Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck up, that's
a step hit on stay lots. Here's your hosts, Jesse Souvire and Victor
Nuno Fantasy Hockey Live. Jesse Severe from Pan Tracks here joining me. It
is Victor Nuno of Dabber Prospects. Victor, how you doing today? I'm
doing great, Jesse. How are you doing? I'm doing great. I'm
doing great, man. It is good times for following hockey. Yeah,
free agencies all done, the drafts all done. In that lull in the
middle of the summer, I'm trying to figure out there's arbitration going on,
Victor, and suddenly because of our Dynasty salary league, that has become relevant
to my life. What's happening in arbitration? But it's not being coverage because
I think all the major NHL reporters are in summer cabins. Is that your
impression too, that none of them are sitting at home right now and twittering
all the time about the different NHL moves going on. I think so,
especially because when I reached out to them, usually to come on the show,
they're like, oh, cottage. Sorry, I can't do it at
that time. It's like the whole month of July after the draft. They're
just like, cottage. Yes, I guess that's what you do. I
think a lot of folks are in Canada or probably the northern United States.
Look in Wisconsin. Everybody goes to a lake up north. That's what people
do. I don't have a lake up north or a cabin up north,
so I don't do that. But almost everybody you talked to around here is
going up north at some point, and that's exactly what they call it.
But not Victor, and I not Victor, and I'm sometimes Actually we take
the week off, but we cover for it. We keep the episodes rolling.
And so right now we're ready to talk to you about the Saint Louis
Blues. But before we do that, Victor, we got to tell the
people out there a couple of things that they're going to need to know before
we get into the episode. One of them is, we are brought to
you by Dabber Hockey. We are brought to you by fan tracks on the
podcast networks of those two wonderful entities. Today, our agenda as usual,
We're going to have our preview of the pro team of the St. Louis
Blues. We're gonna have Cat's instincts on some Blues rookie or prospect goalies.
And we're going to have the Dynasty dig about a couple of our top prospects
that we're following, a couple of Victors most watched prospects in the prospect pool
of the Blues. You can join us. You can hang out with us
and a whole bunch of other crazies, hundreds and hundreds of crazies at this
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Life is how to get me Victor Newno. Twelve is how to get Victor,
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that, you can ask us questions. You can also there's other cool things
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they can do the matrix. Yes, to come inside the matrix. What
you need to do. Or one thing you could do is you could help
us out by contributing to the Average Draft Position project that we're taking over.
A mentioned on the last episode, and that is that we are trying to
revive with Tyler Matson started and collect people's draft twenty twenty three drafts and collate
them and give it gives you an idea of like where guys are going,
and so when you're doing your draft, you can see, huh, can
I wait on Matthew Wood at pick twelve or is he going in that area?
Maybe I can wait until pick fifteen if that's what his average draft position
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contribute to that and you've done your rookie draft, then go to the draft
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We've got some really smart patrons Brandon and Jason that are working on this project
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That's a really great service that we provide. We also have the rank list,
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Patreon dot com slash Fantasy hockey life tremendous. It's time to get into the
blues. Let's go Blues. Here we go. Right after this, we
welcome our next guest, who's ready to talk St. Louis Blues with us
from the Hockey News and to NHL dot com. It is Luke Korak.
How are you doing there, sir good? How are you guys? Very
good? Ready to talk some blues. Let's go Blues here. And that's
an interesting team to talk about. They're definitely at a crossroads in one sense.
It you would have to say the Blue season meant some expectations because they
were projected in the middle of the row team. But I'm sure preseason optimists
weren't real pleased with the drop from a six sixty five point percentage to a
four ninety four. This time last year we could talk about Ryan O'Riley,
I'm Barbaschev, Vlad Teryshenko. All those guys are gone, even Clym Constant,
a guy who hadn't really met expectations. And St. Louis moved up
to Edmonton and had he had a moment there. I guess we'll talk about
the long term contracts with this team on the books throughout the show. And
there seems to be a winner's curse hangover still from the Cup Champ squad,
and in terms of team stats, penal to kill was third worst. They
took the six few of shots, had a bottom five safe percentage. But
you got to consider Doug Armstrong probably wisely through in the towel late in the
year, cleared some valuable cap space, got a lot of draft capital for
this year, and that's going to impact the stats too, because towards the
end of the season, that's where things were going. How does the team
perceive their competitive status coming into this year, Lewin, do you expect more
teardown moves or the status quote from what we saw last year? No,
I wouldn't say I see anything of the kind as far as tearing down as
concerned, that's just not in Doug Armstrong's nature. I think you can see
that by him going out and maybe it wasn't one of those splashy trades,
but bringing into Kevin Hayes, he definitely wanted to replenish fortify the center ice
position. When you lose Ryan O'Reilly, You're not only losing a locker room
guy, you're losing a guy that brought a lot to you as far as
intangibles on the ice, So they really felt like they needed to address that.
I think that bringing back recently here Oscar Sunkwist, part of that Stanley
Cup team in twenty nineteen again fortifies the center position more so in the bottom
six. So I think you can see that they definitely didn't take too kindly
to such a drop off. But you're right, Doug Armstrong's not one of
those guys that's gonna sit back and allow the ship to sink without trying to
make some sort of I don't want to say, salvageable move to try to
get the boat back up afloat. But you could definitely see that when things
aren't going in the direction that they feel like they should be going, they're
going to pivot into a different direction. And that's what they've done here.
So I think it's more of a retool rather than a proverbial rebuild, and
I think this is a group that expects to get back into the playoff hold
next year or at least fight for it, because I don't think they took
what happened last year. Lying down, they shouldn't because all things considered,
this has been a perennial playoff team, albeit they did not make it in
twenty seventeen eighteen, and we all know what happened the year after they wound
up winning the Stanley Cup. I think that's where they expect to be,
and I think that's where they're going to expect to be again next year.
It's not going to be easy, but that's certainly when you have a cap
ceiling squad and a cap ceiling team, that's where ownership expects you to be,
and that's where they're wanting them to be. Yeah. Heck, halfway
through the twenty eighteen nineteen season, the cap winning season, it seemed like
they were having a rough time and then they really kicked it in for that
second half. Let's move on to some of the players here. Jordan Cairo
up First played seventy nine games this season, thirty seven goals thirty six sussists,
led the team. The second place guy in goals, he had a
lead of thirty seven to twenty six over He had minimal hits, half a
block, well over three shots a game, trying to get a sense of
the vibe at Saint Louis about Cairou. It seems his less robust defensive game
is not necessarily that that popular with some that said, he's definitely the offensive
star of this team now, especially with O'Reilly and Taraschenko gone, his role
is only growing. Cairo and a guy will get to in a few minutes,
are about to have eight by eight contract extensions kicking in, so they're
gonna be fixtures for a long time. Some of the quotes that came out
from the end of the season presser from the Blues amaze me. The GM
and the coach seem pretty frank about Cairo and others that they really need to
put in the work going into next year. What do you think about Cairo?
Is this a ninety point player next year? And if he is,
will the team be satisfied? If he doesn't make progress in his defensive game?
Can he be a ninety point guy? I certainly think that the potential
is there. He brings those intangibles at that end of the ice. I
don't think that's ever been in question. But if you're gonna play for the
Saint Louis Blues, if you're gonna play within a Craig Ruby system and just
him take it. Even back before that, I gather there wasn't as big
of a window there with Mike Yo, but even before that, with Ken
Hitchcock and some of the other coaches that they've had in this franchise's history.
You're gonna have to be You're gonna have to be a two hundred foot player.
I know you hear that it's a cliche, but and in a lot
of sense, that's where the game goes. And if you don't have you
don't have as many of the poachers out there as you used to back in
the day when scores were what seven to six, eight to seven, back
in the eighties and in the early nineties, you just don't have that anymore.
And I think they want him to be a little a little bit more
responsible away from the puck. I think that that's gonna be natural, and
that's just gonna be one of those progressive steps he's gonna have to take because,
like you had mentioned now, when you're talking about he and Robert Thomas,
you're the highest paid players on this team. You're gonna have to You're
gonna be expected to bring the highest amount of results. That's just the way
it is. Those guys were followers. Now they're gonna be at the top,
and you're gonna have veterans there that are looking at that. I don't
care who you are, but you're gonna have veterans there that are there's I
don't I'm not gonna say there's gonna be some animosity there, but they're gonna
be looking at it going. You guys are carrying the boatload of the money.
Now you're gonna have to carry your share of the work here. And
if until these guys start to grasp that, it's going to be a challenge
because you've got Braden Shens, you've got the Bochevitch's and Brandon Sods up fronts,
and you've got your you've got your veteran blue Liners. Now that the
Paracos, the Crews, the folks, the nic Letties, these are guys
that have been warriors in this league and guys that have bought into that system
and that concept, and they're going to expect that from these guys. So
when did answer here for you? But Kiro does certainly have the capabilities of
producing and producing at a high rate. I don't think that's going to go
away, but I think more of his production is going to come. If
he's going to be able to do some of those things that maybe he's uncomfortable
doing on the other side of the puck, and if he can get to
that point, I think that's going to make him a more complete player.
That was an awesome rundown on Cairo and the next guy we've got to talk
about also pretty exciting for fantasy. Pavlo Buchnievitch, he a second year in
Saint Louis, was similarly successful to his first season. He did great over
point per game in both stints, while having slightly better on paced stats.
This season only played sixty three games, had four different stretches of missing a
few games here and there, mostly lower body stuff which put him monitored reserve
for the All Star Break. Twenty six goals, forty one assists. We've
been pretty decent. A little light on hits and blocks and shots, but
overall most of that production really good for fantasy, and he's at years left
at five point eight million. I think the Blues are pretty happy with his
production. In terms of future production, he did shoot a little high at
twenty one percent, not sure he's going to continue doing that, considering his
career average is closer to fifteen, his PDO was a bit high, and
his ice time went up. I think that a couple of those things might
be able to continue. And looking at his underlying stats, he actually had
a lot more actual goals than expected goals, so maybe there was a little
bit of luck there. But overall I think he's he's a really good player
and probably can continue most of what he did. But what do you think,
Luke, should we expect point for game Buchnevik's moving forward. I don't
see why not, because I'll tell you what, guys, since the moment
he stepped into the organization here in Saint Louis, so he's been nothing short
of fantastic. And I think that's one of those that's one of those trades
that I know people on the outside look at it and go man, did
the Blues fleece the Rangers? And it sure looks like it because considering the
give up and the return going back the other way. But that was one
of those situations where Doug Armstrong was shrewd. He saw an opportunity and a
team in the New York Rangers, that simply couldn't afford to keep him,
and they knew he was going to be due a raise, a substantial raise
over what he was making in New York, and the Rangers just simply didn't
have the cap space in order to keep all of their top end guys.
And it was one of those situations where it wasn't going to cost them a
lot in order to get him. And since he's been here, he's been
that complete player that Craig Bruby just absolutely covets. He does it at both
ends of the ice. Not only that, not only does he produce points,
but boy, he's physical. He's a pepa guy, very responsible defensively,
and just a great all around game. And they were even toying and
teetering using him if they didn't replenish their center ice position. They were even
considering they were playing him as a center down the stretch. He had his
challenges, there are no doubt about it, but that was certainly an option
that was on the table. It hasn't officially been pulled off the table,
but I would think with the acquisitions that they've made here recently, that he's
going to go back and play his more natural position. Whether it be left
wing or right wing. But he's going to be a guy that's probably going
to play with Robert Thomas and Jordan Cairou. So I certainly see the point
production being up, considering that's going to be your top line going into next
year's I just see his stock continuing to rise. He's getting into into those
prime, prime years of his playing career. He hasn't shown any regression in
his game, not in the two years that I've seen there, and if
there's a dip in his play, I would certainly be surprised. Let's talk
about Robert Thomas played seventy three games last year, eighteen goals in forty seven
says twenty two power play points. I remember last year in our preview we
talked about coaches saying maybe it would be great if he shot the puck more.
That has not happened. But Thomas is not about shooting the puck.
He's a playmaker. He's the other big forward commitment for this team. We
talked about eight by eight contract kicking in does seem to be settling into that
center one role, though the team scores well when he is out on the
ice. His individual point participation in other words, how often he gets a
point when the Blues score a goal with him on the ice is only sixty
percent, which is pretty low. So you would think with a little bit
of luck, he actually could just regress up to at more points than Matt,
maybe flip over a point per game. I would think, though the
talent around him has definitely declined too, maybe not in his line. You
talked about the guys up there, he's definitely still on the most solid part
of that offense. Is Robert Thomas' contract going to keep him in those top
roles long term? And what kind of production should we expect from him next
year? It's certainly going to Again, you're talking about one of the two
top end paying guys on the team now, and I think maybe the different
production last year it wasn't much. It was I think he lost what twelve
points compared to his previous season, if I remember correctly, And I think
what happened with him was is he had to take a little bit more of
Ryan O'Reilly's role. And when you're talking about Ryan O'Reilly, you're talking about
being on the ice in those crunch situations at the end, being the guy
that's going to have to win that important face off, being a guy that's
going to be on your top end PK unit, being guy, hey,
that's going to be on your top ENDPP unit. So he's starting to take
on a lot of the things that Ryan O'Reilly had when he was here.
And I'm not going to say that some of the responsibilities were a burden on
him. I certainly don't think so. I just think that his play was
a reflection on the team's game, and I think everybody dipped they had.
They had such lofty expectations going in because you're talking about a team from the
previous season that had nine twenty goal scorers. It just doesn't happen very often.
They were such a good team offensively, it was going to be very
difficult for them to replicate what they did the previous year. But I certainly
expect Robert Thomas's numbers to continue to climb. He's a victor, He's a
very pinpoint passer. His assists I expect him to I could certainly see him
being in the fifties, maybe even pushing in that sixty assist range. That's
just how good he is when the puck is on his stick. Now,
you had mentioned shooting the puck more. I'm always one of those guys during
games where I've got to tweet deck open and you're picking and shoes in the
spots where Thomas has to shoot the puck and there is either a hesitation or
he misses the neck. Because I think he's a very underrated shooter. I
really do, because there have been some goals that he scored or you're just
like, wow, it's pretty eye opening and it's eye popping, it's impressive.
So I think that's where a lot of the I don't want to say
criticism, but a lot of the comments that you hear about him shooting the
puck more because the coaching Steph trusts him when he shoots the puck. They
liked his shot. That's just one of those where he's gonna have to embed
that into his game. It's gonna have to it's gonna have to increase from
within himself because those are just things you don't teach. But no, I
really think his production is going to stay up there. He's gonna get his
opportunities because he's gonna be playing upwards of twenty minutes a night, maybe even
more than that. So He's certainly gonna get his opportunities. Braden Shin after
I believe what I believe was the career high twenty games missed the year before
the very reliable Historically Shin played all eighty two games last year, twenty one
goals, forty four assists, second highest scoring year of his career. And
he also throws a lot of hits and takes a lot of shots. Even
at thirty one, he will hit on the opposition. He's not afraid of
being physical. He had the third most power play time on ice for the
team. I've been worried for years, this thirty one year old, how
the number of hits he's given out over the years of what age. But
he really seems to be holding up. But his linemates really were crossed up
a lot last year, especially with allll of the movement with this team.
Is he I'm just maybe, is he the second line center for this team
next year? And does he have another sixty five point season in him?
With the talent he will be surrounded with wherever he plays. Yeah, I
think he and Kevin Hayes are going to kind of interchange depending on who's going
and who's not. And I think from a Blues perspective, they like him
both to be going at the same time. But I think they're going to
interchange in that two three center position. And I think at the start of
the year anyway, that Sheen's gonna be flanked by the two guys that have
a lot to prove. And I'm talking about Yakubrana and I'm talking about Kesberry
Kappenan. Those are gonna be guys that have that high end talent that just
simply it hasn't come. It hasn't come too in a full bloomage, especially
a guy like Kappenen. He saw what happened to him when you get put
on waivers. That's basically a team saying we don't want you anymore. And
the Blues were willing to take him on. And I think guys like that
blank with the Braden Sheen, it's really gonna help Shen's point production. And
you saw that last year, because yeah, I don't know if anybody expected
him to be in that mid sixties point range. Again a considering a guy
that's now getting into his thirties, but the way he plays, he's just
a physical player. Teammates love him because he puts his body on the line
night in and night out. Now can he continue to do that? That's
gonna be one of the big questions coming into the year for me, is
are you going to be able to get that kind of production from Braden Shan
I certainly think he's capable of doing it again, But that being said,
visit from a physical standpoint, I think you'd like to maybe see him scale
it back just a little bit because you want to preserve some of his high
end skill that he still has in his game. But that's just not in
his DNA. I'm gonna I'm gonna have a hard time thinking that somebody's gonna
put a lasso around him and say, hey, buddy, pull it back
a little bit. It's just gonna be tough. That's just not the way
he plays. He's gonna be counted on. He's gonna be counted on quite
a bit. And barring anything where they don't name a captain, this could
very well be the next captain of the Saint Louis Blues should they name one.
Yeah, that's it's a good point. Let's move on to the next
player, and that is Kevin Hayes and so Hayes recently acquired from Philly for
a sixth round pick, and lucky for Saint Louis that Philly eight half the
salary. Hayes has been consistently around a fifty point pace player in Philly,
arguably playing higher in the lineup than maybe he should have. I assume he's
more of a depth role in Saint Louis, but I don't know. Maybe
I'm wrong on that. His defensive impacts have been a little bit underwhelming the
last several years. And so where do you think that hay slots in the
lineup blue in Saint Louis? And if I put the fifty, if I
put the point pace line at fifty, would you take the over under there?
I think I'm gonna go over because I think they're going to utilize him
in more situations than perhaps the Flyers did. And I say that because he's
gonna be playing it. They're gonna be using him more in his natural position
as a center, and I think he got rubbed the wrong way a little
bit last year when the Flyers moved him out to the wing. I think
he's more effective as a center. He's going to take up some of that
slack when it comes to taking face offs. Now, is he as good
as a Ryan O'Reilly is. Statistic wise, he's a little bit under him,
but we all know how good O'Reilly is in the clutch situations when it
comes to winning a draw. But I would definitely put that number at the
over because he's going to be part of their power plays and he's gonna get
the top end minutes that that's just the bottom line. There's a lot of
situations where Craig Bruby likes to utilize, especially Layton games, where he'll have
two center iceman on the ice. He'll mix up his lines and there could
be situations where you see Kevin Hayes playing in the middle and Braden Shen playing
on the wing, and that's because Braden Shen's been that kind of a versatile
player for Craig Bruby throughout his career. Just depends on the situations. But
he's gonna get more ice time and I think that's going to provide him with
more opportunity, especially with some of those high end guys that they do have
out there, because there could be situations as well where you see Greig Ruby's
not afraid of mixing his lines up. You could see him playing with a
Pavo, So he's definitely gonna get his opportunities. And don't forget, guys,
those guys were teammates with the New York Rangers back in the day,
so there's some familiarity there between Hayes and a Buchnevich. Greg Ruby could get
creative there and you never know. I told you guys earlier that Buchenevich is
probably going to start out playing with a Thomas and a Cairo. Don't be
surprised if you see him playing with the Kevin Hayes as well. And if
that's the case, those guys seeing those guys did have some previous chemistry together
in at Madison Square Garden. You mentioned Jaka vRNA earlier, and he certainly
did have a Star Cross season. He went into the NHL Players Assistance Program
for most of the season. The Red Wings didn't seem to want him to
come back. After that, he was waived and ended up with the Saint
Louis Blues, and then he had a pretty good little run fourteen points in
the twenty games that he played with the Blues, and he took a lot
of shots he's back for next year. Do you see him as having a
significant role with the Blues or is just a mystery at this point or are
they counting on him to do something? No, I think they're counting on
him to do something because again, he's one of those guys like Kevin Hayes.
You're only paying half of his salary and he's going into the last year
of his contracts. So those three, I put those three in a triangle
and I say those three, I'm talking Vrona, I'm talking Kappanan, I'm
talking Kevin Hayes. Those are three players that were cast off by their previous
teams, and these guys are gonna be coming in here with a chip on
their shoulder. Rona was pretty successful in his short stint with the Blues and
they acquired him last year. He brought an element to the team that I
think compliments that of a Jordan Cairu, where he's got that explosive step and
he's not afraid to shoot the puck, and I think that's something that they
need more of on this team as guys that are willing to do that.
So again, he's gonna be one of those guys that's going to be He's
definitely gonna be a top nine guy for you. But I just going into
the season, I can certainly see this being a Vana shin Hap and type
of a line that at least starts things off. And obviously if it the
well runs dry or if they start running cold, then you know, again,
Craig Bruby's not afraid to mix and match his players. But no,
he's going to get his opportunities. And they know, and I've even heard
this from coaches and from management, they feel like, in the right situation,
if he's going well, that this is a guy that's capable of getting
you, if not thirty goals or close to thirty goals, and if they
can get anywhere, I would almost say anywhere in the twenty five ish range,
twenty five to thirty goals. Man, you're talking about a heck of
a bargain of a player at what a two point six million dollar cap hit
and somebody that's looking to catch in next summer. So I think you're going
to be seeing a guy that's going to have a lot to prove and given
the opportunity here, he's gonna want to perform well with the Blues because they
were certainly one of those teams that were willing to give him that chance.
I'll set it up for you a couple of more guys. You've talked about
Caspinen or a kapin In a couple of times, and we got Brandon side
writing a little bit lower in the lineup, but somebody who's been around for
quite a while with these Blues. He was fourth on the team with nineteen
goals last year. But these are both depths options. I'm curious which one
of these two you think will be more productive for the team next year.
Who's going to score more points? Kappenin or Side That's a good question.
I think that depends. It depends on who's given the more prominent roles in
situations. I would tend to go maybe with Brandon sad just because he's been
there and done that. He's been here for two years now and he said
two pretty productive seasons. No matter who he's played with. He seems to
be one of those guys that no matter what line you drop him on,
he seems to fit in well. So he's not one of those guys where
you go he's gonna have to play with such and such in order to be
able to put up points. And he's another guy that Craig Bruby likes,
He trusts him, puts him in all situations special teams as well. Where
he really impressed me was his ability to penalty kill and he scored some shorthanded
goals last year. I don't think people understand the deceptive speed this guy has
in the open ice, and there were a couple of situations where he scored
shorthanded goals where he was able to make really good reads and he's off to
the races and he's not going to be and he wasn't caught at a couple
of eye opening moments for me where I'm like, wow, I just didn't
see that in his game. And I think that's where the trust factor comes
in with the coaching staff. So I'll probably go with Brandon sod on that
one. But again, when it comes to a guy like Kappanan, don't
be surprised if you see him put up some points for the Blues this year,
because again they were one of those teams that took a chance on him,
knowing that he's going into a contract year as well, trying to set
himself up for the future. Moving forward. That's great stuff on the forwards.
We're gonna switch over to the defense now and we're gonna start with Justin
Falk. Another great season for Falk, another fifty point pace. He has
become their number one D. I think without question, with all his hits
and blocks, he's definitely the most valuable defenseman on the team. In terms
of Fantasy he ranked eleventh in bash, block, shots, and hits as
we track h eleven goals thirty nine is sists. Really great for hits,
blocks and shots. As I mentioned, ten power play points. So a
little bit lower there in terms of what you expect from your top fantasy D,
but really great all around. Four years left at six point five million
in terms of what he brings in all situations, his underlying defensive numbers are
actually a bit quite a bit low, but I guess he does play against
the best of the best around the league, and the team as a whole
wasn't so good. So there's that. But Lou, what do you think
we can expect from this upcoming season similar to what he done in the past,
or is there's another gear or maybe some regression coming? What do you
think? No, I think you can expect a little bit of the same.
But from a defensive standpoint, I think all of these guys, and
looking at a broader view in general, I don't think the Blues is a
defensive unit, could be any worse than they were last year. The goals
that they allowed last year were the most since the nineteen eighty three eighty four
season when they gave up three hundred and sixteen that they gave up three hundred
one goals last year. Falk was one of the guys at the end of
our season exit interviews that they had with the media, was one of the
more critical guys, and he wasn't going to shy away from his play as
well, it has to be better. It wasn't good enough last year and
was probably the primary reason why this wasn't a playoff team last year, because
I don't think offensively it was an issue. It was more or less just
a team game keeping pucks out of their net. And he would be the
first one to tell you that his defensive game has got to get better,
and I understand that. Yeah, he does play against the top end guys.
He's also paired out there most nice with either a Nicolette or a Tory
Krug. So you've got a defensive pairing there that maybe, depending on who
it is, maybe they are a little bit undersized when it comes to your
physical stature. But I think when you look back the season before it was
one hundred and nine point team, you're talking about pretty much the same defensive
unit that was much much better than it showed last year's. Offensively, you
love what he gave you, and you'll take fifty points from a demon,
especially a guy that didn't produce as much on the power play because he simply
didn't have all the ice time as being that powerplay quarterback. If they utilize
him a little bit more on the powerplay this year, I actually think his
offensive numbers could go up. And he's not afraid to shoot the puck.
So you love everything from an offensive standpoint, But when we talk about any
of these guys on their blue line, fellas that it just simply has to
be better. All right, let's talk about Tory Crug. He played sixty
three games last year, missing a month through the lower body injury. Was
good for half a point per game when he was on the ice, a
bit under a hit, bit under a block, two shots a game,
of course, Krug's Breton bretter is not to be a bruiser at five nine,
but to be some version of an offensive power play for us who put
up the point paces in the sixties and even seventy per eighty two late in
his Boston years. Among Saint Louis's Big four defenseman, Krug was second to
Falk in power playtime on ice and had an average power time on ice that
was greater, of course, because he played fewer games. Fourteen of his
thirty two points on the season came at man advantage. He signed up for
several more years at six point five million a year because Saint Louis likes their
long contracts. At six point five million dollars a year for defenseman. There
was druma in the offseason when there was some talk that his salary might be
part of the long trade negotiations with Philly, which didn't come to pass and
hopefully haven't damaged his relationship with the team. You think Krug is going to
be the power play quarterback next year and could it be a fifty point point
the season for the veteran defenseman When you look at over the course of an
eight over eighty two games during his Blues tenure. Yeah, he's averaged about
what he has averaged throughout his career, which is right around that fifty point
plateau. So his numbers have never been a question mark here. What's been
a question mark is unfortunately he just hasn't been able to play a full year.
He's been injury prone and has taken him out of the lineup. But
yeah, when he's in the lineup, he's counted on, especially as that
power play quarterback. And I don't think that's gonna change moving forward. And
you're right as far as they have what four no trade clauses with their top
four d men, And if Doug Armstrong was going to make a change,
he was gonna have to ask one of these guys, if not multiples of
these guys, to waive their no trade clause. And Tory krue gets And
I can't say that I blame him because it's well within his right to do
that when he negotiated his contract, if you think about it, he did
it in good faith. Actually, he took less money on his contract here
in Saint Louis to negotiate in a nold trade clause. Now you can look
at that a couple of different ways. You can look at that as is
this a guy that wants to be a part of the solution. That's the
way I choose to look at it. I don't choose to look at this
as no, he just didn't want to go to Philadelphia, which there's got
to be something to it there, because you don't want to go to a
rebuild. But I choose to believe that if he walks through those doors in
September when training camp opens, and initially I thought that was going to be
a little tough, considering when somebody's asking you to wave an old trade,
that's one of those situations again they're telling you almost that we don't want you
here anymore. But I choose to think that he decided not to wave is
because he wants to be a part of the solution here. When he's on
the ice, he could be very effective. Again, he falls in line
with the other guys on the blue line. They have to be better in
their own zone. That's just no if sans or butts about it. Because
these guys have produced on the offensive end. Can he come back here and
be a better defender than he has? I think he has to be in
order for him to be even more effective. But guys, look at it
again. I mentioned it earlier, over an eighty two game average. If
he plays, he's giving them roughly fifty points, which you can't complain with
those numbers. Fulton Parako seventy nine games, twenty seven points last year.
He is a guy who will rack up some hits, blocks and shots.
He seems to fill the role of St. Louis's top defensive defenseman and got
a whole lot of minutes second only to Falk on this team. St.
Louis will be relying on him for another seven years. As we said,
long term contracts. His real adjusted plus minus, which is one of those
stats that's out there, shows he does really well at suppressing goals, but
doesn't necessarily help a whole lot with the scoring for the team. This defensive
corps is all very able in terms of their They've all in these long contracts,
they're all thirty plus more or less. Do you expect that the roles
are going to remain very stable and we're going to see a very similar season
from Parco next year as we did this year. When it comes to him,
I think overall, I think you need more from Colton Parreco. I
just don't think that offensively he has provided enough for them, and I think
he's capable of providing more offense for them. He's another one of those guys
where we talked about Robert Thomas and not shooting enough pucks. I'll tell you
what, this guy's got a howitzer. When he unloads that shot and it
gets on targets, it could be pretty lethal. But to me, in
my opinion, I just don't think he utilizes it enough. Now, again,
it's cyclical and we can go through this with every one of the defensemen.
I think he needs to be better in his own end, and I
think that's just from a physical stature. To me, he doesn't play physical
enough. You talk about a guy that's six five, two thirty, that
should be a guy that posing forwards are afraid to go after, but they
don't seem to be because to me, I just don't think he utilizes his
physicality enough. Now does that go back to when he injured his back a
couple of seasons ago. It could be something that maybe he's a little bit
tentative with and doesn't want to put himself in that situation again. But if
I can, there's an example in a game last year early in the year
when they played against the Colorado Avalanche, right at the end of a game
where they won three to two and Colton Parako just absolutely obliterated Nathan McKinnon.
Wow, you could take that clip and you can show it on every highlight
reel, imaginable and people are going to be like, wow, it was
just it was one of those plays where you would just like to freeze frame
that and show that to Colton Parako and say, this is what you have
the capability to do to every player in this league. And I know Mike
Van Ryan, who was an assistant coach last year who had been let go,
is one of those guys. It's talked to Colton Parako about being more
physical and used that play as an example. Is it still a work in
progress? Yeah, But you know what, Colton Parako is what thirty years
old now, I think that's an area of his game where you'd like to
think that he would have a little bit more well rounded out. You remember,
you guys, remember what he was like when he played with j.
Bomeaster on a twenty nineteen team that was as good of a shutdown pair as
you were going to find, and that was a pair that was always on
the ice against Boston's top line, and they didn't allow a five on five
goal in the Stanley Cup Final, which speaks volumes in itself. So if
the Blues can get that Colton Pereko back, I think they would be tickled
to death because they're gonna have to because they're invested in him for what another
seven years. They've got a heavy investment as much just of an investment as
they have on their guys on the blue line. This is the one guy
that they put most of their marbles in and are going to need him to
perform like a number one defenseman. A couple more quick d wanted to mention
Callie Rosen and Scott prunevinch you want to get your quick take on them.
Rosen older at twenty nine, played the most games this season he ever has
forty nine, put up a forty nine games play put up a thirty point
in pace. He's definitely not the best defensively, but has some pretty good
offensive prowess. Prunovich is someone prospect followers have been waiting for a long time.
He's been great in the HL the last two seasons and the NCAA before
that. But he's a smaller guy, seems to get injured often, and
we haven't really seen him be able to play a significant role in the NHL.
So what do you think between these two what can we expect this season?
I think Callie Rosen's going to be He's gonna be one of those depth
guys because I think you're almost gonna have to put him behind not only a
Scott Prunovich, but Tyler Tucker as well, who they just signed to a
two year, one way contract and definitely earned it because of his play last
year. It was a small sample size, but somebody that they really like
in the organization. But yeah, Kelly Rosen's just he's a good depth guy
and that's just what he is. When you're talking about last year when things
were going the way they were going too often for me, and this is
not a knock on Kelly Rosen, when you're talking about him being the best
defenseman on the ice. To me, you have some problems because you have
other guys that are getting more significant time than he is. But yet he's
performing at a higher rate than some of your top end guys. So I
think he comes into this as you're I don't know, I would say,
you're eight nine defenseman. So he's on a two way contract, and I
think that's how they're going to continue to view him unless they, for whatever
reason decide to maybe try and move him. Now it Scott Perunovic, they're
finally I think the thing with him is, first of all, he's a
Tory Crude clone, and I think that's why he was one of the guys,
or he was the guy that they were willing to ask if he wanted
to wave his no trade clause because if for some reason they were able to
move Tory Krug, I think you got the same kind of a player,
especially as a quarterback on your power play in Scott Perunavich. It's for him,
it's just a question again of staying healthy. I mean he's only since
they've drafted him, he's only played nineteen regular season games, and he didn't
even play in the NHL last year. Whenever he finally was healthy, they
send him down to the HL and just wanted him to get games in it.
And that's pretty much what it's been like for him, is they just
wanted him to get games and get as much experience as he can. Now
he's on a one way contract again, but he's waiver exempts, so he's
gonna have to earn a job coming into camp this year. It's gonna be
pretty difficult considering who he has in front of him and the veterans that he
has in front of him. You all still got guys like Marco Scandella,
Robert Bortuzo, guys that he's gonna have to try to beat out. So
if peruvit's gonna stay healthy, he can be one of those quarterback type of
guys on your power play and offensive defenseman knew that they certainly would like to
have. But again, it's just going to be a question of staying healthy
for him. Perfect. Yeah, that's great stuff. Let's move over to
the goalies now. The Blues had the eighth expected goals for sixty in terms
of defensive protection for their goalies, conceded the sixth actual goals and Bennington he's
struggled since winning the Cup in twenty nineteen. He's had this downward trajectory of
his raw numbers. He still plays a lot, but his raw numbers have
been slowly going down and last season he had negative six point five goals save
above expected, negative two point two five delta Fenwick and he's got four years
left at six million. So I guess the question is on Bennington is do
you think he's like the next cam Ward who really peaked in his rookie season,
won the Cup, looked great and then never really lived up to that
potential after that, And what do you expect from him moving into next season.
It's an understand question to ask, because, like you said, the
numbers have trended in that direction. But I'm going to tell you something.
I've watched this guy closely since he came to Saint Louis and a few years
ago against Colorado Avalanche, I think the Blues, I think they have a
really good shot at winning that series if he didn't get hurt, because he
came into that playoff and I'm telling you what, he was playing absolutely lights
out and probably the biggest reason, if not the primary reason, why the
Blues gave the Avalanche two years ago, probably the most fits during that Stanley
Cup run that they had, and that was a sample size again of it's
a byproduct of the guys in front of him are playing well, He's gonna
give you what you need, and I just think the two went hand in
hand last year. That's why I tend to overlook the numbers and just how
poor they were last year from his perspective, because I'm telling you, when
you're giving up constant grit, when you're facing so many high danger chances and
backdoor tap in goals that he was allowing last year, because your defensive structure
was just that poor, it's really hard for me to put blame on your
goaltending as much as some that maybe didn't watch the Blues on a regular basis
did last year. So I'd like to I'd like to give him the benefit
of the doubt and see if he can go into a season where a defensive
structure is probably gonna look a little bit different, maybe not from a personnel
standpoint, but because you got a lot of the same guys back, but
they brought into Mike Webber, who's going to bring a different voice. He's
going to bring some different schemes there, and let's see if that helps improve
their defensive structure. Now, if it doesn't, you're probably going to see
a lot of the same again. But I'd like to think that if those
guys in front of him play well, I think he's going to give them
the saves that's going to be required for this team to be successful. And
last guy, Joel Hoper mainly played in the HL this past season, where
he was really good. He had a short stint in the NHL, looked
really good at times, looked like he struggled at times. Two years left
at seven seventy five k RFA in twenty twenty five, I don't know what
he'd be with Bennington struggling a lot, and I know you just said that
you really believe in him, and beyond the numbers, he looks really good.
But Hopefor seems to be capable, and we know we've seen Lou's goalies
come out of nowhere and steal jobs. I don't know that Hope we can
do that to Bennington, especially with that contract. But what do you expect
from Hope for this season? Do you think he can get up to twenty
thirty games or so? I think that's what they're hoping. They feel like
that he's ready to take that next step. And he had a he had
a sample size last year where things weren't going really well, and they threw
him into the fire and I thought he played really well. Thomas Grins was
just the stop gap. Let's let's call it what it is. It was
a one year thing where they just wanted to have a veteran in there because
they lost Charlie Lindgren to Washington. They needed somebody just to give Hofer enough
time and enough games down in the HL in Springfield in order for him to
make that jump. And he had a really good year in Springfield and they
feel like he's ready to take the job now. And they've got a couple
of young goalies in the system that they really have their eye on. I
know Vadim Jurenko, the Russian who's probably going to be the number one guy
now in Springfield, is going to be as a guy that they're pretty high
on here and have some hopes for. He was at prospect camp here recently.
But yeah, they just think Hofer is ready to take that next step
in and they're really impressed with his progression so far. And as a backup,
if you can give the Blues that twenty five thirty game range, I
think they would be pleased with that, and you never know if he plays
well and if he plays above expectations, don't be surprised if he gets more
than thirty games. Excellent. You've given us some great information on this team,
lou Why don't you let people know where they can follow all your work.
Hockey News everybody's got everybody's got their own team site now, so you
can go just click on the Blues team page at the Hockey News and also
at NHL dot com and the social wise. I'm on Twitter at first initial
L, last named korak k O r A C one zero and I'll interact
with people as as often and as much as I can, especially on game
nights. That's probably the best place where you can catch me. There plenty
of stuff that'll be there throughout the summer, and before you know, a
guy's training camp is going to be right around the corner. I can't believe
we're what two months away? It's coming up fast and I love it.
Thank you so much for coming on, Lou. Absolutely, guys, take
care of Wolfson and let's get fired quick. Grab now, it's your weekly
goalie talk with Cat Silverman, Cats Instincts ready to talk, Kat's instincts for
the Saint Louis Blues goalies, and I think we have a good one here,
and he's already playing in the NHL. That's of coolers. Joel Hoefer
twenty eighteen, fourth round pick, big guy, six five hund eighty pounds.
He will be twenty three this summer, and so he's definitely coming into
that goalie prime, which is always nice. He was made in the HL
springfield this past season where he looked good, and he got some NHL time
where he looked good at times and then he also didn't look great at other
times. But if you look at the goal save above expected numbers at even
strength, hopeurs six games that he had outperformed Bennington's by about double So you
know, very small sample size there, of course, but Hopefer looks like
he might have some decent upside. So Cat, what do your instincts tell
us about hopefor do you think he's a legitimate threat to being an NHL starter,
potentially pulling a Bennington on Bennington? I honestly I think so it's Saint
Louis is wacky. I no disrespect to the Blues, but what they've done
with their goalies over the last what ten or twelve years now, it's like
they it's like they put them in a slow cooker and then they bring them
out, like they bring them up to the NHL level at a point where
other teams have all but shed hope for these guys, and some of the
other teams prospect out there. We have a couple of guys that are twenty
two twenty three who teams are like, oh, this guy's a watch,
We're done with him. And the Blues hold on to guys to the point
where they wait until they are absolutely mature and ready for the NHL, and
then they bring them up. And I don't know if that has burned them
a couple times by bringing them up without that bottom half of their essentially career
curve trajectory available in the NHL, so they almost end up with a shorter
lifespan before they start to see that statistical decline. But we saw with Bennington
they almost waited to the point where I thought that he was awash, and
then they brought him up and he did just fine. They did the same
thing with Billy Husso, who they ended up ultimately, I believe they traded
him to Detroit or let him go in free agency, and they've got Joel
Hooper, who I think is he's fun. It was a little nervous watching
him play for a couple of years there because it seemed like he almost got
too timid for a guy who, like you mentioned these six foot five,
he's not little, and sometimes he would retreat, almost do the Mike Smith
who just gets so far into his crease that he was sitting on the goal
line with half his body backed into the net and made himself look smaller.
And he does stand uniquely. He has a very low upper body stance where
almost pulled himself over, and I was worried that he just didn't have the
confidence because statistically he'd do really well. And then you have a stretch where
he just absolutely tanked, and I looking at his HL numbers and his ECHL
numbers and just watching some of his overall performances, I didn't know if he
was going to get it together, so to speak. And then it just
seems like it clicked in the last year or so here and like you said,
there have been a few hiccups, but I don't expect perfection. Over
All, his consistency has looked really nice, and it looks like he's gotten
a lot more confident. He's staying more patient and remaining in the blue paint.
Usually when I say that, I'm talking about guys who we have to
coax back into the blue paint. For him, we're having to push him
out into it. When he found that confidence to stay pulled his edges without
retreating too quickly. I do think that one of the aspects of his game
that I really liked from the get go was his hands and his spatial awareness.
He was really quick using his hands to stop pucks, which is nice
seeing a bigger goaltender not just rely on his overall size. But I have
been a little nervous that he was almost second guessing himself, and I think
he learned that he has more time than he thought he did to do things,
and it really showed this last year. And I don't know if he'll
usurp Binnington just yet, and I don't know if he should because I don't
know if we want to throw him to the Wolves. The Blues are no
longer a powerhouse team in my opinion, so I think it would be doing
him a disservice to make him their clear cut number one right now and throw
him out there for seventy games a year, but I think he could probably
move up to the NHL full time this year. For sure. That's exciting
to hear because we really like those guys who have lower games play limit and
maybe a little bit easier to acquire. I think there were big things from
Hope for ahead, but as you said, they may not want to lean
on him too heavily. They also didn't want to lean on Jordan had Bennington
too heavily when he just they really didn't have any other options and he just
kept doing well, so it could happen. Yeah, I think it would
be fun to see him get one of those mad article seasons, But ultimately
I'd like to see if he does have one of those where they rely on
him a little too much and he just steps up to the plate. It
would be nice if that season that he did it was in a playoff year
for them. I don't know if that's next year, but the central is
a little weak right now, so it could be. It certainly could be.
There's a chance, And as we go through the rest of the system
here, it's not like there's a I'm not sure you'll tell me, but
it's not like there's a ton of great options either. The next guy that
we're going to talk about is Vadim Zarenko, and he's a twenty nineteen seventh
round pick, six foot four, two hundred pound, just turned twenty two,
and he just came to North America this season. Before that, he
was in the VHLMHL and Russia and then played at Ilvez in the league last
season, twenty five games in Springfield for the Thunderbirds of the HL this past
season, decent numbers, definitely ross a percentage. Numbers looked better in Russia
and he transition to more difficult league and the league I was went down a
little bit, but pretty strong in the HL. I'm looking at some comps
here on hockey prospecting and they're pretty decent. A lot of kind of like
backups like Kincaid and Josh Harding too much. Gryce is there. He does
look a little like the equivalency of Peka Rene, who was obviously great,
But I don't know anything about his style. So can you tell me a
little bit more about Jurenko? What are your instincts? Tell us? I
think it's very funny that Keith Kincaid comes up as a comp for him,
because my biggest complaint with Keith Kincaid was always that I'd watch him and some
guys you watch and you say what are they thinking? And with Keith Kincaid,
sometimes I'd watch him and say is he thinking? Because he truly liked
to go out there and just like turn his brain off and go on instinct
only like he was. He's the epitome of like vibes only on the ice,
and that's what Jurenko does too. I think he's athletically one of the
top tier goaltenders in the prospect community right now. He's got really good agility,
he's got good flexibility, has rebound ability when it comes to his lower
body movements. It's fantastic. But sometimes it's a little bit of a red
flag when I'm able to confidently say that because I've seen so many of those
desperation recovery saves that I'm able to say, hey, I just watched a
sample size of two hundred desperation saves and he's really good at those, because
in a perfect world, he's not making two hundred desperation saves. So I
think he sometimes guys rely on the vibes only, which I think once you
reach the HL and the NHL, you have to find a better balance where
eventually the shooters, they watch so much film nowadays, they sit there and
they study and they learned habits and patterns, and they learn what goaltenders will
instinctively do and try to outsmart that. And I think Juranco at the moment
still looks like he's relying on those habits and might become predictable for guys if
he doesn't figure out how to become a little more patient and keep him guessing
just a little bit more. I do want to see what happens with another
year of North American hockey under his belt. I think as far as playing
overseas goes he lives, Temper is one of the best teams to prepare guys
for playing in North America because they have a very flushed out development system.
We've seen guys the Ducks, from the Coyotes, obviously from the Saint Louis
Blues, and a lot of goaltenders will go and play there for a year
sometimes too, and then come over to North America. So that's a team
that system is set up to become almost like a transitionary period for these guys
coming from the Czech Republic in Finland and Sweden and Russia, just to feed
them in, get them prepare, and then move them over to North America.
But I just based on I watched a couple of highlights from last year,
and I think when we talk about those tiers, we've talked about it
with a couple of teams. There's a guy who's a very clear cut era
apparent to move into an NHL role, and then there's a guy who's a
wild card, and we'll feel more confident about it once we see a larger
sample size of North American hockey. And that's where I placed him right now.
I love it. Yeah, absolutely, we have to wait and see,
but that's some really good insight, especially talking about these other European teams
and what their time there means. I love those kind of insights, and
this is what we get. Thank you so much for giving us your instincts
on the Saint Louis Blues goalies. We'll be back right after this dig good
dynasty Dick talking Saint Louis Blues prospects. What do you need to know about
this system? Victor's rankings have them ranked number fifteen Dalla board of Vorski,
Otto, Stenberg and Theo Lynstein all went to them in the first round.
We heard about some of the trades that they made to get some of that
extra draft capital. So still the middle of the road, but an interesting
no brainer, Victor, who is it? The no brainer for the Saint
Louis Blues is Jimmy Snuggerud, which I just love that. I just love
his name. He's it's a fantastic name, and he's also pretty fantastic player.
I would say he was top line in the name of the in the
NCAA, with Arizona's Logan Cooley and Toronto matthew n I's probably the best top
line in college hockey. He had fifty points in forty games in the NCAA,
which is great. He also looked fantastic at the World Juniors thirteen points
in seven games. And remember this is all after a pretty okay USNTDP.
He had sixty three points in fifty nine games in his draft year, which
was like, okay, that's decent production. But it wasn't that amazing surprising
or people weren't super excited about him. So this senior season really or this
sorry freshman season, and the absolutely woke everybody up and really started to show
that what he can really do. He and Cooley are both returning to Minnesota
next season, which is going to be incredible for them, So I think
he's gonna have a really fantastic year before he turns pro. For snug rued,
his tracking data looks offensively amazing ninety seven percentile overall. His shots are
good. He has like a one and a half above standard deviation there in
terms of his peers, but his expected primary systs are nearly double that,
so he's definitely more of a playmaker, making and really dangerous passes. His
transition game is also really good, really effective. His defensive rates out at
only fifty one percentile, which is strange because I also think he's a pretty
good defensive for at least I think of him as that. Maybe I need
to reevaluate that. So all that looks pretty good, but we're gonna hear
a little bit more about him from our FHL scouts. He that's right.
Victor Jacob did a scouting report on snug Rude skating average not necessarily the fastest
skater, but as decent agility and enough quickness in his strides to keep up.
Good cuts and edges allow him to stay effective along the boards For puck
handling, Jacob says it's good his size and speed allow him to take allowing
to maneuver his way around defenders and create scoring chances for himself and his teammates.
Flashes of high end passing but not consistent yet shot excellent, lethal,
lots of power, quick release off the blade, and high end shot should
be no issue scoring at the next level. IQ the panic meter is just
medium right now, very poised most of the time, but has a tendency
to throw the puck away when under pressure defense. He plays a good two
way game. He likes to use his size to advantage, especially along the
boards where he will fight for loose pucks, primarily on the blue line,
but he puts effort to block shots and take away shooting lanes. Best asset
as we said, shooting biggest concern. As we said skating. It's not
necessarily poor, but there's lots of room for improvement, so let's hope the
Blues can help him do that. Top tier potential, Jacob sees he could
be a top six winger. He's got the tools to become a dangerous scoring
winger at the NHL level, but he's going to need to continue making strides,
but most likely a middle six winger. That's the worst case scenario for
Jacob. He could become a reliable middle six winger with average offense but a
solid two hundred foot game. Stylistic comparable anders Lee. Both have heavy shots
and good size to make plays in the zone. So in summary, Jacob
says snugger Root is a big board, lethal shot, offensive awareness, uses
his size and skill to create plays for himself, but he's going to need
to keep working on that skating. Our guy, Mason Black and the NHL
rank King did a comparison for us out on the internet as he is wont
to for us, and we thank you for that. Jimmy snugger Roed versus
Marco Casper, a guy who certainly was thought more and more well of I
think over the course of the year, and it was neck and neck on
this one. Snugger Rued came out just barely ahead of Casper fifty three to
forty seven on the poll. If you look at snugger Rood's NHL equivalency score
on Mason's model, the trend line is up and up. He's gone from
looking more like a second liner to maybe a little bit above a second liner.
In this past year, he looked like he had first line potential.
He played in a pretty nice situation, as you may recall, and his
top comp was Barrett Haydon, followed by Antoine Verment and more Frost on the
p NHLI similarity score. Victor, what do you think Snuggerroued or Casper?
Yeah, these are both guys that I really like. I think Snuggerued just
shot up so much this year it's hard to it's hard to think that he
doesn't have more upside right now than Casper. I think what Casper has done
is very impressive. But I do think Casper is more of a middle six
player who's more of a fifty point guy that probably has upside for a little
bit more, but he's just so good two way. And snug Rowed is
definitely more of an offensive winger, a little bit more in that power forward
playmaking role. But I think it would takes Snugger Roued. I think these
are good. They're both pretty close. Casper is more of a sure thing
to just play a lot of minutes, but snuggered, I think it's a
little bit more offensive inclination. So I think, yeah, I think this
poll is I think very accurate where it should be pretty close, but I
would lean slightly snugg rued. And when you look at the hockey prospecting comps,
it's pretty interesting because Snuggerud, as I mentioned, he really shot up
this year. It's really hard to increase your star potential on hockey prospecting after
your draft here usually goes down down, as it did for Caspar even though
he had a good DP plus one, he went from nineteen to eight percent
chance of being a star, so he fell in more than half, and
snug Rud started at fourteen percent and shot up to thirty five percent and his
first D plus one season, So that stuff to do looks really good in
that model. He also has some really good other comps, does snug Rude.
He's got some pretty interesting guys. Jordan Stall is there a little bit
of Jonathan Taves. Joe mcginla is a guy I think he looks a lot
alike, which I think has some rhymes because he has a sort of more
similar playing style to againla. Not that he's going to be that prolific.
But he has similarities too in terms of how much he increased his production from
his draft season to his DP plus one production. And people probably don't remember,
but Jeroe mcginla was a very mode producer in his draft year, but
he absolutely destroyed it after that. Surprising he went so early at eleventh overall
based on his modest production. But yeah, so Snugger looking really good.
The top down hockey model has him at just eleven percent chance of being a
star, though, but he has increased it year by years, so that's
pretty good and up to an eighty four percent chance of being a star.
So, Jimmy snuggerard great name. You just want to snuggle him, and
he's a scare hockey player. Can he take his linemates with him to Saint
Louis? Is that something that would be allowed? I think Blues fans might
like that his college linemates. He's just gonna hug him and take him with
him. Just hug away, all right, Victor, We got to move
on. Who is the need to know prospect for the Blues. They need
to know prospect for the Blues is Michael Butchinger. He is a twenty twenty
two third round pick by the Blues. He's a six foot, one hundred
and eighty five pound left handed D and he had sixty seven points and sixty
one games for the guelfh Storm of the OHL. He already signed his ELC
back in March, so he that's great in terms of the confidence they have
in him. He certainly will be in the at OHL one more year though,
because he's an April twenty fifth birthdate, so we got one more year
in Guelf to deal with. He was he had four to four points in
sixty three games as a D minus one, so this was a really nice
step up for him in terms of his production, and so you always like
to see that. You like to see some really good year by year gains.
In terms of the tracking data from Mitch Brown, it actually doesn't look
that great overall. He's just at fiftieth percentile his defense rates out at twenty
nine. That's going to be a big concern because for an offensive defenseman,
that's great, but you still need to be able to play defense. And
he's listed right at six zero, so he's not undersized, but he does.
Size isn't the best thing his transition game rates out is the best part
of his game actually a fifty ninth percentile. His offense just at four.
So he is not that great defensively according to this, and it certainly not
amazing offensively. So you got to see what's going to be his calling card
here, and to learn more about that, we're going to have to hear
from our FHL scout. That's right, Victor. Our scout in this case
is Brandon Utinger shows an improvement in skating confidence through the year. Linear skating
and sprinting is visually high effort, but his match with a lower speed than
would be expected. It looks like it's not like his feet are heavy,
but the whole leg is heavy and could benefit from training to generate some power
edgework and curb. Linear skating shows flashes of brilliance in high levels of comfort,
so a little bit of skill going on there. Passing and handling.
Passing his primary operative as he moves the puck's head up and with authority,
keen on moving the puck to the best possible place, and like a skating
stick, handling at high speeds tend to lose a degree or two of slickness
and maybe is a bit more choppy shooting Mukinger. He can unleash a powerful
and heavy slapshot in one timer. Rist shot is multifaceted, as he can
drip shots on goal or leaning to them with more force, wind up and
releases crisp wastes little time. The IQ Bucher has great vision for the offensive
side of the game anticipation leans in this direction. While defending, he can
be too passive overly puck focus, which opens up space on the ice for
opponents to jump into, but he doesn't panic. It just mutes his assertiveness
in proactivity for checking defense, as mentioned above, Mukingert can be quite reserved
and reactive when defending the rush. While not overly punishing or physical. He's
willing to use his body. A sweeping poke check is his primary weapon,
and defended in his zone. Usually he's collapsing to the front of the net,
focusing on the without prioritizing taking and tying up an opponent. So the
best asset is passing. The biggest concern reactionary hockey sense on defense and lack
of urgency, along with that heavy legged linear stride top tier potential seeing Brandon
Season is a middle pairing guy support D approaching forty five points with some powerplay
development even strength, he'd need to be paired with a D partner that causes
turnovers and wingers that can get open fiftieth percentile role between HL star and NHL
journeyman. Of course, it feels like that's everybody's fifty percentile role that can
bounce around from club to club with hopes of finding the right chemistry to fully
unlocked puck moving potency and shot caliber stylistic comparable a timid Duncan Keith. Can
one imagine such a thing reduced aggression intensity mixed with shades of Justin Schultz's puck
focus and nose to activate. So let's look at the NHL rank King Mason
Black and the poll he proposed for us Michael Boukenger versus Ethan Sampson. Ethan
Sampson, who is a Philadelphia Phillies guy who has picked in the sixth round
in two twenty one, Buckenger kind of thoroughly won that vote seventy four to
twenty six. And if you look at his own Buckenger, his own potential,
it has moved up to first line potential. That's very nice of course,
it also compares the Dennis Wideman is his top p NHL similarity score,
Victor? Is that the way that you do this? And do you have
any additional ways that I could pronounce the name Michael Bouchenger incorrectly and differently distinctly
from the number that I already have. That's one of your special skills to
find new ways to mispronounce names. So I'm sure you can now victors in
my four sport draft. So I hope the whole reason I've got him there
is so that he can see all the miserable names in other languages that asked
me up that caused me to be unable to pronounce an hil names sometimes.
Sure, that's it? Yeah, yeah, So Butchinger is interesting, like
you mentioned, and that was a great scouting report. There's definitely some holes
in his game and consistencies and things that need to improve, And while the
offensive upside isn't amazing, I still think he's much more exciting than Ethan Sampson.
So I would definitely take Michael Butchinger here. There's also there's are some
young offensive defenseman prospects in St. Louis, but they're a lot closer to
being a n H already, so by the time he gets there, I
think there's a decent chance that he has a good shot to do something.
Middle pairing with second middle to bottom pairing with second power play upside, it's
pretty something. So that's okay. Maybe he rounds out the rest of his
game. Maybe he gets a really good partner that unleashes some of his other
skill. As Brandon mentioned that was that's a good point. So yeah,
there's there's some good upside there. In terms of the hockey prospecting, he
really increased his potential this year, went from fifteen to forty two percent chance
of being a star, whereas Ethan Sampson has covered in that fifteen percent chance
the last few seasons in the WHL. So I still think there's something there
with Sampson, especially for a sixth round pick. I like that. I
like the lottery ticket there, But I think he's much farther from being a
legitimate top prospect. So I definitely would lean Butchinger. And if you look
at just Butchinger's individual stats and comps, then he looks pretty decent. He's
got some Henry Joki Haru comps. He's got ed Jovanovsky comp which he actually
looks a lot alike, was also an OHL guy. Big difference there is
Jovanovski after a D plus one season was in the NHL doing things, doing
good things. So I don't that's not going to be the case for Butchinger.
We know that because he can't. He's too young, and he's unless
he makes the NHL and right this season, which I don't think he's I
think it's pretty unlikely. So yeah, he looks great in terms of the
top hockey sorry, the top down hockey model, it's a little bit more
pessimistic. Just four percent chance of being a star and sixty nine percent chance
of being an NHLer. So there's a little bit more uncertainty there with puch
Younger. But I think if you haven't heard about him, and that's why
we talk about him, and maybe you should put him on your list and
if he's available in a deeply grab him or sure, Victor, we're on
to keep your on prospect. Who is it? This is gonna be Zachary
Bull Duke QMJHL and Memorial Cup champion Zachary Bull Duke, which is pretty fun
if you weren't following along one hundred and ten points in sixty one games for
Bull Duke and the qm JHL. That's a pretty good season for him.
He had ninety nine and sixty five last year and so that was a pretty
big step up. I should mention he was a twenty twenty one first round
pick, seventeenth overall, and so he's a six foot, one hundred and
eighty pound center, and so that was his D plus one season. So
he played in his draft here for Ramuski and he was remember they had a
shortened season there. He was right around a point per game. So it
was really nice in his D plus one to see him go ninety nine and
sixty five, and then his D plus two season even more with one hundred
and ten and sixty one, so really great increases in production. You'd love
to see that. He pretty much tapped out exactly what he could have hoped
for in the queue with the championship in the Moral Cup, and he's going
to be in the HL next year, so we're going to see if he
can really hang in with the pros. It's going to be an important transition
for him. He's got he signed his ELC, but it's sliding, so
he's got he's got a few more years in terms of that. Well,
we're gonna we're gonna enjoy seeing him in the HL, but we're gonna hear
a little bit more about this player. Jesse, why don't you tell us
what our scout things, And not only our scout, but it's our guy,
Nate Duffett, who is going to give us some information on this guy.
Skating average and Nate reached a middle ground in Bulldock, giving him an
average rating. He's got above average streight lines being agility, but below average
acceleration and work ethic. Unfortunately, mostly on the back end, he can
be preserving his energy for the next time rather than go out right at it
at the beginning. Puck handling above average. When Bulldock gets the puck in
the tight areas, it's something special to watch doing things only a select few
players in the QMJHL could do. This season, assist numbers really caught up
to puck handling and playmaking abilities. Sixty assists in the regular season, twelve
in the postseason. Shot average advanced stats show a player with a below average
shot generating low expected goals and totals and shot slot shots, but when he
does give himself an opportunity, he has an accurate bullet of shot that can
deceive goalies when shooting off the rush. I Q average playmaking and puck skills
are some of his greatest assets. Sometimes decision makings in all zones can cause
issues. His playmaking numbers are high and most areous except for the metrics that
measure slot pass success and viewings. Seems to be blinded by his exceptional ability
to fire off no look passes and find players in tight spaces with chances to
score, But problems arise when he starts to force these passes too often causing
turnovers and chances the other way. His defense average Bullock needs some considerable work
on the defense tendency to wave it pucks instead of stopping them, and in
his QMJHL games there were many times where he likes to fly into the zone
and cheat to get scoring opportunities. Sometimes that will get great success in the
queue he turned it into breakaways, but at the pro level, Nate doesn't
think that practice is going to work. Best asset then playmaking. Biggest concern
skating and compete level. What would he be at the top tier a top
six forward. His personal and fantasy upside is very high. If he can
improve on his skating and compete level when he really gets going out there in
the ice, he'll have the ability to succeed in a variety of ways,
as we saw in his one hundred and ten point explosion this year. Most
likely tier probably a depth forward. Hard to predict where he will land when
he reaches the NHL level. As outlined in the top tier is upsides through
the roof. You can become a seventy five to ninety point guy, but
he's going to have to improve the defensive play and potentially the work ethic or
at least what's showing on the ice for that stylistic comparison comparable. Nate struggled
with this a little bit, but he said an article with Bulldock said that
one of his favorite players was Avghany Kuznetsof so at his best, Kuznetsof is
a past first center was benefited from playing with good scores, and so that
would be a wonderful career for Bulldock if he can look back and have something
like what Kouzi has done. The NHL ranking Mason Black gave us a comparison,
and in this case, you put Bull du versus pasta Job, Sasha
pasta Job of the Anaheim Ducks, a third round pick from twenty twenty one,
who is in the OHL versus the Q, and the comparison there went
strongly in bull Duke's favor sixty six to thirty four percent. So, Victor,
what do you think here? Is pasta Job or is Bull Duke your
favorite of those two guys. I'm actually gonna go against the people here and
I'm gonna say pasta Job. It's interesting, though, because I think bull
Duke is a much more likely NHLer in terms of his skills being projectable,
like his place in the lineup. As you mentioned with our scouting report,
he does seem more like a middle six kind of guy to me. But
I think that he has upside and I think that he could be a forty
five to fifty five maybe even sixty point player in there. But he's not
a kind of guy that I think is going to command power playtime at the
NHL level. It's possible he gets some, but pass a job like you
don't have Sasha passa Job on your team unless you're gonna put him in an
offensive role unless you're going to have him be on the power play, unless
you're going to give him those offensive minutes, which you know, obviously for
fantasies what we want. So to me, in terms of do you want
a guy that you are pretty sure is going to play, then you take
bull Duke. If you want a guy that has more upside, I think
you have to take passage Job. And to me, because I think bull
duke ceiling is a little bit lower, I would rather just take the chance
on pass a Job and if he doesn't work out, I just move on
to another prospect rather than sitting around waiting for bull Duke to maybe get the
right opportunity and then in the end you look back and he's just like a
sixty point guy, and then you're frustrated because that's not that hopeful in most
fantasy leagues, unless that is, unless it's like you're in a thirty two
team league, then sure, then I think it's bull Duke. But in
terms of just upside and roll, I think it's got to be passag Job.
And it's interesting when you look at these two in hockey prospecting. Passage
Job has a pretty significant edge in his draft here. Coming out of the
USNTDP, he had a seventy percent star potential. It was so massive,
and then he bounced around. He had that OHL, he'd him went back
to the OHL. He was actually committed to the NCAA and then d committed
and then went to the OHL. It was like a whole big thing.
And anyways, he's now at thirty seven percent chance of being a star.
That's all double where Bull Duke started, which was like at nineteen, and
then he's trended down. So Passage Job really takes the cake here, although
they have a similar in this model. Anyways, they have a similar NHL
or probability, which is surprising if you look at bull Duke in terms of
him individually, he's got some pretty good comps, including some guys that have
been stars you look at like your T Josh types. He's got some other
interesting comps. One of them is Jake Gensel, which I don't think he
plays like get Jake Gensel at all, and I think Jenke Hazl has a
lot more skill, but T Josh maybe he could maybe have some. I
think in general his upside is much more limited. He has much many more
comps in this model that are replacement level producers, does Zachary bull Duke.
So I could list them off, but you don't know who they are,
and they're either busts or replacement and so it's not that interesting. And in
terms of the top down hockey model, he's got just two percent chance of
being a star. That's pretty unlikely, and also just a twenty one percent
chance of being an NHL, which I think is pretty pessimistic for a guy
who's done what he's done in a queue and we'll see what he does in
the HL, but I think he has a little bit more than that.
But Jesse, there's more St. Louis guys that we could talk about,
but there's no time. Anyone who wants to hear more. You can hear
my top Prospects a video for each team on Patreon if you're a Patreon subscriber,
and then if you're interested in doing some scouting, you can shoot us
DM on Twitter, discord email us. But thanks posting Fermtis. We'll be
right back to close up to show well, everybody, you should be playing
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Fantasy Hockey Life