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I think we need to understand,
Okay, where have we been, where

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are we today? Where are we
going? What worked yesterday is not necessarily

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going to be working today, you
know. But we've been looking at the

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big fang stocks and so you know, there's been this saying that there is

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no alternative to like these seven or
eight different stocks that just continue to lead

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everything. You're listening to Carrie Lets's
Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable

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00:00:23,399 --> 00:00:29,000
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than ever, and welcome. This
is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Carry Lets. Well, we got
job numbers, conflicting job numbers that

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came out last week. Does that
mean that rates are going higher? And

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we've got the PPI the CPI coming
out this week. David Drzuski is with

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us now to help us make sense
of these numbers. David, what do

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you make of the job numbers?
What do you make of the upcoming CPI

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and PPI numbers? Will great to
be with you here, Kerry. You

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know a couple things. So in
my opinion, the latest jobs report,

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you know, shows very conflicting information
if you're looking at the difference between the

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jolts and the household surveys. So
just for your your viewers information. You

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know, an ADP, this organization
that just does pay rolls for all these

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different organizations. When they come out
and say, hey, there's five hundred

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thousand new people that are working.
What that's doing is it's interviewing different organizations

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and that's saying, do you have
new employees now that could be full time

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employees, part time employees. As
we look at the household survey, that's

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actually just contacting a household. They
may have two different jobs working part time

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at different places, so they might
count as two on the JOLT survey.

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But when you call a household and
they say, hey, I only I

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have a work I'm working, there
was only two hundred and nine thousand.

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So I think that we're getting a
slowing system here today, and we're transitioning

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right now just to a slower cruising
speed as we look at our economy right

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now. But you know, worker
hoarding is something that that happens here with

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basic economies as we you know,
find ourselves in new places. Right now,

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you know, everyone's trying to wonder, hey, are we going to

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be in another bull market that's just
going to continue to go up forever.

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I'm not personally of that perspective.
I think the macro picture is very negative,

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even though we're seeing you know,
positive increases and certain parts of the

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market if you will, here in
the short term. But you know,

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the last part of an economy to
go is the employment portion, because no

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one wants to fire anybody. And
right now it's very difficult to find really

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good labor and so you know,
people are holding on. But this this

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definitely shows a slowing for sure,
uh in in specifically you know, getting

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new workers and a lot of that's
just gone through, you know, the

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services side of the world kind of
getting into CPI right now. Um.

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You know, I think that we're
we're actually probably you know, we're seeing

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uh, you know, CPI numbers
come down, PC numbers come down.

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Um. I think that it's gonna
you know, we're a long ways off

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from from this two percent number though
that the Fed really wants us to be

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at. And uh and so I
think that we're probably actually going to see

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things, uh, you know,
begin to become more inflationary, which I

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understand I'm an outlier in that statement, but but there's a number of things

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that are important for us to understand
from from that thought process. One Milton

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Freeman taught us that we're printing is
not taking place, inflation is not occurring.

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Well, we're seeing printing take place
at rapid rates right now. Ten

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trillion dollars just went into our our
our our debt here in just less than

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four years. We just committed to
four trillion more over the next year and

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a half. That's very inflationary.
Uh. You know. Additionally, we're

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looking at right now a lot of
things that that are also inflationary. Just

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understanding the supplying demand dynamics here,
and of course, if you affect demand,

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which is basically what the FEDS doing, which is what you know,

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reducing our ability to pump more oil
here in the United States, find new

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minerals and copper and gold and silver
and all those things that have just really

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restrained things here. Those actually cause
bubbles to be in our system and hiccups,

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if you will, that that caused
supplying demand factors and challenges. But

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of course, if the demand continues
to rise like we see and copper as

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a result of you know, all
this green energy stuff, demand rises,

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but we can't explore and we can't
keep up with this trajectory of the need.

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Well, guess what's going to have
with the price there's stewer dollar,

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there's more dollars station, fewer ounces
that are out there, the prices going

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to go up. Now, we're
also looking at reshoring different parts of our

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economy. You know, we don't
even make any antibiotics here in the United

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States. You know, I'm a
type one diabetic and I was told from

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my pharmacists that we're low on insulin
as a nation. Now it's pretty concerning

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stuff, given the fact that type
one diabetics can't live without insulin. And

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so I think we're bringing a lot
of these industries back here to the United

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States, or we're friend shoring them. Uh, you know with other nations

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that you know, can hopefully do
things, you know, lower costs than

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the United States. Good potentially,
But all that transition, all this reshoring,

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those are inflationary ideas. So if
we see a different inflation, it

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is definitely going to be going up, which adds to our thesis of we

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believe that you know, Fed's going
to be higher for longer. We are

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not out of this this winter yet. I think we're actually more like about

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to really be facing some of the
real challenges as the numbers continue to unfold

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ahead of us here, right,
and you can't eventually have to pay the

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piper. So you think inflation numbers
are going to be up and interest rates?

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Are you heading? Hired David?
Is that the final conclusion? Yeah?

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I do. I think I think
inflation is going I mean there's five

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things that move markets. We've got
inflation, it's not under control. We

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are seeing things come down, but
it's going to rise again. We've got

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interest rate environment. There's a lag
effect that's taken place. We just raised

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rates faster than ever before in history. I know your viewers know all about

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this, but you know it takes
twelve to eighteen months for those interest rates

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to get priced in. You know, one year ago we're looking at less

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than one percent of the five percent
that the FED brought in. I mean,

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this is not even close to being
priced into our market here today.

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And so I think that then we
see, you know what the Fed is

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ultimately done. Hey, they're radical, they're raising rates. Who knows what

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power is ultimately going to do.
I think this guy's actually a lot more

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dubbish than he claims to be at
this moment, and so we're seeing a

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lot of hawkish speak, if you
will, as he's talking about raising rates

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more. Again. Hey, we'll
find out what ends up happening. It

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looks like it's priced in to occur
here on July twenty fourth. But you

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know, I think that we're more
looking at a pause right now, and

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we're not going to be looking at
a pivot to a lower rate though.

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That's the part that the market has
dead wrong. And then that gets into

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corporate earnings as the force factor that
moves markets. I think that it's really

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important for us to understand today that
corporations have to borrow at a much higher

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price today than they did before.
Whether we're talking about the office of real

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estate, which is very expensive and
there's trillions of dollars coming due here over

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the next eighteen months, or we're
looking at just corporate America right now and

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so many zombie companies today that require
more cap all to run than they actually

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produce. Those organizations are gonna have
a very difficult time making it in this

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new economy where you know, again
it's it's it's more pricey to borrow,

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and therefore their margins are going to
be compressed. The whole reason why we

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purchase stocks is because of the profitability
or the margin that they're going to make.

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I've seen margins coming down significantly as
the consumers is getting tighter. Right

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now, we're seeing just even the
credit report that came out yesterday, UH

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indicate that it was about a third
of what expectations were as far as new

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borrowing was supposed to go over a
month. So you know, that is

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the lowest level we saw since November
of twenty twenty. So that's a big

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deals we're seeing that begin to subside. And then the fifth thing is geopolitical

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offense. So I don't care whether
we're talking about COVID was the biggest geopolitical

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event in the last you know,
several decades or centuries. You know,

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now we're looking at wars, we're
looking at you know a number of challenges

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here. You know with China now
you know very likely leading a new bricks

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currency, Brazil, Russia, any
Chinese, Saudi Arabia, South Africa,

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Iran, these organizations are these nations
are looking to gather together and rival the

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US dollar today and you know it's
not good for the US dollar at all,

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but yet we're seeing, you know, some strength today. So you

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know, there's a lot of people
that are looking at stuff right now and

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they feel like, you know,
maybe the climate inside the house feels pretty

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good. But if we examine things
a little closer, the windows are broken

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up and all as we did was
just crank up the heat. So we

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can't continue to print and price this
thing. We will eventually have to pay

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the piper. We are looking at
tremendous debt as a nation that ultimately leads

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to taxes. Taxes are demand suppressor, and so again supply and demand are

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are these really big factors that are
going to be playing in here for our

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future and we cannot get past basic
economics. It's just a matter of time.

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So basic economic is eventually going to
catch up with us. That's right,

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most anticipated recession in history. Okay, so what are you doing with

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your portfolio your clients? Where are
you like looking for opportunities or are you

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just battening down the hatches and going
into full scale defensive mode. You know,

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it's a very important question. I
think that how we answer that question,

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you know, is also very important. So I think we need to

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understand, Okay, where have we
been, where are we today? Where

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are we going? What worked yesterday
is not necessarily going to be working today.

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Um, you know, but we've
been looking at the big fang stocks

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and so you know, there's been
this saying that there is no alternative to

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like these seven or eight different stocks
that just continue to lead everything. Well,

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I think right now that there's it's
not a tina, there is no

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alternative. It's now a tea.
There are reasonable alternatives at this point.

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Um, you know, you're getting
paid right now, at least at the

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treasury for short term commitments and money. You know, you can get paid

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five percent now, your personal inflation
might be higher than five percents, so

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you can still be going backwards on
that. So it's not going to solve

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all of our problems here in life. I think that the biggest place that

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we need to be paying attention to
as far as allocation goes, is,

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yes, the risk return assets.
We need to be very strategic in the

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things that we're doing and I think
that we can find out where we are

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in cycles. I think that there's
ways of playing this that are more defensive

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and hedged. But I want to
just draw specific attention to protected assets where

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we would primarily be looking at bonds. You know, most people here today

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are either trying to beat inflation that's
going to be a risk on strategy,

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welling to accept whatever the downside is, or they're going to be trying to

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be protected today and you know they're
going to be allocating to higher percentages of

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things like bonds. Okay, big
caution though, So bonds can lose money

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in five different ways. The one
that we've seen so significantly this year is

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that with all these interest rate rises
that we just discuss, there's a seesaw

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fact between the value of bonds and
in the interest rate environment that we find

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ourselves in. So this is the
reason why Selicon Valley Bank went out of

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business in two days. They had
a run on the bank. They didn't

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have to mark to the market what
their true value was of their assets.

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So they have a billion dollars of
treasuries. Well, actually it's thirty to

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forty percent less than what you thought. You just didn't have to market to

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the market because of some obscure law
that happened in two thousand and eight and

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two thousand nine with the Dodd Frank
Act. Okay, well, there's a

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number of things that are not priced
in today that we're ultimately seen. But

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these protected assets, in my opinion, all five of these areas and reasons

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why bonds can lose money are on
the table, and that's really concerning for

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people that are trying to be protected
today. They're trying to be more conservative,

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they're trying to allay this next whatever
comes, but they also need to

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understand that the sixty forty portfolio last
year had its worst year since O eight,

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and the reason for that is because
of the challenges that interest rates bring

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to bonds. But could you imagine
our bond market here today, just one

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year ago, when junk bonds could
trade at four percent interest, we could

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lend to junk bonds less credit worthy
organizations. How can you not make it

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at four percent? But you're somehow
going to make it at ten percent today,

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It's just not going to happen.
I think we're going to see tremendous

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defaults. I think we're going to
see Chapter eleven's very specifically, which are

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not full bankruptcies, but bankruptcies that
say, hey, debtors, we make

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commitments to you, we can pay
sixty percent of that just help us to

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reduce it. We've got a viable
business who get paid something versus nothing,

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and so that's a real big concern. So where do we go for protected

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assets today? I have this very
simple idea that also sounds pretty obscure probably

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the most listeners, and that is
a growth oriented fixed indexenuity. I can

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tell you right now, based upon
math and science, I cannot prove more

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specifically that there is a better time
in history to own a growth oriented fix

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indexinuity than the present moment that we
have right now. And what's amazing is

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that these this insurance industry is actually
growing at a faster rate this year than

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it has in any other previous year. And so you know, I'm somebody

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that's fallowing the trend. I'm financially
agnostic. I don't care the whole goal

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here, just like the theme of
year, So it's financial survival. You

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know, this is a journey that
we're trying to get someplace, and so

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you know, how do we ride
bowls? And tame bears. Well,

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here's the deal. We've got to
be able to play defense. When it's

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time to put defense on the field. We all know how to play offense.

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And I hope that you know,
the market could go up ten percent

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more, that'd be nice. It
probably wouldn't change most people's retirement. We

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get to drop a thirty forty fifty
percent, which is what I believe is

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coming here in the next quarters,
then you know that will definitely change people's

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retirement. Hey, and it could
very well be a buying opportunity for the

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so called value investor if fingo she
has not to infect extinct at this point.

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Well, David, interesting thing to
chew over here. Your view,

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your take on the market certainly not
what you expect from a traditional financial planning

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outfit. Hey, tell us,
how do we find you? How do

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we connect with you on the web? Again? Sure? So, my

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website is myspg dot com. People
can follow us up. There got a

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lot of different things going on.
We do a lot of educational events.

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You know, we work with retirees
and pre retirees. So this is all

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about making plans for the next thirty
plus years. Taxes are one of the

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most important ways that we can be
doing that planning today. Do not miss

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out on the Tax Cuts and Jobs
Act. We got three D ten forties

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to be able to file three more
years of tax returns to take advantage of

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here it so, yes, we
are not traditional. We actually work on

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behalf of the families that we represent. We're here to try to help to

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make sure that they can ride bulls, tame bears, know what accounts of

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what amounts are going to be drawn
from in order to create the most tax

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opp and lend complants for the rest
of their life. So all right,

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so I find us We appreciate that. And if you've got a question for

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David myself, kl at Kerry Lutz
dot com is the email address, and

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of course you can find a link
to David's site right on our site,

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Financial Survival Network dot com in the
show notes to this interview. Just click

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through. While you're there, sign
up for your free newsletter. David always

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a pleasure, Thanks for coming on. He appreciate you. Carry, thank

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you, thanks for listening to carry
Letts's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's

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00:16:40,759 --> 00:16:45,639
trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survival Network dot com.

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