1 00:00:14,279 --> 00:00:19,239 Hey everybody, and welcome to Life is a Gamble. This is episode number 2 00:00:19,359 --> 00:00:25,719 ten and my guest today is Ed Miller. And Ed Miller was a frequent 3 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:31,000 guest on Gambling with an Edge, mainly back then writing about poker, but 4 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:38,320 he has shifted over interrolled and has a new book out called Interception that he 5 00:00:38,399 --> 00:00:43,320 wrote with Matt david Ow, who also was his co author The Logic of 6 00:00:43,359 --> 00:00:48,200 Sports Betting, which sort of a must read by anybody getting involved in sports 7 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,880 betting. So Ed, welcome to thank you, Thank you very much for 8 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:56,920 having me. Richard Cool. So yeah, I want to talk about the 9 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,200 new book, Interception, But before we get into that, can we talk 10 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:07,159 about your shift from poker and how that came about? Sure? Yeah, 11 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,959 so, I I mean I was, I was. I started my kind 12 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:19,400 of gambling journey definitely in poker. I started with the flashing online poker, 13 00:01:19,439 --> 00:01:25,079 Paradise Poker, Come come play, living hold of stuff you know from I 14 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,799 don't know, twenty years ago now over twenty years and yeah, and so 15 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,359 I moved. I ended up moving to Vegas just to play poker for a 16 00:01:33,359 --> 00:01:36,560 living. I did that for a while. I got burnt out on playing 17 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:41,359 poker all the time, So that's how I got into writing. And then 18 00:01:42,239 --> 00:01:48,879 yeah, and then in like twenty fifteen, so I was basically mostly poker 19 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,920 for my gambling stuff for the first I don't know, ten plus years. 20 00:01:53,719 --> 00:01:57,680 But like right after the UI e GA got passed, which was that federal 21 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,560 law that kind of made the right, there was a specific carve out for 22 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:06,319 fantasy sports. I don't know if people know the history of this, but 23 00:02:06,359 --> 00:02:09,000 that and almost immediately, I want to say, like within the year, 24 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:15,879 someone launched something the first daily fantasy site called like Fantasy Sports Live or something, 25 00:02:16,319 --> 00:02:20,080 and I, uh, I took a look at it, and I 26 00:02:20,199 --> 00:02:24,039 was like, this is this is really clever, like especially legally, you 27 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:30,240 know, but you know, my kind of critique of it was, this 28 00:02:30,319 --> 00:02:36,280 is not a very good gambling game because you know, the skill gap whatever 29 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,520 you want to call it, is too great. Like it's just if you're 30 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:44,159 smart, they like, the casual player is just gonna get destroyed at This 31 00:02:44,319 --> 00:02:46,960 was my was my take. I was like, I was like, this 32 00:02:46,039 --> 00:02:51,000 is this is that I love this game, but you know, anyone who 33 00:02:51,319 --> 00:02:55,960 doesn't like play games for a living is gonna just get crished. So I 34 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,280 was like, I don't really think this is going anywhere, and then like 35 00:03:00,039 --> 00:03:06,759 half a billion dollars of VC investment later, you know, I mean that 36 00:03:06,879 --> 00:03:09,800 was my take. My take was Fandel and DraftKings for creations of the investment, 37 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,560 you know, vehicle right, Like, I don't ever really, I 38 00:03:14,759 --> 00:03:17,439 don't think my take was wrong. I think my take was right that their 39 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,719 the skill gap is kind of too big for those daily fantasy games, but 40 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:28,520 it just that effect got overwhelmed by the enormous investment. You know that those 41 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,319 companies. I'm kind of amazed they're still going on. I mean, I 42 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,520 haven't looked at them in a while because we can't get them here in Nevada, 43 00:03:35,759 --> 00:03:40,919 right, So did they lower the rake or something? How the daily 44 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,439 fantasy And I'm not an expert on this, I don't want to, like 45 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,560 if I say something that's slightly wrong, I mean, I I'll hear about 46 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:53,560 it. Probably whatever you know, maya kulpa in advance. But to my 47 00:03:53,680 --> 00:04:00,919 knowledge, the daily Fantasy parts of those businesses are basically stagnant, and it's 48 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,520 it's essentially, you know, there's not much growth there and they offer it 49 00:04:03,599 --> 00:04:06,280 and you know, people play it, but it's a you know, on 50 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,680 its own it's not much of a business in a sports book. Yeah, 51 00:04:10,719 --> 00:04:14,879 that would that makes sense much in the way that like racetracks just want to 52 00:04:14,879 --> 00:04:19,279 have casinos now the horse racing is dying. But I don't think that was 53 00:04:19,319 --> 00:04:23,240 the original idea. I think the original idea was that the daily Fantasy game 54 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,519 would have legs and growth, you know. And and my take was, 55 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:31,319 no, this is not a game that's self sustainable for several reasons. But 56 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:36,439 anyway, I kind of threw in the towel on that take, like I 57 00:04:36,519 --> 00:04:40,800 kind of clung to that take a little too long. Really, I mean 58 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,519 I was I was too stubborn with that take. This is a bad game. 59 00:04:44,639 --> 00:04:46,439 This is gonna you know. Meanwhile, I watched, you know, 60 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,199 all the investment money pour in, and I was like, well, I'm 61 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:54,959 being dumb here. I should just go win the money. Yeah, I 62 00:04:55,079 --> 00:04:58,879 was like, why am I? Why am I stubbornly clinging to this take 63 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:00,240 that this is a bad game. Why don't I just win the money? 64 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,680 So, you know, once I had that thought, that's what I did, 65 00:05:03,759 --> 00:05:09,360 basically, So I did. So I ramped up a little. I 66 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:16,000 basically built a little kind of software suite to today they would call them optimizers. 67 00:05:16,079 --> 00:05:18,439 Right, There are optimizers now that are available on the web, and 68 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:25,600 I kind of built my own optimizer before the optimizers, the public optimizers were 69 00:05:25,639 --> 00:05:30,560 thing, and you know, created a bunch of daily fantasy lineups every day, 70 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,759 and you know that. So that was my entry to the sports stuff. 71 00:05:34,319 --> 00:05:39,560 Was that with me saying, stop being dumb and just go win the 72 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:44,800 money? Yeah? So yeah, and that's how I got started. So 73 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:51,879 so now you came up with this crazy idea to develop in game models and 74 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,639 sell them to the sports books, right right, So that wasn't my So 75 00:05:57,079 --> 00:06:00,319 what happened was Matt, who's my co author and partner in all of this. 76 00:06:01,879 --> 00:06:06,040 So I met Matt originally like twenty years ago playing poker in Vegas, 77 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:10,079 right, So but then you know, I just would see him around town 78 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,920 here and there. But but I didn't really talk gambling much of him. 79 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,279 And then we both got recruited to consult on a fantasy sports project independently, 80 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,519 and we kind of traded notes a little bit and we realized we were both 81 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:26,480 had exactly the same idea as far as winning the daily fantasy money, except 82 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,079 I went about it with I built my eyes showed him my optimizer stuff that 83 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,360 I built. And then you know, he was kind of doing things by 84 00:06:33,399 --> 00:06:38,000 hand. He had a different method, but it was our strategy for like, 85 00:06:38,079 --> 00:06:42,839 the game strategy was very similar, right that we'd come to independent and 86 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,000 so yeah, and I think I think he was like, hey, you 87 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:53,720 know, I liked the software skills that. So yeah, so he was 88 00:06:53,759 --> 00:06:55,920 like, well, why don't we work together? And then that was his 89 00:06:56,319 --> 00:07:00,319 I mean, he his project that he wanted to work on was built the 90 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,639 next generation of in game models, so starting with football. So that was 91 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,759 how we started with that. So he was like, hey, let's build 92 00:07:05,759 --> 00:07:11,160 an in game model for football, And I said, are you sure. 93 00:07:11,199 --> 00:07:15,000 He's like, trust me, and then yeah, so that's how that started. 94 00:07:15,839 --> 00:07:18,360 And yeah, we built it, and it, you know, I 95 00:07:18,399 --> 00:07:23,279 thought was remarkably good. I was very surprised by how well it came out. 96 00:07:23,759 --> 00:07:26,000 And yeah, and then we just kind of started doing that for all 97 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:30,399 the major American sports, and by twenty eighteen we had more or less a 98 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:35,399 entire suite of in game models. Yeah, it just seems an enormous undertaking 99 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:40,079 to try to do them for all the major sports. I mean, football 100 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:47,240 is the hardest one. Football is very tricky because the scoring is weird and 101 00:07:48,759 --> 00:07:53,399 has to do with the way the drives work and the way all the strategy 102 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,000 changes in reaction to the weird scoring at the ends of games, and you 103 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,319 know, all that stuff like are they going to go for it on fourth 104 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,639 down? Are they going to a field goal? Are they going to go 105 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:03,680 for two? Or are they going to All that weird stuff that happens makes 106 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,720 football very tricky, and and just the play calling changes, right, the 107 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:13,000 play calling changes fairly dramatically in the fourth quarters, and you know, just 108 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:18,160 to try to get all that strategic weirdness kind of correct in a model is 109 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,480 and then and then and then. NFL is different from college, right. 110 00:08:22,519 --> 00:08:26,839 In college they play substantially different in many of those situations. The whole offense 111 00:08:26,879 --> 00:08:31,319 has worked differently in college. I mean, it's it's it's so football is 112 00:08:31,319 --> 00:08:33,879 the hardest, for sure. I mean basketball is is. Our basketball model 113 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:39,080 is markedly simpler. I was, okay, well, so this really uh 114 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,120 kind of leads us directly into the new book Interception. Uh. I want 115 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:48,919 to say, for the listeners who haven't read the first book, the Logic 116 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:56,480 of sports betting really sort of was a basic premmer on how book makers work, 117 00:08:56,919 --> 00:09:03,559 how lines work, the difference a market maker and a retail book. 118 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:09,840 But the new book is more about I guess I would say more about how 119 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:18,360 the inner workings work and how to get away with being a professional better sort 120 00:09:18,399 --> 00:09:24,399 of some tips and tricks, and the two things really stuck out to me 121 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:31,440 about this book. Number one, it just seems like there is a lot 122 00:09:31,639 --> 00:09:37,360 of incompetence in this business, like a lot of crazy things going on in 123 00:09:37,399 --> 00:09:43,679 these multi billion dollar companies. For example, you give an example of how 124 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:50,240 the people in charge of football. There are a bunch of these guys in 125 00:09:50,279 --> 00:09:54,320 the UK where they don't have college football, so they were just using their 126 00:09:54,759 --> 00:10:00,440 pro football model on college and this kind of thing, right, Okay, 127 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,440 well so all kind of So so the way I would say it is, 128 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,080 I would say the logic of sports betting. It's kind of about how sports 129 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:09,919 betting markets work. So it's kind of an introduction to this is how the 130 00:10:09,919 --> 00:10:13,840 sports betting market works. And you know, and if you see a you 131 00:10:13,879 --> 00:10:16,240 know, a lines minus you know, nine and a half line, and 132 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,879 you know, you think, like understanding who you're betting against when you're betting 133 00:10:20,919 --> 00:10:24,679 into that line on Sunday morning, you're not just betting. You know, 134 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,600 people had this idea, you're betting against Vinnie with a cigar who's got his 135 00:10:28,639 --> 00:10:33,120 power rings. No, no, no, you're not. You're betting into 136 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,639 a market of that is basically price discovered by some extremely smart people who do 137 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,919 this, you know, full time. So that was kind of the point 138 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,480 of logic of sports betting, was an introduction to that concept and how those 139 00:10:45,519 --> 00:10:48,960 markets work. So this book, yeah, this book is more about how 140 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:52,720 do the we call the modern sports books in the book, and we don't 141 00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:56,440 kind of name brand names, but you know, you can figure out, 142 00:10:56,159 --> 00:11:01,919 you know, roughly who we're talking about. And uh, they go far, 143 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:07,240 far beyond the markets. The betting options that have markets associated with them. 144 00:11:07,399 --> 00:11:11,399 You know, it's not just you know, lions minus nine and a 145 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:16,080 half. It's every single possible point spread from plus seventeen and a half to 146 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,559 minus twenty seven and a half they have you can bet on, right, 147 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,120 and they have a price for each one. And the key idea is that 148 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,639 you know, an in play markets, all the in play stuff and all 149 00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:31,320 the different props and all the different and single game parlays and I mean these 150 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:37,200 menus and and the way they get those is there's no market behind that. 151 00:11:37,279 --> 00:11:41,039 There isn't you know, a bunch of smart people that are banging those prices 152 00:11:41,039 --> 00:11:45,879 into place. Those prices are created by companies, you know, of which 153 00:11:45,919 --> 00:11:52,480 we founded one that use models to create those pricing. So so when you're 154 00:11:52,519 --> 00:11:58,240 betting into you know, lions minus nine and a half, you know, 155 00:11:58,279 --> 00:12:03,480 on Sunday morning your bet, you're basically saying to all the smartest sports football 156 00:12:03,519 --> 00:12:07,320 betters in the world, I think you're wrong. You know, if you 157 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:13,200 bet into even an in game market, you're just saying and Miller, I 158 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:18,480 think you're a clown. And that could entirely you know, and so so 159 00:12:18,519 --> 00:12:22,159 the book kind of starts there and makes that distinction. It says, understand 160 00:12:22,399 --> 00:12:24,799 what goes into the numbers you bet so you use the word in competence. 161 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,200 I would not use the word in competence. I think people are trying hard. 162 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:33,480 What I would say is I think they're over promising, right, I 163 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,240 think the sports betting industry is over promising the amount of product they can offer. 164 00:12:37,639 --> 00:12:43,120 Right. Product in the vernacular of this industry is just all the different 165 00:12:43,159 --> 00:12:46,559 betting options, right, so every time they want to add a new thing, 166 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,840 you can bet on someone has to make a price on that, right, 167 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:54,799 there has to you know, and that is with a cigar, and 168 00:12:56,039 --> 00:12:58,360 yeah, it is, it's I mean it's and I don't smoke scars much, 169 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,799 but you know, you were doing in game. But but if you're 170 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:07,480 betting you know somebody for this many passing yards, you know, that would 171 00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:11,039 be someone else with a ciguard. Yeah that's right, Yeah, yeah, 172 00:13:11,039 --> 00:13:13,080 exactly. Yeah. Well our company has some of those options too, and 173 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:18,399 we're expanding. Yeah exactly right. You're you're you're betting into somebody's uh what 174 00:13:20,159 --> 00:13:24,799 one company. It's usually one company I would say, maintaining some kind of 175 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,679 model or infrastructure and essentially their opinion is what you're betting into, which is 176 00:13:28,799 --> 00:13:33,159 very different from betting into a market. Is there a way to know which 177 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:39,720 how many providers are there? Oh? That's the other thing that struck me 178 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:45,360 was how this is all pieced together with spit and chewing gum, Like you 179 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:50,200 know, one person, one person you know, doing the the mainlines, 180 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:56,039 a different company doing the in game, and a different company handling all the 181 00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:01,440 customers. And is there a way to know which books are using which companies? 182 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,720 Is but you got to do research, you got it? You can 183 00:14:05,759 --> 00:14:15,320 ask on Twitter. So there's sort of a small industry niche on Twitter where 184 00:14:15,759 --> 00:14:18,679 you know, the people who know about this stuff sort of lurk and they'll 185 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,559 answer questions and you know, if you want to, and you can research 186 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,799 it. None of it's a secret. It's also generally not advertised, if 187 00:14:24,799 --> 00:14:30,440 that makes sense, right, Like it's you know, so these relationships are 188 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:35,639 all available if you ask around, you go to conferences, or you go 189 00:14:35,759 --> 00:14:39,639 on Twitter and you kind of ask, hey, who does the golf for 190 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:43,799 you know, so and so? Right, But you could ask that question 191 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:48,320 and there's an answer, there's such and such company. And it's funny because 192 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:52,399 sometimes the answer is, well, such and such company does the you know, 193 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,759 does the the front end, does the you know, Like, there's 194 00:14:54,759 --> 00:14:58,080 a there's a golf InPlay product, for instance, that I really am a 195 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,600 fan of, which is kind of why I'm calling it out, because this 196 00:15:01,679 --> 00:15:05,759 is trying to be positive and say you did a good job. So there's 197 00:15:05,759 --> 00:15:09,879 a golf product and in play product, you know, and there's like a 198 00:15:09,879 --> 00:15:13,080 little picture of the golf course, right, and you can like click on 199 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,120 any golfer and it kind of shows you where on the course they are and 200 00:15:16,519 --> 00:15:20,720 you can bet on them, you know, in play during the tournament. 201 00:15:20,799 --> 00:15:24,159 And I think it's a pretty slick product. But even that, it's like 202 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:28,320 a collaboration effort between one company that is like in charge of the raw data, 203 00:15:28,559 --> 00:15:33,000 like all the shot data in real time, a different company that's in 204 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,279 charge of the pricing the shot data. Right, this is my understanding of 205 00:15:37,279 --> 00:15:41,039 how this product works. And maybe some of these again, I don't want 206 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,720 to get somebody saying and you're wrong. Well, okay, maybe I'm wrong, 207 00:15:43,679 --> 00:15:46,120 you know. And then maybe I think there might even be a third 208 00:15:46,159 --> 00:15:52,799 company that's in charge of the graphics, the web graphs, right. I 209 00:15:52,799 --> 00:15:54,480 think it might be the data and the web graphics might be the same company, 210 00:15:54,519 --> 00:15:58,320 and then the pricing might be a different firm. Anyway, play is 211 00:15:58,399 --> 00:16:03,360 Yes, all this stuff is just really collaboration between distinct entities, you know. 212 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:08,480 And then that golf product is offered by a sports book, which is 213 00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:14,320 definitely a distinct entity from the entities that created the product. So yeah, 214 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:21,279 yep. So the other thing that struck me is like I I know very 215 00:16:21,279 --> 00:16:26,559 little about sports betting. I'm just starting to stick my toes in a little 216 00:16:26,639 --> 00:16:33,039 bit. I'm getting the impression that there are very very few originators, Like 217 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:38,679 I see a lot of talk by people who are making money with this top 218 00:16:38,799 --> 00:16:47,279 down or scalping or various things that do not require you know, building models. 219 00:16:47,919 --> 00:16:53,159 So is that impression correct that there are very You're definitely correct, Yeah, 220 00:16:53,240 --> 00:17:00,600 there are very few that there are very few people who are actually like 221 00:17:00,559 --> 00:17:07,640 betting into the market stuff like what I was saying, like Saturday morning college 222 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,359 football day, who are placing a ton of bets into that full on betting 223 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:17,240 market on the point spreads and the totals, and who are doing that for 224 00:17:17,279 --> 00:17:22,400 a profit. There's a very small, very small Yeah. Yeah, well 225 00:17:22,599 --> 00:17:32,200 but that is very encouraging. Then I would think for people can originate and 226 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:40,240 for sure that's you know, I mean, anyone who who can can engage 227 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:45,640 with the market at that level is has a tremendously valuable skill. I would 228 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:51,359 say. Yeah, But like any gambling game, there is finding the edge 229 00:17:51,599 --> 00:17:55,079 and then there is finding a way to actually make money with that edge, 230 00:17:55,519 --> 00:18:03,960 which are two very different skills. So it sounds like a place where good 231 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:08,720 partnerships can come about. It is, yeah, and and there's there's you 232 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:14,039 know, I mean, there there are market making sports books that kind of 233 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,640 special I like Circa for example, as an example here in Nevada. I 234 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:22,799 think they would consider themselves a market making sportsbook where where they they accept all 235 00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:26,920 betters, you know, and they're never gonna according to I mean, I 236 00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:30,559 can't, you know, promise how that another business that's not me is going 237 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:36,400 to behave in the future. But they're they're kind of value offering is that 238 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,920 that we will we will allow anyone to bet within our structure. You know, 239 00:18:41,039 --> 00:18:42,519 even if you're a known winner to us, even if you've won from 240 00:18:42,599 --> 00:18:47,359 us, You're welcome to bet with us, because why are you welcome? 241 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:52,960 Because our our view is that we take a sports betting as market making perspective 242 00:18:53,079 --> 00:18:59,400 and and we're going to just try to collect the kind of commission so to 243 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:04,200 speak, for making a market on this stuff. And uh, you know, 244 00:19:06,079 --> 00:19:10,880 and therefore, if you want, if you have an ability to kind 245 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:15,519 of beat the market prices, you can bet at Circa or bett at a 246 00:19:15,519 --> 00:19:21,759 few other places and definitely make you know, plenty of money. I would 247 00:19:21,799 --> 00:19:23,839 say, you know, there's there's a there, there is a ton of 248 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:29,039 upside there. I think there's you know, it's I but that is definitely 249 00:19:29,079 --> 00:19:30,880 the hardest thing to do at all. There's a reason a very small number 250 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,200 of people do this. It's it's very hard to generate. I mean that 251 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:37,519 you know, they're putting a four percent hold on these markets, right, 252 00:19:37,559 --> 00:19:42,599 so you have to overcome quite I mean that's a quite significant hold. You 253 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:47,240 basically have to say, I know better than everyone else in the world by 254 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:52,200 not only by a little bit, but by consistently by four percent basically. 255 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,240 Right. So, right, but if you pick, if you pick a 256 00:19:55,359 --> 00:20:00,279 less mature market, like you know, like golf is in your examples, 257 00:20:03,079 --> 00:20:06,200 but you could bet much less on that also, right, The amount you 258 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:10,720 could bet on it is is commensurate with the size of the market directly, 259 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,359 So I mean it's almost by definition that is, the definition of the size 260 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,279 of the market is how much money is, how much liquidity there is in 261 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,759 it, and therefore how much you could tell sure, yeah, yeah. 262 00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:26,720 So the other thing that I think people will find valuable in this book is 263 00:20:26,319 --> 00:20:33,960 you have some ideas about how to not get backed off or limited. And 264 00:20:33,519 --> 00:20:38,079 you know, one of the things that you talk about there is the closing 265 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,960 line value. In the fact that you always have closing line value, you're 266 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:47,839 going to get limited very quickly. But isn't that exactly what these top down 267 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,119 betters do? I mean, how do they know they get limited very quickly? 268 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,680 Okay, so they're just churning account after it. Yeah, that's what 269 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:59,119 they're doing. They're constantly trying to find people with they have Catholic families with 270 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:03,799 nine brothers and sis mean, I can't I can't say I know the details, 271 00:21:03,839 --> 00:21:07,799 but I think, yeah, so how do you? Okay, so 272 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,880 let's talk about some of these ways to not get limited. Right. So, 273 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:15,279 so the basic idea is, you know, so modern sports books again, 274 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:22,039 I'm drawing a distinction between them and market making one. And it's not 275 00:21:22,079 --> 00:21:23,200 a hard discision. I want to be clear. This is not a black 276 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,559 and white thing, right, you know, this is these are you know, 277 00:21:26,839 --> 00:21:32,359 two kind of ends of a spectrum. But modern sports book is defined 278 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:37,759 by its interest in offering zillions of betting options. That's how I define it. 279 00:21:37,079 --> 00:21:40,680 You know, that one where they want to offer you as many possible 280 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:45,640 things to bet on as possible. That's a modern sports well they you know, 281 00:21:45,759 --> 00:21:48,319 as we go through in the book, is impossible for them to price 282 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,359 all that stuff correctly. It's just you know, and that's that's the point 283 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,319 where I said, I don't think it's incompetence, it's just over promising. 284 00:21:53,559 --> 00:21:56,759 They're just they just want to offer more and more and more, and it's 285 00:21:56,839 --> 00:22:00,839 just gets to a point where you can't reasonably price it all well. Right, 286 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,279 so because you can't read them, we price it all well. Then 287 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,240 if if if they allowed winning better is to bet and winning better, it 288 00:22:11,279 --> 00:22:15,519 could just turn ten dollars into millions right through the through the you know, 289 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:21,400 power of compounding interest basically, right, like exponential curves go up. Right. 290 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:26,920 So yeah, so so they they they basically can't let you do that. 291 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:30,440 Like they are aware that they can't price everything correctly. They are also 292 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,160 want to offer all this stuff. They want people to be able. They 293 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,559 want they think it's fun. I think it's fun. I mean I get 294 00:22:36,599 --> 00:22:37,680 it. I get why they want to offer it. So they're like, 295 00:22:37,759 --> 00:22:41,599 well, we can't price it all correctly. We want to offer it, 296 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,839 and therefore the only option is we basically have to figure out who's trying to 297 00:22:45,839 --> 00:22:48,759 beat it and get rid of them. And so that's what they do. 298 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,519 So then the question is, well, how do they try to figure out 299 00:22:52,559 --> 00:22:57,599 who's feeding them? So most people are extremely obvious about it. It's that 300 00:22:57,759 --> 00:23:02,640 and you're probably familiar with this like most people who do. Like if I 301 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:07,640 walk through a casino in Vegas today, right, there's you know, you'll 302 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,119 see people on the I don't know how much you talk about this on your 303 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,799 show, but like, you know, there's the slots that you can kind 304 00:23:11,799 --> 00:23:18,480 of advantage play, right, and you just once you know what you're looking 305 00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:22,960 for, the people advantage playing the slots are beyond obvious, right, They're 306 00:23:22,039 --> 00:23:26,240 just they don't really try to hide the fact that they're doing it. You 307 00:23:26,279 --> 00:23:30,079 know, they'll vulture the things, they'll sit there in lear or they'll like 308 00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:34,319 or or the like. I just I could tell just by looking for two 309 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:41,440 seconds there that person is advantage playing that slot us right, Exactly, you 310 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,079 can see them before they even sit down at the table. Exactly. It's 311 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,319 just once you know what, once you're familiar, if you're not familiar with 312 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,440 it, you have no idea what's going on. It's like you know, 313 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:52,640 and then once you learn a little bit, you're like, oh, I 314 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,359 could see it everywhere, right, And it's exactly the same they get sports 315 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:02,359 Bank, like the people that are trying to win are so obvious most of 316 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,720 the time that it's just they could get picked off after a few bets, 317 00:24:06,759 --> 00:24:10,319 Like it's just you know, just and we talk about a little bit, 318 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,920 you know, you know, but but like I mean, just some of 319 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,079 the most obvious behaviors, people will bet the home runs after they happen. 320 00:24:18,559 --> 00:24:22,119 I mean, this is again this is from my experience as a you know, 321 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,240 a provider of in play betting. You know, there's the guy that 322 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,640 just sits there at the baseball game and jams in the bet the moment the 323 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,640 ball comes off the bat and then two seconds later we got the information that 324 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,000 there was a home run and he got his bet in well, congratulations, 325 00:24:37,319 --> 00:24:41,200 I think I know what you're doing, you know what I mean, Like 326 00:24:41,279 --> 00:24:47,279 it's it's just beyond obvious, right and I mean right, so and uh 327 00:24:47,519 --> 00:24:51,279 yeah, just a lot of the ways people try to win or just are 328 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:56,519 just not subtle and and so you know, it's just easy to pick those 329 00:24:56,559 --> 00:24:59,279 people off. So so what we talked about in the book is, well, 330 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,640 how how can you do it in a way that Now CLV, which 331 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,680 is closing line value, is kind of a mathematical tell that you're winning. 332 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:14,759 So CLV means like if you bet a pregame market. Let's say you bet, 333 00:25:14,799 --> 00:25:18,319 uh, you know, Let's say you bet a football game on Monday, 334 00:25:18,599 --> 00:25:22,880 right, like the beginning of the week, right, and then by 335 00:25:23,599 --> 00:25:26,559 Sunday, by the end of the week. You know, if you made 336 00:25:26,599 --> 00:25:30,119 a good bet, what will happen is the market will move in your favor. 337 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,920 That's almost the definition of you making a good bet on Monday is that 338 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:38,880 by Sunday the market agrees with your bet and the line has moved, and 339 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,480 the amount of the line move is measurable. It's just math, you can, 340 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,799 you know. So a sportsbook can say, hey, if you made 341 00:25:45,839 --> 00:25:48,759 a bet on Monday, and what was our line on Monday that you bet, 342 00:25:48,799 --> 00:25:52,519 and what was the line on Sunday when the game went off, And 343 00:25:52,599 --> 00:25:56,720 the difference between the two is an estimate of how good your bet was. 344 00:25:56,319 --> 00:26:02,240 Right, All sports books can run script on their customers. They can just 345 00:26:02,319 --> 00:26:04,000 run a script that says, you know, how good are all the bets 346 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:10,440 they make on Monday? And if they're good, guess what, they don't 347 00:26:10,519 --> 00:26:15,480 let you so, you know. So that's the problem with closing line value. 348 00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:18,279 So how do you avoid closing line Well, there's a lot of bets 349 00:26:18,319 --> 00:26:21,519 you can make on these menues that essentially don't have closing line value. In 350 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,720 play beats, for instance, there's no such thing as closing line value, 351 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:30,480 right they put the line The lines changes between every play, because the fundamental 352 00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:34,799 problem changes between every play. Every time there's a play, there's new information 353 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,759 and the problem changes, and therefore you can't compare Oh, he got you 354 00:26:38,799 --> 00:26:42,319 know, minus one thirty year and then they got sacked and now went to 355 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,599 play, you know, I mean it's like that's not a thing, right, 356 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,680 Like that's that's you know, So there's no easy way to calculate the 357 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,680 closing line value in the same way say for an InPlay beat, for a 358 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,640 single game parlay, for for a lot of this stuff, anything where there's 359 00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,839 not a market really, there's not really eat a concept of closing lineback. 360 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:07,119 So so yeah, like it, if your idea is I'm gonna win at 361 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:12,480 a modern sportsbook by you know, betting overnights or betting early and then letting 362 00:27:12,519 --> 00:27:18,039 the market confirm that I made a good bet, well you're being obvious. 363 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:23,839 So in in blackjack, people often have this idea of going into the casino 364 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:30,039 and just playing for an hour or two with no edge to just show them 365 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,559 like, look at me, I'm not a card counter. Right, So 366 00:27:34,799 --> 00:27:40,079 does this apply in sports books? Can you go in and you know, 367 00:27:41,039 --> 00:27:45,160 bet a bunch of parlays and bet like a donk? Hopefully you can find 368 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:52,880 bets that are not too bad in terms of how much money you're giving away. 369 00:27:53,079 --> 00:27:59,000 Will this buy you much time? Or as soon as you start pounding 370 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,920 them, they're going to so so in in my so we talk about this 371 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,920 in the book. You know, in my experience, the most optimal strategy 372 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,640 for the longevity. And this is true even this is true in all sports. 373 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,079 So the problem with sports betting is it's not just the books you're trying 374 00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:19,400 to hide the fact that you're waiting from. It's it's or rather, what 375 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,160 happens is, let's say let's let's rewind back in time, and let's say 376 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:29,039 it's twenty years ago, right, and you know where where all these modern 377 00:28:29,079 --> 00:28:32,680 sports books didn't really exist, and it was kind of all the betting market, 378 00:28:32,759 --> 00:28:34,720 and the markets were all smaller. Let's say you found an angle, 379 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,799 you found something that was not in the betting No one else in the betting 380 00:28:38,799 --> 00:28:42,839 market had figured out yet this was this wasn't is definitely a thing you can 381 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:48,559 do. You say, they're not accounting for wind in football. I mean, 382 00:28:48,599 --> 00:28:51,799 that's not a thing. But like, at some point, I'm sure 383 00:28:51,799 --> 00:28:53,920 it was a thing. Some point, nobody it hadn't occurred to anyone that 384 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,799 the wind matters, right, So, so you're the only person in the 385 00:28:57,839 --> 00:29:02,640 world that's figured out that the bad and so and this comes up in one 386 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,319 game in ten, right, nine games out of ten, the wind is 387 00:29:04,319 --> 00:29:08,000 not enough to matter. But one game in ten at match, and so 388 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,079 you want to bet that one game in ten to get your edge. Well, 389 00:29:12,119 --> 00:29:15,720 the problem is, so you bet your one game in ten. Well, 390 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:21,000 there's another person on this taking your bets. There's literally a human being 391 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:25,920 on the other side who's seeing your bet come in. And the moment anyone 392 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,720 starts to think you're winning, what they do is they say, how, 393 00:29:30,799 --> 00:29:34,240 what's your angle? Right? And they try to figure it out, many 394 00:29:34,279 --> 00:29:40,680 times selfishly because they want to go bet at themselves. Right. So this 395 00:29:40,799 --> 00:29:45,640 is naturally happens. This happens all throughout the sports betting ecosystem, is that 396 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,759 the people taking the bets try to figure out what the winning betters are doing. 397 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,839 This is constant. We kind of described this in the book, and 398 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:59,039 so you have to disguise what you're doing from them because the moment they figure 399 00:29:59,039 --> 00:30:00,440 it out, then they're gonna are betting it and they're not going to be 400 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,079 cautious about it, and then it's gonna get every bet everywhere, and then 401 00:30:03,079 --> 00:30:07,640 everyone will figure it out and your edge will be gone. So you have 402 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,039 to So it's kind of if you want longevity, even if you don't get 403 00:30:11,119 --> 00:30:15,640 kicked out, if you just want your angle to persist, you have to 404 00:30:15,599 --> 00:30:18,400 basically bet in a way that nobody can figure out what the heck you're doing. 405 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,720 And yes, what you just said is is I think the strongest way 406 00:30:22,759 --> 00:30:26,319 to do that is to create a lot of betting noise around what you're doing. 407 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,759 If you only bet one game in ten, they can say, well, 408 00:30:29,799 --> 00:30:34,279 what's the common thread. If you bet every game and one intent of 409 00:30:34,319 --> 00:30:38,680 the bets is really good and the other nine is roughly break even, I 410 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,000 mean, it becomes much much harder to figure out what the heck you're doing, 411 00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,400 and you're still winning at the same pace if you do that, like 412 00:30:45,519 --> 00:30:49,319 if you now that, but I've said a mouthful, because now you have 413 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:56,920 to find bets on every game that will break even you in the first book 414 00:30:56,039 --> 00:31:00,200 talked about the idea of a synthetic hold. Yep. And it seems to 415 00:31:00,279 --> 00:31:08,799 me pretty easy to find basically break even bets just by line shopping. I 416 00:31:08,839 --> 00:31:12,680 think it easy to get them. But the book you want it at is 417 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:18,880 the problem, right, right? But but yeah, for sure, yeah, 418 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,759 and that and that is kind of the method that that that's certainly where 419 00:31:21,759 --> 00:31:23,960 you start, right you start by line shopping trying to find Okay, my 420 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,559 hold is not four percent. Now, my hold's now one and a half 421 00:31:27,599 --> 00:31:32,359 percent. I've gotten it between these two you know, books that will taking 422 00:31:32,359 --> 00:31:34,240 my action. I've got the sin. We call it synthetic holde. And 423 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,559 the logic is I don't love that term, but that's what I went with, 424 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,960 you know. Okay, so now the hold is one and a half 425 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,400 percent, Well, what I have is still too much. If you've bet 426 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:45,640 a lot of one and a half, you're gonna lose, right, it's 427 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,279 craps is one and a half percent or whatever. Right, you're gonna lose. 428 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,000 You keep betting one and a half percent, so you gotta get it 429 00:31:52,039 --> 00:31:56,640 down further. So you really do have to have an anger. You have 430 00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:02,160 to have some ability to to kind of gain an edge even into the line 431 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:07,000 shops lines. But that's very doable. I mean it's it is doable. 432 00:32:07,759 --> 00:32:12,640 And if you can consistently do that, to me, that's the most valuable 433 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:16,200 sports medical because once you can lay the cover like that, once you can 434 00:32:16,359 --> 00:32:21,480 spa and and and and the people in practice that I know who have, 435 00:32:22,119 --> 00:32:27,240 like I a few examples, this is this is a common thread that they 436 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:35,720 spam better spam bet. Yes, yes, so this is this is this 437 00:32:35,839 --> 00:32:37,839 is definitely like the idea, oh I'm picking and choosing, I'm only betting 438 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:42,160 one game at ten. This is not how the most successful, most successful 439 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:47,519 people bet everything, and they and that's hard because you have to put everything 440 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:52,720 not lose on most right. So yeah, so well that most people are 441 00:32:52,799 --> 00:32:58,039 knits and and do not want to give up anything, and haye, very 442 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,000 right. But in other thing, like in the casino variance, is your 443 00:33:02,039 --> 00:33:06,960 friend, yes, you know, if you if you're willing to take big 444 00:33:07,039 --> 00:33:14,319 swings. They they're not used to advantage players who do that, right, 445 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:20,079 Yeah, exactly, So, I mean exactly all the same ideas apply here, 446 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,920 all of them. And and your example of the oh I'm going to 447 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,039 go in and play like a loser for an hour and then I'm going to 448 00:33:25,079 --> 00:33:28,920 play like a winner. Well, that doesn't work. I mean I assume 449 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,440 that doesn't work very well usually, and that wouldn't work here either. Like 450 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:38,359 if you open an account and you play two weeks of you know, parlays, 451 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:43,640 you know, moneyline parlays on random teams, and then you go bet 452 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:47,519 your angle for the next six months, I mean, you're not impressing anybody, 453 00:33:47,599 --> 00:33:52,880 Like, yeah, absolutely, it seems like your cover has to be 454 00:33:52,759 --> 00:33:59,559 in the same uh, in the in the same sport and the same kind 455 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,839 of bet that your edge bets are gonna be. Yep, you're hiding the 456 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,200 signal within the noise is what you're doing. Yeah, yeah, and that 457 00:34:06,599 --> 00:34:08,280 but that so that will work. I mean that's extreme. I mean think 458 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:12,760 about how hard that is to detect. How how is anybody going to figure 459 00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:14,559 out what the heck you're doing? You know, at the end of the 460 00:34:14,639 --> 00:34:16,360 day, you know these companies, I mean, you're familiar with how they 461 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,440 work. The end of the day, I have to have a big red 462 00:34:19,519 --> 00:34:22,639 number next to your name. At some point they're just gonna say, you 463 00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:25,199 know, to help it, Yeah, you know exactly. It's not gonna 464 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,880 happen at any moment. I mean, you catch someone on a bad day 465 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:30,320 and they could just say I'm done with this guy, and then you're done. 466 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:35,159 I mean, they can do that, and that's human nature and that's 467 00:34:35,199 --> 00:34:39,239 how but but yeah, like my experience is that. My experience also is 468 00:34:39,519 --> 00:34:44,000 you know a lot of people are curious, Like if they can't figure out 469 00:34:44,039 --> 00:34:47,000 what you're doing, they'll just they want to figure it out too. Like 470 00:34:47,039 --> 00:34:52,760 there's I've definitely heard this from people in the industry of people who I know 471 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:58,199 have basically used this strategy, like specific people talking about other specific people where 472 00:34:58,199 --> 00:35:01,880 they're like, I know, he I can't figure out how, and so 473 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:07,119 I just let them keep bet. Like I've literally heard that from people, 474 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:14,360 you know, and and yeah, so yeah, casinos are less likely to 475 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,280 do that. I think those too, I think I think, yeah, 476 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:21,559 I think the detriment, you know, I think if they did just take 477 00:35:21,639 --> 00:35:27,840 some time to watch, they would figure some stuff out. Right. Well, 478 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,239 my taking my whole our whole point for kind of why we started the 479 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:37,800 business was I think that their entire products will improve if they harden the menu, 480 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,639 right, Like, like a lot of these bets are extremely beatable. 481 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,280 It's it's like I was saying, you know, with the with the slots, 482 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,840 I mean, the beatable slots are everywhere now, the people beating them 483 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,400 are everywhere now. I mean, and I'm not saying the beautable thoughts are 484 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,559 bad for the casino because they need you know, obviously they win overall for 485 00:35:52,599 --> 00:35:58,639 the casino. But like, like the beatable bets are everywhere on a sports 486 00:35:58,639 --> 00:36:04,159 book, man, this is not subtle. Like there there's zillions of options 487 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,840 at any given point, a number of them are miss it's you know, 488 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:12,920 it's and And my point is like instead of like like, the product is 489 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,039 just so much better if you just tighten that up as best as you can, 490 00:36:15,559 --> 00:36:19,760 like especially on the bigger stuff like in play football, I mean, 491 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,519 why aren't you trying to do the absolute very best you can to price your 492 00:36:22,639 --> 00:36:25,960 in play NFL life, Like to me, that's obvious, Like this is 493 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:32,320 a core offering of the sports book, Like why aren't you heavily investing And 494 00:36:32,639 --> 00:36:37,440 to me, if you heavily invest in you know, the pricing of core 495 00:36:37,519 --> 00:36:43,599 offerings like that, like you can just offer much more. You can offer 496 00:36:43,679 --> 00:36:46,400 larger limits, you can offer no delays, you can offer you know, 497 00:36:47,519 --> 00:36:51,119 you know, I mean you end up like, there's this thing called the 498 00:36:51,159 --> 00:36:53,599 palpable error. Do you know about this? I mentioned it in the book. 499 00:36:53,599 --> 00:36:58,159 I don't know if you're how familiar, ye, but go ahead and 500 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,159 explain it first. So the way that works it so that there's kind of 501 00:37:02,199 --> 00:37:07,679 the sports book industry has this thing where they can they can after a bet 502 00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:13,960 is made and settled, they can say just kidding and then basically undo the 503 00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,039 bet or give you revised the odds they offered it. So, so a 504 00:37:16,079 --> 00:37:22,639 concrete example is, let's say you know you bet an in play I saw 505 00:37:22,679 --> 00:37:25,840 somebody on Twitter like three days ago they bet an in play hockey game under 506 00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:30,800 eight and a half minus one thirty or whatever, right, And then after 507 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:36,239 the game was over and the game went under eight and a half, they 508 00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:40,440 got an email from the sportsbook saying, oops, eight under eight and a 509 00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:46,440 half minus one thirty was a palpable error and the actual odds should have been 510 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,760 minus four twenty five. So we've paid you minus four twenty five. So 511 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,519 instead basically instead of saying, okay, you bet one hundred dollars, we're 512 00:37:53,519 --> 00:37:57,679 gonna pay you you know, eight, eight, you know, eighty whatever, 513 00:37:58,079 --> 00:38:00,719 you know for minus one thirty, We're gonna pay you twenty on your 514 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:02,760 winning bet, right, like, that's that's what they said, and then 515 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,000 they just do that, they pay you. They say, we're gonna pay 516 00:38:06,039 --> 00:38:09,400 you twenty instead of eighty this bet instead, right that you placed I mean 517 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:14,800 when you were making the eye I mean right, yeah, So, and 518 00:38:15,159 --> 00:38:19,480 they can essentially do this arbitrarily, right, They essentially can on any bet 519 00:38:19,559 --> 00:38:22,960 you make, they can send you an email saying saying, sorry, just 520 00:38:22,039 --> 00:38:25,800 kidding, the odds were actually this, and pay you. Now. I 521 00:38:27,039 --> 00:38:30,400 understand why they have that practice because again, as somebody who's tried to make 522 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:34,960 these odds on absolutely everything, yes, you do screw up. Sometimes, 523 00:38:35,119 --> 00:38:37,360 yes, people do take advantage of it. And sometimes the errors are I 524 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:43,199 mean, you know, I mean Matt can get bad, right, you 525 00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:47,079 know, I mean right, so sometimes the error said. But I think 526 00:38:47,079 --> 00:38:51,960 some of these sports are way over useless. It's a terrible customer experience. 527 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:57,559 Terrible customer experience, right, just really like Amazon did this. So Amazon 528 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:02,440 palppable aired me like twice. They basically I bought something on Amazon and then 529 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,599 they send me an email later saying sorry, the price was wrong. It's 530 00:39:07,639 --> 00:39:12,480 actually like I bought something for ninety nine dollars. Right, Let's say I 531 00:39:12,519 --> 00:39:15,000 think this is actually what happened is I tried to buy something for ninety nine 532 00:39:15,039 --> 00:39:17,039 dollars and then like two days later, I get an email from Amazon and 533 00:39:17,039 --> 00:39:21,440 it says, sorry that price was in error. It's actually one hundred and 534 00:39:21,519 --> 00:39:23,840 ninety nine dollars. Like we've signed you up to buy it for one hundred 535 00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:28,119 ninety nine dollars and you can cancel it here something like that, they said 536 00:39:28,159 --> 00:39:31,880 me. And I was like, I was like, well, screw you, 537 00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:35,519 you know. And they did that to me twice, and I was 538 00:39:35,559 --> 00:39:38,000 like, Amazon's going downhill. That was my thought process. And literally in 539 00:39:38,039 --> 00:39:40,519 that moment, I was like, man, if Amazon had an actual, 540 00:39:40,599 --> 00:39:45,000 real competitor, I would be trying them now, Like ye I would. 541 00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:47,280 I would be like, all right, this is obnoxious. I'm gonna go 542 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:51,920 try Amazon's compete. Well, obviously they don't have a competitor, so I 543 00:39:52,039 --> 00:39:55,360 just kind of sucked it up. But if sportsbooks absolutely have competitors, right, 544 00:39:55,440 --> 00:40:01,159 So yeah, and I think somebody is actually suing mgm over. Yeah, 545 00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,679 you know, I mean to me, it's a cause, I mean 546 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:10,760 I try not to say, right, who's wrong? I as someone who's 547 00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,800 tried to make that. I understand why they had the rules. I think 548 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,360 it should be I think there should be kind of more restrictions on how it's 549 00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,960 used. I think it should really be used in extremes. You know, 550 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,559 we've we've accidentally had games up on the software that were already over and then 551 00:40:24,599 --> 00:40:29,079 people bet it and it's like, come on, you know that game ended 552 00:40:29,119 --> 00:40:32,880 three hours ago and it's obviously software and it is and I'm sorry it's on 553 00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:37,320 there. We screwed up or someone's some bug in the software put it up. 554 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,199 I mean it happens, right, like, yeah, it definitely happens. 555 00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:43,800 I'm sympathetic to that, like, and people definitely like you know, 556 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:45,119 obviously, you know, I mean, if you put something like that, 557 00:40:45,159 --> 00:40:52,559 everyone's like to these they like anyway, it's just funny how people behave right. 558 00:40:52,639 --> 00:40:57,239 But like, you know, so I get why the rule exists. 559 00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,880 I think it's reasonable to say, Okay, there should be some kind of 560 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:04,440 but I think it's way overused and it's it's just so such a terrible customer 561 00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,079 experience to be sending people emails like that. I mean, it's especially your 562 00:41:07,119 --> 00:41:12,360 stuff, man, fix it. Yeah, well, and especially when if 563 00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:16,480 it happens the in reverse. You're screwed, right if yeah, thing, 564 00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:21,239 you meant to bet fifty dollars and you put in five hundred, Well, 565 00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,559 oh yeah you're screwed. Yeah you're done. Yeah exactly, yep, yeah, 566 00:41:24,599 --> 00:41:29,480 no, I agree. I mean it's it's definitely not fair, you 567 00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,559 know, as a fairness embedding kind of thing goes. Is it an acceptable 568 00:41:32,599 --> 00:41:37,440 practice given the circumstance, It's sort of, you know, in some cases 569 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:42,039 maybe, in some cases maybe, but I think it's way overused, and 570 00:41:42,519 --> 00:41:45,559 for sure it's a terrible customers. So I'm like, well, why why 571 00:41:45,599 --> 00:41:51,320 don't they put more effort into trying to minimize absolutely minimize that as much there's 572 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,960 there's I think it's too casual. Like in my experience in the industry, 573 00:41:54,039 --> 00:42:00,440 when you talk to industry people, they're too casual about limiting people and too 574 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:06,239 casual about papa. They're they're they're too they very much say you know, 575 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:08,719 I like, this was my face because this was my sales pitch. I 576 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:13,239 was like, I was like, we try to be as absolutely accurate as 577 00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,880 possible. We make our lines, you know, you know, and and 578 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:20,480 basically the pushback is, well, we just limit anyone who beats this or 579 00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,920 you know, well, if we make an error, we just we just 580 00:42:22,079 --> 00:42:25,719 poppable error, you know. Yeah, and and and and I'm like, 581 00:42:27,519 --> 00:42:30,199 you know, and I'm like, don't you see how that's bad for your 582 00:42:30,199 --> 00:42:35,360 business though? That practice? Like don't you want to not do that stuff? 583 00:42:36,079 --> 00:42:38,559 You know? And they don't like they it's just they're they're thinking it's 584 00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:43,440 that they're too ingrained into that's the way it works, that that kind of 585 00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,039 I think a lot of people don't don't see pads. How do you see 586 00:42:46,039 --> 00:42:51,760 the future of account limiting? Do you think that'll just continue as is? 587 00:42:52,079 --> 00:42:57,320 Get better, get worse? I mean, I I think everything gets better 588 00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,960 over time, right, Like I'm an optimist. I I definitely entered the 589 00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:06,760 business thinking it would I entered the business you know, definitely thinking that that 590 00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:10,400 that people would hear my sales pitch would be like like absolutely, you're right, 591 00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:15,360 and obviously let's you know, make our products. It's it's not quite 592 00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:20,480 happeople. But at the same time, at the same time, I did 593 00:43:20,599 --> 00:43:23,079 you know, I and obviously we have customers, I mean people people. 594 00:43:23,199 --> 00:43:27,599 There are definitely sports books out there that want to offer accurate lines there's definitely 595 00:43:27,639 --> 00:43:30,039 I mean I'm overstating it, but but I think the truth is somewhere in 596 00:43:30,079 --> 00:43:34,079 the middle. I think, you know, over time, yes, like 597 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:39,239 there there will be a you know, an emphasis on quality. I already 598 00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:44,280 see that with some of the big sports books. They are trying to make 599 00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:49,280 their their lines in pricing better. They like the some of the very biggest 600 00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,679 ones. If you read what they say in the investor calls and stuff, 601 00:43:52,119 --> 00:43:57,440 like they say, we're trying to make all our stuff higher quality than everyone 602 00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:01,400 else, like high better, pricing better, fewer errors like they say this 603 00:44:01,519 --> 00:44:05,119 in the call. And these are also the people that are winning. So 604 00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,679 and I always put on Twitter, I'm like, the people who are winning 605 00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:13,920 are telling you what they think is important industry like pay attention, and everyone 606 00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:17,679 else is like blah blah. I don't know. So, I mean, 607 00:44:17,679 --> 00:44:21,920 it would be one thing if like the little you know, upstart start up, 608 00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,000 you know, guy with more arrogance than you know, whatever, if 609 00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,199 he's telling you how to do your business, I mean, I get it, 610 00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,719 you ignore him, right, But like, I mean, this is 611 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:35,519 this is your behemoth competitor who in the investor calls and saying, hey, 612 00:44:35,559 --> 00:44:39,159 we're investing in quality and trying to make quality pricing, and you know, 613 00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:43,559 because we see it as an investment in the future and the growth of the 614 00:44:43,599 --> 00:44:46,679 business, and you know, I do, but I think it's a competitive 615 00:44:46,679 --> 00:44:51,920 advantage for them. So yeah, I think over time, I think we 616 00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,079 will move in that direction, but I think the movement will be slow. 617 00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:58,079 I don't. I don't think we're about to seech you know, instinct. 618 00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,679 So five years down the road, do you expect things to be better for 619 00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:06,719 the better than they are now or the same? I do? I do 620 00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,639 well, certainly in the US, Like and the point we make in the 621 00:45:10,639 --> 00:45:16,400 book is a lot of all this product, as they call it, is 622 00:45:16,519 --> 00:45:20,320 new. I mean it had to be rushed out, really. I mean 623 00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,599 that, you know, the Supreme Court said all right, no more man 624 00:45:23,639 --> 00:45:29,880 on sports, and then it was just basically like forty nine, you know, 625 00:45:30,199 --> 00:45:35,519 the Oklahoma the Sooners or whatever running into the state trying to stick out 626 00:45:35,519 --> 00:45:37,920 their claims. Right. I mean that's I mean, that was literally the 627 00:45:38,519 --> 00:45:44,079 kind of analogy, and I mean that that's how stuff came out, Like 628 00:45:44,119 --> 00:45:46,079 where they're like, well, we don't have anything for college football, and 629 00:45:46,119 --> 00:45:51,480 college football starts in three weeks when we do, they said when we got 630 00:45:51,599 --> 00:45:54,440 NFL, just try that, you know, like that's the that's the mindset. 631 00:45:54,480 --> 00:46:00,079 So obviously over time like that, you know, things mature and and 632 00:46:00,199 --> 00:46:04,239 you know, someone actually builds a college football specific model, and you know, 633 00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,159 I don't know if that makes it better for the better though, right, 634 00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:13,800 I mean, well it makes it well, there's less low, low 635 00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,679 hanging fruit. But these problems are intractable. I mean, it's impossible to 636 00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:23,400 price seventeen thousand different props on every single college football game and do it all 637 00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:28,519 correct. I mean, it's just it's physically impossible. So there's always going 638 00:46:28,599 --> 00:46:32,920 to be a space for someone somebody who's an enormous college football nerd and just 639 00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,599 wants to go through the college football menu with a fine tooth comb and find 640 00:46:37,639 --> 00:46:39,079 all the good bets. There's always going to be good bets. It's just 641 00:46:39,159 --> 00:46:44,800 impossible for the sports book to price every I mean, to price all that 642 00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,360 stuff correctly. So I think it'll always be good for the better. I 643 00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:51,559 don't necessarily think it's better for it. I mean, if there's if there's 644 00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:55,800 five thousand good bets on a menu or or sixty, I'm not sure that 645 00:46:55,840 --> 00:47:00,800 matters for the better, like you know, sixties enough, yeah kind of 646 00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:05,760 right? Does that make sense in all that you know? And and it's 647 00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:08,239 honestly, it's better for the better if the sports book is a little overconfident, 648 00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,719 like if it's harder to beat there, and they know because they know 649 00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:15,039 it's harder to they know how easy it is to beat this stuff, right, 650 00:47:15,159 --> 00:47:17,400 So because they know how easy it is to beat it, they're careful. 651 00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:24,440 They're kicking people off like beating you know. And and and the more 652 00:47:24,519 --> 00:47:28,599 mature it gets, the more confidence they're going to have in the quality of 653 00:47:28,639 --> 00:47:31,079 it, and the more tolerance I think they're going to show for people who 654 00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:35,880 who can beat it intelligently, you know. Just that's to me, that's 655 00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:39,760 also human nature. So that's what that's I get the optimistic view of how 656 00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:44,519 this could evolve, and and I definitely think it could evolve that way. 657 00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,519 So I wanted to ask you about and you did an interview with Gina for 658 00:47:47,599 --> 00:47:52,599 Unabated, and in it you said that you didn't believe in back testing your 659 00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:59,280 NFL model, right, and the number of people sort of we're asking like, 660 00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,480 say, what, why why do you not want to back to I 661 00:48:02,519 --> 00:48:05,920 guess we're getting a little bit in the weeds. Yeah, I'm happy to 662 00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,840 talk about this. This is a big topic. So so so the concept 663 00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:13,400 of back testing is you're saying, Okay, I'm gonna go to model and 664 00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,920 then I'm gonna look to see if it would have won in the past. 665 00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,639 Right, That's essentially what you're saying. So to me, there's two problems 666 00:48:20,679 --> 00:48:25,119 with this. One is, in order to do this, you to do 667 00:48:25,159 --> 00:48:29,840 this properly, you have to hold back data. You basically have to you 668 00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:34,440 have to take games out of your sample that you used to build your model 669 00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:39,480 and pretend those are games that I mean, your model has to not know 670 00:48:39,519 --> 00:48:44,679 about anything that happened in those games. Really in order to get an actual 671 00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,440 test. Well, they just don't play very many games. Like there's just 672 00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:52,280 not much data. The entire problem is there's never enough data. I'm never 673 00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:55,400 like, oh, I've got so much football data, Like they only play 674 00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:59,559 like in college they play twelve games a year and then and then they all 675 00:48:59,559 --> 00:49:04,480 graduate. The plans coming like there's no data, Like there's does you know 676 00:49:05,519 --> 00:49:08,320 you're always you always want more data. I mean, this is the core 677 00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:13,639 problem with modeling these sports. It's like there's never enough data, you know, 678 00:49:14,079 --> 00:49:16,559 And and so the idea of oh yeah, and I'm going to hold 679 00:49:16,599 --> 00:49:20,519 back thirty percent of my data so that I could back test, it's like 680 00:49:20,599 --> 00:49:24,119 no. So so that's my first point about back testing. Like the second 681 00:49:24,159 --> 00:49:30,199 point is the stuff is always changing. Every year is different, the rules 682 00:49:30,199 --> 00:49:35,119 and the sport are different. The market is always changing, you know, 683 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:39,159 like this, you know, we had a thing in baseball where where you 684 00:49:39,199 --> 00:49:45,239 know, we had a we basically were accounting for something in the totals that 685 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:50,239 we were sure the market was in the account and then the very next year 686 00:49:50,519 --> 00:49:57,039 exit turns out baseball decided the Major League Baseball started messing with the the actual 687 00:49:57,079 --> 00:50:00,840 baseballs. And this is an going problem if you follow baseball. It's the 688 00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:06,159 league's and they don't tell anybody. And and and I don't want to say 689 00:50:06,159 --> 00:50:09,960 it's a conspiracy because it's not. I don't even think it's there's some you 690 00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:14,159 know, oh they're juicing the balls. I don't know. I don't think 691 00:50:14,199 --> 00:50:16,480 it's that. I think it's just you know, it just happens, right 692 00:50:16,519 --> 00:50:22,199 like that. But the actual manufacturer the ball matters a lot, okay, 693 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:28,840 And then like a lot, like how tightly the threads are wound inside the 694 00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,840 ball matters for many how many home runs they hit by a lot, and 695 00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:40,440 and also the humidifiers like how they store the balls matters a lot, a 696 00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:45,800 lot like That's how they had they addressed the Colorado's Rocky Stadium when they built 697 00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:52,559 it. So they originally built the Rocky Stadium with very uh far out outfield 698 00:50:52,639 --> 00:50:55,199 walls because it's high altitude and they know the ball will carry out, so 699 00:50:55,199 --> 00:51:01,119 they tried to compensate for that by building a large outfield. The balls got 700 00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:06,559 there was enormous amounts of offense, like enormous amounts of offense in Colorado anyway, 701 00:51:07,039 --> 00:51:09,559 even though the home run rate and had to do with the fact that 702 00:51:09,639 --> 00:51:16,719 Colorado's also very dry, and so they remedied the They tried to remedy the 703 00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:22,679 over offensing there by storing the balls in a humidor and that brought the offense 704 00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:29,199 down substantially overnight. Right, So I don't want to get into specifics, 705 00:51:29,199 --> 00:51:31,840 but basically, we had we had we had stuff that would have beaten the 706 00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:38,599 totals going back to Kingdom come and it was immediately no good because they changed 707 00:51:38,639 --> 00:51:43,559 it. They just changed the balls and then it was just it was not 708 00:51:43,599 --> 00:51:45,199 a thing anymore. And so it's like and that happens all the time. 709 00:51:45,639 --> 00:51:52,239 So it's like it's like everything's constantly changing. The market's changing, you know, 710 00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,000 and it's just like and you're gonna hold data. I just don't see 711 00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:58,920 the point. Like it's like it's like, you think you have an edge, 712 00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,440 you bet it. Look at how your bets are doing. You look 713 00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:05,199 at how the market things, especially if you're betting into a market, you 714 00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,920 look at what the market thinks of your bets. You know, you, 715 00:52:08,039 --> 00:52:12,800 I mean you just you just have to figure out on the fly whether you're 716 00:52:13,119 --> 00:52:15,639 betting with an edge or not. In my opinion, yeah, you know, 717 00:52:15,679 --> 00:52:19,079 I don't. I don't think it's useful to look back. So you're 718 00:52:19,159 --> 00:52:22,800 no longer with deck Prism, which is now a huddle. So are you 719 00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:30,960 back to betting sports? Well, I wrote a book. My first project 720 00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:35,280 was to write a book because I just kind of had a stuff I wanted 721 00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,679 to say, right, It's just that I don't know, like this book 722 00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:42,679 is is stuff ed wanted to say what this book is more or less? 723 00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:45,480 You know, And then and Matt and my co author Matty, you know, 724 00:52:45,559 --> 00:52:47,400 but but you know that's kind of what the book was. And then 725 00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:52,039 yeah, I don't know. I don't have a I don't have a a 726 00:52:52,079 --> 00:52:59,159 plan now looking at you know, maybe doing some new modeling or looking you 727 00:52:59,199 --> 00:53:01,599 know, kind of kind of doing new stuff along the lines of what I've 728 00:53:01,599 --> 00:53:05,400 been doing here. I don't know. Maybe I'll maybe I'll go teach high 729 00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:09,519 school physics, which is my original plan before I uh decided to become a 730 00:53:09,559 --> 00:53:15,960 gift, but probably not. I'll probably do something. Yeah, it's sort 731 00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:20,480 of TBD. I don't have a hard plan. I would think it'd be 732 00:53:20,519 --> 00:53:23,760 hard to resist just opening those apps and saying, just free money laying around 733 00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:27,719 here, I might as well be you know, maybe I'll do some of 734 00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,320 that, although Vegas seems to be one of the worst places to be a 735 00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,559 sportsman, right well, yeah, that has to do with the regulatory environment 736 00:53:35,599 --> 00:53:40,280 here. In the regulatory environment is is uh. I would to use the 737 00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:45,599 next term i'd called stringent. You know, it's uh. It makes it 738 00:53:45,639 --> 00:53:51,320 hard to bring new things to the new technology, to this data in particular. 739 00:53:51,599 --> 00:53:54,079 So something I ask all my guests on this show is what is the 740 00:53:54,119 --> 00:54:01,000 biggest gamble in your life? Right? Okay, So I would say I 741 00:54:01,639 --> 00:54:07,000 so I adopted my son from foster care. So I would definitely say that 742 00:54:07,639 --> 00:54:12,239 that kind of getting involved in the foster care system, you know, and 743 00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,599 this is kind of with I didn't look at it this way from at the 744 00:54:15,639 --> 00:54:17,880 time. You know, at the time, I was like, I don't 745 00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:23,880 know the I don't know what I was thinking. But in retrospect, you 746 00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:28,039 know, I look back on that and I say, wow, that was 747 00:54:28,199 --> 00:54:32,280 that was a huge kind of personal risk I took to get involved with the 748 00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:37,280 system and to kind of because because once you get involved, it's like it 749 00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:42,800 could go a million different directions and it does not have to go I mean, 750 00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,800 we've had my son's great, you know, we we did end up 751 00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:52,159 adopting him. His birth family is great, you know, like you know 752 00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,920 his you know, everything's positive, you know, kind of more or less 753 00:54:55,960 --> 00:55:00,400 with the outcome, and we had a I would say I have be ending 754 00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:04,760 very much with my involvement with the system. But you know, it was 755 00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,079 definitely a bit hairy at the time as we were actively dealing with the foster 756 00:55:08,119 --> 00:55:14,920 care system, and then I heard so many hearts just horrible, you know, 757 00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:19,239 just all all sorts of things to go wrong, and so you know, 758 00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:22,360 kind of in retrospect, I would say that was that was the biggest 759 00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:24,719 gamble I took in life, was to, Yeah, it was to decide 760 00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:29,199 to become a foster parent and to decide to you know, and some people 761 00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:31,840 who become foster parents, I think they look at it differently than I did. 762 00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:35,760 And maybe in that case it isn't as big a gamble, Like you're 763 00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,639 just kind of saying, Wow, my job is to just literally just provide 764 00:55:38,679 --> 00:55:45,000 a home, and and I'm gonna kinda not not invest emotionally in it, 765 00:55:45,119 --> 00:55:49,199 not invest financially in it as much, not like I'm just kinda I'm gonna 766 00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:52,119 kind of go by the letter of Okay, well, the child needs a 767 00:55:52,119 --> 00:55:53,480 home, they can stay in my bedroom. You know, they need to 768 00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:55,880 go to school. I'll take them to school. You know, they need 769 00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:59,760 to the system says they need to go somewhere else, I'll just take them 770 00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:01,559 to the other place they need to go, and you know, and then 771 00:56:01,599 --> 00:56:05,039 I'll get a new kid in the better. And you know, I think 772 00:56:05,039 --> 00:56:07,920 some people interact with foster care and maybe in that case it's a little bit 773 00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,800 less of a gamble. But you know, kind of we went into it 774 00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:15,440 and I was just like I'm gonna I'm gonna behave like I'm this child's parent, 775 00:56:15,519 --> 00:56:19,000 and I'm going to advocate, you know, on his behalf as if 776 00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:21,880 you know, I were his biological parent. You know, I'm gonna do, 777 00:56:22,119 --> 00:56:23,920 you know, And and in that way, it's really you're taking on 778 00:56:24,159 --> 00:56:30,000 I think a big risk in doing that, because you know, they just 779 00:56:30,119 --> 00:56:36,039 that that that could go all kinds of different directions. Yeah, my wife 780 00:56:36,079 --> 00:56:42,320 and I got into the foster care system in California where I think it may 781 00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:47,119 be even more Yeah, wouldn't be surprised. Yeah, So yeah, big 782 00:56:47,199 --> 00:56:51,920 risk, and I'm glad that it worked out well. So yeah, so 783 00:56:52,079 --> 00:56:54,800 you know, yeah, so that's so so I think that's that's in retrospect, 784 00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:59,039 it's the biggest risk guy I've taken in life. All Right, Well, 785 00:56:59,039 --> 00:57:02,239 I want to thank you for doing that. This was great and just 786 00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:07,320 for the listeners, you can always reach me at Life is a Gamblepod at 787 00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:28,159 gmail dot com, or I'm on Twitter at RWN twenty one