Not five miles an hour riding to his head. He hopped down first with
the lumpbonius face, and on the very next pitch he up and stole second
face with gretested he wasn't born he had yes, uniforn. Welcome to episode
thirty five of the Prospect B Side podcast. I am made handy and the
Brook is not with us. Perhaps he joins us a little bit later.
Perhaps not. He is out on a tennis court somewhere in Oregon beating up
on some old ladies or something. But kudos to him being active, exercising
better than sitting in your garage talking into a microphone by yourself. I gotta
say we have had a lot of bare activity in my neighborhood. Currently have
the garage door. If you listen to the show, you know I said,
in my garage and do this. I don't know, non zero chance.
We might run into a bear during this episode, but it is too
warm for me to sit with the garage door closed. But I'm glad to
be back. We took a week off because of the holiday. The last
episode we did we got into some pretty boy action and that was just disgusting.
So it's been several weeks since we got into some real b side and
got into some real mudding. I've spent these last couple of weeks getting pretty
dirty. Took the little hiatus catch up and work my way through my list
of players I hadn't watched yet and wanted to or wanted to investigate some more
in the like. I don't think I came across the next Barry Bonds,
but I do think I found some interesting observations, interesting muddy observations to share
with you. But before all that, good friend of the show, Jesse
Severe of the Dynasty Sports Life podcast sent me a question. Good question,
very very sophisticated question, lots of ins and outs, very technical, and
Jesse, if you haven't listened to his show and you play Dynasty Sports of
all sports, you should really check it out. Jesse is a fantastic Dynasty
player. I have to say, he whoops up on me in baseball,
basketball, football, and I don't even think those are his main sports.
I think he's mainly big sport is hockey. I think and imagine he's pretty
good at that one too. But Jesse asked, what makes a guy a
pretty boy? Just a guy making people's prospect list, like Cayden Dana was
picked in the eleventh round, shouldn't he be B side? Can a guy
lose B side status and become a pretty boy if he rises up too much?
Like I said, good questions, But for me, I think what
makes a pretty boy pretty boy is simply popularity, roster percentage, roster at
a high clip in dynasty leagues pretty boy. And I suppose too, if
there's a trendy hot name that might maybe the roster percentages haven't caught up yet
and is making top one hundred list, sure you could slap the pretty boy
label on him too, I think, Jesse, I'd have to say,
I definitely think a guy like Cayden Dana could go from B side to pretty
boy. I mean, I think it kind of has. I think the
inverse could be true too. I think maybe a guy well, I don't
know. I think maybe once you're a pretty boy, you're kind of always
a pretty boy. And yes, definitely I think a B side could lose
B side status and become a pretty boy. I mean, Tovar now is
very highly rostered, right, But I don't know. To me, we
do the sort of like official B side selections before every season at the time,
they will only be rostered I don't know, not created yet to one
to two percent of fan tracks leagues. But I think those guys, regardless
of how it may go, will always kind of be an official B sider.
So I hope that answers your question, Jesse. Like I said,
it's very scientific, so I could understand a confusion to be very educated on
the subject matter to understand. But it's been a good couple of weeks as
far as I don't know. In a way I kind of think a B
side had success story is if you find a guy you think has a chance,
has such a little popularity amongst dynasty owners and they make the big leagues.
I think that's I think that's good. I think I think we call
that a win, regardless of how it may or may not go once they
get up there. But it's been a good couple of weeks in that regard.
I think Matt's Red's bat heard abest up in the Bigs right now.
We saw Kyder Montero, who I think was my first B side arm to
make the Bigs, got a spot start during a doubleheader. Another one of
Matt's sort of older bats that he that he picked out this last offseason.
Trenton Brooks is up with the Giants getting a little run justin. Henry Molloy,
who was a Brave selection after his draft, just got the call.
I don't he hasn't played tonight, but should be getting into a game shortly
here and definitely the first B side bat to get called up to replace a
number one overall draft pick as the Tigers sent down Spencer Torkelsen, which was
surprising, then maybe not surprising at the same time. I think the struggle
has been kind of real for him for a couple of weeks. Casey Schmidt
was a B side selection once upon a time. He's back up with the
Giants. Brett Wisely, who I still have hoped for, back up with
the Giants and swinging it. Another multi hit night tonight I saw and I
don't think that game is over yet. And Emmanuel Valdez had a two home
run game getting called back up a couple of days ago. And Tovar has
been, you know, pretty dang good all the way around. You know,
he's striking out a lot still, but he had the most extra base
hits in the month of May in the National League. So despite the strikeouts
and you know, questionable approach by some, he's still doing quite a bit
of damage. But over the break, I was pulling up a decent amount
of video of a former selection, Javier Sinoya of the Marlins. I know
Matt and I have brought up a few times. Perhaps I don't think we
ever got two into him, but we both identified him as a player that
we just both were kind of fans of, and I think we had both
verbalized questioning if we ever thought he was going to be a major leaguer and
being skeptical on that. I wanted to ask him if he thought maybe we
undersold all that or misread all that, because our man is twenty one years
old in Triple A right now and not struggling at the plate. So last
season he started off in A ball got promoted to HYA, and he started
off this year in Double A where he got in fifteen just fifteen games,
sixty one played appearances, and then they sent him up to Triple A,
where he's played in thirty five games, one hundred and fifty three played appearances.
He's hit a home run. He hit one home run in Double A
as well, this year. Now. Sonoya is a small guy and I
don't suspect home runs will ever be a thing with him, But when we
see what happen, I like to celebrate that on Twitter post it. You
can follow me on pitching specs. By the way, I'd like to post
some video of some things we talk about on the show. Sonoya has stolen
seven bases total on the season. He did swape thirty seven total twenty twenty
three, so perhaps speed is a little bit a part of his game.
We're talking about a very sort of high contact profile man and I both liked
him as a guy who just kind of seemed like he was gonna he is
gonna get the most out of himself, just that kind of like player.
I'm gonna maximize what he's got to work with. And man, his triple
A run, he's only striking out six and a half percent of the time,
walking ten and a half percent of the time. The ISOs A at
one forty nine. He's slashing three thirteen, three seventy nine, four sixty
three on the back of a three twenty five babbit. It's a one eighteen
WRC. Plus he's got eleven doubles in thirty five games and three triples.
Obviously, I don't think we would ever tab so Noya as a future Fantasy
superstar. But I gotta admit I'm just not totally sure what kind of dynasty
value to put on our guy here. I don't know, twenty one doing
this at Triple A. You gotta think being in the biggs is on the
table now and maybe relatively quickly. You know, so so format pendant,
high contact, potentially high ratios, chipping some steals. Defensively, he plays
shortstop and second base. I think he's pretty dang good at him. So,
I don't know. Next time I get to talk with Matt, maybe
we'll bring up Sonoya again and see what his thoughts are. But perhaps a
very sneaky dynasty play here, especially in like a thirty teamer, or maybe
just getting some run, might have a very young capable defensively up the middle
possibility to help out your teams. It's kind of wild player, this young,
having so much success at a higher level, and he's rostered in only
one percent of leagues. So hab your Sonoya, Marlins, I don't know,
help me out. Take a look. What do you think then?
The arm that has a lot of my attention over the last couple of weeks.
And this is totally because someone in baseball hit me up and asked me
about them and started sharing some information and putting him on my map. Is
Ryan Lobis with the Rangers, who just recently got promoted to Hya. He's
a righty with I don't know what you want to call it, a three
quarter arm, somewhat side arm, kind of low, just kind of a
funky release, a funky right hander. But you know, the Rangers,
man, they they're kind of like the pitching spec mutters of the real world.
They have picked out some of the most interesting undrafted pitching prospects over the
last several years, I feel like, but I feel like they might have
done it again here. Lobis was undrafted out of Mercer. He's currently twenty
three years old, listed at six' two, but I've turned him on
a few times. The slider might be an exceptional offering, a real top
shelf, nasty sort of pitch post well draft, I guess post signing last
year he got a little bit complex run. Then he was in a ball
to start this year. I feel like they've kind of eased him into some
more innings and some more pitch counts and stuff like that. He's getting to
start now. He's a guy who in a ball is running a thirty six
percent k rate to forty one percent k rate and high A Now I mean
we're talking it's seventeen and two thirds A ball innings, fifteen and two thirds
high A innings, so still not a lot, but the strikeout stuff seems
there in spades. Now. He throws I think a four steamer and a
sneaker, not real high V low per the data that was given to me.
The fur steamer I believe sits around ninety one. They both sit around
ninety one, but I think shape, deception, release point, angle,
that sort of stuff probably helps that pitch play up quite a bit. The
slider, like I said, is the real nasty and I did see him
throw change up too, so there is a change up in there. But
Ryan Lobis I think he's rastered in zero percent of leagues. I scooped him
up where I could, so take that for whatever it's worth. He may
not be a buzzy name and dynasty world at this moment, but from what
I have been told, he is a pretty buzzy name in the real world
on the ground. So Ryan lobis perhaps a fantastic sort of B side play
right now. So I wanted to touch on those two guys in the front
here. But what I ended up doing the last couple of weeks is it
basically just did a filter, did a statistical dive, and then vetted a
lot of names via video, and I formally did a write up here that
Clegg has and I think he's going to put it out on the Dynasty Dugout.
There's some video included. But what I did is I took a sample
size of about six hundred and fifty pitching prospects who and I know these sample
sizes aren't super large, that had at least thirty innings pitched this season and
last season at whatever levels, picked out some metrics that I like to look
at, and basically subtracted last year's numbers from this year's numbers to just kind
of see who might be making some big jumps at least production wise, and
then tried to line it up with some video and some other knowledge that I
might have about the pictures, basically to see who are the most improved pitching
specs this June, now two months into the season. So then I wrote
up thirteen of them, the most improved and lightly rastered pitching prospects, the
ones that stuck out the most for me in this exercise, in this homework
and might have the most Dynasty interest. I looked at walk percentage, p
percentage, whip x fit, ground ball percentage, swinging strike rate, and
strike percentage. Those are kind of the main divining rods for me. Threw
in a couple other metrics, just more out of curiosity, and then,
like I said, subtracted them all and see saw who was sort of sort
of popping. And I have to say the first arm on my list here
really kind of inspired you looking at these numbers and things. Left hand pitching
prospect of the Diamondbacks, Spencer Geisting threw him on a few times after he
put up some gaudy lines. You know, just in my other Northwest League,
looks have been eyeing him a little bit and he's repeating high. But
he's still only twenty two years old. I don't I don't care if a
pitcher is repeating a level, especially if they seem to be making the giant
gains that Geisting is and Hillsboro broadcast will rave about how much better he is
this season. He's, like I said, twenty two year old. He's
listened at six' four. He was the I don't know, early second
day pick in the twenty twenty two draft out of UNC Charlotte. Now it's
tricky watching lefties in the Northwest League, and especially someone who's been there for
two years. You don't get any good angle to really look at the stuff.
So that's still a bit blurry. But I don't think it is hard
to see how much more interesting he has become, How much more efficient?
How much of a better pitch executioner? Is executioner proper to use here?
Executionist? How about that this season than last his you know, his strike
percentages up from fifty eight point nine percent to sixty five point four. His
swinging strike rate is up four percent. His strikeout percentage is up almost seven
percent. He's basically turned seven percent of walks into seven percent case. Obviously,
the sort of surface level stuff era WHIP x FIP, I don't know,
is x FIP surface level. I'm not sure if you categorize it as
that, but those are all way down. The era is under one his
whips under point eight the numbers on this dive or maybe one outing data at
this juncture. But nonetheless, the fastball slider, I don't even know if
I should call it a slider. Breaking ball. Execution just is leaps and
balance better than last year. I did turn him on some from last season.
But he's another guy. He's two percent rastered right now. It's hard
to think he's not asserting himself as a pretty legit pitching prospect in their system
right now. So, like I said, he kind of inspired this.
I'm like, man, he is. He is so much better. You
know, pitchers developed sometimes, and so I want to see who else might
be developing in a manner that he is. Another guy that maybe helped inspire
this homework. A guy that I've talked about a little bit on this show,
Uhanier Herrera of the Brewers. I mean, just on these metrics,
he has had some of the biggest gains and he's doing it up a level
now now. Granted, I think he's only about twenty innings into his high
a run right now, but you're talking about a guy who's improved his strikeout
rate by almost fifteen percent, has dropped his walk rate by almost seven percent.
I mean, that's like a twenty two percent swing and K minus BBB.
That's that's pretty wild. Walks has maybe been a bit of an issue
for him in the past. He does seem to be getting better in the
execution part. I mean for him, like we talked about, he tends
to pitch backwards. He's got a pretty hard fastball that he doesn't really lean
on or use very much or nearly as much as most guys that can throw
that hard down in the lowers. So I think the secondary execution is a
big part in his developmental gains. Here. He's throwing strikes seven percent more
often, swinging strike rate is up like six point three percent doing this dig
Like I said, six hundred and fifty something pictures, you've got about thirty
that were making these sorts of gains. Production wise, it's an outlier to
be improving this much, and it's even more of an outlier to be improved
this much while jumping a level. The outlook of what he may become is
still, you know, funny a question, quite blurry, but it does
seem like he is sliding into a legit run at being a starter here.
So the twenty year old, big bodied Herrera in the Brewer system is definitely
pequing my interest on this level. Another guy that really popped in the Giants
organization who I'd seen before, but I don't think I had realized how much
his K game has improved. But that's Dylan Cumming. Another undrafted guy the
twenty twenty two class who actually didn't even get signed after the draft. I
think he spent a brief minute in some independent ball, but he was out
of liberty. Giants signed him. He was an able last season, started
off in Hi A, got thirty three and two thirds innings in and then
they just recently promoted him to Double A, whereupon his Double A debut was
pretty good. I watched that he definitely struck out his fair share of hitters.
I think he went like four or four and a third or something like
that and struck out seven or eight. I think I have those cut up
and put in the piece. But my man has increased his strikeout seventeen percent,
which is just pretty absurd. Yeah, walks have ticked down a little
bit, I guess seven point seven percent and high A five point three,
and I guess I mean it's like one an outing. So but I'm not
watching some video from last year in this year. I don't know if like
his execution is really all that much better or different. My suspicion is that
something somewhere in the arsenal there is a much juicier tool making it all play
up better. I think he's always kind of been a slider guy. He's
got you know, he's a bit wiry. Maybe it's just the hair or
something, but he's just like really intense and kind of gives you, like
some Dennis eckers The like vibes. And don't take that wrong, I'm not
saying he's Dennis Eckersley, but just aesthetically and sort of like energetically, you
get a little bit of that feel. But he's got this big sort of
like sideways hook, slower sideways hook that seems to give hitters quite a hard
I think it's very easy to see or just I don't want to say lazily,
but I don't know, just an initial impressions be like, Okay,
yeah, this could be you know, this looks like a future in the
pen, and that very well could be the case. But he's gotten like
I don't know. He just seems to have gotten so good and the Giants
are giving him some more innings, giving him some starts. So I'm curious
to see what they might do with him. You know, maybe we're talking
about a multi inning reliever, a sort of prospect, but you know those
types of guys if they are good at being a multi inning reliever, and
the way the war of attrition goes with pitching, what have you. Maybe
we do see Coming starting in the future here. I don't know, but
I can unequivocally say in this context, Coming is one of the most improved
pitching prospects in the minor leagues right now that isn't rastered at a very high
percentage. He's rastered zero percent of leagues. We were talking about eighteen point
two percent increase in knus BB percentage. He's getting ground ball. He got
ground balls at a fifty six point three percent clip at High A last season
was fifty one percent. He got a ton of ground balls during his Double
A debut. The swinging strike raid has jumped like six percent. He's still
running about a low sixties percent strike percentage. That hasn't really changed too much.
So again I think maybe his stuff might have just somehow got gotten some
more teeth. I don't know. Without without any data on him, I
can't say with certainty, but I'm very curious to see how the rest of
his season might go and how he fares in Richmond, which is a very
friendly pitching environment too, So I don't know doing coming might be putting up
some gaudy numbers the rest of this year. Another guy who caught my attention
that I hadn't paid a ton of attention to. And this might be a
little bit more subtle well than the first three guys we talked about, but
Ray's pitching prospect Trevor Martin Righty's rastled in one percent of leagues right now.
He is twenty three years old, big body, six' five. He
was picked fairly high, third round I think in the twenty twenty two draft
out of Oklahoma State. He was the one hundred and fourth pick overall.
Now he's a you know, higher draft choice college guy, still in the
high A. And statistically this dive, there's there's improvements pretty much across the
board, but nothing real big like his strikeout percentage is up just under three
percent, his walk percentage is three percent better, so has turned some walks
into keys. Era is a little little bit better, his whips a little
bit better. Ground ball percentage is a little bit better, three point four
percent better. His swinging strike rat is about the same. His strike percentage
is up like two percent. He's doing that well, you know, jumping
up a level. Nothing has regressed, if anything, that's all gotten better.
But to me, this was more. This was more. Just like
video review, He's got four pitches, at least four pitches, and I
think he mixes them for an arm to throw a fastball and then a breaking
ball and then a fuel pitch in a change up or something like that.
Like mixing those up is just a higher level of difficulty than the guy who
might just be you know, whipping his big fastball four steamer up there and
throwing in the slider right. Like I see like a sophistication in his attack
with using all four of his pitches that you see him getting whiffs on all
four of his pitches. I've seen him throw some right on the right change
ups, which Matt and I have talked about him. We really like,
like it's just a more overall game here takes you know, some more polish
and some more intricacy rounding form, and I think just from last year,
I think it's just all looking good. It's all on a nice path and
has just become a much more interesting prospect to me long term. He's one
that I think might be kind of kind of sneaking up for Dinas Smers and
like I said, one percent roster and nobody's really in on Trevor Martin,
and maybe it is part of him, I don't know, maybe just having
a little bit of a slower ascension here, but I think, like I
said, there's more sort of stuff here, more more nooks and crannies to
his game to round in the form, so that I don't know, maybe
that's part of it, but I can't imagine a upper level tries is too
far away here for Trevor Martin. Another arm that's that popped here, who
I know has got a little bit of fantasy buzz and has been putting up
some really good numbers, but I think has folks a bit stand offish because
he's twenty four and in high A. But The Guardian's Austin Peterson, who
was the two hundred and seventy first pick of the twenty twenty two draft out
of Yukon. So we're talking. You know, he's still just in his
second full pro season despite his age. You know, the older college pitcher.
Peterson's a big body, six' six. He was in a ball
last year, got in one hundred and seventeen innings. There, I would
say, pretty pedestrian numbers, not horrible, not not anything that would make
me want to run and raster a twenty three year old and a ball.
But he's moved up to high now he's got I think fifty nine innings roughly.
Like I said, this might be dated by one outing. But his
strikeout percentage has jumped eight percent. His walk percentage he's cut down from five
point four percent, which was already pretty good, to just one point three
percent. Right now, that's a He's got a twenty six point nine percent
K minus BB. He's got a whip under point nine. His ex FIP
is two eighty just all across the board. His swinging strike rate is up
three percent is strike percent This is ridiculous. But also I think part of
my hesitation strike percentage is seventy two point six percent, So you know,
it makes sense to a lot of strikes, you're not gonna walk a lot
of guys. But watching Peterson, who I hadn't until this year, ultimately
it's a bit of well, my Adam Maser concerns or questions were grooven.
A lot of strikes. He has the propensity to just kind of live in
the middle third, and I think his stuff is good enough. I think
Clagghead mentioned that his stuff also jumped up, whatever however that might be defined.
I don't know. Obviously, the Midwest League hitter, which there are
some pretty good ones, has a hard time with his stuff. You know.
I think he throws fairly hard mid nineties. I think has a good,
nasty looking slider. There's I shared video from an outing at West Michigan
which has a really nice angle, so a good look at some of his
offerings, but also a good look at how my man earned a lot of
strikes and stay in the middle third and as you move up and as you
get more elite hitters, I don't think you can live like that, and
you know, until he can kind of show it, I don't know if
he's a guy who has the acumen to live on the edges a little bit
more so, I don't know, definitely you can't deny how good he's been
this year, because he has been. But I think I think I kind
of want to see a little bit more in the uppers before I get too
too excited. Here another arm that we have maybe briefly met mentioned in the
past. Here Rangers right hand pitching prospect Joseph Montalvo, who was almost my
Rangers beside a selection this year. I went with DJ McCarty and the way
things are kind of shaken out, I I wish and maybe would have went
with Montalvo, but we'll see, we'll see. But he's a twenty two
year old. He was like a man, one of the last picks of
the twenty twenty one draft out of high school in Florida. But I kind
of liked the look of him from last year. In a ball he went
last season, he went ninety one, or excuse me, he went ninety
five and a third at a twenty seven percent k rate, ERA under three,
a whip under one point two, a lot of fly balls. He's
kind of a flyball pitcher, which can be a bit precarious. Maybe more
subtle improvements with these metrics, but and maybe one sort of gaudier one.
But he's sitting at a thirty one point three percent K rate his first I
A run thirty one innings. The four point three percent increase moving up a
level, he's dropped his walk percentage three percent. That's a seven point one
percent K minus BB increase. Still has an ERA under three. His whip
is even better at one point zero six again, five balls, spatter ball
profiles kind of all the same. Swing strike rate is up just to touch,
while his strike percentage is down just a half of a percentage point.
But I don't think there's any magic new pitch here. I don't think there's
any big velocity gains. I think he's just a young pitcher who has jumped
up a level and met that challenge and is improving. He's got I think
he's got a good fastball. I think he's got a good breaking ball,
a good slider. So nothing real like juicy here from my looks that I
can point to get you all excited. But I think a guy who's just
on the right trajectory here, a plenty of young still and getting it done,
you know, might be making a name for himself in their system.
Another guy, now this was I kind of wish that I had talked about
him a little earlier because he just had a thirteen strikeout performance. But been
watching a little bit of Ibersen Castaigo of the Phillies, bigger right handed Venezuelan.
He's twenty three years old, just getting his first IA run. I
feel like he's kind of been I don't know, maybe a little bit of
a slower burn. He's kind of been going back and forth between starting and
relieving in his pro career. Kind of a weird fangrass page and that repeated
a ball last season and was like produced noticeably worse than the year prior.
But now he's up in High A and doing much better now. These numbers
are before his big thirteen k outing, so maybe even some more improvements.
But a guy who just across all of these metrics has made a little bit
of a trump. He's walking about four percent less, striking out about three
to three and a half percent more. Zra is down, his whips down,
his ex flips down, lions five percentages down eight percent, ground ball
percentages up three percent. He is giving up a little bit more flyballs,
but it's still it's a twenty eight point two percent flyball rate. Swinging strike
rate's about the same. He's thrown two percent more strikes, so nothing too
different there. I'm wondering if a big part of his gains here, maybe
maybe it's a combination of both. But he's proving to be a bit of
of of a spin doctor. I think, like, yeah, I think
he throws two different breaking balls, and I don't know if execution of them
has gotten better or they've got better shape, maybe both. I don't know.
This last outing against Brooklyn Man, these breaking balls were just making the
hitters look look pretty silly. Now, I wouldn't say that Brooklyn has is
the toughest high eight lineup to strike out in the world, but it was
pretty impressive his ability to just get these guys way off balance and some really
ugly swings. And again, you know, when you have a guy who's
who's putting up some gaudy numbers with you know, on the back of maybe
a really good secondary in the lowers, I think you gotta take, you
know, take some of that with a grain of salt and maybe have some
little built in skepticism of how it might play when he moves up a level.
But Castillano is has become much more interesting. I don't think we need
to like maybe sound some dynasty alarms and stuff like that. But you know,
if he's going to be a guy putting up double digit k outings just
to sort of play the game within the game, kind of b side play,
like in a deeper league, maybe maybe that's up your alley. Maybe
that's something you're interested in. But yeah, like I said, just kind
of starting to stack some pretty impressive game logs in the video, doesn't look
completely uninteresting. Another guy who kind of popped here you on Jacob Steinmetz,
the d Becks. This is not a guy without some pedigree. He was
the seventy seventh pick of the twenty twenty one draft out of New York,
and this is just kind of, you know, so big frame. He's
listed at six six live arm. You know that that's why he drafted so
high. Some pretty nice clay to work with. And I just have to
say, every time I turn on or catch Steinmetz, he's just like better
than the last time I saw him. Like every time he just looks better
and better. And it's starting to show. Now, yes he's repeating a
ball, but yes, he's twenty years old. Last year he got in
seventy two and two thirds innings. So far, I think he's about thirty
nine innings. But you're talking about a K percentage that has jumped seven point
two percent, a walk percentage that's down three percent. That's a ten percent
increase in K minus bb darn near cut his ra in half. You know,
he still gives up some contact, but he's jumped his ground ball rate
a little bit, knocked down his fly ball rate five percent, swinging strike
rates up a little bit. Strike throwing is five percent better, which I
think is pretty significant. Fastball, big hook seems to be the gist of
his game north south until I turn on Steinmetz and he doesn't seem better than
the last time I saw him. He's going to continue to have my interest,
and he's currently rostered zero percent. Another guy who popped here was Tiger's
pitching prospect, Garrett Burhen. I think that's how you say it. B.
You are h e nn zero percent rostered two hundred and fifty fifth pick
of the twenty twenty one draft out of Ohio State. He's twenty four years
old. Thisted is six' four and he is now up in Double A,
just got promoted up there this season after roughly thirty High A innings,
which is where he was last season for ninety three and two thirds innings.
Well, he's got I think three outings now three Double A outings in if
I'm not mistaken, and granted, you know, small sample size, but
all the jumps in these ratios I might I'm gonna mention, have all stuck
since he's been promoted. So he seems to be, at least this early
going a guy who has jumped a level and made the gains. But you're
talking about a nine percent increase in strikeout percentage, four percent drap in walks
twelve and a half thirteen percent increase in K minus bb era is down one
point sixty seven, whips down point three, eight x fips down one,
giving up a little bit more flyballs than he has in a little bit less
ground balls. Swinging strike rate is up three point four percent. Strikes are
about the same. He's always, you know, looked to be a pretty
good strike thrower. He's at sixty eight percent right now, was sixty seven
percent last year. I hadn't paid any attention to him last year, but
I flipped him, flipped some of him on from last year and this season,
and I think just when you get a decent look, get a decent
angle. Just generically speaking, the stuff just looks nast year last year.
I think. I don't know if my man did some work in a lab
or something, but he's got a you know, mid nineties fastball and a
pretty good looking firm slider spots it pretty well. Executes those two pitches pretty
well, and he's got another pitch in there. So he's got all three
velocity bands. And I don't know a guy it's pretty new to me,
but has got my interest for sure. Tigers Man, they're doing some stuff
with some arms. So Garrett Burns zero percent rostered. Perhaps some nice little
muddy find here another guy man who I've kind of resisted talking about a few
other episodes, but another Philly here in double A Robinson Pina who came over
from the Angels. I don't know what the story was. I don't know
if this was like some sort of Rule five pick or just a minor league
free agent situation or what it was. I didn't look into it. But
he's twenty five years old, six' five, big guy. I shared
some video of him from early last year and then there and you can just
see the difference in physicality. I think my man has been lifting some weights
his highest level. He did get two different Triple A stints with Salt Lake
City last year. While in the Angels system, which you know angels that
kind of checks out. They like to, you know, push guys along,
give them most challenges. But Penia for a few years would just kind
of show up, just putting up some gaudy lines from time to time.
I watched a good amount of him over the last several years and just like
kind of always teetering on the question like is this a dude? Is this
a guy? You know, just consistency wasn't quite there. But since coming
over to the to the Phillies organization, he's jumped his strikeout rate and half
percent. He's dropped his walk percentage by ten percent. My Man is only
walking three and a half percent the batters this season and that is such a
huge gain for him. A strike percentage increase of almost eleven percent, that
is top of the scale in this dive here, swinging strike rate has increased
by two point two percent. He's gone from a ground ball pitcher to a
fly ball pitcher and having you know, success with that. Shared some stack
cast stuff from him and some video that points out he has a very different
arm slot than he did early last year with the Angels, and the fastball
movement is very different. He has a lot more armside run to it.
But this is not a situation where he went to a new organization and has
this new look. This was actually an evolution that was taking place last season.
I also shared some video of him during his last as Salt Lake City
start and you can see that it was drastically different than early in the year.
So is Pina guy that I'm rushing out and rostering in deep leagues?
No? Is he a guy who does he have a major league chance?
I think so, especially if he's pitching like this now to what extent who
knows? I think the big league dream is revitalized here and you can't deny
that he is one of the most improved pitching prospects out there. Another guy
that I finally got around to watching that I kept meaning to is the Royal's
Walter Pennington, who if you do a K percentage search you will see he
is striking out a ridiculous forty one percent of batters this season. The first
time he was mentioned on the podcast, Matt Well kind of joked around and
he had no idea you know who this was. Neither did I. When
you're talking about what he's twenty six years old out of the Colorado School of
Mines, just down the road here, undrafted, free agent, rostered and
zero percent of leagues. He's a soft toss and lefty. His sinker averages
ninety two point eight, which you know, actually for a lefty, it's
it's not really that soft. When you consider the average lefties fastball in the
major leagues. I think it's like ninety three point something. But you're talking
a fourteen percent increase in ks, three percent dropping walks, it's a seventeen
point one percent increase in K minus BB. It's pretty wild. I mean
he's been he's been dominating one point ninety three er, a point eighty six
whip the season of ground ball rate of fifty two point one percent, four
point four percent increase in strike percentage since last year. The big thing here
that is obvious, and I shared some stackcast stuff and what have you.
I think a big part of making this all work is he has added a
cutter that he threw to right handers. Last year he was a slider sinker
guy, and Righty's got him. That cutter has made all of this jrump
I shared usage changes and fifth percentage changes and CSW and all that sort of
stuff. Now he has been relieving, so you know, that definitely dampers
some dynasty interest. But he's starting to get more innings, longer outings.
They're starting to up his pitch counts where I think his last inning he went
three innings and I think got to like shifty pitches. So sure, maybe
the obvious trajectory here is as a multi inning reliever or just a major league
reliever if it, you know, continues to all go well. But like
I said when we were talking about Herrera, you know a multi inning reliever
who does really well in that role, maybe the door on being the starter
isn't totally shut. If it's all about how well you execute your best pitch.
I think Pennington checks that box big time. And then just the last
two guys. I added a couple more guys in the write up. I
won't get in to them too much here have already kind of talked about both
of them, I think, but Aaron Davenport and one Daniel and Canarcion I
think are both markedly improved. They haven't gotten me super interested dynasty wise yet,
but they were kind of some honorable mentions included in this piece here.
So that was, uh, you know, as lame as it might sound,
was was kind of my main focus and what I spent the last couple
of weeks getting into the muddy can lack glory, but we'll we'll see here.
You know, obviously there's not a lot of dynasty interest in these arms,
but I think they're I think they're interesting, and I got my eye,
I got my I think uh, I've rostered a few of them in
my deeper leagues. Which prospects are getting picked up the most? This last
week I got to say, the numbers, the percentage increases this time of
year getting to the beginning of June, are much smaller than they were at
the beginning of the year. I think we're entering a part of the season
that I think it's really fun and interesting for us mutters. There's been you
know, some trendy names for a few months, guys who had some loud
introductions to pro ball and the like. You know, you got your Jona
Tong's, your Zwie Matthews. You know those types of guys, your classes,
and those guys are rostered up and people are going to hang on to
them and see and so maybe there's some less less churning and burning happening,
and I think that's reflected in some of these numbers here. But that's when
we start digging on the guys like I was trying to mention, and you
know, gains and developments that might be a little bit harder to see than
a guy's numbers his first month or two of a season. Right, But
nonetheless, Matthew Lugo Red Sox prospect is up two point nine percent. Tobias
Meyer is still prospect on that I think he is, but you know that's
not surprising. He's getting some major league run. He's up two percent.
Brandon Sproute, who I know in the Dynasty dugout. There's a lot of
chatter about a guy that highlight out of this first year player draft. He's
into some extent. He's up to point two percent a total of fifteen percent
now probably would have been a really good b side choice. Trey Morgan,
I'm pretty famous from his LSU run, putting together a nice season. He
is up two percent a total of eight percent. Screwballer guy with the Cardinals,
Gulian Nelly, I think is what you say, is up two percent.
He went from zero to two percent this last week. That screwball looks
nasty and it's getting a lot of attention. Just me personally, that doesn't
seem sustainable to me. I haven't taken a close look at how he throws
that pitch, but I was very invested in Martin Perez back in the day
when he threw a screwball, and that just wasn't a sustainable pitch for him
and his UCL or his arm oh mentioned at the top Justin Henry molloy,
who's got the call, is up two percent. He's at thirty three percent
total. Yilber Diaz still some people happen on that train. He's up two
percent total of ten percent. On Janeo the Guardian system is up one point
seven percent a total of five percent. Folks get a little more interested in
my guy. Kevin mcgonagal. He's up a percent and a half. Cader
Montero probably because you got the call is up a little bit, But yeah,
that seems to be the trendiest. I see. Spencer Geisting, who
we talked about, is uper point seven percent a total of two percent.
Now, so I'm not the only one getting in on some Spencer Geisting,
but yeah, those are those are the most trending prospect pickups of this last
week. As far as next week, what I might be watching in the
International League, probably again, I don't watch a ton of Triple A,
but Jacksonville is at Charlotte. I want to see some more Javier Sonoya.
And then Sean Burke is back, and he pitched pretty well his first Triple
A appearance of the season. And he's a guy that I liked more than
Justin Steele heading into what last season as kind of a maybe sneaky good pitching
prospect close to the Biggs, and I was happy to see him not rostered
in a few leagues, and I picked him up when I did the White
Sox Top Prospects for Clegg. I know, I kind of shoved Burke up
there, because you know, I'm not a guy who just forgets about injured
pitchers that are good in the PCL. Man I had I had Las Vegas
at all Passa because I wanted to, you know, see how Maser fared
against a lot of young bats in Las Vegas that are just back from the
bigs. I thought it would be a really good test for him. But
you know, Maser is getting call and it sounds like he is going to
start tomorrow, so he gets to go up against big leaguers still in the
big leagues, So that'll be fun. In the Eastern League, Hartford is
at Somerset. Whenever Hartford is at Somerset, that's probably my favorite Eastern League
series to watch. Both have you know, exciting prospects Augustin Ramirez versus some
pretty good pictures for Hartford, see how he fares again. Texas League Frisco
at Corpus Christie. Surprisingly just a team numbers wise, Frisco has the best
pitching staff in that league, and I want to see how this mister irrelevant
goes against the best pictures and is the best staff in his league. But
herraras so with the Astros, the last pick of last draft, who's up
in Double A and swinging it, I want to see how he does against
them. Southern League, you know, and we're getting to the point of
the league. We're starting to get repeats in smaller leagues. You know,
some of the same series just continue to be the most interesting. But Birmingham
is at Tennessee. You know, good Birmingham pitchers versus a good Smokey's lineup.
Sale League. Jersey's Shore is at Greensboro. There's a lot of good
Jersey Shore pitchers right now. And I want to see how Charles mcadow's week
goes. I bet you he gets his because mcadow is legit. He is
good man. Who knows maybe maybe he moves up to double A. And
we don't even get to see these matchups. Northwest League against slim Pickens,
but Hillsborough at Spokane probably the two most interesting talented teams in the league.
I think Contaceelo and Pintar and those guys get to go up against Dolander and
Sullivan and all that. Midwest League. Man, Lake County at Beloit.
I'm excited for this one. You know that Matt and I are like the
Lake County lineup. You got what Nate Furman and Capus and Mooney Ingle has
been really good. But we get to see Noble Meyer and White versus that
really good Lake County lineup, so that'll be their toughest protests so far.
I want to see how that goes. In the Florida State League, you
got Clearwater at Bradenton, so this is a chance to see Davis Graves and
George Glassen from that really good Bradington angle. In the Carolina League, we
got Fayetteville Columbia. Neil Marrachoa has settled in nicely, is a really interesting
bats with potentially some big upside. But he's going to get to go up
against some I think, some pretty good A ball pitchers for Columbia. But
then in the Cal League, you know, Fresno's at Modesto, so again
we get to see how Matt's nuts might do against those pretty pretty good for
the level Fresno pictures. So I don't know that's that's enough of me talking
at youra. I hope Matt won his his tennis match against the six year
old women that he's playing against. He should be back next week. I
want to ask him about a few of the guys that we mentioned and see
what he's been watching. It's been a while since we've gotten some word on
what his muddy might be looking like these days. You can follow me on
Twitter at pitching specs, share some video, and if you were interested in
what some of these pictures that I talked about tonight might look like, check
out the Dynasty dugout. I think Cleig is gonna put that piece up I
don't know, sometime soon here, and if he doesn't, I'll just share
it on Google Docs via Twitter. But we'll let Chicago farmer take us out.
Be well, Matt Volbel, so have your mind for me and we'll
talk to you next week. Ladies and gentlemen. We got him five miles
an hour, riding to his head. He hopped down the first with the
lump on his face, and on the very next pitch he up and stole
second face with gradest speed. He wasn't born. He had the dirdy yes, nifarn