Okay, the FED is going to have to use pretty soon, which normally
would be good for bitcoin. And we've got the you know that's going to
cause inflation, which also would be good for bitcoins. Yeah, we've got
the ztfs coming online. And you know, we have to remember cryptos,
Bitcoin and the theireum at least together or not that big of a market.
If you take the whole crypto of universe, it's pretty good size, but
for the two main coins, it's not that big. So if a lot
of generalists money flows into these ETFs and they have to buy, I don't
want to say physical Bitcoin and physical ethereum, because that's not how that works.
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and welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network on your
earths. Carrie Lutz, Well John Rabino's with us. John, We've had
conversations about gold and silver. You know, it's almost thirteen years now,
if you could believe it, and it's always been kind of the same conversation,
except today, right, hey, Jerry. Yeah, Well, there's
been some thrills and chills in the precious metals market. In the last week,
gold finished an all time monthly high, and overnight just last night it
broke through twenty one hundred before getting smacked back down. So basically now it's
a question of support and resistance because traders humans like big round numbers, so
we tend to cluster for our buying and selling at the big round numbers.
And so for over the past three or so years, gold has gotten up
to two thousand, which is the biggest of big round numbers in gold's history,
and each time it's gotten smacked back down because so many sales came in.
And I posted a thing on substack a while ago about the gold resistance
is finite, and the you know, the idea is that eventually, if
you keep trying the big round number where there's resistance, eventually you soak up
all the selling and then you could break through and then the old resistance becomes
support. So that's what we got to see next with gold was you know,
well, whether it drops back down to two thousand and then bounces off
of that on its way up to twenty one or twenty two hundred, and
if that's true that happens, then we're in a boole market because what used
to be resistance is support, and there's no real resistance before twenty five hundred
in terms of psychologically important big round numbers. So it'll be a hell of
a ride if that happens, and we could find out this week, you
know at least, or actually we could find out today gold was getting whack
today. And if it drops the two thousand, bounces off, then my
thesis is supported and we should expect a nice long run from there. Well,
I'm going to go out, I'm going to go out on the line
and say, this is two thousand and eleven on steroids. Remember twenty eleven,
twenty eleven in the years that followed were life changing experiences for me.
So yeah, I remember twenty eleven definitely. Everything that happened then is Look,
I knew when the crash hit, and it really hit and gold went
down under one thousand, that's when I was buying and I was buying silver
six to eight dollars an ounce, and I never bought any more after that.
A couple of little bits here and there. I bought some war nickels,
just to prove that you could buy silver for less than its melt value,
because the war nickels at the time, those were nickels produced during World
War II two. They didn't have any copper nickel, and then they just
had silver and they're thirty five percent silver, and they were selling below their
mouth value. And I just did that to prove that it could be done.
Two hundred bucks worth on eBay. But this seems to me. Now
I could be wrong, but I think this is we're getting to the backup
the truck moment. I think we will have a pullback here and they'll drive
it below two thousand, so everybody will say a goal, that faked us
out again, another head fake, and that's when it goes. And maybe
eighteen hundred is that bottom. I don't know. Well, yeah, there
are macro reasons why that's very reasonable, and that is because we're heading into
a recession right now. You know, people were a little bit the third
quarter GDP ratings were really strong. They were like five percent annualized growth,
and then after that every macro indicator that you can think, and a bunch
that you probably have never heard of before all turn negative. And so so
now we're probably into recession. And the way that works with the equities markets
is they tend to have a relief rally when the FED stops tightening. But
then we see why the Fed stop tightening, Corporate profits plunged, stocks plunge,
and then the FED starts easing and stocks really drop during the first the
time of the first couple of easons. So you know, if that's the
first half of the next year that we're looking at, then that's probably bad
for precious metals. They don't get sucked down with everything else. So we
could indeed see eighteen hundred dollars again, but that would be a prelude to
the FED having to panic cut and the like you said, it's twenty eleven
on steroids, because same basic macro set up, but the numbers are all
exponentially worse. So everything that hit in two thousand and eight, two thousand
and nine ten to panic the FED into using will be much much worse this
time around. The banks will get hit harder, real estate will will just
collapse, and that's what looks like is happening now. Junk bonds forget it,
you know, anything else you could think of will be heading south in
a hurry. So that's that's very possible. And if it happens, you
want to be short the stock market, and then you want to be buying
precious metals when it gets down into like you said, eighteen or change something
like that. And so one theory, and I don't remember if you and
I explored it or not, is that gold. Actually the price goes up
when interest rates go up interestingly enough, because banks make loans generally when they
get more money, and when the interest rates were low and they got there
guaranteed one percent from the Fed parking their excess reserves, there no incentive to
make loans, no growth of the monetary supply. Now, on the other
hand, we know that the velocity of money has been in the pits,
but the base m zero skyrocketed from the pandemic, and the banks are like,
you know, besides the banks that are going out of business, the
other banks, the majors are sitting on tons and tons of cash and they're
still I don't know about you, I'm still getting credit card offers and they're
still making car loans less mortgage is evidently, but that's a function of demand,
not a function of supply. So will higher rates lead to higher gold
prices? So far the answer is yes. Well, the relationship between goal
and the interest rates depends on why interest rates are moving. It can work
either way. Actually, because in nineteen seventies interest rates went up and gold
went up, but interst rates were going up. They were actually both going
up because inflation was running out of control, and so that was gold moving
in response to inflation, not interest rates. And then post Great Recession,
interest rates went down and continued to go down for a really long time,
but gold went up for a while, went up into you know, it
peaked and I think twenty eleven, and it could be twenty twelve, right,
it was nineteen hundred and change right around there, but interest rates had
been falling for quite a while. Oh, June of twenty eleven, I
think, yeah, Okay, in September as I literally started doing this full
time, expecting gold to take off to the moon, and three months later
it had peaked. So I remember that those lessons only too well. So
yeah, and then so after twenty eleven, interest rates can continued to fall,
but gold fell too because everybody perceived that we might be in a depression,
and you know, the FED was going to have no choice but to
ease like crazy, and so falling interest rates were good for gold in that
case. So I don't think it's a hard and fast rule, but I
think that in the coming few years, the FED might have to ease really
aggressively and they might have to go back to chewe want steroids and push interest
rates down because the economy is imploding, and that would probably be really good
for gold and silver. So they would benefit from falling interest rates and from
the perception that eventually that's going to cause inflation, and from the perception that
were bankrupt financially and there's no choice but to devalue the dollar on a massive
scale. You know, it could be a perfect storm for gold at some
point in the not too distant future. And that's that's what we want to
be in this market for you know this, Oh it's going to go to
twenty five hundred dollars an ounce, that's fine, that's okay, But it's
the the discontinuity with gold and silver and the dollar that I think is going
to be really interesting when when you know we have the monetary reset and all
of a sudden, goald is ten thousand dollars an ounce. That's that's what
we're holding on for, and I think we're closer to that than we've ever
been reached. More agreed, agreed, definitely, Hey not to mention Bitcoin's
back over forty thousand, that's a surprise to me. But is it purely
a result of the ETFs or is this flight to perceived safety? Is bitcoin
really a safe even asset now? Well, we might already be having the
perfect store for bitcoin because we've got the okay, the FED is going to
have to use pretty soon, which normally would be good for bitcoin, and
we've got the you know that's going to cause inflation, which also would be
good for bitcoins. And we've got the ETFs coming online. And you know,
we have to remember cryptos, Bitcoin and the Faerium, at least together,
are not that big of a market. If you take the whole crypto
universe, it's pretty good size, but for the two main coins, it's
not that big. So if a lot of generalist money flows into these ETFs,
and they have to buy I don't want to say physical bitcoin and physical
ethereum because that's not how that works, but they have to load up on
bitcoin and ethereum. It could be that that is a significant new source of
the demand that sends these guys up dramatically, and maybe they're anticipating that this
might be the crypto market program humming the generalist cash that comes in, so,
you know, so we don't know where it tops out, but right
now it looks very positive for cryptos because of these because you know the immediacy
of these of the ETFs that are coming along. Yeah, it could make
all the difference and probably makes it very easy to manipulate because there has to
be a lag time before tw between when you buy the crypto and when the
trade actually goes through with a crypto, your dollars get converted to crypto right
in the ETF. I don't know how that's going to play out. They're
sort of an end so theoretically they keep buying more and more crypto as more
funds flow into the fund. Right, how some atfs work is that they
have a net asset value and when demand goes up and that pushes the price
of the ETF's stock up above the net asset value. They sell more shares
and then go out and buy at basically net asset value, and that increases,
you know, marginally persistent net asset value. So when when the underlying
asset is very popular, that's when these ETFs grow, and that's when they
take more of the underlying asset off the market. So what there's a good
chance of happening is that people will buy these ETFs without looking at the net
asset value. They'll be like, okay, here's an ETF where I can
buy cryptos with a mouse click. Let me buy some. Yeah, And
then the ETF goes to a twenty percent premium over net asset value, and
then they issue a bunch of new shares, use the proceeds to buy a
bunch more ethereum and bitcoin, and that pushes the price up even further.
So you get kind of a pertetual motion machine until people figure out that hey,
this thing is thirty percent over net acid value. That's not a good
deal, you know, and they's out about it. Yeah, it's it's
going to be interesting to see how these things function and what effect they have
and you know, there's just so many other things going on that affect crypto
and perceptions larger markets for it. So we're going to have to see,
what about what's going on in the Middle East. They're like shooting missiles that
are ships, not hitting them, but they're hitting commercial ships. Yeah,
now we have to see just how evil the people running the US are.
And you know, we know they're they're somewhere on the evil scale, but
if they are way out there on the blood thirsty psychopath side, then basically
they're going to stage a false flag attack like I did for Korea and like
it is for Vietnam. Well, they blow up one of their ships and
say, oh my god, Iran just new jar ship, you know,
something like that, and they're going to use that. Yes, they're going
to use that to get into this war that they really want, because I
think there are you know, more than a few people in the US government
who would love a US, a US Israeli alliance that goes out there and
destroys all our perceived enemies in the Middle East, just you know, one
one big year of knockdown, drag out technological warfare, and we are in
Tehran, you know, we take it over. Iran got all their oil,
and we've wiped out everybody else who looks like they're in our way Exteria,
And you know, wouldn't be a surprised if that's something that they're planning.
So ray that there's somebody who's saying in the room with these guys and
says, no, you can't do that. There's no sane people left in
DC. They've all been deported in other parts. Yeah, but but anyhow
so so we you know, we don't know at this point. When the
government says our ships are being fired on, we honestly don't know what's happening
because it might be real, or it might be made up, or it
might be you know, they shot one little homemade missile and we're going to
blow up a battleship of ours to attend there was a major league Iran and
high tech missile STYMP. We'll see, you know. We we can't trust
the people in charge, so we should not. So really what they say,
So whatever happens out there, verify, find out if there's anybody out
there who's a whistleblower who's willing to come forward and talk about this. Yeah,
well, I guess we're going to find out to fairly soon what the
deal is here, because it looks like it's heating up for sure, and
that combined with next year being a recession year, they need to do something.
Huh, Well, it's not just a recession year, it's an election
year. Yeah, So if you can't run on the economy, you start
a war and or or have some other kind of big scandal. You know,
it could be that they like the old saying goes I think it was
Hughey Huey Long in Louisiana. He used to say, yeah, you know,
if you want to get me, you have to catch me with a
dead girl or a live boy or something like that. So maybe a scandal
at that level that they use against the Republican nominee a week before the election,
and that that satisfies them. They don't feel like they need a war
after all. So we'll see. But you know, you combine a big
recession with a presidential election with a bunch of psychos run away show, and
basically anything could happen. So oh my god, Okay, so what about
this election we got. You think RFK is going to be in it to
the end. You know what RFK is has made it a three million raise,
and which adds a really interesting flavor to this because this is you know,
RFK is in the high teens, low twenties right now in polling,
and this is before debates. But if you know, you've heard RFK speak,
right, So what happens when he's standing next to Biden on a stage
and they're discussing world affairs and public policy? I mean, you know he
might you never know which debates how they're going to go, but it's completely
possible that RFK holds his own with Trump because they were talking about different things
and obliterates Biden. So they come out of it, you know, with
a two man race, let's say. And at that at that point,
Biden has to quote unquote have a health emergency and then then then Gavin Newsom
has to step up. And you know, if that happens with a couple
of months before the election, and boy, that's going to be a unique
thing. We've never had that happen before. That's like what happened in New
Jersey. I remember what was his name. They began with a t an
Italian guy, the senator. He got indicted and then Frank Lautenberg just jumped
into his position and won, So there's precedent for it, but not at
a national level. But hey, what about peer? Let me interrupt,
because the one more thing about this election thing is, you know, it's
possible that Trump gets convicted of something while all of this is going on.
So you got a convicted felon somebody who is, you know, one one
exciting moment away from a stroke, and RFK, who doesn't need an have
Secret Service protection, very candidated it to attempts. I mean, they won't
do it. Yeah, So this this could be, you know, an
absolutely unique election with stuff going on that has never happened before and hopefully it
will never happen again. Okay, so what about the debate with Gavin Newsom
and DeSantis. It looked like I didn't watch the debate. I don't watch
them because but this one actually looked like a real debate, didn't it.
Well, I mean, this has two sitting governors of major states are arguing
about stuff, which I think is just inherently interesting because they have two different
philosophies of governance, two sets of policies and everything. So I didn't watch
the debate either, but I think because of the nature of the policies that
are being debated that could possibly have been interesting. I don't know, you
know, they didn't get very good reviews, and there was you know,
there was sort of consensus on the news sites that I was looking at,
in other words, the legit news sites, not the cable news guys that
neither either governor won. You know, they both scored some points, neither
one of them. It looked exactly presidential, but it would. You know,
it was a non event from a presidential campaign standpoint, but it was
probably better than the Republican debates that they've had so far. Yeah, definitely.
You know, still my favorite guy is still the Baker Ramaswami as far
as political mediator goes. He's like the most fun guy to watch. And
who knows, he's so young now that he could easily be like chief of
staff or a president or something like that and then come back and run with
a little bit of government experience. And actually he might he might actually be
a president at some point, which at this point I think would be cool.
You know, it won't happen this time around, but sometime while you
and I are still doing interviews, carry. I think it's complete possible that
we have a president around the slummage. Yeah, well, they're all actors,
you know. So Trump was the only real candidate because there was no
grooming, There was no you know, positioning, marketing. Like remember that
movie The Selling of the President I think it was. It was a book
about forty fifty years ago, and basically they sell the president like they sell
dog food, you know, only absolutely the dog food is probably more beneficial.
Well, you know, you could make the case that Trump is just
a higher level marketer so that it doesn't look like there's marketing going on.
You know, he's he's the guy with no filder who says what he thinks
he's gonna you know, he makes all these really grandiose promises. That could
be a brand, you know, it could be a bought out brand,
although I actually don't think so. I think Trump literally doesn't have a filter,
yeah, and actually is saying what he thinks and in any given moment,
you know. So, but yeah, you know, it could be
that he's a convicted fellon who gets elected presidently, which that alone, you
know, leave all the other stuff aside. That right there is pretty unique.
Can you know, so twenty twenty four shaping up as a existentially threatening
year that if it doesn't involve the nuclear war, might be just hilarious.
You know, these just might be a lot of fun to watch. So
we'll say, oh, remember Doctor strange Love was funny too, you know.
Well, hen Henry just injuryus died. So that's that's another eerie kind
of coincidence there, that the guy who Doctor Strangelove was a mobled after just
just kicked. Yeah, that's right. I forgot how he would say after
that. So hey, yeah, well we won't have any more entertaining movies
like that again. We just can't laugh about the bomb anymore. It's just
not funny anymore now that so many countries have it. Well, I think
we'll leave it at that. Make sure you go over to John's work at
Robino dot substack dot com link in the show notes below and the sign up
for every newsletter Financial Survival Network dot com. I'm sure we'll have lots more
to talk about in two weeks. John, you be well and we will
talk soon. Thanks carriy see yah, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
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