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The inverted yield curve is basically there's
a seventy five basis points difference between say

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a two year and a ten year
treasury And the only reason why someone would

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lock their money up for ten years
at three quarters of four percent lower than

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they can get for two years is
because they believe that in two years they

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won't even be able to get what
they can get for ten years. Today,

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thanks for listening to Carry Lutz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's

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00:00:26,359 --> 00:00:31,199
trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survival Network dot com.

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Financial Survival Network now more than ever, and welcome. You are listening to

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watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm
your host, Carry Lutz. Well,

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Anthony Sakura is with us. We're
going to be talking about higher dividend yields,

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how you make money even when the
economy is going to hell in a

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handbasket. Well one of these things. So hey, we're going to get

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onto it. If you've got a
question or comment, or if something you

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want me to cover, I guess
you want me to have on send an

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email to khl at kryloves dot com. Make sure you whatever platform you're on,

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you like, share and subscribe.
The show. It really helps the

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show out a lot. Anthony,
it's great to have you back. So

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where's the economy? Inverted yield curve? Feds not raising rates inflation looks like

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it's taking a breather. But is
it just a temporary breather or is are

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we going to see rices and therefore
rates go up in the not too distant

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future. What's your take on all
of it? Gary, Yeah, great

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to be here. Thanks for having
me back. Love the show, Love

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being on your show. I think
that the Federal Reserve not raising rates was

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the right move. Inflation, as
you know, as a lagging indicator that

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oftentimes takes six months to react to
whatever the Federal Reserve does on you know,

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inflation, and may have twenty twenty
two at high I believe it was

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nine point one percent if I'm correct. Now inflation is down in the mid

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threes. Their target is two percent, So we've made a lot of progress

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at this point, but we haven't
made as much progress as they would have

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hold. I think that really hinges
around the labor market at this point.

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The labor market is starting to soften. If we were having this conversation in

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December twenty two, if my memory
serves me right carry I think we were

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almost at two jobs for every worker
available. I think it was one point

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nine if I remember correctly. Now
I think own to like one point seven.

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So the fact is that there's a
lot that there it's come down,

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there are less jobs per worker.
That number is going to need to come

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down. A lot of people think
that the unemployment rate, which is still

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at record lows, that that needs
to get up into six or seven percent

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in order for inflation to come down. I don't know that that's necessarily the

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case, although I believe probably six
percent. But this is the recession that's

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never happened at this point. And
you know, it used to be six

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eight months ago. A year ago, we were talking about a recession,

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whether it's going to be a soft
landing or hard landing. Now they're talking

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about no landing. You know,
is it possible that we get no recession

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at all? And I think that
that is possible for the first time,

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but I don't think it's likely.
I think there is going to be a

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recession around the corner. I think
the inverted yield curve is telling us that

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probably sometime in twenty twenty four.
I think we do have to still be

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careful, all right. Imagine if
they threw a recession and nobody came right.

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Yeah, And it's interesting that you
know that's the possibility as well too.

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But the inverted yild curve is telling
us a different story. The inverted

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yield curve is basically there's a seventy
five basis points different between say a two

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year and a ten year treasury.
And the only reason why someone would lock

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their money up for ten years at
three quarters of a percent lower than what

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they can get for two years is
because they believe that in two years they

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won't even be able to get what
they can get for ten years today.

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And when you look at the economists
across the country, you look at the

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experts across the country, you look
at the economical data that's going on that's

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out there, everything points to the
fact that the Federal Reserve is going to

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lower interest rates in twenty twenty four. The only reason they would do that

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is if we have a recession,
if inflation does come down and we now

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need to start stimulating the economies.
I do think that, you know,

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odds of a recession in twenty four
are still pretty high, and I think

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you need to treat that as such
when you're trying to figure out what to

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do with your own portfolio. All
right, so what are you telling your

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clients to do now at this point? Anthony? Yeah, interestingly enough,

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you know, I want my clients
to be in a position to win no

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matter what. And that's a phrase
that's kind of caught on. It's a

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phrase that I've been using recently because
Yahoo Finances. When I was interviewed on

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their live TV recently, they asked
me the same question. In this economical

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environment, with all this uncertainty and
things going on with China and Russia becoming

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friends, and wars and inflation and
interest rates and so, how do we

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invest in this environment? And my
answer to them is, if you are

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invested right, you should be able
to win no matter what. And I

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think that the way to do that
is to really focus on dividend paying stocks

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because if things go well, then
those stocks are still going to grow in

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value, and your dividends are just
going to be the icing on the cake.

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If things don't go well, then
the dividends could be the answer to

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cancer. If you will, the
dividends are going to be the one thing

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that you can continue to dollar cost
average in and essentially you're getting paid to

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wait. And so I think dividends
no matter what phase of life you're in,

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whether you're in the accumulation phase of
life or the principal protection phase of

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life, or the distribution phase of
life. I think this next decade,

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you know, you need to focus
on dividends in case things are flat,

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like a lot of experts are predicting. Okay, so dividends are important.

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I think we agree on that.
But if we get like a major recession,

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presumably the market's going to get hit
as well. Right, do we

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think the stock market's going to go
down? What do you think it's going

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to go down? If the recession
magically appears. Yeah, So if we

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have a recession, I mean,
certainly the market's going to get hit.

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And that's the time that you are
really going to value dividend stock more than

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anything else, because now you have
the ability to get those dividends and the

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dollar cost average and then back in
and to reinvest. And you know,

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interestingly enough, if you have growth
stocks and you know, we have a

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ten year time period of you know, crashes and recoveries and crashes and recoveries

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very much like the first ten years
of this decade. Well, if you

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have a growth stock that doesn't pay
dividends, you just have a big blah.

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You know, ten years from now, your growth stocks are going to

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be worth the same as they are
now. Whereas if you're getting dividends,

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you can dollar cost average those dividends
back in, and if the market goes

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down and your dollar cost averaging your
dividends back in, that actually helps you.

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It doesn't hurt you because you get
to buy more of the stage stocks

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at a lower price. So it's
a very interesting dynamic. But you're not

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going to get dividends through growth stock. You're gonna get dividends through value stock.

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So the dividends are what's going to
help you be able to write out

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a time period if we do have
a lot of crashes and recoveries, and

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yet at the same time, if
you're in dividend stocks now and the market

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does crash by twenty or thirty or
forty, you know, and I think

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that's possible, then it might be
time to reallocate at some point down the

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road into something that's going to be
more growth oriented. But that's going to

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depend on your phase of life that
you're in. If you're twenty, thirty,

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forty, twenty or thirty years of
retirement, reallocating some more to growth

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may make sense. If you have
ten or less years of retirement and you're

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retired, you probably want to stick
with the value stocks or even sharp your

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portfolio in such a way to where
you have maybe a smaller percentage of your

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portfolio and are living out the income
from other things that are not stock market

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related. All right, So then
question becomes what else should you be holding?

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What else should be in your portfolio
besides besides stocks? How do you

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really really protect against a multitude of
threats. Yeah, so there's all universe

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of options that are are not stock
related that are classified as fixed income.

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And interestingly enough, if you have
twenty or thirty years to retirement, I

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would normally be very fine with you
having eighty or ninety percent of your portfolio

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in equities. I think over a
thirty year time period, the fact is

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you're going to average eight or ten
percent. I'm not sure that there's ever

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been a thirty or forty year time
period in the market where it's ever averaged

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anything less than eight or ten percent. But you have to have a long,

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long, long time to do that, and so a high percentage of

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stocks makes sense. But we're at
a point in time carry where the fixed

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income market has just been hit over
the last couple of years. It's the

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worst fixed income market over the last
two years. I think in forty two

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years, first time you can actually
buy fixed income as a capital appreciation play.

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So if you, even if you're
younger, even if you have thirty

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or forty years, where normally I
would suggest that you you have the bulk

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of your money in stocks, I
think a sixty forty plan right now works,

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not for the reasons that they say
sixty forty is gonna work, you

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know for these last decades where that's
kind of in the standard mantra. I

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think a sixty forty plan works now
for you because if the Federal Reserve lowers

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interest rates, that's gonna cause that
forty percent of your fixed income port boil

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to bound. Not because it's gonna
because fixed income reacts opposite of interest rates.

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Interest rates down, fixed income grows, So you can use it as

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a capital appreciation play. And then
and then potentially when the market is down

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and your fixed income is up,
reallocate out of your fixed income into the

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market, and then you use that
going forward. You know, stay fully

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invested going forward. I don't want
you to trade in and out of the

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market trying to make money that way. But entering the market is totally different

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than trading. I think you're gonna
have a much much better entry point into

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the market than now, and until
then you can use anything in the fixed

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income category to be getting paid while
you wait. On today's environment, you

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should be able to get five or
six percent after fee is pretty easy from

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fixed income investments, and there's a
good likelihood that in the next one to

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two years they will also shoot up
in value. So great double double whammy

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if it works the way that we
think. Okay, so how yield is

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your friend, but you don't want
to take too much risk on yield.

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You don't want to but yield ahead
of everything, right, You got to

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look for some kind of margin of
safety percent. And the biggest mistake that

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I see retirees make, especially when
it comes to chasing hwo yielding socks,

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is they do just that. They're
they're chasing yield, and if all you

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do is look at the yield,
then you might miss the entire underlying story.

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There are companies out there that the
price has dropped, and if you

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know how yield work, when the
price dropt, the yield goes up.

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And if you're an unsophisticated investor and
you're just looking for yield, because you

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know, here Anthony is sicaro on, you know, as saying that you

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got to go find yield, and
you get off for this interviewing. You'll

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find a yield. You're like,
oh, well, that one's paying you

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know, five percent, six percent, seven percent, I'll get on on

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that. Well, the reality is
it might be paying a high yield because

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the price just dropped in value.
And the question is did the price drop

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in value because of just some systemic
drop of what's going on in the markets,

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or did the price drop in value
because the underlying fundamentals of that company

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are not good and you may not
know that. So whereas you know,

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the professionals are trying to make this
determination whether a high yield, there's a

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good value play where you can buy
something with the high yield and get and

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get a company that is under valued. As an un sophisticated investor, you

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might not be getting a value play. You might be getting on board the

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sinking ship, which we often refer
to as a value trap, where all

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of a sudden you buy it for
the high yield and then they cut the

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yield. Then then the price goes
down more, and then now now you're

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on a sinking boat. So you
have to be really careful. You can't

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just chase yields. You have to
look at the fundamentals under the hood too,

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to make sure getting something that's that's
really true value, not something that's

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falling apart very true. Yeah,
you just don't become a yield tour as

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they call them, right. You
need to look past past the yield and

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really look under the hood because a
lot of these cyclicals they pay these huge

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dividends, but it could be right
at the end of the cycle and then

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they're going to take a hitt and
then they'll be cutting their dividends. So

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who needs that? Hey, So
besides dividends and besides looking for yield,

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is there anything else you can do
to help defend your portfolio and your will

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against the potential volatility that seems all
but inevitable. Yeah, I mean leaving

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some in cash right now, it's
probably not a bad idea as well.

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Right, this is the first time
in many years that you can actually earn

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something out cash. But you've got
to be careful if you put your money

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in cash too. We we've talked
to a lot of people that have said

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something like, you know this,
why I put all my money in CDs

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that are earning five percent And they're
excited about the fact that they got a

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one year CD that's earning five percent
or so, and they come to be

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almost thrilled. The challenge, though, is that a lot of people are

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using that short term CD for long
term strategy, and I think that's a

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mistake. The fact is that we
do have an inverted yield curve, and

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if you get five percent now for
one year, you're gonna feel good for

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one year. But what if we
do have that procession. What if the

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Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to where
they were just a couple of years ago

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pre COVID, and all of a
sudden, you're CD matures at five percent

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for that one year, and all
of a sudden, you can you can

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only get less than one We go
back to the tide period where or maybe

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you can only even get too.
Well, that's what I often refer to

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shooting yourself in the foot. If
you have this money set aside, you're

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getting needed in a year for a
large purchase, to put it down on

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real estate, or you know,
college planning for your kids or wedding,

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or if you're gonna need this stuff
and this money and one or two years,

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absolutely short term CDs, give what
you can out, and then when

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the CD of a church you have
access to the money. A great strategy.

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But if this is your long term
retirement plan and you're not going to

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need this money for ten or twenty
or thirty years, regardless of what age

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you are, I wouldn't recommend locking
it up all executing a short term strategy

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for a long term plan. You
can get long term. You can get

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five and six percent today NETA fees
by using fixed income for the long run

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and not just for the short run. So it doesn't mean don't have anything

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for the short run. It doesn't
mean said at all aside having some for

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the short having some for the mid
term, having some for the long run.

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It's probably the best way to do
it in order to maximize your yield.

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But your yield is the only thing
you can count on. For the

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next decade. Yeah, I totally
agree with you. Well, Anthony,

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appreciate you coming on. Tell us
where we find you, how we connect

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00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,840
with you on the whim Yeah,
absolutely so why company has Providence Financial?

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You could search for a Providence Financial
in Woodland Hills, California, and we

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come up everywhere on the first couple
of pages. Our website is Providence Financial,

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Inc. Dot com. And if
anyone watches your show and they are

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interested in getting a blog, I
have a new book, More Life than

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Money, that talks about ten different
mistakes that retires can make in retirement that

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they don't even know they're making.
And if they let me know that they're

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calling in from having watch this show, I'll send them a copy of the

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book apps a little all right,
great, well, we'll put that in

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the show notes along with a link
to your site. If you've got a

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00:15:24,799 --> 00:15:31,279
question for Anthony myself, it's kl
at carry Lutz dot com and make sure

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00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,759
you go to the site Financial Survival
Network dot com and get your free newsletter.

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00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,639
Anthony, always a pleasure. We'll
talk to you a getting real soon.

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Dark. Thank you so much for
having me, God blessed, thanks

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00:15:41,559 --> 00:15:48,960
for listening to Carry lets's Financial Survival
Network your solution to today's trying times.

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00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:54,759
For the latest, go to Financial
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network

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00:15:54,200 --> 00:16:00,919
Now more than ever, the gros
