong thought that. Of course, that wasn't 214 00:21:49.319 --> 00:21:55.279 the plan at all. They were going to go after Pearl Harbor and try 215 00:21:55.319 --> 00:22:00.920 to knock America out of the war with one heavy surprise attack. But the 216 00:22:00.039 --> 00:22:08.599 deception plan was something that fed into expectations. Hamas seems to have done that 217 00:22:08.680 --> 00:22:15.119 because the Israelis thought Harmas was and this is me coming up with a term 218 00:22:15.160 --> 00:22:21.480 mellowing they wanted to develop and the like. In other words, they were 219 00:22:21.559 --> 00:22:33.079 feeding an expectation. Yet the terrorist mass murderers that founded Hamas and that commanded 220 00:22:33.759 --> 00:22:41.279 they're still committed to the eradication of Israel. And I did read an English 221 00:22:41.279 --> 00:22:49.039 translation of part of the Hamas Charter years ago. They I think it's fair 222 00:22:49.720 --> 00:22:56.480 for a Jew to say they want to eradicate Jews is what Hamas. Look, 223 00:22:56.519 --> 00:22:59.799 I'm not going to you know, I don't have it in front of 224 00:22:59.880 --> 00:23:04.279 me. I'm just just just telling you. I mean, it's they're they're 225 00:23:04.319 --> 00:23:12.880 definitely committed to the complete eradication uh of Israel and they believe that, and 226 00:23:14.240 --> 00:23:18.519 heavens, I read the interview with one of the senior Hamas leaders who was 227 00:23:18.359 --> 00:23:22.400 a sconced somewhere in Lebanon, and he says, you know, we're justified 228 00:23:22.400 --> 00:23:30.640 in doing anything, you know, because we're we're the oppressed. Were They 229 00:23:30.799 --> 00:23:37.079 fit right in with the crypto Marxist you know, ideology of oppression and the 230 00:23:37.119 --> 00:23:41.880 oppressed, the oppressed are always you know, justified in doing whatever they want, 231 00:23:41.920 --> 00:23:45.519 you know, a day of rage and that kind of thing. So, 232 00:23:45.039 --> 00:23:48.279 uh well, I mean, we we always have this problem of not 233 00:23:48.359 --> 00:23:52.480 taking seriously what people like Hitler say or what the Iotola say, and we 234 00:23:52.519 --> 00:23:56.960 should take you know, when they say they want to destroy Israel and destroy 235 00:23:57.039 --> 00:24:00.440 the Great Satan, that's us, right, We're the big you know, 236 00:24:00.480 --> 00:24:03.319 we should take them seriously and not be all sentimental foolish people. But in 237 00:24:03.359 --> 00:24:07.880 particular, I mean, just you know, you mentioned a strategic deception. 238 00:24:10.079 --> 00:24:11.839 Yeah. I mean with all those tunnels they're dug under Gaza and all the 239 00:24:11.880 --> 00:24:15.720 rest of that's pretty easy to imagine meetings of cells and everything's done on paper 240 00:24:15.839 --> 00:24:19.279 so as not to have an electronic paper trail. But on the other hand, 241 00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:23.160 you know, as we know, we've heard stories about this, the 242 00:24:23.720 --> 00:24:29.720 Hamas terrorists who came over the border in those paragliders. That's not something you 243 00:24:29.759 --> 00:24:30.960 just pick up in thirty minutes, you know, it takes a little bit 244 00:24:32.000 --> 00:24:36.799 of practice. And apparently they trained up in Lebanon. Well you somebody should 245 00:24:36.799 --> 00:24:37.920 have seen them doing that. It should have been saying, gosh, why 246 00:24:37.920 --> 00:24:44.640 are a whole lot of Palestinians people coming from Gaza apparently learning how to fly 247 00:24:44.759 --> 00:24:48.000 paragliders. Are they opening up paragliding resort in Gaza? Probably not. I 248 00:24:48.039 --> 00:24:52.480 mean that seems to me like something that somebody should have said, something's up. 249 00:24:52.640 --> 00:24:56.279 Why are they doing that? Can't be good? Well, it's you 250 00:24:56.319 --> 00:25:04.240 know, that's Hindslight's twenty twenty. It's and you know they're Palestinian. Uh 251 00:25:04.759 --> 00:25:12.599 camps area is still in uh uh uh Lebanon. It's it's hard to track 252 00:25:14.200 --> 00:25:18.880 five or six men that get on a boat in Gaza and then I get 253 00:25:18.920 --> 00:25:23.839 off a boat in Lebanon, and that's you could have sent them up there. 254 00:25:25.000 --> 00:25:26.960 Increments. I'm just making this up, you know, just telling you 255 00:25:27.000 --> 00:25:32.079 that you want to you want to do the training and have the training, 256 00:25:32.759 --> 00:25:36.759 but you don't want to make it look like it's a huge You want to 257 00:25:36.759 --> 00:25:40.279 make it look like these are some guys on vacation, see paragliding you. 258 00:25:40.599 --> 00:25:45.559 So, yeah, okay, maybe that works. Sure, yeah, but 259 00:25:45.759 --> 00:25:51.960 it pays to be paranoid in the Middle East. And sorry, I'm sorry, 260 00:25:52.039 --> 00:25:55.359 say again, Stee that lost you there. Well I just say it, 261 00:25:55.799 --> 00:25:57.000 yeah, I know, we're having a couple of hiccuffs here. Uh. 262 00:25:57.640 --> 00:26:00.440 I think it pays to be paranoid in the Middle East. I think 263 00:26:00.440 --> 00:26:04.759 we should have known that before now. But all right, let's talk about 264 00:26:04.759 --> 00:26:08.960 some of the you know, the nitty gritty on the ground here, gosh. 265 00:26:10.079 --> 00:26:11.400 I mean, you know, we know from our own experience in Rack 266 00:26:11.480 --> 00:26:15.640 and the subduing Felujah and other places that this is some of the most difficult 267 00:26:15.640 --> 00:26:22.359 fighting in urban settings that you can do. And so, uh, how 268 00:26:22.359 --> 00:26:25.000 do you think Israel's doing. What's your advice to them? What what are 269 00:26:25.039 --> 00:26:29.079 the and what's the sensible strategy here. I don't really have a good feel 270 00:26:29.119 --> 00:26:38.799 for it. There were several good tactical studies of the US Army fighting in 271 00:26:40.359 --> 00:26:48.400 UH cities at the U in the latter days, latter months of World War 272 00:26:48.440 --> 00:26:56.319 two UH in in in German cities UH and also in towns, and it's 273 00:26:56.480 --> 00:26:59.200 if you could, you couldn't go around them. You were gonna have to 274 00:27:00.079 --> 00:27:06.400 UH, You're going to have to fight the Nazi forces that were hold up 275 00:27:06.440 --> 00:27:15.200 in these in these areas. And the photos UH tell the story. Lots 276 00:27:15.240 --> 00:27:22.400 of artillery, lots of bombing. There was very little international political blowback or 277 00:27:22.519 --> 00:27:29.480 or cries in the United States about blowing up these German uh uh German cities, 278 00:27:30.119 --> 00:27:34.720 but the artillery and he also found out that you know, you don't 279 00:27:34.759 --> 00:27:41.279 want the tank to lead in, but there's nothing like a tank for blowing 280 00:27:41.319 --> 00:27:45.799 a hole in a in a building. So you don't have to waste infantry 281 00:27:45.839 --> 00:27:51.079 going up there to UH to look for look for snipers. But the infantry 282 00:27:51.759 --> 00:27:56.839 stays back and keeps tries to keep In that case, Germans with panzer fausts 283 00:27:56.920 --> 00:28:03.960 or pans or shreks, they're and I personal carried and I tank weapons from 284 00:28:03.160 --> 00:28:07.160 getting a cheap shot at the tank, but you know, the tanks of 285 00:28:07.240 --> 00:28:14.400 mobile pill box in that sense, we you can see that. And I 286 00:28:14.400 --> 00:28:18.400 know the Israelis really are good at this because they've they had to get good 287 00:28:18.599 --> 00:28:27.599 when they fighting mostly I'm thinking of the nineteen eighty two conflict in Lebanon, 288 00:28:27.960 --> 00:28:33.559 but you could see those tactics being used by the Iraqis with some American support 289 00:28:34.079 --> 00:28:42.319 in the battle for Mosul. Again. You but we were also able to 290 00:28:42.400 --> 00:28:52.480 provide for the Iraqis attack helicopter support and you know, pinpoint as close as 291 00:28:52.480 --> 00:28:55.960 it can be pinpoint when you drop a two thousand pounds jay down, but 292 00:28:56.160 --> 00:29:00.359 the joint direct attack munition, it's two thousand pound bomb that is extremely precise 293 00:29:02.359 --> 00:29:10.200 on and when it dotonates and Mosoula started to look like some of those German 294 00:29:10.240 --> 00:29:18.839 cities or you know, just absolute devastation. And it's the choice is are 295 00:29:18.839 --> 00:29:26.480 you going to lose your own soldiers to cheap shots and ambush. And one 296 00:29:26.480 --> 00:29:33.119 of the things in Iraq that was this was something the Tadamists tried to do 297 00:29:33.200 --> 00:29:37.359 when they're in the height of the insurgency in two thousand and four, in 298 00:29:37.359 --> 00:29:41.359 two thousand and five, and I pulled a tour in two thousand and four 299 00:29:41.880 --> 00:29:45.480 as a plans officer with Multinational Corps, so I know well about this. 300 00:29:47.079 --> 00:29:53.480 They would rig some of the buildings with high explosives so that if some marines 301 00:29:53.599 --> 00:30:00.519 or army soldiers go in there, suddenly the entire neighborhood I was up, 302 00:30:00.960 --> 00:30:04.960 and uh, you know, you could always I suppose they would try to 303 00:30:04.960 --> 00:30:08.160 blame it on the United States for doing it. But I saw a couple 304 00:30:08.200 --> 00:30:12.160 of the videos where some of these were triggered, and we'd figured out that 305 00:30:12.319 --> 00:30:18.680 they were triggered, and uh that they were, that they were heavily booby 306 00:30:18.720 --> 00:30:23.759 trapped, and there were some there was one that we managed to find figure 307 00:30:23.759 --> 00:30:29.559 out in a way to electronically detonate some of them, so we didn't have 308 00:30:29.599 --> 00:30:33.799 to even send troops in. But they had been the intel had picked up 309 00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:42.119 that this is what the uh, the gorillas, the sodomists as I used 310 00:30:42.160 --> 00:30:47.000 to call them, uh had the plant. Well, yeah, there are 311 00:30:47.039 --> 00:30:51.480 other other names, but that was one that's got a laugh a laugh, 312 00:30:51.599 --> 00:30:59.079 It got it'd got it got a laugh. It's firepower. But then you 313 00:30:59.160 --> 00:31:03.519 have the media blowback, Oh you're killing you know you're killing and you may 314 00:31:03.559 --> 00:31:10.920 well be. But that's one of the pinous things about Amas is just like 315 00:31:10.960 --> 00:31:15.799 Saddam Hussein, human shields. You know, they fight, but you know 316 00:31:15.839 --> 00:31:21.720 they they use their own kids as as human shields. That's well, I'm 317 00:31:21.720 --> 00:31:25.359 sure you caught the blowback. Well, I'm going to say, I'm sure 318 00:31:25.359 --> 00:31:26.599 you caught the blowback the last few days. That is, you know, 319 00:31:26.640 --> 00:31:32.920 comically, you know, comically stupid about Oh, the Israelis turned off the 320 00:31:32.960 --> 00:31:37.160 internet and shut down telecommunications in Gaza. Isn't that terrible? Well, you've 321 00:31:37.240 --> 00:31:38.640 just given the reason why they would do that, right, just you know, 322 00:31:38.920 --> 00:31:42.200 at least complicated trying to set off remote control bombs and so forth with 323 00:31:42.319 --> 00:31:47.519 cell phones and whatnot. And why this is beyond the grasp of ordinary people 324 00:31:47.599 --> 00:31:51.519 is beyond me. But that's where we are, right, all kinds of 325 00:31:51.559 --> 00:31:55.920 stupidity that I've heard. I've heard this. This is not original with me 326 00:31:56.079 --> 00:32:00.720 by by any any means. I mean, but I've heard I heard this. 327 00:32:00.960 --> 00:32:07.079 And in the seventies, you know, from Vietnam veterans. I know 328 00:32:07.200 --> 00:32:12.200 a lot of them, Americans have seen so many war movies or something like 329 00:32:12.240 --> 00:32:15.519 that, they think the war movies are real and they're not. You know, 330 00:32:17.279 --> 00:32:22.240 it's far worse than any war movie could ever capture, even though you 331 00:32:22.279 --> 00:32:28.359 know there's a few out there, the World War One ones that come close 332 00:32:28.400 --> 00:32:31.880 to it. But it's uh, it's you. They've got this. Oh 333 00:32:32.039 --> 00:32:36.519 why can't we talk about it? You know because in the movies, everybody 334 00:32:36.519 --> 00:32:39.920 stops and everybody talks about it. See, and that's that's not the way 335 00:32:39.960 --> 00:32:44.799 it is. It's not the way it is at all. Yeah, So 336 00:32:44.839 --> 00:32:50.039 what do you what's your assessment of Iran and what their disposition is, what 337 00:32:50.079 --> 00:32:52.160 their grand strategy may be here? Do you expect them to get more directly 338 00:32:52.200 --> 00:32:57.240 involved? Do you think Hesbelow is going to launch a huge rocket barage and 339 00:32:57.279 --> 00:33:00.519 open up a second front? What? What do you think might be in 340 00:33:00.559 --> 00:33:07.680 prospect here? All right? Had this discussion again with we didn't do this 341 00:33:07.720 --> 00:33:12.559 on a podcast, but Jim Donnegan, a Strategy Page editor, and I 342 00:33:13.680 --> 00:33:17.960 he and I've co authored the Quick and Dirty Guide to War series years ago. 343 00:33:20.559 --> 00:33:30.000 There's one here's here's one analysis that may have some credibility. Iran really 344 00:33:30.039 --> 00:33:35.039 doesn't want to get into it because they've got so much to lose, but 345 00:33:35.160 --> 00:33:39.319 they've got so much to gain, even they may have already gained. This 346 00:33:40.200 --> 00:33:47.839 is they've scotched, at least temporarily the Israeli Saldi Rapro small. They've made 347 00:33:47.880 --> 00:33:55.680 it more difficult for the golf Arab states to cooperate with Israel. They've scotched 348 00:33:55.960 --> 00:34:00.960 the rapro schmall that was going on between Turkey and Israel. And I mean 349 00:34:01.599 --> 00:34:07.079 here, well, no, that's that's something that I know we got off 350 00:34:07.119 --> 00:34:14.920 on a Strategy Page podcast, but that's been going on slowly for the last 351 00:34:15.119 --> 00:34:22.440 two years. Despite the stupid things that a Erdwan sense and I address that 352 00:34:22.519 --> 00:34:28.480 I wrote my column this week was about air to Wan. I used it 353 00:34:28.519 --> 00:34:32.239 also because it was the twenty ninth was one hundredth anniversary of the founding of 354 00:34:32.239 --> 00:34:42.239 a Turkish Republic by Kamal At of Turk and I didn't I did for a 355 00:34:42.440 --> 00:34:46.880 biography of At a Turk that focused on his military career that was published in 356 00:34:47.519 --> 00:34:55.039 twenty eleven. And aired Ian has out to undermine the Chemalist, the Kimalist 357 00:34:55.079 --> 00:34:59.119 state, and it's going to be you know, it's his ego state, 358 00:34:59.400 --> 00:35:04.760 you know, the it's an ego state for erdo Is. But and it's 359 00:35:04.800 --> 00:35:08.199 come out you know sant Jamas is not a terrorist organization and the like. 360 00:35:08.639 --> 00:35:16.400 But at the same time when I and I condemn him for grand standing about 361 00:35:16.400 --> 00:35:22.880 it, and at the same time, several of these initiatives between Turkey and 362 00:35:23.119 --> 00:35:31.760 Israel UH involving oil and gas in the Mediterranean pipelines, you know, you 363 00:35:31.800 --> 00:35:37.719 know, technology sharing, and I like they haven't been stopped. And then 364 00:35:38.159 --> 00:35:45.639 yesterday when I was turn turning into column but also doing some more research this 365 00:35:45.639 --> 00:35:51.199 this turned up on a couple of websites and it was a Bloomberg News UH 366 00:35:51.519 --> 00:36:00.199 source on it. Turkey has been shipping UH a Zeri as Azerbaijan produced oil 367 00:36:00.480 --> 00:36:08.320 to Israel for a number of years and earlier earlier this week sometimes I say 368 00:36:08.519 --> 00:36:15.840 sometime between the twenty fourth of October and the and the thirtieth of October, 369 00:36:16.639 --> 00:36:22.440 a mal Cheese tanker with a million barrels of a Zeri crude pulled into eye 370 00:36:22.440 --> 00:36:30.000 Lot and it had loaded up and chay on the Turkish oil port on the 371 00:36:30.000 --> 00:36:37.119 Mediterranean. The Turks are still doing business with the Israelis, but the Iranians 372 00:36:37.119 --> 00:36:43.599 are getting at least out of Airdwan all the statements they want. So that's 373 00:36:44.239 --> 00:36:50.440 that is I'm one of the details on that because I'm not sure how much 374 00:36:50.559 --> 00:37:01.599 the Iranians have really shaken the strategic rapro schmall involving Israel where it's Uh Arab 375 00:37:02.639 --> 00:37:13.119 Sunni Arab neighbors and UH and also with UH with with Turkey. It's I'm 376 00:37:13.159 --> 00:37:19.119 not sure that this This isn't exactly answering your question, but I think undermining 377 00:37:19.760 --> 00:37:25.599 the rapprochem was one of Iran's goals and they've done that, gotten that temporarily. 378 00:37:27.079 --> 00:37:31.800 Do they really want to have an all out war Iran versus Israel. 379 00:37:32.320 --> 00:37:37.559 No, but they'd sure like the little Israel down by fighting his Balah, 380 00:37:38.280 --> 00:37:44.079 fighting Hamas. Also, I would say there's another proxy war going on in 381 00:37:45.599 --> 00:37:51.360 Syria that more directly involves Iran. And then you know the hoodies getting in 382 00:37:51.480 --> 00:37:59.719 it, firing their long range drones that the Navy Guided Missile destroyer intercepted. 383 00:38:00.199 --> 00:38:06.320 But they have the capability to launch those long range attacks. And a horror 384 00:38:06.360 --> 00:38:10.519 story here. It's not none to scare, it's to provoke thought. Who 385 00:38:10.599 --> 00:38:16.559 says you couldn't put a small tactical nuclear warhead on one of those suicide drones 386 00:38:17.159 --> 00:38:23.280 and have it blow up in southern southern Israel. And does Iran in that 387 00:38:23.400 --> 00:38:31.280 case have plausible deniability? You know, yeah, it does. I'm I'm 388 00:38:31.280 --> 00:38:37.280 playing uh novelist here, except it's it's not a novelists. Something you have 389 00:38:37.360 --> 00:38:43.599 to have to really really think about. But you also see that in order 390 00:38:43.599 --> 00:38:47.000 to hit Israel, even if you're firing them so that the flight path is 391 00:38:47.039 --> 00:38:52.679 going up the Red Sea, you're going over Saudi or part of Saudi Arabia, 392 00:38:53.199 --> 00:38:59.480 and you might even have some of their drones go over over Jordan in 393 00:38:59.559 --> 00:39:05.440 order to hit Israel. See uh. And that's that's something if I can 394 00:39:05.480 --> 00:39:09.360 think of it and talk to you on our on our podcast here, on 395 00:39:09.400 --> 00:39:19.719 your podcast, I guarantee you some Iranian uh, some some hard but thoughtful 396 00:39:20.119 --> 00:39:25.280 Iranian. Uh. Al Kud's officers thought of that, He've done I've done 397 00:39:25.280 --> 00:39:31.039 a paper on it, and he thought of it before. Well, it's 398 00:39:31.039 --> 00:39:37.199 also occurred to me that there's a there's strategic Another strategic objective is pure public 399 00:39:37.239 --> 00:39:42.920 relations, not simply divert or disrupting the rapproach mode on the Abraham Accurds and 400 00:39:42.920 --> 00:39:46.280 so forth. But it's to pierce the image that Israel has enjoyed for the 401 00:39:46.360 --> 00:39:52.320 last several decades of being invulnerable that they can't possibly be defeated by the Arab 402 00:39:52.440 --> 00:39:57.639 world. And you know, it's unthinkable that Israel will be defeated now literally 403 00:39:58.119 --> 00:40:00.400 destroyed, you know, like we did Japan in Germany and World War Two. 404 00:40:00.519 --> 00:40:05.079 But if you actually re orient the Arabs to thinking, gosh, you 405 00:40:05.079 --> 00:40:08.480 know, the Israelis can be taken down, that changes the ground going forward 406 00:40:08.480 --> 00:40:12.719 to the next twenty thirty years if you follow what I'm saying about that. 407 00:40:12.719 --> 00:40:16.519 In other words, they want to deal a reputational blow to Israel, and 408 00:40:17.119 --> 00:40:22.079 it looks toeming like they're coming close to accomplishing that. I really don't think 409 00:40:22.159 --> 00:40:30.519 they are, despite their media advantage. Look, the Israelis cloak of and 410 00:40:30.599 --> 00:40:37.719 vulnerability was pierced by their defeat at Chinese Farm in nineteen seventy three. That's 411 00:40:37.800 --> 00:40:45.760 that battle is actually a Japanese experimental agricultural station in Sinai, where essentially, 412 00:40:45.400 --> 00:40:50.159 as Israelis, who are masters that combined armed warfare, the tanks attacked by 413 00:40:50.159 --> 00:40:59.400 themselves and the Egyptian infantry men with anti tank missiles and rocket propel grenades not 414 00:41:00.000 --> 00:41:07.199 scores of them out and suddenly we were into this longer, longer war and 415 00:41:07.559 --> 00:41:15.719 Israel wasn't gonna win it with a massive armor attack. And what does come 416 00:41:15.760 --> 00:41:17.719 out of that? Though? The Egyptians thought that they had recovered some of 417 00:41:17.760 --> 00:41:22.719 their dignity, and you end up with this cold peace that has persisted and 418 00:41:22.760 --> 00:41:32.679 still exists between Egypt and in Israel. This is one reason I think the 419 00:41:32.719 --> 00:41:40.159 Israelis really are going to go after Amas and attempt to kill as many H 420 00:41:40.480 --> 00:41:51.440 Moss terrorists and especially the leadership, because of the barbarity of the of the 421 00:41:51.440 --> 00:41:57.960 atrocities. And the thing is is that somebody in Israel needs to have the 422 00:41:58.079 --> 00:42:04.320 guts to make sure that it's documented. So if you're going, if you're 423 00:42:04.360 --> 00:42:07.960 going, you see what I'm saying. You know, you paid the price 424 00:42:07.760 --> 00:42:12.599 and here it is and you came at us. I know this is so 425 00:42:12.880 --> 00:42:17.679 hard to uh deal with, especially when you have so many talk shows that 426 00:42:17.760 --> 00:42:22.519 are oriented to everybody has to feel good about everybody else. You know, 427 00:42:23.800 --> 00:42:27.320 beheading. I'm making fun of it and you know it. But the thing 428 00:42:27.440 --> 00:42:37.239 is heading babies, These these work outrageous atrocities, and that feeds also in 429 00:42:37.280 --> 00:42:45.679 to the glorification of violence by the so called depressed against oppressors that go on 430 00:42:45.679 --> 00:42:49.199 on the college campuses here. Now they see that's something, the fact that 431 00:42:49.239 --> 00:42:55.239 we absolutely have to engage and it's okay that may be, that may be 432 00:42:55.280 --> 00:43:00.920 a twenty year, twenty year struggle, but you see the damn well, 433 00:43:01.239 --> 00:43:05.400 if we're lucky, if they but they get to get back on point is 434 00:43:05.400 --> 00:43:13.920 the uh uh. I think you're gonna see Israeli power UH exercised. And 435 00:43:13.960 --> 00:43:20.039 if the Iranians made the mistake of trying a ballistic missile attack or the like, 436 00:43:20.400 --> 00:43:25.320 you'd you'd see the Israelis respond against against Iran. How would they do 437 00:43:25.400 --> 00:43:32.079 that? Probably with their missiles on their submarines, their cruise missiles on the 438 00:43:32.119 --> 00:43:37.599 subs. But the Israelis have thought about it and it might even bring in 439 00:43:37.800 --> 00:43:42.880 US action, which I don't think the Iranians want, and the Russians are 440 00:43:42.880 --> 00:43:49.239 certainly in no position now to aid them if the US UH came in. 441 00:43:49.639 --> 00:43:55.719 But UH now those are I'm not saying that's gonna happen, But isn't that 442 00:43:57.039 --> 00:44:00.880 uh essay I wrote last week? You have to watch this because if you 443 00:44:01.079 --> 00:44:06.360 did get engaged, if US gets engaged in the Middle East, that opens 444 00:44:06.440 --> 00:44:14.119 up the Pacific for a Chinese probe, right, well, that's what That's 445 00:44:14.159 --> 00:44:15.639 what I want to turn to next. Then is our last subject is the 446 00:44:15.679 --> 00:44:20.400 whole problem of China. So to state a few obvious things, China is 447 00:44:20.440 --> 00:44:27.280 building a formidable arsenal, you know, a serious navy to challenge ours land 448 00:44:27.280 --> 00:44:31.960 based missiles. I understand that can deny possibly probably access to our carrier battle 449 00:44:32.000 --> 00:44:38.079 groups to the far western Pacific. You know, Invading Taiwan sounds like a 450 00:44:38.119 --> 00:44:42.559 difficult thing to undertake, but not impossible, I suppose, with their numbers 451 00:44:42.559 --> 00:44:45.559 and so forth. And the other part of the question is is, yeah, 452 00:44:45.599 --> 00:44:50.800 the circumstances in one sense look like favorable to China right now if they 453 00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:53.159 wanted to grab Taiwan the old fashioned way. On the other hand, you 454 00:44:53.159 --> 00:44:57.239 know, people friends of mine and maybe you know David Goldman, two things 455 00:44:57.280 --> 00:45:00.159 they don't need to do that they can be patient, let it eventually just 456 00:45:00.239 --> 00:45:05.840 fall into their lap because we're overextended, decadent, not responding vigorously enough with 457 00:45:05.880 --> 00:45:09.320 our own military arrangement of forces and so forth. So I don't know what's 458 00:45:09.320 --> 00:45:14.960 your general assessment of the China problem and what should we do about it? 459 00:45:15.239 --> 00:45:21.639 All right? My general assessment is almost as complicated as the two choices that 460 00:45:21.760 --> 00:45:29.639 you look, the Chinese would rather not uh get involved in a war. 461 00:45:30.000 --> 00:45:37.400 They take Sunsu seriously. You know, the acme of generalship is to win 462 00:45:37.519 --> 00:45:44.719 without fighting. And I'm paraphrasing five or six of his uh little epigrams. 463 00:45:44.920 --> 00:45:47.599 You know. But the thing is that the sport of war spends a lot 464 00:45:47.599 --> 00:45:54.280 of time talking about, uh, the risks of losing once once violence stops. 465 00:45:54.320 --> 00:46:02.800 I'm again, I'm I'm paraphrasing. You want to do it without going 466 00:46:04.119 --> 00:46:07.639 going to war. You know, you want the other side to submit to 467 00:46:07.719 --> 00:46:14.440 your overwhelming will, but you really don't want to start combat because then you 468 00:46:14.480 --> 00:46:20.199 don't really know how that's going to end. And that's what they'd like. 469 00:46:20.360 --> 00:46:24.000 That's why they've got the you know, they use their money, they try 470 00:46:24.000 --> 00:46:30.119 to use their influence Confucius institutes, you know, and Belton Rode in it 471 00:46:30.400 --> 00:46:37.280 and initiative. You know, there's a I read this assessment of China about 472 00:46:37.440 --> 00:46:43.119 ten years ago, and the author was comparing Chinese policy to the game of 473 00:46:43.159 --> 00:46:46.320 go, where you're just trying to surround you know, your opponent, your 474 00:46:46.320 --> 00:46:52.199 opponent. And as a matter of fact, there's a Chinese admiral I wrote 475 00:46:52.239 --> 00:46:55.639 a column about this, I think in twenty fifteen, who talked about their 476 00:46:55.719 --> 00:47:00.639 cabbage strategy in the South China Sea, which is the kind of come in 477 00:47:00.880 --> 00:47:05.280 and then you know, they have one thing here, but then slowly something 478 00:47:05.360 --> 00:47:09.599 they want they surround with leaves of cabbage, you know, is the way 479 00:47:08.760 --> 00:47:14.679 he put it. But I've heard it expressed in other uh, in other 480 00:47:14.679 --> 00:47:19.639 ways as well. I didn't do a good job of describing what the admiral 481 00:47:19.679 --> 00:47:23.239 said, but you get the point of what he was saying that they were 482 00:47:23.280 --> 00:47:29.639 trying to do. Uh. This is a sidebar, but it'll go right 483 00:47:29.719 --> 00:47:32.599 back into answering your question. I think one of the things that Chinese want 484 00:47:32.920 --> 00:47:37.760 ultimately is control of the Straits of Malacca, which means Singapore. And that's 485 00:47:37.840 --> 00:47:44.280 if you look at the artificial islands going down in the South China Sea. 486 00:47:44.599 --> 00:47:51.360 They're they're they're like a very slow concrete fist aimed at Singapore. They are, 487 00:47:51.920 --> 00:47:54.440 and they're trying to, you know, lay claim to the their nine 488 00:47:54.519 --> 00:47:59.320 dash line, except now they have a ten dash line because they've on their 489 00:47:59.400 --> 00:48:02.719 latest map, they've got a dash of China that's to the east of Taiwan, 490 00:48:04.000 --> 00:48:08.880 you know, so it's it's now ten dash ten dash line. Do 491 00:48:09.000 --> 00:48:15.840 I think China would attack Taiwan, Yes, I think communists China would in 492 00:48:15.920 --> 00:48:24.000 the right circumstances where they think they've got an easy, an easy grab. 493 00:48:25.199 --> 00:48:30.800 Of course, what the Ukrainians did to the Russians, where the Russians were 494 00:48:30.880 --> 00:48:37.199 expected suddenly, Oh maybe not. Taiwan has let some of its own local 495 00:48:37.239 --> 00:48:44.599 defenses UH degrade. But I've been on to Taiwan and I've seen some some 496 00:48:44.679 --> 00:48:51.440 of these bunkers, and I drove past this airfield they have on the eastern 497 00:48:51.519 --> 00:48:55.719 side of the island. That's just like these airfields that Switzerland has up in 498 00:48:55.760 --> 00:49:01.760 the Alps. They're always cut back into a mountain and then F sixteen's come 499 00:49:01.800 --> 00:49:07.639 out and take off on the on the super Highway, just like the Swiss 500 00:49:07.920 --> 00:49:15.880 have it. They have their ways to destroy anything. But it's Taiwan is 501 00:49:15.920 --> 00:49:22.400 a big, huge rock that UH seen this several times. As a matter 502 00:49:22.440 --> 00:49:28.360 of fact, I think one of these maps was published within the last couple 503 00:49:28.400 --> 00:49:35.880 of years on on one of the UH military news sides. It's they've really 504 00:49:35.960 --> 00:49:40.960 only got two, maybe three beaches that you could use for an amphibious assault 505 00:49:42.079 --> 00:49:49.360 because you you, yeah, you could have small uh small packets of soldiers 506 00:49:49.360 --> 00:49:53.719 coming in on amphibs, and you can certainly have air mobile and an airborne, 507 00:49:54.039 --> 00:50:00.679 but a huge you know, D Day type or US going after Ojima. 508 00:50:00.039 --> 00:50:07.000 That's they're just a handful of those of those beaches uh ones in the 509 00:50:07.079 --> 00:50:09.159 south, and I think two of them are in the north. I'm doing 510 00:50:09.159 --> 00:50:15.599 this from memory. Don't don't hold uh hold me uh hold me to it. 511 00:50:15.199 --> 00:50:21.440 But one of the things that they're they've done is they have all these 512 00:50:21.519 --> 00:50:24.800 dredges come out and tear up the fishing grounds around Matsu, you know, 513 00:50:24.840 --> 00:50:34.239 those islands that are northwest of Taiwan that are uh Republic of China like this, 514 00:50:34.360 --> 00:50:40.320 And that's that's another example of isolating as well as probing and threatening uh 515 00:50:42.159 --> 00:50:47.599 Taiwan's uh uh sovereignty. They definitely want to want to see if they can 516 00:50:47.599 --> 00:50:54.000 shake up Taiwan psychologically. But would they move if the United States was bogged 517 00:50:54.000 --> 00:51:02.639 down someplace else. They've certainly built naval forces that will vastly outnumber what the 518 00:51:02.760 --> 00:51:10.800 US Navy and our allies could put into the area quickly. Are there ships 519 00:51:12.800 --> 00:51:16.960 as high a quality as the ships in the US Navy, the Australian, 520 00:51:17.360 --> 00:51:22.239 the Japanese Navy. I don't think they are no, but they're good enough, 521 00:51:23.320 --> 00:51:29.320 and they're certainly trying to train their crews to it. They still have 522 00:51:29.480 --> 00:51:34.719 aspects of what's called a bastion fleet for the Chinese coast, with all of 523 00:51:34.719 --> 00:51:39.239 its missiles and the light can provide them with some degree of air defense but 524 00:51:39.360 --> 00:51:46.079 also battle support. And they've got their so called carrier killer ballistic missiles that 525 00:51:45.719 --> 00:51:52.320 are designed to keep our battle groups in the Eastern Pacific around Hawaii or even 526 00:51:52.920 --> 00:52:04.920 east of Hawaii until we've quhittled down or destroyed those missiles. I don't know 527 00:52:05.880 --> 00:52:09.199 how long it would take to do that. I do know that the Chinese 528 00:52:09.239 --> 00:52:16.599 are terribly worried about air delivered mines and submarine delivered mines because you could pin 529 00:52:16.760 --> 00:52:23.559 them up against their coast with all these mines. And the Japanese are very 530 00:52:23.639 --> 00:52:34.159 much into that as a defensive measure. And you can be fifty two's and 531 00:52:34.199 --> 00:52:40.639 b ones can deliver slews of the sea mins, but you've got to be 532 00:52:40.719 --> 00:52:44.880 ready to do it, and you've got to make sure that your b ones 533 00:52:45.239 --> 00:52:51.920 and b fifty two's aren't committed to somewhere else in the Middle East. Yeah, 534 00:52:51.920 --> 00:52:53.440 because if you're going to try to if you're going to try to hold 535 00:52:53.440 --> 00:52:59.679 them up against the coast, you've got to start that operation immediately when they 536 00:52:59.719 --> 00:53:05.400 make they make the move. Uh. But would they do it, you 537 00:53:05.599 --> 00:53:09.719 have to be prepared for them to do it, and that actually as a 538 00:53:09.760 --> 00:53:16.320 deterrence forward. I'll throw in something that I've been on advocating now for some 539 00:53:16.519 --> 00:53:21.880 time. We need some and there have been a couple of war games that 540 00:53:22.800 --> 00:53:27.599 run by CSI, s UH and the like. There is a good study 541 00:53:27.639 --> 00:53:32.320 that was published I think uh it was I think last year. But uh, 542 00:53:32.639 --> 00:53:40.199 we need some smaller stealthy warships that you can build quickly, and I 543 00:53:40.280 --> 00:53:44.480 know of one that and I've written about it in a couple of places. 544 00:53:44.519 --> 00:53:47.360 In other words, but it doesn't take all that many men capable of caring. 545 00:53:47.840 --> 00:53:52.159 Uh. Uh I should say sailors. I'm sorry, it doesn't take 546 00:53:52.159 --> 00:53:55.880 all that many sailors. If I say men, I'm a uh. The 547 00:53:57.239 --> 00:54:05.360 uh you can some of fire missiles that the Army and Navy are both developing. 548 00:54:05.400 --> 00:54:12.719 Are these hypersonic missiles in the can are so powerful that you can put 549 00:54:12.719 --> 00:54:19.039 them on a smaller ship and still give yourself more platforms that could not only 550 00:54:19.119 --> 00:54:28.400 take on Chinese warships but also suppress the Chinese batteries land based batteries, and 551 00:54:28.440 --> 00:54:35.039 you're not putting the carriers to risk there. And you can also build them 552 00:54:35.119 --> 00:54:39.000 fast. I'm not sure how quickly, but probably they'd be able to have 553 00:54:39.039 --> 00:54:45.760 a little fleet of these things within twelve to fourteen months of starting them up. 554 00:54:47.079 --> 00:54:55.559 The problem you'd have is training the sailors to fight them and also educating 555 00:54:55.599 --> 00:55:01.880 the officers, and I wouldn't just the navy, because it would be the 556 00:55:01.960 --> 00:55:07.840 joint joint force how to use the platforms against Chinese. You think of them 557 00:55:07.840 --> 00:55:12.840 as pet boats, but their missile, you know, multiple multi but and 558 00:55:12.960 --> 00:55:15.840 some of them have one I'm thinking of has has long legs. I mean 559 00:55:15.880 --> 00:55:22.199 it's it has a range, so it's not short range like a pet boat. 560 00:55:22.440 --> 00:55:31.280 These but are unfortunately our Department of Defense is we're we're into just big 561 00:55:31.320 --> 00:55:36.599 ships. And yet you have these voices all over the place, including the 562 00:55:36.719 --> 00:55:42.440 C S I S study and another study I'm aware of that the Australians carried 563 00:55:42.480 --> 00:55:45.599 out. And then you know my own own opinion, but it's you know, 564 00:55:46.440 --> 00:55:50.800 across there saying wait a minute, we need these. We've got some 565 00:55:50.920 --> 00:55:57.920 of the yards that build you know, like offshore supply uh ships uh for 566 00:55:57.960 --> 00:56:02.760 the operating the Gulf of Mexico like that they could manufacture these things. Uh 567 00:56:02.280 --> 00:56:08.079 yeah, would it deter China? It might? It might because they wouldn't 568 00:56:08.159 --> 00:56:13.559 have the whole advantage, and they'd also know how dangerous these things are. 569 00:56:14.000 --> 00:56:15.920 So yeah, all right, Well, let's let's get out for today. 570 00:56:16.239 --> 00:56:21.679 Uh with one of those dumb old TV talk show type questions, But it's 571 00:56:21.679 --> 00:56:24.960 a way of summarizing your your general mood. I guess i'd say so on 572 00:56:25.000 --> 00:56:30.599 a scale of one to ten, ten being worse. How worried are you 573 00:56:30.840 --> 00:56:39.320 about America's strategic position in the world outlook today? Oh man, I'll tell 574 00:56:39.360 --> 00:56:47.639 you a questions. I'll tell you what. I am very worried about our 575 00:56:47.800 --> 00:56:57.119 leadership class. All right, Yes, that's that's mine. That's my worry 576 00:56:57.239 --> 00:57:13.679 here. We have enough retained defense capabilities and existing defense capabilities, and enough 577 00:57:14.840 --> 00:57:22.239 quality overall throughout our military forces to be able to handle and watch how I'm 578 00:57:22.239 --> 00:57:27.440 going to say this A big one. I don't know that we can handle 579 00:57:27.440 --> 00:57:30.519 two big ones and essentially two big ones. We've handled two big ones in 580 00:57:30.559 --> 00:57:37.800 World War Two when we were fighting on the Pacific and fighting the Atlantic in 581 00:57:37.840 --> 00:57:44.440 Europe. As some of this goes back to nineteen ninety and the so called 582 00:57:44.440 --> 00:57:47.840 peace dividend, and then we were going to fight one big one and hold 583 00:57:47.880 --> 00:57:52.760 elsewhere, fight one and hold and then come when the other one. I 584 00:57:52.760 --> 00:57:58.440 don't think we have the time to do that, and China's too large an 585 00:57:58.480 --> 00:58:05.440 adversary. Uh. But our leadership class started out talking about how slow Biden 586 00:58:05.639 --> 00:58:13.199 was, how tentative, how mismanaged the Afghanistan withdrawal, mismanaged a disaster absolutely 587 00:58:13.199 --> 00:58:23.320 dificult, and arguably Putin wouldn't have tried to up his super blitz of the 588 00:58:23.440 --> 00:58:32.039 Ukraine if if he didn't see how weak the Biden administration was on managing a 589 00:58:32.360 --> 00:58:39.960 real military operation. I think it encouraged Iran immensely, and heavens were seeing 590 00:58:40.199 --> 00:58:45.880 some of the weapons that the Taliban took come back filter in through Iran. 591 00:58:46.239 --> 00:58:50.880 I've seen that in four or five places that it's turned up. In fact, 592 00:58:50.920 --> 00:58:58.320 as there was a hall the US Navy ship caught an Iranian ship smuggling 593 00:58:58.400 --> 00:59:02.199 arms to the hoodies and the there was there was some light weapons in there 594 00:59:02.199 --> 00:59:09.559 that were traceable back to UH stocks in Afghanistan. At least that's the allegation 595 00:59:09.679 --> 00:59:15.679 that was in the in the article. I know they're out there, and 596 00:59:15.719 --> 00:59:22.320 I know the Taliban Taliban got some absolutely fabulous US weapons, but UH leadership 597 00:59:22.360 --> 00:59:29.679 class and yes, I mean dieting a large portion of the Democrat Party here, 598 00:59:30.239 --> 00:59:34.000 but you have Republicans to who are on this about I don't want to 599 00:59:34.000 --> 00:59:37.199 fund Ukraine. It's all corrupt, can't win and you know, you know 600 00:59:37.440 --> 00:59:45.639 all that's oy. Uh. Do you want the Russians to push into Poland 601 00:59:45.800 --> 00:59:50.199 after they gobble up Ukraine? You know, what do you think about that? 602 00:59:50.239 --> 00:59:52.559 Oh? And then you get back to certain kinds of UH. And 603 00:59:52.639 --> 00:59:57.239 this is predominantly in the Republican Party is we don't need NATO anymore. You 604 00:59:57.280 --> 01:00:00.679 don't. That's the world's that's the most successful military alliance and the history of 605 01:00:00.719 --> 01:00:04.599 the world for a lot of things. You know, now, I've got 606 01:00:04.800 --> 01:00:08.800 doubts about Air Towan in Turkey, but Turkey benefits from NATO, and the 607 01:00:08.840 --> 01:00:15.519 Turks know it, and even Airdwan knows it because twice in twenty twelve, 608 01:00:15.559 --> 01:00:22.199 I think it was he said he was going to invoke NATO Article five because 609 01:00:22.239 --> 01:00:27.239 of shots coming over the border from Syria, and it was, you know, 610 01:00:27.360 --> 01:00:31.320 it wasn't stop it. You know, suddenly now you're at war with 611 01:00:31.360 --> 01:00:36.760 the United States in Germany and everybody else. It's not just you know, 612 01:00:37.239 --> 01:00:42.519 Turkey here, even though it was stupid that the Assyrians would do. The 613 01:00:42.639 --> 01:00:50.119 other Turks have a very fine military establishment. But it's we have this, 614 01:00:50.239 --> 01:00:59.280 we have. We've also lost a since in this country of the and I 615 01:00:59.480 --> 01:01:05.280 blame the cancel culture that comes out of the campus and also a media that 616 01:01:05.559 --> 01:01:13.320 you can't have an adult conversation on a very difficult subjects without being called you 617 01:01:13.320 --> 01:01:16.119 know this all one word here, steve racist racist, racist, that's all 618 01:01:16.119 --> 01:01:20.760 one word, or such and such a sex. And I've used this in 619 01:01:20.800 --> 01:01:24.360 columns sometimes there it is and then whatever little cussword you know those are. 620 01:01:25.199 --> 01:01:30.440 But if you come back and say something, oh, microaggression, you hurt 621 01:01:30.440 --> 01:01:35.639 my feelings. Well, you know, there's this country's got a lot of 622 01:01:35.719 --> 01:01:39.039 growing up to do. So I think I've laid that out. I'm at 623 01:01:39.039 --> 01:01:43.679 a seven. I'll say I'm at a seven, which for somebody like me, 624 01:01:43.800 --> 01:01:52.119 because I'm if you'd ask me this question in two thousand and eight, 625 01:01:53.119 --> 01:01:59.760 even twenty ten, my level of worry would have been about two. You 626 01:01:59.800 --> 01:02:06.920 know, that's right, that's right. But uh I also you know there 627 01:02:07.119 --> 01:02:10.440 it would have improved. But the Biden administration is really one of the most 628 01:02:12.079 --> 01:02:25.679 miserably bad in American history when it comes to foreign policy. And y yeah, 629 01:02:27.079 --> 01:02:30.880 you know there's somebody on instapondent was saying that and maybe maybe they were 630 01:02:30.920 --> 01:02:36.079 quote you you know what I mean. I saw that and I laughed and 631 01:02:36.360 --> 01:02:40.199 I thought, no, Austin, that's not funny. That's because what happened 632 01:02:40.639 --> 01:02:46.679 when Carter got so bad besides the shaw uh uh uh following the Russians invader 633 01:02:46.719 --> 01:02:52.679 Defghalistown, which for them but turned into too a disaster. But they thought, 634 01:02:52.719 --> 01:02:58.280 hey, we got an easy one now see uh the U. But 635 01:02:58.400 --> 01:03:07.119 how we've got to be a well to debate difficult policy issues without ad hominem 636 01:03:07.199 --> 01:03:15.760 attack and also crediting there's some you know, I'm sorry. The world really 637 01:03:15.800 --> 01:03:22.480 isn't divided between oppressors and the oppressed and author It's not. It doesn't. 638 01:03:22.639 --> 01:03:27.760 It doesn't come clean like that because I can show you in every single country 639 01:03:27.800 --> 01:03:34.679 on this planet oppressors and oppressed that are local. And that's one of the 640 01:03:34.679 --> 01:03:39.079 things I've I want to get to talking about Africa. I've had the quality 641 01:03:39.599 --> 01:03:46.440 experience in East Africa and I've covered Congo and Central Africa for Strategy Page for 642 01:03:46.719 --> 01:03:54.360 over twenty years, you know, doing updates seven or eight times a year, 643 01:03:54.440 --> 01:04:00.519 but detailed updates on it. And I'm sorry some of the situations in 644 01:04:00.519 --> 01:04:08.000 those countries, they were not caused by colonialism. They're caused by tribalism there. 645 01:04:08.159 --> 01:04:13.360 In many cases they're exacerbated because of phony porters. But that's not the 646 01:04:13.400 --> 01:04:16.119 only thing going on there. They're local bad actors of the of the worst 647 01:04:16.639 --> 01:04:23.800 worst sort end up enslaving their own people. And I'm using that enslaving may 648 01:04:23.840 --> 01:04:28.599 not be by name slavery, but that's essentially what happens. But if you 649 01:04:28.679 --> 01:04:31.559 start talking about this, uh, you're you're you're called well, you have 650 01:04:31.599 --> 01:04:39.880 a colonial mentality, I do, I do. You don't know me very 651 01:04:39.920 --> 01:04:44.639 well, but uh, that's that's what you get because they don't want to 652 01:04:44.679 --> 01:04:51.639 deal with hard, discrete facts, and the discrete facts in so many cases 653 01:04:53.000 --> 01:05:00.079 in the developing world fly in the face of their theory. The discrete facts 654 01:05:00.440 --> 01:05:05.280 are very difficult. But the thing is that in the end, reality wins. 655 01:05:05.480 --> 01:05:13.039 You see right, there's an old saying attributed to Hegel that when theory 656 01:05:13.079 --> 01:05:15.320 and facts disagree so much, the worse for the facts. And that's certainly 657 01:05:15.360 --> 01:05:18.320 the world we live in. I'm in I'm in hinding agreement with you about 658 01:05:18.320 --> 01:05:23.280 the how bad our leadership class is. Uh But Austin, we're gonna have 659 01:05:23.280 --> 01:05:27.239 to leave it there for today. But thanks for joining me, and I 660 01:05:27.280 --> 01:05:30.480 will encourage listeners and power line readers to keep following you on strategy page and 661 01:05:30.519 --> 01:05:44.039 your creator's call. So thanks? What does it mean think to you? 662 01:05:45.039 --> 01:05:59.119 Tell me? What do you anything? The new stamp dangles a nd your 663 01:05:59.159 --> 01:06:08.360 nose? Mh you talk so sweet berry? Don't nobody knowing? Do you 664 01:06:08.719 --> 01:06:34.400 find d bringing you the blue ricochet? Join the conversation