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You know, even in strong bull
markets in the precious metals, it's always

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two steps forward, one step back. You know, you get this rush

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of speculator money, which is you
know, kind of came rushing in at

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the end of November and gold gallowy
up what it closed the month for the

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first time over two thousand on spot
gold a month of November and then the

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next day at rally know the thirty
bucks. You were listening to Carrie Letz's

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00:00:22,519 --> 00:00:28,039
Financial Survival Network where you get valuable
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gift. Financial Survival Network now more
than ever. And welcome you are listening

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00:00:50,119 --> 00:00:53,960
to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerrie Lot's say,

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we're at December eighteenth. Powell has
pivoted, so it certainly would appear

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has happiness, peace and prosperity been
restored to the homeland and what does it

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mean for you? Our good friend
from TF Netlesreport dot com, Craig MK

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is with us. Got a question
for Craig or myself. Shoot me an

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email kl at Cherry Lutz dot com. Craig, great to have you back.

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So the moment we were all waiting
for, right right, what has

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been a long year. I've already
been thinking about what will I call my

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macro cast that I write in January
as we look ahead. And the initial

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working title, though not a word
has been written yet, is something like

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better early than never or something.
Because this is I was expecting this type

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of conversation by about June or July. I didn't think there's you know,

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after our experience in late twenty eighteen
when the ten year note got to three

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and a quarter and Quindy dried up
and all that jazz, I figured we

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couldn't make it much passed you or
July before the FED was talking about pivoting

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and everything regardless of whatever inflation was
doing, because they got to keep the

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plate spitting. I think what I
missed was this massive reverse repo thing.

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And you know that the two point
two trillion dollars or whatever it peaked out

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at that was kind of quarantined under
the title of excess reserves at the FED,

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and that has now drawn down to
like what like seven hundred and fifty

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billion and on pace to run out
by some time in the first quarter.

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And I think that's what I missed, because that allowed the FED to kind

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of play along with this higher for
longer stuff for about six months, longer

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than I thought. And so as
we begin twenty four, I think again,

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I better early than never, or
however you want to phrase that.

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I think we're finally going to get
the end of the argument. You know,

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where one side people say, oh, no, Fed, oh how

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credibility, you know, higher for
longer, And on the other side there's

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people like yours, truly like he's
full of because they've they've done the same

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crap for fifteen years, ever since
they started QE in twenty nineteen or twenty

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nine, and they'll do it again. And so we're finally going to get

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that answer, I think pretty quick. So funny thing is that at the

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same time he had to do it, I think because the banks are collapsing,

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and in the end he serves at
the pleasure of the banks, purportedly

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the pleasure the president, but really
when the banks lose faith in the head

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of the FED, which happens on
occasion, like with Volker, they get

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rid of them, and they're willing
servants among our public servants. Just go

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ahead with it, right that that's
an important point to Kerry. Next year's

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presidential election year, and we've been
talking about that all year long too,

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that the yeah, you know,
Focahontas and Bernie Sanders and you know,

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and their ilk are going to start
piling on if you know, the economy

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really is weakening in the first quarter, and you know, and unemployment is

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back over four percent, you know, all that kind of stuff, which

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is what the FED themselves is projecting. You're going to get a lot of

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political pressure for the FED to start
cutting rates to just anything, you know,

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give the stock market to keep going
up, you know, and that

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kind of thing. So you're right, I mean, this is the independent

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FED, and that's another leg of
a stool for next year. You know.

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I once remember reading an article in
Barrens this thirty forty years ago,

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and Alan Ablson said, the FED
is doing what it does best, getting

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a president reelected, you know,
and nothing's changed, although I don't know.

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Sometimes things are so far gone that
even the FED, with the magic

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of the money pump, can't can't
save things. For the incumbent. We've

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seen that, yeah, number of
times, say so, question is all

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right? So the banks were still
borrowing, banks were more, banks were

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getting ready to collapse. Obviously that
had to have figured into the calculus.

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Jamie Diamond said, you know,
we don't want any more acquisitions, forced

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acquisitions, and so what choice did
he have really? And the interesting thing

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was it looked like gold had kind
of hit an intermediate peak. And then

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the day the day he issued that
statement, man back over two thousand.

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We ever going to see some two
thousand again? Well probably, you know

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in the EBB and flow of how
the pricing scheme works. You know,

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even in strong bull markets and the
precious metals, it's always two steps forward,

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one step back. You know,
you get this rush of speculator money,

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which is you know, kind of
came rushing in at the end of

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November and gold gallowy up would it
closed the month for the first time over

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two thousand on spot gold a month
November, and then the next day at

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rally another thirty bucks. Then we
go out at all time aaly high,

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all time weekly high, just set
an all time monthly eye. Every single

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derivative short you know, futures contract
naked short is now underwater. When the

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market signed off on December the first, Oh, cherry lo, what holy

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cow? You mean there was a
big thing then that when the market's reopened

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on Sunday the third, No,
you don't say. Banks are just buying

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time and they wash out those speculators
that came rushing in. We saw it

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on the Commitment of Tradity report last
week, and so they get washed out

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and then market kind of resets.
Then you take another two steps forward,

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and then they'll get washed out again. One of these times we will substantially

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break and hold out of this trading
range we've been in for three years,

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and then we'll get another big rush
and that ought to take us up some

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point in the first half of the
year next year to twenty three hundred or

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so. I would think that's where
I thought we'd get in the back half

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of this year. So sticking with
that theme being about six months too early,

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I think we'll get there reasonably soon. Just a matter of time here.

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And yeah, yeah, it's you
know, like you said, they

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got to keep the plates spinning,
and this is the way they do it.

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But you know, things have changed
around the world greatly since the tightening

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and all that, since they started
ratcheting uprates, China is really on the

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break of collapse, if they haven't
collapsed already, which you could have an

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argument about. It's kind of like
when the economic cycles guys say, oh

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yeah, that's right, we were
actually in a recession for the past year.

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Well, without a even some semblance
of a free flow of information,

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it appears that China's collapse is well
underway if it hasn't already happened, and

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other countries' issues happening. What is
your take on where we're headed here?

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Because it doesn't look like it's going
to be the Chinese century this year.

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That's great, twenty two thousand to
twenty one hundred, right, it is.

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You know that the old saw I
think maybe used to say about Japan.

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You know, they sneeze and we
get a cold or you know,

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however that used to go, that
will be a drag, right, that's

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going to factor in nextion. You
could say that could maybe adversely impact commodities

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in general, but that implies that
there's actual some fundamental driver to all these

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commodity prices that are derived through the
trading and futures contracts. It's like,

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heck, Carrie, even even the
now crude oil has been completely taken over

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by those CTA trading funds, you
know, where it's like seventy percent of

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the daily volume of trading crudel,
which is a hand down the biggest commodity

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market, like two point two trillion
dollars worth of year, Even that now

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is done. So when remember like
the whole things started in the Middle East

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and back in early October and crude
oil went up from like eighty up to

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ninety and then boom just starts sinking
like a stalon and everyone like, well,

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this doesn't make much sense. Yeah, So anyway, have that all

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relating all this back to China commodity
prices that I guess remains to be seen,

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but I do I do think again, when push comes to shove,

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if the choice is between hey,
we got to look credible on this inflation

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fight, or we have to fund
the you know, multi trillion dollar deficits,

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we got to pay the interest on
the national debt, we got to

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take care of any banks that might
be failing, that's the way the Fed's

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going to go. And I think
it's to me it's almost folly that people

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sit there and think, oh,
no, no, no, no,

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Powell's going to keep rates at five
and a half percent. Yeah. So

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the other thing is getting back preadmal
question what happened last week and did Powell

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actually pivot and all that stuff,
And predictably this always happens to Carrie,

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especially in the last year year and
a half, when it's all hinged upon

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this pivot pause stuff, Powell comes
out, they have their what I call

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the FED lines, the statement after
the FOMC meeting. Then Powell starts flapping

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his guns, you know, a
half hour later in his press conference,

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and almost every single time Gold goes
straight up because you've got to read between

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the lines that's coming now at the
conclusion of what's called a quiet period,

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where in the week to ten days
leading up that FOMC meeting, now of

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those goons Fed governors speak, they'll
go quiet, right, it's wonderful,

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correct, it's great. Okay.
So anyway, as soon as the FMC

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is done, you got Thursday,
all suddenly Friday, man, every goon's

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looking for a microphone. They want
to get on CNBC or Bloomberg or whatever.

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And usually what they do is they
if the market they think overreacts to

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what Powell does. They just come
out and openly contradict him. And that's

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what happened last Friday. Hey,
right away at eight o'clock hour on CNBC,

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here comes Goon Williams. You know, Oh, we didn't even talk

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talk about ray cuts. Wait a
second, hold on, I can look

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at the dot plot on your document. You did damn straight you talked about

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ray cuts because you're throwing three of
them for netwear? Is the consensus just

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hid? But that's what they do
though, right, I mean, nothing

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new about that. That's in the
politicians and financiers lying who whatever think that

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would happen, right exactly. So
what the Fed did then last week is

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on the quarter March, June,
September and December, they put out what's

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called a Summary of Economic Projections,
which is nothing more than like you and

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me and a handful of your other
guests all writing down. Our guests are

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our guesses, right, I mean, they don't know any more than you

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and I do. Even Powell himself
admits that. But anyway, they write

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them all down, all seventeen of
them, bru in June, at the

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June and conclusive of June meeting.
They were collectively guessing or projecting four rate

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cuts in twenty four and five,
and twenty five's a Fed themselves, we'll

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be back to zero. Well,
getting close. So then in September you

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get a little couple upticks, you
know, of the manipulated data, and

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all of a sudden, they're only
projecting two rate cuts in twenty four and

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five in twenty five, and ever
go crazy and the dollar rallies, you

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know, and all this kind of
stuff. Well, now here we are

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in December. We're finally right before
twenty four, and they went back up

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to three projected rate cuts and four
in twenty twenty five. So they took

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one off at twenty twenty five and
slid it forward. You know why they

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did that, who knows, But
it's again, they themselves are obviously discussing

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rate cuts because they went from projecting
two to now projecting three. And that's

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you know, whether they do three, four or five whatever. Again,

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the FED themselves is telling you this
is what they expect. And so this

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notion that the FED is you know, higher for longer and not going to

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high, I just I'm kind of
swimming against the tide on them. Yeah.

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Well, you know, I always
had a theory about how they predicted

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the weather, and I think it's
the same thing. Right, ten guys

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around the table and they say,
how many of you think it's going to

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rain today? And three guys raise
their head. You got a thirty percent

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chancewer early on. Right. Well, that's how it's done well. And

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that's I use that exact metaphor none
of it. Yeah, that's a metaphor.

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Okay, thank you. It's not
an idiom or anything like that.

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So I use that last week in
an interview because and I think it's accurate,

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because they're eventually predicting chaos. Right. You can't just say there's this,

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this, and this that affect the
economy and it's three variables. It's

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00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:43,240
like three thousand variables. Yeah,
and when one moves and affects the other.

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I mean Powell himself has admitted.
And you go back and they get

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all the transitory crap. There was
few in two years ago. Yeah,

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00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,799
you remember that the Saint Summary of
Economic Projections I was talking about in twenty

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twenty one. Yeah, we're expecting
no rate ikes and maybe just like fifty

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00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,480
basis points of rate hikes by twenty
twenty three, what'd we get five hundred?

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00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:09,519
Yeah, So they don't know,
they're just guessing. Yeah, And

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it's like the weatherman. The weatherman, you know, tries to put out

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a forecast. This is your seven
day forecast from Acuweather Channel forty one.

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They don't know what's going to happen
in seven days. But if they get

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00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,360
it right, they go, oh, look how smart we are. But

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the climate's changing and you know,
at the end of the century, we're

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all cooked right that. You know, they're very sure of themselves. But

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tried predicting the weather three days ahead, that not so much right exactly.

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And that's and it's the same thing
again. Weather is a complex, chaotic

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00:14:43,919 --> 00:14:48,440
system too, right, and yet
you know, maybe you can predict it

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twenty four hours out to some degree
of you know, with all the models

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00:14:50,799 --> 00:14:54,799
they have now. But it's the
same thing when when the weather guy gets

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00:14:54,799 --> 00:14:58,759
it right during the newscast, I'll
say, hey, we've been shown most

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00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:01,960
accurate for three years. When they
get it wrong, they'll look at you

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and go, well, you know, there's the leather crickets man, mid

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gigg you know, that's that's just
the way it is. So we look

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at you know, you know what's
coming back to life lately. I'm sure

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you noticed it. Copper. Yeah, yeah, it's very again. We're

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bucks, which is resistance for sure, Yes, but it's probably going to

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blow through it in the coming year, certainly if gold is going up.

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Yes, you know, that's something
I wrote about last year in the first

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week of January for this year's forecast, because there were all these forecasts in

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January of last year, even from
like Goldman Zachs saying that above ground copper

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was going to be extinct by maybe
August or September, and I think,

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whoa, Apparently that hasn't happened yet. However, you're right about price.

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It's been moving up rather steadily.
And if the dollar continues downward next year,

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as I suspect it will, yeah, you get above four dollars and

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four to forty, and all of
a sudden you're back of the old all

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time eyes of four to eighty.
And then you know, you kind of

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get a feeding frenzy on top of
that, and that'll help silver, you

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know, And any other thing I
would add for anybody wondering about silver,

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I do. I felt strongly did
we get there this year? I thought

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we'd get to twenty three hundred because
I was six months ahead of myself.

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I guess when we break out above
twenty one hundred and gold and you get

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about a ten percent rally on top
of that, and we get to about

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twenty three hundred, at some point
the first half of next year, will

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the gold silver ratio be one hundred
and silver still be at twenty three?

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Probably not so. Yeah. So
if I'm right about the twenty three hundred

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part, then you can kind of
pick your own gold silver ratio and kind

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of back go, you know,
back reverse engineer price from there. Yeah,

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I think. Well, look,
gold is trading added near its record

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high. Silver's trading fifty percent under, right, So which one's going to

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eventually take off? You know,
it'll it'll start with gold and then it'll

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go to silver, right, I
mean, and that's all usually works.

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Yes, I mean, it's again
the idea of and let's say, you

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know, gold is annualized nine point
three percent since the beginning of this century.

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He always cherry pick dates. You
know, it's annualized forty percent or

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whatever since you know, the March
of twenty twenty, you know, you

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know, yeah, let's just pick
one and just say, okay, from

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the beginning of the century, it's
annualized about nine per point three percent dollar

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terms. This year it's up so
far eleven something like that. So we're

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just clipping along. So even if
we just do that next year, we're

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talking, you know, twenty two
hundred and change. And so at some

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point, as much as it's been
a challenge to get silver above twenty six,

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they'll get above twenty six, and
then we'll go above twenty eight.

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And like as with gold, all
of a sudden, when it becomes a

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clear recognized breakout of this trading range
that it's been in for three years,

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then you get this Russia speculator money, and all of a sudden you'll have

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it, you know, three handle
and yep, we have seen it before,

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right, yeah, yeah, that's
right. And then you know,

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and I hear I just keep spouting
all this historical stuff. But this is

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kind of like how we ended twenty
ten as well. Now we got two

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weeks to go. But I remember
the very I was only in the second

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month of running. This website had
started in November of twenty ten, and

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I can go back. It was
on a Google blog spot, so all

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those old posts from thirteen years ago
were still on all there and at the

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end the very last post I wrote
in twenty ten, so I wrote about

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us it was a superfecta because gold
closed I don't know if it was New

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Year's Eve or the thirtieth or whatever, the last trading day of the year.

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It closed at the daily high,
weekly eye, quarterly high, an

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annual high on all four of those
charts. And you know what happened in

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twenty eleven and from there, I
mean, at a pretty decent rally into

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September, we got a shot at
that the singer superfecta if we can rally

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over these next couple of weeks.
So that would certainly seem to set us

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up rather positively. I would like
to see this, It would be it

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would be some vindication, but just
that the whole world hasn't totally gone crazy.

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Right, that's too late for that
year. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

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yeah. I could not agree with
you more. Hey, So all

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right, so what's what's new on
TF Metals Report. Well, it's been

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00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:41,640
a great year. The site I
think is extremely valuable and I couldn't to

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00:19:41,759 --> 00:19:42,799
the users of it, I guess, is what I'm saying. And not

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00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:48,200
just you know, not for what
I do for the community aspect, you

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00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:52,119
know, I mean, anybody listening
to us, no doubt, remember is

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twenty twenty and what it is.
I mean, that was a crazy year

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00:19:56,000 --> 00:20:03,559
between COVID and the riots and lakshit, oh crap. Well, I can

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00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,720
only imagine what twenty twenty four is
going to be like. And so again,

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00:20:07,759 --> 00:20:11,720
I think we're a lot of the
value of Ta Metal's report is just

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00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:15,799
the community of people where you can
kind of interact and people like you and

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00:20:15,839 --> 00:20:18,440
I said, there going oh god
care, Yeah, you know that right,

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00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:23,759
absolutely, there's a whole community people
like carry and I kind of see

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00:20:23,759 --> 00:20:26,920
each other through. So it's going
to be evolved year. I mean,

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00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,839
you need independent voices kind of giving
you the news and telling you where the

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00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,920
markets are headed. So we can
do that. It's also I think a

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00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:40,359
really important time to be connected,
maybe not with your physical neighbors across the

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00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,599
fence, but with yeah, people
around the world that can help you out.

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00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:48,079
That's that's what my site does,
all right, and we're big fans

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00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,359
of it for sure. Lake Is
in the show notes this interview on Financial

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00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,480
Survival Network dot com. Question for
myself or Craig or anything else kl at

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00:20:56,519 --> 00:21:00,839
Carrie LUTs dot com. That's the
approved email address, and while you're at

289
00:21:00,839 --> 00:21:04,960
the site, please sign up for
your free newsletter at Craig Always a pleasure.

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00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,279
Thanks for stopping by, and we'll
touch base with you a couple months

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00:21:10,279 --> 00:21:12,720
and see how this is all unwinded. Happy Rama on a Quansmas, my

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00:21:12,799 --> 00:21:17,599
friend. Oh, thanks, I've
been celebrating all of them everything we go

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00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,480
and I possibly can't. You never
got it. I didn't offend anybody by

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00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,519
saying that either. Yeah, I
got I'm certainly not offended. So if

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00:21:25,559 --> 00:21:29,160
I'm not offended, you're probably okay. It's probably okay. Well, Happy

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00:21:29,279 --> 00:21:32,400
rama on a Quansmas and we'll see
you in twenty four, my friend,

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00:21:32,799 --> 00:21:37,960
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying

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00:21:38,079 --> 00:21:44,799
times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival

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00:21:44,839 --> 00:21:47,440
Network now more than ever