1 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:22,800 We're back with another edition of the Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emily Dashinsky, 2 00:00:22,879 --> 00:00:26,239 culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the show 3 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,359 at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on x at fdr LST, 4 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,200 make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts, and of course to 5 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:38,960 the premium version of the Federalist dot com as well. Today is January sixteenth, 6 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:44,960 which means the long awaited, much anticipated Iowa caucuses are now in the 7 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,960 rear view mirror. As a slight tangent, I did finally learn today, 8 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:53,079 many years into this job and political journalism, that the correct way to say 9 00:00:53,119 --> 00:00:58,039 Iowa caucuses is plural. That sounds so obvious to all of you listening, 10 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,840 I'm sure, but I actually always wondered if it was sort of this thirty 11 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:06,239 thousand foot caucus. Of course, there are many caucuses happening in many different 12 00:01:06,239 --> 00:01:10,760 precincts, so this was not obvious to me, but it probably should have 13 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,719 been. Some people just say Iowa caucus. I'm sure I've said that on 14 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:18,040 the show before, Iowa caucus as the one big event, but again I 15 00:01:18,079 --> 00:01:21,719 looked it up finally got to the bottom of it. I'm ashamed to say 16 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:26,200 after all this time, and it is correctly referred to as the Iowa Caucuses. 17 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,560 So now the Iowa Caucuses are in the rear view mirror and we have 18 00:01:29,719 --> 00:01:34,159 all kinds of numbers to dive into. So I jumped on a zoom really 19 00:01:34,239 --> 00:01:38,079 quickly with my friend Spencer Brown, and it turned into a longer conversation, 20 00:01:38,439 --> 00:01:41,719 in fact, than I thought it would. Spencer's the managing editor over at 21 00:01:41,719 --> 00:01:45,560 town Hall. He is on special Report all the time. He probably seen 22 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,120 him on Fox or he's it's Spencer Brown on Twitter. Go ahead, give 23 00:01:49,159 --> 00:01:51,959 him a follow. He's prolific. He writes all the time at Townholl so 24 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,799 you can go read his work there, his analysis there. So this was 25 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,599 a zoom that turned into a podcast and wanted to bring it to everyone. 26 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,159 So we walked through what happened in Iowa, we look ahead to what could 27 00:02:04,159 --> 00:02:07,800 happen in New Hampshire, then in South Carolina, and then ultimately on Super 28 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:13,120 Tuesday, which is March fifth. So this thing is going. Now we're 29 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,479 the snowball that is headed down the hill, and you know, it seems 30 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:23,199 like there's a certain outcome at this point. If I were a betting woman, 31 00:02:23,759 --> 00:02:27,599 I would feel pretty good about where I'm putting my money in this case, 32 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,639 So I hope you enjoy again. What is a zoom conversation that we 33 00:02:30,759 --> 00:02:35,479 just kind of blew up into a whole podcast here. We'll of course be 34 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,479 back tomorrow with You're Wrong. I can't wait to hear what Molly and David 35 00:02:38,479 --> 00:02:40,919 have to say, and I'm sure I'll be back with Christopher Bedford on Thursday. 36 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:46,159 I have some great, great guests coming up, so please stay tuned 37 00:02:46,199 --> 00:02:49,400 for all of that. Thank you, as always for subscribing. It is 38 00:02:49,439 --> 00:02:53,159 super helpful if you subscribe, and if you leave the show review that helps 39 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:58,800 a ton appreciate it. Everyone, please enjoy this again. Zoom conversation that 40 00:02:58,879 --> 00:03:05,639 turned into aodcast was Spencer Brown from Townhill, Right. We have some interesting 41 00:03:05,719 --> 00:03:07,919 exit poll numbers that I want to get to Spencer. Also, the New 42 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:13,639 York Times did an analysis that isn't reliant on these sort of faulty and untrustworthy 43 00:03:13,759 --> 00:03:17,039 exit polls. They actually did a great breakdown in real time. They must 44 00:03:17,039 --> 00:03:22,560 have had their algorithms and fine working order last night, because as the results 45 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,000 were coming in, they were spitting it out by how candidates were doing in 46 00:03:27,159 --> 00:03:30,240 low income areas, high income areas, suburban areas, rural areas, educated 47 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,120 areas, less educated areas, and the like. So we're going to break 48 00:03:34,159 --> 00:03:37,680 all that down. But the basic news, the fact of the matter is 49 00:03:38,159 --> 00:03:42,919 that Donald Trump crossed the fifty percent threshold in Iowa. So not only did 50 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,280 he win, he crossed that fifty percent threshold, meaning most voters went to 51 00:03:46,319 --> 00:03:51,800 the polls and selected Donald Trump in Iowa. The bak around Aswami came I 52 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,280 think seven point seven percent, so he's nearly eight percent. He dropped out 53 00:03:54,319 --> 00:03:59,360 after Iowa. Most of that go most of those votes likely would have gone 54 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:03,159 to Donald Trump. So Donald Trump probably if THEVEK had dropped out before people 55 00:04:03,199 --> 00:04:08,599 who want to see Donald Trump nominated in Iowa. I think it's safe to 56 00:04:08,599 --> 00:04:13,240 say it's probably somewhere between fifty and fifty eight, close to sixty percent. 57 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,680 Nicky Haley came in a fairly distant third place. She was around nineteen percent. 58 00:04:17,759 --> 00:04:23,439 Around DeSantis won the second place contest, which was the only real contest 59 00:04:23,519 --> 00:04:27,800 last night, by about two points. He came out about twenty one percent 60 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,959 Spencer, so the second place race was close, but either way, we're 61 00:04:32,959 --> 00:04:39,079 talking double digit losses. For second place, which mirrors what we see in 62 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,160 national pulling. The RCP average nationally has Donald Trump around sixty one percent, 63 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,920 and I think Nikki Haley is at twelve percent to Saints's is at ten percent. 64 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:54,519 So massive gap between the first candidate and the second and third place candidate 65 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,120 there, Spencer, just quick reaction for you, now that we have the 66 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,279 big numbers and the the sort of thirty thousand foot breakdown out of the way, 67 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:05,759 what did you think. I imagine you were shocked to learn that Donald 68 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:09,759 Trump was the favorite candidate last night. You know, I was shocked to 69 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,160 see how long it took for that call to be made. You know, 70 00:05:12,199 --> 00:05:15,800 I thought thirty minutes was a little too long after the caucuses began. I 71 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,879 think it was interesting to see because after like a few main takeaways after the 72 00:05:19,879 --> 00:05:25,240 twenty twenty two midterms, and we saw how wrong polling could be and how 73 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:30,519 expectations set by poles could just be shattered in like one evening. I always 74 00:05:30,199 --> 00:05:33,839 was nervous about all these polls showing this lead, because again in twenty twenty 75 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,399 two, so many of the polls were wrong. Did I think they would 76 00:05:36,439 --> 00:05:41,240 be like thirty forty points wrong. No, not necessarily, but I did 77 00:05:41,319 --> 00:05:45,759 think there was always that chance that it could be maybe a little bit closer 78 00:05:45,759 --> 00:05:47,480 than what the polls were saying, but they weren't. The polls were actually 79 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,720 incredibly accurate, at least in Iowa. Like you said, the RCP average 80 00:05:50,879 --> 00:05:55,079 had it almost you know, right on the money as far as how things 81 00:05:55,079 --> 00:05:58,040 were going to shake out, and it's not even close. Like you said, 82 00:05:59,439 --> 00:06:01,439 turned out to be pretty accurate. That Dumoines Prodister turned out to be 83 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:06,519 pretty accurate, which I hope is a standard that stays because for people in 84 00:06:06,519 --> 00:06:11,800 the media and people covering and commenting on this, until yesterday, polls were 85 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,879 all we had to go on. And it's such an uneasy feeling to be 86 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:16,120 just saying, you know, well, these people talk to a thousand people 87 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:17,959 in this state and then this is what it looks like. You know, 88 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:23,800 it's hard to really make predictions based on that. But at least if people 89 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,800 are polling and the polsters doing these are, you know, accurate in Iowa, 90 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,800 hopefully they will be through the next couple contest, which again we go 91 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:31,639 to New Hampshire at the end of this month, and then about a month 92 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,639 after that we're in South Carolina. I think in Iowa, one of the 93 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:41,360 notable things to me was uh, and this kind of comes from both of 94 00:06:41,399 --> 00:06:44,360 our backgrounds at You in America's foundation, looking at where the youth vote was, 95 00:06:44,399 --> 00:06:46,519 because that's something that conservatives are always worried about, you know, like, 96 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,319 are the kids all right? What are they thinking, what are they 97 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,040 doing? I mean, they're never all right. They're never all right. 98 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,959 That is definitely true. But it was interesting to see sort of a very 99 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,319 clear break among young Republicans in Iowa going for DeSantis. And I don't know 100 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:00,879 necessarily what that means about the future of the party and things like that, 101 00:07:00,959 --> 00:07:05,240 but I did think it was interesting that they didn't necessarily scatter across the candidates, 102 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,360 it seems like, and the DeSantis campaign pointed out quite a bit last 103 00:07:09,439 --> 00:07:13,839 night that young people sort of broke for their candidate. And that was interesting 104 00:07:13,879 --> 00:07:16,680 for me to see because I think some people may have expected Ramaswami to maybe 105 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,199 do better with young people because he's a younger person in the race. You 106 00:07:19,199 --> 00:07:24,920 know, he's got a young family. He is speaking in ways that are 107 00:07:24,959 --> 00:07:28,199 a lot more frequently kind of resonating with young people. You know, he 108 00:07:28,279 --> 00:07:30,240 used TikTok, whatever you make of that decision, I would disagree with that. 109 00:07:30,319 --> 00:07:33,240 But you know, he was seemingly kind of running a younger campaign, 110 00:07:33,279 --> 00:07:36,160 but that didn't seem to, you know, help him out that much. 111 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:41,399 But in general, I think trump speech at the end of the night I 112 00:07:41,399 --> 00:07:46,079 actually really liked because he was complimentary to everybody else who was running against him, 113 00:07:46,079 --> 00:07:47,800 even though he had been sort of throwing them under the bus one at 114 00:07:47,839 --> 00:07:50,800 a time and the run up to the Iowa caucuses, but he stuck struck 115 00:07:50,839 --> 00:07:55,600 I think was even a vague yeah, who had denied when asked about being 116 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,279 thrown under the bus that he had been thrown under the bus. But it 117 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,079 was pretty clear that he was un the Trump bus that had its snow tires 118 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,040 on for Iowa. But his speech I think was the right tone, and 119 00:08:05,079 --> 00:08:07,439 he's right that, like, based on results like this, it is time 120 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,199 for Republicans to come together because Democrats, of course, even though they're shutting 121 00:08:11,199 --> 00:08:16,560 out any challengers, are very much at least pretending they're united around Joe Biden 122 00:08:16,639 --> 00:08:20,279 or the ghost of Joe Biden that's going to hobble through to November. But 123 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:22,639 I did think that his speech was very well put in kind of assessing the 124 00:08:22,639 --> 00:08:28,560 state of the race. DeSantis's speech was very brief. At the end of 125 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,680 the night, he didn't say much other than, you know, they punched 126 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,320 our ticket out of Iowa, which with a second place finish in Iowa would 127 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:37,799 normally be the case. I don't know how far that ticket that's punched with 128 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:41,440 a second place finish that's you know, thirty points behind gets you. It's 129 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:45,000 a little bit different than you know, first, second, third in Iowa. 130 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,960 You know, when you're that far apart, I don't know how far 131 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,840 it'll get them. And then Nikki Haley of course commented that this was a 132 00:08:50,879 --> 00:08:54,639 two man race after coming in third place, which was a little confusing on 133 00:08:54,679 --> 00:09:01,120 that argument from her, want to go into my very solemn and pr voice 134 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:05,759 and say, well, Spencer, there's a lot to unpack there. Truly, 135 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,120 you took a tour of the Iowa caucus from start to finish, it 136 00:09:11,159 --> 00:09:16,279 in all ninety nine counties, well did on the special report training on the 137 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:20,559 point of ninety nine counties, I do think that it is somewhat funny that 138 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:26,799 Trump was deprived of sweeping all ninety nine counties by one vote in one county, 139 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,080 that he lost to Micky Haley, which it's not really lost when it's 140 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,559 by one vote, but Johnson County said, we're going to throw one in 141 00:09:33,639 --> 00:09:35,639 the other column. And it's just like, I feel like that always happens 142 00:09:35,639 --> 00:09:39,799 though, Like there's always kind of one spoiler that stops it from being like 143 00:09:39,879 --> 00:09:46,679 the perfect sweep of something. It's not funny, it's uproarious. So some 144 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,240 can say that, Yeah, many people are saying. So. The other 145 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,919 thing you get to here is turnout was low. It wasn't you know. 146 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:58,480 So basically there's been a record level of turnout in twenty sixteen for Republicans. 147 00:09:58,639 --> 00:10:01,799 I think it is somewhere around one hundred forty seven thousand people turned out for 148 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,480 those caucuses. Yesterday was really really cold. There's been a lot of snow 149 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,840 in Iowa, reces the cold. Yeah, that's what. Yeah, Like 150 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,960 historically they're saying it was actually the coldest ever caucus and there had been all 151 00:10:15,039 --> 00:10:18,360 kinds of predictions about what that was going to do to turn out. You 152 00:10:18,399 --> 00:10:22,559 know, turnout was down. It's fairly low turnout. We're talking somewhere north 153 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,279 of one hundred thousand votes were cast in Iowa. But that is to say, 154 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,600 this selection of people who did come out in the cold to caucus last 155 00:10:30,639 --> 00:10:35,840 night had been many, many, many millions. We're talking hundreds of millions 156 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,840 of dollars had been spent trying to persuade them to vote for particular voters, 157 00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:46,200 or for particular candidates, or vote against particular candidates last night and when push 158 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,600 came to shove, and by the way, not just time, but lots 159 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:54,200 of money, which we know also Spencer is time all of that going into 160 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:58,399 the last year in Iowa. And it looks like Nikki Haley in terms of 161 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,639 AD dollars, ended up spending the most. Ronda Santis was pretty close to 162 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:07,440 her, spending a little bit less. Ronda Santis' entire campaign strategy was predicated 163 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,840 on Iowa. He hired as his top consultant basically Jeff Rowe, who was 164 00:11:11,879 --> 00:11:16,679 sort of known for helping Ted Cruz lose. And I say that tongue in 165 00:11:16,759 --> 00:11:20,120 cheek because in d C that's how you can, you know, build repute 166 00:11:20,159 --> 00:11:22,519 as you can help Ted Cruz lose. And then he had some success with 167 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:26,879 Glenn Younkin, which your credit record is do there, but you know, 168 00:11:28,279 --> 00:11:31,639 was seen as somebody is in Iowa guru because cruise by Trump in Iowa, 169 00:11:31,279 --> 00:11:35,840 and that means that, you know, just if DeSantis wins Iowa, he 170 00:11:35,879 --> 00:11:39,200 can you not worry so much about New Hampshire, which is probably seen as 171 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:43,720 more favorable ground. It's an open primary to Nikki Haley. And then South 172 00:11:43,759 --> 00:11:46,080 Carolina, which is, you know, at least seems like it should be 173 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:52,080 more favorable territory to Nikki Haley, who was the former governor of the state. 174 00:11:52,639 --> 00:11:56,200 She is pulling second to Trump in South Carolina as of right now, 175 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:01,519 but a very very very very distant second it as is the case, or 176 00:12:01,519 --> 00:12:05,720 we should just say many such cases, Spencer. So all of that is 177 00:12:05,759 --> 00:12:09,399 to say, this is to set up a big question for you, which 178 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:13,840 is does Iowa do How much do the results from last night actually matter? 179 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:22,480 I think they matter, maybe primarily because of what they show about Republican primary 180 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:24,799 voters. And by that you ticked through a lot of the things, whether 181 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,440 it's the ad spending. You know, Nikki Haley and Ronde Santis both spent 182 00:12:30,039 --> 00:12:33,080 a significant amount of money for each vote that they got. Like if you 183 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,600 break it down and you realize that like the final vote totals, Rond de 184 00:12:35,639 --> 00:12:41,120 Santis had twenty three thousand, some hundred votes and how much money he spent. 185 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,799 The cost per vote is absolutely astronomical. But that's how Iowa works because 186 00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:48,879 you have to try to get every single person there, so you have the 187 00:12:48,919 --> 00:12:52,039 ad dollars that are spent. Then you look at Nikki Haley and you know 188 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,840 she got the endorsement of Americans for Prosperity, so she had the whole Coke 189 00:12:56,919 --> 00:13:00,919 network behind her in Iowa. And it's grassroots game that's generally regarded as like 190 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:05,039 the grassroots organization on the center, right, And then it still does, 191 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,159 by the way heading into noon for South Carolina, correct. And then you 192 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,240 have someone like Ramaswami who did the full grass lee not once but twice, 193 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:15,440 visiting all ninety nine counties at least two times in the run up to the 194 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:20,720 caucuses. And look at what that got them. That got them distant second, 195 00:13:20,759 --> 00:13:24,360 third, and fourth and dropping out. And so I think what you're 196 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,200 looking at and this was reflected I think in some polls going back even before 197 00:13:28,279 --> 00:13:31,639 this year started, even before last at the end of last year, and 198 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:37,879 it was so many Republican voters are so committed to Donald Trump that they've made 199 00:13:37,919 --> 00:13:41,039 up their mind maybe even before he announced that he was running, that they 200 00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:45,120 were going to support him in twenty twenty four, and so no amount of 201 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,600 ground game from AFP or visits from candidates you know, doing full grass lees 202 00:13:48,639 --> 00:13:54,120 twice over, or ads on TV are going to change their mind. And 203 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,840 I think maybe wrongly, I guess in I was case obviously wrongly, A 204 00:13:58,919 --> 00:14:03,480 lot of people and Republican consultants or pundits or anyone may have thought that multiple 205 00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:09,440 indictments against Trump and all of these things would have dinged him and made those 206 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,519 people who have been committed to Trump for maybe over a year at this point 207 00:14:11,639 --> 00:14:16,440 changed their mind was just the wrong conclusion. And I think you've seen as 208 00:14:16,519 --> 00:14:20,879 those cases have all progressed, they've moved the goalposts on what it will take 209 00:14:20,039 --> 00:14:24,519 for Republicans who say they support Trump to vote for someone else. And now 210 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,399 the only thing really left is that he's a convicted felon, maybe in prison. 211 00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:31,440 That would make those voters change their mind. And I honestly don't think 212 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:35,159 that that would change their mind either. But that's of course kind of an 213 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,080 open question because we haven't gotten to that point yet, and so we don't 214 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:43,799 know officially that Republicans will stay with Trump even if that happens. But everybody 215 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:48,639 kind of assumed that their minds could be changed, when clearly, based on 216 00:14:48,679 --> 00:14:54,440 what we justa on Iowa, nobody really changed their mind. The Watched Out 217 00:14:54,519 --> 00:14:58,600 on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski. Every day Chris helps unpack the connection 218 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,559 between politics and the econom and how it affects your wallet. Biden still wants 219 00:15:01,639 --> 00:15:05,519 more of your money this time. It's called a perpetuity tax. The more 220 00:15:05,559 --> 00:15:09,919 you make, the more you pay in. Even though you get taxed already 221 00:15:09,919 --> 00:15:13,320 from your income. Small businesses will get waxed without seeing the money they actually 222 00:15:13,399 --> 00:15:16,039 put in. Whether it's happening in DC or down on Wall Street, it's 223 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:20,559 affecting you financially. Be informed. Check out the Watchdot on Wall Street podcast 224 00:15:20,559 --> 00:15:22,879 with Chris Markowski on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. 225 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,120 So, before we get to New Hampshire, Spencer so eager to turn the 226 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:35,799 page here on Iowa. No, because I mean, actually the question that 227 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,720 I just asked you, which is how much does Iowa mean actually directly tied 228 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,919 into New Hampshire and South Carolina and the rest of the race. I want 229 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,679 to the just pause on Iowa for a second, so that we can address 230 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:52,360 what happened with the media last night, because the Desants campaign came out swinging 231 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:58,480 when around eight thirty pm, so that's that's East Coast time, so seven 232 00:15:58,559 --> 00:16:04,639 thirty pm FO time in Iowa, almost every network started calling the race for 233 00:16:04,919 --> 00:16:10,960 Trump. And the process in Iowa is that you check in to caucus, 234 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,360 so you have to check in by like six thirty or seven pm. The 235 00:16:14,399 --> 00:16:18,639 caucus starts, as people probably remember a story tradition in American politics, so 236 00:16:18,919 --> 00:16:22,840 it works a little differently for both parties. But you have the surrogates in 237 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:29,120 each location give the stuff speech on behalf of their candidate, and then people 238 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,360 cast physical paper ballots. I don't know if you were watching CNN last night, 239 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:37,480 Spencer, so yeah, it was actually neither of us regularly watches CNN, 240 00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:41,799 but I tuned in last night and there was just like this amazing presumably 241 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:49,279 retired woman who was on a volunteer basis, presumably also walking Dana Bash live 242 00:16:49,759 --> 00:16:55,279 for minutes. I mean, it was like watching reality TV basically because it 243 00:16:55,320 --> 00:17:00,679 was so raw as she was tabulating the physical paper ballot with her team at 244 00:17:00,679 --> 00:17:06,279 this local Iowa precinct think it was just incredible, and you have all of 245 00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:11,440 that disrupted as it's happening about half an hour in because some of the smaller 246 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,319 precincts especially are able to tabulate these results more quickly, and all the networks 247 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,480 are just like, yeah, Donald Trump won this. He won it handily 248 00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:22,000 enough that we can call it a half an hour into this thing. But 249 00:17:22,079 --> 00:17:25,960 in other larger precincts, not even everybody had gotten through their speeches. The 250 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:30,200 process was not over. People have cell phones now and so they're seeing that 251 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:34,880 the race is called. The Disantis team immediately had a fairly testy exchange on 252 00:17:36,079 --> 00:17:40,319 air on I think that was on NBC with someone in the news. They 253 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:44,720 immediately put out a statement saying this is election interference. And again, you 254 00:17:44,759 --> 00:17:48,519 know, they had one of their campaign representatives and he's actually a campaign manager 255 00:17:48,839 --> 00:17:53,839 going back and forth with this NBC reporter on whether that was appropriate. Spencer, 256 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,759 I think one of the important things that we think about, and it's 257 00:17:57,799 --> 00:18:00,880 the reason that a lot of these news outlets, if not all of them, 258 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:06,279 have a policy not to call a race while ballots are still being cast, 259 00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:08,880 is that it can affect turnout. That's one of the biggest things that 260 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,640 we think about in Iowa last night, it could not have effected turnout because 261 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:17,920 everybody had to have already been checked in to caucus by the time the results 262 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:22,519 were called. That's said. That's said, and with the additional caveat that 263 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:30,039 the polls were pretty accurate to the results. That said, just in principle, 264 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,960 it does seem to be an unnecessary and disturbing violation and I'm not even 265 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:40,480 saying disturbing sarcastically. It does seem to be like an unnecessary and disturbing violation 266 00:18:40,559 --> 00:18:45,039 of norms for the sake of ratings and beating the other guys to the punch. 267 00:18:45,039 --> 00:18:48,440 Well, and it's I think it was kind of a perfect storm of 268 00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:52,200 things that all happen. Things, some things that have been a long time 269 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,960 coming, some things that are more unique to the twenty twenty four cycle. 270 00:18:56,319 --> 00:19:00,839 But if you think about how the coxes work, again, a very fun 271 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,200 to watch process because it's just these people, it's like hyper local Republican political 272 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:08,359 officials, many of them wearing very colorful, sparkly red, white and blue 273 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:12,640 hats and coats and everything else whatever doing this process. And because it's a 274 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,960 caucus and not a primary. Again, at seven pm. That's when the 275 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,319 doors are closed on the caucus sites, and you know people are in, 276 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,920 and the turnout at that point isn't going to change. Of course, that 277 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,799 doesn't mean people aren't going to turn around and walk out the door, which 278 00:19:25,839 --> 00:19:29,799 according to some people, was happening in some sites after that call was made. 279 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,240 But it's unique in that the policy that a lot of the networks were 280 00:19:33,279 --> 00:19:38,319 called out for apparently violating with the call so early didn't. It's not a 281 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,680 perfect match for what a caucus is. But like you pointed out, it's 282 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,359 twenty twenty four. Everybody has a cell phone and Apple Watch, and I've 283 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,039 had who knows what else, and every single news outlet called it within about 284 00:19:49,079 --> 00:19:53,680 five minutes thirty minutes after the caucus has started. And so even if you're 285 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,200 not reading the news on your phone, if you're on Twitter, you definitely 286 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:00,480 saw it immediately. But even if you weren't actively looking to see how it 287 00:20:00,519 --> 00:20:03,279 was going, everybody got a push notification from one of those news outlets, 288 00:20:03,319 --> 00:20:07,279 so they immediately then know okay, Trump has won this. And so the 289 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,319 interference part, I feel like, is just sort of on the rationale that 290 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,640 people had going in because there were so many people, according to some of 291 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:22,079 those polls, that had still remained undecided into caucus night, and maybe until 292 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,640 they walked in that room and heard the pitches from in some cases the actual 293 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,279 candidates, you know, they go to one or two sites, but surrogates 294 00:20:27,279 --> 00:20:30,359 at these other places. And so if you think about what if you go 295 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,279 in and you're undecided, and then you know you're standing there listening to the 296 00:20:34,319 --> 00:20:38,799 second candidate pitch and you find out Donald Trump is one, does that change 297 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,599 how you're going to vote? You know? Does that mean that you then 298 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,519 vote for Trump? Because you want to vote for the winner, so you 299 00:20:44,519 --> 00:20:45,359 can say like, oh, yeah, I helped him do that, or 300 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,880 do you vote against him because you know he's already won it, but you 301 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,319 want to show that there's interest in another candidate. Like, there's all these 302 00:20:52,319 --> 00:20:56,039 things that are unique to each person who was there and when they found out 303 00:20:56,039 --> 00:20:59,000 and what their mindset was when they went in that there's just so much unknown. 304 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:03,440 It seems like there needs to be some sort of maybe and I think 305 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,720 the only way to fix this is the Republican Party of Iowa would need to 306 00:21:06,839 --> 00:21:11,839 change either its reporting process or the reporting rules where there's a certain cutoff, 307 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,400 at which point they then release all the numbers instead of because like you said, 308 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,359 each of these locations, some were large school gymnasiums, some were large 309 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:23,279 church you know areas, some were tiny, little like small businesses where there 310 00:21:23,279 --> 00:21:26,599 were like four people at that precinct location. And so when you say, 311 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,759 okay, four people are here, who are your voting for? You write 312 00:21:29,799 --> 00:21:32,680 it down. You have your number in a minute. And so those are 313 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,759 reported in and then made public immediately. Is there something that needs to change 314 00:21:36,799 --> 00:21:41,880 with you know, the caucuses start at seven and results are made public starting 315 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,680 at eight local time. You know, I don't know what to do, 316 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:49,559 but it seems like there's nothing as it stands now that necessarily prohibited anyone from 317 00:21:49,599 --> 00:21:52,519 doing that, even though the spirit of sort of how you cover an election 318 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,640 may have been breached. But then I think the other more recent problem is 319 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,279 that Donald Trump, as the poll showed, is up so much that it 320 00:22:00,319 --> 00:22:06,359 is most Iowa caucuses are not a runaway landslide like this, like Trump's win 321 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:10,920 was historic that had not happened by that much before, and especially when you 322 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,119 look at the twenty twenty Democrat caucuses, which were a disaster because I don't 323 00:22:14,319 --> 00:22:17,200 really actually know who won, but if you look at just how close it 324 00:22:17,279 --> 00:22:18,920 was that you had both Britney Sanders and Pete boot Judge coming out of Iowa 325 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:23,079 claiming that they had won, and in Republican caucuses in prior years they've had 326 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,440 very close I think it was between san torm and Romney. There was that 327 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,759 back and forth over who won on election or on caucus night, then it 328 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,799 changed, then more votes were counted, and it went back and forth. 329 00:22:33,079 --> 00:22:37,039 This is not a case where it's even close to that. And so I 330 00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:41,319 think the sort of novelty of Trump being the far and away front runner compounded 331 00:22:41,319 --> 00:22:45,559 the fact that everybody has a phone, this stuff is reported immediately, and 332 00:22:45,599 --> 00:22:49,039 it just created what I think was a good point maybe for DeSantis to seize 333 00:22:49,079 --> 00:22:52,680 on. But I was surprised that his first response was to that and not 334 00:22:52,839 --> 00:22:56,799 focused on making sure that he got second place behind Trump. If that makes 335 00:22:56,799 --> 00:23:00,799 sense, No, it does. I was talking about this with my colleagues 336 00:23:00,839 --> 00:23:03,319 at Breaking Points. We did a segment earlier this morning, and it was 337 00:23:03,319 --> 00:23:07,799 interesting because Crystal Ball, who's obviously on the left, was thinking back to 338 00:23:07,839 --> 00:23:12,119 what happened that scarred a lot of Democrats in twenty twenty with their Iowa caucus 339 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:17,519 process. We still actually do not know who won the Iowa coccus in twenty 340 00:23:17,559 --> 00:23:19,119 twenty, like, but a judge claimed it, other people have claimed it, 341 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,480 but honestly, goodness, like, it's just really hard to know what 342 00:23:22,559 --> 00:23:26,200 actually happened there and what the voter sentiments really were down to like an accurate, 343 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,799 precise figure. And that's why she was looking at this and saying, 344 00:23:30,799 --> 00:23:33,680 I actually think that the Santa's team is one hundred percent right to go hard 345 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:38,720 on the paint here, because if you think hypothetically about a nightmare scenario where 346 00:23:38,839 --> 00:23:44,400 Republican voters who were told by the former president by the way, that there 347 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,440 was literal vote tampering happening, you know, it wasn't some like as much 348 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,440 as you know, I think it might have been coming from some really fringe 349 00:23:51,519 --> 00:23:56,400 voices like Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani, who at the Federalist we had been 350 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,960 critical of from the very beginning of when some of these ideas were being floated. 351 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,359 Still, the President made the mistake of repeating some of them. For 352 00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:08,640 everything he said that was accurate about the election being rigged. As my cognmally 353 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:15,119 Hemingway has written, I think, in great detail with fantastic reporting on for 354 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:19,359 all of that. There are a lot of people primed now and for good 355 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,599 reason, to not trust anything. And what scared me a little bit, 356 00:24:23,839 --> 00:24:29,200 I will admit last night is when the Desantas campaign immediately jumped to the phrase 357 00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:33,599 election interference. They emailed that a statement as this was all happening, just 358 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:38,960 criticizing them for quote election interference. And you could just see in the future 359 00:24:40,519 --> 00:24:45,759 a close caucus where I mean, I guess maybe presumably they wouldn't be able 360 00:24:45,799 --> 00:24:48,880 to call it that early if the results were closer, but still, let's 361 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,319 say we're talking about a ten point difference, it's easy to call maybe an 362 00:24:52,319 --> 00:24:56,599 hour into the caucusing, and still everybody isn't done with all of their speeches. 363 00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:03,640 You can just envision because of how divided and of how low trust of 364 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,920 a society we are right now, not because of Donald Trump, but because 365 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,759 of the freaking media. I mean again, to blame Donald Trump for sowing 366 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:15,680 distrust among voters is outrageous, Like is perfectly rational not to trust the results 367 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,400 of elections anymore because the media is lying to you all the time. About 368 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,640 everything else. And as much as I think, you know, there were 369 00:25:22,799 --> 00:25:27,799 unfortunate, outright lies and crazy theories that were being spread, I don't think 370 00:25:27,799 --> 00:25:33,880 that reflects on people. I think it reflects on you know, the the 371 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,240 leaders that you decided to lie to people, but the rest of us have 372 00:25:37,279 --> 00:25:40,599 no idea what the hell is going on, So you can just envision the 373 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,319 nightmare scenario going forward. No, that's exactly right. And I mean how 374 00:25:44,319 --> 00:25:48,599 many times and just the last I mean, I think of people who have 375 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,079 been in Washington and conservative politics for like forty years, and I'm like, 376 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,039 how do you keep going? Because we've been doing this now for I would 377 00:25:55,039 --> 00:25:57,039 say too long in my case, but we've been doing this and we have 378 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:02,319 so many examples that we would need like three podcasts just to list them all 379 00:26:02,599 --> 00:26:07,160 of how many times an official source says X and then the rest of the 380 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,119 media says, well, these experts say X, and then it turns out 381 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,000 the opposite is true, or it's total bunk, or none of that actually 382 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,319 happened. And that's everything from you know, the intelligence community letter before the 383 00:26:18,319 --> 00:26:22,240 election about you know, the hunter Biden's laptop. It goes to COVID stuff. 384 00:26:22,279 --> 00:26:30,960 It goes to winning yes, and it's and the thing that I think 385 00:26:32,039 --> 00:26:33,839 is really disturbing is it's not like those are the things that come to mind 386 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,920 quickly when we're thinking about it, because those are like massive, you know, 387 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:44,920 sort of narrative changing potentially election changing outcomes from those. But it also 388 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,480 like that happens every single day, and so this whole idea that like Republicans 389 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,599 are the one undermining trust in our institutions is so ridiculous. And like I 390 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,160 just covered today, the Biden administration just got caught pushing another false narrative at 391 00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,599 the border with the situation where the mother and two children drowned near Eagle Pass, 392 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:06,000 and the Biden administration said that it was because Governor Abbott had seized that 393 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,319 park there that's on the border and kicked the federal border agents out in order 394 00:27:08,319 --> 00:27:12,400 to actually enforce the border. The Border Patrol Union applauded that decision, but 395 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:17,160 then there were these three drownings, and the Biden administration blamed Abbot. But 396 00:27:17,279 --> 00:27:22,160 now in a filing, Biden's own DJ admits that the drowning happened at least 397 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,079 an hour before anybody bothered to tell the Texas officials there that that had happened, 398 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,000 and so it's another complete live ap ran with it. They put it 399 00:27:30,039 --> 00:27:33,599 all over the place, and it's just like every almost every single story that 400 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,039 comes out, you have to just be like, I don't trust it, 401 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,759 like you have to be skeptical about it. And you can't trust experts necessarily, 402 00:27:40,799 --> 00:27:42,960 you can't you take the government's word or these agencies that are supposed to 403 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:47,880 be impartial or anything like that, and it just and you're right. So 404 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,160 immediately when Desanta says this is election interference, it's like, sure, what 405 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,440 okay, Like, how do we how are we going to make it through 406 00:27:56,279 --> 00:28:00,599 New Hampshire South Carolina and then God help us the general election and we don't 407 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,160 know what's going on or who to trust, or who's saying the right thing 408 00:28:04,279 --> 00:28:08,839 or the wrong thing or whatever. Yeah, well, no, I meant 409 00:28:10,599 --> 00:28:15,880 and I think that's why. I think that's why when you look at and 410 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,359 I'm going to pull this up right here, because it's the I don't know, 411 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,920 did you have a chance to look at some of the exit polling. 412 00:28:22,079 --> 00:28:26,119 I'm sure you did, obviously you are the managing editor Revenues say that's a 413 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:30,720 dumb question. I don't really love news, well, when you can force 414 00:28:30,759 --> 00:28:34,839 yourself to read the news. Spencer, there was some interesting stuff in the 415 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,359 exit polling, so you mentioned the age thing, which also reminds me by 416 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,680 the way, one poll that I saw back in twenty fifteen, I think 417 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:47,640 it was had the only Republican candidate beating Hillar Clinton with young voters as Marco 418 00:28:47,799 --> 00:28:52,000 Rubio, which I've always that's kind of stuck with me for one reason or 419 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:56,559 another. I've always thought that that was interesting. But last night, among 420 00:28:56,279 --> 00:29:02,599 voters who were seventeen to twenty nine, Ronda Santis got thirty percent, It 421 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,880 was only nine percent of total voters, and Trump got twenty two percent. 422 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:10,240 So again this is from makes it pulling some college or less than some college. 423 00:29:10,319 --> 00:29:12,759 That was half of voters last night, and Donald Trump won them by 424 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:18,960 sixty seven percent. Donald Trump also had a plurality of college graduates though, 425 00:29:18,279 --> 00:29:23,480 so he had thirty seven percent to DeSantis's twenty six percent and Haley's twenty eight 426 00:29:23,519 --> 00:29:30,839 percent. And then of this was probably my favorite of people who identified not 427 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:36,079 as Republicans but as independents or something else or I'm sorry, this was my 428 00:29:36,119 --> 00:29:42,640 favorite as people who identified as moderate slash liberal Niki Haley cleaned up was sixty 429 00:29:42,839 --> 00:29:49,000 three percent of the vote that FNNY I assume, Yeah, eleven percent of 430 00:29:49,039 --> 00:29:52,640 people who caucused last night identified as moderate slash liberal, and Nicky Haley got 431 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,839 sixty three percent of their vote. People who identified as very conservative went for 432 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:03,160 Trump at a rate of sixty one per Somewhat conservative went for Trump at forty 433 00:30:03,279 --> 00:30:07,839 seven percent. White evangelical Christians. That was fifty five percent of people who 434 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:12,960 voted in Iowa. That went to Trump by fifty three or he won fifty 435 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:18,799 three percent of that demographic. DeSantis was at twenty seven percent of that demographic. 436 00:30:19,039 --> 00:30:22,680 People said that they decided, So if you were a Trump voter, 437 00:30:23,279 --> 00:30:27,559 you had decided before this and you decided before this month, that was sixty 438 00:30:27,599 --> 00:30:32,319 six percent of people. So sixty five percent of people said that they decided 439 00:30:32,319 --> 00:30:36,559 before the last month, when so much money went into the race. We're 440 00:30:36,559 --> 00:30:41,319 talking like that's a huge swath of voters had already decided before this month. 441 00:30:41,599 --> 00:30:47,240 If you decided within the last month, twenty five percent of those voters said 442 00:30:47,279 --> 00:30:51,200 Trump. They went for Trump, twenty nine percent said they went for DeSantis, 443 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,039 and thirty two percent went for Nikki Haley, and then Spencer. This 444 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,119 the last sort of two punch one two punch that I'm going to get to, 445 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,599 which one of these four issues mattered most in deciding whom to support today. 446 00:31:03,039 --> 00:31:07,160 So thirty eight percent of people said the economy, thirty four percent said 447 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:11,640 immigration, eleven percent said abortion, and twelve percent said foreign policy. If 448 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,400 you said the economy, which was the highest number of voters, fifty two 449 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,799 percent of those people went for Donald Trump. If you said immigration, sixty 450 00:31:19,839 --> 00:31:23,440 four percent of those voters went for Donald Trump. If you said abortion again, 451 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:29,240 that was just eleven percent. Actually, forty six percent went for Ron 452 00:31:29,279 --> 00:31:32,599 DeSantis and only twenty five percent for Trump and Haley. And then if he 453 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:37,960 said foreign policy, forty five percent went for Nikki Haley, only thirty six 454 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,720 percent for Donald Trump. But when you asked, when you were asked which 455 00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:45,160 one of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding who to support today? 456 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,359 If if you were one of the thirty two percent of voters who said, 457 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:55,079 quote, fights for people like me, eighty two percent of you went for 458 00:31:55,240 --> 00:32:00,880 Donald Trump. If you answered has the right temperament, sixty six percent of 459 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:05,759 you went for Nicky Haley. Only ten percent for Trump, fifteen percent for 460 00:32:05,839 --> 00:32:10,680 DeSantis. If you answered, can defeat Joe Biden, forty percent went for 461 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:15,359 Trump, only thirty three percent for Nicki Haley. And that's her central argument 462 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:20,799 that she made in what sounded like a victory speech last night. She said, 463 00:32:20,839 --> 00:32:24,359 Iowa, you just made this a two person race. Her campaign put 464 00:32:24,359 --> 00:32:30,160 out a memo this morning saying that it's a two percent race because only Haley 465 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:35,119 and Trump have a significant support, in substantial support in New Hampshire and South 466 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,839 Carolina, which is true, it is true, but Nikki Haley still trails 467 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:44,400 by double digits in both of the states that she is touting as her path 468 00:32:44,839 --> 00:32:47,599 going forward. Spencer, what do you make of those really interesting exit pole 469 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:52,440 results. Yeah, I think starting sort of with the tail end of the 470 00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:57,000 numbers first, I think you're right that Nicki Haley's argument has been because there 471 00:32:57,039 --> 00:32:59,960 have been polls, which again this gets back to are the polls accurate? 472 00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:04,079 There have been polls that show her performing best of all the Republicans in the 473 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:08,359 race against Joe Biden. But it's January of twenty twenty four. There is 474 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:13,160 a lot of time between now and the election day. Assuming it is Joe 475 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,799 Biden who's actually the Democrat on the ballot in November. But her whole point 476 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:22,720 has been you need to pick me because I do best against Biden. And 477 00:33:22,759 --> 00:33:24,039 that means and I think in a smart point for her based on what the 478 00:33:24,039 --> 00:33:29,200 polls show, which seemed to be contradicted now by Iowa Republicans and exit polls. 479 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,599 But she's right that if you if she is winning by double digits over 480 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,599 Joe Biden in November,