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Private debt is where the calamities have
come from. It's the thing that influences

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economic outcomes the most. And if
you look at back, private sector debt

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in the United States has gone from
about thirty five percent of GDP in nineteen

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forty five, you know, ex
in World War Two, to one hundred

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and sixty percent today, So it's
you know, it's almost Quintaholk in that

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period. You're listening to carry Letts's
Financial Survival Network where you get valuable information.

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00:00:30,679 --> 00:00:35,640
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Network dot com and get your free
newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now

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more than ever. Welcome, you
are listening to the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host carry Letts. Well, hey, you look at the debt,

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maybe your own personal debt, maybe
others the country, companies, corporations

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around the globe, municipalities, you
name it. Everybody's in hawk up to

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their eyeballs. No one seems to
care about it. We've got a debt

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fueled economy, We've got a debt
based currency, and basically we no longer

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have capitalism, we have creditism.
And what can go wrong? What can

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possibly go wrong? Well, we're
going to talk to Richard Vig. Richard,

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you've done a lot that you've venture
capitalist authors, Secretary of Banking and

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Securities in the Great State or once
Great State of Pennsylvania, and now you've

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got a book out called The Paradox
of Debt? What is the Paradox of

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Debt? Well, thank you so
much for having me. Yeah, our

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book, The Paradox of Debt is
really about out dead as in dual nature,

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it is both a creator and the
destroyer. You can't have economic growth

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without debt, and yet that can
get us in a lot of trouble witness

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the two thousand and eight global financial
crisis. You know, it's funny when

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you talk about that. He makes
me think of Robert Kiyosaki, and he

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says, there's good debt and there's
bad debt. Good debt is money you

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borrow that helps you make more money
and you know, create jobs, expand

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your company. Bad debt is debt
that is taken on to further consumption of

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things like flat screen TVs. He
even sees a your own home as a

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consumer item. What's your take on
it? What's good debt, what's bad

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debt? Well, you know,
I sometimes the lines are fuzzy, but

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I think it relates to a personal
debt. His guidelines seem to me to

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be very useful. If you can
buy a home at a at a fair

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value, you know, not in
a moan, for example, and you

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you don't over leverage that long,
it can be a way to create wealth

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for you over time. If you
borrow, as he says for the flatscreen

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TV or robecation, that's the kind
of thing that can and regularly get folks

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into trouble. Well, you know, you're in different cycles in your life.

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Right when you're young, you get
married, you don't have kids,

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you're kind of like maybe or you're
about to have kids. You're in the

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acquiring phase of your life. Then
later on the kids are gone, they're

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through with college, and you're in
the kind of you not in the acquisition

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phase of life anymore. You're more
just experiential kind of phase. Enjoying your

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life is sometimes a debt justified to
have a better life, to have more

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fun in the present at the expense
of the future. Well, we kind

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of have a development over the last
decade or two on that very issue,

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and that has been the massive increasing
student debt. You know, going back

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about a little over ten years,
total student debt and the economy was two

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hundred and fifty billion. Today it's
close to one point eight trillion. And

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that has been a function of several
things, among which are for profit colleges

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that have degrees or diplomas of questionable
value. And as a result, we

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have, you know, something on
order forty three million Americans a student debt,

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and it's not just pay in thirty
year olds, it's sixty and seventy

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year old and that has changed the
dynamic that you're talking about somewhat. You

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see folks leaving college with all board
debt as a percent of their income that

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used to be true. You see
a delay in household formation, buying homes,

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getting married, having kids, and
you have folks you know, later

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in life that have more debt particulars
relates to student debt than they get a

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generation and go. So it's sewing
all of those things that used to be

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true in an adverse way. Yeah, I totally agree with you there,

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and uh, you know, student
learned debt has not you know, the

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idea is to increase the number of
people getting college educations. In theory,

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that's a good thing, right,
But in reality, all it's done is

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line the pockets of the educational industrial
complex. Right. Well, and one

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thing spiritual or true is that tuition
in real terms has gone up significantly and

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that part of the equate we just
have folks incurring more debt early in their

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lot. Yeah. So, but
I just had a guest on the other

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day. You don't have to really
take on all that ted. Yeah,

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if you're going into STEM and there's
a reason why you need to go to

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an Ivy League college or one of
these high cost colleges, yes, definitely.

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But maybe our values as a society
or a little skewed, and that

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we're reaching for the you know,
the Mercedes Bens of education when a little

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what a FUNDAI would be adequate.
Well, and yeah, another phenomenal.

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I think that's true. We're we
have another phenomenon as well, and that

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it's been the kind of the buyas
towards a liberal arts education as opposed to

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more you know, functional education.
And I there was a haunting moment I

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had. I did a tour of
the country a couple of years ago when

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I went around the fifteen different states, stopped to loutbolks, you know,

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and it disciplined way about these issues. And there was a general there,

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a big guyl in his undergraduate degree
and level aren't had gotten a man sure

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saying this was in Charleston, South
Carolina. Gut a master's degree in music,

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was now a teacher of music at
several of the area colleges, which

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he was doing without bil fire benefits, because you know, kenure is something

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that's the university shy away from as
much as possible. So he was supplementing

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his income with gigs as a musician
around town. So here he is in

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his forties. He still got over
a hundred thousand dollars in death. His

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brother in law, as he reported
denying, was a plumber making well little

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one hundred thousand dollars a year with
generous benefits and z raking death. And

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he looked at me and he said, you know, why didn't somebody tell

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me when I was eighteen years old? So yeah, you have a buy

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it's I think up and down the
line that might not be the most productive.

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Yeah. So getting back to our
debt paradox, here, what are

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we supposed to do well? It
is a paradox we you know, we

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look at both government debt and private
debt in this book, and we look

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at it for the seven largest countries
in the world. There's two hundred countries

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in the world, but seven of
them together constitute two thirds of the world

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GDP. So if you look at
it just so seven, you really have

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I think a fairly comprehensive understanding the
world and within though, private sector debt

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is a much larger phenomenon than public
debts and US as an example, private

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sector debt is about forty trillion,
government debts about thirty trillions. So private

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debt is where the calamities have come
from. It's the thing that influences economic

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outcomes the most. And if you
look at that, private sector debt in

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the United States has gone from about
thirty five percent of GDP in nineteen forty

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five, you know, exit in
World War Two, to one hundred and

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sixty percent today, So it's you
know, it's almost when told in that

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period, folks are just lugging around
a lot more. And you know,

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so we need several things on the
private debt side. One of them is

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what you've already mean in which is
just more discipline around the issue session.

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I think we need to find more
creative ways to let folks get out of

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their debt in affair, but more
straightforward way. And another thing we need

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to do is be vigilant for rapid
build build ups and unproductive debt. Has

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happened, you know in two thousand
and two to two thousand and seven.

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It brought our great financial crisis.
You know, in two thousand and two,

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Mortgard debt was five trillion. By
the time you get to two thousand

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and seven, it's ten trillion,
it's doubled, and a little over four

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and a half years. That's millions
of loan being made to popes with no

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income, no jobs, no assets, are very little of me about.

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It's millions of homes that said empty. We had a global financial crisis and

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nobody you know, in the mainstream
economics profession even noticed and gave us any

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forewarning of that. So you know
we need we need reform up and down

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long, Yeah, that's for sure. And you know, things like taken

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out a student loan which could adversely
impact a young kid, basically a child

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at seventeen eighteen, you know,
could ruin their lives, make them into

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a total death sleeve. There's no
counseling for this. Nobody explains to this

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kid, not that they would necessarily
understand it anyway, because it's complicated and

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they don't have the life experience,
but nobody explains to the kid what they're

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in for for this stuff. You
know, it's really you really have to

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a disservice to this, uh two
people in this situation, you know,

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Yeah, there's there's very little financial
bastion. We actually when I was banking

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Secretary and Pennsylvania, we actually had
a department that provided this training. We

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provided a lot of training students to
the elderly, you know, the military,

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well franklingtoncar started individuals about to re
enter the work wars, and we

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did a lot and all totally it
was just to drop on the bucket.

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The lack of knowledge around these subjects
is so vast. Yeah, I mean

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you and I being professionals, having
dealt with death, mortgages whatever our whole

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lives, we get it. But
you know when they when a person my

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age, my advanced age, goes
to take out a reverse mortgage, you

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know what happens. You have to
take like an eight hour course on all

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the ins and outs and what you're
going to be paying and what can happen

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in your estate and all that stuff. And to me, it just seems

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like there should be mandatory education,
just like the when we were growing up,

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cigarettes didn't have a warning on the
label on the side. Now they

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got warning labels all over. Maybe
every loan that you take out and every

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debt that you incur should come with
a warning label. You know, I

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was unaware of what you just said
about the reverse mortgage. That's actually very

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encouraging to hear that, and it
sounds like a terrific idea that perhaps is

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citing a lot of seniors citizens from
Calamate. Yeah, well you learn that

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right. There's no free lunches,
right do we learn that in economics?

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00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,879
Right? There's no such thing as
a free line. It's not it's not

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like the folks at the lottery or
would happen believe. Yeah, well,

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you gotta be in it to win
it, right, you got to be

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in it to win it. But
seriously, we could just do so much

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better than we're doing here. You
know. That's my grape is where really

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it's unnecessary the issues that we're going
through here. They're all avoidable and fixable.

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And maybe that's the crux of your
book. Yeah, we we also

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sent an area and it well spend
time that which is a far more controversial

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and and really that's you know,
in and around the subject of government debt

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and also around inequality and to give
you a sense of that in the pandemic,

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you know, when the government spends
money, it doesn't disappear and it

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effectively goes into asshole checking cap.
So in the in the very period for

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roughly nineteen eighty one to the present, total debt in our economy is it's

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grown from one hundred and twenty five
percent it's a two hundred sixty percent of

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GDP, just been massive growth.
But in that exact same period, households

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network that's assets minus lineabilities has grown
even and even greaterar map from three hundred

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fifty percent of GDP to almost six
hundred percent of GDP. So the growth

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and debt has created an increase and
household well and in the three years of

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the pandemic we saw this from dramatically
eight trillion dollars eight trillion dollars increase in

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government debt and well three year period
caused a thirty trillion dollars increase in household

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well. So the phenomenon of debts
bringing wealth is not one well understood.

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But as we go to great links
the show, I'm nost other of that

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increase in well goes to the top
one percent or ten percent, right,

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you want to seize the wealthiest people
in the economy. So the thirty trillion

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and wealth and was created in the
three year created in the candidate, which

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was by the way, the greatest
theoryod of wealth creation in economic history in

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the United States is best we can
measure. And probably twenty three trillion,

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that thirty trillion went to the top
ten percent, so it actually increased inequality

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and to a greater degree than we
really seemed, probably after we're serving end

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a long time. Yeah, yeah, Well, so was it really wealth

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creation that took place though during the
pandemic or was it inflation induced wealth creation?

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Well you can break it down and
you can come to your own conclusion.

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But you know, basically, the
eight trillion of the governments spent ends

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up in the household checking against then, so that much is real also,

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you know, and then the remaining
twenty two million charity and excuse me,

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is roughly divided between the increase and
the value of real estate and then the

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increase in the value of the stock
market. And as we know, those

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go up and down. If we
look at the trend over an extended period.

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In this case, you know,
most of that occurred in a sixty

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to sixty five year period starting l
forty to forty five year period starting in

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outteen eighteen. You know, it's
gone up and down, but over time,

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the trend is always up over time. Like I said, hustling,

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that work was you know, three
hundred and fifty percent of GDP and nineteen

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eighteen today it's six hundred percent.
I'm JDP all right, so I'll buy

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you. There's a wealth effect,
but that wealth could be very fleeting.

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You know. It's just like when
you take out a student loan. Uh

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hey, it's your liability, but
it's the government's asset. In theory,

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but you know, now you're you're
you're exactly right, You're exactly route.

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And the important principle there is you
don't have assets without liabilities. So you

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know, somebody's wealth is gaining over
here, that means somebody's becoming more indebted

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when we're there, and that's that's
the increase in inequality that we we talk

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about. So, you know,
what you say is undoubtedly true, but

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it kind of feeds into the division
that's decided and we've been saying. So

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it's true in the US, by
the way, that's that's true in every

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GUD. So debt increases income inequality, right, because inflation does it.

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Well, yeah, inflation certainly does
because the people holding the assets make all

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the money, right, that's right, that's right, So they're they're the

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net beneficary, all right. So
interesting phenomena, and it's kind of it's

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kind of a conundrum for our policy
makers. And it also fits into demographics

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too, because we've got a appending
demographic disaster in the country because people aren't

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having kids, they aren't getting married, right, Yeah, it's it's it's

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something that most folks don't notice,
and it's apting in the United States,

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but it's happening in a much more
pronounced way in places like China, in

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Germany and Spain and Japan, you
know, were our demographic picture isn't that

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great, but it's a lot better
than most of the rest of the world.

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But anywhere you look. That deceleration
and population growth is creating all sorts

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of problems that are frankly very interest
I just looked at this number the other

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00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:07,079
day. The average age the immediate
edited in the nineteen eight thirty. Today

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00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,319
the meeting age is thirty nine.
That's substanct. We're getting old. Yeah,

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I feel it. I feel even
older now that you said it.

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But it's a legitimate problem for which
the government has no you know, in

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Russia they were paying people to get
married and have kids. I don't think

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that's really a long term solution,
and it may no difference. Yeah,

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in the end they just blew it
on vodka, I guess, right.

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00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,680
But yeah, I mean, and
there's a there's a there's an aspect of

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that where it becomes unrecoverable. I
remember looking at the data in Spain and

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looking for women, so you know, you kind of have to look at

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women because they're the ones that advocates, and the number of women is saying

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00:19:55,920 --> 00:20:00,279
that we're age. The road to
five was thirty perc lower than the number

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of women eight thirty to third and
fove Well, well, there's kind of

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no way to recover from that,
you know, unless less those well three

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year olds are going to be willing
to have inter fifteen kids when they're when

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they get through to the age.
It's an irreversible phenomenon. So some some

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I think the US and still in
a position where we can we can just

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staying in population brow that's not training
some countries very very very much the case.

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Well, we covered a lot of
issues here. Really appreciate to your

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00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:41,680
coming on with us, sharing your
book, Richard again, tell us the

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00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,759
book where we find it, wherever
fine books used to be sold. I

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00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:49,480
assume absolutely it's paradox of debt,
and you can find our own Barge and

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00:20:49,559 --> 00:20:56,599
Noble and Amazon. We have to
hold paradox. I'm so grateful to be

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able to come on the show,
and we're very grateful to have you.

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Sure, if you've got a question
for Richard to myself, shoot me an

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00:21:02,839 --> 00:21:07,559
email k l at krylts dot com. The link to his site is in

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00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,559
the show notes to this interview on
Financial Survival Network dot com. Make sure

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00:21:11,599 --> 00:21:14,880
you go sign up for your free
newsletter. Richard. Sure, we'll have

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00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,559
you on again. Appreciate you stopping
bye, Thank you, bye bye,

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00:21:18,039 --> 00:21:25,720
Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial
Survival Network your solution to today's trying times.

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00:21:26,079 --> 00:21:30,920
For the latest, go to Financial
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