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As crazy as it sounds like.
I think inflation is going to get under

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control. My problem is it going
to get under control because they pushed it

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too far and they broke the economy
and pushed us into this recession which now

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people don't believe is going to happen
anymore. It's still going to happen.

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You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
Network, where you get valuable information.

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00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,960
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gift. Financial Survival Network now more than

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ever, And welcome you are listening
to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm

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your host, Carrie Letts. Well, is the market getting too complacent?

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Did in fact the economists blow it
and we're not going to have a recession?

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Imagine if they threw a recession and
nobody came. Well, James luck

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is with us now and James,
great to have you back on. So

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even the bears are throwing in the
towel, Now, what are you seeing?

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Well, uh, you know,
just on that kind of point,

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whether whether this recession is real or
not. Um, you know, we'll

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see. I'm always kind of looking
at what you know, the professionals are

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saying that sort of thing. And
like I was saying, the famous Morgan

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analyst named Mike Wilson, he's a
huge bear market analyst, and he was

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wrong from the SMP thirty five hundred, forty four hundred and finally kind of

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came out and apologized and said,
yeah, I got it wrong. You

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know, maybe maybe the market isn't
as bearish as I had thought. Well,

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when the most bearish guy in a
room turns bullish, does that mean

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the markets do for a correction?
Probably? Right, that means, you

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know, maybe it's time to get
short a little bit, or maybe it's

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time to you know, no one, no one ever, you know they

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from the trading enage, right,
no one ever goes poor ring in the

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cash register, right, So if
you maybe take some money off the table.

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But some of the other indications we
saw last year, there were a

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lot of people going into T bills. You saw a lot of that kind

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of into that safety and now all
of a sudden, no one cares about

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T bills. You're seeing people coming
out of T bills going into these tech

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stocks, you know, as the
market's going up into the hires. It's

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almost like it's it's a Hollywood movie
script, right, you can't you can't

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do this any better. So between
strategists saying maybe I was wrong that we're

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going up and people exiting safe money
and going into tech stocks and AI can

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solve, you know, solve everything. Like I said, it's it's maybe

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it's a little maybe it's an indication
to book some games. That's kind of

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where I'm getting that. You know, you don't think, James, you

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don't think that I can solve all
our problems. I think AI is going

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to help our society. I don't
know how yet, you know, but

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you know it's going to help us
in ways that we can't imagine yet.

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Is it going to solve all all
problems? I am very confident that it

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will not do that, you know, and it needs to be integrated into

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society and figured out how it can
help, you know, without without the

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terminator coming in. Right, That's
that's the always fear alight. So what

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are we going to say? You
think that they're they're actually going to be

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right, but they're just going to
be right at the wrong time. Um

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well, I mean in the short
run, no one really knows what AI

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is going to do right, and
in the long run it's it's going to

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be very profitable for a lot of
people. So the thing is, is

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it going to be profitable for everyone? You know? Who knows? You

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know, can Nvidia keep this rally
going? You know, at some point

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reality has to set in, an
AI has to actually do something right.

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You know, Like I said,
I when I say taking money off the

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table, Like it's not like I'm
sitting here saying there's a crash coming.

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But you know, you could easily
see a ten to fifteen percent correction in

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the market and it'll take a lot
of people by surprise. You know,

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it always does, it always does. What about what about with rates where

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they are here? You know,
you got mortgage rates over seven percent for

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a thirty year ye fixed mortgage,
and you've got the Fed funds or trading

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between five and a quarter and five
and a half, and it just doesn't

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seem like anybody cares. Right,
And here's the thing, Right, we

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can sit here and you know,
talk about reality until we're blow in the

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face. Right, rates Fed funds
over five war in Europe, by the

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way, people just forget about that. You know, there's a constant threat

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of inflation. I mean, you
know, we were just talking about how

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inflation was unbeatable nine months ago,
and now we're talking about you start hearing

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about deflation. You know, we
beat everything in nine months and that's it.

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Um, So you know, we
can talk about it. But I

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don't know that that the everyday investor
is really kind of believing that. And

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that's you know, you hate to
say it, but it's one of those

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things. It's like, you want
to know what the market's doing. Don't

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follow the smart money, follow the
dumb money, right right, that's that's

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going to bounce it in their face
kind of thing. But uh, you

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know, nine months to go from
hyperinflation to deflation seems awfully quick, right

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to me. I don't I don't
know that inflation is gone from that point

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of view, you know, I
don't believe it. But yeah, but

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you know, perception is reality to
these people until it's not right, right,

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That's what I mean. That's why
I said I think a lot of

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a lot of people are going to
get get kind of bitten in the cheek

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meat a little bit here when when
there's some sort of bounce back and it's

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mony. I was, you know
a lot of people in trading and in

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markets like to talk about sports analogies
and things like that. I was talking

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with someone who said, you know, recently, the S and P five

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hundred is more like the NBA than
Major League Baseball. Right. If you

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think of the NBA, you have
you know, one or two stars,

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and that carries a team to victory. Whereas in baseball, you know,

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if you have one star, he
only comes up to plate four times a

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game or pitches every five games,
right, so you can't rely on one

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star. But it seems the S
and P five hundred is a lot like

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the NBA. Right. We have
these kind of magnificent seven stocks and video

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Facebook's Tesla, and right now that
seems to be working. Right. You

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hand the ball to your stars and
off they go, and they pull everything

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along with it. You know,
but at some point someone's going to get

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a torn acl or reality is going
to comment or some other well balanced they

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get arrested for drugs, dw lie
or some heinous crime. Right, more

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likely, you know than injuries,
it seems these days. That's that's all

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too true. But you know that's
that's what we're saying, is that you

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know right now, it's it's it's
this like superstar and you've got to be

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in this superstar to make any you
know, real money, so to speak.

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And you know, there's lots of
opportunity out there. It doesn't have

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to be you know, Facebook and
Tesla and Nvidia, and don't get me

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wrong, there's opportunity there. It's
just now you're talking about a lot of

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a lot of volatility. There's just
not a lot of diversification, you know

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anymore that that I'm not really I'm
not really seeing that. So now,

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are we going to get inflation under
control? Probably? Um? Is the

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Fed going to stop hiking rates?
Probably not, whether inflation gets in control

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or not. And you know,
you've got international concerns going on. You

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know, we've got the verted yield
curve. I mean that will uninvert at

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some point, and you know,
short term rates are going to come down

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a lot, right, and long
term rates are going to come down too,

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and then people are going to be
you know, wishing they had,

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you know, locked in better interest
rates and you know, higher looking dividend

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things rather than kind of the Magnificent
seven. Now they can't all be in

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one basket. So you really think
inflation is over it's done. It's certainly

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not done. But my fear is
more the other way around. I think

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it's going to be done because the
Fed's going to break everything. I just

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gosh, I hope I'm wrong,
right, But they just have such a

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track record of you know, pushing
it until it's over the limit, or

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not pushing it enough. Right.
Yeah, So as crazy as it sounds

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like, I think inflation is going
to get under control, my problem is

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is it going to get under control
because they pushed it too far and they

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broke the economy and pushed us into
this recession which now people don't believe is

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going to happen anymore. It's still
going to happen. You can't keep you

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know, this kind of rate up
in the market and you know, not

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have real returns. At some point, like I said, ay, it's

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going to have to produce something.
The economy is going to have to produce

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something, and then you know,
then you'll see which of the stock you're

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going to hold their own? All
right, So can AI pull a rabbit

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out of the hat? It?
Can I wouldn't bet on it, but

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but it definitely can. You know, some of the AI world is going

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to be, you know, extremely
profitable. And I said, I don't

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even I don't it's hard for me
to even judge what it's going to do,

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right, what it's going to automate. I mean, there's all kinds

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of crazy thoughts. You know,
everyone always talks about self driving cars and

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things like that. We're still thinking
very classically, well, the car is

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gonna drive itself and you're sitting behind
a steering wheel, Well it might be

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that. Eventually, a self driving
car means it's it's an office, right,

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and you're sitting there doing work,
right, and so there's more productive

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you know, productivity going on.
Ye, So you know, and that's

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that's even a crazy like that,
that's like the Jetsons, you know what

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I mean, Like we don't really
even know what what the opportunities are there.

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So Kenna pull a rabbit out of
the house. Pat Sure, I'm

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not sure it's going to happen in
the next nine months or you know,

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by the end of twenty twenty four, and you know, and that's when

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that's why I said, like I
there's nothing wrong with with locking in some

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some gains right up here near the
top. You know that doesn't mean you

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have to unload it back to truck
up. But you know, we've had

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a really good run. It might
be an idea to say, you know,

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do I need to double down?
I don't know that. You know

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00:10:50,039 --> 00:10:54,000
that doesn't make sense from its rating
point of view either. Now, so

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00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:56,960
yeah, well, like you said, you never go broke taking a profit

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on Wall Street, right, That's
right? Right? So, and you

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00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:05,320
know the other thing is that the
numbers that keep coming out, uh,

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you know, you got the manufacturing
uh Purchasing Managers Index that's being that's it

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00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:16,799
every few weeks, it's being released
tomorrow. All the indications are always of

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slowing purchasing all right. Now,
granted, some of the numbers recently have

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00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,080
been better than expected, but even
the better than expected numbers are still on

160
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the slowing purchasing side, right,
So, you know that's telling us that

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00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:37,159
companies aren't expecting growth in the future. So how we're going to maintain this,

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you know, market rally from thirty
five hundred to forty five hundred,

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00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:46,919
forty five hundred, fifty five hundred
with good questions, companies slowing down,

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Like, all right, does that
mean we're going back to thirty five hundred?

165
00:11:50,279 --> 00:11:52,399
Well, not necessarily, but I
find it hard to believe that,

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00:11:52,639 --> 00:11:56,279
you know, we're gonna be able
to, you know, sustain this for

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that length of time, especially if
the FED keeps hammering, you know,

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with interest rates. It makes everything
that's a headwind on everything. How much

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longer do you think the Fed's gonna
keep raising for They're gonna I think they're

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00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:13,639
gonna raise at least another time,
and like they even openly said that,

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00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:20,720
it's just we're gonna keep raising until
we see inflation and essentially the economy in

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a spot where it's going to stay
that way for a length of time.

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So you know, I see at
least another quarter point raise and we'll see

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00:12:30,759 --> 00:12:35,200
from there. You know, it's
it's good. Where are like twenty two

175
00:12:35,279 --> 00:12:39,559
year high an interest rates? Like
yeah, and it's never they've never been

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raised this quickly before, either have
That's that's the problem. We don't We

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don't know, you know, if
we've already broken our back because of the

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quickness that we've done it, that's
that's the real problem. And you unwinding

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00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,799
it just as quickly, which is
certainly not good. But that's not going

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00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:03,559
to fix the problem that fast either. You know, these things take time.

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00:13:03,919 --> 00:13:09,080
Okay, I'll buy it all right, So what is Joe six pack

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00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:13,960
supposed to do here in the media. Well, so everything's waiting to melt

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down on them. Yeah, you
know, it kind of depends on where

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you are in your phase in life, right. A lot of the people

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that we're dealing with a couple of
years away from retirement. The timing is

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00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:30,240
super critical. So you know,
focusing on interest and dividends and income is

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a much more important thing, which
means, hey, whether the stock market

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goes up or down, you don't
want to have to worry about it.

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That's more of our bread and butter. But if you have a little more

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time in there, then there's nothing
wrong with, like I said, taking

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some off the table and having some
ammunition, having some more you know,

192
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,399
bullets in the chamber to take advantage
of corrections. The rich get richer because

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they have cash on the sidelines to
to grab when things go down, right,

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right, you know, So from
that medium range point of you,

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00:14:01,159 --> 00:14:03,120
if you got the time, that's
why I said, lock in some game,

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00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,360
ring the catch register, and that
doesn't mean, you need to close

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00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:11,759
your positions down and you know,
see what happens over the next six eight

198
00:14:11,799 --> 00:14:13,720
months. You know, your worst
case scenario is you you locked in some

199
00:14:13,799 --> 00:14:18,960
gains. Um, right, it
may end up being a good trade.

200
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All right, I'll buy it.
So hey, uh so you know,

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basically act, act while there's still
time, don't wait. You know,

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00:14:30,399 --> 00:14:35,559
Bernard Baruk I'm always reminded, said, uh, you know, basically,

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00:14:35,399 --> 00:14:39,960
uh I got rich letting the other
guy make the last ten percent, right,

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00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,559
yes, yeah, yeah, you
don't need to buy the bottom and

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you don't need to sell the top. Okay, So we got that out

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of the way. So what do
we do here? I mean, we

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want to sell and sell sell in
July and I hope we don't die.

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Is that what to do? Is
um? Yeah, yeah, well almost

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August right. Yeah. Like I
said, I think there's a lot of

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complacency right now because of the summer. People aren't really looking at things hedging,

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you know, like I said,
if I'm looking at it, i'd

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say in the next you know,
I don't know, maybe as a few

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as three months, then maybe a
little short, but six to nine months,

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you know, you could easily see
the stock market back down under the

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SMP five hung back under four thousand, and it wouldn't even you know,

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it wouldn't even blink an eye to
do that. So that's what I was

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saying, is like, if you
can, if you've done some things,

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things that worked for you throughout the
year, right we have you know,

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big down the last year, If
you've you know, move a little bit

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into cash. You know these money
markets are paying four or five percent,

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there's nothing wrong with collecting some interest, right because then the markets, if

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the markets do drop, right now, you can get out of those things

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because interest rates potentially you could either
hold steady or maybe drop. We'll see

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if the Fed's going to break it, right, and then you have a

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reason to get out and then kind
of back in cause now you're buying things

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at a discount. Is there a
trade out there that you could make that's

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going to cover you if the FIT
breaks it or if they don't break it?

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Um? Yeah, I mean if
you really think the Fed's going to

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break it, then then you know
you want to you want to be in

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as much kind of fixed income and
cash as possible, um could. You

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will be generating all that interest while
you know, interest rates are plumbering,

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and then you know you could you
could exit it or keep collecting the income.

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Like I said, that depends on
your phase in life a little bit.

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But you know, there's nothing wrong
at this point in life. There's

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actually another like you know, it's
it's almost sacrilegious to say, right,

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Like, imagine investing in fixed income
as a trade. Uh, there seems

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to be opportunity there. You know, if you're getting a good interest rate,

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if things don't fall mart or they
just go sideways, it's not a

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bad trade. And then if that
we do have a recession, then you're

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gonna be glad you had that.
You know, all right, I'm willing

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to buy it, all right,
James tell us best place to find you

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00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,880
poollock dot com. Poollock dot com. P O L E L O c

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K E great and the link is
in the show notes this interview on Financial

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00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:21,519
Survival Network dot com. If you
got a question for James myself, email

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00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:25,119
is kl at carylots dot com.
Make sure when you go to the site

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00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:29,079
you sign up for the free newsletter. James. Always enlightening, always thought

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00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,920
provoking. We'll catch up with you
again soon. Thanks Gary, Thanks for

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00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:38,240
listening to Carry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.

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00:17:38,559 --> 00:17:45,039
For the latest, go to Financial
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network

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00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:45,960
now more than ever,