1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,320 On today's episode, we are diving deep into the aftermath of the second Starship 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:09,880 test flight. What happened, why, and what the future looks like for 3 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:15,599 the world's largest rocket. This is the space Race. On November eighteenth, 4 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:20,480 after two hundred and twelve days of repairs, tinkering, construction, investigation, 5 00:00:20,679 --> 00:00:26,120 and testing, SpaceX was ready to fly their Starship once again. It's safe 6 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:30,559 to say that the second test flight of the world's largest rocket was much more 7 00:00:30,559 --> 00:00:35,840 successful than its first, but the Saturday launch had both its astounding successes and 8 00:00:36,439 --> 00:00:41,359 disappointing setbacks. First, let's quickly go over the flight itself to give context 9 00:00:41,359 --> 00:00:45,119 to those who weren't able to catch it live. At around eight am Eastern 10 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,799 Standard Time on November eighteenth, the team at Starbas Boca Chica, Texas began 11 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:54,119 the fueling process. Everything went very smoothly here, with the team taking their 12 00:00:54,159 --> 00:00:58,759 planned hold at T minus forty seconds to double check that everything was good to 13 00:00:58,759 --> 00:01:03,640 go before continuing. At T minus five seconds, the deluge system kicked on, 14 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:07,560 shooting thousands of gallons of water in preparation for engine ignition, which happened 15 00:01:07,599 --> 00:01:11,719 a few seconds later. At T plus four seconds. We had liftoff, 16 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:17,799 Starship rose easily into the air, no strange drifting, no slow climb, 17 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:22,519 just a steady acceleration. As it left the pad. At T plus one 18 00:01:22,599 --> 00:01:27,079 minute twelve seconds, Starship was traveling so fast that it had already hit max 19 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:32,040 q, the point at which the vehicle was under the most amount of dynamic 20 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:37,120 pressure it would experience for the entire flight. At T plus two minutes forty 21 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:41,280 most booster engines begin to shut down. This was done slowly, not all 22 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,560 at once. You can see the engines shut down in small groups if you 23 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,719 watch carefully. At almost the same time, Starship's engines activated, using the 24 00:01:49,799 --> 00:01:53,359 flame diverter events at the top of Booster nine to perform a hot staging maneuver 25 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:59,760 and ease the two vehicles apart without losing momentum. At T plus two minutes 26 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,680 fifve d, the two stages are separate and Booster nine begins its flip for 27 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:07,719 the boost backburn maneuver that will take it back to the Gulf of Mexico, 28 00:02:07,159 --> 00:02:12,000 but it never gets there. The flip is good, the trajectory looks stable, 29 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,080 but several engines fail to light, and a small explosion is seen at 30 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:20,000 the rear of the booster. At T plus three minutes and twenty seconds, 31 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,159 the flight termination system on Booster nine is activated and it's blown to pieces. 32 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:29,240 Ship twenty five, meanwhile, is doing just fine and in fact is perfect 33 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,639 for almost five more minutes of flight. It isn't until puffs of vapor are 34 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:37,840 spotted at T plus eight minutes or so that something appears to go wrong and 35 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:42,759 we lose telemetry. It's later confirmed that the FTS was activated for Ship twenty 36 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,240 five around this time, and both vehicles are lost. However, with a 37 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:51,879 flight time almost double that of the previous test on April twentieth, and every 38 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:57,560 primary test objective completed smoothly, SpaceX staff and observers on the ground have cause 39 00:02:57,719 --> 00:03:01,520 for celebration, but every success could always be better in spaceflight, and so 40 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:06,840 while thinking ahead to the future, it's time we looked at the aftermath of 41 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:12,120 IFT two. Let's start with the biggest question on everyone's minds. How did 42 00:03:12,159 --> 00:03:15,800 the pad hold up? The short answer is very well. The longer answer 43 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:21,479 is that the launch pad and hardware were the absolute envps of this flight. 44 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,680 The condition of the Starbase pad was notorious in the aftermath of the Starship's first 45 00:03:25,719 --> 00:03:30,159 test flight back in April, without a flame diverter or really any sort of 46 00:03:30,199 --> 00:03:36,840 serious attempts to mitigate the massive overpressure and explosive power from the rocket's first stage. 47 00:03:37,039 --> 00:03:42,120 A gigantic crater was blown into the sand at Bocachica, very nearly obliterating 48 00:03:42,199 --> 00:03:46,919 the OLM and mangling vital parts of the launch tower and tank farm. This 49 00:03:46,039 --> 00:03:52,479 damage was a huge concern in the FAA mishap investigation, as chunks of debris 50 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:57,439 were flung huge distances from the launch site, forcing SpaceX to really hustle to 51 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:01,840 install their planned flame diverter system. The initial hull was filled in This new 52 00:04:01,919 --> 00:04:06,319 system was the now famous water cooled steel plate system, a reverse shower head 53 00:04:06,319 --> 00:04:12,280 that pumps thousands of gallons of water upwards and away from the underside of the 54 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,439 rocket. The idea was that the water would act to both cool the steel 55 00:04:15,439 --> 00:04:19,000 plates sitting just under the engines of the first stage booster, as well as 56 00:04:19,079 --> 00:04:24,839 contained some of the noise and pressure created by the initial liftoff thrust, and 57 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,920 it worked like a charm. As soon as that clock hit T minus five 58 00:04:28,959 --> 00:04:32,120 seconds and the deluge turned on, we immediately saw that things were going to 59 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:36,600 be different with this launch. Just like in the recent static fire tests, 60 00:04:36,879 --> 00:04:42,120 the water absorbed most of the power of the Raptor engine array and turned into 61 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:46,839 steam, giving us this great view of pulsating clouds of water vapor instead of 62 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:51,600 gritty dust clouds filled with dangerous chunks of flying concrete. The pad itself had 63 00:04:51,639 --> 00:04:56,879 technicians on it after only three hours of waiting, and less than a day 64 00:04:56,959 --> 00:05:00,040 later, Elon was standing on the thing, giving us a close picture of 65 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:06,079 the basically pristine site. Elon posted on x just inspected the Starship launch pad 66 00:05:06,319 --> 00:05:12,199 and it is in great condition. No refurbishment needed to the water cooled steel 67 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:16,600 plate for next launch, an astounding difference from April twentieth. Those engineers deserve 68 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:21,879 a standing ovation. That does not mean that there was no damage, however, 69 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:27,360 with clear shots of dangling cables from the chopsticks and a battered quick disconnect, 70 00:05:27,399 --> 00:05:30,920 proving that even a perfect launch can damage your hardware. But this isn't 71 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:36,240 anything that can't be fixed. Launches always damage some sort of the launch apparatus. 72 00:05:36,399 --> 00:05:41,639 It's a hazard of using explosions to push vehicles into space. Now, 73 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,399 for the flight itself, let's split this into the good things and the bad 74 00:05:45,439 --> 00:05:48,160 things. You're gonna want to stick around for both. First off, let's 75 00:05:48,199 --> 00:05:51,920 look at what went wrong here, because honestly, it's not a whole lot. 76 00:05:53,319 --> 00:05:57,279 Yes, there were two activations of the flight termination systems, but that 77 00:05:57,399 --> 00:06:00,680 in itself is actually a good part of this test. Which might sound weird, 78 00:06:00,759 --> 00:06:04,160 but I'll explain why in a second. During the liftoff phase, it 79 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:09,480 was noted that there were a couple of pieces of something flying around near the 80 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,240 base of the OLM. It looked a bit like a piece of corrugated metal, 81 00:06:13,439 --> 00:06:16,759 but it could have been anything. Obviously, anything not nailed down well 82 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,519 enough would have been thrown clear. So really this is an indicator that the 83 00:06:20,519 --> 00:06:25,360 site needs to be more thoroughly checked for this sort of material before a launch. 84 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,360 All of the other bad parts of this launch were more or less related 85 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:33,120 to the maneuvers that both parts of this rocket attempted just after stage separation. 86 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:39,319 First, the booster attempted its flip for the boost back burn. Honestly, 87 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:44,319 the flip itself looked great and everything seemed to align well, but something in 88 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,639 the rocket really didn't like that maneuver, and there was a small explosion at 89 00:06:47,639 --> 00:06:51,279 the engines when they tried to start back up. It's likely that the Booster 90 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:55,720 could have made the attempt to fly back to the Gulf of Mexico with just 91 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,000 a few of its engines, but too many engines failed to light, which 92 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,519 very likely caused an imbalance in the thrust. The Booster began to swiftly fly 93 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:08,279 off course and the FTS was activated out of caution, which was definitely the 94 00:07:08,399 --> 00:07:13,600 right call. Meanwhile, Starship itself was last seen accelerating in what looked like 95 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:19,240 a perfect trajectory. Everything was going very smoothly until suddenly it wasn't. Some 96 00:07:19,319 --> 00:07:24,920 puffs of air and the engines cut out suddenly, seconds before the SpaceX team 97 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:29,360 intended to do so. At first, this looked like a simple loss of 98 00:07:29,399 --> 00:07:32,720 telemetry that the ship was likely still gliding on its way to Hawaii, but 99 00:07:32,839 --> 00:07:39,360 unfortunately, it was confirmed that the FDS had been activated for Starship as well 100 00:07:39,879 --> 00:07:43,959 a time of reporting. It's still a little unclear as to if the FTS 101 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:49,000 activated automatically or if SpaceX manually flipped the switch, but there are a couple 102 00:07:49,079 --> 00:07:55,680 of likely causes. Some observers have reported that the Starship may have been slightly 103 00:07:55,720 --> 00:08:00,319 off course, which could have endangered a local population, or that the elds 104 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,480 on Chip twenty five hadn't held up, breaking the ship open and forcing the 105 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:09,319 fts to blow. Ship twenty five had been a very well used test article, 106 00:08:09,519 --> 00:08:13,519 and those welds had been an issue previously, along with the ship losing 107 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,560 heat tiles that had to be replaced right up until days before the launch. 108 00:08:18,079 --> 00:08:20,399 Whatever the reason, Ship twenty five did not break up cleanly, and it 109 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:26,360 was reported that the nose cone and flaps had survived the initial explosion. They 110 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,360 likely burned up on the way down, but that's still a potential hazard that 111 00:08:30,399 --> 00:08:35,519 the team will have to deal with in latership variants. But that was the 112 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,879 only bad part of this launch, so let's talk about the good stuff first 113 00:08:39,919 --> 00:08:43,360 and most important, everyone of the primary objectives for this flight were hit. 114 00:08:43,759 --> 00:08:48,559 Starship flew from the launchpad in a controlled manner without giving the boring company any 115 00:08:48,639 --> 00:08:54,200 ideas about new directions to take their drilling techniques. Then, not only did 116 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:58,919 the first stage booster maintain an optimal number of active engines during the ascent, 117 00:08:58,279 --> 00:09:03,440 but all thirty three engines in its array stayed active, gimbled, and shut 118 00:09:03,519 --> 00:09:09,399 down properly, an amazing feat, especially when you consider what happened in flight 119 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,039 test one, and it's likely down to the new electronic thrust vector control system 120 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:18,159 in Booster nine, as well as the upgrades to the engine bay plumbing to 121 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:22,759 stop any leaks from becoming fires. The ETV control system was also just generally 122 00:09:22,799 --> 00:09:28,559 responsible for the rocket's ability to very easily stay on its trajectory. For this 123 00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:33,679 flight, every gimbling engine operated perfectly, which was especially visible just after stage 124 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:39,559 separation, where the three gimbling center engines on Ship twenty five were seen snapping 125 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:43,639 quickly into place once Booster nine had moved away from the line of fire. 126 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:48,559 And speaking of separation, the hot staging maneuver that was added to this launch 127 00:09:48,639 --> 00:09:54,320 did exactly what it was intended to do. The smooth separation was the primary 128 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:58,840 goal of this flight, and it also marked the last flawless thing to work 129 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:03,200 in the whole exercise, so it was gratifying to see all that testing with 130 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:07,000 the avionics and the reorientation of some of the launch hardware to accommodate for the 131 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:11,360 new height of the rocket was worth it. So first and most obviously, 132 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:16,559 the FAA is going to have to do a mishap investigation. In fact, 133 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,480 they've already announced it. We can hear the booze and we get it, 134 00:10:20,519 --> 00:10:24,480 but this is literally their whole job. In fact, they don't have a 135 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,879 choice here. Once the FDS blue Booster nine to pieces, the FAA was 136 00:10:28,039 --> 00:10:33,200 obligated to complete an investigation. But the good news is that with no reported 137 00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:39,360 damage to property, environment or danger to people, this investigation should be much 138 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,240 quicker than the last one. And on top of that, there won't likely 139 00:10:43,279 --> 00:10:46,919 be any large changes to the mission hardware this time, and so an environmental 140 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:52,440 review from the Fisheries and Wildlife crew won't be necessary. However, this does 141 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:58,559 mean that another launch this year is just wildly unlikely to happen. Elon musk 142 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:03,480 All but firm this with a post on X where he says Starship Flight three 143 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,039 hardware should be ready to fly in three to four weeks. Honestly, it 144 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:11,120 probably wasn't likely to happen even if Starship had been able to hit both of 145 00:11:11,159 --> 00:11:15,600 its secondary goals. Either, there's just not a whole lot of time to 146 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:18,399 reconfigure the next pair of vehicles, plan a flight, and launch it before 147 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:22,320 the holidays, although it would have been cool to see SpaceX try for it. 148 00:11:22,879 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaking of what is likely to even happen for the next test flight. 149 00:11:28,399 --> 00:11:31,919 SpaceX is known for making small, incremental tests so that they can really focus 150 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,399 on problem areas as they come up, so it's a pretty good bet that 151 00:11:35,399 --> 00:11:41,639 the company will attempt to launch again with the exact same mission profile. Of 152 00:11:41,639 --> 00:11:45,840 course, the focus this time will likely be on nailing that boost back flip 153 00:11:45,879 --> 00:11:50,000 and the glide to Hawaii. They already proved they can launch their big rocket, 154 00:11:50,039 --> 00:11:52,799 and it really looked like it had the power to get to orbit, 155 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:56,639 so they need to prove those technical abilities before trying the next big phase. 156 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,960 With that comes the implication of more hardware testing. Ship twenty five and Starship 157 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:07,279 in general had been having a problem keeping its heat shield tiles on. One 158 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,840 or two falling off during launch isn't such a big deal, but those can 159 00:12:09,879 --> 00:12:16,159 add up. SpaceX needs to nail down a good adhesive and attachment procedure, 160 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:20,679 just like NASA did with the old shuttles. The next vehicles are likely to 161 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,519 be Ship twenty eight and Booster ten, with Ship twenty eight showcasing some big 162 00:12:24,639 --> 00:12:28,000 leaps in tech over Ship twenty five. Booster ten is a little more elusive, 163 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,879 but it's likely that the super heavy first stage will see more minor tweaks, 164 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,039 so it can navigate that flip better than Booster nine did. So when 165 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:41,480 is a more realistic timeframe for the next test launch. Obviously SpaceX is really 166 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:46,200 chomping at the bit to do another one. They have several test boosters and 167 00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:48,879 starships lined up for flights, but the odds of it happening in the winter 168 00:12:50,039 --> 00:12:54,519 are shaky. It is possible that a launch at the end of January or 169 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,240 sometime in February could happen. The FAA has been under pressure from the government 170 00:12:58,279 --> 00:13:03,000 to act faster, and SpaceX will waste exactly zero time in making the next 171 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:07,480 vehicle ready for flights. But at the very least, it's safe to say 172 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:11,360 that a flight in March would be almost a certainty if it hasn't happened before 173 00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:16,399 then. This also implies that Starship cannot complete enough test flights in time for 174 00:13:16,519 --> 00:13:20,399 a twenty twenty five Artmiss three mission. It's just too much work to get 175 00:13:20,399 --> 00:13:26,320 done in between mishap investigations and hardware reconfigurations. For NASA's part, they have 176 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:31,320 said that they want at least sixty test launches before they'll trust crew inside a 177 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:37,360 Starship which is more lenient than what SpaceX President and CEO g When Shotwell wants. 178 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,080 When discussing the Dear Moon Commercial Starship mission, which was due to launch 179 00:13:41,159 --> 00:13:46,559 in twenty twenty three originally and take a crew of artists on an orbital trek 180 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:50,000 around the Moon, Shotwell says that she wants at least one hundred launches before 181 00:13:50,039 --> 00:13:54,320 trusting the vehicle with an untrained crew. Like that fair enough, I suppose 182 00:13:54,360 --> 00:14:00,000 we've all seen the Simpsons. But even if SpaceX can really hustle and comple 183 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:05,000 all the testing targets NASA needs, that's the orbital test, the refueling test, 184 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,919 the Moon travel and landing tests, and all the hardware tests for the 185 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:13,600 human landing system variant of the Starship, it just doesn't seem possible that they 186 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,840 could get all of that done in two years. But with so much extra 187 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:22,919 room in the Artemis schedule, it definitely won't matter much. Artemis three can 188 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,480 be delayed for the little bit of extra time Starship is likely to need. 189 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,720 Just like with the Falcon Nins testing, Starship is only going to get more 190 00:14:30,799 --> 00:14:33,720 and more consistent with each flight. This next year alone should prove to be 191 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,240 some of the most exciting times for this new space race.