If we cut and we do it too early, that can spur more inflation,
which is going to drive prices back up. If we raise, that's
going to obliterate markets. Because we saw what happened in twenty twenty two,
and so it's like one of those things that they were smart. I think
they just all retire. Right now, you're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome you are listening to
watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well,
they were in the last day of February. Just got some important numbers out
from the Fed, the PCEE personal consumption expenditures and let's talk with our good
friend Eddie Gifford find out what that number is telling us. Now, Eddie,
welcome back. Thank you for having me getting Carrie. Yeah, I
mean we kind of had a foreshadowing because last month CPI and PPI were harder
than expected, so everyone revised the print for this and so everything ended up
coming in in alignment today. The issue that we have with that is when
you look at core PCE, it's at point four percent. Now, if
we were to annualize or extrapolate that out, then that would mean four point
eight percent over the course of a year. And keep in mind the defense
target is two percent. So what it's telling us right now, you know,
and we don't know, is this a blip? Is CPI PPI prit
and the pc pray is that a blip? Or is inflation starting to come
back? And you know, the interesting thing is that personal incomes went up,
but spending went down. So I think that even the concealer is kind
of like uncertain right now. And I do not envy the FED right now,
Carrie, do not envy them at all. Yeah, Well, they're
kind of a ton between a rock and a hard place. What do you
think they're going to do? They're already kind of pulling back on the interest
rate cuts and there seems to be suffering the result of it. Right Yeah,
I think that what they're going to try to do for as long as
possible is absolutely nothing. They're in this little like got the box, like,
well, you know, we already know how things are doing at the
current rates. If we cut and we do it too early, that can
spur more inflation, which is going to drive prices back up. If we
raise, that's going to obliterate markets because we saw what happened in twenty twenty
two, and so it's like one of those things that they were smart.
I think they just all retire right now. Hey, they did a pretty
good job of getting getting where we're at. But definitely the market as usual,
well, the market doesn't like uncertainty, and so at least if they
do nothing, then you know they're they're not like making the market uncertain and
read it in either direction. But it does put us in a scenario where
we probably see some sideways action for a while until we kind of know what's
happening. I think that the AI run up is kind of like shitting exhaustion
right now. So you know, there's probably another sectors that may take the
lead there, we just don't know which ones yet. Uh. And you
know we're heading the march, and historically things tend to break in march,
so there's that. So there's definitely a lot of stuff to be worried of
the fact that the backstop FED put in place last March is expiring this March,
so that'll be interesting to see if that affects the regional banks and the
baking sector in general. Right. So, I mean it seems like,
you know, we're just getting like half the story here. You know that
they're just telling us one thing, but we're really they're really not being honest
with the American public, are they. Well, I mean, you just
look at the way that CPI is calculating. It's calculated differently than it was
the last time that we sought the saw these types of bouts of inflation that
the numbers would be much higher. They still calculated it the way they did
in the seventies. So you know, right there, I think that the
American public understands that, you know, things aren't only four percent more expensive.
You know, there are a lot more expensive than that. And the
other thing they keep telling us is that inflation is coming down. That's a
lie. Inflation is slowing. You know, it stacks on top of each
other. So yeah, maybe it's slowing, maybe it's only four percent over
the last twelve months, but we got to stack that on top of like
ten and twenty and then we got compound interest, and so people are paying
thirty to forty percent more than they were three years ago. We're the same
stuff, and I think that's starting to hit the pocketbook. I think that
we're hitting the credit limits for a lot of people. You know, Unfortunately,
we don't have an unlimited amount of credit like the United States government does.
And you know, the thing that scares me about all this is this
whole like find out hey later thing. Yeah, every time that there's like
a purchase on your credit card, like two thousand dollars or more, you
get this pop up that says, hey, do you want to pay this
over the next six months with no interest? And I just think that like
all those things will pile up. I don't know like when it's going to
crack, but we are in a situation where the fat is sitting here wondering
what to do, and on one side of the fence, inflation comes back
and they have to start raising. On the other side of the flats,
something breaks, and that's why we see rapid rate cuts. Both of those
scenarios are no good for markets. And you know, but at the same
time, you can't just run away from the markets. We've had had this
like historic bull run that we haven't seen a long time since like two thousands,
So it's very very biblesque. But bubbles can grow for and inflate for
a long time, and so you know, it's okay to kind of ride
the waves of the speak, but you it's got to make sure you got
some exits in there to protect yourselves because when this thing turns, it's always
one of those things where it's slow and then all of us suddy and it
accelerates very rapidly to the downside because of the lack of liquidity. So try
with cautious and just make sure that you're staying nimble. All right, So,
speaking of bubbles, what are you thinking about cryptocurrencies now? On Bitcoin?
Well, you know, I wasn't a believer at first in bitcoin.
I don't know if if I'm a believer in holding it yet, but I
think that if it's not potentially part of your portfolio, you're making a mistake
from the standpoint that it's very tradable and the moves are are you know,
typically rapid and violate, and so as I was saying, earlier. If
we're if we have profit targets and we have stops, you can make a
lot of money and you don't have to be on the whole ruler was to
ride of the big one hundred percent up and then the eighty percent down and
then and then playing that game. So I think that advisors that it would
be smart for them to start including this in portfolio. I think that that,
you know, investors, I think that having some of it in the
portfolio can serve as a good diversia fire. But I don't think we're at
a point where we own it. Get I think that we're still at a
point where we trade it. Of course, there are you know, it's
been opened up to a lot more investors because of the recent uh SPOT ETF
approvals. Sure, and everyone keeps talking about the bitcoin having that's happening in
the next couple of months, and and that's uh generally speaking, ben a
catalyst for bull markets in bitcoin. So there there there is some merit there
to at least like trading it within a portfolio or you know, wrap it
in, wrapid out pet stuff. But if you're going to own it,
I mean it's it's more volatile than anything you've ever held, So it'll be
a an emotional you may become an emotional basket case if you're not used to
that type of stuff. Well, it looks clear to me right now.
It's getting It hit close to sixty three thousand today as we speaking on February
twenty ninth, and now it's pulled back a little, just under sixty two.
It's obviously going to go into record territory here. I think there's no
question about it, is there. I think there's rusty behind it. I
think that you know, obviously, like the print is behind us, and
we don't really have anything else until mid March. From an inflationary standpoint,
especially if the next inflation prey ends up being like less than expected, you
know, that's obviously good for technology. But we've seen bitcoin react very favorably
to decreasing rates and so that and having and more people getting into it with
the spat ETFs, it would surprise me if it doesn't hit new highs.
But we have been on this almost vertical trajectory and that's scared all bet Yeah,
it surely is in parabolic. It's called parabog for a reason because it
goes up really fast and then it goes down the problem exactly, yes,
and that problem can be a big problem for your portfolio, if you're on
the wrong end of the problem, right, it's correct, all right,
So precious metals their whole at least, gold is holding pretty steady in that
two thousand plus range. Yeah, I think gold is the main thing to
watch here. You know, everybody is everybody's talking about bitcoin and you know,
store of value and all this that I in my opinion, that's garbage.
The the bitcoin is not a store of value. It is an investment
and up and down, and that's how you know there there isn't actually something
behind it. You know, it's still a technology. Now it is a
medium for exchange. So I mean that that can be very beneficial to a
lot of people, especially outside the United States that maybe don't have I made
even exchange. But it comes down to it, you watch gold. If
gold continues to creep up, and we see gold breakthrough and go to that
twenty two twenty three one hundred level, then we probably see something break in
the economy. And you know, gold generally speaking is a leading indicator,
and so when we start to see that thing rise, especially when we're in
an elevated INTERESTCT environment where it doesn't look like they're cutting anytime soon. That
means the rise is not really the illustrate. It's the rise is related to
fear. And if that's the case, then it's definitely important to start paying
a little bit closer attention to your portfolio. Yeah, no question about it
there, or sure and all right, So what's an investor supposed to do?
Do you just pull out of the market now and take your marvels and
go home or what are you supposed to do here? Well, if you've
been if you were smart enough to be in since like last January, and
you you rose and you wrote in video all the way up like you know,
a couple of doubles, then yeah, there's no problem in taking your
money and setting aside and airing you know, some some interest because we're still
getting over five percent on treasuries right now, on short term treasuries. But
in general, I think that you just have to have balance. Yeah,
you know, you have to have a portfolio that ends and flows. You
have to have stuff in there that believe your portfolio. If if you're wrong,
right, but I don't feel like you can run away from this thing.
Yet I feel like you need to continue to stay invested, but you
need to make sure that you've got stops and targets and lace. You need
to make sure that you have some type of insulator and that we're porfolio to
protect you. And you know, the easy answer, generally speaking, would
be something like treasuries. Well that's only if something breaks. If the reason
something breaks is because the interest rates go higher, that's going to make clout
or just like it did in twenty twenty two, and then you've got to
start looking into some market control or managed future type stuff. So it's just
got to have a portfolio that looks a little bit different than the portfolios looked
over the last twenty years for sure. Okay, all right, Eddie,
tell us where do we find you on the web these days? Easiest way
he just jump on and google me Eddie Gifford. That's Eddie with a Y
at Gifford at g I F F O R D of course at Eddie Gifford
or Attactive Wealth Match slash Eddie Dash Gifford. That's where you can kind of
get to know me and how I do things and all of that good stuff.
But we're here for you. We know that it's a scary time.
We know that there's a lot of stuff out there that can go wrong,
and because of that, you know, we're willing to be here and answer
questions, even that's even if that means you don't become a client. We
just want to be a resource self, all right. Hey, well,
we always appreciate you coming on. You got a question for Eddie or myself.
The email address is k l at Kerrie LUTs dot com. The link
to Eddie's site is in the show notes of this interview on Financial Survival Network
dot com. While you're there, sign up for your free newsletter Eddie.
Always a pleasure. Thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to you again soon.
Awesome. I appreciate it. Thank you, thanks for listening to Carrie
Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
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