1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:14,080 Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune Trip Cast for November ninth, ninth, 2 00:00:14,679 --> 00:00:19,679 twenty twenty two, the Day After Election podcast, live and in studio. 3 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,760 Welcome to everyone who has joined us in the room and also to those 4 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:26,559 watching us on the Lime live stream. My name is Matthew Watkins, Managing 5 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,920 editor of News and Politics for the Tribune, and this week I am joined 6 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:36,200 by politics reporter James Bartergan. Hello, Hey, James. Demographics reporter Alexa 7 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:41,280 Ua, good afternoon, and assistant to the regional manager Evan Smith. Yes, 8 00:00:41,359 --> 00:00:44,320 I'm here to beg your groceries at the end. That's right. Do 9 00:00:44,359 --> 00:00:47,000 you still work here? I don't still work here. No, Actually I'm 10 00:00:47,039 --> 00:00:51,399 a ghost. All right. So obviously we're talking about the election last night. 11 00:00:51,439 --> 00:00:57,880 It was simultaneously a fascinating and kind of oddly routine election for Texas. 12 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:03,920 Here we had Republicans kind of sweeping easily in the statewide offices, growing their 13 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,959 margins, you know, somewhat slightly in the legislature and reaping the rewards of 14 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,599 redistricting from twenty twenty one, but they failed to reach I guess what you 15 00:01:11,599 --> 00:01:14,840 would maybe call their reach goals, which would be, you know, winning 16 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,079 three congressional seats in South Texas and knocking off Lena Hidalgo, the Harris County 17 00:01:19,159 --> 00:01:25,200 Judge. All that to say, you know, I still think a pretty 18 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,760 successful night for the Republicans. We're going to talk about all those different races 19 00:01:27,799 --> 00:01:30,239 and all those different things, but I think we should start at the top 20 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:34,400 of the ticket, where you know, for the last two years you could 21 00:01:34,439 --> 00:01:38,719 have said about Governor Greg Abbott that at times he felt like a little bit 22 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:42,359 like a man without a base, a political base at least where you know, 23 00:01:42,439 --> 00:01:45,120 on the right, on the most conservative wing of the party, the 24 00:01:45,159 --> 00:01:48,400 most trumpy wing of the party, there were a lot of people who were 25 00:01:48,439 --> 00:01:52,599 unhappy with him, particularly with his early actions on the pandemic. And then 26 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:57,680 on the left you had Democrats very upset over many things, most recently what 27 00:01:57,719 --> 00:02:00,719 they were portraying as political stunts on the order. Then we come to election 28 00:02:00,879 --> 00:02:04,920 night and he wins by eleven points, and I think you could argue, 29 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,199 and maybe we will argue about this later, that he might have had the 30 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:13,719 second most successful night of a Democrat, I mean, of a Republican nationwide. 31 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,439 That's that eleven point margin, you know, way bigger than the margin 32 00:02:17,719 --> 00:02:23,159 that Ted Cruz beat Betteau O'Rourke four years earlier. So, Evan, I'm 33 00:02:23,159 --> 00:02:29,400 gonna go to you first. Were you surprised by how thoroughly and easily Abbott 34 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:34,159 defeated a Rourke? I was, although the outcome is not that surprising. 35 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,039 We thought that Abbot and also Dan Patrick and Ken Paxson would win, and 36 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:43,080 they won. We thought the margin would be a little narrower, and we 37 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,680 were wrong. I actually think there's the election says more about a roork than 38 00:02:46,719 --> 00:02:51,439 it does about Abbot. I'm sorry to not accept the premise of your question. 39 00:02:52,759 --> 00:02:57,680 Betoo Rourke raised about seventy million dollars maybe a little bit less, which 40 00:02:58,719 --> 00:03:02,840 is about seventy million more that Lupe Valdez raised four years earlier, and the 41 00:03:02,879 --> 00:03:07,919 margin in those two races was basically the same. Donors could have spent about 42 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:12,280 seventy million dollars less to get the same margin they got four years earlier. 43 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,520 I mean, the premise that our work was going to win this race was 44 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:20,800 one that was hard for me to accept. All along, Governor had a 45 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,159 good night, Democrats had a bad night, but it wasn't entirely surprising, 46 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,400 you know, Yeah, James I think if you look at the national press, 47 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,879 the narrative coming out of last night is that it was a pretty surprisingly 48 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:36,759 good night for Democrats. That is not I don't think. I don't think 49 00:03:36,759 --> 00:03:39,759 you can make that argument in Texas. What do you think the difference is? 50 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:44,800 Why did they not fare as well here as they did in other parts 51 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:50,280 of the country. What's a couple of things. I mean, there's systemic 52 00:03:50,319 --> 00:03:54,360 barriers for Democrats to win in Texas. I mean, they've been out of 53 00:03:54,479 --> 00:04:00,840 statewide power for nearly three decades. District thing and jerry mandering also, you 54 00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:05,120 know, plays a major role. A lot of those races that were competitive 55 00:04:05,319 --> 00:04:12,879 or that the Republicans were targeting had been drawn to benefit Republicans and make those 56 00:04:12,919 --> 00:04:15,879 more competitive for them. So in certain sense, they don't have the same 57 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:20,240 advantages that national Democrats have, and they have a lot of the same disadvantages, 58 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:25,360 so it's tough for them. But I mean, also, the party 59 00:04:25,959 --> 00:04:33,160 infrastructure is not super strong, and I think it's probably questionable how much stronger 60 00:04:33,199 --> 00:04:39,759 it can get, particularly after a rough night like last night, where people 61 00:04:39,879 --> 00:04:44,480 have spent money in big races like better Works, multiple races at this point, 62 00:04:44,519 --> 00:04:47,879 really and you know, something that we were talking about just this morning 63 00:04:47,959 --> 00:04:53,040 is just like, where's the funding going to come from for future democratic races, 64 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,680 whether that state house races or state wide races. I think that's going 65 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,519 to be a problem, and it's a challenge they've been facing for a while, 66 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,160 but now it just gets even worse. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, 67 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:08,120 we've talked about on previous podcasts about why is anyone sending Rochelle Garza any 68 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:13,199 money? Why is you know, this supposedly very vulnerable attorney general candidate. 69 00:05:15,319 --> 00:05:18,600 Why is she not getting the support of the party where it seems like they 70 00:05:18,959 --> 00:05:24,480 I'm sorry, the vulnerable candidate of course being Ken Paxton, not Garza. 71 00:05:26,319 --> 00:05:30,160 Why why is there not that party support? And you know, I think 72 00:05:30,439 --> 00:05:32,800 someone could answer that and say, look at these numbers. She lost by 73 00:05:32,879 --> 00:05:38,040 nine point nine percent. She lost by just a little bit smaller of a 74 00:05:38,079 --> 00:05:42,959 margin than becho Ork lost, And maybe I was wrong all along. Maybe 75 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,519 that would have been a waste of money. Maybe that money was better spent 76 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,920 going to other states where it's a little bit of both. I mean, 77 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:53,319 it's the party infrastructure and organization that I was talking about, because I mean, 78 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:57,040 she she wasn't a super strong candidate to begin with, it was her 79 00:05:57,079 --> 00:06:02,040 first time running for any elected office, and trying to jump into running for 80 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,399 state white office when you're her first time around, it's very very difficult. 81 00:06:05,399 --> 00:06:08,480 I mean, it's a big state. You got to have a lot of 82 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,639 money to do it. And when you jump into that with no name, 83 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,399 I D no political experience in the past. I mean, it's an uphill 84 00:06:15,439 --> 00:06:18,920 battle. But then to your other question, I mean, like would and 85 00:06:19,319 --> 00:06:23,759 you could sort of see it when she was here for Tripfest, she kind 86 00:06:23,759 --> 00:06:28,600 of put her other panelists on blast at her at her panel and said, 87 00:06:28,639 --> 00:06:30,720 like I am the best shot that we've got, and like, why aren't 88 00:06:30,759 --> 00:06:34,439 people funding me? Like I'm a Latina, I'm a woman, Like I've 89 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:40,079 got a vulnerable opponent. Why aren't people funding me? Which I think sort 90 00:06:40,079 --> 00:06:44,040 of hurt some people's feelings. I mean it's not great to, you know, 91 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,759 sort of tick off other panelists on there, But I think it. 92 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:51,480 I mean, she had a valid point and maybe some of the seventy million 93 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:57,639 dollars that were going to bed or Rourke could have gone to rachelle Garza and 94 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,879 maybe it makes a difference, but maybe it doesn't. I'm not sure that 95 00:07:00,879 --> 00:07:02,800 she was the best candidate. We should also know turnout though, I mean, 96 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,120 if you look at we know that turnout during mid terms tends to be 97 00:07:06,199 --> 00:07:11,920 lower than these sort of high watermark presidentials, which isn't great for Texas because 98 00:07:11,959 --> 00:07:15,399 we sort of barely have half a registered voters vote in the presidential But if 99 00:07:15,439 --> 00:07:17,800 you look at I was looking at the numbers just before coming up here, 100 00:07:17,839 --> 00:07:25,639 but twenty fourteen, the turnout was in the thirty percent mark. Twenty eighteen 101 00:07:25,759 --> 00:07:29,920 it got up to about fifty three percent right now, and the governor's race 102 00:07:29,959 --> 00:07:32,480 turnout is around forty something. I think it might be forty six last I 103 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,600 looked, So, I mean, sure, we had close to the same 104 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:40,279 raw number of votes from twenty eighteen, but with more registered voters, turnout 105 00:07:40,319 --> 00:07:42,959 is actually lower than it was in twenty eighteen. And I think a lot 106 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,199 of us went into this election thinking it would maybe compared to eighteen in terms 107 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,519 of turnout. It didn't get there at all. You could argue, you 108 00:07:49,519 --> 00:07:54,720 know, would folks have turned out had there been more investment in an exciting 109 00:07:54,759 --> 00:07:59,040 candidate that they could have gotten behind? Sure, but I think it's hard 110 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:03,879 to not to those numbers. Did not think that Democrats really can't do well 111 00:08:03,959 --> 00:08:07,480 unless we hit something close to fifty percent turn out, and that's just not 112 00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:13,079 normal for a midterm election. Let me just jump in and say a word 113 00:08:13,079 --> 00:08:16,199 on behalf of Governor Abbot, and then say something about the Democrats, who 114 00:08:16,199 --> 00:08:20,839 I actually think maybe more than your question had a good night overall, even 115 00:08:20,879 --> 00:08:24,920 if they didn't have a good night on the statewide level. So I don't 116 00:08:24,959 --> 00:08:28,839 like newspaper endorsements. I think they're stupid. I think newspapers should stop endorsing 117 00:08:28,879 --> 00:08:33,279 candidates. The newspapers won't listen to me. I read the endorsements, even 118 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,840 though I think they should stop doing them. And I read the endorsements and 119 00:08:35,879 --> 00:08:41,000 the governor's race. Houston, San Antonio, Austin endorsed Betu A. Rourke, 120 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,840 Dallas and Fort Worth endorsed Governor Abbot. And there was a line in 121 00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:50,639 each of those endorsements in Dallas and Fort Worth that was almost the same and 122 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:54,879 it said, essentially these words, Texas is a prosperous state. It's the 123 00:08:54,919 --> 00:09:00,639 economy. Stupid. Governor Abbot did what he did despite the many issues that 124 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:05,159 Democrats thought that they could prevail on abortion, guns, what have you. 125 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,720 Because the economy of the state is healthy. It's resilient. When we have 126 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,399 bad times, the economy holds on. In good times, our economy takes 127 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:18,240 off. The unemployment rate in Texas is low. Sometimes the simplest answer is 128 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:22,000 the obvious answer. Why did Greg Abbott beat bet to a Rourke Because the 129 00:09:22,039 --> 00:09:28,360 economy trumps everything else. You may not like that. Other people may not 130 00:09:28,519 --> 00:09:31,399 like that, But to me, that's the explanation. I'd also say that 131 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:35,679 what we've talked about Alexa and I talk about this a lot, is that 132 00:09:35,799 --> 00:09:39,799 geography is as much destiny in Texas right now as demography is. Rural Texas 133 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,840 turns out to vote in extraordinary numbers and saves the bacon of Republican state wide 134 00:09:43,919 --> 00:09:48,639 candidates. It did in twenty eighteen, it did in twenty twenty. It 135 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:52,720 did again in twenty twenty two. Whatever margins bet to urk ran up into 136 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:58,639 urban counties or in South Texas wherever the suburbs were effectively a draw. Republican 137 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:00,919 and Democrats fight to a draw. I think it was a little bit less 138 00:10:00,919 --> 00:10:03,320 the case this time than in the last election cycle twenty twenty. Rural Texas 139 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,440 turns out an extraordinary numbers delivers votes for Republicans, and at the end of 140 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,919 the day, if Democrats can't figure out how to talk to rural Texans, 141 00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:15,159 they cannot be competitive statewide. It is a very short conversation, but on 142 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,360 the Democratic side, I will say this state wides turned out badly. But 143 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,039 if you had told me Greg Abbott was going to win by double digits and 144 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:26,679 yet Myra Flores would lose her congressional race in the Valley and the Democrats would 145 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,799 essentially hold on in South Texas, including winning the Eddie Lucio seat Morgan La 146 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:35,320 Montia narrowly beating Adam Hinehjoso, I wouldn't have believed it. If you had 147 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,159 told me that bettu Rourke would win Harris County by only about nine points, 148 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:45,919 but Lena Hidalgo and the other county wide Democrats would also hold on, I 149 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:50,159 wouldn't have believed it. It was a weird night. The top of the 150 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,799 ticket did not necessarily predict everything else. And by the way, as you 151 00:10:54,840 --> 00:11:00,879 say correctly, this legislature looks almost exactly like the d in terms of the 152 00:11:00,879 --> 00:11:07,039 partisan breakdown. They did redistricting and they played defense to shore up Republican seats, 153 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:11,960 but they underperformed. Even by that standard. They only added one Republican 154 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:15,159 in the House and one in the Senate. I don't. I mean, 155 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:18,879 I think Democrats actually could find places where they thought it was a better night 156 00:11:18,919 --> 00:11:22,000 than counterpoint. I mean, should Democrats be playing defense in South Texas? 157 00:11:22,039 --> 00:11:26,519 Should Democrats be playing defense in Houston? No? But you know what, 158 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:31,000 like take the win, right? Yeah, But if we're looking at this 159 00:11:31,039 --> 00:11:37,440 from a big picture standpoint, about is Texas becoming a more competitive state politically 160 00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:39,000 over the long term? No, Well, then there you go. I 161 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:43,600 think there's a lot of Democrats who believed, you know, a week ago, 162 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,759 that the answer to that was yes. And I think if you look 163 00:11:46,799 --> 00:11:48,519 at the history of Greg Abbott in particular, you know, he wins in 164 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:56,399 twenty fourteen by over twenty percentage points. He twenty sixteen happens, Trump wins 165 00:11:58,279 --> 00:12:01,320 what nine points something like that. Yeah, twenty eighteen happens Abbott wins by 166 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:07,600 around twelve percentage points. Beto Arourke comes extremely close. If Beto loses by 167 00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:11,240 six in this race, I think you can look and you can say that 168 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:16,320 trend line is still going on. You talk about the urban or the rural 169 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,960 firewall, you can look at the way the state is changing. It is 170 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,039 a state that is becoming much less rural, it's becoming more suburban and urban 171 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:26,039 areas where Democrats have been growing. Of course, demographics as well, the 172 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:33,039 state becoming, you know, the less. You know, the white non 173 00:12:33,159 --> 00:12:39,399 Hispanics are now the not the largest demographic group in the state. But then 174 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:43,159 you have to kind of pause after this, and Alexi, you talked about 175 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:48,440 how the turnout did not match twenty eighteen levels, and you, I think, 176 00:12:48,519 --> 00:12:52,759 have to begin wondering what was the outlier here? And you can look 177 00:12:52,799 --> 00:12:56,759 at twenty eighteen where that turnout was so much higher, and it starts to 178 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,960 look more like an outlier than something plain out in a trend. And I 179 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,759 think if you're a Democrat thinking long term about this state, that's got to 180 00:13:03,759 --> 00:13:07,799 be pretty concerning to you. I think if you're a Democrat, you're kind 181 00:13:07,799 --> 00:13:11,840 of wishing in some ways that Trump was on the ballot in one way or 182 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:16,600 another this selection, because if you look at the margins over time in a 183 00:13:16,639 --> 00:13:20,399 lot of these counties, it narrows when people are either reacting to Trump because 184 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:24,720 he's on the ballot, or it's in the midterm election reacting to that first 185 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,919 term of his as president. I mean, it really is a driving factor, 186 00:13:30,159 --> 00:13:33,120 and without that, there's not a whole lot to write home about. 187 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:37,200 I also think, though, to Evan's point about this weird night where you 188 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,840 had some outcomes that were good for Democrats of top less gray at the bottom 189 00:13:41,919 --> 00:13:46,200 or the opposite, we should also note that this is the first state mid 190 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:50,799 term without straight ticket voting. And I think in twenty eighteen we saw these 191 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:56,360 sort of sweeps of Democrats in a lot of these urban counties and people notice 192 00:13:56,399 --> 00:13:58,919 that, but guess what, we had straight ticket voting, and so people 193 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:03,000 could select at the top and vote for every single Democrat on that ballot, 194 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,840 and that helped them. And this time around they didn't have that. Let's 195 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,799 suck a little bit more about Greg Abbott here. So you disagree with my 196 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:13,720 idea that he might have been the second most successful, well, I think. 197 00:14:13,759 --> 00:14:18,320 I mean you're talking about Rod DeSantis being for the most successful. Well, 198 00:14:18,759 --> 00:14:20,559 I think he did fine. And if I'm Greg Abbott or I'm the 199 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,559 Avid Political Operation and I'm looking at twenty four, I absolutely think that the 200 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,480 result last night positions him to run for president. I think it's going to 201 00:14:28,519 --> 00:14:33,720 be a crowded field. And look, he's had a successful run with an 202 00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:37,600 economy, you know, ninth largest economy in the world or whatever it is 203 00:14:37,639 --> 00:14:41,000 that's consistently been, you know, at the top of all the rankings. 204 00:14:41,039 --> 00:14:50,960 Like I think, I just don't think it was about him only last night. 205 00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:56,279 If you look at what happened in Pennsylvania, doctor Oz obviously not performing 206 00:14:56,279 --> 00:14:58,720 well. If you look at what seems to be happening, I guess it's 207 00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:03,039 maybe too early to tell. In Arizona and the governor's race, for instance, 208 00:15:03,519 --> 00:15:07,679 you see a situation where some of the most Trump aligned Republicans, some 209 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:13,919 of the more non traditional Republicans, did much more poorly than the Dysantis and 210 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:22,120 Abbot, who have both pursued very conservative policies over the term over their times 211 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:28,600 as governor, but have not kind of stylistically been the same as Trump. 212 00:15:28,799 --> 00:15:31,320 And I can have it, Bear hugged him the way. That's exact, 213 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,399 people, you're referring to it exactly. And so if I'm Abbot right now, 214 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:39,279 what I'm saying is that I just showed you with DeSantis. Maybe you 215 00:15:39,399 --> 00:15:45,559 don't say that part out loud, how Republicans can be successful, you know, 216 00:15:45,679 --> 00:15:48,519 across the country moving forward in kind of a post Trump world, and 217 00:15:48,639 --> 00:15:54,840 the way that Trump was a drag on the ticket for Republicans in Texas in 218 00:15:54,919 --> 00:15:58,600 twenty eighteen and twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty probably as well. When you 219 00:15:58,679 --> 00:16:02,960 remove him from that equation and put me at the top of that ticket, 220 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,120 we do a lot better. Well, I think it's easier said than done 221 00:16:07,159 --> 00:16:10,080 when Trump is not running in the same election cycle. But when he gets 222 00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:11,519 in, I mean, he just like sucks up all the oxygen out of 223 00:16:11,559 --> 00:16:15,600 the room. Like I don't know if that will be a successful pitch. 224 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:21,399 Like once, if President Trump decides to jump into the presidential in twenty twenty 225 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:26,279 four, I don't think that Abin and DeSantis can clearly make that argument to 226 00:16:26,679 --> 00:16:33,720 voters because Trump's base is so strong and so loud that I just don't I 227 00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:34,639 just don't know. I mean that that may be the point, and I 228 00:16:34,639 --> 00:16:38,399 did see Republicans talking about that, like we you know, this night proves 229 00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:42,480 that we've got to move on from Trump if Republicans want to be successful, 230 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:49,080 But I just I think it's a lot harder, it's a lot easier said 231 00:16:48,799 --> 00:16:53,519 than done. And even run if Trump runs I'm so glad you asked. 232 00:16:53,519 --> 00:16:56,240 See. I actually think there's a much higher probability, and I think Trump 233 00:16:56,279 --> 00:16:59,960 is probably going to run now. I've been thinking all along that Trump might 234 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,480 not run, or if he did run, he might not be the nominee. 235 00:17:03,039 --> 00:17:04,880 The latter still remains to be seen. It looks now like the former 236 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:10,920 is gonna happen. He's teasing next week as an announcement date for a presidential 237 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:15,599 campaign. I think the probability, or the possibility at least of DeSantis running 238 00:17:15,759 --> 00:17:19,160 regardless of what Trump does, is high. I have a hard time imagining 239 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:23,319 if Trump runs that Abbott runs. I could be proven wrong about that, 240 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,119 of course, but I just don't know where the lane for him is right 241 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,720 there, So we'll have to see. I mean, I totally agree with 242 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,799 your point that well Trump, I don't think Trump picks him as his VP 243 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,240 if he runs against him in a primary. I'm not sure that he would 244 00:17:37,279 --> 00:17:41,480 be Trump's VP anyway. Trump's already gonna win Texas to the next presidential race. 245 00:17:41,519 --> 00:17:45,240 Abbot doesn't really get him anything. Carrie Lake gets him something. Now 246 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:51,519 she has to win the governor's races this time. Christy nom well picking a 247 00:17:51,559 --> 00:17:56,799 woman probably helps him in some respects regardless of where from. But again, 248 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,759 is Aba gonna run to your question, is Aba gonna run if Trump runs? 249 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:04,200 I don't know. I don't know. Yeah, Well, speaking of 250 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:10,359 people who run, Vetto O'Rourke has now run for three races. That's what 251 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:11,880 you call a segue. Yes, thank you, thank you very much, 252 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:17,720 thank you very much. He has now run three campaigns in four years. 253 00:18:17,799 --> 00:18:22,599 He has lost them all. He has kind of been the standard bearer, 254 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,599 the kind of de facto leader of the Democratic Party during that entire time. 255 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:32,519 This, as you said, Evan was not a good loss. I mean, 256 00:18:32,559 --> 00:18:40,359 he basically performed as well as the unfunded Lupe Valdez in twenty eighteen. 257 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,759 Is this the end for him? I think you can read an excellent story 258 00:18:45,799 --> 00:18:52,279 on Texas Tribune about this very subject. You know, who knows who knows 259 00:18:52,319 --> 00:18:56,960 politics is a crazy thing and that people can come back from basically the dad 260 00:18:57,079 --> 00:19:03,119 and go on and have really successful I think, you know, even his 261 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,720 comments last night talking about this may be the last time I'm up here talking 262 00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:11,000 in front of you all. The next person, the next door work that 263 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,559 will be on the ballot might be my wife Amy. That was a joke. 264 00:19:15,599 --> 00:19:19,279 But you know, just comments like that I think indicate to you or 265 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,880 to everyone really that he may want to take a break. And to be 266 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:27,119 fair, I mean, running campaigns, particularly statewide campaigns in the state as 267 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:32,880 big as Texas is really friggin hard, and so like, he probably does 268 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,960 want to go home and spend time with his family, with his wife and 269 00:19:36,079 --> 00:19:40,640 kids. So you can't really blame the guy. But also just politically, 270 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,640 it might be good for him, not just personally and for his mental health, 271 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,799 but it might be good for him to just like give give it room 272 00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:52,759 to breathe a little bit. Right, People do have bit or work fatigue. 273 00:19:52,519 --> 00:19:56,519 Voters certainly had it, and at this point voters had made up their 274 00:19:56,559 --> 00:20:03,079 mind even before really the real start of the race about better o' work and 275 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,960 whether they liked him or not. So you know, you give it some 276 00:20:07,079 --> 00:20:11,480 time. The positive name I D you know, goes down a little, 277 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,759 but you know what goes down more the negative ID and people might just the 278 00:20:15,759 --> 00:20:21,000 same way that now people talk about President George W. Bush in some democratic 279 00:20:21,039 --> 00:20:22,359 areas of the country and they say, gosh, we really missed that guy. 280 00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:25,759 But you know, when he was president, they didn't really they didn't 281 00:20:25,759 --> 00:20:27,440 really like him. So if you give it some time, you know, 282 00:20:27,559 --> 00:20:32,680 maybe he rehabs his image. Maybe he reba rehabs his name. Also depending 283 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,359 on what he does, maybe he runs a nonprofit, Maybe he goes, 284 00:20:34,839 --> 00:20:38,319 I don't know, to Wall Street. Maybe he becomes an organizer or a 285 00:20:38,319 --> 00:20:44,119 big time fundraiser, fundraiser for the party. God knows they really need both 286 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,319 of those. So, you know, can he is it over? I 287 00:20:48,319 --> 00:20:51,279 don't think that it's over. He's still a big name. It would be, 288 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,559 I think, unwise to completely send him out to pasture. But what 289 00:20:55,599 --> 00:20:59,680 does he do next? I think that's that's the big question right now. 290 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,720 He's basically the Buffalo Bills and that he was very, very promising and got 291 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,480 there and got very close a couple of times. But I think he's Harold 292 00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:08,559 Stassen, which is a reference that none of you on this stage are going 293 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,200 to get because you're too young. But I think he's basically somebody who ran 294 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,839 and ran and ran and ran and ran and ran, and now he can't 295 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,920 run anymore. I don't think he could run again. I think it's over. 296 00:21:19,039 --> 00:21:22,119 I think this is it. I think I take him at his word 297 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:26,960 last night and the party needs new people. Where is everybody else? Yeah, 298 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,119 and better's defense, It's not like there are other people lining up to 299 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,519 run for governor that he kind of cleared out of the way. It was 300 00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:37,599 basically him or knowing it almost felt like, right, he basically had to 301 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,759 be convinced to run this time because nobody else was running and the rest of 302 00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:45,119 the ticket wasn't a super strong ticket, right, And so he came around 303 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,359 at a time in twenty eighteen where they were desperate, they had nobody. 304 00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:52,000 And remember in twenty eighteen, I think the Texas Tribune pool showed that, 305 00:21:52,079 --> 00:21:55,160 like nobody knew who Bette or work was when he started that race, and 306 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:59,279 he barnstormed the state and then people he sort of captured that lightning in a 307 00:21:59,319 --> 00:22:02,000 bottle, but nobody knew who he was. So to his credit, I 308 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:07,119 mean, he did sort of revitalize this like minority party that just had nobody 309 00:22:07,279 --> 00:22:10,839 to challenge. Ted Cruz didn't have a bench, still doesn't have a bench, 310 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,480 and he fulfilled a certain role over these last four years. But I 311 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:19,440 think there are major questions of could that money, those record breaking amounts of 312 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:25,799 money that he raised, could they have been put to better use by other 313 00:22:25,839 --> 00:22:30,319 Democrats and also by bettel Ark himself. Like if we're talking about like organization 314 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,920 and fundraising, like some of that money, I think other Democrats and other 315 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:38,319 Democrats down ballot from him would argue, hey man, you could have you 316 00:22:38,319 --> 00:22:42,279 know, spread the cheese around a little bit. How are should Democrats be 317 00:22:42,319 --> 00:22:51,079 about their bench? Right now? What bench? I mean, it's interesting 318 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:56,000 to have watched Bethel run for two statewide offices now and kind of run separate 319 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:00,880 from the party sort of. I mean, they would have these sort of 320 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,240 events with the candidates, but that was never part of them. I don't 321 00:23:04,279 --> 00:23:07,440 think that I'm not sure that they There was a lot of like tension between 322 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:12,279 them, but they weren't operating together in any sort of way. But I 323 00:23:12,319 --> 00:23:15,400 also, I mean, the thing is, it's like, what are the 324 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:22,279 pathways to a bench for Democrats in Texas? Really? The only thing are 325 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,119 county judge positions, right, I mean, how there's nothing you can't go 326 00:23:26,279 --> 00:23:30,039 much higher than at the state ledge. If you're in a seat that's been 327 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:34,559 jerrymandered, you know, you're just trying to hold on to it. I 328 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:40,359 just don't know that there's even a whole lot of field on which for on 329 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:45,759 which Democrats can even build up the bench. I think there's some interesting members 330 00:23:45,759 --> 00:23:48,880 of the congressional delegation that you could look to. You know, Colin Allred, 331 00:23:49,599 --> 00:23:53,720 Veronica and Escobar has made a lot of these. Lizzie Fletcher has shown 332 00:23:53,759 --> 00:24:00,079 an ability to run and you know, more conservative leaning districts. Obviously that's 333 00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:03,200 not true of her district anymore. I think one of the questions there though, 334 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,720 is, of course it would take a lot to convince them to leave 335 00:24:07,839 --> 00:24:11,440 their comfortable seats and all because being in Congress is such a great thing. 336 00:24:12,759 --> 00:24:17,000 Well, you know, it's you don't lose. They all they are all 337 00:24:17,039 --> 00:24:19,200 now in districts that they can already's got little kids, and he might like 338 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,680 the idea of being back in Texas if he could figure out how to get 339 00:24:22,759 --> 00:24:25,200 himself from there to hear. Look, I think all Read and Escobar are 340 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:30,319 both really talented Democrats like O'Rourke, escobars from El Paso. No one from 341 00:24:30,319 --> 00:24:34,880 El Paso has ever been elected statewide in the history of Texas. Would be 342 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,599 interesting, actually, if she made a run at that. I think those 343 00:24:38,599 --> 00:24:45,240 are two good suggestions. I think we're past the Castros, probably as statewide 344 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,599 candidates maybe, right, I know there was there's always been some discussion of 345 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,039 that. You know, I'm curious to come back to Lena Hidalgo about what 346 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:59,559 surviving this near death experience last night means for her. Right, She's an 347 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:04,640 enormous talented She has controversies, as everybody in elective office does from time to 348 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,160 time around her, and that was actually what put her on the back of 349 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,960 her heels in part this election cycle. But she she cheated death in this 350 00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:15,920 cycle, so she gets another four years in this job. She's like barely 351 00:25:17,039 --> 00:25:22,680 thirty one. I think there's been a lot of assumption to Alexis point about 352 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,079 local officials potentially being and also, she's the chief executive of a county that, 353 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:30,200 with four point six million people, Harris County would be the twenty fifth 354 00:25:30,319 --> 00:25:36,240 largest state if it were its own state. You know, why did Lena 355 00:25:36,319 --> 00:25:38,440 Hidagg run to gov for governor? She's already governor. She's governor of Harris 356 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:42,599 County, right, So I mean, I think you have to assume that 357 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:47,319 she is potentially somebody in the mix among the mayors that would be the other 358 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:53,000 category of people, you know, Sylvester Turner, Yeah, Eric Johnson eh, 359 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,440 sounds so excited. Well, I'm just saying like, if you're asking, 360 00:25:56,599 --> 00:26:00,640 I mean truth tests this, are those people potential state wide candidates anytime 361 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:07,839 soon? But was I mean, was Bethel a potential state white candidate the 362 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,240 first time he ran? No? And I agree with you and James's point. 363 00:26:11,279 --> 00:26:12,079 Nobody knew who he was. I think, by the way, that's 364 00:26:12,079 --> 00:26:15,119 one of the differences between twenty eighteen and twenty twenty two. People said, 365 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,799 well, he did so well last time, why didn't do so well this 366 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,559 time? Because last time he caught everybody off guard, and this time he 367 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,359 caught nobody off guard. The fact that nobody knew who he was the first 368 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,279 time was a feature and not a bug. Yeah, blank slate, right, 369 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,359 I mean, I think are there other people in the delegation for whom 370 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,359 that same or to whom that same thing could apply? All reads an example 371 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,519 sort of has a great resume, you know, Yeah, but you know 372 00:26:37,599 --> 00:26:41,000 you mentioned the Castro. Is the reason that Castro's time passed was because they 373 00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:45,480 kept it seemed like they kept looking at races and saying this is past year 374 00:26:45,559 --> 00:26:48,759 and then passed And you know, joa king Castro I think still has a 375 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,799 strong presence in the state, but he's kind of rising through the ranks of 376 00:26:52,799 --> 00:26:56,599 Congress. Of course, you know that, you know, seems unlikely that 377 00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:00,279 Democrats will continue to be in control of the House. But you know, 378 00:27:00,319 --> 00:27:06,640 you also it also has to be a situation where someone is willing to step 379 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,799 up and take that risk, and there are a number of talented people in 380 00:27:10,799 --> 00:27:12,680 the LED slates roll though it's very hard to go from a House seat to 381 00:27:12,759 --> 00:27:18,000 a statewide office. You know, I was the editor of Texas Monthly when 382 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:22,160 we published a story that saying Raphael an Chia is going to be the first 383 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,440 Hispanic governor of Texas. That was like two thousand and six. It's sixteen 384 00:27:25,519 --> 00:27:27,200 years later. They still can't get him to run for anything other than his 385 00:27:27,279 --> 00:27:32,400 seat. Trey Martinez Fisher is going to run for Attorney General any minute now, 386 00:27:32,519 --> 00:27:36,000 just wait. Leaving aside the question of whether either of those folks would 387 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,960 have been successful, or anybody from the House would be successful, there are 388 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,920 a lot of people who have been mentioned to your point about the Castros overtime 389 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,839 as potentially that white candidates who for whatever the reasons, don't jump off. 390 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:48,559 You got to run. You can't win if you don't run. You might 391 00:27:48,599 --> 00:27:52,079 not win if you do, but you certainly won't win if you don't. 392 00:27:52,319 --> 00:27:57,400 And we wrote a story before the end of like the filing period last year, 393 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:02,079 which was like, why is better or running again at the top of 394 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,119 the ticket for this party that's supposed to be like the you know, the 395 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,000 Party of diversity, right, And we talked a little bit about like the 396 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,559 lack of a democratic bench, and a couple of things go into that. 397 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,119 One is that, yeah, people don't want to shoot their shots because they've 398 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,400 got pretty safe seats where they're doing a lot of the things that they want 399 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:23,200 to do. But also that like there just isn't sort of the infrastructure for 400 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:30,319 them to take two three bites at the apple like there sometimes is for Republicans. 401 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,319 Like you know, Eva Guzman is a good example. I think they 402 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,039 put her away or can packs and put her cam packs and put her away 403 00:28:37,079 --> 00:28:41,039 in the attorney general primary this year, but she's still like in the like 404 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,119 ether of like Texas politics. And I don't think it's a big secret that 405 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,680 Greg Abbott and Date Feelin really would like to keep her around and ever be 406 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:55,000 a state wide candidate and another another time, but like that opportunity isn't offered 407 00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:57,799 to democrats a whole lot, particularly democrats of color. You know, you 408 00:28:57,839 --> 00:29:02,680 get a lot of better bettle works, you get a lot of Wendy Davis's, 409 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,759 Mike Collier, we haven't talked about mikeller also a three time loser at 410 00:29:06,759 --> 00:29:08,960 this point, stay right, right, right. Candidates of color don't really 411 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:14,119 get that opportunity. It's like once you once you lose, you're you're done. 412 00:29:14,839 --> 00:29:18,039 So it is, it is difficult. I think there has to be 413 00:29:18,119 --> 00:29:22,000 some infrastructure and organizing to allow people to take multiple shots at it. And 414 00:29:22,039 --> 00:29:25,960 you also, like it's also on the candidates, like you gotta you gotta 415 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,680 be good at politics, you know, like I think counterpoint to your Lena 416 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,160 id allgo thing like is she that talented? Like I'm sure she can. 417 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,559 She's governed well, I think, uh in Harris County, but the politics, 418 00:29:37,599 --> 00:29:40,640 like she's not very good at the politics. Like that race I don't 419 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,920 think should have been as close as it was. Uh, she she really 420 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:51,039 got like out outran uh in terms of like Meeler's campaign did so much damage 421 00:29:51,079 --> 00:29:53,640 before they started responding, And you really got to wise up if you want 422 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,200 to run a successful state wide campaign, which is the same thing that happens 423 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,920 to like most of these like Democratic camp it is, which is they swing 424 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,440 so far to the left by the time you want to swing back to the 425 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,319 middle where you're probably gonna win in a state like Texas, too, it's 426 00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:10,880 too far. You've gone too far. And that's probably what happened to Betto 427 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,720 too. He was this blank slate to everybody in twenty eighteen. He swung 428 00:30:12,759 --> 00:30:17,559 way far to the left during the presidential run, and in twenty twenty two 429 00:30:17,559 --> 00:30:18,799 everyone knew what he was about, or thought they knew what he was about, 430 00:30:18,839 --> 00:30:22,039 and they weren't buying what he was selling. Yeah, you know, 431 00:30:22,079 --> 00:30:23,920 I was struck at how at the top of the ticket. In the state 432 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:29,880 wide races you didn't see much of a drop off between Abbot and Patrick and 433 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,039 Paxton. You know, Abbot won by or is up currently by around eleven 434 00:30:34,079 --> 00:30:37,920 points. Paxton. Last I looked right before we came in here, it 435 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,920 was nine point nine points. That's not a big difference. In Harris County, 436 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,000 there was quite a bit of a drop off, as you mentioned. 437 00:30:45,039 --> 00:30:51,119 You said, Betto won that by eight percent, and Hidalgo at least this 438 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:55,599 morning was leading by about one point five percentage points. That's a pretty good 439 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,000 drop off. You know who has an even bigger margin than Abbott Patrick were 440 00:30:59,039 --> 00:31:03,559 passed it as Glenn Hay. You know, some of the down ballot Republicans 441 00:31:03,559 --> 00:31:06,640 actually had margins wider than the ones at the top. If I were buying 442 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:11,039 stock right now looking ahead to the next state wide elections, I think Hager 443 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,319 is a buye, and I think there are a couple of others who are 444 00:31:14,319 --> 00:31:17,839 probably buys also. I think you're finally seeing the next generation of these folks 445 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:22,160 emerge potentially. Yeah. And one of the things that some of us like 446 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,880 to do to get kind of the generic party breakdown is look at the Supreme 447 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,079 Court races, which are you know, races where very few people have any 448 00:31:29,119 --> 00:31:33,720 idea about any of the candidates on the ballot, and most of those the 449 00:31:33,759 --> 00:31:37,920 GOP advantages about nine percentage points, which is interesting because Abbott and really all 450 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:45,200 the other Sideway candidates outperformed that that baseline seemed notable. All right, let's 451 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:51,160 pause very briefly for a commercial break. I'm going to read a few messages 452 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:55,000 from our sponsors. Then we'll talk about South Texas and then open it up 453 00:31:55,119 --> 00:31:57,559 to the audience for any questions that they have as well. But first to 454 00:31:57,599 --> 00:32:02,839 thank you to our sponsors. Your Hand Texas supports public policy solutions that invest 455 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:08,000 in our students, encourage innovation and autonomy, and improve college and workforce readiness. 456 00:32:08,359 --> 00:32:13,480 Visit Raise your Hand Texas dot org. Texas twenty thirty six is the 457 00:32:13,519 --> 00:32:19,480 nonpartisan, nonprofit organization building long term, data driven strategies to help secure our 458 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:24,079 state's prosperity through our bi centennial and beyond. Visit Texas twenty thirty six dot 459 00:32:24,279 --> 00:32:30,079 org for more and Methodist Healthcare Ministries is committed to health equity, striving to 460 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:37,480 create more fair and just opportunities for all to thrive more at MHM dot org. 461 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:43,079 All right, South Texas, let's get into it. You're so exciting. 462 00:32:43,119 --> 00:32:46,759 I am excited, yes, because I have had individual conversations with Evan 463 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:51,519 and Alexa about this already, and they took very different positions on this. 464 00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:53,680 So I'm hoping that they will just argue for the next ten minutes here. 465 00:32:54,119 --> 00:32:58,599 I think we can arrange that, right. Yeah, So basically what we 466 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:04,400 saw here was three congressional seats that were being heavily contested t X fifteen t 467 00:33:04,599 --> 00:33:08,480 X twenty eight and TX thirty four. Republicans ended up winning one of them, 468 00:33:08,559 --> 00:33:15,119 Monica Dela Cruz defeating Michelle Vallejo. We had Henry Quaar winning by a 469 00:33:15,119 --> 00:33:20,039 pretty wide margin reelection in TX twenty eight, and Vicente Gonzalez, who switched 470 00:33:20,079 --> 00:33:24,359 from fifteen to thirty four due to how fifteen was redistricted, winning by a 471 00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:31,880 smaller margin but not an insignificant margin in that race too. The Republicans, 472 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:36,039 I think, have you know, we've seen a little bit of a celebration 473 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,640 of that t X fifteen races. You know, we continue to make inroads 474 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:45,519 in South Texas. Democrats would beg to differ. So which is it, 475 00:33:45,599 --> 00:33:49,720 Alexa, What should we make from those races? I think what you should 476 00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,200 make of it is that jerrymandering works, and this is a perfect example of 477 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:57,359 it. I mean, if you look at CD fifteen, it was a 478 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,599 district that I believe had initially gone for Biden by two points. It was 479 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:06,400 redrawn in the opposite direction to go for Trump by two points. We should 480 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,599 also point out that these districts they're not they're not. They don't just exist 481 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:19,639 along the border. They stretch up all the way to horrible so I think 482 00:34:19,639 --> 00:34:22,440 it was like a pejorative thing when they were first created. Anyway, not 483 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,159 great, but they run all the way up. I mean, these are 484 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:30,880 not sure they're South Texas districts because the people who are elected to represent them 485 00:34:30,079 --> 00:34:35,480 tend to live on the border. But these are not just representative of the 486 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,960 border. In fact, there were white counties put on top of Hispanic counties 487 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:42,480 to make the district more Republican right when they reru Yeah. Well, and 488 00:34:42,519 --> 00:34:45,000 the thing with CD fifteen, and we'll see this play out in the legal 489 00:34:45,079 --> 00:34:50,679 challenge to the way the map was drawn next summer, is that the challenges 490 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:55,480 that they flipped precincts in and out of the district to pull out high propensity 491 00:34:55,559 --> 00:35:01,360 voting Latino voters in that Iago County portion of it with lower propensity voters. 492 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:07,280 And that's how they sort of that's how they made the neighboring district thirty four 493 00:35:07,639 --> 00:35:10,880 better for the Democrat They packed voters in. That's what we'll see play out 494 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,280 in the litigation. But I think, I mean, if you look at 495 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:19,320 CD fifteen, if you look at the breakdown of which candidate won each county 496 00:35:19,519 --> 00:35:22,840 from Iago all the way up, I mean it's a gradient from blue to 497 00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:30,039 red right, because it's still the Republicans. While they will sure they are 498 00:35:30,679 --> 00:35:35,880 making some gains in some of these communities, these are not wholesale gains. 499 00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,760 And even if you look at their one win, which was by design, 500 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:44,280 they did not win in the areas that they are purporting to make the most 501 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:50,199 gains in and the areas that are the population centers when you talk about the 502 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:55,159 valley and if you go one for three, that's not great. Indeed. 503 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:59,280 Yeah, I mean, I think the idea I was kind of surprised that 504 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,360 they the Kwayar seat was even something that they thought was realistic. Maybe that's 505 00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:07,519 just because I'm from Laredo and too because thirty four was like a huge Biden 506 00:36:07,599 --> 00:36:08,960 advantage. So after they readrown, Yeah, I mean, I think they 507 00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:13,400 got real competent them into a frenzy. Yeah, And I think, you 508 00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:17,360 know, there's obviously a mismatch between the expectations of how well they thought they 509 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:21,960 would do in some of these communities and the reality of how well they can 510 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,280 perform when they don't have the advantage of jerrymandering on their side. There's a 511 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,000 little bit of clarity, you know that seen in Jurassic Park, where the 512 00:36:29,039 --> 00:36:31,880 person is standing so close to the dinosaur does not see that it's a dinosaur 513 00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:37,639 until you pull back far enough. I think that the special election in thirty 514 00:36:37,679 --> 00:36:42,679 four that Mayra Flores won was the dinosaur, and as we were standing close 515 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,360 to it, we couldn't actually see what was going on until we got a 516 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,000 little bit farther back from it. Special elections are special. They have the 517 00:36:49,039 --> 00:36:52,880 word special in the name. They're not normal. They're low turnout. You 518 00:36:52,960 --> 00:37:00,440 can orchestrate a sneak attack when in a special election in a way that you 519 00:37:00,519 --> 00:37:04,119 cannot in a general election. The media, and it's a good thing. 520 00:37:04,159 --> 00:37:08,480 We don't know anybody in the media were susceptible to being spun on the significance 521 00:37:08,519 --> 00:37:14,119 of Flores's victory in the special election. We were all told see South Texas 522 00:37:14,159 --> 00:37:19,280 as turning Republican, as opposed to they pickpocketed a district during a special election. 523 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,039 I've always suspected that the narrative coming out of twenty twenty was a little 524 00:37:23,079 --> 00:37:30,440 bit uncertain. We had in twenty twenty a pandemic election in which one side, 525 00:37:30,519 --> 00:37:36,119 the Democrats, campaigned from zoom from their houses, didn't leave the other 526 00:37:36,159 --> 00:37:38,800 side of the Republicans pretended that there wasn't a pandemic and went out and knocked 527 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:44,239 on doors, and they were more successful in getting people to vote for them 528 00:37:44,639 --> 00:37:47,679 campaigning in person than the Democrats were campaigning on zoom. And we were told, 529 00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:52,440 aha, see this means that the Valley South Texas Hispanics are more open 530 00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,760 to Republicans. I think it was a weird election cycle, and I wanted 531 00:37:55,800 --> 00:38:00,559 to see what an actual election cycle where both sides were heating would tell us 532 00:38:00,599 --> 00:38:05,800 about whether that was an anomaly or that was the new normal. I think 533 00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,840 what we learned yesterday is that it's kind of inconclusive as to whether this is 534 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:13,559 the new normal. Yes, Valverdian Zapota counties, we were talking about this 535 00:38:13,599 --> 00:38:17,239 earlier, did in twenty twenty flip from being longtime blue counties to being red 536 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:22,280 counties. They were in twenty twenty, they were again yesterday. And yes, 537 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:28,000 there's a district that now has a Republican candidate successful in the valley representing 538 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,119 the valley in Congress. But you know, the Saint Ankenzales beat Mira Flores 539 00:38:32,119 --> 00:38:37,079 in that race, and you know, Democrats said all along, don't listen 540 00:38:37,119 --> 00:38:39,000 to the noise on this. This is still a district that we can win. 541 00:38:40,199 --> 00:38:44,840 I didn't see a lot of evidence in the Valley in South Texas yesterday 542 00:38:45,039 --> 00:38:49,880 that the Republicans have made significant in roads. They've made some inroads to your 543 00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,480 point, Well, but Janie Lopez is up in her district in eighteen thirty 544 00:38:53,519 --> 00:38:59,280 seven. Sure, but Eddie Morales, we were all told Eddie Morales was 545 00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:00,880 going to lose the past district. He did, and we were told Abel 546 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,960 Herrero was going to lose his district. He didn't like. I think it's 547 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,039 a mixed bag. Yeah, I have a different take. I don't think 548 00:39:07,039 --> 00:39:09,280 it's inconclusive. I think actually, to you know, bring it back full 549 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:14,559 circle to like our our Texas elections more competitive. I think, at least 550 00:39:14,599 --> 00:39:16,239 in South Texas, it does seem like they are more competitive. And actually 551 00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:21,960 that may be a good thing for the voters of South Texas because Democrats have 552 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:27,119 been dominant in South Texas for so long that there is a dissatisfycent and those 553 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,000 those areas continue to be some of the poorest, more impoverished areas of the 554 00:39:30,039 --> 00:39:34,760 state, meaning, hey, what have these guys done for me lately? 555 00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,880 Right? And so there was this discontent. When we wrote stories about about 556 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,719 those areas, people were like, well, we've voted for Democrats for so 557 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:45,559 long, getting someone different, maybe a breath of fresh point when he switched 558 00:39:45,559 --> 00:39:52,480 parties. Democrats have taken Hispanics for granted in the valley and then not done 559 00:39:52,519 --> 00:39:54,480 anything. And I don't think they are I don't think voters are wrong to 560 00:39:54,519 --> 00:39:58,280 say that. I think that they may have a point. And so when 561 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:04,800 you have a competition of ideas where Republicans and Democrats both have to get after 562 00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,760 it, and let's be clear, Henry Quaar and Visensa Gonzalez did have to 563 00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:15,559 get after it to win their elections. But it's actually good, Like it's 564 00:40:15,639 --> 00:40:17,320 good for democracy, it's good for the exchange of ideas. It's good for 565 00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:22,760 voters because they get to hear a diversity of opinions. And so, you 566 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,400 know, we're talking about Democrats versus Republicans. But for the voters this actually 567 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:29,440 may be good. They may like come out and listen to myra floors and 568 00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,119 say, you know what, thank you for coming man. We don't like 569 00:40:31,159 --> 00:40:34,920 your ideas. We're gonna stick with our guy. But I think this is 570 00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,880 actually pretty good. Yeah, I think if you take a place like the 571 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:42,199 Rial Grand Valley. It has some of the highest uninsured rates in Texas, 572 00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:46,480 probably in the country. It has huge I mean the uninsured rate for children, 573 00:40:46,639 --> 00:40:51,679 the poverty rate. I mean, they're incredibly and horribly high. If 574 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:57,639 you're a Democrat and you are trying to make your case to those voters at 575 00:40:57,639 --> 00:41:00,719 a higher level, right if you're not a city council person or a mayor, 576 00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:05,000 if you're trying to run for state office in any way, you say, 577 00:41:05,119 --> 00:41:07,639 hey, guess what would help you. Maybe Medicaid expansion would help you. 578 00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,480 Hey, guess where that could happen. Oh, if we had enough 579 00:41:10,519 --> 00:41:14,360 people at the legislature to vote for it, or if we had a governor 580 00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,440 who would get behind it and campaign for it. I'm not saying that that's 581 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:20,880 what should happen and that's what those voters should support, but I think it 582 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:25,639 creates an opening for voters to have some sort of responsiveness from the people who 583 00:41:25,639 --> 00:41:30,800 are trying to win their votes instead of just these assumptions of who they're going 584 00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:32,880 to vote for. I think people in charge should make the case to people 585 00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:37,000 about why they should be given the power that their votes give them, and 586 00:41:37,079 --> 00:41:40,280 that they should work to make their lives better. And I think that this 587 00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:45,639 competitiveness in these areas where people do need so much help on just like basic 588 00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:49,639 life things does open the door for that. Yeah, I think that's a 589 00:41:49,639 --> 00:41:52,960 great point, and I think it is about like, even though some of 590 00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:59,480 these districts were gerrymandered, and even though the Texas electorate isn't what Democrats necessarily 591 00:42:00,119 --> 00:42:04,360 want it to be, right, it's still more republican state, even independence 592 00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,719 lean more conservative. What Democrats have to understand is that you've got to, 593 00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:13,360 like, you've got to go out and win the voters that you have to 594 00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,320 win in your district or in the state, instead of trying to tell the 595 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:22,679 voters what you wish that they believed and expecting them to come to you like 596 00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:24,440 it's like, what do you all want? And that those are the issues 597 00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:28,199 that I'm going to run on where right now? I think it's a little 598 00:42:28,199 --> 00:42:30,159 bit of the inverse. I would second, by the way, what James 599 00:42:30,159 --> 00:42:34,679 said earlier about competition being a good thing for everybody. We had way too 600 00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:40,000 many races to call at seven o'clock just by virtual of the fact that the 601 00:42:40,119 --> 00:42:47,039 party in power had no opponent in the other party. Last night because the 602 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,400 districts were drawn away where there was no competition, and so the party not 603 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,440 in the seat decided it wasn't worth putting anybody up to run against that person. 604 00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:58,920 So you've got a whole bunch of districts around the state where you didn't 605 00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,960 even have a choice, there was no competition. And I do think that 606 00:43:02,079 --> 00:43:07,360 what you said is exactly right. It's bad for the voters in that community 607 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,360 not to at least have a choice of ideas to listen to. So good 608 00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:14,079 for you for saying that that's good. All right, Well, we have 609 00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,199 two microphones up in the room. Are there any audience members who would like 610 00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:24,480 to ask a question? Good? Thanks, My question is for Evan, 611 00:43:24,559 --> 00:43:29,239 but anyone's welcome to chime man. What do you think it would take for 612 00:43:29,519 --> 00:43:34,199 Democrats to win stay wide in Texas? I go back to what I said 613 00:43:34,199 --> 00:43:37,559 earlier about rural communities. I mean, I know that the conventional wisdom for 614 00:43:37,639 --> 00:43:40,119 years has been you got to turn out more of your folks in your base, 615 00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,719 run the numbers up, and ultimately that gets you over the line. 616 00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,320 But you know the example I'll give actually, and Matthew called it out to 617 00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:51,719 feederman Osrays, what did you hear about Fetterman's victory last night. You heard 618 00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:55,159 that Fetterman liked bettoor work, traveled around to every county in Pennsylvania. He 619 00:43:55,280 --> 00:44:00,400 went to rural communities deliberately, and he got the Demomocratic share of the rural 620 00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:05,400 vote up to thirty five percent, thirty six percent, thirty seven percent. 621 00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:07,920 We published a story a couple of weeks ago that show that in the last 622 00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:14,079 four election cycles in Texas, Democrats have not cracked twenty five percent in rural 623 00:44:14,119 --> 00:44:17,440 communities, and Democrats have not been competitive statewide. And the assumption is you've 624 00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,639 got to get to at least thirty percent and probably even closer to thirty three 625 00:44:21,679 --> 00:44:24,360 percent in those counties. You don't have to win them, but you just 626 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:29,159 have to get more people to vote Democratic. What's it going to take. 627 00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,239 You need somebody who's going to be able to turn more rural folks out in 628 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:36,360 addition to getting not instead of but in addition to getting the base out. 629 00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,199 Geography as well as demography is the only way that Democrats, in my opinion, 630 00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:44,119 are going to get back to being competitive state wide. You may have 631 00:44:44,159 --> 00:44:45,760 a different point of view bout this. I wonder no I think that's correct. 632 00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:50,599 I think though that sometimes what gets lost in that is people will talk 633 00:44:50,599 --> 00:44:52,320 about rural Texas and assume that we're just talking about white people, which is 634 00:44:53,039 --> 00:44:58,599 which is not the case. And so I think that if Democrats are trying 635 00:44:58,639 --> 00:45:01,800 to think about rural Texas and the sort of outwhach that can happen there, 636 00:45:02,599 --> 00:45:07,679 there's probably a bit more common ground on different issues than people will assume because 637 00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:12,119 of these assumptions that are made about rural Texas. And you know, the 638 00:45:12,199 --> 00:45:16,000 other part of this is that the state is becoming more urban in nature. 639 00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:23,000 But it's also important to note that these big blue urban counties, that doesn't 640 00:45:23,039 --> 00:45:27,719 mean that everyone there is over eighteen and can vote, right. These counties 641 00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,119 are growing because of immigration international immigration, they're growing because of domestic migration, 642 00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:36,119 and they're growing because of natural increase because people are having children. And so 643 00:45:36,199 --> 00:45:38,760 that doesn't necessarily just because we are trending to be a more urban state doesn't 644 00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:43,480 mean we are trending to be a more urban state of adults who can vote, 645 00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:45,599 And so we have to sort of think about it that way as well. 646 00:45:46,039 --> 00:45:50,800 I'll say one more thing too, is that you've got to like lose 647 00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,599 your innocence if you're a Democrat and sort of just just play the game, 648 00:45:54,840 --> 00:46:00,760 you know, Texa politics full contact sport. And sometimes you gotta do things 649 00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:05,239 that you don't necessarily like. You got to say things that you don't necessarily 650 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,119 like to get into office to do the things you want to do. Governor 651 00:46:07,159 --> 00:46:10,239 Rabbit, I think is a perfect example. You know, he says the 652 00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:19,239 things to keep moderate business minded Republicans on his side and does enough to get 653 00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:23,679 the far right wing to go along with him because he can keep them appeased. 654 00:46:24,079 --> 00:46:29,000 And if they don't like it how far he's or if they don't like 655 00:46:29,039 --> 00:46:30,440 that he's not going far enough, all he's got to do is win the 656 00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,840 primary. And then what else are they gonna do. They're gonna vote for 657 00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:36,719 bett O'Rourke, They're gonna vote for Lupe Valdez. Like you just got to 658 00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:42,480 sort of be smart about this stuff. And again, like we said in 659 00:46:42,519 --> 00:46:45,840 the story, like with bet o' rourke, a perfect example is don't put 660 00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:51,239 yourself in policy holes that you can't get out of, like guns, like 661 00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:55,119 abortion. They've got to realize that, you know, particularly in rural Texas 662 00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:59,079 and a lot of these South Texas districts that we're talking about. Those are 663 00:46:59,159 --> 00:47:04,639 rural districts right where people have complicated feelings about abortion, where people like their 664 00:47:04,679 --> 00:47:08,320 guns. You've got to be smart about how you talk about those issues, 665 00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:12,239 because in twenty eighteen, PTO did show up to all two hundred and fifty 666 00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,480 four counties. He didn't have specific policies about those things, so there was 667 00:47:15,519 --> 00:47:19,760 no negatives once he said the things about guns, churches, and abortion. 668 00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,880 But still even in twenty eighteen, still didn't get the percentage in those counties 669 00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:28,239 up to a degree that he could be competitive. Yeah, I'm curious to 670 00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:31,039 hear more about rural voters and hearing that they saved Republicans Bacon. You know, 671 00:47:31,079 --> 00:47:35,119 there's this article that y'all put out, I think it was two days 672 00:47:35,159 --> 00:47:38,199 ago about how rural Texan is really real. Texas is really struggling with hospitals 673 00:47:38,199 --> 00:47:43,000 closing. The teacher shortage is terrible there. They have no broadband or poor 674 00:47:43,039 --> 00:47:46,519 broadband. What I feel like there's a disconnect. So what do y'all think 675 00:47:46,559 --> 00:47:51,239 is happening there? And why do they care about something else that we're missing? 676 00:47:51,559 --> 00:47:55,199 What's going on with those voters. I'm probably the worst person to answered 677 00:47:55,199 --> 00:47:59,559 this question because because I don't spend a whole lot of time in rural Texas, 678 00:47:59,599 --> 00:48:02,639 but we're trying our hardiest and we've got people in rural areas of the 679 00:48:02,639 --> 00:48:07,840 state now. But just to you know, we talked about it's the economy 680 00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,360 stupid James Carver nineteen ninety two. Right. The other two parts of that 681 00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:15,920 were, it's the economy stupid one. Uh, don't forget about health care? 682 00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:20,719 Uh, and then change versus more of the same. Right, three 683 00:48:21,159 --> 00:48:25,519 topics that they told the campaign workers to hit on, right, and those 684 00:48:25,639 --> 00:48:29,719 all sort of affect you, like in your daily lives. Right, it's 685 00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,960 the economy, healthcare, like, you want to talk about healthcare, You 686 00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:36,599 want to talk about public schools with rural Texas because it's the number one employer 687 00:48:36,639 --> 00:48:39,159 out there. You want to talk about the loss of rural hospitals like it's 688 00:48:39,199 --> 00:48:44,119 a big issue out there, and you've got to just like focus on the 689 00:48:44,159 --> 00:48:47,079 issues and don't get distracted by all this other stuff. It just seemed like 690 00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:50,960 Democrats. Again I hate to pick on better or rourk, but like it 691 00:48:51,079 --> 00:48:53,719 just seemed like they were just throwing everything at the wall during the campaign cycle 692 00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,760 to see what would stick. Like, first there was the grid, which 693 00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,679 was a very serious issue, but then you know, then all of a 694 00:49:00,679 --> 00:49:04,280 sudden, the grid didn't fail, and then we moved on Operation Long Star 695 00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,039 was real bad in January, and then better work started talking about Operational Loan 696 00:49:07,119 --> 00:49:10,360 Star. Then some of those issues got resolved and we stopped talking about Operation 697 00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:14,159 Loan Star. Right, you can't just be throwing everything at the wall. 698 00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,239 You have to have a campaign strategy. You have to be talking about issues 699 00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:20,679 that matter to voters, and they've got to This is a thing like I 700 00:49:20,679 --> 00:49:22,480 don't think there's enough. And you know, if you talk to rural Democrats, 701 00:49:22,559 --> 00:49:24,920 which there's not a lot of them, guess why, Jerry Manderin, 702 00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:30,320 If you talk to rural Democrats, they're like, there is no infrastructure out 703 00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:32,840 here. They don't come out here. So how are they going to know 704 00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,159 our issues and what issues to talk about if they're not out here? And 705 00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:39,400 that is part of like maybe some of the organizing and infrastructure that needs to 706 00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:45,239 happen, because Republicans certainly have the infrastructure out there. Yeah. Well, 707 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:52,199 I also I also think that there's a disconnect between the priorities that democrats, 708 00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:58,239 particularly on the national level, center versus the reality on the ground in rural 709 00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:04,119 communities. So the idea of police brutality, for example, it's obviously a 710 00:50:04,159 --> 00:50:07,360 real issue. It affects so many people's lives. If you live in Harris 711 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:13,639 County and you're a black person or a brown person, you probably have even 712 00:50:13,639 --> 00:50:17,519 a personal experience that makes you identify with that issue. If you're a person 713 00:50:17,599 --> 00:50:22,760 living out in Lubbock, that might not be something that resonates with you. 714 00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:27,519 Right if you're talking about discrimination, if you're talking about fights over voting rights, 715 00:50:27,519 --> 00:50:30,760 and you've never had a problem to vote because the one polling place in 716 00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:35,079 your county is run by your grandma's friends who you see at the community center 717 00:50:35,159 --> 00:50:38,039 and at the local church. Like, the experiences of people living on the 718 00:50:38,039 --> 00:50:40,960 ground in so many of these communities are just so. I mean, the 719 00:50:42,039 --> 00:50:45,679 contrast between that and the way Democrats and exactly the loudest Democrats, which are 720 00:50:45,679 --> 00:50:49,440 those on the national level, talk about them, I mean, I'm not 721 00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:53,360 sure the gap could be wider, and so I don't know that a Democrat 722 00:50:53,639 --> 00:50:58,880 trying to run on a more local level would be successful until they can sort 723 00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,280 of break through or close that gap in some way or another. I would 724 00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:06,639 think the first step is showing up, but I would think the second step 725 00:51:06,679 --> 00:51:09,440 is also trying to break something of substance to those folks and try to you 726 00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:15,199 know, the same example that we that I offered about Democrats making their case 727 00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,800 to people on the border. You know, what are the issues that matter 728 00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:22,360 that could improve the lives of people in rural Texas and take those to them 729 00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:24,760 and show them how you can actually feel like for them in South Texas, 730 00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:29,800 like Republicans really chose to focus on the border and immigration and crime. Right, 731 00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,719 if you're like a let's say, like I'm just picking Odessa because they 732 00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:37,119 had the water problems earlier. You're a Democrat and you say, hey, 733 00:51:37,559 --> 00:51:39,960 your water infrastructure is broken, you pick me, and we're gonna fix it 734 00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:44,039 and we're not gonna have these problems with water infrastructure and you're gonna have water 735 00:51:44,079 --> 00:51:46,880 to drink and water to use. Like, I think that is like something 736 00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:52,000 that is much more affecting the voters of that area than some of the things 737 00:51:52,039 --> 00:51:54,920 that Alexa was going to right, you know, in fairness to bet to 738 00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:58,639 a work or anybody else who might travel to these counties, I do think 739 00:51:58,679 --> 00:52:00,639 the problem is not that they're not talking about issues that affect people on the 740 00:52:00,639 --> 00:52:05,280 ground. Yeah, the nationalizing of politics is not a help in those communities, 741 00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,039 no question want that. We know that there are more than seven hundred 742 00:52:08,039 --> 00:52:13,320 thousand kids enrolled in rural public schools, which is more rural students than in 743 00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:16,480 seventeen states combined, but sixty percent of rural public school districts don't have advanced 744 00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:21,119 placement classes. We know that seventy four counties all of the rural, have 745 00:52:21,199 --> 00:52:23,400 no hospitals, thirty two counties all of the rural, have no primary care 746 00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:28,519 doctor. We know that one out of three rural residents doesn't have access to 747 00:52:28,559 --> 00:52:31,519 high speed broadband, which was a problem before the pandemic and became even more 748 00:52:31,559 --> 00:52:37,400 of a problem with zoom school and telemedicine and lost economic development. And the 749 00:52:37,599 --> 00:52:42,159 estimate was that because we didn't have sufficient access to broadbanded rural communities, there 750 00:52:42,199 --> 00:52:45,159 was a five billion dollar lost economic benefit to the state of Texas. Like, 751 00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:49,880 we know what the data tells us, but we also know that people 752 00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,320 don't always vote in their self interest. This became clear to me first. 753 00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:55,480 The time I was first aware of this was in the two thousand and four 754 00:52:55,559 --> 00:53:00,320 presidential election. Which we forget. George W. Bush running for real election 755 00:53:00,559 --> 00:53:05,159 almost lost. It was like sixty thousand pot smokers in Ohio. If they 756 00:53:05,199 --> 00:53:08,280 had changed their votes, John Kerry would have been president. It came down 757 00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:14,440 to Ohio, and in Ohio, twenty five percent of the people who lost 758 00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:20,599 their healthcare during Bush's first term voted to re elect George Bush. It doesn't 759 00:53:20,639 --> 00:53:23,880 always come down to the issues that affect you. Sometimes you vote against your 760 00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:30,960 own self interest because you have a larger concern politically that Trump's all the issues. 761 00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:35,000 So sometimes even talking about the issues doesn't matter. But I saw bet 762 00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:39,800 To O'Rourke go to rural communities all throughout this election turn out enormous numbers of 763 00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:46,079 people, relatively speaking, talking about the grid, energy, healthcare, education. 764 00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:51,639 At the end of the day, the caricature of O'Rourke that the Abbot 765 00:53:51,639 --> 00:53:58,599 people put forward was enough to trump small t Trump anything that he did. 766 00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,159 In those communities people ended up voting against. You could argue their own self 767 00:54:02,159 --> 00:54:06,360 interest in those counties where there's no hospital, in those counties where there's no 768 00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:10,360 AP classes, in those counties where there's no broadband, it didn't matter because 769 00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:14,639 the caricature of O'Rourke was enough. I think that's true, but I think 770 00:54:14,679 --> 00:54:16,079 he also made it easier for them to do that. Oh of course, 771 00:54:16,119 --> 00:54:20,199 Well back to your earlier point that by this time everybody knows Betto he had 772 00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:23,760 a record that people were going to run against Abbot's. Abbot had plenty of 773 00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:29,159 material that crews did not have four years earlier. Fair or unfair, I 774 00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:31,519 agree, I agree with that. But you know you're correct to highlight the 775 00:54:31,599 --> 00:54:35,960 rural communities as a big challenge. And now the question is going to be 776 00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,920 in the next four years, will anything get done in those communities by the 777 00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:42,679 people who got elected yesterday? We don't know. I mean I do. 778 00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,119 It is strange because I don't get this sense, and maybe you all disagree, 779 00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:52,000 but I don't get the sentence that Democrats have presented a forceful argument of 780 00:54:52,559 --> 00:54:57,679 if you don't like the way things have gone in the last twenty five years, 781 00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:00,320 if your life has not improved in the loft twenty fifty, if your 782 00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:04,559 community has not improved, maybe you should consider changing who's in charge. Like 783 00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,840 don't I don't think that that was a forceful, united message that we saw 784 00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:13,519 from the Democrats. Necessarily that was Better's message. You said, you know, 785 00:55:13,519 --> 00:55:15,599 if you don't like the last eight years, and Abbot Abbot Abbot is 786 00:55:15,639 --> 00:55:19,320 the guy. I think that was better. But I think are on a 787 00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:22,159 more widespread level, like don't you can't necessarily hang on one candidate. I 788 00:55:22,159 --> 00:55:27,800 think if if you were as a sort of party infrastructure, you think that 789 00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:32,679 that would be what you would build your entire effort around. But I suppose 790 00:55:32,679 --> 00:55:36,320 you need a party infrastructure to do that. Well, it is their party, 791 00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:38,119 I mean, this is to James's point, is their party infrastructure? 792 00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:42,400 Right? If you're the Democrats, now, think about what it's like on 793 00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:45,800 the day after the election last night. You're the Democrats. Now you're looking 794 00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:49,119 ahead to twenty four into twenty six. There's another set of state white elections 795 00:55:49,119 --> 00:55:52,639 in four years. You need to begin work now to think about where you're 796 00:55:52,639 --> 00:55:55,519 going to find candidates. How are you going to put the infrastructure of the 797 00:55:55,519 --> 00:56:00,719 party to work to avoid happening in twenty six? What happens now? I 798 00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:02,880 mean they may be hoping for a Republican to win the presidency in twenty four, 799 00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:07,320 So the first midterm is bad for Republicans. What happened in twenty eighteen. 800 00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:10,039 But they're going to need to identify candidates they're going to need to figure 801 00:56:10,039 --> 00:56:15,599 out. I mean, I don't envy the task of the Democrats in the 802 00:56:15,639 --> 00:56:19,000 state right now. Yeah, and I think, you know a little bit 803 00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:22,920 off of Alexis point, like maybe that message hasn't spread through and through the 804 00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:28,440 state because like the organizing isn't there, Like in those you've got to be 805 00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,239 in those rural areas. You've got to be on those like hard to reach 806 00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:34,679 areas before the election year, right, Like you've got to build that out. 807 00:56:34,679 --> 00:56:39,239 You can't. What people hate is you come into them when you need 808 00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:42,800 something, right, you got no relationship with them, and then all of 809 00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,079 a sudden's an election. It's like, hey, where the Democrats come vote 810 00:56:45,079 --> 00:56:46,280 for us? Right, you got to do a little bit of the work 811 00:56:46,639 --> 00:56:52,960 before that. I'm not sure that the Democrats have that infrastructure, and we've 812 00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,760 talked about the Democrats, but also, I mean we have to give kudos 813 00:56:55,760 --> 00:57:00,719 to the Republicans who have that infrastructure, have stayed leadership that is very strong, 814 00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:07,280 having undisputed or maybe still disputed state leader in Greg Abbott, who gets 815 00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:10,559 behind the down ballot candidates, who helps them out, who sends money their 816 00:57:10,639 --> 00:57:15,800 way, sends kind donations their way. You just don't see that on the 817 00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:20,360 Democratic side, and Bettel is to fault for that. Also on his end, 818 00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,639 there was not that same type of coordination with the down ballot races. 819 00:57:25,119 --> 00:57:29,599 He shirked that to do his own thing, which is his prerogative. But 820 00:57:30,559 --> 00:57:34,639 that is the difference. On the Republican side, there is that infrastructure. 821 00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:37,079 That's because they've been winning for almost three decades, but also because they are 822 00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:42,079 very organized. They're all rowing in basically the same direction. Some of them 823 00:57:42,119 --> 00:57:45,400 steer a little further to the right, but they're basically rowing in the same 824 00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:50,239 direction, whereas the Democrats, I don't know which way they're rowing, and 825 00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:54,079 sometimes they're rowing against each other. Just one last thing to add here, 826 00:57:54,119 --> 00:58:00,719 which is that so much of politics is about identity right now. And I 827 00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:06,280 don't just mean that by racial identity or gender or anything like that, but 828 00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:10,280 the kind of groups that we sort ourselves in. And I think there is 829 00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:15,599 a very strong perception among a lot of people in South Texas and rural areas 830 00:58:15,599 --> 00:58:22,519 and some suburban areas of the Democrats being the sort of extremely online, extremely 831 00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:28,880 kind of elite approaching looking down on certain communities like that, and there are 832 00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:32,800 a lot of people who really don't like that caricature of Democrats, and I 833 00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:39,079 think that's a big problem in Texas and beyond as they try to push these 834 00:58:39,079 --> 00:58:43,840 policies, some of which actually benefit folks. But I think that's about all 835 00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:45,599 the time we have for today. We are right up at the end of 836 00:58:45,599 --> 00:58:50,559 the hour. So thank you to James, Alexa and Evan, Thank you 837 00:58:50,599 --> 00:58:55,360 to our sponsors Raise your Hand Texas Texas twenty thirty six and Methodist Healthcare Ministries 838 00:58:55,400 --> 00:59:01,960 of South Texas. And thank you to everyone for joining us. Thank you 839 00:59:04,039 --> 00:59:04,559 tell me Y