What is up, fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Damna Valley coming at
you with another one question podcast that involves the Washington Wizards before we cannonball into
that. Just the reminder slash the please rate, review, and subscribe to
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the podcast and YouTube descriptions. Two and so we cannon ball into this question
that I think I've talked about or danced around this podcast, and then it
sort of came to more of a topical head recently with Quentin Mayo from the
Mayo sub Stack, and he's also over at bet MGM and he's a podcast
go host for Blue Wire Pods as well. I believe wrote essentially that the
Wizards are confident that they that there's a package out there that they've given that
has them feeling they're in this race for Donovan Mitchell and not far behind New
York. So there's a couple of things here. This is not to say
the Wizards have an offer that can beat the Knicks, because they can't.
There's no team in the league. I won't say no team. There are
teams. I think if you envision the Pelicans or okay, see that theoretically,
maybe even Toronto, but they're not going to trade Scotty Barnes or SIOK
for Mitchell. But there might be one or two teams that theoretically could offer
a more attractive package for Mitchell, but they don't have the incentive to or
the outright desire right now to the Wizards just flat out can't when you look
at their assets structure. But we're going to get into that, and the
question becomes They've been linked to Dono Mitchell before by Sean Sharania. This is
more of like a concrete link though, where there's still no details as to
what this package is that they're confident in. But at least Quentin Mayo doesn't
dance around the fact that they believe they have a competitive offer. Could they
be trying to frame this in a way that makes this seem like they're active
and they're more involved whatever. But the question is, can do the Wizards
have enough to entice teams into making a blockbuster trade or do they have enough
assets to make a viable blockbuster trade package. This is not the same as
saying it's Mitchell only. I will use him as an example throughout this just
because he's the star who he knows available right now, and it's not to
say that they can beat every other package that's out there. But just because
teams can beat a certain package doesn't mean that they're going to We've seen this
time and again that, yes, teams that are trading stars don't typically get
fleeced, but there are always other teams out there that could, if they
wanted to, for the most part, offer more. There are, I
don't want to call them rare instances, but you know, the Minnesota Rudy
Gobert deal, it's very rare that we look at a trade and say,
oh, there was no team in the league that was going to or could
have offered more. You even look at that with Brooklyn there was and James
Harden. There was debate as to whether their package was the best, was
something built around Ben Simmons back them from the Sixers even better? Were there
are other teams that could have came in with picks, more picks or more
let's say enticing picks long term at the time. It's then they actually did.
And so I'm not trying to frame this as oh, can the Wizards
outbid the Knicks for Donovan Mitchell? I do not think that they can.
However, when everyone points to their inability to cobble together a trade package.
They harp on this first round pick that's owed to the Knicks and protected until
Kingdom cub and so let's start there. The Wizards owe twenty twenty three first
to the Knicks. It's lottery protected for next year. Then in twenty twenty
four it's top twelve protected, in two twenty five it is top ten protected,
and then is top nine or eight protected, I believe in two twenty
six. After that, if it is not conveyed, it turns into two
seconds. If the Wizards stay the same, there's a fairer chance that that
pick never conveys. I would bet that it does, because them giving Bradley
be able to no trade clause does imply some sort of an urgency. But
there's a chance that it doesn't convey. However, that doesn't mean that they
can't just trade a first round pick before twenty eight. Other people have framed
it is twenty and twenty nine. That is inaccurate. Humbly, I'm not
donkey on anyone here, but I do get a little bit annoyed when people
are on Twitter tell me I don't know what I'm talking about, and they're
just commenting with inaccuracies, they can structure a deal around conditional first round picks.
The Sixers just did it when they got James Harden, and so it
would be framed This way is the Wizards could say they will trade. Let's
use the Jazz as an example. They're two thousand and twenty five, pick
two, utah, if they're two thousand and twenty three pick to the Knicks
conveys. If it doesn't, instead of deferring because you're trying in theory to
maximize the number of picks you're giving out, you can just have that condition
expire it turns into a second round pick or nothing at all, and so
or just to set let's say protect a second round pick, and so then
you move on to the next one, which is two and twenty seven.
You would include in there. You also make that conditional upon your obligation of
New York conveying. And if it doesn't convey by two and twenty five and
they get it instead in two thousand and twenty six, it would expire,
turn into two seconds again, and then you can trade your twenty twenty nine
pick. In theory, yes, and I know that was convoluted and I'll
try and remember to put up on the screen or at least right in the
comments on YouTube, or wrap it up with this podcast what I think the
Wizard's actual best offer would be. But they can only guarantee sending out one
first round pick as of now in twenty twenty eight or two and twenty nine.
But if you're trading for Donovan Mitchell, if you're trading for another star,
is it it's a fair risk to take as the other team to say,
hey, they're going to convey that first round pick to the Knicks by
twenty twenty four at the latest, or we think that they're going to be
a playoff team after this trade, and so we believe that their twenty five
pick will be able to convey, and so are their twenty and twenty seven
pick. So let's take their two twenty nine pick if it's on the table,
and they can also include their twenty twenty eight swap. That is something
that they can guarantee at this moment, and so in theory, any offer
that the Wizards give can be framed thus lee a conditional twenty twenty five first,
a conditional twenty twenty seven first, they're twenty twenty nine first outright and
a twenty twenty eight first round swap outright. Those are things that you can
offer. And if you're a team like the Jazz, I do think you
probably need to be prepared to say, Okay, that twenty twenty five pick,
maybe it doesn't convey because you're only giving it one chance. You're betting
that the Wizards are going to be a playoff team next season, that they're
going to finish outside the lottery. That's a you know, that is a
gamble. But if you have Bradley Beale and you haven't obliterated your depth to
get let's say, Donovan Mitchell or another star, it's not an unreasonable gamble
to think that you could get all three first or at least wind up with
two and the swap. The question then becomes what else are the Wizards offering?
And so, just in this theoretical world of how I'm doing it,
I think that you can count on the Wizards structuring a package where yes,
the picks will be conditional, but you're going to get a swap guaranteed first
round pick, and then another at least one other first round pick. That's
how I'm looking at this is that minimum, because I would think that the
Wizards are going to finish, if not outside the lottery next year. Again,
if they're acquiring a star, then that the top twelve protective pick would
would convey in twenty twenty four, and so you're twenty seven and twenty nine
picks could have been trade would have would then convey what else are they going
to include? And they have a bunch of interesting players sess slash salary matching
fodder. You could go the route of what we're gonna need big money to
Let's say it's for Donovan Mitchell to match. Could we dangle Christaps Porzingis?
He has two years left on his deal. It's unclear whether KP at two
years and like seventy million ISSH dollars, is actually an asset. He's a
player option on that final season, so he could be a free agent next
summer. I would bet that he's not considered super desirable if you're a team
like the Jazz, or if there's another rebuilding team and for some reason enters
the may So you know, if it's Toronto deciding to get rid of Ogianna
Nobi for whatever reason and sort of divest, not yeah, divest Ganna Nobi
into I don't think they will. I'm just throwing out names out there.
Or if you're the Wizards and for some reason want John Collins, I don't
think KP's gonna hold you know, value to Atlanta. I think you go
the route of your step laddering your way via contracts, and it must include
For me, it would be twenty one year old Denny Avya, who I
already consider a very rock solid and underrated defender, just to cross a bunch
of positions. When you look at the positional spectrum he's able to switch on
to or just cover individually, it's a lot higher than you'd think. I
think there is really more to his offensive game to explore. I would like
to see him run more pick and rolls. I would like to see his
and I've mentioned this with other players, kind of the speed at which he
processes things in the half court accelerate a little bit more. But there's a
physicality to his drives and the way he can use his shoulders around the basket.
I do believe that his shooting numbers from the outside, especially off the
catch, are going to be better than we've seen thus far, and that
this is someone who I can see developing into a playmaking wing and I have
not ruled out like an all star fringe all star trajectory for him. And
to have him with two years left on his rookie skial rookie scale, it's
an asset. It's just float out an asset. Is it on the same
level as R. J. Barrett? No, Scottie Barnes. Absolutely not
to me, But that's an asset. You also have Johnny Davis, who
you just drafted. You have Daniel Gafford who is on a very going to
be on a very reasonable three year extension that doesn't even kick in until twenty
and twenty three, So he's owed one point nine million this coming season,
and then the salary doesn't escalate until two twenty three, two twenty four,
and he will never make more than fourteen point four million dollars on that three
year deal. He's not great for money matching purposes, But just to have
Gafford, Johnny Davis, and Denny Avdias as raw pieces in this deal that
means something. I think you can include Kissburg as well. His wing defense
was a little bit better than I expected last year. I'm curious to see
if he can sort of find his bearings as the shooter he profiled as.
That's just sort of another young flyer to include. There's still Ruey Hotchimura.
I'm not gonna lie. I still don't know what to make with Ruey Hotchimura.
The positional versatility on defense is sort of tantalizing, and maybe some of
the ISO stuff he's shown on offense as well. Is there a world the
reality in which he works really is a small ball five and can even be
used as like this situational screener. He might be worth plumbing. But he's
entering, you know, the final year of his deal before stritches free agency.
He's extension eligible. As I record this, I'm sure teams will be
interested in him. And he does make six point three million dollars, so
that helps you get to whatever money you need. I just don't think,
you know, he's gonna be viewed. Whereas RJ. Barrett excepian eligible before
he signed his extension with the Knicks, like he was considered more of an
asset there, even if he didn't think he was worth two or three first
round picks. It's not the same Ruy Hotchimore, who's just such an unknown
come on on the basketball court right now. But you do have him,
and I would throw him in the same vein as Corey Kisspert, not quite
afterthoughts. Just these oh that's you know, these quaint, unknowable assets right
now. And then you have Gafford Davis and Avdia, who I would think
are just more attractive. You can get higher money elsewhere as well. Will
Barton, who I believe can be aggregated soon enough, and so can Monte
Morris. Those are two players you could look into moving if you're confident in
having Delan right and especially if you're trading don Van Mitchell. You don't necessarily
need both those guards on the team. Kyle Kuzma is entering the final year
of his deal. He has a player option for twenty twenty three twenty twenty
four, he makes thirteen million. My point is it's very easy for the
Wizards to step ladder their way to superstar money. What does get tough is
that so many of these contracts, like you can view Will Barton not as
an albatroz because it's expiring, but you could be fine using him as salary
ballast. I think I think Will Barton's offensive upside is there. I know
he feels like the past two seasons he's also dealt with injuries. They've been
touching go. But I think if you're the Wizard, you can say,
yeah, viewing Will Barton as a salary anchor in prospective blockbuster trade talks,
that's what we're going to do, and that's fine. It gets harder a
lot harder to say the same for Monte Morris, for a Kyle Kuzma,
and even for a Ruey Hachimura, just as a six point three million dollar
player, because if you trade him on his own, he's probably not going
to net a first round pick. And so that's just sort of why I'm
viewing his salary as the primary utility. But if you're the Wizards, you're
not gonna want to move him just as this usable salary, I would hazard.
So gets harder to move those guys because they actually add value to the
deal. And if you're a team like Utah or a team that's suddenly rebuilding,
maybe you don't want age twenty seven Kyle Kuzma going into his contract here,
Maybe you don't have a need for Monte Morris, who could become a
free agent. Is a starting caliber guard, but can become a free agent
himself after next season. He nobody. He is two more years left on
his deal, So yeah, he's he's a bargain. But if you're the
Wizards, that's all of a bark. He's making less than the mid level
exception and he could should be your starting point card right now? Does a
team want him when he's not a youngster with all this upside? I believe
that he is. I always think that he's older than I think he is.
I'm glad I will jake this. He is also age twenty seven,
so both him and Kuzma or age twenty seven. He did just turn twenty
seven though, that is for for Monte Morris. Wow, excuse me.
That's where it gets difficult. But if you're a Jazz team, and again
I'm just using the jazzes framework here, if you're a Jazz team that is
only interested in picks, you could get would I would guess my belief is
right now. It would not be like a super high one that you could
get a first round pick for Kyle Kuzma. You could get a first round
pick for Monte Morris. I don't think you could get a first for Ruey
Hachimura. You're not going to get a first for Will Barton. Could you
get a first for Christops Peerzingis. I definitely don't think so, Probably not
even get a first for Daniel Gaffer. He's just more valuable as like keep
him just the money he's making. He gets started at center for you,
and he's young enough to where it's worth continuing to plumb. Johnny Davis like
just drafted. Denny Avdia could definitely get you first round pick on his own,
But I found Utah and using them as evil. I want Ava And
so if the deal, if the Wizard's all in deal, I'm not advocating
for the Wizards to do this for Donovan Mitchell, but they could in theory
go Will Barton. Let's say Monte Morris or Will Barton, Kyle Kuzma,
and then you include Denny Avdia, Johnny Davis, Daniel Gafford. Let's just
say those five players and then the picks that I outlined. Is that not
a viable like a real offer if you're Utah and you think that you're gonna
get at least two first from them, plus that swap, and you know
that a third team will take Kuzma. And let's say you're sending Kuzma to
a third team and getting a first round pick. I'm just viewing Kuzma as
the equivalent of a first round pick here. Not a high end first round
pick, but I'm viewing him as the equivalent of a first round pick here.
Maybe you're asking for more, but Avdia Davis three, two conditional first,
a swap, one actual first. Like this is this is a real
package, and I will put it up on the screen. I'll screenshot and
put it here and run it through one more time. But like there's an
offer, and this doesn't have to be the final details of it. Wilbarton
Kyle Kuzma or is Wilbarton Kyle Kuzma, and I would view Kuzma as like
a future first round pick. The Jazz can be rad him, or do
you find another team that would be interested in getting him and giving up a
first to do it? So Wilbarton, Kyle Kuzma, Danny Avdia, Johnny
Davis, Boom, you're at the money. Daniel Gafford's in there too.
That's your fifth player. You're including a conditional twenty twenty five first round pick,
a conditional twenty twenty seven first round pick, a two twenty eight swap,
and then a twenty twenty nine first round pick, and so in theory
like you could be giving up three first that would be unprotected, plus a
swap, plus all of this other stuff. Where Danny Avdia is a real
prospect, Johnny Davis is a real complimentary prospect, Daniel gafferd is someone who
can actually play. Maybe Utah's not high on him for the future, and
you do run into roster spot issues, but to me, that's a real
offer, and there can be other moving parts like Hatchamura and Corey Kissberg involved
there too. It's it's it does feel like more of a hodgepodge, and
you have to be okay not getting a first round pick until two twenty five
at the absolute earliest. Again, could you trade Kuzma somewhere that he's going
to net you though a first round pick that's imminent a two twenty three or
twenty and twenty four first round pick. I mean, is there something to
be worked out with Miami there? They desperately could use someone like him to
play their four spot. If you're the Wizards, maybe you're not okay giving
them up. Because this is the second part of the question, should the
Wizards be chasing a blockbuster deal? My answer is just yes, flat out
you should chase it because you resigned Bradley Beal to the Supermax, gave him
the no trade clause. If you're serious about winning, he's age, this
is going to be his age twenty nine season. There's no like, Okay,
let's see what we have a special one. You have to start thinking
about, well, how much is Kuzma gonna cost next year? And you
essentially made that decision with KCP that you didn't want to pay his next deal.
So there's an urgency. It's it's not even implicit, it's it's conspicuous
like it's there. It's it's it's material. So I think you are obligated
to do it. Is Donovan Mitchell that player, No, I don't for
them just because you have Bradley Beal already. I'm not gonna like the defense
from him and Bill even if you believe Mitchell is going to defend at a
higher level, and if you do have both of them, to me,
you would need to figure out a way to keep Kuzma as part of this
deal. If there's another star that comes on the market, yes, Kevin
Durant obviously, but they definitely don't have the horses to get into that race.
I would also note that some people have pointed out that they could get
the Knicks to unbottle the protections on that twenty twenty three First, I wouldn't
necessarily rule it out if it's involves the Wizards getting a different player, but
if it's the Wizards going after Donovan Mitchell, the Knicks are absolutely not gonna
do that. It would just be bonkers for them to even try. So
went not bonkers for the Wizards to try, but I would be shocked if
the Knicks even considered doing that. I don't know if don Van Mitchell's that
guy, though, I do think that the Wizard's offer is more interesting than
people are crediting. I don't think it beats the Knicks. I don't even
think it rivals the Knicks. I want to make that clear. I'm just
talking about blockbuster trades in a vacuum, and there might be other avenues for
them to explore improving their team. Things happen all the time in this league,
where a player we don't expect becomes available. Even though we thought don
Van Mitchell eventually wanted to get out of Utah, that was basically no knowledge.
The expectation wasn't necessarily was going to happen this summer, and if it
was, a lot of people thoughts were going to be because he requested it,
not that the Jazz were sort of the driving force behind this. We
didn't think Kevin Durant was going to deliver a trade demand and then rescindent.
Unexpected shit availability happens all the time in this league. And I won't sit
here and try and pinpoint. Okay, well who's next? Like the things
go sour Hortland, like a year from now and it's Dame and you held
onto your assets and you're the Wizards. Does that even make sense Dame and
beal? No, But my point being, like you have these assets,
you can go into the season with them. I'm not telling them to make
the deal now. But if the Knicks are actually pulling out of this and
the Jazz actually want to move Donovan Mitchell, I don't necessarily view that as
settling. If you're Utah and you believe you're going to get at least two
of those first distant first from the Wizards. And here's what's also interesting about
this is when you're trading Mitchell to the Knicks, you're doing so knowing that
he's going to stay long term. That in theory, should bring down the
value of their future first round picks. Now because of the Knicks track record,
where you know they've actually drafted quite well, especially on they're not your
primo first round picks. So it's not that you don't trust them to like
make the right picks if they keep them. It's that you just don't trust
them to be in the the right spot long term. If you're an outside
team, maybe fans do. That's fine. I think this regime has earned
a lot of trust. There's still parts that I'm not completely sold on.
I think that's fine to say Knicks fans seem to get mad. Some Knicks
fan seemed to get mad at me when I'm just not, like, this
team's gonna win sixty four games as is, and they're they're perfect that type
of bs. But if you're an outside team, you're betting on the Knicks
continuing down this historical path of sub mediocrity. And so that's why those picks
are attractive. But if we're talking about the Wizards, and let's use Dondra
Mitchell get as the example. Do we know Donfred Mitchell wants to be in
Utah Washington long term? This is not Miami or New York. And so
the fact that he could leave when he becomes a free agent, if not
before, then should they decide to trade him. But the fact that it
would hover over him potentially leaving in twenty twenty five free agency and knowing that
two that you could have two first and a swap owe to you that are
going to post date, that there's there's appeal there that I don't think we're
considering. I would want to short Washington's future with Donovan Mitchell more than I
would Toronto's future with Donovan Mitchell. Maybe i'd want to short Charlotte's future.
The Hornets are kind of in a similar boat. By the way, I
didn't I don't think I'm gonna do a one question on them, just because
I don't think they're non draft pick assets are intriguing. And what makes this
a possibility to me for Washington is that I viewed Denny Avdya as that fringe
blue chip type of prospect, and they have other interesting to serviceable youngsters already
on the team, coupled with salary matching players that are actually more valuable than
just for their salary. And so my verdict here is I don't think the
Wizards can trade for Donovan Mitchell. If the Knicks are all in on Donovan
Mitchell, if they actually have a hard line in the sand, if they're
serious about pulling out, if Utah's not willing to wait, I don't expect
anything I just said to come to fruition. But if all those things work
out, I do think Washington, independent of the Knicks, has a viable
offer, and outside of the Donovan Mitchell sweepstakes, I think they can be
reasonably in the hunt, depending on which teams are also going to be involved.
Could Memphis come over the top for a star that's not Donovan Mitchell,
Yes, their team that could do it, Ditto for New Orleans, ditto
for the Magic. But are those teams operating on the timeline where they're going
to go in for a star we see Memphis really trust their development. The
Pelicans I think need to see at least for a half season what they have
in the Zion CJ Brandon ingram Core with Herb Jones and Trey Murphy and Dison
Daniels if he's healthy, and Jonas Valanciunis, Larrynett Junior, there's just Josie
Alvarado, a ton of depth there. What does Kyra Lewis Junior do this
season if he's healthy? And maybe this is just you know, the Wizards
using some of these assets or the allure of them to make medium size moves.
I just feel like they have the ability to put together a package that
affords them the opportunity to make a bigger swing if it becomes available. So
I wouldn't rule out the Wizards being aggressive in blockbuster talks and then also being
able to do something that profiles is more than hitting a double. I'll tell
about They're not going to trade for Boyon Pagdanovich is like they're crowning Mover or
Harrison Barnes like it feels to me. My belief is that the assets they
have available and the mechanisms through which they can get there, they would be
able to pull off a move that is splashier than something on that level.
Do you agree? Do you disagree, let me know. Please remember to
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always you do with the shout out to really the player that the Wizards should
be ready to mortgage their future for the one the only worth everything the Wizards
have, and then some Frank Hilikina