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New Eastern Europe podcasts. The events
in Belarus leading to the presidential elections in

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summer twenty twenty, and in a
particular, the wave of protest that broke

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out after the second round of the
vote on August nine, twenty twenty,

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are irreversibly changing the country. According
to Pyotr Rutkowski, director of the Bela

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Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, of
the electriction, irreversible changes began to take

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place much earlier, long before the
presidential election. The philosophical and cultural attitudes,

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as well as a sense of values
among Belarussians have changed significantly over the

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past ten years. Belarussians are much
less paternalistic, that is, when the

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state is to defend them. They
believe in their own strength, more when

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it comes to attitudes towards free competition, when it comes to wage inequality,

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when it comes to the belief that
their fate is in their own hands.

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The percentage of Belarussians who think they
should take their fate into their own hands

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and who count less on the state
has increased significantly. This is due to

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a global shift of values. The
comparison of the sixth and seventh Waves,

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the sixth wave was at the beginning
of the tenth anniversary, and the seventh

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wave was at the end of that
tenth anniversary. They show that profoundly serious

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changes have taken place. These protests, these events that took place in the

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context of the presidential election, on
the one hand the externalization of changes whilst

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show values in the sphere of ideological
bearings, and on the other hand seal

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these changes. So here is a
retreat to say the first decade, I

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am fully convinced of it. So
this process of democratic transformation is taking place

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seriously. This does not mean that
this authoritarianism is about to collapse and there

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will be democracy. It will be
rather a longer process. It will probably

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take years. But this process is
real, it is going on and it

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will carry on. According to the
Barussian political scientist, Also Alexander Lukashenko has

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lost his legitimacy and his power is
nearing its And the moment ordn Novice Lukashenka

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saw himself as president for life until
the very last moment. The situation has

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changed completely. Now he has to
find himself in this new situation. Obviously,

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Lukashenka's legitimacy simply shattered it can be
called an electoral revolution, that is,

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the electoral revolution that led him to
power in nineteen ninety four, because

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there was also an electoral revolution he
won against the national movement and the bureaucratic

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movement. He was such a national
politician, a politician for common people.

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The middle class overthrew his legitimacy,
that is, his support. There were

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electoral revolutions but against him, and
in these conditions he will not able to

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be and in these conditions he will
not be able to rule until the end

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of his life, and it is
not known if he will survive until the

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end of his term of office,
which ends in five years. Of course,

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in this situation he has to devise
some mechanism that will formerly allow him

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to change the form of political government, but will actually help him stay in

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power. So we can compare it
in the sense with the transformation mechanism at

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Kazakhstan when Sultan Nazarbaye quit but in
fact remained in power. But here it

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is exceedingly difficult to compare this situation. Lukashenka does not have such a possibility.

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In this situation, it will be
quite difficult for him to develop a

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mechanism that will be positively perceived by
the majority of society. The only thing

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left is the introduction of martial law
or a state of emergency that will allow

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him to survive for some time,
but it will still be survival through the

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use of bayonets oh. Even though
the regime's days seemed numbered, it does

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not necessarily signify and immediately lend.
Without a certain departure from power Lukashenko,

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the ruling class will not be able
to resolve this crisis. But at that

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moment when Lukashenka leaves power, if
he does so, the system will collapse

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immediately. Keeping him in power deepens
the political crisis. His removal from power

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results in the fact that this political
system will fall apart. They will rather

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choose to hold on to the end
because of the situation is still uncertain.

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There is still Russia that can support
somehow with Lukashenka's departure. They will of

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course, much depends on the way
in which President Alexander Lukashenka will leave,

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and according to Edward Lucas, a
former British media correspondent in Central and Eastern

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Europe, Russia will play a key
role here if he simply disappeared, If

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he jumped on into a helicopter and
disappear, peered off to go and live

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in Russia or Transista or somewhere.
Then there would be there would be a

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power vacum, but that's very unlikely. I think that the Kremlin will be

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looking around for potential assessors and see
if there's someone in or near his inner

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circle who could take over and be
a less toxic alternative. What they want

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is to have someone who can will
not be the hate figure that Lukashenka has,

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become someone who can announce inquiries into
police brutality and you know, constitutional

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conventions and all the sort of superficial
appearance of a represhemore with the opposition,

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but underneath will preserve the important economic
and military and security arrangements at the Kremlincies

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as part of their vital, vital
national interests. Edward look US warrants against

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excessive fassivity of the West, which
may allow Russia to resolve the crisis in

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Belarus. Clearly, Lithuania is playing
a very important role, and the emotional

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and psychological impact in Lithuania has been
huge, and we've seen Lithuanians turning out

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in large numbers to demonstrate for the
Blo Russians as tremendous of solidarity. This

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spirit of eighteen sixty three is alive
and well. Polish response has been rather

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more muted, and I think that's
a pity. I think Poland could have

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done more. The country is even
further away have done even less. I

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also think it's notable Ukraine has not
not being particularly active on this front.

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But we need international engagement and to
see if there's any deals that can be

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broken, but also to see to
make it clear to the Kremlin that they

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should keep their hands out. We
don't want the Kremlin sending its goons to

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back up Lukashenka's goons. We don't
want the Kremlin providing surveillance technology to help

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persecute the demonstrators. In the end, we don't really want Belarus to be

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how it's destiny determined in Russia.
Belarush to determine its own destiny. The

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other question is about the narrative,
and I think it's not quite enough for

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the opposition simply to be saying democracy
good, Lukashenka bad. I think there's

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a question of what kind of country
they want Beilous to be, and they

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can flesh this out a bit by
talking about the deep historical roots of biel

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Rous, not just eighteen sixty three, which I mentioned, but going back

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to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and
also this brief attempt at statehood in nineteen

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eighteen. So I think trying to
get away from this idea that bill Ros

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is basically a new country created out
of the Soviet Union in nineteen ninety one

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would add some residents to their message
and accelerate the process of nation building,

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which I think is fundamentally behind this
upsurgeon opposition activity. Alexander milin Kiev,

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a former opposition candidate for the President
of bi russ warnts against simple comparisons with

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other countries. He does not know
when democracy will win in his country,

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but he does not lose hope.
Actually, Belarussian mass protests are hardly worth

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comparing, as is often the case
today with my Dan Kiev. There are

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many differences because in Ukraine there was
soft authoritarianism and in Mint for years a

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hard line personal autocracy. In Kiev
there has always been opposition in parliament,

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there have been independent television channels.
In Belarus, no opposition MPs, no

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non state television channels. The ruling
elite worked in Kiev. They saw that

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this was important for the revolution.
The influential oligarchs helped. There are simply

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no oligarchs in BELARUSI except for one
whose name we know well. The Belarusian

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revolution resembles the events in Poland in
the nineteen eighties and in the Baltic States

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at the end of the reconstruction,
when in these countries they were fighting communism.

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In Poland martial law was introduced in
nineteen eighty one. There is a

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bloody re action from the dictatorship in
Belarus, but both Poles then and Belarussians

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today I am sure will never come
back to that past. When they win,

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we do not know. We believe
they will soon, the e US

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head of Diploma said Joseph Borel said
in the European Parliament that only social dialogue

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and the new elections could enter the
ongoing crisis. He also noted that Alexander

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Lukashanko did not react to the arguments
of the West in this difficult period.

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To the Belarussian people, we continue
our full support for the democratic right to

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elect their president through new, free
and fair elections under OC observation, only

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an inclussive national dialogue with the broader
society, in particular with the Coordination Council,

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can lead to a peaceful, unsustainable
solution of the rasis. We continue

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to support the proposal for an OC
mission to facilitate this dialogue, and we

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are promoting such an approach with all
international actors. But they have to say

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that, to my regret, the
Belarusian authorities are not responsive at all human

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be A Russian sociologist, Alena Garva, has no doubt that the time of

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Alexander Lukashenka's regime has run out.
However, no one can predict when it

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will end. This is why,
in her opinion, it is so important

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to continue the protests. Oh yeah, yam, to praise the duty.

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In my opinion, if we're talking
about the end of the regime, it

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will be just as unexpected. It
will take place unexpectedly, just as the

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post election protests begin suddenly. It's
difficult to predict when in our situation,

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every even seemingly insignificant factor may have
an unexpected impact on how the situation develops.

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Nor I think the unceasing protest is
the guarantee that the situation will change,

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although it's not very apparent in the
agony of all this, the constant

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and continual protests that we've been observing
since August will hasten the regime's end.

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The journalist Hannah Lubakova emphasizes that the
continuation of the protests will not be easy,

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especially in the face of the coming
winter. Winter will come and perhaps

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not everyone will want to go out
on the street because it'll be cold and

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it'll be hard to walk, and
besides, this police brutality still exists,

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and the police brutality is not lighting
up, so it's also kind of tiring

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people. Anyone who goes out already
knows they can end up in jail,

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and recently two hundred and thirty people
have been marked as suspects in a criminal

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case. This is like some dark
political mysteries, some sort of humanitarian catastrophe,

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kind of legal catastrophe in Belarus,
not to mention the fact that since

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the election Uber sixteen thousand people have
been arrested. So if all this gets

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to people and maybe they get tired
out, they'll wonder what to do next.

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Since we can't protest freely in the
street, people have started to be

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highly active locally in their small communities. These are the foundations for local governments.

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None of their demands the sort of
thing people are fighting for, have

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the authorities agreed to. I don't
see people just heading home and deciding to

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never be politically active again. Lukashenka
is no longer accepted on a rational level.

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People simply will not agree with it. And even if there won't be

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any more mass protests now, whether
through the winter or this period of people's

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fatigue or through fear through progression,
there will be a new wave. And

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I don't think he'll stay in power
for long. And so another factor,

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another factor worth remembering is the economic
crisis. This will also be thought more.

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It will also be another reason for
dissatisfaction. But it's also worth affections

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those going to the protests. Yes, and you're the one to protest.

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Russian diplomat and a member of the
Opposition Coordination Council helps that external pressure will

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force the authorities to talk. He
believes that the end of the regime is

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not far off. First of all, we are facing a significant economic crisis.

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We are facing the next steps.
I hope both the European Union and

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the United States will decide on the
introduction of various types of sanctions against the

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regime in Belirus. It will have
some pressure on the authorities. I am

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also sure that we should force a
dialogue because there really is no intention on

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the part of the authorities to enter
into a normal dialogue and a normal solution

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to this situation. It means that
we will force a dialogue and our postulates

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are known and Immova. Unfortunately,
the government has shown the opposite position so

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many times. It is acting against
the nation. It is doing so deliberately.

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The question arises, what are the
prospects of this authority are none?

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There simply are no prospects because the
nation is changing. It is about the

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date when it will take place.
It could be tomorrow, or it could

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be in a few months. It
certainly will not take lunch. The poet

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and Dikadanovitch translated into being a Russian
the song more Walls, which is one

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of the hymns of the ongoing protests. He says what their continuation means for

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him. He believes that the regime
can literally collapse at any time. It

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is no longer a fight as some
kind of heroism or some such short bright,

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wonderful deeds. It is a struggle
of nerves and perseverance. It is

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some kind of marathon that you have
to endure. Sometimes consider it as a

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daily routine. For example, it
is important for me not to refuse anyone

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to come and go out to play
this concert of every invitation. Sometimes ask

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people by the internet. So fine
time and strength every day. Trust.

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On the flip side, I expect
people are also tired, and these arm

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on men maybe they still feel confident. So we need a little place of

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all. All of this can change
to some sort of positive developments at any

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time. Snushtrone, the Fristcomoe Rosvichev
strone, post even of Scardon, Scarden,

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