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Hello, and welcome to the Texas
Tribune Trip Cast for November ninth, ninth,

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twenty twenty two, the Day After
Election podcast, live and in studio.

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Welcome to everyone who has joined us
in the room and also to those

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watching us on the Lime live stream. My name is Matthew Watkins, Managing

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editor of News and Politics for the
Tribune, and this week I am joined

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by politics reporter James Bartergan. Hello, Hey, James. Demographics reporter Alexa

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Ua, good afternoon, and assistant
to the regional manager Evan Smith. Yes,

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I'm here to beg your groceries at
the end. That's right. Do

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you still work here? I don't
still work here. No, Actually I'm

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a ghost. All right. So
obviously we're talking about the election last night.

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It was simultaneously a fascinating and kind
of oddly routine election for Texas.

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Here we had Republicans kind of sweeping
easily in the statewide offices, growing their

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margins, you know, somewhat slightly
in the legislature and reaping the rewards of

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redistricting from twenty twenty one, but
they failed to reach I guess what you

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would maybe call their reach goals,
which would be, you know, winning

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three congressional seats in South Texas and
knocking off Lena Hidalgo, the Harris County

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Judge. All that to say,
you know, I still think a pretty

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successful night for the Republicans. We're
going to talk about all those different races

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and all those different things, but
I think we should start at the top

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of the ticket, where you know, for the last two years you could

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have said about Governor Greg Abbott that
at times he felt like a little bit

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like a man without a base,
a political base at least where you know,

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on the right, on the most
conservative wing of the party, the

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most trumpy wing of the party,
there were a lot of people who were

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unhappy with him, particularly with his
early actions on the pandemic. And then

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on the left you had Democrats very
upset over many things, most recently what

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they were portraying as political stunts on
the order. Then we come to election

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night and he wins by eleven points, and I think you could argue,

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and maybe we will argue about this
later, that he might have had the

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second most successful night of a Democrat, I mean, of a Republican nationwide.

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That's that eleven point margin, you
know, way bigger than the margin

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that Ted Cruz beat Betteau O'Rourke four
years earlier. So, Evan, I'm

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gonna go to you first. Were
you surprised by how thoroughly and easily Abbott

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defeated a Rourke? I was,
although the outcome is not that surprising.

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We thought that Abbot and also Dan
Patrick and Ken Paxson would win, and

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they won. We thought the margin
would be a little narrower, and we

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were wrong. I actually think there's
the election says more about a roork than

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it does about Abbot. I'm sorry
to not accept the premise of your question.

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Betoo Rourke raised about seventy million dollars
maybe a little bit less, which

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is about seventy million more that Lupe
Valdez raised four years earlier, and the

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margin in those two races was basically
the same. Donors could have spent about

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seventy million dollars less to get the
same margin they got four years earlier.

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I mean, the premise that our
work was going to win this race was

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one that was hard for me to
accept. All along, Governor had a

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good night, Democrats had a bad
night, but it wasn't entirely surprising,

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you know, Yeah, James I
think if you look at the national press,

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the narrative coming out of last night
is that it was a pretty surprisingly

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good night for Democrats. That is
not I don't think. I don't think

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you can make that argument in Texas. What do you think the difference is?

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Why did they not fare as well
here as they did in other parts

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of the country. What's a couple
of things. I mean, there's systemic

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barriers for Democrats to win in Texas. I mean, they've been out of

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statewide power for nearly three decades.
District thing and jerry mandering also, you

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know, plays a major role.
A lot of those races that were competitive

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or that the Republicans were targeting had
been drawn to benefit Republicans and make those

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more competitive for them. So in
certain sense, they don't have the same

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advantages that national Democrats have, and
they have a lot of the same disadvantages,

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so it's tough for them. But
I mean, also, the party

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infrastructure is not super strong, and
I think it's probably questionable how much stronger

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it can get, particularly after a
rough night like last night, where people

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have spent money in big races like
better Works, multiple races at this point,

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really and you know, something that
we were talking about just this morning

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is just like, where's the funding
going to come from for future democratic races,

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whether that state house races or state
wide races. I think that's going

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to be a problem, and it's
a challenge they've been facing for a while,

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but now it just gets even worse. Maybe. Yeah. I mean,

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we've talked about on previous podcasts about
why is anyone sending Rochelle Garza any

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money? Why is you know,
this supposedly very vulnerable attorney general candidate.

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Why is she not getting the support
of the party where it seems like they

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I'm sorry, the vulnerable candidate of
course being Ken Paxton, not Garza.

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Why why is there not that party
support? And you know, I think

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someone could answer that and say,
look at these numbers. She lost by

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nine point nine percent. She lost
by just a little bit smaller of a

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margin than becho Ork lost, And
maybe I was wrong all along. Maybe

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that would have been a waste of
money. Maybe that money was better spent

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going to other states where it's a
little bit of both. I mean,

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it's the party infrastructure and organization that
I was talking about, because I mean,

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she she wasn't a super strong candidate
to begin with, it was her

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first time running for any elected office, and trying to jump into running for

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state white office when you're her first
time around, it's very very difficult.

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I mean, it's a big state. You got to have a lot of

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money to do it. And when
you jump into that with no name,

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I D no political experience in the
past. I mean, it's an uphill

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battle. But then to your other
question, I mean, like would and

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you could sort of see it when
she was here for Tripfest, she kind

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of put her other panelists on blast
at her at her panel and said,

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like I am the best shot that
we've got, and like, why aren't

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people funding me? Like I'm a
Latina, I'm a woman, Like I've

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got a vulnerable opponent. Why aren't
people funding me? Which I think sort

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of hurt some people's feelings. I
mean it's not great to, you know,

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sort of tick off other panelists on
there, But I think it.

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I mean, she had a valid
point and maybe some of the seventy million

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dollars that were going to bed or
Rourke could have gone to rachelle Garza and

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maybe it makes a difference, but
maybe it doesn't. I'm not sure that

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she was the best candidate. We
should also know turnout though, I mean,

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if you look at we know that
turnout during mid terms tends to be

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lower than these sort of high watermark
presidentials, which isn't great for Texas because

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we sort of barely have half a
registered voters vote in the presidential But if

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you look at I was looking at
the numbers just before coming up here,

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but twenty fourteen, the turnout was
in the thirty percent mark. Twenty eighteen

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it got up to about fifty three
percent right now, and the governor's race

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turnout is around forty something. I
think it might be forty six last I

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looked, So, I mean,
sure, we had close to the same

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raw number of votes from twenty eighteen, but with more registered voters, turnout

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is actually lower than it was in
twenty eighteen. And I think a lot

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of us went into this election thinking
it would maybe compared to eighteen in terms

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of turnout. It didn't get there
at all. You could argue, you

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know, would folks have turned out
had there been more investment in an exciting

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candidate that they could have gotten behind? Sure, but I think it's hard

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to not to those numbers. Did
not think that Democrats really can't do well

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unless we hit something close to fifty
percent turn out, and that's just not

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normal for a midterm election. Let
me just jump in and say a word

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on behalf of Governor Abbot, and
then say something about the Democrats, who

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I actually think maybe more than your
question had a good night overall, even

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if they didn't have a good night
on the statewide level. So I don't

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like newspaper endorsements. I think they're
stupid. I think newspapers should stop endorsing

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candidates. The newspapers won't listen to
me. I read the endorsements, even

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though I think they should stop doing
them. And I read the endorsements and

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the governor's race. Houston, San
Antonio, Austin endorsed Betu A. Rourke,

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Dallas and Fort Worth endorsed Governor Abbot. And there was a line in

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each of those endorsements in Dallas and
Fort Worth that was almost the same and

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it said, essentially these words,
Texas is a prosperous state. It's the

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economy. Stupid. Governor Abbot did
what he did despite the many issues that

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Democrats thought that they could prevail on
abortion, guns, what have you.

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Because the economy of the state is
healthy. It's resilient. When we have

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bad times, the economy holds on. In good times, our economy takes

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off. The unemployment rate in Texas
is low. Sometimes the simplest answer is

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the obvious answer. Why did Greg
Abbott beat bet to a Rourke Because the

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economy trumps everything else. You may
not like that. Other people may not

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like that, But to me,
that's the explanation. I'd also say that

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what we've talked about Alexa and I
talk about this a lot, is that

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geography is as much destiny in Texas
right now as demography is. Rural Texas

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turns out to vote in extraordinary numbers
and saves the bacon of Republican state wide

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candidates. It did in twenty eighteen, it did in twenty twenty. It

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did again in twenty twenty two.
Whatever margins bet to urk ran up into

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urban counties or in South Texas wherever
the suburbs were effectively a draw. Republican

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and Democrats fight to a draw.
I think it was a little bit less

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the case this time than in the
last election cycle twenty twenty. Rural Texas

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turns out an extraordinary numbers delivers votes
for Republicans, and at the end of

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the day, if Democrats can't figure
out how to talk to rural Texans,

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they cannot be competitive statewide. It
is a very short conversation, but on

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the Democratic side, I will say
this state wides turned out badly. But

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if you had told me Greg Abbott
was going to win by double digits and

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yet Myra Flores would lose her congressional
race in the Valley and the Democrats would

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essentially hold on in South Texas,
including winning the Eddie Lucio seat Morgan La

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Montia narrowly beating Adam Hinehjoso, I
wouldn't have believed it. If you had

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told me that bettu Rourke would win
Harris County by only about nine points,

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but Lena Hidalgo and the other county
wide Democrats would also hold on, I

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wouldn't have believed it. It was
a weird night. The top of the

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ticket did not necessarily predict everything else. And by the way, as you

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say correctly, this legislature looks almost
exactly like the d in terms of the

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partisan breakdown. They did redistricting and
they played defense to shore up Republican seats,

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but they underperformed. Even by that
standard. They only added one Republican

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in the House and one in the
Senate. I don't. I mean,

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I think Democrats actually could find places
where they thought it was a better night

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than counterpoint. I mean, should
Democrats be playing defense in South Texas?

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Should Democrats be playing defense in Houston? No? But you know what,

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like take the win, right?
Yeah, But if we're looking at this

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from a big picture standpoint, about
is Texas becoming a more competitive state politically

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over the long term? No,
Well, then there you go. I

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think there's a lot of Democrats who
believed, you know, a week ago,

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that the answer to that was yes. And I think if you look

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at the history of Greg Abbott in
particular, you know, he wins in

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twenty fourteen by over twenty percentage points. He twenty sixteen happens, Trump wins

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what nine points something like that.
Yeah, twenty eighteen happens Abbott wins by

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around twelve percentage points. Beto Arourke
comes extremely close. If Beto loses by

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six in this race, I think
you can look and you can say that

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trend line is still going on.
You talk about the urban or the rural

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firewall, you can look at the
way the state is changing. It is

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a state that is becoming much less
rural, it's becoming more suburban and urban

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areas where Democrats have been growing.
Of course, demographics as well, the

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state becoming, you know, the
less. You know, the white non

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Hispanics are now the not the largest
demographic group in the state. But then

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you have to kind of pause after
this, and Alexi, you talked about

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how the turnout did not match twenty
eighteen levels, and you, I think,

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have to begin wondering what was the
outlier here? And you can look

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at twenty eighteen where that turnout was
so much higher, and it starts to

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look more like an outlier than something
plain out in a trend. And I

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think if you're a Democrat thinking long
term about this state, that's got to

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be pretty concerning to you. I
think if you're a Democrat, you're kind

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of wishing in some ways that Trump
was on the ballot in one way or

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another this selection, because if you
look at the margins over time in a

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lot of these counties, it narrows
when people are either reacting to Trump because

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he's on the ballot, or it's
in the midterm election reacting to that first

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term of his as president. I
mean, it really is a driving factor,

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and without that, there's not a
whole lot to write home about.

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I also think, though, to
Evan's point about this weird night where you

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had some outcomes that were good for
Democrats of top less gray at the bottom

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or the opposite, we should also
note that this is the first state mid

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term without straight ticket voting. And
I think in twenty eighteen we saw these

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sort of sweeps of Democrats in a
lot of these urban counties and people notice

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that, but guess what, we
had straight ticket voting, and so people

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could select at the top and vote
for every single Democrat on that ballot,

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and that helped them. And this
time around they didn't have that. Let's

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suck a little bit more about Greg
Abbott here. So you disagree with my

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idea that he might have been the
second most successful, well, I think.

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I mean you're talking about Rod DeSantis
being for the most successful. Well,

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I think he did fine. And
if I'm Greg Abbott or I'm the

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Avid Political Operation and I'm looking at
twenty four, I absolutely think that the

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result last night positions him to run
for president. I think it's going to

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be a crowded field. And look, he's had a successful run with an

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economy, you know, ninth largest
economy in the world or whatever it is

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that's consistently been, you know,
at the top of all the rankings.

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Like I think, I just don't
think it was about him only last night.

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If you look at what happened in
Pennsylvania, doctor Oz obviously not performing

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well. If you look at what
seems to be happening, I guess it's

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maybe too early to tell. In
Arizona and the governor's race, for instance,

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you see a situation where some of
the most Trump aligned Republicans, some

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of the more non traditional Republicans,
did much more poorly than the Dysantis and

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Abbot, who have both pursued very
conservative policies over the term over their times

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as governor, but have not kind
of stylistically been the same as Trump.

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And I can have it, Bear
hugged him the way. That's exact,

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people, you're referring to it exactly. And so if I'm Abbot right now,

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what I'm saying is that I just
showed you with DeSantis. Maybe you

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don't say that part out loud,
how Republicans can be successful, you know,

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across the country moving forward in kind
of a post Trump world, and

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the way that Trump was a drag
on the ticket for Republicans in Texas in

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twenty eighteen and twenty sixteen, in
twenty twenty probably as well. When you

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remove him from that equation and put
me at the top of that ticket,

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we do a lot better. Well, I think it's easier said than done

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when Trump is not running in the
same election cycle. But when he gets

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in, I mean, he just
like sucks up all the oxygen out of

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the room. Like I don't know
if that will be a successful pitch.

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Like once, if President Trump decides
to jump into the presidential in twenty twenty

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four, I don't think that Abin
and DeSantis can clearly make that argument to

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voters because Trump's base is so strong
and so loud that I just don't I

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just don't know. I mean that
that may be the point, and I

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did see Republicans talking about that,
like we you know, this night proves

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that we've got to move on from
Trump if Republicans want to be successful,

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But I just I think it's a
lot harder, it's a lot easier said

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than done. And even run if
Trump runs I'm so glad you asked.

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See. I actually think there's a
much higher probability, and I think Trump

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is probably going to run now.
I've been thinking all along that Trump might

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not run, or if he did
run, he might not be the nominee.

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The latter still remains to be seen. It looks now like the former

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is gonna happen. He's teasing next
week as an announcement date for a presidential

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campaign. I think the probability,
or the possibility at least of DeSantis running

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regardless of what Trump does, is
high. I have a hard time imagining

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if Trump runs that Abbott runs.
I could be proven wrong about that,

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of course, but I just don't
know where the lane for him is right

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there, So we'll have to see. I mean, I totally agree with

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your point that well Trump, I
don't think Trump picks him as his VP

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if he runs against him in a
primary. I'm not sure that he would

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be Trump's VP anyway. Trump's already
gonna win Texas to the next presidential race.

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Abbot doesn't really get him anything.
Carrie Lake gets him something. Now

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she has to win the governor's races
this time. Christy nom well picking a

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woman probably helps him in some respects
regardless of where from. But again,

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is Aba gonna run to your question, is Aba gonna run if Trump runs?

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I don't know. I don't know. Yeah, Well, speaking of

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people who run, Vetto O'Rourke has
now run for three races. That's what

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you call a segue. Yes,
thank you, thank you very much,

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thank you very much. He has
now run three campaigns in four years.

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He has lost them all. He
has kind of been the standard bearer,

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the kind of de facto leader of
the Democratic Party during that entire time.

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This, as you said, Evan
was not a good loss. I mean,

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he basically performed as well as the
unfunded Lupe Valdez in twenty eighteen.

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Is this the end for him?
I think you can read an excellent story

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on Texas Tribune about this very subject. You know, who knows who knows

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politics is a crazy thing and that
people can come back from basically the dad

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and go on and have really successful
I think, you know, even his

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comments last night talking about this may
be the last time I'm up here talking

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in front of you all. The
next person, the next door work that

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will be on the ballot might be
my wife Amy. That was a joke.

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But you know, just comments like
that I think indicate to you or

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to everyone really that he may want
to take a break. And to be

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fair, I mean, running campaigns, particularly statewide campaigns in the state as

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big as Texas is really friggin hard, and so like, he probably does

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want to go home and spend time
with his family, with his wife and

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kids. So you can't really blame
the guy. But also just politically,

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it might be good for him,
not just personally and for his mental health,

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but it might be good for him
to just like give give it room

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to breathe a little bit. Right, People do have bit or work fatigue.

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Voters certainly had it, and at
this point voters had made up their

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mind even before really the real start
of the race about better o' work and

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whether they liked him or not.
So you know, you give it some

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time. The positive name I D
you know, goes down a little,

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but you know what goes down more
the negative ID and people might just the

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same way that now people talk about
President George W. Bush in some democratic

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areas of the country and they say, gosh, we really missed that guy.

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But you know, when he was
president, they didn't really they didn't

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really like him. So if you
give it some time, you know,

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maybe he rehabs his image. Maybe
he reba rehabs his name. Also depending

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on what he does, maybe he
runs a nonprofit, Maybe he goes,

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I don't know, to Wall Street. Maybe he becomes an organizer or a

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big time fundraiser, fundraiser for the
party. God knows they really need both

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of those. So, you know, can he is it over? I

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don't think that it's over. He's
still a big name. It would be,

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I think, unwise to completely send
him out to pasture. But what

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does he do next? I think
that's that's the big question right now.

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He's basically the Buffalo Bills and that
he was very, very promising and got

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there and got very close a couple
of times. But I think he's Harold

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Stassen, which is a reference that
none of you on this stage are going

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to get because you're too young.
But I think he's basically somebody who ran

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and ran and ran and ran and
ran and ran, and now he can't

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run anymore. I don't think he
could run again. I think it's over.

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I think this is it. I
think I take him at his word

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last night and the party needs new
people. Where is everybody else? Yeah,

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and better's defense, It's not like
there are other people lining up to

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run for governor that he kind of
cleared out of the way. It was

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basically him or knowing it almost felt
like, right, he basically had to

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be convinced to run this time because
nobody else was running and the rest of

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the ticket wasn't a super strong ticket, right, And so he came around

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at a time in twenty eighteen where
they were desperate, they had nobody.

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And remember in twenty eighteen, I
think the Texas Tribune pool showed that,

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like nobody knew who Bette or work
was when he started that race, and

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he barnstormed the state and then people
he sort of captured that lightning in a

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bottle, but nobody knew who he
was. So to his credit, I

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mean, he did sort of revitalize
this like minority party that just had nobody

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to challenge. Ted Cruz didn't have
a bench, still doesn't have a bench,

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and he fulfilled a certain role over
these last four years. But I

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think there are major questions of could
that money, those record breaking amounts of

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money that he raised, could they
have been put to better use by other

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Democrats and also by bettel Ark himself. Like if we're talking about like organization

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and fundraising, like some of that
money, I think other Democrats and other

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Democrats down ballot from him would argue, hey man, you could have you

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know, spread the cheese around a
little bit. How are should Democrats be

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about their bench? Right now?
What bench? I mean, it's interesting

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to have watched Bethel run for two
statewide offices now and kind of run separate

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from the party sort of. I
mean, they would have these sort of

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events with the candidates, but that
was never part of them. I don't

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think that I'm not sure that they
There was a lot of like tension between

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them, but they weren't operating together
in any sort of way. But I

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also, I mean, the thing
is, it's like, what are the

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pathways to a bench for Democrats in
Texas? Really? The only thing are

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county judge positions, right, I
mean, how there's nothing you can't go

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much higher than at the state ledge. If you're in a seat that's been

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jerrymandered, you know, you're just
trying to hold on to it. I

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just don't know that there's even a
whole lot of field on which for on

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which Democrats can even build up the
bench. I think there's some interesting members

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of the congressional delegation that you could
look to. You know, Colin Allred,

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Veronica and Escobar has made a lot
of these. Lizzie Fletcher has shown

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00:23:53.759 --> 00:24:00.079
an ability to run and you know, more conservative leaning districts. Obviously that's

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not true of her district anymore.
I think one of the questions there though,

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is, of course it would take
a lot to convince them to leave

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their comfortable seats and all because being
in Congress is such a great thing.

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00:24:12.759 --> 00:24:17.000
Well, you know, it's you
don't lose. They all they are all

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now in districts that they can already's
got little kids, and he might like

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the idea of being back in Texas
if he could figure out how to get

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00:24:22.759 --> 00:24:25.200
himself from there to hear. Look, I think all Read and Escobar are

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00:24:25.200 --> 00:24:30.319
both really talented Democrats like O'Rourke,
escobars from El Paso. No one from

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El Paso has ever been elected statewide
in the history of Texas. Would be

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00:24:34.880 --> 00:24:38.599
interesting, actually, if she made
a run at that. I think those

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are two good suggestions. I think
we're past the Castros, probably as statewide

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candidates maybe, right, I know
there was there's always been some discussion of

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that. You know, I'm curious
to come back to Lena Hidalgo about what

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surviving this near death experience last night
means for her. Right, She's an

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enormous talented She has controversies, as
everybody in elective office does from time to

348
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time around her, and that was
actually what put her on the back of

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her heels in part this election cycle. But she she cheated death in this

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cycle, so she gets another four
years in this job. She's like barely

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00:25:17.039 --> 00:25:22.680
thirty one. I think there's been
a lot of assumption to Alexis point about

352
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local officials potentially being and also,
she's the chief executive of a county that,

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with four point six million people,
Harris County would be the twenty fifth

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largest state if it were its own
state. You know, why did Lena

355
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Hidagg run to gov for governor?
She's already governor. She's governor of Harris

356
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County, right, So I mean, I think you have to assume that

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she is potentially somebody in the mix
among the mayors that would be the other

358
00:25:47.359 --> 00:25:53.000
category of people, you know,
Sylvester Turner, Yeah, Eric Johnson eh,

359
00:25:53.480 --> 00:25:56.440
sounds so excited. Well, I'm
just saying like, if you're asking,

360
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I mean truth tests this, are
those people potential state wide candidates anytime

361
00:26:00.720 --> 00:26:07.839
soon? But was I mean,
was Bethel a potential state white candidate the

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first time he ran? No?
And I agree with you and James's point.

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Nobody knew who he was. I
think, by the way, that's

364
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one of the differences between twenty eighteen
and twenty twenty two. People said,

365
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well, he did so well last
time, why didn't do so well this

366
00:26:18.880 --> 00:26:21.559
time? Because last time he caught
everybody off guard, and this time he

367
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caught nobody off guard. The fact
that nobody knew who he was the first

368
00:26:25.400 --> 00:26:27.279
time was a feature and not a
bug. Yeah, blank slate, right,

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I mean, I think are there
other people in the delegation for whom

370
00:26:30.400 --> 00:26:33.359
that same or to whom that same
thing could apply? All reads an example

371
00:26:33.440 --> 00:26:37.519
sort of has a great resume,
you know, Yeah, but you know

372
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you mentioned the Castro. Is the
reason that Castro's time passed was because they

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00:26:41.079 --> 00:26:45.480
kept it seemed like they kept looking
at races and saying this is past year

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and then passed And you know,
joa king Castro I think still has a

375
00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:52.799
strong presence in the state, but
he's kind of rising through the ranks of

376
00:26:52.799 --> 00:26:56.599
Congress. Of course, you know
that, you know, seems unlikely that

377
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Democrats will continue to be in control
of the House. But you know,

378
00:27:00.319 --> 00:27:06.640
you also it also has to be
a situation where someone is willing to step

379
00:27:06.720 --> 00:27:10.799
up and take that risk, and
there are a number of talented people in

380
00:27:10.799 --> 00:27:12.680
the LED slates roll though it's very
hard to go from a House seat to

381
00:27:12.759 --> 00:27:18.000
a statewide office. You know,
I was the editor of Texas Monthly when

382
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we published a story that saying Raphael
an Chia is going to be the first

383
00:27:22.200 --> 00:27:25.440
Hispanic governor of Texas. That was
like two thousand and six. It's sixteen

384
00:27:25.519 --> 00:27:27.200
years later. They still can't get
him to run for anything other than his

385
00:27:27.279 --> 00:27:32.400
seat. Trey Martinez Fisher is going
to run for Attorney General any minute now,

386
00:27:32.519 --> 00:27:36.000
just wait. Leaving aside the question
of whether either of those folks would

387
00:27:36.000 --> 00:27:38.960
have been successful, or anybody from
the House would be successful, there are

388
00:27:38.960 --> 00:27:41.920
a lot of people who have been
mentioned to your point about the Castros overtime

389
00:27:41.960 --> 00:27:45.839
as potentially that white candidates who for
whatever the reasons, don't jump off.

390
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You got to run. You can't
win if you don't run. You might

391
00:27:48.599 --> 00:27:52.079
not win if you do, but
you certainly won't win if you don't.

392
00:27:52.319 --> 00:27:57.400
And we wrote a story before the
end of like the filing period last year,

393
00:27:57.920 --> 00:28:02.079
which was like, why is better
or running again at the top of

394
00:28:02.119 --> 00:28:04.119
the ticket for this party that's supposed
to be like the you know, the

395
00:28:04.920 --> 00:28:08.000
Party of diversity, right, And
we talked a little bit about like the

396
00:28:08.119 --> 00:28:11.559
lack of a democratic bench, and
a couple of things go into that.

397
00:28:11.680 --> 00:28:15.119
One is that, yeah, people
don't want to shoot their shots because they've

398
00:28:15.160 --> 00:28:18.400
got pretty safe seats where they're doing
a lot of the things that they want

399
00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:23.200
to do. But also that like
there just isn't sort of the infrastructure for

400
00:28:23.240 --> 00:28:30.319
them to take two three bites at
the apple like there sometimes is for Republicans.

401
00:28:30.359 --> 00:28:33.319
Like you know, Eva Guzman is
a good example. I think they

402
00:28:33.400 --> 00:28:37.039
put her away or can packs and
put her cam packs and put her away

403
00:28:37.079 --> 00:28:41.039
in the attorney general primary this year, but she's still like in the like

404
00:28:41.400 --> 00:28:45.119
ether of like Texas politics. And
I don't think it's a big secret that

405
00:28:45.200 --> 00:28:48.680
Greg Abbott and Date Feelin really would
like to keep her around and ever be

406
00:28:48.440 --> 00:28:55.000
a state wide candidate and another another
time, but like that opportunity isn't offered

407
00:28:55.079 --> 00:28:57.799
to democrats a whole lot, particularly
democrats of color. You know, you

408
00:28:57.839 --> 00:29:02.680
get a lot of better bettle works, you get a lot of Wendy Davis's,

409
00:29:03.440 --> 00:29:06.759
Mike Collier, we haven't talked about
mikeller also a three time loser at

410
00:29:06.759 --> 00:29:08.960
this point, stay right, right, right. Candidates of color don't really

411
00:29:10.200 --> 00:29:14.119
get that opportunity. It's like once
you once you lose, you're you're done.

412
00:29:14.839 --> 00:29:18.039
So it is, it is difficult. I think there has to be

413
00:29:18.119 --> 00:29:22.000
some infrastructure and organizing to allow people
to take multiple shots at it. And

414
00:29:22.039 --> 00:29:25.960
you also, like it's also on
the candidates, like you gotta you gotta

415
00:29:25.960 --> 00:29:29.680
be good at politics, you know, like I think counterpoint to your Lena

416
00:29:29.720 --> 00:29:33.160
id allgo thing like is she that
talented? Like I'm sure she can.

417
00:29:33.400 --> 00:29:37.559
She's governed well, I think,
uh in Harris County, but the politics,

418
00:29:37.599 --> 00:29:40.640
like she's not very good at the
politics. Like that race I don't

419
00:29:40.680 --> 00:29:44.920
think should have been as close as
it was. Uh, she she really

420
00:29:44.960 --> 00:29:51.039
got like out outran uh in terms
of like Meeler's campaign did so much damage

421
00:29:51.079 --> 00:29:53.640
before they started responding, And you
really got to wise up if you want

422
00:29:53.640 --> 00:29:57.200
to run a successful state wide campaign, which is the same thing that happens

423
00:29:57.240 --> 00:30:00.920
to like most of these like Democratic
camp it is, which is they swing

424
00:30:00.000 --> 00:30:03.440
so far to the left by the
time you want to swing back to the

425
00:30:03.480 --> 00:30:07.319
middle where you're probably gonna win in
a state like Texas, too, it's

426
00:30:07.319 --> 00:30:10.880
too far. You've gone too far. And that's probably what happened to Betto

427
00:30:10.920 --> 00:30:12.720
too. He was this blank slate
to everybody in twenty eighteen. He swung

428
00:30:12.759 --> 00:30:17.559
way far to the left during the
presidential run, and in twenty twenty two

429
00:30:17.559 --> 00:30:18.799
everyone knew what he was about,
or thought they knew what he was about,

430
00:30:18.839 --> 00:30:22.039
and they weren't buying what he was
selling. Yeah, you know,

431
00:30:22.079 --> 00:30:23.920
I was struck at how at the
top of the ticket. In the state

432
00:30:23.920 --> 00:30:29.880
wide races you didn't see much of
a drop off between Abbot and Patrick and

433
00:30:30.440 --> 00:30:34.039
Paxton. You know, Abbot won
by or is up currently by around eleven

434
00:30:34.079 --> 00:30:37.920
points. Paxton. Last I looked
right before we came in here, it

435
00:30:37.960 --> 00:30:41.920
was nine point nine points. That's
not a big difference. In Harris County,

436
00:30:41.920 --> 00:30:45.000
there was quite a bit of a
drop off, as you mentioned.

437
00:30:45.039 --> 00:30:51.119
You said, Betto won that by
eight percent, and Hidalgo at least this

438
00:30:51.160 --> 00:30:55.599
morning was leading by about one point
five percentage points. That's a pretty good

439
00:30:55.640 --> 00:30:59.000
drop off. You know who has
an even bigger margin than Abbott Patrick were

440
00:30:59.039 --> 00:31:03.559
passed it as Glenn Hay. You
know, some of the down ballot Republicans

441
00:31:03.559 --> 00:31:06.640
actually had margins wider than the ones
at the top. If I were buying

442
00:31:06.720 --> 00:31:11.039
stock right now looking ahead to the
next state wide elections, I think Hager

443
00:31:11.240 --> 00:31:14.319
is a buye, and I think
there are a couple of others who are

444
00:31:14.319 --> 00:31:17.839
probably buys also. I think you're
finally seeing the next generation of these folks

445
00:31:17.920 --> 00:31:22.160
emerge potentially. Yeah. And one
of the things that some of us like

446
00:31:22.240 --> 00:31:25.880
to do to get kind of the
generic party breakdown is look at the Supreme

447
00:31:25.920 --> 00:31:29.079
Court races, which are you know, races where very few people have any

448
00:31:29.119 --> 00:31:33.720
idea about any of the candidates on
the ballot, and most of those the

449
00:31:33.759 --> 00:31:37.920
GOP advantages about nine percentage points,
which is interesting because Abbott and really all

450
00:31:37.960 --> 00:31:45.200
the other Sideway candidates outperformed that that
baseline seemed notable. All right, let's

451
00:31:45.240 --> 00:31:51.160
pause very briefly for a commercial break. I'm going to read a few messages

452
00:31:51.200 --> 00:31:55.000
from our sponsors. Then we'll talk
about South Texas and then open it up

453
00:31:55.119 --> 00:31:57.559
to the audience for any questions that
they have as well. But first to

454
00:31:57.599 --> 00:32:02.839
thank you to our sponsors. Your
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455
00:32:02.880 --> 00:32:08.000
in our students, encourage innovation and
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456
00:32:08.359 --> 00:32:13.480
Visit Raise your Hand Texas dot org. Texas twenty thirty six is the

457
00:32:13.519 --> 00:32:19.480
nonpartisan, nonprofit organization building long term, data driven strategies to help secure our

458
00:32:19.480 --> 00:32:24.079
state's prosperity through our bi centennial and
beyond. Visit Texas twenty thirty six dot

459
00:32:24.279 --> 00:32:30.079
org for more and Methodist Healthcare Ministries
is committed to health equity, striving to

460
00:32:30.160 --> 00:32:37.480
create more fair and just opportunities for
all to thrive more at MHM dot org.

461
00:32:37.680 --> 00:32:43.079
All right, South Texas, let's
get into it. You're so exciting.

462
00:32:43.119 --> 00:32:46.759
I am excited, yes, because
I have had individual conversations with Evan

463
00:32:46.880 --> 00:32:51.519
and Alexa about this already, and
they took very different positions on this.

464
00:32:51.599 --> 00:32:53.680
So I'm hoping that they will just
argue for the next ten minutes here.

465
00:32:54.119 --> 00:32:58.599
I think we can arrange that,
right. Yeah, So basically what we

466
00:32:58.640 --> 00:33:04.400
saw here was three congressional seats that
were being heavily contested t X fifteen t

467
00:33:04.599 --> 00:33:08.480
X twenty eight and TX thirty four. Republicans ended up winning one of them,

468
00:33:08.559 --> 00:33:15.119
Monica Dela Cruz defeating Michelle Vallejo.
We had Henry Quaar winning by a

469
00:33:15.119 --> 00:33:20.039
pretty wide margin reelection in TX twenty
eight, and Vicente Gonzalez, who switched

470
00:33:20.079 --> 00:33:24.359
from fifteen to thirty four due to
how fifteen was redistricted, winning by a

471
00:33:24.559 --> 00:33:31.880
smaller margin but not an insignificant margin
in that race too. The Republicans,

472
00:33:31.920 --> 00:33:36.039
I think, have you know,
we've seen a little bit of a celebration

473
00:33:36.160 --> 00:33:38.640
of that t X fifteen races.
You know, we continue to make inroads

474
00:33:38.680 --> 00:33:45.519
in South Texas. Democrats would beg
to differ. So which is it,

475
00:33:45.599 --> 00:33:49.720
Alexa, What should we make from
those races? I think what you should

476
00:33:49.720 --> 00:33:53.200
make of it is that jerrymandering works, and this is a perfect example of

477
00:33:53.240 --> 00:33:57.359
it. I mean, if you
look at CD fifteen, it was a

478
00:33:57.400 --> 00:34:00.599
district that I believe had initially gone
for Biden by two points. It was

479
00:34:00.640 --> 00:34:06.400
redrawn in the opposite direction to go
for Trump by two points. We should

480
00:34:06.400 --> 00:34:09.599
also point out that these districts they're
not they're not. They don't just exist

481
00:34:09.760 --> 00:34:19.639
along the border. They stretch up
all the way to horrible so I think

482
00:34:19.639 --> 00:34:22.440
it was like a pejorative thing when
they were first created. Anyway, not

483
00:34:22.480 --> 00:34:25.159
great, but they run all the
way up. I mean, these are

484
00:34:25.239 --> 00:34:30.880
not sure they're South Texas districts because
the people who are elected to represent them

485
00:34:30.079 --> 00:34:35.480
tend to live on the border.
But these are not just representative of the

486
00:34:35.480 --> 00:34:37.960
border. In fact, there were
white counties put on top of Hispanic counties

487
00:34:37.960 --> 00:34:42.480
to make the district more Republican right
when they reru Yeah. Well, and

488
00:34:42.519 --> 00:34:45.000
the thing with CD fifteen, and
we'll see this play out in the legal

489
00:34:45.079 --> 00:34:50.679
challenge to the way the map was
drawn next summer, is that the challenges

490
00:34:50.719 --> 00:34:55.480
that they flipped precincts in and out
of the district to pull out high propensity

491
00:34:55.559 --> 00:35:01.360
voting Latino voters in that Iago County
portion of it with lower propensity voters.

492
00:35:01.760 --> 00:35:07.280
And that's how they sort of that's
how they made the neighboring district thirty four

493
00:35:07.639 --> 00:35:10.880
better for the Democrat They packed voters
in. That's what we'll see play out

494
00:35:10.880 --> 00:35:14.280
in the litigation. But I think, I mean, if you look at

495
00:35:14.320 --> 00:35:19.320
CD fifteen, if you look at
the breakdown of which candidate won each county

496
00:35:19.519 --> 00:35:22.840
from Iago all the way up,
I mean it's a gradient from blue to

497
00:35:23.000 --> 00:35:30.039
red right, because it's still the
Republicans. While they will sure they are

498
00:35:30.679 --> 00:35:35.880
making some gains in some of these
communities, these are not wholesale gains.

499
00:35:35.920 --> 00:35:38.760
And even if you look at their
one win, which was by design,

500
00:35:39.320 --> 00:35:44.280
they did not win in the areas
that they are purporting to make the most

501
00:35:44.320 --> 00:35:50.199
gains in and the areas that are
the population centers when you talk about the

502
00:35:50.280 --> 00:35:55.159
valley and if you go one for
three, that's not great. Indeed.

503
00:35:55.239 --> 00:35:59.280
Yeah, I mean, I think
the idea I was kind of surprised that

504
00:35:59.360 --> 00:36:02.360
they the Kwayar seat was even something
that they thought was realistic. Maybe that's

505
00:36:02.400 --> 00:36:07.519
just because I'm from Laredo and too
because thirty four was like a huge Biden

506
00:36:07.599 --> 00:36:08.960
advantage. So after they readrown,
Yeah, I mean, I think they

507
00:36:09.000 --> 00:36:13.400
got real competent them into a frenzy. Yeah, And I think, you

508
00:36:13.440 --> 00:36:17.360
know, there's obviously a mismatch between
the expectations of how well they thought they

509
00:36:17.360 --> 00:36:21.960
would do in some of these communities
and the reality of how well they can

510
00:36:22.000 --> 00:36:25.280
perform when they don't have the advantage
of jerrymandering on their side. There's a

511
00:36:25.320 --> 00:36:29.000
little bit of clarity, you know
that seen in Jurassic Park, where the

512
00:36:29.039 --> 00:36:31.880
person is standing so close to the
dinosaur does not see that it's a dinosaur

513
00:36:32.000 --> 00:36:37.639
until you pull back far enough.
I think that the special election in thirty

514
00:36:37.679 --> 00:36:42.679
four that Mayra Flores won was the
dinosaur, and as we were standing close

515
00:36:42.719 --> 00:36:45.360
to it, we couldn't actually see
what was going on until we got a

516
00:36:45.360 --> 00:36:49.000
little bit farther back from it.
Special elections are special. They have the

517
00:36:49.039 --> 00:36:52.880
word special in the name. They're
not normal. They're low turnout. You

518
00:36:52.960 --> 00:37:00.440
can orchestrate a sneak attack when in
a special election in a way that you

519
00:37:00.519 --> 00:37:04.119
cannot in a general election. The
media, and it's a good thing.

520
00:37:04.159 --> 00:37:08.480
We don't know anybody in the media
were susceptible to being spun on the significance

521
00:37:08.519 --> 00:37:14.119
of Flores's victory in the special election. We were all told see South Texas

522
00:37:14.159 --> 00:37:19.280
as turning Republican, as opposed to
they pickpocketed a district during a special election.

523
00:37:20.440 --> 00:37:23.039
I've always suspected that the narrative coming
out of twenty twenty was a little

524
00:37:23.079 --> 00:37:30.440
bit uncertain. We had in twenty
twenty a pandemic election in which one side,

525
00:37:30.519 --> 00:37:36.119
the Democrats, campaigned from zoom from
their houses, didn't leave the other

526
00:37:36.159 --> 00:37:38.800
side of the Republicans pretended that there
wasn't a pandemic and went out and knocked

527
00:37:38.840 --> 00:37:44.239
on doors, and they were more
successful in getting people to vote for them

528
00:37:44.639 --> 00:37:47.679
campaigning in person than the Democrats were
campaigning on zoom. And we were told,

529
00:37:47.719 --> 00:37:52.440
aha, see this means that the
Valley South Texas Hispanics are more open

530
00:37:52.440 --> 00:37:55.760
to Republicans. I think it was
a weird election cycle, and I wanted

531
00:37:55.800 --> 00:38:00.559
to see what an actual election cycle
where both sides were heating would tell us

532
00:38:00.599 --> 00:38:05.800
about whether that was an anomaly or
that was the new normal. I think

533
00:38:06.360 --> 00:38:08.840
what we learned yesterday is that it's
kind of inconclusive as to whether this is

534
00:38:08.840 --> 00:38:13.559
the new normal. Yes, Valverdian
Zapota counties, we were talking about this

535
00:38:13.599 --> 00:38:17.239
earlier, did in twenty twenty flip
from being longtime blue counties to being red

536
00:38:17.280 --> 00:38:22.280
counties. They were in twenty twenty, they were again yesterday. And yes,

537
00:38:22.360 --> 00:38:28.000
there's a district that now has a
Republican candidate successful in the valley representing

538
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:32.119
the valley in Congress. But you
know, the Saint Ankenzales beat Mira Flores

539
00:38:32.119 --> 00:38:37.079
in that race, and you know, Democrats said all along, don't listen

540
00:38:37.119 --> 00:38:39.000
to the noise on this. This
is still a district that we can win.

541
00:38:40.199 --> 00:38:44.840
I didn't see a lot of evidence
in the Valley in South Texas yesterday

542
00:38:45.039 --> 00:38:49.880
that the Republicans have made significant in
roads. They've made some inroads to your

543
00:38:49.920 --> 00:38:53.480
point, Well, but Janie Lopez
is up in her district in eighteen thirty

544
00:38:53.519 --> 00:38:59.280
seven. Sure, but Eddie Morales, we were all told Eddie Morales was

545
00:38:59.320 --> 00:39:00.880
going to lose the past district.
He did, and we were told Abel

546
00:39:00.880 --> 00:39:04.960
Herrero was going to lose his district. He didn't like. I think it's

547
00:39:04.960 --> 00:39:07.039
a mixed bag. Yeah, I
have a different take. I don't think

548
00:39:07.039 --> 00:39:09.280
it's inconclusive. I think actually,
to you know, bring it back full

549
00:39:09.320 --> 00:39:14.559
circle to like our our Texas elections
more competitive. I think, at least

550
00:39:14.599 --> 00:39:16.239
in South Texas, it does seem
like they are more competitive. And actually

551
00:39:16.280 --> 00:39:21.960
that may be a good thing for
the voters of South Texas because Democrats have

552
00:39:22.000 --> 00:39:27.119
been dominant in South Texas for so
long that there is a dissatisfycent and those

553
00:39:27.360 --> 00:39:30.000
those areas continue to be some of
the poorest, more impoverished areas of the

554
00:39:30.039 --> 00:39:34.760
state, meaning, hey, what
have these guys done for me lately?

555
00:39:34.840 --> 00:39:37.880
Right? And so there was this
discontent. When we wrote stories about about

556
00:39:37.880 --> 00:39:40.719
those areas, people were like,
well, we've voted for Democrats for so

557
00:39:40.800 --> 00:39:45.559
long, getting someone different, maybe
a breath of fresh point when he switched

558
00:39:45.559 --> 00:39:52.480
parties. Democrats have taken Hispanics for
granted in the valley and then not done

559
00:39:52.519 --> 00:39:54.480
anything. And I don't think they
are I don't think voters are wrong to

560
00:39:54.519 --> 00:39:58.280
say that. I think that they
may have a point. And so when

561
00:39:58.320 --> 00:40:04.800
you have a competition of ideas where
Republicans and Democrats both have to get after

562
00:40:04.840 --> 00:40:07.760
it, and let's be clear,
Henry Quaar and Visensa Gonzalez did have to

563
00:40:07.760 --> 00:40:15.559
get after it to win their elections. But it's actually good, Like it's

564
00:40:15.639 --> 00:40:17.320
good for democracy, it's good for
the exchange of ideas. It's good for

565
00:40:17.440 --> 00:40:22.760
voters because they get to hear a
diversity of opinions. And so, you

566
00:40:22.760 --> 00:40:25.400
know, we're talking about Democrats versus
Republicans. But for the voters this actually

567
00:40:25.480 --> 00:40:29.440
may be good. They may like
come out and listen to myra floors and

568
00:40:29.480 --> 00:40:31.119
say, you know what, thank
you for coming man. We don't like

569
00:40:31.159 --> 00:40:34.920
your ideas. We're gonna stick with
our guy. But I think this is

570
00:40:34.960 --> 00:40:37.880
actually pretty good. Yeah, I
think if you take a place like the

571
00:40:37.920 --> 00:40:42.199
Rial Grand Valley. It has some
of the highest uninsured rates in Texas,

572
00:40:42.360 --> 00:40:46.480
probably in the country. It has
huge I mean the uninsured rate for children,

573
00:40:46.639 --> 00:40:51.679
the poverty rate. I mean,
they're incredibly and horribly high. If

574
00:40:51.719 --> 00:40:57.639
you're a Democrat and you are trying
to make your case to those voters at

575
00:40:57.639 --> 00:41:00.719
a higher level, right if you're
not a city council person or a mayor,

576
00:41:01.000 --> 00:41:05.000
if you're trying to run for state
office in any way, you say,

577
00:41:05.119 --> 00:41:07.639
hey, guess what would help you. Maybe Medicaid expansion would help you.

578
00:41:07.719 --> 00:41:10.480
Hey, guess where that could happen. Oh, if we had enough

579
00:41:10.519 --> 00:41:14.360
people at the legislature to vote for
it, or if we had a governor

580
00:41:14.400 --> 00:41:16.440
who would get behind it and campaign
for it. I'm not saying that that's

581
00:41:16.480 --> 00:41:20.880
what should happen and that's what those
voters should support, but I think it

582
00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:25.639
creates an opening for voters to have
some sort of responsiveness from the people who

583
00:41:25.639 --> 00:41:30.800
are trying to win their votes instead
of just these assumptions of who they're going

584
00:41:30.840 --> 00:41:32.880
to vote for. I think people
in charge should make the case to people

585
00:41:32.880 --> 00:41:37.000
about why they should be given the
power that their votes give them, and

586
00:41:37.079 --> 00:41:40.280
that they should work to make their
lives better. And I think that this

587
00:41:40.360 --> 00:41:45.639
competitiveness in these areas where people do
need so much help on just like basic

588
00:41:45.719 --> 00:41:49.639
life things does open the door for
that. Yeah, I think that's a

589
00:41:49.639 --> 00:41:52.960
great point, and I think it
is about like, even though some of

590
00:41:52.000 --> 00:41:59.480
these districts were gerrymandered, and even
though the Texas electorate isn't what Democrats necessarily

591
00:42:00.119 --> 00:42:04.360
want it to be, right,
it's still more republican state, even independence

592
00:42:04.480 --> 00:42:07.719
lean more conservative. What Democrats have
to understand is that you've got to,

593
00:42:07.840 --> 00:42:13.360
like, you've got to go out
and win the voters that you have to

594
00:42:13.440 --> 00:42:16.320
win in your district or in the
state, instead of trying to tell the

595
00:42:16.400 --> 00:42:22.679
voters what you wish that they believed
and expecting them to come to you like

596
00:42:22.719 --> 00:42:24.440
it's like, what do you all
want? And that those are the issues

597
00:42:24.480 --> 00:42:28.199
that I'm going to run on where
right now? I think it's a little

598
00:42:28.199 --> 00:42:30.159
bit of the inverse. I would
second, by the way, what James

599
00:42:30.159 --> 00:42:34.679
said earlier about competition being a good
thing for everybody. We had way too

600
00:42:34.760 --> 00:42:40.000
many races to call at seven o'clock
just by virtual of the fact that the

601
00:42:40.119 --> 00:42:47.039
party in power had no opponent in
the other party. Last night because the

602
00:42:47.400 --> 00:42:51.400
districts were drawn away where there was
no competition, and so the party not

603
00:42:51.480 --> 00:42:54.440
in the seat decided it wasn't worth
putting anybody up to run against that person.

604
00:42:54.480 --> 00:42:58.920
So you've got a whole bunch of
districts around the state where you didn't

605
00:42:58.920 --> 00:43:01.960
even have a choice, there was
no competition. And I do think that

606
00:43:02.079 --> 00:43:07.360
what you said is exactly right.
It's bad for the voters in that community

607
00:43:07.400 --> 00:43:10.360
not to at least have a choice
of ideas to listen to. So good

608
00:43:10.360 --> 00:43:14.079
for you for saying that that's good. All right, Well, we have

609
00:43:14.239 --> 00:43:17.199
two microphones up in the room.
Are there any audience members who would like

610
00:43:17.239 --> 00:43:24.480
to ask a question? Good?
Thanks, My question is for Evan,

611
00:43:24.559 --> 00:43:29.239
but anyone's welcome to chime man.
What do you think it would take for

612
00:43:29.519 --> 00:43:34.199
Democrats to win stay wide in Texas? I go back to what I said

613
00:43:34.199 --> 00:43:37.559
earlier about rural communities. I mean, I know that the conventional wisdom for

614
00:43:37.639 --> 00:43:40.119
years has been you got to turn
out more of your folks in your base,

615
00:43:42.280 --> 00:43:44.719
run the numbers up, and ultimately
that gets you over the line.

616
00:43:44.760 --> 00:43:47.320
But you know the example I'll give
actually, and Matthew called it out to

617
00:43:47.360 --> 00:43:51.719
feederman Osrays, what did you hear
about Fetterman's victory last night. You heard

618
00:43:51.760 --> 00:43:55.159
that Fetterman liked bettoor work, traveled
around to every county in Pennsylvania. He

619
00:43:55.280 --> 00:44:00.400
went to rural communities deliberately, and
he got the Demomocratic share of the rural

620
00:44:00.480 --> 00:44:05.400
vote up to thirty five percent,
thirty six percent, thirty seven percent.

621
00:44:06.239 --> 00:44:07.920
We published a story a couple of
weeks ago that show that in the last

622
00:44:07.960 --> 00:44:14.079
four election cycles in Texas, Democrats
have not cracked twenty five percent in rural

623
00:44:14.119 --> 00:44:17.440
communities, and Democrats have not been
competitive statewide. And the assumption is you've

624
00:44:17.440 --> 00:44:21.639
got to get to at least thirty
percent and probably even closer to thirty three

625
00:44:21.679 --> 00:44:24.360
percent in those counties. You don't
have to win them, but you just

626
00:44:24.400 --> 00:44:29.159
have to get more people to vote
Democratic. What's it going to take.

627
00:44:29.360 --> 00:44:31.239
You need somebody who's going to be
able to turn more rural folks out in

628
00:44:31.280 --> 00:44:36.360
addition to getting not instead of but
in addition to getting the base out.

629
00:44:36.719 --> 00:44:40.199
Geography as well as demography is the
only way that Democrats, in my opinion,

630
00:44:40.239 --> 00:44:44.119
are going to get back to being
competitive state wide. You may have

631
00:44:44.159 --> 00:44:45.760
a different point of view bout this. I wonder no I think that's correct.

632
00:44:45.800 --> 00:44:50.599
I think though that sometimes what gets
lost in that is people will talk

633
00:44:50.599 --> 00:44:52.320
about rural Texas and assume that we're
just talking about white people, which is

634
00:44:53.039 --> 00:44:58.599
which is not the case. And
so I think that if Democrats are trying

635
00:44:58.639 --> 00:45:01.800
to think about rural Texas and the
sort of outwhach that can happen there,

636
00:45:02.599 --> 00:45:07.679
there's probably a bit more common ground
on different issues than people will assume because

637
00:45:07.719 --> 00:45:12.119
of these assumptions that are made about
rural Texas. And you know, the

638
00:45:12.199 --> 00:45:16.000
other part of this is that the
state is becoming more urban in nature.

639
00:45:16.480 --> 00:45:23.000
But it's also important to note that
these big blue urban counties, that doesn't

640
00:45:23.039 --> 00:45:27.719
mean that everyone there is over eighteen
and can vote, right. These counties

641
00:45:27.760 --> 00:45:31.119
are growing because of immigration international immigration, they're growing because of domestic migration,

642
00:45:31.400 --> 00:45:36.119
and they're growing because of natural increase
because people are having children. And so

643
00:45:36.199 --> 00:45:38.760
that doesn't necessarily just because we are
trending to be a more urban state doesn't

644
00:45:38.760 --> 00:45:43.480
mean we are trending to be a
more urban state of adults who can vote,

645
00:45:43.760 --> 00:45:45.599
And so we have to sort of
think about it that way as well.

646
00:45:46.039 --> 00:45:50.800
I'll say one more thing too,
is that you've got to like lose

647
00:45:50.840 --> 00:45:54.599
your innocence if you're a Democrat and
sort of just just play the game,

648
00:45:54.840 --> 00:46:00.760
you know, Texa politics full contact
sport. And sometimes you gotta do things

649
00:46:00.760 --> 00:46:05.239
that you don't necessarily like. You
got to say things that you don't necessarily

650
00:46:05.280 --> 00:46:07.119
like to get into office to do
the things you want to do. Governor

651
00:46:07.159 --> 00:46:10.239
Rabbit, I think is a perfect
example. You know, he says the

652
00:46:10.239 --> 00:46:19.239
things to keep moderate business minded Republicans
on his side and does enough to get

653
00:46:19.280 --> 00:46:23.679
the far right wing to go along
with him because he can keep them appeased.

654
00:46:24.079 --> 00:46:29.000
And if they don't like it how
far he's or if they don't like

655
00:46:29.039 --> 00:46:30.440
that he's not going far enough,
all he's got to do is win the

656
00:46:30.480 --> 00:46:32.840
primary. And then what else are
they gonna do. They're gonna vote for

657
00:46:32.840 --> 00:46:36.719
bett O'Rourke, They're gonna vote for
Lupe Valdez. Like you just got to

658
00:46:36.760 --> 00:46:42.480
sort of be smart about this stuff. And again, like we said in

659
00:46:42.519 --> 00:46:45.840
the story, like with bet o'
rourke, a perfect example is don't put

660
00:46:45.880 --> 00:46:51.239
yourself in policy holes that you can't
get out of, like guns, like

661
00:46:51.360 --> 00:46:55.119
abortion. They've got to realize that, you know, particularly in rural Texas

662
00:46:55.239 --> 00:46:59.079
and a lot of these South Texas
districts that we're talking about. Those are

663
00:46:59.159 --> 00:47:04.639
rural districts right where people have complicated
feelings about abortion, where people like their

664
00:47:04.679 --> 00:47:08.320
guns. You've got to be smart
about how you talk about those issues,

665
00:47:08.360 --> 00:47:12.239
because in twenty eighteen, PTO did
show up to all two hundred and fifty

666
00:47:12.239 --> 00:47:15.480
four counties. He didn't have specific
policies about those things, so there was

667
00:47:15.519 --> 00:47:19.760
no negatives once he said the things
about guns, churches, and abortion.

668
00:47:19.920 --> 00:47:22.880
But still even in twenty eighteen,
still didn't get the percentage in those counties

669
00:47:22.960 --> 00:47:28.239
up to a degree that he could
be competitive. Yeah, I'm curious to

670
00:47:28.280 --> 00:47:31.039
hear more about rural voters and hearing
that they saved Republicans Bacon. You know,

671
00:47:31.079 --> 00:47:35.119
there's this article that y'all put out, I think it was two days

672
00:47:35.159 --> 00:47:38.199
ago about how rural Texan is really
real. Texas is really struggling with hospitals

673
00:47:38.199 --> 00:47:43.000
closing. The teacher shortage is terrible
there. They have no broadband or poor

674
00:47:43.039 --> 00:47:46.519
broadband. What I feel like there's
a disconnect. So what do y'all think

675
00:47:46.559 --> 00:47:51.239
is happening there? And why do
they care about something else that we're missing?

676
00:47:51.559 --> 00:47:55.199
What's going on with those voters.
I'm probably the worst person to answered

677
00:47:55.199 --> 00:47:59.559
this question because because I don't spend
a whole lot of time in rural Texas,

678
00:47:59.599 --> 00:48:02.639
but we're trying our hardiest and we've
got people in rural areas of the

679
00:48:02.639 --> 00:48:07.840
state now. But just to you
know, we talked about it's the economy

680
00:48:07.880 --> 00:48:10.360
stupid James Carver nineteen ninety two.
Right. The other two parts of that

681
00:48:10.440 --> 00:48:15.920
were, it's the economy stupid one. Uh, don't forget about health care?

682
00:48:15.480 --> 00:48:20.719
Uh, and then change versus more
of the same. Right, three

683
00:48:21.159 --> 00:48:25.519
topics that they told the campaign workers
to hit on, right, and those

684
00:48:25.639 --> 00:48:29.719
all sort of affect you, like
in your daily lives. Right, it's

685
00:48:29.760 --> 00:48:31.960
the economy, healthcare, like,
you want to talk about healthcare, You

686
00:48:31.960 --> 00:48:36.599
want to talk about public schools with
rural Texas because it's the number one employer

687
00:48:36.639 --> 00:48:39.159
out there. You want to talk
about the loss of rural hospitals like it's

688
00:48:39.199 --> 00:48:44.119
a big issue out there, and
you've got to just like focus on the

689
00:48:44.159 --> 00:48:47.079
issues and don't get distracted by all
this other stuff. It just seemed like

690
00:48:47.119 --> 00:48:50.960
Democrats. Again I hate to pick
on better or rourk, but like it

691
00:48:51.079 --> 00:48:53.719
just seemed like they were just throwing
everything at the wall during the campaign cycle

692
00:48:54.320 --> 00:48:57.760
to see what would stick. Like, first there was the grid, which

693
00:48:57.840 --> 00:49:00.679
was a very serious issue, but
then you know, then all of a

694
00:49:00.679 --> 00:49:04.280
sudden, the grid didn't fail,
and then we moved on Operation Long Star

695
00:49:04.400 --> 00:49:07.039
was real bad in January, and
then better work started talking about Operational Loan

696
00:49:07.119 --> 00:49:10.360
Star. Then some of those issues
got resolved and we stopped talking about Operation

697
00:49:10.480 --> 00:49:14.159
Loan Star. Right, you can't
just be throwing everything at the wall.

698
00:49:14.239 --> 00:49:16.239
You have to have a campaign strategy. You have to be talking about issues

699
00:49:16.239 --> 00:49:20.679
that matter to voters, and they've
got to This is a thing like I

700
00:49:20.679 --> 00:49:22.480
don't think there's enough. And you
know, if you talk to rural Democrats,

701
00:49:22.559 --> 00:49:24.920
which there's not a lot of them, guess why, Jerry Manderin,

702
00:49:27.320 --> 00:49:30.320
If you talk to rural Democrats,
they're like, there is no infrastructure out

703
00:49:30.320 --> 00:49:32.840
here. They don't come out here. So how are they going to know

704
00:49:34.000 --> 00:49:37.159
our issues and what issues to talk
about if they're not out here? And

705
00:49:37.440 --> 00:49:39.400
that is part of like maybe some
of the organizing and infrastructure that needs to

706
00:49:39.400 --> 00:49:45.239
happen, because Republicans certainly have the
infrastructure out there. Yeah. Well,

707
00:49:45.280 --> 00:49:52.199
I also I also think that there's
a disconnect between the priorities that democrats,

708
00:49:52.280 --> 00:49:58.239
particularly on the national level, center
versus the reality on the ground in rural

709
00:49:58.280 --> 00:50:04.119
communities. So the idea of police
brutality, for example, it's obviously a

710
00:50:04.159 --> 00:50:07.360
real issue. It affects so many
people's lives. If you live in Harris

711
00:50:07.400 --> 00:50:13.639
County and you're a black person or
a brown person, you probably have even

712
00:50:13.639 --> 00:50:17.519
a personal experience that makes you identify
with that issue. If you're a person

713
00:50:17.599 --> 00:50:22.760
living out in Lubbock, that might
not be something that resonates with you.

714
00:50:22.920 --> 00:50:27.519
Right if you're talking about discrimination,
if you're talking about fights over voting rights,

715
00:50:27.519 --> 00:50:30.760
and you've never had a problem to
vote because the one polling place in

716
00:50:30.800 --> 00:50:35.079
your county is run by your grandma's
friends who you see at the community center

717
00:50:35.159 --> 00:50:38.039
and at the local church. Like, the experiences of people living on the

718
00:50:38.039 --> 00:50:40.960
ground in so many of these communities
are just so. I mean, the

719
00:50:42.039 --> 00:50:45.679
contrast between that and the way Democrats
and exactly the loudest Democrats, which are

720
00:50:45.679 --> 00:50:49.440
those on the national level, talk
about them, I mean, I'm not

721
00:50:49.480 --> 00:50:53.360
sure the gap could be wider,
and so I don't know that a Democrat

722
00:50:53.639 --> 00:50:58.880
trying to run on a more local
level would be successful until they can sort

723
00:50:58.920 --> 00:51:02.280
of break through or close that gap
in some way or another. I would

724
00:51:02.320 --> 00:51:06.639
think the first step is showing up, but I would think the second step

725
00:51:06.679 --> 00:51:09.440
is also trying to break something of
substance to those folks and try to you

726
00:51:09.440 --> 00:51:15.199
know, the same example that we
that I offered about Democrats making their case

727
00:51:15.239 --> 00:51:17.800
to people on the border. You
know, what are the issues that matter

728
00:51:17.840 --> 00:51:22.360
that could improve the lives of people
in rural Texas and take those to them

729
00:51:22.360 --> 00:51:24.760
and show them how you can actually
feel like for them in South Texas,

730
00:51:24.800 --> 00:51:29.800
like Republicans really chose to focus on
the border and immigration and crime. Right,

731
00:51:29.960 --> 00:51:32.719
if you're like a let's say,
like I'm just picking Odessa because they

732
00:51:32.760 --> 00:51:37.119
had the water problems earlier. You're
a Democrat and you say, hey,

733
00:51:37.559 --> 00:51:39.960
your water infrastructure is broken, you
pick me, and we're gonna fix it

734
00:51:39.960 --> 00:51:44.039
and we're not gonna have these problems
with water infrastructure and you're gonna have water

735
00:51:44.079 --> 00:51:46.880
to drink and water to use.
Like, I think that is like something

736
00:51:46.920 --> 00:51:52.000
that is much more affecting the voters
of that area than some of the things

737
00:51:52.039 --> 00:51:54.920
that Alexa was going to right,
you know, in fairness to bet to

738
00:51:55.000 --> 00:51:58.639
a work or anybody else who might
travel to these counties, I do think

739
00:51:58.679 --> 00:52:00.639
the problem is not that they're not
talking about issues that affect people on the

740
00:52:00.639 --> 00:52:05.280
ground. Yeah, the nationalizing of
politics is not a help in those communities,

741
00:52:05.280 --> 00:52:08.039
no question want that. We know
that there are more than seven hundred

742
00:52:08.039 --> 00:52:13.320
thousand kids enrolled in rural public schools, which is more rural students than in

743
00:52:13.400 --> 00:52:16.480
seventeen states combined, but sixty percent
of rural public school districts don't have advanced

744
00:52:16.480 --> 00:52:21.119
placement classes. We know that seventy
four counties all of the rural, have

745
00:52:21.199 --> 00:52:23.400
no hospitals, thirty two counties all
of the rural, have no primary care

746
00:52:23.440 --> 00:52:28.519
doctor. We know that one out
of three rural residents doesn't have access to

747
00:52:28.559 --> 00:52:31.519
high speed broadband, which was a
problem before the pandemic and became even more

748
00:52:31.559 --> 00:52:37.400
of a problem with zoom school and
telemedicine and lost economic development. And the

749
00:52:37.599 --> 00:52:42.159
estimate was that because we didn't have
sufficient access to broadbanded rural communities, there

750
00:52:42.199 --> 00:52:45.159
was a five billion dollar lost economic
benefit to the state of Texas. Like,

751
00:52:45.239 --> 00:52:49.880
we know what the data tells us, but we also know that people

752
00:52:49.920 --> 00:52:52.320
don't always vote in their self interest. This became clear to me first.

753
00:52:52.360 --> 00:52:55.480
The time I was first aware of
this was in the two thousand and four

754
00:52:55.559 --> 00:53:00.320
presidential election. Which we forget.
George W. Bush running for real election

755
00:53:00.559 --> 00:53:05.159
almost lost. It was like sixty
thousand pot smokers in Ohio. If they

756
00:53:05.199 --> 00:53:08.280
had changed their votes, John Kerry
would have been president. It came down

757
00:53:08.280 --> 00:53:14.440
to Ohio, and in Ohio,
twenty five percent of the people who lost

758
00:53:14.480 --> 00:53:20.599
their healthcare during Bush's first term voted
to re elect George Bush. It doesn't

759
00:53:20.639 --> 00:53:23.880
always come down to the issues that
affect you. Sometimes you vote against your

760
00:53:23.880 --> 00:53:30.960
own self interest because you have a
larger concern politically that Trump's all the issues.

761
00:53:30.000 --> 00:53:35.000
So sometimes even talking about the issues
doesn't matter. But I saw bet

762
00:53:35.000 --> 00:53:39.800
To O'Rourke go to rural communities all
throughout this election turn out enormous numbers of

763
00:53:39.840 --> 00:53:46.079
people, relatively speaking, talking about
the grid, energy, healthcare, education.

764
00:53:47.000 --> 00:53:51.639
At the end of the day,
the caricature of O'Rourke that the Abbot

765
00:53:51.639 --> 00:53:58.599
people put forward was enough to trump
small t Trump anything that he did.

766
00:53:59.000 --> 00:54:02.159
In those communities people ended up voting
against. You could argue their own self

767
00:54:02.159 --> 00:54:06.360
interest in those counties where there's no
hospital, in those counties where there's no

768
00:54:06.440 --> 00:54:10.360
AP classes, in those counties where
there's no broadband, it didn't matter because

769
00:54:10.400 --> 00:54:14.639
the caricature of O'Rourke was enough.
I think that's true, but I think

770
00:54:14.679 --> 00:54:16.079
he also made it easier for them
to do that. Oh of course,

771
00:54:16.119 --> 00:54:20.199
Well back to your earlier point that
by this time everybody knows Betto he had

772
00:54:20.239 --> 00:54:23.760
a record that people were going to
run against Abbot's. Abbot had plenty of

773
00:54:23.760 --> 00:54:29.159
material that crews did not have four
years earlier. Fair or unfair, I

774
00:54:29.239 --> 00:54:31.519
agree, I agree with that.
But you know you're correct to highlight the

775
00:54:31.599 --> 00:54:35.960
rural communities as a big challenge.
And now the question is going to be

776
00:54:35.960 --> 00:54:38.920
in the next four years, will
anything get done in those communities by the

777
00:54:38.920 --> 00:54:42.679
people who got elected yesterday? We
don't know. I mean I do.

778
00:54:42.920 --> 00:54:46.119
It is strange because I don't get
this sense, and maybe you all disagree,

779
00:54:46.320 --> 00:54:52.000
but I don't get the sentence that
Democrats have presented a forceful argument of

780
00:54:52.559 --> 00:54:57.679
if you don't like the way things
have gone in the last twenty five years,

781
00:54:57.719 --> 00:55:00.320
if your life has not improved in
the loft twenty fifty, if your

782
00:55:00.320 --> 00:55:04.559
community has not improved, maybe you
should consider changing who's in charge. Like

783
00:55:04.800 --> 00:55:08.840
don't I don't think that that was
a forceful, united message that we saw

784
00:55:08.880 --> 00:55:13.519
from the Democrats. Necessarily that was
Better's message. You said, you know,

785
00:55:13.519 --> 00:55:15.599
if you don't like the last eight
years, and Abbot Abbot Abbot is

786
00:55:15.639 --> 00:55:19.320
the guy. I think that was
better. But I think are on a

787
00:55:19.360 --> 00:55:22.159
more widespread level, like don't you
can't necessarily hang on one candidate. I

788
00:55:22.159 --> 00:55:27.800
think if if you were as a
sort of party infrastructure, you think that

789
00:55:27.800 --> 00:55:32.679
that would be what you would build
your entire effort around. But I suppose

790
00:55:32.679 --> 00:55:36.320
you need a party infrastructure to do
that. Well, it is their party,

791
00:55:36.360 --> 00:55:38.119
I mean, this is to James's
point, is their party infrastructure?

792
00:55:38.800 --> 00:55:42.400
Right? If you're the Democrats,
now, think about what it's like on

793
00:55:42.440 --> 00:55:45.800
the day after the election last night. You're the Democrats. Now you're looking

794
00:55:45.840 --> 00:55:49.119
ahead to twenty four into twenty six. There's another set of state white elections

795
00:55:49.119 --> 00:55:52.639
in four years. You need to
begin work now to think about where you're

796
00:55:52.639 --> 00:55:55.519
going to find candidates. How are
you going to put the infrastructure of the

797
00:55:55.519 --> 00:56:00.719
party to work to avoid happening in
twenty six? What happens now? I

798
00:56:00.719 --> 00:56:02.880
mean they may be hoping for a
Republican to win the presidency in twenty four,

799
00:56:02.960 --> 00:56:07.320
So the first midterm is bad for
Republicans. What happened in twenty eighteen.

800
00:56:07.360 --> 00:56:10.039
But they're going to need to identify
candidates they're going to need to figure

801
00:56:10.039 --> 00:56:15.599
out. I mean, I don't
envy the task of the Democrats in the

802
00:56:15.639 --> 00:56:19.000
state right now. Yeah, and
I think, you know a little bit

803
00:56:19.000 --> 00:56:22.920
off of Alexis point, like maybe
that message hasn't spread through and through the

804
00:56:22.960 --> 00:56:28.440
state because like the organizing isn't there, Like in those you've got to be

805
00:56:28.480 --> 00:56:30.239
in those rural areas. You've got
to be on those like hard to reach

806
00:56:30.280 --> 00:56:34.679
areas before the election year, right, Like you've got to build that out.

807
00:56:34.679 --> 00:56:39.239
You can't. What people hate is
you come into them when you need

808
00:56:39.280 --> 00:56:42.800
something, right, you got no
relationship with them, and then all of

809
00:56:42.840 --> 00:56:45.079
a sudden's an election. It's like, hey, where the Democrats come vote

810
00:56:45.079 --> 00:56:46.280
for us? Right, you got
to do a little bit of the work

811
00:56:46.639 --> 00:56:52.960
before that. I'm not sure that
the Democrats have that infrastructure, and we've

812
00:56:52.960 --> 00:56:55.760
talked about the Democrats, but also, I mean we have to give kudos

813
00:56:55.760 --> 00:57:00.719
to the Republicans who have that infrastructure, have stayed leadership that is very strong,

814
00:57:00.840 --> 00:57:07.280
having undisputed or maybe still disputed state
leader in Greg Abbott, who gets

815
00:57:07.320 --> 00:57:10.559
behind the down ballot candidates, who
helps them out, who sends money their

816
00:57:10.639 --> 00:57:15.800
way, sends kind donations their way. You just don't see that on the

817
00:57:15.840 --> 00:57:20.360
Democratic side, and Bettel is to
fault for that. Also on his end,

818
00:57:20.480 --> 00:57:24.639
there was not that same type of
coordination with the down ballot races.

819
00:57:25.119 --> 00:57:29.599
He shirked that to do his own
thing, which is his prerogative. But

820
00:57:30.559 --> 00:57:34.639
that is the difference. On the
Republican side, there is that infrastructure.

821
00:57:34.840 --> 00:57:37.079
That's because they've been winning for almost
three decades, but also because they are

822
00:57:37.320 --> 00:57:42.079
very organized. They're all rowing in
basically the same direction. Some of them

823
00:57:42.119 --> 00:57:45.400
steer a little further to the right, but they're basically rowing in the same

824
00:57:45.480 --> 00:57:50.239
direction, whereas the Democrats, I
don't know which way they're rowing, and

825
00:57:50.280 --> 00:57:54.079
sometimes they're rowing against each other.
Just one last thing to add here,

826
00:57:54.119 --> 00:58:00.719
which is that so much of politics
is about identity right now. And I

827
00:58:00.760 --> 00:58:06.280
don't just mean that by racial identity
or gender or anything like that, but

828
00:58:06.440 --> 00:58:10.280
the kind of groups that we sort
ourselves in. And I think there is

829
00:58:10.320 --> 00:58:15.599
a very strong perception among a lot
of people in South Texas and rural areas

830
00:58:15.599 --> 00:58:22.519
and some suburban areas of the Democrats
being the sort of extremely online, extremely

831
00:58:22.840 --> 00:58:28.880
kind of elite approaching looking down on
certain communities like that, and there are

832
00:58:28.880 --> 00:58:32.800
a lot of people who really don't
like that caricature of Democrats, and I

833
00:58:32.800 --> 00:58:39.079
think that's a big problem in Texas
and beyond as they try to push these

834
00:58:39.079 --> 00:58:43.840
policies, some of which actually benefit
folks. But I think that's about all

835
00:58:43.880 --> 00:58:45.599
the time we have for today.
We are right up at the end of

836
00:58:45.599 --> 00:58:50.559
the hour. So thank you to
James, Alexa and Evan, Thank you

837
00:58:50.599 --> 00:58:55.360
to our sponsors Raise your Hand Texas
Texas twenty thirty six and Methodist Healthcare Ministries

838
00:58:55.400 --> 00:59:01.960
of South Texas. And thank you
to everyone for joining us. Thank you

839
00:59:04.039 --> 00:59:04.559
tell me Y