1 00:00:16,879 --> 00:00:20,440 We're back with another edition of the Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emily Kashinsky, 2 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,559 culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the show 3 00:00:23,559 --> 00:00:27,399 at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on exit fdr LST. 4 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,839 Make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts, and of course to the 5 00:00:30,839 --> 00:00:34,880 premium version of the Federalist dot com as well. Today we are joined by 6 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,880 Vance Gin. He is the president of Gin Economic Consulting. He's also the 7 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,560 host of Let People Prosper That is a podcast. Vance. First thing I'm 8 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,880 going to do is ask you to tell us where people can follow your work 9 00:00:47,039 --> 00:00:50,759 listen to the podcast. That would be fantastic. And also, you know, 10 00:00:50,759 --> 00:00:53,119 if you could tell us a little bit about the work that you did 11 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:58,000 at the Office of Management and Budget during the Trump administration. I think you 12 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,920 said it was twenty nineteen to twenty twenty, that would be a great place 13 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,840 to start. There is no shortage of news that could use your experience. 14 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:07,680 That's right, that's right. Well, it's a pleasure with you and I've 15 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,560 I'm a listener of your show, so it's really great to be on. 16 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,280 Yeah, So everybody can find me at Vance scan dot com. That's where 17 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,359 I have my podcast like Pe'll Prosper along with my newsletter at Vance Scan dot 18 00:01:19,359 --> 00:01:23,359 Subside dot com. But go there. It has all the great information bio 19 00:01:23,439 --> 00:01:26,640 and all that fun stuff. Yeah. I was there at the White House 20 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,840 from June twenty nineteen to May of twenty twenty. Not a shortage of things 21 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,159 that was going on at that time. Helped write the President Trump's last budget. 22 00:01:34,879 --> 00:01:38,480 Then there was a whole impeachment hearings that were going on, and then 23 00:01:38,799 --> 00:01:42,719 you know that little thing called COVID hit and then that whole that threw a 24 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:47,719 whole rich into what we were doing. And so then I decided to bring 25 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,560 my family and two kids at the time we got three now, we came 26 00:01:49,599 --> 00:01:55,480 back to Austin, Texas, and so that's where we're at today. Yeah. 27 00:01:55,519 --> 00:01:59,719 Also, no shortage of news happening in Texas, that's right. Austin 28 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,400 Van tell us a little bit about what you did before going to OMB. 29 00:02:04,519 --> 00:02:07,319 Obviously you've had a full career before you went to OMB. So how did 30 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,840 you end up there? Yeah, that's right. I mean I grew up 31 00:02:09,879 --> 00:02:14,120 in Houston. I went to school at Texas Tech University and my PhD in 32 00:02:14,159 --> 00:02:16,840 economics, taught at sam Houston State University for a couple of years, so 33 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,560 I was in academia. Then I was like, well, I really want 34 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,759 people to read when I'm writing and actually have an influence on things. And 35 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:25,960 so that got me into public policy, where I started at the Texas Pulit 36 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:32,479 Policy Foundation. Worked there for about a decade on state budgeting, occupacial licensing 37 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:37,719 reform, eliminating bad taxes, and that sort of thing. And then that's 38 00:02:37,719 --> 00:02:42,400 when I met Russ vote Whenever. He was the acting director of OMB at 39 00:02:42,439 --> 00:02:45,560 the time, and we talked a lot about the conservative Texas budget that I 40 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,639 had worked on and some of my worked with other state thing tanks across the 41 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,159 country, and he said, well, you know what, we need to 42 00:02:50,159 --> 00:02:53,120 do more of this at the federal level. And so I went up there 43 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,400 and then started working a lot on that. But I had a good opportunity, 44 00:02:55,439 --> 00:02:59,800 you know, in Texas being the largest red state, to see what 45 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:04,960 can happened with better spending, lower taxes, deregulation. Really what I call 46 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,400 the Texas model. That all this economic growth, and I think that's what 47 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:13,159 needs to happen across the country and even at the federal level. Yeah, 48 00:03:13,199 --> 00:03:15,479 I was excited to talk to you about something that fascinates me, which is 49 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:23,000 the reaction to Javier Mile and the reaction to victor Orbon And it's there's the 50 00:03:23,039 --> 00:03:28,719 two sides of what people see as the new right spectrum, and media kind 51 00:03:28,719 --> 00:03:32,000 of freaks out about conservative studying both of them closely. And I think conservatives 52 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,800 have good reason to study both of them closely. But what you're talking about 53 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,800 with Texas sort of reminds me of why I'm very favorable to Milayism taking a 54 00:03:40,879 --> 00:03:45,879 chainsaw to regulation basically, but also you know, protecting things like the right 55 00:03:45,919 --> 00:03:49,439 to life. And I want to ask just your experience in the Trump administration 56 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:54,800 where you had this infusion of really exciting and new economic nationalism from people like 57 00:03:54,919 --> 00:04:00,759 russ and others, and then also you had your sort of old school Goldman, 58 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:04,159 you know, Steve Menusan, Gary Cohne. I think Cone was probably 59 00:04:04,199 --> 00:04:08,360 gone before you were an own b But can you talk just about it, 60 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,680 like from behind the scenes of the administration. It's sort of like and I 61 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,120 don't think it is a bad thing. The question of where America should fit 62 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,199 and how America should should kind of answer these tough questions sort of like it 63 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:24,079 was being worked out in real time. And honestly, this sounds overly optimistic, 64 00:04:24,079 --> 00:04:26,600 but kind of in a helpful way from my perspective. So I'm curious 65 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,600 for your experience. Yeah, no, I love the way you put that 66 00:04:29,639 --> 00:04:32,240 too. I'm a big fan of what Hoavier Malay is doing down in Argentina. 67 00:04:32,439 --> 00:04:34,879 I think we should just be taking a train chainsaw to a lot of 68 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:41,000 these agencies and departments across the federal government and state governments. So I love 69 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,199 what he's doing there and hope we get more of that at the federal level 70 00:04:44,199 --> 00:04:46,240 and across the states. And someone who comes at it from more of a 71 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,920 classical liberal angle, I'm a free market, free trade guy. That's really 72 00:04:50,959 --> 00:04:55,959 where I do what I focus on and try to promote as much as possible 73 00:04:55,959 --> 00:04:59,639 to let people prosper Throw that in there, and so you saw that within 74 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,279 the Trump administration there were there was a lot of diverse views on what was 75 00:05:03,319 --> 00:05:06,360 going on. When you had Larry Kudlow, for example, who was in 76 00:05:06,399 --> 00:05:11,680 there, that's the NEC National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett at Council of 77 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,519 Economic Advisors. You had that those sort of folks who are more free trade 78 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:19,920 versus maybe you're Peter Navarro's and Robert Leiinheiser's not so free trade. There was 79 00:05:19,959 --> 00:05:24,199 a lot of discussion, and that's what I think the president President Trump really 80 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:29,319 appreciated was the diverse viewpoints that would come in and he's going to make the 81 00:05:29,399 --> 00:05:31,319 decision at the end of the day, but he wants to hear the background 82 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,360 of what's going on and what's happening, and that was something that I appreciated 83 00:05:35,439 --> 00:05:41,199 very much about the administration. It was an extraordinary time. I wasn't always 84 00:05:41,199 --> 00:05:44,000 happy with the direction of where things were going. I wanted to cut spending 85 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,639 more than what we could what we did, which of course that's Congress at 86 00:05:46,639 --> 00:05:48,720 the end of the day. I wanted more free trade. But at the 87 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:53,759 same time, there was a lot of other things that go into this discussion 88 00:05:53,879 --> 00:05:58,279 about national security threats, what else should be on the table, what should 89 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,600 we be looking at with China, and so I from my perspective to your 90 00:06:01,639 --> 00:06:04,399 point, I think there's a lot more that we could have cut, and 91 00:06:04,439 --> 00:06:08,759 maybe there would would have cut in the second the second term, and maybe 92 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,279 there will be in a new Trump term. But at the same time, 93 00:06:11,319 --> 00:06:15,800 let's make sure we have a free market direction to go. It's super interesting, 94 00:06:15,879 --> 00:06:19,399 yes, because it sounds like that the plans, whether it's from Heritage 95 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:25,680 or other groups working with Heritage or other groups independently. Russ actually has talked 96 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,680 a little bit about what a second Trump administration or even another presidential administration from 97 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,319 a Republican could look like. So I have some questions about that too. 98 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,240 But this is reminds me of there's a great case study playing out in the 99 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,480 news right now that balances a lot of the concerns you just brought up, 100 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:44,600 which is the case of nip and steel and you know, the US steel 101 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:49,759 Japan trying to buy a steak in it, And it's just it's the most 102 00:06:49,759 --> 00:06:56,160 interesting, I think collision of all of these different variables. And the Wall 103 00:06:56,160 --> 00:07:00,680 Street Journal, their editorial board on economics hasn't really been persuasive to me for 104 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:02,800 many years, but I actually thought the editorial in this question was a very 105 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:08,759 interesting one. Advance from your expertise and not my sort of armchair economics. 106 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,920 What is your perspective on the conservative argument for against what's happening with US steel 107 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,920 right now? Yeah, I think you know, one of the things we 108 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,680 will to look at is national security threat, and from my perspective, I 109 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:24,920 don't see a national security threat from Japan, and so I don't understand why 110 00:07:24,959 --> 00:07:28,800 we would reject this deal with Japan, who is an ally. I mean, 111 00:07:28,839 --> 00:07:30,519 it's not even that they're an adversary, they're an ally. And what's 112 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,199 going on. So when the Biden administration and others are saying, you know 113 00:07:33,279 --> 00:07:35,920 what, we don't want this to happen, I think that's the wrong direction 114 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:42,920 for the country. I think that there are reasons to consider what's happening with 115 00:07:43,399 --> 00:07:46,519 China and whether or not that's a good idea for certain businesses like TikTok or 116 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,959 by Edance, And there's a whole discussion going on there as well, which 117 00:07:49,959 --> 00:07:55,759 we could talk about. But with this this with with Steele in Japan, 118 00:07:55,839 --> 00:07:59,079 I don't see this as being a big issue. And I'm hopeful that we 119 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,879 can allow as for more competition to be in the marketplace, because what you 120 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:07,519 don't want to see is that, you know, the joind ventures or mergers 121 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:13,399 and acquisitions start to be determined by DC and no matter what, and because 122 00:08:13,439 --> 00:08:16,720 if that happens, we reduce the competitive playing field and we lead to more 123 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,360 uncertainty you know, if I if I'm a big business or a business in 124 00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:22,959 general and want to do business with another country, is the government going to 125 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,920 come in and stop me? Based on this? That leads to a lot 126 00:08:24,959 --> 00:08:28,199 of uncertainty in the marketplace, which is one reason why I thought you saw 127 00:08:28,959 --> 00:08:35,840 Nie con Steele their their their stock market value decline dramatically after these the SEMs 128 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:37,320 have been made, because they're like, what's going to happen? And it 129 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,480 brings up so much uncertainty that I think we need to get out of the 130 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,600 system. And that's why less government should be the answer, not more. 131 00:08:43,879 --> 00:08:46,600 Yeah, the national security question is paramount. It's actually not one that the 132 00:08:46,639 --> 00:08:50,919 Wall Street Journal editorial board address, but that seems to me the question of 133 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:56,759 reassoring some of these critical industries, whether it's chips or pharmaceuticals, is a 134 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:01,559 huge priority. How do you think that can be because chips is something that 135 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,120 you For example, that legislation was supported by Marco Rubio and some kind of 136 00:09:05,159 --> 00:09:09,360 national conservatives, who then pulled their support because the bill was still full of 137 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:16,039 like crony DEI handouts, green energy handouts, and just things that weren't ultimately 138 00:09:16,039 --> 00:09:22,039 helpful. There's some evidence right now that DEI is causing different chips manufacturers to 139 00:09:22,519 --> 00:09:26,840 look to other places, whether it's South Korea, I think, Japan, 140 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:31,080 other regions where these chips can be manufactured outside the United States because there's so 141 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:37,399 much red tape to building here just with DEI and green regulations. Do you 142 00:09:37,399 --> 00:09:43,039 have any sort of insight into how some of these industries can be shored up, 143 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:50,000 no pun intended, but without you know, becoming overly sort of planned 144 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,080 economically. Yeah, it's great points that you made there, and I think 145 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,320 the way to look at it is, for one thing, the DEI has 146 00:09:56,399 --> 00:10:01,559 just went overboard. I mean, whenever you're focus seeing more on DEI sort 147 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:05,519 of analysis for your firm compared to profitability, which is why this should be 148 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,279 in business to make a profit, then you're going to have problems. And 149 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,799 that's what we've seen. I mean, I think what we're seeing is a 150 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:15,879 weeding out of the DEI be based on competition in the marketplace, which is 151 00:10:15,879 --> 00:10:18,519 what we what I would want from a free market perspective versus a top down 152 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:24,200 approach, and instead what we should should hope from policy is to remove government 153 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:28,559 barriers out of the way. One of those I think across the board would 154 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,519 be to lower the corporate income tax rate. I mean, it's it's it. 155 00:10:31,639 --> 00:10:33,000 It went down from thirty five percent to twenty one percent from the Trump 156 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:39,759 tax cuts of twenty seventeen, but the average global rate is now going even 157 00:10:39,799 --> 00:10:41,840 lower than that, it's closer to seventeen percent. So already we're doing a 158 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:46,559 disadvant We're at a disadvantage when we think about the corporate tax rates. Also, 159 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:48,480 deregulation, I mean one of the things under the Trump administration that I 160 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,240 think was huge with only Trump tax cuts, but also deregulation, and the 161 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:58,799 Biden administration has come in and increased regulation after regulation after regulation. The American 162 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:03,399 Action Forum, they put out these numbers that come up with what's the cost 163 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,159 of regulation? Under Obama was around three hundred billion dollars during the first three 164 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,840 years. Under Trump it was about twenty four billion, so much less, 165 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:16,279 and under the Biden administration it's four hundred plus billion dollars. So yes, 166 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,759 they've been raising taxes, but they're also raising regulations, which makes it more 167 00:11:18,759 --> 00:11:22,840 difficult for businesses to profit. And so what a businesses do when they can't 168 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:28,159 profit as much? They turn to all these woke nonsense items like DEI. 169 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:33,480 And I think if we get back to profitability and not lambasting every company who's 170 00:11:33,519 --> 00:11:37,600 making more in profits and saying that's a bad thing, will be in a 171 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,320 much better situation. And is that because if you turn to DEI, you 172 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,960 some people see that in C suites as a marketing opportunity. We saw that 173 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,360 behind the scenes of bud Light, We've seen it behind the scenes of Disney. 174 00:11:48,879 --> 00:11:52,240 But also that you are sort of they shower you in subsidies if you 175 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,919 sprint towards DEI, that's right, and you get included in ESG portfolios that 176 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,440 kind of thing. Yes, yeah, And there's been decisions that are rules 177 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,840 made by the Federal Reserve that you need to have certain ESG standards, And 178 00:12:05,919 --> 00:12:07,879 when you look in the Department of Labor, there's been DEI sort of rules 179 00:12:07,879 --> 00:12:11,679 put in place. So this goes back to the hobby m Mala point that 180 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:13,039 you made earlier. I mean, we really need to start slashing a lot 181 00:12:13,039 --> 00:12:18,159 of this stuff from these agencies and departments because they're leading us to make these 182 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:22,519 decisions throughout the marketplace. And just to go back to your Chip's point, 183 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,919 you know, I think that there are critical assets that we want to be 184 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,519 building here or know where they're coming from, that are are going to be 185 00:12:30,639 --> 00:12:33,639 high quality and not have other sort of issues. I think we also got 186 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:39,960 to be careful though about supporting one business or industries over another. The government 187 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,360 can support certain industries, but the problem is they're always behind the curve. 188 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,840 Government does is not forward looking. It's either at the moment or what's in 189 00:12:46,879 --> 00:12:52,000 the past. It's just like we do these broadband expansions to rural areas. 190 00:12:52,039 --> 00:12:54,679 The bad funding is what they call it. Right out of the was the 191 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:58,799 Inflation Reduction Act and the Investment and Jobs Act, all these different acts that 192 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,879 they done over the last couple of years. They put all this money into 193 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,360 broadband. And my concern is like, okay, but in these rural areas, 194 00:13:05,399 --> 00:13:09,159 people knew that they were going to have broadband, they were choosing to 195 00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:11,559 go there. Why should we force the marketplace to do that. And by 196 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:16,240 the way, Elon Musk with Starlink may make all this obsolete very quickly. 197 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:20,240 Yet now we've spent billions of dollars. And so what we ordinarily see with 198 00:13:20,279 --> 00:13:26,240 any sort of industrial policy is that you create you definitely pick winners and losers. 199 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,759 And we see a huge cost to that over time on the taxpayer. 200 00:13:30,919 --> 00:13:33,480 At a time where we're running two trillion dollars plus deficits, we just don't 201 00:13:33,519 --> 00:13:37,240 We can't afford it anymore. I had a piece out recently where America can't 202 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,720 afford by nomics, and I think this is so true, where it's not 203 00:13:41,759 --> 00:13:46,600 just Bynomics but big government in general. We can't afford this anymore, running 204 00:13:46,639 --> 00:13:54,840 massive deficits, and it starts with reigning and government spending. You've probably noticed 205 00:13:54,919 --> 00:13:58,720 volatility in the market lately. 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Go to csnmint dot com slash Federalist 228 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:58,799 and use promo code Federalist at checkout to get a free silver American Eagle or 229 00:16:00,039 --> 00:16:08,440 thirty dollars in value with your purchase of seventy five dollars or more. Yeah. 230 00:16:08,639 --> 00:16:12,039 No, that's so interesting because another question I was going to ask you 231 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:18,240 is JD. Vance was recently profiled by Political Magazine and they asked him about 232 00:16:18,279 --> 00:16:23,600 the Trump tax cuts, sort of in that context of new right criticisms of 233 00:16:23,639 --> 00:16:27,519 the Trump tax cuts, and I think Jdvan said something like it was helpful 234 00:16:27,559 --> 00:16:32,399 to the economy, but you know, the slashing the highest marginal rate probably 235 00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:37,840 not his top priority. I wanted to ask you what your take is on 236 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:42,600 how crucial those tax cuts were to the economy under Donald Trump. I mean, 237 00:16:42,639 --> 00:16:48,159 and especially the corporate tax rate, which now the Biden administration has this 238 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:52,279 outright social studia of a global minimum tax, which has gotten way too little 239 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:57,960 attention. It is just full blown socialism, of bordering on communism, crazy 240 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:03,720 stuff. But it really is like their pickety proposal that they've swallowed whole cloth. 241 00:17:03,359 --> 00:17:07,319 So tell us a little bit about how you think that tax cut bill 242 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:11,400 affected the economy, and maybe a little bit about how you think that another 243 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:17,000 Republican administration, whether it's Trump or someone else, should approach those issues. 244 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:21,799 Do you focus on regulation slashing regulation, do you focus on cutting more taxes? 245 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:26,000 Do you focus on reforming Medicare, social Security? I know that's a 246 00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:29,160 huge question, but just you know, I think that if the past is 247 00:17:29,599 --> 00:17:33,519 prologue going forward, you know what did that do and what can be done 248 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:38,960 in another Republican administration. Yeah? Great, great question. Maybe where it 249 00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:44,200 start is to say the three big things. Let me start here. Actually, 250 00:17:44,599 --> 00:17:49,000 this excessive spending issue is a biparisan problem. It's been Republicans and Democrats 251 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,519 that have led us to the situation we are today, and it is from 252 00:17:52,559 --> 00:17:56,480 excessive spending. We don't have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem. 253 00:17:56,559 --> 00:17:59,759 And all the evidence and the research that I've done on this shows that 254 00:17:59,799 --> 00:18:03,480 that to be the case. In fact, had we just matched population growth 255 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,759 plus inflation, which is a good measure of the average taxpayer's ability to pay 256 00:18:06,799 --> 00:18:10,599 for government spending over the last twenty years, instead of running up twenty point 257 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:15,240 two trillion dollars in national debt, and we have only added seven hundred billion. 258 00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:19,039 That would have meant like eighteen point five trillion more dollars in our pocket, 259 00:18:19,079 --> 00:18:22,279 and actually nineteen point five trillion more dollars in our pocket where we wouldn't 260 00:18:22,319 --> 00:18:26,799 have to have higher interest rates and inflation and everything else if he just ran 261 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:32,279 in government spending. And Biden in his latest budget of seven point three trillion 262 00:18:32,319 --> 00:18:36,559 dollars expects for revenue to come up to about twenty percent of GDP. We've 263 00:18:36,559 --> 00:18:38,519 never seen that before, and we're not going to see that under his budget 264 00:18:38,559 --> 00:18:41,519 because the tax rates are just going to be so high. And so the 265 00:18:41,559 --> 00:18:45,880 three big things that I think any Republican administration should do, and I would 266 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,799 hope any administration, but let's say Republican administration is, for one thing, 267 00:18:48,799 --> 00:18:52,480 we've got to get control of spending. Spending is the problem. Let's cut 268 00:18:52,519 --> 00:18:56,000 spending and then limit it to something some growth rate over time. A good 269 00:18:56,039 --> 00:18:59,880 fiscal rule, I think is really important, and I was able to get 270 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:04,079 that into the last President Trump's last budget where we mentioned a fiscal rule the 271 00:19:04,079 --> 00:19:08,480 first time since the Graham Redman rules back in the nineteen eighties. So I 272 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,920 think that was huge. But once you limit government spending, number two is 273 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,160 we need to continue to cut taxes. I think the Trump tax cuts should 274 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,680 be made permanent, from the top down to the bottom. All those are 275 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,920 really important because what does those what do those tax rates do if they're too 276 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,880 high or if they're just a there. In general, they're going to disincentivize 277 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,319 you to work. I don't care if it's the lower income, middle income, 278 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:33,240 or upper income. It's one of the reasons why I'm such such a 279 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,519 big fate in favor of having a flat income tax rate instead of the progressive 280 00:19:37,559 --> 00:19:41,279 marginal income tax race system that we have today, because it is historic's economic 281 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,519 activity. But you also want a lower corporate income tax, and I should 282 00:19:45,599 --> 00:19:49,279 say that my preferred corporate income tax is zero. I don't think that we 283 00:19:49,279 --> 00:19:53,599 should be taxing businesses because businesses only submit taxes, they don't pay taxes. 284 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,079 People pay taxes to the form of higher prices, lower wages, and fewer 285 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,880 jobs available, or share holders just take a hit in the process too. 286 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:06,279 We all pay for it somehow. So there shouldn't be a double taxational corporations 287 00:20:06,279 --> 00:20:10,440 that we're already paying in the process. And so let's keep bringing that down. 288 00:20:10,599 --> 00:20:12,319 And I love your point too about this global taxes. I mean, 289 00:20:12,599 --> 00:20:18,000 global government is bad just in general. You name it, it's bad. 290 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,160 And so I think a global corporate tax or minimum tax, whatever they want 291 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,440 to call it, is also bad news. You want countries to be able 292 00:20:23,519 --> 00:20:26,920 to compete. I think the best way to compete is to lower that corporate 293 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,799 to zero. But if we're not going to do that, then let them 294 00:20:30,839 --> 00:20:33,359 compete as much as possible. You know, Ireland cut their rate dramatically and 295 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,599 they've seen a huge increase in economic growth because that corporate tax rate has been 296 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,000 so low and it makes it more competitive. And for the United States to 297 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:45,119 be more competitive, we need to do the same thing. And the third 298 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,440 thing that I would say is part of my one, two and three spending 299 00:20:47,799 --> 00:20:51,319 tax cuts, deregulation is the last one. I think you've got to have 300 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:56,200 deregulation as part of this because if not, the bureaucratic state will continue to 301 00:20:56,240 --> 00:21:00,119 weaponize against the public unfortunately, and that's where a lot of our money's going 302 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:07,440 nowadays. Yeah, the corporate tax rate is Again that's why I like Malayism 303 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,240 because it's a much more American you know, not exactly Melayism, but it's 304 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:18,640 a much closer it's a much closer rendering of American conservatism than urbanism. Not 305 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,680 that there's a problem with thinking about how people should have more children from a 306 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:27,000 policy perspective, but the American approach to this really is to be the competitive 307 00:21:27,599 --> 00:21:33,960 engine of global economic might. And you know, I'm from Milwaukee area, 308 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:37,000 and I remember when Johnson Controls was headquartered in Glendale, right out sel Milwaukee. 309 00:21:37,079 --> 00:21:41,759 It's headquartered in Ireland. Now that should tell us something. There's really 310 00:21:41,759 --> 00:21:47,279 no reason for it, so other than the corporate tax rate. You know. 311 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,720 One of the things I'm thinking about as you're talking is so many people 312 00:21:49,759 --> 00:21:57,000 that come from the free trade, staunch free trade and deregulation side of this 313 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:06,440 are really panicked and depressed about this infusion of economic nationalism and are so bitterly 314 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,680 hostile to people like JD. Vance or even if people like Russ. It's 315 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:17,400 very personal and divisive, but just listening to you, you seem to be 316 00:22:17,759 --> 00:22:21,079 understanding that these are people coming from reasonable places. It's a reasionable difference of 317 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:27,960 opinion. Are you panicked over the state of conservative economic ideology or are you 318 00:22:29,039 --> 00:22:33,000 sort of optimistic about all of this being melted into something that's a better final 319 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:37,960 product. Maybe I hope. I'm hopeful for the latter. I'm an optimistic 320 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:42,480 economist. Those things don't usually go together, the dismal science, if you 321 00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:45,680 will. But I'm an optimist at the end of the day, and I 322 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:52,160 think that this is a good time for this discussion to take place, and 323 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:56,359 for this internal debate, a conversation of differing views to go into. I 324 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:02,160 should mention that I was a signatory of the freedom Conservative conservatism. Uh, 325 00:23:02,559 --> 00:23:04,039 and so that is kind of where I'm at compared to the net CON. 326 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,680 So I don't consider myself to be a net con or anything like that. 327 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,720 I still send the nat CON one. Okay, there you go. See, 328 00:23:11,759 --> 00:23:14,400 but we can have these discussions. I think it's important to have these 329 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,799 types of discussions when you're when you're going on. So for example, if 330 00:23:17,839 --> 00:23:21,559 you just take free trade, I know that's a big debate that happens between 331 00:23:21,599 --> 00:23:25,359 the two. For example, I was in a lot of those discussions, 332 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,119 and he heard a lot of discussions at the White House about China and understood 333 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,880 where like Peter Navarro was coming from, where he's like death death by China, 334 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:38,000 where he really believes that they are going to have a consequential threat to 335 00:23:38,079 --> 00:23:41,200 us for the future if we don't do something about them, And I totally 336 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,920 understand that. At the same time, though, while tariffs can go after 337 00:23:47,039 --> 00:23:49,559 them, I would just be you were remissed if I didn't remind us that 338 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,400 we Americans pay those tariffs. Yes, the Chinese may get hurt by it 339 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,039 because they're not going to produce as much, but we're still going to pay 340 00:23:56,039 --> 00:24:00,200 a higher price and costs in the process. My my retort was always that 341 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,400 we should go a different direction. Why not have more free trade with our 342 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,400 allies. If we had more free trade with our allies, then we could 343 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,559 put more pressure on China because just one country, even though we're a large 344 00:24:10,559 --> 00:24:12,599 country, China can just go to other countries, which they've been doing. 345 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,519 I was actually a big fan of the Transpacific Partnership, which some people don't 346 00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:19,720 like, and I got some pushback for that. That's okay, but I 347 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,039 think by expanding trade with these folks, we would put more pressure on China 348 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,599 to change their policies because they'd have to do it with more countries than just 349 00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:30,680 the United States. In addition to that, it goes back to all those 350 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,759 things we just mentioned earlier. Of cutting government spending, cutting taxes, and 351 00:24:33,799 --> 00:24:38,160 cutting regulation. If we have to look at internally what we're doing in America 352 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,720 to raise the cost of doing business, that's sending businesses to other places. 353 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,480 One thing I like to say is that when we're pointing our finger at someone 354 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,359 else, we've got three other fingers that are pointing back at us. So 355 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:53,079 we need to make sure that we're doing everything that we can from an American 356 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,319 perspective so that we could be as competitive as possible, instead of putting in 357 00:24:57,319 --> 00:25:02,319 a situation where we're having higher taxes as and other things on other countries that 358 00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:04,400 which hurts us in the process. But I do think, but I do 359 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,640 think we didn't need these discussions though, of nat CON's free cons whatever we 360 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:14,400 want to call ourselves, is that it brings us together to figure out what's 361 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,039 the next steps. Another thing that you know, I'm not as comfortable with 362 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,839 or cautious about is natalist policies. You know, like the recent tax the 363 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,400 child tax credits. I've got three kids. I would love to get that 364 00:25:26,599 --> 00:25:32,720 additional money. However, I think that there are better ways to allow for 365 00:25:32,799 --> 00:25:34,039 parents to do what it's going to be in their best interests. Instead of 366 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:40,319 government trying to decide or incentivize certain activity to take place. And so I'm 367 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:44,319 real cautious about those sort of things. Yeah, no, absolutely, And 368 00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:48,359 it's so interesting. And the American Political Science Association asked me to speak on 369 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:53,759 a panel about net con versus free Con last year, and one of the 370 00:25:53,759 --> 00:25:56,759 points that I wanted to make, and this is where Melayism comes in, 371 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,519 is that I could have signed the free Con statement with I maybe took exception 372 00:26:00,599 --> 00:26:03,720 to one thing or the other. And I know people who signed the free 373 00:26:03,799 --> 00:26:07,200 cont statement who have said I almost could have signed onto the net con statement 374 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,480 too. And not to beat the MELA drum over and over again, but 375 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,759 I feel like that's the model, not orbone. You know, the natalism 376 00:26:14,839 --> 00:26:18,240 stuff is an interesting part of that, but that's the model to me. 377 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:25,559 This this combination of deregulation, shrinking the federal government, Schedule F stuff, 378 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:30,519 you know, that's the big the big campaign of Project twenty twenty five from 379 00:26:30,559 --> 00:26:33,039 Heritage and others is to basically slash the size of the federal government, which 380 00:26:33,079 --> 00:26:37,440 the left is now saying is so radical. Yes, yes, yes it 381 00:26:37,519 --> 00:26:42,000 is because we desperately need that radical change. I don't know if you have 382 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,480 any other thoughts on that. But it's been kind of tough, how bitter 383 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,559 that conversation is between so many different factions. You know, the new right 384 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,720 is taken it very personally. The old right is taken it very personally because 385 00:26:52,759 --> 00:26:56,640 it's sort of responding to a condemnation of their life's work in many cases and 386 00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:02,880 accusing them of corruption and all of that. So it's been hard to have 387 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:08,839 this conversation. I think, yeah, I think so too. I think 388 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,599 some of it goes back to assumptions. As an economist, that's always look 389 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,039 at as the assumptions, and I think, and this is not for everyone, 390 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,559 but some of the free cons might assume, well, hey, look, 391 00:27:18,759 --> 00:27:21,960 we haven't had this libertarian because I think from the free cons is they'll 392 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,920 hear the net cons say, well, maybe we've always been in this reagan 393 00:27:25,039 --> 00:27:27,680 esque view and that we have this libertarian dream world that we're in, whereas 394 00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:32,319 I don't see that as ever happening. In my view, we've still had 395 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,839 too much government. In the Reagan years, we were running massive deficits because 396 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,240 they cut taxes, but they didn't cut government spending. There was still a 397 00:27:38,319 --> 00:27:41,799 problem that was taking place. You know, George W. Bush did the 398 00:27:41,799 --> 00:27:45,480 same thing. You really have to go back to Calvin Coolidge that actually cut 399 00:27:45,519 --> 00:27:48,359 taxes and cut spending. And I think that's more of the model that we 400 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,839 need, going back to Hobby or Malay of looking at this and something else. 401 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,200 You know that I look at a lot is on states. I think 402 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,480 the states should be telling us more of this. I believe strongly in federalism 403 00:27:57,799 --> 00:28:02,759 and what's happened and maybe we probably growth both agree on this is that the 404 00:28:02,799 --> 00:28:07,279 government's got so big at the federal level, which has centralized power to the 405 00:28:07,319 --> 00:28:10,720 federal level way too much. I want to see that decentralize as much as 406 00:28:10,759 --> 00:28:15,039 possible, get that money out to the states, or cut taxes more and 407 00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:19,200 so that way the states and people ultimately have more control over their future than 408 00:28:19,279 --> 00:28:22,640 the federal level. Because the more and more we centralize this, the worse 409 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,440 offware going to be, the larger these agencies are going to be, and 410 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:33,720 the more money we're going to have to spend in the process. Today's episode 411 00:28:33,759 --> 00:28:37,720 is brought to you by surf Shark. Surf Shark is a cybersecurity product that 412 00:28:37,799 --> 00:28:42,400 improves your online privacy and protects you from hackers. 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And that's where I want to pivot, maybe to Bidenomics self styled 430 00:30:07,839 --> 00:30:11,279 Bidenomics. The White House sort of goes back and forth and whether or not 431 00:30:11,359 --> 00:30:15,160 they should be even using the brand Bidenomics. Sometimes they think it's their ticket 432 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,640 to reelection and other times they understand that it really isn't their ticket to reelection. 433 00:30:19,119 --> 00:30:23,119 So talk to us a little bit about your assessment of the economy under 434 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:27,400 the Biden administration. Still have high interest rates, we have you know, 435 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:33,319 inflation in certain areas of the economy. We have the Paul Kragmans of the 436 00:30:33,319 --> 00:30:37,200 world saying, why is everybody upset about the economy? They're absolutely fine, 437 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,160 Biden is doing so well. Look, the rate of inflation is decreasing, 438 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,279 et cetera, et cetera. Why are the Paul Kragmans wrong? And what 439 00:30:45,359 --> 00:30:49,200 went wrong under Biden? Yeah? You know what's funny too, Emily, 440 00:30:49,279 --> 00:30:53,240 is that whenever they talked a lot about this is all gonna be transitory inflation. 441 00:30:53,799 --> 00:30:59,000 I remember them talking about that soft landing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, 442 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,279 And then now krug Krugman and others that they'll come out with ways to 443 00:31:03,359 --> 00:31:07,480 explain how this was transitory inflation, but it was never going to be transitory 444 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:11,440 inflation. I was writing about this back and back then. You know, 445 00:31:11,119 --> 00:31:15,319 one of the reasons why I left the White House when I did it was 446 00:31:15,359 --> 00:31:18,839 to go back to Texas where there was a sense of freedom. But also 447 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:25,720 I was you know, I was pretty frustrated by the lockdowns and everything else 448 00:31:25,839 --> 00:31:29,720 and the amount of spending that was taking place. I was trying to push 449 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,000 it back hard or like on the checks that were sent out, the rebate 450 00:31:33,079 --> 00:31:36,319 checks to everyone, not just those that who really needed it, who didn't 451 00:31:36,319 --> 00:31:40,960 lose their jobs, but that really really created a much more expensive situation that 452 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,720 we were going to be in that had a lot of ramifications down the way. 453 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,960 And I wrote about this a lot after I got out of the White 454 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:52,160 House. But you know, you started seeing the deficit and debt go up 455 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,720 dramatically under Trump, not necessarily before that twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, twenty 456 00:31:56,759 --> 00:31:59,720 nineteen, there were still were deficits, and we we were trying to bring 457 00:31:59,759 --> 00:32:04,440 that down. The last budget by the President President Trump found four point six 458 00:32:04,519 --> 00:32:07,319 trillion dollars in savings over a decade. So we were trying to do something 459 00:32:07,359 --> 00:32:10,440 with russ Vote and others. But then COVID came in and that threw all 460 00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:14,200 that out of the water. So then there was the Cares Act, the 461 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,319 Family First Act. There was another act that was passed in December, which 462 00:32:16,319 --> 00:32:19,720 I can't even remember the name now, but there was a lot of money 463 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,799 that was spent, driving up the debt deficit dramatically under the Trump administration, 464 00:32:23,119 --> 00:32:25,720 and then Biden came in and put that on steroids. I mean, you 465 00:32:25,759 --> 00:32:31,599 had the American Recovering Reinvestment Act or sorry ARPA, American Relief what was it. 466 00:32:32,599 --> 00:32:36,880 I don't remember that now, but anyway, it's some convoluted actor. 467 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,519 Yeah, yeah, ARPA is the way that I remembered it now. But 468 00:32:38,559 --> 00:32:43,000 then you had all these other acts that were put in place to continue all 469 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,359 that spending. Whenever the economy was recovering, states were opening back up. 470 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,480 There was no need for it, and so we ran up. If you 471 00:32:50,519 --> 00:32:53,359 put include the Trump administration and the Buid administration, about ten trillion dollars in 472 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:58,480 debt over the course of three or four years. It's a massive amount of 473 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,000 money and then what happened was the Federal Reserve, our central bank, they 474 00:33:01,039 --> 00:33:05,240 came in and they increased their balance sheet. They bought a lot of that 475 00:33:05,319 --> 00:33:08,480 debt. They increased it from four trillion to nine trillion dollars and now it's 476 00:33:08,519 --> 00:33:12,359 back at seven point five, but it's still about double what it was before. 477 00:33:12,599 --> 00:33:15,640 And I mentioned all that because we do need knowledge that there was a 478 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:21,759 large amount of debt increase under the Trump administration, and then it was it 479 00:33:21,799 --> 00:33:25,279 was doubled down upon, though in a bad way, under the Biden administration. 480 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,839 And you add in what the Fed did of trending all that money. 481 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,400 Too much money chasing too few goods, you're going to have inflation. And 482 00:33:32,039 --> 00:33:35,759 I figured it was going to be much longer than what many were saying. 483 00:33:36,039 --> 00:33:39,000 It wasn't just supply chain disruptions, as someone would argue. They said that, 484 00:33:39,039 --> 00:33:42,559 you know, it's just a supply chain. Once all these countries open 485 00:33:42,599 --> 00:33:45,720 back up, the supply will come back on and then that will bring down 486 00:33:45,759 --> 00:33:49,519 prices. We didn't see that, though. Even when inflation hit nine percent 487 00:33:49,559 --> 00:33:52,839 in October of twenty twenty two, it's down to a little over three percent. 488 00:33:52,039 --> 00:33:54,839 Depends on what measure you look at but let's say three percent, it's 489 00:33:54,880 --> 00:34:00,119 still double or or it's still about fifty percent higher than the two percent target 490 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:01,759 rate that the Federal Reserve would like for it to be. So that's already 491 00:34:01,799 --> 00:34:06,480 too high and is three percent on top of the higher prices that we paid 492 00:34:06,559 --> 00:34:09,880 last year. So it's a compounding effect. And just since Biden's taken office, 493 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:14,119 and I think this was really reflective of bionomics, is excess spending, 494 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:19,519 trying to raise taxes and overregulating the economy. So you're you're shrinking the supply 495 00:34:19,639 --> 00:34:24,039 of supply, supply of labor and capital in the marketplace so goods and services, 496 00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:28,480 and you're increasing demand. On the other side, you're going to have 497 00:34:28,559 --> 00:34:31,800 higher prices for longer. And is what has happened is average weekly earnings, 498 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,400 which I think is the best measure to look at what people are actually getting 499 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,880 paid across the economy. If you adjust that for inflation, since January of 500 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:42,400 twenty twenty one, then Biden took office, we're down four point two percent. 501 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,199 So that means that you can't buy four point two percent of what you 502 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:50,360 bought just three years ago. That's a substantial amount for a lot of people. 503 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,039 And it's why you can hear the polls say are sorry some of these 504 00:34:53,079 --> 00:34:58,599 key economic indicators like an unployment rate being three point nine percent or inflation coming 505 00:34:58,599 --> 00:35:00,760 down to three percent. But then you whole people and Americans are like, 506 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,480 you know what, this is a terrible economy. His you know, Biden's 507 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,800 polling on the economy looks very poor and all these other things, and so 508 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:14,159 these economic measures are not reflecting how Americans are really feeling. Whereas I think 509 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,320 this real average weekly earnings down four point two percent, it really does that 510 00:35:17,679 --> 00:35:22,360 people are taking multiple jobs. So the Biden administration can come out and say, 511 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,840 look, we're creating two hundred plus thousand jobs this month and non farm 512 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:29,239 jobs, but you look at the household sector. Emily, I'm just going 513 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:30,400 on a little bit longer on this, but I think it's important is that 514 00:35:30,639 --> 00:35:36,280 on the household sector, there's been declines in employment for four of the last 515 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,320 five months. So things are not going well for people. And that's because 516 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:43,840 they have multiple jobs and the people who want a job can't find them right 517 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,239 now. And that's a tough situation for many Americans. And I think it's 518 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:52,159 a direct result of bionomics. No it was a really helpful and interesting answer. 519 00:35:52,599 --> 00:35:58,039 It reminded me actually of Axios and other corporate media outlets celebrating how women 520 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:02,519 have returned and higher numbers to the workforce, which we know that the majority 521 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:07,679 of working mothers would prefer to work part time, which just tells me, 522 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,800 you know, there's a great likelihood that women are being forced back into the 523 00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:14,480 workplace in ways that we shouldn't be celebrating because they don't want to be there. 524 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:19,000 They're struggling to make ends meet. Basically, yeah, yeah, and 525 00:36:19,119 --> 00:36:20,800 you know, how do you overcome this? I mean, I think it's 526 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,639 going to take a while. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three 527 00:36:23,679 --> 00:36:28,079 times this year. My guess is that's the most that they'll be able to 528 00:36:28,079 --> 00:36:30,800 do, probably closer to two times, because inflation is going to remain higher 529 00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:35,400 than an otherwise would because of their balance sheet. It all goes together. 530 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,639 I mean, you know, economics can be pretty difficult because of all the 531 00:36:38,639 --> 00:36:40,639 things that are out there, but I think a lot of it just takes 532 00:36:40,679 --> 00:36:45,000 common sense. Common sense economics is really what it's about. When you think 533 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:50,639 about the government being too involved, too much money being created, and you're 534 00:36:50,679 --> 00:36:54,400 overregulated and overtaxed. What's going to happen higher inflation and less economic output than 535 00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,639 you otherwise would have. So what do you do instead, Well, you 536 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:02,000 cut taxes, you cut regulars, you cut the money supply. That breeds 537 00:37:02,039 --> 00:37:06,480 more pro growth policy. So my view, you know, Emily, is 538 00:37:06,519 --> 00:37:09,239 that we don't need to hand out and pick winners and losers. We need 539 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:13,840 government to shrink and so that way everyone has an opportunity to do more of 540 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,559 what they please. And I think that's more of the freedom approach, maybe 541 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:22,760 the Malayian approach as you put it. That's out there, and there are 542 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,119 these debates that I hope will continue, like bringing on the net cons versus 543 00:37:25,159 --> 00:37:29,840 the free cons. But how do we get to the most prosperous place possible? 544 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:31,639 In my view, let peele prosper which you know, I could go 545 00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:36,599 back into my story where I was a drummer in the band in my late 546 00:37:36,639 --> 00:37:39,599 teens and I used to play drums. I still play drums actually, but 547 00:37:39,639 --> 00:37:43,239 I got in a really bad car accident where we rolled six times. We 548 00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,480 were going one hundred and twenty miles an hour, and I was twenty, 549 00:37:45,519 --> 00:37:49,599 and we were young and stupid, but got life lighted into Herman Hospital in 550 00:37:49,599 --> 00:37:52,679 Houston, Texas and had about a month to think about like where my life 551 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,199 was heading and everything, because it wasn't in a good direction. And I 552 00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:59,639 really felt kind of this calling of let puel prosper. And I can't explain 553 00:37:59,679 --> 00:38:04,000 it a lot other than God and my faith. And that's what got me 554 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,199 on this track of being a first generation college graduate. That someone got a 555 00:38:07,199 --> 00:38:10,599 PC economics, worked at a top think tank in the country, and then 556 00:38:10,639 --> 00:38:15,400 got to work in the White House as someone who also went to homeschool from 557 00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:19,360 seventh grade through twelfth grade. To work in the White House was remarkable. 558 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,519 And so when you piece all these things together, I think we make it 559 00:38:22,519 --> 00:38:27,920 too complicated sometimes and it should be about letting people prosper. Yeah, that's 560 00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,760 amazing. I love that. I don't know if you can see the cahen 561 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:32,199 behind me. I think it's covered by a chair, but I think it 562 00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:38,199 is. I see the guitar though. Drumming is awesome. But on that 563 00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,840 note, actually, one thing I wanted to ask you about was anti trust 564 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:46,599 because obviously Lena Khan is there and there's actually disagreement within you know, Senate 565 00:38:46,599 --> 00:38:52,280 Republicans on the benefits of Lena Kon between at Josh Holly and a Tight Cruz 566 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,199 and a lot of different people, But without focusing too much on Lena Kahan, 567 00:38:55,360 --> 00:39:00,480 I'm just curious what your perspective is on whether competition has been stuff fold 568 00:39:00,679 --> 00:39:05,719 by, for example, the Obama administration's sort of passive approach to mergers. 569 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,079 When I look at some of these industries, like when I look at meat 570 00:39:07,119 --> 00:39:14,760 packing, ranching, and you know, social media, what happened to Parlor 571 00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,719 in the app store as a competitor to Twitter. What role do you think 572 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:25,000 our approach to M and A has had in the economy, maybe in adding 573 00:39:25,119 --> 00:39:29,719 to some of the problems. Are we in an anti competitive environment? Do 574 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:34,519 you think we should go more towards maybe like borghism and understand that monopolies can 575 00:39:34,559 --> 00:39:38,320 bring consumers benefits or consumer welfare to use the phrase. What's your take on 576 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:45,559 that? Yeah, a great question. I wrote a piece recently talking about 577 00:39:45,159 --> 00:39:51,719 Biden's anti trust policy is one of the biggest threats to capitalism that we have 578 00:39:52,519 --> 00:39:57,920 because in capitalism, pre market capitalism, you have a situation where there's a 579 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,840 lot of competition, and in situation, as long as things are left pretty 580 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:07,000 free, you're going to allow for competition or the threat of competition to keep 581 00:40:07,039 --> 00:40:12,360 you from raising your prices too high or having low qualities, and so the 582 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,599 marketplace can work its way out. The problem, in my view is whenever 583 00:40:15,639 --> 00:40:20,360 you have too much government that gets in the way, and then that creates 584 00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:25,239 a situation where you can have too much power. You know, you look 585 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:30,559 at different Heirshman the Herfman index of looking at too much concentration of power, 586 00:40:30,639 --> 00:40:34,360 that's the word. I was looking for a concentration of power in a marketplace 587 00:40:34,679 --> 00:40:37,920 that can create this monopoly sort of issues. But I think there's something very 588 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:43,239 powerful with the consumer welfare standard. I think that it's a more objective metric 589 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,800 than a lot of those that are being thrown around out there today from Lena 590 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,599 Khan and either the Department of Justice. What we see is a lot of 591 00:40:50,599 --> 00:40:53,559 subjective determination that they just don't like these companies, they don't like what they're 592 00:40:53,599 --> 00:40:59,360 doing, or if they're having environmental concerns or DEI or something else. It 593 00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,320 seems like they want to go after them for that compared with are they providing 594 00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:07,039 value to the consumers. And when you look at competition, one way that 595 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:13,320 monopolies quote unquote monopolies can form is because that's what consumers want, and I 596 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,000 don't think that's a bad thing if that's what the consumers want. At the 597 00:41:15,079 --> 00:41:17,920 end of the day, consumers have a lot of sovereignty that we don't give 598 00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:22,000 them enough credit for. Consumers can choose not to buy something, they can 599 00:41:22,079 --> 00:41:27,159 choose to go somewhere else or things of that nature. And so from that 600 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,880 perspective, I would really let the marketplace work then coming in to try to 601 00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:36,400 break up these companies or deal with mergers and acquisitions. Just recently, there 602 00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,920 was talk by Governor greg Aabbott here in Texas of you know, there's some 603 00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:45,679 reports that forty four percent of new houses are being purchased by companies by investors, 604 00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:49,039 and so there was a concern that he's like, maybe we need to 605 00:41:49,039 --> 00:41:52,920 tackle this next session to make sure that companies can't go in and buy all 606 00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:57,639 the supply and then that raises the prices for individuals. However, the reality 607 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,119 is is that that's not the case. That it's all when I've read about 608 00:42:00,159 --> 00:42:06,559 two percent of the marketplace is being purchased by investors, and so there's this 609 00:42:07,159 --> 00:42:12,760 push for action that's more from an emotional perspective to see what's best from a 610 00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:16,400 populist perspective really of what's going on in the marketplace versus what's actually happening in 611 00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:21,239 the market. In this particular case, you need investors to be able to 612 00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,679 buy some homes because otherwise they may not be able to sell their home, 613 00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,320 and then they can take that money and go buy a home somewhere else. 614 00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,239 So it's adds liquidity into the marketplace when you think about what's happening with some 615 00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:36,239 of these other murders and acquisitions. I would hope that we would allow for 616 00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,480 the market for consumers to decide what's going to be the best way forward instead 617 00:42:39,519 --> 00:42:45,239 of the government getting involved. And this is another area where from my view 618 00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:50,840 that I think you have progressives on the left and some on the right who 619 00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:57,400 are coming kind of coalescing together that they're both concerned about the antitrust issues that 620 00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:01,199 are out there. I'm more concerned how to make sure that the marketplace works 621 00:43:01,519 --> 00:43:06,119 and don't have government picking winners and losers in the process, because I think 622 00:43:06,159 --> 00:43:09,760 that will lead to a worse outcome down the road. So with antitrust, 623 00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:15,079 I would focus on the consumer welfare standard and allowing for as much competition as 624 00:43:15,079 --> 00:43:22,840 possible instead of government getting in the way. Where have all the Friday jobs 625 00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:27,920 reports gone? The Watchdout on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski. Every day 626 00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,880 Chris helps unpack the connection between politics and the economy and how it affects your 627 00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:35,880 wallet. The White House used to gloat about their incredible job numbers. The 628 00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,280 latest report was off by forty percent. They are lying to you. What's 629 00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:44,239 the real truth about the jobs reports? It's all fake. Whether it's happening 630 00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,360 in DC or down on Wall Street, it's affecting you financially. Be informed. 631 00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:50,559 Check out the watchdot on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski on Apple, 632 00:43:50,639 --> 00:43:57,719 Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. You know what, I am 633 00:43:59,079 --> 00:44:02,280 sure that our free con listeners we're so happy to have this perspective under ship, 634 00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:07,320 I should say, remaining freeconstens I tend to we tend to swing in 635 00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:13,960 the that con direction. So no, that's it's it's helpful perspective. And 636 00:44:14,039 --> 00:44:17,840 again, I think, you know, these conversations have gotten so understandably personal. 637 00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,840 I was going to say overly personal. But in some cases it's perfectly 638 00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,519 understandable that these conversations have gotten personal. But Yeah, it's so helpful to 639 00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:31,239 have constructive sort of sharing of perspective on this issue. Uh, is there 640 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:36,639 anything else you think about the Biden economy people should be aware of, or 641 00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:38,480 anything about, you know, the conservative approach that we haven't talked about you 642 00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:42,920 want to make sure you cover. Yeah, I think with you know, 643 00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:46,320 with the Biden economy, I'm you know, I'm I'm hopeful that they won't 644 00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:51,000 do much this year. It's an election year. Maybe we'll wait until next 645 00:44:51,079 --> 00:44:52,760 year. It seems like with the gridlock going on in Congress that could be 646 00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:57,960 a good thing. There's discussions about the continued resolution and whether or not we're 647 00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,159 going to have a shutdown here. Pretty my guess is they're just picking down 648 00:45:01,199 --> 00:45:04,880 the road a little longer. That's what Congress has been good about doing with 649 00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:08,440 these budgets. But we're not seeing anything else from the Biden administration that makes 650 00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:13,400 me hopeful of pro growth policy. I mean, it's one thing after another 651 00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:17,039 that's trying to grow government and therefore reduce our liberty and our freedom to do 652 00:45:17,079 --> 00:45:20,719 what we want to do. And I think that's why so many people are 653 00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,639 frustrated about this economy. Even though some of those headline numbers can look good 654 00:45:23,679 --> 00:45:28,039 on paper, they're not feeling it at home. Whereas if you compare it 655 00:45:28,039 --> 00:45:31,119 to twenty nineteen before the pandemic and the lockdowns and everything else, I think 656 00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:36,280 most people felt like this was a good economy, and it was all the 657 00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,199 papers and everything else that was going on, the headlines really matched. I 658 00:45:38,199 --> 00:45:42,320 think what Americans were feeling, and we're not feeling that today. We need 659 00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:47,559 a new direction that's going on, and you know, and for the conservative 660 00:45:47,599 --> 00:45:51,960 free market movement, I'm hopeful that we can have more of a focus on 661 00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:57,400 government spending to make sure that it's cut and that we have too much spending. 662 00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,679 I mean, Biden's latest budget is seven point three trillion dollars. Whenever 663 00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:04,840 I left the White House it was four point six trillion dollars, so we 664 00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,719 almost doubled it it just in four years. So, yes, there was 665 00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,840 a lot of spending hearing COVID and all this that some of that's going to 666 00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:15,960 dry up, but that was emergency spending above the baseline budget. We're just 667 00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:19,960 talking about baseline budget seven point three trillion dollars. This is this is ridiculous, 668 00:46:20,199 --> 00:46:22,880 and so those of us who are really focused on the budget need to 669 00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:25,639 come in and say where are we going to start making these cuts? And 670 00:46:25,679 --> 00:46:30,280 I think everything should be on the on the table. Because servers have been 671 00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:35,079 scared about touching social Security and Medicare and national defense, I think those are 672 00:46:35,119 --> 00:46:37,119 going to have to be on the table. I mean, within the next 673 00:46:37,159 --> 00:46:40,599 decade of social Security and medicare are going to be basically insolvent unless we have 674 00:46:40,679 --> 00:46:45,360 massive cuts to benefits that are going to be paid out or higher tax than 675 00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:47,239 something else. I don't think that we want to do that to the economy. 676 00:46:47,519 --> 00:46:52,840 And the only way to overcome deficits and debt is to focus on reducing 677 00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:54,960 government spending. If you raise taxes, it's not going to work. It's 678 00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:59,480 one of the reason why I'm concerned about this new Fiscal Commission is that they'll 679 00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:04,320 focus a lot on raising taxes or raising taxes slows economic growth, it doesn't 680 00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,440 raise revenue, and that will make it put us in a worse situation as 681 00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:10,039 we move forward. There's a lot of good research out there by Alberto Alosina, 682 00:47:10,679 --> 00:47:14,639 John Taylor, Casey Mulligan. There's just a lot of work that's out 683 00:47:14,679 --> 00:47:17,639 there that shows that that's not the path to allowing us to be more fiscally 684 00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:23,039 sound over time. And so I think by doing so, looking at the 685 00:47:23,079 --> 00:47:30,320 future, finding ways to overcome big government and allow for competition, allow for 686 00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:34,039 lower government spending, lower taxes, and less regulation, we could be in 687 00:47:34,039 --> 00:47:37,559 a much better situation. And federalism. Don't make sure to plug that in 688 00:47:37,599 --> 00:47:39,400 there. Make sure we have federalism where states are doing more of this and 689 00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:43,440 less of the federal level, and then we'll have more ways to let people 690 00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,000 prosper. Yeah. I mean, there was such an interesting, I think 691 00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:52,400 clarification during conversations about COVID vaccines where you had some people who had previously been 692 00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:57,760 associated with the New Right, like Adrian Vermuil fully in favor of vaccine mandates, 693 00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:02,000 and just about everybody else in the New all Right was animated against vaccine 694 00:48:02,039 --> 00:48:06,039 mandates. And that basically tells you everything you need to know about where the 695 00:48:06,079 --> 00:48:10,280 heart and soul of American conservatism is and where we can find common ground deregulation, 696 00:48:10,679 --> 00:48:15,519 federalism, cutting spending. Either there has to be a conversation obviously about 697 00:48:15,639 --> 00:48:20,199 entitlement reform, otherwise you know we're going to continue to run up theat no 698 00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,760 matter what. So this has just been a wonderful conversation. Van Skin It's 699 00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:28,519 Vanskin dot substock dot com. Right, yes, that's where you find me. 700 00:48:28,559 --> 00:48:30,519 Also at vance gain dot com. Make it easy, but the newsletters 701 00:48:30,519 --> 00:48:35,199 at vance Gain dot subsdid dot com and my podcast Let Feel Prosper is on 702 00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,920 all the major outlets that are out there. Wherever you get your favorite platform, 703 00:48:38,039 --> 00:48:40,760 go to that one and so a lot of good stuff there as well. 704 00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,320 Let People Prosper. All right, Vance, thank you so much for 705 00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:49,000 joining us. Thank you, of course you've been listening to another edition of 706 00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:51,840 the Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emily Trehenski, culture Editor. You're at the 707 00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:55,519 frost Billy back sooner till then be lovers of freedom and anxious for the frame. 708 00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:05,159 Then you were the only love