WEBVTT

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Hey guys, it's Jack. I
just wanted to talk to you today about

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a way that you can help support
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out at patreon dot com. Slash
the Teamhouse says, the content to me

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is being sent to a third party. Yeah, that's YouTube. Oh now

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are we just letting him talk or
we're live? No? Yeah, we'll

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set the scene and yeah we'll get
it. We'll get his two cents when

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he's when he's on. Okay,
I don't even know we're live or now

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what's up? Yeah we are?
Yeah, guys, all right, yeah

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we're a live We're live and alive. What's going on? Everybody? Were

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you want to let him know what's
going on? Yeah? So we decided

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to go live because Iran's popping off
and shot a whole bunch of drones and

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ballistic missiles at Israel, and it
just so happens. Andy Milburn is in

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Israel as we speak right now,
and as ship's hitting the fan. So

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we're waiting on him to jump on
and give us the give us the lowdown

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on what's going on. Can they
ask Is it like normal where they can

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ask questions and stuff? Yeah?
Yeah, they can ask questions in the

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chat if they want, Okay,
but I won't. I mean, how

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are you How do you see them
on your phone? Uh? Yeah?

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You can look at it through your
phone or I have like the computer.

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I have it set up where I
have my laptop here and I'm watching okay,

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the stream and I'm trying to change
the thumbnail. So yeah, thanks

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everybody for coming. This is just
like a hasty Uh what it's a hasty

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show because and he's a lunatic.
I love him, but he's a lutes.

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I try to get Jack Murphy on, but he just told me he

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doesn't work weekends. Yeah, he
doesn't care if Jesus himself comes back.

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Yeah, wait till he can wait
till Monday. Yeah, he's off on

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the weekends. See you can hear
it? Cool? All right? Huh,

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all right, you got me talking
about Jack. It's okay. I'll

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talk back about Jack all day to
his face too, JP or take any

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chance they will cut the internet where
Andy is at. We're hoping not,

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but there's a good possibility. So
we're going to try to get him on

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before that happens. I don't even
know where Andy is. My assumption is

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tel Aviv, right, I just
believe. So all right, I see

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you guys. I see the chat. Now, what's up? Chat?

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And I thank you? Andrew.
Andrews a mod too. He's a mod

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for the chat. He gets he
gets activated when people get stupid in the

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chat. Oh yeah, yeah.
See when you see somebody who writes and

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they have a little wrench next to
their name, that means they're they're a

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moderator. Appreciate you keeping it,
keeping the savages away from the gate.

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Andrew, Shit, just pop it
off. It is kind of crazy.

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And he did say it feels like
it's like a two sports teams, Like

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it's a sporting event. Like some
of the comments I've seen when I somehow

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stumble into Twitter, Uh, some
of the comments are crazy. Oh like

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this is the beginning of the stream, yes, the end? Who did

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oh? Yeah? Yeah? Oh
like we literally just started waiting for Andy.

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He's putting pants on. Yeah,
running in the streets in his tidy

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whities. Mark. Is there a
MEW m e U, which is a

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marinext with unit in the vicinity?
I would think so how close they are

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I don't know, but there usually
is a four deployed MEW. Someone correct

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me if I'm wrong nicely, because
I will cut your ass out. Yeah,

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so, shit's pop it off.
I mean there's another report saying Jordanian

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fighter jets intercepted dozens of drones Iranian
drones in their airspace. I think we

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have intercepted drones to the UK and
intercepted drones. Yeah yeah, it's I

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guess they're going to try to catch
them out as far out as they can

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but yep, Fire Phoenix Gamers.
You did call it all right, and

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it's gonna jump on. Iron Dome
is working overtime today. Some crazy videos.

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Yeah, did you see what you
want you to post in the chat?

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Yeah, that's on Twitter too.
I saw that on Twitter a couple

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of minutes ago. I don't even
know how to post that in the chat.

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And these guys are making me do
work. Yeah, everyone please bear

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with us. This is our first
one going live like this. Oh yeah,

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first Ey is on live. Live. Doesn't stress me out because we

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do the team house live, so
it's like I'm already stressed out anyway.

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So yeah, Iran has the right
to defend it. We're not. I

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mean, I'm not saying anything,
bro. I mean again, I just

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want Andy Milburn to get the fuck
out of is. That's all I already

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care about about. Sorry, if
it sounds like a horse racing here,

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the dog is running up and down
Percy. We still have his dog ball

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at that at the studio. Oh
really, Yeah, we haven't touched it.

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It's just there's filled the flater.
You should have guests drink out of

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it. Yeah. So there are
some initial reports about US forces at or

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Bill International Airport in northern Iraq,
as well as Alasade air Base in western

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Iraq being hit by proxies. Yes, that's actually happened, or that's happening.

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H I mean I guess I was
to be expected, right yeah,

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Fire Phoenix, Yep, he is
in Israel right now? Uh, Paul,

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what kind of dog? He's a
pippo? Am I allowed to say?

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Or would he get taken from me? I'm gonna see if I can

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get him to come over. Percy
kme here, Percy's demand Percy come?

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Uh? Mark? Well, Israel
retaliate big, I mean most likely,

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and something just broke right now Israel
I like five minutes ago, Israel War

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Cabinet approves a military response to Iran's
aggression. I kind of got an issue

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with that wording, but I know
it's the war cabinet and that's what they're

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supposed to say. But I mean, like Israel's scorting over a whole bunch

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of drones and ballistic missiles because they
is Iran is scorting over a bunch of

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drones and uh, ballistic missiles because
Israel hit seven or six guys at their

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consulate. It wasn't like on a
motorcade that was between the consulate and the

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airport in Syria. It was at
their like actual embassy or an annex to

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the embassy. Yeah, so it's
like, yeah, everyone's a bulligerent here

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in this thing. Yeah, we
can't answer that question, Sakari, Why

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did Israel attack the embassy? You
gotta that's not for us to answer.

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I mean I haven't even taken responsibility
for it yet. No, I don't

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think officially. No. Yeah,
yeah, Israel's probably gonna go buck wild.

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I'll say, Israel's definitely like the
short drunk friend that always gets to

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fights and needs like his bigger friends
to like either calm it down or come

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and save them, because that's what
the US feels like all the time.

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Yoh. When I was before I
went to the agency, I was going

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to finishing up school and was doing
some bouncing at a bar and so this

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guy comes in and he's like,
hey, listen, we got somebody coming

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in. He's kind of a name, you know, well known name,

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but he likes to drink and he
likes to fight. And I'm like,

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all right, well who is it? So was Jason Muse? You know

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who he is? Jason? No, you know Jay and Simon Bob Oh

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yeah, okay. Yeah. So
he comes in and he's like, I

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promise I'm gonna behave tonight. And
this is goes with your what you just

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said about Israel. He's like,
I promise I'm not gonna cause any problems

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tonight, blah blah blah. And
we're like, all right, no problem.

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So we're standing there and he's standing
like in between us, but behind

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us myself and another bouncer, and
uh, this guy comes on and starts

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running his mouth to him. All
of a sudden, his hand comes in

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between us. Jason Muse slaps the
taste out of dude's mouth and just backs

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up there. He is, hey
day, hey guys, just not salt

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English sensibility. Yeah, guy,
that it's been quiet. I mean it's

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quiet his so far. Well that's
probably you know, not going lost.

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Uh so we're live now, we
are live. Yeah, yeah, people

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are ready? Okay about you?
All right? Do it? Do you

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guys want to make it? Give
you a quick heads up? I just

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please, I'm getting, I'm getting. I think we'll see how reliable it

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is. Let me just just get
to my notes. Bottom line is this.

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You know there are so you know, what I'll try and do is

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tell you what you don't already know, and you're already aware of about five

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hundred drones that were launched earlier this
evening. They looked like being a mixture

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of Shahhed. You know, I'm
saying it as though I'm watching them.

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No, they've been identified as as
a mixture of shah Had one thirty ones

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and one thirty six. Is those
things, remember, are really slothing,

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and they take about nine hours to
reach here, so they won't get here

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until tomorrow morning. But you know, there's a couple of things going on

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here. Obviously, I mean,
the Iranians aren't so dumb as to just

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launch Shahad missiles. But at the
same time, and I hope I'm right

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about this, there is almost a
there's kind of almost a braid like element

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to this that suggests that this is
all part I'm going to get vilified to

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saying this of a complicated game.
That doesn't necessarily mean it's any safer.

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But what I'm saying is that there's
kind of a there's a progression here.

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So Iran if they were really sensible, they would have of course launched ballistic

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and cruise missiles at the same time
to coordinate the landing time, and they've

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kind of tipped their hat at that. They've announced that they've launched ballistic missiles.

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But the thing is, if they
were really were ballistic missiles, they

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would be here in twelve minutes,
I mean exactly, you know, not

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between like ten and fifteen minutes.
But the announcement was made a couple of

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hours ago, so I don't know
if they've confused the ballistic missiles was something

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else, while cruise missiles take two
hours. Yeah, that could be,

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or it could be they are intercepted, but not getting a lot of really,

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you know, we're getting feedback from
external interceptions. So the Jordanians are

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intercepting them over Jordan. They've I
believe they've launched aircraft. The Brits definitely

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have launched aircraft from Cyprus and and
and they've already intercepted drones. So the

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shot head drones are you know,
they're not exactly difficult to intercept, he

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says, as though you know he's
done. No, I've been on the

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intercepting end of shy heads. I'm
talking a big game. But you know,

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I mean, they they they're very
slow moving their danger is this that

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you know, this is, as
the Uranians say, only step one.

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And what the Uranians have said is
that this is you know, the each

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each step is going to be more
severe depending on Israel's response. All right,

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So this is where we get kind
of in a we get in a

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position where things could easily escalate even
though both sides think they're adhering to the

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rules. All right. So what
I'm reading in this, and again I

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don't have any you know, aside
from my personal investment in this, is

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what I think is probably going on. So all this announcement, posturing the

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announcement, you know, the shar
heads, I mean, the Russians don't

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do this, of course, on
they launched shot hits. They don't give

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it quite such a fan So there's
no definitely a lot of this is for

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show. There's a very serious element
to this. And I want to remind

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you that has Bolla still really hasn't
weighed in. You know, there have

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been salvos of rockets, you know, fifty or more at a time,

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but not not nothing really that has
made a dent in his Ballo's arsenal.

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So that's that's an unknown quantity,
as are the potential actions of proxies.

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You know we discussed earlier. I
mean, they still aren't on the chessboard.

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So when I could two things could
be happening. It could really be,

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as I suspect, and as I
hope, the Uranian's playing by the

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rules of the game, gradual escalation. Everyone says, face the Israelis hit

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back, but they hit military targets
it. You know, maybe they don't

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hit in Iran, who knows what
we'll see, but definitely the you know,

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the Israelis do hit back. They
be very, very wary of causing

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collateral damage in Iran because they're trying
to regulate the escalation. But back to

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this initial drones wrike. Okay,
I don't want you to think I'm being

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entirely flippant about it, because it
is concerning me, just as yeah,

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the shot head is by itself a
piece of shit. But as the saying

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goes, quantity has equality all of
its own. The danger here is that

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Israel's much vaunted air defense systems will
become saturated. I've seen a lot of

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you know, you know how these
things happen. Everyone turns into a technical

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expert, while I can tell you
the Israelis are very concerned about about their

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systems becoming overwhelmed by a combination of
drones, ballistic and cruise dis missiles plus

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rockets launched from multiple directions and multiple
distances. And that really does And when

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I say overwhelmed, well it's a
question of degree, right. But even

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if we're not talking about being overwhelmed, even if we're talking about all the

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systems operating as they are. I'm
going to run some numbers by you.

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These are not my you know,
these have been These are coming from a

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from someone who knows these numbers.
He's involved in in uh in missile defense

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here. But you know it doesn't
it again, they this this doesn't take

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into account other variables. But let
me let me just you know, if

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if everything else, if there are
there are is, if nothing else is

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fight at Israel aside from say,
you know, the salvo, blistic missiles

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and the drones. Okay, so
you know the various systems. The Patriots

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system, of course is you know, the kind of the platinum standard.

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But you know the Patriots who's considered
the platinum standard. But you know,

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the Patriots system only has it is
likely to have about a fifty percent kill

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rate against against ballistic missiles. So
these Raelis rely on a sling of David.

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You know, everyone's heard about iron
dome, which which is oriented against

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a particular type of threat kind of
rockets, and and uh and and missiles.

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But uh, but but shorter range
and uh, the the Patriot,

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Yes, we'll we'll focus on ballistic
missiles along with uh what the Israeli is

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called David sling, but you know, together that's going to It's still about

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ten percent of of missiles will get
through. All right. That may not

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sound a lot, but even uh, the even a handful of of of

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cruisal missiles getting getting through, even
two or three is has the potential causing

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significant casualties because of the population centers
here are so densely packed. And uh

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oh oh, I'm sorry, totally
messed up. And forgive me black a

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sleep. But no for blistic missiles, I'm sorry. The the the drones

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Da've sling will shoot down cruise missiles, and drones Patriot can shoot down primarily

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blisting missiles. Well, the Israelis
have Arrow three, which is focused on

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on the blisting missile threat, and
they claim they have a ninety nine percent

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rate success rate. Okay, that
is when that is though, if they're

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not being overwhelmed, we don't No
one really knows what's going to be thrown

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into the air. As far as
bullisting missiles two, you know, it

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appears that none have been fired out
there yet. Again, the Uranians would

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be done not to use them.
So now look, I don't think we're

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going to see huge escalation on this
first strike. And you know, in

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theory has Bala and the you know
Iranian I'm sorry, the Iraqi or rather

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the Shia militia in Iraq that has
some report. They have been some reports

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about uh uh or Bill air Base
and another air base getting hit by some

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proxies and stuff like that just recently, probably in the last twenty or so

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minutes against US basis, right,
yeah, yeah, So I'm kind of

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talking about if we assume that that
this is part of a campaign, I'm

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talking about their integration into an attack
on this Rael. And I don't know,

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but if I was a betting man, I would say that and his

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bolla is the biggest threat there,
I would guess that his bolla is not

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going to step up to the plates
and saturate the northern area with rockets and

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missiles at this plane. But everyone
knows that threat is always there, and

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it's there for you know, the
next time around in theory. In theory,

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they are, you know, a
really good way to make this UH

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an effective attack or at least cause
casualties. And I quoted those figures to

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you too. So let's just be
honest. I mean, Israel's can be

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lucky to emerge from this without Sailian
casualties. But let's suppose this. Let's

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suppose this is carefully meeted by Iran
and that Azuela has been told, hey,

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just you know, keep your powder
dry. Let's see how Let's see

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how the Israeli, how the Zionist
the Zionist entity reacts to this. So

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if I was betting man, I
would say Hasbello does very little. They

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could wait and launch mass attacker drones
and missiles just as the Uranian drones and

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missiles enter Israeli as base into the
protection bubble, and that would have a

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good shot at overwhelming the various air
defense systems here. But I think it's

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more likely that this attack is going
to be measured kind of the last warning

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and that Iran is waiting for the
response from the Israelis. I think it

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was kind of a similar scenario right
after the Solemney hit. You remember that

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there's kind of a measured response strikes
on us positions to to kind of,

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you know, to to save face. But it wasn't intended to escalate.

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I think I'm hoping that that is
what we're saying here. Look at what

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about the Hoothis, What about the
Hohothies. Yeah, the Hoothies here are

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not regarded as being a huge threat
because, yes, they have launched a

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couple of missiles that have hit a
lat which is the southernmost southernmost city in

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Israel. It's on the Red Sea, but to date has not really you

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know, threatened population centers here.
And you know, I don't know if

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this is true, but you know, the ide F or the Israeli security

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Service. I had a then it
was someone last night who told me that.

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He said, look, we're not
worried about missiles and drones as long

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as his balla stays out of it. He did say that he doesn't think

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as well would be involved at this
stage. But their main worry, the

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Israeli's main worry right now is that
the airport will be closed down for an

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indefinite period, all right, and
the Israelis are concerned that the economy,

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their economy will you know, obviously
would suffer badly. I mean essentially that

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would put the country under siege.
Yes, Israel has two major ports,

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but you know, so much comes
through the airport to include, as you

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know, all the mugnitions that the
United States has been has been providing for

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operations sorts of iron. So that
that is a big concern and frankly not

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one that had that had occurred to
me until the conversation last night. So

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I paused that guys and see if
you have any any questions. Sorry,

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there's no more dramatic. Well I'm
not sorry, but you maybe that there

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are no dramatic explosions in the background. That's fine. Where are you staying

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and if you don't mind saying,
I'm staying at a I was staying at

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a hotel on the on the beach
or near the beach. It's like,

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but it's it's a low profile place. It's all Israeli's head. There's no

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foreigners and I'm not staying like you
know, in the big strip of four

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five star hotels down there. Well, that's more. That's more because I'm

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a cheap skate. That's you know, this isn't it. This isn't a

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question. But Jack said, Andy, please don't die over there. We're

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not insured for it. Yeah,
good point. You know there was never

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any question the team house ensuring me. I mean, Jason, you know

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how it is. We've got to
fight. Do you remember when when we

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did when you know, we did
that podcast there in New York and we

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had a had a arm wrestled with
d just to share us just in pizzas

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like pizza. Yeah, I relent. I finally relented and got the guy's

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pizza on their protest though, so
uh us, I'm not you know,

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you guys are probably tracking the coalition
efforts to shoot down drones and just drones

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so far. I think that's I
think that's pretty interesting. I mean,

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I you know, it's expected,
there's there's some unexpected components. Remember the

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Jordanians. It wasn't certain that whether
they would counter and use their own systems

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to shoot down Iranian drones. I
think they knocked out a couple yeah,

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yeah, or even or even allow
the Israelis to do it in their airspace,

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but they have done so. So
you know that's thank God for silver

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linings. Right, there's one.
What kind of response are we looking at

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from Israel after this? Hope Andy
might have throwze a little bit. Well

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all right, I think you know
the big question here isn't he still see

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me? We got you now you
broke up for a second. Yeah,

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So the key question is you know
I mentioned the airport. Well, of

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course, I don't want you to
think that the idea of all the Israeli

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security forces are not concerned about civilian
casualties. Of course they are. I'm

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just saying that they're worried, you
know, they they There is concern about

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mass casualty events, of course,
but people here are not going brazy.

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It's a very similar attitude as it
was in Kiev. And one of the

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beauties of the air defense system that
was not there in Kiev is that it's

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very it's very time management friendly.
Some In other words, it doesn't you

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know, when the arms goes off, it means no shit, there is

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something heading for your you know,
your neck of the words, right,

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But when Jerusalem gets hit, the
alarms don't go off here in Tel Aviv,

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and even when you know, depending
what the depending what's coming in,

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so we you know, we won't
hear alarms here in tel Aviv unless the

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you know, the various systems have
determined that there is something heading right here.

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And I believe actually within Tel Aviv
that they can get as good as

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neighborhoods. But you've got to be
careful doing that, right when you're talking

317
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about something like this head But you
know, the last piece is this isn't

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more of the same for the Israelis, you know, I mean rockets and

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missiles from Gaza or even his Bolla. It's it's a different ball game from

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a mass strike or involving drones and
potentially ballistic missiles and potentially cruise missiles all

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at once. And if that is
what occurs, I mean either this strike

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called subsequent strikes. Yeah, that's
a that's a watershed moment. Now getting

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back to your point, though,
d the Israeli response is going to depend

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on one thing, and that is
civilian casualties. All right, they there

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is you know, as we've seen
in the aftermath of seven October, there

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is a very very deeply buried in
the national Psyche and and this goes way

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back, and I don't think anyone
here would argue with it. Is that

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the sanctity of you know, of
life, of Israeli life, and so

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you know, in this historical reasons
all of this. It's not a comment.

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I'm not making a comment except of
that's a that's a pillar stone of

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of this. How this country conducts
foreign policy in many ways, and hence

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the big prisoner swaps where two or
three Israelis will be traded for several thousand,

333
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you know, detainees, Palestinian detainees. And so where I'm heading on

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this is I couldn't tell you that
there is a casualty figure above which at

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which were above which the Israelis will
you know, really go to war.

336
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You know, I don't know.
I don't even know what their redline is.

337
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But what I can tell you is
that they do have a red line,

338
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I'm sure. And number two is
I'm pretty sure that it is gauged

339
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in terms of civilian casualties, because
that is what matters most to them.

340
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I'm not saying the US government doesn't
care about us, but it's very it's

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a very it's a very prominent aspect
of US foreign policy, I mean Israeli

342
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foreign policy, which is why seventh
October was such a traumatic event to them,

343
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because that social contract that Israel's a
nation made with his citizens at its

344
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birth in nineteen forty eight and the
aftermath of the Holocaust was based on on

345
00:30:00.240 --> 00:30:03.279
you know, this is your refuge
and no one can touch you here.

346
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So violations of that refuge and violations
that result in spilt Jewish blood are taken

347
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very very seriously. So, Andy, you were talking about the sirens going

348
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off and all that. The last
time you're out in the streets, what

349
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what's the atmosphere like like is it? Is it? Well, the streets

350
00:30:25.799 --> 00:30:30.839
are so today with Shabbat and it's
normally a little bit quieter, but things

351
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always pick up in the afternoon.
On the beach, I went for a

352
00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:36.759
run on the beach and actually life
was going on as normal. You know,

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I know from friends here it in
Tel Aviv, and friends particularly have

354
00:30:41.240 --> 00:30:45.240
children. There is a lot of
nervousness, and you know what you see

355
00:30:45.279 --> 00:30:48.559
on the beach are kind of the
young crowd who are like what the fuck?

356
00:30:48.599 --> 00:30:52.880
You know, they don't really they
don't understand maybe or they just see

357
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you know, they're young. But
yes, there's considerable concern. And it's

358
00:30:56.559 --> 00:31:00.839
not just about the strikes. There
are considerable there's real concerned about just the

359
00:31:00.880 --> 00:31:03.839
future, you know, the future
of the state. And even if it

360
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isn't a concern, you know,
even if it isn't as playton as Oh,

361
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I'm afraid for my life. It's
economic security for the reasons that I've

362
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described. And you know, a
French guy told me today that a quarter

363
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of the population, almost the court
of the population, has left Asrael since

364
00:31:25.480 --> 00:31:29.880
seventh October. I don't know if
that's true. I haven't had a chance

365
00:31:29.960 --> 00:31:34.119
to it's certainly that there has been
a significant number of people who have left

366
00:31:34.920 --> 00:31:37.880
and I and I'm sure this event
will will add to it, you know.

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And a lot of Israelis have dull
citizenship, you know, so it's

368
00:31:42.559 --> 00:31:45.400
it's quite easy for a lot of
them to leave, but a lot of

369
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them don't, you know, and
they this is they don't have that option

370
00:31:49.960 --> 00:31:56.240
easy. Yeah, I'm hoping while
every lot of majority of people have their

371
00:31:56.240 --> 00:32:00.200
eyes of the sky with this whole
thing, that somebody's at least keeping their

372
00:32:00.200 --> 00:32:04.440
eyes on the ground because you know, just cross border stuff. Even if

373
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it's intermittent or small scale, it's
still a possibility. Yeah, I'm no,

374
00:32:09.559 --> 00:32:17.920
absolutely right, Jason. So his
BOLLA announced not announced, but like

375
00:32:17.960 --> 00:32:25.000
the Hispolla watches announced last night that
hisbola was planning ground attacks across the boarding.

376
00:32:25.039 --> 00:32:30.000
You know, who knows where they
but that's you know that that would

377
00:32:30.000 --> 00:32:37.759
not be completely surprising. I just
think that I just think that that'sralla Is.

378
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He's either been told. I'm sure
he's been taught. I'm sure he's

379
00:32:42.319 --> 00:32:45.559
got clear instructions. So I don't
think it's him to say, yeah,

380
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maybe I'll join in on this one. He's being told when to join in

381
00:32:49.880 --> 00:32:53.039
or when not to join in,
I'm sure, and I'm pretty sure this

382
00:32:53.039 --> 00:32:57.759
this is not the time his time. Yet. We got a question from

383
00:32:57.759 --> 00:33:02.000
the chat, how does the Iranian
oil industry not become a target to try

384
00:33:02.319 --> 00:33:07.400
and back down the Iranians. Yeah, that's a that's a great question.

385
00:33:08.000 --> 00:33:13.440
Who says it is in the target
to the Israelis? You know, well,

386
00:33:13.480 --> 00:33:16.799
I guess hit it. Yet it's
a great Yeah, it's a great

387
00:33:16.880 --> 00:33:21.319
question. So I think the answer
lies in the rules of the game,

388
00:33:21.720 --> 00:33:27.119
all right, and the problem about
the oil industry. Oh hey, let

389
00:33:27.160 --> 00:33:31.279
me just say one other thing.
The Israelis expect a massive cyber attack too,

390
00:33:31.759 --> 00:33:36.319
and that hasn't happened yet. So
if you know, we talk about

391
00:33:36.319 --> 00:33:45.319
combined arms, and we're talking about
about penetrating adversaries IADS space and using combined

392
00:33:45.400 --> 00:33:46.359
arms, this is what it is, you know. I mean, you

393
00:33:46.440 --> 00:33:52.359
use all these types of flying projectiles, unmanned flying projectiles, and then you

394
00:33:52.440 --> 00:33:55.720
throw in proxies, and then you
throw in a nice cyber attack right just

395
00:33:55.759 --> 00:34:05.039
at the last minute. That be
a pretty damaging attack because some missiles about

396
00:34:05.079 --> 00:34:08.559
to get through, But I don't
think that will happen until subsequent shots.

397
00:34:09.440 --> 00:34:17.519
The oil industry back to that,
well, there is I'm sure the US

398
00:34:19.079 --> 00:34:29.320
has both US and Israel separately have
plans to go after Iran's oil production and

399
00:34:29.400 --> 00:34:34.880
oil refinery capability. And for the
US, I would imagine that that begins

400
00:34:35.000 --> 00:34:40.679
by disabling platforms, offshore platforms,
because it doesn't carry quite the same gravitas

401
00:34:40.840 --> 00:34:45.719
as if they're in Iran itself.
Why has in Israel done that? Maybe

402
00:34:45.719 --> 00:34:51.880
because I don't know, I would
be speculating. But when you start striking

403
00:34:51.960 --> 00:34:57.880
targets in waters you're not even in
international waters, then again, you're kind

404
00:34:57.880 --> 00:35:02.000
of perhaps opening things up. I
will say this, Yeah, Israel definitely

405
00:35:02.079 --> 00:35:08.920
has plans, definitely has plans to
go after oil pipelines in Iran as part

406
00:35:08.920 --> 00:35:15.320
of conventional conflict, and has a
particular method of doing so that doesn't necessarily

407
00:35:15.400 --> 00:35:21.639
rely on long range miss tools.
Okay, let me just leave it there.

408
00:35:22.159 --> 00:35:23.559
But yeah, that's a great question, and the answer is yes,

409
00:35:23.599 --> 00:35:29.719
there are our plans to they just
haven't happened yet. I mean, I

410
00:35:30.000 --> 00:35:36.000
can see the US doing something to
oil platforms, if you know, as

411
00:35:36.039 --> 00:35:43.880
a form of what we call flexible
uh eight, I'm gonna get here,

412
00:35:44.039 --> 00:35:52.079
fdo flexible deterrent option. But what
time? What time is it there?

413
00:35:52.119 --> 00:35:58.760
Andy? Two? It's like two, Yeah, it's two forty men?

414
00:35:58.960 --> 00:36:04.800
Oh my god. Yeah, doing
no good for my beauty, sleeping.

415
00:36:06.039 --> 00:36:08.599
I Mean, the interesting thing that
I haven't heard of is like how this

416
00:36:08.760 --> 00:36:15.519
is kind of like shifting the focus
from the disaster that is Gaza to now

417
00:36:15.719 --> 00:36:20.000
I kind of stayed on state stuff. It's interesting how like that works.

418
00:36:21.079 --> 00:36:28.719
Yeah, there's been a lot of
comments about that that that actually this doesn't

419
00:36:28.760 --> 00:36:37.960
really play in Iran's favor because everything
was going Iran's way when Israel when you

420
00:36:37.039 --> 00:36:42.159
know, when the Gaza operation was
going on, you had the Israelis killing

421
00:36:42.199 --> 00:36:47.960
Sunnis, massive amounts of Sunnis and
turning the Islamic world against them, while

422
00:36:49.039 --> 00:36:52.960
his baller was able to plink you
know, away and just add to the

423
00:36:52.039 --> 00:36:59.239
confusion. And Iran was untouched.
So if you were if you think through

424
00:36:59.280 --> 00:37:02.960
this, hitting hitting those three dudes, you know, the three goods forced

425
00:37:04.000 --> 00:37:13.920
guys in Damascus was arguably geopolitically a
and a really inspired move because look at

426
00:37:13.920 --> 00:37:16.519
the world now, Gaza, you
know, Gars has forgotten about the new

427
00:37:16.599 --> 00:37:21.800
cycles, moved on and now it's
put it's Israel under attack by Iran,

428
00:37:22.360 --> 00:37:25.880
and you've got the country. You
know, you've got five countries scrambling air

429
00:37:25.880 --> 00:37:32.599
defense systems and jets to protect Israel. So you know, Israel's gone from

430
00:37:32.639 --> 00:37:37.719
being angry Goliath to brave the David, you know, in the in the

431
00:37:37.719 --> 00:37:42.239
eyes of many. So and Iran
did that. So it doesn't you know,

432
00:37:42.280 --> 00:37:46.159
I mean, it's it's curious as
it sometimes just like we do not

433
00:37:46.280 --> 00:37:51.079
do a good job when sometimes,
as we talked about this, when we

434
00:37:51.119 --> 00:37:58.039
are we try we try to predict
adversary actions based on pressure that we bring.

435
00:37:58.119 --> 00:38:00.039
You know, whether it's deception or
sanction. But the problem is we

436
00:38:00.079 --> 00:38:04.960
mirror image. What is valuable to
us has been valuable to our avisaru and

437
00:38:05.039 --> 00:38:08.079
that doesn't always work. And I
think the Iranians may be, you know,

438
00:38:08.119 --> 00:38:12.840
struggling with some of the same thing
they just they do. May they

439
00:38:12.840 --> 00:38:20.480
do some things very well, but
but swaying public opinion across you know,

440
00:38:20.519 --> 00:38:23.599
globally may not be it. You
know, I think, I think what

441
00:38:23.719 --> 00:38:29.400
has happened since seven October has has
been the effect of what's happened in Gaza,

442
00:38:29.440 --> 00:38:31.360
what the Israelis have been doing in
Gaza. It hasn't been Iran has

443
00:38:31.400 --> 00:38:37.119
been able to stir up this angle, right, because they are very They're

444
00:38:37.199 --> 00:38:42.719
very cack handed when it comes to
strategic communication. So I'm getting I'm getting

445
00:38:42.760 --> 00:38:45.320
reports as a I'll send you this
one. I've just got send a picture

446
00:38:45.360 --> 00:38:50.760
of a missile hitting the Negav.
Yeah, I've been seeing those two.

447
00:38:51.480 --> 00:38:54.360
Is that where the airport is?
Well? No, but these aren't near

448
00:38:54.400 --> 00:38:59.199
the airport, Okay, So if
they are, that's what I'm to hit

449
00:38:59.239 --> 00:39:02.199
the Negev, then that's playing within
the rules of the game. Right,

450
00:39:02.639 --> 00:39:07.000
you look at a map of Israel, the negative is the one, you

451
00:39:07.000 --> 00:39:08.679
know, outstanding. I mean it's
not the only one, but it is.

452
00:39:09.280 --> 00:39:17.280
But the Nega is Negev desert is
the most vastly populated part aside from

453
00:39:17.719 --> 00:39:21.639
well actually that's part of the negative
team to drive down to a lad.

454
00:39:22.639 --> 00:39:28.239
So if they're all, if they're
all focused on hitting the negive, then

455
00:39:28.679 --> 00:39:32.760
everyone says face his bola goes back
to sleep for a while, and the

456
00:39:32.800 --> 00:39:38.679
new cycle moves on Israel Israel,
you know, sense kind of a slap

457
00:39:38.800 --> 00:39:46.639
pad retaliation and life goes on.
Case scenario, right, that would be

458
00:39:46.679 --> 00:39:52.000
good seeing I'm seeing videos like shots
of like Jerusalem and like, I guess

459
00:39:52.000 --> 00:39:55.880
the Iron Dome hitting drones or whatever
they're hitting. I don't even know,

460
00:39:57.559 --> 00:40:02.760
but there's ain't they whatever going on
on in a in Jerusalem and they're showing

461
00:40:02.800 --> 00:40:09.800
a picture of like I guess,
the the Temple mount. I guess it's

462
00:40:09.800 --> 00:40:15.840
pretty wild. I mean, it's
crazy. What two days does it really?

463
00:40:15.039 --> 00:40:20.599
Like? Are five days? The
difference five days makes? What do

464
00:40:20.599 --> 00:40:22.679
you mean in terms of like,
yeah, Israel was a pariah for a

465
00:40:22.679 --> 00:40:28.599
bit and now like there you know
everyone, oh yeah, yeah, yeah,

466
00:40:28.719 --> 00:40:34.800
that's I mean, and and so
much has happened is happening politically on

467
00:40:34.840 --> 00:40:38.440
the ground as far as the and
and also plans for a delivery of aide

468
00:40:40.039 --> 00:40:43.840
a lot too, you know,
a lot to catch up on in the

469
00:40:43.960 --> 00:40:50.920
in the last few days. So
guys, I know, you know this

470
00:40:51.000 --> 00:40:55.239
will probably be going on for days. Yeah, but but it's good.

471
00:40:55.320 --> 00:40:59.239
Yeah, I mean, this is
just kind of an initial update. I'm

472
00:40:59.239 --> 00:41:00.719
glad. I'm glad you down to
do this. This is great. Yeah,

473
00:41:00.719 --> 00:41:05.880
we appreciate it. Man, stay
safe, keep your head down absolutely,

474
00:41:06.719 --> 00:41:15.039
I'm gonna put my head down right
now. Yeah, everybody, before

475
00:41:15.039 --> 00:41:17.440
we totally go Andy, go ahead, go to bed, like, subscribe

476
00:41:17.559 --> 00:41:22.639
if you're listening to us on audio, rate and review it, patreon dot

477
00:41:22.639 --> 00:41:24.800
com, slash a teamhouse. If
you can't spare any money, the best

478
00:41:24.800 --> 00:41:28.239
thing you can do is like and
subscribe. Tell your friend about it.

479
00:41:28.559 --> 00:41:34.760
Andy, Thanks again, Thanks again, Later guys, later, j appreciate

480
00:41:34.800 --> 00:41:37.840
it. If anything significant comes up
and I don't see your message, call

481
00:41:37.920 --> 00:41:42.679
me hop back on. All right, cool, all right man later later

482
00:41:42.760 --> 00:41:49.360
Jason. All right, guys,
that's it. I appreciate it. Thanks

483
00:41:49.360 --> 00:41:54.679
for jumping on short shut such short
notice. I've never gotten live on Zoom

484
00:41:54.679 --> 00:41:58.079
before, so I don't know how
to freaking stop it. Okay, I

485
00:41:58.079 --> 00:42:01.599
got it, say stop livestream,
Patreon dot com, slash the teamhouse,

486
00:42:02.800 --> 00:42:07.519
like and subscribe. It's very important. We appreciate it. We'll try and

487
00:42:07.559 --> 00:42:10.800
get as many updates as we can
for Andy, uh as long as he's

488
00:42:10.880 --> 00:42:15.320
you know, for as long as
he's in Israel, and uh, yeah, we appreciate