WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:04.599 Donald Trump's trial in Manhattan looks like it's going to get started a lot more 2 00:00:04.679 --> 00:00:10.039 quickly than people anticipated. Basically, a lot of people weren't sure exactly how 3 00:00:10.080 --> 00:00:14.679 long it would take for jury selection to take place. And as of clothes 4 00:00:14.759 --> 00:00:20.000 of business yesterday, they already had seven jurors selected. They're going to have. 5 00:00:21.039 --> 00:00:24.839 It's going to be a jury panel of eighteen twelve jurors and six alternates. 6 00:00:25.679 --> 00:00:29.719 Usually the way it works, and often the way it works in New 7 00:00:29.839 --> 00:00:35.520 York apparently, is that you get thirty eight people and then both sides get 8 00:00:35.640 --> 00:00:41.840 ten challenges. Ten people they can just peremptorily you shove off the jury pool. 9 00:00:41.880 --> 00:00:46.560 So you go from thirty eight each side subtracts ten, and then you're 10 00:00:46.600 --> 00:00:49.640 down to eighteen. And that process usually takes long. That's not what the 11 00:00:49.719 --> 00:00:54.679 judge is allowing. The judges basically just letting them get to eighteen and then 12 00:00:54.759 --> 00:00:56.799 saying, all right, now, you guys, use your challenges. And 13 00:00:56.799 --> 00:01:02.520 then often attorneys are a little more loth to kick people off the jury then 14 00:01:02.560 --> 00:01:07.359 because they don't know if they're going to get somebody better. So it looks 15 00:01:07.439 --> 00:01:11.840 like we're going to we could have a trial starting with Trump's case as soon 16 00:01:12.040 --> 00:01:21.280 as Monday. And this is a hugely significant thing. It's hugely significant for 17 00:01:21.879 --> 00:01:25.560 you know, if Donald Trump is actually convicted of a criminal offense that's going 18 00:01:25.640 --> 00:01:32.079 to massively impact could anyway massively impact the election. And what do you do 19 00:01:32.159 --> 00:01:38.719 if he's convicted absolutely on all counts. How do you deal with a presidential 20 00:01:38.799 --> 00:01:45.680 candidate who's in jail? So this is a hugely consequential thing right now. 21 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:52.359 I want to kind of go through some of the legal questions again. I 22 00:01:52.359 --> 00:01:56.560 know I talked about this a little bit last week, but just to sort 23 00:01:56.560 --> 00:02:01.760 of refresh people on what a stretch these charges are out of all of the 24 00:02:01.760 --> 00:02:07.120 criminal charges Trump is facing at the federal level, and this is a New 25 00:02:07.200 --> 00:02:15.639 York state charge. Mind you, this is the weakest case. It's the 26 00:02:15.680 --> 00:02:23.360 weakest case, but it's a jury pool manhattanites who are not going to be 27 00:02:23.400 --> 00:02:30.800 sympathetic to Donald Trump. So I think while the charges are weak, the 28 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:35.280 fact that you have such a liberal jury, I think means you could very 29 00:02:35.280 --> 00:02:39.560 well see Trump convicted. So let's dig into this. What is he actually 30 00:02:39.639 --> 00:02:44.919 being charged with and how do we sort of how do we think through it? 31 00:02:45.280 --> 00:02:49.159 And I want to talk about sort of the interesting legal issues involved, 32 00:02:49.159 --> 00:02:57.599 which I think are incredibly I think the charges are such a stretch against Trump. 33 00:02:57.759 --> 00:03:02.080 And one of the things to remember is the various you know, jurisdictions 34 00:03:02.120 --> 00:03:08.360 that are at play here. The kinds of things Trump is being charged with 35 00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:15.360 are things that lots of other prosecutors have already said no, thanks, we're 36 00:03:15.360 --> 00:03:20.879 not going to charge him with. The prior District Attorney of Manhattan before Alvin 37 00:03:20.879 --> 00:03:24.240 Bragg looked at this case and said no, not going to charge it. 38 00:03:25.240 --> 00:03:31.039 The federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York. And let's recall the 39 00:03:31.080 --> 00:03:36.439 federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York who prosecute all the federal crimes 40 00:03:36.479 --> 00:03:42.879 in Manhattan. They're the creme de la creme. Okay. There's no prosecutor's 41 00:03:42.879 --> 00:03:49.439 office in the country more elite than the prosecutors than the prosecutors who work in 42 00:03:49.479 --> 00:03:52.400 the Southern District of New York, the federal Southern District of New York. 43 00:03:52.439 --> 00:03:59.520 Okay, this is the absolute creme dela creme. There were Biden administration federal 44 00:03:59.520 --> 00:04:03.000 prosecut in the Southern District of New York who looked at this thing and said, 45 00:04:03.240 --> 00:04:08.080 now, we're not going to bring charges here. Alvin Bragg did. 46 00:04:08.360 --> 00:04:15.439 Alvin Bragg, the ultra left wing prosecutor, the ultra left wing District Attorney 47 00:04:15.480 --> 00:04:19.680 of Manhattan, who doesn't want to prosecute, you know, normal criminals, 48 00:04:19.720 --> 00:04:25.519 any person of color who you know, punches old ladies on subways. There's 49 00:04:25.680 --> 00:04:29.839 this huge swath of New York criminal law he just does not want to enforce 50 00:04:30.279 --> 00:04:34.240 for various kinds of racial equity reasons. He's the only one who wants to 51 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:43.040 bring this charge. And the case against Trump, it's being characterized as a 52 00:04:43.160 --> 00:04:50.399 hush money case that he paid hush money to a porn star. Technically, 53 00:04:50.439 --> 00:04:58.360 paying hush money to a porn star is both one not illegal, highly unsavory 54 00:05:00.120 --> 00:05:05.240 illegal, and two it's not actually what he's being charged with. What Trump 55 00:05:05.319 --> 00:05:20.680 is being charged with is miscategorizing in his records what that payment was. So 56 00:05:20.839 --> 00:05:29.319 Donald Trump signed a non disclosure agreement with Stormy Daniels. It's not her, 57 00:05:29.319 --> 00:05:31.560 actually, I can't remember her actual name. I think Stephanie Clifford is her 58 00:05:31.600 --> 00:05:39.639 name. Stormy Daniels a porn star that allegedly he had an affair with, 59 00:05:41.480 --> 00:05:47.879 and he signs basically a non disclosure agreement with her that basically she will receive 60 00:05:48.040 --> 00:05:55.720 a sum of money which was going to be paid to her through Michael Cohen, 61 00:05:56.839 --> 00:06:04.519 Trump's erstwhile lawyer, fixer Slash Sleeze Ball, and in exchange for that 62 00:06:04.639 --> 00:06:14.000 money, Stormy Daniels would not publicly discuss their affair. Such an agreement is 63 00:06:14.240 --> 00:06:20.879 sleazy and unsavory in this context, certainly, But non disclosure agreements are a 64 00:06:21.000 --> 00:06:26.720 totally legal thing in many, many, many many contexts in American civil law. 65 00:06:28.279 --> 00:06:30.319 You know, to companies have a dispute, all of a sudden, 66 00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:34.160 nobody's talking about it. Why, well, everyone money was exchanged. Non 67 00:06:34.199 --> 00:06:41.879 disclosure agreements were signed. Non disclosure agreements are used quite often in American civil 68 00:06:41.959 --> 00:06:44.720 law, and they are legal most of the time. Now, there are 69 00:06:44.720 --> 00:06:48.399 some instances where maybe they're not. If you sign a non disclosure agreement but 70 00:06:48.560 --> 00:06:53.319 you get called in a criminal law context to talk about it, you kind 71 00:06:53.319 --> 00:06:57.639 of have to talk about it, so it's not. There are certain things 72 00:06:57.639 --> 00:07:00.959 that a non disclosure agreement has to kind of bend and conceive to, But 73 00:07:00.759 --> 00:07:05.120 non disclosure agreements happened all the time. Hush money, if you will money 74 00:07:05.120 --> 00:07:15.120 to hush someone is not in itself illegal most of the time. So Trump 75 00:07:15.199 --> 00:07:26.120 makes this arrangement with Stephanie Clifford. That's not illegal. The crime allegedly that 76 00:07:26.240 --> 00:07:31.879 Donald Trump made, according to New York law, was falsifying his business records 77 00:07:31.879 --> 00:07:38.600 for how that payment was categorized instead of so basically what it was is, 78 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:44.000 Michael Cohen goes to a bank on his own line of credit, He gets 79 00:07:44.040 --> 00:07:48.639 money. He has an LLC that pays Stormy Daniels one hundred and fifty thousand 80 00:07:48.639 --> 00:08:05.680 bucks. Trump pays back Michael Cohen instead of listing in his records that this 81 00:08:05.879 --> 00:08:13.759 payment is repayment of a loan. Basically Cohen laid out the money for Trump. 82 00:08:13.439 --> 00:08:18.639 So this is basically Trump paying back Cohen for basically a loan in a 83 00:08:18.680 --> 00:08:26.279 sense. Instead of categorizing it like that, Trump in his books characterized it 84 00:08:28.160 --> 00:08:31.800 he basically instead of paying Cohen all the money up front, he broke the 85 00:08:31.839 --> 00:08:39.960 payments up into chunks and gave Cohen a series of monthly payments that were categorized 86 00:08:39.000 --> 00:08:50.600 as ongoing legal fees for ongoing legal work. Now here's the thing in New 87 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:58.879 York law, if you're falsifying business records, that's the fact of stating things 88 00:08:58.879 --> 00:09:07.360 incorrectly is not itself a crime. The crime is stating things incorrectly in order 89 00:09:07.440 --> 00:09:15.279 to commit fraud. Now fraud. A good way of thinking about this is 90 00:09:15.480 --> 00:09:18.639 lying for money. Okay, fraud. When you hear the word fraud, 91 00:09:18.840 --> 00:09:20.960 a good shorthand for that is lying for money. And in New York it's 92 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:24.399 a little bit broader than that, like lying for advantage in some sort of 93 00:09:24.399 --> 00:09:35.039 material advantage for yourself. Nobody was really advantaged by the lie. In fact, 94 00:09:35.559 --> 00:09:41.799 if anything, Trump and Cohen made the tax situation for themselves worse by 95 00:09:41.879 --> 00:09:50.200 characterizing the payments as legal fees rather than as repayment of a loan. Okay, 96 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:56.799 if if I loan you one hundred and fifty thousand dollars and you pay 97 00:09:56.840 --> 00:10:00.639 me back that money, well, the money I get back that one hundred 98 00:10:00.639 --> 00:10:03.600 and fifty thousand dollars, assuming I don't know charge your interest or anything. 99 00:10:03.639 --> 00:10:07.159 If I loan you a hundred fifty thousand, I get one hundred fifty thousand 100 00:10:07.159 --> 00:10:11.200 dollars back. My receiving one hundred and fifty thousand dollars back, that's not 101 00:10:11.320 --> 00:10:18.600 taxable income to me the way that Trump and Cohen did it, though, 102 00:10:18.799 --> 00:10:22.080 it was taxable. It was basically, if you're paying if you're giving the 103 00:10:22.120 --> 00:10:26.399 money to someone and calling it legal fees rather than repayment of a loan, 104 00:10:26.759 --> 00:10:31.559 then everyone's got to pay tax on that. So no one was making money 105 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:41.320 off of it. It wasn't really a fraudulent thing. And by the way, 106 00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:52.200 those payments and the categorization of that was after the election, so calling 107 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:58.279 it that. So that's that's sort of one of the points. So, 108 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:05.320 first of all, the initial crime itself unclear whether all the elements were actually 109 00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:11.600 met. Was anyone actually being defrauded. No, was fraud actually happening. 110 00:11:11.679 --> 00:11:18.159 No, they were mischaracterizing it, but it wasn't. No one was making 111 00:11:18.159 --> 00:11:22.600 any money off of that mischaracterization. If anything, they lost money off of 112 00:11:22.639 --> 00:11:28.480 it because they had to pay basically double the tax. Well, here's the 113 00:11:28.519 --> 00:11:37.960 thing in New York. Falsifying business records to commit fraud the level it was 114 00:11:37.000 --> 00:11:41.240 at everyone sort of acknowledges would have been a misdemeanor. It only becomes a 115 00:11:41.320 --> 00:11:50.759 felony if it's in furtherance of some other felony. And this is critical. 116 00:11:52.039 --> 00:11:58.840 The other problem that the DA of Manhattan had. If it's just a misdemeanor, 117 00:11:58.960 --> 00:12:01.200 then the statute delimitations has already passed. Basically, if it's a misdemeanor, 118 00:12:01.240 --> 00:12:05.200 you got to bring that charge within a year or two. We're way 119 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:09.080 past that time, all right. This is conduct that happened in twenty sixteen 120 00:12:09.080 --> 00:12:13.919 and twenty seventeen. It would have had to bring that case in like twenty 121 00:12:13.919 --> 00:12:18.879 eighteen or twenty nineteen, so we're way past that point. It's only if 122 00:12:18.960 --> 00:12:24.279 it's a felony. Though. If these falsification of business records were in furtherance 123 00:12:24.360 --> 00:12:31.360 of a felony, then the statute of limitations is longer and Brag can bring 124 00:12:31.399 --> 00:12:35.519 this claim now. So that's what Bragg's claiming. He's claiming that this was 125 00:12:35.559 --> 00:12:43.679 in furtherance of a federal elections felony, of a violation of federal election law. 126 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:54.080 Basically, Trump not reporting this payment as an election expense, that that 127 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:58.279 is a felony, violation of elections law. Now, a lot of problems 128 00:12:58.320 --> 00:13:03.240 with that one. Alvin Bragg bringing this case in New York state law. 129 00:13:03.320 --> 00:13:13.639 New York state law doesn't have jurisdiction over federal elections law. Secondly, federal 130 00:13:13.679 --> 00:13:18.799 elections officials did not prosecute Trump for this crime. They looked at it and 131 00:13:18.799 --> 00:13:22.240 didn't think it was a crime. John Edwards, I don't know how many 132 00:13:22.320 --> 00:13:24.600 you remember him. He was a former senator from North Carolina used to be 133 00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:28.519 He was John Carey's running mate in two thousand and four. He was prosecuted 134 00:13:28.559 --> 00:13:37.080 for a similar kind of thing as an elections violation and was acquitted. So, 135 00:13:39.720 --> 00:13:46.159 yeah, Trump paying hush money to this woman. It might have helped 136 00:13:46.200 --> 00:13:50.519 his campaign. But is that a campaign expense that needs to be reported. 137 00:13:50.840 --> 00:13:56.879 No, not necessarily Trump paid off this woman. He might have had multiple 138 00:13:56.919 --> 00:14:03.559 motivations for paying her off. For one, to not cause embarrassment in his 139 00:14:03.639 --> 00:14:05.960 marriage. The timeline of this would have been that he would have had this 140 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:13.360 affair with Stormy Daniels very shortly after Millennia had their first child, but their 141 00:14:13.840 --> 00:14:16.360 only child. I guess that Trump and Millennia have barren. There are a 142 00:14:16.399 --> 00:14:20.840 lot of reasons why Trump would have done it other than electoral advantage. And 143 00:14:22.000 --> 00:14:31.120 also we're talking about the misstatement of records. The misstatement of records happened after 144 00:14:31.159 --> 00:14:37.440 the election was over. Yeah, he made the hush money payments. Maybe 145 00:14:37.480 --> 00:14:41.039 in furtherance of his electrical He made the pledge that he would give hush money 146 00:14:41.039 --> 00:14:48.440 payments in furtherance of his electoral chances. But the misstatement of records was after 147 00:14:48.480 --> 00:14:54.960 the election. That's not in furtherance of the electoral process in any way. 148 00:14:54.759 --> 00:15:03.840 So it's a the case against Trump here in Manhattan. It rests on so 149 00:15:03.360 --> 00:15:11.679 many weak building blocks. Now I'll just again say, I'm looking at this 150 00:15:11.840 --> 00:15:16.480 like a lawyer. I'm not looking at this like you know, an ethesis. 151 00:15:18.519 --> 00:15:24.399 It seems it seems more idiotic to me rather than evil, that Trump 152 00:15:24.879 --> 00:15:33.639 sort of mischaracterized for his financial records what this payment to Cohen was. If 153 00:15:33.679 --> 00:15:35.639 anything, it seems like it would have just made more sense for him to 154 00:15:35.879 --> 00:15:43.159 treat it as paying off alone. I guess I don't understand. It's more, 155 00:15:43.240 --> 00:15:46.919 I don't understand the manner of Trump's conduct here with the falsification of business 156 00:15:46.960 --> 00:15:54.240 records. Obviously, I not crazy about hush money payments to porn stars and 157 00:15:54.840 --> 00:16:00.480 all the allegations of sexual impropriety. Nonetheless, though I don't think there is 158 00:16:00.960 --> 00:16:08.840 even close to a convictable crime here. But here's the thing, it's a 159 00:16:08.840 --> 00:16:15.279 New York jury. When we will return, we will discuss the dynamics there 160 00:16:15.320 --> 00:16:19.840 with the jury that is next on the John Girardi Show. If you're wondering 161 00:16:19.960 --> 00:16:23.279 why is Girardi talking on and on and on about this Manhattan trial. Look, 162 00:16:25.799 --> 00:16:32.840 Trump, if he's convicted here, could face decades in jail. Okay, 163 00:16:33.279 --> 00:16:37.759 this is really important, guys. I agree that the charges against Trump 164 00:16:37.840 --> 00:16:45.879 are weak. I agree one hundred percent agree, no dispute here. But 165 00:16:47.679 --> 00:16:53.759 if Trump is convicted, he's he's charged with like thirty two counts of falsification 166 00:16:53.799 --> 00:17:02.279 of business records in furtherance of a felony level felneral elections crime, failure to 167 00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:06.279 report. Okay. And by the way, the way that it was spun 168 00:17:06.400 --> 00:17:17.240 up into something like how many how many? How many counts exactly thirty four 169 00:17:17.319 --> 00:17:25.400 counts of felony falsifying of business records. Each count carries up to four years 170 00:17:26.000 --> 00:17:29.720 in jail. And the way that they got to thirty four counts was basically 171 00:17:29.880 --> 00:17:34.839 as I explained in the last segment. Trump agreed to do this non disclosure 172 00:17:34.839 --> 00:17:40.680 agreement with Stormy Daniels. Basically, he would pay her a bunch of money 173 00:17:40.839 --> 00:17:45.440 she would not talk about their alleged affair. He did this via Michael Cohen, 174 00:17:45.480 --> 00:17:49.480 who was working for him in various capacities as a lawyer. Cohen. 175 00:17:52.039 --> 00:18:00.240 Basically, Cohen paid the money and Trump needed to repay him for that Trump 176 00:18:00.319 --> 00:18:08.000 and Cohen Trump instead of categorizing his payments back, Trump instead of categorizing his 177 00:18:08.000 --> 00:18:15.359 payments back to Cohen as repayment of a loan, Trump categorized it as payment 178 00:18:15.400 --> 00:18:19.160 of ongoing legal fees. That's the crime here that Trump categorized his payments to 179 00:18:19.240 --> 00:18:27.240 Cohen as paying legal fees rather than as repayment of a loan. And Trump 180 00:18:27.279 --> 00:18:33.519 basically paid Cohen in installments, so a monthly installment of you know, several 181 00:18:33.519 --> 00:18:37.960 tens of thousand dollars per month over the course of several months, and he 182 00:18:38.000 --> 00:18:41.279 had to pay Cohen more because Cohen knew he was going to have to pay 183 00:18:41.319 --> 00:18:45.200 taxes on it because they were categorizing it as legal fees rather than as repayment 184 00:18:45.200 --> 00:18:52.160 of a loan. So basically there were thirty four individual payments from Trump to 185 00:18:52.240 --> 00:19:00.480 Cohen, and brag is categorizing every single payment as an individual felonious act or 186 00:19:02.200 --> 00:19:07.440 not even the payment. The way each payment was categorized, each payment was 187 00:19:07.519 --> 00:19:15.400 actually repayment of a loan. But in the business records, Trump was categorizing 188 00:19:15.440 --> 00:19:21.720 it as payment of ongoing legal fees, which is kind of a preposterous thing 189 00:19:21.759 --> 00:19:26.400 for Brag to do. This was obviously one single transaction, not thirty four. 190 00:19:27.039 --> 00:19:32.559 It was one transaction paid off in thirty four installments. So the idea 191 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:37.079 that you're going to take Trump's legal exposure from you know, four years to 192 00:19:38.119 --> 00:19:42.279 you know, one hundred and thirty six years or something like that, is 193 00:19:42.400 --> 00:19:51.559 kind of preposterous. Now, Trump could get convicted of this, all right, 194 00:19:51.599 --> 00:19:55.759 and unlike the federal charges that Trump is facing. Let's remember this about 195 00:19:55.799 --> 00:19:59.519 the pardon power that the president has. Okay, everyone kind of knows this 196 00:19:59.599 --> 00:20:03.720 that the president has the power to pardon people for crimes, and it's basically 197 00:20:03.759 --> 00:20:11.680 an uncontestable, unchallengeable in court power that the president has. Bill Clinton, 198 00:20:11.759 --> 00:20:17.400 on his way out, issued some pardons that looked incredibly sleazy, but there 199 00:20:17.480 --> 00:20:22.559 was no way of really challenging it. The presidential power to pardon is pretty 200 00:20:22.640 --> 00:20:30.119 much absolute, and it's uncontestable. Presidents can pardon people completely for a criminal 201 00:20:30.160 --> 00:20:34.759 conviction. They can even anticipatorily pardon someone for something they haven't been convicted or 202 00:20:34.799 --> 00:20:37.960 even accused of yet. That's one of the most famous pardons in history was 203 00:20:37.960 --> 00:20:45.200 when Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon for any and all wrongdoing in connection with Watergate. 204 00:20:47.559 --> 00:20:52.880 And the pardon power was actually something that came to the American presidency from 205 00:20:52.000 --> 00:20:56.079 the British monarchy. Okay, so the crown had the power to pardon people 206 00:20:56.279 --> 00:21:02.039 for criminal crimes, for criminal offenses. And this is sort of the monarchic 207 00:21:02.839 --> 00:21:06.480 nature of the presidency that this was a power of the monarchy that when the 208 00:21:06.519 --> 00:21:11.279 New Constitution was drafted, was vested in the president sort of as a monarch, 209 00:21:11.480 --> 00:21:15.440 not in the sense of like a hereditary king. The president is a 210 00:21:15.480 --> 00:21:21.440 single man who exercises power monos one k power. Okay, Well, the 211 00:21:21.480 --> 00:21:27.920 one limitation on the presidential power power to pardon, is that presidents only can 212 00:21:29.000 --> 00:21:38.839 pardon for federal crimes. They can't pardon for state crimes. And that's what 213 00:21:38.880 --> 00:21:44.200 Trump's being charged with. Now. He's not being charged by federal prosecutors. 214 00:21:44.480 --> 00:21:48.720 This is not a federal criminal case. This is a New York state case. 215 00:21:48.880 --> 00:21:53.720 This is a New York State criminal case being prosecuted by the District Attorney 216 00:21:55.200 --> 00:22:03.599 of the County of Manhattan. The only person who can pardon for New York 217 00:22:03.680 --> 00:22:08.319 state crimes is the governor of New York, all right, So what the 218 00:22:08.359 --> 00:22:12.920 president. The president's power over the federal system, that's what each individual governor's 219 00:22:14.000 --> 00:22:18.319 power is over their state system. Gavin Newsom can pardon for California crimes, 220 00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:22.279 not Joe Biden. Kathy Hakule, the governor of New York. She can 221 00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:26.519 pardon for New York crimes. Not Gavin Newsom and not Joe Biden. Okay, 222 00:22:26.079 --> 00:22:30.319 so that was always the thing. Trump sort of has this in his 223 00:22:30.400 --> 00:22:34.400 back pocket. If he could delay his federal criminal charges until after the election 224 00:22:34.519 --> 00:22:40.000 and he wins, he could pardon himself. He can't do that for New 225 00:22:40.079 --> 00:22:45.200 York. So what I'm saying is, look, I think the charges against 226 00:22:45.200 --> 00:22:49.960 Trump are extremely weak, but it's a jury trial, and it's a New 227 00:22:51.039 --> 00:22:56.920 York City Manhattan jury. He could get convicted and no one's gonna pardon him. 228 00:23:00.000 --> 00:23:06.519 Where does that leave Republicans? That'll be next on the John Girardi Show. 229 00:23:07.200 --> 00:23:11.359 I hate to kind of raise this possibility for people, and I know 230 00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:15.000 people will get upset. But the trial's happening, all right. Trial is 231 00:23:15.319 --> 00:23:19.599 they're doing jury selection right now. The jury might be impaneled in the trial 232 00:23:21.359 --> 00:23:26.839 over President Trump and the allegations in New York of falsifying business records allegedly and 233 00:23:26.880 --> 00:23:36.079 further into a felony. Look, Donald Trump could be convicted, you know, 234 00:23:36.200 --> 00:23:40.559 two months from now. Okay, it's today, is what April seventeenth? 235 00:23:40.640 --> 00:23:44.480 We could be June seventeenth and Donald Trump could be convicted. It could 236 00:23:44.559 --> 00:23:48.640 be again. And again I'm saying I think that the charges against him are 237 00:23:48.720 --> 00:23:53.319 weak. I think they rest on a whole bunch of weak presuppositions. But 238 00:23:56.319 --> 00:23:59.440 it could happen. It's a jury trial, all right. These things are 239 00:23:59.480 --> 00:24:06.440 not always decided by you know, these things are not always decided by what's 240 00:24:06.519 --> 00:24:08.960 right and what's wrong. It's decided by how the jury rules. You're telling 241 00:24:10.000 --> 00:24:12.839 me there aren't twelve people in Manhattan who wouldn't be able to put Donald Trump 242 00:24:12.880 --> 00:24:22.720 away. It's it's highly possible. Okay. Now, I want to talk 243 00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:34.039 about this as it relates to the election. The Republican Convention is July fifteenth. 244 00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:41.920 We are at April seventeenth. All right, what if Trump's convicted? 245 00:24:42.880 --> 00:24:47.359 And again, I'm not saying it should happen. I think it manifestly should 246 00:24:47.440 --> 00:24:49.920 not. I think the charges against him are weak. I don't think they 247 00:24:49.920 --> 00:24:55.119 are backed up by the evidence. I don't think the crimes. I don't 248 00:24:55.119 --> 00:25:02.960 think his alleged conduct even matches up with the the alleged crime. I don't 249 00:25:03.000 --> 00:25:08.400 think that his falsification of business records was fraudulent. It didn't builk anyone out 250 00:25:08.400 --> 00:25:11.119 of money. It didn't cheat the government out of money. If anything, 251 00:25:11.160 --> 00:25:17.200 the government got more tax money out of it. Because basically it was Donald 252 00:25:17.200 --> 00:25:22.640 Trump characterizing repayment of a loan to Michael Cohen. So Michael Cohen pays Stormy 253 00:25:22.680 --> 00:25:29.119 Daniel's money, not to tell her story, Trump repays Michael Cohen. Instead 254 00:25:29.119 --> 00:25:36.359 of listing the payment as repayment of a loan, he characterizes it as payment 255 00:25:36.400 --> 00:25:41.039 of legal fees to Michael Cohen, which it manifestly was not. Now that's 256 00:25:41.640 --> 00:25:45.720 not true. Is statement of what the payments are. But it wasn't in 257 00:25:45.759 --> 00:25:49.680 furtherance of fraud in any way. Fraud is lying for money. There was 258 00:25:49.680 --> 00:25:56.400 no material advantage that anyone was getting out of that, and it was a 259 00:25:56.400 --> 00:26:03.279 payment that happened after the election was over. Trump didn't win the election because 260 00:26:03.359 --> 00:26:10.119 he misstated on that payment form that this was paying off alone versus paying off 261 00:26:10.200 --> 00:26:14.440 legal fees. Okay, And that's I think the critical thing, one of 262 00:26:14.440 --> 00:26:18.559 the critical things in all this why this is weak. The crime was not 263 00:26:18.640 --> 00:26:23.319 doing anything to further Trump's electoral chances. The crime was saying that this payment 264 00:26:25.160 --> 00:26:33.279 was paying legal fees rather than paying off alone. That crime didn't further Trump's 265 00:26:33.480 --> 00:26:37.359 electoral chances. That crime only happened in twenty seventeen after Trump had already won. 266 00:26:38.759 --> 00:26:44.680 Okay, So that crime that he's charged with is not furthering his electoral 267 00:26:44.759 --> 00:26:53.279 chances, which already happened. Okay. So and so that's that's I think 268 00:26:53.319 --> 00:26:57.160 the core of this why I think Trump's one of many reasons really why I 269 00:26:57.160 --> 00:27:02.960 don't think Trump actually committed a crime here. And by the way, I'm 270 00:27:02.960 --> 00:27:08.599 not as a legal commentator. I'm not saying everything Trump has done is clean 271 00:27:08.599 --> 00:27:12.440 and pure as the wind driven snow, or that some of the charges he's 272 00:27:12.480 --> 00:27:17.240 facing aren't strong than others. I think the federal charges he's gonna face for 273 00:27:17.680 --> 00:27:22.079 mishandling classified documents, I think those are pretty strong. I think everything else 274 00:27:22.119 --> 00:27:27.079 pretty much is bunco but at least that one, those are strong charges. 275 00:27:27.119 --> 00:27:30.799 So just in case someone's like, oh, you're just a Trump apologist. 276 00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:33.039 You're just gonna wave off everything Trump does. No, I'm not waving off 277 00:27:33.039 --> 00:27:38.400 everything Trump does. I just don't think this was I don't think the allegations 278 00:27:38.440 --> 00:27:42.400 made against him here, I don't think he is guilty of that kind of 279 00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:48.279 a crime. I don't think. So that doesn't mean that a New York 280 00:27:48.319 --> 00:27:51.640 jury can't convict him, though, And if they do convict him and he's 281 00:27:51.720 --> 00:27:55.200 you know, years in jail, or is the exposure that he has. 282 00:27:55.279 --> 00:27:59.400 These are felonies that he's charged with here. Felony means a crime that is 283 00:27:59.440 --> 00:28:03.559 punishable by a year or more in jail. Okay, so Donald Trump could 284 00:28:03.640 --> 00:28:07.440 go to jail and it's New York state crime, so he can't pardon himself. 285 00:28:08.240 --> 00:28:14.039 So what do Republicans do at the convention? Trump has already as far 286 00:28:14.039 --> 00:28:18.200 as Republican primary voters are concerned, that's over. Trump already won the primary, 287 00:28:18.960 --> 00:28:22.240 all right, He's already secured enough delegates, He's already won enough states 288 00:28:23.160 --> 00:28:30.119 to secure the primary. So what happens at the Republican convention. Well, 289 00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:40.079 the Republican convention is being run by ultra Trump loyalists. Okay, he's got 290 00:28:40.960 --> 00:28:48.119 Lara Trump has the head of the RNC, and Chris Lachivita, who it's 291 00:28:48.160 --> 00:28:57.359 a longtime super Trump loyalist who's running the actual convention itself. Now with the 292 00:28:57.400 --> 00:29:06.279 Republican Convention, there's a little less wiggle room than in the Democrat convention. 293 00:29:06.359 --> 00:29:12.759 Okay, Republican delegates are bound to vote for the person who has won in 294 00:29:12.799 --> 00:29:18.799 the Democrat convention. It's actually a little easier to weasel out of. You 295 00:29:18.799 --> 00:29:22.119 don't necessarily have to. You ought to vote for the person who won your 296 00:29:22.160 --> 00:29:30.799 state. So if if Joe Biden in the Democrat primary wins Iowa and you're 297 00:29:30.839 --> 00:29:37.440 an Iowa Democrat delegate going to the Democrat convention, which I can't remember where 298 00:29:37.480 --> 00:29:38.920 it is, I think it's in Chicago this year, you go to the 299 00:29:38.920 --> 00:29:44.880 Democrat convention, you cast your delegate vote for Joe Biden. Well, you 300 00:29:44.920 --> 00:29:48.839 don't have to do so, you ought to do so, but you do 301 00:29:48.920 --> 00:29:52.480 actually have some discretion to not cast a firm Republican delegates don't have that leeway. 302 00:29:52.880 --> 00:29:56.200 When they get to the convention. They got to cast their first vote 303 00:29:56.240 --> 00:30:03.039 for Donald Trump. Now it's a parliamentary The convention can change its rules on 304 00:30:03.079 --> 00:30:10.519 the spot, and I guess I just have to ask the question if Donald 305 00:30:10.519 --> 00:30:17.920 Trump is actually in a jail cell, he's there and he ain't getting out 306 00:30:18.759 --> 00:30:21.640 anytime soon. Maybe, you know, maybe he has an appeal of the 307 00:30:21.680 --> 00:30:26.240 case. But if he's actually in a jail cell, do we just continue? 308 00:30:26.119 --> 00:30:32.440 How can he campaign? How can he function? Do we just make 309 00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:36.920 it donald Trump picks his vice presidential candidate and that person is going around the 310 00:30:36.920 --> 00:30:41.359 country stumping for him. I mean, are we gonna just lose the election 311 00:30:41.480 --> 00:30:48.119 because Donald Trump is locked in a jail cell? Or can the convention make 312 00:30:48.160 --> 00:30:55.240 a choice to pick somebody else? Now, there's a piece from the AP 313 00:30:56.160 --> 00:31:02.119 that basically says the Republican Convention rules don't really have a lot of rules laying 314 00:31:02.160 --> 00:31:07.839 out what, you know, what's going to happen or what could happen in 315 00:31:07.880 --> 00:31:15.000 the event that Trump can that Trump is convicted and is in a jail cell. 316 00:31:17.039 --> 00:31:19.640 Now, one of the things this story is the story from the AP, 317 00:31:19.720 --> 00:31:23.759 and it's sort of laying out stuff about the different Republican Convention rules. 318 00:31:25.920 --> 00:31:27.720 One of the things it says is at next year's convention, which starts July 319 00:31:27.839 --> 00:31:33.640 fifteenth in Milwaukee, there will be opportunities to tweak the rules when they are 320 00:31:33.680 --> 00:31:37.680 adopted, or to suspend them, which can require two thirds of delegates to 321 00:31:37.720 --> 00:31:41.880 approve on a vote. It's a parliamentary body, said Benjamin Ginsberg, or 322 00:31:41.880 --> 00:31:45.599 Republican election lawyer. It can always work its will if it wants to one 323 00:31:45.599 --> 00:31:49.039 way or another. Such last minute maneuvers are difficult to organize, and there 324 00:31:49.039 --> 00:31:52.359 are a few current signs that delegates might look for another option, even with 325 00:31:52.400 --> 00:31:59.119 Trump's criminal cases looming. They're all going to be chosen at contests in which 326 00:31:59.119 --> 00:32:01.839 people are voting for, and I think they're unlikely if he wins the primary 327 00:32:01.880 --> 00:32:07.079 to change up because of a court case. Ginsberg said. The Trump campaign 328 00:32:07.160 --> 00:32:13.519 issued a preemptive warning anyway, Now, this was a piece written in uh, 329 00:32:13.559 --> 00:32:16.039 this was four months ago, so this is before Ronald McDaniel was pushed 330 00:32:16.079 --> 00:32:21.880 out and Lara Trump came in. Here's the quote though, from Chris Lachivita, 331 00:32:21.920 --> 00:32:28.319 who is now who currently is running the Republican Convention. Chris Lacivita says 332 00:32:28.359 --> 00:32:32.000 any attempt by any swamp rat, by any Washington DC swamp rat, to 333 00:32:32.119 --> 00:32:36.400 mess with the rules will be summarily crushed by those of us that know how 334 00:32:36.400 --> 00:32:39.400 to run conventions and he's the guy running the convention. He was a senior 335 00:32:39.400 --> 00:32:43.519 consultant in charge of rules and floor operations for the RNC in twenty sixteen, 336 00:32:43.839 --> 00:32:47.799 a year when some Trump opponents consider challenging him at the convention. So he's 337 00:32:47.839 --> 00:32:51.640 basically saying, no, there's not going to be a challenge. And I 338 00:32:51.680 --> 00:32:55.680 guess I just got asked the question. I mean, even of people who 339 00:32:55.720 --> 00:33:02.119 are total Trump loyalists, how can Trump effectively run if he is in jail? 340 00:33:04.599 --> 00:33:07.519 How can we expect any swing voter to vote for him? If he's 341 00:33:07.599 --> 00:33:13.640 literally in jail. Do we just run his vice presidential candidate and that person 342 00:33:13.759 --> 00:33:21.400 goes around Do we really expect someone to vote for that person? Or do 343 00:33:21.480 --> 00:33:23.720 we have to switch it up at the convention? And when we return, 344 00:33:23.799 --> 00:33:27.559 I want to talk about how I think this was the plan for Democrats all 345 00:33:27.559 --> 00:33:34.839 along. Next on the John Girardi Show, Donald Trump's criminal trial could be 346 00:33:34.920 --> 00:33:37.680 starting up. The jury selections already started, jury selections going faster than people 347 00:33:37.720 --> 00:33:44.920 anticipated. The actual trial could get, you know, actually hearing witnesses and 348 00:33:45.279 --> 00:33:49.359 rather than just doing the jury selection part. That could start as soon, 349 00:33:49.480 --> 00:33:54.960 maybe even as Monday. And again, I think the charges are weak I 350 00:33:55.039 --> 00:33:59.400 think it's certainly possible that there could be a hung jury that Trump could get 351 00:33:59.400 --> 00:34:02.319 acquitted. I think it's also though possible he could get convicted. It's just 352 00:34:02.400 --> 00:34:06.480 because of the jury pool. It's Manhattan, you know, this is not 353 00:34:07.599 --> 00:34:13.000 Clovis, California. These are you know, Manhattan nights are pretty liberal. 354 00:34:14.800 --> 00:34:17.199 It's not crazy to me to think that you couldn't find twelve people who don't 355 00:34:17.239 --> 00:34:21.440 like Donald Trump very much and are willing to convict him of basically anything. 356 00:34:23.440 --> 00:34:28.559 And as I've said, if he's convicted, he's going to jail, and 357 00:34:28.599 --> 00:34:31.719 he can't get out, all right, not unless a Republican governor gets elected 358 00:34:31.719 --> 00:34:35.440 in New York. He's not getting out, all right. There's no pardon. 359 00:34:37.679 --> 00:34:43.239 So what do Republicans do? Do we run a presidential candidate who is 360 00:34:43.280 --> 00:34:47.719 literally sitting in jail? How does he campaign? You know, I don't 361 00:34:47.760 --> 00:34:53.000 know what leeway inmates in New York State penitentiaries have to tweet or to use 362 00:34:53.000 --> 00:34:57.360 social media. I doubt it's a ton of leeway. Do we just run 363 00:34:57.400 --> 00:35:00.599 whomever Trump picks as his vice presidential pick, whom he hasn't picked yet. 364 00:35:02.880 --> 00:35:08.320 Does the Republican convention switch it out? My fear is that this is precisely 365 00:35:08.360 --> 00:35:15.760 the outcome that Democrats wanted all along. This was the plan. It was 366 00:35:15.800 --> 00:35:20.559 to spend the first two years of the Biden administration investigating all these crimes and 367 00:35:20.639 --> 00:35:29.199 then to launch these criminal trials against President Trump at the most maximally destructive times 368 00:35:29.400 --> 00:35:36.239 possible, to initiate these criminal charges against Trump in order to anger Republican base 369 00:35:36.360 --> 00:35:39.400 voters enough that they wanted to vote for Trump in the primaries. Now Trump 370 00:35:39.480 --> 00:35:45.880 secured the nomination, and get him convicted where he has to sit in a 371 00:35:45.920 --> 00:35:50.400 jail cell. If he's actually convicted, that's going to have a big impact 372 00:35:50.480 --> 00:35:52.920 on the election. I mean, I know for Trump loyalists listening, it's 373 00:35:52.920 --> 00:35:55.440 not going to impact their votes. It's going to impact the votes of a 374 00:35:55.440 --> 00:36:00.599 lot of people in the middle who you know, who Trum needs them in 375 00:36:00.719 --> 00:36:09.000 order to win. So I that has been my fear all along, is 376 00:36:09.039 --> 00:36:15.079 that Trump would get these criminal charges against him. Most of them are bunk, 377 00:36:15.440 --> 00:36:22.679 and indeed, this charge against him in Manhattan is total bunk. Okay. 378 00:36:22.719 --> 00:36:24.920 If I were a juror on it, I would vote to acquit him. 379 00:36:25.280 --> 00:36:29.320 If I were in the prosecutor's office, I would say why are you? 380 00:36:30.480 --> 00:36:34.519 Why are we prosecuting this case? The prior District Attorney of Manhattan declined 381 00:36:34.559 --> 00:36:38.239 to prosecute this case. The federal prosecutors in Manhattan declined to prosecute this case. 382 00:36:38.679 --> 00:36:43.840 Federal elections officials didn't prosecute Trump for anything having to do with the hush 383 00:36:43.880 --> 00:36:51.559 money payments he made to Stormy Daniels as an election crime. There quest there 384 00:36:51.599 --> 00:36:57.000 are problems with is this is the initial crime actually correct? Is it within 385 00:36:57.079 --> 00:37:02.599 the appropriate statute of limitations? Can New York State prosecutor prosecute someone for stuff 386 00:37:02.639 --> 00:37:08.000 that relates to federal election law violations leged or an intent to commit federal election 387 00:37:08.119 --> 00:37:14.000 law violations? That there are so many problems with this case. It is 388 00:37:14.079 --> 00:37:19.119 such a week, such an embarrassingly weak charge, and the only person crazy 389 00:37:19.159 --> 00:37:22.599 enough to bring it was Alvin Bragg, who is just this absolutely committed hardcore 390 00:37:22.679 --> 00:37:30.719 lefty. With all that said, it's a jury trial. Twelve people could 391 00:37:30.719 --> 00:37:35.760 decide, you know what, screw Donald Trump? Guilty, guilty on all 392 00:37:35.800 --> 00:37:42.039 counts, go to jail for however many years? Thirty four felony counts, 393 00:37:42.119 --> 00:37:45.000 four years a piece, Okay, you do the math. He's not getting 394 00:37:45.000 --> 00:37:52.280 out, so I guess that's my fear is that this was the Democrat plan 395 00:37:52.360 --> 00:37:57.320 all along, was to get Republicans to nominate Trump. Then Trump gets convicted, 396 00:37:57.760 --> 00:38:02.599 then Republicans lose they for election. Now, if it's a hung jury, 397 00:38:02.679 --> 00:38:07.280 you just need one of the twelve to say no. So maybe maybe 398 00:38:07.280 --> 00:38:12.599 Trump gets out of it. But it's going to be a fascinating couple of 399 00:38:12.599 --> 00:38:15.079 weeks here. That'll do it for John di already show see you next time 400 00:38:15.119 --> 00:38:15.719 on Power Talk.