WEBVTT 1 00:00:08.199 --> 00:00:14.560 You are listening to Redefining Energy. Your co hosts from Berlin Gerard Reid and 2 00:00:14.720 --> 00:00:20.839 from London Laurel segaln Happy New Year, Jiold, Happy New Year, my 3 00:00:20.879 --> 00:00:25.719 friend. Well for our classic beginning of the your episode, we brought our 4 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:30.839 friend and partner Michael vonab Did we bring him as a referee or why did 5 00:00:30.839 --> 00:00:34.679 we bring him? Happy New Year's Gael, pleasure to be part of this 6 00:00:35.359 --> 00:00:41.600 absolutely critical listening episode of Redefining Energy. Apparently I get to referee. There's 7 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:46.039 a questions about the scoring in the past, and so I've been brought in 8 00:00:46.159 --> 00:00:50.640 as an independent. It was a requirement of the sponsorship. They just felt 9 00:00:50.759 --> 00:00:54.560 that there was some inequity going on. So happy you're here, Michael. 10 00:00:54.640 --> 00:00:58.640 I really am like we just unfairly treated. But first there was from a 11 00:00:58.719 --> 00:01:03.680 partner. This podcast is powered by Expo and international leader in providing sustainable energy 12 00:01:03.680 --> 00:01:10.640 solutions for the future, John Michael. We had sixteen thousand downloads of our 13 00:01:10.680 --> 00:01:15.840 prediction last year. It's time to put our prediction to the test. Mikeel 14 00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:22.799 can you read job first prediction? I certainly can record installation of everything energy 15 00:01:22.840 --> 00:01:27.319 transition, solar batteries, heat pumps and evs. Oh, that's an easy 16 00:01:27.359 --> 00:01:32.120 one. That was If you look globally, battery installation is probably up one 17 00:01:32.159 --> 00:01:36.439 hundred percent. I'm talking pot stationary storage. Solar is four hundred gigawats. 18 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:40.120 I think it was two hundred and fifty gigawatts last year. EVS is up 19 00:01:40.239 --> 00:01:44.280 fourteen million evs sold this year, ten million last year. Heat pumps, 20 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:47.239 which was you know, had a difficult year. Still a record year globally 21 00:01:47.239 --> 00:01:49.840 you'll have ten and a half million heat pumps. And then wind, even 22 00:01:49.879 --> 00:01:53.719 wind actually had a record year one hundred and three gigawatts. So yeah, 23 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:57.359 it's a good I think the only thing that didn't work out so well was 24 00:01:57.439 --> 00:02:01.359 nuclear, you know, that was that did not so well. Everything else 25 00:02:01.439 --> 00:02:07.520 was good. Yeah, but Yob, you took us the embassador of China 26 00:02:07.599 --> 00:02:14.319 because seventy percent of all those installations were in China. I love the Chinese, 27 00:02:14.560 --> 00:02:20.520 so simple came over. I will say as the referee that given where 28 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:23.800 we've been going, this prediction was like saying the sun rises in the east, 29 00:02:24.680 --> 00:02:29.719 and the east being China. Obviously, I have to say this is 30 00:02:29.840 --> 00:02:31.639 just such an obvious one. I can't give it a ten out of ten, 31 00:02:31.680 --> 00:02:35.080 even though it's accurate. Eight out of ten is all I can give 32 00:02:35.080 --> 00:02:45.280 it one to one. Okay. Next prediction lore massive consolidation and ev sector. 33 00:02:45.639 --> 00:02:51.479 Toyota will buy Panasonic, okay, and I said most of us will 34 00:02:51.520 --> 00:02:54.879 buy Riviana and we will see an apple the car. Okay, let's try 35 00:02:54.919 --> 00:03:00.960 to sugar coat it a bit. So I sorry, no, I'm not 36 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:06.919 if you told me not to laugh at this prediction. We had some bankruptcy 37 00:03:07.000 --> 00:03:15.439 like Poterra. We finally see Lucy imploding. The CFO just resign at the 38 00:03:15.560 --> 00:03:20.159 end of last year. They just put six hundred million do our revenue and 39 00:03:20.319 --> 00:03:24.080 almost three billion dollars of loss in the first three quarters of twenty three. 40 00:03:25.159 --> 00:03:31.879 Volkswagen is struggling a lot of zombie companies like Fiscer. Toyota got a new 41 00:03:31.919 --> 00:03:37.000 CEO. That's right, but unfortunately it seems to drink the same kool aid 42 00:03:37.080 --> 00:03:42.360 as his former boss. And you know talking about Ammonia engine Peumonia. Yeah, 43 00:03:42.439 --> 00:03:47.840 yeah, I talk about Ammonia Engine and teslack continue to outperform shares upon 44 00:03:47.919 --> 00:03:54.639 one twenty percent to twenty three. They want the competition for the charging standout. 45 00:03:54.719 --> 00:04:00.400 In the US, Model Y is the most sold car in the world 46 00:04:00.199 --> 00:04:06.719 innovation with like giget casting and on and on and on. So shoo shoo 47 00:04:06.800 --> 00:04:14.240 shoe. Maybe I'll be right in two twenty four. But job would you 48 00:04:14.280 --> 00:04:17.959 think. I think Toyota have to take off a Panasonic now otherwise around of 49 00:04:17.959 --> 00:04:21.199 the game. I think the consolidation is coming. We were just a year 50 00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:25.120 or two world of prediction, It's all right. My take on this is 51 00:04:25.120 --> 00:04:28.959 slightly different. So Toyota and Panasonic. No, but many brands are starting 52 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:33.480 to invest in Chinese firms, which really means they're slapping stagnant Western brands on 53 00:04:33.639 --> 00:04:39.759 purely Chinese cars for import to the West, pretending they're contributing something besides a 54 00:04:39.800 --> 00:04:44.079 familiar logo. So I think he's right in spirit, wrong in details. 55 00:04:44.199 --> 00:04:46.639 He took the risk but failed on the risk. I would say a two 56 00:04:46.680 --> 00:04:53.160 out of ten for this one. I get a bit more. No, 57 00:04:54.680 --> 00:05:00.519 I'm sorry. The sponsors were very clear that the thumb on the se far 58 00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:05.920 too heavy for the French person. The Irish have been the underdogs of Europe 59 00:05:05.920 --> 00:05:10.720 for so long they can't be oppressed any longer. Thank you very much, 60 00:05:10.759 --> 00:05:15.839 Micha. Okay, go to prediction number three. Okay, your d volatility 61 00:05:15.000 --> 00:05:19.560 in the energy market is here to stay. Okay, So volatility for me 62 00:05:19.759 --> 00:05:23.759 is not just prices going up. Volatility is there going up and down. 63 00:05:24.079 --> 00:05:29.759 And you've continued to see volatility across all commodities. You think of the price 64 00:05:29.759 --> 00:05:31.720 of oil, it's been up and down like a yo yo all year. 65 00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:35.360 I'd also say this something about natural gas. But most important thing I want 66 00:05:35.399 --> 00:05:41.199 to say is in and around electricity markets, which is electricity now because we've 67 00:05:41.240 --> 00:05:45.040 just got so much wind and solar in the system, particularly in a continent 68 00:05:45.079 --> 00:05:48.240 of Europe. What this means is we've periods where we have zero prices, 69 00:05:48.279 --> 00:05:53.920 minus prices, massive curtailment, and this is where the volatility is coming about. 70 00:05:54.360 --> 00:05:58.639 The weather is determining really the energy price, and I think that's here 71 00:05:58.639 --> 00:06:00.720 to stay. That's the way I'll describe. Yeah. I mean this is 72 00:06:00.720 --> 00:06:05.759 a very poetique description of the world. Volatility which is a technical terms when 73 00:06:05.759 --> 00:06:11.160 you are treating energy, and it helps to calculate the prices of options. 74 00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:15.720 So in fact, the premium of option has gone down, and that's correct 75 00:06:16.319 --> 00:06:21.160 you talk about volatility. The price of gas in Europe has gone down something 76 00:06:21.319 --> 00:06:26.040 like seventy five percent to date, but pretty much in a straight line. 77 00:06:26.480 --> 00:06:31.120 So technically it's not volatility. I understand what you're saying about negative prices, 78 00:06:31.240 --> 00:06:38.560 certainment and some but it's not the technical definition of vlatility. So I strongly 79 00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:43.480 hurge the independent referee to give a bad grade. Year I may I just 80 00:06:43.600 --> 00:06:46.199 say something on this, please. I come from the mathematics world, and 81 00:06:46.279 --> 00:06:51.600 mathematics, volatility is defined as a statistical measure of the dispersion of data around 82 00:06:51.600 --> 00:06:56.439 its mean over a certain period of time. And over the last year, 83 00:06:56.519 --> 00:07:00.000 what's happened is that volatility has gone up, not down. Just give me 84 00:07:00.199 --> 00:07:05.720 numbers and that would be my comment. It's a very fairly vague expression. 85 00:07:06.319 --> 00:07:11.000 So if you'd been a bit more precise about the range of volatility for specific 86 00:07:11.040 --> 00:07:14.399 commodities, I would give you a higher score on this. But we all 87 00:07:14.399 --> 00:07:18.360 know that volatility has been structurally baked in since the USA became the biggest oil 88 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:24.120 producer in twenty eighteen. Fracking and strale extraction proved to be debt laden and 89 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:28.720 short lived producers in twenty nineteen, and Opek started picking on high priced producers 90 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:31.519 in twenty twenty. Then, on top of that, the invasion of Ukraine 91 00:07:31.759 --> 00:07:36.079 and the most recent unpleasantness in the Middle East. We live in a much 92 00:07:36.120 --> 00:07:40.519 more volatile world for energy than we used to. So because of the lack 93 00:07:40.560 --> 00:07:45.360 of precision of your stuff, I will say seven out of ten, it's 94 00:07:45.360 --> 00:07:50.040 such an obvious one. It's a gimme. But that's jahas prediction, a 95 00:07:50.160 --> 00:07:57.040 vague yes, okay, next one, lot all there will be new alternatives 96 00:07:57.040 --> 00:08:03.439 to lithium ion in stationary storage. Okay, good. The reason I did 97 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:11.600 that excellent prediction was because the price of lithium into twenty two when crazy and 98 00:08:11.160 --> 00:08:18.120 I said, I thought, and I predicted that that would trigger alternative technologies. 99 00:08:18.800 --> 00:08:22.439 Well, clearly, on one hand, we didn't have any long dreation 100 00:08:22.600 --> 00:08:28.079 storage breakthrough like vanadium or or iron air. These are just the same prototypes 101 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:33.759 stagging along. But into our twenty three it's really the earware sodium exploded, 102 00:08:35.399 --> 00:08:39.960 and for me, it's the biggest story of the next five years. And 103 00:08:39.360 --> 00:08:46.840 it's always those price spikes who trigger a rapid transformation in battery chemicals. And 104 00:08:46.919 --> 00:08:52.120 let me elaborate into twenty eight with the spike in cobalt which triggered the development 105 00:08:52.159 --> 00:08:56.919 of ronkel batteries, into a twenty one with the spike in nickel which triggered 106 00:08:58.039 --> 00:09:03.480 the LFB battery and two twenty two spiking medium trigger sodium. Sodium is coming, 107 00:09:05.399 --> 00:09:09.559 and I have a good prediction here, despite the fact that the spot 108 00:09:09.639 --> 00:09:16.679 price of lithium is now back at the fifteen thousand dollars paton, which is 109 00:09:16.159 --> 00:09:24.240 down eighty percent this year. But still when you compare lithium and sodium sodium, 110 00:09:22.799 --> 00:09:28.200 the basic mataialist from pon. So sodium is going to appear, and 111 00:09:28.559 --> 00:09:33.480 my prediction is spot on or jar. What you gonna say, I'm gonna 112 00:09:33.480 --> 00:09:35.960 say, Yeah, you're absolutely right. Sodium is common, but sodium is 113 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:39.840 not here. Tell me where the installations were this year. You sent this 114 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:43.000 year, so they're coming next year? Do you want to use it as 115 00:09:43.000 --> 00:09:46.840 a prediction for next year? I can help you that or a year after 116 00:09:48.000 --> 00:09:50.919 maybe, But I mean, come on, Michael, there's no sodio batteries 117 00:09:50.919 --> 00:09:54.600 out there. Did have you seen one? As you guys know, I 118 00:09:54.600 --> 00:10:01.279 sat on the story board of a electro chemistry battery firm and I've dealt with 119 00:10:01.320 --> 00:10:03.440 grid storage globe. I've made predictions. I think it was even long duration 120 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:07.559 storage. I was on Redefining Energy talking about it a couple of years ago, 121 00:10:07.960 --> 00:10:11.399 and I know a lot about this stuff, and I'm just gonna say 122 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:18.799 electrochemistry is weird science. It's alchemy. It takes time to stabilize, to 123 00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:22.440 get right, it takes time to scale. Lithium mine has such a transcendent 124 00:10:22.600 --> 00:10:26.840 lead because it's in all of our watches and everything, that it's hard to 125 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:31.840 overcome that it's gone way down the rights experience curve. But that said, 126 00:10:31.279 --> 00:10:37.440 there are actual grid and behind the meter installations of vanadium redox flow batteries. 127 00:10:37.080 --> 00:10:43.320 Energy Vault actually managed to sell some of their stupid concrete block nonsense and it's 128 00:10:43.399 --> 00:10:48.600 under construction, which just boggles my mind. And pumped hydro is still going 129 00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:52.159 from strength to weakness to strength. There are pumped hydro facilities who went lives 130 00:10:52.200 --> 00:10:58.639 today. So right in principle, wrong in optimism, and missing some of 131 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:03.080 the other technologies. I'm going to give this a three out of ten. 132 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:09.679 Oh no, come on, I mean, are you teaving together? Typical 133 00:11:09.759 --> 00:11:13.480 friends right? Reckon? They always go on the attack. They just can't 134 00:11:13.519 --> 00:11:18.840 face facts. There's a thing in comedy called punching up, and how can 135 00:11:18.879 --> 00:11:22.320 you not be punching up when you're punching up at a grand old culture with 136 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:30.480 the best cheese and wine in the world. That don't worry, Okay, 137 00:11:30.679 --> 00:11:35.519 Gerard. The energy transition has no plan. It just goes and it seems 138 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:39.919 awfully familiar. I'm not sure why. Yeah, it's not my quote. 139 00:11:39.519 --> 00:11:43.799 That's not my quote, but I do like it because it's just The reason 140 00:11:43.879 --> 00:11:46.720 I said that was because I think the energy transition is just going to happen 141 00:11:46.840 --> 00:11:52.080 because of technology change. It's as simple as that technology change. The technology 142 00:11:52.159 --> 00:11:56.159 change means better product at lower costs. And you've seen that particularly, I 143 00:11:56.159 --> 00:11:58.240 would say, let's say solar. You've seeing that in batteries, and you've 144 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:01.360 seen it another technologies as well. So that's number one. And the other 145 00:12:01.399 --> 00:12:05.879 thing it has no plan. What you've got is governments who come out with 146 00:12:05.159 --> 00:12:07.759 goals. We're going to go and do this, We're going to reduce carbon 147 00:12:07.759 --> 00:12:11.919 emissions by that, but they don't actually have plans and how to do this. 148 00:12:11.000 --> 00:12:15.639 And that's what I said. I suppose it's a very vague comment. 149 00:12:15.720 --> 00:12:18.320 I know you're probably going to get me on the vagueness. But what here 150 00:12:18.360 --> 00:12:20.879 I am at the end of the year, and we just had COP twenty 151 00:12:20.919 --> 00:12:22.919 eight and I sort of go, oh my god. If you're talking about 152 00:12:24.039 --> 00:12:26.279 having no plan, I mean, that's as vague as you came. You 153 00:12:26.320 --> 00:12:31.360 know, it offers a transition away from fossil fuels, but no phase out. 154 00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:35.200 That's where I was coming from that when I said that, can I 155 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:39.639 totally disagree. You can say whatever you want is the Chinese government who is 156 00:12:39.840 --> 00:12:46.759 having very strict and coherent plans. You have the IRA in the US, 157 00:12:46.159 --> 00:12:50.639 which is going to work or not work. We can discuss that at length. 158 00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:56.240 So there is a real government push behind those technologies, and without the 159 00:12:56.399 --> 00:13:01.759 political support and financial support, they would not have reached where they are now. 160 00:13:03.320 --> 00:13:07.799 I'm on Laurent's side on this right. You have a very European centric 161 00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:13.679 perspective, as we've discussed before around different subjects. I give you the example 162 00:13:13.720 --> 00:13:20.919 of guide co GEI d COOD Memory Serves Global Energy Integration and Development Corporation founded 163 00:13:20.919 --> 00:13:28.159 in twenty sixteen by China under UN auspices to build HVDC interconnects between countries over 164 00:13:28.159 --> 00:13:33.759 one hundred and forty countries globally and at their funding research for like a twelve 165 00:13:33.879 --> 00:13:37.639 sub Saharan country HVDC super grid. They're funding a whole bunch of stuff. 166 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:41.320 In the Belton Road initiative, there is a plan, it's just in the 167 00:13:41.320 --> 00:13:46.919 West we're pretty light on actual plans and we're kind of hoping the market innovates 168 00:13:46.960 --> 00:13:50.559 us to success. And so you're right, but geographically constrained, I can 169 00:13:50.600 --> 00:13:56.559 only give you a six out of ten on this one man. Then last 170 00:13:56.559 --> 00:14:01.840 prediction, it's on me. Nuclear Westinghouse takes over Europe, and I was 171 00:14:01.960 --> 00:14:09.799 one hundred percent spot on. Belgaria has dropped Russia for Westinghouse, Slovenia has 172 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:16.559 chosen Westinghouse, such as Don Poland, and the Westinghouse is now with the 173 00:14:16.600 --> 00:14:20.399 Jurenko. They are supplying the fuel for all Eastern europe nuclup plants, probably 174 00:14:20.440 --> 00:14:28.440 at the exception of Hungary and Romania was a Canadian reactor has chosen the last 175 00:14:28.440 --> 00:14:33.679 evolution of can do to repower their new clup plants. So I think I'm 176 00:14:33.679 --> 00:14:37.679 spot on here. But when we say Westinghouse, we're really talking about Brookfield 177 00:14:37.679 --> 00:14:43.879 because Brookfield owns westing House. Yeah, absolus. Without Brookfield, I don't 178 00:14:43.879 --> 00:14:46.159 think westing House would have done so well. But you're spot on it, 179 00:14:46.360 --> 00:14:50.519 you know. In that regard. Gerard I'm just going to make exactly the 180 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:52.120 point that Lauran got the company around. He doesn't even know the name of 181 00:14:52.440 --> 00:14:54.960 it is called Brookfield. I'm glad you went in with that. Thank you 182 00:14:56.159 --> 00:15:01.080 very very much, very good Michael. You've just I don't need say anymore. 183 00:15:01.759 --> 00:15:03.399 How much of do I get? I think there's a lot going on 184 00:15:03.480 --> 00:15:07.840 here, and I think you're vastly more right than wrong. But there's some 185 00:15:07.080 --> 00:15:11.240 you know, other stuff going on. Westinghouse has also got Ontario now with 186 00:15:11.279 --> 00:15:16.039 a small new modular reactor, enabling them to defer any real climate action for 187 00:15:16.080 --> 00:15:20.120 another decade. You know. So Westinghouse under Brookfield is going from strength to 188 00:15:20.120 --> 00:15:24.879 strength and it's definitely taking over Europe. That's bang on. It's a good 189 00:15:24.919 --> 00:15:28.080 prediction. I'm going to give that one a nine out of ten. Yeah, 190 00:15:28.480 --> 00:15:35.519 annoying, Okay, total, Okay, the total four Girard twenty one, 191 00:15:37.240 --> 00:15:41.039 Well, laurraw fourteen. Did he get that much? He come into 192 00:15:41.279 --> 00:15:43.440 double digitch. I didn't think he was going to do a double disish. 193 00:15:45.320 --> 00:15:48.720 Nine on the last one took him into the double digits. So twenty one 194 00:15:48.799 --> 00:15:54.960 to fourteen still high risk, could have been really high reward and low risk 195 00:15:56.080 --> 00:16:03.159 vagueness got rewarded. As we said, noster damis as Irish. So the 196 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:18.120 winner for two twenty three is Gerard Read Okay, after this sad episode, 197 00:16:18.600 --> 00:16:29.279 Prediction number one, Michael, you're on. My first prediction is Stilantis, 198 00:16:29.720 --> 00:16:34.799 also known as merger and acquisitions aggregator of dying brands mostly European. It's going 199 00:16:34.919 --> 00:16:41.360 to stop pretending to be an automotive manufacturer and solely become a firm which slaps 200 00:16:41.360 --> 00:16:45.639 stable of brands on Chinese cars and distributed somewhere in the West. Wow. 201 00:16:45.000 --> 00:16:48.679 Job, I was going to say the same more. Wow. That's a 202 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:52.320 very interesting one, Michael. I like it very good and I think it'll 203 00:16:52.360 --> 00:16:57.960 be right. Yeah. And Santis on the top of having to harness fourteen 204 00:16:59.039 --> 00:17:03.240 or fifteen brands, which is difficult as a cultural problem because the CEO is 205 00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:07.119 a petrol head. This is the guy on the weekend he tweak a diesel 206 00:17:07.160 --> 00:17:11.759 engine and then on the Sunday you go to make races in nineteen seventies car 207 00:17:12.279 --> 00:17:18.880 so he just cannot fathom what electrification is about. And by the way, 208 00:17:18.960 --> 00:17:22.119 they didn't sign for NAX yet. Yeah, but don't forget they did do 209 00:17:22.200 --> 00:17:29.359 a twenty percent investment in a Chinese manufacture of automobiles and that's electric, pure 210 00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:33.240 electrics up. Yeah, So the the writings on the wall for them, 211 00:17:33.240 --> 00:17:37.160 they're dying out, and this is a strategy I think they would actually work 212 00:17:37.240 --> 00:17:48.279 for them. Okay, So my first prediction is elections could derail the energy 213 00:17:48.279 --> 00:17:52.440 transition. So two twenty four is the year of a lot of elections. 214 00:17:52.440 --> 00:17:53.799 So I'm not talking about Russia, which is of course going to be a 215 00:17:53.880 --> 00:17:57.880 joke. There's got to be election in India, Taiwan, probably in the 216 00:17:57.960 --> 00:18:03.400 UK he new parliament. That's more interesting, especially if the new parliament is 217 00:18:03.519 --> 00:18:07.319 more conservative than the one we have now. But of course I'm talking about 218 00:18:07.359 --> 00:18:14.160 the US election, and if Trump is elected, it's going to be something. 219 00:18:14.759 --> 00:18:19.119 And I just want to read Carlas Sand's advisor and vice chair of the 220 00:18:19.160 --> 00:18:26.039 Center for Energy and the Environment at the America First Policy Institute, and she 221 00:18:26.200 --> 00:18:32.079 says, on the first day of a second Trump administration, the president has 222 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:38.680 committed to rolling back every single one of Joe Biden's job killing, industry killing 223 00:18:40.279 --> 00:18:45.880 regulation. She said Trump would work with congressional leaders to curtail what she called 224 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:52.359 the socialist big government IRA scrap few eganomy standards, work cars, and end 225 00:18:52.400 --> 00:18:59.559 the war on American energy. That's my prediction. Comments. First of all, 226 00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:03.720 the IRA is best understood as a massive subsidy to the oil and gas 227 00:19:03.720 --> 00:19:08.680 industry. The hydrogen strategy was explicitly set up by Congress with a mandate letter 228 00:19:08.759 --> 00:19:15.720 saying make hydrogen from coal and natural gas and preserve fossil fuel infrastructure the hydrogen 229 00:19:15.799 --> 00:19:19.400 hubs. The vast majority of money and hydrogen is coming from the fossil fuel 230 00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:25.119 hubs. Four seven. I think Trump will face some headwinds in terms of 231 00:19:25.640 --> 00:19:29.920 actually reversing some of those policies, but that doesn't mean those policies shouldn't be 232 00:19:29.960 --> 00:19:33.519 reversed. It's just they're bad policies that are giving more money to the oil 233 00:19:33.519 --> 00:19:37.440 and gas industry. They're not environmental policies. But you're right, it will 234 00:19:37.480 --> 00:19:41.799 disrupt it. What I will say, Laurent, is your optimistic and timing 235 00:19:41.319 --> 00:19:45.960 because the election is in November, but he takes power in January. Sure, 236 00:19:47.559 --> 00:19:49.640 I agree with Roan. I think i'd add into it. There's also 237 00:19:49.680 --> 00:19:55.359 the possibility that you also get a German election as well, So without a 238 00:19:55.400 --> 00:19:59.359 doubt, there's a lot of political risk out there against the energy transition. 239 00:19:59.359 --> 00:20:03.160 That's what I would say. Yeah, definitely very strong. The USA is 240 00:20:03.160 --> 00:20:07.319 a weird, weird one though. Okay, Gerard, you're next, so 241 00:20:07.400 --> 00:20:17.480 I'm next. So let me start at my first prediction. We have oversupply 242 00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:22.519 of everything energy related, and I'm going to start with everything clean evs. 243 00:20:22.839 --> 00:20:26.920 I think there's going to be a surplus globally of evs next year, which 244 00:20:26.960 --> 00:20:30.599 means prices go down. You've already seen solar panels go down in twenty twenty 245 00:20:30.640 --> 00:20:34.799 three. I think that's going to continue in twenty twenty four. You're also 246 00:20:34.880 --> 00:20:41.160 seeing a surplace of wind turbines, and again same thing. You can see 247 00:20:41.160 --> 00:20:45.240 price pressure in that area. Batteries the exact same thing. And then actually, 248 00:20:45.240 --> 00:20:48.720 if I look at the fossil fuels, same thing. You've got a 249 00:20:48.759 --> 00:20:52.480 surplus of fossil fuels, whether that's natural gas, oil, coal, So 250 00:20:52.559 --> 00:20:57.440 I can just see continued price pressure across everything energy related. I have only 251 00:20:57.519 --> 00:21:03.440 one exception, that is transformers. You cannot get your hand on a transformer 252 00:21:03.599 --> 00:21:08.480 anywhere in the Western world. But other than that, everything else is surpas. 253 00:21:10.119 --> 00:21:15.680 Okay, good, I like it, Michael. My next prediction is 254 00:21:21.240 --> 00:21:26.880 the EU will formally create an EU HVDC and HVAC Grid and interconnect Planning and 255 00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:33.000 funding agency with a mandate for continent scale grid interconnection. Basically, that's the 256 00:21:33.119 --> 00:21:37.480 role of in Soye right now. Is it more like a club You think 257 00:21:37.519 --> 00:21:41.799 they're gonna go top down? I think they're gonna go top down like Guideco 258 00:21:42.319 --> 00:21:45.319 Michael. They should, there's no doubt. You are dead right. They 259 00:21:45.359 --> 00:21:49.839 should do this, and I hope they do it. But I'd be interesting 260 00:21:49.839 --> 00:21:52.039 to know just where you got that idea from. Where do you think it's 261 00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:55.880 coming I haven't heard that anywhere, So where's it coming from in your head? 262 00:21:56.759 --> 00:22:00.279 I've been looking for these organizations in the developer world for a couple of 263 00:22:00.359 --> 00:22:06.000 years, and they don't exist. They're starting to emerge as clubs, as 264 00:22:06.759 --> 00:22:11.559 utilities that work together. But I look at the world of interconnects and planning, 265 00:22:11.759 --> 00:22:15.119 I look at the toolkits we have. When I did my analysis of 266 00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:21.079 the major Chinese African study and the twelve country super grid, they were trying 267 00:22:21.119 --> 00:22:25.640 to assemble a European tool which was inadequate for the scale of the job. 268 00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:33.079 There aren't good tools for continental scale grid simulation with multiple energy sources somebody needs 269 00:22:33.119 --> 00:22:36.680 to fund and create that. Somebody needs to do this doing strategic stuff, 270 00:22:36.839 --> 00:22:41.119 and somebody needs to be assisting and overcoming and bridging the regulatory patchworks. Guide 271 00:22:41.119 --> 00:22:45.079 Co is doing that in the Belton Road initiatives, but guide Co and Belton 272 00:22:45.160 --> 00:22:51.559 Road aren't in Europe or in North America. North America has got a complete 273 00:22:51.680 --> 00:22:56.000 lack of regional or continent scale grid planning. We have some people who talk 274 00:22:56.079 --> 00:23:00.160 together in the Pacific Northwest, and the United States don't even include Canada. 275 00:23:00.880 --> 00:23:06.680 This kind of bigger scale thinking is a requirement, and Europe has the capacity 276 00:23:06.720 --> 00:23:10.599 to do this out of Brussels. The EU can do this North America can 277 00:23:11.000 --> 00:23:15.759 I like it? Yeah? Interesting? Interesting? So that's your prediction for 278 00:23:15.960 --> 00:23:19.400 two or thirty four, Michael, I just want to say one thing before 279 00:23:19.400 --> 00:23:23.200 we hear Laura's prediction. Lauran, your last prediction was very vague. Can 280 00:23:23.240 --> 00:23:26.799 you get something sort of a bit more sort of juicy this time? Yeah? 281 00:23:26.880 --> 00:23:38.039 Good. My second prediction for two twenty four is the return of clean 282 00:23:38.240 --> 00:23:42.839 energy shares. And what I want to say is two twenty three has been 283 00:23:42.880 --> 00:23:49.759 awful. Clean energy indexes YIELDKO they're all minus twenty five to minus forty percent. 284 00:23:51.400 --> 00:23:56.119 But interest rates have stabilized and they're probably going to start easing into a 285 00:23:56.200 --> 00:24:02.720 twenty four. Supply chains getting better, and those assets are now super cheap. 286 00:24:03.000 --> 00:24:06.720 If you look at mass Dar buying at the end of twenty three, 287 00:24:06.759 --> 00:24:11.400 a lot of show wind farms and it's the opposite of excellent journey when Mazda 288 00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:15.599 buy, it's the bottom of the market. And we had a few indexes 289 00:24:15.680 --> 00:24:21.119 like the Invesco while the Hill Clean Energy that's twenty eight percent, the I 290 00:24:21.240 --> 00:24:23.880 Shares Global Clean Energy is same twenty eight percent. I think a lot of 291 00:24:23.920 --> 00:24:29.720 those chairs are going to rebound very much into a twenty four. That's my 292 00:24:30.039 --> 00:24:33.279 prediction. I'm not sure about that because and the reason I'm not sure about 293 00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:38.519 it is because what you're seeing is we'll go back to my prediction, which 294 00:24:38.599 --> 00:24:42.440 is that the surplus of everything energy. When there's surplus of everything energy, 295 00:24:42.640 --> 00:24:45.960 margins go down. You don't want to hold those stocks in that period of 296 00:24:47.000 --> 00:24:49.880 time. Yeah, but a lot of those stocks are operators. They are 297 00:24:49.880 --> 00:24:53.720 all the operators I can get long with. We're up to you, okay, 298 00:24:55.119 --> 00:24:56.480 get love with the operators, right, good, look, we'll see 299 00:24:56.480 --> 00:25:02.039 in your That's my prediction. Certainly, when I look at eield cos and 300 00:25:02.079 --> 00:25:07.079 ETFs for clean energy, a lot of them were based upon deployed assets generating 301 00:25:07.079 --> 00:25:12.079 electricity, and those people will be fairly rewarded, I think. But yeah, 302 00:25:12.119 --> 00:25:15.559 it's going to be an interesting thing. Tough to call either way. 303 00:25:15.960 --> 00:25:21.000 So good prediction from my perspective, Gerard, I think it's your time, 304 00:25:21.599 --> 00:25:23.160 so last, but not least. And you're going to tell me this is 305 00:25:23.240 --> 00:25:33.720 vague. I know this. China rules the world. Oh come on, 306 00:25:34.319 --> 00:25:37.680 well, when let me just go on, let me give you a muff 307 00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:41.400 finished it, I'd say, China rule the world and they will install half 308 00:25:41.640 --> 00:25:48.720 of the global production of wind on shore and offshore solar EVS batteries next year. 309 00:25:48.799 --> 00:25:53.480 And what will end up happening is their companies. I'm talking BYD and 310 00:25:53.519 --> 00:26:00.640 evs, cohl and Batteries, gold Win and Wind. These companies will internationalize 311 00:26:00.519 --> 00:26:06.000 and we'll be driving BYD dolphins and cars like that by the end of the 312 00:26:06.079 --> 00:26:11.559 year. And what we'll see is envision in Goldwin turbines in Europe and in 313 00:26:11.599 --> 00:26:15.839 other parts of the world. That's my prediction. I can't disagree. I've 314 00:26:15.880 --> 00:26:21.119 been watching these statistics for top ten wind companies for a decade, and I've 315 00:26:21.119 --> 00:26:26.000 been seeing Vestis staying at the top, ge drifting downwards, but gold Wind 316 00:26:26.200 --> 00:26:30.359 drifting upwards. And now two of the top five last year were Chinese. 317 00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:33.519 I think three of the top five next year will be Chinese for Wind, 318 00:26:33.920 --> 00:26:38.440 and Goldwyn will probably hit number one. Based upon the challenges that Vestus and 319 00:26:38.480 --> 00:26:42.640 Siemens have been having in cars, Well, they're already making more cars and 320 00:26:42.680 --> 00:26:45.680 batteries than anybody else, so I think that's just saying they'll continue to make 321 00:26:45.720 --> 00:26:48.279 more cars and batteries than anybody else. So I'm not sure what you really 322 00:26:48.319 --> 00:26:52.599 meant by that. I just want to win next year. Mike sip that 323 00:26:52.680 --> 00:26:57.799 you know, it's all about winning, but this is predictions, not saying 324 00:26:59.160 --> 00:27:03.119 life will continue as usual. That's true, that's true, that's true. 325 00:27:03.640 --> 00:27:07.839 Okay, guys, it was a pleasure doing those predictions with you. We 326 00:27:07.960 --> 00:27:14.319 thank Expo, our partner, for supporting the show, and we have new 327 00:27:14.359 --> 00:27:18.160 partners coming in very soon, which is great, a good recognition of the 328 00:27:18.200 --> 00:27:22.200 show. Michael, you want to say something about redefinding cheat Tech After a 329 00:27:22.319 --> 00:27:27.000 year with us, It's been a great year. I've had amazing in depth 330 00:27:27.039 --> 00:27:33.599 conversations. My conversation with Sahara Rashie Baby was excellent dropping December on containership, 331 00:27:33.680 --> 00:27:41.200 container port, ground transportation, decarbonization, very interesting conversation. Generally, I 332 00:27:41.359 --> 00:27:45.839 like the fact that you have those almost two hours interviews so you can really 333 00:27:47.400 --> 00:27:51.799 dig deep into the technical aspect, which of course we don't have time to 334 00:27:51.799 --> 00:27:56.359 do on the main show. And guys, I wish you the two of 335 00:27:56.400 --> 00:28:00.640 you, the best year for two twenty four as well as for our listeners. 336 00:28:00.279 --> 00:28:03.680 Likewise, could look to everybody, to the two of you and to 337 00:28:03.759 --> 00:28:07.000 all our listeners this year, a happy new year, Joy in the well. 338 00:28:07.480 --> 00:28:11.359 But I have a gratuitous third prediction, which is it Gerard will now 339 00:28:11.440 --> 00:28:23.440 henceforth be known as Gerard Nostradamus. Reed for my vagueness. Okay, guys, 340 00:28:23.599 --> 00:28:36.920 bye, take care, Guys, thank you for listening to Redefining Energy. 341 00:28:37.359 --> 00:28:41.839 Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify or 342 00:28:41.880 --> 00:28:45.279 the platform of your choice.