WEBVTT

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Hey, guys, it's Jack.
I just wanted to talk to you today

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about a way that you can help
support the podcast if you're not already to

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support the channel is to become a
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that. I mean, we also
do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers,

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channel and podcast if you'd like to, and we really appreciate that, So

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go and check us out at patreon
dot com slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone,

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welcome to another episode of Iizon.
I'm Andy Milman. Hey, before

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we go into the intro, everyone
else so you don't have to come back

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to me. Very excited today to
have the famous Mick Molroy, famous but

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very self effacing and modest, so
he's haunted. Get hold of Mick Molroy

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back needs you know when you say
no, it needs no introduction, then

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you go ahead and introduce him anyway, unless you've been sleeping under a rock

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in the Teamhouse environs and really had
ignored what is going on with the coolest

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of coolest guests. Mick has been
a habitual guest on the team House,

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former former dansty for the Middle East. Mick is clearing him maybe because before

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I've said special operations regardless, you
know, and and of course senior paramilitary

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officer in the CIA, most importantly
a former marine, which brings the ratio

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of this show back to three to
one. Okay, all right over to

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you, Jason and d Well thinks
of well, Mick thinks desperately, how

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do I follow that one up?
Jason Lyons ADMITI and this is I'm figuring

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it more and more every day every
week. This is like a marine sigh.

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Up, We're running it eventually happens
everywhere. Is awesome thing going on

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in your will cool to us?
What I mean, things you can talk

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to us about are the stuff that
you can It's okay, we're all friends

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here, Ah, just random thoughts. Well, I'd first like to highlight

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the great work that Jack Murphy did
on Willie Murkison. Yeah. I've been

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talking to him about that for a
long time, and WILLI is is a

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legend in the SF community. The
Ranger community and the paramilitary community, and

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that's where I knew him. Literally, I think the first time I met

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Willie was in the early stages of
Afghanistan and me and another ground branch guy

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were walking across the front of Ariana
where the station would eventually be, and

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Willy was there and he said,
Hey, can you guys take me up

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to that place called bog Roam.
You know, he said, you guys

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look like your PM dudes, which
we were like, okay, that's a

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that's probably a compliment. And then
he had one backpack and like a body

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armor and a rifle and I don't
know, and he was he had to

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be in his sixties by then,
but wow, I met Willy that he

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was and you know, he really
and he is a very self effacing,

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modest individual who was super reluctant to
talk to Jack, and not obviously because

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of Jack, but because he just
didn't want to highlight himself. So we

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really had to get his friends to
highlight him to get to a point where

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we had, you know, had
that confidence or from Willy and he and

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he and he and I really do
hope and that's obviously up to the Pentagon

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to do this, but his Distinguished
Cross Army Cross and getting upgraded to a

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Medal of honor something. They have
to obviously go through the process, and

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I fully trust that they'll do it
correctly and that'll be the right answer.

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But I can tell you, as
I guess, not a objective observer,

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somebody's greatly admires him. I've talked
to his friends, I've talked to people

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who have been there, and they
all thought that that should be the case.

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So if they're talking to the people
that were co located with him,

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they're talking to his peers from that
time, I think they will come up

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with the right answer. So I
just wanted to start off with that.

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Yeah, I mean they did,
like super it took him like a long

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time to write this piece and it's
huge and Sean and Sean, Yeah,

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it's definitely a book. Like I
think it'll become a they'll make it a

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book eventually too. Yeah. I
got to meet him, to meet him

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probably two thousand and starting in two
thousand and nine up until I left the

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agency, and so we'd have lunch
whenever I was back at headquarters, meet

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and him in a make I don't
know if you knew Bobby Harris. He

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was, Yeah, he was my
mentor. I was there at the agency

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and so he introduced me, and
uh, just those guys were just like

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when I first met Willie I first
walked into his office, he just had

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this look on his face, this
like serious look, and I was like,

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oh boy, and then immediately he
just cracked a joke and was just

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the coolest guy. So it was
It's definitely been an honor to know him.

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Yeah. Absolutely, he was like
the grand grandpop of yes Billy Yeah,

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yeah, him and Billy Wall,
right, we have a couple.

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We have a lot of like we
had a lot of legends there, absolutely,

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but a big big whereas Billy Wall
you know yeah, I mean it's

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not that he does to lecture suck
it, but he is he has been

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more out there, right, So
kudos to yeah, Jack and the and

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the team house for another thing.
And Sean Naylor. Sean Naylor to Taylor,

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Ye, dealing Donald was a bit
part of that too. So Mat

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tell us everything, tell us everything
that's going on, and you I want

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to know coordinates. Ah, okay, well what's the closest alligate of the

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boat? So next week I might
be going is the natal summit in Washington,

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Okright, so that's coming out of
time when you have, uh,

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you know, the political questions about
the future support to Ukraine. I guess

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this is the way to put it, you know, with La Pens Party,

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what is it national or something national? You know, it was the

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National Front but it's changed. Uh, I forget national socialists. I'm sure

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nice, right, but it's the
it's the you know. I guess you

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could say the far right, I
mean always was it is, all right,

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yeah, definitely been far right and
then. But I don't know how

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you get elected by the majority if
you're on far right or left. But

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I get I get the point.
She's definitely far far right by most calculations.

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Uh. Most struggling, of course, is Heer already stated questioning of

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continuing support to Ukraine is my biggest
concern, especially when it comes to stability

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in Europe. Right, And I
think it's important to point out that,

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you know, some people kind of
couch this as some kind of charity.

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It's not at all. I mean, if you take it from the US

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perspective, I mean, how much
taxpayer dollars we spend on our national security

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A lot? Right, And I
do think our strength is relative to our

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adversaries. Right, So, if
you have somebody willing to deplete your adversary

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up to fifty percent of their military
capacity, it's not charity. It's a

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good investment, right, I mean, it's just flat out dollars and cents.

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I do think there's an ethical and
moral requirement to defend democracies. But

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even if you don't, you could
take that out of the equation and still

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say, well, it's still makes
sense to contribute arms and munitions, weapon

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systems and everything we can to deplete
our probably most dangerous adversary, right.

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I mean, I think China is
considered more uh, you know, significant,

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especially with their economy and their capacity, But Russia seems to be the

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most dangerous, right yeah. I
mean one country out of those two did

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invade another country. Right, So, and even if I mean, the

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bottom line is obviously Russia is a
significant adversary and Ukraine is taking not only

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the funds and support from the US
but also NATO, and they're putting it

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to good work. I mean,
they get they get criticized for how their

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counter and counter offensive win, which
I don't think was necessarily fair because the

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same people that criticize them overinflated what
would likely happen right and then and then,

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and they criticize them for not being
able to do it. But it

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also came at a time when there
was a significant lull in support. So,

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if anything, it was the fault
of the supporter, is not the

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fault of the people executing the offensive, right. I mean, if you

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look at the way the US military
would have went about that, I don't

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even know that we would have done
it without even air parody, let alone

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superiority. And we've never had to
do anything remotely like that, exactly remotely

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like that. And anyone who says
that we have and tries to throw the

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Gulf wall or anything from the Sycamore
Wall just does not understand the modern battlefield,

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you know. And we're using all
techniques SOSA with the limited amount of

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smoke. I mean, they were, you know, I mean it was

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ridiculous. What we taught them was
inadequate to the task. That's not a

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criticism. We just don't have that
frame of reference. You can't expect them

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and what they get down to like
ten to one ratio of artillery, you

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know, for everyone they had and
were coming their way. So, I

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mean, if if there's any fault
in that, I think it's the fault

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of the supporting element, right,
the US and NATO. For especially the

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US, I should say, I
mean, we had the lull with the

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political machinations of the support. Now
that's been past the National Security supplemental,

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you know, hopefully we're going to
catch up and we're gonna we're going to

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give them what they need to actually
win and not just survive. Right,

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I've got a quick question for you, because this is really confused the shit

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out of me. I mean,
you, you and I come from communities

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that are not traditionally liberal or left
wing. Right, you know, we'd

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like to think politically bipartisan. But
yes, let's be honest, we tend

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to be on the right of center. And yet to a man, and

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I've never met one woman, I've
never I have not met a guy who

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is wearing uniform or who is in
the agency who has said anything other than

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or former by the way, anything
other than we need to support Ukraine.

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It's a no brainer, you know. So what I don't understand is the

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population beyond who consider themselves conservative and
yet up blocking what is a no brainer

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is you point out money for Lives
right were substituting. It's expensive, but

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nothing is as expensive as you know, a dead American right, so it

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is a bargain. As you point
out, how can people not understand that?

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Do you think it's a lack of
education or do you think it's just

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such hardwired partisanship that nothing can show
them the reality of geopolitics. I agree,

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and it's been baffling to me.
I mean, the only thing that

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I can. And I'm not a
partisan person. I don't belong to a

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political party, but I would agree
with you. Most people in the military

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and CIA, at least when it
comes to national security tend to fall in

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the right side of the spectrum right. Maybe not so much in uh,

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you know, domestic issues and stuff
like that, but certainly on the national

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security side, you know, strong
defense and kind of a without the partisanship,

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the Raking and type view right.
I don't know where there's people win

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in the Revolican Party, to be
honest, I know they're still there.

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I talked to them, I see
them, I just never hear I never

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hear them represented it represented, excuse
me, in the in the party anymore,

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even though there are plenty out there, and uh, and that's troubling

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because if if it's just purely partisan
and they're looking at you know, talking

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points of what have you, and
somehow they came up with that we shouldn't

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support Ukraine, I just don't.
I can't follow the logic. I'd really,

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I really can't. And and if
if they think that appeasement, which

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has been proven to be the wrong
course of action so many times in history,

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and not just in history, but
in that part of the world,

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they think that's the way to go, I mean, I just can't see

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how they could logically get there.
But I mean I do see different political

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side, so I do think I
can see even if I agree with one

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or the other. But this is
one of those things. I just don't

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see how they could, you know, follow logical steps and get to the

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point that we should appease try to
force Ukraine into heating territory. I mean

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American mentality. Can imagine somebody took
over part of you, Wes, somebody

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came to us and said give away
Texas or something. I mean, it

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would be like, yeah, right, So I don't understand why that's the

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case. I do, of course, you know, I mean around the

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edges, you know, they spending
it in all the right areas well.

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I think that should be the case
for all security assistants we give. We

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should always audit it, we should
always ensure that it's not going to the

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wrong places. It's not unique to
Ukraine. So that don't even view that

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as a as an argument, because
the answer is that, well, we

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should always do that, you know, whether on Israel or going to Ukraine

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or whoever, which we do,
and they're all subject to everything from lehi

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vedding to as much as we can
monitoring. You know, I get it.

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In Ukraine we had a huge issue
with accountability, but that was because

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of our own policies, you know
what I mean. It's you're going to

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pour money into a country with some
history of corruption, some of it's going

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to get creamed off. But at
the end of the day, you haven't

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lost a single American soldier. It
comes back to that, you know,

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So at the end of the day, it's like, hey, you've got

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to You've got to understand this,
and that's that is my concern. During

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the Cold War, of course,
there was the you know, the logic

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of containment that was consistent, right
but we've lost that now. And my

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concern is not so much Ukraine or
I mean whatever the country is of the

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day, but our standing on the
wall because no one knows, you know,

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in the discussions now in Europe,
no one knows what our policy is

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going to be off the November vice
of the Ukraine, and that is really

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sunning, right and NATO right.
So yeah, one of the big things

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about the summit, of course,
is talking about how Ukraine could eventually get

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into NATO, right, And that's
going to be a touchy subject because if

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they come in when they're still fighting
Russia, then you'll have an ARTA flight

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situation. So I mean, one
could argue, although you can't do the

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past, is that if we would
let them in NATO when they asked fourteen

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years ago, they wouldn't be a
war going on right now. But that's

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that's uh, you know again,
that's what aren't the bridge. That's going

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to be one of the big discussions
this week, uh in Washington. The

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other one, I'm sure, which
may not be on the agenda, is

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what's going to happen if there's a
change of administrations, you know, if

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if is there really a desire too
I don't think you can pull out of

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NATO, but certainly reduce our presence, reduce our participation, and maybe even

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a move to pull out of NATO. I don't know, that is completely

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not in our interests. It's the
most significant military coalition in history, and

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the only time it's responded to Autoicle
five is on the US. Yeah,

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for the US. Right, how
long was NATO in Afghanistan? Right?

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I mean, look at it,
NATO other than the US, look at

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it from their perspective. I mean, and they were losing people too,

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of course, as you guys all
know. The other part of that is

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this idea that somehow and everybody should
pay what they're required, right, the

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two percent. But that's in their
own national defense. It's not it's not

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a country club, right, there's
not a you're not chipping in, So

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we're paying more because these guys are
pinning the bar. Right, We're not

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going to reduce our defense spending.
Yeah, Like, so everybody knows if

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everybody went up to four percent and
NATO, the US is still not going

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to go, oh, you know
what, we're going to reduce it never

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gonna happen. We're gonna find ourselves
to be able to fight on our own.

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Well, we'll find some other way
to waste that money. Yes,

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we're not going to cut our bill, So it's not it's not one of

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those things. And that's how it
seems to get couched. NATO is they

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as they should And now I think
there Russia is focusing their concentration here.

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They should pay more for their own
national defense. We should have, but

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that is US should lead it.
We should lead NATO in becoming even more

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effective to the point where Russia would
never even consider attacking it. That's the

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best defense is to be so strong
that nobody would ever you know, dare

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mess with you. It's not I
couldn't. I mean, I couldn't agree

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more. One. One positive aspect
though, is and I think this is

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independent of US decisions. You've got
countries like Poland really stepping up into a

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position of leadership, you know,
in the eastern flank, raising their GDP

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to four percent, you know,
even the Czech Republic. You know,

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even so, even countries that aren't
frontline countries are all now kind of stepping

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up to the plate for domestic political
reasons as much as you know, geopolitical

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realization that the US is no longer
a necessarily as launch a partner as perhaps

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they you know, they previously thought
that's absolutely right. And I mean,

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maybe this is rhetoric. It's still
not known, does the wrong message,

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but nothing happens. But in the
event that it's not just rhetoric and it's

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significant, and then hopefully there'll be
some voices that have influence if there is

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a change administration. Yeah, it
can turn this around, right and and

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really focus the most senior leaders into
understanding how significant NATO is for the US

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in our national security. So,
Mick, what are your thoughts on the

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recent Biden administration authorization of US built
weapons use inside Russian borders and is it

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I'm reading from what I'm reading it's
not as big a deal as people are

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making it. Then I'm reading in
other places that it is a huge sea

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change. What are your thoughts on
that, Jason, So, I mean,

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again, it's another one of those
hindsight's twenty twenty. I mean,

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I think I would have pushed,
if I was there talking to the President

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to give the type of weapons systems
that they needed to actually win earlier on.

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I understand the balance. We didn't
want to We didn't want to push

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Russia to the point where they felt
it was actually at war with NATO.

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But I think by slow roll in
that we actually prolonged the conflict itself.

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And that same thing with the actual
use of the weapon systems in Russia.

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And to my understanding, unless it's
changed, is it's it's mostly you know,

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you can respond to the point of
origin of an attack into Ukraine,

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right so, and most of these
attacks are going directly at civilian populations,

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so you know, the quickest answer
to me was, well, stop shooting

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freaking cruise missiles at cities and then
you wouldn't get you wouldn't get the incoming

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right. I mean, it seems
like that anybody would follow that as a

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course of action, and maybe it
expands to the beyond that after a while.

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If if Russia doesn't change its uh, you know, it's posture on

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withdrawing quite frankly, then it should
probably increase. But I think it was

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it was probably should have happened earlier, but it was a good decision by

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the administration to allow them to do
MCXINO. If the the British and the

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French have put similar restrictions on Ukrainian
use of storm Shadow and Scalp missiles in

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particular. So I heard, and
I do some informal advising with another group

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of folks to the mod over there. I heard that they don't. The

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French don't. That said the same
La Pennan interview I just read about support

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to NATO said she would not allow
them to use French systems at all at

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Russia. So that could be going
from having the more expanded under mccrone's policy

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to be able to do things beyond
just what they could do with, at

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least on the French side, the
French systems to not being able to use

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them at all in Russia. So
that'll just make ours more important for them

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to be able to use absolutely,
And I would say, I mean,

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if you've read the ten point plan
of Zeletski, it's all reasonable, of

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course, and it's something I think
then hopefully the NATO summit confirms this week.

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Yeah, very very heavy emphasis on
air defense for obvious reasons. But

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I agree with you trip feeding NATO
weapon systems or US weapon systems has allowed

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the Russians to adapt. That's right. If we would have just looked at

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it, we could have turned it
over the Pentagon as you well know,

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Andy had just said what would we
do to what would we how would we

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plan and what would we need to
do this, and then we should have

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just supported them based on that,
you know what I mean, all these

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this is what we need to do
it, this is what we're all our

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allies, and we're going to find
out who's going to participate, and then

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this is what they need to get
this done. And that should be the

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overall campaign one hundred percent instead of
constantly saying what do you need? What

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do you need? Which changed and
and by the time that we could deliver

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often their requirements had moved on.
You know, there are certain things set

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up system like ad offense, like
long range precision fiens. But yeah,

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I think that's a great idea,
man, I mean it's a great point.

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You know. Let we're providing all
this stuff, so let us do

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some analysis and help the Ukrainians at
the same time, same time and sure

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that what we're providing has a definite
purpose and is being used in a coherent

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way in a coherent campaign exactly.
And then the support wherever we can on

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the ground, you know, intelligence
wise, which whatever they need, right,

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because the way to get this done
is to win. You know,

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what I mean is to push Putin
to such a place that he either starts

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withdrawing a mass or comes to the
table with something that the Ukrainian people can

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accept. And it shouldn't be up
to them, right, they're the ones,

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it's their country, and they're the
ones that have been doing all the

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fighting and dyeing here. So I
mean, I think there are allies,

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include the US that support them and
what they're willing to have to work to

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want to accept. It's the perfect
opportunity fore a light touch approach. Right.

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Unfortunately, we go black and white. We say black or white in

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a sense, we say okay,
we're either all in boots on the ground

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and then we flood the place right
or or we restrict it totally. No

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one's going in there, no one's
cutting, no one's going anywhere near remotely

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near the line of fire. And
now we've restricted ourselves and cut off all

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opportunities for useful use of proxies or
in order to you know, to further

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our own goals. We we just
aren't learning from our from our adversaries.

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But and I don't get on the
bandwagon, but to your point, yeah,

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you know, Meke, I mean, as you know, I mean

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a consistent paramilitary presence with sources all
the way through would have been enabled a

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really consistent and escalating in a good
way on the Ukrainian inside campaign. But

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I think we really slimied ourselves by
having kind of this blanket prohibition of having

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USG guys on the ground. And
I think we have to re look at

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that again that it was an absurd
reaction to over perceived risk and it prevented

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us from really leveraging to good you
know, our special operations forces, as

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we keep saying we're going to do, when when push comes to shove,

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we pull them all out because we're
scared they're going to get hurt. You

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know. The same thing goes for
agency paramilitaries. Yeah, And I think

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that's I mean, one lesson are
there's plenty in this conflict, is having

330
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that continuous relationship with the Special Operations
Community d O d CIA pays off.

331
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Right. These relationships endure. They
give us the capacity to not only there

332
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special operations which can sometimes be the
and they were the original resistance. Right

333
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when people started going, oh hell, the key V isn't going to fallow

334
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three days, right, that a
lot of those guys and now it's the

335
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entire Ukrainian military, but a lot
of them at first were the special operations

336
00:26:17.480 --> 00:26:21.480
for US running around with man portable
weapons. That we've been with them,

337
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so I think it gives us an
inn. It gives us a knowledge of

338
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what's going on and what could happen, and if there is a need to

339
00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:34.359
surge and then fully support a partner
force like this, we already have the

340
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framework for it. So and I
think we saw that in Ukraine for sure.

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And it does quite frankly show whichever
adversary decides to tack our partners that

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the US is there. You know, one of the not to get off

343
00:26:48.960 --> 00:26:52.880
on a starlets story, but a
story that was told to me when I

344
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first got to gb If you think
back in the Peloponnesian Wars, the Spartans

345
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and the Athenians had allies all around
the Mediterranean, right, and the one

346
00:27:04.559 --> 00:27:11.119
of the Spartan allies was now in
Sicily, and they were losing pretty dramatically

347
00:27:11.240 --> 00:27:17.680
to you know Athenian amphibious force that
lanted there. And apparently the Spartans only

348
00:27:17.720 --> 00:27:22.519
sent I think five or six dudes, right, and one of them was

349
00:27:22.519 --> 00:27:29.000
a general and you could tell by
the way there the main went. And

350
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apparently, according to the person that
told me this in gb who like me,

351
00:27:33.680 --> 00:27:37.880
was somewhat of a history unt,
when they just saw the Spartans and

352
00:27:37.960 --> 00:27:42.000
their scarlet capes on the on the
top, it totally changed the battle,

353
00:27:44.039 --> 00:27:45.279
right. They didn't even know there's
only six of them, right, you

354
00:27:45.319 --> 00:27:48.599
know, but they saw them.
They said, holy crap, the Spartans

355
00:27:48.599 --> 00:27:53.559
are here, right and and and
and I always thought of that when it

356
00:27:53.599 --> 00:28:00.200
comes to especially all US military,
but especially the special operations components. Right

357
00:28:00.599 --> 00:28:06.119
there, they have so much more
effect on the battlespace than their numbers.

358
00:28:06.680 --> 00:28:10.839
Yeah, so when they look up
and they see those you know, green

359
00:28:10.839 --> 00:28:15.519
berets, those seals, those barsok
raiders, there's uh even just the rumor

360
00:28:15.759 --> 00:28:22.400
of them right right, It's it's
almost like seeing those Spartans on the on

361
00:28:22.480 --> 00:28:26.640
the horizon up on the on the
ridge line. I think I think that

362
00:28:27.079 --> 00:28:33.000
does provide a lot of uh power
of the United States. That's it's hard

363
00:28:33.000 --> 00:28:41.160
to calculate what it is exponentially.
Mick. I hate to bring you back

364
00:28:41.200 --> 00:28:47.880
to an area where you devoted so
much of your life, but after after

365
00:28:48.039 --> 00:28:51.720
I'm discussing you know, Ukraine,
which is already taught, always tough of

366
00:28:51.799 --> 00:28:56.119
my you know my list, but
what about the Middle East? I mean,

367
00:28:56.119 --> 00:28:59.160
can you can you give us just
a quick wrap up and solve everything

368
00:28:59.440 --> 00:29:04.200
and say yeah, no, you
know you have a few cocktails and you

369
00:29:04.200 --> 00:29:07.240
think you solved that every night and
then you can't remember what the answer was,

370
00:29:07.319 --> 00:29:14.359
right, Yeah, So I just
got back from there. You know,

371
00:29:14.799 --> 00:29:18.640
I am involved, and I speak
for the group I'm part of,

372
00:29:18.759 --> 00:29:23.440
but we are involved in the humanitarian
effort in the Gaza, the maritime corridor.

373
00:29:26.640 --> 00:29:30.079
That's very specific. But of course
I covered for ABC NonStop. So

374
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I think right now you were seeing
Prime Minister Nanya, who's supposed to be

375
00:29:34.559 --> 00:29:37.559
here this month, is gonna be
a very pretty busy bunth in DC,

376
00:29:38.440 --> 00:29:41.839
and it looks like he will stop
by the White House and then he'll go

377
00:29:41.839 --> 00:29:48.759
give a jointe speech the cars.
I think it's become you know, policies

378
00:29:48.839 --> 00:29:53.960
in politics is always somewhat together,
but now we're seeing it like essentially completely

379
00:29:55.079 --> 00:30:00.279
merge on both sides. Right,
So you have the current Diviiden administration talking

380
00:30:00.279 --> 00:30:07.400
to people like Benny Gantz, who
is a more moderate individual who's likely to

381
00:30:07.440 --> 00:30:11.319
be the biggest contender for the Prime
Minister against NYA who whenever that happens.

382
00:30:11.640 --> 00:30:15.599
And he's very popular in the US
and for good reason. He's a very

383
00:30:15.640 --> 00:30:22.559
competent former a chief of staff of
the IDF, General h and was the

384
00:30:22.599 --> 00:30:27.400
defense at to the US from Israel. So there's he's not only known for

385
00:30:27.480 --> 00:30:33.079
his reputation, he's known personally.
But so the Divide administration is talking to

386
00:30:33.119 --> 00:30:37.359
him, which obviously doesn't like too
much. And now men yeah, is

387
00:30:37.400 --> 00:30:41.559
going to go and obviously talk to
senior public leaders on the Hill, and

388
00:30:41.599 --> 00:30:44.960
he's been I think a bit critical, although I don't know if it was

389
00:30:45.000 --> 00:30:52.160
warranted on the delivery of weapons ammunitions
to Israel at this time. So you're

390
00:30:52.200 --> 00:30:57.759
kind of seeing the politics and policy
merge on the on the Gaza side,

391
00:30:57.880 --> 00:31:07.039
I think out of Fortunately, the
biggest proponent of a ceasefire in these negotiations

392
00:31:07.799 --> 00:31:12.519
is not one of the components that
can actually ultimately make the decision right,

393
00:31:12.960 --> 00:31:17.720
if that makes sense to So it's
the US right, the US is at

394
00:31:17.759 --> 00:31:22.000
any means possible passing you in,
and I don't disagree with it. It

395
00:31:22.039 --> 00:31:27.359
needs to happen, But there is
reasons that Israel, or at least Prime

396
00:31:27.359 --> 00:31:32.480
ministrom Man, Yeah, who will
not accept it unless he can be sure

397
00:31:32.599 --> 00:31:37.480
that he can continue the war untill
his military objectives are at right, and

398
00:31:37.640 --> 00:31:41.920
there's a reason for Hamas not to
accept any ceasefire. They can then be

399
00:31:42.079 --> 00:31:48.000
turned around and they can go back
into hostilities. They don't want to give

400
00:31:48.079 --> 00:31:53.160
up any of the hostages. Every
time they do they consider that self weak.

401
00:31:53.200 --> 00:31:56.920
And it's pretty clear that a mosque
could care less about the civilian population

402
00:31:57.039 --> 00:32:01.640
in Gaza. So it's really just
about Amas and Amash leadership. So I

403
00:32:01.759 --> 00:32:07.319
think, even though it's not publicly
said that from the Israeli side, they

404
00:32:07.440 --> 00:32:10.359
think they just continue on. They're
moving into phase three, you know,

405
00:32:10.519 --> 00:32:16.440
more counterinsurgency centric, that they can
just put more pressure directly on the Hamas

406
00:32:16.599 --> 00:32:21.720
leadership, like keep tracking them down, tracking them down, and when they

407
00:32:21.799 --> 00:32:24.839
come close, then all of a
sudden you'll see Hamas begging for a seaspire

408
00:32:25.160 --> 00:32:28.880
because that's what they care about,
right, So I think that that's what

409
00:32:29.000 --> 00:32:32.440
they think. And then politically they
might see a change in administration and believe

410
00:32:32.559 --> 00:32:37.839
that they would have more leeway than
they are getting under Biden. And then

411
00:32:37.880 --> 00:32:45.519
how Maas ultimately wants to survive past
it into a ceasefire, and by survive

412
00:32:45.640 --> 00:32:47.599
I mean their leadership. I don't
think they care too much about their troops,

413
00:32:47.960 --> 00:32:53.160
and they obviously don't care anything about
the civilian population there in my opinion,

414
00:32:55.400 --> 00:32:59.519
So what I was going to ask
you to what you know, as

415
00:32:59.559 --> 00:33:05.559
we look at this, it just
seems insoluble, right, because there's just

416
00:33:05.720 --> 00:33:10.759
no alignment of all interests, even
within the Israeli cabinet. But interesting,

417
00:33:12.000 --> 00:33:17.839
the interesting thing I think is that
there is a not growing, but it's

418
00:33:17.880 --> 00:33:23.319
already a huge segment of the US
I mean, is really population. They've

419
00:33:23.440 --> 00:33:30.720
long been disillusioned but Net and Yahoo
and now they see Gance as kind of

420
00:33:30.720 --> 00:33:37.000
their champion with the goal of freeing
the hostages. In other words, they

421
00:33:37.079 --> 00:33:42.440
want to see freeing hostages front and
center. And now you notice Gance is

422
00:33:42.519 --> 00:33:45.559
kind of talking that way too,
right, He's even implicitly criticizing Net and

423
00:33:45.640 --> 00:33:52.640
Yahoo. So I guess my question
is what do you think about the prospects

424
00:33:52.680 --> 00:34:00.559
that they're being company internal cabinet who
will reshuffle right led by Gance obviously opposed

425
00:34:00.680 --> 00:34:07.519
by Smoldrich and Benabin. We do
pay a bit of attention because it does

426
00:34:07.599 --> 00:34:10.320
affect our operations there and I think, you know, if you look at

427
00:34:10.440 --> 00:34:22.599
the recent law adjustment which requires Orthodox
to serve and I'm not Asraeli, but

428
00:34:22.079 --> 00:34:27.920
to be frank to see a bunch
of older males walking down the street protesting

429
00:34:28.679 --> 00:34:32.639
that they have to be drafted when
they have eighteen and nineteen year old kids

430
00:34:32.679 --> 00:34:37.800
that you know, would rather be
doing their art. Major men and women,

431
00:34:38.320 --> 00:34:44.000
young men and women being drafted is
it's kind of an embarrassment, you

432
00:34:44.119 --> 00:34:46.079
know, like, hey man,
I'm not sure why you think you're so

433
00:34:46.239 --> 00:34:52.360
special. And that's what the more
important to what Mick thinks, that's what

434
00:34:52.440 --> 00:34:55.519
the Israeli population things right. But
apparently this is this has caused a rift

435
00:34:55.760 --> 00:35:01.239
in the far right of the coalition. So if it does cause such a

436
00:35:01.360 --> 00:35:06.960
riff that they it ruptures it,
then Prime Minister Danielle will have to stand

437
00:35:07.000 --> 00:35:12.119
for election. And I think just
looking at the polls that Benny Gance stands

438
00:35:12.199 --> 00:35:15.199
a very good chance. I'm a
I'm not a political anelist in an Israel,

439
00:35:15.280 --> 00:35:17.840
but that's what people and I know
I have a lot of is Reeli

440
00:35:17.880 --> 00:35:21.599
friends, as you might guess,
and I think they think that's the case,

441
00:35:21.760 --> 00:35:23.199
and they think that they would get
a moderate who might help them,

442
00:35:23.880 --> 00:35:30.119
you know when it comes to international
support, but also a moderate who has

443
00:35:30.679 --> 00:35:34.360
impeccable credentials as a military leader,
which is what they need right now,

444
00:35:34.440 --> 00:35:37.400
because you know, the one thing
we haven't talked about yet is potential for

445
00:35:37.480 --> 00:35:44.599
a northern front here right which could
could dramatically overwhelm what's happening in Gaza right

446
00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:50.400
now. It could be super substantial
and really catastrophic to the region. So

447
00:35:50.519 --> 00:35:53.840
I think they're in the and I
think a majority of that really population actually

448
00:35:53.880 --> 00:36:00.440
support that, So it's it's possible
that it could happen. Supporting that war

449
00:36:00.519 --> 00:36:04.519
in the north, I mean,
yeah, the ground incursion to essentially push

450
00:36:04.719 --> 00:36:10.480
Hesbela back to the the UN resolution
seventeen oh the Tanny River, you know.

451
00:36:10.559 --> 00:36:15.440
I mean, it's almost as though
it's a FATA complete and both sides

452
00:36:15.480 --> 00:36:20.199
could argue that they're already at war, you know. I mean I was

453
00:36:20.719 --> 00:36:25.280
up in the north last week,
I think it was Thursday, and there

454
00:36:25.320 --> 00:36:30.480
was something like two hundred rockets came
across it was Wednesday or Thursday, drones

455
00:36:30.519 --> 00:36:34.960
and you could see that, I
mean, the fires every you can see

456
00:36:35.000 --> 00:36:38.719
the smoke at least a lot of
the fires all along, and sixty thousand

457
00:36:38.800 --> 00:36:45.280
people evacuated, you know, on
the Israeli side, and then Hezbolla has

458
00:36:45.440 --> 00:36:52.519
lost nine or ten brigade commander level
guys, and then most recently Nasa not

459
00:36:52.400 --> 00:36:58.679
you know, no relation to to
Gamal Nasa, but you know, they're

460
00:36:58.719 --> 00:37:01.800
losing some brigadier leadership, and now
they're losing some of their guys who are

461
00:37:01.800 --> 00:37:07.360
there at the beginning right right,
you know, the old guy from the

462
00:37:07.400 --> 00:37:09.559
early eighties, and there's only about
four or five of them left, along

463
00:37:09.599 --> 00:37:16.000
with Nazrala. So it looks almost
as though you know that the Israeli government

464
00:37:16.119 --> 00:37:22.280
is pushing, you know, they
are. They on one perception, they're

465
00:37:22.320 --> 00:37:25.840
doing this to antagonize the push has
ballowed at the point of war. But

466
00:37:27.079 --> 00:37:30.519
other people are saying within the IDF, hey look at the guys we're killing

467
00:37:30.079 --> 00:37:34.880
until Nasa. These are all brigade
level guys. They're not top level guys.

468
00:37:34.960 --> 00:37:37.840
It's still we're still playing within the
rules of the game. Right,

469
00:37:38.159 --> 00:37:40.679
that's right. So what do you
I mean do you think Nazrala, what

470
00:37:40.760 --> 00:37:46.719
do you think I mean? I'm
not I'm not suggesting that you're in Nazrula

471
00:37:46.719 --> 00:37:51.440
whisper, although that was your nickname. What do you think? What do

472
00:37:51.519 --> 00:37:52.960
you think he's what do you think
he's thinking? Now? What do you

473
00:37:53.000 --> 00:37:58.199
think he wants? You know?
I mean, I think there's probably a

474
00:37:58.239 --> 00:38:01.360
lot. Did he take new account? He's thinking? Is Iron really going

475
00:38:01.400 --> 00:38:05.039
to back me if this actually kicks
off? Right? Because you know they're

476
00:38:05.079 --> 00:38:09.440
they're like the original proxy group and
you know apparently they're gold Star. But

477
00:38:09.519 --> 00:38:13.440
it's pretty clear to me that,
I mean, we just saw some pretty

478
00:38:14.199 --> 00:38:17.599
interesting shifts and elections in Iran,
right, I don't know, I totally

479
00:38:17.639 --> 00:38:22.840
expected that. Yeah, but yeah, moder it in as the president.

480
00:38:23.360 --> 00:38:27.800
Yeah. Right? So and then
if you're in Israla, you're thinking,

481
00:38:28.559 --> 00:38:31.159
Okay, did I pick a fight
with the biggest dude on the block,

482
00:38:31.280 --> 00:38:35.920
the block being the Middle East?
And then my big brother has decided that

483
00:38:36.639 --> 00:38:38.519
he is not going to come to
my support. I mean, there's there's

484
00:38:38.639 --> 00:38:44.400
that, right, yes, And
you know they're making all the rhetoric that

485
00:38:44.760 --> 00:38:49.079
there's no rules of engagement, which
means they're going to target uh, the

486
00:38:49.159 --> 00:38:52.360
Israeli civilian population, which they have
been the entire time. So no news

487
00:38:52.440 --> 00:38:58.599
flash. D I do think the
US is doing everything we can to mitigate

488
00:38:58.679 --> 00:39:01.519
this from happening. Part of that
is the cease Far and Gaza, right,

489
00:39:01.559 --> 00:39:05.960
So if there's a cease Far and
Gaza, it'll probably reduce the tensions

490
00:39:06.159 --> 00:39:10.920
with Hesbel out there. They say
so that it will. And then it

491
00:39:12.079 --> 00:39:15.320
really does come down to whether the
Israeli population believes it's safe enough to go

492
00:39:15.440 --> 00:39:21.039
back, right, Because I think
you said it was around sixty thousand people.

493
00:39:21.079 --> 00:39:25.480
I think that's right that are displaced, and that doesn't necessarily mean Hesbel

494
00:39:25.559 --> 00:39:29.320
has to be pushed back to the
Latani. It all depends on what they're

495
00:39:29.480 --> 00:39:32.320
doing, right, So if they're
not launching rockets and missiles non stop,

496
00:39:32.440 --> 00:39:37.440
then you know, and the Israeli
population believes that they won't start, then

497
00:39:37.480 --> 00:39:42.079
they would be able to go back. If that's the case, this could

498
00:39:42.159 --> 00:39:46.400
be I think avoided. If it's
not, then I think from the Israeli

499
00:39:46.480 --> 00:39:50.639
perspective, they're eventually going to have
to bite the bullet and do some kind

500
00:39:50.679 --> 00:39:57.159
of ground incursion and that would be
bloody ugly for the IDF of course,

501
00:39:58.320 --> 00:40:00.480
and Forsbel, of course, but
it also could really I mean, the

502
00:40:00.519 --> 00:40:05.199
precision got ammunitions. You hear different
stats. But to say the one hundred

503
00:40:05.199 --> 00:40:09.199
and fifty thousand rockets and missiles stats
is accurate, I mean I saw one

504
00:40:10.559 --> 00:40:20.239
I think pretty accurate report that the
hesblog could launch three thousand mostly precision guys

505
00:40:20.360 --> 00:40:25.840
mission missiles a day for thirty days. Right. I don't know any air

506
00:40:25.920 --> 00:40:31.760
defense system that could withstand that iron
So the US would likely have to get

507
00:40:31.840 --> 00:40:38.599
involved militarily at least to mitigate these
threats from the air as soon as that

508
00:40:38.760 --> 00:40:45.039
happens. And this is now more
than just a conflict between Israel and Hesbelo.

509
00:40:45.159 --> 00:40:52.639
It could be between Israel, the
United States, hesbela Ran and Iran's

510
00:40:52.079 --> 00:40:57.320
you know, could launch all sorts
of barrages like they already have. And

511
00:40:57.559 --> 00:41:02.480
you know you're seeing you know,
Proxy four is from Pakistan, Afghanistan or

512
00:41:02.519 --> 00:41:07.639
rock Syria, Yemen all saying they're
gonna sigh. I don't know what that

513
00:41:07.760 --> 00:41:10.920
means necessarily, but I guess that
they needed more fighters they could surge there.

514
00:41:12.599 --> 00:41:15.480
Uh, it would be much more
significant. And has book claims they

515
00:41:15.519 --> 00:41:19.599
have one hundred thousand fighters, right, so even if that's exaggerated, it's

516
00:41:19.599 --> 00:41:22.400
certainly much more than a mas at, So it's it would be it would

517
00:41:22.480 --> 00:41:28.440
dwarf the current conflict in Gaza.
Uh and it would just add to an

518
00:41:28.559 --> 00:41:32.000
incredibly tense situation in which, you
know, Israel could feel like it's completely

519
00:41:32.079 --> 00:41:37.840
up against the ropes at a time
when Iran's starts racing toward a getting a

520
00:41:37.920 --> 00:41:42.239
nuclear weapon. So, you know, nothing, nothing that anybody wants to

521
00:41:42.280 --> 00:41:46.280
see in the Middle East. And
you mentioned the rockets and missiles, which

522
00:41:46.360 --> 00:41:52.400
has being a problem set that we've
all been focused on. Uh No.

523
00:41:52.800 --> 00:41:59.239
I mean, I'm sorry that was
very u a lazy collective clicktive now,

524
00:41:59.559 --> 00:42:02.000
but I mean as far as in
the special operations community, and you remember,

525
00:42:02.320 --> 00:42:07.320
I mean generally within DoD focused on
his balla, but mostly in the

526
00:42:07.599 --> 00:42:14.199
soft community. But now it's not
just the rockets and missiles, it's the

527
00:42:14.360 --> 00:42:22.039
drones. And I was just up
in Northern Command on Friday talking to They've

528
00:42:22.079 --> 00:42:25.000
got a drone command within Northern Command
headed by a Ukrainian guy. I mean

529
00:42:25.239 --> 00:42:31.519
he's Ukrainian Israeli, but he was
exo a National Guard unit out in Ukraine.

530
00:42:31.519 --> 00:42:36.599
Anyway, he's a drone expert.
He's bringing a lot of the TTPs

531
00:42:36.679 --> 00:42:42.639
from Ukraine in and his concern is
this number one and he was very even

532
00:42:42.760 --> 00:42:45.039
in an official interview, you know, on a base he's saying, we're

533
00:42:45.119 --> 00:42:49.239
just not getting resourced. I need
more guys, I need this. His

534
00:42:49.400 --> 00:42:53.719
Boller operators are really really good and
they're able to operate their drones offline now,

535
00:42:54.119 --> 00:42:59.360
so our GPS jamming that's no good. And they as you know,

536
00:43:00.079 --> 00:43:05.119
rated as far south as south of
hyper and not just you know, significant

537
00:43:05.239 --> 00:43:10.840
size rone, so that that huge
is a huge concern, just layered on

538
00:43:12.280 --> 00:43:19.760
top of everything else. Two and
the Israelis are behind. It's interesting because

539
00:43:19.800 --> 00:43:24.119
they're so far ahead in areas of
sophistication and you know, we talk about

540
00:43:24.960 --> 00:43:29.960
well they you know, qualitative military
edge, and yet here in a very

541
00:43:30.440 --> 00:43:36.360
key area they as the United States
are struggling with a short range air defense

542
00:43:36.719 --> 00:43:40.199
issue and are looking to be overwhelmed. Yes, and if you have a

543
00:43:40.360 --> 00:43:45.599
chance. Ohen West actually has an
article on the Wall Street Journal about AI

544
00:43:45.039 --> 00:43:50.719
and drowns. I read that.
Yeah, really good. I do think

545
00:43:50.760 --> 00:43:52.599
to your point, Andy, like, one of the things that we can

546
00:43:52.679 --> 00:44:00.760
get out of having our folks in
places like Ukraine working at leads in support

547
00:44:01.039 --> 00:44:07.639
of them is to take the new
modern cutting edge technology knowledge to be able

548
00:44:07.639 --> 00:44:15.840
to export it to other partners,
right, yea, that is critical and

549
00:44:15.920 --> 00:44:22.639
this is a great example to provide
drones that are fairly sophisticated but expendable,

550
00:44:22.400 --> 00:44:27.480
blue collar drones, right, you
know that, uh, that we can

551
00:44:27.559 --> 00:44:34.000
provide and large enough quantities instead of
these thirty million dollar platforms you know,

552
00:44:34.079 --> 00:44:37.639
which we can't give to anyone and
we can't even fly when there's an essay

553
00:44:37.719 --> 00:44:40.519
six. Right, that's right,
right. Necessity is the mother of invention,

554
00:44:40.679 --> 00:44:45.880
right aristotal I think so if you
look at like who is the underdog

555
00:44:45.960 --> 00:44:47.480
in each one of those conflicts,
they tend to look for what you're talking

556
00:44:47.519 --> 00:44:53.760
about, really inexpensive but highly innovative
means to be able to take it to

557
00:44:53.800 --> 00:44:59.639
the enemy. So in it's the
ukraineents, right, they're they're killing you

558
00:44:59.719 --> 00:45:07.519
know, multi million dollar tanks et
cetera with relatively inexpensive you know, manipulated

559
00:45:07.599 --> 00:45:14.119
with a commercial drone and you know
RPG warhead and what have you. And

560
00:45:14.239 --> 00:45:17.559
that is what Hesbal is going to
do to Israel. Right, So we

561
00:45:17.679 --> 00:45:22.719
can take what we learn from being
with the Ukrainians to do that on what

562
00:45:22.840 --> 00:45:27.480
the vulnerabilities of those types of things
are. So I think that's it's it's

563
00:45:27.719 --> 00:45:30.079
it's it is a reason. One
of the reasons, there's many, but

564
00:45:30.119 --> 00:45:31.519
one of the reasons. We have
a soakon right, or in my case,

565
00:45:31.559 --> 00:45:37.039
a special activity center that that isn't
geographically tied anywhere. So we go

566
00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:40.559
everywhere. We support partners, and
we take what we learned or what they

567
00:45:40.719 --> 00:45:45.920
learned from there to our own benefit, to the other, to other partners

568
00:45:45.960 --> 00:45:49.000
that we'd like to see, you
know, succeed, which of course should

569
00:45:49.000 --> 00:45:52.039
be all our partners. That's the
whole point analysis. I'd love to see

570
00:45:52.079 --> 00:45:59.239
that happen in a more coherent fashion. You know, it's kind of forget

571
00:45:59.280 --> 00:46:04.440
I even said that that was an
MPT. Well, we don't even gather

572
00:46:04.559 --> 00:46:08.760
our own lessons learned. But yes, yeah, it's very interesting to see

573
00:46:08.840 --> 00:46:15.039
how tactics have migrated. Ukrainian tactics
have migrated, but also Russian tactics have

574
00:46:15.119 --> 00:46:21.320
migrated to Hisboala because the Russians have
become a course, very proficient with fpvs,

575
00:46:21.920 --> 00:46:25.039
which are the real front now.
And interestingly enough, you know the

576
00:46:25.159 --> 00:46:34.079
Ukrainians talking about training FPV operators and
putting them through you know, an initial

577
00:46:34.199 --> 00:46:38.039
selection. I mean, it's making
me think this really is going to be

578
00:46:38.119 --> 00:46:45.480
a very important MOS of the future, right an FPV pilot. I mean,

579
00:46:45.559 --> 00:46:49.559
those guys are going to be gold. I hope we're training them.

580
00:46:49.639 --> 00:46:52.719
I hope we're recruiting them right now. But the Israelis have started. His

581
00:46:52.920 --> 00:46:57.800
BOLLA is already way ahead, and
of course the Russians in Ukrainians, it's

582
00:46:57.840 --> 00:47:04.440
a major it's an industry down and
down to the down to that toss organization

583
00:47:04.599 --> 00:47:07.280
at the squad level. Now they
have four drone operators in every squad,

584
00:47:07.440 --> 00:47:12.800
just the way we have, you
know whatever, small kinna and two or

585
00:47:12.840 --> 00:47:19.679
three things. That's right, absolutely, so we'll see what I mean,

586
00:47:19.960 --> 00:47:25.719
they're pushing hard for the csfire right
now. I think the US does wanted

587
00:47:25.760 --> 00:47:31.840
more than both parties involved. But
if it does work for Israel, then

588
00:47:32.000 --> 00:47:37.039
I think we'll see at least the
first phase of it, which would be

589
00:47:37.320 --> 00:47:44.000
the hostages, females, non soldier
females and the elderly, and I think

590
00:47:44.039 --> 00:47:49.719
the injured will come out first.
The IDF will draw from populated centers.

591
00:47:50.960 --> 00:47:53.039
They're already moving into phase three,
so it seems like they'd be doing that

592
00:47:53.079 --> 00:47:58.840
anyway. And then of course,
from the humanitarians perspective, they would be

593
00:47:58.960 --> 00:48:04.920
more aid coming, which is super
important because right now the most if all,

594
00:48:05.000 --> 00:48:10.119
of the two point two million population
is in some form of acute food

595
00:48:10.199 --> 00:48:16.639
insecurity and in the north borderline famine, and one of the biggest problems remains

596
00:48:16.880 --> 00:48:23.800
distribution right within within the strip makers
as much as as much as bottlenecks on

597
00:48:23.920 --> 00:48:28.920
passage. The real issue is once
it gets in, ensuring it goes to

598
00:48:28.960 --> 00:48:32.480
where it's supposed to go. That's
right, because whether it comes in from

599
00:48:32.519 --> 00:48:39.119
the maritime means or the ground crossings, when the trucks start moving, they

600
00:48:39.280 --> 00:48:44.679
often don't get to the further away
communities because every community has to go through

601
00:48:44.800 --> 00:48:49.400
is also starving, right, So
it's it's they're getting right. It's a

602
00:48:49.440 --> 00:48:52.360
problem all across the board. But
the easiest way, none of it's easy,

603
00:48:52.400 --> 00:48:55.599
and we take that back. The
best way to solve that is to

604
00:48:55.760 --> 00:49:00.719
flood the zone with aid to so
that you know, pair can see that,

605
00:49:00.960 --> 00:49:02.320
Okay, there's a lot of food
coming in. It's being stored at

606
00:49:02.320 --> 00:49:06.599
these facilities. I'm going to be
able to feed my kids tomorrow, so

607
00:49:06.679 --> 00:49:09.079
I'm not going to have to bum
bum rush a speeding truck, right,

608
00:49:09.679 --> 00:49:15.320
That's what I think is needed there, and it needs to come from every

609
00:49:15.400 --> 00:49:19.280
direction, you know, ground,
eri time and to a certain extent air

610
00:49:19.360 --> 00:49:23.159
although that's really expensive, but it's
there's some places up there where there is

611
00:49:23.159 --> 00:49:29.880
the only way to reach it,
right. So that's that's what's going on

612
00:49:30.079 --> 00:49:34.199
right now with that, and I
certainly hope that if there is a ceasefire,

613
00:49:34.360 --> 00:49:39.559
that there is an opportunity to flood
the zone with food and really critical

614
00:49:39.639 --> 00:49:46.280
medicine, because the Moss is obviously
a despot, horrible terrorist organization, but

615
00:49:46.480 --> 00:49:52.440
you know, little Kitchen Gaza deserve
to be treated with dignity, respect and

616
00:49:52.559 --> 00:50:00.920
certainly get all the things they need
for life sustainment. And as every civilian,

617
00:50:00.960 --> 00:50:05.039
they're not just the kids, but
they are not. They shouldn't be

618
00:50:05.119 --> 00:50:07.599
part of them the bargain when it
comes to this stuff. So if this

619
00:50:08.079 --> 00:50:13.840
ceasefire is implemented and it holds,
let's just say a month, two months,

620
00:50:14.559 --> 00:50:19.559
but it's things start heating up in
the north with Hesbela and all eyes

621
00:50:19.679 --> 00:50:22.960
start turning north. Do you do
you do you put it past the Moss

622
00:50:23.320 --> 00:50:28.639
to stick with that seaspire or take
full advantage of the fact that everything is

623
00:50:28.719 --> 00:50:31.280
turned north. That's a good question. Jason, because if you think about

624
00:50:31.320 --> 00:50:36.079
it, I mean, how many
people really think that Hamas is going to

625
00:50:36.320 --> 00:50:39.119
have a ceasefire forever? Because I
mean their terrorist organization and their primary mission

626
00:50:39.199 --> 00:50:43.280
is to destroy Israel. So if
you say we're never going to fight Israel,

627
00:50:43.320 --> 00:50:45.679
and I'm like, what's the perfect
point? And I hope they do.

628
00:50:45.840 --> 00:50:47.519
I hope they do. Let's all
hope they do. The other part

629
00:50:47.599 --> 00:50:52.559
to that, and the point I
think of your question is if if the

630
00:50:52.639 --> 00:50:58.400
IDEF starts tracking Hesbel Hesbal is going
to be like, hey, guys,

631
00:50:58.719 --> 00:51:02.320
you need to create something down and
the down in Gaza to kind of distract

632
00:51:02.559 --> 00:51:07.280
or at least add to the plate
of the IDF. If you hold the

633
00:51:07.360 --> 00:51:14.440
seasfire and they're allowed to basically steak
a knee in Gaza and just focused on

634
00:51:14.559 --> 00:51:20.280
Hezbola, then I think Hesbela will
expect Hamas to do something and that maybe

635
00:51:20.360 --> 00:51:23.079
that that actually breaks the ceasefire.
I don't know. Hopefully that's not the

636
00:51:23.159 --> 00:51:25.840
case, but I think there'll be
a lot of pressure, and it might

637
00:51:25.880 --> 00:51:30.960
be pressure exerted by or On too, and also that I guess, sorry,

638
00:51:30.039 --> 00:51:35.599
the offset offshoot question would be if
that does happen, can the idea

639
00:51:35.679 --> 00:51:38.559
sustain that, you know, operations
in the north and then having to turn

640
00:51:38.639 --> 00:51:45.559
right back south again. Good question. Right, it's not just the idef

641
00:51:45.639 --> 00:51:50.039
and its current capacity. But they
rely heavily like we do when they go

642
00:51:50.119 --> 00:51:53.119
to war on reserves, right,
I think. And you just got back

643
00:51:53.159 --> 00:51:57.519
there. Half the bartenders you talked
to over there just got back from Coza,

644
00:51:57.920 --> 00:52:01.920
right. So it's they're just and
it's an incredibly resilient culture in the

645
00:52:02.000 --> 00:52:07.280
sense that you know, it's life
is normal in most parts of Tel Aviv

646
00:52:07.360 --> 00:52:12.039
and half those guys just got back
from in gals just got back from from

647
00:52:12.119 --> 00:52:15.559
God. But that's very difficult to
sustain. It has a huge impact on

648
00:52:15.679 --> 00:52:21.760
their economy, on all these young
people's you know, lives. It's one

649
00:52:21.800 --> 00:52:23.679
thing to be called up and go
spend six months, and then to be

650
00:52:23.760 --> 00:52:29.119
called up again and again and again. It's very disruptive. Right. They

651
00:52:29.199 --> 00:52:34.960
have mandatory service and a lot of
them had already done it. So it's

652
00:52:35.199 --> 00:52:39.039
it's both a capacity, like straight
out capacity militarily, but it's also political

653
00:52:39.079 --> 00:52:43.280
because it's a democracy. Eventually people
be like, we have to go back

654
00:52:43.320 --> 00:52:45.320
to our lives, and in the
business people are like, we have to

655
00:52:45.760 --> 00:52:49.679
get these people back to work.
I'm just going to say, I was

656
00:52:49.800 --> 00:52:52.760
just thinking, like, what if
that eighteen or that nineteen twenty year old

657
00:52:52.840 --> 00:52:55.599
kids who's done two pumps, you
know, two tours up in the north

658
00:52:55.719 --> 00:52:59.920
end in the south. What if
he says, I'm not going I've done,

659
00:53:00.360 --> 00:53:05.239
not knowing what happens, right,
and the irony there not to get

660
00:53:05.320 --> 00:53:07.679
two twelve into their politics or this
change we talked about. It is a

661
00:53:07.760 --> 00:53:14.119
lot of these far right folks that
quite frankly are pushing for no cease fire

662
00:53:14.239 --> 00:53:19.559
and new fronts are the very people
that aren't required to serve right. So

663
00:53:20.119 --> 00:53:22.039
you know from that eighteen nineteen year
old kids just wants to go be a

664
00:53:22.119 --> 00:53:27.400
music major at the University of Tel
Aviv or something. This is starting to

665
00:53:27.400 --> 00:53:30.960
get frustrating. And I don't say
that as just a guess. I've talked

666
00:53:30.960 --> 00:53:35.960
to them, right, but I'm
there and they fully support their country.

667
00:53:36.000 --> 00:53:39.679
Obviously, I all want their hostages
back, as everybody should, but they're

668
00:53:39.840 --> 00:53:45.639
starting to see this as an uneven
obligation. I think, not not to

669
00:53:45.679 --> 00:53:49.280
speak for every one of them,
but that's a consistent theme. They didn't

670
00:53:49.360 --> 00:53:52.639
seem to have any problems serving but
if this gets drug out, they're going

671
00:53:52.679 --> 00:53:58.280
to want to see a lot more
people serving and not just them. Yeah,

672
00:54:00.840 --> 00:54:02.480
Mick, tell us where we can
find you. Tell us about the

673
00:54:02.480 --> 00:54:07.880
Lobo Institute everything you guys are working
on. Oh yeah, So the Lobo

674
00:54:07.960 --> 00:54:15.239
Institute is essentially an association with people
that have worked in the conflicts sphere,

675
00:54:15.719 --> 00:54:19.639
from the military, from the intelligence, but also from you know, the

676
00:54:19.760 --> 00:54:24.079
U N and from the Peace Corps
to Edgio's and we've done things like we've

677
00:54:24.119 --> 00:54:28.400
worked for the UN and Yemen.
We've for the State Department on a manditarian

678
00:54:28.480 --> 00:54:34.760
issue in Afghanistan. We're doing this
Humanitarian Corps or for a group called fog

679
00:54:34.840 --> 00:54:37.360
BO. We do a lot of
those type of things. And that's that's

680
00:54:37.519 --> 00:54:43.119
And we also have an NGO that
deals with the use of ending the use

681
00:54:43.159 --> 00:54:46.159
of children as soldiers and we just
had a we had a documentary on that.

682
00:54:46.920 --> 00:54:50.199
I should go find the book and
do a shameless plug, but I

683
00:54:50.239 --> 00:54:54.679
don't have it here. It's there. That was an author here in Montana,

684
00:54:55.440 --> 00:55:00.800
a great author wrote a book on
it. And it's helping funder NGO,

685
00:55:00.840 --> 00:55:02.960
which is called in Old Soldier.
So that's I mean, in a

686
00:55:04.039 --> 00:55:08.360
nutshell and we do task the training
which keeps us engaged with socom up here

687
00:55:08.440 --> 00:55:12.519
in Montana, which is, I
have to say, one of the most

688
00:55:12.599 --> 00:55:15.000
fun things we do. And as
you guys might notice, it seems like

689
00:55:15.079 --> 00:55:21.519
those guys just keep getting younger and
younger. So we do. We're across

690
00:55:21.559 --> 00:55:27.320
the board, but we primarily focus
on humanitarian issues and conflict. Sounds great.

691
00:55:27.400 --> 00:55:30.239
Yeah, I'm gonna throw the link
in the description for the Lobo Institute

692
00:55:30.559 --> 00:55:37.840
excellent boys. Anything else? Andy, Oh, that's as always spak Brady,

693
00:55:37.880 --> 00:55:43.440
having you on Mick and chatting with
all of you guys. Don't forget

694
00:55:43.920 --> 00:55:47.119
to check out the Lobo Institute obviously. Also check out our Patreon, Patreon,

695
00:55:47.159 --> 00:55:50.239
dot com, Slash the team house, help Sport, the show,

696
00:55:50.840 --> 00:55:54.960
Andy Milburn, Colonel Andy Milburn,
his substack, his Twitter. All the

697
00:55:55.000 --> 00:55:59.000
links are into the description, so
check them out there. Thank you guys,

698
00:55:59.559 --> 00:56:01.679
by mine appreciate it. And his
book of course, his book is

699
00:56:01.679 --> 00:56:06.880
great. Yeah, thanks everyone,
Thanks again. Mick, And well maybe

700
00:56:06.960 --> 00:56:12.480
we'll do an eyes On reunion but
coming up on our what is it now?

701
00:56:12.559 --> 00:56:16.960
Eight months? Seven months? The
reunion and Whitefish. Yeah, that'd

702
00:56:17.000 --> 00:56:22.159
be great. They just plan here. Uh, let me talk to the

703
00:56:22.239 --> 00:56:27.159
Boss de Tacos, and he's trying
to spend our travel budget. He's doing

704
00:56:27.519 --> 00:56:30.079
He's an asshole, but I may
be able. We could do a live

705
00:56:30.320 --> 00:56:36.119
the f W man. Yeah,
probably know this place is packed full of

706
00:56:36.239 --> 00:56:43.440
veterans, right, especially some folks
like if there's not you probably want to

707
00:56:43.480 --> 00:56:49.199
get the white Fish on Nicer than
POxy New York. Okay, right,

708
00:56:51.000 --> 00:56:52.360
all right, thanks guys,

