WEBVTT

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Welcome to mid Rats with sal from
Commander Salamander, an Eagle one from Eagles

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Speak at Sea or Shore your home
for a discussion of national security issues in

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all things maritime. And good day
everybody, and welcome a board. We're

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really glad you've taken time to be
with us today, and if you are

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go ahead and jump into today's show. And when we look at the last

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thirteen months, we've seen a scenario
a few and NATO's uniform and civilian leadership

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either predicted or if they did think
it has happened, they didn't think it

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would turn out the way that it
looks here in the end of March of

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twenty twenty three, and kind of
using that as a kicking off point,

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we want to look today at how
the Alliance has reacted, grown, succeeded.

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Are shown some cracks or perhaps some
different views on what the alliance is

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for amongst it's very different perspective holding
members and to discuss that we have returning

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for the full hour today a guest
we've had on previously to talk about NATO,

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and that is George Benitez, Associate
professor of International Relations at the Marine

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Command in South College in Quantico,
Virginia. George, welcome back to Midrid.

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It's a pleasure to be here.
Thank you for inviting me, hey,

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and just to kick things off.
Like I mentioned right at the intro,

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let's let's roll it back a bit, and we all watched in February

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of twenty twenty two as especially kind
of the trigger point for me is when

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the Far Eastern forces conducting exercises and
Villa Russia didn't go home that things are

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probably going to get interesting, and
there was a accumulated conventional wisdom that all

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the smart not all the smartest people, but the balance of the smartest people

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in the room were convinced that this
operation was going to go. And you

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saw that manifested in a lot of
the initial hesitancy from different nations and whether

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on the military or the economic side, especially with the energy and fubbly take

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for a second, let's roll back
to February of twenty twenty two and talk

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a little bit about the inventional wisdom
inside the Alliance and as the initial acceptance

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of the invasion took place, where
most people were thinking it was heading and

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what different schools of a thought inside
the Alliance that you saw. Thank you.

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So this begins back in October,
where the United States and some other

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intelligence services are starting to see some
evidence that the Russians are planning something more

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than just an exercise. And one
of the differences is that the administration starts

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to disclose some of this data.
They send the CIA director to Moscow,

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they start talking to the other allies
and to say, hey, this mobilization,

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this exercise that the Russians have been
doing for the last few weeks,

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it doesn't look like they're gonna stop. They're gonna keep some pressure on Ukraine,

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and they might be trying to build
up to do an actual attack,

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and we need to let them know
that we see what you're doing putin and

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we want to to stop. But
of course it didn't deter them enough.

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We didn't try to stop them,
and so you had the attack by Russia.

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We looked at basically what was on
paper for the Russian military, the

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quantity and the advanced nature of some
of their weapons system, and we thought

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the Ukrainians couldn't match it, tank
per tank fighter for fighter worship by worship,

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and so we kind of focused too
much on that, and so once

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the invasion begins, you see a
real manifestation of the pessimism of the West.

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With the US offer to President Zelensky
that we would evacuate him and his

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family. And then of course you
had the very famous response from Zelenski,

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which is, I don't need a
ride, I need ammunition, which which

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is a great manifestation. It went
viral around the world, and it's one

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of the great examples of how the
Ukrainian people, from the grassroots to their

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top national leader. They knew they
were assassination lists of people that the Russians

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wanted to kill them, but they
were willing to stay and fight for their

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freedom. But for those first few
days, the United States in the West

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didn't think they could that enthusiasm,
that patriotism wasn't going to be sufficient to

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deter the Russians. We overestimated the
skill of the Russians. We and the

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Russians themselves overestimated how much of their
equipment was actually working and how much they

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could get it to work properly.
We overestimated their logistics, their training,

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their command and control of their communications, pretty much everything. And so it

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didn't turn out as well as we
had thought on paper. The Ukrainians were

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actually much better at some of the
things. They learned a lot of things.

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Since twenty fourteen, they've gotten much
better, much more united prepared for

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these Remember they've been signing the Russians
in their east part of the country for

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over eight years, so they got
some very experience, not just truth but

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also leadership. And I think if
we had sent provided more direct support at

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the beginning, would it would have
been much more helpful and that four more

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Ukrainian lives could have been saved.
But like I said, at the beginning,

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we were pessimistic that the Ukrainian could
survive. It has been leaked since

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then that the Russians were talking about
and planning for a two or three day

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victory by which they thought they could
seize Kiev the capitol, and knock out

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the leadership in the first few days
and then install their own puffer government after

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that. But once that broke apart
and things started to disassemble, you had

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that forty mile convoy north of Kiev
that was just the sitting duck, and

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so the Ukrainians kind of bogged them
down in a real conventional fight. That

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basically, the Ukrainians have been able
to be more skilled, even though they

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have fewer personnel and and and much
less equipment, They've been able to just

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improve themselves and they bought themselves in
those time to change the calculations of the

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West. First they changed the calculations
in Central Europe, in Poland and the

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Baltic Republic adelsewhere that they started to
see they were the most enthusiastic to begin

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with to start sending help to the
Ukrainians, and then slowly and even to

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this day, you know, incrementally
changing the US support and the US amount

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of military aid that we are sending
to the Ukrainian. Well, that's interesting

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point because one of the things I've
noticed is that the Baltic states and the

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states that are have borders with the
Russians or with Ukraine seem to be much

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more vigorous in their support of the
Ukrainian efforts in defense as compared to some

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of the more eastern or more western
in this case, and NATO nations,

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can you kind of discuss the reluctancy
of the Germans or the or the French

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to provide as much aid as the
Poles and the Baltic country. That's an

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excellent point, and that's the only
an issue. Even in the United States,

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you're seeing a lot of headlines and
articles being written of can we keep

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helping the Ukrainians, can we keep
sending so much support there because our own

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spots piles are being dwindling. That
you've seen a lot of the open source

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figures on PGMs and the US normal
production per year for javelins and such,

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and how much how many were standing
over there, and how much are arsenal

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is decreasing. And I think what
you said absolutely is right is that the

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Central Europeans, the Poles, the
balls that they have the right interpretation,

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and their interpretation is it is better
to fight and kill the Russian military.

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It you brayed them to wait for
it to get here. So at one

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point you have say the Lithuanian Defense
Ministry they sent half of their equipment who

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to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians,
not just half of the stuff that they

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get every year, half of all
the things they have, because again they

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feel that if they help Ukraine win, if the if the Russian military is

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defeated in Ukraine, that makes Mithiuayia, that makes all of the Baltics,

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in Poland, all of NATO's eastern
flankts Central Europe, it makes all of

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them safer because again, defeating the
Russians militarily in Ukraine makes it much less

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likely that they'll be able to attack
any of the NATO countries elsewhere. And

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I do wish that that kind of
logic brought on more in the United States

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here in Washington, that we believe
that and we're what and in the other

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NATO capitals like Paris, like Berlin, that we would also send proportionally about

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the same amount as the Central Europeans
are doing to help Ukraine, because I

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think that's one of the fundamental keys
to this conflict. I think the Ukraine

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conflict is going to be one of
the two most influential conflicts in our lifetime,

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the other one being Desert Storm.
But however, the Ukrainian conflict ends

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whether we make the right decisions and
contigue to help the Ukrainians defend themselves and

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win. This conflict is going to
have a lot of influence and repercussions for

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the next several decades of European security. It's important to have in to listen

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to different points of view and things
like that when it comes to issues like

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this. But I found it interesting
that you can almost trace a lot of

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the attitude towards the Russians to their
proximity of it the Baltic Republics and the

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former members of the Warsaw Pack that
are now in Nigers of NATO. They

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know Russia better than anyone because they
have the most recent data point to deal

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with them, and they have a
political structure such that their leadership that will

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do that as opposed to what we
see in some other nations. I thought,

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what's also been interesting it has two
other nations that in their history which

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dates before World War Two, also
have never really kept their eyes off of

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the Russians except for small little periods
and compromises. That's Finland and Sweden.

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And I remember a Finnish army major
that I served with in Afghanistan. We

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used to talk about this all the
time and this ISZ eight O nine,

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and he'd always say, well,
from the military point of view, you

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know, we pretty much consider we're
NATO but a name. We just need

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to let our political ships and catch
up. And I forget the name of

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the president at the time, and
he said, and a lot of it

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people are quiet because of who the
president is and his view on things.

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So take for a second and talk
for a bit about the move of NATO

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and Sweden to take that final step
they've been working on for a few years

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and to join the Alliance, And
did you did you see that as something

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that would happen, And it's though
that did happen as quickly as you thought

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it would. Thank you. That's
a great insight. And I agree with

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you that generally the closer you are
to the Russian border, the more your

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threat perception increases and the more you're
willing to do to defend yourself. And

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I think the examples you gave Sweden
in fending in particular that after the end

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of the Cold War, after the
end of the Warsaw Pack and so the

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Union, all of stel all of
the members, including the United States,

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we cut our defense budgets. The
US took out about three hundred thousand troops

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from Europe and brought them back to
Konas and everybody else strength and military.

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But we forgot to pay attention because
Finland did not Finlan. You know,

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one of the standards, one of
the metrics that NATO set up after twenty

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fourteen was that every member should spend
more than two percent of their GDP on

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defense. And it's been a hard
time trying to get all of the members

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to do that. But Finland,
which is not a member of NATO,

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but it's right next door to Russia. Because it shared such a large border

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with Russia, it didn't have to
be told to do that. It did

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that on its own. Even ever
since the end of the Soviet Union,

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they have still kept up their two
percent, more than two percent of defense

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spending. That's why now when they
joined the Alliance, they're gonna have one

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of the most capable and advanced military
forces to join the alliance. They also

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have a very robust civil defense,
a villiant excuse the infrastructure. They're much

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more willing to protect themselves and to
fight for their freedom, partly because they

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worked in an alliance and they knew
they were kind of going to have to

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be on their own, but also
because, like you said, the closer

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you get to the Russian border,
the more you're concerned about the Russian threat,

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the more you take it realistically,
and the more the Fins and others

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are willing to invent to keep their
peat and to defend their freedom. It's

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interesting particle the other day that the
defens the Swedes, the Danish, and

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the Norwegians have joined their air forces
are going to make a combined air force

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as a mini NATO. But that
gives them two hundred and fifty aircraft,

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which makes them I think the third
or fourth artist air force. Uh,

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certainly on the content, maybe right
behind France and maybe maybe the US or

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or anyway, they're going to be
a very large air force. But it's

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interesting because all those countries except Denmark, as you know, have borders with

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Russians. We just said, and
Denmark has that eury key position at the

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end of the of the Baltic stracer
to to defend. So what do you

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think about that? I know that
fairly recent announcement. That's an excellent announcement.

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Um. They have always had a
close integration, even before Sweden in

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Finland decided to join the alliance,
The Nordic kind of practice a lot of

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air coordination together. Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland did things together,

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uh, separate from NATO because two
of the members were not in NATO.

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But they always they're very close neighbors. They cooperate a lot, They have

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a lot of consultation and cooperation on
defense matters with each other. What you're

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about to see is the revolution on
NATO's eastern and northern flank. That would

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the addition of Sweden and Finland because
they they what we have now because of

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the geography of NATO enlargement of the
acquisition of new members. Norway was one

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of the original members, Denmark was
one of the original members, so they

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were kind of the northern flank and
the old Cold War scenario of you know,

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the Soviet strike across the fold the
gap. But since NATO has required

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new members, the newer members were
farther east. But they were also smaller.

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So you had the Baltics, you
had Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania,

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which you know, out of no
fault of their own, they're just smaller

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territories. They don't have strategic death
they have smaller populations, smaller economies.

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So the total military of Estonia,
Laptey, and Lithuania combined is smaller than

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the New York City Police Department.
So they do as much as they can,

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but they are limited by certain parameters. And but now with the addition

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of Sweden and Finland, these are
larger territories, larger populations, larger militaries,

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more advanced militaries, and they have
very capable in terms of training and

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equipment and technology. They're really at
the top end of the spectrum of our

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just at the global standard of what
they're contributing to NATO. So some people

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have referred to that it's gonna make
the Baltic and NATO lake geographically. There's

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some realizing to that because Russia is
only gonna have a very narrow strip of

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coasts. I'm still accessible to that, but I think overall they're gonna build

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up on this trend. Now what
this is just one of the first announcement.

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You're going to see a lot more
of this type of thing of with

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Sweden and send them Now being incorporated, You're you're not going to see this

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is a good step toward it integrated
air defense of the North. You're going

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to see more of this with their
navies, with their armies, and it's

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just gonna make that eastern flank of
NATO, particularly the northern part of it,

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much stronger, much easier to defend, and much safer because by making

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it stronger, the deterrence is gonna
work. We've already seen part of that.

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Russia has attacked two of its natives, Georgia and Ukraine. It has

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never attacked a NATO country because it
respects NATO's Article five and the Alliance collective

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defense. But it threatens Sweden and
Finland that if they tried to join NATO,

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it would provide a military response,
but we have seen no evidence of

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that. In fact, we've seen
the opposite. The Russia's war in Ukraine

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is going so bad that it's pulled
out troops near Finland and that were there

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normally and refocus them, and we've
deployed them to Ukraine because it's so they're

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so desperate for troops. So whatever
Putin says about the Natal threat, even

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his action shows he doesn't take this
seriously, because he's moved troops away from

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both the Finnish border and from the
Natal border and put them into Ukraine because

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that's his real priority there. And
I just want to get back to the

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question that sal asked me earlier,
which is did I see this, this

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NATO membership question coming in for Sweden
and Finland? And I wasn't a minority,

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and I did see it coming.
Seeing this for years, I've been

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talking to the Swedes in the sin
most of them didn't see it coming either,

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because for so many years they have
a very close partnership with NATO,

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but both of their publics were kind
of very difficult to want to take the

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actual step of membership. But I
had been seeing that slowly over the last

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few years, especially since twenty fourteen, popular support for NATO membership had been

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growing steadily in both of those cookies, it hadn't reach fifty percent yet.

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But when Putin attacked Ukraine, when
I started to see the footage of that

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conflict, when they saw that this
wasn't just little green men, it wasn't

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a corporate opts, it wasn't a
graze. It was a old school,

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traditional conventional invasion of Russian tanks crossing
a porter. I said on February twenty

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fourth last year. This before the
end of the year, Sweden and Finland

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were asked for NATO membership because Putin
and Russia had broken the tradition, broken

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the path, and it was going
to be too much of a threat now

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for Sweden and Finland to want to
sit out on their own. And against

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this potential threat, that I put
one in Ukraine that he they knew that

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they would be next on his lips. So even though a lot of them

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didn't feel that way, we began
to see within the first few days a

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change in the leadership of the President
of Finland Ninisto, and of the political

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parties in Sweden and Finland. Swedish
political leadership moved a little bit faster,

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but eventually, I mean finished political
leadership moved a little bit faster in requesting

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this. They sent their president to
Washington to discuss it with Biden to see

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if the US would support it,
but more quickly than most of the people

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around Europe or even in Sweden Finland
believe they felt that the threat from Russia

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after this twenty twenty two invasion was
too great and that Sweden, in filand

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had to change their historical decades long
position of being nonaligned and staying outside of

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the two paths. They felt they
had to make a choice and that they

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saw that if they wanted to be
avoid another Russian attack, regardless importance threats,

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that Russia does not attack NATO members, and the safest place is to

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be within the Alliance and to have
that connective defense. I think one of

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the early Russian victories, it only
becomes a stronger victory as time goes on.

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And though unintentioned on their part and
in previous visits, you've had to

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interact, you've actually talked about this
question. Is in certain segments of both

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European and North American politics and commentary, people said, you know, why

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does NATO still exist? Why are
we still doing that? And well meeting

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people could could have argued that,
I don't think, as we stand here

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in in the early spring of twenty
twenty three, that's really a question well

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meeting people can ask, because those
who would try to explain NATO would always

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say, you look to the east. It was impolite to say, and

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you had to be careful how you
phrased it because of efforts some people were

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trying to make to bring Russia in. But I think it's pretty clear now

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why NATO exists, and that's I
think that helped the political situation in Finland

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and Sweden, where they look at
people who are making that argument about the

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nature of post Soviet Russia, they
just say, well, post Soviet Russia

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is similar to pre Soviet Russia.
Let's go join the club next door.

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Good points, good question. I
think one of the reasons why you ask

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me back on is because I'm not
as diplomatic or as polite about how I

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answer that question. I answered that
question the end of my first regards in

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that the European Command only consumes about
five percent of the Department of Defense budget,

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So for five percent of the DEOD
budget, we NATO and YU can

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prevent a great power conflict in the
European continence. The twentieth century was defined

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by two great World wars in the
first half of the twentieth century and by

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peace in Europe in the second half. And the reason for the peace in

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Europe in the second half was strength
to deterrence, strength through collected defense,

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strength through the NATO Treaties signed in
nineteen forty nine, that despite the threats

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and the covert actions done by the
Soviets, they respected the alliance, sticking

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together. And the key strength of
NATO is that it is made up of

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democracy democracies that protect themselves against this
external threat that they couldn't defeat on their

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own. And even after the Cold
War, when I would do briefings at

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the Pentagon or the state officials,
I would throw a chart, which is

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to say, look at the size
of the Russian army. It is smaller

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than the Soviet army, but the
Russian army is still the largest one on

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the European continent. The only way
that the other powers in Europe can can

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deter that or even match it is
if they joined together, and the main

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way they joined together is then so
only by the European armies working together can

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they deter the numerically superior Russian army. And now we see in Ukraine that

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the numbers aren't as big, and
that their their their military prowess is not

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as skilled. But the threat from
from Russia, which was clear even from

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the beginning, even in the in
the glory days of Gorbachoff, and we

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thought it was going to be the
end of history and there was going to

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be peace with the Russians. Even
during the gorbachof stage, we saw that

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there was a military coup, and
we saw that the generals and the KGB

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kidnapped Gorbachoff and held them hostage for
a few days, and the world held

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its breath. So, even in
the best case scenarios, if there was

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a democratic Russia, which we haven't
really seen since the days of Yelton,

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that Rasca was really just the cool
away from the old days. And when

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we began to see more and more
evidence of from Putin going as far back

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as the two thousand and seven Russian
cyber attacked against Estonia, which was the

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first documented case of a state sponsored
cyber attack, and then in two thousand

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and eight the attack against Georgia,
and then in two any fourteen the attack

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against Ukraine. For for years when
when people have raised this question of why

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do we still need NATO? And
in my answer would be Russia has attacked

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two of its neighbors militarily. How
many more European countries does Russia have to

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attack before we take the threat seriously? And we improved the turn. That

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is the role of NATO, And
that's why the Russians don't attack it because

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NATO, if it is strong enough, keeps the peace and prevents foreign powers

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from attacking the Western democracies. One
aspect of Russia is that they are bullets.

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So talk about bit about Russia's move
of nicker weapons to Belarus and what

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that what that is it held?
I guess it's an active intimidation. What

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what is this is just part of
Russian imperialism. But talk a little bit

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about that, you know that is
that just fully stuff or is put and

325
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dumb enough to to really use nicktar
Weponsson, I think it's a couple of

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things, one of which is that
even before this conflict, even before his

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invasion of Ukrainian twenty four put changed
Russia's nuclear doctor in the In the Soviet

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days, the Russian had numerical security
over NATO. And if you go back

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and you look at all the war
game plans and exercise it, it was

330
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it was really a question of the
Soviet and Warsaw Pact had just so much

331
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more. It was a question of
time. Could the West, with the

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forward deployed forces, And this is
the reason, while we had almost passive

333
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million US troops in Europe, could
we slow them down long enough before the

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reinforcements from Great Britain and the United
States reached the front, or could they

335
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push through and seize the channel ports
and prevent the reinforcement is Back in those

336
00:27:18.599 --> 00:27:22.559
days, the Soviets were so sure
of their conventional superiority, of their numbers

337
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that they only used nuclear weapons and
nuclear deterns to say, we will never

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have a first strike. We will
only use nuclear weapons if the Soviet Union

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is threatened. We will only do
it for the survival of the Rodin Now

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of the motherland of the Soviet Union. But Putin changed it because he saw

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that the Russian military that he had
was much smaller than the Soviet military,

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and that over time, if natal
fully mobilized, they would have the numerical

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advantage. So what Putin said did
is he changed the nuclear doctrines, not

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to defensively to use nuclear weapons in
case there's an attack against Russia or you

345
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know, or or or a missile
attack. But he said, I am

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using, we will use nuclear weapons
to protect Russia, our borders and our

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military activity. So now he's talking
about using it offensively to defend his conventional

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forces attacking some of his neighbors.
And that's what you're seeing now is more

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recent iterations of that. Before was
just a docrin. Now he's made specific

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threats. Since he started losing the
war in Ukraine, he's made more and

351
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more nuclear threats. And that's how
I kind of picture these new threats he's

352
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made about Belarus. Belarus is not
happy to have nuclear weapons, but they

353
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become pretty dependent on Russian troops as
a result of this conflict. But I

354
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hesitate to think I think he's more
willing to take the risk. He wants

355
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to make the threat and see if
he can get a cheap victory if he

356
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just mentions the word nuclear. There
are voices inside Europe and inside the United

357
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States that want us to give in
and to compromise just because he makes the

358
00:29:04.039 --> 00:29:07.079
threat. But I think we have
to realistically look at the threat and to

359
00:29:07.160 --> 00:29:11.519
say, is he really going to
do something about this? Now he's broken

360
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some of the treaties. He's acquired
some intermediate nuclear capabilities that were that were

361
00:29:18.400 --> 00:29:22.759
illegal that we're banned before. But
the United States has has kept an eye

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00:29:22.799 --> 00:29:27.279
on that and we've said how we
would respond to those violations, and we've

363
00:29:27.319 --> 00:29:33.839
acquired our own capabilities at that level, so we have some options if the

364
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President feels the need to max thing. But another distinction is what the administration

365
00:29:40.720 --> 00:29:44.920
response has been is one, he
makes a threat, but he has done

366
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nothing to move his actual nuclear forces, so there's there's no real action behind

367
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it. It is mostly just a
bluff, just a threat so far.

368
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And second, if he does start
moving his nuclear forces, the United States

369
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has responded. I think we will
respond, but we may not do it

370
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in kind. We have enough lethality
and precision in our conventional forces that if

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he used a tactical nuclear weapon.
We could respond and inflict a proportional response

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without nuclear weapon, but with using
just conventional explosives and are long range fired.

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You're talking about the threat in the
spending and what NATO is doing.

374
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During the Trump administration, there was
that big push, the very very public

375
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push, a push that have been
around for a while, but a very

376
00:30:37.720 --> 00:30:45.200
public push to have everybody meet the
two percent of GDP standard. And that

377
00:30:45.319 --> 00:30:52.079
GDP two percent standard it predated Trump
goes back to I believe the Obama administration

378
00:30:52.160 --> 00:30:56.279
or maybe even maybe the Bush forty
three administration, but have been a long

379
00:30:56.319 --> 00:30:59.960
standing for a while. People just
ignored it. So that two percent,

380
00:31:00.200 --> 00:31:10.079
relative compromise and relatively modest, was
based upon a worldview and assumptions that predated

381
00:31:10.519 --> 00:31:15.319
the Russia Ukrainian War and overall.
NATO dot MT for those that like to

382
00:31:15.359 --> 00:31:21.079
go to their official website, NATO
actually puts the numbers out there, and

383
00:31:21.200 --> 00:31:25.480
back in twenty fifteen, when you
look at that two percent, only three

384
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:30.160
nations spent more than two percent of
their GP on defense. That was Greece,

385
00:31:30.240 --> 00:31:33.640
the United States, in the UK, and as of twenty twenty two,

386
00:31:33.759 --> 00:31:37.759
they don't have the twenty twenty three
estimates out yet that number rose to

387
00:31:37.839 --> 00:31:45.400
ten Us, Greece, Poland,
all three of the Baltic republics, uk

388
00:31:45.720 --> 00:31:49.200
Croatia, Slovakia, And because I
like Romania, I gave them a point

389
00:31:49.279 --> 00:31:52.640
zero one sort two nine nine we'll
call it. I mean one nine nine,

390
00:31:52.640 --> 00:31:57.079
we'll call let's go ahead to two
percent. And there have been some

391
00:31:57.200 --> 00:32:04.440
calls that we need to look at
that again if that number does not reflect

392
00:32:05.400 --> 00:32:10.680
what we are seeing, what modern
warfare actually requires for you to do,

393
00:32:12.319 --> 00:32:15.680
if you're even a medium sized conflict, which is what you have going on

394
00:32:15.720 --> 00:32:22.680
in Ukraine right now relatively speaking.
And some have said that the new lower

395
00:32:22.759 --> 00:32:24.559
level needs we two and a half
percent. And if you look at that,

396
00:32:25.160 --> 00:32:30.319
that's only the Greek, only the
Greeks, the Americans in the polls

397
00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:34.000
as of twenty twenty two, we're
spending more than two and a half percent.

398
00:32:34.559 --> 00:32:39.160
Are you seeing any movement in NATO? I know a lot of those

399
00:32:39.279 --> 00:32:43.799
nations, the other two thirds of
the Alliance, there aren't about two percent.

400
00:32:43.880 --> 00:32:45.079
I think by the end of twenty
twenty three we'll see a lot more

401
00:32:45.119 --> 00:32:49.839
of them. It will reach that
standard. So we need to set a

402
00:32:49.920 --> 00:32:54.400
new standard for those members of the
Alliance of what they need to invest relative

403
00:32:54.480 --> 00:33:00.839
to their GDP in our collective attens. That's that's a good point. It's

404
00:33:00.920 --> 00:33:06.720
it's as you said, it's a
long standing debate both within the Alliance,

405
00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:09.759
within official circles and in the public. A couple of things. So one

406
00:33:09.799 --> 00:33:14.400
thing is you referred people to the
NATAL website. That's great. I think

407
00:33:14.440 --> 00:33:19.240
what you're looking at is the Secretary
General's report. Every year he put out

408
00:33:19.240 --> 00:33:22.480
a report. He just put up
the most recent one with the twenty twenty

409
00:33:22.480 --> 00:33:24.960
two numbers. He just put it
up in the last two weeks. So

410
00:33:25.039 --> 00:33:29.799
that's a good one for the most
recent data about the Alliance. And as

411
00:33:29.799 --> 00:33:31.720
you said, if you look at
the numbers, and they've got some good

412
00:33:31.799 --> 00:33:37.680
charts there, it pretty graphically and
visually tells you some good truths, part

413
00:33:37.680 --> 00:33:39.680
of which is what you said,
which is ten of the countries have now

414
00:33:39.759 --> 00:33:45.240
moved up to the two percent range. And if I could point out something

415
00:33:45.279 --> 00:33:50.759
else is almost all of the NATO
members, like over ninety percent of them

416
00:33:50.880 --> 00:33:54.519
have all increased defense spending because of
what Russia's been doing. And if you

417
00:33:54.599 --> 00:33:59.720
look back like you said to twenty
fifteen, while they didn't all meet two

418
00:33:59.720 --> 00:34:05.200
percent. Again, the majority of
NATO countries increase defense spending in twenty fifteen.

419
00:34:05.559 --> 00:34:08.480
So what that tells US is did
they do it because of Trump as

420
00:34:08.519 --> 00:34:12.519
president when he becomes president in twenty
sixty, Well, no, they it

421
00:34:12.679 --> 00:34:15.800
started the year before, and it
started because of what happened in twenty fourteen,

422
00:34:16.079 --> 00:34:20.480
which was the Russian invasion in Ukraine. And that is what drove the

423
00:34:20.559 --> 00:34:23.280
numbers then, and what is driving
the numbers now. It's amaking. It's

424
00:34:23.280 --> 00:34:28.480
the Russians who are making NATO countries
spend more on defense. Not so much.

425
00:34:28.519 --> 00:34:31.000
The Americans tell everybody it would be
a good idea, and we're seeing

426
00:34:31.039 --> 00:34:35.000
this in the current numbers and in
the future numbers. So, as you

427
00:34:35.079 --> 00:34:37.920
said, there are only a few
that are meeting two and a half,

428
00:34:37.360 --> 00:34:42.719
but there are several countries like Estonia
and others. The president of Estonia has

429
00:34:42.719 --> 00:34:47.960
says that they want to increase defense
spending to three percent, and the Polish

430
00:34:49.039 --> 00:34:52.400
government is thinking that they want to
increase defense spending at least to three percent,

431
00:34:52.599 --> 00:34:57.239
perhaps even two more. And that's
why there's news. And again they're

432
00:34:57.280 --> 00:35:00.079
doing it not because the Americans say
we didn't need to spend more. But

433
00:35:00.159 --> 00:35:06.480
because of the threat from Russia is
clearer to everybody that and so what there's

434
00:35:06.519 --> 00:35:12.000
a lot of talk about national leaders
inside the Alliance is that two percent needs

435
00:35:12.000 --> 00:35:15.599
to be looked at as the floor, not the ceiling. That two percent

436
00:35:15.639 --> 00:35:19.119
should be the minimum, but that
many allies, like you said before,

437
00:35:19.360 --> 00:35:22.679
especially the one's closest to the Russian
border, the one's more in danger and

438
00:35:23.079 --> 00:35:27.199
close to the threat, they need
to spend even more than two percent,

439
00:35:27.519 --> 00:35:30.760
and they're already starting to do.
You this though, we're seeing planned increases

440
00:35:30.800 --> 00:35:35.800
in the defense budget this year,
next year, the year after that to

441
00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:38.880
make it significantly, like I said, above two percent, above three percent

442
00:35:38.920 --> 00:35:44.800
even and we're seeing from major purchases
of new equipment, a lot more tanks

443
00:35:44.800 --> 00:35:49.119
are going to Poland, a lot
more fighters are being purchased inside the Alliance,

444
00:35:49.280 --> 00:35:52.400
a lot more air defense. But
you hit on one of the key

445
00:35:52.440 --> 00:36:00.320
things, which is do we have
the price the right militaries to defend and

446
00:36:00.400 --> 00:36:04.119
to fight against Russia. And what
we're seeing, like we talked about earlier,

447
00:36:04.159 --> 00:36:07.880
which is even when the subject comes
to precision guided munitions, the PGF

448
00:36:08.159 --> 00:36:15.280
precision guide immunitions, he's advanced targeting
missile systems that don't that have far less

449
00:36:15.320 --> 00:36:21.679
collateral manage damage and are much more
lethal and precise. We haven't build the

450
00:36:21.800 --> 00:36:27.199
right stockpile of them. Most of
the Alliance doesn't have them insufficient numbers because

451
00:36:27.239 --> 00:36:31.480
for the years before February of last
year, everybody was building their military on

452
00:36:31.639 --> 00:36:36.760
their peace time assumption. They weren't
really, so they was more being driven

453
00:36:36.800 --> 00:36:42.119
by accountants and the finance ministry than
they were by the actual ministries of defense.

454
00:36:42.159 --> 00:36:47.280
So even with among the US military, it this perceived shortage of munitions,

455
00:36:47.440 --> 00:36:52.599
of advanced munitions, of precision guide
immunitions that we're sending to help Ukraine

456
00:36:52.639 --> 00:36:57.400
to fight Russia. As you said, we don't seem in have enough for

457
00:36:57.519 --> 00:37:02.559
a medium conflict like Ukraine, is
not something for a direct great power conflict.

458
00:37:04.119 --> 00:37:07.320
But there are some of us who've
been saying this for a long time,

459
00:37:07.840 --> 00:37:12.800
because this shortage isn't you We've been
We've been We've not been spending enough

460
00:37:12.960 --> 00:37:16.039
on our munitions, on our equipment, on what we needed to stockpile.

461
00:37:16.480 --> 00:37:22.039
As far back as when we were
fighting ISIS Interia, we started to run

462
00:37:22.039 --> 00:37:25.920
out of PGMs against ISIS exterial and
ISIS wasn't shooting back. ISIS didn't have

463
00:37:25.920 --> 00:37:30.320
it in force, but yet we
had such a we had such a small

464
00:37:30.400 --> 00:37:32.760
number of our estimate of what we
needed, that we didn't have enough.

465
00:37:32.840 --> 00:37:38.079
And then later when when NATO moved
in Tripoli and started to drop precision got

466
00:37:38.079 --> 00:37:44.159
in missions there, even the small
air forces multinational air forces that were used

467
00:37:44.159 --> 00:37:49.440
in Libya, they started to run
out of national munitions against that, and

468
00:37:49.480 --> 00:37:52.920
we had and many of them had
to buy them from the United States or

469
00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:55.480
from from Germany, which was an
involved in directly. But it showed that

470
00:37:55.559 --> 00:38:00.800
even against these smaller threats, we
didn't have enough fly of the weapons and

471
00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:04.760
ammunition and equipment we need it.
So, of course, when you're when

472
00:38:04.760 --> 00:38:09.480
you're sending help to Ukraine fighting a
significant military like the two hundred thousands that

473
00:38:09.519 --> 00:38:15.320
they attack Ukraine with in twenty twenty
two, you're gonna not have sufficient numbers.

474
00:38:15.360 --> 00:38:19.599
And and so one of the things
one of the top priorities for the

475
00:38:19.599 --> 00:38:27.039
Secretary Defense and the US Department is
to negotiate better deals with our defense contractors.

476
00:38:27.079 --> 00:38:30.760
This is a top priority. This
is a key critical threat all across

477
00:38:30.800 --> 00:38:36.840
the Alliance and even natal as a
whole has been having multinational meeting and coming

478
00:38:36.960 --> 00:38:42.320
up with ways to approach European arms
manufacturers because all of the Alliance need to

479
00:38:42.440 --> 00:38:47.480
have more access to these stockpiles.
The headlines even this week of the greater

480
00:38:47.519 --> 00:38:52.239
the need to have more factories to
have greater output because they're just going through

481
00:38:52.320 --> 00:38:57.000
so many of them so rapidly.
In Ukraine, we're seeing things like up

482
00:38:57.000 --> 00:39:00.639
to five thousand artillery shells just one
day from the Russian being shot out.

483
00:39:01.000 --> 00:39:06.159
Both sides are going through them so
fat It's another reason of the logitical ward

484
00:39:06.199 --> 00:39:09.679
which the Russians they're losing. You
saw some headlines today that they're they're bringing

485
00:39:09.679 --> 00:39:15.440
out tanks from the Korean War and
even if far back in World War Two,

486
00:39:15.519 --> 00:39:19.239
bringing them out of off ball because
they're just running out of new equipment.

487
00:39:22.760 --> 00:39:28.599
Yeah. One or the other situations
we see is a lot of disinformation

488
00:39:28.760 --> 00:39:32.199
or the part of the Russians,
which people in the West seemed to buy

489
00:39:31.800 --> 00:39:38.400
that the Ukraine is not an independent
state, and they went through a whole

490
00:39:39.480 --> 00:39:45.920
demonization of the Ukrainian people. And
I noticed on the data website that they

491
00:39:46.119 --> 00:39:54.000
have begun to respond back to the
Russian disinformation campaigns and Unfortunately, unless the

492
00:39:54.199 --> 00:39:58.400
leaders of some of the countries themselves
speak out, that doesn't seem to get

493
00:39:58.480 --> 00:40:02.280
much notice. But top a little
bit about to fight against the folks who

494
00:40:02.519 --> 00:40:10.400
single adopted the idea that this is
Russian sphere of influence and NATO pushed Russia

495
00:40:10.440 --> 00:40:16.280
to do this because we expanded to
the to the east and let Poland and

496
00:40:16.599 --> 00:40:22.760
other countries in. Uh. You
know, is any event justify and is

497
00:40:22.800 --> 00:40:30.760
there a disinformation campaign anti disinformation campaign
that NATO can mount and be more successful

498
00:40:30.760 --> 00:40:35.039
with. That's a great topic.
It's a pretty much one. We could

499
00:40:35.079 --> 00:40:37.760
spend a whole hour on that alone. I'll try to hit some just key

500
00:40:37.840 --> 00:40:46.280
point on it. Um. Unfortunately, that narrative that that disinformation misinformation campaign

501
00:40:47.239 --> 00:40:52.960
work on. Two American presidents,
both Barack Obama and President Trump, believe

502
00:40:53.480 --> 00:40:59.519
that Ukraine was in Russi's sphere of
influence and that it wasn't a high enough

503
00:40:59.519 --> 00:41:01.519
priority for the United States. It
was a big deal for them, and

504
00:41:01.639 --> 00:41:07.119
that Russia was willing to pay the
cost to keep Ukraine on its side and

505
00:41:07.159 --> 00:41:09.320
it wasn't worth the United States in. And I think that was false.

506
00:41:09.760 --> 00:41:14.559
We should never have believed that,
we should never have a band did the

507
00:41:14.679 --> 00:41:20.360
largest democracy in Europe to Russian invasions. We shouldn't have let that may then

508
00:41:20.440 --> 00:41:23.440
become so vulnerable. We should have
provided more aids, certainly when they tried

509
00:41:23.679 --> 00:41:29.079
to seek NATAL membership at the Bucharest
summit in two thousand and eight, and

510
00:41:29.199 --> 00:41:35.760
certainly after the Russians invaded in twenty
fourteen. But what you've seen now and

511
00:41:35.960 --> 00:41:39.519
and and I'm going to get to
some of the the US and an Alliance

512
00:41:40.360 --> 00:41:45.519
counter at campaigns against it. But
we have to give credit first and foremost

513
00:41:46.079 --> 00:41:52.039
through the Lensy and his government and
the Ukrainian people. They have done a

514
00:41:52.119 --> 00:41:57.480
masterful job again because they had the
enthusiasm, because they had the will,

515
00:41:57.880 --> 00:42:01.360
because they had the patriotism that they
were willing to fight for their freedom not

516
00:42:01.519 --> 00:42:07.400
just in the trenches but also in
the airways, also inside the internet.

517
00:42:07.760 --> 00:42:12.760
And some of the more decisive victories
in this uh Information Worker have been won

518
00:42:12.840 --> 00:42:17.599
by the Ukrainian even though they don't
have the resources of Russia's multiple intelligence agencies

519
00:42:19.199 --> 00:42:22.239
um. But they they really made
a key thing. And one of the

520
00:42:22.639 --> 00:42:28.599
examples of that, like I said, the sheer bravery and symbolism of Zelensky

521
00:42:28.719 --> 00:42:32.320
staying and fighting with his people and
staying in Kiev and taking the threat of

522
00:42:32.840 --> 00:42:38.559
his direct appeals, these these these
teleconference, these virtual conferences, his speech

523
00:42:38.679 --> 00:42:45.760
to the to both chambers of Congress, first digitally and then in person.

524
00:42:45.119 --> 00:42:51.039
But he has given these major speeches
to the to the national parliaments and almost

525
00:42:51.159 --> 00:42:54.000
every natal capital. He has spoken
to them directly, and he changes his

526
00:42:54.119 --> 00:43:00.280
speech, he tailors it to the
national security communities of those countries. And

527
00:43:00.320 --> 00:43:04.679
he's been very PERSUADEI And then we've
seen all the visitors that have come to

528
00:43:04.760 --> 00:43:07.400
him and see him in his you
know, his military uniform, his private

529
00:43:07.519 --> 00:43:13.039
uniform in green, and he's out
there walking with the foreign officials and among

530
00:43:13.079 --> 00:43:17.480
the troops. And then you contract
that by Putin, who has isolated himself,

531
00:43:17.960 --> 00:43:24.360
and then these these almost comical pictures
of him sitting by these huge tables

532
00:43:24.400 --> 00:43:29.440
with his own people far away from
him, that he doesn't even trust them

533
00:43:29.480 --> 00:43:31.760
to get close to them. It's
just they've lost the narrative on that.

534
00:43:32.119 --> 00:43:37.960
And in addition that the Ukrainian people
have really been working in partnership, they've

535
00:43:38.159 --> 00:43:44.800
used the internet. A lot of
the military victories that Ukrainians have won were

536
00:43:44.800 --> 00:43:50.480
one because of intelligence victory because they
knew where the Russian forces were. And

537
00:43:50.599 --> 00:43:52.639
part of the reason why they knew
where Russian forces are because the Ukrainians are

538
00:43:52.639 --> 00:43:59.559
out there taking pictures and communicating information
back, integrating with the Ukrainian military in

539
00:43:59.679 --> 00:44:05.239
ways that none of the Western forces
have. And also the cyber campaigns that

540
00:44:05.320 --> 00:44:07.599
the Russians have weighed against them,
the Ukrainians have been fighting on that.

541
00:44:07.679 --> 00:44:13.920
So part of that is the success
of the Ukrainians in encountering this cis information

542
00:44:13.960 --> 00:44:17.440
campaign and that they've they've invested more
in their people. This is something that

543
00:44:17.519 --> 00:44:22.519
even the NATO countries, even the
United States, is now considering. In

544
00:44:22.559 --> 00:44:27.360
the last couple of weeks, you've
seen some headlines about the US government reconsidering

545
00:44:27.519 --> 00:44:30.760
how could we better use the private
sector? Are private citizens to fight these

546
00:44:30.800 --> 00:44:37.239
counterinformation campaigns? Other NATO countries,
excuse me, are more advanced than US.

547
00:44:37.159 --> 00:44:42.079
A lot of the Balls use their
private citizens. So you have the

548
00:44:42.239 --> 00:44:45.800
trolls coming out of the Saint Petersburg
roll factory and elsewhere in Russia putting up

549
00:44:45.840 --> 00:44:51.159
a lot of lives on the Internet
and in social media, and what the

550
00:44:51.199 --> 00:44:54.880
Balls have are what they call l
which is private citizens countering this information,

551
00:44:55.000 --> 00:45:00.400
countering these lives with actual data,
with actual proof, and there working in

552
00:45:00.440 --> 00:45:04.920
coordination with their government forces. We
haven't done that yet, but the United

553
00:45:04.920 --> 00:45:07.519
States that others are starting to think
of that. You've also got a Center

554
00:45:07.559 --> 00:45:14.079
of Excellence for Strategic Communication by NATO
inside Latvia that is doing a lot of

555
00:45:14.119 --> 00:45:17.400
good work of putting the narrative and
of identifying some of the lies and this

556
00:45:17.559 --> 00:45:22.320
information campaigns that the Russians are running. You also hid a center of hybrid

557
00:45:22.360 --> 00:45:28.000
activities in Finland. It's not a
NATO center, put Finland as a partner

558
00:45:28.239 --> 00:45:30.679
and both NATO and EU countries are
part of that, and they're doing another

559
00:45:30.679 --> 00:45:35.320
good job of countering this. So
there's a lot more success as being done

560
00:45:35.320 --> 00:45:37.800
by the West, and I think
it's one of the things that we're doing

561
00:45:38.239 --> 00:45:44.159
slightly better than we used to before. Again going back to pre February,

562
00:45:44.639 --> 00:45:49.239
where the President was actually willing to
use classified data and disclose some of it

563
00:45:49.480 --> 00:45:53.360
to tell the world that and to
tell specifically in the Ukrainians and Europeans the

564
00:45:53.440 --> 00:45:58.360
Russians are planning something bad. We're
trying to sign the flat flight on it

565
00:45:58.400 --> 00:46:02.960
so they will stop, and and
and actually take the risk of actually disclosing,

566
00:46:04.360 --> 00:46:07.480
making them a little bit more risky
use of classified information to get the

567
00:46:07.480 --> 00:46:12.119
tooth out and to try to use
it not after the war, but to

568
00:46:12.199 --> 00:46:16.920
prevent the war from taking places as
a whole. Yeah, I agree to

569
00:46:17.239 --> 00:46:24.840
a large extent the Ukrainians in the
Baltic Republics really has held almost really pre

570
00:46:24.960 --> 00:46:31.719
war, but especially on day one, a master class on infoofs and styops.

571
00:46:32.519 --> 00:46:37.920
Especially consider the limited resources they have, which I think drove a lot

572
00:46:37.960 --> 00:46:42.440
of their innovation in driving decisions down
to individual citizens who may or may not

573
00:46:42.480 --> 00:46:45.800
be getting a paycheck out of it. That's one of the big lessons I

574
00:46:45.920 --> 00:46:50.559
hope the larger powers will take from
that. You know, we can learn

575
00:46:50.599 --> 00:46:54.039
a lot fromations of one point three
million or five point five millions on things

576
00:46:54.039 --> 00:46:58.119
that can really make a difference on
the battlefield. And I think one of

577
00:46:58.159 --> 00:47:04.679
the other big both scot Into touched
on before a previous question is, lack

578
00:47:04.719 --> 00:47:10.079
of a better phrase, the industrial
policy, the weapons construction. We kind

579
00:47:10.079 --> 00:47:16.559
of ran off the fumes and inertia
and really stockpiles of the Cold War area

580
00:47:17.159 --> 00:47:23.480
and have lost a lot of the
ability to produce weapons at the amount that

581
00:47:23.599 --> 00:47:29.760
we're being shown is going to be
required. During the age of transformationalism,

582
00:47:29.760 --> 00:47:34.079
people kind of forgot how the artillery
can be from a numbers point of view.

583
00:47:34.559 --> 00:47:37.119
And I think it also is having
the alliance and look we really close

584
00:47:37.239 --> 00:47:40.599
at where it's giving a lot of
this weapons. I think the classic example

585
00:47:42.079 --> 00:47:45.000
we all saw at the beginning of
the war where there was old Soviet equipment

586
00:47:45.599 --> 00:47:52.320
that the Estodian attached from old howitzers
of one hundred two millimeters that they wanted

587
00:47:52.320 --> 00:47:55.360
to transfer to the Ukrainian. That
took weeks and weeks so that the Germans,

588
00:47:55.360 --> 00:48:00.519
who its former eastern the stock to
give them this proof. But even

589
00:48:00.559 --> 00:48:07.159
more than that is the reliance on
Swiss weapons manufacturers, where the Swiss they

590
00:48:07.199 --> 00:48:13.639
know you can't transfer it, so
that both in the ability and where the

591
00:48:13.800 --> 00:48:17.480
eye openers now people should light a
candle to some some people that are probably

592
00:48:17.519 --> 00:48:24.159
no longer with us, but you
can almost see the world larger blocks and

593
00:48:24.559 --> 00:48:31.039
their ammunition specifications. And when NATO
was first formed, the US had its

594
00:48:31.039 --> 00:48:36.039
own calibers of weapons. The French
had THEIRS, the British had THEIRS,

595
00:48:36.079 --> 00:48:39.519
the Germans were still using their World
War two era the Italians had their own

596
00:48:40.159 --> 00:48:47.159
and the NATO mile standard became not
just a standard for the Alliance. But

597
00:48:47.360 --> 00:48:52.519
one of the reasons Finland and Suite
have been be able to transition into the

598
00:48:52.559 --> 00:49:00.199
Alliance so easily is they converted over
to NATO mile standard as well and take

599
00:49:00.320 --> 00:49:07.079
that really successful program that is also
given to the Ukrainians a challenge. But

600
00:49:08.400 --> 00:49:15.920
do you see that being something other
nations outside the Alliance, most of which

601
00:49:15.960 --> 00:49:22.039
are NATO mill standard, that they
need to reevaluate how they're going to be

602
00:49:22.079 --> 00:49:27.840
able If they can't do it nationally, who are their friends that have the

603
00:49:27.920 --> 00:49:32.039
production ability that can get on what
they need when they need it, Because

604
00:49:32.199 --> 00:49:37.679
you can't make one hundred and fifty
five millimeter shall come out of one hundred

605
00:49:37.679 --> 00:49:44.599
and fifty two millimeters? Beryl,
very good points. I especially appreciate you

606
00:49:44.840 --> 00:49:49.039
you're calling the credit to some of
the former NATO leaders who made such a

607
00:49:49.079 --> 00:49:53.119
big emphasis on this, because it
is not easy to have similar equipment or

608
00:49:53.159 --> 00:49:58.440
equipment and ammunition that works for everybody, because everybody likes to have their own

609
00:49:58.519 --> 00:50:01.719
national weapons production, but on the
battlefield, you need everybody to be able

610
00:50:01.800 --> 00:50:07.000
to share them and use them together. And it's never been easy for These

611
00:50:07.000 --> 00:50:12.519
are called statagg standardization agreements were there
are so many, hundreds and thousands of

612
00:50:12.519 --> 00:50:16.280
them written over the decade, but
their main point was always to improve this

613
00:50:16.400 --> 00:50:22.400
key term, this key concept,
which is interoperability for the NATO armies to

614
00:50:22.480 --> 00:50:25.760
all be able to use each other's
stuff as needed once they're in the front

615
00:50:25.800 --> 00:50:31.039
line. And if it's a logistical
nightmare if you don't have kind of that

616
00:50:31.199 --> 00:50:37.599
interoperability. And that's why so it's
we benefit from the decades of experience of

617
00:50:37.719 --> 00:50:39.679
doing this. Um, we haven't
done it as well so much with some

618
00:50:39.760 --> 00:50:44.519
of the new technologies. Everybody kind
of wants to be very protective about the

619
00:50:44.639 --> 00:50:49.199
most super secret US technologies. But
every year NATO gets closer and closer to

620
00:50:49.320 --> 00:50:52.320
that standard. And it's one of
the advantages it has over its great power

621
00:50:52.400 --> 00:50:58.639
competitors, which is this this interoperability
not just within one of the great powers

622
00:50:58.719 --> 00:51:01.880
different military forces, but among all
the military forces of the alliance. And

623
00:51:02.000 --> 00:51:07.719
it adds power and weight to the
to the to the to the natal model

624
00:51:07.800 --> 00:51:14.400
which is stronger together. Um.
And it's basically we're living in an interconnected

625
00:51:14.480 --> 00:51:17.559
world. And and and Russia.
One of the things that's different about it

626
00:51:17.639 --> 00:51:22.679
in the Soviet Union is the Soviet
Union had its own ecosystem, its own

627
00:51:22.760 --> 00:51:28.880
logistical system, its own defense acquisition
system that was isolated and kept apart from

628
00:51:28.880 --> 00:51:32.639
the West. But now Russia doesn't
have that, and as a result of

629
00:51:32.719 --> 00:51:37.880
that, they are depending even our
competitors. Like Putin, his military is

630
00:51:38.480 --> 00:51:43.320
more dependent on the trade with the
rest of the world that even he realized

631
00:51:43.719 --> 00:51:49.960
so very early into this conflict.
Last year we saw that, excuse me,

632
00:51:51.039 --> 00:51:54.480
the two largest tank factories in Russia, and in fact, the first

633
00:51:54.519 --> 00:51:59.039
one, the largest tank tank factory
in Russia, is the largest tank factory

634
00:51:59.039 --> 00:52:01.679
in the world. They had to
shut down because they had most of the

635
00:52:01.800 --> 00:52:06.920
material there, but they lacked some
of the key components. And one of

636
00:52:06.960 --> 00:52:10.920
those key components is for modern battle
tanks, you need microchips. And even

637
00:52:12.000 --> 00:52:16.159
this large tank factory for RuSHA was
dependent on foreign sources for these microchips.

638
00:52:16.440 --> 00:52:22.679
And this is something that they wanted
to keep building tanks because of what they

639
00:52:22.719 --> 00:52:25.679
were losing on the battlefield, but
they just couldn't keep up the factories open.

640
00:52:28.400 --> 00:52:30.880
I think this was a wake up
call all around the world that that

641
00:52:31.079 --> 00:52:36.480
what everybody thinks, even though you're
the majority of your subcontractors. You only

642
00:52:36.519 --> 00:52:39.960
need one key component to be internationally
based, and you might be deprived of

643
00:52:40.039 --> 00:52:45.159
that component for your key system.
So one of the ways that some of

644
00:52:45.199 --> 00:52:49.760
the Natal countries are doing about it, President Biden has just gotten the Chip

645
00:52:49.840 --> 00:52:53.280
Act side and it's trying to bring
back more semiconductor productive here to the United

646
00:52:53.400 --> 00:52:59.440
States. I think there needs to
be more sharing and joint development and a

647
00:52:59.599 --> 00:53:06.960
network among the democracies for key technological
components like semiconductors, that we that we

648
00:53:07.480 --> 00:53:10.159
should be dependent on each other,
not on the Chinese, which have almost

649
00:53:10.199 --> 00:53:15.159
a monopoly on this. So we
need to be more dependent, share more

650
00:53:15.280 --> 00:53:21.519
independent production among the Europeans, among
the Asian democracies, among the Pacific democracies,

651
00:53:21.760 --> 00:53:23.559
and a certainly of course with us
in Canada, that we should be

652
00:53:23.599 --> 00:53:29.199
dependent on each other as a democratic
system and not on some of these mineral

653
00:53:29.320 --> 00:53:34.199
resources, these rare earth that we
need for for semiconductors that China is just

654
00:53:34.320 --> 00:53:38.320
going around the world kind of monopolize. One other way of a Natal country

655
00:53:38.360 --> 00:53:43.360
going around it is the case of
Poland. Poland tried to buy as many

656
00:53:43.559 --> 00:53:46.599
M one tanks as it can from
the United states it did, it bought

657
00:53:46.679 --> 00:53:52.400
a couple of hundreds of them before. It has requested and gotten approval for

658
00:53:52.840 --> 00:53:57.599
another batch of M one. But
in addition to that, they're they're still

659
00:53:57.639 --> 00:54:00.599
getting ready for the next war for
trying to prevent it. That they've bought

660
00:54:00.639 --> 00:54:05.559
a significant number of tanks from South
Korea. This is the first time you

661
00:54:05.679 --> 00:54:09.920
see a major weapon system being purchased
by a European power from an Asian power,

662
00:54:10.239 --> 00:54:15.239
and if because they're trying to diversify
your supply and you're trying to get

663
00:54:15.280 --> 00:54:17.079
access to more of this equipment that
they need. And I think you're going

664
00:54:17.119 --> 00:54:21.639
to see more of this, not
less as other European countries, as there's

665
00:54:21.679 --> 00:54:25.440
a shortage of the high end systems
and not everybody can produce them enough for

666
00:54:25.559 --> 00:54:30.280
their own national needs, let alone
for the for the Alliance needs. I

667
00:54:30.400 --> 00:54:35.559
think you're going to see more European
countries looking at other democracies, at other

668
00:54:35.639 --> 00:54:40.519
acquisitions system and and and and really
diversifying the type of equipment that you're going

669
00:54:40.599 --> 00:54:45.480
to be seeing on NATO's armies in
the future. Well, one of those

670
00:54:45.559 --> 00:54:51.960
countries that it's interesting as Switzerland.
I see that Switzerland's defense head has met

671
00:54:52.039 --> 00:54:58.039
with the NATO people, and there
seems to be they got a little chastise

672
00:54:58.199 --> 00:55:04.480
because or maybe they were incurred to
provide some of the stuff they the ammunition

673
00:55:04.559 --> 00:55:08.039
and stuff for the equipment that has
maidenced by the Swiss UH And you know,

674
00:55:08.800 --> 00:55:14.960
is this a chance for the Swiss
to reapproach NATO and become good good

675
00:55:15.039 --> 00:55:19.039
guys? And I also wonder about
Turkey, which has a fairly substantial defense

676
00:55:19.119 --> 00:55:23.360
industry, you know, and can
we rely on Turkey to help counter the

677
00:55:24.119 --> 00:55:29.480
help that Russia is getting from Iran
and UH and China or is this UH

678
00:55:30.440 --> 00:55:34.199
is our southern flank a little exposure
by by the current regime in Turkey.

679
00:55:35.320 --> 00:55:39.159
A good question. The standards should
be different because Switzerland is a nine A

680
00:55:39.239 --> 00:55:44.880
line country, it is not a
NATO member UM it does spend significant amount,

681
00:55:45.199 --> 00:55:51.159
it's close to the two percent because
it wants to protect its independence versus

682
00:55:51.320 --> 00:55:55.440
Turkey, which is a NATO compete
but even always consisted with natal polity.

683
00:55:55.719 --> 00:55:59.800
And one of the key things we
see here that I think is with con

684
00:56:00.400 --> 00:56:05.039
between Cicierland and Turkey and others,
is inside their government and even inside our

685
00:56:05.079 --> 00:56:08.920
own government, you have what are
called economic leaders, and they are making

686
00:56:09.039 --> 00:56:15.880
economic arguments, So why you want
to settle things as quickly and as quietly

687
00:56:15.880 --> 00:56:20.880
with Russia as possible so that they
can make economic profits off of more trade

688
00:56:20.920 --> 00:56:25.519
with Russia versus you have. It
was the Swiss defense minister that went to

689
00:56:25.639 --> 00:56:31.199
MEATO headquarters this past week versus the
national security experts in Turkey that they are

690
00:56:31.440 --> 00:56:36.440
much more aware of Russia as a
threat. And it wasn't not too long

691
00:56:36.519 --> 00:56:39.360
ago, just a few years ago, that the Turkish Air Force itself shot

692
00:56:39.480 --> 00:56:45.920
down a Russian fighter plane that had
violated their their border and was inter active

693
00:56:46.000 --> 00:56:52.599
inside Turkish airslate. So if you
have some civilian and economic leaders that want

694
00:56:52.639 --> 00:56:57.800
to view they just want to see
the working glasses have full. Let's just

695
00:56:57.920 --> 00:57:00.880
have trade, lestonom economics. There's
a lot of money to be made here.

696
00:57:00.199 --> 00:57:05.079
And then I think you have the
more sober. The ones we should

697
00:57:05.079 --> 00:57:07.519
be listing to are the national security
experts, the defense ministries that say,

698
00:57:07.559 --> 00:57:12.159
hey, hold on a minute,
this isn't just about trade, this isn't

699
00:57:12.199 --> 00:57:15.000
just about economics. It's also about
security. Can we trust these people?

700
00:57:15.360 --> 00:57:20.119
Should we be investing in their economies
when they could be when they're going to

701
00:57:20.199 --> 00:57:23.480
be using that money to fund the
military and use that military against others and

702
00:57:23.639 --> 00:57:29.119
possibly against ourselves. And I frame
it in this way because I think we've

703
00:57:29.159 --> 00:57:32.559
started to be a similar shift with
our attitude towards China. For many years

704
00:57:32.639 --> 00:57:38.039
after the post Cold War world the
leaders of our China policy were, Hey,

705
00:57:38.320 --> 00:57:43.400
the trade is good for everybody that's
invest in China. That's a market

706
00:57:43.440 --> 00:57:45.480
of a billion people. We've got
to be able to sell for that large

707
00:57:45.599 --> 00:57:51.360
market, and it makes it doesn't
make economic sense for them to compete against

708
00:57:51.480 --> 00:57:52.920
us, to try to harm us, because they would be you know,

709
00:57:53.000 --> 00:57:58.639
cutting off their economic notes to fite
their faith. That made economic sense.

710
00:57:58.960 --> 00:58:01.760
But what we've seen which China is
it didn't make realistic sense. It didn't

711
00:58:01.800 --> 00:58:07.039
make political sense because time and time
again China has made decisions not just with

712
00:58:07.199 --> 00:58:10.719
COVID, but with other things,
with Taiwan and with the South China.

713
00:58:10.760 --> 00:58:15.360
See, it makes political decisions that
hurt its trade and it hurts it's involvement

714
00:58:15.440 --> 00:58:19.559
with the rest of the world.
But that's the cost that the Chinese Communist

715
00:58:19.599 --> 00:58:23.280
Party is willing to pay um and
in order to promote its agenda, in

716
00:58:23.440 --> 00:58:31.199
order to promote it's aggressive expansion of
China inside the Indo Paycalm region. I

717
00:58:31.239 --> 00:58:36.039
think that's one of the unfurling events
that we're going to see from this,

718
00:58:36.239 --> 00:58:40.159
this conflict that people are finally for
a lot of people have gotten religion on

719
00:58:40.280 --> 00:58:46.920
the fact that the liance security often
expands well passed strictly war. Gaining this

720
00:58:47.440 --> 00:58:51.880
piece of equipment against that piece of
equipment, you got to tie in the

721
00:58:52.000 --> 00:58:55.039
your economics factors as well. And
I'll tell you Georgia, Now that's a

722
00:58:55.159 --> 00:59:00.559
great point. Yeah, sorry,
oh please, a great point. And

723
00:59:00.599 --> 00:59:02.239
before we close, I just wanted
to build up that you just saw a

724
00:59:02.480 --> 00:59:08.199
great visual representation of that. You
had you had she the President of China

725
00:59:08.360 --> 00:59:13.719
visiting Moscow and supporting Russia. But
you also had for the first time ever,

726
00:59:14.039 --> 00:59:19.519
the Prime Minister of Japan visiting Kia
because they see that it's not just

727
00:59:19.679 --> 00:59:23.719
about Russia versus Ukraine. It's about
whether the international community will stand up to

728
00:59:23.800 --> 00:59:29.639
aggressor today and maybe Russia, but
to the Japanese they know tomorrow and maybe

729
00:59:29.800 --> 00:59:32.920
China. So at the same time, you had two Asian leaders of powerful

730
00:59:34.000 --> 00:59:37.320
nation, each picking aside because they
knew that the war that is going on

731
00:59:37.440 --> 00:59:42.719
in Ukraine. Now if we don't
do it right, could lead to worst

732
00:59:42.800 --> 00:59:47.400
conflicts in Asia in the future.
Yeah, that was that was a great

733
00:59:47.519 --> 00:59:52.320
visual and at that level of deflomacy, timing doesn't happen by accident. So

734
00:59:52.440 --> 00:59:59.599
that was a very strong point by
Japan and hey, before we before we

735
00:59:59.679 --> 01:00:02.519
closed things up here for the listeners
that they'd like to keep track of you,

736
01:00:02.719 --> 01:00:07.159
where's a good place for them to
look out for your writing and you

737
01:00:07.239 --> 01:00:08.760
haven't you planned down the road that
we should definitely keep an eye on.

738
01:00:09.920 --> 01:00:15.639
Thank you appreciate that. You can
best follow me on Twitter at NATO Source,

739
01:00:15.559 --> 01:00:21.599
where I provide regular and almost daily
updates on what's going on the key

740
01:00:21.679 --> 01:00:23.880
NATO news and around the world.
So if you want to, if you're

741
01:00:23.920 --> 01:00:28.639
interested in what's going on with the
Alliance and how things are going with Russia,

742
01:00:28.920 --> 01:00:31.480
that's a good source of information.
It's followed by a lot of senior

743
01:00:31.599 --> 01:00:37.840
leaders both here and in the US
and in Europe. And also I'm working

744
01:00:37.880 --> 01:00:42.320
on a piece now about sort of
the significance of NATO's Article five and the

745
01:00:42.440 --> 01:00:46.079
one time it was invoked. It
was never invoked during the Cold War.

746
01:00:46.480 --> 01:00:52.920
It was invoked the day after nine
to eleven, the Alliance invoked the collective

747
01:00:52.960 --> 01:00:57.079
defense to protect the US, not
protect not to protect the Europeans. So

748
01:00:57.480 --> 01:01:00.599
I'm kind of look into that and
though some of the missions miss assumptions about

749
01:01:00.679 --> 01:01:05.400
that and some of the misinformation about
that, and how what the what the

750
01:01:05.519 --> 01:01:07.880
real truth of what happened that day? How I can carry over to the

751
01:01:08.039 --> 01:01:15.320
next time Article five is discussed in
natal headquarters. Perfect well, we look

752
01:01:15.400 --> 01:01:20.239
forward to that. And thank you
again for coming to visit a singer today.

753
01:01:21.199 --> 01:01:22.880
Yeah, Jory's been a very fast
hour. Thank you, Thank you

754
01:01:23.039 --> 01:01:29.920
very much, my pleasure. Thank
you for your excellent questions, and thank

755
01:01:29.920 --> 01:01:32.400
you everybody for joining us for another
edition in mid Rats and until next time,

756
01:01:32.400 --> 01:01:46.719
I hope you have a great day
to day. Cheers to marry me.

757
01:01:47.079 --> 01:02:07.800
I'm blames, You're the team.
It's a long way to dippery It's

758
01:02:07.840 --> 01:02:15.119
a long way to go. It's
a long way to Dippernanny, to the

759
01:02:15.280 --> 01:02:25.840
greenest gy I know. Don't buy
a Condell well, listen, Swell.

760
01:02:28.119 --> 01:02:34.800
It's a long long way to dipper
It. But my life like the