What is krack lacking, fellow thermonuclear a effort. I am Dan fa Valley
coming at you with my certified fantabulous co host Grant Hughes, who's on the
end from being sick. But it's powering through anyway. He went through a
live stream at the critical mass of his illness and now he's powering through for
our second mailbag of the week because he cares about you, the listeners,
or at least the ones who ask questions on Twitter. This time our first
question that we get to. Well, first, I'm this is terrible podcasting.
Remember subscribe. I think we get a lot of first time listeners when
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Twitter and TikTok or at Hardwood Knox and Instagram is at Hardwood Underscore Knox.
The most important question we will ask that we will always ask, but
especially now because he's on the men, Grant, how the heck are you
feeling? I'm feeling better? I sound worse, although, like I would
say, I do kind of enjoy having like the one to two octave lower
voice today, and maybe it's good for podcasting, Like you know, everyone
just kind of like try to keep your arousal to a minimum out there with
my deep and sultry voice today. Yeah, like we it might be an
aphrodisiac now, but it's going to be a leading one. Hard to say.
Yeah, I don't get used to it because this is not normally how
I sound so well. I don't know if people we get reviews that like,
wow, that Grant's voices incredibly you don't have to figure out a way
to just like dial it back two octaves every single time. I'm sure the
technology exists. We could definitely mess with you do sound like you would make
a lot of money narrating audiobooks right now, So I don't know, like
you in a window where you can sign up for that and record of you
over the next couple of days. Maybe it could do like a truck commercial.
Yeah, like built Ford Tough. You definitely have thats going on right
now. Yeah, how hard is it to get like a major automaker to
sponsor a podcast? Is that? Can you pull out? We've done it.
We haven't been sponsored by choice. I've just decided that we don't want
to make money on the podcast. This is that would be selling out.
We want to be like trendy and what they call like radio rejects for bands.
We don't want to sell out. We want I mean I would sell
out, you know, especially as long as I have this voice. I
think you know, built Ford Tough. See, I'm already losing it.
I don't want to waste it. We should get into the mail back.
I'm thanks for mentioning it. Yeah, I would sell I would sell out
too, and I especially sell out if we get Ghosts to sponsor us.
Sponsor us those energy drinks, those Sour Patch Kids energy drinks. I'm a
sucker for those. So like a ghost is listening sponsor Hardwood Knocks. We're
one of the three most listened to podcasts that are recorded in my house.
I think top three recorded at this residence. But before we get into the
mailbag, we have some news. Right before we recorded, Woads tweeted that
Bodo mcdonovich signed a four year, sixty eight million dollar extension with the Hawks.
He will decline his eighteen million dollars player option as part of this deal.
Before I get Grand's thoughts on it, my one takeaway from this that
has to do with overarching free agency. It's gonna suck again. There's just
like all the good free agents or we don't really see stars hit free agents
anymore. James Harden might still be there, and there's the Houston bugaboo.
Who knows what the fuck Kira will do. But we're just pulling like top
ten fifteen names off the board at this point. What do you think of
the overall deal for for sixty eight for Boda mcdonovich. I think just the
there's no sticker shock at all. That's my first reaction is that seems like
a reasonable deal for him. I just it's a weird time like this.
I was, you know, if you told me there was breaking news or
I'm sure everyone that heard you say there was breaking news, would not have
expected to be a now for this season, would probably be the one everyone's
yeah yeah, a declined player option and then and then a new four year
deal. So I mean, you know, we've talked about this off air.
It seemed fine to me. I think I think Boganovich is a good
player. I think even with Murray on the team, he still feels a
role when he's healthy. That's been a big question. I guess if you're
critical of this deal, you're probably concerned about his health. But it's not
like, you know, because what does he played forty three games this year,
sixty three last year forty four before. This stuff is still just it
always feels like it's cropping up with him, right, and it seems like
it's knee. Yeah, it's just kind of chronic. He's gonna miss time.
But like when he's on the floor, he's just a good player.
He's over forty percent from deep this year, thirty eight point six for his
career. He's just scored like metronomically in the you know, mid teens for
scoring average every year of his career, basically other than his rookie seat in
that's just what he gives you a good passer, smart player, uh,
you know, has the size to defend credibly. I don't. I think
he's slipped defensively as he's you know, gotten through some more injuries and gotten
deeper into his career. But I think it too. He's thirty someone who's
thirty four, which is like a can. He's old in basketball years for
sure, for sure, But you know you're not again, you're not committing
twenty five million a year to this guy. And I think it's it's a
salary that makes sense for his role. But the sort of the fallout for
the Hawks, you know, down down the roster and down the you know,
balance sheets, I think is the more interesting angle. You want to
talk about that, Yeah, And I will say he is so critical.
I don't think they could a lot of people were wondering where they would lose
him because of the the cap sheet stuff. Once you traded Kevin Hurd,
you couldn't lose him. He is so important. You're a three point volume
and overall spacing. Uh. Their effective field goal percentage this year improves by
three point two percentage points with him on the court. That is the highest
increase on the team. And it rates the ninetieth percentile of the league,
and he just does wonders for their spacing. And I think he's even more
important if you're trying to make lineups without Trey that have Dejante Murray work.
And especially with the way John Collins has played this year, that's only increased
as important to the team as well. And you know you're gonna play a
big in Capella or Niko Ko who's not going to space the floor. So
actually, I'm fine with the number. I mean, this takes him through
his age thirty three thirty four season. There's always a risk there, But
eighteen million dollars, you know, three years from now, is going to
be what of the salary cap, maybe fifteen percent of it the projected salary
cap in what's going to be the second year of this deal. If he's
at if he keeps an average, we haven't seen what the raises are,
it's gonna be twelve percent of the salary cap by year two. If he's
at a flat eighteen million, that's that's nothing for a guy who's this good.
What is interesting, though, So if we pencil him in for eighteen
million dollars next year, the Hawks their team salary. This is including you
know, Garrison Matthews, Bruno, Fernando, and Vic Crashy all have non
guaranteed deals. They're so small I'm just gonna include them because if you get
rid of them, you're gonna have to fill most of those spots with minimum
roster charges that come close to these two million dollars hits. Anyway, you're
at plus your first round pick, which right now is projected to fall just
outside the lottery at number fifteen, you're looking at one hundred and seventy one
point four million dollars. The tax line right now is projected to be at
one sixty two. So are the Hawks a team before even spending their mini
mid level exception that are gonna pay the tax? Get my gut? Says
no, Tony Wrestler can say. I think he went on the radio one
boards like, gonna be willing to pay the tax. No, you're not
Kevin Hurder on the team. If you're willing, right, if you're going
to pay the tax, where the fuck is Kevin Hurder? He's killing it
for Sacramento is where he is. So my reaction to this is it was
absolutely, unequivocally a need to keep you, you non negotiable. You needed
Bogdanovitch moving forward, one of John Collins, Clint Cappela, or DeAndre Hunters
getting traded over the offseason. My guests would be, they prefer to move
Maybe they prefer to move Cappella, They prefer to move Collins with three years
left on his deal, Like do you have on Ecca Kungo unless you really
trust him to be your big of the future. And you're high on Jellen
Johnson and you're thinking, we can kind of get one of these cheap bigs
to plug a bunch of minutes. So maybe you look at moving Capella like
this to me screams if anyone thought John Collins was going to be moved as
a salary dump, it now feels more likely than ever. They've changed head
coaches, they've turned over the front office. You've now extended Bogdanovich, which
again smart and I wouldn't just trade. We're both on the same page with
John Collins for the most part. I wouldn't trade him for nothing. I
actually think that he could still be a really good player. Maybe, as
you mentioned off air, we're just describing too much too well. If that
finger. It's gotta be the finger, Like he'll eventually be fine. Maybe
we're wrong there. I'm just I'm officially at the point even though John Collins
has been in trade rumors for roughly two decades without being moved, I do
not think he'll be on the Hawks next I will actually be shocked at this
point if he's on Atlanta next year. Yeah, I mean, all signs
that pointed to him being moved and he hasn't. And as you were talking,
I was looking up, like maybe the three point shots coming around now.
Twenty two point seven percent in March, twenty two point two percent in
February. He's got one month over thirty percent this year. I haven't looked
in the past few games, but his minutes are down under Quinn Snyder two
right, Like that's been something he's down. He's he's playing twenty four point
eight minutes per game in March almost, I think. Yeah, Schnyder's been
at the Helm for all of March and a couple of February games. Yeah,
this is the lowest he's played, scoring nine points a game in March.
That he's just he's being minimized, and like it's hard to you know,
it's just a little correct decision for a guy that's just not going to
threaten anybody from the perimeter, and like, you know, it has not
been valuable when he can't do that. So I think I think we have
both been kind of on the been of the same mind that like it's it's
like, why isn't he a positive value guy? Like why can't you?
And maybe that maybe just like the Hawks now are are gonna have to be
in a position where we just need to get his salary off the books.
Forget the fact that like he's not helping us, We just we can't pay
this much for this five hundred team. So they have to give up an
asset to get off him, which like they're not exactly long on those because
of the Murray trade, and you know, really that's the main thing.
But like they're not in a position where they can be paying to get off
of bad money. Like that's that's what you need to give up an asset
to get rid of him. Just keep him, I like you can't maybe
right, maybe maybe just hope that that his finger heels and he does get
back to just being a league average three point shooter, even if that's low
volume. You know, maybe that's the play and maybe you know you just
wait it out. I don't know. I don't know, but i'd agree
with to back up, I agree with you that if they're gonna, I
think they do need to make a move now to get cheaper and moving him
into somebody's cap space makes the most sense. Do you think to wrap up
on this, do you think that Day fucked up here or because by not
even trying to pair him with Capella and so you're limiting one of his biggest
strengths as a screener inherently, but then also going and getting another ball dominant
guard into John Day Murray? Was this eminently predictable? Or is it more
so on it was actually worth trying out because John Collins is good and it's
the in theory, is very scalable offensively and playing the four is going to
be his best defensive position anyway. So, like, do you like,
do the Hawks deserve from criticism here for not moving him sooner? I mean,
I think if there were deals out there, well, first of all,
like I don't think the thinking was flawed because if he's making you know,
like he shot thirty six point four percent from deep last year, if
he's shooting that well from three this year, even if he's on you know,
he's never been a high volume guy. But if he's taking like three
three's a game and hitting at that rate, I don't think. I don't
think we're having this conversation one because maybe they would have been able to trade
him for positive value if that's just the decision they were going to make,
because the difference between twenty five percent and thirty six percent, it is difficult
to overstate, like in terms of three point percentage because like it's just it's
massive. So if they yeah, I don't think I can put a lot
of this on the Hawks unless they had some golden opportunity they passed on,
because just if you assume you're getting the version of John Collins that has existed
for the last like four years, even since he was a rookie thirty four
percent as a rookie, that'd be fine. You could get away with that.
I just don't know how they could have predicted unless it was super obvious
that that finger injury was gonna make it so that he's just never going to
be able to shoot again. I don't know how they could have seen a
dip like this coming, because I mean, we haven't looked this up,
but like year over year, who has lost their shot like this in the
past, you know, So that part was unpredictable. But I think knowing
that you saw some of the struggles were keeping him at higher usage and more
involved before this year, as soon as you traded De Jean Day Murray,
I think there should have been more of a commitment to moving him rather than
seeing if that could work, because you kind of already knew the returns were
spotty with Clint Capella. Just in terms of John Collins is happiness and usage,
just even if he was efficient, happiness and usage he had said he'd
hinted at saying some things, and then to add Dejeante Murray into the fold.
I get the appeal of but at that point it was if you weren't
going to move Collins as part of that deal, you needed to move him
as part of another deal. I don't know if the front office fluctuation,
like in that leadership being in large, contributed to that at all, And
we don't know what offers were at the DENMO. We know he was going
to Phoenix. We don't know what they were going to give up to get
him, but like now, the way he's played, I would be shocked
if they get more than like a very heavily protected first round pick and then
just like a cheaper collection of players. I mean, I kind of think,
you know, we've we've mostly been on team Collins if there are if
we're taking sides between him and the Hawks, but like, I think he's
kind of an inherently tricky player to integrate because he's not really a foreign he's
not really a five. It would be great if he could defend as a
five, because then you get a lot of really interesting offensive looks, or
you would have if if he could still shoot, Like that's hard. And
then the other thing is I think maybe under disgust is a Capella contract looks
pretty bad. But even at the time, you're thinking, we gotta find
a way to defend the rim and give Trey like a lob catching big guy,
and Capella does those things, so it's sort of defensible there. The
Hawks have made a lot of decisions that like there are there are decent justifications
for that, just now that we're on the other side of so many of
them, it's the total pictures is just way iffier then they probably expected.
And the other thing too, is that we talked about this on the bleacher
Report live stream the other day. They're actually killing it. When Collins Capella
Hunter Martin right on the court, It's like that kind of just disproved,
even with Collins not being at his best. Imagine if he was even at
like sixty percent of what he was or seventy percent, they probably be even
that much better. And so maybe I'm overstating that, but it's weird that
we spent most of the time the Bogdanovitch extension talking about John Collins. I
do think though this actually says more about his future than might actually say about
Bogdanovitch is Yeah. I mean, last thing too that you just made me
think of is maybe is the Collins is future. And then viewing that in
conjunction with Bogdanovitch being back for four more years, there is a scenario where
like, now this Quinn Snyder coach team has a chance to look quite a
bit more like the Utah team that he was pretty successful with, because you're
gonna have a rim, rolling big and then you're gonna be kind of undersized
everywhere else, because you know, you had like Ingalls and Royce O'Neill playing
together a lot and boy on Bogdanovitch next to two smaller guards, and so
if you're gonna you could theoretically, I don't know if Bogdanovitch, Bogdan Bogdanovitch
could hold up for starters minutes, but you could play him with Murray and
with Trey and Hunters are four and now you kind of have a weird jazz
esque look where there's more shot creators. There's kind of a fulcrum in the
middle that catches lobs and set screens. I think it certainly at least feels
like the type of team that Snyder would be comfortable coaching if you take Collins
out of the mix and get a shooter in there. So that's just another
facet to it. I think the more I think about it, the more
that like checks out as kind of the logical reasoning behind the resigning. How's
that we recorded basically an emergency podcast on the Bogdanovitch extension? Is that's why
you come here? Let's dig into this mailbag. I want to ask you
this question from pistons all day. As my dogs are barking in the background,
I want to try and mute as quickly as possible. How much does
Cam Johnson get paid as a retricted free agent? Yeah, so we talked
about I think the twenty five million dollar figure was thrown out on a previous
pot, and we both thought less than that. I will say I could
see him getting that much or more just because of market scarcity. You said,
you, you know, you said it. This is going to be
a rough free agency. There's not a lot of options out there. I
looked at it as who's he competing with? And I was looking more at
small forwards and combo forwards, And that's basically Harrison Barnes is the only potential
free agent that I would put sort of on his level. And Barnes is
going to be like a low twenties guy probably, But you mentioned a couple
other guys that I'll let you talk about as comps. But so there's Brian
Lewis of the New York Posts reported that there's an expectation of like eighteen to
twenty million a year, which, like, you know, Cam Johnson's twenty
seven, that seems about right to me, Like I think that's a reasonable
number. He's a very good shooter, he can hold up on defense,
He's played a meaningful role for a very good Phoenix Suns team. I just
think the weakness of the crop and the fact that you know he's he's he's
good at the things you need a good role player to excel at. So
he's pretty plug and play. So that might mean there's more offers if a
gun to my head, I don't know that he gets to twenty five eighteen
to twenty low twenties feels reasonable to me over what probably four years. Yeah,
Look, he has more of a floor game too. I think that
you could have scorn. He's scoring a bunch more in Brooklyn is two point
efficiency is held up, his threes have come up a little bit, and
just the sheer volume. Even if he's at thirty four point seven percent and
you're taking seven plus three is a game. There's a on a value in
that. I think what would hurt his market is he is feels like a
he's not so one position on defense, but he's kind of a four point
two five, Like you're not gonna play him at the five, You're not
gonna play him at the three. Either or at least you shouldn't, and
there's a the market for that is, yeah, they'll be teams. But
you also have Grant Williams and PJ Washington who are a little bit more multi
positional, where if you're a team with cap space, they're both younger.
So if you're OKAYC, if you're Indiana, do you take a look at
them first? But like, there's only so many of those guys that go
around, and both of them might stay with their current teams Boston maybe like
Grant Williams walking at the office hide enough. I don't think Charlotte, let's
PJ Washington walk. And so if you are an OKAC, Kim Johnson makes
sense next to Chet. He's not super old, doesn't command a ton of
touches on offense, so he's not gonna disrupt what you're doing there or on
defense. I wouldn't hate his fit there. Him and Miles Turner would be
a very interesting ye court like that would be you let that's someone who because
he's spotting up around Miles Turner most of the time, like that's gonna let
turn or even explore more of what he's done this season where he's just improved
decision making on the ball, gotten roll of the basket more so. I
can see the Pacers with a thunder getting involved. But like some of the
other teams with cap space, Houston, I would say, no, like
they don't. They're just so clogged up front unless you're gonna get rid of
Shane gun And or Jabari Smith. Like other teams with cap space, Detroit
doesn't really need him anymore. They have so many biggs. He'd be a
better fit than most of the biggs that are on their roster. But you
have Dran James Wise been showing a bunch of flashes sins being there. So
I look at Indian Okay, see Orlando can get to cap space, but
like, no, I can't really see him there. I guess the Spurs,
but he's still he's like too old. You're not gonna go after that.
And so Utah as well. They had interest in John Collins, but
and Cam Johnson in theory be cheaper than John Collins, but you're not.
He's a restricted free agent, so you know you're gonna have to pay through
the teeth to get him out of Brooklyn. And I think of the teams
I mentioned, like Indiana, might be the most likely to do that because
they could be the closest to being ready to win where I think Okaysee is
getting there, But because they don't have that sample with chet Holme, Grin
and I think we're just inherently more conservative with how they approach their spending.
That would be the team and so like. But at most it feels like
there are two teams that might come over the top, and like that's other
players will probably have more expansive markets, would be my guest. Yeah,
I think just looking at the makeup of the roster, you might say that,
well, the Nets have a glut of you know, forwards and wings
and combo forwards, so that he may not be a priority to retain.
One, I think you get him in the trade partly because you intend to
keep him. And two, I would say that having Bridges and Dorian Phinney
Smith on the same team and in the same lineups like kind of eases some
of the lack of defensive versatility that Johnson has, so you can you can
you know, you probably aren't super psyched on him guarding fives or threes,
but you can if you have the versatility at any other position, get Royce
O'Neill throw him in there too, who's got it? I think he's like
nine million bucks non guaranteed next year, but they'll they'll be back. So
I think maybe that suggests that the Nets, you know, is a better
are a better team for him to stick with, and someplace else he might
go if all things being you know, all things being equal, did you
want to pluck a question for us? Yeah? Do you want to look?
Do you want to do the Diallo one? Let's jumps at exit two?
So we have to This is from Lazarus Jackson. What's Hamau Diallo's free
agency outlook to you? Looking for an outside perspective? We should mention first
that he sprained his ankle and is out for the year now, so it's
very appropriate to be They said three to four weeks he can come back because
they have lots to play for. So those last couple of wins, I've
been really impressed with him this season. I'm curious. What's interesting to me
is so since December thirty first, he's shooting over forty eight percent from mid
range. Now those shots are coming as like kind of floaters or pushes and
like long layups. I would call them, and the pull up jumper has
been sub thirty eight percent. But it's just like he looks a lot more
comfortable. Defenses are going to sag off him, but like if he's turning
a corner or if he's just taking one or two dribbles inside the arc,
he looks very comfortable pulling up. And if you believe in that pull up
jumper as not like a crutch of your offense, but a safety valve,
and you're gonna surround him with even more spacing than Detroit did. I think
that could inflate his market quite a bit because you look at what else he
does. He gets out in transition. He's done a great job of just
cutting in from the corners this year, and defense are gonna play so far
off him that if he can be opportunistic in those situations, capitalizing off of
dishes from guys who are gonna drive, that becomes huge. He can get
to the foul line. It would be nice if he hit his free throws
and then you can even see like there's the multidirection creation with the ball in
his hands. I do think even though he's shooting like over seventy two percent
on paint touches and elbow touches. This year, there's a part when he
is driving and in his drive field goal percentage is up during that December thirty
first stretch and he's doing a little bit more. It does feel like he
blends this lack of fear and getting to the foul line, like, oh,
yeah, he's fine getting into the basket. But then it might also
be in his head that hey, I'm shooting under sixty percent from the free
throw line because he takes these weird, tough angled layups or does an extra
mover, gets too far unto the basket and then tries to attempt a shot
and isn't going to get fouled in a lot of those situations. At the
same time, when he's in transition or when he is attacking the basket,
he can get fouled. And so if he can even shoot like sixty nine
percent from the free throw line, that's going to increase his value. But
like I said, he is the jumper is a concern because they've just decided,
especially since December thirty first, like I think he's taken six or seven
three pointers that he's not gonna that's fine, but it does intrinsically limit how
you build out the roster, not around him, but like who he could
play with. You're not building around how to Fallo. I will say,
if you trust the pull up jumper, you're a team that likes to play
with pace, and you're gonna let him get off ball movement. And look,
Detroit, I'm not crazy about their spacing overall, but they've done a
good job getting him to duck in from the corner. So if they could
do it, I can envision space here or better teams doing it. I
think that changes his value a bunch and some numbers that would probably be float
around if people be like, well you can probably get him like four or
five six million, I'm thinking more mini mid level, which is in the
seven plus million dollars, like if he gets three for twenty three. And
part of that is too, like I know this when you look at what
he does defensively for them. Part of this is how Detroit likes to defend
this season. But like he's defended DeMar Derozen, He's defended Emmanuel quickly,
He's defended Jannis. This year's like he's gotten up and down the positional spectrum.
Basically one through four. So as someone who's six five and assuming there's
no long term issues with the ankle, plays with the physicality to guard that
many spots. Would I be shocked if he got closer to the non taxpayer
mid level than the mini mid level. Probably not, but I would.
I think, like that's seven to eight nine million dollars range over the course
of three years. If he gets a four year deal, my guests would
be it's for the like the MIDI mid level or less would be My guests
like, he takes long term security while a team goes. We want that
more digestible cap number. But I do think despite his offensive growth, which
has been super again forty eight percent from mid range on, I think it's
like thirty three attempts, it's not even if they're coming as floaters, like
that's not nothing, and you watch him and just like there's the IQ on
the ball to get to his spots. I will say more turnovers than assist
this year, and this has been that hasn't happened every year. But like
when you look at some of the passes he sorts, this isn't someone who
is even if you don't necessarily trust his handle. This isn't someone who's losing
the ball on his handle, Like he just throws a lot of questionable passes.
Some of that this year, I do think is owed to the confines
in which he works within Detroit's offense. But like that's a like that's it's
not a red flag, but it's something you need to consider where there's not
you know, multi dimensional decision making with him on the ball. But the
I think it will come down to how much do you believe in his ability
to score from that mid range area, again, not as a crutch,
but as a safety valven what he's done before his injury, you know,
for most of the season at that point, I think firmly puts him into
the mini MLI territory. Yeah, that's annoying because I had the Mini MLI
as like with the feels about right pay grade for him, though, if
you would like, did you come up with teams for him? I got
no teams. I think just broadly, I think like if you're gonna pay
him more than that, if you're gonna go maybe the full mid level,
you have to sort of view him as the like a Bruce Brown brought me
a different player, or a Gary Payton the second that was really like a
minimally threatening three point shot away from being like viable as a six man or
even a starter or a closer just because of like, you know, you
mentioned some of it, but like there are not a lot of guards that
are more difficult to keep off the offensive boards in the league like period,
and there are not a lot of guys that can you know, super high
steel rap. He's insanely active, super energetic, like messes the game up
for the other team when he's in there, does like so many good things
that you know, he's good on the defensive glass too. He's just awesome
at everything that involves you know, energy, effort, athleticism, like great
at that stuff. So like if you're gonna pay him nine or ten or
whatever the full mL is going to be, you sort of have to assume
that this abandonment of the three point shot this season is just like this is
what Detroit needed him to do this year or decided was the right call,
But this is not what he's going to be going forward. Because if if
that's not, if it is the case that he just is not going to
shoot threes, It's just never been harder for that type of player to like
do anything helpful on a good team. So I think, like there's a
lot to believe in. There's but there's just that one glaring issue. It
is it is encouraging that he has improved in other areas offensively, especially lately
like you mentioned, But I'm not going past the mini mid level, especially
if I'm a good team that like needs to needs him to give me like
fifteen eighteen minutes. If I am not really sure that I can get him
in and get him to just take threes at least right like even just the
threat of it would would help. He's not even it's not a threat.
Now he has to score, you know on offensive rebounds and cuts, which
he is good at, but that's just not to me sustainable. Where do
you see him going? What teams do you like him so any? I
have some that I think could pay him more than the mini emil E,
but the ones that I would be most there are a bunch of teams that
I think might throw him, maybe not a bunch, but would throw him
the mini Emily. But I think my three favorite spots would be Dallas,
Denver, depending on what happens with Bruce Brown, I don't think they're going
to be able to afford to keep him, and he's not again, he's
not a perfect approximation, but if you're losing Bruce Brown, your options are
going to be limited there. And then my other one would have been what
was my other one? Where's why didn't I write it's Oh Phoenix. I
thought it would be super interesting for him just because they don't need the shooting
and they could just get him moving away from the ball. And I think
if you want to play smaller for some of these teams, you mentioned his
defensive rebounding, like we've seen that rate ticked down, But you have to
look at some of the lineups he's in and like the people he's playing with
in the front court, the teams that I could see there are two teams
and so like he doesn't necessarily he lines perfectly with one of their time wins
that's Indie where they're just like kind of short on wings. He's six five,
so he's not like a true three. But you look at what he
can do positionally on defense, look at how they like to play or offense,
like they run a lot of just all out lineups. He's gonna have
plenty of space to work, and they like to get up and down the
floor when Tyrese Haliburton's in the game. So I could see them just being
like, we're not gonna get a really good wing in the free agent market.
We're looking to win now when we take this lottery pick two years,
twenty two million or whatever it is. Like I could see that team.
And I also thought about Utah. I don't know how committed they're gonna be
actually wanting to win next year, but you have so much cap space.
You don't really have a ton of wings, and it's just to provide some
stability or coherence to your perimeter defense. And we have because you have lowry
marketing. And there might be let's say they keep Kelly Olynnick around two,
that's gonna be a front court Like those are gonna be minutes you play,
you can play if you have both your front court spots. Yeah, maybe
it's an iffy fit with Walker Kessler, but even if you play Kessler and
Dlo together, you're always going to have three other shooters on the court with
them. So those were the two teams that I were like, could they
go the two year out, Like even if it's two years and twenty four
million or something, just because he fills a need, and I think for
the Pacers he fills a more urgent need because the Jazz aren't going to be
in a rush to really do anything there, and they do have a page
to monitor, but like they don't just have They don't have a ton of
wing prospects. Maybe they don't get maybe some in this year's draft, but
I think Indie would be a team I would keep my eye on if he's
gonna go for the minimid level or even the like, is there a non
taxpayermid level team that I could see like kind of coming through here. That's
where it gets like super challenging, is well, what's the non taxpayer because
it's Chicago, Like, is that a team that might look at him for
the actual nontax paymid level. I don't. I don't really know there.
They need more help on offense than they do defense actually, and so I
don't know that he would be like the best fit there. Uh, the
Lakers are only gonna have the miniml E. Miami probably only has the miniml
E. There's a lot of teams with only the mini mL EVE. This
year. That's the other team that makes this challengeing. It's like you either
have cap space or the mini mL E. Cleveland might have the full mL
E. But I don't love him for the three spot. I'd like someone
who's gonna shoot it. He doesn't. Yeah, he doesn't solve the problem
for them. Really, No, I mean that's gonna be the challenge.
It's just I think I'm trying to think of like where are the shot doctors,
you know, like maybe you get him to okay, see, maybe
you get the union. Yeah, yeah, somebody somebody to sort that out.
He's a guy. I think we both agree. He's a good player.
He's just that the shooting is just that's that's so if you had to
go we're spending so much time on breaking habitudialo right now. But I'm gonna
get so the over under is I'm is a eight million dollars a year.
You're taking the over the under on that, I'd go under, I'd go
under. I'm gonna take the over all, Right, he's gonna's not a
one year deal for twenty for twenty million dollars to somebody, Now, I'm
gonna win this. Uh, let's find another question. Here we're moving at
a batter pace. Oh, this one is built for you. It's from
s GA Stanka. Are the Kings going to win the Pacific Division? Asking
for a friend? Like, of course they are? Right? What they're
what are they? I looked this up. I got them. They're four
and a half up on Phoenix, which is the only team that I wouldn't
I mean, unless you think the Warriors are gonna go on a run.
But they're not allowed to win road game, so that's gonna be tough.
And they're they're four and a half, they're not allowed. You didn't know
that it's true, it's I mean, how else do you interpret what's happened
this year? And they have like they're not they're not gonna catch Denver.
But I think in that locker room they could convince themselves that, like that's
a possibility because they're four and a half back of Denver for the first the
number one seed, So I think I just that's where they're gonna be,
right, Like, what what would have to happen for them to Keaven Grant
was playing? I might be like, well, I could just see Phoenix
never losing again, even if they're only half asset, but yeah, yeah,
I mean I think the more because we know John Morant is coming back.
He had the most effective counseling ever that only needed like a week or
whatever it was to work. But like the bigger or the I don't even
know if it's spicy, but like, is are the King's gonna finish?
Like second or third in the Western Conference? Is the And I might even
say at this point, I'm just gonna be like, well, they're in
second right now, they're tied and lost Commorandes coming back for the Grizzlies,
But I think I might I'm picking the Kings to finish second anyway. The
Grizzlies don't have Steven Adams or Brandon Clark right now. And I also just
we know how I feel about the Grizzlies, Like I call them frauds every
chance that I get. So I think that they're they're not just gonna win
the Pacific. I think they're going to be the prohibitive two seed. And
I will say, I don't know if you saw that we we this podcast
published a podcast with Greg. I think people depending on the matchup, like
if they run into the Warriors, okay, but like what if it's the
Lakers. I know the Wolves have played them well this year, but it's
all been without Towns. I think if they have both their bigs available,
that gets iffy. But like I think people, at least through the first
round, there's gonna be a wake up call for a lot of people.
With the Kings, We've talked a lot, maybe not about the Kings,
but we've talked a lot about how their defense, despite not being good,
actually makes a lot of sense when you look at their shot profile, the
things they do well. The Heat are the only team in the league that
do a better job of defending opponents deep into the shot clock. I don't
know if that holds up in the playoffs, but like if it does,
there's a lot of low hanging fruit they gobble up that I think makes them,
when you have the best offense in the world, more threatening than meets
the eye. I guess yeah, I think I'm difficult Warriors fan. I've
been banging the drum on the location based effective field goal presentage for them all
year of how it's just like, yeah, their defense is bottom five,
but if you look at the shots they're allowing, it's could be fringe top
ten or whatever, like that is a real you know, we're three quarters
plus through, you know, eighty percent of the way through the season or
whatever it is, and like that, that's still that's a real thing to
me. I think in a lot of ways, all you can do on
defense is just limit high expected value shots, and the Kings are pretty good
at that. But then I just run up against the like the zoom out,
you know, fact of you're you need Sabonus on the floor to run
this great offense. I mean, generally speaking, I think he's an awesome
offensive player. Like he's just so good. I'm doing all NBA teams right
now, and like it's killing me to figure out a way to get him
on there. I don't know if I can do it as a third team
center. But he's just not a good rim protector. He's just not good
at it. And you're gonna combine that with I think the Kings are generally
gonna have at least one other suspect defender on the court, and and that's
just they're gonna have to win, you know, one thirty five to one
thirty, and they're just that doesn't seem to happen in the playoffs, So
I don't know what the matchup is where I would clearly favor them in the
first round. I think, I think in most cases I would pick them
to lose a first round series most likely. But and it's just because I'm
struggling to remember a team with a defense this bad, even though there's underlying
stuff that suggests it's not quite that bad that I would feel good about picking
to win a playoff series, you know what I mean? Like, I
got two ideas working, and I'm just defaulting too. I don't believe in
the defense. So let's do this Kings versus Timberwolves. Can I flip a
coin on that one? I think? I mean the Kings. The Kings
should win. That they should win that right, Okay, maybe that's one
I would I think they could win. If that's the two seven Kings versus
Mavericks, I would pick the Maps to win that series. Really, Yeah,
the Kings actually like might be able to defend for a little bit,
and they how are they defending the Mavericks? Explain how h davy On Mitchell
will probably have to play, which would really hurt their offense. Yeah,
I mean, I don't I don't love the Mavericks, but if you're telling
me that this is gonna be an offensive series, I'm gonna pick the team
that has Luca and Kyrie irving based although like there's more. It feels like
there's more variability caked into Dallas's offense because it's so perimeter driven, where like
between Sabonus, Daron Fox's blistering spee, even what Monk has done on drives
that there might just and like even the off boss stuff that's happening, they
have more avenues to score. I would argue the Kings can score one hundred
and forty points per game in more ways than the Mavericks. Does that make
sense? I guess. So I just think that the way the Mavericks can
do it seems more likely to me. I just I look, I don't
want to shot on the Kings. We just said they're gonna win the division.
Can Yeah, you wanted to pick out another question? Yeah, so
this one, well, I just kind of mentioned the all NBA thing,
So because I want to have a conversation with you about this. This from
Old Dirty Dasher. So Kawhi has played forty one games. Lebron has played
forty seven Katie has forty two, Kawai should be considered an All NBA team,
It should be eligible for an All NBA team. I will say there
is no like minimum threshold as far as I'm aware. I do know that
in the will be well, yeah, maybe, and that's probably a good
thing. But so generally speaking, the fewest games that anyone's ever made an
All NBA team playing you gotta go way back to Gus Johnson in nineteen sixty
five played forty one in the last Lebron played forty five in twenty twenty one,
but that was the COVID season, so there are fewer games. Dwayne
Wade lockout season and eleven twelve played forty nine. Basically, you got to
play like minimum forty nine or fifty. So that's historically there's no codified rule
on that, and I am struggling mightily to pick all NBA teams right now
for an article I'm working on for Bleacher Report, because there's so many guys
that are in the low to mid forties that may or may not hit that
fifty game threshold, and three of them are are here. U I will
probably probably hit it because there's only two or three back to backs left for
the Clippers, and he's been playing every game, But what is your what
is your thought on that? Like I guess, so really it gets to
what do you think the criteria for all NBA even are. So I'm I
don't know if you separate it all from MVP, but I'm more inclined to
weight availability when it comes to value in the MVP discussion because that is such
a big part of value, whereas all MBA I view it is just like
you're trying to find the best players, and if they've played a reasonable amount
of time, I think it might be like sixteen hundred minutes or something.
For me maybe seventeen hundred and so I look at total minutes more than I
look at games played for all NBA and even MVP, and so like right
now Kawai has paid played a fewer minutes still then Lebron, steph NKD.
I think he'll probably surpass at least two of those guys in KD and Lebron.
Am I gonna pick him over Kadi and Lebron? It depends. It
will depend a little bit on the minute threshold. But he's been an absolute
killer for you know, like you said. He started playing in every game
minus back to backs since December fifth, so that's been thirty seven games during
that stretch. Five attempts from three per game, shooting forty four percent,
almost twenty six points, almost four assists, one point five steals. He's
just been shooting an absurd percent. Inside the arc. He looks like for
the most part, Kauai. There are still games where you go through and
it's like oh, but for the most part he looks a lot like dominant,
and so if he ends up, if it comes down to I think
if we're talking about Durant, because positions matter in all MBA, Durant,
Lebron, and Kauai is like, I think Kauai is probably the most likely
to make it at this point because I don't know when Durand and Lebron is
coming back, and so if it comes down to you can't fit all three
of these guys in as of right now. As someone who hasn't gone through
a teams yet, and you and I will do podcasts on it, we
should probably do that, like the beginning of April or whatever, I think
Kawai is going to get priority to me. He continues to play in every
game, and I don't think he's been like, I don't know if the
nature of this question suggests that he's been dismissed from I don't think he's been
dismissed from the discussion. I think he's right there for sure. Yeah,
I haven't dismissed him because I mean, I had this. It's so funny
we have this question because I had this exact issue of like can I because
I look at you similarly to how you do. It's like just who are
the best guys that played? You know enough basically, and you cannot make
an argument that Kauai is to not make this team the seventh best forward in
the league, Like that's insane. You know, he's he's closer to the
seventh. He's probably inside the seventh best player discussion, like full stop if
he's out there and you know healthy. So I think, yes, he
should be eligible for me to feel good about it, this thing I'm working
on, he's I really need to feel good he's gonna get the fifty games
because that's my like arbitrary cutoff that I've I've said, right, and I
get that, but but like even Durant, because Durant let's say Durant doesn't
play another game. How do we keep Durant off of an All NBA team
based on, like, when he was healthy, what he did and he's
gonna play like, I mean, he insulted Edmund Sumner, So that's how
you keep Yeah, well, it's not an all the All NBA Best Teammate
award, it's are the best tactful evaluation of your teammates award. But yeah,
I mean I think I think the All NBA team is really more and
this is such a like a cliche thing, but it's more like when you
look back at this season, who were just the best guys that year?
It's not it's totally separate to me from like, there's a cumulative value aspect
to the MVP race that I just don't think it is quite the same for
All NBA. So you get to fifty or anywhere in that neighborhood, I'm
good with it. What is interesting is could the results be fudged if the
league does what it typically does and just makes these centers eligible at forward?
Where I don't think because I don't people aren't going to be like clamoring to
get Gobet on there. But between Auto Bio Yo Kitchen bid SA bonus if
those guys are eligible forward, if Anthony Davis is eligible, So those are
like between those five players, five players the bonus Bama Baio Davis yogach an
embide. If there's a rush to get all five of those guys who have
played more minutes, well, Davis is like kind of around Kawai territory.
But to get all five of those guys on an all NBA team, that
then is where I think you start to look at okay, like is that
gonna cost Kawai or Kevin durandam Lebron because I think right now the only forward
locks for me, correct me if I'm wrong, Jayson Tatum and Jannis And
then like that's like locks, and I think people are gonna there's gonna be
cases made for Siaka rightful cases, They're gonna be cases made for Julius Randall.
I don't think I do you think Jimmy Butler's a forward? Jimmy Butler
should be on one of those teams. Yeah, So like it's let's I
got a sub question. This is from not Grant Hughes at all, one
hundred percent. I swear so and yogatch An Embiid in some order on first
and second team. I have Yo gets first team right now. You could
talk me out of that really easily and have him beat on there. That's
how close it is. But you have to pick a third team center,
and we're not going to fudge positions, and you've got to choose between Davis,
Sabonis, and say and throw Bam in there, because I think those
are the only three you'd seriously look at. What do you well, I'm
picking Anthony Davis, and I feel horrible about it because I don't know if
he's going to get the games threshold that I've set. But like I mean,
Jesus Christ, like he's third in the fourth in the league, right
behind Embiid and Raptor and just you know, basically has been a defensive player
of the year when he's been on the court. I just can't And that's
again I said, we're not going to shoot on the Kings that short Sabonis
in a big way. But I have to put Anthony Davis is my third
center. Can you talk me out of that? Yes? And I know
I said that it doesn't necessarily matter about that, but like Sabonis does have
like an eight hundred minute advantage at this point, which is quite sizeable,
and he is more of an offensive engine for his team than Davis is for
the Lakers. And you look at the solo minutes, He's always gonna need
to be on the court with another creator. Sabonis does not need to be.
Now, it's sort of flip plops when you're talking about defensively, he
needs to be insulated and Davis does not. But the Kings are winning regardless
of not insulating him very well. And I think it kind of proves that
having a better offense is more important. You want to have balance, but
it's more important than having a better defense. And I do think for as
good as Anthony Davis has been, especially for smaller stretches on offense, there's
a limit to how far he can carry an offense without a requisite amount of
talent and help around him that doesn't exist at least as narrowly for Sabonus.
To me, I think I would pick Sabonus over Davis at this point is
awfully and the minutes again I say it, don't wait it as much,
but when you're looking at if the cases are actually arguable and you're looking at
it's like statistically they're arguable, and then there's an eight hundred minute gap.
How are you not to you you would have to think my tie break here,
but you would have to think that Anthony Davis has been like substantially more
valuable to his team then, or better better excuse me this year then sabonus
to just ignore that eight hundred minute gap. Follow Up, the playoffs start
tomorrow and you get to pick one center who's not Embiid or Yokich and you
need to win a playoff series. Do you pick Davis or do you pick
Sabonis? Because I picked Davis, I might pick damn out of Bio.
You can pick Bam, you can pick This is a regular season award,
is what is what gets I'm just saying that Davis, Yes, I'm picking
up right. So that's why I'm having a hard time with this because I
think my criteria scus closer to that question, like just who's the guy you
got to have based on this year? And so to me, that's a
no brainer picking Davis over even over out of Baio. I think I mean
you gotta say, like, well, he's not he's gonna fall down in
game two and then be out for the rest of the series. Like,
yeah, I guess, but I just this is all this This is to
say all NBA, all NBA team criteria is really hard and hazy and fuzzy,
and it might even be trickier than MVP because you can't just count on
on this guy played twenty more games than that guy. Of course that's more
valuable. It's just it's real fuzzy. Yeah, that was a tough That
was a great two questions. Shout out to Old Dirty Dasher and not Not
Christ. Thanks. Do you want to take us out of here? Yeah?
Thanks for the questions. As always, everybody, if you have not
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