1 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:15,279 This week's trip Cast is sponsored by Texas Association of Community Colleges. Texas Community 2 00:00:15,279 --> 00:00:20,760 Colleges are the state's economic engine for recovery. Our colleges provide credentials to meet 3 00:00:20,839 --> 00:00:27,120 regional and local workforce demands. For more info, visit TACC dot org and 4 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:33,479 watch the Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute's new episode of the Kasik and Keller Conversation 5 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:52,079 series UVALDI one year later. Find it now at MMHPI dot org. Hello 6 00:00:52,119 --> 00:00:56,039 and welcome to the Texas Tribune trip Cast for June twenty third, twenty twenty 7 00:00:56,039 --> 00:00:59,640 three. This is Matthew Watkins, Managing editor of News and Politics for the 8 00:00:59,679 --> 00:01:03,759 Tribute, and today we're going to talk about energy, renewables, the grid, 9 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,680 and what it seems like every Texan can only really talk about this week, 10 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,439 how dang Hotada is outside. Twenty twenty three has been a fascinating year 11 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:17,159 for the renewable energy industry in Texas. For much of the year, lawmakers 12 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:21,920 have been bashing wind and solar power, promising to exclude them from economic incentives, 13 00:01:22,239 --> 00:01:26,159 pushing measures that would have made it much harder for rural landowners to put 14 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:30,120 windmills or solar panels on their properties and pushing for the creation of new natural 15 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:37,040 gas plants, insensibly because renewables aren't reliable enough in high demand times. But 16 00:01:37,079 --> 00:01:41,159 many of those efforts have failed this past year, and sometime this year, 17 00:01:41,359 --> 00:01:45,799 if it hasn't happened already, Texas is almost certain to surpass California as the 18 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,560 national leader for solar power generation. The state is already been the leader for 19 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,680 wind power for years, and, as the New York Times columnists David Wallace 20 00:01:53,719 --> 00:01:57,760 Wells decried in a column earlier this month, even in Texas, you can't 21 00:01:57,799 --> 00:02:02,200 stop the green revolution. Joining me to discuss this today is Doug Lewin, 22 00:02:02,359 --> 00:02:07,959 whose energy whose newsletter on the Texas energy industry was quoted in that New York 23 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:13,919 Times article. Doug is the president of Stoic Energy Consulting. His newsletter is 24 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,639 called the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter. You can find it on substack, 25 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:22,520 and he also hosts the Texas Power podcast. Welcome Doug, Thanks for joining 26 00:02:22,599 --> 00:02:25,240 us, Thanks Matthew, thanks for having me. Yeah, so, Doug, 27 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:30,520 it's not altogether surprising that Texas would lead and wind and solar energy. 28 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:34,680 We've got a big coastline. Half the state is basically desert there's a lot 29 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,360 of sun. We have more land than any continental state. But there are 30 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:44,960 signs that there's a real significant transition going on here. I'm again quoting that 31 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:50,639 article from The New York Times saying that two decades earlier, clean energy accounted 32 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,360 for less than one percent of the state's power. Last year it was more 33 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:59,280 than a quarter. What's happening here in this you know, fossil fuel state. 34 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:04,759 What is what's causing this kind of shift that we're seeing. Yeah, 35 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,080 I mean, well, you put your finger on one of the things, 36 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,840 which is Texas just has an abundance of natural resources. Right. Not only 37 00:03:09,879 --> 00:03:14,840 do we have a lot of oil and gas and the Permian and the Eagleford 38 00:03:14,879 --> 00:03:17,520 and the Haynesville, but we also have an abundance of wind and sun. 39 00:03:17,719 --> 00:03:21,599 Right. If you look at the wind corridor maps, it kind of comes 40 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,039 right down into Texas sort of where the best wind is, and as you 41 00:03:24,039 --> 00:03:28,960 alluded to, the coastal wind, which has a different profile, tends to 42 00:03:29,319 --> 00:03:32,479 blow much better on these hot summer days. And of course sun as well. 43 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:38,159 If you look at where the best sort of solar resources are, again, 44 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,599 Texas, especially West Texas smack dab in the middle of that, but 45 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:45,599 really, you know, won't be news to anybody living in Texas. It's 46 00:03:45,719 --> 00:03:47,879 very, very sunny here, so that's one of the things. But you 47 00:03:47,879 --> 00:03:52,840 know, another thing is the market structure that exists in Texas. It's a 48 00:03:52,919 --> 00:03:58,719 highly competitive market, which and it's based on what's called economic dispatch, which 49 00:03:58,759 --> 00:04:03,400 is basically a fancy way saying that resource that costs the least gets deployed first. 50 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:10,919 And what we've seen over the last few years is the cost curves have 51 00:04:11,159 --> 00:04:14,919 crossed. And what I mean by that is now, for a while wind 52 00:04:14,919 --> 00:04:16,800 has been cheaper, and now solar is cheaper. In fact, the International 53 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:24,519 Energy Agency called it the cheapest source of electricity in history. They declared that 54 00:04:24,639 --> 00:04:28,480 a year or two ago, and that is certainly true in Texas. The 55 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:32,240 only other thing I'd say about this, Matthew, is that I sort of 56 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:38,560 steadfastly and consistently sort of resist any sort of narrative that this is oil and 57 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:45,240 gas versus renewables. A lot of the oil and gas companies are working feverishly 58 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,920 to connect to the grid for their oil and gas drilling operations so they can 59 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:56,079 power them with cheap renewables. This is an integrated energy system. I know 60 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:00,800 it's you know, useful, I mean not useful, easy or habitual for 61 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:05,199 people to think of sort of a you know, us versus them kind of 62 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:10,120 framing. But the way it really works in the energy industry is a lot 63 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:14,000 of the oil and gas folks, you know, want to buy renewables, 64 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,480 and if you look at like geothermal and offshore wind, a lot of the 65 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:24,160 skills, a lot of the knowledge and expertise that oil and gas workers, 66 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,879 that oil and gas executives, et cetera, have, translate really well into 67 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,199 renewables. So you know, I don't I don't look at it as some 68 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:35,319 kind of cage match between oil and gas and renewables. Well, yeah, 69 00:05:35,319 --> 00:05:40,800 that's a really interesting point and one that I've kind of noticed a lot right 70 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:45,399 where we've seen this kind of stance from Republican leadership in this state. You 71 00:05:45,439 --> 00:05:49,079 know that we're going to fight to protect oil and gas. You know that 72 00:05:49,079 --> 00:05:55,040 that you know, the renewable rise of renewables might be in some ways bad 73 00:05:55,079 --> 00:05:59,360 for this you know, economic driver industry in this state. But you see 74 00:05:59,399 --> 00:06:04,439 a lot of these oil and gas companies, you know, not necessarily really 75 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,680 asking for that, right like they want to get in on that Game Tube 76 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,680 and everything like that. So what is it you think that's driving that kind 77 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:16,959 of anti renewable position from from the state leaders. Well, I think most 78 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,240 of it, um frankly, it's just coming from, like you know, 79 00:06:20,439 --> 00:06:26,680 entities like Texas Public Policy Foundation that just have have an agenda and that they're 80 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:31,560 pushing hard. And there certainly are some oil and gas interests that really detest 81 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,160 renewables, but the oil and gas industry is not a not a monolith, 82 00:06:36,439 --> 00:06:44,480 I think though. It's also true that there are a lot of Republicans I 83 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,519 don't know, it's probably not a majority, but a good number at the 84 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:53,199 legislature that fully understand that wind and solar have been fantastic for their districts. 85 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:59,680 Particularly if you're a rural member. You've seen, you know, across rural 86 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:03,120 tech billions. I think we're now into the tens of billions of dollars of 87 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:10,800 payments to landowners, payments to school districts and cities and counties. It's hard 88 00:07:10,839 --> 00:07:15,240 if you're in rural Texas to to attract a lot of different industries there, 89 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,560 but with wind and solar, it is it is where the best resources. 90 00:07:18,639 --> 00:07:24,120 So you're seeing that quite a bit but I just think I also think if 91 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,959 you're like, if you're a legislator and you really support oil and gas, 92 00:07:27,959 --> 00:07:31,759 there's certainly other ways to do it than to bash renewal. There's no there's 93 00:07:31,759 --> 00:07:36,519 no need to like push renewables down to lift oil and gas up. If 94 00:07:36,519 --> 00:07:39,920 you look at where the oil and gas industry is going, right, they're 95 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,079 looking more and more at export markets, are getting paid a lot more around 96 00:07:43,079 --> 00:07:46,720 the world for gas, which means the price of gas domestically here at home 97 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,879 is going to go up as that becomes more of a global industry, which 98 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:55,279 is another reason we should have more renewables to to mitigate against that increased price 99 00:07:55,319 --> 00:07:59,600 of natural gas. Right. Yeah, And there's there's various kind of economic 100 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,399 argument you can make. As you already mentioned, the renewable as are very 101 00:08:03,399 --> 00:08:07,879 inexpensive, right, and so if you're if you're getting those onto the grid 102 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:13,279 that you know would conceivably save consumers money and on their on their energy bills, 103 00:08:13,439 --> 00:08:16,519 which is a big concern and coming you know, these years after the 104 00:08:16,519 --> 00:08:20,519 winter storm. But also, as you said, there's the issue of kind 105 00:08:20,519 --> 00:08:24,120 of land rights, um, you know, being free to do with what 106 00:08:24,199 --> 00:08:28,600 you want with your land and things like that. You've written recently about SB 107 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,840 two sixty four, which was this bill that I believe past the Senate and 108 00:08:31,879 --> 00:08:37,519 would have essentially put in all these kind of new regulations of kind of where 109 00:08:37,639 --> 00:08:41,879 you could build a you know, where you could put a wind turbine on 110 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,960 your property, where you could put solar panels on your property, things like 111 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:50,960 that, and it sort of took you know, used environmentalist tactics against them, 112 00:08:50,279 --> 00:08:54,919 you know. The many kind of viewed it as a if you can't 113 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:58,879 outright ban those types of things, maybe put so much red tape and be 114 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,039 aureaucracy in people's way that it makes it just much more difficult than time consuming 115 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,639 and expensive to develop those things on your property. Like I said, that 116 00:09:07,759 --> 00:09:11,960 passed the Senate, but as you mentioned, it kind of hits some resistance 117 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,679 in a house where there were members you know, along the coastline or in 118 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:22,799 different areas who who you know slowed that down. You specifically mentioned in your 119 00:09:22,799 --> 00:09:30,440 writing Todd Hunter, the state representative UM who represents sort of a coastal district 120 00:09:30,519 --> 00:09:33,879 anywhere. Tell us a little bit about that kind of coalition that UM that 121 00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:39,559 blocked that bill from from becoming law. Well, yeah, and it was. 122 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,720 It was to be clear Senate Bill six twenty four. UM. It 123 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,320 did, like you said, it passed the Senate, it never got a 124 00:09:46,399 --> 00:09:50,440 hearing in the House. But then they the Senate actually attached it to was 125 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:54,240 perceived to be a must pass bill, the Public Utility Commission Sunset Bill, 126 00:09:54,879 --> 00:09:58,360 UM, and again the House insisted that can't come out. And I think 127 00:09:58,399 --> 00:10:03,039 there's a few reasons why the House insist did that come out. One is 128 00:10:03,039 --> 00:10:07,879 what we've already talked about, the huge investment in a lot of these members 129 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:09,919 districts. As a matter of fact, is interesting. Senator Perry voted against 130 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,159 it in the Senate. He has the most wind. I don't know if 131 00:10:13,159 --> 00:10:16,120 he is the most solar. Definitely is the most wind resources in his district. 132 00:10:16,399 --> 00:10:18,879 So it was not a party line vote even in the Senate. And 133 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,200 of course in the House you have a lot more districts, right with a 134 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,000 lot of wind and solar. So I think that's one reason. The other 135 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:30,159 one you just alluded to, Matthew is you know, in twenty twenty two 136 00:10:31,039 --> 00:10:33,600 a remarkable year for a lot of reasons, but one of the biggest, 137 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,720 of course, one of the biggest news stories of the year was the Russian 138 00:10:35,759 --> 00:10:41,799 invasion of Ukraine and that caused gas prices to spike, and so the average 139 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,840 cost of gas was something like six or seven dollars. This is not gasoline 140 00:10:45,879 --> 00:10:50,120 at the pump. This is you know, natural gas right that flows to 141 00:10:50,279 --> 00:10:54,480 power plants and directly into into people's homes for heating six or seven dollars on 142 00:10:54,519 --> 00:10:58,679 average as high as nine dollars. And compare that to twenty twenty one, 143 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:05,000 and most years throughout the twenty tens usually about two bucks. You're talking about 144 00:11:05,039 --> 00:11:07,399 a three x increase. So renewable, the amount of renewables we had on 145 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,639 the system. There was a study by Josh Rhodes with Idea Smith, the 146 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:18,000 University of Texas Energy Institute researcher, and he quantified the savings from renewables at 147 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,080 eleven billion dollars. And you mentioned Chairman Hunter. He started off, you 148 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,159 know, I believe it was his very first hearing where they talked about energy 149 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:30,000 issues, Chair of State Affairs, which has jurisdiction over the power industry, 150 00:11:30,039 --> 00:11:33,679 not energy that's an energy resources in the house, but over the power industry. 151 00:11:33,039 --> 00:11:37,039 And he started off by saying, I don't hear enough people talking about 152 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:41,120 consumers. We're going to focus on consumers. And if you're focused on consumers, 153 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:46,360 you really, you know, renewables are incredibly important because I shudder to 154 00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:50,120 think what our electric bills would have been in twenty twenty two. And then 155 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,320 the last thing about this, Matthew, you know you asked about sort of 156 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:56,360 a coalition that defeated it. There were a lot of folks that were opposed 157 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:01,320 to send it Bill six twenty four. Some of them were some of the 158 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,360 biggest energy users in the state. You know, if you think of the 159 00:12:03,759 --> 00:12:09,720 great big factories, the manufacturers throughout our state, everything from the sort of 160 00:12:09,279 --> 00:12:13,279 you know, older school which you're doing a lot of newer school kind of 161 00:12:13,279 --> 00:12:16,200 things these days, you know, the BASF's, the doos that kind of 162 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,639 thing on through to the you know, the brand new ones like Tesla. 163 00:12:18,759 --> 00:12:24,399 These are huge energy users, right, They are very, very sensitive to 164 00:12:24,519 --> 00:12:28,879 energy costs. The only way they can onshore and bring those manufacturing facilities here. 165 00:12:28,919 --> 00:12:31,600 I mean, you look at Samsung, like the amount of power and 166 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:37,360 entity like Samsung uses. They do not want to see renewable energy slowed down 167 00:12:37,399 --> 00:12:41,279 on the grid. All of these folks, and I can't speak for any 168 00:12:41,279 --> 00:12:43,559 of these folks, and just I want to speak just generally about the manufacturing 169 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:48,159 industry, but but give a few concrete examples, and you just think of 170 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:52,559 the you know, tens of millions of dollars that they're spending every year on 171 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:54,759 energy, and if you get a ten to twenty percent increase in that, 172 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,919 it can really have a material impact on their bottom line. So I think 173 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:05,200 the house thinking of consumers of all kinds, from renters and homeowners through the 174 00:13:05,279 --> 00:13:09,919 small businesses up to the largest factories and manufacturers. You know. The tex 175 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,840 Association of Business was active in some of this and trying to make sure that 176 00:13:13,879 --> 00:13:16,919 six twenty four didn't go through because against you know, small businesses would have 177 00:13:16,919 --> 00:13:22,720 felt the impact. So it was very interesting to see just a wide variety 178 00:13:22,759 --> 00:13:28,279 of different stakeholders, you know, come together and make sure that that bill, 179 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:31,320 which would have really harmed consumers, didn't make it across the finish line. 180 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,919 Yeah, I want to throw at you some of the kind of arguments 181 00:13:35,039 --> 00:13:39,480 for why we should you know, why some people say we should be concerned 182 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,759 about kind of the rise of renewables. The first one being the reliability issue, 183 00:13:43,879 --> 00:13:46,360 and we of course saw in twenty twenty one when the grid winter storm 184 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:50,679 caused the grid disaster. You know, you saw the frozen windmills argument, 185 00:13:50,879 --> 00:13:56,240 and that was you know, pretty widely debunked by you know, many publications, 186 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:00,200 including ours, and you know, natural gas plants actually failing at a 187 00:14:00,279 --> 00:14:03,399 higher rate. We saw a lot of you know, basically all different kinds 188 00:14:03,399 --> 00:14:07,919 of generation kind of loss on that grid. But there's a separate, kind 189 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,759 of bigger picture argument that kind of goes back to what you were talking about 190 00:14:11,879 --> 00:14:20,000 with um with you know the price right, which is essentially wind and solar 191 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:26,200 are cheaper. Wind and solar get bought first because those power types of power 192 00:14:26,279 --> 00:14:33,799 are cheaper. But while you can maybe weatherize a windmill from an ice storm, 193 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:37,960 you can't weather itize a windmill from the wind not blowing. Or you 194 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:41,679 can't weatherize a solar panel for when it's dark outside, which means there are 195 00:14:41,679 --> 00:14:46,840 going to be times when those you know, sources of power are not available. 196 00:14:48,399 --> 00:14:54,200 And if you have all this solar energy going in, you know, 197 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,559 all this renewable energy going in when the power is the most expensive, you're 198 00:14:58,559 --> 00:15:03,080 you know, long term disincinivizing natural gas and other kind of what they call 199 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:11,320 dispatchable power from ending up on the grid, creating a maybe problem where when 200 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:16,080 you are in those emergencies, when you say the weather it gets really freezing 201 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:20,759 cold on a at night, or if the wind stops blowing, you know, 202 00:15:20,799 --> 00:15:24,840 on a hot summer day, that we now don't have the capacity we 203 00:15:24,919 --> 00:15:30,080 need. What do you think of that case? That argument being made by 204 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:37,000 some So there's a lot there, a couple of thoughts. Number One, 205 00:15:37,919 --> 00:15:43,519 we have got to get smarter about having more flexible resources on the system. 206 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:48,320 And this is not just because of renewables. You and I, Matthew were 207 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,240 talking on Friday, June twenty third. There are right now as we speak, 208 00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:56,639 ten thousand, five hundred megawatts of gas, coal and nuclear. They're 209 00:15:56,679 --> 00:16:00,759 probably all gas and coal. I think all the nuclear units are online, 210 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,519 but ten thousand, five hundred megabots of gas and coal plants that are offline. 211 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,320 That is a very high numbers. A matter of fact, according to 212 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:12,120 Urkhot's own definitions, high would be eight thousand, three hundred. Extreme would 213 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,679 be eleven thousand, two hundred. We're at ten thousand, five hundred right 214 00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:21,559 now. Next week we're supposed to see temperatures in excess of one hundred hundred 215 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:25,039 and five degrees all week. So likely more stuff, hopefully not, but 216 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:30,080 likely more stuff is going to break. So all different resources have their their 217 00:16:30,559 --> 00:16:37,120 strengths and their weaknesses. And what we see is with these increasing extremes of 218 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,080 climate that we're experiencing now, you know, we're going to see more and 219 00:16:41,159 --> 00:16:45,679 more stuff break. And that includes the things that are often referred to as 220 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,960 dispatchable. They the things that have an on off switch. They can come 221 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,480 on and off when they work. But in extremes, as we found during 222 00:16:53,559 --> 00:16:57,799 winter Storm Murie, as we saw again drink Elliott in twenty twenty two when 223 00:16:57,879 --> 00:17:03,960 we saw a hundred and twenty percent increase in outages over the course of one 224 00:17:03,039 --> 00:17:07,680 night, the night of December twenty second, things break in extremes. So 225 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:14,119 what we need is not only dispatchability, we need flexible resources that are backups 226 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,079 on our system. And those are backups to renewables for when the wind and 227 00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:22,799 the sun are not strong. They're also backups to the thermal plants when they 228 00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,559 break. We had two lessons in this in the last week. A nuclear 229 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,920 unit one offline on June sixteenth, and very quickly fast acting gas and batteries 230 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:36,240 jumped in and picked up the slack only a few days later, just a 231 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,720 couple of days ago. Earlier this week, a large coal plant about six 232 00:17:38,839 --> 00:17:45,200 hundred megawatts dropped offline. Suddenly again, batteries jumped into that void stabilize the 233 00:17:45,279 --> 00:17:49,640 system. So what we need is more of the flexible resources that fill in 234 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:56,160 those gaps when wind is low or when the sun goes down. But that 235 00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,839 doesn't mean that we should be punishing renewables because sometimes the wind doesn't blow. 236 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:07,359 It sometimes just shocks me at how much policymakers, certain policy makers I want 237 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,720 to paint with the two broader brush. I think it's a very small group, 238 00:18:11,039 --> 00:18:15,519 but it's a small but influential group that policymakers want to sit around and 239 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:21,640 whine about sometimes the wind doesn't blow. It's ridiculous. So so I'll just 240 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:22,759 say one other thing on this, Matthew. As you can tell, I 241 00:18:22,759 --> 00:18:26,640 could, I could talk about this at length, but I but we only 242 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,119 have a limited amount of time. The only other thing I would say about 243 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:36,200 this is the ERCOT energy only market structure that we have right now. And 244 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:40,880 what just so, because I know reader, your listeners may not be as 245 00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:44,279 as in the weeds. Basically, what that means is we only have a 246 00:18:44,319 --> 00:18:48,160 few different pots of money that are available to pay for capacity. A lot 247 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,359 of markets around the United States, they're called capacity markets. They're much more 248 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,839 expensive. They pay for capacity just to sit around on a day and day 249 00:18:55,880 --> 00:19:02,640 out basis. We have a different market structure here and after URIE, at 250 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:07,039 the end of twenty twenty one, the Public Utility Commission made a change to 251 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,519 the way pricing happens. It's a thing called the operating reserved Demand curve. 252 00:19:11,559 --> 00:19:14,799 And I know a lot of your listeners just left. Don't leave. It 253 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,720 just means we pay more when there's scarcity on the system. That's all it 254 00:19:18,799 --> 00:19:22,519 means. They increased that in twenty twenty two. That was a two billion 255 00:19:22,519 --> 00:19:26,519 dollar increase. Eighty five percent of that went to gas and coal plants. 256 00:19:27,039 --> 00:19:32,839 There are ways to plus up what you're paying for. And again, I 257 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,759 don't think we should just be putting that towards gas and coal. We had 258 00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:37,759 to be putting it towards battery storage, we had to be putting it towards 259 00:19:37,799 --> 00:19:42,680 geothermal. We had to be putting it towards demand flexibility, paying customers to 260 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:47,920 shift their usage around. There's a lot of different flexible resources that can make 261 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:52,440 our system more reliable, and we have a market that will incentivize those resources. 262 00:19:52,839 --> 00:19:56,279 But the key thing here, Matthew, and I'll end on this is 263 00:19:56,319 --> 00:20:00,880 we've got to get away from this kind of blaming. It's this resources fault. 264 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,240 It's that resources fault and look to the solutions, and there are many 265 00:20:04,279 --> 00:20:07,839 of them. But as long as we're sort of trapped in the cycle of 266 00:20:07,319 --> 00:20:11,599 renewables, good gas, bad get you know what vice versa. Right, 267 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,759 as long as we're sort of trapped in that, it makes getting to the 268 00:20:15,799 --> 00:20:19,079 solutions impossible. Yeah, you've you've written a little bit about the need for 269 00:20:19,319 --> 00:20:23,039 as you said, more for instance, battery storage of power, which you 270 00:20:23,079 --> 00:20:27,519 know could help you know, when maybe some of that more renewables or other 271 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:32,119 energy is being produced than needed during the day or on a windy time, 272 00:20:33,079 --> 00:20:34,880 you know, save that up for when you needed. What does that look 273 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:41,400 like exactly are we talking about just like massive battery farms. One thing that 274 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,559 you I know have said is essentially that you can kind of turn that on 275 00:20:44,599 --> 00:20:48,839 immediately, whereas like a natural gas plant might take thirty minutes or so to 276 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,880 get moving or anything like that. So what does what does the increasing storage 277 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,400 capacity look like in Texas. So it looks like I think, you know, 278 00:20:56,519 --> 00:20:59,960 boasts. It mostly fits into like two different buckets. One bucket is 279 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,400 going to be a large storage installation, might be fifty megawats, on hundred 280 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,079 megawats, even a couple hundred megawats, and that's going to be acres and 281 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,960 it's just gonna look like like sort of like a container truck, you know, 282 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,240 kind of a container that would go on the back of a truck or 283 00:21:14,279 --> 00:21:17,559 on a big you know, ship or something. You know, it looks 284 00:21:17,599 --> 00:21:18,759 like that, and then you can you can google this as he pictures of 285 00:21:18,759 --> 00:21:21,799 them. They're sort of, you know, put next to each other. 286 00:21:21,839 --> 00:21:25,000 It doesn't take up a ton of space. Um. The other thing it's 287 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,519 going to look like, and this is you know, getting more and more 288 00:21:26,559 --> 00:21:33,519 interesting. It's going to look like vehicles right now on I did this calculation 289 00:21:33,519 --> 00:21:36,599 a few months ago, so it's higher now. But if you just take 290 00:21:36,759 --> 00:21:38,799 the number of electric vehicles that we have in the state of Texas, which 291 00:21:38,799 --> 00:21:42,759 is about two hundred thousand, times that buy the average battery capacity and then 292 00:21:42,799 --> 00:21:45,000 you'd you know, come out with the calculation. On the other end, 293 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:51,759 we've got about twelve gigawatts worth of power driving around and electric vehicles right now. 294 00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:53,839 To put that in perspective, that's enough to power Houston for an hour 295 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:59,200 that's on the roads right now, before we've had a mass rollout of the 296 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,519 you know four f one fifty lightnings and the ribbings and all these that are 297 00:22:02,519 --> 00:22:06,039 gonna have even bigger batteries in them. So that is going to be a 298 00:22:06,039 --> 00:22:11,400 really big deal. And as long as you have the charger that will accommodate 299 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,799 this, that there's the manage charging, make sure that we're charging those things 300 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,759 up overnight and at twelve noon when we've got a lot of solar power. 301 00:22:19,039 --> 00:22:23,279 But then you can actually reverse flow and put that back into the power grid. 302 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,440 So that's going to be a huge source too. And yes, I 303 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:32,519 think battery storage is it already is a major story. These two units that 304 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,440 the one nuke one gas that tripped off over the last week and a half. 305 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:41,799 Storage is already a big story for increasing grid reliability, and that story 306 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,039 is only going to increase as time goes on. All right, let's plus 307 00:22:45,079 --> 00:22:49,960 for a minute and hear from our sponsors. Educate Texas stimulates creative solutions to 308 00:22:51,079 --> 00:22:59,039 key educational challenges throughout the state. Learn more at eedtx dot org and Gravely 309 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:04,519 Unfair Advantage. A lawsuit reveals the tactics Texas insurance companies will use to underpay 310 00:23:04,559 --> 00:23:10,799 claims. Find more info at Gravely law dot com. Okay, Doug, 311 00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:15,440 I'm gonna make one more case against renewables. I know that you're already by 312 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,519 streaming, but I want to ask you the question and you away. I 313 00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:22,319 think it's an interesting one, and that is basically, I think the case 314 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:27,000 that the state's economy is in many ways powered by fossil fuels, that if 315 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:32,000 you look at a you know, a suburban neighborhood outside Houston, you're going 316 00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:37,000 to see a bunch of people living in middle class households with you know, 317 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,240 oil field company trucks parked in the driveway. And that if we get into 318 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,319 a situation where we're transitioning, you know, in large part away from that, 319 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,920 we're talking about a lot of lost jobs. I know that there are 320 00:23:49,039 --> 00:23:55,039 jobs and renewables too, but is it realistic to think that if we went 321 00:23:55,119 --> 00:24:00,119 through a full kind of energy transition that this wouldn't have a devastating effect on 322 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,559 the Texas economy. Yeah, thanks for that question, Matthew. So it 323 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,000 is a it is a really important question. It's a question that is absolutely 324 00:24:07,079 --> 00:24:11,359 vital to the future of Texas. And I think when you when you hear 325 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:15,640 about an energy transition, I think, first of all, it's important to 326 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,599 think about what that word means. Right, we're not talking about oil and 327 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,880 gas going away overnight or even next year, or you know, I don't 328 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,359 even know what the time period's going to be. I think there's a couple 329 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:30,039 of different things going on here. One I think it's very useful to look 330 00:24:30,039 --> 00:24:33,640 at there's an organization called Texas twenty thirty six, and the way they talk 331 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,799 about this as an energy expansion that what we're getting into is we want Texas 332 00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:41,039 to lead not only on oil and gas like we have for a long time, 333 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,119 but we want to also lead on geothermal, on offshore wind, on 334 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,720 wind and solar, on battery storage, electric vehicles, energy efficiency, using 335 00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:56,319 energy, you know, in a smarter way, using software and automated or 336 00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:00,640 artificial intelligence, machine learning, all these different areas of the future. We 337 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,799 want Texas to be positioned to lead in and on oil and gas. If 338 00:25:04,839 --> 00:25:08,759 Texas wants to be an oil and gas leader long into the future. If 339 00:25:08,799 --> 00:25:14,680 that's the intent of policymakers, then do everything you can to get methane. 340 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,960 You know, the vents and the flares that have you know that basically cause 341 00:25:21,039 --> 00:25:25,359 more greenhouse gases. Get those out of the system. Make Texas the leader 342 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:30,279 overall in low carbon oil and gas production. Look at the way Occidental talks 343 00:25:30,279 --> 00:25:33,160 about this, right, Vicky Hall, of the CEO of Occidental says, 344 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,599 we are going to be the oil company that gets the last barrel of oil 345 00:25:37,599 --> 00:25:41,119 out of the ground because we're going to be the most sustainable. Texas should 346 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:47,000 adopt that kind of attitude. And I think if we do that, then 347 00:25:47,079 --> 00:25:52,200 we're actually ensuring Texas' future far more than if we're just sticking our heads in 348 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:56,000 the sand, pretending like climate change doesn't exist, pretending like the entire world 349 00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:03,880 isn't moving rapidly towards decarbonization, towards lower emissions, and basically just positioning ourselves, 350 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:10,480 unfortunately tragically, really to lose in the energy transition. That's what happens 351 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,359 if we ignore everything going on. Instead, if we actually embrace it and 352 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:18,079 say Texas could be the leader in these low carbon solutions, we're positioning ourselves 353 00:26:18,519 --> 00:26:22,640 to have a strong economy, long end of the future, throughout this energy 354 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:27,119 transition or energy expansion or whatever you want to call it. So it has 355 00:26:27,279 --> 00:26:36,119 of course been unbearably hot this past week, just kind of outrageously so if 356 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:41,039 you ask me, and we have had one day this week where Urcott asked 357 00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:45,440 for energy conservation, not great, not what you want to see. But 358 00:26:45,559 --> 00:26:49,640 we also didn't, you know, see grid failure. We didn't see rolling 359 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:55,359 blackouts or emergency measures taken or anything like that. How in your opinion has 360 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,599 the grid held up this past week? And and I guess let's look forward 361 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,079 to next week too, whereas you've already mentioned it's going to continue to be 362 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,519 extremely high. Yeah, I mean, obviously it's okay, there's not there's 363 00:27:07,559 --> 00:27:11,680 not outages, I mean, if you're talking about the past week. But 364 00:27:11,759 --> 00:27:18,720 I definitely think we are not positioned to do well if we have these kinds 365 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:23,680 of these conditions persist throughout the summer. And I do think we've got to 366 00:27:23,759 --> 00:27:32,039 adjust our mentality, adjust our understanding and our attitude. These kinds of heat 367 00:27:32,079 --> 00:27:37,480 waves are going to happen more and more, and we what we are not 368 00:27:37,599 --> 00:27:41,680 doing a good job with, Matthew is managing the peak. And what I 369 00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:45,240 mean by that again, for those that aren't necessarily energy nerds, if you 370 00:27:45,319 --> 00:27:48,119 just like you go to arcot dot com, you look at their dashboard, 371 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,680 you see what looks like this sort of like roller coaster, this up and 372 00:27:52,799 --> 00:27:57,599 down every day and the vast majority of hours during these heat even during these 373 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:03,599 heat waves, we have a lot of extra capacity. But when you get 374 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,200 to that peak, you get up you know, three, four or five, 375 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:07,960 and increasingly as we get more solar, it's going to be more like 376 00:28:08,039 --> 00:28:12,759 seven, eight or nine in the evening because solar is really helping tremendously. 377 00:28:12,839 --> 00:28:18,400 At the top peak of the day, when air conditioners are running one hundred 378 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,559 percent, everybody's trying to keep cool indoors, everybody who can. We need 379 00:28:22,599 --> 00:28:26,000 to be thinking of our workers who are outdoors and how dangerous this is to 380 00:28:26,079 --> 00:28:30,759 them. But for those that can be indoors, those air conditioners are running 381 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,519 at one hundred percent, Solars great. With that, we are going to 382 00:28:34,599 --> 00:28:40,640 need to manage these peaks better and shift usage towards earlier in the day or 383 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,440 later in the day. We were talking earlier about electric vehicles. Right, 384 00:28:42,599 --> 00:28:47,079 if everybody comes home from work at five, six, seven, o'clock and 385 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:52,000 plugs in their electric vehicle and charges it. At the same time, we're 386 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:56,319 going to have problems on the grid. The inverse is true if everybody comes 387 00:28:56,359 --> 00:28:59,279 home and plugs it and they've got a software that says, hey, power 388 00:28:59,279 --> 00:29:03,039 prices are high, things are tight. Are you okay charging for much less 389 00:29:03,079 --> 00:29:08,039 money overnight? Right Would you pay a penny or two overnight versus ten fifteen 390 00:29:08,119 --> 00:29:14,680 twenty cents right now? Then we're fine. We have tons of capacity through 391 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,000 you know, eighty percent of the hours, even ninety percent of the hours. 392 00:29:18,319 --> 00:29:21,640 So that's what we're failing at, is managing that peak. I just 393 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,640 want to say one more thing about that, Matthew. Energy efficiency is really, 394 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,839 really, really important in all of this. That helps bring the peak 395 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:33,240 down. If we're helping people get the most energy efficient air conditioners, these 396 00:29:33,279 --> 00:29:37,680 new high efficiency heat pumps they automatically use a lot less than the older acs, 397 00:29:38,039 --> 00:29:41,599 but they also have inverters in them, just like a battery, and 398 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:45,720 can respond to a signal. So instead of just being on or off zero 399 00:29:45,799 --> 00:29:48,440 or one hundred, which is how almost all air conditioning, including the unit 400 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,160 outside my office right here, that's how most of them work, they can 401 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,039 they're continuously variable. They can go zero to one hundred, so it could 402 00:29:56,039 --> 00:30:00,160 be running at thirty percent or fifty percent or seventy percent and respond to a 403 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:06,400 signal. So that air conditioning management is a huge part of managing the peak 404 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:10,319 as well, and with those things. With that, specifically with managing the 405 00:30:10,359 --> 00:30:15,079 peak, we're awful and we've just we have to do better at that if 406 00:30:15,079 --> 00:30:18,519 we expect to have reliable power throughout the summertime. Yeah, and you mentioned 407 00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:22,640 energy efficiency kind of avoiding waste and things like that, and that was another 408 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,200 thing that I think a lot of people were hopeful that the legislature would maybe 409 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,279 take on and addressing the grid. It's not something we saw a lot of 410 00:30:30,319 --> 00:30:33,920 action on this legislative session. But I do wonder, I mean, with 411 00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:38,480 all the federal incentives coming out, how much it even matters, you know, 412 00:30:38,559 --> 00:30:42,160 how much the state wants or doesn't want to put its kind of thumb 413 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:48,920 on the scale when there's so many kind of other market incentives or federal government 414 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,920 incentives pushing you know, this state and other states in that direction. I 415 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,720 mean, is that ultimately the story here is that there's really not that much 416 00:30:56,759 --> 00:31:02,359 that the state government can do to influence. No, no, I don't 417 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,799 think so, not in my view. I do think that the federal incentives, 418 00:31:04,839 --> 00:31:07,920 for instance, on the heat pumps I was just talking about, and 419 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,880 people should look into this. There is right now a two thousand dollars tax 420 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,720 credit. So if I hope this doesn't happen for your sake, dear listener, 421 00:31:14,799 --> 00:31:18,160 but if you're ac were to break this summer, look to replace it 422 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,680 with a high efficiency heat pump because you can get two thousand dollars tax credit. 423 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,119 That will drive a lot of activity, There's no doubt. But for 424 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,680 the state to just, you know, sit back and do nothing would be 425 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,799 a major mistake. And I don't think it's a question of putting a thumb 426 00:31:32,799 --> 00:31:37,920 on the scale. I think it's a question of recognizing value, recognizing economic 427 00:31:38,039 --> 00:31:42,559 value. The prices we saw this last week, the prices on the market 428 00:31:42,599 --> 00:31:47,720 got close to five thousand dollars a megawatt hour, right, So what we're 429 00:31:47,759 --> 00:31:52,119 really talking about, Matthew, is how do you recognize the value of somebody 430 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,799 shifting their energies. I've been talking about this for the last couple of weeks. 431 00:31:55,839 --> 00:32:00,200 I've been saying folks should be pre cooling their homes. People should be 432 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,880 making their homes cooler at ten eleven in the morning twelve one o'clock in the 433 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:07,240 afternoon, so that they need to use less at peak. If people do 434 00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:12,400 that, are they compensated for it? Is there any value that's delivered? 435 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,160 So if you look at the Arcot dashboard, the price of power at ten 436 00:32:15,279 --> 00:32:19,640 or eleven in the morning is usually like twenty or thirty dollars a megawatt hour. 437 00:32:20,039 --> 00:32:22,680 It's rising into the thousands in the afternoon. But there's no way for 438 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,920 the customer to get that value. So I'm asking them to do that for 439 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,759 the good of the grid, just like Urcott's saying, pretty please, will 440 00:32:29,759 --> 00:32:31,799 you can serve between the hours of four and eight or whatever they're saying, 441 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:40,119 why not actually recognize the value in that action by the customer and compensate them 442 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,640 for it, because then you create a virtuous cycle where more people want to 443 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,359 do that, more people want to lower their energy bill and get paid. 444 00:32:46,599 --> 00:32:49,759 So I don't think it's a question of putting a thumb on the scale. 445 00:32:49,759 --> 00:32:52,680 I think it's actually a question of evening the scales and saying instead of just 446 00:32:53,119 --> 00:32:57,960 the owners of big coal and gas plants and wind and solar for that matter, 447 00:32:58,039 --> 00:33:00,680 being able to be paid. Why not let the customers be paid? 448 00:33:00,839 --> 00:33:05,559 And just one other point on this right now, the big customers do get 449 00:33:05,599 --> 00:33:08,559 paid for that, Bitcoin miners get paid to reduce. Why shouldn't I, 450 00:33:08,599 --> 00:33:13,039 as a homeowner or a renter or a small business owner be allowed to get 451 00:33:13,119 --> 00:33:15,200 paid to reduce? Right? And it's not just bitcoin miners. I don't 452 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:19,279 mean to pick on them. Anybody who owns a big box store, a 453 00:33:19,319 --> 00:33:22,359 factory, if you're a bitcoin miner, any of that, you can get 454 00:33:22,359 --> 00:33:24,759 paid to reduce. The small guys cannot. Why is that? So? 455 00:33:24,799 --> 00:33:27,680 That's I don't think it's a question to put in the thumb on a scale. 456 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,680 I think it's a question of evening the scales. Okay, one last 457 00:33:30,759 --> 00:33:35,079 question, What does the Texas grid look like in terms of sources of energy 458 00:33:35,279 --> 00:33:37,400 ten fifteen years from now? Is this? Are we going to see this 459 00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:44,079 same level of transition? More impossible to say right now? What are your 460 00:33:44,119 --> 00:33:47,839 expectations for the future here? So I'm happy to take a stab at it, 461 00:33:47,839 --> 00:33:52,359 but I will preface it by saying, if you would have asked me 462 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,359 ten years ago what our mix would be today, I would not have predicted 463 00:33:54,359 --> 00:33:58,920 the amount of wind and solar we have. I would not have predicted the 464 00:33:59,599 --> 00:34:05,000 decrees and coal gas actually has increased over the last ten years. I don't 465 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,360 know whether I would have predicted that or not. But predictions are are are 466 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,320 a bit of a fool's game. But I'm but I'm happy to play along. 467 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,559 I I you know, we'll listen to this in ten years and you'll 468 00:34:13,599 --> 00:34:15,559 be like, man, Doug, were you wrong? Um? You know 469 00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:19,599 who knows? Right? We're gonna be surprised to be new inventions. There's 470 00:34:19,599 --> 00:34:22,159 gonna be all sorts of things we can't even imagine right now. But but 471 00:34:22,199 --> 00:34:28,519 I will say I think what we are what we will likely see is I 472 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,760 think one of the one of the biggest things people aren't looking at as well 473 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:36,119 as you know, I just mentioned bitcoin miners, they get a lot of 474 00:34:36,119 --> 00:34:39,199 attention. Uh, there are going to be a lot of other large flexible 475 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:43,079 loads on our system. I think we're going to be making a lot of 476 00:34:43,159 --> 00:34:45,360 hydrogen using wind and solar. So I think we're gonna have a system with 477 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:51,079 a lot of wind and solar where we're using that for things that don't need 478 00:34:51,119 --> 00:34:54,360 to run twenty four seven three sixty five. There's gonna be carbon capture machines 479 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:59,760 I mentioned are occidental earlier. They're already building some in West Texas and in 480 00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:02,559 out Texas. We are going we're a growing state. We do not have 481 00:35:02,679 --> 00:35:06,760 enough water. The Texas Tribute has done a great job, right the article 482 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,119 you guys had the other day on the aquifer and the depletion of it. 483 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:14,079 We don't have enough water. We're gonna need to desalinate water. That is 484 00:35:14,079 --> 00:35:19,039 a heavy, heavy energy user. But you don't Israel As pioneered ways to 485 00:35:20,119 --> 00:35:23,719 make to desalinate water where you can turn the power on and off. Right. 486 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:29,079 It's so you think electric vehicles like we were talking about all the buses 487 00:35:29,079 --> 00:35:31,880 in the state are likely going to be electric within a ten or fifteen year 488 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,719 time period. You don't need to charge them all the time. You only 489 00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,000 need to charge them part of the time. So I think we're gonna have 490 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:42,760 a lot more wind and solar and these large flexible loads and the small flexible 491 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:45,320 loads. We were talking about heat pumps and how they can move up and 492 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:50,440 down. Right, you know, that is how the system is going to 493 00:35:50,519 --> 00:35:54,280 look. It's going to be a system that is much more a utility executive. 494 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,960 I was on a panel the other day and he said, you know, 495 00:35:59,119 --> 00:36:05,960 it used to be that we would forecast demand and dispatch supply. And 496 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:10,280 he said, now what we're doing is forecasting supply and dispatching demand. And 497 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:15,280 I think that is the world that we are moving towards very rapidly. And 498 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:19,639 if and if we do that, we can integrate a lot more low cost, 499 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:28,679 low polluting, no polluting solar and wind and have higher reliability and lower 500 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:34,039 costs and all of these industries the future hydrogen, carbon capture, desalination. 501 00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,880 Texas can actually lead those because we have this advantage of all this wind and 502 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:42,360 sun. Not every state or every country can do this, right, they 503 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,000 don't have that, They're not blessed with the kind of resources we are. 504 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,360 We have that advantage. We should use it and make Texas the leader of 505 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,800 the next hundred years of energy like we have been for the last hundred. 506 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,159 All right, well, we will check in in ten fifteen years and see 507 00:36:55,159 --> 00:36:59,679 whether you are right. Thank you, Doug, as great talking with you. 508 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:04,079 Really enjoyed this conversation. Thank you to our producer Justin, and thank 509 00:37:04,119 --> 00:37:07,880 you to our sponsors, the Texas Association of Community Colleges, the Meadows Mental 510 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:13,679 Health Policy Institute, Educate Texas, and Gravely. We'll talk to y'all next 511 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:27,119 week here from Sylvia Garcia, Sinfronia Thompson, Andrew Murr, John Sharp, 512 00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:31,239 and many others. At the twenty twenty three Texas Tribute Festival, happening September 513 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:36,840 twenty first through the twenty third in Austin, join us for big conversations about 514 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,119 the future of Texas with leaders at the local, state, and national levels. 515 00:37:40,639 --> 00:37:44,159 Learn more at tribfest dot org.