Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step hit on stay lot f goshoo. Here's your hosts, Jesse Sevier
and Victor noon Yo Fantasy and Hockey Live back once again to talk about the
wonderful world of dynasty. Fantasy Hockey. Is me Jesse Severe of fan Tracks
and Victor noon Yo of DABB Prospects. How you doing, Victor? I'm
doing awesome, Jesse, definitely enjoying some pretty hot weather out here. Has
it been hot where you are? No? Well, you had some heat,
we had some kind of misery midweek, and now the cool has broken
through and we're back to some decent weather here in late Wisconsin July. But
the summers it's winded down. The summer is going fast here, Victor.
I don't care for this at all. It's gonna be freaking cold and desolate
looking out there before before I can talk. And why am I looking forward
to the negative here? I don't know, but that's just how I'm wired.
It just never happens in California, right, you just have like glorious
weather you're around like you're in a dome or something. It's pretty glorious,
I would say. But it definitely has been pretty hot, a little unusual,
especially those of us near the coast. But it also is not nothing
to complain about, so we're good and yeah, definitely happy with that.
Although I did spend a week up in the mountains and it was like a
hundred degrees and it was super not fun for that part, But then we
were hanging out in the lakes and the rivers and it was there were still
snow. We were playing disc golf actually at Kirkwood, Jesse, and there
were mounds of snow in July. It was crazy. I didn't my brain
didn't understand it. But the kids making snow men. It was mostly icy
snow, but trying to make snow men out of this icy snow in July.
It was weird. So you're telling me you were in a mountain with
one hundred degree heat and snow, Victor Nut. There's something that doesn't compute
about all this man tell me about it. Parts these parts that had snow
still were shady, and that part was not a hundred. It was more
like eighty eight or eighty seven degrees still pretty hot, but yeah, no,
there was definitely big mounds of snow in the shade. It was crazy.
It was actually great because it was so hot. I was just like
taking the snow and just like rubbing it all over my head and stuff.
It was cooling down. It was a really nice way to cool down when
it's that hot out. I highly recommend it. California. California's Yeah,
the California's drunk. There's something wrong up there, Victor. One thing that
is not wrong. One place that you'll always be able to find cool in
wonderful climbs, in an environment amenable too fun is our discord server. All
you have to do to join up with that is hit Victor or myself up
Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com at fan Hockey Life is me at Victor
Nuno twelve is Victor at the dead Bird site where you can still get a
hold of us at present and there is good hockey talk, fantasy hockey talk
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very few places, it seems like, out in the world where you can
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want to support, if you want to do some things beyond that, Victor,
the Patreon is a great opportunity to get into a whole bunch of stuff.
Why don't you tell people what is going on over there? Oh well,
do let me pause real quick for a second. Yeah, lots of
great stuff going on at the Patreon. We have patron Cast going on.
We have Top ten lesson you can listen to for each team, which I
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You can have draft advice a lot of you are going through your rookie
drafts. You can feel free to do dm me if it's a perk that
I reserve for patrons, and the Tier Dynasty is a really cool thing that
we have set up and we're rolling into the next season. We're reorganizing some
things a little bit. It's gonna it's gonna have real tiers like one through
four at the end of at the end of this upcoming year. So it's
gonna be a really great time. There's a lot of information about it.
We definitely could use a few more gms. If interest in taking your dynasty
competition to the next level, it's I would highly recommend you check it out.
And if you want to see something really cool, just do me favor.
Do this type in www dot Fantasy Hockeylife dot com, forward slash tidy
t I d y and just see what happens. I love it. Yeah,
these are intense fantasy hockey players. Don't feel like you have to be
some kind of professional. Look, this is it's not for a whole bunch
of money. This is if you're a patron. You play it, but
you play it for the love of the game. And so I would recommend
that people come in and check that out. But don't feel like it's intimidating.
It's just a whole lot of fun and there's a whole lot of very
good dynasty players and you meet a lot of fun people while you're at it.
So I hope people will give that a try. And another thing we're
gonna give a try is we're gonna take a break. Right now, come
back with our guests. We welcome to our show. A man from the
Winnipeg Sun, ready to talk some jets. Scott Billick, How you doing?
Today's Scott doing good? Guys? How are you guys doing good?
Good? Are things sunny north of the border? I assume you guys already
have two feet of snow up in Winnipeg at this point, right, No,
it's actually quite nice right now. I don't know what thirty is,
thirty celsius is and fahrekneit. I think it's in the nineties, mid nineties
something like that. I could be wrong on that, but yeah, we
haven't you, and we usually have because we're in the middle of Canada.
Essentially, we're in like the Prairie region and it's always hot here and then
the summer like really hot. So yeah, yeah, we have really good
summers, but they only last four months, five if we're really lucky,
and then yeah, we started getting cooler and yeah, and then obviously,
as you suggested earlier, the snow starts coming and that's our that's our long
extended winters. Yeah, hopefully something that stays a little warmer and doesn't get
colder and colder are the Winnipeg Jets. I'm a little worried about this era
of the Jets, whether they have hit a peak or and this is where
I'm gonna have to get your opinion on it. We've got a lot of
changes coming for this year's team. Pierre Luke Dawap, like Wheeler gone a
season. After the season where Wheeler lost the captaincy trade, rumors abound around
the franchise goalie who we will be getting to and there might be an argument
from moving a couple more expirment contracts if there's a risk that they aren't going
to return. Last year, the odds start out stacked against the Jets in
the Central, but the Jets climbed as the Preds, the Blues, and
the Flames really fell through the floor. Lucisian's model showed the Jets way below
all those teams at the beginning, but at the end, of course,
they made the playoffs and we're the first ground foil of the eventual Cup champs,
the Vegas Golden Knights, who took them down. Unfortunately, I should
see. Unfortunately, I'm in my show in my hand. There's a fair
bit of handwringing at the end of last year. I saw in the press
up there over a slight sag in ticket sales down to fourteen thousand from fifteen
three or something like that. But where are the Winnipeg Jets headed with their
offseason moves? Is their risk we'll see some of the better players on the
team move this year or will the outcome of this offseason be a better seat
even in next year's playoffs. Yeah, I don't know if it would be
a better seat in next year's playoffs, but that I think the moves that
they made this offseason moving Pierre Wall was kind of year forced into it.
We've seen that before with the Jets, with guys like Andrew Kaw, Jacob
Schruba, even going all the way back to Evander Kane. But you have
to look at it in a way that, Okay, you weren't going to
keep Dubas, so you get a big return from La with Gabe Vilardi and
Alexei Fellow. Rasmus Kompari is also in that deal in the second round draft
pick next year. But you look at that it changes the complexion of this
team. One of the problems with this Jets team for a long time is
that they've been very top heavy, right and they've had very good two top
six, two top lines. The top six has been very good, but
the problem with their bottom six is that they just aren't right. Like they
just they don't produce. They can't rely on the third line for scoring.
They can't really rely on the fourth line for much more than four to five
minutes a night. Changed a little bit last year, but even then it
wasn't enough. So this trade, at least this trade so far has allowed
them. If you look at four lines that the Jets have right now projected,
it's deeper, and so that's good for the Jets. Now. The
problem is you've just you've subtracted it. Blake Wheeler obviously it was thirty sixty
be thirty seven at the end of this month, but he was still putting
up a point essentially a point per game, even though he was obviously father
times undefeated, and he was losing that battle of starting to at least had
been for the last couple of years. But Dubo is a big loss because
you've lost your second line center arguably your top line center, depending on how
you look at last season how it ended with Mark Schifley kind of on the
wing for a little while. So that's a big blow. And there's a
guy who scored almost thirty goals last year, had sixty five sixty three points
I think sixty five somewhere in that range for Dubois. You're taking that out
of the roster or the lineup. You're taking Wheeler's fifty five points out of
the roster. So that's difficult. This Gabe val already gonna make up for
that. Is Alexiofalo going to make up? Do they need to make up
for that completely? If this team is better defensively, which has been a
big spur in their saddle, because that's often been the big critique of this
team is, yeah, they have all of the offense in the world that
you could ask for, but they just don't have the defense. And they
have the all world goaltending and Connor hallibut, it's hard to say are they
going to be better, are they going to be worse? Are they going
to be better because Blake Wheeler's out of the equation now. One of the
problems with Blake Wheeler was They took away this captaincy from him last year,
but he was still the de facto captain that was made known at the end
of the season by many of the players, So they didn't really change anything.
You stripped somebody the captain see or hoping something changes, it didn't have.
Still Blake Wheeler's room been a bit of a dark cloud with Blake Wheeler
in the last couple of years. It's just always been his room and it's
been difficult for a lot of the younger guys, the younger leaders on this
team. It's lurish. It's interesting because there's gonna be like this moral change
in the room that this kind of shift in leadership and that sort of thing,
and there's just a lot of these unknown variables that you don't how it's
actually going to affect the team moving forward. I think there's positives here that
other guys will be able to step up into leadership roles. But on the
ice, like just the caliber of the team has gotten somewhat worse with losing
two players that put up over a combined think around one hundred and fifty or
one hundred sort one hundred and twenty points combined. So that's where there's a
lot of unknowns about the Jets is here and we still don't know and we'll
talk about it. What happens with Mark Schifley still a month and a half
to go till the training camp, and what about Connor Hellbock. I lose
Connor Hellibuck, the whole complexion of this team changes because Connor Hallibuck, regardless
often have how this team plays puts them into at least the conversation of a
bubble team in the playoff, in the playoff race, and and so that
that's where we're at. We're waiting and seeing it's been very quiet, and
we all know the trade market and we have these big trades done on Sunday
here with Eric Carlson moving and that all that stuff going on, but the
market for Schifley and even Connor Hellibuck based on the flat app both guys looking
for significant races from their current contracts. It's been difficult as they're a year
out from unrestricted free agency to try and trade these guys. And then the
teams aren't lining up as I think the Jets kind of expected they might this
summer, and so that's thrown a wrench into perhaps this overhaul of the culture
and the just a team at the ice every night. So we're yeah,
over here in Winnipeg. It seems like everybody's in just this bit of a
state of kind of flux, right, are just waiting to see what's going
to happen, because it's looking more and more like Shifely and Hellibuck are going
to actually start the year with the team and then see where it goes.
But that creates its own problems, And wouldn't sin if you get to the
trade deadline and these guys aren't going to resign with your team and your teams
let's stay in second place in the Central Division. Do you cut bait because
if you don't, you're going to not get anything for them, or do
you just go for it and a team that needs the gate revenue you mentioned
earlier about some of the woes and ticket sales, and that's thing a deep
playoff run which they didn't get last season, losing in Vegas to five games.
But that's good for business, right, But good for business, especially
if we get to the trade deadline and these guys are still on the team.
The long term health of this team would suggest you would want to trade
guys like that and not go let's say the Columbus route where you hold on
to Bobrovski and you don't get anything for them, and then you spend a
couple of years figuring out where you really are and trying to rebuild from that.
And Yeah, the Jets are in a spot that I don't want to
call it precarious, but it's just an interesting time. It's an interesting time
because this summer was supposed to be one of big change and it feels like
the job is half done. And that's where we are. It's August six
when we're recording this, and and yeah, that's where we're at right now.
It's just waiting and seeing what's going to happen. Is the market going
to shift, Is something going to help shift the market in favor of the
Jets and the favor of a seller, because it's just not the market right
now, but what we're waiting for and what the Jets are clearly waiting for.
Yeah, right now, way through the offices. Yeah, so let's
talk about some of the guys who were pretty sure will be there next year.
Kyle Connor, start of the team, he didn't quite hit the scoring
heights of the prior year, but his point per game three and a half
shots season with a power play point every three games, perfect attendance of eighty
two games great times for US fantasy folks. Second straight year, Connor led
the team in scoring, and the with or without your charts out there showed
that he basically made every linemate better offensively when they're out there with him,
but tended to maybe drag them a little bit the other direction defensively, So
this defense doesn't seem to be quite his forte At least these stats are to
people leave. The Jets are did well locking him up at seven million plus
through his prime years, and he climbed his way to the top of the
depth chart. Some of the other elite players in the team have now gone
away, like you said, and are not being replaced by others with equal
offensive pedigree. So basically, it's kindor going to keep up this high shooting
point per game scoring type of game with all the roster changes. It's a
good question because who does he play with on at left wing going into the
season. I think one of the one of the things we've known about the
Jets in previous training camps because they've had so little change in their top six,
is that we know who's going to play with who, and especially with
Dubois here, Kyle Connor him for pretty good partnership on the ice and it
helped in a couple of years ago to put to give Kyle Connor. I
think it was ninety three points that season, which is the highest total in
this franchise history, not obviously Jets one point zero, but Jets two point
zero. So we'll see, we'll see. I think the thing with Kyle
Connor is that he's made these steps into a play driver, right like he's
you mentioned that his offensive metrics and day they are good, and that's the
one thing about him he's turned into this he can drive the play where before
he was with Schiff, Lee and Wheeler in the early days for his career
and it was his job to do that. A couple of years ago showed
that he can really kind of step out and put forty seven goals up in
this league and just showed his capability and not necessarily needing somebody to just always
help him get there. And that's been a big plus for this team.
But you don't have Dubois this year, and so are they going to go
with are they going to go back with Stifle if Schifle even here, man
if Stifle is not here, And now they're looking at either Cool Priffetti at
center. Gave Valardi obviously is in that mix as well. So we're looking
at a season of again unknowns with this team. Potentially he could play with
Shiflee and they played well before. Again they always knocked against Kyle Connor and
a lot of these guys on forward, at least in the top six,
is just their defensive abilities. And they're very trigger happy, very good in
the offensive zone, but the defensive zone is where they struggle and it hinders
this team. But I do think that Kyle Connor has even last year with
this team being as good as it was early on in the year, I
thought, maybe the metrics aren't probably going to show this, but Kyle Connor
actually played better defensively than because I think he realized the one thing about Connors,
He's matured a ton in the last few years. He realized that if
I sacrifice a few goals here, maybe it'll help a few goals and be
the defensive end to keep them out of their own net. So I'm interested.
I'm interested again with a lot of this stuff. I think Kyle Connor
has just this his baseline's thirty goals, right, He's going to get your
thirty goals. I think he's done so now for the last six or seven
seasons. It's something. It's a it's a long streak. I don't that
might have changed during one COVID year, but you don't. I'm not really
counting that that shortened season. But yeah, I think that he'll be as
dangerous as he always is, a focal point on the power play, all
those things. But I'm just I'm interested when training camp comes, where Rick
Bonus sees him, who he's partnered with, and if it's not Mark Tife,
somebody else like a Volarti or whatever Proffetti, can they get that chemistry
going. Can the one thing about Ky Connors how fast he is, his
foot speed is descride. Everything is elite, let's let's say, And I'm
not sure cold Proffetti can keep up with that. He's just not the He's
not the speedy two way center that Dubois was or that Schifely even can be.
So it's a bit of a bit of an unknown, but I think
for sure, at the end of the day, cal Connor is going to
give you probably a point per game average roughly around that. He's going to
score thirty goals, so that's the baseline. And if somebody else can help
him unlock that potential fifty goal potential, it's their for him, right,
It's just all going to depend on his center mostly. And you know how
this team kind of views because they took a step back where they got better
defensively last year as a team, but that did sacrifice some offense. So
it depends on does this new team, this new look top twelve all four
lines, is it just an better defensive and are they going to play better
defensively? And can they now stop focusing so much on defense because they have
to and just maybe start letting some of these guys move up the ice and
be a little more creative. Let's say. Yeah, so Mark Schifley,
you mentioned him, he crossed over the age thirty at the end of the
season. He's got one year of contract left with the team. His bash
block splush shots plus hits is moderate for a big time player like him,
only two and a half shots in a bit over half a block, half
a hit. He dropped slightly below a point per game for the first time
since twenty fifteen. Twenty sixteen, even though he had a career high forty
six goals. Does that mean luck he's shooting he shot twenty percent last year.
I would say no. In the evolving hockey stats era two thousand and
seven to present, I ran a query. Three hundred and sixty skaters have
had at least ten thousand minutes on the ice, and Shifle's shooting percentage of
sixteen point eight is behind only Leon dry Sidle in that time. The problem
is the even strength assists. That's what really dropped and has been dropping every
year. You worry about how the exodus of talent around him is going to
impact this. So Mark Schifley, if he is back next year, how
big of an impact can he have on this team. I think it'll be
a big impact because it's a contract year. The one thing about going into
this year is that Streffley wants to get paid, but he thinks that should
get paid, which could be anywhere into the maybe potentially the nine million range.
Being a center being that coveted center position, all those types of things.
He's going to need a big year and he's capable of that. One
thing that you saw with Mark Schiffey last year was he really bought in early
on to what Rick Bonus was doing. And then summer along the line.
This has happened with a few other coaches. Now with Mark Schifley, it's
almost like you just forgot that this was actually helping him become a more complete
player, and he wasn't interested anymore. We got to Carolina last year.
I believe it was in March, might have been late February, but either
way, he gets benched in that game along with his line. It would
have been in March because it just right up the trade deadline because they got
a need a need a writer. And then Mark Schafley and his top line
gets benched along with Calconnor need a writer and Shrefley wouldn't come out after the
game and talk to the media. And Shrefield was an a here and and
he's he's the face of the franchise. He has been since they picked him
the fourth the first pick when the Jets moved back here from Atlanta. So
it and then for about ten games after that, nine or ten games after
that Mark Schifley would just disengaged and wasn't interested in and really playing any part
of the game that Rick Bonus wanted the team to play, and that hindered
his point total. Obviously, he had sixty eight points this year. I
didn't really stop his bull scoring because he's still He's just so skilled, such
an elite shot, so good on the power play and that sort of thing.
Like Mark Schaffey is one of those players it's just going to get you
a lot of goals every year. But forty clips and forty was the first
time he had done that in his career, and that is credit to Rick
Bonus, except Mark forgot that was the case. And so I think Mark
is going to come up knowing that this is if he's back here, that
it's his team now, Like he doesn't have to worry about the Pierre Luke
Deboa factor, him taking over his top center KBA, essentially forcing Mark schify
out to the wing. I don't think that really helped Mark, and Mark
I don't think really took to that very well. So that wasn't ideal in
the way that Mark handled that. But this is the thing with Mark is
like if you can keep him engaged. He's a really good players. Defensive
player has always been suspect, but his offensive abilities are just so good and
when he wants to, he can just take over games. Like That's how
good Mark Schify can be. Like, he can be an elite center that
has game altering ability on the ice when he wants to be. But when
he doesn't want to be, when he's not engaged, that's where the struggle
is and he finds himselves in these kind of slumps, and it has happened
the last couple of years now where he's just checked out for a while.
And I don't expect that this year. And the reason why is because it
is a contract here. Somebody's gonna pay him, be at the Jets or
somebody else going forward, and he's gonna want to maximize his earning potential.
You'll be I believe he'll be thirty one by the time next summer rolls around.
He's going to need that contract and that's when he's going to need it.
And so I think he'll have a big impact on this team this year.
But it's interesting. Yeah, let's go back to the Blake wheel.
Moving on getting bought out by the team. If you looked at this summer
at the end of the season, you would have said two things need to
happen this summer. They need to trade Blake, whether or get find the
way away from Blake Whether's contract, which they did through a buyout, and
then he's trade Mark Scheiffel. The way that Mark Schiffer handled the end of
the season the last two years, he's a questioned his future here and WINNI
big. It doesn't seem like he's been all in. And so if you're
going into the summer, I think that one of the big questions was okay,
or one of the big things it was okay. I think we all
think that they're looking to trade Mark Scheiffer because you got rid of I like
to use this analogy. It was cloudy with Mark Blake here, and now
it's partly cloudy outside with just Mark here, and it's not fully sunny yet.
It's not just sunny and win a bag yet because they haven't moved on
from Mark Schifley. So it's going to be an interesting dynamic when he comes
in because I think the relationship Riff Bonus at the end of the year was
strained. Rick Bonus is back this year, are they able to mend fences
and move on and even if it's just I don't like you, but I
respect you or whatever, it is, right that type of thing. Can
both of these guys figure out their figure out that if they work together it
can be mutually beneficial for them. But I think at the end of the
day, Mark's just going to have to realize that if he wants a big
contract, if he wants to move on, move up from what he what
he's making right now, he's going to have to have a good year.
And so that could benefit the Jets and whether I think it's going to benefit
Jets on the ice, So I think it could benefit the Jets at some
point during the year if they do we decided to trade him. But yeah,
I think ideally, if we're talking about this team and what it needs,
I think if they could and they could have right now, that they
would have already traded Mark Shrefley has just gotten to that point where, like
I said earlier, it's just the market's not there for him. And I
think now they're trying to shift to Okay, if he's going to be around,
how can we use them and how can you know how can we extract
the best of the Mark Schreifey, and I think that's where the Jets stand
right now. Nick Eiler is the next guy we want to talk about,
and unfortunately, this speedy Dane only played forty five games, missed six weeks
with hernia on various upper body injuries. At the end of the season,
he was clear to play by the end of the season, so I don't
think there should be any lingering issues. But he's obviously very good. He's
got two years left at six million. He's someone who we've always wanted to
have more of a role, at least those of us outside of Winnipeg,
some of us there. But he lost time on ice last season and his
shot rains to win down. Unfortunately, he also shot a little bit below
his career norm, So to me, this all hints at the fact that
Eilers can do more. Scott, So, what do you think we could
expect from him this season, especially as you're discussing all the things that might
be moving around and changing in the Winnipeg top six. I think you expect
more from either, and partly because Blake Wheeler's gone and a lot of this
ties into that, and so you're gonna have Nikola Eilers. I think just
a more consistent role, more consistent minutes. I think it's one of the
things that Rick Bone was figured out by the end of the last year.
The problem was he gets injured in game two of that year of last season
and he's out for almost most most of the season. He played forty five
games, but he missed half of this season because of this. He had
the sports hernia. Then he ended up going to Detroit and get some procedure
done to fix it. Just took forever kind of to get that movement along
as one of those injuries that just it just wouldn't heal, and then they
tried to wait and wait. But when he plays me at thirty eight points
last year, twelve goals in those forty two games, he really helped their
power play later on in the season. It just he needs to co exist
with Mark Schifley on the power players. One of the things that those two
have just struggled to because they both want to play the same spot. They
both want to come down off the wall on the left side and do their
thing, and that's just it. Both of them can't do it, just
not how it works. But I think Eilers has the potential, all the
potential in the world too to have a great year. It just he forged
a pretty good partnership with Vladimano Mastokov. When the Messkov came here at the
trade deadline, that was that was beneficial. I think we'll see him likely
with Messkov unless a Messico's not in the top six, which is completely possible.
But I think there's Eilers as all the potential worlds. You just go
stay healthy, and I think Rick Bonus is going to have a better idea
in a second season how to really deploy Nick Heelers and kind of work to
Eilers's strengths, which speed, vision, playmaking, all those types of things.
I think he's gonna have a much better game plan with when it comes
to Eilers. Awesome. Yeah, the next guy we're gonna talk about,
we already mentioned him too. Cole Profetti only played fifty one games upper body
injury February twenty fourth. Was expected to miss about eight weeks, but wasn't
cleared until recently. He had forty eight point pace, really nice step forward
from his thirty two point pace in eighteen games last season. Definitely not someone
who does a whole lot of hitting, blocking, and shooting, but he's
decent in that area and one left when you're left at an injury level,
so really cheap until he becomes an RFA. In twenty twenty four was really
quite good defensively. I think some people wondered whether he could hang in the
middle, and it certainly seemed like he's on his way to proving that.
And obviously, as you mentioned, with the space opened up PLD and Wheeler
gone, it seems like he's primed to slide into that two see or maybe
even one see if Shiflee leaves. What do you think we can expect from
Proffetti this season? Yeah, I think he took some steps last year before
he got injured. I think the biggest question mark is can Cold Proffetti stay
healthy. It's just two years in a row where he's dealt with a significant
injury, and they just need him to get stronger, right, They need
him to get a little bit quicker, but really they just need him get
more durable. And that's always a tough thing for a smaller guy, especially
a smaller guy who might be tasked to play center. And one thing that
Kevin shovel. They have the GM here said is they want to They want
to try Roffetti at center. That's where they drafted him. Briffetti wants to
play there and they want if it's like he's true to his word there.
You could see him at the second line center this year or the potential,
as you said, the top line center. I don't know if you'd go
right to top line, but you could definitely see that. They's so smart.
One thing about Cold Brifetti is like what he lacks in speed, he
makes up. He's one of those old guys in Beer League that he's not
the fastest, but he's just always in the right position and he's and so
that's like a that's one of the strengths of Cold Briffetti. And I think
if he wasn't injured last year, you would have had him very close to
Matty Beniers called their trophy conversation. He was early on in the season because
he was having a great start to the year. They just need him to
stay healthy. And that's the number one thing with Roffetti. They need him
to stay healthy. When he plays, he's a plus to this team.
He benefits his team in a lot of ways possession wise, especially offensively,
and he's good in the defensive zone, which is something that they haven't really
had with from their top centers and in recent years, is that he can
play it truly a two way game. And so that's where they are on
Perfetti and they just I think the biggest thing, the biggest storyline going to
the year, can he stay healthy? Is If he can, he really
helps his team. So two guys coming in that King's trade over Alexia follow
Gabriel Valardi. They were ranked fourth and fifth of the King's and goals above
replacement last year, both over half point per game. Guy, where do
you think these guys slot into the Jets lineup? And who do you expect
from the two to be more productive? Yeah? I mean I think you
would expect Valarti because he's probably going to get that top six time, likely
gonna get some power play time on top of that. Axel follow is an
interesting one because I think if we look at projected rosters of this team,
or at least how I'm projecting them, I think you could see I fellow
with Adam Lowry and you know, need a writer on the third line,
and that really changes the complexion of this team in terms of how good that
quote unquote checking line would be. There'd be a lot of scoring that I
think potential from that line, and I think that it's interesting because we always
look at the second line. You expect them to get more minutes, but
it's possible that third line could get a lot of minutes because they would be
playing a lot against other teams best in terms of opponents and line matchups and
all that kind of stuff, and then you would So I think Valardy just
because of his age is youth. He had a breakout season last year obviously,
and I think that's why the Jets really covered him and that King's grade.
I think he's I think Vlardi is going to give all the opportunity in
the world, potentially a center job next year with the Jets, So I
think he has the higher upside in terms of impact, let's say, at
least points wise, but I'm not counting out. I fell a veteran of
this league and a guy that I think, yeah, like I said,
if he's gonna play with Adam Lowry need a writer, there's a good chance
that line becomes quite dominant, especially just cycling grinding, pucks in the offensive
zone. That's one of those It's one of those lines. If we go
back to the Andrew Copp days here with Andrew Coop and Brandon Tanna have a
few years so they were an elite in terms of how they created offense.
They weren't elite in terms of finishing all the time, but the way that
those three kind of churned out chances and that sort of thing in the offensive
zone was up there with some of the best lines in the league, even
though they were just a third line. So I think this kind of hearkens
back to that. If you kind of look at that, that how I
expect and I think a few people around here or at least expect that third
line to look. But again, I think this goes back to this team
is deeper with both of those guys, especially what I have follow gives,
and especially with Lardy his youth and his breakout year last year. I think
there's a lot of different ways that you can now move around some of the
parts on this team to try and give you even more even scoring, more
even lines in terms of defensive of that sort of thing. So I expect
the Valordy to probably have the edge there on being overall impact. But I
think ifl is going to settle and just fine potentially on that third line,
Yeah, definitely, And let's move over to the D now. It's great
takes on the forward. We got to start with Josh Norrissey. Morrissey,
who didn't win the Norris but he had a fantastic season, played the most
games that he has seventy sorry, played most of the games at seventy eight.
And such a strange trajectory for morris He hovered in that thirty to forty
point range point pace for D and then he shoots up to almost in an
eighty point paced season, just a little confusing, doubling what he used to
do. And I'm someone who always I was initially really thought he could get
there, and then I was becoming really skeptical because he was just locked in
that kind of mediocre range, and then it was like, poof what happened?
So I'd love to hear what do you think happened there? He's also
been really good with his peripheral cover shots, blocks, HiT's all really good.
Five years left at six point two five million. His defense play hasn't
been great, but that might be part partly because of the team effect and
who he's with, but overall, looking under the hood, his shooting percentage
was a little bit high. So his sixteen goals were four more than he
had last year and nearly three times what he usually did before that. So
maybe that's a little high. And the rest of his number is pdo ipp
We're all a little high as well, so it seems like there might be
some regression. What can we expect from Morrissey moving into next year? The
biggest change for Josh Morrissey was Rick Bonus, and Rick Bonus came in last
year at the start of the years, I want our defense to be in
the upper third of the league in terms of scoring. I think the Jets
the year before that were either thirty year, thirty first or thirty second.
And defensive scoring, I think last year, if you go back, I
want to say they were in the top they were in the top ten,
I believe in terms of defensive scoring if memory serves me right here. And
that was all because Rick Bonus came in. He say we got it,
just like defense need to start activating like they really felt covering it. It
felt so strange to hear like a coach come in and say, yeah,
like we just needed defense to move up the ice. This should just be
something that but it wasn't happening and Winnipeg, and that's what I think really
neuter Josh Morrissey's potential. But nobody expected seventy six points either, right,
nobody expected him to blow up for this career year. But Josh was playing
with so much confidence in Rick Bonus's system that it really unlocked something in morris
I think he just he felt like a number one defenseman for the first time
in his career and he wasn't being held back in the same way that he
was since Bufflin laughed and Sharrott laughed, and Myers laughed and all those all
three of those guys, and there was one other that I'm just not remembering
right now, but they all left in the same summer, and Josh Morrissey
was left essentially to saddle the load and basically play with whoever Paul Maras would
give him, which was often a defenseman that would drag him down. This
year was the first year that that wasn't as much of the case. He
played really well with Dylan Demelo. Some injuries and stuff, like that meant
he had to play with some other guys. But Morrisey really just I think
he saw something different in the way that Rick Bonis wanted them to play,
and he felt free. I think that the biggest thing was Josh Morsey felt
free on the ice to move up the ice. It wasn't like because somebody
for the most part last year was going to back him up right like a
Ford was going to move back, and so Morsey could just go up and
actually use his offensive instincts and then put the puck in the back of the
net or crazy. It's sixty assists last year. These are numbers that we
had never seen o Josh Morsey. But it looked so natural watching him do
it that this wasn't like that. I don't want to I agree with you
because somebody looks at the numbers too and you think, okay, I shouldn't
send it Desidle, that there could be some regression. I agree that's probably
the case. But I think the days are gone of him being a forty
point player. I think now you're looking at a guy who can push that
that point per game pace now, at least in this system and under Rick
Bonus. So I think he's probably going to be having the same I don't
think when it bigs defense. I think, honestly, I think when the
big defense is set in terms of who they're playing, I don't think they're
moving anybody. I think that's all staying the way it is. So if
that's the case, can we expect a lot less? I don't think so.
I think Josh Morrissey playing the way that he played and having a year
of that under his belt, I think he can be just as good and
potentially a little bit better. One thing, we got to remember, Josh
Morsey fell off a little bit in the last half, not the last half
of the year, the last quarter of the season. It just wasn't He
wasn't putting up the same kind of numbers. So I think if he can
address that, potentially you could have a better year offensively at least. So
yeah, we'll see. I'm really curious on the Morrissey because, yeah,
you look at it and you're like, it's such a big jump as they're
going to be just that Okay, it was like it was an abnormal year
for him. He had a great season and put him in the Norris conversation.
The norriscy thing all that kind of stuff. But I truly believe,
just having covered Josh for the last almost ten years now, that I think
he's just taken a step into that more let's say, elite stratosphere among an
NHL defenseman, and I think he can stay. There will there be a
blow, but progression, who knows, but I think he is. I
think he's here to stay in terms of this new kind of improved Josh Morrisey,
at least under Rick Bonus at one end of the goals above replacement on
the Winnipeg Jets was Josh Morrissey number one. At the other end, dead
last but not for the fantasy folks. Among us was Neil Pianc. He
was the thirty third ranked fantasy defenseman because he does the stats that we enjoy,
but we may be enjoyed in more than the Winnipeg Watchers anyway, he
was particularly had a rough time at even strength defense. It looks like I
enjoyed the two shots, two hits in a block and half a point per
game. He skated with Brent Dylan the majority of the time, but he
also skated quite a bit with Josh More. Is he what happened last year
and what are your expectations for Pion's upcoming season. Pian played with an injury
for most of the last season. That's what happened, and it really hurt
at times. Right there was times where you could almost seem like he couldn't
even push off of his I believe it was the right foot. He'd struggled
to push it so that that really hindered him. I don't know how it
gets fixed it. We haven't heard of any sort of surgery or scedure.
It's possible we didn't. We weren't twirled much about it, but Pi did
admit that he had been dealing with something, and so I don't know if
there's been any sort of procedure done. Nobody's really said anything to correct that,
or if he just needed time. But he obviously he was able to
play through it. At times, it was a detriment to the team because
he did struggle. He wasn't the same defenseman. He hasn't really been the
same defenseman for the last couple of years. You have to go back to
the twenty twenty twenty twenty one season to find like some of his best kind
of actual defensive play. I mean your Jets fans will remember him in the
playoffs against dry Citle and McDavid in that four game sweet for the Jets,
that was peak Neil Pong. He does put up the points, as he
said, he gets powerplay time and that's part of it. I think the
injury it was just a big I think that again, the biggest question about
Neil Pong going to this year is he gonna be fully healthy. If he
is okay, then I think he can return to the Neil Pong that the
Jets saw in the first couple of three years of his tenure here and maybe
not the last couple where it has been at least this past year has been
hindered by injury, and I think it did hurt him, and we know
it hurt him because the numbers always suggests that even if even if his stats
were still there, I think he would. He have thirty three point ten
goals and thirty three points this past season. Those numbers aren't too shabby.
But I think fully healthy Neil Pong will We're really regained some of the form
that we saw a few years pro from them. Yep. And moving on
to the goalies, the Jets gave up the eighth ranked expected goals for six
recording Evolving Hockey, but only the fifth actual goals mean they were really outperforming
that number, and of course Connor Hallibuck is the main reason there. And
as this as of this recording, he's still a Jet and he has.
There have been some discussions, some rumors about him potentially moving, but that
doesn't happen yet. And he has become similar to Vassileski in fantasy just in
terms of how reliable. He is, about as reliable as you can come
at a position that's notoriously unreliable. He has one year left at that six
point one six million, where he may not finish out in Winnipeg. Will
have to see. They brought in Bursois after two years in Vegas, got
him a Stanley Cup. He was really good there. I don't really think
that he's the answer in terms of a starter if Hellibuck moves on. But
tell us what you think we can expect from this very murky goalie situation in
Winnipeg this upcoming season. Yeah, I expect if Connor Hillbuck plays this season
for the Jets, you expect elite Golton like you have every other year.
One thing about Connor Hullibuck is that even his down years that they've been him
exceptional and last year they needed him more, not because I think the nineteen
twenty year was probably peak Connor Hellibuck, Like when he won the BESNA.
They needed him the most that season because of what they lost on defense.
And I think that's the reason why he won the Besinas, just because he
got shelled so many nights and was so good. You saw it last year
and he'd stopped fifty one I think, and against the Rangers at one point
he was just he was a Besna finalist, and I think without Linus all
Marks here, I wouldn't be shocked this Rokan was up there too. There's
other guys, but I think he got the detention of some of the national
media last year because some of the performances that he put in, or one
of his best performances came on the East Coast, and so that always helps
the guys stock. Let's say, but everybody knows who Connor Hellbuck is at
this point arguably the best goaltender in the NHL. Over that ty Osilevski's right
there obviously as well. The thing you worry about with Connor Hellibuck, And
I think the thing that you worry about with is the same thing that you
would hear from just how much they played as offered late season fatigue to these
guys, and that hasn't really helped at least earlier on. For Vasileski,
that didn't help him in the playoffs and for Helli Buck this team. A
lot of this team's success has always written on Connor Hellibuck. It goes they
live or die by the way that hell Buck performs in the net. With
Bursua, at least they get a capable backup, right like with David Riddick
last year, It just wasn't they needed more, right, they needed a
backup that could go win games and not pressure you into playing hell Buck like
they did thirteen straight games down the stretch to secure a playoff spot. Obviously,
it's great that hell Buck can play all those games and win the majority
of them that help the Jets kind of clinch their playoff birth and all that
stuff, But how much has that hurt on the back side of that when
you get into playoffs and now you need your goalie to be at this top
thing, But you just there's just been no load management at all. You
just can't load. You can't manage it because you need him to help you
just make the postseason. So that's where the question becomes. And if they
have him, can they manage him enough during the regular season that he can
still make sure that they get into the playoffs, because that's what he does.
And then from there, can he can you management enough that his playoff
potential his ceiling is higher because he's just not going to be saddled with already
have sixty six starts last year. It's just too much for him. That's
too much for most coalies. And you've seen the shift in the NHL to
these tandem guys, right, And if they don't have Hella Buck, I
don't know what happens because I think the problem is unless you trade Hella Buck
and Shiflee and you get somebody like maybe Jeremy Swayman back or something like,
they just don't they don't have their goalies in the system, aren't ready to
come up. Braswas probably not the starter, as you guys pointed out,
And so I think if the Jets go from being a bubble team to just
a non playoff team without Connor Hellibuck. That's just the way, that's the
reality here, that's how they've operated for several seasons now, and so they
honestly, I think they know they need him. And it's a big risk,
right because it's potential that he doesn't resign after next season or at any
point during this season or anything like that, So you could lose him.
You might be forced to trade him with the trade deadline when this team is
in a good position to make the playoffs. And what does that mean in
the broader scheme of all these players are like, they don't care if players
don't care if you, if you if you need to trade him for whatever,
for the future or whatever. The players that are on this team now
want to win now, especially if you put them if they put themselves into
that position from the trade deadline. So I expect Connor Hellbock to have an
incredible season because he's going into a contract year and we know how much this
guy wants to make and what he thinks he's worth. And three of the
last six years has been events in the Finalist he's won one of them.
We all know his credentials. It's just if they're going to keep them.
Can they make sure that they manage him correctly that he can be a factor
for them in the playoffs. And if they're not going to keep them,
this team in big trouble between the pipes, I believe because Karnor Hellbuck has
just got good. We all know it. He's just that good. He's
one of those still franchise goaltenders in a league that's there's been, there's becoming
fewer and fewer of those true number ones. Knor Hellbuck is still that guy,
and he still will be for the next few years. He's only thirty
right now. He's not going to drop off in the next couple of years,
and that might be four or five years out potentially. Still, yeah,
he's gonna be really good for whoever he plays for this year. But
I think as it stands right now, it looks like he's going to start
the season with the Jets, and that's very good for the Jets. It's
just going to create a bit of a problem coming closer to late February early
March to see what the Jets actually do if they can't get a signature from
him from on an extension. Still, for sure, thank you, You've
given us a lot of great information about this team. Scott, whyn't you
let people know where they can keep up with your work. Yeah, but
when it picks Sun dot com that's where we're at and a little slow right
now in the summer, that hasn't been a lot going on, but yeah,
come September it's full throttle Jets coverage and yeah, that's what we do.
That's the biggest part of our paper sports coverage. And yeah, we
go pretty hard on Jets coverage and every season, all at every time.
Yeah, I want to pick Sun dot Com is where you can find all
of my writings. Awesome, thanks so much for coming on today, Scott.
Yeah, I appreciate it. Guys, thanks for having me. Wilson
and well that's good fired passed up. Oh my goodness, go with a
cat quick grab. Now it's your weekly goalie talk with Cats Silverman Cats Instincts.
Time again for Cats Instincts, Winnipeg Jets Editions, Jet Cat Silverman from
Ing Gold mag This system is a little dicey. I think we could say
I think they don't have a ton of great options. We were talking before
we start recording about Micaal Burdan, who is someone it seems like they've been
hoping would be stepping into a more prominent role. But he's now in Russia.
He's been in Russia for a year and sounds like he's staying there.
So I don't think he's someone that we need to really worry about. And
the only other guy that seems maybe worth discussing is Thomas Millech, who was
an overager, double overager, if I'm reading this right, and he was
drafted in the this year in the fifth round by Winnipeg this past year twenty
twenty three. He's generously listed at six feet one hundred and nine hundred and
seventy nine pounds according to Elite Prospects, and he was on that Seattle Thunderbird's
team that was really fantastic this past year when the WHL came up a little
bit short in the Memorial Cup. And he was also on that World that
World Junior team with for Canada. I think a lot of goalies could have
won with Canada, but he did pretty well when called upon. And not
to diminish his accomplishments, but Millich is definitely not the most exciting prospect if
you look at his hockey prospecting. It's scary. He has really low equivalences
on all of his years. Probably one of the best comps I've found was
Scott Clementson, who was a backup. There's really only one reasonable NHL or
on all of his comps, and that was Roman Chickmonic, and he was
someone who didn't really have equivalent season his first couple of years. So that's
basically the only way to find someone similar to Milich. So Kat, tell
us what you think about Thomas Millich and what the state of the Winnipeg prospect
goalie system. I'm always happy to be completely wrong when I find a goaltender
that I think is being overlooked and then they end up not being quite as
good as i'd hope they would be. I'm willing to stand behind my guys.
And during his his first draft eligible year, I had actually written a
piece where I talked about just how hard it was for people to evaluate goaltenders
after the pandemic and mentioned Thomas Millich as one of the guys who I thought
should have gotten drafted higher than the direct comparable that I had in my article
was Ben Goodrow. I wanted to see him drafted ahead of Ben Goodrow,
and instead Ben Goodrow got drafted, and it took Thomas Millig another two years
to get drafted. But he, like you said, he did well at
the World Juniors. He had done even better at the U eighteen World Juniors
during his first draft eligible year. He really shone there. He was one
of the better guys for the w in the WHL that year. He just
he's so small, and it becomes so nerve racking when you see a guy
who he's listed at six feet tall and one hundred I think like one hundred
and seventy three pounds undred seventy nine pounds, which if you take off his
gear, he's probably closer to five ten one sixty, which can be difficult
for a team to feel confident about. But he's just got such a solid
technical foundation. I don't think he's quite as good as Dust and Wolf,
because I think nobody is quite as good as Dust and Wolf when it comes
to those undersized goaltenders right now. But I put him a little closer to
someone like Trent Miner, who is also a pretty decent prospect who is undersized.
Both of them, both Minor and Wolf managed to squeak in took Thomas
milliche a little longer to get drafted. I think he's an NHL or I'm
happy to be wrong one day, just to have someone believing in him for
the time being, even if his comparables do not. That being said,
Winnipeg's prospect pool is upsettingly bleak outside of him, the fact that he's a
really promising looking young goalie but a gamble at his size, and that the
facts that no other teams wanted him for whatever reason. If that's the only
goaltender you have as a promising option in your system, yikes. I think
that Winnipeg it does this to themselves. Sometimes they wait until they have no
one, and then they get someone really good, and then they wait again
until they have no one. They had Michael Berdan, who I thought was
hilarious and fun to watch. He was one of my favorite prospects to watch,
but he went back to the KHL, and even though they have his
rights for another couple of years, if he went back overseas, I don't
feel like I'd see him coming back anytime soon. So yeah, I don't
know what Winnipeg's doing there. There's so many good young goaltenders bloating around right
now. They could very easily bring someone else in, but I think they
are. They're like someone buying a new sports car and gunning it to see
just how fast it can go before they blow the engine. I think that's
what they're doing with Hunter Hellibuck and sup bulge strategy. But we'll see how
far that takes them. And I don't think they even I don't think they
even have that anymore, do they with Hella Buck? Yeah, we'll see.
I mean I think he I think he's probably gone, so I mean,
you gotta do something there. He might be gone mid year, he
might be gone this year. We'll see. Yeah, that the sports car
analogy. They are driving that Ferrari at top speed right towards the edge of
the cliff. I don't know what they're doing. They got to figure something
else out. I don't think Lauren Brosa is a long term answer there either,
because those two are literally the same age. So I don't know what
they're doing. I don't know if your best prospect is a fifth round double
age or undersized goalie. What are you doing? What are you doing?
Anyways? Thank you Kay for giving us your instincts on the Winnipeg Jets goalie
prospect system. We'll be back right after this the NSD dig Winnipeg Jets dynasty
talk, and the Winnipeg Jets. What do we got going on over here?
We've got a system that Victor ranks eleventh overall. They have a number
of good prospects we're going to talk about today. Colby Barlow eighteenth overall was
their big pick in this draft. They didn't pick again until the third draft
or the third round of the draft. It took zach Lye nearing Victor.
We're gonna start with your no brainer today and who isn't That would be Chazz
Lucius and Lucius twenty twenty one first round pick by Winnipeg eighteenth overall, six
one eighty five pound winger or center winger. He started in the HL this
past season five points and twelve games with Manitoba, then he was loaned back
to Portland fifteen games fifteen points in six games with Portland. He was assigned
on January ninth and suffered an injury that where he had to go on shoulder
surgery on February six and missed the rest of the season. So he was
trying to play through it, but it sounds like it was pretty severe and
so he knew the surgery. Should be ready for the upcoming season though for
Manitoba, and he should be ready for training camp after the surgical recovery.
He's got three years left on his entry level deal and he There's a lot
more to know about Chaz Lucius Jesse, and we're going to hear about that
right now from RFHL scout darn Mar scout is Brandon on this case. And
here's what Brandon has to say about Chazz Lucius. In terms of skating,
he relies heavily on gliding with the momentum that he generates through his initial acceleration,
he could highly benefit from becoming more shifty. And that said, his
solid base on his skates makes him very sturdy when enduring the rigorous of physicality.
Lucius did very little puck carrying through the observation of the games playing in
the HL. When he got ahold of the puck, he was likely to
make a quick short pass or, in rarer cases, attempt a shot on
goal. Viewings in the WHL highlighted a different side to his game. He
was more comfortable carrying the puck through all three zones, searching for wider lanes
to sail through. Pass range increased in the WHL viewings, and he was
more willing to take chances to make bigger and wider plays with his passing.
So stickhandling, like his skating while carrying the puck, is a bit on
the overactive side, could use some poise and smoothness of movement. In terms
of shooting, he puts a fair amount of heft and gusto into loading his
shots, even the ones that are released quickly or are one touch. Lucius
doesn't need to put much movement into telegraphing his shot to apply the force he
does. This has and could continue to catch goaltenders off guards IQ At times,
Lucius seems very overly focused on reading the play instead of imposing his will
on it, but he's adept at finding open teammates to move the puck through
to various game situations. Whereas some players see the game steps ahead as they
develop, it looks like Lucius more reads the play on both sides of the
puck until he is comfortable injecting himself into it, and if he has to
puck on his stick for a prolonged period of time. He's relatively calm and
controlled, but nowhere near highly confident in daring in his ability to evade for
checking. If for checking is the F one or F two. He applies
swooping pressure and pursuit, but does not commit until the opponent has fumbled the
play, and at times he will utilize subtle head or shoulder fakes to freeze
up the opponent gain ground to get stick into stick checking range defense. His
defensive games rather passive and peripheral, as he tends to cover the D zone
positionally like the center. His primary tools to stick check executed quick hands and
without overreaching, so overall the best asset subtle playmaking creativity, though no single
trait is flashy, bold, or obvious to call a hallmark. Lucius's biggest
concern is the activeness, the assertiveness, and the directed mobility. Gets around
the ice fine at the lower levels, but could find himself caught in the
wake of the game at the NHL. What's the top outcome expected for Lucius?
Though he played at center, is type of game really Brandon thinks is
more suited for the periphery as a middle six, supportive playmaking winger, maybe
a sixty point guy, maybe a career high of seventy points with middling Bash
and his fiftieth percent hire tier or roll the Hller and it would need to
find and heavily develop keystone skill or two stylistic comparis ball Ryan Johansson crossed with
the vertical posture of Jack Eichel and shades of a smaller, less physical Dustin
Penner close to the net the NHL ranking, Mason Black has a few PHLI
equivalents out there. Patrick Sharpe is a one hundred NHLI similarity score. That's
an encouraging word the future for old Chas Lucius, and he goes for an
all Canada prospect comparison in terms of the rank. King Pold went out to
all of you to vote on Chaz Lucius versus Connors Zeri of the Calgary Flames,
the twenty twenty first round pick of the Flames. Who would you rather
have Chaz Lucius buy Aos over Connors Zeri. That's an interesting one, but
we've heard some pretty good things about Chas Lucius. I was a big guy
on Connors Zeri at the outset. I am hopeful that Zeri is going to
get a little bit more run now with Sutter out of town, and maybe
a little bit more opportunity for the young prospects, but he has not come
out to his highest outcome just yet. I'm sure we'll hear about him on
a future episode. Do you think that Chaz Lucius ought to be the choice
over Connor ZERI Victor. Yeah, I do. I think they're both good
players and good prospects and some of the best in each pool. So that's
a nice way to compare it as well. And I definitely agree with the
sentiment from Brandon that Chez Lucius is more of a winger. That's why I
said that at the beginning, and then he's listed as a center on his
Elite Prospects paid but he definitely seems more like a winger, peripheral type player.
He actually reminds me a little bit of Kyle Connor, who was also
an NDP guy and obviously a jet. But yeah, I think that this
year for Lucius was tough with the injury and not playing too many games,
and so some of his equivalencies look low, but he think he's he actually
has a lot more to show forward, and so it was a difficult transition
year after such a strong year in college and going step to step from us
NITP to University of Minnesota to Manitoba Moose. Those are like huge steps each
step of the way, so he's been moving all around. I think it'll
be really good for him to have this recovery and training time and then just
being the HL next season. And I would not be surprised if he does
really well and pops off as I think he can. But these two are
closed, are both good, They're both similar in terms of times. Zari's
a little bit closer, So if that is important to you, then I
would certainly not begrudge you for picking Zari. I think he could have a
role on the Flames as soon as the season. We'll have to see about
that. And Lucius, yeah, I know he trended down just because of
this off year. I think I wouldn't be surprised if his D plus three
showed an increase from his five percent chance of being a star. He was
at twenty seven, then twelve and then five. But again part of that
is the injuries and different teams he played for this year, so I wouldn't
be surprised if he pops back up. But right now, he's got some
not so good comps. Kyle Tourists is one that Nate pulled here for him,
and yeah, that seems not unreasonable. I think I would. I
think Lucia's has more upside than that, But that wouldn't be that an average
producer like Carl Tourist wouldn't be without out of the realm of possible. And
Jay Fresh Top Down Hockey has him at eight percent chance of being a star
fifty two percent chance of an NHL are similar actually in line to hockey prospecting,
so they seem to agree that he's got a lower chance, but we'll
ste to see what happens next year. I still think there's more there with
Lucia's. Jesse. Yeah, next guy then needed no prospect is a guy
who's been getting some love lately. Who is it? That would be Rutger
McGroarty twenty two first round pick, fourteenth overall by the Jets, six one,
two hundred five pound left wing. He transitioned from the us NTDP to
the University of Minnesota quite well, I would say. And also, if
you're seeing a pattern here of Jets picking us NTDP wingers, yeah, you've
noticed a real thing. It seems to be happening, and so his eighteen
goals twenty one assists for thirty nine points and thirty nine games for Michigan was
huge. That was obviously point per game pace. He also had a point
per game pace for the US at the U twenty World Junior Championship seven and
seven. He will be coming back to Michigan for sophomore season next year.
Should have even more opportunity there with some of the other players moving on from
that loaded squad. And he hasn't signed yet obviously he's still in college,
but he could sign after this season, maybe even play some professional games in
the HL or NHL after his college season. Will have to see how that
goes. Looking at Mitch Brown's tracking data, the one glaring hole is his
defense. Rucker McGorty not the best defensive player, but he's in that average
range. He's not below, He's just average, which is okay. If
you could have him be NHL average, that would be enough, but this
is college average, so a couple steps behind, but not too bad.
His offense, though, in terms of his expected goals and shots, is
extremely high. A little bit lower for his expected A ones, but still
very good as well as his slot passes. Most of his transition data rucker.
Mcgrorty is not the guy you want transitioning the puck, so the fact
that he's pretty good in this area is just fine. He's got some good
past, controlled past exits and entries, which is that's what you want him
doing, not actually skating the puck. It's not the fastest guy, but
that's okay. Other people can move their feet and he can find them,
which is what you want. He also has some other really great things like
averages created off puck assist for sixty those kinds of things. So under the
hood looks really good for McGroarty Jesse. What does our FHL scout have to
say about him? Our FHL scout Tony has a few things to say.
Skating good, skating enough speed and short bursts, can do breakaways, but
not a burner necessarily passinger in handling also rated out as good. Able to
find a way to get passes off in tight spaces. For shooting a really
good shot, Tony says didn't do too many slap shots, but the other
ones were very good. IQ seems to have a great IQ knows where to
be able to get there to get a shot or pass away. Offensive anticipation
is top notch. Didn't see a whole lot of defense, but based on
the short end of time, would probably say defense is not a cup of
suit. Very diplomatic there, Tony panic meters seems to be zero four checking,
seems to do what he needs to, but needs a little more aggressiveness
to be successful at the NHL level. Defense not necessarily a lot there seems
to be more of an offensively geared player playing the offensive zone. High IQ,
really good shots is the highest asset for this guy, but the concern
is the lack of defense and aggressiveness. Top tier What would be the top
possibility outcome for mister McGroarty offense very good, a Tier one type player that's
a big point per game type score with power play potential, but the fiftieth
percentile outcome if you need the NHL, maybe a Tier three type of guy
that's more of a marginal guy who's going to be maybe more of a fifty
point player with power play time limited, third line minutes, stylistic comparisible comparable.
He's going to say a less aggressive Matt kachuck boy, what would a
less aggressive Matt kachuck Be. He says, Tim similar to Thomas home Strom,
is maybe the comparable Rutger mcgroarty's similarity school scores with the NHL rank King
Mason Black have Luke Kunnant coming out as his top comparable, so that is
something. And his projection has dipped a little bit over the past year since
his draft year, and he's going to compare him in terms of the poll
to Ridley Greek, one of those Ottawa Senators prospects from a couple of years
ago who's also moved his way up to the HL, and actually he's made
it all the way to the NHL at this point as Greek, who would
you rather have on your fantasy team, Rutger McGroarty or Ridley Greek. Rutger
McGroarty wins fairly handedly, fifty eight to forty two. I get that.
I think Rickord McGroarty from everything we've heard, has a lot of possibility,
especially for his fantasy types, to get a scoring type of role. Ridley
Greek's probably suffering from that deal where right when you make it up to the
NHL and your production is poor right away, it's going to bring you down
in people's estimations because of probably prospect fatigue. But I'm okay with McGroarty winning
this competition. How about you, Victor, Yeah, definitely I like McGroarty
a lot more than Greek, certainly. Like you said, Greek is playing
in the NHL, and he got some opportunity this season, potentially a little
bit from injury, but he did all right, nearly a forty point pace.
Nothing super exciting for Greek, but he was there and holding his own
and so he's a decent prospect in his own right and has some pretty decent
bash to go along with the faceoff wins and points and whatever else he's bringing.
But for me, McGroarty also has a little bit of that snarl and
he can play with some physicality, which is nice, and I think has
a much higher scoring upside than Greek. What he did and the ncuble A
was pretty impressive this season, and I don't think it was just that he
was on a good team. He that was a big step for him to
take from the NTDP to the NC double A and he did it well.
He kept his star potential up from thirty two percent down to twenty, but
he kept it from not falling as far, which often does in their D
plus one season, so that was nice. He's a sixty percent chance of
being an NHLer, so overall his trajectory looks a lot better than Greeks right
now, but it's not too far off, and that kind of goes to
show with the similarity here in the voting. But I would definitely take McGroarty
and looking at his full comps, he's got some interesting guys. Ryan Smith
is one of them oiler star, but I think he's more likely to be
more in the middle, and Ivan Barberschev is one of the mid tier kind
of outcomes for him, which obviously he's doing some pretty good things now next
to Eichel, but he's more of an average producer of his career. Someone
like Jeoffrey Lupel might also be similar, and he has some equivalences that looked
not terribly unlike Nick Eiler's fellow teammate there on the Jets, so that's interesting.
The Jay Fresh card looks pretty similar fourteen percent chance of being a star
and sixty six percent chance of being an nhlor, so I like him.
When these models generally agree that you still got some pretty good chance of being
a start as McGorty, so I definitely like him, and I'm eager to
see what his D plus two looks at Michigan when he transitions to pro I
think his game is going to translate very well to the professional level, and
that's something that you can't always say about prospects. So I am very excited
about McGroarty. I think the Jets have a good one and as they enter
this new phase of I don't know what they're doing, potentially retooling. I
don't know that they're going to fully rebuild, but reinforcements are not too far
away if they want to try to keep this window open. So we'll have
to see what happens. But yeah, I like Rucker, McGorty, Jesse
very good. Who is your keep your eye on prospect for the Winnipeg Jets
picture? That would be Colby Barlow twenty twenty three first round pick by Winnipeg
eighteenth overall, also famously drafted by our buddy Peter Harling into his Dynasty league,
and snagged a picture of Colby while waiting at the Nashville Airport due to
a delay. Fantastic stuff. If you haven't seen that, you got to
check it out. It's in our show notes and Peter tweeted it out.
Good stuff. He was a good sport and big day for him, but
it was very gracious when Peter chatted with him. Back to his numbers forty
six goals thirty three assists in fifty nine games for the Owen Sound Attack of
the OHL as a February birthdate, he'll need at least two more years in
the OHL, then probably one to two in the HL, So he's going
to be a ways out. Not signed yet, but we'll see when Winnipeg
chooses to do that. Looking at his tracking data from Mitch Brown's data set,
overall, he comes in at a seventy two percent, but eighty six
for offense forty one for defense, so quite a bit below average in terms
of actual corsi per sixty and his passing numbers were his. Basically, his
playmaking is much worse than his goal scoring. That might be partially due to
the team he played on, but still it's interesting to note that some of
his transition game also not so good. But overall, the things you really
want to know is like the expected goals, which was really high, definitely
in the top like fifteen percent of Ohler or in this whole data set for
the HL, which was really good, and he shoots a ton, and
those are two things we really like. So let's find out a little bit
more about what makes kolbe Barlow interesting prospect from our FHL scout. Our FHL
scout, Wade has a few things to say here. The skating is below
average. He has decent footspeed, but lacks great edge control, has work
to do on his stride. Once he gets a going, it can be
hard to stop him. But his skating isn't very explosive. Off the bat,
passing and handling average. Usually makes a good first pass, usually attempts
to write pass, but his larger frame is likely the cause of this is
he keeps his hands in tight around the body and that's a glaring weakness,
and so his physical attributes to what he's leaning on. Shooting is elite.
Shot is easily the best attribute was great help to him and the only sound
this season. Release was among the best in this year's draft class, probably
better than a good chunk of current NHL players. IQ above average doesn't tend
to get overwhelmed both on and off the puck, very easily, relatively common
under pressure. While this is aided by his large stature, which he uses
to defend the puck from attackers, He uses his IQ to put himself in
good positioning. Positioning overall is decent, but the lack of explosiveness and his
skating limits how effective his positioning is. For checking above average a force to
be reckoned with on the foe check, not a surprise given his six four
stature, his defense is a bit below average. His end zone defending is
somewhat frustrating to watch, as he puts himself in almost all the right opportunities
to succeed, but then he fails to execute a lot of at the time,
tries to disrupt more plays with his body than with his stick, which
is fun when it works, but burns him when it doesn't. So he
needs more active stick in the defensive zone, and when he does use it,
it's usually met with success, which makes it frustrating, and he doesn't
do it more. Rush defending isn't that great either. Best asset, so
it's the shot deceptive in its heart, which makes it very hard to defend
against. Not at the Badard Mitch Cooff level, but it's going to carry
him away is probably help him get a career NHL solely just based on that
biggest concern found him ranked all over the first round of the draft, which
is largely due to the discrepancies and what different scouts liked best. One of
the most physically developed players in this class, which raises concerns about how much
runway he has left physical projectability. He's already a fully grown man. Just
look at his beard. I just look at his Beard's his weight. I
like that. A stylistic compare or his top tier potential? Where is it
going to go? He could be a Tier one player, a point per
game type guy, as he could be never more than a bottom six guy.
Both are possible fiftieth percentile outcome for him. Thankfully, for the Jets,
his floor is fairly high. Even if he fails to live up to
his upper potential, they're probably gonna get a middle to bottom of the lineup
winger. Stylistic comparable, while the use of his frame and good straight line
speed echoes Montreal's Josh Anderson is shot sets him a lot apart there that with
the hockey IQ, he thinks maybe more comparisons to Mark Stone, although the
defensive game is never going to be on par with Stones. Let's look at
the NHL ranking, Mason Black's data and poll. He's got Max Domi,
Matt Dashane, Josh Bailey coming out as the best comparable for the p NHL
equivalency model kind of coming up to a first line type potential. And we're
going to compare it to Andrew Christal, the man who dropped out of the
first round but was well regarded in this year's draft and putting it out on
Twitter to the people to vote. The people voted the same way the NHL
drafters did and took Kody Barlow decisively over Andrew Kristall. I have a hard
time disagreeing with that, although it sounds like Barlow does have some significant limitations
in this game. From Wade's description, how do you see these two going?
I would disagree with all those people because I would definitely take Christall over
Barlow. And that's no slight to Barlow. I think he is. He
does have, as you mentioned, a great shot, but he is you
need dimensional and maybe he'll be able to round out some of those other things.
I think he probably can, but he's not there right now. And
Christall's offense is just so elite. His vision and his playmaking, everything he
can do. He's just a little bit He's more well rounded offensively. Defensively,
they're both similarly disengaged and not very good, which you're getting with Christall,
and I think that his offense can really translate, especially using really good
players around him. I had him ranked twelfth in my fantasy ranks and Barlow
nineteenth, So yeah, pretty clearly ahead. And I definitely understand just based
on where he was taken there's more draft pedigree there for Barlow, a lot
lower for Crystal, But I definitely I'm not going to let that sway me
too much in terms of who you're taken, because pretty soon, within the
next year or two, people are going to forget about that and see how
each one of these progress. They're actually not too terribly at apart turns it.
In terms of hockey prospecting, Barlow's at forty percent chance of being a
star, Crystal sixty, and both similar. In terms of NHLO probability,
Barlow has some really good comps, though just in general, a lot of
a lot of his comps are guys obviously done pretty well at that high star
potential. One of the ones that they picked out here Trevors Zegers, just
in terms of his offensive upside, and that seems pretty reasonable. The top
down Hockey model has Barlow more at nineteen percent chance of being a star and
sixty five percent chance of being an NHLOR, so much lower star potential but
similar NHLO probability. So Kobe Barlow definitely someone you want. This is a
difficult choice, but I would go Crystal here, Jesse to your Washington capitals.
And also there's more that we could say. There's extra information in the
scouting one note that we have that you can check out if you're a patron.
There's also some top ten lists, but we don't have time to cover
that now. But if you're interested in doing some scouting with us, you
get some really great access videos from all these prospects that are really hard to
find anywhere else, and great stats. DM me if you're interested to shoot
me DM on Twitter, discord email us, and it's a pretty small price
to pay, just given a couple of reports a month. If you're interested
in joining the team, it's a good time. Let's come right back and
close out the show. Fantasy hockey lie back once again to talk fantasy hockey.
This is not a test. This is the emergency Fantasy Hockey Response System.
I'm Jesse Severe fan tracks and joining me as always, Victor Nunio of
Daver Prospects. Victor, how you doing. I'm doing great, Jesse.
I'm ready to rescue people's fantasy teams. Is that a thing? There you
go, there you go, We got it. It's an emergency response unit
because your fantasy teams are flailing that everybody's are at this time of year.
Who knows, And we're here to help, just here to help. We're
helpful people. I don't know, Victor. We're talking about your favorite California
team today, right, No, maybe my third or fourth favorite? Your
fourth favorite the Barricout account. As far as I'm concerned, that's probably your
second. So yeah, we're talking about the La Kings today. It's gonna
be good times. The La Kings are boy, they're a tough one to
wrap your We keep saying this later, but they're a tough one to get
your your arms around. But one thing, Victor, it's easy to get
your arms around, and that is all the good things that you can do
associating yourself with this show. A discord is the first thing as social media
collapses around us, you need a place to get your thoughts off, to
interact with people in maybe the nice environment where people like to talk about fantasy
hockey, and our discord is just that, hundreds of people in there and
daily discussions and it's free. All you have to do is join up with
us by email in one of us. Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com
gets you both of us, and on the dead Bird Twitter you can email
Victory. You can hit up Victor in New you Know twelve, you can
hit me up fan Hockey Life. But in addition to all that, Victor,
we got Patreon. What do you got going at the Patreon right now?
Yeah, lots of great stuff. We did our twenty twenty three ranks.
You can still see those. It's a separate tab in case you want
to just focus on the twenty twenty three's, but we're integrating those into the
forward, d and goalie ranks now too, so you can see where do
these guys that I have drafted or just got drafted, How do they fit
in with the overall rests of ranks? Where does someone like an Oliver more
fit in with the rest of the forwards in terms of like their upside all
forwards under a hundred games, it's tough. A lot of our drafts have
these blended drafts where it's mixed in, so you can go through the ranks
and cook out who the best top upside guys are. There's that. There's
of course Patron Cast. There's Patron Priority Channel. We can do a roster
doctorc go over what you need to do with your team. If you're going
through a rookie draft, you can DM me like who's available and help you
out with your drafts. There so all kinds of great stuff, And of
course we're also doing the average draft position projects, so if you want to
share with us your draft, we can integrate that and we pump that back
to the patrons and quote some of these positions on the show and be happy
to share that with you. It's interesting some of the guys we've recently talked
about. Your Andrew Kristal is going right around pick eighteen. You might want
to know that in terms of how long can you wait on someone like that,
It turns out not that long, and so it's really helpful to have
all that information, if you would be so kind to share that with us,
all you gotta do is go to you when your draft is done,
go into fantracks, click download the CSV and share it with us. If
you could give information like how many teams and what the settings are, that
would be great too. But really appreciate that Brandon and Jason have been compiling
that data. It's really good stuff. But all of that, if you
want to support the show, you can do that at Patreon dot com,
slash Fantasy Hockey Life. And one of the other great things is the Tier
dynasty. So the Tier Dynasty that has been really good success this year and
we're moving forward with adding a couple new divisions and it's going to be a
true tier. This first year it was all horizontal, but now we're getting
vertical tiers went to four by the end of the year. It's going to
be really great stuff. So if you want to take your dynasty competition in
to the next level, gotta check it out. It's going to be a
great thing. So you can see more information about that if you go to
www. Dot Fantasy Hockeylife dot com, Forward slash Tidy t I d y
check it out. Absolutely, you should do that. If you want Andrew
Krystal, maybe you can wait a little longer, but you can't wait as
long as Brian, as long as Brian McClelland did so. Definitely check out
that ADPDA to get the advantage on those people who might just be looking at
a set of ranks or looking at p NHL draft results. Heaven forbid,
let's take a break, come back and going back to Cali, to the
Latch Angeles game. Well, we're back to talk a little bit about fantracks.
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Followers work well. Is this other podcast, Daber Prospect Report With our friend
Peter Harling. I do a solo show called Dynasty Sports Life. I talk
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Follow us on Twitter, slash x at fan Hockey, Life is me at
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until next time, keep living that fantasy hockey life. M