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Okay, the FED is going to
have to use pretty soon, which normally

2
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would be good for bitcoin. And
we've got the you know that's going to

3
00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,839
cause inflation, which also would be
good for bitcoins. Yeah, we've got

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00:00:10,839 --> 00:00:14,720
the ztfs coming online. And you
know, we have to remember cryptos,

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Bitcoin and the theireum at least together
or not that big of a market.

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If you take the whole crypto of
universe, it's pretty good size, but

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for the two main coins, it's
not that big. So if a lot

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of generalists money flows into these ETFs
and they have to buy, I don't

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want to say physical Bitcoin and physical
ethereum, because that's not how that works.

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You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
Network, where you get valuable information

11
00:00:39,799 --> 00:00:45,159
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12
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13
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and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,

14
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and welcome you are listening to and
watching the Financial Survival Network on your

15
00:01:06,359 --> 00:01:11,439
earths. Carrie Lutz, Well John
Rabino's with us. John, We've had

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conversations about gold and silver. You
know, it's almost thirteen years now,

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if you could believe it, and
it's always been kind of the same conversation,

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except today, right, hey,
Jerry. Yeah, Well, there's

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been some thrills and chills in the
precious metals market. In the last week,

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gold finished an all time monthly high, and overnight just last night it

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broke through twenty one hundred before getting
smacked back down. So basically now it's

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a question of support and resistance because
traders humans like big round numbers, so

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we tend to cluster for our buying
and selling at the big round numbers.

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And so for over the past three
or so years, gold has gotten up

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to two thousand, which is the
biggest of big round numbers in gold's history,

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and each time it's gotten smacked back
down because so many sales came in.

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And I posted a thing on substack
a while ago about the gold resistance

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is finite, and the you know, the idea is that eventually, if

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you keep trying the big round number
where there's resistance, eventually you soak up

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all the selling and then you could
break through and then the old resistance becomes

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support. So that's what we got
to see next with gold was you know,

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well, whether it drops back down
to two thousand and then bounces off

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of that on its way up to
twenty one or twenty two hundred, and

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if that's true that happens, then
we're in a boole market because what used

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to be resistance is support, and
there's no real resistance before twenty five hundred

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in terms of psychologically important big round
numbers. So it'll be a hell of

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a ride if that happens, and
we could find out this week, you

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know at least, or actually we
could find out today gold was getting whack

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today. And if it drops the
two thousand, bounces off, then my

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thesis is supported and we should expect
a nice long run from there. Well,

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I'm going to go out, I'm
going to go out on the line

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and say, this is two thousand
and eleven on steroids. Remember twenty eleven,

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twenty eleven in the years that followed
were life changing experiences for me.

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So yeah, I remember twenty eleven
definitely. Everything that happened then is Look,

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I knew when the crash hit,
and it really hit and gold went

46
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down under one thousand, that's when
I was buying and I was buying silver

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six to eight dollars an ounce,
and I never bought any more after that.

48
00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,800
A couple of little bits here and
there. I bought some war nickels,

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00:03:49,879 --> 00:03:54,000
just to prove that you could buy
silver for less than its melt value,

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because the war nickels at the time, those were nickels produced during World

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War II two. They didn't have
any copper nickel, and then they just

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had silver and they're thirty five percent
silver, and they were selling below their

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mouth value. And I just did
that to prove that it could be done.

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Two hundred bucks worth on eBay.
But this seems to me. Now

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I could be wrong, but I
think this is we're getting to the backup

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the truck moment. I think we
will have a pullback here and they'll drive

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it below two thousand, so everybody
will say a goal, that faked us

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out again, another head fake,
and that's when it goes. And maybe

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eighteen hundred is that bottom. I
don't know. Well, yeah, there

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are macro reasons why that's very reasonable, and that is because we're heading into

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a recession right now. You know, people were a little bit the third

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quarter GDP ratings were really strong.
They were like five percent annualized growth,

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and then after that every macro indicator
that you can think, and a bunch

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that you probably have never heard of
before all turn negative. And so so

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now we're probably into recession. And
the way that works with the equities markets

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is they tend to have a relief
rally when the FED stops tightening. But

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then we see why the Fed stop
tightening, Corporate profits plunged, stocks plunge,

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and then the FED starts easing and
stocks really drop during the first the

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time of the first couple of easons. So you know, if that's the

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first half of the next year that
we're looking at, then that's probably bad

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for precious metals. They don't get
sucked down with everything else. So we

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could indeed see eighteen hundred dollars again, but that would be a prelude to

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the FED having to panic cut and
the like you said, it's twenty eleven

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on steroids, because same basic macro
set up, but the numbers are all

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exponentially worse. So everything that hit
in two thousand and eight, two thousand

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and nine ten to panic the FED
into using will be much much worse this

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time around. The banks will get
hit harder, real estate will will just

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collapse, and that's what looks like
is happening now. Junk bonds forget it,

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you know, anything else you could
think of will be heading south in

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a hurry. So that's that's very
possible. And if it happens, you

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want to be short the stock market, and then you want to be buying

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precious metals when it gets down into
like you said, eighteen or change something

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like that. And so one theory, and I don't remember if you and

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I explored it or not, is
that gold. Actually the price goes up

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when interest rates go up interestingly enough, because banks make loans generally when they

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get more money, and when the
interest rates were low and they got there

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guaranteed one percent from the Fed parking
their excess reserves, there no incentive to

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make loans, no growth of the
monetary supply. Now, on the other

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hand, we know that the velocity
of money has been in the pits,

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but the base m zero skyrocketed from
the pandemic, and the banks are like,

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you know, besides the banks that
are going out of business, the

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other banks, the majors are sitting
on tons and tons of cash and they're

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still I don't know about you,
I'm still getting credit card offers and they're

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still making car loans less mortgage is
evidently, but that's a function of demand,

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not a function of supply. So
will higher rates lead to higher gold

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prices? So far the answer is
yes. Well, the relationship between goal

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and the interest rates depends on why
interest rates are moving. It can work

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00:08:00,759 --> 00:08:05,040
either way. Actually, because in
nineteen seventies interest rates went up and gold

99
00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,439
went up, but interst rates were
going up. They were actually both going

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00:08:07,519 --> 00:08:13,839
up because inflation was running out of
control, and so that was gold moving

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00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:20,199
in response to inflation, not interest
rates. And then post Great Recession,

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interest rates went down and continued to
go down for a really long time,

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but gold went up for a while, went up into you know, it

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peaked and I think twenty eleven,
and it could be twenty twelve, right,

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it was nineteen hundred and change right
around there, but interest rates had

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been falling for quite a while.
Oh, June of twenty eleven, I

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think, yeah, Okay, in
September as I literally started doing this full

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time, expecting gold to take off
to the moon, and three months later

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it had peaked. So I remember
that those lessons only too well. So

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yeah, and then so after twenty
eleven, interest rates can continued to fall,

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but gold fell too because everybody perceived
that we might be in a depression,

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00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,240
and you know, the FED was
going to have no choice but to

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ease like crazy, and so falling
interest rates were good for gold in that

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case. So I don't think it's
a hard and fast rule, but I

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think that in the coming few years, the FED might have to ease really

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aggressively and they might have to go
back to chewe want steroids and push interest

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rates down because the economy is imploding, and that would probably be really good

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for gold and silver. So they
would benefit from falling interest rates and from

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the perception that eventually that's going to
cause inflation, and from the perception that

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were bankrupt financially and there's no choice
but to devalue the dollar on a massive

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scale. You know, it could
be a perfect storm for gold at some

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point in the not too distant future. And that's that's what we want to

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be in this market for you know
this, Oh it's going to go to

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twenty five hundred dollars an ounce,
that's fine, that's okay, But it's

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the the discontinuity with gold and silver
and the dollar that I think is going

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to be really interesting when when you
know we have the monetary reset and all

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of a sudden, goald is ten
thousand dollars an ounce. That's that's what

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we're holding on for, and I
think we're closer to that than we've ever

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been reached. More agreed, agreed, definitely, Hey not to mention Bitcoin's

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00:10:22,919 --> 00:10:28,559
back over forty thousand, that's a
surprise to me. But is it purely

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a result of the ETFs or is
this flight to perceived safety? Is bitcoin

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really a safe even asset now?
Well, we might already be having the

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perfect store for bitcoin because we've got
the okay, the FED is going to

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have to use pretty soon, which
normally would be good for bitcoin, and

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we've got the you know that's going
to cause inflation, which also would be

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good for bitcoins. And we've got
the ETFs coming online. And you know,

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we have to remember cryptos, Bitcoin
and the Faerium, at least together,

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are not that big of a market. If you take the whole crypto

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00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,039
universe, it's pretty good size,
but for the two main coins, it's

140
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:11,000
not that big. So if a
lot of generalist money flows into these ETFs,

141
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and they have to buy I don't
want to say physical bitcoin and physical

142
00:11:15,639 --> 00:11:18,600
ethereum because that's not how that works, but they have to load up on

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00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:24,120
bitcoin and ethereum. It could be
that that is a significant new source of

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the demand that sends these guys up
dramatically, and maybe they're anticipating that this

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might be the crypto market program humming
the generalist cash that comes in, so,

146
00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:37,320
you know, so we don't know
where it tops out, but right

147
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,919
now it looks very positive for cryptos
because of these because you know the immediacy

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00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,720
of these of the ETFs that are
coming along. Yeah, it could make

149
00:11:46,799 --> 00:11:52,799
all the difference and probably makes it
very easy to manipulate because there has to

150
00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:58,080
be a lag time before tw between
when you buy the crypto and when the

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00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:03,039
trade actually goes through with a crypto, your dollars get converted to crypto right

152
00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:07,600
in the ETF. I don't know
how that's going to play out. They're

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00:12:07,639 --> 00:12:13,080
sort of an end so theoretically they
keep buying more and more crypto as more

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00:12:13,159 --> 00:12:18,720
funds flow into the fund. Right, how some atfs work is that they

155
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,039
have a net asset value and when
demand goes up and that pushes the price

156
00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:26,960
of the ETF's stock up above the
net asset value. They sell more shares

157
00:12:28,159 --> 00:12:35,559
and then go out and buy at
basically net asset value, and that increases,

158
00:12:35,639 --> 00:12:39,200
you know, marginally persistent net asset
value. So when when the underlying

159
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,559
asset is very popular, that's when
these ETFs grow, and that's when they

160
00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:48,080
take more of the underlying asset off
the market. So what there's a good

161
00:12:48,159 --> 00:12:54,000
chance of happening is that people will
buy these ETFs without looking at the net

162
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,440
asset value. They'll be like,
okay, here's an ETF where I can

163
00:12:56,480 --> 00:13:00,120
buy cryptos with a mouse click.
Let me buy some. Yeah, And

164
00:13:00,159 --> 00:13:03,679
then the ETF goes to a twenty
percent premium over net asset value, and

165
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,879
then they issue a bunch of new
shares, use the proceeds to buy a

166
00:13:07,919 --> 00:13:13,600
bunch more ethereum and bitcoin, and
that pushes the price up even further.

167
00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,399
So you get kind of a pertetual
motion machine until people figure out that hey,

168
00:13:18,399 --> 00:13:22,360
this thing is thirty percent over net
acid value. That's not a good

169
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,799
deal, you know, and they's
out about it. Yeah, it's it's

170
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:30,360
going to be interesting to see how
these things function and what effect they have

171
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:35,960
and you know, there's just so
many other things going on that affect crypto

172
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:41,039
and perceptions larger markets for it.
So we're going to have to see,

173
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,200
what about what's going on in the
Middle East. They're like shooting missiles that

174
00:13:46,279 --> 00:13:50,399
are ships, not hitting them,
but they're hitting commercial ships. Yeah,

175
00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:54,720
now we have to see just how
evil the people running the US are.

176
00:13:54,840 --> 00:14:00,080
And you know, we know they're
they're somewhere on the evil scale, but

177
00:14:00,159 --> 00:14:05,360
if they are way out there on
the blood thirsty psychopath side, then basically

178
00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:09,879
they're going to stage a false flag
attack like I did for Korea and like

179
00:14:09,919 --> 00:14:15,159
it is for Vietnam. Well,
they blow up one of their ships and

180
00:14:15,159 --> 00:14:16,720
say, oh my god, Iran
just new jar ship, you know,

181
00:14:16,759 --> 00:14:22,039
something like that, and they're going
to use that. Yes, they're going

182
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:26,279
to use that to get into this
war that they really want, because I

183
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,519
think there are you know, more
than a few people in the US government

184
00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:39,240
who would love a US, a
US Israeli alliance that goes out there and

185
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,519
destroys all our perceived enemies in the
Middle East, just you know, one

186
00:14:43,159 --> 00:14:48,879
one big year of knockdown, drag
out technological warfare, and we are in

187
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,399
Tehran, you know, we take
it over. Iran got all their oil,

188
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,799
and we've wiped out everybody else who
looks like they're in our way Exteria,

189
00:14:58,279 --> 00:15:01,159
And you know, wouldn't be a
surprised if that's something that they're planning.

190
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:07,879
So ray that there's somebody who's saying
in the room with these guys and

191
00:15:07,919 --> 00:15:11,879
says, no, you can't do
that. There's no sane people left in

192
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:18,679
DC. They've all been deported in
other parts. Yeah, but but anyhow

193
00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,480
so so we you know, we
don't know at this point. When the

194
00:15:20,519 --> 00:15:24,600
government says our ships are being fired
on, we honestly don't know what's happening

195
00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:28,879
because it might be real, or
it might be made up, or it

196
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:33,320
might be you know, they shot
one little homemade missile and we're going to

197
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,519
blow up a battleship of ours to
attend there was a major league Iran and

198
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,639
high tech missile STYMP. We'll see, you know. We we can't trust

199
00:15:41,639 --> 00:15:46,399
the people in charge, so we
should not. So really what they say,

200
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:52,799
So whatever happens out there, verify, find out if there's anybody out

201
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:56,200
there who's a whistleblower who's willing to
come forward and talk about this. Yeah,

202
00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,519
well, I guess we're going to
find out to fairly soon what the

203
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,279
deal is here, because it looks
like it's heating up for sure, and

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that combined with next year being a
recession year, they need to do something.

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Huh, Well, it's not just
a recession year, it's an election

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year. Yeah, So if you
can't run on the economy, you start

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a war and or or have some
other kind of big scandal. You know,

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it could be that they like the
old saying goes I think it was

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Hughey Huey Long in Louisiana. He
used to say, yeah, you know,

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if you want to get me,
you have to catch me with a

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dead girl or a live boy or
something like that. So maybe a scandal

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at that level that they use against
the Republican nominee a week before the election,

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and that that satisfies them. They
don't feel like they need a war

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after all. So we'll see.
But you know, you combine a big

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recession with a presidential election with a
bunch of psychos run away show, and

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basically anything could happen. So oh
my god, Okay, so what about

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this election we got. You think
RFK is going to be in it to

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the end. You know what RFK
is has made it a three million raise,

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and which adds a really interesting flavor
to this because this is you know,

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RFK is in the high teens,
low twenties right now in polling,

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and this is before debates. But
if you know, you've heard RFK speak,

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right, So what happens when he's
standing next to Biden on a stage

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and they're discussing world affairs and public
policy? I mean, you know he

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might you never know which debates how
they're going to go, but it's completely

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possible that RFK holds his own with
Trump because they were talking about different things

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and obliterates Biden. So they come
out of it, you know, with

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a two man race, let's say. And at that at that point,

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Biden has to quote unquote have a
health emergency and then then then Gavin Newsom

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has to step up. And you
know, if that happens with a couple

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of months before the election, and
boy, that's going to be a unique

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thing. We've never had that happen
before. That's like what happened in New

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Jersey. I remember what was his
name. They began with a t an

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Italian guy, the senator. He
got indicted and then Frank Lautenberg just jumped

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into his position and won, So
there's precedent for it, but not at

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a national level. But hey,
what about peer? Let me interrupt,

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because the one more thing about this
election thing is, you know, it's

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possible that Trump gets convicted of something
while all of this is going on.

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So you got a convicted felon somebody
who is, you know, one one

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exciting moment away from a stroke,
and RFK, who doesn't need an have

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Secret Service protection, very candidated it
to attempts. I mean, they won't

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do it. Yeah, So this
this could be, you know, an

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absolutely unique election with stuff going on
that has never happened before and hopefully it

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will never happen again. Okay,
so what about the debate with Gavin Newsom

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and DeSantis. It looked like I
didn't watch the debate. I don't watch

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them because but this one actually looked
like a real debate, didn't it.

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Well, I mean, this has
two sitting governors of major states are arguing

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about stuff, which I think is
just inherently interesting because they have two different

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philosophies of governance, two sets of
policies and everything. So I didn't watch

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the debate either, but I think
because of the nature of the policies that

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are being debated that could possibly have
been interesting. I don't know, you

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know, they didn't get very good
reviews, and there was you know,

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there was sort of consensus on the
news sites that I was looking at,

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in other words, the legit news
sites, not the cable news guys that

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neither either governor won. You know, they both scored some points, neither

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one of them. It looked exactly
presidential, but it would. You know,

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it was a non event from a
presidential campaign standpoint, but it was

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probably better than the Republican debates that
they've had so far. Yeah, definitely.

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You know, still my favorite guy
is still the Baker Ramaswami as far

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as political mediator goes. He's like
the most fun guy to watch. And

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who knows, he's so young now
that he could easily be like chief of

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staff or a president or something like
that and then come back and run with

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a little bit of government experience.
And actually he might he might actually be

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a president at some point, which
at this point I think would be cool.

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You know, it won't happen this
time around, but sometime while you

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and I are still doing interviews,
carry. I think it's complete possible that

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we have a president around the slummage. Yeah, well, they're all actors,

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you know. So Trump was the
only real candidate because there was no

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grooming, There was no you know, positioning, marketing. Like remember that

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movie The Selling of the President I
think it was. It was a book

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about forty fifty years ago, and
basically they sell the president like they sell

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dog food, you know, only
absolutely the dog food is probably more beneficial.

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Well, you know, you could
make the case that Trump is just

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a higher level marketer so that it
doesn't look like there's marketing going on.

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You know, he's he's the guy
with no filder who says what he thinks

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he's gonna you know, he makes
all these really grandiose promises. That could

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be a brand, you know,
it could be a bought out brand,

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although I actually don't think so.
I think Trump literally doesn't have a filter,

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yeah, and actually is saying what
he thinks and in any given moment,

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you know. So, but yeah, you know, it could be

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that he's a convicted fellon who gets
elected presidently, which that alone, you

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know, leave all the other stuff
aside. That right there is pretty unique.

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Can you know, so twenty twenty
four shaping up as a existentially threatening

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year that if it doesn't involve the
nuclear war, might be just hilarious.

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You know, these just might be
a lot of fun to watch. So

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we'll say, oh, remember Doctor
strange Love was funny too, you know.

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Well, hen Henry just injuryus died. So that's that's another eerie kind

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00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:49,480
of coincidence there, that the guy
who Doctor Strangelove was a mobled after just

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00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,000
just kicked. Yeah, that's right. I forgot how he would say after

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that. So hey, yeah,
well we won't have any more entertaining movies

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like that again. We just can't
laugh about the bomb anymore. It's just

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not funny anymore now that so many
countries have it. Well, I think

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we'll leave it at that. Make
sure you go over to John's work at

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00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:18,480
Robino dot substack dot com link in
the show notes below and the sign up

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00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,480
for every newsletter Financial Survival Network dot
com. I'm sure we'll have lots more

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to talk about in two weeks.
John, you be well and we will

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talk soon. Thanks carriy see yah, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial

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00:23:32,079 --> 00:23:37,440
Survival Network. Your solution to today's
trying times For the latest, go to

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00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:44,039
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival
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