Hard part when you're talking about gold or even the stock market at this point
is we're at all time highs. You know when when you've been at a
high and then you pull back and then you rally again. You can look
at it go okay, there's you can look at the charge where there should
be resistance here and there should be support there, and that kind of thing,
because we have history. You're listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network where
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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network
now more than ever. Welcome you are watching and listening to the Financial Survival
Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, we're exactly in mid
May here. Interesting things are going on with a dollar, copper, oil,
gold, and silver, not the least of which our good friend from
TF Metals Report dot com, Craighempke is with us now to go through these
markets. Greg, Great to see you. So what is going on with
these markets here? A lot? How's that? That's just okay, you'd
be more vague. You know, it's been a remarkable year so far,
especially you know with my focus of the precious metals, we hear the metals
have broken out for a number of different reasons. Obviously, everybody wants to
narrow it down to one, and I think that's impossible. There's there's probably
five or six. But they've broken out before the FED started to cut.
You know, we we have fought our way through. I mean, used
to go back to the first of the year. Carry market market was anticipating
seven rate cuts. All right, where are dollary decks? Was a hurt?
Good? Yeah, well that just it. So if you know,
we go back and I'm sure we were probably and when I put out my
annual forecast back in January, I bet that we probably spoke back then and
we talked about how, you know, that's got to come down. There's
no way they're cutting rates seven times. That's just not going to happen.
And so we have fought our way through, going from seven rate cuts down
to like one maybe two dollar inext going from one hundred and one to one
hundred and six, and that's back under one oh five yeld of the ten
year notes got up by fifty basis points, and yet gold's up some fifteen
percent year today. Now maybe I don't know, Maybe it's just gotten way
out ahead of itself. I don't know, but I think there's a combination
of factors going on here that have driven this. And now you throw on
this notion that the economy's rolling over, we're getting into that stagflation you and
I have been talking about for four years. We could get another surge higher
in the precious metals, relatively similing in that I think would be fun for
everyone. If five hundred, Yeah, if you look at the charge,
see, that's what's always hard carry, you know, because then you know,
I like to look at the charts. I'm not like sure Is Elliott
wave guys and all this other jazz. But I do think you combine that
with fundamental stuff and it kind of gives you a picture, you know,
which way the market is heading. Hard part when you're talking about gold or
even the stock market at this point is we're at all time highs. You
know, when when you've been at a high and then you pull back and
then you rally again. You can look at it go okay, there's you
can look at the charge where there should be resistance here and there should be
support there, and that kind of thing, because we have history but goals,
and it's never been before. Yeah, you're off you know, beyond
which there be dragons. Right, You're off the map, and so that
makes it difficult. But I do think there's ways you've been kind of project
it forward and just just kind of natural sentiment of things, and so yeah,
you know, I uh, there will probably be an inclination here from
where we are here on the fifteenth of May, there'd be an inclination or
an effort made to paint some double tops, so people should be on the
lookout for that. You go back to the middle of April, five weeks
ago or so, Gold got up to about twenty four to twenty Silver got
within a whisker of thirty airs breath. Yeah, yeah, and then you
know pulled back you know, some natural resistance there, especially in silver,
and now here we are getting back those levels. I would anticipate an effort
made to paint the charts with a double top sometime in the next week or
two, just as a line of defense for all of these banks that have
all of these shorts. I mean again, when you're in an all time
high, every short is underwater. Every short ever created is underwater. So
that has to be managed. So I would anticipate that. But you know,
Powell Terry, when back at the March FMC interviews that he did after
that and then again at the May FMC said he is watching the labor market
real closely. He knew the thing they hike too late and inflation got away
from him. He doesn't want to cut too late, and they have the
economy tank and so he has said, and I'm not I got paraphrasing,
but I'm anybody canna look this up. He has said repeatedly that if he
sets his weakness in the labor market, they will cut. They'll put inflation
on the back burner and they'll cut. Well, we're starting to see that
that the latest jobs report was weak. Some of the internal stuff over the
last couple of weeks has been a week. So if we get now into
the summertime and all of a sudden the Fed does cut or start out actively
talking about cutting, any double top painting by the banks isn't going to hold.
And that's what we'll look for. You that'll be the signal. Hey,
So yeah, I don't see where they have any choice. They're going
to have to cut and we talked about that, but they want to put
it off to the last possible moment. On the other hand, the FED,
Powell said Chairman Powell absolutely despises the challenger to the throne and has come
out, maybe not on the record, but through leaks as supporting the current
occupant of the White House. So I remember one time Alan A. Wilson
wrote in Barons he was a longstanding editor Barons. He said, the FED
is now doing what it does best, helping to get a president re elected.
Yeah, when are they going to fall into that mode? Right?
Because they are a political institution, even though they pretend not to be.
But everything is political nowadays, no doubt. And that was and I mentioned
that forecast for this year. I had to write about that because that's to
be expected, right. I mean, even if you think Powell is at
the top, is try so hard to be a political and he wears a
purple necktie every time you see him in public, right, Yeah, just
like mother Yellinois wears that purple pants suit. You know, they're trying to
give this subliminal message that they're a combination of red and blue. It's not
my mother. So there will be pressure as we go through the summer.
It will start. It's already started with Folcahattas and Bernie Sanders at AOC,
you know, all talking about, oh, the people need a break,
you know, credit card rates you're so high, you know, and all
this kind of stuff. The pressure will mount. We've seen now, you
know, this uptick back up in the unemployment rate. You know, the
job's number, the headline number they always tout, whatever, but the unemployment
right is what Powell says he's going to be watching. It ticked down,
it ticked back up, it starts trending above four four, four point one,
four point two. It'll come and then we'll see how the markets bond
to that. They might initially go blonkers. You know, you might get
the S and P to surge another eight ten percent or something, and that
might be enough to surge gold up to twenty five twenty six hundred, and
silver through thirty to thirty five. Then about that time, that might be
the time that when everybody's all excited, that we start getting you know,
we get a pullback again, but I sure think that. I mean,
Paul has told you that hillcut rates if there's any sign of weakness in labor
mark, and we're certainly starting to see that weakness where I see in layoffs
galore. I think it's been long, but the numbers are all cooked.
I mean, you just can't believe any numbers. But right, big news.
Copper on the CRIMEX broke five bucks. Hey, it's trading it close
to that in the London Metals Exchange. What is your take on it?
It's different than mine. Well, I apologize if that little noise came through
somebody trying to call me on Skype, So I don't know a fat don't
you love it and hear it? We're good good anyway, if I look
distracted for a minute. Copper is a very interesting story. We relate this
all evently back to silver, right, because silver's banging up against this thirty
dollars level which has contained it now for almost four years. Okay, gold
broke out of its range back in March and immediately shot more than ten percent
higher, right, and it's still up here. Did that break silver out?
No? Okay, Well, maybe if gold goes higher it will well
what else could break drag silver kicking and screaming a move in copper, because
copper and silver at this point are basically I mean, silver is more like
copper than it is gold at this moment in history. Yeah, he was
a conductor of electricity and everything else still has monetary components that may return at
some point. You got people invest in silver. They don't invest in copper,
but you get the idea. Okay, I refer back. I mentioned
this this forecast I every year. In January of twenty twenty three, in
my forecast, I had a whole section on copper because as twenty twenty three
began, there were all sorts of analysts and investment banks, even golden Sachs
that were saying above ground copper stock piles could be extinct by August, not
August this year, August last year. Wow, and copper was going right,
and then it isn't never die. They found some I guess what warehouse
was it? The lurking in exactly? Well, now hold on, let's
fast forward about an extra eight months. Maybe they were all early. Maybe
they were all early, because now copper is going through the roof. We're
seeing all kinds of sides that kind of I found something on Twitter about some
what I kind of now the name has cased me, but some rates that
smelters pay for copper con to trade being negative, meaning they're paying for it
trying to secure supply. All these different signs that copper is suddenly in a
serious supply shortage. So maybe you know, some of these banks that were
looking for above ground copper to really be in trouble and supply shortages by late
last year, maybe that's now all coming to fruition. The price people should
watch, though, is not the COMEX copper price. That's what gets quoted
all the time. As we record this earlier today that went to five thirteen
a pound and then immediately fell back, like to for eighty five a pound.
I mean that's a huge move, went up seven percent and then fell
five percent. That's all speculus stuff. There's no copper that gets delivered in
New York, just like there's no gold or silver apermarket. Right. If
you want to watch the copper price, watch the LME price of London Metals
Exchange. That's more of your international benchmark. It's an actual functioning market to
actually deliver metal there. That's the one that right now, it's about two
hundred dollars a ton. You could do that math and go, okay,
well there's two thousand pounds and a ton, so that's five dollars a pound.
What the comax price is going to continue to do this kind of stuff?
Right in terms of copper, they'll watch that that that tonnage price,
it got up to ten thousand dollars, kind of ran into psychological resistance,
banged around. It's now really established a foothold above ten thousand. A lot
of the big investment banks have moved up their price target and now twelve thousand
dollars a ton. Okay, Well, if that's the case, then you
could expect that comax copper price to go to five seventy five eighty six dollars
all time highs. And now getting back finally to where I started this carry.
Yeah, if gold goes higher because of what's Powell's doing all this kind
of stuff and goes to say twenty five hundred, and if copper goes to
six dollars a pound, Silver's not gonna stay at twenty eight twenty nine,
Okay, It's just not. And so when it finally gets drag kicking and
screaming through that resistance level at thirty it's a really high likelihood it will go
to thirty four, thirty five in relatively short order. That's gonna have big
impacts on the mining shares. And that's all something people show. So watch
copper closely in the day's head. So so your feeling is that when this
thing breaks out, okay, and it will, that it's going to finally
take the junior miners with it temporarily at least, yes, you know,
and I and I say that temporarily just because of the natural ebb and flow.
Right, you and I have discussed the past the clear correlation between not
gold and the gold miners or the ets. But right, yeah, you
get silver to run to thirty five or thirty six, the miner's gonna go
with it. My guess is we will add then, is let's say that
plays out of the course of summer, Powell starts cutting rains and get this
surge. You know, we get into June July and this happens again.
There have been a lot of peaks in the precious metals short term at least
that have occurred in the summer months. Okay, this could be another one.
It wouldn't surprise me, based on how these things have gone over the
decade plus that I've been watching, if it didn't happen again, you know,
you get this another big rush forward, and and that now this one
finally Silver's into the thirties. Everybody's excited. Here we go, and there's
gonna be people all over Twitter talking about silver gonna do. And it will.
But my plan will be when that happens to maybe be a little little
cautious at that point, because you know how it is. When everybody in
this sector gets all excited, that usually is some kind of top yeah,
and the sheet and they know how to time it exactly, you know,
to bring that price down right, Yeah, and then everybody gets depressed,
you know, and think, oh okay. And then again all that's because
of the fundamentals, because of the exploding debt. You know, thirty whatever's
thirty five trillion down right, two trillion dollars a year at extra debt,
the interest on the national debt now a trillion dollars a year, exceeding even
defense spending. All that, all of that stuff, yeah, in the
end is what then makes it go even higher again. But there will probably
be a point, if I'm right about another surge board in the next sixty
days, when we'll probably get another pullback. The tree grow to the sky,
right, right, not in this current not straight up markets, right.
And you know, it's it's important to realize that in addition to all
this, we've got a very weak banking sector. They say it's just it's
limited just to the community and smaller banks. I don't believe it. And
I think that if you would just what Powell said that when employment starts to
get affected, if you just say, when mass bank failures are thretned,
substitute that, then he's going to cut. He has to cut for that
reason alone. Right. So you got employment and you've got a shaky bank
sector. Yes, and that's a bad combination, especially in an election year,
right, right. And the only way you can pay off or manage
the debt is with the cheaper dollars to tomorrow. You paid today's and yesterday's
debt with the cheaper dollars of tomorrow. And eventually, again this is not
next week, okay or next month, but eventually they're going to go down
the path of yelkurve control. Yeah, because they have to. Now.
When gold took off again, we started this by like, wow, it
took off before the FED even started cutting. On the first of March.
It was Friday, the first of March, gold shot forty dollars higher,
rose at all time and weekly high and daily high like twenty eighty nine something
like that, and then it broke out one hundred dollars higher the next week.
What out On the first of March, Fed goon Waller gave us speed
each and he said, we want to do a couple of things going forwar,
at least what I want to do, he said, I want to
roll us out of some of the longer term stuff into the shorter term stuff.
Yeah, I'm sure, uninvert deal curve. But then that will also
give us room for the next round of QE to buy long term stuff.
And everybody went, wait a second, the next round of QE what so
what I limited it stopped? When did QE stop? Well, no,
exactly, And so what's going to eventually come? I mean, this is
a kid. It has to otherwise the whole thing will do this, the
banking sector, everything is They're going to be printing money to fund all the
ongoing deficits, then they're going to do yield curve control to cap. The
Fed will just say we are we are buyers above a certain level. We
will always be buyers above three percent or whatever they decide. It's going to
be, just like the Bank of Japan has been. And when you get
to that point, now, all of a sudden you don't have sharply negative
real rates again because of inflation everything else. And that's when you know that's
it. Yep, yeah, yeah, yeah, Well, hey, monetization
of the debt. That's all that Quey is is just monetizing the debt.
Right, But it's a fine line because when you do it too fast,
then you undermine confidence and you jack up inflation. Like, hey, why
are the headlines in the papers yesterday? PPI experts surprised that PPI came out
higher than expected? Right? Who could be surprised by that? I'm only
surprised it wasn't higher. Yeah, it's a number, and that's a cook
number anyway, right, right, like every every other bit of government data
election year, Garry, Yeah, exactly what until this last report a week
ago, what every single headline job number had beaten expectations for thirteen out of
fourteen months or whatever one was right. Yeah, yeah, I don't think
you can believe any of that. Can you go back? And it's not
just election here, how many times they have to manage whatever the basket of
goods are in CPI anyway to create nice adjustments with stuff and it get it
all, It all pieces together in the management of the debt because if you
can convince the market that inflation is only two percent, then you will buy
treasury bonds at three percent or four percent or whatever because you're getting a positive,
real way to return. But if they were to actually report right what
inflation really is, no one's gonna buy a treasury at three or four percent
except the FED. And that's for that's where we're headed. And that's that's
the name of the game. Hey, it's just the whole world is collapsing
at once here. You know, it's every plate, it's everywhere, and
this really exempt. So you know, when we go back to a gold
standard, always said it will be because it's the only option right right,
right, And historically that's how the pedge will swings. You know, you
begin your your currency begins backed by goals that people have confidence to use it
right, great for goods and services, and you hold it because there's got
some value that anchor cycle, right, And then the politicians get a hold
of it and they want their power, so then they want a more currency
for their wars and their social programs and everything else. Eventually you go off
the golds Diader like Nixon did, and then you swing all the way over
here to where the base things basically worthless, and then nobody wants it.
And then all of a sudden you got to get some confidence again, and
so it swings back over here and you back it again. And that's that's
the direction we're headed. Hey, And wars and bubbles that go together,
you know. The whole thing. The South Sea bubble was about paying off
the England's war debt. It was a scam to pay it off, and
then it turned into a bubble, and then the Louisiana Land purchase all of
that. Some bubbles and wars and inflation all go together. But okay,
yeah, I just find it really interesting that no matter what happens, the
cycles just keep repeating themselves. We never get any smarter, you know,
don't we just don't? All right? Then, well, hey, that
is it for today. Make sure you go over to greg site TF metals
Report dot com and there it is in the in the screen and show.
There's a link in the show notes on Financial Survival Network dot com. How
much? How much are you getting these days? Because you know Starbucks h
the price of Starbucks has gone up. I started a site called Inflation Cafe
Inflation dot Cafe where we outline, we highlight all of these stories about inflation.
And it got inspired because in Starbucks, my latte has doubled in the
past four years. It's ridiculous. And and they've increased the amount of foam.
And then their loyalty program. You know, it's loyalty from the customers.
Whenever you see these loyalty programs, it's disloyalty from the company. They
used to give you one free drink a month. They got rid of that.
They used to give me a free drink on my birthday, they got
rid of that. They cut back the points. I mean, hey,
complete disloyalty. So I thought they were entitled to have a website named after
them, and it's the Inflation dot Cafe where dollars go to die. I
get I like it. Well, I'm guilty a little bit of that out
of my site. I started all this back in twenty ten. Oh my
god. I quickly figured out this ad revenue thing and being beholded to Google.
Yeah, not a good toa then ain't gonna fly. So in twenty
thirteen, and to keep out the trolls, we started charging everybody ten bucks
a month. It's currently fifteen, so it's up fifty percent. But over
the last eleven years, that's not bad. That's pretty good. I think
you have aren't even to what's happened at Starbucks, right, And if I
could look, I just tell people everybody knows stuff's not free, right,
Fifteen dollars about what you spend maybe for a magazine subscription, you know,
or to the website of your favorite sports team or whatever. But I say
this all the time. My site's different. Man, we keep track of
everything. But it's not just me. It's everybody on the site that's keeping
track of everything too. It's a time like this, man, you need
as much community. I had boots on the ground as you can. And
you can't count on your neighbor or the people you know, because they're all
running out of their head in the sand trying to keep track of their old
lives. But you can come to t F Metals Report. You can find
a whole community of people looking out for each other, so and so for
fifteen bucks a month. That's a pretty good deal, absolutely all right.
Links in the show notes. Make sure you sign up for our free newsletter,
Craig's got one as well, Financial Survival at work dot com. Craig,
We'll talk to you in a month or two, or when I promise
you that some goal breaks twenty five hundred will get you on that day.
Okay here alright, he sounds like a deal. Thanks. That always a
pleasure. Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to
today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
Financial Survival Network now more than ever.