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There's no question Jerome Powell needs to
reconsider this two percent inflation target that he

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has because, in my opinion,
he is very much losing this battle.

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And and and it's with a lot
of areas that the FED cannot control,

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like the cost of insurance has gone
up so much, the cost of oil,

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and the cost to you know,
escort it by navy, you know

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fleet, you know, as we're
going three thousand new nautical miles around Africa

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because we can't go through the normal
channels because of new terrorist attacks, et

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cetera. So there is a lot
of inflationary data coming to right now,

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and it leaves the FED in a
very very very difficult spot, but one

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that I think that we should ultimately
talk about and have some conversations about because

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the consequences of having that so wrong
could be devastating. You are listening to

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00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:54,479
Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where
you get valuable information you just can't find

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00:00:54,560 --> 00:01:00,640
anywhere else to thrive in today's trying
times. You need the Financial surviv Network

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newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network
now more than ever, And welcome.

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You are listening to and watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Carrie Lutz got some big numbers out. PPI inflation is up quite five percent.

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Experts were surprised. I don't know
who these experts are, David Strazuski,

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but obviously it's nobody I know,
because all the experts I know,

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Uh, we're only surprised it wasn't
higher. Maybe that's what the experts are

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really surprised about. Yeah, you
know, it's it's always great to be

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with you carry you know, when
we talk about PPI, yeah, I

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mean inflation in general. If people
are not noticing right now that the season

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is changed and that a lot of
this economic data that's coming out is beginning

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to deteriorate from this goldie locks everything's
perfect rosy and we're going to have a

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soft landing scenario. So we can't
recognize the seasons change. I think that

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we probably need to examine our eyes. So, yeah, with the PPI

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numbers, you know, that's otherwise
said is the wholesale prices that producers or

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employers pay to create things. And
so when we see inflation there, well,

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then we know that that ultimately comes
to the economy for CPI as well,

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and we'll get a new reading on
that here tomorrow. A couple of

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things to note those that this is
the third consecutive monthly read that is higher

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than the month prior to it.
And why is that a really big deal?

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Well, because this talks about how
sticky inflation ultimately is right now and

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also gives us a forecast for where
we're headed. I think it's really big

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deal to note that if you actually, you know, total up the last

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three months worth of inflation, that
equals one percent at times that by four,

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that gives us a trajectory for four
percent on And this is PPI numbers

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here. The CPI numbers are between
four point four and four point five based

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on how I calculated that. But
that is a much higher inflationary environment than

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where we set right now. So
there's no question Jerome Powell needs to reconsider

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this two percent inflation target that he
has because in my opinion, he is

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very much losing this battle. And
and and it's with a lot of areas

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that the Fed cannot control, like
the cost of insurance has gone up so

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much, the cost of oil,
and and and the cost to you know,

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escort it by navy, you know
fleet, you know, as we're

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going three thousand new nautical miles around
Africa because we can't go through the normal

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channels because of new terrorist attacks,
et cetera. So, uh, there

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is a lot of inflationary data coming
to right now, and it leaves the

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FED in a very very very difficult
spot, but one that I think that

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we should ultimately talk of out and
have some conversations about because the consequences of

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having that so wrong could be devastating. Hey, you know, inflation is

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sticky, like like when the mob
gives somebody a pair of cement shoes,

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right exactly. It's not just sticky. Sticky is like flypaper. Now,

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this is like a monster glue on
steroids. Here, this sticky right right,

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Well and candidly, Carrie, you
know, over the last year we

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actually look at inflation and CPI or
sorry PPI, we're not really seeing,

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you know, significant divergence in the
numbers. You know, CPI has been

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sitting in the threes for over a
year. It's not going down. It's

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been flatlined and just sort of leveled
out here, by the way, as

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we look at oil prices right now
in commodity prices. They've gone up significantly,

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and I believe that they will be, you know, leading the rise

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in the sinflationary environment, therefore making
it more expensive to produce things. You

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know. Another really really big one
that came out here just this last week

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is that both the ISM and the
PMI indicators went negative. And what are

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those They basically speak to the manufacturing
and the servicing sector here in the United

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States, and when they go below
fifty, it's recessionary. And when either

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of them go below fifty, we
tend to have hiccups and challenges in the

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market. Today, both of them
are negative. That's only the second time

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that this has ever happened in the
history. The two previous times were the

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dot com and then two thousand and
eight Great Financial Crisis. So if any

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of these two precursors are indicative of
what the future might look like, or

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if they rhyme, if you will, then I think that we are headed

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for some major challenges here. And
this is going to disrupt the thesis of

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so many today that have just bought
long and they're all in. I mean,

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there's literally more bullish sentiment right now
in the stock market than I guess

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going back to two thousand and twenty
one when everything was rally into the top

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here and we hid all time high. So I think that when these two

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ideas of it's going to be really
great and then only smokes, it's actually

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not catch up, I think that
we could find ourselves in a yeah,

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real surprise moment here that could be
you know, devastating, especially if you're

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nearing or entering retirement, like most
of the families are that we work with.

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Hey, so right, So your
feeling is the Fed's gonna cut,

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but they're not going to cut until
they absolutely one hundred percent have to right,

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absolutely right. So the FED is
at a very difficult spot here,

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and so I think that they're going
to be forced to cut rates in order

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to avoid a banking crisis. And
I say that in all humility because these

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are very serious matters that we're discussing
here. But with inflation being too high

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for the FED to cut rates,
they're going to you know, have to

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be remain higher for longer, just
like they told us that they would,

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even though we were you know,
pretty much guaranteed according to statistics, that

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we were going to get cuts as
of last July so that didn't manifest anyway.

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We're in this higher for longer place
right now. So I think that

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the FED is stuck between preventing a
banking crisis and preventing inslation from getting more

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out of control. Because if they
drop rates right now, basically the top

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twenty percent of Americans as far as
financial goes, they've got money in the

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market, they're doing well, and
they're going to you know, be off

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to the races. We'll see all
new all time highs. That's very inflationary.

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You know. Eighty percent of the
economy though, in my opinion,

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is actually in a recession right now. And you know, I think that

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we probably need to even consider how
are we defining recessions because that would also

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ultimately determine how FED policy and monetary
policy, you know, might be implemented

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in the economy. And I define
it as or I think it should be

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defined as, when the middle class
is doing better or worse for two or

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three quarters at a time, we
can see a trend in a positive or

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a negative direction and ultimately point back
to the why behind it. Right now,

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the why is so many different things. It's actually difficult to even keep

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up on it. But getting back
to that that banking crisis right now.

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You know, when we raise interest
rates the way that the CETA Reserve is

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done, this flips the entire credit
cycle. This it flips the entire market.

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You know, the United States,
all sectors, all families use credit

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to function in daily life. And
so that our banking industry is incredibly important

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in what's taken place here is with
higher interest rates. I'll just even point

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to the numbers that came out from
realtor dot com and that was in twenty

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twenty three, we had lower housing
sales than the worst point in two thousand

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and eight. That's a staggering bit
of information very few people are actually even

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sharing talking about right now. But
you know, the challenge is, you

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know, when you go from a
three percent mortgage environment to seven point five

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two I believe it is today,
you know, people have to come up

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with either forty percent more money as
income or they got to they're going to

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be their purchasing power has been reduced
by forty percent plus in that example.

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And so the housing market is is
certainly, at least across the United States,

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in a very tenuous moment. We've
obviously had a lot of big institutionals

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purchasing over the years. But I
think that I think that that we're seeing

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this crisis begin right now in housing, and no one's going to be able

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to really get loans. These local
regional banks are not going to be remittabolizing

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office space. And if you look
at the office space numbers right now,

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it's it's a staggering number. Just
to not name more facts here, but

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in April, forty three percent of
small businesses in the United States we're unable

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to pay their office lease. Forty
three percent. I can't even imagine that

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over one thousand companies have announced that
they are going to be shutting down locations

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this year. Over one thousand.
Is that a really pro growth economy or

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is this a resassin economy? If
we have eyes to sen, ears to

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hear, we can recognize this is
slowing down. It's slowing down dramatically,

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and I fear that it happens all
at one time in this convergence and we

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will not be prepared for it.
Hey, I just saw today and this

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is in I believe Fort Worth,
Texas. A high rise, forty story

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building went for twelve dollars a foot. Now I'm black thirty Back in nineteen

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ninety eight, I think I was
paying ten dollars a foot in New York

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City. So if I had just
waited, I could have bought that place

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in Fort Worth exactly. And so
there's there's places in our economy that there's

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going to be deflation because of the
interest rate challenges. So those prices have

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to come down because the sellers want
to sell where and the buyers want to

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buy. They don't have a choice, and so they need something for it.

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And so there's always a market that's
being made. And actually, if

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I could just parallel that idea to
one of the concerns that I have today,

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and that is with the fact that
we're printing one trillion dollars every one

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hundred days, and if we understand
how supply and demand work, or inflation

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actually works. Inflation is literally a
phenomenon that's created by central banks as a

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result that they're printing and basically giving
us the tax of least resistance, So

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instead of raising our taxes, they
print more money. Well, so someone's

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got to buy that, and so
Chi they used to be the biggest net

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buyer, they're a seller. Saudi
Arabia used to be a net buyer.

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They're no longer doing that. In
fact, they've just joins the bricks nations

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as of January first, and so
they're no longer excited about the US dollar

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and they're trading now outside of the
US dollar for oil and gas. If

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we look at all of these things
kind of collectively coming together here, this

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is a This is a very concerning
time for us to be looking at at

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the world and where we're headed.
Because in the world of you know,

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having to sell new treasuries, if
we don't have a new buyer's like as

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an example, Japan's a lugger buying, well, what happens to the price

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If there's a buyer, the price
will go higher where the yield has to

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go higher in order for somebody to
say, okay, it's worth it now,

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I'll fix some money, I'll put
some money into into there. And

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instead of being in the stock market
and thinking that everything is going to be

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running so I think that you'll see
people flee back into treasuries right now and

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it'll get bought for a little bit. But I think as we get closer

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to the end of the summer September
to fall October and we've got more expenses

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coming in, more printing going on, more deterioration, and the numbers that

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we could find ourselves in a moment
where we have a very very significant hiccup

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the treasury market. And that's when
you see real challenges because you know,

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we're going to over a trillion dollars
this year the nation in treasury debt,

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the US sax bearers on the hooks
for that. You know, the Fed,

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you know, is going to keep
these rates higher. In act,

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they could go higher even yet uh
if if if what I just shared place

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true. So again, when there's
more supply than than there are buyers,

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the price has to go up.
And that is a devastating idea for bond

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holders today, especially those that are
nearing an entering retirement and don't have time

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to recover from these losses. All
right, well, uh, definitely interesting

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times ahead. Uh so what are
you supposed to do? Bitcoin? Gold,

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silver, diamonds, bananas? What
do you do? You know?

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I think everyone's kind of asking some
questions right now, and that is what

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is real money. I personally believe
that real money is gold and silver.

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Uh and uh, you know,
it takes just more dollars to purchase real

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money gold and silver, uh you
know then than it did just six months

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ago twenty percent more. So I
think that that gold has led to a

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new high, and I think that
it will break thirty four hundred year probably

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even within the next thirty days.
And and once that does, just watch

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because silver is going to rally very
hard and through the end of the year.

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I believe that silver is going to
outperform gold at least two to one.

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I think that oil per barrel you're
looking at one hundred dollars a barrel

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by year end, could be higher
than that, if I can be honest,

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especially with new tensions in the Middle
East, we're obviously seeing you know,

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other metals like copper and steel.
See, you know, very very

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significant upswings right now, and so
you know, more of a commodities based

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approach I think is going to be
valuable. But let's just be clear about

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this as well. Running AI and
everything associated with evs, it's going to

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take a lot of electricity. So
I think that there's some value and some

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utilities as well. And so I
got a couple of thoughts as it relates

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to that and how to play that. But you know, metal liners be

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good as well, given the fact
that their pe ratios are are lower.

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They've been undervalued basically for two decades, and I think that they're about to

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get repriced and really be seen for
the value that they have. We'll see

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if the Biden administration lets them drill
and figure some things out, but you

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know, and until that occurs,
we've got what we got. And in

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the last part there is that you
know, those oil producers, I don't

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think that they will cut their dividends. And so for those that are looking

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for income, the dividends from from
certain oil producers, I think they're going

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to be consistent. And uh,
they've got plenty of margin in there based

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on what the costs are to produce
relative to what uh you know, we're

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paying that for the pump here.
And that's even if there's a slowdown,

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We're we're going to see any of
those ideas I believe continue to grow and

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and continue to take off. So
yeah, there's some thoughts. So all

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right, well, hey, I'm
a huge utility bull. I was a

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big bowl before the AI thing hit
now because I'm figuring, hey, the

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evs AND's that's inexorable trend as more
and more go, we're going to see

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demand increase. What's good about EV's
is that most of them get charged at

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night, least if you're in a
home charger situation. So it's perfect for

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the utility companies. They don't really
need to increase capacity to service this new

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fleet of cars. But AI is
a whole another story. I think the

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AI combined with the megabattery pacts really
going to be where it's at where you

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can store up the electricity, get
it at night. Beauty is the ability

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of those things is to buy energy
at the lowest possible price, Like in

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Florida here just for a home seven
cents of killowot hour regular tag thir thirteen

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cents of killo what hour. So
stock up all that energy and then basically

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use it during the day when you
need it. Actually they use it twenty

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four to seven. But my point
is that's going to be invaluable. It's

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going to help pay for those things
for sure. Yeah, all right,

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David. Always great to have you
on tell us, where do we find

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you on the web? How do
we connect with you? Yeah? So

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our website is my spg dot com. I've also got to a site out

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their offerings and great information, and
that is fed bubble dot com. Fed

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bubble dot com bubble. And you
know, you've got to name the perpetrator

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who causes pop, so that is
the Federal Server. And I think that

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we should be critical of those who
have the ability to affect our lives in

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such significant ways. So there's been
big mistakes that have been made and we

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have absolute bubbles that are amongst us
right now. So you know, just

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hopeful that people can certainly you know, survive in these financial times. And

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so appreciate your time here today and
the opportunity to be on your show,

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as this is a key, key
time to be having the right answers and

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to be understanding what the future is
going to be holding. Couldn't agree with

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you more, Hey, David,
Always appreciate you coming on. Got a

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00:18:15,799 --> 00:18:19,880
question for David or myself. The
email address is kl atcarrieluts dot com.

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You'll find a link to fedbubble dot
com in the show notes to this interview

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00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:29,319
on Financial Survival Network dot com.
We just asked if you visit, please

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00:18:29,319 --> 00:18:32,720
sign up for your free newsletter.
David. Always a pleasure. We'll talk

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00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:36,480
to you again soon. Appreciate you
carry Thanks so much talking said. Thanks

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for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
Network, your solution to today's trying times.

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00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:48,839
For the latest, go to Financial
Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network

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00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:49,799
now more than ever,