New Eastern Europe podcasts. The events in Belarus leading to the presidential elections in
summer twenty twenty, and in a particular, the wave of protest that broke
out after the second round of the vote on August nine, twenty twenty,
are irreversibly changing the country. According to Pyotr Rutkowski, director of the Bela
Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, of the electriction, irreversible changes began to take
place much earlier, long before the presidential election. The philosophical and cultural attitudes,
as well as a sense of values among Belarussians have changed significantly over the
past ten years. Belarussians are much less paternalistic, that is, when the
state is to defend them. They believe in their own strength, more when
it comes to attitudes towards free competition, when it comes to wage inequality,
when it comes to the belief that their fate is in their own hands.
The percentage of Belarussians who think they should take their fate into their own hands
and who count less on the state has increased significantly. This is due to
a global shift of values. The comparison of the sixth and seventh Waves,
the sixth wave was at the beginning of the tenth anniversary, and the seventh
wave was at the end of that tenth anniversary. They show that profoundly serious
changes have taken place. These protests, these events that took place in the
context of the presidential election, on the one hand the externalization of changes whilst
show values in the sphere of ideological bearings, and on the other hand seal
these changes. So here is a retreat to say the first decade, I
am fully convinced of it. So this process of democratic transformation is taking place
seriously. This does not mean that this authoritarianism is about to collapse and there
will be democracy. It will be rather a longer process. It will probably
take years. But this process is real, it is going on and it
will carry on. According to the Barussian political scientist, Also Alexander Lukashenko has
lost his legitimacy and his power is nearing its And the moment ordn Novice Lukashenka
saw himself as president for life until the very last moment. The situation has
changed completely. Now he has to find himself in this new situation. Obviously,
Lukashenka's legitimacy simply shattered it can be called an electoral revolution, that is,
the electoral revolution that led him to power in nineteen ninety four, because
there was also an electoral revolution he won against the national movement and the bureaucratic
movement. He was such a national politician, a politician for common people.
The middle class overthrew his legitimacy, that is, his support. There were
electoral revolutions but against him, and in these conditions he will not able to
be and in these conditions he will not be able to rule until the end
of his life, and it is not known if he will survive until the
end of his term of office, which ends in five years. Of course,
in this situation he has to devise some mechanism that will formerly allow him
to change the form of political government, but will actually help him stay in
power. So we can compare it in the sense with the transformation mechanism at
Kazakhstan when Sultan Nazarbaye quit but in fact remained in power. But here it
is exceedingly difficult to compare this situation. Lukashenka does not have such a possibility.
In this situation, it will be quite difficult for him to develop a
mechanism that will be positively perceived by the majority of society. The only thing
left is the introduction of martial law or a state of emergency that will allow
him to survive for some time, but it will still be survival through the
use of bayonets oh. Even though the regime's days seemed numbered, it does
not necessarily signify and immediately lend. Without a certain departure from power Lukashenko,
the ruling class will not be able to resolve this crisis. But at that
moment when Lukashenka leaves power, if he does so, the system will collapse
immediately. Keeping him in power deepens the political crisis. His removal from power
results in the fact that this political system will fall apart. They will rather
choose to hold on to the end because of the situation is still uncertain.
There is still Russia that can support somehow with Lukashenka's departure. They will of
course, much depends on the way in which President Alexander Lukashenka will leave,
and according to Edward Lucas, a former British media correspondent in Central and Eastern
Europe, Russia will play a key role here if he simply disappeared, If
he jumped on into a helicopter and disappear, peered off to go and live
in Russia or Transista or somewhere. Then there would be there would be a
power vacum, but that's very unlikely. I think that the Kremlin will be
looking around for potential assessors and see if there's someone in or near his inner
circle who could take over and be a less toxic alternative. What they want
is to have someone who can will not be the hate figure that Lukashenka has,
become someone who can announce inquiries into police brutality and you know, constitutional
conventions and all the sort of superficial appearance of a represhemore with the opposition,
but underneath will preserve the important economic and military and security arrangements at the Kremlincies
as part of their vital, vital national interests. Edward look US warrants against
excessive fassivity of the West, which may allow Russia to resolve the crisis in
Belarus. Clearly, Lithuania is playing a very important role, and the emotional
and psychological impact in Lithuania has been huge, and we've seen Lithuanians turning out
in large numbers to demonstrate for the Blo Russians as tremendous of solidarity. This
spirit of eighteen sixty three is alive and well. Polish response has been rather
more muted, and I think that's a pity. I think Poland could have
done more. The country is even further away have done even less. I
also think it's notable Ukraine has not not being particularly active on this front.
But we need international engagement and to see if there's any deals that can be
broken, but also to see to make it clear to the Kremlin that they
should keep their hands out. We don't want the Kremlin sending its goons to
back up Lukashenka's goons. We don't want the Kremlin providing surveillance technology to help
persecute the demonstrators. In the end, we don't really want Belarus to be
how it's destiny determined in Russia. Belarush to determine its own destiny. The
other question is about the narrative, and I think it's not quite enough for
the opposition simply to be saying democracy good, Lukashenka bad. I think there's
a question of what kind of country they want Beilous to be, and they
can flesh this out a bit by talking about the deep historical roots of biel
Rous, not just eighteen sixty three, which I mentioned, but going back
to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and also this brief attempt at statehood in nineteen
eighteen. So I think trying to get away from this idea that bill Ros
is basically a new country created out of the Soviet Union in nineteen ninety one
would add some residents to their message and accelerate the process of nation building,
which I think is fundamentally behind this upsurgeon opposition activity. Alexander milin Kiev,
a former opposition candidate for the President of bi russ warnts against simple comparisons with
other countries. He does not know when democracy will win in his country,
but he does not lose hope. Actually, Belarussian mass protests are hardly worth
comparing, as is often the case today with my Dan Kiev. There are
many differences because in Ukraine there was soft authoritarianism and in Mint for years a
hard line personal autocracy. In Kiev there has always been opposition in parliament,
there have been independent television channels. In Belarus, no opposition MPs, no
non state television channels. The ruling elite worked in Kiev. They saw that
this was important for the revolution. The influential oligarchs helped. There are simply
no oligarchs in BELARUSI except for one whose name we know well. The Belarusian
revolution resembles the events in Poland in the nineteen eighties and in the Baltic States
at the end of the reconstruction, when in these countries they were fighting communism.
In Poland martial law was introduced in nineteen eighty one. There is a
bloody re action from the dictatorship in Belarus, but both Poles then and Belarussians
today I am sure will never come back to that past. When they win,
we do not know. We believe they will soon, the e US
head of Diploma said Joseph Borel said in the European Parliament that only social dialogue
and the new elections could enter the ongoing crisis. He also noted that Alexander
Lukashanko did not react to the arguments of the West in this difficult period.
To the Belarussian people, we continue our full support for the democratic right to
elect their president through new, free and fair elections under OC observation, only
an inclussive national dialogue with the broader society, in particular with the Coordination Council,
can lead to a peaceful, unsustainable solution of the rasis. We continue
to support the proposal for an OC mission to facilitate this dialogue, and we
are promoting such an approach with all international actors. But they have to say
that, to my regret, the Belarusian authorities are not responsive at all human
be A Russian sociologist, Alena Garva, has no doubt that the time of
Alexander Lukashenka's regime has run out. However, no one can predict when it
will end. This is why, in her opinion, it is so important
to continue the protests. Oh yeah, yam, to praise the duty.
In my opinion, if we're talking about the end of the regime, it
will be just as unexpected. It will take place unexpectedly, just as the
post election protests begin suddenly. It's difficult to predict when in our situation,
every even seemingly insignificant factor may have an unexpected impact on how the situation develops.
Nor I think the unceasing protest is the guarantee that the situation will change,
although it's not very apparent in the agony of all this, the constant
and continual protests that we've been observing since August will hasten the regime's end.
The journalist Hannah Lubakova emphasizes that the continuation of the protests will not be easy,
especially in the face of the coming winter. Winter will come and perhaps
not everyone will want to go out on the street because it'll be cold and
it'll be hard to walk, and besides, this police brutality still exists,
and the police brutality is not lighting up, so it's also kind of tiring
people. Anyone who goes out already knows they can end up in jail,
and recently two hundred and thirty people have been marked as suspects in a criminal
case. This is like some dark political mysteries, some sort of humanitarian catastrophe,
kind of legal catastrophe in Belarus, not to mention the fact that since
the election Uber sixteen thousand people have been arrested. So if all this gets
to people and maybe they get tired out, they'll wonder what to do next.
Since we can't protest freely in the street, people have started to be
highly active locally in their small communities. These are the foundations for local governments.
None of their demands the sort of thing people are fighting for, have
the authorities agreed to. I don't see people just heading home and deciding to
never be politically active again. Lukashenka is no longer accepted on a rational level.
People simply will not agree with it. And even if there won't be
any more mass protests now, whether through the winter or this period of people's
fatigue or through fear through progression, there will be a new wave. And
I don't think he'll stay in power for long. And so another factor,
another factor worth remembering is the economic crisis. This will also be thought more.
It will also be another reason for dissatisfaction. But it's also worth affections
those going to the protests. Yes, and you're the one to protest.
Russian diplomat and a member of the Opposition Coordination Council helps that external pressure will
force the authorities to talk. He believes that the end of the regime is
not far off. First of all, we are facing a significant economic crisis.
We are facing the next steps. I hope both the European Union and
the United States will decide on the introduction of various types of sanctions against the
regime in Belirus. It will have some pressure on the authorities. I am
also sure that we should force a dialogue because there really is no intention on
the part of the authorities to enter into a normal dialogue and a normal solution
to this situation. It means that we will force a dialogue and our postulates
are known and Immova. Unfortunately, the government has shown the opposite position so
many times. It is acting against the nation. It is doing so deliberately.
The question arises, what are the prospects of this authority are none?
There simply are no prospects because the nation is changing. It is about the
date when it will take place. It could be tomorrow, or it could
be in a few months. It certainly will not take lunch. The poet
and Dikadanovitch translated into being a Russian the song more Walls, which is one
of the hymns of the ongoing protests. He says what their continuation means for
him. He believes that the regime can literally collapse at any time. It
is no longer a fight as some kind of heroism or some such short bright,
wonderful deeds. It is a struggle of nerves and perseverance. It is
some kind of marathon that you have to endure. Sometimes consider it as a
daily routine. For example, it is important for me not to refuse anyone
to come and go out to play this concert of every invitation. Sometimes ask
people by the internet. So fine time and strength every day. Trust.
On the flip side, I expect people are also tired, and these arm
on men maybe they still feel confident. So we need a little place of
all. All of this can change to some sort of positive developments at any
time. Snushtrone, the Fristcomoe Rosvichev strone, post even of Scardon, Scarden,
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