Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. Thanks for listening. This week, I'm talking about ten twenty twenty
three old predictions. It's that point of the offseason where we are in training
camp. The preseason is underway, well at least the Hall of Fame game
is complete, but we're also close to approaching the regular season in September.
Before I get to that, a few housekeeping notes first. If you want
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download it right to your phone. This week, I'm releasing my top fifty
five receivers on Patreon. Those are rookies and veterans combined into tiers in both
audio, spoken form and Excel. Spreadsheets attached to the episode available also our
quarterback and running back. Next week will be tight end and then actually at
top one hundred that's only available on Patreon. And lastly, if you want
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to get it scheduled. You can shoot me an email Dinasty do pod at
gmail dot com. So let's get right to it. Twenty twenty three Bold
predictions. These are in no specific order, and obviously they're not meant to
come true. These are hot, spicy takes that if they actually came true,
it would be league winning type upside that we're not necessarily expecting, but
it could come to fruition. Hence the bold prediction more or less to hope
you enjoy the ten topics or guesses, and then it helps you assess their
player value. For twenty twenty three, at number one, I have Tony
Pollard will lead all running backs in yards rushing. In twenty twenty two,
Pollard ranked sixteenth in yards rushing in one thousand seven yards among running backs.
So it's going to be quite the leap that this word to actually occur this
upcoming season. For some contexts, last year twenty had one hundred nine three
rushing attempts, so in order to compete for the rushing title, Pollard will
need to flirt with or exceed two hundred and fifty, if not two hudred
and seventy five rushing attempts to compete with other high volume running backs like Derrick
Henry, Nick Chubbs, Aquon Barkley, those who have better odds to finish
the year as the leading running back yard rusher. Now, assuming Dallas is
prepared to feature power in twenty twenty three, and it sounds like that is
the case, Kellen Moore OC has left, Mike McCarthy wants to run the
ball extensively more is now the OC with the Chargers instead, then Poward should
be on track for a career year. Across the board with minimal backfield depth
to contend with, you have Leek Davis sixth round rookie Duze Vaughan who's undersized,
and then Ronald Jones facing suspension. A reunion with Ezekiel Elliott cannot be
ruled out, but for now, his two hundred and thirty one carries from
twenty twenty two are up for redistribution. At the time of this recording,
Zeke has not signed with a team. There's always still the tea leaves that
indicate a reunion hometown discount with Dallas makes sense. Making no mistake though,
that twenty Poward is the Cowboys true RB one, and I think he's an
RB one in fants football for twenty twenty three as well. Number two.
Nick Chubb records at least fifty receptions. His annual catch totals to dates are
twenty thirty six, sixteen, twenty and twenty seven, so it would be
a major leap if it occurred with Cream Hunt out of Cleveland's backfield picture.
We're all expecting a huge Russian campaign out of Chubb. He's on historic dropper
carry average, run and start his career as well five point two, five
point zero, five point six, five point five, five point one to
create a truly unique blend of rushing and efficiency from the position. The question
is if Chubb sees increased usage as a receiver or a software running back room
forward is set to take on passing down duties. If Chubb truly is able
to carve out a fifty or more catch season, then there's a chance he
would finish as the RB one overall and Fantasy football. He turns twenty eight
in December, so it's a fine line between investing Chubb and dynasty for a
short term outlook before he hits twenty eight twenty nine. Eventually that cliff at
thirty. The good news is that he has one of these safest workloads among
all running backs in the NFL and Fantasy Football alike, and my bold prediction
of him hidding at least fifty receptions would really catapult him into elite RB one
territory. He's been uber effective based on his y Oberacarry averages as I already
described and alluded to. For twenty twenty three, it's a matter of can
Chubb take his game to new heights and in full PPR that would put him
in a rare conversation of top three to five running backs, but the receptions
are key. Number three Christian Kirk outscores Calvin Ridley in full PPR last season.
Kirk delivered an eighty four eleven O eight to eight log with one hundred
and thirty three targets and was the PPR Robbers eleven, so a back end
wide receiver one. I've spoken about Ridley recently as the assumed or projected wide
receiver one in Jacksonville. He also has a higher ad then Kirk top twenty
wide receiver for Ridley, and then just inside the top thirty right round twenty
five to thirty for the most part, in most Redraft data in Dynasty,
they're closer. However, this boat prediction is more Redraft oriented for the sake
of only twenty twenty three. Now, both wideouts should be able to coexist
with Trevor Lawrence, and based on price age, I prefer Kirk over Ridley
in Dynasty and Redraft. I understand the case for Ridley, but still think
he has a lot that needs to go right in order him to pan out
as advertising his current price tag. For some age comparison, Christian Kirk is
twenty seven in November, Ridley twenty nine December. So again, from a
Dynasty point of view, give me Kirk instead of Ridley nine times out of
ten, unless I really need that unlikely but possible wide receiver one ceiling of
Ridley to come true this upcoming season. Now, I will say that in
Dynasty you could probably get Christian Kirk plus for Ridley based on all the camphipe
or seeing day in day out. But the boat prediction is that Kirk outscores
really in PPR because most assume based on ADP and what it's telling us,
that Ridley will offer or value to fantasy players than Kirk This season, Number
four Jackson Smith and Jigbo will pass up Tyler Lockett as wide receiver two in
Seattle. We can measure that based on total point scored in full PPR.
Lockett has been a model of consistency for most of his Seahawks tenure. That
being said, he's entering his age thirty one season and we've seen him before,
We'll see it again. The wide receiver cliff is hard to forecast.
When it actually comes, it is a quick decline. Meanwhile, JSN has
been the talk of Seattle camp already. While I'm pressing daily with his Chris
Brott running a Jody after the catch, he looks to be gliding at the
catch point and waste no time turning up field. Elite change of direction skills
with accept of speed. All of these traits may JSN the twentieth overall picked
this year out of Ohiose States. Long term, there could be eventually a
conversation or debate of DK Metcalf vers JSN. For now, Metcalf remains the
assumed wide receiver one in Seattle, and this is a bowl take because Lockett
has shown no indications of slowing down after another notable twenty twenty two campaign eighty
four ten thirty three nine for twelve point three yards per catch, one hundred
and ten targets as one of the smartest route runners of all NFL wideouts,
excellent bodying troll field awareness. I just feel like the writings on the wall,
based on the coach speak out of Seattle and what we're seeing. Of
course it's practice, but give it time for the preseason or even scrimmages that
JSN will be a focal point and immediate contributor right out of the gates for
the Seahawks. Sure he might be limited to slot duties, but eventually you'd
think that Seattle gets creative moves around Lockett, Metcalf and JSN to sport arguably
the best wide receiver trio in the National Football League. And it's been discussed
before. I'll bring it up again. Even though JSN doesn't have the best
college resume or production profile. The one year he dominated was with the likes
of Crystal Lava Garrett Wilson on the field simultaneously. So the fact that JSN
can carve out that sort of role with other impact players bodes well for a
chance of doing so in Seattle with the likes if he came back Calf retire
Lockett. It's bold because I still think that Lockett has plenty of gas within
the tank. But if JSN does pass him up, this could represent that
being in the beginning of the twenty twenty three season and before it even starts,
the final window to acquire Jason and a reasonable rate and dynasty before he
is gets an alpha in the space and will cost you an arm in a
leg to acquire you have to mortgage to farm in your future to trade for
Jason before his price becomes unreasonable to matter of time until the talent lives up
to all the hype on the field. Number five, dj Moore sets career
best totals in yards, receiving, and touchdowns. I don't think dj Moore
will beat his career high in receptions. That's ninety three catches from twenty twenty
one However, yards receiving which stands at one thousand, one hundred ninety three
and touchdown seven are both achievable with Justin Fields as his quarterback. And he's
still somehow that BDG More only twenty six years old and he can bring his
game to new heights to twenty twenty three as a focal point of the Bears
aerial attach. In terms of overall outcomes, I think wide receiver one value
seems a bit optimistic or far affetched. All we need is for DJ deliver
on wide receiver two levels of production to set new high marks and receiving and
touchdowns. Make no mistake that DJ Moore will either succeed or fail based on
the development or lack thereof out of fields, but the Bears will offer more
one of the friendly ye fantasy environments we've seen for DJ since Cam Newton was
in his prime with Carolina Fields and more could be a fantastic value add in
twenty twenty three free draft or dynasty. Quite simply, if you've been a
truth or DJ Moore, now is the time to hopefully root the rewards and
for coverage sake, let's hope that Chase Claypool Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott Colcommet,
the Bears trio at running back of Herbert Foreman Roshan are all heavily involved
that DJ Moore can benefit from a standout campaign. It's time for a quick
break. I'll be back with five more Bull predictions for twenty twenty three.
At number six, it is Mike Evans extends history to ten consecutive seasons with
at least a thousand yards receiving. I don't think many people think it is
possible or will come true, but I'm still in on Evans. Tampa based
quarterback room is a downgrade for the entire offense from Tom Brady's either Baker Mayfield
or Kyle Trask, but there should be enough volume and opportunities to keep Evans
in a starting mix, whether it be a whid receiver with three or flex
in Fans football leagues. In twenty twenty two, Evans regors through at a
seventy seven eleven twenty four to six receiving efforts with one hundred and twenty seven
targets that ranked him as the PPR wide receiver seventeen, so a solid wide
receiver two in redrafted Dynasty Evans is largely being ignored compared to Chris Godwin.
There's a massive gap between them in ADP. It could be the h factor
or simply the mental fatigue of assuming a player like Evans is unable to repeat
at such a high level like he's done over the course of his pro career
nine straight a thousand yard receiving seasons is no easy feat. It's a Hall
of Fame caliber pace can't make a ten straight, I sure hope, So
I'm targeting Evans as all ob receiver three and all four match of his upcoming
campaign. He can even be rosters or widacly with four sometimes, which is
insane value compared to what he used to cost over the past few seasons or
in his prime with a few years of Jameis Winston and Tom eighty. And
I think Evans in general, if you're contender and dynasty is a terrific bylow
right now because nobody wants to keep and or be stuck with him as a
sunk cost might kick in with the assumed the preciating asset of age. Be
sure to capitalize now and make Evans a key piece of your short term future
to try and win it all. A championship title. In twenty twenty three,
Number seven, Gabe Davis finally breaks out with at least a thousand yards
receiving and ten touchdowns. Buffalo remains high on Gabe's talent and clearly believe he's
a nice compliment to Stefon Diggs. There's no denying that Diggs remains the alpha
wide out for the Bills. Davis simply has room to grow without any major
wide reciver upgrades being brought in over the offseason. I do think that Clearshakure
can make some noise and Dalton Cade is a mixture of a wide receiver and
tight end, but Gabe Davis is locked in his wide receiver too, at
least to begin twenty twenty three. Since being a fourth round pick at twenty
twenty, Davis has not surpassed forty eight receptions, eight hundred thirty six yards
receiving, or seven touchdowns in a single NFL season. He has, however,
managed to demonstrate his insistency as a big play threat with annual yopper catch
averages of seventeen point one, fifteen point seven, and seventeen point four.
What we need out of Gabe Davis is for the big play threats to be
sustained and trapolated over more receptions, more yardage and touchdowns, and Josh Allen
throwing in the football. There's no better mid round gem who could really crush
their current cost RADP than Gabe Davis alongside Stefon Diggs. So sign me up
for this being the year they gave Davis breaks out and if he does,
the ceiling is going to outweigh the risk of him being a bust. Number
eight, Elijah More paces CLEVELANDE receivers and all receiving categories. This one's really
spicy. Elijah has been a bright spot for the Browns just being traded from
the Jets. The former second round pick out of All miss was a great
prospect who simply fizzled out in New York due to usage complaints. His first
two receiving logs, they check in at forty three, five, thirty eight
five, seventy seven targets and last year with thirty seven four, forty six
and one with sixty five targets. It won't be easy unseen Amari Cooper or
make even a one A one B wide out situation in Cleveland. But if
all camp reports are true, then Elijah Moore is going to serve a prominent
role on offense as one of the Shawn Watson's top outlets in the passing game.
As a possible benchmark for what Elijah Moore has to achieve in twenty twenty
three to become the team's top receiving wide out in different categories. Keep in
mind that Cooper posted a seventy eight eleven, sixty and nine line during his
first year at the Browns in twenty twenty two. That was with one hundred
they would targets with some Jacob Burset mixed in and then eventually to Shaun Watson
over the end of last season. But now we have Deshaun Watson back full
off season as disposal to learn the offense under Kevin Safanski and hopefully return to
old Houston Texan form. And if that does actually take place, I think
Elijah Moore is going to benefit, if not Amark Cooper equally, making Elijah
Moore a major breakout candidate for twenty twenty three. Number nine devon Ah Chain
leads all running backs in yards per carry and or yards perqect. I'm heger
my bet there. I think it'll be one of the two category. Eight
Chain is best known for his speed and big playability at four point three two
forty yard dash. Third round pick out of Texas A and M Miami's head
coach Mike McDaniel couldn't contain his excitement post draft for guarding eight Chains fit for
the Dolphin's offense used him out wide to the eggs. With that speed,
takeover doesn't have to be the most volume for eight Chain to be a massive
hit in fantasy football. I do think that eh Chain could eventually become the
lead back of Miami's backfield, but for the sake of yarchs percarry yards pertect,
he doesn't need to be the workhorse leader in the clubhouse. We saw
top tier level of efficiency from eight Chain in twenty twenty two to the college
level, a one ninety six eleven oh two eight rushing line five points to
charge percarey, and his first two college season consisted of yar percary averages at
eight and a half on forty three rushes and seven one hundred and thirty rushes.
That is out of this world effectiveness. I'm not saying he's gonna average
eight and a half or seven yards per rush in the NFL. But in
order to compete for that top mark five five and a half six all the
pens in the volume, but signing up for eight chain at a late first
round price tag if not early second, and the future is bright for him
tied to Mike McDaniel and his creativity offensively in Miami and then number ten Jyllan
Warren catches more passes than Nagi Harris. Twenty twenty two was our first sample
size with Pittsburgh's backfield of Harris and Warren together. Harris went two seventy two
ten thirty four seven on the ground and forty one two twenty nine threes receiver
on fifty three targets. And keep in mind Nachi's bigger at six one two
forty two, Warren as a rookie seventy seven three seventy nine one on the
ground twenty eight grabs or two fourteen thirty three targets, and he's smaller five
eight two fifteen with some loose comparisons to Austin Eckler on tape. In order
to become that talented warreny to do a lot more to unseat someone like Naji.
I fully expect Harris to remain RB one for the Steelers. At the
same time, local Beat reporters have made it known that the team is very
high on Warren's abilities to contribute as both a rushier and receiver. After Nachi's
list frank injury last year that led him struggling with effectiveness, it wouldn't be
a surprise necessary to see his workload scale back at times in favor of Warren.
I think that will take place as a receiver more often than not.
Where Warren showed some juice as a rookie, and then even in twenty twenty
one in Oklahoma State he had twenty five receptions for twenty to twenty five yards
in Jalen's limit opportunities catching passes last year, he looked the parts with reliable
hands and average seven point six yards per reception. While Warren could push Nagie
for rushing volume as well, that seems less likely assuming Harris is healthy and
available, and in terms of their price discrepancy, Harris is far more expensive
than Warren. In redraft, I'm much sure they have Nagi, but in
dynasty between the two, it could make sense to select a different running back
in Nagi's range of ADP and then draft Warren a trade for Warren's a standalone
piece that could carve out more value as a flex or eventual RB two.
Because what we saw as a rookie was impressive. The issue was sample size
of data and overall touches rushing receiver combining was small. We need more out
of Warren to really measure what it could be at the NFL level. But
I think the Boat prediction is that catch more passes than Nagy as a change
of pace weapon in order to keep Naji fresh as a rusher, not just
a better rusher been receiver. He's volume driven, He's not all that efficient
yet Pittsburgh needs him healthy and available on early downs if they're going to be
a winning football team in twenty twenty three. Bab will do it for this
week's show. I hope you all enjoyed the twenty twenty three Bull predictions.
Here they are a quick recap. Number one twenty Poler will lead all running
backs and yards rushing. Number two, Nick Schub records at least fifty receptions.
Number three Christian Kirk outscores Calvin Ridley in full PPR. Number four JSAM
will pass up Tyler Lockett as wide receiver two in Seattle. We can measure
that based on total points score in PPR. Number five. DJ Moore sets
career best totals and yards receiving in touchdowns. Number six Mike Evans extends his
streak to ten consecutive seasons with at least a thousand yards receiving. Number seven
Gabe Davis finally breaks out with at least a thousand yards receiving and ten touchdowns.
Number eight. Elijah Moore paces Cleveland wide receivers and all receiving categories.
Number nine Devon H Jane leads all running backs and yards per carry and or
yards per catch, and number ten Jalen Warren catches more passes than Naki Harris.
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set your team up for success in twenty twenty three. Thanks again for listening.
Until next time. This is the Dynas dude checking out. See you are