1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,519
You're listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival
Network, where you get valuable information you

2
00:00:05,599 --> 00:00:10,880
just can't find anywhere else to thrive
in today's trying times. You need the

3
00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:17,359
Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survival Network dot com

4
00:00:17,359 --> 00:00:24,039
and get your free newsletter in gift
Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

5
00:00:27,519 --> 00:00:32,320
Welcome you are listening to watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

6
00:00:32,399 --> 00:00:36,399
Carrie lets Well, in these times, you know, we're facing lots of

7
00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,159
uncertainty. Are we heading for a
recession? Are we heading for a global

8
00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:44,840
financial meltdown? Is the dollar going
to blow up? Will there'll be a

9
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:50,159
new reserve currency? What about crypto? All of these things? Well,

10
00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:54,439
what we're talking about here is a
new book that you need to get called

11
00:00:54,479 --> 00:01:00,600
The Uncertainty Solution, How to Invest
with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown.

12
00:01:00,119 --> 00:01:06,439
I guess so the author is John
M. Jennings with us. Now,

13
00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,040
John, you're always to some extent
investing in the face of uncertainty.

14
00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:17,799
It's just that the brain, I
guess. Our human condition is we look

15
00:01:17,879 --> 00:01:23,719
for normalcy, and therefore we've got
this thing called normalcy bias. But in

16
00:01:23,799 --> 00:01:27,519
times like today, there is no
such thing as normalcy bias, because nothing

17
00:01:27,599 --> 00:01:33,439
is normal anymore. So you've got
to have an approach, a discipline.

18
00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:38,760
How do you invest in uncertain times? Yeah, but you're exactly right.

19
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,640
It's always uncertain. I mean,
there's this old adage says now is the

20
00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:48,040
hardest time to invest whenever here now
is right. So when things are going

21
00:01:48,079 --> 00:01:52,200
gangbusters in the economy and the stock
market, people are worried about, oh,

22
00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:53,879
you know, my investing. When
things are too high, things are

23
00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,400
too good, when things are bad
or they can continue to get bad.

24
00:01:59,319 --> 00:02:00,760
And then, yeah, you have
uncertainty. You have you know Russia and

25
00:02:00,879 --> 00:02:06,719
Ukraine, um, other Joe of
political issues, you have you know,

26
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:12,159
the leftover effects of the pandemic.
You have inflation. We had our hopefully

27
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,120
you know, banking crisis in the
rearview mirror. But but who knows.

28
00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:19,439
So yeah, tons, tons of
uncertainty right now. But to your point,

29
00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:23,879
that's always the case, and it's
hard to find what normal is.

30
00:02:23,199 --> 00:02:28,080
Um. So yeah, in terms
of in terms of uncertainty. The reason

31
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:34,719
why we hate uncertainty so much as
a species is because we've evolved to be

32
00:02:35,879 --> 00:02:40,800
pattern recognizing machines, right, And
the reason this is the case is if

33
00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:46,919
you can detect a pattern, it
gave us historically back in the day,

34
00:02:46,319 --> 00:02:53,680
a survival advantage, right, because
a pattern will tell you what's going to

35
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,879
happen in the future. If it's
a persistent pattern, this is a huge

36
00:02:57,879 --> 00:03:01,439
survival advantage. You know, is
that you know is that Russell the bushes

37
00:03:01,479 --> 00:03:07,199
does a pretend predator or prey.
You know what is the migration patterns of

38
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:13,240
my own prey, whether patterns or
those berries nutritious or poisonous. All these

39
00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,960
things gave us a survival advantage.
And so what happens is when we cannot

40
00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:21,199
recognize a pattern, we get anxious, we get worried. It actually triggers

41
00:03:21,199 --> 00:03:23,599
our fight or flight response, and
we get all keyed up and we may

42
00:03:23,599 --> 00:03:30,080
not even realize it's happening because of
uncertainty. Then when we resolve the uncertainty,

43
00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,840
the opposite reaction happens, the calming
effect happens. We actually get a

44
00:03:34,879 --> 00:03:38,919
dose of dopamine. It feels good. So it leads us with the following,

45
00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:44,800
you know, dichotomy. We don't
like uncertainty and we want to resolve

46
00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,960
it, but when we resolve it, it feels good. So we are

47
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,639
constantly looking to to feel good.
So it's part of the reason why some

48
00:03:52,639 --> 00:03:55,919
people like to gamble. Right,
you create uncertainty, then you have that

49
00:03:55,919 --> 00:03:59,479
that dose of dopamine. It comes
when it's resolved. It's why we don't

50
00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,520
like to know the Indians necessarily of
sporting events or books or movies, right

51
00:04:03,759 --> 00:04:09,000
because we want to have that bit
of uncertainty that's not threatening that we get

52
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:13,759
to results. So it's it's it's
pretty complex, but the mean takeaway is

53
00:04:14,159 --> 00:04:16,759
we don't like when we can't recognize
a pattern, which is really the definition

54
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:24,519
of uncertainty. Okay, so basically
we've evolved, we're modern man, but

55
00:04:24,879 --> 00:04:30,959
all of the vestigial all of the
evolutionary things that got us here are the

56
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,800
things that are tripping you up now. So I have that, right,

57
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:39,319
absolutely, we are we are modern. Are ancient brains living in a modern

58
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:45,480
world, right, Yes, So
they're constantly triggered by non threatening patterns in

59
00:04:45,519 --> 00:04:46,920
the great scheme of things, things
like you know, the stock market and

60
00:04:46,959 --> 00:04:49,800
the economy and things. I mean, they matter, but it's not being

61
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:56,040
threatened like being chased by a saber
tooth tiger. Right. So, but

62
00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:01,160
we're being chased by a saber tooth
the central bank? Right, yeah,

63
00:05:01,199 --> 00:05:06,199
exactly. So so how do you
avoid the saber tooth and the central bank?

64
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,879
Yeah, well I'm not sure we
can. I mean, like gets

65
00:05:09,879 --> 00:05:14,759
some more you know, tactical and
investment in investing uh anthems, you know,

66
00:05:14,959 --> 00:05:17,680
really really the thing to do when
faced with uncertainly there's a few things

67
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,279
to do. So instead of doing
what we usually do, which is to

68
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,439
get keyed up and and and what
we do is we you know, we

69
00:05:25,759 --> 00:05:30,600
grasped the first explanation we can find
that explains this supposed pattern we're seeing or

70
00:05:30,639 --> 00:05:34,959
the lack of pattern. We we
we grasped the first explanation and we defend

71
00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:39,720
it um. You know, we
turn to experts for predictions of the future.

72
00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:41,759
Right, So, like if I
were to say, right now,

73
00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,720
what's going to happen with monetary policy
and what's going to happen with interest rates?

74
00:05:46,079 --> 00:05:47,680
Like your listeners would be like,
oh that's great, Like you would

75
00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:53,000
you would feel this sense of calmness
or pleasure by having somebody And I could

76
00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,120
give all sorts of data and reasons
why I was giving my opinion, but

77
00:05:56,519 --> 00:05:59,759
you know what, what study after
study has shown and probably experienced this and

78
00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:03,920
rey Is, experts, whether economists
or investment managers or even political experts,

79
00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:10,959
are atrocious at predicting what's going to
happen in the future. So really it's

80
00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,040
really hard. But turning off those
expert opinions of what's going to happen in

81
00:06:15,079 --> 00:06:18,879
the future is so important to successful
investing. Like a lot of people think,

82
00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:20,720
well, you need to know what's
going to happen in the future to

83
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:26,240
invest well, and actually the opposite
is true, because if you start with

84
00:06:26,519 --> 00:06:30,959
you can't know. Therefore, thinking
you know doesn't make you make better decisions.

85
00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:34,800
Acknowledging your ignorance about the future and
others allows you to invest in a

86
00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:40,879
way that you know. It gives
you a margin of safety or a moote

87
00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,279
and you know, if anything,
you can say, Okay, what happens

88
00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,879
if you know, inflation continues to
run high, what happens if it comes

89
00:06:46,879 --> 00:06:51,000
back to a reasonable level, And
then maybe what happens if we actually tip

90
00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:55,879
into deflation. There's some people that
think that over the next eighteen months deflation

91
00:06:56,000 --> 00:07:00,480
as as big of a risk as
you know, continuing high inflation and structure

92
00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,600
your investments thinking I don't know.
Here's a range of potential outcomes. How

93
00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:08,079
am I gonna you know, and
you know, how am I going to

94
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,480
wait these things? How I can
invest based on that? So, you

95
00:07:11,519 --> 00:07:14,759
know, we find that that's really
a good way to go is turn off

96
00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,240
those those expert opinions because they're just
not you know, it's just not possible

97
00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,399
to be correct. And like when
you hear an expert give their views of

98
00:07:21,399 --> 00:07:25,519
what inflation is going to be your
monetary policy, I mean, go back

99
00:07:25,519 --> 00:07:28,720
and say, what were they saying
a year ago or what were they saying

100
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:30,759
kind of the you know, going
into twenty twenty two. Did they say

101
00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,879
that they thought that inflation was going
to spiked? You know what it was

102
00:07:33,959 --> 00:07:39,959
eight point seven percent? You know, did they predict that the Ukraine War

103
00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,519
would happen? And if so,
you know, fourteen months later or whatever

104
00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,519
it is, it'd still be going
on. I mean no, of course

105
00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,079
not. So why listen to them
now? Yeah, well that reminds me

106
00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:55,800
what Peter Lynch said to taking the
walk down the main street instead of Wall

107
00:07:55,839 --> 00:07:58,920
Street. And he always said,
yes, the dumb money isn't dumb until

108
00:07:58,959 --> 00:08:01,680
it listens to the small money.
Yeah, yeah, right, yeah,

109
00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:05,079
And to your point, you get
a lot of people you know, talking

110
00:08:05,079 --> 00:08:07,480
their book, you know, so
uh and I don't mean like their book

111
00:08:07,519 --> 00:08:11,199
that they've written, but their book, their book of investments, right,

112
00:08:11,279 --> 00:08:13,360
So yeah, so it's really it's
really hard to set that aside. And

113
00:08:13,519 --> 00:08:16,959
really the premise of my book in
addition to you know, here's how we

114
00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:24,000
usually respond to uncertainty and we hate
it is what to do instead is acknowledge

115
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:28,079
that you're feeling uncertain. So that's
really you know, a skill that you

116
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,120
can develop. Say I'm going to
sit in my discomfort, so I'm going

117
00:08:31,199 --> 00:08:33,480
to accept it. I'm gonna say
I'm just going to feel uncertain. And

118
00:08:33,519 --> 00:08:39,559
then what my book mainly hits on
our thirty five mental models, So mental

119
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,039
models of model that you keep in
your head about how the world works,

120
00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,799
and you want to develop mental models
they're actually based in reality, right,

121
00:08:46,879 --> 00:08:50,480
And to create and what Charlie Munger, you know, Warren buff As business

122
00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:56,399
partner, says, who's the champion
of disconcept is you need eighty or ninety

123
00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,559
of them that will carry most of
the freight in making you what he calls

124
00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,600
a world wise person. And you
know which ones to pull out when.

125
00:09:03,159 --> 00:09:05,480
So you create this lattice work of
mental model. So I'll tell you of

126
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:09,559
one of the key you know,
investmental models they discuss my book is one

127
00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:16,600
that's called the stock Market is not
the Economy. And what really boils down

128
00:09:16,639 --> 00:09:22,000
to is this is that the stock
market moves in advance of what the economy

129
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:26,159
is going to do. It's not
vice versa. So what happens a lot

130
00:09:26,159 --> 00:09:31,399
of times with investors if they look
at things like, okay, we're maybe

131
00:09:31,399 --> 00:09:35,919
injuring a recession, or unemployment is
going to go up, or you know,

132
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:39,960
this is what's going to happen with
you know, inflation or other economic

133
00:09:39,039 --> 00:09:43,879
metrics GDP growth. They look at
those sort of things and then say,

134
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,120
I'm going to use that to inform
my investment decisions, when the opposite is

135
00:09:48,159 --> 00:09:50,000
true. The stock market doesn't always
get it right. It's you know,

136
00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:54,519
it's you know, Paul Samuelson equipped
that the stock market is predicted nine to

137
00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,879
the last five recessions, right,
But the stock market doesn't always predict it,

138
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:05,120
but it moves in advance of what
the economy does. So you can't

139
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:09,159
use the economy to inform your investment
decisions. And that is incredibly freeing as

140
00:10:09,159 --> 00:10:13,720
an investor. It can take away
a lot of the worry and then certainty

141
00:10:13,799 --> 00:10:16,960
about what's going to happen in the
economy, because even if you knew,

142
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,919
it wouldn't tell you when you should
invest. And an example of when we

143
00:10:22,039 --> 00:10:26,159
use this recently was in you know, March of twenty twenty, so when

144
00:10:26,159 --> 00:10:30,279
COVID was hitting, we'd have clients
that were very concerned understandably about COVID.

145
00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,120
So this pandemic is going to be, you know, sweeping the globes would

146
00:10:33,159 --> 00:10:35,120
be in the US, you know, what should we do? And we're

147
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:39,120
like, well, we know a
few things, like as things as entire

148
00:10:39,159 --> 00:10:43,919
industry shut down, as economy slows. And you remember that that chart even

149
00:10:43,919 --> 00:10:46,600
the Wall Street Journal in New York
Times that showed unemployment claims, you know

150
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:48,320
they usually run around two hundred thousand. That jumped to like kind of like

151
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:54,200
four million or something that we just
it was just mind boggling. But we

152
00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:58,080
use that investment mental model with our
clients to say, the economy does not

153
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:05,440
predict the stock market. Therefore,
we should not make investment changes based on

154
00:11:05,519 --> 00:11:07,559
what we think the economy is going
to do, because even if we knew,

155
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,759
and we do know some things,
it's going to get worse. It

156
00:11:11,799 --> 00:11:13,679
doesn't tell you when the stock market
is going to do. So we actually

157
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:18,919
had a lot of clients that rebalanced
from bonds into stocks in March, and

158
00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,759
then you know, the stock market
rebounded way in advance of things getting better.

159
00:11:22,799 --> 00:11:24,320
We saw that a new eight oh
nine. You know, it happens

160
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,639
time and time and time again.
And so that's an example of like one

161
00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,879
of the mental models of the book. And you can see how like if

162
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:35,399
you if you study this, if
you you internalize it as an investor,

163
00:11:35,399 --> 00:11:37,600
how it can really help you in
the face of uncertainty because you say,

164
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,200
we have all this a certainty,
uncertainty in the economy, and you could

165
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,120
say, I don't need to know
what the economy is going to do,

166
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,200
because if I did know, it
wouldn't tell me what the stock market is

167
00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,919
going to do. Right, So
that's just one of the you know,

168
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,799
the thirty five mental models in my
book. Okay, I'll buy it.

169
00:11:56,519 --> 00:12:01,639
I've heard it said that when you're
thinking of an investing you should not be

170
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:07,840
looking at the news because it's the
cycles that determine the news, not the

171
00:12:07,919 --> 00:12:15,080
news that determines the cycles. Do
you buy that don't just survive? The

172
00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:20,639
financial survival Network. Torque Resources is
an exploration company establishing a portfolio of premier

173
00:12:20,799 --> 00:12:26,240
copper gold early stage projects in Chile. Torques management and technical teams have a

174
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:31,440
strong track record of raising capital,
discovery and monetization of exploration successes. The

175
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:37,240
company's Margarita copper gold project is located
within the prolific coastal Cordillera Belt in Chile,

176
00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,960
which hosts some of the world's largest
and most profitable copper minds. The

177
00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:46,279
Margarita project possesses excellent discovery potential for
a major copper discovery due to the strength

178
00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:50,480
of the alteration system, large scale
magnetic targets, and the presence of copper

179
00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:54,559
oxide mineralization. Drilling is anticipated to
begin in Q three of this year.

180
00:12:54,639 --> 00:12:58,039
Torque trades in Canada under t O
r Q and on the OTC under t

181
00:12:58,639 --> 00:13:03,759
R B MF. To learn more, go to Torque Resources dot com.

182
00:13:03,799 --> 00:13:11,159
That's Torque Resources dot com. This
is the financial survival network. The information

183
00:13:11,279 --> 00:13:16,679
you need to throw now more than
I do. I do, And it's

184
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,840
it's interesting. Um, I wrote
an artist and I have a section of

185
00:13:20,919 --> 00:13:24,559
my book on on you know,
market cycles, because that's obviously you know

186
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,600
some very important mental models around market
cycles. And one of them to know

187
00:13:28,159 --> 00:13:31,120
is, you know Hyman Minsky,
who was an economist that died nine six,

188
00:13:31,519 --> 00:13:35,360
but moment, the Minsky moment.
So the Minsky moment is a huge

189
00:13:35,399 --> 00:13:39,159
thing to know about. And you
know, really, I think the big

190
00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:46,240
takeaway from Minsky is it's it's the
financial instability hypothesis is that sometimes recessions or

191
00:13:46,279 --> 00:13:50,519
market cycles are triggered by external shocks, like you know, the pandemic,

192
00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:54,440
for instance, was an external shock, or the oil crisis back in the

193
00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:58,240
seventies was an external shock. But
often the economy shows the seeds of its

194
00:13:58,279 --> 00:14:03,120
own destruct by actions that are taking
you know, by risk seeking, you

195
00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:07,480
know, businesses and investors and things. And so really, if you step

196
00:14:07,519 --> 00:14:13,320
back, times of seeming stability end
up being the riskiest time to invest,

197
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,519
and the times of the greatest instability
because of the cycle end up being the

198
00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:24,200
best times to invest, even though
the opposite feels true. Right, So

199
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,960
the thing to keep in mind with
the the you know, i'll call it

200
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:31,799
the Minsky cycle as financial and stability
hypothesis is, you know, you'll see

201
00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:35,279
things that are happening in the economy
where people are taking on you know,

202
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,919
more risk and you know um risk, and we saw it with the banking

203
00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:43,159
system. So all these banks took
on an incredible amount of interest rate risk

204
00:14:43,279 --> 00:14:48,200
by investing in treasury securities and you
know, with mismass maturities, with with

205
00:14:48,279 --> 00:14:52,039
their deposits, you know, taking
more and more risk that was uncompensated.

206
00:14:52,159 --> 00:14:56,759
Right, so they were getting you
know, one and a half two percent

207
00:14:56,159 --> 00:15:01,320
yields on these bonds. Uh,
you having their money locked up and not

208
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,879
being compensated for it. And really, what the Minsky cycle tells you as

209
00:15:03,919 --> 00:15:09,120
you start seeing those things is that
there will be a moment where it has

210
00:15:09,159 --> 00:15:13,960
a huge catalytic result. And we
saw that with bank And again maybe we're

211
00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,399
through that with what the you know, the FDIC and the FEND the Treasury

212
00:15:16,399 --> 00:15:20,559
have done. But we don't know
what those actions will cause in the future,

213
00:15:20,679 --> 00:15:24,879
right, you know, they put
out maybe they put out this fire,

214
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:28,159
but it's like suppressing you know,
it's like suppressing force fires. We

215
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,759
found that that's not always a good
idea, right because then you have bigger

216
00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:35,399
force fires layer. So that's just
part of the uncertainty is you know,

217
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:37,879
what were their actions to put out
this fire? The best thing to do

218
00:15:37,919 --> 00:15:41,000
in the long run, or was
it more destructive we have a bigger force

219
00:15:41,039 --> 00:15:46,799
fire later time will tell. I
don't know. I don't either. I'm

220
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:54,519
the first to admit it to my
future telling predictions haven't always been that great.

221
00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:58,919
A lot of times. I've been
in sync other times enough. But

222
00:15:58,039 --> 00:16:04,679
clearly, when the pandemic occurred and
they started throwing money at everybody and anybody,

223
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,480
I knew that was going to be
major inflationary as bad as a war,

224
00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:14,879
and certainly it was. Yeah,
and I acted accordingly. It was

225
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:19,519
a great financial time for me personally
because I didn't I wasn't in a job,

226
00:16:19,559 --> 00:16:23,440
I wasn't in a business that was
shut down by the government. But

227
00:16:25,039 --> 00:16:30,600
like you said, to some extent, we're reactive creatures. It's really hard

228
00:16:30,679 --> 00:16:34,639
based on that biology to you know, we're on the horizon looking for the

229
00:16:34,679 --> 00:16:41,240
sabretooth tiger is going to attack us, but we're not necessarily seeing what's behind

230
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,679
us, who's creeping up from behind, and it might might be a lion

231
00:16:47,159 --> 00:16:51,639
that's coming after us, right,
you know, that's exactly right. And

232
00:16:51,639 --> 00:16:55,519
and again I think you know,
a key message in my book is that

233
00:16:55,840 --> 00:17:00,320
to be a successful investor you don't
need to predict the future. Well,

234
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,599
and the reason is it's not possible
to predict the future. Well you're right,

235
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:08,160
sometimes you're you're wrong the others and
um that that there's again it's it's

236
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:15,519
about making it's about making good decisions
in the face of uncertainty and knowing what

237
00:17:15,559 --> 00:17:18,920
to base those decisions on, to
base them in lessons, you know,

238
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:25,640
wise, lessons from reality rather than
based on emotion, where you know,

239
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:30,000
some prediction that you've you've read and
you can just look at the big investment

240
00:17:30,039 --> 00:17:33,039
banks, you know, year to
year. So for for about a decade,

241
00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:37,640
I've kept track of the you know, the the predictions that you know,

242
00:17:37,799 --> 00:17:40,559
the Golden Sacks is, Morgan Stanleys
Shape, Morgan's Bank of America,

243
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,119
you know, all them, you
know, make of you know, what's

244
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:49,000
going to happen in the coming year
in the markets. And it's completely laughable

245
00:17:49,319 --> 00:17:53,799
that they continue to make these predictions. Um, you know, their predictions

246
00:17:53,839 --> 00:17:56,640
on GDP growth and what the stock
market is going to do, you know,

247
00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:02,279
growth versus value, you know,
and Nashville versus domestic all these things

248
00:18:02,599 --> 00:18:07,960
are you know, worse than chance
basically, and how they they end up

249
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,920
turning out and you know when you
you know, I have these situations where

250
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,240
I'm at conferences or no people and
you end up having a drink or two

251
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,559
at a bar, and I'll say
to you know, some of these chief

252
00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:19,640
investment strategies and some of these other
institutions, you know, why do you

253
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:26,359
continue to make these predictions when you
know you're really um, They don't really

254
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:30,599
add any value, if anything,
they hurt. And the number one answer

255
00:18:30,839 --> 00:18:33,559
of the ones that are more,
you know, area died. I would

256
00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:34,480
say, you know, there are
some things like oh no, I'm great,

257
00:18:34,519 --> 00:18:37,839
I'm like really, but most of
them say, you know, it's

258
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,960
really what the clients demand, like
my clients, you know, or the

259
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:48,160
clients of our firm want us to
tell them what we think is going to

260
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:53,920
happen. So we tell them,
even though we're often wrong, we tell

261
00:18:55,000 --> 00:19:00,160
them. And you know, as
I detail, you know more. There's

262
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,079
all these psychological reasons is humans.
One of the main ones is over confidence.

263
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:08,720
Why we continue to make predictions or
have strong opinions about things even when

264
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,440
we've been wrong over and over and
over. You know, one thing that

265
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,240
I've started doing, you know,
personally years ago, is keeping a decision

266
00:19:15,319 --> 00:19:18,680
journal so when it comes time to
make a decision, I will say,

267
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,160
you know, here's the issue.
Here are my possible What I see is

268
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:26,000
my possible decisions I could make,
and then I go ahead and do it.

269
00:19:26,039 --> 00:19:27,960
And then I will go back,
you know, months and years later

270
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:33,000
and look at here's the decision I
made. How did it turn out or

271
00:19:33,039 --> 00:19:36,799
wrong? It's up? Yeah,
yeah, it can be very humbling,

272
00:19:36,799 --> 00:19:41,039
you know. Yogi Barrett once said, prediction is very hard, especially about

273
00:19:41,039 --> 00:19:48,559
the future, and we got to
accept turmoil, uncertainty, chaos. That

274
00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:52,079
is the norm, the new norm. But it's not really that much different

275
00:19:52,079 --> 00:19:53,599
than the old norm, Hey,
is it? John? If we want

276
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,640
to find out more about you besides
buying your book, which is the uncertainty

277
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:03,359
solution, how to invest with confidence
in the face of the unknown, how

278
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,519
do we connect with you? Website? Twitter? Yes, my website is

279
00:20:06,519 --> 00:20:11,319
pretty easy, is John ms?
And Jennings are ms and Michael sorry then

280
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:14,720
Jenny, so John m Jennings dot
com. Very very simpler and so it's

281
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,200
my personal website and linked to my
book more about me linked term. So

282
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,799
yeah, that's that's what we uh
going Verry, And if you have a

283
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,119
question for John, shoot me an
email kl at Kerry Lutz dot com.

284
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,440
There'll be a link to John's site
in the show notes to this interview on

285
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,720
Financial Survival Network dot com. Make
sure you sign up for your free newsletter.

286
00:20:34,079 --> 00:20:38,400
John very interesting, compelling, and
we appreciate you coming on. We'll

287
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,400
talk to you again. Thanks for
having me a ton of fun. Thanks

288
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:48,799
for listening to Carry Letts's Financial Survival
Network, your solution to today's trying times.

289
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:53,039
For the latest, go to Financial
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival

290
00:20:53,119 --> 00:21:00,720
Network now more than ever. The
Girls