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Download TE one today wherever you listen to podcasts. Hello, everyone,
and welcome to another episode of Hardwood Knocks. This is Adam Brommel here with
my co host Dan Favalley, and we are sponsored as always by door Dash
and bet Online dot AG. We are excited because the NBA Finals are upon
us in a matchup that I don't think anyone saw coming at the start of
the playoffs and especially at the beginning of the regular season. We have the
Miami Heat representing the Eastern Conference against the Los Angeles Lakers from the Western Conference.
We're gonna be talking about that series, as well as some other bits
of news that have merged in the last twenty four hours. The doc Rivers
mutual decision to part ways with the Los Angeles Clippers as head coach, the
rumor that Victor Oladipo might want out of Indiana, and the latest in the
seemingly perpetual potential rift between Ben Simmons and Joe l Embiid on the Philadelphia seventy
six ers. But before we dive into any of that, Dan, how's
it going? I am t I read, Adam, not gonna lie.
How are you doing? Still in good spears? So I'm ready for the
NBA Finals. It's exciting. I will say that we got here because there
were many moments in time where I think a majority of people, but definitely
you and I were skeptical that we would get here. And so it's cool
to see a conclusion to a season, and it's nice to you know,
I don't know, maybe it's not nice because these are unprecedented circumstances. But
this is not, as you sort of mentioned at the top, a series
that anyone expected when the playoffs first run away. I wrote a piece for
Bleacher Report about the most like unexpected finals matchups that we could see that we
would actually want to see, and of the five that I picked, there
was heat Lakers in part because of the Lebron versus pat Riley slash Erik Spoelstra
stuff. And then also Jimmy Butler once said that he always wanted to play
for the Lakers, so that would be funny. And then just the idea
of Jimmy Butler getting to the finals after the Sixers basically let him go,
the Bulls traded him away for whatever, and then thinks soured in Minnesota and
a lot of people have put most of that on him and in Minnesota,
the way that the departs are unfolded. He definitely deserves criticism for but he
left three pretty incompetent front offices, and I think that that's something that was
sort of lost amid the tumult there. So this is an interesting matchup.
I'm excited to get into it, but like I said, I'm also very
much exhausted at the moment. How are you doing? I am also tired,
looked tired enough that when you said t I red or whatever it was
at the beginning, I struggled for a minute to understand what you meant,
because my brain is mush. My dog has been sick of the last two
nights and getting up every hour, and it's like I have a newborn all
over again, and it has not been a fun reminder of that. So
she looked up to a caffeine ivy right now, so that this isn't like
too low energy a podcast. Yeah, I probably need to up my caffeine
intake, and I already probably consume too much caffeine to begin with. And
you did say before we started recording that you were brain dead, So I
feel like this will be an awesome podcast. It should be, as if
they all aren't already I mean, come on, and for listeners, this
is the first of three podcasts I'll be recording to day as we talk on
a Tuesday, so mine will get progressively worse. Let's hope this is the
best one. So look, let's start with Lakers Heat Finals matchup. I'm
not sure how you feel about this one, since I'm sure it's not one
that you've given a lot of thought too, at least maybe once the conference
finals started, obviously, but before then probably not before we get into the
nitty gritty of it all, like what are your inklings? Who was just
at the top? What is your pick? Because we always start our previews.
Yeah, I've been struggling with this one a lot since the matchup was
set, and really since it seemed likely to be set, because I think
the Miami Heat are the better basketball team. They have superior coaching, they
have superior depth, they have a lot of really good usable players, and
a lot of counters to what the Lakers do best. But I can't bet
against a motivated Lebron James in this series, you know, especially because their
path to the f als like hasn't been all that grueling and taxing relative to
other teams so I think I'm gonna go with Lakers in six, even though
that almost feels like an upset to me, despite the reputations of the franchises.
I would say that that's the cowards pick, and it's also my pick
Lakers because I feel like it should be Lakers in five. But I don't
want to discredit all the things that the Heat have done. And something that
I've really found instructive is I was listening to the Dunked On podcast and Danny
LaRue mentioned this. The Lakers very clearly have the two best players in this
series, which is huge to have the two best players in the series,
not just the best player. Maybe on a given night, Jimmy Butler's better
than an Anthony Davis, but on most nights it's gonna go Lebron Anthony Davis,
and then Jimmy Butler's the third best player. However, how when you
go to the Lakers third best player, how many Heat members of the Heat
are in between like Anthony Davis and the Lakers third best player. I was
going to ask you this exact same question, and as we moved on,
and I'd kind of want to turn to NBA maths player power rankings which look
at ten game samples, adjusting for the difficulty of the opponent and the box
score contribution. So it does sell defense a little bit short, but it
is at least a good baseline. And in those which we released Tuesday morning,
Lebron is number one, Anthony Davis is number two, but then bam
Adebayo's number three, Jimmy Butler's number four, Tyler Heroes number five, Gorn
Drogic is number six, Jay Crowder's number seven, Rajon Rondo is number eight,
and then Duncan Robinson is number nine. And I kind of feel like
Duncan Robinson belongs above Rajon Rondo as well, just he struggled with his shot
a little bit during the second round of the playoffs. I don't think that
Kyle Kuzma or Kentavia is called Well Pope, or Danny Green or Dwight Howard
or Alex Caruso belong above any of those heat players. So I think you
can make a serious argument that Miami has the next six players after those top
two, and on any given night, I think you could argue it'll be
seven, depending on what you get from Andre Goadala. I feel like that's
a possibility. Kelly Olenick has thrown some flames at times during the playoffs too,
like you can get one game out of him. So there will be
nights where it feels like they Heat might have if everyone's like on seven of
the nine best players on the court, which is absolutely huge. Why I
think that the series could be extended. What I worry about, and I
don't know if it's worried, but I don't know what ends up happening with
Miami's defense relative to how they're going to cover Anthony Davis and Lebron James,
Like, let's just say this is obviously they should play. It feels like
a lot of zone because when you're looking at how much Boston struggled at it
versus it at times, and that was with Miami like really giving them no
airspace on shooters, The Heat are gonna be able to probably blockade the paint
more against the Lakers because they're not going to be as concerned about Los Angeles
as shooters, which have to their credit, the Lakers are shooting forty percent
on wide open threes during the playoffs, and they were at like forty four
percent in the Nuggets series. I would hazard that does and hold, and
so there are Jammy is way better at contesting three point attempts than any of
the previous opponents for the Lakers, right, And I just I don't believe
KCP is going to shoot so well. Right, And I think I got
into this on the mail bag that I did solo the way that the Heat
have been when they do the two three zone and they're just like, screw
it, we're gonna put Jimmy Butler and Jay Crowder at the top like that
gets like that allows them to do a lot of things that other teams couldn't
do if they're running the same events. But looking at individual matchups, because
we will see it like there. That's the other thing with the Heat,
which this is great. They will shape shift defensively, like not in the
same quarter, but on the same possession, like because they're defenders, they're
just they're able to do that. And so when you're looking at the individual
matchups, I think it's easy to be like, well, Jimmy Butler on
le Bron Bam against Davis, and if you were designing someone in a lab
to guard Anthony Davis, it's the same when we're talking about Jannis Atintacoupo.
Isn't it bam at a Bio? But as we saw in that series,
it was Jay Crowder that got most of their reps on Jannis. Is that
going to happen in this series? Because the Lakers play so big, if
they're going to continue to roll with two centers, whether it's Dwight Howard or
JaVale McGee, do you put bam Adebayo on the center and then Jay Crowder
on Anthony Davis? And I think that matchup heavily favors Anthony Davis, and
then you could get into okay, well, then you know they could double
him, like that's obviously something to do, but where's the double coming from?
And then I feel like that also makes it really harder to guard the
lebron Anthony Davis picking rolls that would just be my guest. And so that's
one thing that I'm I don't want to say incredibly fearful of for Miami,
but I think that Anthony Davis has he has all playoffs is going to cause
some matchup problems for Miami. And maybe the silver lining there is like Anthony
Davis is shooting over forty four percent on his pull up two pointers in the
playoffs, which isn't astronomically high, but he was barely over thirty seven percent
on those same shots in the regular season, and he's hitting more of his
catch and shoot threes. He's just been an absolute monster. He's hitting more
of his unassisted looks in general. If he's going to continue to play that
way, that's even that's a problem either way. But I feel like becomes
if he's doing that while they're playing bigger, that becomes a pretty big issue
for Miami. Yeah, you know, I feel like if you're Miami,
you kind of want to be in a situation where you're forcing Anthony Davis to
be the one who beats you, because it means that Lebron isn't. So
I think I'm more willing to accept that matchup nightmare and try to work around
it. But I don't I don't expect to see as much, if any,
of the two three zone that we saw against Boston in this particular series,
because that was by putting those bigger bodies up front like they were very
much by design, trying to take Kemba Walker in particular, out of a
rhythm, just by surrounding him with bigger bodies by forcing him to not be
able to drive down the middle whatsoever, and kind of funneling everything to the
corners and the baseline like that was all designed to work against him. But
the Lakers don't have a primary ball handler beyond Rajon Rondo and Lebron James.
You're not worried about Rondo as a shooter, and you can't do that to
Lebron because he has the side is to counter it. So I don't expect
to see that as much as more traditional sets and just a lot of cross
matching. That's a good point too, I still know. I just don't
know, like even if you're going to go that direction, the whole Lakers
having a center that is an ad on the floor, I just don't know
how that's going to end up impacting Miami's defense. My guess would be that
they default to Jay Crowder on Anthony Davis in that situation. I wonder if
you could put Jay Crowder on whoever the center is too, and then just
let Bam stick with Davis just no matter who else is on the court,
and just kind of accept that Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee is going to overpower
Crowder or whoever else is attempting to guard him on a couple of possessions,
but they aren't really take over players, especially at this stage of Howard's career,
right, I guess if regardless of who's guarding him, maybe if you
get a little if it's Tyler hero Like, unless it's that Dwight Howard posting
up as a win. You can even argue that Anthony Davis posting up on
Jay Crowder is a win for you because Andy Davis is averaging over a point
per possession on post ups during the postseason, shooting fifty two percent on them.
That's incredibly high for post ups. That still amounts to a relatively inefficient
offense, and so perhaps they look at it that way. The other concern
that I was going to look at was, we've talked about a lot,
how are the Lakers going affair in the non Lebron minutes They've been winning it
with ad on the court. I'm just Lebron is averaging a career low in
playoff minutes right now. He was at thirty eight point five minutes per game
over the final three games of those the Nuggets series, and I think he
logged over forty minutes in the Game five clincher. If I'm not mistaken,
how many minutes is he playing in this series? Is he averaging over it
just it just feels like not the non Lebron minutes won't be a concern,
But it just feels like the Lakers aren't going to mess around with those minutes.
Like it's not going to be unless it's a blowout. You're not going
to see like twelve minutes of Lebron not on the floor. And that's kind
of the biggest conundrum for me, is how the minutes are going to play
out just because we haven't the Lakers path to this stage has been kind of
weird, and that they've only needed five games in each of the three series,
which theoretically should mean that they are pretty fresh all things considered for this
stage of the postseason. But on the flip side, and I will provide
the caveat here by saying that I mean no disrespect to the previous opponents,
but they haven't really played a great team yet, and I think Miami qualifies
as a great team. So I'm looking at NBA maths team power rankings now,
which take into account strength of schedule, the difficulty of the calendar,
whether they're back to backs, how close the games are together, a home
away which hasn't obviously mattered while they're all playing in the neutral site. That
is the bubble. But Portland finished that first round series and a one hundred
is an average team by this metric, anything above is better. Portland finished
at ninety nine point seven. Houston, which was still trying to reincorporate Russell
Westbrook who was very clearly hurt, finished at ninety nine point five three.
Denver, which was exhausted from three from two three to one comebacks in the
previous two series. As good as that team was, finished at ninety nine
point four four, the Heat are at one on one point eight six going
into this series. They are the best team that the Lakers have played,
and as good as Denver's future appears to be, I'm not sure that,
given the circumstances, that they really qualified as like top level competition, no
matter how competitive some of those games were, and I don't mean any disrespect
to the Nuggets, it's purely circumstantial there. But based on the numbers like
this is the toughest test and maybe the first true test that the Lakers team
has faced in the playoffs, which makes it even harder to evaluate them.
I'm with you, but I do there is a chance to me in the
series that we look back in hindsight and say Denver might have been LA's biggest
test, which seems wild, absolutely very possible. But I mean we said
it going into that series, where it's like, if these two teams were
were fresh and in similar circumstances, like, yeah, maybe we feel more
comfortable picking the Nuggets. But the mental and physical drain of two consecutive three
one comebacks in the playoffs, I mean, we saw how exhausted Jamal Murray
looked when he was told that he had to play another game two days later
after the first comeback. It was an unfair playing field for that series.
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know call issue or bullet point on this series. I'm sure to see how
and I guess this is two parter is how much center does Anthony Davis actually
wind up playing? Because this probably does tow step on the foot of what
we were just talking about before. I think every I would say the vast
majority of people believe that the Lakers are at their best when Anthony Davis is
at the five. The numbers both in the regular season and playoffs have not
supported this. It's more been dead even four hundred and eighty four possessions for
eighty at the four. In the playoffs so far, the Lakers have a
net rating of plus thirteen point nine during those times. During that time when
he plays center, six hundred and four possessions plus twelve point nine points per
one hundred possessions is their net rating. So that's like very very close in
this series specifically, though, it's more similar to the Rockets, whereas you're
going to see a lot of Jay Crowder as you're four, or just like
bam at a Baio and then all wings and guards essentially like whoever you want
to call your day fact on four. In those situations, I'm wondering if
the Lakers tried to counter that or if what we were talking about before,
if they're trying to capitalize on cross matching even just the regular, you know,
individual matchups, will they still try and stay big in part because of
what the series that Dwight Howard had against the Nuggets. I'm curious to see
how they because it's not as drastic as it was with Houston, because bam
Adebayo is more of a it's not a traditional big, but he's an actual
big, where the Houston had some variation of it's like Roco or p J.
Tucker at the five or Jeff Green at the five wherever you wanted to
say. And I just don't know how that's going to change the way that
the Lakers play, because it has seemed through these playoffs that they're going to
adjust their lineups based on the matchups that are in front of them. That
comes right down to you, Dwight Howard, starting instead of Javal McGee against
the Nuggets. This is the first series they've had where it feels like we
don't have a good answer going into it. We knew against Portland, who
was going to play use of Nurkicch and Hassan Whiteside, that they were going
to have to play a little bigger. We knew against Houston, who didn't
have a single center on the roster aside from the corpse of Tyson Chandler,
that they weren't going to And we knew against the Nuggets that you have to
go big against Nicola Yokich. This one, like because bam Adebayo is so
versatile and because he doesn't really play like a traditional center on either end of
the court. Really, I don't know, like I do maintain that just
in terms of the personnel they have that Anthony Davis with the five makes the
most sense against most opponents, and if they're eager to dictate the terms in
this series, that that's probably what they should do. But it also feels
like they can get away with so many different combinations against this team, and
the dual big one is interesting because I feel like if Miami's going to go
to his own more. The best way to probably put the most amount of
pressure on would be, can you control the defensive glass and then just get
out and run when you're grabbing rebounds? And probably the most efficient way to
control the defensive glass would be, hey, anthy Davis playing with White Howard
or even if you want to say anthy Davis playing which aout McGee and so
that will allow you to get out and run. And so while if you're
in the half court, I might argue that having anthy Davis at the five
is better if you're really looking to run. It feels like it might be
more efficient or more deadly to have the dual big lineups in there, because
you're gonna need to You're obviously gonna need Miami miss shots to make that happen.
But if you're in that situation, I would think that the dual big
lineups have more value there if you're going at it from that that perspective,
Yeah, I concur I'll be really interested to see what happens there because it's
so difficult to make a prediction about it, and this sort of I think
would also makes it more difficult. Is Miami feels like and coach Bo specifically
where he's not gonna have and I know teams would like this. They're gonna
play the matchups even when you're closing tight games. Like look at Game six
against the Celtics in crunch time, like he coach Bo had Iggy at a
Baio, Robinson, Butler and Hero on the floor, and so like Dragics
was on the bench and Jay Crowder was on the bench, and it's like
if you don't really know like who you're gonna go up against in those tight
situations, because those are two players who could just be on the floor in
crunch time, like you, I think the only constance in crunch time for
the heat or you're gonna have Bam and you're gonna have Jimmy Butler, and
then almost anything goes after that. I won't say that like a Linaker Derek
Jones Junior will be on the floor at the same time, though, Like
we're talking about a team that had Myers Leonard starting at one point, Derk
Jones Jr. Was kind of a major contributor in the regular season for them,
and then also Kendrick Nunn before the bubble was starting over. I feel
like Tyler Hero is a lock for that now instead of maybe I'm buying way
too much into recency, but he looked that good in that Boston series,
and I just I can't imagine him not being on the floor in crucial minutes
now, whether it's in place of Dragics, who looked like he was slowing
down in that Boston series, or in a dual point guard lineup, there's
I wonder if LA's athleticism could give Tyler Hero problems, But I guess you
might run into the same issue if we're talking about Dragic as well, Like
that could be the It could be a similar issue where like do you need
both those guys on the floor just to kind of vary in your ball handling
approach because Hero showing that he can. I think the beauty of playing against
the Lakers, who don't have a good backcourt at all is that they don't
have a good backcourt at all. So, like, are you really worried
about them matching up with Rajon Rondo and Contagious Caldwell, Pope and Danny Green.
There are probably places for them to hide, But I look, Danny
Green is like one of the best three point shooters in finals history, right,
So like I would think you would worry about that a little bit.
I'm just I'm just wondering if their secondary ball handlers, like you could put
them either you want to play the either or game. You want to put
them both on the floor at the same time to diverse versify your attack.
Like that's that's cool. But does LA's defense like sort of give them like
because you have like LA has Alex Caruso, they have playoff Rondo if you
want to say that playoff KCP, you have Danny Green, Like, those
are guys who could give uh. You know, even if Lebron wants to,
like if he don't, if you don't, if he doesn't want to
defend Jimmy Butler or isn't defending Jimmy Butler for some reason and you put him
on a hero or a dragic like playoff Lebron in that situation is going to
be a problem for them. So that's something else that can sertas me because
I feel like Miami's offense has been a lot better than I expected it to
be, and I'll say the same about the Lakers, who are third in
offensive efficiency for the playoffs. I believe this is part cleaning the glass so
it filters out garbage time. They're like, both these teams have have surprised
me offensively, and I think if you're looking at you know, if they
both can get out on the break, like maybe it kind of stays dead
even there. But if you're looking over the course of a series, just
in the macro, it feels like the Lakers have a better chance of maintaining
their their level of offense in the playoffs than Miami does in this matchup.
I can see that, but yeah, I mean, I just keep coming
back to this series is so weird to me because everything is pushing me towards
wanting to pick Miami. You know, the their half court defense against the
Lakers half court offense, the depth of usable talent that they have and star
level talent that they have, the coaching disparity, everything is pushing me towards
the Miami. The teams that they've they've beaten to get here compared to the
teams the Lakers have beaten to get here. But then there's Lebron And that's
what we haven't talked about yet, is like, how do you stop this
guy? He's thirty five years old and he's he's very clearly the best player
in basketball after these playoffs, Like I'm I'm not willing to hear arguments about
it again because you know, as Janice is going to be the two time
MVP and deserved both of those MVPs. But Lebron is showing yet again that
he just doesn't care as much about the regular season and you put him in
these do or die situations and there is no answer for him. Yeah,
and look, it's he's not like beating players off the dribble and traditional fashion
anymore. But he's so strong that it doesn't matter. Like he can slow
it down a notch or twenty and he'll let me ask you, let me
ask you a question on this topic. So we're launching the Crystal Basketball postseason
analysis that we've done for years at NBA Math, where we grade every single
player in the NBA on a one to twelve scale, and twelve is reserved
for the best player in the NBA. You can only give out one twelve
on your personal ballot. Who are you going to give yours too? This
year? I think it's Lebron and it's the playoffs. Have I think I've
there's two methods of thought here that are like pulling me in different directions is
one I'm very much inclined to say, like, well, how much do
we take away from the bubble, just because like this is so unprecedented and
Lebron seems like a player who's better set up to stop and start than anyone
else. At the same time, kind of since last year and then especially
after this season looking at the Bucks specifically, like I'm resigned to just reading
so much more into the playoffs because like that's when you're gonna face like the
toughest counters to what you're doing. And like, yes, the regular season
is the bigger sample size, but the postseason is one highest stakes and it's
going to be more representative of what a lot of players and teams can do
when they're given the time to be more methodical. And so after watching these
playoffs, you're seeing what happened with the Clippers, where even if you don't
want to say functionally that there's an argument against Kwhi Leonard, the behind the
scenes stuff where like if there wasn't chemistry in the locker room, some of
that has to fall on your best player, like it just does it.
That's not the kind of like leader he is, that's fine, but it's
still going to fall on him. And then seeing what was happening to Buck
the Bucks and Yannis before us was even injured, I have to say Lebron
like, there's there's a case for Yannie. I like, and if you
want to go with Kawai, it's really more so Yannest because I think he
benefits from his it feels like emotional attachment to the outcome of the regular season
as well, not on a James Harden level, but he just seems emotionally
invested in every single possession at both sides of the floor. So he still
has a case, but after the playoffs, I think it has to be
Lebron. In our preseason Crystal Basketball, Lebron actually fell to fifth behind James
Harden, Kawhi, Leonard, Steph Curry, and Jannis. Coming out of
the twenty eighteen nineteen season, we had him sixth behind Jannie, Steph Curry,
KD, James Harden, and Kauai. Going into the twenty eighteen nineteen
season, where did we have him have a weird filter on this spreadsheet?
Apparently he was first, so that was his last topping of the Crystal Basketball
Rankings, and it's it's amazing that a thirty five year old is has a
chance to reascend to that throne. He's gonna be up there for me.
And it's I mean, especially after this regular season two where it seems like
he just the Lakers had a roster that could play defense, and so he
decided to buy in defensively, and no he was I think he spent statistically
for b Ball Indexes Kristen Narsho's statistic, I think he statistically spent the most
time on number three options. If I'm not mistaken, I don't care.
He's at age thirty five, and like that was the best defense he played
since he called Miami home. And now the thing is, like with Lebron's
defense for years now, it's not about who he's guarding. Primarily, it's
about his level of buying off the ball because you see him not making the
rotations and then pointing at the guy that is wide open because he didn't make
the rotation and blaming a teammate or just not trying to jump a passing lane.
And throughout these playoffs in particular, but really throughout the regular season,
we didn't see any of that, how many how many prescient plays has he
made throughout the postseason? Whereas like, how in the world did he know
that was coming and managed to jump it to this whole converse, who is
Miami's best defender just outright against Lebron? And I think it's We're mostly going
to see Jimmy Butler, but there are going to be people that wonder whether
it's Igadala Jay Crowder. Do we even see some Bam? We do?
And that's the fun part is that they have so many guys who can actually
at least slow him down somewhat in theory on paper. Maybe I realized after
I said that that I was way less confident than what I had just said.
It's because there are so many like Plautus that we could just bestow upon
the heat and we are, and like I want to pick them. I
feel like they might be a trendy pick. It's hard. I don't like
alluding this down to I'm not betting against Lebron at this point, I'm almost
like inclined to say I'm also not betting against this version of Anthony Davis that
we've seen, where it's like, yeah, you can live with the shots
he's taking, except those shots are going in, whereas in the regular season
a lot of them weren't. So Look, the biggest knock on Anthony Davis
for years has been the lack of a takeover ability. That he needed another
star alongside him, whether it was through holiday or if the Pelicans needed to
acquire someone else, and if he had the motor and desire to be able
to lead a team on his own, well he doesn't have to be because
he's alongside Lebron and yet he's playing like he can now. I mean,
I think it's as simple as that is, Like he's answering that question right
in front of us right now. Yeah, I can't pick against them,
just yeah, but I feel like I'm going to waffle a few times on
this series, Like I just this feels like if Miami comes out and win
game wins Game one, like that feels like the type of outcome that could
kind of flip how I'm feeling about this game on my head. And the
thing I also wanted to note is so into the conference finals, in the
fourth quarter, Anthony Davis slashed sixty seven sixty ninety four. The man has
been an absolute beast in the fourth quarter during these playoffs, I think overall
looking at this, yeah, so overall in fourth quarters during the playoffs,
he's slashing sixty three, forty four eighty one. He's been just and I
think that's good. I think it's okay, it's all right, Like it's
doable, it's playable. So I'm just I think I'm stubborn in that way.
And I also want to give credit to the Lakers defense, because I
do think that they can match up, as I sort of mentioned before,
pretty well against Miami and the half court, and so I don't know what
their best lineup ends up being in this series, Like is it an Anthony
Davison the five scenario? Is it going big? It matters how you fill
out those final two spots. If you're going I'm assuming a D and Dwight
Howard would be the best big man combination for this team, and then Lebron
so the best lineup from there, like it becomes like a two man game,
and I think it would be Danny Green and Alex Caruso, but I'm
not sure, Like you could probably sneak Rondo if you want more ball handling
in there, or KCP into that conversation. I don't think Kuzma is a
member of it, even though he's played fairly well defensively for them, And
I also don't know if that terrible matchup for Kuzma. I don't think it's
gonna be great for him, but I think that will end up being I'll
go Green, Caruso, Lebron, Howard, and Ad ends up their most
important five man combination. If you remove Howard from the equation how you felt,
the fourth gets interesting if you want size, I think Kuzma and Mark
Keith Morris are the obvious picks, but again, a KCP or Rondo in
that situation could be incredibly intriguing. I think Rondo's in there for me just
because you need that extra ball handling, especially against this swarming Miami defense.
But I get the arguments against that. Roger Rajon Rondo was shooting fifty eight
point three percent in the fourth quarter from three point range in the playoffs,
just f y I also pretty decent. But just to be clear, you're
not picking the Nuggets to win this series. I don't know, maybe Nuggets.
If there's like best of nine, I mc Nuggets, but because it's
best of seven, I think I'm gonna choose between a Heat or the Lakers.
Look my Nuggets. I will say I don't deserve any credit for it
because of how much I vacillated, and I did pick against them in the
Clipper series. But my title pick for the Nuggets does not look as ridiculous
now. I caught so much crap for I was the only one to Bleacher
Report and they put up a graphic with my name. I caught so much
crap for picking the Nuggets. Most people picked the Clippers. There were some
Bucks and Lakers like scattered out there. I think there. I can't remember
if there were some Celtics there. I think there. I don't even know
if there were any Raptors there. Definitely weren't any members of the Heat.
They were one of the final four teams. That's all I'm saying. So
it does not look as egregious as it did. I don't think it should
have been egregious in the first place, but here we are. I mean,
I picked the Bucks from start to finish, and whoops, your team
didn't even make it in the second round. Out of the second round.
Excuse me. Also shouts to Dwight Howard, who might not only might Heat
win a title, but he might do someone Orlando. I still think he's
one of the lamest players just based off some of the stuff he does on
the court. But he's gonna win a title in Orlando. It's like two
birds to me, one stone right there. That's weird. I hadn't thought
about that at all, but yeah, that's that's interesting. So we're both
picking Lakers in six. Yeah, I'll say this, then the Miami Heat
win this series. If finished that sentence, the Miami Heat win this series.
If I just I have so much trouble with it because I guess if
what we're seeing from Anthony Davis is more a product of the matchups and the
rest advantage than anything else, And if that's negated against Miami and he's no
longer this world burning mega superstar who is capable of challenging Lebron James for the
throne not just on his own team but in the NBA as a whole,
if he doesn't look like that player, then Miami as a chance. I
think that's fair. I would say I could finish that in two ways.
I'll say one is if the Miami is able to just limit LA's high percentage
opportunities close to the basket. No team is attempting more shots within six feet
within five feet excuse me. During the playoffs. The other thing that I'll
note is the heat win this series. If the Lakers supporting cast doesn't hit
their their three pointers consistently, Like I don't want to simplify it down to
that much, but I actually feel like that's gonna end up being it's It's
probably something you could have followed through in each series. They've just gotten enough
of it, even though they've been one of the lowest three point shooting teams
during the playoffs. If they don't get enough of it, like if Kuzma
or Rondo or Danny Green is going cold or KCP, like if they don't
have guys the supporting cast hitting those jumpers around Anthy Davis and Lebron James and
the ball isn't in their hands, that ends up being like a ridiculously ginormous
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One word that online your online sports book experts. Let's move on, though,
Where do you want to go next to the Philly Let's go to Philly
so. Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the two things, one
of which is that the job in with the Sixers is basically Mike d'antoni's to
lose. But he also kind of noted that there's a full blown rift between
Joel Embiad and Ben Simmons. He wrote who this is what he wrote?
This is from his piece as Los Angeles Lakers player Tyron Loup won NBA titles
in two thousand and two thousand and one while playing with Hall of Famers and
Kobe Bryan and Shaquie O'Neil, who likes Simmons mbid didn't get along. So,
like just outright said it, this does this surprise you at all?
And do you think that this is an issue for the Sixers? Oh,
it doesn't really surprise me because you know, as the saying goes, where
there's smoke, there's fire, and there's been so much smoke over the years.
Does it concern me? No, not really, because if we're comparing
them to Lakers superstars who didn't get get along, like you put the right
pieces around them, and you can still win a title, you can still
win multiple titles. These guys are still so talented, and I still have
way more concerns about the ineptitude of the Philadelphia front office and putting the right
pieces around them, and letting JJ Reddick walk in, letting Jimmy Butler get
away in favor of retaining Tobias Harris, in signing Al Horford to the Mega
deal. Those are my concerns more so than whether two guys get along off
the court. We don't know if it was on the court, that wasn't
really specified in the report, But if you put the right players around these
two guys. They still have as much talent as any duo in the NBA
Lebron James and Anthony Davis notwithstanding. As long as that's true, I don't
care if they don't get along. See, this would concern me because they
don't have to write down around them right now, and it's not just something
that they can easily pivot out of. When you're looking at the Al Horford
contract, three years eighty one million, sixty nine million guaranteed left Tobias Harris
is I think four years in one hundred and forty seven point two million.
It's around that number. And if now your two best players who have imperfect
fits around them, aren't getting along, this feels like a situation where next
season, should the Sixers flame out, where they're like, don't make the
conference finals, Joe Ellenbad, I feel like starts to get a little grumpy
and request the trade like that's and that's see it happening Like that would be
he would just be the player I point to because Ben Simmons is going to
have more years left on his deal at that point. And if you even
had to come down to picking between them, and again I don't think you're
at that point. I've made this clear. I think they could still work
together if you put the right town around them. It's a question of whether
you can do that now or have you sort of box yourself into a corner.
But if you did, how to pick between them? I think you
have to pick Ben Simmons, Like I think he's the guy that you have
to build around. Even though Joel will beat he's the better player right now
just counting on and beads. Availability feels difficult, even though Simmons has had
his own injury issues, But he's going to be able to have as a
playmaker, assuming they still use him as that moving forward, he will have
inherently more influence over the offense, and I just I think it makes him
easier to build around. I wholeheartedly agree, And I think that even if
Simmons was an actual negative on offense, that the luxury of having a versatile
positionless player who made as large a defensive impact as he did this season without
the overarching injury concerns that embiad has is too important. Like Ben Simmons could
have been in the defensive Player of the Year conversation this year, I don't
think that's in any way hyperbolic to say that, No, I don't.
He certainly could have been in there, And like he's how many players can
legitimately defend all five positions right now? And maybe don't put Ben Simmons in
that if you trust him against centers, So how many players can legitimately defend
four positions? And I still think you're pus damn out of Bio Simmons Lebron.
Maybe I think og can get you four positions, He's not going to
get you five. So like he's he's just one of the most versatile defenders
in the NBA. And look and Beat is one of the most impactful defenders,
but it feels like he has an on again, off again relationship,
like with how engaged he is. And then also it's just big men are
inherently more schemable, Like if you if he can't like be around the rim,
like there's not going if there's a way to pull him out of there,
which some teams are going to be able to do, it becomes an
issue. But I would say, if you're ranking players right now, and
Beat is the better player, but it just feels like that could really tilt
pretty easily, if not pretty quickly. Two more things they have to make
some They have to make some moves over the off season, but I don't
think one of those needs to be splitting that duo up. You can still
work more ancillary moves around them and try try having one more year together.
Yeah, and look, it would be more than that if they got along,
I think. But if they don't, then that's why the clock is
on it. Like, if you can't material materially change this roster around them,
that's why I would say, like they're kind of working on a one
year shelf life, Let's go to LA, which I probably feel like we
should have started with since the Doc Rivers news was bigger. Chris Haynes of
Yahoo Sports had reported initially after the Clippers elimination that Doc Rivers' job was safe.
Now we hear what would broke the news that it was a mutual parting
that Doc Rivers is out. It's funny when all these things respawned as like
mutual partings. We saw that with Kenny Atkinson and the Brooklyn Nets. I
tend to wonder like, if there wasn't so much in the Clippers case,
it wasn't necessarily turnover, but like, if there wasn't such a change from
how they were playing last year, where the absence of real superstars and superstar
egos and there wasn't a discrepancy in the locker room and how the players were
approaching the season. Is he still there? So I'm wondering how mutual it
is. It feels like this is one of the situations where it could have
been more Doc driven than organizationally driven. A lot of people, I think,
have cited that Steve Bomber after having seen, you know, Doc be
behind these collapses. Most notably it was that twenty fifteen against the Rockets.
They were up three one, I think that was twenty fifteen, and they
ended up that they ended up blowing that. So I think there's an argument
to be made that you could explore change. I just don't know necessarily where
the upgrade is coming from. The names that have been mentioned, the biggest
one I think is Tylou, who's already there and who should be the favorite.
I would think so too, Like that's just of someone who can come
in and balance out a locker room and then a good offensive mine, Like
maybe we see more creative stuff in the Clippers next season. I would think
that he would be he personally. If I'm Philly, I would have Tyler
at the top of my list too, but it seems like that's the Antoni's
job to lose now, as as Poppy reported, which would be a fun
and intriguing fit. Yeah, I mean, if Tylu isn't the answer,
I would still like to see them look internally and promote Sam Cassell. I
would love to see him get a head coaching shot. He has long been
as a top tier candidate who just hasn't gotten that opportunity yet. The amount
of personality and drive that he would bring to this team could be important after
this latest collapse that they've endured. I would love to see Jeff Van Gundy
or Mark Jackson get a shot, but only so that they're off of my
television screen. Beyond that, I have no reasonable arguments for that. This
might be a terrible take. I really don't mind Jeff Van Gundy like his
I feel like his and maybe it's just when you hear him on the low
Post he gets a little bit more nuanced, But I feel like he does
a better job of straddling two lines during broadcast than like Mark Jackson, who
I also feel like regurgitates the same things over and over again. But maybe
that's an unfair take. I mute the TV every time Jeff Van Gundy is
on it just because I get so tired of the negative stick where he has
to complain about everything under the sun and barely ends up talking about the game
that's being called. So I Tyler was both at the top of arlest Sam
Cassell's interesting other three names that I want to see that I would be thrown
into. I'm surprised that Mike D'Antoni wasn't mentioned, just because I feel like
he could sort of glitz up the offense of it, like even though they
weren't a terrible offensive team, like it just felt like there wasn't like any
flow to it. And when you have such good players and Paul George and
Kwai Leonard and even Lou Williams, maybe that doesn't matter. But even D'Antoni
did some interesting things with the Rockets when they leaned into iceo ball with James
Harden and at first Chris Paul Kenny Atkinson feels like he might be fun there,
though I don't know if he's the personality you're looking forward to Steer Superstars
and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Since that, it does feel like that
was what led him to leave Brooklyn, at least partially the name. Look
you mentioned I Van Gundy. Give me Stan van Gundy over Jeff Van Gundy.
It just feels like based off Sandy. I agree from a coaching perspective,
but that doesn't have the added benefit of getting him off the booth because
contrary to Jeff, Stan is phenomena. That's what makes me want him in
this situation and hearing him analyze the game like he's pretty feels like he has
a more modernized approach and that might be something where he is like the best
of all worlds for the Clippers in this area. I still would put Taylou
above him, but Stan van Gundy might be my second favorite pick for this
coaching job, and I'll be interested to see if he gets any love.
I think the two favorites as of right now reported by Woe which Worth Thylu
and Jeff Van Gundy. But I'd rather see the other Van Gundy there.
But I don't want to lose him as an analyst on TNT. He's so
good. He's so good. It would be interesting if Doc Rivers ended up
with the Pelicans and Alvin Gentry ended up with the Clippers, which I actually
think would be a good fit for Los Angeles because Gentry has that offensive guru
reputation and that's where this team needs more help. They have all the defensive
pieces are ready, so if that's his weak spot, that's already solved by
virtue of the players they have on the roster, and just getting more creative
with the offensive talent that they had could be really impactful. I will say
I've never heard his last name pronounced Gentry. I've always said Gentry. Is
that wrong? I don't know. I'm too brain dead at this point.
We've been talking for too long already some forty five minutes for us, which
is really short, and that I think that's a good segue into the Well,
the last thing I want to ask you on the Clippers thing. Do
you think the Doc Rivers departure is the right move for the Clippers insofar as
they had any control over it, and you would think they had at least
some control, because if it's a mutual, like let's just assume that the
reporting is accurate here if it was mutual, or let's even assume that they
they were the ones that decided that they wanted to move on and initiated it.
Is it the right move, It's the easy move, It's the easiest
scapegoate. But coaching changes are always difficult because it matters who's available. And
I do think that right now there are enough reasonable and good options available without
that many appealing openings that yeah, it can be justified. I'll hesitate to
say it was the right move because Doc Rivers is an upper echelon coach and
whenever you part with that, it's a big deal. I think the most
full throated endorsement I can give it is that it wasn't a wrong move.
I can't remember who said this, so I apologize to not crediting them.
But they also someone posed the question of how many teams have actually like do
they regret getting rid of their past head coach? And the situations that came
up where Dave Yager for Luke Walton seems like pretty terrible. The bulls both
instances like he went from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg that didn't seem to work
out, and I would argue Hoiberg to boiling is the boiling is the worst
move there. But now they have a different coach there, so it doesn't
really seem like a ton of teams regret their coaching decisions. Even the stuff
that's going on with the Knicks. It's like the Sun's kind of picked up
the igor Ka Kashkov awkward fit there, like picked up the pieces from there,
So maybe if you want to name that. But they get into Monty
Williams, so I think is by far and upgrade. We'll see how the
Knicks end up doing with Tibbs there. And that's actually a good point is
it doesn't seem like there's been like these major flops. I mean, Brooklyn's
taking a chance and Steve Nash that felt like getting rid of Atkinson felt like
I thought it was a bad move at the time. We'll see how Nash
does knowing that he'll have Kyrie and Kadi's ear. But that's a fair point
to analyze as well as it doesn't really seem that any very few teams anyway
are like really like are any of them like one or two or three are
in dire straits or should really miss their their most recent head coach. In
general, my philosophy with this stuff is that I think NBA teams and really
teams in every sport are too quick to pounce on retreads who are more middling
options. Like if you if you can hire Mike D'Antoni, who has a
lot of demonstrated success, if you can hire Doc Rivers now who has a
lot of demonstrated success, go for it. But otherwise, like taking a
chance is not a bad thing. So if you want to give Tyler his
first real opportunity to be a head coach, because I'm not counting coaching the
Lebron James led Cleveland Cavaliers because that was just weird from the start, if
you want to give Sam Cassell his first opportunity, if you want to give
Chauncey Billups his first opportunity, Like those are those are the kind of names
that I would rather teams go after instead of like the second and third tier
retread options. No, I think I think that's an absolutely fair point.
Is that, and it pretend it depends on the organization, But when it's
like a bigger market where the team is so ready to win, those feel
like the squads that are most likely to lean on those coaching options that you
you were just talking about. Agreed our last thing, So Victor Oladipo,
this comes from the athletics. Jared Weiss wrote that it's basically known that Oladipo
wants out of Indiana. I was about to say Boston, and I have
no idea what I was about to say Boston. So one we did say
at the top, how tired we were? Yeah, And so before we
get into I'll throw some trade packages out you. They're not they're like off
the cuff ish because I don't have any written down. But I've given a
lot of thought to Oladipo trades, Like what do you make of this?
Are you surprised? Do you think that the Pacers should end up moving him?
Yes, I would absolutely move him while his value is still high.
Because as much as I like Victor Oladipo on and off the court, as
much as I'm rooting for him to succeed, the resume isn't that impressive at
this point. You know, he is a two time All Star. He
made the All NBA team in twenty seventeen eighteen. He has demonstrated defensive excellence
when he's healthy, but at this point, more of his career has been
spent searching for that level than actually operating at that level. He's now twenty
eight years old, coming off that major leg injury. He struggled once he
was on the court this season, albeit in a weird situation without much continuity
or ability to get into a rhythm. So yes, I would move him
for the best return package that I can get because I'm concerned that one more
year of this lackluster post injury production is going to detonate his trade value and
you're not going to be able to get anything, or he'll just leave in
free agency for nothing. I would agree pretty much across the board there.
He's not It doesn't seem like he's a player that Indiana wants to max out
anyway. He doesn't feel like they made some decisions over the off season,
like staying Malcolm Brogden with the idea that Oladipo was a long term piece for
them in mind. But it doesn't feel like if he came out and you
kept him through last season and he's you know, two seventeen, two and
eighteen Victor Oladipo, then yeah, that's more appealing but as you've already alluded
to the sample size, he has a much larger sample size of not being
an All NBA player than he does of being an All NBA caliber player.
And that's looked even in Indiana. That's true, Like, don't even look
at the rest of his career, and before he suffered his right quad injury,
like he wasn't at the twenty seventeen twenty eighteen level, and he was
trying to play through it at first, which contributes to it. But he
wasn't getting to the rim as often more problematically, like they're his pull up
jumper just wasn't falling at the rate that it previously previously was. He came
back, he kind of weeded out the long twos in his game. Maybe
that makes you feel or some of the long twos, I should say,
and like introduce some more like ten to sixteen footers, and then took more
of his shots from threes, Like maybe that makes you feel a little bit
better about it. But when you don't know the player he's going to be,
and if he really wants out, I think you have to look at
moving him. And I would ultimately move him. What's tough about it?
Though, is that without him. I don't know that you look at it
and say, well, we have this blue chip cornerstone. You have to
feel that that's demands Sabonis and is he a top twenty five player? Like
is that his ceiling? My guests would be no, but like maybe he
wasn't all start this past season and so maybe you are that bullish on him.
Like That's where the trade from gets interesting, is that you might almost
you're not really in a position to start over after paying Turner and Sabonis and
Brogden and even Lamb who's probably gonna miss most of next season. So that's
the dilemma that that indies in, is that you have to get a return
where you're probably not gonna get another star I wouldn't think, unless you're like
a distressed asset star, which I don't think they should be going after a
you know, a Blake Griffin like that's not the guy like for them and
a crazy awkward fit anyway, So what they get back for him becomes super
interesting because I don't think they would look at a package necessarily built around future
prospects, or maybe they would because they were a playoff team playing like one
without all the DEEPO. And so if you're like, well, let's just
get some cost controlled assets and picks, that might be a frame of mind
that they take and like, maybe we'll find that blue chip cornerstone and develop
him rather than try and trade for one where the odds are overwhelmingly likely against
them getting that player. I will say, and you are free to you
in roughly twenty thirty. Look back and check this statement. I do think
that this is a trade, an upcoming inevitable trade that is doomed to be
horribly mis evaluated from a retroactive perspective, because he is going to be an
expiring contract, with the injury concerns already twenty eight we don't quite know what
he's going to get. He's not going to bring back a huge package.
So either that's not going to be a notable enough package if he does not
experience a career resurgence to show up in these retroact of trade evaluations, or
he's gonna blossom and the trade package is gonna look shoddy compared to what Indiana
should have gotten for him. And we're going to criticize the Pacers franchise for
not getting more because we don't remember the full context. Just it has the
makings of one of those where articles written ten years from now are just not
going to do justice to the actual situation. Yeah, I would. I
would think if you're going to be more granular about it though, that most
people would recognize that. But you're you're you're probably just dead on like it's
gonna be. It's like we killed them for the Paul George return. But
I feel like there are people that are gonna and that turned out to be
fine, I guess, or what they were trying to do, But it
does feel like, yeah, there could be that perception publicly that they mess
up the Victor Oladipo trade, which I probably won't. You have the mind
depending on what they get, Like if you end up trading him for just
cap relief like or something like a non if the package would have to be
truly terrible for me to not see the thinking behind it for them with that,
even if it is truly terrible, like I think you can still see
the thinking because something terrible, as long as it's not going to be on
your long term books, is still going to be better than a year of
lackluster production and then a walk in free agency. So with that in mind,
let me just throw some teams out here with some baseline trade packages.
I'm going to start in Atlanta actually, because I think he'd be a fantastic
fit next to Trey Young. Would you give up? And they just have
so much cap space to burn, So like, if if Indiana really wants
that, Clint Capella or Dwayne Deadman is like salary filler, Okay, fine,
but like they don't need to give that up. Are you willing to
give up two of DeAndre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Kevin Herder and number six
as the meat and potatoes of a Victor Oladipo package. I was prepared going
into this game to just say no across the board because I am so concerned
about the Oladipo return. But I'll say yes to that one because the fit
is so ideal alongside Trey Young if he can be even eighty percent of what
he was during that twenty seventeen eighteen season. Couple that with how many second
tier prospects they have and the fact that number six in this draft doesn't seem
particularly valuable because the class itself does not carry such a sterling reputation. Sure,
I would give up to two of that list that would be That would
be my like, I don't know pause for Atlanta, but because the number
six pick just doesn't have that much sway, I feel like you would look
at they're gonna want Cam Reddish and DeAndre Hunter or it has to be something
like DeAndre Hunter number six and then a future pick protected. I think I
would probably still do that, but I do too, but again, that's
a huge risk. I just don't know if you're ever going to get a
crack at another what Oladipo theoretically could be, and you don't need him to
be the best version of Oladipo next to Trey Young. And that's what it
comes down to for Atlanta in particular. Because of those prospects, and you
can include the number six pick as a prospect, none of them feel like
they have like top twenty player potential. Atlanta has a ton of good supporting
pieces around Trey Young, but is bereft of a second star, and Oladipo
at least can be that second star. Yeah, I just respect to John
cons would you prefer to have Drew Holliday under the same framework. Yes,
I'm probably with you there. There's I'm interesting, can trust the defense more,
I trust the leadership more, I trust the offense more. His age
doesn't fit the timeline as well. But if you are looking to keep Trey
happy and try to avoid going down this route that we see with so many
superstars and smaller or less smart key markets, because Atlanta isn't really a small
market per se, then yeah, like I think I think you can make
the immediate play there. Yeah, I would. I would advise them against
trying to keep Tray Young happy because he's not going to turn down to the
max. Deals are restricted to free agent. But I think it just doesn't
happen. Christophs Perzin is threatened to do it, and he probably never was
going to do it, and New York reacted anyway. But I would agree
I'd preferred Drew Holiday Boston. Maybe that's why I had Boston on the brain
when I was saying this. Gordon a word number fourteen and number twenty six
for Oladipo and Doug McDermott. Nah, I don't think so. I think
you've seen enough from Gordon Hayward to be convinced that he can still play at
a high level. And there's not much of a reason to mess with that
young core. Even if you're not taking pieces away from the young core,
you're still taking opportunities away from them. If you put the ball in Oladipo's
hands more, I think Hayward's a better fit with that team. I'd probably
go. If I'm Boston, I would do it. I think if I
was India would give me pause, even though Hayward would be a good fit
there. I think what we kind of saw in the series against the Heat
is that they could kind of use another like high level like creator and shooter.
And maybe you're looking at as as well. You know, Hayward is
probably gonna be cheaper in free agency after next year, assuming he doesn't like
extend or whatever this summer. I would totally understand that. Look at it,
and maybe you're getting a little bit smaller too. And Aladipo has his
own injury concerns. But I kind of feel like, I feel like you
raise your ceilings of stand sleep for the next three to five years with Oladipo
over keeping Hayward and either beyond next season retaining him or just letting him walk.
The Brooklyn Nets are my next team. They're in the market for a
third star. Now here's what's interesting. I would be I would not give
up Caris Lavert in a wouldn't either Victor Oladipo trade. But I feel like
if you went Torrian Prince and Spencer Dinwoody number nineteen and then another pick is
that something in the heart, you would do well. I don't know if
Indy does it. I don't know if Indie does it unless they truly are
desperate because there are no better offers coming in. But yeah, if I'm
Brooklyn, like yes, please, if I can get Oladipo without parting with
Lavert, hell yeah, And I think I'm doing that too. And look,
there are other things you could do aside from give them two. First,
give them Spencer Dinwoodie and Torrian Prince, who's is definitely overpaid. But
like the way that Indy does with Wings who have like any zemblance of a
jump shot, like he'll probably end up being really good there, And then
I wouldn't give them like a third first round pick like distant out. But
you do have Musa, you do have Rodions, Kurups, like if you
could throw them, even Nicholas Claxton, like there are those interesting, but
look, you could throw in Timothy Luil Caberreau, who was really good for
them. They have him on a non guarantee deal from one point eight million.
I absolutely think they should keep them. So I think from what I'm
looking at is two first Spencer Dimwoody, Torian Prince, and then something else
that's not a first round pick. Like that's the package. And if I'm
Indie, I consider it because Spencer Dinwoody's really good, and I guess you
worry about the defensive trade off there because he's probably only serviceable. But Indie
seems to cobble together if Dan Burke is still going to be there on the
staff, like they just seemed like t J. Warrens Now like this competent
defender, and like Boyan Madanovitch was a competent defender for them. So I'm
not worrying about it too much. But I think my guess is that Brooklyn
would have a semi realistic shot of getting Oladipa without including Lavert. I don't
include Lavert, and so maybe that is a deal breaker for the Pacers,
But I also don't necessarily think it should be, just because of the injury
risk and the contract. I don't know what the other packages out there are
going to look like, plus a few of the nets when has giving up
a bunch of future first round picks for a better and ever gone wrong,
right, that's totally fine. Look, and if you if that's loosely protected,
like if we're talking twenty twenty two, loosely protected, that's like an
interesting pick if you're indeed, and I know front officers aren't going to think
that far out because which front officers have that type of job security. But
there's a chance that the Kevin Durant Kyrie Irving situation can busts. There's a
chance there's also a chance that Kevin Durant is not that Kevin Durant we remember
when he comes back from an Achilles rupture and arguably, yeah, like arguably
could be better than you expect. And arguably Victor Oladipo adds to the combustibility
of it just because of his right quad. Yeah, this team I don't
want to spend too much time on just because I'm not sure if they have
the like surrounding assets to go get him. But Dallas, if you're using
Tim Hardaway Jr. As an expiring anchor, like you can include this year's
after the draft, you can trade number eighteen whoever they take there, and
like you have, I don't know what you include on top of that,
Like I probably wouldn't want to give up Dorian Phinney Smith just because he's so
important to guarding the bigger defensive wings that you have. You have Seth Curry,
but I don't know that I would want to give him up in this
either. That none of those guys are better than Victor Oladipo, but they're
so important to what like the team is. And I don't know how much
you should be eating into your depth around Luca nan Jich for Oladipo. I
feel different if this was Drew Holiday. So here's my thing with Dallas,
regardless of the package, is that you've already given up so many assets to
get Christops Porzingis on this team. You have limited cap space, you have
limited flexibility to make trades. You have to nail the acquisition of that third
star. If it's Drew Holiday, I feel better about it, But there's
too much uncertainty with Oladipo for me to want to shoot my shot with a
package for him. Because you are not going to get another chance if you're
a Dallas to build right team around Chris Stops and Luca, I mostly agree
with you. What I'm thinking from it is is that Oladipo, based off
what he could get in his next deal, like Dallas can afford to add
kind of a semi expensive player, and if you think he's gonna end up
at around twenty twenty one million, again, there are things that they could
do to then go out and carve out close to max caps base the following
summer, in which case maybe you're in play for Yanni's attend to Kumpo.
That's why I think about it, Whereas with the Drew Holiday, like I
feel like he ends up costing more than Oladipo at this point or opts in
and he's making almost thirty million dollars and that kind of hamstrings you. I
think about it also because you can let him walk, and if it's not
costing you a twenty twenty five first round pick, which is the first future
first round pick that they could trade because twenty twenty one and twenty twenty three
are going to New York, if it's not costing you that I consider it.
But yeah, I think I would You're right that they have to nail
it because they've already played some of their best hands. Yeah, the next
team and I'm I only have a couple left nuggets are interesting to me.
I think people are going to argue that they shouldn't do anything drastic after making
it to the Western Conference Finals. I would argue that it's going to be
a lot harder to get back there next season, when the Warriors are at
least going to be better. Maybe one of the up and coming teams hit,
like whether it's the I kind of worry about the Grizzlies, but maybe
it's the Pelicans, Maybe it's the Suns. For all we know, the
Blazers are going to be healthier. I'm not putting them under the up and
coming section. The Rockets should still be okay, the Lakers are going to
have the Clippers. You're going to have, So I think it's harder to
get back there. And if you can use Gary Harris as the anchor,
like, is there you know Gary Harris and Will Barton and a first for
Olidibo and Doug McDermott, is that something you're considering if you's if you can
get him without giving up Michael Porter Junior. Are you doing it? You
took the words out of my mouth. If you can get him without diving
into your untouchable assets, which are yokitch Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior and
Monte Morris, than you do it? Like how I snuck Monte Morris into
that? What if they want Monte Morris though he's good, he's gonna be
a free agent in twenty twenty one, then yeah, yeah, that's mostly
mostly a joke. Monte Morris was very good for them at moments during the
conference finals. If you don't have to like have him, he gets like
a little bit like flustered. It feels like when he's in the lane and
in traffic. But he's so good. He's just so good. I would
agree with you there though, because I feel like there there's a risk involved
there. But if you're not giving up Michael Porter Jr. Like you can,
I think you can let Victor Olad people walk after next season. And
it's like not a huge hit because I don't know how much value that Gary
Harris contract has. And that's also why it's weird for Indiana. Maybe they
trust that he'll be better with them. It also is there might be something
to be said like if you treat Gary Harris and Will Barton in this deal,
like that's a lot of your your wing depth and you have to take
back other money in return. But that's something that they could look at.
If Jeremy Grant's coming back, maybe you're not worried about it as much.
The next team I think you knew this was coming is the Golden State Warriors.
I don't necessarily know what the framework is. I think you've already said
you wouldn't give up this year's pick, the Minnesota pick for Victor Oladippo.
I wouldn't, and then you can get more for them, or you can
just use them. I think if you can build it, if you can
build it around like Andrew Wiggins and something else, sure well. I think
the most thought process would be, can you trade for more expensive player or
using the trade exception and then flip that player with the pick to Indiana at
some point because you can't. I don't think Indiana want Wiggins now. If
you could do it, I would do number two in Wiggins. You know,
for Oladipo in a heartbeating, you probably need to if you're Golden State
take back more money there, since Wiggins makes so much. I would do
that in a heartbeat if I was going State, and I would trade the
number two pick for him Minnesota's pick. It is where it gets weird.
I've looked at is their framework where if you're Indiana, I want to know
if this makes sense, there has to be other parts involved. But if
you are trading Victor Oladipo and Miles Turner to the Warriors, are you doing
that? If you're getting number two the Minnesota pick another pick and you're also
taking back Andrew Wiggins's salary, there are there's other money in there, but
it won't be like long term or crippling. But is that a package you're
considering, or is Andrew Wiggins is just too steep? And now at this
point, I don't know what Miles Turner's value is, but he has three
like solidly priced years left on his deal. Yeah, I think it's I
think it's too much. I'm still so hesitant with that Wiggins contract. I'm
probably with you that you can't get both. But I would trade number two
in a heartbeat if it meant getting Aladipo back. I'd take that swing if
I'm Golden State. The team I think is gonna be mentioned the most is
Miami, just because they've been cited as a destination for him. They do
have some interesting salary matching pieces when you look at let's assume Kelly Olynnock opts
into his contract and then you have Andrea Godala one year fifty million yet left
with the team option on year number two. What like, are you trading
Duncan Robinson or Tyler Hero for Victor Oladipo at this point? No? No,
If you require Oladipo, does that mean you're not bringing back or On
Drogics on that one year balloon deal that seems so inevitable? Are you no
longer making a play for other guys on those one year deals like that?
I would not alter with the fundamental makeup of this team, even if it
does allow you to get another top tier talent on an expiring deal. That
isn't going to mess with those twenty twenty one free agent pursuits. Like they're
in the finals. They looked really good getting to the finals, Like,
there's no need to make a massive sway you here. I will say that
you can keep Crowder and drag it on huge one year deals and still trade
for Oladipo. I'm not giving up Hero or Duncan Robinson for it because if
I'm the heat, I think the cap space, like because Oladipo's expiring,
which fits into what they're doing. So like, if you can get him
for Kendrick Nunn pick number twenty in this draft and then olink like or even
Igodala like, whichever one they prefer, I would do it. But like,
if you need to be sure, but that's the worst package we've heard
yet, Yeah, Igodala, Kendrick Nunn and pick number twenties like they would
have to love stand out of that is the number twenty pick in an awful
draft? Fair enough? Do you think Milwaukee has the asset firepower to get
involved in this discussion? No, not really, because it's the same situation.
It's like, is Eric Bledsoe or George Hill really going to sell you
when the other thing you're getting as a non lottery first round pick in a
bad draft? Yeah, I don't see. I don't see the package being
enticing enough. The reason that they can get in play on someone like Chris
Paul is because the financial numbers are still so cumbersome and aren't just expiring.
You're not going to get that for for a one year deal, So you
wouldn't do if you're Milwaukee, you wouldn't do Bledsoe Dante and a future first
for APO eighties. But sure, but I think it's similar to I would
do it if I'm Milwaukee, but I would hang up the phone if I'm
Indiana. Oh you're that low on a future pick from Milwaukee at this point,
I believe in twenty twenty four, Oh future pick? Yeah, I
mean still like it's It's just that's such a tough sell to the Pacers fan
base saying like, hey, like, here's this first round pick four years
from now for a guy who's been the face of our franchise. I think
what their best bet would be, can you find a third team that like
actually wants Eric Bledso and would give a little something for him, like one
of the Caps based team if it's Charlotte or Atlanta like him where they're not
gonna you know, Atlanta's not giving up cam Reddish for him, but are
they giving up like a protected first, Like maybe that makes the package a
little bit more intriguing for Indie I don't. I don't know. I would
I would say that that's probably on the lower end. This is my final
team, although I would I didn't kind of want to throw in Toronto as
a dark horse, but I just don't with the way their free agency books
are, I just and how they're going to prioritize cap space in twenty twenty
one, I don't know like what they have that actually interests Indiana Like Norman
Powell and A first is the framework is just not gonna do it Portland.
I thought about, like you can build stuff around Trevor Ariza non guaranteed salary
at twelve point eight million, so that's like your main salary anchor. Then
you have Anthony Simon's throw in there, even though we had a bad year.
I don't think Zach Collins is of any like real value to Indie if
they're keeping Turner and sabonus. It gets interesting if you're trading Turner somewhere else,
But like, is there partial framework and maybe even Hood, like just
to deepen your wing rotation because he's cheap, Like if you're working with Areza
Hood Simons and pick number six, seen, is that at least a starting
point or no, Like, is that just on the super low end of
the spectrum of this And I'll say the caveat of this if I'm Portland Gary
Trent Junior is absolutely untouchable in this scenario. Yeah, I think it's it's
on the cusp of a starting point, which I don't know that it's really
anything more than that. Like I think I feel like you're gonna end up
needing to throw in some future picks there. But I just I don't like
to fit in Portland. I love it. Give me the three, like
if you're gonna bring Melo back, Like, yeah, all right, it
gets bad, but like go smaller, like Oladipo is gonna give you some
good wing defensive minutes. Anyway, Maybe it doesn't make sense to trade two
wings when you need wings so badly, but if you're still gonna use your
mid level. I that this was like my asking Oladipo to play off the
ball exclusively on offense. I think that could end up helping exclusively. No,
but like we've seen what Dame can do it points off the ball,
and so like the minutes to navigate, like you're almost gonna be in a
situation where one you'll never not have any of those three on the court,
and most of your minutes are gonna have two of McCollum and Willard and Oladipo
on the floor. Like that's offensive hell fire for defenses. So that feels
like more of a luxury move though for a team that isn't quite to the
stage where it can have luxury moves, probably more out there. But if
I was Portland, I would look at the asking price. I think,
look, I honestly feel like there are teams that could get in this that
we don't really know about because of just the situation with Oladipo, the injury
and the contract, like maybe Sacramento gets involved or something weird. Charlotte,
what are they giving? That's the question, you know, are you willing
to part with picks for him? Which they probably shouldn't be, But if
the asking price goes low enough, that's a that's a destination where I think
he could be a lot of fun because it's similar to that Portland fit,
but it's taking more of a flyer and a guy who can be your primary
scorer because you don't quite trust DeVante Cram and Terry Rosier. But it seems
like a fun, fun, potential destination for a team that's motivated to move
out of that middle class, maybe even Philly if you can like sort of
glamor up the your main salary filler, which is going to have to be
I wouldn't It's gonna have to be Tobias or Al Horford, and preferably to
Bias, because Indy would have an actual need for him, Like does as
a starting point, you're gonna have to take back o their salary, but
Tobias Thyble another first, like say you're Smith can be in there, Like
can they get in this conversation at all? Do you need to have Josh
Richardson as well? In which case the money gets so complicated because it's just
so much money coming out of Philly. My guests would be no that there.
It would be like an intricate three team trade. And I don't know
that I'd want to give up Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris for an old depot
plus a pick plus Batist. That's probably something I wouldn't do. But he
would actually be a good fit in Philly. I think like for what they
need, I could see that for sure. That does it for us though
way longer than I expected on this the visual old Depot trade back and just
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