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dot com slash Join. What is of Hardwar Knox Listeners, We are back,
this time without our fearless co host, Adam Promo. We are,
however, super excited as usual to be joined by frequent guest and a friend
of the podcast, Bleacher Reports, Grant Hughes. Follow him on Twitter at
GT Underscore Hughes. We're going to we're rebranding Factor Fiction, even though our
outline is basically buy or sell or factor fiction. This is truth or trash
on either things we believe hot, taky things maybe, or just things that
we've noticed that other people are saying. To have a discussion about it,
but it's it's truth or trash. Before we get started, though, the
most important question of the night, Grant, how are you doing. I'm
doing very well, thank you. And it's all content, Dan, it
doesn't matter what you call it. It's just it's just hashtag content, right.
But we need to we need to rebrand it to give the appearance of
it being fresh and new and unique. Let the let the takes be fresh'
you know whatever, I get it, I get it, we got it.
We gotta jazz it up. We're talking before we started though about you
know, you sent me yours like just before we started, and I realized
how much overlap we had, so I like quickly pivoted in some areas.
But as you mentioned, like at the top, it feels like the league
pecking order to me, or at least I mentioned, feels more disjointed than
normal. But as you were mentioning, it feels like very hard to avoid
groupthink at the moment as well. Yeah, because I mean I don't know
about how you approach this, but sort of I just kind of went through
some of the basic I don't know, you know, just sort by net
rating or look at teams records, or look at offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency
and sort of kind of say, well, which one of these things doesn't
belong? And you see Cleveland way up high in defensive efficiency or Atlanta way
up there in net rating, and say like, okay, well, based
on my priors or what I thought things would look like early in the year
or before the year, this is different. And I think there was so
much group think prior to the season that everybody's kind of arriving at the same
thing for the answer to which one of these doesn't belong? So I think
that's part of it. But but yeah, like another quality of this season
coming in was, you know, there were the Lakers and the Clippers,
and I guess the Bucks, you know, way up at the top I
think probably would have been the consensus. And there's like a dozen teams in
that second, Like I could imagine this team being in a conference final,
and I think that sort of you know, that's there are not a dozen
teams that can be in a conference final just scene that way, and so
kind of pulling those apart and organizing those is really hard, especially obviously this
early, when another thing we talked about was like one game or one big
night, like Luca had a triple double to night, and easily going into
this one of the buyer sells or factor fictions could have been, well,
Luca doesn't look right, and now it's like, okay, well one game
and now we're sort of back to our baselines line. So so yeah,
to your point, it's just kind of tough to to really separate things this
early. I'm gonna throw one at you really early and phrase it this way,
truth trash or talk to me later. The Phoenix Suns are three contender.
I mean, that has to be a talk to me later. But
but it's closer to truth than trash. I mean, and you know,
just put the numbers aside. I think looking at the makeup of the roster
going into this year, you would have said, like, what don't they
have, you know, And I think maybe backup point guard would have been
something to talk about whether that matters or not when you have Devin Booker that
could handle if if or you know, playmate if Chris Paul missed time.
But campaign looks really good. I don't know how much you've watched him,
but the bubble stuff when he proved last year that he was not kind of
a you know, overdrafted, that's all carried over. He's been really good.
So, I mean, they have length on the wings, they have
Aiden who seems content to be like a third option just picking pop guy or
pick and roll guy, and they have stars, so they're just like they
I don't know what their weakness is. So I mean, I guess I
think they're probably a realistic top four in the West team. I don't know
about top three contender, although like how different are those two things? Really?
Like maybe we were just kind of it's an issue of degree between us
as opposed to like a disagreement. Yeah, so I went with truth obviously
because some of these again I wasn't sure where I fell on them. I
just saw them being talked about. This was not one of them. This
is one I'm introducing. The way that they're playing feels like very playoff ready
we'll probably see more of Chris Paul and Devin Booker are playing together in the
postseason, which can probably only be a good thing, and they'll have just
more chemistry at that point. Right now, from the games i've watched it,
there is it does feel very my turn, your turn when they're on
the court. But when they're two of the most lethal off the dribble scores
in the league, that's mostly fine. The thing I think I'm mostly impressed
with it they're playing this is per impredictable at the league's slowest pace. That's
the I'm just going by average time of their possession. That's fine. When
you're looking at them having Chris Paul and Devin Booker and just being able to
dissect defenses that might help them in the postseason. I would kind of like
them to see, like to see a little bit more variance there though,
like when they have, you know, a Dario Sarge at the five for
those second string units, I'd like to see them play faster than we've seen
this season, just to give them that element of variance. Like I said,
and as you mentioned, I simultaneously look at their depth chart and I'm
like, yeah, they have everything, but You could also pick out ways
in which there might be holes, like come later on, where it's I'm
not as worried about backup point guard because Pain's been playing so well and Javon
Carter is gonna start shooting better. Backup five is maybe an issue like does
Dario Sarge get you buy there? In the playoffs, you don't want to
have to get to a point where Damian Jones or Frank Kamitzky actually matter in
your rotation there. And then even the not so much this, but the
secondary wing rotation could get weird because there's Cam Johnson and then there's who like
Jalen Smith, I guess as your backup four. We haven't seen abdel Nader
yet, at least I haven't. I believe he's still injured. Each one
more is fine, but that's also where you feel like confidence, like Langston
Galloway has been good for them in moments, and like they have him super
cheap, so they're they're I think deeper in the aggregate than they received it
for over the off season, and I feel like they're built to really be
in the playoffs. And the reason I settled on top three is you sort
of mentioned it if you're top three in the West, like you're kind of
in top three already, because who would you put peg as your top contenders
right now? I'm giving the Lakers the benefit of the doubt because it feels
like they're just sleepwalking their way to victories at this point, so they'll turn
it up. Do you put the Clippers there or the Sixers at number two?
I just feel like every single spot beneath the Lakers is suddenly up for
grabs, and you know, teams like the Bucks and even the Nuggets and
the Clippers like they haven't seized onto that territory like a lot of people thought
that they would. The Mavericks included too. Yeah, I think that's right.
I do think the Lakers get here's our first tangent. How many minutes
in are we? The Lakers thing made me think of something, which is
that I think a team like them, who I think still even even though
this is the case, it looks like the best team. I think a
lot of teams that sort of know who they are, that are fairly well
intact, and there's a lot of continuity from last year and are very good.
We'll treat and I'll have been treating this season like the last you know,
handful of games in a regular season where it's like, look, we
just need to once every week or so prove that we have our fastball and
then otherwise we're kind of like we're gonna get blown out by thirty to a
lottery team. Which that's another thing. The blowouts this year have been nuts.
But but I think we're going to see a lot of that because the
way this season is set up. You know, the Lakers are just gonna
coast and the Bucks are you know, all these teams and even maybe teams
that don't that don't have a right to or aren't good enough to do that,
like Denver comes to mind, to not really take every game seriously or
doing that. And so I think the Suns to me, don't fall into
that category because they they haven't proved anything, and they've got a lot of
guys that that, you know, this is a big season for them,
it's a big season for Booker, might be Paul's last good season. I
don't know. So I think that that really is more ammo for your for
your point of that being truth is that the Suns are not one of these
teams that have an established identity that can coast that can get blown out and
not care and act like it's not a big deal because we've done it.
So I think you know that you may end up being right on that for
I mean, among many reasons, but that one. What do you have
for me? Is truth or trash? Joel Embiide is a top I'm kind
of cheating on an article. It's going to come out that I did pretty
soon, but I'll just say, is a top three MVP candidate. Oh
and I'll give you you go ahead and give me your answer, and then
I'll give you my justification. I would probably go trash, just because I
wonder if he plays in enough games to make it to that level. Would
be just my primary justification against it. Does the absolute best justification against it.
And it's why this is probably a borderline hot take, but I'm going
with truth. I'm gonna have something coming out that he's gonna be my number
one MVP candidate, not a prediction, but of the whatever it is,
six seven, eight games that most teams have played so far, who if
the season ends a day and you gave the award out would be MVP.
And I think it's him. I just think that this mix of Sixers talent,
as everybody's thought before the season, works and their defense is the best
in the league. I watched most of the Sixers Hornets game tonight, which
was a blowout, and MB didn't even play the fourth quarter. But and
he didn't have a great statistical game, as like fourteen and eleven or something.
But it seems really clear to me that he's sort of shored up a
couple of the issues that held him back. Now. Conditioning and health are
the two that are the biggest ones. But he's a little bit harder to
double. Now. He doesn't just panic or you know, turn into two
guys. He's moving the ball and they have shooters. So that's going to
get them wins. And it's going to be directly because of him drawing extra
guys defensively, the Hornets like don't even look at the basket all night tonight
when he's in there. And so if his block numbers are low, and
this is the case already, the Sixers have an awesome rim defense in terms
of both frequency of upon an attempt and accuracy. Like he's just him being
there is kind of a Gobert effect. You don't try to shoot, and
if you do try to shoot, he's in your head enough that if he
doesn't block it, he affects the miss. He's scoring like crazy. He's
got all these like bullshit foul drawing tricks that are just on another level now.
So yeah, if he's it's it's kind of stupid to think that he's
gonna play enough games because he just sort of never has and he's always had
conditioning problems. But from what I've seen so far, I'm kind of ready
to buy or call it truth or just buy into him as an MVP,
you know, top top end MVP candidate. Also because guys like Lebron,
maybe even your honest, even though jannest is playing a ton of minutes relative
to what he's done in the past, I think are going to take take
it easy. The Sixers are another team like the Suns, who sort of,
like I mean, especially since they might blow it up if they disappoint,
like they haven't said, have to go for this. So if there's
gonna be a year where Ebid plays a lot and it's really effective, I
think this could potentially be it. Yeah, I think what I need to
see is that the Sixers, and I bought into them before the season,
so this would be me being wrong if this doesn't pan out. But like,
look at who they've beaten this year. Yeah, right, So it
does help his MVP case that the one loss that they have came in the
game that he sat out, Like that's a boon if it you know,
if he sits out like once every eight games and they just lose that game,
that's a that's a boon for his MVP stock. So I see a
path to him being there, But I feel like that's always been the case
where it's like, well, if he played enough, he could be right
there. Maybe in this season there's like a better way of doing it.
But I would also argue like the potential pitfalls of you know, if they
do make a trade for James Harden, which again, if they continue playing
like this, why would they Like that's gonna just throw him for a world
too, Like we're gonna probably see him impacted and they'll be the element of
James Harden cannibalizing some MVP votes there. There's just too many mind feel here
for me for me to call this the truth right now? Have you do
you have a like a I mean, it's too early for any of this,
But do you have like if you if you gun to your head,
who's your MVP prediction? Who's set up you know to to Because if it's
not embiid or if it's obviously those are there are a lot of good reasons
it wouldn't be in. But is it just Yannest again based on the simbers
he's gonna put up? So tat Tatum was my preseason pick. I could
see Trey Young being there right now, even though the Hawks offense is kind
of imploded in the fourth quarter. I my Tatum stock is like, I
don't think it's terrible, but it's it can't be him. If we were
to vote right now, I could see it maybe being EMBIID at that point.
I think you could probably also make a case for James Harden ironically,
as funny as that is, even though that he's only played four games though,
like it's seven games and the Rockets have only played four games themselves.
Though Trey Young is interesting, I like, he's gonna be on my honorable
mention when I read could probably get some love in that conversation too. He
looks good. It's just too bad Jason Tatum's the second best player on his
team. Now that should be another of our truth. They're trash? Is
Jalen Brown? For real? It is actually, let's do it. Let's
do it. I have truth, trash or talk to me later. Jalen
Brown is a top twenty five player. Oh, that's such a ridiculous number
of top twenty five. I'll say truth. I mean some of it.
Move it up. I'm ready. No, no, no, no,
I mean like that's that's a way. I don't I don't know what my
top twenty five are, but no, Yeah, the shooting is going to
regress, obviously. Would you like to know what he's shooting on pull up
twos? I would like to know. Seventy seven point four percent. That
seems sustainable to me, Dan, Yeah, he might go up to eighty.
I would think, yeah, No, he I do think just from
the from what I've seen he it isn't just hot shooting that's different. I
mean that's the main driver of the numbers obviously. But he's developing. It's
happened kind of incrementally, but he now is making passes that he couldn't have
made before, especially in transition. He's really Jared Weiss did a good write
up of this recently for The Athletic and they just there, there are passes
that he's won seeing that he didn't used to see, and he's got the
ability to make them with either hand on the move, where before, you
know, when he came into the league, I distinctly remember he was purely
a straight line driver who would just try to dunk over everybody. And he's
developed so much more craft and I think, as you know, as a
top twenty five guy like he, I mean, you could have made that
case he was up there last year potentially, but but yeah, I think
I think that's true. I think he's top twenty five. I've sort of
talked myself into it, even if I think we agree that the shooting on
pull up jumpers and twos in particular, like that's just you know, obviously
going to come way down. Yeah, the question for him would be,
well, the efficiency obviously, but he's always been, or at least the
past two seasons efficient in these like off the catch situations, and he can
be a threat in transition and even when he gets tunnel vision on his drives,
like he's someone on Boston who can at least put consistent pressure on the
rim relative the personnel they have. The question would be that what happens when
Kemba Walker comes back is how does the facilitation sustain? And I think we've
seen just looking at what's happening with his turnovers this year, is that because
he's trying to be more facilitator, he's making those mistakes. That's almost a
good thing. The Kemba Walker stuff, I think he can fit. His
offense will be fine. And the fact that you might have someone after losing
Gordon Hayward who could work off the dribble, like they'll just be plenty of
touches to go around would be my guests. And Boston desperately actually just needs
like some diversification there, But that would be the big question mark. What
I did find interesting is that they have not like increased his pick and roll
volume last year doubled from the season before. It's basically held steady since then,
and they've been efficient in those situations. But it leads back to it.
I kind of noticed it towards later of last season, and you see
it now. It's just like there's a better feel like from like it's not
even just in transition to me, But like in those set spots where he
has to make different choices where it's not just going to the rim, it's
making less complicated passes or deciding to take a different kind of shot, there
just seems to be a better feel there. And maybe that stuff is tougher
to quantify. But that guy top twenty five, Like maybe is that even
a cop out at this point, because I think he was when we did
the Bleacher Report rankings which you participated in top one hundred before the season.
I think he was at like thirty five or something. But only from thirty
five to twenty five is like a pretty substant stand of jump. Oh yeah,
because then you're talking legit all NBA consideration at like a possibly difficult position
to get it at. But I think he I thought about this watching himb
tonight too, and just like to what you were talking about, there's just
better feel And and then I went and looked at like mbats twenty six,
like we're just we just don't give these guys enough time, you know,
we want to make these judgments of like enough times. That's really well,
I would argue Andrew Willgins this at too much time, But like Brown's twenty
four and this is his fifth year like this. I just it's so striking
to me. It feels like he's been around forever. It feels like we've
decided what he is. Ands same with him be it's same with all these
guys that when you come into the league at nineteen and really maybe this is
just gonna be about James Wiseman and we think we know what you are.
It's not close, Like there's just it takes a half a decade really before
someone like like Brown, who obviously was talented, kind of gets closer to
the type of player he's gonna be. But maybe this is gonna be the
sloppiest segue ever. But I want to get to Pascal Siakam and the Raptors
now. And because Siakim was someone that we sort of I got suckered into
thinking like this growth trajectory was just limitless because he made such big leaves and
now he's just lost and the Raptors are. I think the Raptors the only
team with one win. Nobody has zero. I think they're the only one
win team right now because they just lost again tonight. Yeah, you are
correct. The Pistons are one six, and I was talking about NBA teams.
It's so, hey, Jeremy Grant is making us all look like fools,
is he though? Because maybe this is what happens when you give a
guy who should be a fifth option like second option duties. It's just like
so for me personally, maybe I haven't watched Jeremy Grant closely enough over the
past half decade, but I never saw the type of player that could put
the ball on the floor like he's been in truit And the fact that he's
doing it amid like less than ideal spacing too, is just because it took
forever for s feet to start hitting threes so and Jeremy Grant was still getting
buckets then, so I have been I still don't you know, if Detroit
eventually flips him or something. I don't know that I understand the logic of
him being there unless you're gonna move Blake Griffin soon. So that's still questionable
to me. But Jeremy Grant betting on himself, I called it a dumb
decision. I said, I was taking the money and stayed with a contender.
He's making someone like me look like a fool, So I'll see,
don't don't do this yet though, because you probably are still going to be
right. It's just it's just a handful of game. But you're right now
he's done much more. The whole thing was like he just wanted I assume
because the money was equal that Denver was offering. He just wanted a bigger
role. And everybody like Denver it was going to MPJ before it was going
exactly and everybody thought, well, he can't do that. But so far,
so good for him. But no, But so the Raptors, like
I have a sort of a blanket. I'm just in the bag for them.
I overrated them in the playoffs last year. I thought they were like
a fringe title threat. I was just I don't know what the point is
at which I would panic about them, because I think they're so well coached.
I just think they have a lot of I like Van Vleet, I
like Ogann and Obi maybe too much. I like Siakam, I love Kyle
Lowry, you love Chris Bouche, who's been closing games for them and it
looks really good. I just he's probably been like their fourth or fifth best
player, which is a problem because that's in front of Siakam at the moment.
Well, yeah, but they're one in five and Siakam has just been
in addition to getting you know, benched for disciplinary reasons, which is that's
a rough look. But yeah, so let's keep Parence Davis active. That's
the move. Sure, So I just uh, I don't know, I
just his truth are trash. The Raptors are going to struggle to make the
playoffs? Is because that is that where we are? Yeah, so,
because we looked like one of the worst teams in the league. So,
I my, this is one of the ones we overlapped on. But I
kept it was truth or trash. Pascal Siakam is plateaued or this is it's
time to panic. I called trash on that, and I'll call trash on
the playoffs thing. I ultimately think they're gonna be fine if they missed the
playoffs. I think it's because they steer out of it, like earlier where
it's O Kyle Lowry, they decided to make a move like that, I
would my gut right now says, I mean, they are more likely to
trade for James Harden than they are to trade Kyle Lowry and just become sellers.
That's just where my gut is right now. Some of this stuff is
a legitimate issue. Like their half court offense is going to be a problem
even if Pascal Siakam is Pascal Siakam from you know, let's say the first
part of last year. They're just not outside of transition. They're not going
to be able to put a ton of pressure on the rim, and that's
always been kind of an issue with them. Yeah, what's sort of encouraging
for me, And it's in part because Siakam has been so bad. I
feel like there are just elements where it's easy to improve or or get away
from this. Where it's he's shooting under forty percent on layups right now,
that's not going to stand. He's shooting under twenty six percent on above the
break threes, under twenty six percent on wide open threes, and just knowing
what we've seen in the past two seasons from him, it feels like that
number is going to progress to a higher. Mean, there are things that
he does legitimately have to change, like he does not look more comfortable dribbling
in traffic, and that's why teams feel like they're switching anyone they want on
him, but it's also like, you know, maybe he'll eventually stop just
spinning to the like going to the right and spinning all the time uselessly.
I have faith that maybe again the improvement trajectory that you and I bought into
maybe snorted a little bit that clearly doesn't exist, like he's probably was last
year, or you know, the early part of last year was that his
peak? Maybe, but we also have seen his efficiency decline. Is this
usage one up? I think it's okay to be concerned. I'm not at
panic yet because I think he's going to get better and I think this team
is going to be just fine. They still just have a lot of the
tools. Defensively, I will say I'd like to see them just lean into
the smaller lineups more, and I think we've seen that at least a little
bit more recently. But you know, we don't need to see or I'm
like, I don't need to see Pascal Siakam and Chris Bouche play at the
same time. Like I know that you're gonna have rebounding problems then, but
you're gonna have rebounding problems anyway, and so there's no reason that eighty eight
percent of Siakam's minute should be coming at the flour like throw them at the
five and just mismatch the hell out of the thing on offense. Would be
my were my gut feeling at the moment. Yeah, you know, I
tend to agree. I can't relinquish my like just unflinching faith in the Raptors
just because of this. But you say Siak's numbers have to get better,
and they do, because as I'm looking at it now, this is this
doesn't include tonight's game, but at his posis among big. His points per
shot attempt on cleaning glass is in the third percentile, and his usage right,
So there are worse guys, but there are none, I would suggest,
I suspect there are none that have a third percentage, third percentile points
per shot attempt and use his percentage in the eighty eight percentile. That is
a lot of bad offensive basketball. So, yes, they're going to get
better. Seaka will get better. But I do think you you touched on
that that incredible stretch went last year when early on when it seemed like,
oh this guy, I mean, there's just no ceiling. I don't know
if he's going to get back to that because that just see that, you
know, guys don't get better forever. I think at some point you're just
that you are where you are. And he is a kind of a late
starters. He's gonna be what is he's almost twenty seven, so you know,
like and through all this, like they've they're rebounding has been shitty,
and they're they're fouling a ton, and there's still seventh in points of loot
per possessions. Like the defense is there for this team already, and that's
with them like kind of you know, Pascal Siakam not playing a game or
him not he fouled out I think twice already this season. It's like that's
with those issues being baked in there too. Yeah, I think too that
one of those we didn't even talk about this. Their shot profile is bonkers.
They're taking a ton of threes their second I think in three point at
tenth frequency they were first and maybe this is including last night's numbers. Two
So their effective field goal percentages twenty sixth in the league based on their shot
locations. If they shot those at an at league average rate, they'd be
nine. So bad luck throwing bad luck too. So on top of all
that other stuff, the Raptors ain't dead. Don't bury him, truth,
trash or talk to me later. One of Dallas or Denver is going to
implode this season in the sense that their floor, one of their floors,
is going to be exponentially lower than we thought. I'm gonna say trash.
And that's tough because Denver has been so bad defensively, and and I don't
know what the fix is, and but they're just they just they're a team.
I throw them in this group. And again, I don't know that
they deserve to feel this way, because I think in hindsight, their run,
their playoff run, was lucky. They you know, I mean,
you drop down three to one twice, that doesn't happen necesarily by accident.
Yeah, right, But they they've sort of been on And what's weird is
Yokich usually starts like someone who just like hit the snooze bar on the season,
and he's been awesome at least offensively and in terms of a statistical direction,
but defensively, they're not there. You know, this has to be
driving Michael and nuts because all he's ever wanted is to have a defense first
team, and that like Denver was never going to be that team. But
they're really not now. And like they've had, they've had bouts of this
before. There's with actually a lot of the same roster now that I think
of it, where they'll have these stretches where they just you know, they're
in the bottom five defensively doing powerings. For all those years, it was
constantly just well, if Denver could get it together defensively, they're a top
six team or whatever, you know, but they and then they would they
play great defense for a little while. This feels a little different. I
think Implode is too strong. I just think they know who they are.
They're another one of those teams to get back to that idea that I think
they believe in their fastball and just collectively they had a deep playoff run.
They're probably about as wiped as any team that didn't make it to the finals,
considering the stress of what they went through. So I'm not ready to
give in on that. And then for Dallas, I just believe in Luca
too much, even if he looks a little heavy and until tonight had not
played well at all the three point shooting with him is just weird. I
don't understand. I guess he takes too many tough ones, but it's been
awful all year, and even in his good game to ninety was three or
ten. I just think there's Dallas is too well coached. They're gonna get
Porzingis back. That's gonna help. I like that. The makeup of the
team. I think Josh Richardson makes sense. I think, you know,
Maxi Kleiba has constantly been underrated, So I think I think both of those
teams having like implode potential is trash, but neither of them has done anything
to sort of prove they belong anywhere close to, you know, serious contender
status. So I think a lot of people thought both of them, one
or both of them might be up there. Yeah, I think. And
we ended up not doing a predictions product ever this, But when I was
looking through my sheet of predictions I had, I ended up picking Dallas as
a team that I thought was going to be lower. I think I had
them seventh in the West or something, and everyone definitely had them like near
consensus top three or four, calling truth on it. I just don't have
a pick as to which one. I kind of feel like it might be
Denver. Their bench has been so like not great. It feels like they
have to go back to their main guys too soon because they're not getting enough
minutes out of their bench. Gary Harris is just I've guessed. I'm convinced
that he's just never going to be the same oh of twelve on above the
break threes as we're recording this five of thirty on all jumpers, and so
I put you at such a disadvantage because you do need his defense. I
just don't know where their defensive improvement comes from. And yeah, there are
things that are going to normalize in their favor or right now, teams are
just hitting a godly amount of three point attempts against them forty point four percent.
That's not going to hold. And they're also shooting. Opponents are shooting
seventy four point one percent at the rim right now, which is the second
to worst marked in the league, so allowed by a defense. So I
guess they'll be like natural improvement there. But it's like if I told you
that six came into the season, you would have you know, Murray Yokich,
Michael Porter Junior, and Paul millsapp all taking at least two point five
three point attempts per game and hitting at least forty two percent of them or
above forty percent of them, and Denver was two and four, Like,
how would you feel about that? And I know they didn't have Murray for
a game, and I think Michael Porter Junior has been absent for two games
if not mistaken, so you have to consider that too. With Dallas,
I just think we've undersold how little shot creation they have aside from Luca.
That was a clear issue over the offseason, and if anything, they got
worse in that area. I think going from Seth Curry to Josh Richardson,
who sort of showed flashes of that in Miami, but it definitely he didn't
really have a chance to do it in Philly and he's not shooting a great
clip from the field right now. And you've also just you know, kind
of sold on shooting because Richardson is let's say, a league average guy,
even though he's at like thirty three point three percent this season. Seth Curry
is volcanic and so like that that's a huge difference, and that, to
me like ends up really hurting them because even when Prezincis comes back like,
that's not he's not the guy to do that, Like he's not going to
face up and create these looks from scratch. You don't want him in the
post. And then there's just the question of how healthy will Prezingas be,
what does he look like when he comes back, and how does this team
play with him. I think Luca Dontrich is the one that's going to be
fine, but when you look at all these other guys on the team that
are kind of just you know, bricking threes has probably been Dallas's biggest issue
right now. Luke has been a part of that. But can you guarantee
that Tim Hardaway Junior is going to shoot above thirty five percent from three this
year? Like he's had seasons where he's not good at that. Richardson same
thirty three point three percent, Jalen Brunson thirty three point three percent, probably
closer to his career average than not. Dorian Finny Smith twenty six point seven
percent. Yeah, that'll go up, But if you need Dorring Finny Smith
to take five or six three point attempts per game, there's some high variants
there. So I think I might go picking I might actually pick Dallas as
the team that has the lower floor here and that might end up plumbing it,
so I would I would look at it different, I don't think so.
I don't think you picking them seventh before the season was outrageous just because
I think like the two three certainly, but maybe even two through seven in
the West is like could be separated by three games or two games or something.
But I do think that Dallas does have a cap on it, and
you hit on the reason is that as as I think Luca is a full
extreme floor raiser, Like I just think if if you can get thirty five
minutes a game from Luca, you're going to score and you're gonna win more
often than not. But this, you know, they just last year,
their their clutch performance was the worst in the league. And if you're having
an historically good offense, which right life and I think that that is direct.
We always discount clutch like as it's it's inherently small sample. It almost
never carries over year to year. But when you're built like they are,
which is, if you're going to score on offense, it will it will
be because of Luca and no one else will get anything going and at the
end of games, after he's tired from doing that throughout the game, and
every halfway decent coach is saying, well, all we all we need to
do is make sure he doesn't get off and they can't score. Like that
just sort of adds up. And maybe that's just sort of conveniently like you
know, aligning assumptions. But that to me is why I don't think Dallas
ever had like a even like a fringey or legit contender status. As they're
composed, they're my number one Kyle Lowry team. I want Kyle Lowry on
Dallas, not just for this year, but like just keep him around.
Hope he has some late thirties magic and then he can just be that guy
that will make big shots and make cool stuff happen at the end of game,
so Luca doesn't. But I mean, I don't know, maybe if
the Raptors do actually stay terrible, that's the destination and Dallas just doesn't care
about it's cap space that it's saved. Yeah, and if you can't get
Kyle Lowry, George Hill might be a name for them to look at.
That would be someone who's like, so, yeah, if that's a good
point about Dallas, the fact I never viewed them. Maybe I'm looking at
how other people were viewing them and like measuring them from that, because I
didn't consider them that like that bona fide contender. It felt like they were
one player short, and even if it's a prize like someone who I feel
like shapes the NBA discourse in Zach Low where he I think he said a
week or two ago that they're less than a flier away, and that's like,
I just fundamentally don't see it, and I don't necessarily know what it
is about them. I guess what's encouraging there's They've been about league average and
both offensive and defensive efficiency this year all said and done, Like, yeah,
that's what they've been, So they clearly have a higher ceiling than that.
Do you have another one for us? Let's go to I'm sure your
listenership is just going to be just on the edge of their seats over this
one. But the Calves are off to a relatively hot star, certainly as
measured against what was expected of them. They did get smoked tonight, I
think, or no, what happened tonight not important. They lost to the
Sixers, your MVP candidate and Joy No, no, that was Charlotte though,
oh than never mind. But they did lose to They lost by twenty
to the Magic. They scored eighty three points. It's actually it's a lot
worse. That's not good. So, but that only puts them down to
four and threes, so which that's significantly better. Anyway, truth are trash.
The Calves are a serious playing game threat in the East. I would
call it trash. It feels like the level of shot making from Darius Garland
specifically might be unsustand I'm aboard the Colin Sexton bandwagon. I am there are
tell me, I think he's I think you have to look at him as
a two guard or a combo guard, and once you do, he becomes
a really good player. His passing this year, if you look at his
assist rate, that's absolutely stellar for someone who is a two guard, and
he's I feel like he's making better decisions, like more meaningful passes. I'll
say, when he's attacking the basket. The shooting has been there now for
a while, and so I don't know if he's ever going to be like
this super reliable and efficient off the dribble jump shooter, like he can work
off the ball and he's just so bankable from there. Darius Garland, a
lot of Calves fans think that he is the higher ceiling of the two,
and they're probably righteous because of what he could do as a passer. But
his level of shot making inside the arc, specifically the outside shooting, really
isn't a surprise to me because he showed flashes of that last year. But
the finishing inside the arc this year has just been absolutely mind melting and I
would question whether that continues. I feel like the DeAndre DeAndre Jordan Andre Drummond
experience is going to sour at some point. He's been mostly good for them
this season. They don't have Kevin Love right now while he's doing with a
calfish you and so if he comes back, like what does that do to
a defense that's actually raided pretty favorably this year. So and they also just
have like these Isaaco Corol's not playing right now, and so with a rookie
there, Yeah, he looked good, but there are going to be some
mistakes. Maybe makes them better if Dylan if and when Dylan Windler comes back
to factor that in U. There also looks like Dante Xa might make some
time now, So their roster just feels like it's all over the place.
And I think the two players most responsible for their success or Sexton in Garland,
which I guess is encouraging because those are probably the two closest plus a
Coro like the long term pieces you have on your team. I just don't
view their shot making and again Garland specifically as sustainable, and I think we're
bound to see some defensive regression from them. Before that game against the Magic
they were I think like top ten defensively still or had they dropped from even
there because they were top ten a couple of days they were. They were
second in defensive efficiency before that Magic games. Like that's just I don't see
that type of defensive ceiling with the team. The opponents aren't shooting well,
there's got to be some sort of luck there. They're the best team in
the world that forcing turnovers and they're not failing. That doesn't make any sense
in the world. I don't think that holds. And they've had issues rebounding
the ball defensively, which I'm sure a lot of that has probably come like
during non Drummond minutes, but at the same time, like, I don't
know, and then I do think I don't know that they'll lean out of
it because the kids, again i'll say, are most responsible for their success.
But I don't expect Andre Drummond to finish the season in Cleveland. And
then even if he does, I just feel like once they're at full strength,
there's gonna be minutes flying everywhere, and you do have to look at
some less established guys Likechael Carrol and Windler that to be a play in threat.
I know it's the East, but even in that context, you're saying
they're going to be better than of like three or four of the Bulls,
the Hornets, the Wizards, the Pistons. I guess when your name most
teams, it doesn't seem like that ridiculous. It's a super little bar.
But if you expect the Raptors to rebound, it gets really difficult because then,
oh, yeah, like the Knicks are still pretty frisky right now,
so they have to be better than the Knicks, the Pistons, the Wizards.
That's three, the Hornets, the Bulls. That those are the five
teams that you basically have to You have to be better than four of them.
I guess maybe that's realistic. I don't know. Yeah, here it's
trash to me, but and it's all I do think it's true that they've
gotten some promising performances from the guys that like actually really could matter for them
long term, Garland and Sexton and being the two main ones. Larry Nance
is another guy that we should probably mention, who's who's just just does everything,
like just the actual good body. You could throw Ben Simmons on defense
and be like, hey, this this isn't a bad decision. Good passer,
really active, good athletes, like, yeah, he's he needs to
be on a good team. But so the defense. This is three games
played Sunday. We're recording this Monday night, so this will not include the
loss tonight. But yeah, so this will look better. Although actually they
only gave up one on three, But so they had through Sunday had allowed
and affective field goal percentage of fifty two point three, which was ten.
That's good, but again kind of the same stat I gave earlier. If
opponents shot league average based on where the Calves are giving up their shots,
which have been a lot of threes, A lot of stuff at the rim
that affected field goal percentage would be fifty five point four, which we are
rank twenty nine, right, so they've been incredibly lucky on opponent shooting.
The other thing, this turnover thing is is unbelievable. Kevin Pelton wrote something
on it yesterday or today, and basically I'll just read it because like I
can't ever have presumed to have come up with a stat on my own.
So no team since the ABA NBA merger has increased its turnover rate as much
from one season to the next as the Cavaliers have, thus far from eleven
point seven percent of opponent plays resulting and turnovers to seventeen point seven, making
it unlikely to continue. Very classic Kevin Pelton undersell last season's bull Bulls,
who you may remember as Jim Boylan's like lunatic squad of like attack animals,
pulled off the biggest one prior to that, which was a four point four
percentage increase. The Calvas are at six, so they were they are on
pace to have increased their turnover turnovers forces percentage by historic margins, and like
you said, they're not fouling. To me, this feels like just a
total marrage. I think some of it's stylistic, and you have young,
aggressive guards and nance can move and Drummond has actually good hands, Like that's
you know, for all of his sort of empty numbers if people like to
point out he actually does have good hands, he does create steals. There's
just no way this continues, and then when that defense falls off. They
scored eighty three points against the Magic tonight, so that like, yeah,
the bar is really low for them to be in the play scenario. But
I just the numbers are kind of like it's hard for me to get there
looking at how much regression seems to very obviously be ahead of them. Yeah,
that would be my guest. But going through those teams in the East,
it's like, I hate the Bulls this season. I've just I've not
enjoyed them at all, and I think they're the team I've watched the least
of just full stop. So maybe that's just uninformed analysis. They're on the
Bulls, But when you go through the list of teams, it's like,
well, you know, maybe because the Pistons are like they're not they're bad,
but they're like promising bad where it's like, oh, Grant is having
good moments, and Killian Hayes is doing some good things, and Sadeke Bay
and Isaiah Stewart. But they'll probably be better than the Pistons. They'll probably
be better than the Bulls. I get this would bring my next one though,
if they're going to be better than the Knicks, truth or trash.
The Knicks are actually a nuisance in the East. Let's just use the same
logic as the Calves. They're playing threat. Well, I mean, I
think a lot of it comes they have. I don't have the numbers in
front of you. I'll look them up when when you start going. But
like they, I think have had the luckiest you know, opponents shooting luck
in terms of they've given up a bunch of threes wide open threes. Maybe
you have this stat, Yeah, they and only they have given up more
wide open threes as a higher share of their opponent shots the Knicks's opponents are
shooting. This does not include their win over the Hawks, and I actually
watching the fourth quarter from Atlanta. This stat is probably gonna tilt even more
in the Knicks's favor. Opponents are shooting thirty point three percent on wide open
threes. Against New York. I mean, maybe they're doing maybe they've figured
something out, like whatever whatever it is you can do to make opponents misopen
shots. Maybe they're like pumping something weird into the but no, like they
I think the best argument for this being truth or at least you know,
talk to me later, is that they do play now under Thibodeaux, as
you ever we should have expected. They play like an more organized brand of
basketball with like a little bit of purpose, and even though the pieces still
fit and fit weirdly with a bunch of guys that you know, they start
guys Julius Randall, Mitchell Robinson together. I just don't know how you get
the shooting from that. And Alfred Peyton is not someone that I think defenses
really care about. When you put Frank in the game, same you know,
they have a lot of whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. Frank Nilkeen
is shooting above forty percent from three since January twenty fifth. He's also injured.
Right now, when you're not speaking with Frank Hilkeen on this podcast,
I saw you went four for four or the other night there or something like
that. Anyway, let's let's make him a talk to me later, just
as in general proposition. But I think the Knicks, like, what's what's
the specific question? Are they a nuisance in the east or just use the
same logic as the Calves. Are they a playing threat? Truth or trash?
Maybe it should just be let's put a finer point on it. Are
they gonna Are they more of a playing threat than the Calves? That's so
tough here, I'm gonna say, I'm gonna say no. And it's only
because of the shooting luck. I just we get suckered into this every year
in one direction or the other, with several teams that get out to incredible
starts of terrible starts, and it really at the end when you look back
at it was just they got lucky. And it's not always three point shooting.
Sometimes it's free throw shooting. Like you know, a team will just
randomly have an opponent three throw percentage of like sixty five percent for it,
just for no reason, and that wins them a couple of games or makes
their defensive rating look better. The shooting luck thing for the Knicks is it's
just it's too glaring of an anomaly to me to really be confident. And
even if I do think Thibodeau gives them if he doesn't break, him gives
them something to sort of, I don't know, ground them. So I
was pretty comfortably trash here with this, and I've enjoyed watching them. Maybe
they'll be fun bad. It's you know, the it's a roller coaster when
you look at RJ. Barrett's jump shot and to the lineup, Tips is
running, but Mammanuel quickly looks like he's an actual NBA player, and they
close with him for the most part in the win over Atlanta. But I
don't like the defensive shot profile, and it's still reeks of like TIBs not
updating his defensive system, and they are. They're allowing more looks at the
rim than any other team in the league. And they're twenty seventh an opponent
three point attempt, right and so when you have your opponent and right now
they have the best three point defense and our top eight in rim defense,
like both of those are not holding for the year. It's just not happening.
And the other thing is they're twenty seventh in offensive efficiency, and that's
while shooting unsustainably high for them from three, and we've already seen like they
come down from Barrett and then even Randall over his past few games. I
think he was five from three or something like that in the win over the
Hawks. They don't have enough shooters to make this work long term, and
I think that we're starting to see it. There was, you know,
some lineups against the Hawks where they had block quickly and rivers on the floor
at the same time. It's like, all right, you know, there's
some sense there. But because you want to play Julius Randall so much,
and because you can't play him at the five without allowing even more of a
parade towards the basket, you're always going to have Noel or Mitchell Robinson on
the court with him. So those are two non shooters. Barrett makes a
third just because defenses don't care about him, and he's hit some pull ups
this year inside the arc, so maybe they're still hope for him. But
now you're effectively you're most used lineups. You're still limiting yourself to maybe two
above average shooters, and that becomes a real that just becomes a real problem
for them. So I don't expect all this to hold, and I would
also think that even if it does, we're gonna get to a point where,
once Alex Burks is healthy, if he and Julius Randall are still playing
like this, and even Austin Rivers, who's been big from them from downtown,
like not all those guys are going to finish the season in New York
like they're the team because of the players that are really have been a boon
for them. I think when you're looking at the kiddies, it's Barrett has
had his moments, like he's had some up and downs, but he's impacted
the game in good ways. I've seen good things from Mitchell Robinson at points
made a bunch of good defensive plays against the Hawks, and the foul problem
is still a thing, but there he can at least go our games now
where it feels like it's okay and then Emmanuel quickly, but like everything else
is just like oh, Alec Burks was playing so well before, Randall's playing
out of his mind. Now you're getting great minutes from Austin Rivers since he's
returned. These are guys that don't factor into the big picture. And I
would think based on what the Knicks did over the off season, they will
start moving some of them. And I would advocate strongly, if Julius Rynold's
going to play like this, move him now while you can, because I
think here's a team out there that I'll look in and be like, oh,
he's averaging twenty two eleven and seven assists, and he's turning the ball
over a lot, but he's still shooting over fifty percent on twos and forty
percent from three. I would move him now. And so that's a big
part of why it's trash too. But I do think what they've done now,
while it's fun, I think it's unsustainable. Yeah, we should talk
about the team that they beat tonight, which is the Atlanta Hawks, which
I think you know, so the Hawks fell to four and three, but
if you pull it up, they're sixth in the league and net rating.
Still despite that loss, they're third in offense. They're not good defense,
but not terrible. They're eighteenth, which is kind of you know, the
difference between fifteen and twenty is kind of negligible so far. So I'm trying
to put a finer point on this because it's not like, you know,
the question, are they a surefire top eight team? I think it's The
answer is probably yes. But just looking at some of the good East teams,
theoretically good East teams that have stumbled, let's put it at truth or
trash or talk to me later. The Atlanta Hawks are a top six team
in the West, and keep in mind the East in the East, yeah
no, so they're going to realign conferences this year and then the Hawks but
no. So that means if they're top six, they are better than somebody
from the following group, which, as I'm doing this is gonna be a
tough sell. Milwaukee, Philadelphia. I'm just going down by net rating so
far in order Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Indiana, Brooklyn, Boston, and then
you've still got Miami and then Toronto way down there. So they got to
be better than somebody from that group this season to be a top six team
in the East. Right now. They are and a lot of that is
based on their offense is awesome, which I think is one hundred percent legit.
The question will be defensively, is where are you truth? Trash?
Talk to me later. Hawks are a top six team. I have to
heade here was talk to me later, because I want to call truth.
But when you phrase it like that from the group, it's so tough.
What I do think BOE's well for them is like they haven't even been close
to full strength this year yet, Like Chris Doohn's injured, Gallo has been
banged up, Christ Cappela is still working his way into shape. Rondo's only
played in two games, I believe, and they've gotten good play from their
younger wings. It's almost just like they have too many decisions to make.
I'm not just it's like a minute by minute basis the amount of decisions they
have to make. It's like, oh, what do we close with?
How do we run these lineups? Are we ever does Gallo play some three
when he comes back? Will they ever share the court with John Collins?
Does him and John Collins the four and five work? Are we closing games
with Capella at the five? And then if we, does that mean that
Collins or Gallo one of them has to be on the bench. Can we
close a game with Collins at the five? And are we you know,
when Chris Dunn comes back, like do him and Rondo played together? Is
he defending wings? Which one of our young wings is closing games? DeAndre
Hunter probably gives us more optionality defensively, but cam Reddish has been I feel
like buying large just better defensively for him, particularly against smaller players. They
make me nervous just because they have so in a good way, but it's
almost like too much of a good thing, and it feels like they need
to consolidate this a little bit in favor of some defensive talent. I don't
know if I'm not advocating for John Collins trade in that through like through that
lens, but that feels like what they need to do they so I agree.
I think with their numbers are this is a testament to out early is
their number They're five man unit numbers going into sight were wild, like you
would assume that. You know, Capella has long been thought to be sort
of the key to them playing passable defense because he would defend him, but
their numbers with him at center stuck, and when John Collins has played the
five, their defense has been really really good. So obviously it's just been
that's just been luck because Collins can't guard anything. But I think you hit
on the potential for why this could be truth. I'm I'm gonna talk to
me later too. Because if if you said seven or eight, then sure,
but six is like, are they gonna really be better than Toronto,
Boston like Miami? I just it's tough to get there. But they have
so many pieces that if they wanted to go out and trade for a star,
like what could you get with Collins and like a cong we didn't even
talk about him. He hasn't really he hasn't played, but I don't know,
pick Reddish or Hunter and and find some salary ballast to throw in there,
like they don't need Bradley Beal. But like if you just are if
the Wizards want a bunch of young guys that are cheap, like, sure
that you could do that. Now, Bill doesn't address the defense or really
almost none of the you know, the typical guys that we spent the off
season talking trade block about really do. But if you're if if this is
going to be truth, I think one pathway to get there is they do
like you say, is consolidate and just trade like three of these young guys
in a pick or something and they just get another start so you know,
or another figure out who what kind of defensive piece you could throw in there
on the wing to just fix everything because they got a lot of guys and
you know, it's almost like a blessing that they all haven't been healthy,
which is weird to say, because they're just aren't going to be a lot
of minutes and somebody's gonna get pissed off and there that could be a whole
other problem. But they're really kind of ripe to do something wild. I
think potentially it's just when you look at like who could potentially be available,
who's going to help them defensively? Even thought like what if they just decided
to move on from Gallo or Bogdanovitch at midseason and use that as balist parrot
with a youngster and like go after somebody you know, like at all.
Adipo would make sense for them if they're if you don't have to give up
too much and they're willing to pay him. I thought about Aaron Gordon for
this team, but then that's still he could defend wing spots, but he's
still redundant if you have Collins in there too, Like, how do you
balance that? It's still an issue. They have so many options. I
guess it isn't for the regular season. It's definitely not a bad thing because
as we've seen, like not only the injuries, but whatever happens with COVID
protocols. Like that's how this season needs to be viewed too, is that
you need the extra available bodies. But when it comes to crunch time,
like we've kind of seen it, like they have all these different options to
make, and with the way that they've kind of played in the fourth quarter
of the past couple of games, maybe those are also underlying issues they need
to look at. It's also hard to make that call though, before they've
seen their rotation at full strength, Like you just even forget about ol Kongwu.
Just not having like Gallo and Chris Dunne available at the same time as
Rondo and Badanovitch along with them like everyone else, it just makes it hard
to like how do you build your rotation or judge like they still had to
play a bunch of Solomon Hill and Brandon Goodwin for this team. Yeah.
Yeah. The other thing with them too is I honestly think, like having
just said there seemed to be ways for them to consolidate or get better,
there's still a team that I maybe this is just me being risk averse,
but they I think they're not far enough along in the process to where they
can be, you know, turning down all these bites at the apple they
have because like we didn't talk about Kevin Hurder. I like Kevin Hurder.
I think he might be like a seventh guy that just as a lights out
shooter on a good team someday. And you know, they got all these
guys in the like twenty one to twenty three range, throw Reddish and Hunter
in there, Like, realistically, all those guys aren't part of the future.
But I think you want to keep all these guys as many around as
you can to see if which couple of them pop, and then you have
a better idea in a year or two of like what your team actually is
going to look like, and consult look like, and consolidation happens kind of
organically. And really the Callins situation is a good example because they're just like,
now we're gonna wait and see what you are before we meet your max
salary demands. Like we just we're going to go another year. If you're
this good, we'll pay you if not later we got restricted, right,
It's like, I think that's kind of a good way to approach it.
So having said all that about how they could get there, I don't know.
I'd I think you just kind of hang on and see which one of
these guys kind of emerge from from from all this and and you, you
know, hope to come out of this year with an idea of like,
these are are six guys that are really a big part of the future,
and the rest of them we can can consider moving because this isn't the year,
right, Like they want to make the playoffs. They're gonna do that.
I think you'd just be happy with that and not you know, think
about pushing, you know, going crazy. I'm with you, truth or
trash. The Golden State Warriors can be more than a first round stepping stone.
So this means they can win a playoff series. Yeah, not a
play in series. I just want to make that clear. A play an
actually playoffs I guess series that involves seven games against the team that actually I
think that's truth. And I feel incredibly uneasy about saying that because we talked
about this before we started recording. I thought, based on the preseason,
and my sort of mantra on them was, I don't know if they're gonna
be any good. But I know they're gonna be They're gonna play really hard
and be fun and defend, and that hasn't been true at all. They've
been just super inconsistent at the shooting is like Kelly Ubrey on the literally the
worst three point shooting start in NBA history is a huge story. Wiggins being
looking incredible for stretches and looking like he just doesn't want to be there.
The Andrew Wiggins experience is the thing. I think a huge issue that will
continue to be a complicated thing is that, you know, Steve Kerr wants
to run an offense that is like high level you know whatever math analogy you
want to use, like it's advanced calculus, and he has it's really react
basically right, and it's it's complicated. You have to be watching three other
guys and waiting for Steph Curry to not come off this pin down but the
other one in on a split cut with this guy and he's gonna you have
it's it's it's it requires an incredibly high basketball IQ. So it's an advanced
calculus offense with guys that can't do long division yet, Like that's that's what
the roster that's the situation. And so Curry blew up last night because they
simplified and he just said ff it, like I'm going to attack the basket
and and make cool stuff happen. So that's a huge problem. Wiseman's gonna
play a ton and he has no idea where to be. Ninety percent of
the time he does more harm than good right now, But the flashes are
incredible. They should continue to play him. They will continue to play him,
and it's going to be rough sledding against good teams, especially as that
you realize that, like he just has miles and miles to go in terms
of like understanding where to be, how to position himself, how to rebound
the ball in traffic, which he cannot do. There's all this stuff.
But I do think there's a chance that with Steph, with Draymond, assuming
those guys stay healthy, there will be the learning curve will be gradual,
but there will be one. And when you have an MVP type player,
which I think Steph still is last night, you truth, with one hundred
percent truth, you have a shot. And so you have a shot not
only to make the playoffs, but to beat somebody because again you know the
principles on this team have done it, and I think that carries a lot
of weight if the question is that they will be more than a playoff stepping
stone, like they're definitely gonna win a series. I don't know. They
absolutely could, though it wouldn't It wouldn't register to me as as a shock
if they did. I think they need to make a trade to do it.
And that's where they get questionable to me, is that would this be
the season to do that? Even if it's not. The Wiseman future picks
and Andrew Wiggins all in for James Harden play Like, does it make sense
to mortgage any part of the future or do anything this year? Are you
good enough to justify doing that? Because I just don't I could. I
guess I could see them winning a playoff series as it is, but you
would need to get and maybe I'm just too stuck in their early season funk
where you know, Kelly Huber is one of nineteen on wide open threes for
whopping five point three percent clip on wide open threes there, But like,
you need more shooting on this team desperately, and if they're not, I
don't know how there are better players on this team than they were last year.
And the Warriors defended about lee average with Draymond Green on the court last
year, so you would think that should translate into better returns this year.
I'm just I'm not sure. There's something about the scene that still feel uneasy.
Like you said, they're gonna play Wiseman a bunch and then just the
shooting variants night tonight from the supporting cast is just and they don't have like
you look at this team, there's not like great supporting cast defenders. Who
is the Warrior's second best defender. Oh, it's probably Wiggins, which is
like, and I will say as bad as Wiggins has looked it just in
Spurts, I do think he's had some good games. Can you believe how
much how I'm just like he did like eight years of Minnesota history didn't happen.
Everyone's laughing at me. Then I'm like, you know, sometimes he's
actually but he so Ubre is there is the guy they've been putting on like
Dan Lillard for example, and he's the one that's gonna guard the most threatening
perimeter player, and he's just feast or famine because he does a lot of
incredibly aggressive, you know, he's like it's like if Jim Boylan only coached
Kelly, that's what defense will look like. And so he gets beat backdoor.
He's terrible off the ball, like all that stuff. Wiggins. Actually
he knows how to use his length. He's pretty strong. He's stronger than
Ubre. He's had a bunch of like chase down blocks that like the Warriors,
just like Clay Thompson was a much better defender, but did not have
the length or bursts to do some of the stuff that Wiggins does. So
it's probably Wiggins, I guess. But but yeah, that's terrifying. It
is for a moment of depend depending on him for anything is like is a
mistake. But what's interesting about this team is they so there are shooters like
Damian Lee can shoot. Michael Molder is in the NBA because he can shoot
that, you know, And actually Damian Lee, probably outside of Curry and
Draymond, has like the highest, the most developed understanding of how gold and
Say wants to play. I think most people think he should be playing more
because he's passable defensively and he sort of understands what the Warriors are trying to
accomplish on both ends. The problem is like if you play Molder and you
play Lee and instead of say Wiggins and and Ubre, not that you'd ever
really play meaningful minutes with both of those guys on the floor. But Molder
and Wiggins are Molder and Lee, you're just kind of giving up a lot.
They're they're not athletic. So the Warriors have these lineups that can be
good on one end, but probably not on the other. Potentially, although
look like Uber is gonna be better, right Like Wiggins is what he is,
but Uber is gonna be better. You can't shoot this. He shot
thirty five percent on pretty solid volume last year. If he shot thirty,
like what would you have to shoot from now on to the end of the
year to hit like thirty three percent on the year, he'd be like a
forty five percent year or something ridiculously, So he's if he gets anywhere within
like three or four percent of what he shot last year, he's gonna be
incredible from here on out. So I don't know, I just think this
is it's probably not good to be doing this. After Steph won for sixty
two and Draymond looked like vintage Draymond on defense against Portland. But you know,
I still am not ready to give up on my initial baseline of like,
I think they're gonna be fun. I think they're gonna defend, and
I think they're gonna be like interesting because they have they have not beenest.
They've been interesting in the wrong way so far because they've lost three games by
twenty five. I think they end up being a playoff team. So like,
I do think that things are gonna get better. I just unless they
make a i'll call like an Aaron Gordon sized move, like a player at
that level that addresses an actual need in an impactful way, which would be
defense for them. He's not gonna help their shooting. Like That's where I
just don't know if I could see them winning a playoff series. Like I
don't know that they have the fire the firepower on offense or just the defensive
depth. Yeah, I don't think they're gonna because I think if they if
they were going to, they would have well, you know, back before
before the draft or you know, I just I agree that I think you
know they're they're clearly a move with the thing is like what are you gonna
do? Because Wiggins is negative value, Clay's contract is negative value. Draymond's
might be negative value. You're not trading stuff. You're you're almost definitely not
trade if you're making a window move, you wouldn't trade Draymond anyway. I
think his contract you could argue his net neutral for not like if he's gonna
defend like he did against Portland. Yeah, and what you like, you
can't move Clay because he's too important. I think long term anyway, no
one's like, what do you get from him? It's you have Ubrey's expiring.
What can you attach to that to make something happen? Where do you
land on the And I'm surprised like this hasn't been talked more about, like
the go all in and get James Harden. I just don't think. I
think if you could sort of hook the Warriors decision makers up to up to
or shoot him up with truth serum. I think they look at this year
as another gap year and not this is not in the same way as last
season. I think what having now seen so the best thing that could have
happened for the stability of the team was that sixty two point game from Steph
because what that tells the Warriors is that we've still got an MVP caliber player
and so we can afford to try to make the playoffs. This year,
We're gonna probably get a sweet Minnesota pick because the Wolves are terrible, and
that pick is Russell's popping champagne after losses. He's counting ral victory. Now,
yeah, so you got that. I think they'll develop. They'll hope
Wiseman develops. So I just number for a player like hard at number one.
Like this is probably personal, but like it's hard for me to think
of a team if I'm running that team that I want him like for anything
of value, just because I think he's gonna aid. He still looks really
good when he's played. But that's kind of a side point. I think
bill Warriors specifically, this is a better gap year and they're really hoping that
by the time Clay is back next year, Steph is still MVP level.
Draymond proves this year that last season he just didn't care and he's still,
you know, an All NBA defender. Wiseman gets better, Wiggins is still
Wiggins. You get another high pick in there. I think they're just kind
of what's the analogy I want to use or what's the this is sort of
I don't know, it's like a Spurs thing. I think they want to
be the Spurs. I think they want to be really good for twenty years.
I think I think kind of that's the aim. And I don't know
that that's a hardened move. For example, is is going to achieve what
they're going for. I'd be curious if they could find a middle ground move
like I mentioned before, where it's you keep Wiseman at least, like that's
the can you get in Aaron Gorge nay I mentioned you don't like Zachobeam,
but it feels like he'd be perfect for this team. Even smaller scale than
that, like DeVante Graham not shouting well right now, but that's someone that
to seem could really use. They would also be a fun Kyle Lowry team.
Who wouldn't be a fun Kyle Lowry team. Send Andrew Wiggins home.
Oh, wouldn't have sign me up for that? That's incredible. You can
have the Minnesota pick, Just give me Kyle Lowry and I don't think I
think it probably was more than the would you do the Minnesota pick and Wiggins
for Kyle Lowry if ye like I was gonna say, if you assured me
that Kyle Lowry would cease aging and sign another assignment for three more years and
be just as good at thirty eight or whatever as he was at thirty four,
But then I would do that. Seems like that's asking a lot.
It's kind of asking a lot you had you had the Pacers on this,
Yeah, this is this is gonna be kind of a bad look since we
just talked about how the Raptors are in trouble sort of. But I'm in
on the Nick Nurse coaching tree from which Naate Jorkern has fallen, and I
think so the Pacers sort of just picked the low hanging fruit, which was
their shot profile from last year where they shot a ton of mid rangers.
They've cut those out. They're shooting a bunch more threes, and as I
just looked through the rocks now, the TJ. Warren injury is a big
deal because they just don't have any wings with size. Jeremy Lamb, I
just he hasn't played. I wouldn't expect they're going to get anything from him
coming off that injury. He's a type of player that they need but not
no, well they started so they started Aaron Holiday. They still have justin
Holiday. I guess maybe we're overlooking him, but Ron overlooking him, but
that's an issue. The wing is the wing thing is kind of a problem.
But I just I just feel like they handled the shot profile stuff.
They were very good last year. I think they have the potential to be
even better this year just by fixing that and looked like Oldipo looks good.
I don't think all NBA Oladipo is coming back. That just felt like just
lightning in a bottle. That year. He was just super healthy, super
quick, getting by everybody. But what he's done so far this year has
been as good as any other year of his career, including the sort of
truncated I think eighteen nineteen year where he was sort of hurt, made an
All Star Game and then played like thirty some odd games and didn't play the
rest of the year. He had a sequence tonight at the end of the
game where he came down, did a pull up three from like twenty eight
feet to get the Pelican or to get Indie within three, stole the inbound
assisted a Miles turner three that tied, and like he just he looks active
on both ends. Olddipo looks like a player. So and he's not telling
anything. Sorry, he's not even doing anything like unsustainable. Yeah, he's
not gonna shoot sixty percent. I'll catch a shoot threes forever. But you
mentioned the pull up three, Like thirty six point eight percent on pull up
threes for him, Like that's totally like that's you know, probably closer to
all NBA season than the one where he was an All Star before he got
injured. But like that's not an absurd number where it's like, oh,
he can't do that. And he's been defending well too, which wasn't happening
in the bubble, and it felt like he was hijacking possessions on offense app
points and it just doesn't feel that way now. Yeah, so I've departed
from our from our conceit. But the truth, I guess I'll just say
truth trash. Talk to me later. India is by the thing on the
island is India is this good? Which by this good? I guess it's
like, you know, they're one of the three or four best teams in
the East. I'm gonna call the truth they're good, right, Like,
yeah, they kind of have a lot of talents. So but we didn't
even talk about Sabonus yet. I don't think either of us are super high
on Sabonus relative to higher now yeah, way higher now. Yeah, he's
been Look he's not gonna shoot, he's taking threes now, He's not gonna
shoot fifty plus percent from me on the arc forever. But like they're not
getting anything from Miles Turner beyond the arc right now, he's up thirty percent.
So it's like that, like there's kind of the give and take there,
Like this team is just ridiculously good. So Bonus is just like super
charged now in this offense too. And I think people like view his game
as a throwback. I just feel like he's more of a contemporary spin on
like doing some like the work, Like he's he's not setting up shop in
the post taking ten to twelve seconds off the shack hack while he's backing dudes
down, like he's making these just like super fast reads. He's really like
he's really good at like using his shoulders and like he's gonna lead fast breaks
too. So he's just been so good for them. And if you were
say, like truth or trash, they're top four in the East. I
did not have them here at the beginning of the season. If you tell
me that they're keeping Victor Oladipo and they're not going to trade him, which
I do think needs to be factored into all this since he's coming in a
contract year and he's look, he's making that decision more difficult because he's playing
so well and it's like, all right, this is great, but if
we pay him, like what happens from there? And that you do have
to think about that. They don't really have a north Star aside from Sabonus
after him, and I don't think you want to build your entire team around
a Sabonus type. You still need that traditional face up option, which Sabonus
is just not. And we're even seeing the benefits of what old Deepo does
from Malcolm Brogden just being able to open his game. That's something that t.
J. Warren isn't even gonna do when he's healthy. So if you
told me they kept Oladipo, I'd pencil them in his top four in the
East right now. And they have continuity in spaces like at the top where
a lot of other teams don't. And like you said, they took the
they swallowed or swung at the low hanging fruit, which was their shot profile
where you know, Steve Clifford team is gonna be like, hey, we're
not going to turn the ball over or foul. And they were just like,
hey, we're gonna take three steps back and take more threes instead of
all these long twos, which which was always you know with Turners specifically,
like he's the number one guy, but they have all these guys that are
very good, like Oladipos he's fine, and Brogden is a good three point.
She brought out a career high thirty three a couple of nights ago.
Yeah, twenty one and eleven. Tonight he hit four or nine from deep
old depos five eleven. This is a They beat the Pels and over time
by two, so that Oladipo incredible sequence at the end of regulation paid off.
Yeah, they just have a bunch of It is an interesting point that
you make though, that they don't have that north star. I don't know
how they ever, how they get it with this iteration of the team and
the thing is like it's so clearly needs to be a big wing because otherwise
that but if even if they had, if they had a healthy TJ.
Warren, the man that they're just like, they're good at every position,
maybe maybe they're a team that if Warren gets healthy, although the foot thing
is scary because he's had a lot of foot injuries in his career. I
mean, I'd like them against almost anybody in the playoffs at least to be
really competitive if they had, if they're starting five were turners a bonus Warren,
Oladipo and brog And that's tough. That's really tough. And then you
just look at who comes off the bench for them, Aaron Holliday, Justin
Holliday. They're just so dB and throw Dougment Dermott in there if you have
to. Yep, they've got good. I'm I'm in on them. I
might be higher on them than you, even though you're the one that introduced
this truth or trash the net. The nets are one piece shy of actual
title contention, and that piece is not James Harden. Hmm. I'm gonna
say trash, and it's only because I actually don't think they need anything else.
I'm gonna ask follow up question, Yeah, who is after Jared Allen
the nets second best defender? Oh man, can it be Andrew Wiggins again?
He could beat Bruce Brown, they just don't play him well in a
playoff series. I think it's Kevin Durant because we've seen the as he has.
He can be a really high end defender and was a really high end
defender in the games that mattered a great deal for the Warriors and to a
lesser extent, the Thunder. But yeah, no, that's that's a good
point. They don't have someone that night tonight, Like for the millionth time,
Torrian Prince looks like he should be that guy. He just isn't.
But no, they that that's an issue. I think though, that they
have so much offensively potentially, they've been a disappointment to me, even if
like the things that you worried most about, which would be how Irving and
Durant looked, have been like major positives. I think they both look great.
Durant doing even I mean, Durant looks like Kevin Durant to me,
I think it's almost indistinguishable from pick a year, you know. But but
yeah, I don't. I don't know who the defender is. I think
theoretically in a playoff series, if they're all playing well, there's a way
to just work around that because they can put lineups on the floor that are
super long that can you know, maybe they're a team that needs to play
more zone. I don't know, but to me it is it's definitely not
James Harden. James Harden is not the answer for them with today, Like
it's not even close. So people are using the like Durant needing to miss
gains and Irving needing to miss games. Now that Dinwoody is down, is
like the I but is to justify that, And it's Causlvert's going to play
better. And at this point, if you need to punt on you know,
twelve to fifteen games this year, I'd probably just do it. The
opportunity cost for James Harder just doesn't fix what you He definitely elevates their ceiling,
but I don't think he makes them any less high variants night tonight necessarily
more if anything. I mean, yeah, they're already high variants just because
of you know, being an offensive first team. Yeah, I don't know,
you know, you know, their second best is Joe Harris in the
conversation there's a players who actually play. It might be Joe Harris. I
think I think it might be I mean not, I'm kind of serious,
but but Joe Harris has become like a pretty good Like past an insulting,
you don't want Joe Harris to be your second best defender, right, yeah,
okay, that's fair? No, I yeah, I mean who is
that player though? Who? Who? If they are a player away,
I don't want to keep stepping on this Tobe, But like Aaron Gordon was
the name, it gets a lot harder to do now that you don't have
Din Witty because he would have been perfect for Orlando. I don't know if
there's anything smaller scale that you could necessarily do if you're them, Like can
you get Thaddeus Young probably helps out this team a lot. Even a Trevor
Ariza if he gets bought out, ends up helping them a lot. People
have mentioned George Hill that doesn't really fit what they need on defense, even
though he'd be obviously stellar for them offensively. Could they get Kyle Anderson Like
that would be super interesting? Now you can't blood, but he would be
fun for them, So it feels like they are, like they'll be in
the title contenders circle, but after being so in on them because of the
way Irving and Durant have looked like their defense is a problem. They're twenty
third since Christmas. They were like first after their first two games. They've
been twenty third since they can't grab a defensive rebound. The other night,
which was wild, they closed without Jared Allen, DeAndre Jordan or Caris LeVert
on the floor. They want with some Jeff Green at the five stuff,
and it came back to bite them because they weren't able to grab rebounds at
crucial points. So you know, losses like that, like you know you
lost too. They also lost to Charlotte like that. It's I don't want
to read too much in Atlanta. It's not like a terrible team to lose
to either. In these back to backs against teams are weird. It feels
like everyone's splitting them. I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom in Brooklyn,
but I'm still I'm higher on them than I was entering the season,
where I thought that they were just Oh, Kevin Durant like he's coming off
and Achilles let's adjust our expectations, and the fact that he's at an MVP
level basically is a huge deal. The defense long term is just super concerning
to me. And look, there's a chance they end up trading Jared Allen
too because of his contract coming up. Like he's playing more than DeAndre Jordan,
more likely to close games. There's still a chance that they move him.
Here's the So I'm just looking at it now. So they're eighth and
offensive or sorry, ninth in offensive efficiency. I think we agree that that's
going to come up. This is by cleaning the glass so there's no garbage
time. And they're actually eleventh in defense, yes, despite because they were
first after their first two games and their twenty third sins. Sure, but
they those two games counted. I mean they did. That's that's fair.
No, I don't know. Yeah, the defense is an issue. I
just think the offense could be like if they're the best offense in the league.
I mean if they're not, if they're not one of the five best
offenses in the league, like we're gonna be the same. What the hell
went wrong? So I think you're you're you're if you can get up,
if you can get to fourteen fifteen defensively or fall to that from this number,
which you so rudely are just being dismissive of. They have the best
opponent effective field goal percentage in the league, right, I know, they've
been super lucky. They've been super lucky, so they've been super lucky to
be basically mediocre. But yeah, the rebounding thing is really weird to me.
There doesn't seem to be an excuse for that, and that actually I
think you look at their roster though, and you're like, you know what,
that might be the league's worst rebounding team. That's sort of aligns doesn't
though, because defensively, DeAndre Jordan's just not the same. Jared Allen's never
been like that guy. And if you're gonna go with Kevin Duran Jeff Green
at the five, like if those are your front court, like you're gonna
give up some offensive boards in those situations. Yeah, the thing is with
the thing with them is going into the year. I guess like I was
just I was I'm very protective of Steve Nash, and I was like,
has nothing to do with the fact that you guys are alumni of Santa Clara
at all. No, he's not none whatsoever. He's sort of like,
like I don't consider him family. He certainly would. Did you know that
Steve Nash went to college with Lloyd Pierce? Comes up on every single broadcast
that either one of them are on. They don't both have to be on
it. That's I've played a lot of basketball with Lloyd Pierce because he was
an assistant in Santa Clara when I was there. He was an incredible defender,
as you might imagine. But he but but so like I the way
the next thing I thought would go south if we're gonna go south with one
injury to just unmanageable sets of personalities, and like we've cleared those hurdles,
Like it doesn't seem like, you know, Kyrie kind of tiptoed a little
bit into being Kyrie, but like there hasn't been anything, you know,
just super disruptive and their most important players look healthy. So now I'm kind
of thinking, like, well, if the hurdles that I thought were going
to trip them, if they cleared them, like shit, let's go,
Like they're the talents there, Like what's in the way. It turns out
it's defense and rebounding. But maybe I'm just I don't know. Suddenly I
feel like way more optimistic than I should have been, just because the way
I thought it would go bad didn't happen. I get that's it's if Kevin
Durand and Kye River in a play this well, Championship is the ceiling in
Brooklyn. I want to make that clear. He just feels like if you
need to beat the Lakers, or the Clippers, or even the Bucks,
I mean shit, even the Pacers at this point, like they feel like
they're one player short and not the James Harden type player. I don't think
it needs to be a star, but it needs to be just like another
defensive body, like the player Torrian Prince looks like he could be. That's
exactly what I was gonna say. If they just imported someone who looked exactly
like Torrian Prince and had like the build and the ability, but actually like
played like that person looks, then Yep, they'd be. They'd be the
title favorites. Probably are we out of trash or truth or trashes? I
think we each have two more left from what I'm looking at a Pelicans,
Yeah, truth or trash the Pelicans before I want to. I want to
make sure I get this right because I think they gave up too many points
tonight. They're fifth defensively right now, truth or trash? The Pelicans are
a top five defense. Whoa I'm gonna say trash. Top five teams high,
Like, if you give me some wheel room of like top twelve,
I might buy it. Top ten. Let's go top ten. Why is
that still so hard? Don't you trust stand band? I mean, I'll
say truth just because all his teams tend to play above their head and the
Steven Adams on off stuff with them is just absolutely wild. At this point,
Leto's a really good regular season player. Ingram's been defending better a Lonzo
Ball is a very good maybe not necessarily one on one, but he's a
good team defender. So I'll I'll say truth. I think it's truth too,
And I think the problem is it comes at the expense of, like
what made New Orleans theoretically interesting last year's They played with a lot of pace,
they have the personnel. I mean, that's the Adams move at the
time made no sense because it's like we're slowing it down now because Adams cannot
Adams is not an up tempo player, no, except he will clear the
defensive boards and get started. But and the spacing issues he creates a Zion
will cramp the offense, which is sort of has they sacrifice that to play
Van Gundy defense and just sort of handle all the stuff they're supposed to handle.
They're doing like a Bucks thing where they're just like, screw it,
you guys can shoot all the threes you want. They've given up just an
ungodly percentage of opponent three point percentage when I did that. When I put
this together, they had allowed opponents its non garbage allowed opponents to take forty
eight point four percent of their shots from deed, which is like just incredible.
The Clippers were second at just under for two percent, so the gap
is wide, but you get nothing at the rim against them, which makes
sense personnel wise, because Adams is huge, Zion's big, Ingram's long,
Lonzo's a big guard Bledsoe is a fire hydrant, like, it makes sense
that if they want you out of the lane, they will keep you out
of the lane. So they will be subject to a bunch of high variance
nights where if teams just hit above the break threes, you'll lose, which
is true of Milwaukee too. But I think that, you know, sort
of like to a much larger extent with Thibodeau and the Knicks, the Pells
just sort of have principles now what, I don't know. I think actually
it's potentially detrimental for the playoffs for the same reason as the Bucks run into
trouble where if you just do this one thing and teams can scout it and
figure out where to get shots from in a playoff series, that's a problem.
The Pelicans will take that as a problem because that means they made the
playoffs. Yeah, but I just I think defensively, they got the personnel
in the style to be a really good defense. I I oversold it,
kind of trying to pin you to time five, but I'll say, like
top seven, I would. I think it's truth, you know, with
the potential to be top five, I think they're going to be a really
good defense, and if they can play fast enough occasionally and get enough shooting
somehow, they could be really good. I think they're fifth and points allowed
per possession after a defensive rebound, and they've just they've kind of done the
Stamman gun anything there where it's, hey, we're gonna make sure that we're
gonna get back and teams are not going to be able to play at above
league average pace in those situations, and they'll at least protect against the rim
there. But giving up that many threes, that makes me a little bit
uncomfortable. And there's also there's mid season shake up potential with this team too.
When you look at Lonzo entering restricted free agency, Bloodsoe is clearly,
excuse me, not untouchable, even though teams may not want to touch him
themselves. So there's that would be like what would make me uneasy about it?
Top seven I might call trash, top top ten I'll call truth.
Yeah, they you know, it's interesting if you look at the whole thing.
So the Bucks kind of made this a thing where you know, they'll
give up a lot of threes, but it's they're very specific about where they
want those threes to come from and who they want shooting them. Typically,
they'll just let a bunch of bigs shoot above the break threes all night and
just you know, assume you're going to hit thirty one percent of those and
we can live with it. But if you look up and down the you
know, trying to correlate you know, opponent three point frequency with defensive rating,
you get just it's all over the map. And I think, really
some of that's luck, but I think it's been true for a couple of
years now. The teams that figure out, like we just done a lot
of corner threes and you can have them at volume from everywhere else, and
we're good with that. If that means you get nothing at the rim,
that works, but it also works if you run you know, Indiana for
example this year now is allowing the lowest three point frequency. Their defense is
good, So it's just it's interesting. I think the Pills are picking a
way to handle three point volume, and I think it's gonna work because they've
got the guys to do it. But you can also they're giving up more
wide open three point attempts as a share of their shots than any team in
the league right now, and teams are hitting those at like a forty percent
clip, So it's not like that's probably about what they could expect. And
so if they're doing this while that's happening, it probably does bode well for
the sustainability of it. Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm hemming and
hang now too with the it's just a lot of threes. But look,
that means they're gonna lose. They're gonna lose to a bad team by twenty
five, like it's gonna happen. It's gonna happen more than once. But
but I think if they're just gonna stick to that principle, like you have
the Bucks showing you that this works, so not a bad team to emulate
for a regular season defense. True, you kind of touched on this already,
truth or trash. The Clippers will rank outside the top twelve of points
allowed per possession, right outside the Do you know where they ranked right now?
I can look at it right now. I'll tell you that they are
twenty first, Am I seeing that right? Twenty first in defensive rating?
I have them as twenty sixth with from cleaning the Glass. Okay, I'm
using NBA dot Com, same difference. Why why can't they be better than
that? So it's they're, like you said, they're giving up a ton
of threes, but they also have I'm calling you trash just because they rank
in the top ten of both RIM and three point defense right now, actual
opponent percentage, So there's I'm looking at this thing. There's no way this
holes. The rebounding issues are probably fairly real because just you know, you
have zoobots, but like Sergebacco when he plays the five isn't gonna bring a
ton. Maybe having Marcus Morris healthy will help you a little bit. They've
been They've been fouling wildly. They're twenty sixth in foul rate while being only
twentieth in forcing turnovers. That's something to look at, but it just feels
like, you know, maybe I'm like, like I should I feel like
I should be closer to the truth on this. Then I am trash because
like you just look at all the indicators right now, and there are a
bunch of red flags. But I just feel like, you look at the
personnel of George and Leonard, won't you have Morris back. I would expect,
just like the everything to normalize a little bit. I think reboundy is
gonna end up being the issue for them, defensive rebounding, but looking at
fouls and forcing turnovers, I don't know if that just becomes like remains this
huge issue for them. I think I'm going to oversimplify it and just say
they were fifth in defensive rating last year, and I don't think the personnel
has changed significantly enough for them to fall. Yeah, montros Harrell was not
the glue. Oh No, And I think Lou Williams is gonna play all.
You know, Lou Williams might play less also as a potential trade candidate,
I think, but you know, he's already playing less two, which
is why this is so weird. No, I think. I mean,
we really haven't talked a lot of Clippers, but they're to me still just
right right there. I think the you know, if last season had ended
ferently, like if they'd made the conference finals, which obviously they could have,
and have put up a good fight, like, I wouldn't have really
any doubts about them being awesome on both ends. But just because of what
happened now there's this stigma that, like, well, something's wrong and these
personalities aren't gonna work. But yeah, I think I think they have as
good a chance to be a top five defenses as anybody you know, including
the Mighty Pelicans probably. I believe you had one more about a certain King's
prospect. Hold on, I see him as his dad tweeted again, Wait,
can we talk about how his dad tweeted deleted the tweet but then quote
tweeted someone who tweeted the deleted tweet? Is Paul Pierce running Marvin Vadley's senior
junior's Twitter account? Or am I running it? Because I mean no,
I don't know, like he Yeah, it's there was some it's difficult to
unpack, like how why it happened in that way. That's that's only the
second strangest part, I guess. Yeah, So for people that don't know,
I can't imagine if you're listening to this podcast, you don't know what
happened. But basically Marvin Bagley's dad said, you know, tweeted trade him
based more or less, and then Darren Fox's dad said, yeah, trade
him, which is awesome. By the way, if you want to choose
a side in terms of, like you know, the King's factions, you
probably are gonna want to be on Darren Fox's side. No, it's so
yeah, truth or trash. Marvin Bagley's got to go like they got it.
They should just trade him as someone who's been higher on Badley the most.
I'm just gonna call trash the I think he's getting like forcing it on
offense now too much from the King's games that I've seen where he's like I
can't remember which game it was, but I feel like he aggressively just like
told him want to get out of his way so he could just really work
in the post and then just bomk up a shot. I could. It's
getting to the point where it's tough to really believe in him. Like the
numbers are not great, but I still just look at the way he ended
his rookie season and there was just such flow offensively, he was hitting shots
from the perimeter off the catch. I just feel like that player is still
in life. I don't know why that player would be gone, to be
honest, there's not anyone here in Sacramento that's like monopolized touches. Relative to
that season. You have Harrison Barnes is still relatively low lift there. You
still have de Aaron Fox, Tyrre's Halliburton when he's healthy is super low usage.
I'm not there yet, but the fact that, and I also don't
know how accurately parents speak for their children in this case, but you have
to believe that one of the fathers d Aaron Foxes or Marvin Bagley's is like
really in tune into what his son's feeling. So either fox wants Bagley out
or Bagley actually wants out or both. Yeah, I want, I want
to I'll paraphrase it. Ronona Shelburn on The Jump today said they were talking
about it and said something to the effect of Marvin Bagley's We those of us
in the business know that Marvin Bagley's father is a to put it nicely,
influential figure. I think influential was the word in his son's life, which
to me is just like that's as much as she could say comfortably without saying
like this guy, you know what a so you know, like so and
so. I think like it's a LaVar ball situation potentially in terms of like
he's probably in ownership's ear. He's he's definitely he knows that a fact.
He's he's made, He's he did this when Dave Yeager was the coach.
He's you know, questioned Yeager and was like making, you know, all
arguing for a son to play more all this stuff. The thing for me
is, even if none of this had happened, even if there wasn't.
Now this to me, it's a significant issue because I do think that if
Fox's dad is saying, yeah, trade him, to me, that is
at least some evidence that the guys on the team that matter are kind of
like, yeah, we don't, we're not in on him, because I
don't feel like, you know, that would have Maybe that's reading too much
into it, but throw all that out to me, the theory of Bagley,
and also throw out the Luca thing, which nobody in Sacramento will ever
throw out that it could have been it could have been Luca. And the
best part is there were there were talks that one of the reasons that then
Kings GM Valadi Divots didn't draft Lucas because he had a bad relationship with Luca's
father. Like, you can't make this up. So throw that out too.
The theory of Bagley as as a player in the modern NBA like just
never made sense to me because he's essentially like a positionless guy. And now
tweeters are good now if you can be like a three or four, like,
that's a good thing. But he's the wrong kind of tweener where he's
a four point five. He's like he's like a John you know, John
Collins is the easy comp But John Collins has a ton of offensive game,
is like a three level scorer. You at least have that. Bagley,
you know, has not demonstrated a three point shot, has not shot well
from two point range, despite like just obviously great athleticism. He's off the
floor super fast. He's a lefty, which always is a little bit of
an advantage. He's extremely left handed, though, and defensively can't defend the
rim and might even be worse trying to guard mobile fours. Can't guard there's
no way he guards below for on the perimeter, can't do it. So
I just, you know, the theory of him, like his best case
outcome. I don't know what it ever was like on a good team,
a Mari Stodhomyer or something like, you know, which would be incredible.
He's never touching that. But that type of player where it's like super athletic,
he can be a dive guy. You'll you'll live with the defensive you
know, negatives, He's just he's not even that and he hasn't been healthy.
And now you got all this other stuff that I just said we'd ignore,
so you know, there's always ways to repair situations, and like Luke
Walton getting fired could be one of those, considering that you know, he
and Buddy Healed had their issues and those bunch of tamped down. But I
think I think it's true. I think he's got to go. I think,
you know, there is talent there, as you say, like,
there's a chance to just get him somewhere where he can play, where there's
a fresh star at all the cliches, and maybe it looks better, but
I just don't see a way out. Where do you put him. He's
making nine million this year and eleven million basically, I think, what is
it eleven eleven point three million next year? And I'm just like, what's
the team that's taking a chance on Marvin Bagley right now? Okay, see
just let's stockpile young guys and see what happens. It would have to be
that, I thought Chicago, if they don't want to pay marketing, like
is Bagley in something small for marketing? Maybe I think marketing is way better.
He's way better. But it's like he's probably gonna cost you Joe Harris
or Marcus Morris money if he keeps playing like this, you know, four
years and seventy million or something like that. Do you want to give that
to him? I'm just no, I just don't know what team you like?
Those are? Okay, see's a good one. I just can't think
of another team that's gonna be like, yeah, we'll take a flyer on
Marvin Bagley and we'll give you something in return, Like you could send him
in the Knicks cap space, But like, are you salary dumping Marvin Bagley?
Right? I mean, I let's foy if it gets to that point,
that would be crazy. But no, it would just have to be
a team. It just go down to the bottom of the standing Detroit,
like just somewhere that like, you know, winning is not not a realistic
thing and it's maybe not the number one priority for this year. You just
give Bagley a ton of minutes and just let's because really he's never averaged He's
averaged basically twenty five a game, twenty five minutes a game for all three
years of his career, and you know, thirteen games last year's total,
right off of a season. Just see what he could do, just because
then you'll know, you know, I think I think there are teams that
could talk themselves into him and it being worth it. And the thing is,
though, like he's not an insignificant investment because of his draft slot,
as he said, Like he's gonna make some money. So he's basically like
a mid level guy in terms of salary, with the bonus of team control
if you decide you want to keep him. But it's not an insignificant acquisition
if you're gonna, if you're gonna, just you would be selling low at
super low, so you wouldn't even have a chance to sell medium. No.
No, But it seems clear to me that the Kings are just not
gonna. Look if they're not gonna and this might be the point, like
the part where Okay, get rid of Luke Walton, maybe some of this
changes, Like if you're not going to put and I think this is a
you know a problem in general, but play faster. Sacramento is eighth in
average possession time right now. They should be faster than that, Like there's
no reason, uh, you know they should be. To me, they
should be first in pace after every single defensive rebound or just live like live
ball turnover. And if you're not gonna play like that at like badly is
probably be most valuable as a floor runner in those situations. So just get
out and play even faster. I think that's right. I mean, like,
I don't think Walton is like if we're apportioning in all this, like,
I think Walton is justified in giving Bagley the role that he's given him
so far. But I do think there's a lot of evidence to suggests that
Walton just isn't, you know, like a top whatever you want to say,
a top twentys of bottom ten coach. Yeah, like Saguinel's thirteenth in
transition frequency this year. That's just that that's just that's too low there.
Fox. First of all, right, well, and if you want to
get Buddy healed clean, looks like get him into scattered situations. And I
think Ty Halberton too, like that guy we have. We should talk more
about him. So he's year did you pick him before the season? Is
Rookie of the Year. Yeah, the injury is probably gonna hurt him at
this point, just because he won't have the volume of Lomello, probably,
But yeah, I think I don't. I think Rookie of the Year is
tough for a player like him because he's not going to average seventeen a game
or whatever, you know, but I think he to me, he's clearly
the rookie that will have the biggest impact on winning. Like this's not it's
not close. He might already be net mutual depositive on defense. Oh no,
he is. And he's really smart. He's always in the right place,
and he does like my favorite thing, which is such a niche thing.
But he'll he'll he'll he'll pre plant, not pre plan, but he
will drive with intent and specific intent of I know, I'm gonna beat this
guy to this side, and I'm gonna draw this defender, and the second
that defender takes a step towards me, the ball out of my hands,
and that defender's guy has an open shot. He has like just just knows
how to play, and he plays so well off others too. He had
when he got injoyed. I think he hadn't affect the field goal percentage north
of seventy on jumpers, which probably like a thirty shot sample size, But
I don't care. I wanted the Knicks to take him so bad and they
did not. Obi Toppin seems like he'll be he'll be fun. So I
had a last one here that we don't need to spend too much time on.
But James Harden will be traded before the March twenty first trade deadline,
and it will not be to one of the six teams that he is named
as a preferred destination. True, they're trash truth that he'll be traded by
that deadline, trash that it will be to one of the teams he has
not named. So you think he'll be in Portland, Boston, Brooklyn,
Philly, Milwau, Milwaukee or oh god, what was what was the other
one? Why am I banking on that one? Did you say Philly?
Did not say Philly, Philly, Brooklyn, Boston, Milwaukee, Portland,
Miami, Miami. I don't like any of those. So the Sisters,
if they're playing this well, like this was almost a bad start for the
Jay Like, if you're looking for James Harden returns, maybe there'll be another
team that gets desperate. So I don't want to go that far. But
when you're looking at the teams that he named, I don't think Boston does
it just because it doesn't. They just don't make these trains. I know
they traded, but after he goes somewhere else, it will be leaked that
they were close. Do you give up Jalen Brown right now for age thirty?
W James Hard It's just that's a tough decision. But Miamie just doesn't
I don't see it, like if you went Tyler hero Duncan Robinson and all
the picks plus salary filler, like does that even come? Like is like
does that do it? Like? That just doesn't wound me. And then
Brooklyn and Philadelphia specifically, Brooklyn never had the best offer to begin with,
unless they were just gonna unload every single pick. But I think it's been
pretty clear that James Harden is not with that team is missing, and then
Philly is atop the East, and if they stay there through like twelve to
fifteen games, that becomes a problem. And it's not gonna be Milwaukee that
was a that would the fact that the name them was a farce like that
just had start. Yeah, and Portland would be interesting, but McCullum,
the injured Collins, Anthony Simons, and the seer little and then every single
pick that you can, you know, throw in there, which is weird
because I think their protections on the pick that they gave up this summer in
the Robert Covington trade really leak out, so they would have to like fucks
and fiddle with that. Basically, I just don't I don't see a pathway
for him to get to one of those teams. It's gotten the point where
it's like Boston is like the cleanest destination for him, and I just don't
see that happening. Yeah, I'm so terrible at these because it's like,
well, clearly they got to trade him, and clearly they will. But
then when you start going through the teams, I don't see it. I
don't see it. I don't see it. I think if I had to
pick, and I'm sure this will contradict something I thought or wrote, like
within the last month, but also maybe something that's six weeks ago, I
said, we will line up with something I said six weeks ago. Because
you just go back and forth on this, I feel like it's still the
Nets only because it seems clear to me that they are interested in names and
they have built their sort of whole identity around let's get stars, and the
din witty thing maybe opens up an avenue where you can justify, like,
hey, yea, even though we just spend a whole bunch of times,
then he clearly don't need more scoring. We need someone to fill this role.
Lavert and other stuff, Alan whatever you know, can still get you
there. I don't think it would be a good fit. I don't know
what the percentage chance of the Nets being the team is. It's not high,
but I think it might. To me, it might be the highest
still because Philly was the obvious other one, and I think Philly's just gonna
be too good and they're gonna say, well, we just needed to see
if this is gonna work. Yeah, the Ben Simmons thing was always a
tough, like under contract basically for the next half decade, twenty four all
NBA type already, that's just tough. Yeah. No, I think I
think it's Brooklyn and it's like but I put again, I sort of hate
it, you know. I feel like everyone's mentioned Toronto. Now. I'd
like to state I don't want to do a victory lap because I'm wrong all
the time. But we had a podcast where I suggested Toronto like way before
this went mainstream. It was before OG signed his extension. So the framework
was Og and Fred Van Fleet and Picks rather than Pascal Siakam. What is
now If you're trying to build a trader on Pascal Siakam, the Raptors are
in trouble at this point. I think if I'm the Raptors, I still
might believe in Pascal Siakam. And I know it's tougher with the poison Pill,
but I still might try and go the van fleet like o G Route,
I'm not giving up both Og and Siakam, though it's not something I
would do. And then I kind of I don't think they should, but
like, just for the for what they could need and the way that they're
already playing so slow, I'd like to see him in New Orleans. That'd
be something that would interest me. I mean, that would really I mean,
it would completely change their timeline. And there's like the it reeks of
we tried to speed this up with Anthony Davis too soon and haphazardly, and
then it reeks of that again. But at least it's not to Marcus Cousins.
It's James. It's James Harden, Like, I mean, it's so
difficult to imagine what that team would look like. And that's not a bad
one though, really because the Pelicans do have like the pieces that should be
interesting and and I think, as we've said, you know, they've got
some defense to sort of you know, make up for hard and depending on
what they'd have to give up to do it. But but yeah, I
don't know, Toronto is interesting too. It makes make Toronto with the one
in five starts suddenly seems way more likely than it did. You know,
I just don't know how do you sell that around Pascal Siako. I guess
maybe an NBA circles they're more level headed than NBA Twitter. I would like
to think so Siak, I'm probably is still like, oh, yeah,
we have a chance to get him, who's under contract for another what is
it, four years, five years, whatever it is. He is under
contract for four years, well three years after this one. Like maybe that's
something. And if they're willing to attach stuff like all these picks to it,
that make it an other sense. I know people have mentioned Denver.
I would if you told me that they got to keep Michael Porter Jr.
All or Jamal Murray in that scenario, I wouldn't hate it. But then
I'm like, that's just so not what Denver needs right now, Like he's
just they need a star defensive wing if that's the route they're gonna go.
So that's like they don't make a ton of sense. And we talked about
this briefly, but the Warriors, just from an asset standpoint, feel like
the only other team that could realistically field an offer and then have the incentive
to get involved, because yeah, you could probably talk yourself into some other
teams, but you know, where's Orlando gonna let throw in all their picks
plus Cole Anthony, and like they don't even have attractive stuff after that,
like moving Jonathan Isaac now he's one injured to just signed an extension, So
there's the poison pill provision to deal with Atlanta. No, I just wouldn't.
I don't want to see James Hard and Trey Young on the same team,
just no, oh god, can you imagine we'll talk about my turn,
your turn, I mean, just like my turn, your turn at
the foul line, just NonStop. That would either into all of their games.
So I just don't. I don't think it's gonna be to one of
the six teams because I feel like there's a harder path to figure out packages
there. I probably agree with you that if it's gonna be one of those
six, it feels like it'll be the Nets. But I feel like because
of how wide open the league is right now, where I think you look
at it and you say, Okay, there's the Lakers, there's the Clippers,
then there's Team is it Philly is at Milwaukee, and then there's everybody
else, Like it feels like there are only three teams that are gonna belong
in that upper reschelant with like a whole match of teams that could be in
that second tier where you thought Denver and Dallas were going to be, like
now that's also populated by oh yeah the Pacers are there. Yeah, maybe
the Hawks are there. Oh the Nets are there, oh or the you
know, the Jazz are there, the Suns are there. So it feels
like there's going to be a team that talks itself into doing something wild this
year. And I don't think it's gonna be one of the six. I'm
just I'm betting on the field here, which normally isn't too bold. No,
but it's not a bad bet. You know, As I'm looking down
the teams, the one that actually sort of would have made sense had they
not already dealt for the Rockets other discround stars Washington, Like if they could
have figured out a way to just you know, Bill for Harden or the
Principles and you just decide who's given up more and you just go with that,
like that would have made weirdly like a lot of sense, just because
I think you put if you're taking on Harden, like this is why the
Nuggets just feel like such a just impossible fit to me. You know,
because the Nuggets play a very specific way and it is Nikoliokich has the ball
and passes the ball, and that's their identity. You could not introduce James
Harden into that without just totally upending that whole thing. Washington doesn't have an
identity. Washington wants to be relevant, Washington. You know, it's just
that that's the type of team. I guess Orlando falls into that category team,
like you said, but man, I don't know, it's it's it's
a mess. It's almost surprising to me that he hasn't been traded yet.
And but but that's that's we just said, you can't find any place.
Well, It's also this is very clearly they're waiting to see if Philly puts
Ben Simmons on the table, because that Crounts is anything else that you could
get. It seems pretty clear you can't do better than that. Based on
what we just said. Philly is just outright actually told you know, they're
like, you're probably just waiting, like to see if they implode. But
if you get to a point where they're, hey, it's February one and
they're still atop the East, that's probably where things would get super interesting.
And look, he keeps adding teams to his lists. He's up to say
she only had two originally. Yeah, it's exponential growth. Eventually it'll just
be like I don't know, man anywhere just it doesn't matter league league in
play now too. Yeah, send me to the G league bubble. That's
definitely something that Grant. This was great and super long, as per mostly
usual for us. If you guys are not following Grant on Twitter, please
remedy that post taste at GT Underscore Hughes. He covers the NBA spectacularly for
Bleacher Reports, so again at GT Underscore Hughes, Grant, thank you so
much again for hopping on and giving me so much of your time, and
you know so well by now that you'll be getting a text message sooner or
later to come back, always looking forward to it.