Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck up a step,
hit, stay lost. Here's your hosts, Jesse Suver here and Victor
Nuno Fantasy Hockey Live. We're back again to talk about fantasy hockey, dynasty
fantasy hockey, because that's what we do. Jesse Severe here from fan Track,
saying joint by my partner, Victor Nuno. Victor, how you doing.
I'm doing great. I'm looking forward to talking sabers to me, Jesse.
This was one of the most fun teams to watch this year. DJ
Thompson going Ham. He just looks like a giant out there playing with a
bunch of little little kids with how big and tall he is and his twenty
four foot stick. It's just like really fun. And there's a lot of
great players on this team that that's some great success and we need to know
how sustainable all this is and what to expect, and so we've got a
great guest for that and I'm looking forward to that. I'm also I want
to know how you're doing. We all want to know that. To see
Victor kind I think of you as the giant person skating around with the twenty
four footstick of fantasy podcasting. That's how I think of you, throwing around
other podcasts like a rag doll and making our points. And that's what I
appreciate. It's about you. So we're having a good time out here on
Fantasy Hockey Life. I'm doing good. I am. Yeah, it's exciting.
The draft is coming up, it's coming very close, and Stanley Cup
playoff and all that type of thing, and and we're just plugging our way
along, Victor. And this is a long way to make it before we
talk about the Buffalo Sabers. Given where we were in recent years, mostly
Buffalo Sabers fans have been thinking for the past few years about prospects. And
you know what, while they were looking at all those prospects, they should
have been looking at your patreon, Victor, and the things you have going
there. What is it the Sabers fans, But more to the point,
fantasy players, dynasty fantasy players could learn from looking at that particular resource.
Everyone wants to know what to do with their team in the offseason, who
they should buy, who they should sell, which kind of guys should they
package in a trade, and that's the kind of information you can get on
the Fantasy Hockey Life rank spreadsheet, so you can look at how I rank
guys. You can also DM me and you can get access to the Patron
Priority Channel, which is a great brain trust for running by all these moves
that you might be considering. There have been some really interesting ones in there
lately, and sometimes people are ready to pull the trigger on something and then
we're all like, WHOA, don't do that. So it's really good to
get all that kind of help. There's also patron cass and other perks like
the playing in the Tiered Dynasty, which is something that we're going to be
recruiting and coming up pretty soon. If you haven't heard about that or didn't,
we did an whole episode on that, so you can go back and
listen to that one, and it's a patron perk to be able to participate.
So hit us up if you're interested, but definitely check out patreon dot
com slash Fantasy Hockey Life. You will enjoy it. If you decide to
join up with that, you can play against Victor and myself and possibly at
least right now, we've got what four bred times sixteen. I believe no
four times eighteen. So we already have sixty four teams and I think we'll
probably be expanding to at least I hopefully at least one hundred teams or ninety
teams this offseason. Depends on how many more people want to come in.
But it's a lot of fun. And if you are thinking about just stepping
your toe in some of the stuff, but you're like, I don't know
about doing a Patreon just yet, you can start by just coming into our
discord, which is free and there's conversation going all the time. Victor has
given advice to people within the last ten minutes people, and that is not
a usual because there's always discussion going back and forth. And it's not just
Victor in myself. There's a lot of smart people who are in their other
fantasy hockey crazies like yourself, ready to talk the game of dynasty fantasy hockey.
So I would recommend it. Hit Victor of myself up Fantasy Hockey Life
at gmail dot com, gets both of us, or hit us up with
DMS on Twitter. Fan hockey life for me, Victor Nuno twelve for Victor.
We can give you a link. That's how you get into a discord,
so you'd have to say something to us before I had it. But
it's cool people. You'll like it. Trust me. Let's take a break
and talk with more cool people. And those are the cool people and the
cool person ready to talk to us about the Buffalo Sabers. Welcoming back to
the show. Walter Sarowski aka Samber Metrics on Twitter, Walter, how you
doing doing great? Thanks me on Yeah, man, we gotta talk Buffalo
Sabers. We were just talking about. Victor was just talking about this is
a fun team. These Buffalo Sabers are fun and we'll have a lot of
things to talk about here. But there are just a lot of things,
okay. So first of all, Walter, they ended up one point out
of the playoffs. That's an improvement. It might be a heartbreaking improvement to
get that close to the playoffs, but they were tied with the Penguins.
They were one point behind the Stanley Cup finalist Florida Panthers after ending the season
on a nine two and one run Forty two wins was the first time since
two ten, two eleven that Buffalo won the majority of its contests In a
season, they scored the third most goals in the NHL. The bad news
is they allowed the fifth most. They rarely took penalties, second lowest penalty
rate in the league, which was a good thing because they're seventy three penalty
kill was fifth worst. There's an argument the Sabers were about a goalie away
from being a really good team last year. I would find that tough to
refute, and we'll get to the goalies later in this episode. But boy,
as much as you'd like to talk about upside, none of the goalies
coming in last year look like somebody who would expect to hold it down for
a playoff team coming into the year. Now, mind you, there's some
kids we're going to talk about later this episode that'll probably turn that situation around.
But I guess Walters, as you saw all this together, is this
the Buffalo squad, this core coming together that is going to get the city
back to the playoffs and maybe even mess around and went around of Stanley Cup
playoffs next year. I think it's certainly looking like it's so far. I
mean, we haven't early had a young group in Buffalo that's exciting since maybe
two thousand and five, two thousand and six, and those are two teams
that went onto the Eastern Conference Finals, and it's finally looking like things are
tearing around in the right direction. It's been a very long time, but
I think they're easily one of the most fun teams to watch in hockey,
and a score a ton. They give up a lot of goals too,
which isn't good as a Savers fan, but it's fun a fan watching the
game. Always high event hockey and always players putting out big point totals now,
which is something that really not used to seeing in Buffalo. Yeah,
and speaking of big point totals, we have to start with the coarse,
raging Tage Thompson, as I like to call him. He's a fantastic It
was a fantastic season for him. What an incredible breakout of forty seven goals
forty seven assists. By the way, I just love the symmetry there.
Thanks Tage for just having the same number. That's easy to point out,
ninety nine point pace in his seventy eight games. It was awesome and he
was a bit of a breakout last year the seventy one point pace and a
lot of us were ringing our hands about is this real? Is this for
real? Is he really a seventy point guy? Apparently not, He's one
hundred point guy. And he had almost four point four shots a game,
which was really incredible and a decent amount of hits and blocks for those of
us who care about those kinds of things. Three and fifty faceoff wins not
bad. He didn't. He held steady at the fifteen percent shooting percentage.
That was the big rub is that you're looking at his career shooting percentage before
that, and he was in that seven range, and then last season he
shot fifteen percent, and then this season he shot fifteen point eight percent.
So I guess that's one of the questions. It's that just where he's going
to live now. His pdo ipp and power play ippe all suggests there may
be a touch of regression coming for Tage. If you look at his rampum
charts, his offensive impacts are pretty pretty big as you would expect her.
His expected goals against per sixty is awful, pretty awful defensive impact there,
and his powerplay goals for per sixties looks like he's trying to escape the page
on top pretty incredible there. His Dom does these value charts and his seven
point one million dollar contract had a surplus value with three point two million,
suggesting that he's definitely worth it. And then some one hindsight, I think
there's a big shift in our perception now from that Ryan O'Reilly trade. I'm
sure the Blues are happy with the cup that they got, but it's hard
not to like what Tage Thompson is doing, especially over Jordan Cairrou, who
is the guy that the Blues refused to include in that trade. I think
that this might actually be working out better for the Sabers. And anyways,
all that to say, what did you think of h Thompson's hundred point season?
Is this one hundred point Thompson here to stay because I don't want to
live in the world, But that's not the case. Yeah, it's still
a little hard to believe that, like Tag Thompson turned into the player we're
seeing now. I know, prior to this past season, his seventy point
year, I thought that year I think he finally showed up or like,
all right, this guy's for real, this guy's kind of who we thought
he could become. And then this past year, I don't think anybody,
even including H Thompson, even saw that coming with just with the goals,
the points he put up. And I was a bit stepptal at first.
I thought there would be regression with him, just because he's a guy that
traditionally hasn't had high shooting percentages outside these last two seasons. But just watch
him playing. The goals he scores are pretty incredible. His finishing ability,
it just seems insane. I don't think there's really many shooters in NHLs are
better than H. Thompson right now. So just from that alone, I
don't think we will see regression with him. I think really just with the
line they put him on in Buffalo with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuck, that
line is just generating a lot of offense every single game. Oh he's setting
up Tage with some dangerous shot opportunities. And I think Buffalo really created an
environment that allows H. Thompson to thrive, and he was a massive reason
why they came so close to the playoffs this past season. Another guy he
didn't have t Thompson's year, but Jeff Skinner he had a year man after
years where he didn't quite pay off that huge contract. Skinner delivered his first
season of his career over a point per game. How about that fiftieth overall
best Fantasy player Fantasy forward last year and Victor and I are kicking him up
toward Tier two for next year. He had his customary three shots per game.
That's something you can always count on, is that Skinner's gonna take some
shots. It's all offense here. Fantasy guys like it, maybe a little
bit more than some coaches do. As the advanced metrics put his defense in
line with that team that led in a lot of goals. Unfortunately, this
year he still only plays seventeen twenty four average time on ice, but he
played with Tuck and Tage for most of the season. That's a good place
to be. Skinner turns thirty one this year, and I would ask you
Walter is last year a real sign of what he can be with the maybe
the best linemates he's ever had somebody Duck, sorry miss Draichel, but the
best linemates Jeff Skinner's ever had. Walter. Yeah, I mean I think
he had that combo the icle working a little bit his first year in Buffalo,
but I really don't think there's been an environment quite as consistent as this
one to allow Jeff Skinner to produce like really high point totals. He's a
guy who just like thrives in chaos, and I think that line with agent
talk is exactly what that line brings. They really let Skinner play his game.
He's been a guy that's been getting dangerous shot opportunities really every year of
his NHL career so far. I think really the only differences whether or not
he could turn those into goals. He's been a bit of a roller coaster
players toward his career, but in his current situation, with that chaotic environment
they create in that top line, I do think he will continue to be
a consistent goal scorer. It's hard to believe he's already thirty one years old.
He still looks like he's twenty years old out there, and he even
looks like he's twenty years old too. Honestly, I don't know when his
game will slow down or if it slows down. He's really a unique player
just with the way he skates and gets around the ice, and like just
his ability to find dangerous areas of the ice. I think he's a player
whose game will aid well. And I do think he's a guy who's contract
look like one of the worst of the NHL just a few years ago,
but now it's looking close to fair value, which is another thing I did
not see coming. Hey, how about that one. Alex Tuck was the
third amigo on that line, but I would not say he's just on there
for a ride along. Alex Tuck was darned good last year, actually,
but these guys. He was the twenty ninth best forward in fantasy hockey,
and Victor and I both call him Tier two. Next year, he had
seventy nine points in seventy four games. That was third on the team,
with a scoring pace that actually exceeded skinners, but again he missed a few
games. It was the best season of Tuck's career, first time, well
over a point per game, three shots per game, approaching a hit and
a block per game. A lower body injury interrupted his late February in early
March, but missing eight games isn't terrible for a guy who missed sixty one
games combined over the past three years. Is this final the real Alex Tuck
we saw really blow up this year in Buffalo and should we expect another point
per game season on line one next year. Yeah, I do think Alex
talked along with those other two guys. I do think this is the version
of him we will see going forward. Once again, it's just an environment
that works well for every player in that line, and he's one of the
main chaos causers on that line. He's six four, one of the fastest
skaters in the NHL. He's always getting a loose pux. He's always creating
situations for guys like Skinner and Thompson to succeed. I do think the interesting
thing with him really everyone in that line will just be like their usage.
I do think Tuck maybe the one player they maybe try to put on another
line to get it going at some next year that opportunity where to arise.
But even then, I think the Series has so much scoring depth on their
team now with their young talent, that even if he's throwing a different line,
I still think he could succeed there. He's really been the hard and
soul of the Sabers offense, and ever since his arrival, the Sabers have
just looked different on offense and different in a better way. So I do
think We'll continue to see similar production moving forward, and I think he's just
a massive piece to the Sabers offense. It was the biggest regret of my
fantasy season early on, when he was not doing as well, I dropped
Alex Tuck and it was awful. So yeah, he was pretty great and
definitely won't be doing that again based on where he is now. But anyways,
let's move on to Dylan Cousins and I'll pull myself out of my shame
there. But Cousins had a pretty great breakout himself. He was right at
the two hundred point threshold, which I know Dabber always talks about. He
was two hundred and one games at the end of the season. He still
has pretty low time on ice does Cousins sixteen thirty, but he had thirty
one goals thirty seven assists for a sixty nine point pace is eighty one games.
That was pretty awesome. I think some of his low time on ice
is probably because of his low defensive acumen. His expected goals against and course
he against for sixty or pretty awful, and but his offensive are pretty good,
So you have the good with the bad there. He is someone who
has a decent number of hits and blocks, although that's not like a major
strength for him, but in fantasy he's not like a black hole or anything
there. For his entry level contract, he was pretty great at a four
point eight million dollars surplus this season five point seven million dollar market on his
ELC. But I know in cap leagues guys, that we're really wondering what
should we expect. Can he hold steady because five point seven million dollar market
is going to be under what he's making next year his seven point one million
dollars extension kicks in. So, Walter, do you think Cousins can replicate
or hopefully even build on what he did last season going in and next season
maybe even get close to an eighty point pace, because that would make his
contract much more worth it. What do you think about Cousins? Yeah,
I thought last season, production wise, is really a breakout year for him.
He's been someone that's been one of the better transition players on the Sabers.
He just struggled with that final part just putting the puck in the net
on his line, but that wasn't a problem for him nearly as much last
year, And I do think there may be even room for him to grow
offensively in the Sabers lineup as these young players improved. Is to his most
common lineup linemates last year, where Jack Quinn and JJ Paterka, And those
are two guys who are still obviously very young, both playing the World Championships
right now, even me in the gold medal game too, both guys having
really good tournaments. And there are two players in Buffalo who are expected to
take pretty sizeable jumps offensively next year. And I think along with that will
come more points for Dylan Cousins, really just because when that line this past
season was on, they were on, I mean, the Cousins Quinn Petka
line just unstoppable. Teams struggle defending the rush, just really had a hard
time against that line, and they had multiple, like three four point nights
each on that line throughout points of last season. So I do think there's
room for Cousins to grow. I just say the only thing that may hold
him back is just the fact that they already have a solidified top line,
So I do think that places a bit of a ceiling on how much he
can produce. But talent wise, and the fact that I do think Quinnipa
Turco will produce more. I do think there may be room for him to
maybe grow a little bit offensively next season. Well, I definitely want to
get to those guys in just a minute, But first, Kei's team middle
stat He hadn't got a full season in the prior three years, mostly because
of injuries, but this year he got the gold Star for perfect attendance eighty
two games. He rewarded the team that took him number eight overall six years
ago with fifteen goals forty four assists for fifty nine points in eighty two games
games only skating fifteen forty four at night. Mind you, he was then
the second assist guy ninety plus percent percentile for eight two per sixty among full
time forward, so he's getting a lot of those apples of the secondary variety.
But anyway, Casey has been a slow burn, but a good result
this year. What are we looking at is this Buffalo's third center of the
future or someone who will be squeezed by the kids coming up and finding himself
in a different role. I do think earlier in the season I probably would
have said this was going to be the guy that we'll probably get pushed out
of the lineup once all the young players come out. But really that last
eleven or twelve games stretched the Sabers head pushing for that playoff spot where they
won a lot of games. Middle Staff played in just a massive role in
that he's playing probably the best hockey of his NHL career. He filled in
on the Sabers top line for TG Thompson, who was injured or playing injured
towards the end of the season. So middle Staff filled in some huge shoes
there and he performed amazing. He put up the point totals, and he
kept that first line running as good as usual. I do think the coaching
staff loves him here. I do think there's going to be even more opportunities
for him next season. I think that's largely dependent on what the Sabers decide
to do with their lines, because I know they're shaking up the lines a
little bit towards the end of this past season, but that may have been
due to Tah Thompson's injury. I guess they'll late and see, but he
does look like a guy who's going to have a role with the Sabers,
probably in that third line center. All if I were to guess, but
he's a guy that's just able to produce offense. Really has just been all
around, like useful center for them down the stretch, which was something I
also did not expect a last season. But yeah, I would say he
has a future in Buffalo, and I do think he finally found a role
that fits a skill set in the NHL. Well, there are a whole
bunch of boards to talk about in the team. I'm going to clump a
couple of them together here, and then I know Vicker's got one more.
But you mentioned Jack Quinn and JJ Paturka. I'll throw in Victor Olifsson,
who's this kind of apples and origins here. But he's a guy who has
been around for a while, and there are at different points in their career,
but yet all of them skatered about thirteen to fourteen minutes a night last
year. All of them ended up with about the same production of half a
point per game. They do it in different ways. The twenty seven year
old Olivesson is almost entirely doing it from goals twenty eight of those and only
twelve assists, while Quinn and Paturka did their damage with the apples both became
old enough to buy a booze in the United States last season. That would
be Quinn and Patterka, and so there's now a lot of road ahead for
them. They're still just extremely young. As my point, who of this
group do you think is going to be the best for us to watch this
year? And well, any of these three guys you think fall off in
anyway from where they are now? For me right now, I would say
it's a close one between Quinn and Patterka for me, but I'm gonna go
Jack Quinn being the best next season. I watched all the Savers games last
year, and I was always surprised to see like Jack Quinn's point totals,
just because he's a guy that looked like so much better than the numbers he's
putting up. He's still very young, forward too, very exciting forward.
A Savers have a ton of confidence in both him and pet Turka, so
I do think they'll be put in positions to score. I think the big
thing for Quinn next year is power play time and maybe a little more difficult
for him to break down in that top unit as that's pretty set. But
I do think that second unit if it gets going or if they try to
do like a one B unit type of situation. I do see a lot
more production for him there, and I just think he's a fantastic player already
at his age doing what he does in the NHL is pretty impressive, So
I do expect the best year out of him. Victor Oliveson, I'd say
he's probably the most likely to fall off, just because he's seemed to loss
of trust of the coaching staff down the stretch. Beteran players go to a
lot of goals last year, but he was getting scratched in some very important
games. I don't think the additions Tyson Jost and Jordan Greenway like those depths
forwards. I think that's definitely pushed Olifsson harder down the lineup than in previous
seasons. I mean, he's got a clear talent with scoring goals, one
of the better shots in the NHL, but I mean it's all around game.
I feel it's just left the Buffalo coaches with a lot to be desired,
and he still has one year left on his contract. It's going to
be interesting to see what his role is next year if they just keep him
on as like a thirteen forward because I do have a hard time seeing him
breaking that starting twelve forward group, but I guess we'll see. I mean,
I do think he could be useful somewhere just because just be able to
score goals where most players can is a clear talent. By I mean,
it's just everything else, and it comes with this game that's been holding him
back in the Savers coaching staff's eyes. All right, those are good insights.
I love Paturka and Quinn and yeah, watching them watching him today beat
the Americans was super not fun, but at least Paturka. But that's gonna
be fun for them to play for the gold medal. And let's talk about
one more forward, and that's Peyton Krebs. Krebs was the Vegas one of
the Vegas picks came over and he's been stuck in that thirty point range the
last couple of season thirty point pace range. Looking at some of his underlying
numbers, he seems to be pretty adept offensively, but he's generating not no
offense, like this is what the chart tells me. You'll tell me if
you see something different. But his expected goals FORB for sixty or just awful,
like worse than fourth liners in the NHL, so that's really not reassuring.
His powerplay impacts have been pretty low as well, So is there so
still some breakout potential here with Crabs. We're at one hundred and thirty five
games. We just talked about how Cousins finally hit his broke at breakout as
he was closer to two hundred games, So that would probably happen for Crebs
this season if he played most of the season. So is there still hope
he can be an impact forward in the NHL? Offensively? He's always a
very talked about player amongst the Sabers community, just because he was a guy
that was considered a very big prospect when he's including the Chicle trade. But
really his role in Buffalo has been more of like a defensive forward type role,
which I certainly did not envisioned for him when they acquired him, And
I think that's largely due to the amount of bodies he has in front of
him in the lineup and the fact that he's been pretty decent a defensive forward
role. It's just really come at the expense of his offense, and I
think it's all based on opportunities he'll be given. I do think there's opportunities
for points for him on that second power play unit. I think that's really
been the only area where we've seen like his playmaking and juniors shine through at
the NHL level is on that power play. But at five on five,
he's just hasn't been a guy that's generated too much offense. He plays hard.
He typically played on a line with Gergenson's an Oposa, which was more
of a keep the pocket along the boards, keep the game simple line,
So he really didn't see too much playmaking for him at five on five,
and I wouldn't say I'm too confident that's going to change, at least not
as confident as I am with guys like Quinn or Cousins heading into this last
year. I do think now that the Savers have a bunch of young pieces
fitting into their roles, He's a guy where I don't think the Savers will
mind if he turns into a defensive minded bottom sixth center as long as he
can excel at that role. I just think that will be something that comes
at the expense of the office. Let's move over to the blue line.
Walter and Victory will tell you I always kept the faith with Rasmuss Dollin.
Now it just doesn't seem even like a ras Mustalin is pretty obviously one of
the top couple of defensemen in the NHL. Made a jump even where over
where Victor and I thought he would be. He was the fourth best defenseman
at Fantasy last year. He paid it off fifteen goals, fifty eight assists,
seventy three points in seventy eight games. That was a tie for fifth
among defensemen in the NHL. And if you look at just the power play
points, he was tied for third in the NHL two and a half shots,
one in three quarter blocks, let's say, and a healthy amount over
one hit per game. Six million dollars is an incredible bargain right now.
The Sabers get one more of that, one more year of that until the
salary will jump, And from what I'm reading it sounds like that is very
much on the minds of Sabers brass right now to make that happen and keep
him around long term. He did. If you're gonna pick nets, He
did slow down a little after the All Star break. He had fifty five
points in forty nine games, before the break seventeen and twenty nine. I
don't know, Rasmus Dalin, will we see another point per game jim from
him last year? And what are you seen from this guy to make him
what he is in the NHL right now? Yeah, I think he has
fully arrived at the NHL level at this point. He's a player that was
a little on and off some seasons earlier on in his career, but this
past season, I think we really saw just all around defenseman. He put
up the numbers on offense, he was sound defensively, he mixed things up
after the whistle. He just looked a lot more confident out there, and
I think that carried on throughout most of the season. He did have a
bit of a stretch where it seemed like he was playing injured or he just
slowed down a bit. I know he suffered an injury at one point that
maybe shook him up for a few games, but he really turned things back
on down the stretch, and I think he's right up there in that category
with some of the top defensemen in the league moving forward, especially with the
offense those forwards on the Sabers team are putting up I think he's going to
be the main guy like picking up those assists and even scoring goals like he
did last year along with those guys out there. So I think he's a
very exciting player going forward. I think he's going to be a guy that's
going to be a Norris finalist every once in a while, maybe win a
Norris or two, just because I think he has that point potential out there
and he's really saw it at both ends of the ice. And he's a
guy the Sabers have been using in pretty much every situation. Yeah, they
say you have to build your resume for the Norris and maybe he needs a
bit of a playoff run to do that, but I think it's coming for
Daline as well. He's and yes, Jesse has been a stand even when
others lost faith. It's good to see him doing that. Another guy was
good to see this year was Owen Power. He was obviously the first round
pick back in twenty twenty one and went back to college and that was really
good for him. He was able to step in the end of last season
previous season to the NHL and look pretty good. He played seventy nine games
this season, thirty five p points, so that's a pretty pretty solid amount
of points. Some people maybe have wanted more, but he played big minutes.
He got some power play to hime PK time almost twenty four minutes a
night. It is a lot for a first year guy, and it was
one point six. Shots are a little low. It hits her a little
low at twenty seven, but over a block per game at eighty five,
So that's pretty nice. If you look at his impacts, his offensive impacts
were actually really strong. His defensive was a little bit below average, so
he needs to work on that a little bit. But overall, he was
a great impact in terms of having a six point five million dollar surplus value
according to Dom's model. So that's pretty great. But Walter, what did
you see from him in his first season? What do you expect next season?
In particular, I wonder how you see the powerplay dynamic shifting. I
mean, with how great dolling, I can't imagine that Power steals the show.
Do they maybe put both guys on the top unites? Do they even
things out? I'm just wondering what kind of opportunity is Power going to get
on the power play? Yeah? I thought, oh, in power last
year I thought he's an incredible season, especially for a player his age,
and he's a guy that when he's out there, he moves around so much
on the blue line that he really like opens up lane and creates opportunities for
himself and his teammates. I do think one thing some people honestly improves is
definitely a shooting. He doesn't shoot the puck that much, which I guess
is good at times for a defenseman because he's always looking to create like the
most dangerous opportunity possible. But there has been times where he gets the puck
in a dangerous area and he just doesn't have a finishing ability that a guy
like Rasmus dot Len has to turn those shots into goals. So that's one
thing where if he does improve that, I could see a lot more points
coming just from that, because he's always getting the puck to those dangerous areas.
And I do think his role obviously becomes a bit tricky with Rasmus dot
Lene. I mean, there's not many teams in the NHL really ever,
that have two first overall picks. They're both left handed defenseman and a Sabers
seem set on playing them on separate pairs at least throughout mostly games, and
they paired them up during some games when they need a goal or need two
goals when they're down a bit. Don Garnado's used that strategy a bit the
power play unit. I do think the one thing holding them back from keeping
both of them together on that top unit right now is just the fact that
they don't really have like that number three option on defense to throw on the
second power play unit to run the point. I do think if they get
that option down the road, I think maybe a dolling power both on the
top unit will be something they look at, because neither guy really plays too
much like a defenseman, especially when you throw them in a powerplay situation.
Like both guys are great at like moving down low, getting in front,
dialing, the great at shooting. Both guys could playmate, so it could
be something I see down the road. I don't think it will happen next
season, but I mean I do think both guys will play just major roles
on the Savers team. I think both of them eat major minutes for this
team. I just have a two players like down two separate pairs will be
fantastic, And I think from what we've seen from Owen Power at his age
is just remarkable, and I think he's only gonna get better. Let'll tell
you what. I think a lot about Donalin. I think a lot about
Power. But the guy who snuck up on me for the role that he's
played with this team is Matthias Samuelson. And right now he's tied for the
longest term contract on the team seven more years ahead at four point three million
dollars per year. He's only twenty three, and he didn't score a lot
of points the only ten and actually only fifty five games this year with the
little overshot close to two blocks, close to two hits. He played twenty
two eleven average time on ice, which is a lot. Now, he
played with Donalin all year, which is something that's probably going to help your
performance. But if you find a good fit with Rasmustalin, that's a good
thing for your team to have. So I would ask you, what is
Matthia Samuelson to this team? And do you expect is this a guy who's
ever going to have in offensive parts in Buffalo success. Yeah, he's been
really a great player for the Savers. I think they really found a great
pair with him and Rasmus Dollen. I think that's going to be great for
a moving forward, is just getting those tough minutes alongside Rasmus Dollen. The
offense, he's never been much of an offensive player really at any level,
but there has been flashes at the NHL level where he's like carrying the puck
and gets through some guys and it's so wow, who is that? And
so it's Samuelson. I did not expect that, So I do think.
I mean, he's definitely experimented a bit this past season a bit with the
offensive side of things, So I do think there maybe room for mcgrow.
I mean, it's bread and butter so far, and the NHL has really
just been just being an all around style defensive player. He loves killing plays.
He's someone that it looks like you have him beat and then he comes
in with the stick and breaks up because he's just been great with that,
and everyone in the organization from the coaching staff to the GM just loves the
guy. That's why I signed that seven year deal in Buffalo despite not having
many NHL games under his belt. But I think he's going to be a
great piece going forward, and I do think he'll have a pretty sizable role
just because the coaching staff loves him with rassing the stalline, and who knows,
maybe the points come along for him as well, because the Sabers score
points whenever that top linees on the ice, and that top line is usually
on the ice of that Daleine Samuelson pair, So if you could pick up
a few extra points to there, I could definitely see that happening. Yeah,
let's move over to the goalies now. So the Sabers had the twenty
seventh expected goals against per sixty two point nine, but conceded the twenty six
actual goals per six per game, so three point six two. And looking
at their goals, they had obviously forty two year old Craig Anderson and he's
sounds like he's finally not going to be back. But they had a couple
other guys. They had Comrie and Ukapeca Lucan in for most of the season,
and then Devin Levi at the end. And Levi was definitely the best
and the guy want to start with, because this guy seventh round picked by
Florida, and he only fell because he's a little bit on the smaller side
and he was part of the Sam Reinhart trade. Reinhardt's looking pretty great in
Florida, but I think Buffalo is also pretty happy with what they got in
return there. And he was great internationally. Was Levi. He was great
in Northeastern and got into some NHL games this past season at the end when
Buffalo was really trying to make the playoffs, they turned to Levi. They
turned to this rookie and he was great in those seven games, went five
and two. I guess you could say if he just won one more game,
but he was really great. I don't think it was really on him
per se, but to the expected action that he got was dreadful. It's
like trying to escape the bottom of the page on this chart that I'm looking
at from Evolving Hockey, and he way I'll performed that his delta Fenwick was
small seven games, but one point six to nine is just ridiculous. And
in those seven games he saved almost five goals above expected, So really awesome.
I guess the only question here, Walter is is this guy really going
to be the volume starter for the Sabers this year? Because he has seven
games a professional experience under his belt, he has not played in the HL.
He has been playing in college and doing really well. But it's a
big jump and to expect him to play forty fifty sixty games that might be
a big leap. What do you expect from Devin Levy this upcoming season?
Yeah, yeah, I guess that's a major question, is like what the
Sabers envisioned Levi's role being this year. He's obviously better, remarkable, and
they trusted him with a ton of games down the stretch. They even used
him in the must win back to back series, which you rarely see from
most veteran NHL starters, let alone a rookie goalie. They have a ton
of confidence in him. Obviously a fantastic prospect too. But I think the
thing with the Savers is that they're really trying to push for that playoff spot
this season. In fact, I think most people view this upcoming season is
disappointing if they do miss the playoffs. So I think the question comes in
is do you want to go into that with a rookie goalie in a season
where the expectations are so high? And I think Devin Levi really presents a
challenging question there, just because he's just so good as a rookie. People
look at his straight up save percentage numbers in the NHL and his small sample
size and think, oh, it's not that great. But like you brought
up, the danger he was facing those games was pretty high, and he
saved a lot more goals than were expected. And I do think he's going
to be a guy that kind of like changes how the goalie position is played
with smaller goalies, just with the way he trains and they he approaches the
game. That's just how good I think this guy is, and I do
think the Savers have a ton of trust in him. I think they may
explore the goalie market this off season, but I don't think they're going to
be a team that puts all their eggs into acquiring goalie this offseason. I
do think if the right situation doesn't come up, I don't think they'd have
any problem pushing Devin Levi into a prominent role next season. Who that second
goal will be is probably the biggest question, but I think Devin Levi he's
gonna put up a fight no matter who that other goalie is. In Buffalo's
a great competitor, had a great run to end the season, and I
think he's a big reason why the Savers came so close to making the playoffs
towards the end of the season. So I think he'll have a big role
in Buffalo. I guess next seasons. The question is just how big his
role can be, and I think it depends how the goalie market fall.
But I do think there's a good chance he could be the Savers starter next
season. I know there are a lot of people who feel that way,
so we'll have to have to wait and see. Obviously, in cap leagues,
he's going to be incredible value if that is the case, because he'll
be on his elc putting up big numbers. Well, let's talk, as
you said, about the backup. Yeah, they may of course add someone
and that may throw this whole discussion into the blender, but for now,
we can talk about the guys who were on the team. Because both Lucapeca
Lucan and a Air Comrie are under contract for one more year, looking at
eight thirty seven k and Comrie at one point eight million, So if you
just look at the numbers, it's going to be at those numbers. Anyways,
it's going to be Comrie. If you look at some of the goals
save above expected, they were both pretty bad. Comrie had nineteen games,
UPL had thirty three games, and the Delta Fenwick was worse for Comrie,
but the goals tabe above expected was worse for UPL. Neither of them were
really good and part of the reason they're expected numbers dragged down so far.
Anderson we didn't really talk so much about, but he pretty much kept his
head above water in those twenty six games. He was at least pretty reasonable
UPL. Obviously, this is a guy that they drafted fairly high. It's
been a long time now, back in twenty seventeen, and he's just someone
who hasn't really seemed like he's worked out. So you almost wonder if it's
time to move on from him, let him explore a different market. I'm
not really sure what the plan is there. Camray had some spurts where he
looked okay, but then he also had some really bad games and looks pretty
awful. Neither of them were able to outperform the expected protection, though I
will say again the expected protection was poor, so it's not like they had
a ton to work with. But what is your feeling on these two guys?
Is Buffalo going to maybe move on from UPL? Does he still have
a future? Camra is a bit older and has always been that backup kind
of guy, so maybe it's a different conversation with him. But what do
you think of these two? I think this one's going to be interesting if
they don't make a move this offseason, just because I think both guys played
last year at a pretty similar level. Like you just brought up, I
do think what Comery has going for him is that the Sabers obviously liked him
enough last offseason to give him a two year dealing free agency, and he
battled injuries a little bit last year, and then he came back into a
situation where UPL was running the net with Anderson for a bit and struggled to
find really any game time down the stretch, which I don't think helped his
numbers too much, but he had some bad stretches unhealthy, and then he
has UPL. Gad's been developing the Sabers system for a while. Savers draft
pick. He had some incredible performances last season and also some of the worst
Sabers boy performances last season, So I guess I guess it just comes down
to preference. Do they go with the guy they picked up in free agency
who they seem to like a bit who had a pretty solid season of Winnipeg
before he signed Buffalo, Or do you hang your hat on upl's potential.
He's got great size, great mobility. Is a guy you want to let
go and have potentially succeeds somewhere else. I definitely don't want to be the
GM having to make that call, just because I do think if they move
on from UPL, you always have though. Could this guy turn into a
great start or someone else questioned, or maybe you turn away from comedy turns
into a solid backup and UPL doesn't pan out. I think at this point,
I honestly think it's a fifty fifty shot in my eyes, if they
don't add a goalie, who the backup will be. I could see the
argument from either. I could see our GM choosing either. I guess it's
just gonna come down to I don't even know what, honestly, maybe training
camp or whatever, but definitely not a goalie situation. I'm MBS have any
GM to have with that backup choice. Just because there's two options there that
really aren't the greatest. I just guess you're trying to choose the one that's
just not the worst. And I respect you too much Walter to bring up
the name Lena Soulmark right now. Yeah, the good ones that get away,
I guess I didn't. Oh, never mind, backfire. No,
why Walter, you've given us some great information on the Buffalo Sabers. Why
don't you let people know how they can follow your work and keep up with
the Sabers throughout the year. Yeah, you follow me at Saber Metrics on
Twitter SA b R E M E t R i X. And you can
also see some of my writing work for the Charging Buffalo or a credential log
that covers the Buffalo Sabers. So you'd see some of my logger form worked
on the air. And yeah, that's good. Fire passed up? What
grab? Now it's your weekly goalie talk with Kats Silberman Cat's instincts Now,
time for Kat's Instincts on the Buffalo Saber goalies. Thanks for joining us,
Kat Silverman of in goalmag. We have some pretty good goalies to talk about
in Buffalo, and so we're unlike some of the system we've talked about recently.
There are some really high end guys here to mention, and we're going
to start with Devin Levi. He was the seventh round pick by Florida back
in twenty twenty. He fell because he's six feet tall and maybe not even
six feet tall. He went to Buffalo in the Sam Ranhart trade. I
think Florida's pretty happy with Sam Ryanhart right now, and I think Buffalo is
pretty happy with Devin Levi. And he was really good back in twenty twenty
twenty one. Lost one game in that World Junior Championships. It was only
to the US. His goals against during the seven games were point seven five
sixty four say percentage, ridiculous stuff. The America has played a perfect game.
That's the only reason he lost that one game. And he went to
Northeastern was just as good. And then this season we got to see some
NHL action from him, and Buffalo turned to him with their season on the
line as they were making a playoff push, and he played really well.
Didn't work out for the team, but he was pretty impressive. I would
say looking at hockey prospecting, he's got about a twenty five percent chance right
now being an NHLer. I think a big part of that is because that
factor that model factors in his height, which gives him a huge ding.
And if you look at his evolving hockey graphs, he had some of the
worst expected save percentage of any goalie in the NHL this season based on Buffalo's
defense, and he outperformed that by the most significant margin of anyone. He
was incredible. The only thing I guess, the only knock I guess you
could say based on this graph is that his penalty kill wasn't as good,
But that's a different situation. Kat. What do your instincts tell us about
Devin Levi? Is he the heir apparent to be the starter in Buffalo?
Yes, he's perfect. I'm just kidding. I have to actively try to
temper myself with definite le by because I think he's wonderful. I know that
there are certain goaltenders that I haven't admitted bias for because when I watched them
play, they just play a technical style that just like checks all my boxes
and definitely buys one of those. He just plays a really structured, solid
game that's tracking based, really knows how to mix it up and get creative.
He's super nimble on his skates, but doesn't overcommit to in any one
direction. He just plays like a really consistent, fluid game that doesn't rely
on any one area of his game or any one skill set in order to
thrive, which is good because he's, like you said, he's on the
smaller side, so he avoids just creating those holes for himself by boxing himself
in. Is a goaltender who plays like X style of game. His numbers
were like just a goal or too shy of perfect every year leading up to
this year. And the only reason and he didn't have a perfect year this
year is because he played part of the year for Buffalo and they, like
you said, their defense did not do him any favors. That's another one
of those just cornnially rebuilding teams. But he's to me, the best technical
goaltender they've had in their system in years. I feel like it's been since
Ryan Miller at least. And I'm a lenas Olmark fan, so this is
no disrespect to him. He's obviously doing incredibly well for Boston, but I
think devinely By to me, is a better goaltender just from a structured perspective
and from a technical perspective, and so it's unfortunate that he probably isn't going
to be a called or contender in his first pro season, just because I
don't think he's going to be put in a situation where his numbers are going
to look like he's called or worthy. Although Buffalo could surprise us, they
could finally take that step forward and make their return their triumph returned to the
playoffs, riding on the cape of his goalie jersey. But I think he's
their best bet, and it's almost like he's their top tier and then they
don't have anyone that's coming in close to him. And I think that was
one of the smartest trades they've made in a very long time, because they
sorely needed that goaltender who looked like just a slam dunk and he's one of
those. So good for them. Yeah, good trade. And you were
a little hedging on whether he'd win the Calder, but I heard you say
he's better than the Vesna Trophy winner, So I guess he'll just win the
Vesna instead and that would work out. Okay, He's going to skip the
Calder and just go straight to the vestman. It's fine. I think Buffalo
would be okay with that too. Yeah. Great, great job, Devin
Lee. And he's past one of the guys we'll talk about later who some
people thought might have been the Air apparent. But we're going to first go
to Tapious lenin In. He's the next guy we're going to talk about.
And he was just drafted in twenty twenty two, so, as you just
mentioned, not really close to being an into already. He is huge.
Six five two thirty four played in the YIP system or JYP if you're a
North American, mostly at the U twenty level, but eight games in the
Liga where it didn't go so well for him. He didn't really have the
best in either of those. He also played a couple of games for the
Mestis in the Mestis League and internationally he also made some appearances. Basically,
none of his numbers look really good this year. He still has a pretty
high equivalency though. If you look at the Hockey Prospecting Model thirty two percent,
he looks I just pulled up some other Finnish goalie comps just to see
who he looked like. He looks a little bit like Billy Husso, but
that's again in this model. And I don't know about stylistically, but Kat,
should we be interested in lining in? What are your instincts tell us?
I think it's worth keeping an eye on him. He's well rounded.
I know that for people who get nervous about goaltender height, they don't have
to worry because as short as Devin leeviyas Tobias line In is just as tall.
He clocks in a six foot five, two hundred and thirty four pounds.
That's huge. He's for his size. He moves really well, which
I know that over in Finland that a lot of the teams are there's a
huge discrepancy between the most competitive teams in Liga and the ones that are essentially
some of those teams are playing with a goalie coach that works for their entire
system and is working on almost a volunteer basis, And like I said,
there's different rink sizes, like different funding levels for each of the teams,
so there's really just a huge gap there. My daughter came over to say
hi, she loves hearing about the goalies. I said that can skew numbers
pretty substantially because you have teams like a oh it was a huge one.
Yeah, So that's where a lot of the funding goes. You get a
lot of guys loaned when their prospects from the NHL, they'll loan guys they're
just so they can keep an eye on them because they have a lot of
good scouts and access there. And then you have some teams that are really
just car out there and don't get a lot of the same opportunities. And
that's okay. I when I was writing up on him last time, said
that due to his just athleticism and he's got some pretty decent hockey sense,
it's hard to be lying in with just a clean shot, but sometimes he
can get pulled out of position a little bit, and he's a pretty decent
puck handler. But he's also a really young goaltender, so sometimes that can
burn some younger goaltenders from time to time. So I think he's wanted to
wait and see on for sure. I think that Buffalo has put themselves in
a really nice position, which is surprising given that they had the NHL's oldest
goaltender this year and Craig Anderson. They it's weird saying that they've put themselves
in early en vehable position in that they can be patient with some of their
prospects. But they have they put themselves in early nice position where we don't
need lynan And to be ready right now. We don't even need him to
be ready in the next couple of years, so we can just wait and
see on him. But I don't think he's summon to discount quite yet.
Nice. Yeah, so it sounds like he could be in line for Mike
Smith type antics in the future. Yes, oh god, all right.
So the last guy we're going to talk about Uko Peca lucan In drafted way
back in twenty seventeen. UPL finally played double digit NHL games this season thirty
three, but he wasn't the main guy. As you mentioned, They leaned
heavily on the veteran Anderson, which was hilarious and frustrating for those of us
who wanted UPL to get more games, and it was a topsy turvy development
road for UPL. He had injuries, he had setbacks. We finally got
a good sample size of him in the NHL, and it did not go
well. I think it's very easy way to put it. He as I
mentioned Buffalo doesn't give their goalies the best protection, and he took that and
just didn't do anything with it. And Bethel Fenwick was way worse than expected.
Who knows that that can sometimes play with your mind. I'm sure when
you're cheating for two on ones or off your angles because you know that their
backdoor passes and things like that. So I don't really pretend to know all
that, but I know that his underlying number did not look good. His
hockey prospecting graduated the model in last year with twenty seven percent chance of being
an NHL OR. He was in that low thirties, high twenties the whole
time, which is decent for goalie prospects, but not great. His best
comp, his only comp that's really an NHL OR is Cam Talbot, who
was an average to below average NHL starter. And with Levi emerging, Lennon
in the weed in the weeds back there, what do we make of Ukapeca
Lucan and he's he's someone who's going to have to go to a different team
to maybe get a shot or is he just going to be an NHL backup
kind of guys? There? Hope he can be a one bee. What
do your instincts tell you about Uko, Pecca, Lucan and ket And I'm
hoping he could be a good backup because Kig Anderson can play another NHL season.
Maybe he could, But I think it was incredibly telling that Craig Anderson
came back. That was a surprise. I think a lot of us expected
him to retire and then he came back for another year. I think that
some people maybe naively thought that he was coming back to mentor Lucanan. I
was surprised that Lucanan was going to be there one of their NHL who's to
begin with, just because he essentially he made it up to the NHL sort
of on the same path as Lenas Olmark. He started to get some starts
just under Olmark there and ended up getting shuttled back down to the HL because
he just was not ready. And I don't know if his development got stunted
a little bitter, if they realized that he really just wasn't just didn't have
that upper tier of just composure and recovery to his game. But he gets
lost and I don't think he's an awful goaltender. I think that if he
did move to another team. I almost want him to just so we can
see him play behind a team that gives him even a fighting chance. But
he doesn't necessarily thrive all that well with the Amerks, which is a little
concerning seeing that even his AHL numbers haven't been super stellar over the years.
I don't know. I think they need a backup, and I guess they
could use him as that, but he hasn't done anything that's really wowed me
up to this point, and I unfortunately don't look at him and see sure
shot NHL or at all at this point. He almost gives off the kind
of tweener vibes, like a Richard Bachman type guy who can play in the
HL and has enough composure to his game that when you call him up to
the NHL, he's going to be able to hold his own and he's not
going to just completely implode and cause you to play your starter too many games.
But on the other hand, they did have to play Craig Anderson too
many games I think this year, and that said a lot to me,
So we'll see. I think he probably is going to end up being a
tandem with Devin Levi, which I don't love. Because that's a blind leading
the blind. There. That's giving your brand new goaltender Ukapeca. Lucanan is
his standem partner for experience. But it is learning to swim when someone ties
an anvil around your ankle. Is that what that's like? I think it's
like learning to swim when this swim instructor is still using water wings. It's
not necessary. It's not necessarily that I think Lucanan's gonna cause def and Leviy
to drown. It just there are a lot of things about Lucanan's game and
his recovery from bad games, because he doesn't recover well from bad games.
He plays a couple bad games in a row before he shakes it off.
That makes me not necessarily want to see him as the tandem for Levi,
as he's getting himself used to NHL gameplay. But he also seems like by
all accounts, including like when I've seen him at rinks, he's a really
nice guy. So I always feel really bad this guy's not an NHL but
he's not. He he didn't. He might prove me wrong. I'd love
to see him treated to another team. I think that there's probably a goaltender
out there, it's a little more experience that Buffalo could use as a backup
to Devin Levi. They could use a young goaltender as a reclamation project,
and I feel like Toronto has been loving those lately. They could always take
him, but I think he needs a change of environment in order to essentially
give me the confidence to say anything super positive about him. At this point,
I was just looking at the Americs, the Rochester Americans roster, and
the goalie who has been leading them through the playoffs is Malcolm sue Band and
the fact that UPL can't outplay him or Michael Houser gives me grave concern from
his future. But I just want to circle back to one thing he said
about Levi, just to be clear, you think Devine Levi can and will
be the starter for Buffalo at least get the volume starts next year. I
think he's capable of it. I don't know if that's necessarily if they're it's
tough because I think that they really should have taken a bigger step forward than
they did this last year. And if they do take that step forward and
have just a hair of structure on their defense, which in theory they should
they have some good young defenders on their team. Now, I don't think
there's any reason necessarily to park him in the HL. But if they look
like the Buffalo Sabers that we've seen unfortunately over probably the last fifteen years,
you don't necessarily want to do that to him. You don't want to throw
him to the Wolves. But I don't think he has anything about his game
that I look at and say, oh, this guy needs a ton of
HL seasoning. I think he's in HL ready, so awesome. That's gonna
be fun, and he's gonna go high even in redraft leagues. Definite LEVI.
So thanks Cad forgiving us stinks on the Buffalo Sabers system. We'll be
back right after this the Dynasty dig. It's Buffalo Sabers time. It is
prospect time. Here is what we could say about the Buffalo Sabers prospect situation.
They have the number thirteen pick in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. They
have all their own picks except their third rounder, but they acquired the Los
Angeles King's third rounder for Eric Portillo. They have Philadelphia's second round pick from
the Erasmus Risk to line and trade, and Victor loves this system, has
it ranked overall victor. That must start with your no brainer. And let's
just not talk about the fact that Yarno tried to talk need this guy earlier
in the year and I gave him the cold shoulder. Who's your no brainer?
Yeah, Yano knows what he's talking about. Yuri Coolich is the guy
that we're going to talk about here. What a year after being drafted twenty
eighth overall by Buffalo out of the Czech League part of the return they got
for the Sam Ryan Hard deal along with Devin Levi, we mentioned that I'd
say both teams are pretty happy, and Coolich is going to make them even
happier than just getting Levi looking at the starting goalie and potentially their next number
one center or listen further to see if that's true. But he came to
North America played for the Rochester Americans in the HL. It's pretty unusual to
have a D plus one guy playing the HL, just the mostly Europeans,
some of the guys that were long before this HL NHL agreement, or guys
during COVID. But Coolidge put up forty six points in sixty two HL games
as mostly an eighteen year old. He turned nineteen on April fourteenth. That
is ridiculous. Twenty four goals and twenty two assists, a little bit more
goals than assists. That's the eleventh best mark all time in the HL for
an eighteen year old. Guys ahead of him only three that you would recognize,
David Postnak, Willy Nie Lander and Cole Perfetti. Those are pretty good
names. Guys behind him Jesse Pouliarve, Kevin Fiala Filipedo, There's some other
guys to a bunch of defensemen and some other forwards. Coolest didn't stop in
the regular season, though, he's still going ten points in eight playoff games,
including six goals. He's ended many of those games too, and over
time and Ben had the game winners. His one point two five points per
game are the fourth most by a teenager in the HL. Ever, guys
ahead of him jj Paturka did it last year. He's starring for Germany over
at the Worlds. As we mentioned earlier, Jeff Carter, Tyler, Bertuzzi,
Willie knee Lander, Patrice bergeron Comtois Larkin. All of those guys he's
ahead of, so that's pretty amazing bur Yurikolich. We had Jacob Stoller on
the dab or that were Prospects Report podcast and he does these really great player
cards like the Jay Fresh ones for the HL, and Coolich has some pretty
good numbers. Is hit and miss his game score at sixty four percent,
goals are on goals chances and powerplay goals are really the top for him,
as well as some shots. His coursie against expectacles against hits are all really
low and a little bit lower on assists, but overall some pretty awesome offensive
impacts for a teenager. And for a little bit more about what makes Urie
Coolidge so special, let's hear from our FHL scout. That's right, Victor.
FHL scout Brandon ad a look at Urie Coolidge and here's what he found.
The skating very potent and powerful stride that lends to deceptive acceleration, especially
from a glide. Quite efficient with the zedge work, not flashy for the
sake of flash, not overly explosive, but generates linear speed that allows him
to get behind defenders or on to open ice. Like his skating puck handling
equally elegant, void of over complication. His shot candid of a one tim
or from the right circle in the power play comes off his stick in her
hurry that puck does, and he uses shots and goals as an engine to
create rebounds and chaos. IQ reads the ice on developing plays very well,
often seems to have a solution. One under attack drives on the power play
with the added time and space, defense circles back to cover, rushing and
carrying d's even on prolonged pinches in the ozone responsibly one of the first men
back to help the D or back check best asset, general finesse, in
efficiency of movement check army knife. Look at that Brandon making a fun statement
right there. The biggest concerned his style can look like he's not trying as
hard as he ought to because his footworks aren't choppy and busy and he's not
trying to cram ten deeks into one. Might be frustrating to both coach and
fan alike at times. Top tier potential, So what would be the best
case outcome for mister Coolidge? He thinks seventy pointer on top of the top
unit power play skilled playmaker point per game. Even perhaps he ought to put
up a solid amount of shots, but Brandon would like to see him shoot
more rather low peripherals. Otherwise, but most likely Tier Well, Brandon's a
little more pessimistic there. Season is more of a third liner two way forward
with checking assignments, thirty five points, second unit power play. If he
hasn't putting up points and shots that are limited by ice time, he doesn't
have the current skill set to provide much else. Statistically stylistic comparison, here's
an interesting one and Jacopitar crossed with Arturrey leckinit That's wow, that's a range
right there. And the NHL rank King Mason Black. He is the king
who did he decide to put Coolidge up against in our head to head Jacob
Pelletier of the Calvary Flames. That is our comparison to deal with today and
our guy Nate. He also pulled out Jorgan Cairo is a guy who comes
up on the Byron Bader Hockey Prospecting model as somewhat similar to Coolidge. But
Coolidge versus Pelletier in the Mason Blackpole it was this will get a lot of
votes, and Coolidge came out ahead seventy percent to thirty percent. Is that
your preference as well, Victor, Definitely, I think this is a little
unfair to Jacob Pelletier. Actually, I think that he is someone who's taken
a while. He's come around, he's gotten some NHL games, He's looked
really good and the HL the past couple of years over a point per game
this season, a little bit under last season, has really made a strong
transition to the NHL, especially the fact that he's a little bit under size
at five ten Pelletier is So this is not to slide him at all,
because I still think he's got pretty decent upside. But what Jury Coolidge is
doing is ridiculous, Like he early does look like their next number one center.
I know that they have Tage Thompson, I know Dylan Cousins is looking
great, but he's looking like a top six center, and that is extremely
valuable. I would take Coolidge in a heartbeat. There aren't guys that do
what he's doing this young and don't end up being really high end performers.
Also, Jesse, every assignment Ury Coolich gets is a checking assignment, is
it not? Oh my gosh, Victor, we are pouring it on today,
pour in and on poured on with your need to know prospect. You
need to know Noah Ocelin. He's going to be our need to know.
He's taken sixteenth overall back in twenty twenty two, so he was taken before
Ury Coolitch and he's not as exciting. He's part of that Jure Gardens trio
that we've talked so much about with Ogrin and let Ganimaki. Had a good
season for them and the Hockey else Fence Gin twenty six points in thirty seven
games. He was the lowest point producer of that trio in the playoffs five
points in twelve games. Trying to get promoted didn't work out. Drew Gardens
felt just one game short of getting promoted back to the SHL, losing to
Moto Hockey in seven games. Olson also represented Sweden at the U twenty World
Junior Championships with four points in seven games. He looked pretty good looking at
some of these underlying stats for Oceland from sport contracts or new partners that he's
got some really good contributions in terms of his exit and entry control percent ozone
passing some of the recoveries in terms of puck recovery forcing dumpins and things like
that. Some of the things that aren't his best forte his primary shot assists,
blocks certainly aren't his thing, and his shooting is not as good as
you would like in terms of volume, so a little bit lower expected goals
for sixty slot shots total shots. But I'll hear a little bit more from
what makes Oceland so interesting. Let's hear from our FHL scout. Our fill
scout for mister Osland is FHL MVP Nate, and what he had to say
is the skating here above average. Reached another level in his second season in
the Swedish League there and there were times he looked to be all over the
ice, speeding around the offensive zone to support his teammates and being the first
forward back in the defensive zone. Impressed with his agility was Nate. Puck
handling elite. Watching Osland go through traffic with a puck on a string is
fun to watch, gives him confidence that he could succeed in North America.
Doesn't shy away from high traffic areas as much as he did in his first
season, and build more confidence with the puck as the season went on.
Playmaking is the most elite of his skills, the shot. Average Oceland shot
doesn't have the power to blow many goals away right now. He definitely doesn't
have the shot makeup a goal store, so he needs to work on his
strength and improve his shot to increase his goals IQ elite. One thing that
stands out to Nate about Oceland as he always seems to be in the right
position, whether it's support this defenseman in the defensive zone or giving his line
meets an outlet when attacking. He shows elite vision in the offensive zone,
specifically on the power play. There's a reason many scouts labeled him as being
one of the smartest players in his draft class. Defense above average, very
reliable on the defensive end, evident he prides himself on his defensive game,
even though he is an elite playmaking forward. In the defensive end, he's
always below the puck supporting this defenseman. He also has his great stick,
taking away many scoring chances by breaking up passes and catching players on the back
check. And the best asset, like we said, playmaking. He has
a chance to be an elite playmaking center at the pro level. The biggest
concern though, strength and physical play. Osland has improved on this in his
second season, but he gets pushed still around by a bigger defenseman when they
challenge him physically. He will need to improve on this a lot to succeed
in North America, and the fact he thrives in the more wide open European
game is a cause for concern. What's the upside? What's the top potential
for Oceland? First line center? Says Nate Oastland could be very effective two
way center at the NHL level, defensively responsible at his own end if playing
with two skilled wingers, could be an elite distributor of the puck at the
offensive end. Most likely tier middle six forward. Oceland's more likely path middle
six on a good Savers team, moving up and down the lineup, since
his strings could be effective with any linemate who can finish. Always going to
have a spot on the power play with his ability to work the half wall
with his playmaking and a stylistic comparable, Nate says, Braton Point stylistically sees
a lot of Braton Points game supportive and reliable and defensive zone fine everywhere around
the ice and the offensive zone, supporting his teammates uncanny ability to play with
skilled players and get them a puck. Noah Osland in the NHL rank King
data with the Mason Black is a familiar face. Victor loves to talk about
this guy because he used to cover Boston and this was the only Boston guy.
Fabian Lisell. Ocean Versus Lisell is the comp and they're somewhat close.
In the Byron Bader Hockey Prospecting model, Nate also pulled out Lucas Ramat as
a guy who has a similar career trajectory so far to Noah Oceland. Of
course he blew up like crazy when he came over from Sweden. So Osland
Versus Lisell went out on the internet. The people had their say voting for
this and Oceland buy a hair fifty two percent to forty eight percent over Fabian
Lisell. Is this time to turntail on your favorite Boston bruin and go with
no Osland, Victor, or are you going to stick with Fabian? Actually,
patrons have access to my organizational ranks, and I did not have Fabian
Lessel as the best Boston prospect that has already come to pass. And yeah,
all right, he did, all right, in the HL this year?
Did Lisell thirty seven points in fifty four games and not bad. But
there's a guy that I like a little bit better. And when we get
to past and I'll certainly talk more about Frederick Burnett, but he's a defenseman
who I think has pretty good upside. Anyways, between these two, I
do still like li Sell. I'm not like totally out on him, but
no, Ocelan just looks like a top six center for sure. He's and
as Nate mentioned, he's gonna get all the opportunity and what a great luxury.
Right We just talked about two guys that look like they could be the
Buffalo Sabers next top line center or top six center. That means that one
of these guys is probably going to be a third line center and they're going
to be stacked down the middle. So Oceland is pretty exciting. I think
that if you just look at pure offensive upside, Lissel probably has more because
there really isn't a lot of reason to have him out there if he's not
getting an offensive role, whereas Oceland could be pushed back into a third line
checking role. Not unlike someone like Anton Lindell, who I think is a
great two way forward. I'll respect to Nate. I don't know about the
Brandon point, and that's amazing. If he reaches that, that would be
great for Buffalo. I think more like Lindell, someone who's two way responsible
and can certainly provide offense, but is not going to demand those offensive minutes.
And with all the guys ahead of him, I don't know if Oslin
pushes his way all the way to the top, but he certainly could.
So this is a tough one. I think I would I like Ocelin better
as the player, but in terms of who has more fantasy upside, I
think it's Lisell, even though Boston scares me now with how their system,
how they're obviously what happened this, and who knows what's going to happen in
the offseason. Are they gonna try to get the band back together one more
time? Are they gonna start retooling? What is going to happen and what's
going to be there when Lisell gets there. I'm sure poster Knock and McAvoy
will be there, but who else. So if it's just him and he
comes into that, great, but there may not be much to work with
but I guess I'm gonna lean Lisell Jesse. Yeah, I think that's fair.
I don't like hearing not a great shot, just an average shot in
a below average physical game. Love that, IQ, but that's going to
take away all the PRIs that you want. If those are the things that
are going on. So we'll see. We'll see what happens with this guy.
And by the way, I should just say Nate's scouting report is even
more comprehensive than what I read here. I tend to summarize these reports.
If you get your patron access and you read our I think nearly fifty pages
some notes on this episode, you can see the thing in full. Third
of the prospects Victor is to keep your eye on who is it? Yeah,
we got Matthew Savoy here as our keep your eye on the ninth overall
pick from twenty twenty two. Just what a haul for the Sabers in twenty
twenty two, all these guys were talking about I'll shoot at the top of
their prospect list, which was already pretty strong. Savoy fell to ninth overall
in his draft because of his size and yes, he's still only five nine
eighty pounds. He had a good D plus one season five points in sixty
two games, but that was only modestly better than his ninety points in sixty
five games during his draft seasons. That was a little bit disappointing and maybe
not the biggest step you would like to have seen from him. But Savoy
did absolutely massively increase his playoff performance with twenty nine points in nineteen games as
the Winnipeg Jets came up short in the WHL Championship to the Seattle Thunderbirds.
The Thunderbirds seem like they're a team of destiny, so we'll have to see
what happens in the Memorial Cup. Maybe someone will upset them, but they
look like combautable at times, so good on them to do so well as
they did. Savoy and Mitch Brown's tracking data has some pretty elite expected goals
for sixty. He also really does a really good job of creating high danger
chances in the slot, so his offensive acumen there is great. One of
the things he really struggles with, according to this data, is a transition
game. His controlled exits and transition success is pretty poor. Is a defense
in terms of course he against its actually pretty good though, so that's interesting
and some of his off puck assists unexpected primary says look really good actually in
this model. But to hear a little bit more about Matthew Savoya, let's
hear from our fl scout and the FHL's scout for Matthew Savoya is branded.
He says for the skating, he's a north south skater. Is a savoy,
can change later laterally change lanes quite effectively. Lack speed and power,
awkward edgework, doesn't utilize a high degree of mortar, but motor, but
will be redline when on the rush, especially for odd man rush puck handling
heads up not flashy, may overhandle the pucket times, but can he effectively
break up plays, disrupt the puck carrier with his stick work, and has
potential to make incredible passes, but still a little inconsistent in his effort on
the passing shot. High volume opportunistic shooter will take shots on goal, even
if it's only to create chaos and rebounds. Explosive one timer crisp snapshot iq
waited to anticipate offensive breaks even when on the defense. Can make high level
plays under pressure and defense. Often the last man back on d zone coverage
can be disruptive and dangerous on the PK with his opportunistic leanings. Best asset
is the shot. As we said, biggest concern. Skating in all areas
is about average for the DUB. Could use power development and refinement of edgework
that could unlock more fluidity. So what's the top tier? What's the upside
for mister Savoy. It's complimentary volume shooter, seventy pointer, special teams deployment.
Not sure if the size and skating will make him a good NHL center,
though most likely tier thirty five point middle six forward with low peripherals.
Besides shots, potential for him to get caught in limbo between the HL and
NHL if his game remains raw similar optists. Now we're going to go to
the comparables. This is wild This is wildness stuff, a much less gritty
and greasy Zach Hyman with shades of Tyler Ennis and Patty Kane, especially in
regards to the rigid upper body posture of the ladder. So we're man,
We're Frankenstein in this thing. So I don't think he's saying Patrick Kane,
but there are elements of some of these different players that he's seen, so
that's incisive. NHL rank King Mason Black has come out with the pole Matthew
Savoy versus Alexander Holtz, another guy who's known for his shooting and going for
those goals. And in addition to that, our guy Nate came up with
Brian Gianti as a guy who maybe would be a historical comparison for Matthews Savoy.
So the Mason Black pole, Matthew Savoy, Alexander Holtz. Savoy comes
out ahead in a heavy pole fifty two percent to forty eight percent, Victor,
Is that an accurate assessment of where you have these two guys? These
are two guys that I struggle with. They both have their issues being small
and not being a good skater. That's always a problem. Being small and
not being a great skater is usually an issue. We're making a tremendous impact.
The other thing, you didn't mention the comps on the PNHL similarity score,
but I think they're pretty interesting. So Matthew Savoy, Dawson Mercer,
Nazim Khadri Adam Ernie So Ernie maybe not as interesting, but the other two
in terms of like offensive upside maybe, although both those guys are bigger and
better skaters. And then Holds on the other hand, obviously we know he
has a great shot, he has some great offensive acumen. He's not terribly
small, but he's just a one way kind of guy. There's no real
defense there, and so that's a bit concerning. I don't think that Savoy
is a center in the NHL, So you're talking about a playmaking winger,
and there can be some value there, and he's certainly seems reasonable. I
think Gianta is probably not an unreasonable comp there, especially based on size.
He was even smaller but just so good, so smart at finding those spaces,
and I think the boy is like that. He can find those spaces,
he can open up and create offense that way. But the porcing is
really an issue. Huh. I guess between the two, I'm gonna lean
Holtz because I think that role that he can get, he can he can
play in a top six, he can be like that Mike Coffman guy.
That just he's pretty much a good shot in good offense and he's going to
get that role and get powerplay points. And if you're going to put him
with a good responsible center, like a Niko Hisher, then you know he
can be great. And I have more concerns with Savoy being able to translate
to the NHL, and we'll have to see how he can do in the
HL next year. But I'm going to take Holts even though both these guys
give me a little pause. Jesse, Yeah, I used to my refrain
about Holts on this show over the years. Has Ben he's a goal scorer,
doesn't score goals, and finally in the HL, I guess I gotta
lighten up a little bit because he's getting about half a goal per game and
going on a point per game. It didn't do much with Jersey so far
this year. I'm going to take Savoy for now because I like what I'm
hearing about this guy on the way up, but it sounds like the potential
is probably a bit capped out. But then we're talking about the third prospect
on the team here. Yeah, And I think just the other thing I
wouldn't say about these guys is that I think it's pretty interesting how it's reverse
order of how they were picked. Right, Like Coolidge the best, he
was drafted the latest in the third round. Oceland has a really high floor,
and I think is going to be an nhlor and an impact maybe not
so much in fantasy, but he's one of those guys that is just so
good two way that he's going to get opportunity, he's going to get goodlinemates,
he's gonna score some points, and Savoy just has questions whether he can
even whether he'll even be an NHL or whether he'll be an impact guy or
kind of a tweeterer. So interesting how it went in reverse order of how
you might think. But I think more eyebrows would have been raised if they
had taken Coolidge at the position that they took Savoy in at ninth overall.
But that's just how it works out. It's easy to look back in hindsight,
but that's all the time we have for these guys, Jesse. They're
more guys to talk about. As you mentioned, there's a lot more info
on the one Note Scouting document if people want to subscribe it and check that
out. On Patreon, you can listen to my top ten lists, which
I'll be doing more and more of as we go through the summer here.
It's been busy with the recordings lately, but those are going to be coming
out, and if you're interested in doing some scouting or helping out with the
show at all, there's some behind the scenes stuff that you can do,
like our buddy Nate is. And so shoot me a DM on Twitter,
Discord, or email us at next Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com.
We'll come right back. We'll go the show. Hey, hey, a
couple of things remind you of before we get out of here today. One
of them is our show is on the fan Tracks podcast network. That's right,
Jesse, I am a Fantracks guy. I not only work on Fantrax's
HQ and or you know, just contribute to Fan Tracks HQ, but I
also try to play all my leagues there because they simply have the most options.
You can move leagues over to fan Tracks. If you have a Dynasty
league and you're like, you know, I'm kind of stuck on another platform
because it's just going to be too much work for me to move them over.
They actually will help import your leagues or you can start new ones.
That is a whole lot of fun. You could be doing that today.
You don't have to wait months to do it. They've got the most options
for scoring you can do salaries and contracts, you can customize your rookie eligibility,
you can do all kinds of different things. They even have a good
mobile chat feature, while other platforms are trying to get rid of that extra
stuff. Seems like a lot of sites these days just aren't caring quite as
much about supporting US fantasy players. But fan tracks always will. Fan Tracks
HQ fantasy content. As I said, it's not only a plane site.
It's also got content. There's articles on fantasy hockey. There will be a
lot, I'm sure as we get closer to the graft from the writers there.
There are also articles on all the fantasy sports. I think there's even
Formula one. I think Formula one is even a sport you can play,
and of course the golf, College football, a lot of good college football
stuff going on. John Lobb great guy. You can read his work at
Fantrack's HQ. But there are podcasts there as well. For fantasy baseball you
can listen to the Prospect Pod and Full Count Fantasy Baseball, and there is
a football that is the Fly Fantasy Football, and then for basketball you can
listen to the Fantasy Hoops. We'd like to thank our producer Nate Duffett,
FHL Scout Extraordinaire, but more to the point, producer for this show,
because he's been helping out a ton with show prep. This is literally a
forty page document Victor and I prepare every week with charts and graphs and all
sorts of inserts, and it is a pretty elaborate process pulling stuff in from
all sorts of different sources. So Nate has been indispensable with that just starting
out just here. Recently, our shows brought to you also on the Dabber
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an editor. He writes about the draft, about prospects, about the Detroit
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and there's all kinds of NHL draft content going on there. You should be
looking at daber Prospects dot com. You can follow his work there in the
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