Everybody is going to vote no matter what your body temperature is, exactly like
the room temperature you're voting. When I first moved to Florida and I forget
like I passed by a nursing home, okay, a nursing home and there
was a polling station in the nursing home and I'm like, you know,
wait, like so it's like they just set the Alzheimer's patience up and they
say like, I'm here to vote. Oh but you voted already. Nah,
I don't remember it. I'll vote again. You know, you get
them. You just keep them voting and voting early and often. Right,
you were listening to Carrie Let's his Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable
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more than ever. And welcome you are watching listening to the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carry Lutts. Well, we got lots to talk
about this week with our good friend John Robino has always got a question comment
email is kl at carry Lutz dot com. Make sure you leave your comments
down below on the YouTube channel like share, subscribe, and proselytize. That's
our slogan. And well, John, everything is about the FED, right,
So they're not They didn't raise rates. They did a little pause,
but they're not cutting rates. And now the ten years going up, it
looks like they have some wiggle room in the two year, right the FED
funds rate is still above the two year. They can't let the two year
go above the Fed's fund rate where the money gets trained from the system.
Right, Hey, Carrie, Well yeah, La, last week Fed did
all hawkish pause. They didn't raise rates, but they threatened again at least
once more this year and then to keep rates higher for longer, you know,
at more or less this level or just a little bit below, all
for all of twenty twenty four, which is a pretty big deal because these
are debilitating rates right now, and I think that the FED doesn't yet get
that because wages are going up and energy is up, So these two things
are up, and the FED is terrified of both of them. They don't
want to oil to go up above one hundred dollars of barrel. They don't
want, for instance, the UAW strike to be settled on terms that are
similar to the airline pilots or the UPS drivers, because that means several hundred
thousand people are suddenly making way more money than they were, which is inflation,
as the FED defines it. So they're worried and they're willing to be
tighter for longer in order to choke wage inflation out of the system, which
is, you know, despicable on the one hand, but par for the
course on the other. It's just how the monetary authorities operate, and that
means they're going to keep things high enough to break something next year. That's
basically what they got to do, because you know, wages are not going
to start gently following after all these successful strikes. So the only way to
get wages back down to two percent a year or zero, as the FED
would rather have it, is you've got to break big sections of the economy,
lay everybody off, and then have the wages of the people that are
laid off drop dramatically because they have to go work at McDonald's, teach some
slace like that. So that's what the Fed's trying for and they will get.
You know, there's the interest rate that gives you that kind of crisis,
and it's conceivable that we're there already. So you know, right right
now, the ten year treasure is at four and a half percent, which
is the highest since two thousand and seven, which was right before the last
gignotic financial crisis. So you know, we could easily see easily see something
like two thousand and two thousand nine. Yeah, these interest rates stay as
high as they are right now, and it could be a lot worse because
we're much more indebted now than we were then. So I think they're playing
with fire. Yeah, there's no chance of fixing things in any of that,
but what they're doing right now is risking a big crisis. Hey,
you know what the thirty year fixed is at today? According to wait,
let me guess, seven point four No, no, According to this as
of September twenty second, twenty twenty three, the thirty year fixed is well,
well, it's average rates. You know, that's that's not giving me
what I want. But it's at eight percent. But that covers every bike
goes score and everything else. But we can go to scene it and we
can come up with that rate right now. And you know they just it's
like bank rate. They just give these rates, but it's it's well into
the seven we can safely say that. Let's see what Investipedius says seven point
nine two percent as of September twenty one, So okay, rates went up
on the twenty second, so it's over eight percent, so that actually is
correct. So so two years ago we were talking and we said, okay,
what mortgage rate destroys the housing market? I think you and I would
have both come in below the current rate, right, I would have said
like six and a half per sound for surely. And so you know the
housing market is artist frozen and well Florida, there's no inventory, that's the
aerodox, right, and you've got cash buyers coming in because people are fleeing
their horrendous dictatorships like California and Illinois and Venezuela Brazil. Well, okay,
brazila dictatorship put there. You know, they've got issues, and so keeople
are coming into South Florida with catch but that's a rare thing right now.
You know the rest of the country is not in that kind of a situation.
And what's coming in normal real estate markets in the US. It's first
of all Airbnb. There's going to be a deluge of Airbnb inventory from people
who can't manage their rentals anymore and are going to have to sell them.
And private equity is now net sellers. You know, the the investor demand
for houses in most parts of the country as has dried up, and that's
well, and it's the private equity guys coming in buying up whole neighborhoods have
sight on seeing institutional investor right. Yeah, but they're they're realizing that they
did most of their buying at the very peak of the biggest real estate bubble
in American history. Yeah, and it's you know, maybe they can raise
rents and generate a cash flow this year, but they're going to be looking
at massive capital loss going forward. So they're going to start selling to get
out from under. And so they're you know, where there's a shortage,
now there's going to be a glutch because of these mortgage rates. So that's
that's what I'm talking about when I'm when I said if it's gonna break something,
well, they're going to break the housing market. And that's how right
you can do it. Yeah, the only reason. Well, sales actually
year to year, year on year in Florida are down, but there's no
inventory because, like you were talking about the people with the three percent mortgage
who'd like to downsize, you can't because if you're gonna, if you're not
paying cash, then your mortgage, your costs for half the house will be
the same as what you're paying now for your big house. Nobody's nobody's downsizing
for that for sure, But but you know, there's definitely a lot of
the downward pressure. Look, oil is at ninety bucks a barrel. When
oil hits a hundred, in my opinion from my experience what we've seen over
the past couple of decades, when it hits close to one hundred, it's
a guaranteed recession. You know. Well see that that's another thing of two
years ago, you and I were talking about which oil price blows up the
market. I wouldn't have said a hundred. I would have said in the
eighties probably, And then now, yeah, we're we're poking. We poked
through ninety, right, and it held that handle. I think it might
be down today. I haven't checked and change seventy something, so it's not
meaningful Okay, but you've still got kind of tight supply reasonable demand at the
moment because you know a lot of people are driving to work and back and
that's that's supporting oil prices. So let's say they get one more impulse like
we had in the last couple of months and it breaks one hundred and yeah,
that's psychologically important and mathematically important. You know, it makes everything way
more expensive. So that that presents the FAT with another dilemma because hundred dollar
oil percolates through the economy. You know, everything that has to be delivered
suddenly gets way more expensive because yeah, and so all of a sudden,
the FAT is looking at you know, headline inflation, not core inflation,
but headline inflation back in the six percent range or something like that. Can
they ease monetary policy with headline inflation at six percent? No, they can't.
They got it. They tie. And so you know, all of
these things are pointing towards something breaking because of excessively high interest rates given our
amount of financial leverage that we have. Right So ye, and let's not
forget while the West is raising interest rates, China is cutting interest rates.
I don't think any any discussion of the global economy and the economy at home
is complete without a discussion of China's continuing economic implosion, which it gets worse
by the day. You know, really bad there, unemployment rate, youth
unemployment rate heading to fifty percent. People. Well, they have a foreclosure
crisis that you know, we don't know from even from eight o nine.
They and their foreclosure crisis is way way more. They have sixty four million
vacant units and millions and millions of units that are under construction that aren't being
built, but that the purchaser still is responsible for the mortgage. So they
got a strategic me mortgage default taking place on mass So all of that adds
to cutting imports from the US and from other countries, and their exports are
in the toilet. So, you know, for a lot of years,
I think the Chinese illusion kept the whole global economy alive. But now that
illusion's gone, how's that going to affect the United States in the West.
Yeah, it's important to understand that we had no way out of the Great
Recession until China quinn tuppled. It's total societal debt to buy all the raw
materials that everybody else in the world had to sell and that pulled the world
out of that very deep recession, but it came at a cost. You
know, China blew up the biggest real estate bubble in human history, and
now they've they've got insane amounts of debt and a bunch of really shoddy construction
that's never really going to you know, generate cash blow of any kind.
You probably watched those Peter Zion videos, right, but I watched a few
of them. Yeah, yeah. His latest one on China is absolutely apoccalyptic.
You know, he says that the demographics are terminal for China. You
know, they've they've flipped their you know, they're they're demographic pyramid upside down,
so they have no more new young workers in the pipeline are virtually done,
and huge numbers of old people that have to be supported, and Chinese
civilization is basically over. I mean, that suggist of what he's saying.
He's saying, it's it's so bad that there won't even be a China as
we think of it by twenty thirty five or twenty forty. And you know
that's a demographic description of society and collapse. So we've got a you know,
a short term debt bubble blowing up on them right now. So it
could be that the debt bubble blows up and they fight that for a couple
of years and then they tip over into this demographic abyss that they never recover
from something. Yeah, it's it's potentially a bigger story than just Oh,
they borrowed too much for money for real on their real estate, and now
they're going to have a bigger recession. Could be much worse than that for
China. And it's not clear what that does to the global economy because they,
you know, they were the manufacturing floor. Oh, the globalized system.
And what are we going to do without all that cheat Chinese crap at
Walmart? You know, I don't know how we'll get by. I don't
know. This could be hey, retail apocalypse for the US. Although they're
shifting all the production to Vietnam. You go into clothing stores now, I
guess clothing is the easiest thing to switch over there. It's all from Vietnam,
Malaysia, India. You don't see a lot of Chinese clothing anymore.
I think that's where the electronics. We know that Apple is trying to switch
their supply chain over to India. That's a little easier set than done because
their infrastructure is so lacking there. No, I think it's indicative of Russia's
collapsing. All right, they are collapsing. I mean, look, this
war is bleak. You know, these wars that total wars that go on
and on for month after month are inflationary, and they are you know,
they're injurious to the social societal cohesion. And Russia's in like big trouble now,
Like I don't know if you can believe half the YouTube's saying that Ukraine
is winning, but you know, it's been almost two years. So the
fact that they didn't knock off a second rate army within a month is indicative
of problems for Russia. And they had hundreds of thousands of people kill,
brain drain, societal flight. Ukraine had it too. I mean, there's
in Florida, you know, the second most popular language is not going to
be Spanish since it's going to be Russian, and the third most popular will
be Ukrainian, you know, I mean, that's how many people were getting
in here. So all of this portends for a major disaster for the West.
And then energy man, we go back to energy. It's like the
ev revolution isn't going to save us in time? Right, Well, it
was never gonna save us. Save us, I mean, electric cars are
much more fun to drive, so they were you know, we're going to
have a more fun We're gonna have more fun driving going forward. You don't.
Actually electric cars are kind of like fanol gasoline. Yeah, it doesn't
actually use less energy to put fanol in your gas tank because it takes a
lot of energy to make ethanol. You know, you don't actually save Anderson,
Is there anything? Yeah? Yeah, and electric cars. To drive
an electric car uses less energy except that you're probably charging it from a coal
coal fire power plant and the batteries take immense amounts of energy to create.
So you got to drive your electric car for eight years before the Lions Cross
and you're actually saving anything. So you know, they were never going to
save us. But they are much cooler technology, So I you know,
I see why they're they're spreading and I totally want one. But you know,
a lot of the green stuff that we're doing now, it is either
we're going to take a really long time to pay off, or we'll never
pay off at all like offictional winds. You know, that's that's an idea
of the whales. Yeah, let's just let's and you know, we'll kill
the eagles if we put them in the playing stage, and then now out
west, and we'll kill the whales if we put them off the Atlantic coast.
So I think that it could easily be that wind power just goes away.
You're pretty soon. That's that's a bold state, might I know,
but I think that's likely. I think that's likely. Hey, yeah,
so we agree recessions on the way. Oh, by the way, you
mentioned here credit card losses spiking, and you know, savings rates now negative,
even foreclosures or going up. There's still at his story low rates,
but foreclosures are going up, although I don't think they're ever going to foreclose
like they did in the good old days during the GFC. But all these
things kind of point to a recession and in all likelihood of bear market in
the stock market. Right. One of the things that kept us out of
recession so far was that thing called excess savings, which is basically, you
know, we didn't go anywhere for two years, so our bank accounts grew
because the government we just cash our stimmy checks and stayed home and watch Netflix,
and so we had a lot of extra money in the bank. Well
that's being spent. The bottom forty percent of the economy blew through their excess
savings six months ago, and they're steeply in negative excess savings now. The
middle forty went zero or went negative just recently, and the top twenty percent
of the economy in terms of wealth is headed for zero fact by that measure,
by the excess savings measures. So that's all gone, you know,
that money has disappeared. Meanwhile, credit card debt is expanding like crazy,
and student loan payments kick in shortly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, So
you've got people who are already strapped, they already spent their savings trying to
maintain their lifestyles, and now they've got to start paying on their credit cards.
So that's that's a recipe for plunging consumer spending. So we'll see if
that plays out that way in twenty twenty four. But it doesn't seem like
there's any more drivers for consumer spending going forward because other than wages, which
is not nothing. You know, these these unionized workers who are suddenly making
ten percent more a year. We'll probably spend some of that, but they're
not a very big part of the economy yet, you know, privately laid
off. Yeah, well, private sector for this to pay for the wage
increase. Yeah that too. Yeah, it's it's it's possible that we'll accelerate
automation. These big companies are going all right, you know, well,
we'll give you that forty percent raise of four years, but meanwhile, meat,
your meats, your replacement, really don't go you won't like what you
see. Yeah, so it could well be that that, you know,
the trend that puts money more money in people's pockets right now accelerates the trends
of people being laid off going forward. You know, let's see it the
touch. That's a excellent point too, John. Remember the fight for fifteen
when all these states bumped up the McDonald's fast food pay to fifteen an hour.
Do you remember what happened right after? We saw the explosion of kiosks
where people just ordered and because the cost of capital was so low and the
cost of labor differential was so high that it made sense to invest in these
kiosks and get rid of the cashiers, you know, just dumped them,
right, well, that would happen. Yeah, the food service and like
Uber, the sharing economy had become the unofficial social safety net for the United
States. Basically, you you got fired and you immediately started driving for Uber,
or you got a job at some fast food place or a restaurant or
whatever. And now those jobs are being automated away. I mean, you
know, self driving cars are still a litle way, but they literally have
some of them on the road, right. Yeah, they're going too well,
but this is reality. Yeah, so so five years from now,
most deliveries will probably be by self driving cars or drones. Yeah. And
in restaurants, a huge amount of what happens it now by with people is
going to be done by various kinds of robots and yeah, things like that.
Let be the burger. You can flip like a thousand hamburgers an hour
and and put bonds on him and two two beef patties, old cheese special
sauce on a sesame seed. But he does all that. Flippy, you
know, you don't need. All we need is somebody who, like when
Flippy drops something by accident, pick it up off the floor and clean it
off and put it back in the Flippy's hopper to use it for another sandwich,
right yeah, yeah, So which means there's a huge societal thing coming
at some point where we got to figure out why, Okay, if that's
not the social safety net anymore, and what is, you know, and
then then we'll be discussing a UBI. I don't know what I think it
is in the social safety net. I think it's like send them off to
Crimea to fight for CRIMEA. That's the safe social safety Yeah, it's another
war, right, that's I mean, that's the standard empire strategies. You
create what they call a reserve army of the unemployed. Yeah, and Bluke,
we're going to starve. And you say, you know, three come
on in the military. Three free meals a day and lots of exercise and
you get to wear a uniform. Chicks love and in the uniform and uh.
And that's where the army comes from. Because you're you're not going to
get middle class kids to volunteer to go to some shipthol like PRIMEA or someplace.
No way, that is never going to happen, which is that's in
part why the military is falling so short of its recruitment targets right now.
That the wolkeness is the other part. You know, you also aren't going
to get many guys to join a military where part of the job is to
march around with a pride flag, you know, with you know, all
all due respect to wreck everybody on every side of the social space of it
not what the army is about. It's to break things and kill people,
exactly, this is the army. So it has to you know, outreach
to Disanfrance shows minorities here. Come on, No, it really is not
a social program and it's you know it and this is very non PC.
But the military has to have a male culture because large scale violence is basically
a guy thing, you know, it's just what we're programmed for that.
And if you're going to have a good army, it's got to be of
guys for guys. And that doesn't mean there can't be lots of women in
the military. It's just means that they have to, you know, be
one of the boys. They've got to be able to hang with with bros.
You know, that's just how its culture. It's a male culture of
aggression, dominance and and you know, basically using violent means to achieve a
common goal. Yeah, and that's why, or may not be good for
society as a whole, but that's what keeps the army going. It's like,
and then when they're in the thick of battle, they don't are about
like, oh, well, we got to get the flag up on that
hill. It's their brothers. They got to save their brothers. That's why
they're doing it, you know. So man, it is so inculcated and
so socially programmed into males when they go to the army. Luckily we still
have the South, so the South will hopefully save us, where gun culture
is alive and macho is good and well, you know, it could be
that that's part of the plan, is to get as many guys from the
South to join the army and then go get killed and depopulate the most conservative
part of the country. That that could be the the less plan for the
moment, We'll have to say, you know, they've done worse than this.
Hey, so so our favorite Democrat. I don't know if assassination attempt
is too great, but it seems like somebody with guns and a lot of
AMMO tried to cross pa Ads with RFK Jr. And but the good news
is the Biden administration still won't give him Secret Service protection, you know.
And okay, two things. We still haven't heard that guy's story, right
do we know it? While you know when he was there, we don't
need to hear his story to know his story. He's a lone gunman.
He probably is an anarchist. He probably hates the Kennedy family because of all
the privilege, and and he probably is a little insane as well. I
mean, when you say we haven't heard his interview yet or his statements a
winder, I holtely not. You think he's related to Ray Epps. You
know, I think he's related to the guy that shot James Garfield, right,
that anarchist, nut job disgrunt. Come to think of it, that
kind of applies to Lee Harvey Oswald too. He was you know, he
was a misfit in the army. He was no good. I mean,
he might have had some intelligence connections, but don't hold that against him.
And by the way, did you hear that theory? Well, the magic
bullet theory was that the bullet hit Kennedy went all these different directions and then
went into Connolly because they found this pristine bullet on Connolly's stretcher. Well,
the secret Service agent who found that magic bullet said it was with JFK.
He didn't want it to get misplaced, in other words, rabbit holed,
so he put it he himself put it on John Connolly, who was then
the governor's shoot sorry about this, who was the governor's the governor of Texas
who really didn't want to be in that car and fought tooth and nail to
not have to get in the car with l with JFK for some reason.
But in any event, the bullet was found on his aretcher, but it
really was on kennedy stretcher, which thereby makes the whole magic bullet theory impossible.
I mean, hey, if I was a Kennedy, I think I'd
change my name and I would keep a lower profile, don't you. Well,
okay, you know, you know we know the CIA killed JFK.
I mean, that's that is a done deal. No need even to debate
it anymore. That's just a giver. Carlton said, though, so what
did RFK junior? RFKA didn't. But but anyhow, with RFK, Biden
is not giving him secret Service protection because he doesn't want to do anything to
help a guy who might cost him the election. But what what do you
think it would do to Biden's popularity if he refused protection to RFK Junior and
then RFK Junior got assassinated. It seems like that would be the worst political
outcome that Joe Biden can imagine, Well, Joe Biden's handlers can imagine.
Joden I don't think he imagines anything anymore. But so there, it seems
like they're making a really big political mistake or taking a big political risk by
not giving secret Service help to OURFK Jr. But that's just a great my
opinion strategic point, you know. Agreed, all right. Finally, even
though we don't talk about politics because this is a family show. The Wappo
Washington Post poll gave Trump a ten percent lead over Biden, and then they
said, oops, flawed methodology doesn't count. We take it back. Well,
they published the research, the numbers and everything, but the headline said
this is an outlier, you know, so they disavowed their own methodology and
results in the article where they reported on those results. But yeah, it
said, well, and apparently they've had one other one like that. Just
recently too, they had another ten percent Trump lead in a poll over Biden.
So there's a point at which, if you get enough of these,
they stopped being outliers and they start being the central conclusion of polling. So
we'll see. But yeah, most polls haveing a much closer election when it's
head to head, which means Trump wins big because he doesn't have to win
the popular vote. He just has to win in enough swing states, and
if he gets close in the popular vote, he probably wins those swing states.
So you know, a fifty to fifty tie between Biden and Trump means
Trump wins easily in the electoral college. Correct my memory of this quote,
I don't remember if it was Lennon who said it or if it was Stalin.
But it's not who It's not who cast the votes that count, it's
who counts the votes. Well, yeah, I mean that's I think the
establishment in the US kind of has taken that to heart, right, So
what one funny about this is that, you know, the Republicans feel like
they got ripped off because the Democrats did a lot of things that Republicans didn't
do, like vote harvesting and stuff like mail in ballots. So now the
Republicans are saying, well, if these are the rules, we're going to
do it too, elomin age. Yeah, because and you know they'll be
very good at it too, because the Republican So they've got a lot of
boots on the ground out there, and a lot a lot of magatromp people,
a lot of people, yeah, because they feel like they got ripped
on. So this is their chance to steal the election back now, and
which means, you know, old old folks homes are going to be crawling
with competing political operatives now, you know, going, missus Smith here,
let me help you sign this voting ticket here, you know. And and
so we're going to see this deluge. This will be the highest turnout of
the election ever because every vote will be stolen in some way. Yeah,
everybody is going to vote, no matter what your body temperature is, exactly
like the room temperature, you're voting. When I first moved to Florida,
and I forget, like I passed by a nursing home, okay, a
nursing home, and there was a polling station in the nursing home, and
I'm like you know, wait, like so it's like they just set the
Alzheimer's patients up and it's like like, I'm here to vote. Oh but
you voted already. Nah, I don't remember it. I'll vote again.
You know, you get them. You just keep them voting and voting early
and often. Right, So it's so early voting and late voting, and
you know, nocturnal voting, and you've got you know, uh, what
do you call that? Necropolis voting? Right, So you got all these
interest groups, so we didn't even know we had, right, you know,
the dead. You know, they should get us saying things because they
help get us where we are today. Right, they deserve a vote.
I think the exit polls are going to be hilarious this time around too,
because you're one, you know, ten percent of the population will think they
voted for Harry Truman or something. That'll be the last name they remember from
I'll bet Harry Truman, which will be voting in this election. John,
Yeah, that's right, they'll digging him up. He was a good he
was a solid Democrat vote that they can definitely count on. Right. Oh
god, you know we're laughing about this, but this this is the adam
of democracies. Oh yeah, you know, John, can you name another
country where the head dictator locks up the political opposition in jail or you know,
basically trust them. It does show trials for crimes, both real and
imagine. Yeah, another country that might do that, like that country that
attacked Ukraine. They might be doing it in Brazil. They're having a show
trial now. I mean, this is the new trend is just don't debate
your opposition, indict them. Yeah, we're in good company now, you
know. And anur republic bath Yeah, Banana republics all. You know,
all the popular countries are Banana republic these days. So yeah, it's got
a you know. Hey, so make sure you go over to John's substack.
It's Robeo dot substack dot com. Link in the show notes our site
Financial Survival Network dot com. We'll have a link to John's site there as
well, and you can sign up for your free newsletter. John always a
pleasure. We'll talk to you in a couple of weeks. Thanks, Carry,
Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's
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