1 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,320 We're back with another edition of The Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emily Dashinsky, 2 00:00:20,359 --> 00:00:23,239 culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the show 3 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:27,519 at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on exit fdr LST, 4 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:31,000 make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts, and of course to the 5 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,520 premium version of our website as well. I'm joined today by wan Da vid 6 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:41,600 Rojas, who is a columnist for Compact covering the Iberian Peninsula and Latin America. 7 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,079 He's such a fascinating writer, and as I just learned before we started 8 00:00:46,119 --> 00:00:49,520 taping, it, has a fascinating background. So first of all, welcome 9 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,840 to the show. Thanks for having me on, Hemley, Yeah, of 10 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,079 course. Now, I usually ask people when it's their first time to give 11 00:00:56,159 --> 00:00:59,640 us a little bit of background on their career and all of that. But 12 00:00:59,679 --> 00:01:03,560 as I just mentioned, I've learned in the past like five minutes that your 13 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:08,040 background is exceptionally interesting given what you cover for Compact. I'll just stay right 14 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,000 up here at the top. I think Latin America is a huge blind spot 15 00:01:11,079 --> 00:01:15,000 for conservative media, for American media right at our doorstep. We were talking 16 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:21,200 earlier about how even the sort of nationalist right has a lot of reasons to 17 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,840 dive deeply into the daily news in Latin America, not just because of what 18 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:30,480 nationalism surging nationalism looks like in other countries, but also because of how it 19 00:01:30,519 --> 00:01:36,079 affects our own country. And the border is one part of a massive puzzle. 20 00:01:36,519 --> 00:01:40,319 So just start by telling us a little bit about your background. You've 21 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,760 had experiences that are exceptionally relevant that give you way more insight and perspective than 22 00:01:44,799 --> 00:01:49,560 most people have, and from your master's thesis to work that you've done with 23 00:01:49,599 --> 00:01:53,719 nonprofits. So tell us a little bit about that. Okay, let's see 24 00:01:53,719 --> 00:02:01,159 where to begin. Mayo beginning Columbia. Well, I am Columbian. I'm 25 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:07,879 Columbian American. I was born in Bowata, but my parents came to South 26 00:02:07,879 --> 00:02:12,560 Florida. I grew up in South Florida since yeah, I was three four 27 00:02:12,599 --> 00:02:15,719 years old to really raised here in the US in Broward County, so not 28 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:20,400 quite in Miami, closer to Fort Lauderdom. A lot of Colombians around here. 29 00:02:22,759 --> 00:02:24,719 And yeah, I still live here in a plantation which is a kind 30 00:02:24,759 --> 00:02:34,800 of a suburb of Fort Lauderdom. But I'll start actually ideologically, I guess 31 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:40,400 historically my parents and myself. Yeah, he came from a more like leftist 32 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:52,599 background. We're kind of yeah, center left, generally supporting Democrats over time. 33 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,400 What's funny is that I like to say that going to university, I 34 00:02:55,439 --> 00:03:00,960 went to the University of Florida moved me more to the right or to the 35 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:06,319 center, depending on the issues. I like to say that I'm more centrist, 36 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,719 yeah, even right wing on social issues that have evolved on different things 37 00:03:09,719 --> 00:03:14,759 over time. So in any economics, I like to say that I'm more 38 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:19,039 populist or left of center, which is good because that's kind of the line 39 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:25,240 of combat, right. So yeah, and I I'm twenty eight So I 40 00:03:25,319 --> 00:03:32,400 went to UF in my bachelor's between twenty fourteen and twenty eighteen. So this 41 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:38,560 was like the hallmark of the Great Wokening. And yeah, just a lot 42 00:03:38,599 --> 00:03:46,319 of things really turned me off, you know, the twenty sixteen twenty twenty 43 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:52,319 elections. Trump coming on the scene. I was never a huge fan of 44 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:53,520 Trump, but he did, and you know, like all of us make 45 00:03:53,639 --> 00:03:58,879 us reevaluate a lot of key things, and you just notice things like wait 46 00:03:58,879 --> 00:04:01,639 a minute, what the hell, Like this guy's a protectionist, Like this 47 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,159 is the physician of Democrats not so long ago, and like what's going on 48 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:12,719 here stuff like that. But let's see. After I completed my bachelor's in 49 00:04:12,759 --> 00:04:18,839 political science and I did a lot of work on Latin America involved in the 50 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:25,759 Center for Latin American Studies at UF, I went on to work in Maniji, 51 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,920 Columbia with a professor of mine. There she was doing a study on 52 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:39,759 community policing in the city and I was a resident the term was resident assistant. 53 00:04:40,439 --> 00:04:46,959 So it was a really good job out to me like normal people of 54 00:04:46,959 --> 00:04:49,920 all walks of life in the city, as well as police officers, a 55 00:04:49,959 --> 00:04:55,120 profession I really come to respect because of that job. Did that for like 56 00:04:55,120 --> 00:05:00,199 a year and a half two years, went back and did my masters in 57 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:11,480 Latin American Studies at UF and after graduating there, yes, started writing for 58 00:05:11,759 --> 00:05:15,240 different publications, a lot of them. Yeah on the right. My first 59 00:05:15,319 --> 00:05:18,920 piece I wrote for The American Conservative, which I've always liked for a long 60 00:05:18,959 --> 00:05:27,680 time because of its realists and tradition and opposition to the Iraq War and yeah, 61 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:38,240 that's kind of nationalist, protective, protectionist perspective. And eventually started writing 62 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:44,279 for American Affairs publication. I really respected behind me, uh, and that 63 00:05:44,519 --> 00:05:50,360 actually through them, So Rob ended up quoting me quoting a peace of mind 64 00:05:50,399 --> 00:05:56,759 in American affairs on Mexico, and the rest is kind of history. Ended 65 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:01,240 up becoming a columnist at Compact last year and writing extensively on Latin America all 66 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:08,639 sorts of subjects, elections, energy, industrial policy, stuff like that. 67 00:06:10,959 --> 00:06:13,759 Yeah, go ahead, go ahead, Yeah. But the last thing is 68 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:21,199 that through that, up until the beginning of last year, I also worked 69 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:28,040 in immigration, actually as a social worker with what are called UCS unaccompanied children. 70 00:06:28,079 --> 00:06:35,079 Those are kids who come here without parents or guardians and so then are 71 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:40,680 released to what are called sponsors. Most of the time they're family members, 72 00:06:42,079 --> 00:06:46,720 but a lot of times they can be strangers that just agree to take them 73 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,000 in. And so the job of the social worker would be to just make 74 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:53,639 sure that they're enrolled in school because by a law Florida, for instance, 75 00:06:53,639 --> 00:06:59,120 you have to be in school until age sixteen. And you know that they 76 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,000 have a roof over their heads, are not being traffic which is a huge 77 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:09,360 problem with the UCS, and yeah, they have food, running water, 78 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:14,639 electricity, stuff like that. You teach them how to monitor their core cases 79 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,680 with their a number I'm sure you know a lot about this, and really 80 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:26,920 seeing how our immigration system works or doesn't work as also, Yeah, kind 81 00:07:26,959 --> 00:07:30,040 of colored my perspective on the subject. I've become much more of a border 82 00:07:30,079 --> 00:07:38,519 hawk. The funny thing is that I actually never had two strong opinions on 83 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:43,959 immigration. It was kind of you know, and didn't really go too much 84 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,279 one way or the other. As an immigrant. Yeah, yeah, exactly. 85 00:07:47,319 --> 00:07:51,000 I mean, you know, I didn't really think that illegal immigration was 86 00:07:51,079 --> 00:07:56,240 great. Also kind of understood where some of the migrants were coming from. 87 00:07:56,279 --> 00:08:01,240 And yeah, definitely that's still the case based on work and immigration. But 88 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:07,720 just what's happening now, and we were talking about this earlier, the way 89 00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:13,800 our asylum system just is completely insane. It's come to a breaking point. 90 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:18,240 We have to do something about this, and we can go on a bit 91 00:08:18,279 --> 00:08:22,480 more at length. Yeah, no, I mean it's interesting again, as 92 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,480 somebody with experience, who say a lot of people myself included, you know, 93 00:08:26,519 --> 00:08:30,720 I've been to Mexico and everything, but it's there's a lot of people, 94 00:08:30,839 --> 00:08:33,879 especially I think on the left, who haven't done the reading on this 95 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,519 and certainly don't actually understand the nuances when you kind of peel back the layers. 96 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,039 You realize that what you're supporting when you support an open border, the 97 00:08:41,039 --> 00:08:46,639 facto open border is mass human trafficking, industrial scale human trafficking. And your 98 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,600 experience, I'm curious about this as a social worker, actually was at a 99 00:08:50,639 --> 00:08:58,519 time when people were children were being hired at these meat processing plants and factories 100 00:08:58,519 --> 00:09:01,080 around the country. The New York Times ended up doing a big expose a 101 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,399 on it piece. Actually yeah, but it's been basically the only piece of 102 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:09,080 major reporting so Rob has covered this pretty well, but one of the only 103 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:15,279 major pieces of reporting on something that is a vast apparatus running the country and 104 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:20,200 in some respect through a manufacturing sector. I guess I'm just curious, you 105 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:28,000 know how watching that and watching media coverage of that, know how informed do 106 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,320 you think the average American is on what's actually happening? Not at all. 107 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:35,639 I mean, everyone's just in their part of some and echo chambers. It's 108 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,919 really hard to get to the bottom. I mean something I've noticed. This 109 00:09:39,039 --> 00:09:41,399 might be conspiratorial to say, but when I try to research a lot of 110 00:09:41,399 --> 00:09:46,840 these issues, finding good data, it's incredible. Recent data is a lot 111 00:09:46,879 --> 00:09:52,360 harder to come by. It's a lot harder to analyze and really bad at 112 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,919 it too. I mean they intentionally are not releasing a lot of these numbers. 113 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,639 Yeah, that's my opinion as well. You look up you know, 114 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,720 let's a like border criss crossings, and some of the first results will be 115 00:10:01,759 --> 00:10:09,000 results from years ago. It's it's a you you have to go to homeland 116 00:10:09,039 --> 00:10:11,960 securities like actual pages and kind of parts of the data month to month. 117 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:20,080 It's it's it's really infuriating. And I mean, you know, like Democrats 118 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:24,000 will get upset that, you know, Republicans will toss around terms like open 119 00:10:24,039 --> 00:10:31,120 borders. I mean, sure, it's not completely open in the sense that 120 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:35,960 you can entirely you know, there's some procedure to an extent, but in 121 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:41,279 practice they decriminalize border crossings. I mean, yeah, you have to use 122 00:10:41,279 --> 00:10:45,960 a little app and whatever. But I mean it's not an exaggeration, like 123 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:50,360 we can quibble over semantics. But and and another thing too, is that 124 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,559 it's true and you see this all over the world. This is a point 125 00:10:54,600 --> 00:11:00,399 I've made after the pandemic, obviously, you know, immigration all over the 126 00:11:00,399 --> 00:11:03,159 world went down to zero. It was going to go up no matter what. 127 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,080 And Europe has seen a huge migration wave as well. But the current 128 00:11:07,159 --> 00:11:13,120 policy of parole and just you know, anyone who comes here is automatically eligible 129 00:11:13,159 --> 00:11:18,320 for asylum is completely insane. Obviously, it's an incentive for people to come 130 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:26,600 here. The Biden administration just poured kerosene on an already expanding fire. How 131 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:31,919 dare you suggest that the anything to do with it? And of course I 132 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:33,639 don't know if this is the case for you. You talk to migrants and 133 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,960 some of them will in fact say Biden dragged us up here, and they 134 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,759 won't say it like that, but that the Biden administrations and the anticipation of 135 00:11:41,799 --> 00:11:46,360 the Biden administration's policies were a pull factor. Yeah. So I'm actually, 136 00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:50,360 we have an election coming up in Mexico and you've covered for Compact AMLO and 137 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:56,759 the his party is going to stay in power, and it's basically a a 138 00:11:56,799 --> 00:12:01,600 certain certitude at this point. Via Claudia Shinebaumb and Trump had a very different 139 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,399 relationship with OMLA than Biden did. Just from the perspective of somebody in the 140 00:12:05,519 --> 00:12:11,840 US, how do you think the shinebaumb administration with the combination potentially of a 141 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:18,000 Trump administration, what would negotiations Because there's something very personal about Trump's relationship with 142 00:12:18,039 --> 00:12:26,000 Omlo, that they kind of had that populist personal connection. Claudia Steinbaum is 143 00:12:26,039 --> 00:12:28,960 a rather very character. Yeah, tell us about this, tell us about 144 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:35,879 this. Yeah. So it's funny because and I listened to the podcast you 145 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:41,480 did with Jpu Desmin, who's a friend of mine, and he's really in 146 00:12:41,519 --> 00:12:43,480 the know with a lot of you know, right wingers in Latin America, 147 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:50,240 A lot of them, like Milay or Bouquetle have this incredible outreach, especially 148 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,000 online, but not just online, with conservatives in the US and all over 149 00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:58,919 the world, in Spain and other Latin American countries. Uh, Omlo, 150 00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:03,879 I mean, he's a really old school politician, and he's old, he's 151 00:13:03,879 --> 00:13:09,279 like seventy seventy one. The guy's outreach is horrendous, not even just on 152 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:13,279 the right, but on the left. You think that he would milk this 153 00:13:13,399 --> 00:13:18,960 good relationship with Trump for something, but the press that he gets and conservative 154 00:13:18,039 --> 00:13:22,960 media is horrendous, so much so that a lot of conservatives don't know that 155 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:28,879 these guys were and still are friends. Tom Loo is the only leftist leader 156 00:13:28,919 --> 00:13:33,799 in Latin America that on the daily and his daily press conference is criticized as 157 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:41,320 the law fair WHI it's against Donald Trump, And you know, it's complicated. 158 00:13:41,759 --> 00:13:48,720 Mexico and the US have fundamentally different interests when it comes to different things. 159 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,720 We can go into that, but as far as Shane Baum is concerned, 160 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:58,519 she you know, she's an academic and has a long leftist history. 161 00:14:00,279 --> 00:14:05,440 Was she protested in the nineteen sixty eight of protests with her parents, or 162 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:09,840 maybe she's not that older, it was just her parents, But in any 163 00:14:09,919 --> 00:14:15,080 case, she's has a long history involved with student movements, studied here in 164 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,759 the United States. She was the mayor of Mexico City. To be fair, 165 00:14:18,799 --> 00:14:22,919 Amla was also previously mayor of Mexico City between two thousand and two thousand 166 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:28,840 and five. But they have very different profiles, almost kind of a machine 167 00:14:28,879 --> 00:14:37,879 politician. And he's from the country south, more rural and frankly conservative at 168 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:43,440 least socially conservative area of the state of Gospel, very oil rich state as 169 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:48,879 well. Shanebaum is from the Capital and she's much more progressive in the conventional 170 00:14:48,919 --> 00:14:54,840 sense. So yeah, she was a champion of LGBT issues in the Capital. 171 00:14:56,759 --> 00:14:58,919 She served on like a UN panel on climate she was going to ask 172 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,200 she's kind of she's you in like World Economic Forum, kind of Davos adjacent 173 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,519 in the way, but I wouldn't necessarily say a World Economic Forum. She 174 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:13,240 I think that it will be. We won't really know until she comes into 175 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:18,279 office. There's a lot of institutional momentum from her party and coming from AMLO 176 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:22,120 in the left and in Latin America in Mexico there could keep her on the 177 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,639 right track, but it's an open question. The other the other thing is 178 00:15:26,679 --> 00:15:31,879 we'll have to see exactly how influential AMLO will continue to be once he's left 179 00:15:31,919 --> 00:15:39,159 office. But yeah, yeah, I think it's a mixed bag as far 180 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,679 as what relations with the US could be. She's kind of just towed the 181 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,480 party line, and in general, that's my sense. A lot of what 182 00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:50,679 she says is just kind of to please the boss. So she said that 183 00:15:50,879 --> 00:15:54,759 she doesn't care if it's Biden or Trump, She's going to look to have 184 00:15:54,840 --> 00:16:02,559 good relations. Who knows. On the other hand, and I tweeted about 185 00:16:02,559 --> 00:16:07,120 this, I thought this was a very promising development. Ramon de la Fuente, 186 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:12,080 who was I think Mexico's ambassador to the UN and is rumored to be 187 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:19,399 a strong candidate for Foreign Minister Secretary of State in Mexico. He actually openly 188 00:16:19,399 --> 00:16:23,759 came out and criticized US asylum policy, saying that it was a huge impediment 189 00:16:25,159 --> 00:16:27,879 to reducing border crossings. That anyone who just crosses the border into the US 190 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:33,279 is automatically eligible for asylum. That to me is a good sign of practicism. 191 00:16:34,279 --> 00:16:38,879 Hopefully we'll see some of that. I don't know, yes, it'll 192 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:44,759 remain to be seen. Maybe some of just the Yeah, having people from 193 00:16:44,799 --> 00:16:52,720 AMLO's administration could really help with a Trump turn. How much does it cost 194 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,480 to live in your state? Watched Out on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski. 195 00:16:56,559 --> 00:17:00,120 Every day, Chris helps unpack the connection between politics and the economy and 196 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,320 how it affects your wile. New study show it costs a family of four 197 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:07,400 over one hundred and seventy seven thousand dollars to live comfortably. Massachusetts it's over 198 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:12,519 three hundred thousand dollars. Government continues to put their hands in one industry after 199 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,759 another, whether it's happening in DC or down on Wall Street, it's affecting 200 00:17:15,799 --> 00:17:18,960 you financially. Be informed. Check out the Watchdot on Wall Street podcast with 201 00:17:19,039 --> 00:17:26,079 Chris Markowski on Apple Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, and even just 202 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,759 focusing on the economics, because I want to move you to take a little 203 00:17:30,799 --> 00:17:33,839 tour of Latin America at some point here. Because you've written so well on 204 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:38,880 the dr You've written on Colombia, I think you've written on Ecuador, You've 205 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:44,400 weighed in on this, but the economics of Mexico under Omlo are a really 206 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:49,359 really important piece of this puzzle and understanding who's empower in Mexico, why they're 207 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,359 in power in Mexico, and could you tell us just a little bit about 208 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,400 how he's how the Mexican people. You wrote about this in compact, it 209 00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,440 was a great piece how the Mexican people see Omlow And you know, certainly 210 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:07,039 Shrine bumb will be expected to continue a whole lot of those policies. He 211 00:18:07,839 --> 00:18:11,960 Amo was one of the most popular democratic leaders in the world. By some 212 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:18,359 accounts. He has an approval rating between sixty and seventy percent. It's funny 213 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:22,880 because you look at his electoral base, who supports him. I mean, 214 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,960 in Mexico, he's a lot more popular overall than Trump is in the United 215 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:33,799 States, but the profile of voters is similar. He's popular with the working 216 00:18:33,839 --> 00:18:37,400 class, with rural voters. Actually, he's popular with the elderly, which 217 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,799 is very strange for a leftists. I guess it helps that he comes from 218 00:18:41,839 --> 00:18:48,640 a rural background and is older himself. But really the like Trump, he's 219 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:56,240 a protectionist and they both renegotiated the NAFTA end of the USMCA. That was 220 00:18:56,279 --> 00:19:03,319 actually purportedly one of the their first interactions together where they really got along and 221 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:07,440 saw a lot of points of agreements. Although hated n aft was a decades 222 00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:14,039 long critic of the trade agreement. But his popularity really comes from bread and 223 00:19:14,079 --> 00:19:18,759 butter issues. He's a huge champion of labor. A lot of critics and 224 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,440 international and domestic media will say, oh, it's just because of the welfare. 225 00:19:22,519 --> 00:19:29,200 Yeah, he has expanded welfare. Interestingly, though he's generally been a 226 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:33,680 deficit hawk as well, and public spending overall has not gone up that much 227 00:19:33,759 --> 00:19:38,359 under his term, but it's been more concentrated in specific areas. Investment in 228 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,920 the infrastructure. He has all these huge projects such as an oil refinery in 229 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:48,400 his home state and the train Yeah. Yeah, and yeah, he's a 230 00:19:48,519 --> 00:19:53,759 big on energy sovereignty, loves oil. He comes from one of Mexico's chief 231 00:19:53,799 --> 00:20:03,519 oil producing states of But the key thing is that, and I mentioned this 232 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,400 in my piece from this week on the Dominican Republic. He's made raising the 233 00:20:07,799 --> 00:20:12,319 minimum wage by huge increments, like twenty eight to twenty five percent every year 234 00:20:12,839 --> 00:20:18,039 a staple of his administration. And so the purchasing power of Mexicans has gone 235 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:26,160 up exponentially. Average wages have gone up like one hundred percent. In contrary 236 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,240 to you know we'll hear from economists, it hasn't led to either increased unemployment 237 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,759 or higher inflation. Inflation is about the same today in Mexico as it was 238 00:20:34,799 --> 00:20:37,599 when he took office, even with the pandemic. And why do you think 239 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:42,720 that is? Has he been savvy about attracting businesses as an industrial policy. 240 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,880 I'm sure some of our listeners will disagree with diagnoses on either side, But 241 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,480 from your perspective uncovering this, what have you seen? You know a lot 242 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,240 of it is, some of it has nothing to do with him, And 243 00:20:55,319 --> 00:20:57,160 a lot of critics will say that, oh, you know, Mexico near 244 00:20:57,319 --> 00:21:03,559 shore and it's manufacturing boom and booming in spite of omload, not because of 245 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,720 him. That's partially true. I mean, I think whoever it would have 246 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,039 been in office, the would be a near shoring boom. Because of these 247 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:15,559 rising geopolitical tensions with China, we've seen a lot of trade redirected to Vietnam 248 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:22,279 and other countries that d are. Actually that said, for a leftist, 249 00:21:22,319 --> 00:21:29,599 he's been very very responsible with the country's finances. You look at Mexico compared 250 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,319 to even right That was an amazing sentence, by the way. Yeah, 251 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,359 yeah, for a leftist. Well, I mean, to be fair, 252 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:44,319 in Latin America, there are a lot of fairly responsible leftists with economics in 253 00:21:45,319 --> 00:21:49,319 Chile and in other countries, but there are really the cartoonish ones like in 254 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:57,720 Argentina and then Venezuela and Nicaragua, et cetera. But even relative to conservative 255 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:07,359 countries like Brazil under Bolsonaro, the OMLO has been very very frugal overall during 256 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,759 this term. There's more spending now in twenty twenty four because of the election, 257 00:22:12,839 --> 00:22:18,799 but it's an interesting little data point on him. Yeah, and that's 258 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,240 on that note. Well, actually, I want to stay there for one 259 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:27,640 second just to say to ask I'm curious as to how from people I've heard 260 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,839 Mexico experts, some of them will say that, you know, for Amlo, 261 00:22:33,599 --> 00:22:37,680 immigration up through Mexico is sort of a second tier priority. He has 262 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,519 the economic priorities of his own people, He has the security of his own 263 00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:45,359 people, energy policies, all of that kind of on front and center on 264 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,200 his radar, and you know, what's happening at his border with the United 265 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:55,440 States is really not the top concern. What's interesting to that about that to 266 00:22:55,519 --> 00:22:59,119 me is that you know, you also talk to people who have covered what 267 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,839 Todd Bensman is coined, the super Highway up through the Latin America in Mexico, 268 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,799 and some people will say, you know, David Agrin is really good 269 00:23:07,839 --> 00:23:11,920 example of this journal space in Mexico City that there's an economy built up around 270 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:18,559 the super highway. They are there are fruit stands, NGOs. So how 271 00:23:18,599 --> 00:23:23,519 does that factor into even just having labor around, you know, being paid 272 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:30,119 in cash around Matamoras or whatever, how does that or migrant camps around, 273 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,319 not camps, but migrants in the South that are coming and maybe have to 274 00:23:33,319 --> 00:23:37,279 stay in waite or with remain in Mexico. You had a lot of people 275 00:23:37,319 --> 00:23:42,000 remaining in Mexico. How does that factor into the challenge of the economy for 276 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:47,400 Omlo and his party. There's a lot of levels to this, and you 277 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:52,839 see this actually in other Latin American countries as well. What are the incentives 278 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:59,559 for Mexico here, And that's kind of the one of the central points so 279 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,559 that peace I wrote for Compact in March. I think I think it's called 280 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:12,119 the onload Trump BroMans. From Mexico's perspective, you know, what's the easiest 281 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:18,920 solution to the migration problem with the US? Do nothing? These are a 282 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,279 bunch of foreigners, mostly foreigners. There are Mexicans across the border obviously, 283 00:24:22,759 --> 00:24:25,839 although a lot of them returned. You know, they live in border communities. 284 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:33,759 But you know, normal Mexicans resent. Hey, you know the US 285 00:24:33,839 --> 00:24:37,880 is controlling us to stop all these migrants from other countries from entering their country. 286 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,519 Hey, we're you know, we're a poor country. We have other 287 00:24:41,599 --> 00:24:48,119 needs. This isn't our problem, it is their problem. But on the 288 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:52,359 other hand, Mexico actually does have a lot more interest in stopping migrants at 289 00:24:52,359 --> 00:25:00,000 their southern border. Why as migrants work their way up to the United States, 290 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,039 and not all of them do, they do compete with native workers in 291 00:25:03,079 --> 00:25:10,039 Mexico, and that creates a lot of resentment. Anti immigration sentiment in Mexico, 292 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:11,720 as in other Latin American countries, if you look at Poles, has 293 00:25:11,759 --> 00:25:17,319 gone up immensely. There are polls that show that sixty plus percent of Mexicans 294 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:22,799 do not want more Central Americans or Haitians entering their country. Why is that 295 00:25:22,079 --> 00:25:26,519 Why? Yeah, I mean a lot of them, especially Venezuelans, because 296 00:25:26,519 --> 00:25:32,640 Haitians are less likely to be higher because of language barriers and stuff like that. 297 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:37,519 But a lot of them. I lived in Brazil and in other Latin 298 00:25:37,519 --> 00:25:45,839 American countries they might speak Spanish. Yeah, they'll suppress ways competing with native 299 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:51,359 workers. This just makes a lot of sense under Ali. Actually, Mexico 300 00:25:52,039 --> 00:25:53,960 and this set had a lot to do with the back and forth with the 301 00:25:53,960 --> 00:26:03,440 Trump administration. The Mexico agreed to accept a lot more of permanent foreign residents 302 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:08,000 from Central America and other countries Venezuela, like Cuba, thelike. That wasn't 303 00:26:08,039 --> 00:26:14,880 the case for decades. Mexico actually had one of the most restrictive immigration policies 304 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,039 in the world. Up until recent there were more people from Spain and Mexico. 305 00:26:18,039 --> 00:26:25,920 Permanent residents from Spain than from Honduras up until I think, yeah, 306 00:26:26,039 --> 00:26:30,359 like twenty twenty one, and this is really incredible. Today, however, 307 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:38,640 the permanent foreign population has gone up immensely and obviously that's led to more animosities. 308 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:45,480 What I argue in the piece is that and this is similarly the case 309 00:26:45,519 --> 00:26:49,079 if you look at Morocco for instance, or Tunisia and Europe. If you 310 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,559 want a country like Mexico to really clamp down on its northern border, which 311 00:26:53,599 --> 00:26:59,440 are actually currently doing border crossings have gone down a ton. It's kind of 312 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,960 a half measure, or I'll go into a sect. But if you want 313 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,240 Mexico to do something like this, you basically have to pay them number one 314 00:27:07,279 --> 00:27:10,519 to de poor people, and you have to you know, come to the 315 00:27:10,519 --> 00:27:15,279 negotiating table and say, hey, look, please do this for us and 316 00:27:15,319 --> 00:27:19,599 we'll do X for you. This is just you know, normal foreign policy. 317 00:27:19,599 --> 00:27:23,839 And that's why the relationship with Trump and the work. Both of them 318 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:29,559 are transactional leaders, so you know, they came to the negotiating table and 319 00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:33,160 Trump, to be fair, it did strong arm Mexico with tariffs and the 320 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,920 like. But on the other hand, Mexico got a lot of what it 321 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,599 wanted. For instance, in the USMCA and a lot of its energy priorities. 322 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,960 It's something I think is currently now the case with Biden. They did. 323 00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:52,359 Biden is a lot more critical of you know, norms and human rights 324 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,440 and stuff like that in Mexico has a sketchy track record on some of those 325 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:02,599 items. Is something that you know, a nationalist like OMLO really resents. 326 00:28:03,599 --> 00:28:08,759 So really basically like any other country, it's there's this view that, oh, 327 00:28:08,839 --> 00:28:11,279 you know, Mexico, they're you know, beneath us, they need 328 00:28:11,319 --> 00:28:15,400 to do what they what we say, well, they have a lot of 329 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,839 leverage. Actually they can. What what they do on their border does have 330 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:26,799 the ability to impact immigration. Seriously, can I ask you something about the 331 00:28:26,799 --> 00:28:33,519 transactional nature of OMLO and Trump is obviously such a good counterpoint on not counterpoint 332 00:28:33,599 --> 00:28:40,160 counterpart on that. I'm curious what you make of the let's say, intense 333 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:45,240 rumors that's one way to put it about almost connections with Sinaloa. And I 334 00:28:45,279 --> 00:28:51,920 asked that because I always like the calculus for Amelo to not crack down or 335 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:56,400 to you know, he's he's fought with the United States over embedding US law 336 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,640 enforcement in cartels like DEA informants and he doesn't like that stuff. He's pushed 337 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:06,200 back on it sees it as sort of overreaching from a leftist perspective of the 338 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:11,319 overreaching of Mexico's sovereignty or the undermining of Mexico's sovereignty. It seems to me 339 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:18,359 there would be incentive for a populist Mexican politician, both economically and in terms 340 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:25,000 of nationalism, to cut down on some of this cartalic to be open to 341 00:29:25,039 --> 00:29:27,599 remain in Mexico, open to a deal and remain in Mexico, and maybe 342 00:29:27,599 --> 00:29:33,039 he would be in a future Trump administration. But to have a crackdown in 343 00:29:33,319 --> 00:29:36,559 what we see is obviously the opposite of that. What I said probably sounds 344 00:29:36,599 --> 00:29:38,599 naive to people in Mexico because they're like, it's so much more complicated. 345 00:29:38,599 --> 00:29:42,200 Our economy is now completely intertwined with this. What do you make of that? 346 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:56,960 Though it's a it's a complicated issue in that, you know, AMLA 347 00:29:56,039 --> 00:30:03,160 has promoted this policy that's been made fun of called hugs not bullets, And 348 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,119 the funny thing is that with that actually refers to and actually you look at 349 00:30:07,119 --> 00:30:11,599 poles in Mexico, a lot of Mexicans support the policy that doesn't actually mean 350 00:30:11,599 --> 00:30:22,400 they support the overall policy towards security. Security is a chief criticism that average 351 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,519 Mexicans in the opposition have towards the current government, which has been really bad. 352 00:30:26,599 --> 00:30:27,839 Don't don't don't get me wrong, there's really nothing to do there. 353 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:36,599 But that's what with the policy as such of hugs not bullets means is investing 354 00:30:36,799 --> 00:30:41,720 in, you know, local communities with the idea of trying to deter people 355 00:30:41,759 --> 00:30:48,599 from going into crime. It's dubious that that has actually been the case. 356 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:53,359 It's led to better living standards for Mexicans and in terms of wages, but 357 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:59,559 yeah, crime is still a serious problem. According to government figures, has 358 00:30:59,599 --> 00:31:02,920 been a slow light reduction, but there are other people that dispute because there's 359 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:08,799 still a lot of disappearances, whether or not homicides of a state have been 360 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:15,400 essentially stagnant. That said, what's funny is that you look at progressive critiques 361 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:25,240 of Homlow and what you'll see a lot is this critique over militarization that actually 362 00:31:25,359 --> 00:31:30,799 he's empowered the military, he created the National Guard. The funny thing is 363 00:31:30,799 --> 00:31:37,039 that the National Guard there they've been deployed a lot more than in past governments, 364 00:31:37,359 --> 00:31:40,759 and the military has been deployed a lot more to fight crime, but 365 00:31:40,839 --> 00:31:47,119 they've made less arrests and seizures of drugs, so it's kind of something hard 366 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,559 to part. There's still a lot of violence, and it's not to say 367 00:31:48,599 --> 00:31:53,920 that security forces are completely you know, sitting on their hands, but the 368 00:31:55,000 --> 00:32:00,319 strategy has changed. What the current government thinks is that if they instead of 369 00:32:00,359 --> 00:32:07,279 confronting them head on, try to go for a alternative means just trying to 370 00:32:07,319 --> 00:32:13,440 stop violence as opposed to foment it, it's a better strategy. You know, 371 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,519 you can critique that as you wish. It is true, however, 372 00:32:16,759 --> 00:32:22,720 that the current violence that we see in Mexico really started because of militarization. 373 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:29,720 In two thousand and seven, Fittie picandern in concert you know, with the 374 00:32:29,799 --> 00:32:34,759 DEA and US intelligence agencies were really happy about this, declared a war on 375 00:32:34,799 --> 00:32:38,000 the cartels and really brought out the military to fight them head on. This 376 00:32:38,119 --> 00:32:44,880 led to an explosion of violence. Homicides like quadrupled and have stayed stagnant ever 377 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:50,079 since. That's something that on loop and left us in Mexico point two all 378 00:32:50,119 --> 00:32:52,680 the time. They're right, it's just well, things haven't gotten any better. 379 00:32:54,359 --> 00:32:58,720 Yeah, that makes a lot of sense, and take us now on 380 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:04,440 this tour of Latinum America because there's some really important developments. You know, 381 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,319 a lot of people merely got a lot of coverage in Argentina, obviously, 382 00:33:07,559 --> 00:33:13,000 and the left is especially focused on Brazil, although the right has been fairly 383 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,960 focused on Brazil more than more than usual over the sort of course of the 384 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:21,480 Bolsonara reign and now with the Brazil files from Michael Schallenberger and all of that. 385 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,799 But I'm curious, maybe let's start in the DR will work our way 386 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,960 south, because you just had a really good piece on what's going on in 387 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:34,559 the Dominican Republic and if people aren't cued into the way that the DR has 388 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,920 had to handle the crisis in Haiti and literally going back hundreds of years, 389 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:43,640 it's like an incredibly fascinating story. But that plays into what you were writing 390 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,759 about. So could you just maybe give us a bit of insight based on 391 00:33:46,799 --> 00:33:52,200 the piece that you wrote here. Yeah, that's a topic for a whole 392 00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,960 other article. Actually, the editor is a contract. I had more written, 393 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:59,519 but they said that I would really be more warranted a whole piece for 394 00:33:59,599 --> 00:34:06,279 the topic. There's a huge you know, I mean funny. Yeah, 395 00:34:06,319 --> 00:34:10,800 a lot of people don't know Haiti invaded the Dominican Republic, not during the 396 00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:16,440 nineteenth century. Uh In Haiti. For a time, there was some signs 397 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:22,159 that we could have ended up being at least similar to the DR in terms 398 00:34:22,199 --> 00:34:29,960 of development. Up until nineteen sixty the two countries had similar rates of per 399 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:36,159 capita GDP, stuff like that, poverty. What happened was the Dominican Republic 400 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,960 really tip off, and Haiti hasn't remained more or less stagnant. There's a 401 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:44,400 lot of incredible story, by the way, like this this moment, as 402 00:34:44,559 --> 00:34:50,239 with Haiti's entire history, but you had this moment of like black colonialism. 403 00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:52,440 Yeah, yeah, exacting the French into the d I mean it was just 404 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:57,880 incredible. Yeah, it's I mean, it's a fascinating country with a tragic 405 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,719 history. I mean, you know, the first black republic when independence as 406 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:07,800 a slave revolt and has just been destroyed by the US and France. Is 407 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,679 not to say that this is a good conversation for us to have too as 408 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:15,880 to how much we can or should blame the US for different problems, not 409 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,599 just in Latin America but in other countries. A lot of leftists like to 410 00:35:20,599 --> 00:35:22,760 say, oh, it's sold the US, blah blah blah blah. The 411 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:24,800 US isn't a really bad things, don't get me wrong, but when you 412 00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:30,840 take it to a point where you just remove agency from local actors, that's 413 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:36,679 also not helpful. And I think conservatives should push back on that though. 414 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,719 They should recognize you a lot of the history in the region. And sorry 415 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:46,400 for the my little interruption there. I just you know, when you dive 416 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:53,199 into this Spanish and the French in this in this particular area, it's in 417 00:35:53,199 --> 00:35:58,559 incredible history. And you know the situation between Haiti and the d R right 418 00:35:58,599 --> 00:36:00,840 now, this is where interrupted you. You're going on, this is still 419 00:36:01,079 --> 00:36:05,519 to some extent informed by it, like the literal wall between two of them. 420 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,000 Yeah yeah, I mean the current government is building an actual Trump style 421 00:36:09,119 --> 00:36:15,320 border wall with Haiti, and you know the morality of this, it's really 422 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,800 messed up. But it's a lose lose situation. Haiti is a failed state. 423 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,719 I don't blame anyone who tries to leave the country is completely controlled by 424 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:30,360 gangs. That said, you know, you look at both the DR and 425 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:35,000 Haiti, both of them have similar populations around ten million. There are poles 426 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,800 that say that eighty four percent of Haitians would leave if they could. If 427 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:43,760 you do, if the DR had the same policy as Colombia has had with 428 00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,519 Venezuela, the DR would just collapse. I mean, they already have a 429 00:36:47,559 --> 00:36:52,719 million Haitians living in the DR. And there's a long history of persecution and 430 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:59,119 racism against Haitians in the DR, which is funny because most Dominicans are very 431 00:36:59,159 --> 00:37:06,960 dark skinned. And yeah, like ten years ago, the Supreme Court retroactively 432 00:37:07,039 --> 00:37:10,440 took away citizenship from a lot of Dominicans of Haitian descent. That was a 433 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:19,840 horrific decision. The aUI and I are the current president, last year deported 434 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:24,199 almost two hundred thousand Haitian migrants. But yeah, at the same time, 435 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:29,519 as I said, there's only so much one country can take, and it 436 00:37:29,599 --> 00:37:34,039 might be a richer country by comparison, but this leads to negative outcomes if 437 00:37:34,039 --> 00:37:37,119 you just let in too many people, It suppresses a wager, it leads 438 00:37:37,159 --> 00:37:44,760 to concerns from citizens over crime. Rightfully, so it's a terrible, yeah 439 00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:52,480 situation. And while we're on this topic of root causes, as the administration, 440 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,480 Kamala Harris I would say and actually you and I were direct messaging a 441 00:37:55,559 --> 00:38:00,960 bet on Twitter or x or whatever about a conversation that my colleague at Breaking 442 00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:02,599 Points, ra Angrim, and I had with Beto o'rouric. Good talk, 443 00:38:02,639 --> 00:38:06,360 good tar. Recommend everyone check it out. Thank you, thank you. 444 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,400 It was. I was very flattered to hear that you enjoyed it because you 445 00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:14,079 have, you know, such an insight here. And I'm just curious about 446 00:38:14,559 --> 00:38:20,800 when we're talking we go further south down to Colombia and Ecuador and some of 447 00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,880 these the way that some of these countries are grappling with a lot of actually 448 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:28,159 a lot of Americans, I think don't realize that the lack of stability in 449 00:38:28,199 --> 00:38:35,079 these countries is now caused by empowering of cartels, that Mexico Sinaloa has presence 450 00:38:35,079 --> 00:38:39,880 in Ecuador, that you know, there's huge, huge influence of that instability. 451 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:44,679 That the open border de facto open border in the United States. Every 452 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:49,639 single person I saw a video of Bill Malugin yesterday asking what like Syrian or 453 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,079 Jordanian migrants, you know, if they paid, they said ten thousand dollars 454 00:38:52,159 --> 00:38:57,000 a person. So ten thousand dollars is not Trump change. And every single 455 00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,719 person that is crossing the border has paid that every single day for the most 456 00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:06,119 part. So that's huge, huge amounts of money going to these now industrial 457 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:14,000 organizations that are completely wreaking havoc in countries from Columbia, Ecuador to everywhere basically 458 00:39:14,039 --> 00:39:17,480 under us. You know, people in Costa Rica are now having issues with 459 00:39:17,599 --> 00:39:22,840 this, you know that's creeping in there. So tell us a little bit 460 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,440 about maybe Colombia specifically, and then maybe we can move on to Ecuador, 461 00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,239 maybe it maybe it makes sense to mention both, just depending on what you 462 00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:34,960 want to do here, but maybe tell us about how these crises, the 463 00:39:35,039 --> 00:39:43,719 confluence of drugs and violence are le changing politics in places like Colombia. Yeah, 464 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:49,960 it's Colombia is interesting because there's currently a coca crash, although I should 465 00:39:50,039 --> 00:39:53,800 check on whether the price is recovered. Between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty 466 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:58,519 three, the price of coca, the raw ingredient, the raw crop used 467 00:39:58,559 --> 00:40:02,280 to make cocaine, limitted by as much as like fifty percent, and there 468 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:06,960 were a lot of there was a lot of speculation as to whether maybe it 469 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,159 was over overproduction of cocaine. During the pandemic. You know, borders were 470 00:40:10,199 --> 00:40:19,199 closed and so traffickers just overproduced and now they have this supply that they that 471 00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,920 has brought down the price of raw coca. On the other hand, there's 472 00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:27,840 a lot more consumption of synthetic drugs here in the US. What's happened, 473 00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,360 and this is why Ecuador has spiraled out of control. There's a lot more 474 00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:38,719 interest from traffickers to send their product to europe Asian markets, and so Ecuador 475 00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:45,840 has become a really really appealing country for traffickers. It's kind of a you 476 00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:52,679 see a kind of proxy war where Mexico's two biggest cartels, Sinaloa and CJ 477 00:40:52,840 --> 00:41:01,920 ANDNG kind of have sponsored the the Ecuadorian gangs Tornado has sent others which takes 478 00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:07,519 sides and then you know, move all over the place between their various patrens. 479 00:41:07,599 --> 00:41:14,639 The Albanian mafia is really involved in Ecuador. There's so many illicit economies 480 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:23,480 to gold, illicit gold mining, human trafficking, and all these various different 481 00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:30,159 armed, armed and criminal groups have their hands all over this and Colombia because 482 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:36,079 the cocaine trade has kind of taken a hit, which isn't to say that 483 00:41:36,119 --> 00:41:40,719 they're still not exporting a lot of cocaine. A lot of armed groups have 484 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:47,280 moved into other economies like illegal mining and extortion. So it's it's you know, 485 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:52,239 it's kind of this balloon effect. And you would see this actually during 486 00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:58,039 the two thousands, for instance, that Columbia managed to reduce a lot of 487 00:41:58,039 --> 00:42:02,159 its cocaine production. What happened was it then went up and Peruin and Bolivia. 488 00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,960 So you just kind of push one side and then on the other comes 489 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:13,679 out another end. It's a really complicated issue. I mean, all the 490 00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:17,920 consumption in the US and in Europe. I mean, yeah, so long 491 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:22,320 as I'm going to sound like a libertarian here, it's not to say I 492 00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,599 am a libertarian or agree with them, it's just the reality. But so 493 00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:30,360 long as there's that demand, the supply will always try to match it. 494 00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,840 So it's just an endless rat race. And we've seen that, you know, 495 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:43,199 proposals like decriminalizing drugs, it's not necessarily a good solution, especially if 496 00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:47,199 you tried and the horrendous way that Oregon did it, where they just said, 497 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,920 hey, guys, just shoot up on the streets, and you know, 498 00:42:51,119 --> 00:42:57,719 we said we'd supply treatment that doesn't work. I know, this comes 499 00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:01,880 as a major surprise to everyone that the the Oregonian drug policy has been a 500 00:43:02,159 --> 00:43:07,000 colossal failure. But that's a great point. I'm also curious, actually, 501 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:15,280 how or why it is that you don't have Latin American leaders begging Joe Biden 502 00:43:15,519 --> 00:43:19,239 and the United States to close their damp borders. Is it because of cartel 503 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:24,079 influence in politics? Is it because remittances? Because they want to keep getting 504 00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,719 aid? You know, I looked up when we were talking to Betto, 505 00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:32,199 actually he mentioned something about Guatemala, and I looked at like while we were 506 00:43:32,199 --> 00:43:36,880 talking and looked up the amount of annual aid that we give to Guatemala's an 507 00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,800 obscene amount of money over decades. Just It's absolutely true that what we did 508 00:43:42,199 --> 00:43:47,519 in the fifties with our beds was horrific and had a ripple effect for decades. 509 00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:52,719 But for the last several decades we have been pouring money into the Guatemalan 510 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:57,199 economy. It's not as though America has just left Guatemala behind to fend for 511 00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,360 itself. I mean, the amount of money that we end back there is 512 00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:05,800 incredible. So I'm just curious. Again, it always a brave Latin American 513 00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:09,320 leader. You don't even really see this from Bucele, but a brave Latin 514 00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:14,400 American leader you'd think would have some clear mindedness on this. But again, 515 00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:19,760 maybe that sounds naive from the perspective of an American conservative. Yeah, I 516 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,159 mean, like even for Bouquele, the thing is, a country like El 517 00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:30,679 Salvador is still very dependent on remittances, and actually the number of Salvadorans processing 518 00:44:30,679 --> 00:44:34,719 the border has gone down, but it's still among one of the largest groups. 519 00:44:35,159 --> 00:44:39,280 The largest groups, heah are in equal measure that the Northern Triangle, 520 00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:46,039 Hondura, s Guatemala, El Salvador, then Venezuelan's Cubans, Nicaraguans, Haitians, 521 00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:54,920 of the millions of people that come here every year. But yeah, 522 00:44:55,199 --> 00:45:01,960 I mean a lot of these countries they're so dependent on what uh immigrants in 523 00:45:02,119 --> 00:45:07,880 here in the US send to their families. Closing the border could very negatively 524 00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,119 impact them. You know a lot of conservatives will say that that actually will 525 00:45:10,119 --> 00:45:15,119 give them reason to you know, to uh, you know, develop their 526 00:45:15,159 --> 00:45:20,719 own countries and stuff like that. It's it's complicated. I'm I'm very sympathetic 527 00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:25,960 actually to I think it's infuriating whenever the Biden administration talks about root causes a 528 00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:30,960 lot of progressives go on and on and on about the stuff like Beto, 529 00:45:31,079 --> 00:45:34,360 but I you know, what does it mean when they talk about, oh, 530 00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,840 root causes, let's invest in this. What are they invest in? 531 00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,800 They invest in you know, microcredit startups. Most small businesses fail and like 532 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:46,519 all these NGOs that are just pocketing the money to give to their millionaire president. 533 00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:53,079 I mean, yeah, I talked about this in that Amlo Trump piece. 534 00:45:53,119 --> 00:45:57,800 Omlo talks about you know, he says he wants development in the Northern 535 00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:04,639 Triangle as well, But what's actually development that's useful? Infrastructure, you know, 536 00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:08,400 commitments to labor, manufacturing jobs, that's the kind of stuff we need 537 00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:13,960 to see that that's where age should really be oriented. And in that piece 538 00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:19,599 I brought up the Alliance for Progress, the Kennedy administration's ten year plan in 539 00:46:19,679 --> 00:46:23,039 Latin America. Really good effort, I think, really should be evaluated. 540 00:46:23,079 --> 00:46:30,159 But the interest of the Alliance for Progress was deterring communism by promoting development, 541 00:46:30,559 --> 00:46:37,719 labor, manufacturing, and infrastructure. Those are things that actually would make a 542 00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:42,280 difference, and we would do well from targeting more of our aid to things 543 00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:46,880 that actually would make a difference. In my opinion. What do you make 544 00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:52,800 of biden flirtation with softening sanctions in Cuba, and obviously it's relevant to other 545 00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:57,880 Latin American countries. I like to tell a story when my colleague John Davidson 546 00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,320 and I were in I think There's on a Moros. We were talking to 547 00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:06,679 a young Cuban migrant who was said out of absolutely nowhere, and we had 548 00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,719 like a half an hour conversation with this kid. He was fascinating in a 549 00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:14,039 horrible story. He'd paid like eleven thousand dollars and gotten turned back from the 550 00:47:14,079 --> 00:47:16,599 border twice and ended up texting John in the middle of the night because he 551 00:47:16,679 --> 00:47:20,599 was worried that the cartels had followed him across the river. He tried to 552 00:47:20,599 --> 00:47:23,320 sneak across and was hiding in the bushes literally and trying to get in touch 553 00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:28,599 with the American border patrol. Who could you know, fend off cartels? 554 00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,519 Something like that was the logic. But he, in the middle of the 555 00:47:31,519 --> 00:47:37,239 conversation just turned right to the camera that I was holding and said, Cubans 556 00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:39,559 love the blockade. We Cubans loved the blockade, And in my head I 557 00:47:39,639 --> 00:47:42,920 just thought, you know, eat your heart out right. I grew like 558 00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,079 I'm shore, I need this clip first thing when I get back. What 559 00:47:46,119 --> 00:47:52,559 do you make Definitely speaking about I love the interview you guys did with it, 560 00:47:52,639 --> 00:47:55,559 John Davidson, I listened to some of the podcasts in a new book. 561 00:47:55,679 --> 00:48:00,280 Very interesting action. Thanks. Yeah, yeah, we got an interesting 562 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:04,440 feedback on that segment. John was fantastic. But yeah, so tell us 563 00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,559 about the role that sanctions are playing in some of these economic challenges. Well, 564 00:48:07,639 --> 00:48:12,559 one thing I'll say for listeners. In Spanish, the embargo is referred 565 00:48:12,559 --> 00:48:16,840 to as broke. So that's why the Cuban said blockade that we we you 566 00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:22,400 know, referred to as an embardo, So that's what he meant. Translation. 567 00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:29,239 Yeah, I actually have a a perspective. I think not many people 568 00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:34,840 on the right or the left have. I think the Biden administration's approach towards 569 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:39,599 Venezuela has been a disaster, horrific, no redeeming qualities. Honestly, I 570 00:48:39,639 --> 00:48:46,480 actually liked the spirit of the Barbados agreement, you know, I mean generally 571 00:48:46,559 --> 00:48:51,679 I'm a critic of sanctions policy. I don't think that it does really any 572 00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:53,920 good for anyone, neither of us. It's just a it's just virtual signaling 573 00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:59,199 in my opinion, including with the North Korea ron Russia. You know, 574 00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:04,119 if anything is helped Russia. But you know, I mean, once you 575 00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:10,039 already have these sanctions in place, you actually have some leverage. But the 576 00:49:10,079 --> 00:49:13,039 thing is, you know, if you're going to remove them or give some 577 00:49:13,039 --> 00:49:15,880 sort of relief, you have to get something back in return. And the 578 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:22,440 weakness of the Biden administration has been I mean, it's completely unexcusable. The 579 00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:29,159 Maduro completely has thrown them for a loop. I don't understand what they're thinking. 580 00:49:29,559 --> 00:49:35,199 Was actually Juan Go and Sagres, who was Biden's advisor for Latin America, 581 00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:40,119 resigned recently. I think very likely over the Venezuela policy. Most likely 582 00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:44,920 what they were going for was just the lower oil oil prices, which is 583 00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,960 funny because they just put sanctions back on. They should have put sanctions or 584 00:49:49,039 --> 00:49:53,000 threatened to put sanctions bank on as soon as they were threatening Venezuela was threatening 585 00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:58,320 to invade Guyana and disqualified a lot of these these candidates. What were they 586 00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,039 doing I actually forgot about and it was a major story. That was one 587 00:50:01,039 --> 00:50:05,840 of the times that Latin American music really crept into the American media. The 588 00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,480 drama over the potential Guyana invasion. That was really something. Yeah, I 589 00:50:09,519 --> 00:50:15,360 mean just completely unexplicable. I can't justify anything that they've done. Really. 590 00:50:17,079 --> 00:50:23,239 The funny thing is that what I've said is that the Barbados agreement probably would 591 00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:28,440 have been a lot more useful under a republican administration. The thing is a 592 00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:34,559 republican administration but also never broke an agreement like that. For listeners that aren't 593 00:50:34,599 --> 00:50:39,960 familiar, the idea behind it was that in exchange for reducing some sanctions, 594 00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:45,480 Venezuela would agree to, you know, have international advisors lift bands on opposition 595 00:50:45,599 --> 00:50:50,960 candidates, chiefly Mari Equitina, my child, who's the leader of the opposition, 596 00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:57,360 and would agree to receive US deportees. Now, let's look at the 597 00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:02,199 results. They're all terrible. They removed sanctions for a few months and that 598 00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:08,960 led to increased oil production in Venezuela. They didn't lift the ban on my 599 00:51:09,039 --> 00:51:16,880 child and actually disqualified other up ed leading opposition candidates, and they agreed to 600 00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:22,679 accept deportees. And you know how many people the Bidenn administration deported in the 601 00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:29,800 first three months. It's a laughable number, like ten thousand. So nothing 602 00:51:30,079 --> 00:51:35,320 that was you know, I'm a realist. Nothing that was in the national 603 00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:42,519 interest came of this agreement. On the other hand, I actually agree with 604 00:51:42,559 --> 00:51:45,679 getting rid of sanctions entirely on Cuba. I mean, I think it would 605 00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:49,320 be desirable to, you know, do something similar. You know, if 606 00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:51,679 we're going to do this, you have to do something for us, take 607 00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:58,559 our deporties whatever. They shouldn't just unilaterally left sanctions. But it's clear to 608 00:51:58,599 --> 00:52:04,920 me that beyond even the embargo, what Trump did during the last days of 609 00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,199 his presidency, and I've been meeting to write this, he put Cuba on 610 00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:13,840 the list of state sponsors of terrorism, which is a ridiculous designation. There's 611 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:17,119 no basis for it. It's true in the past Cuba did support you know, 612 00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:22,239 Marxist Gorilla is all over Latin America, and that's why they were originally 613 00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,480 put on the list. Don't they still have, like Chinese and Russian there's 614 00:52:24,519 --> 00:52:28,519 some although I don't know how reliable that reporting is. It could be you 615 00:52:28,559 --> 00:52:34,239 know, CIA planted information, but there's like Russian bases in Cuba or sharing 616 00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:37,639 agreements same with like Veniet. Yeah, yeah, that's that's absolutely true, 617 00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,159 But that doesn't mean that doesn't make them a state sponsor of terrorists. I 618 00:52:40,199 --> 00:52:44,599 mean, they're on there alongside you know, you know, like Iran, 619 00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,239 and it just doesn't make any sense. It's not to say that there are 620 00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:53,760 a friend. But what's happened is that that is completely killed Cuba's tourism industry. 621 00:52:55,039 --> 00:52:59,639 And you can think of that as being which is what the country did 622 00:52:59,639 --> 00:53:01,920 mostly dependent on. Nowadays, you can think of that as a win to 623 00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:05,760 say, oh, you know, this has created a lot of animosity towards 624 00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:09,800 the regime. It's true, the conditions on the island have gone way worse. 625 00:53:10,519 --> 00:53:15,079 Even you know, in a few years ago they were already bad. 626 00:53:15,079 --> 00:53:19,000 They've gotten way worse. But what's the result of this. It's led to 627 00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:24,159 hundreds of thousands of Cubans coming here. If you're a border hug you should 628 00:53:24,199 --> 00:53:29,039 not be in favor of sanctions towards Cuba. The problem with putting them on 629 00:53:29,079 --> 00:53:35,880 that list is that a lot of foreign companies cannot do business with Cuba because 630 00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:40,039 they're a state sponsor of terrorism, and a lot of European otherwise tourists have 631 00:53:40,079 --> 00:53:45,280 been deterred from coming because they actually have to report at the US embassy in 632 00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,760 France. Let's say let's say that they're going to travel to Cuba. If 633 00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:52,400 they ever then want to travel against the US, it's completely insane. Obviously, 634 00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,199 that's going to deter tours from going. And what you see in the 635 00:53:55,239 --> 00:54:00,519 dr and all over the rest of the Caribbean is that after the pandemic towards 636 00:54:00,559 --> 00:54:04,639 massword, the only country where that was not the case is in Cuba. 637 00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:07,360 I don't think that that's a coincidence. What my neighbors will say is that, 638 00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:09,960 oh, you know, it's just communism and the regime, and no 639 00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:13,800 one wants to go to That's nonsense. On the contrary, a lot of 640 00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,320 Europeans like going there because it's a communist country. I'm missing. These are 641 00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:22,239 your Cuban neighbors in the main area in Venezuelan. Yeah, yeah, okay, 642 00:54:22,119 --> 00:54:25,039 But of course they think that because of the rampant disinformation on the radio 643 00:54:25,079 --> 00:54:29,159 stations that the Biden administration is so concerned with, the Biden campaign is so 644 00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:36,000 concerned seeing that the blaming all of the Cuban support for Trump and the Venezuelan 645 00:54:36,039 --> 00:54:40,119 support for Trump on coordinated disinformation. Yeah yeah, I mean, it's just 646 00:54:42,039 --> 00:54:45,960 I think that why Biden hasn'tagued what's funny is that in concrete terms, it's 647 00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:52,039 sure, it's true that what's happened now is because of what Trump did days 648 00:54:52,079 --> 00:54:57,599 before leaving office, but you know it's been enforced under Biden. In practical 649 00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:04,159 terms, the Biden administration is actually inflicted way more damage and been way more 650 00:55:04,159 --> 00:55:08,559 aggressive against the Cuban regime than Trump ever was. So that's just kind of 651 00:55:08,559 --> 00:55:13,719 and then you'd think that, considering what they've done with Venezuela, they tried 652 00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:16,519 something similar. I think that they haven't because they genuinely think they can win 653 00:55:16,559 --> 00:55:20,920 Florida or at least have a chance here. I don't think they do, 654 00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,960 but I guess that's your thinking. Well, just as we're kind of winning 655 00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:31,000 this tank, it's been absolutely fascinating, could you maybe address the broad point 656 00:55:31,159 --> 00:55:37,360 that I've seen some libertarian, kind of Coke affiliated people make. But also 657 00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:43,079 that is the central argument on the left that you know, let's say they're 658 00:55:43,119 --> 00:55:47,079 in principle in favor of relatively open borders. You know, they might say, 659 00:55:47,079 --> 00:55:51,840 we need, you know, some border patrol stations on the border, 660 00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,159 but you know, generally people should have freedom of movement, is how they 661 00:55:54,199 --> 00:56:01,920 put it. Why is that immoral? In the environment that we're working in 662 00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:06,559 right now, meaning why is it, For example, if let's say the 663 00:56:06,599 --> 00:56:12,400 Senate Border bill were enacted and Biden took the executive privilege to make the exceptions 664 00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:16,119 that were built into it and continued to kind of allow all of these asylum 665 00:56:16,199 --> 00:56:22,000 claims to be made without detention, without remain in Mexico, why is that? 666 00:56:23,599 --> 00:56:30,079 Why is the result of that necessarily going to be more human trafficking, 667 00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:37,159 more suffering, rather than a safer, more orderly process with more funded asylum 668 00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:39,559 judges, more border patrol. This is a leading question. You may disagree 669 00:56:39,599 --> 00:56:43,480 with where it's going, but I think we're on the same page generally. 670 00:56:44,079 --> 00:56:47,599 Why is it that having you know, more asylum judges, more orderly process 671 00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:52,000 is still at this point in time at least going to result in more trafficking. 672 00:56:52,079 --> 00:56:59,880 Basically, we were and you're saying that having more judges would would lead 673 00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:05,159 to more trafficking. Well, more judges like paired as part of this package, 674 00:57:05,199 --> 00:57:07,360 this policy package, not specifically that bill, but basically what they're all 675 00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:16,679 saying is that we can have an orderly process at this moment in time where 676 00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:24,039 you know, we're still allowing CVP one and mass asylum without detention and all 677 00:57:24,079 --> 00:57:27,360 of that. All we have to do is put more money into it. 678 00:57:27,599 --> 00:57:30,719 Put more money into the system. Why is that still going to be the 679 00:57:30,760 --> 00:57:35,000 best way to put This is probably a pull factor. How do we conceive 680 00:57:35,599 --> 00:57:42,440 the sort of pull versus push right now? And what implications for policy does 681 00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:46,360 that have? Yeah, you know, it's just a band aid, And 682 00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:52,079 I'll be honest, I think it's still preferable to the status quote. Why 683 00:57:52,239 --> 00:57:57,719 because this you mean like the border bill tally? Oh interesting, Okay, 684 00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:00,679 cool. I actually do think that the border bill is preferable to the status 685 00:58:00,719 --> 00:58:06,320 quo because the status quo is just the worst of all worlds. The problem 686 00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:08,280 is that, yeah, sure, you still would have people being let out 687 00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:14,639 into the country without attention, no change to asylum policy more broadly, but 688 00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:20,840 because there's not enough judges and there's not enough infrastructure, and is sure, 689 00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:24,719 I mean it could be the case that things wouldn't change that much. And 690 00:58:25,079 --> 00:58:30,119 I can say this firsthand. These asylum cases take years to go through the 691 00:58:30,159 --> 00:58:37,159 courts. They're completely understaffed and overcrowded in most cases, you know, one, 692 00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:45,480 two, three years for an asily to even start. They have their 693 00:58:45,519 --> 00:58:49,760 first hearing. And when I say assilly, that's being generous because yeah, 694 00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:53,000 it's ninety percent of those claiming asylum do not have or more do not have 695 00:58:53,079 --> 00:59:00,840 a legitimate claim to asylum. So I do think that adding more judges and 696 00:59:00,039 --> 00:59:05,840 increasing funding for border patrol would be helpful. That said, yeah, it's 697 00:59:06,039 --> 00:59:12,800 it doesn't change the fundamental underlying conditions and the incentives we're giving people to come 698 00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:15,639 here. That needs to be completely changing. We need to bring back remain 699 00:59:15,719 --> 00:59:21,559 in Mexico. We need to massively increase deportations. Uh, and we we 700 00:59:21,679 --> 00:59:29,119 have to stop letting out millions of people into the country difficult, just completely 701 00:59:29,199 --> 00:59:32,559 unlooked after. Yeah, and you know, my perspective on this is that 702 00:59:32,599 --> 00:59:39,679 it's another it's almost like a sort of what's the best way to put this, 703 00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:47,760 what's the what's the word that the left always uses an American It's it's 704 00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:53,440 hegemony dressed up as social justice. I guess it's you know, at the 705 00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:58,719 expense of some of these other countries. It's almost as to your point on 706 00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:00,639 the morality of it. I mean, and yeah, regardless of what happens 707 01:00:00,639 --> 01:00:06,199 to the marale I mean, what progressives would say is that, you know, 708 01:00:06,239 --> 01:00:09,159 it's a moral to the poor people. It's a moral to be really 709 01:00:09,199 --> 01:00:15,920 restrictive on immigration. And honestly, they're not entirely incorrect. The problem is 710 01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:17,079 that, you know, there's shades are great here, what's more, and 711 01:00:17,119 --> 01:00:22,480 moral letting millions of people into your country, a lot of them completely unaccounted 712 01:00:22,519 --> 01:00:27,880 for. You don't even know who they are. And you know, I'm 713 01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:31,559 sure you've seen how the number of Chinese people coming here is also skyrocketed. 714 01:00:32,599 --> 01:00:35,920 These could be spies, We have no idea. Yeah, I've seen. 715 01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:42,480 Also the amount of terrorists that come up has gone up tenfold since the Trump 716 01:00:42,519 --> 01:00:45,679 administration. It's still a small number overall, but this is concerning and that's 717 01:00:45,719 --> 01:00:52,199 just who's been caught. Yeah, exactly, exactly, you know it just 718 01:00:52,239 --> 01:00:59,920 you're doing nothing about these human smuggling networks and criminals that take advantage of migrants. 719 01:01:00,960 --> 01:01:04,960 It's an escape valve for a lot of these terrible regimes that if you're 720 01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,239 a critic of the regime, oh here, just get out of here, 721 01:01:07,599 --> 01:01:10,519 and now you're no longer a problem for us. There's a lot of different 722 01:01:10,519 --> 01:01:19,039 ways to parse this. When you know, for progressives, it's all about 723 01:01:19,079 --> 01:01:24,639 empathy and it's funny because they just have no respect for themselves. Honestly, 724 01:01:24,679 --> 01:01:30,320 this is these sorts of policies or things that just end up hurting leftist parties. 725 01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:37,119 We talked about this that Ryan and Crystal love to cite this infuriating study 726 01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:39,840 on leftist parties in Europe with it. Oh, they took a hard line 727 01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:45,400 in immigration and then they lost. No, they didn't know, both rhetorically 728 01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:50,760 and in practice. The problem is precisely that that they didn't. And actually 729 01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:55,960 you look at Denmark for instance, as a popular leftist social democratic government, 730 01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:00,519 it's really hard on immigration. Yeah, and they've held they actually managed to 731 01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:06,440 leave the popularity of the far right because they took a hard line on immigration. 732 01:02:07,039 --> 01:02:12,000 Democrats used to understand this, but Barbara Jordan, the Jordan Commission, 733 01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:16,400 and used to you know, I think both rhetoric and action matters. It's 734 01:02:16,519 --> 01:02:22,920 just things have gotten so under control. Frankly, the numbers overall, I 735 01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:30,119 think under Trump weren't that much better relative to previous presidents. You know, 736 01:02:30,159 --> 01:02:34,159 Obama famously deported way more people than Trump ever did in just one of his 737 01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:42,119 terms. But relative to now, yeah, Trump is comparatively, you know, 738 01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:49,360 way better on immigration. So it's a really sad state of affairs. 739 01:02:50,159 --> 01:02:54,280 Yeah, well, before we wrap your one, could you is there anything 740 01:02:55,039 --> 01:03:00,639 that we haven't covered that you think people shouldn't know that maybe doesn't get enough 741 01:03:00,639 --> 01:03:06,880 attention, or that again we haven't even covered it here about Latin American politics, 742 01:03:07,039 --> 01:03:10,920 about migration crisis that we haven't covered that you again, that you think 743 01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:16,079 people should be aware of. I think that's too big of a question. 744 01:03:16,199 --> 01:03:22,239 I could come up with a lot of things, but maybe broad themes. 745 01:03:22,360 --> 01:03:30,159 Yeah, there's a lot of difference between the various governments in the region, 746 01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:34,400 both on the right and on the left. And there is some like fun 747 01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:40,119 maps you can look on Twitter that distinguished between a conservative left as Soa calls 748 01:03:40,159 --> 01:03:46,800 it a more progressive left, and then you know the tyrannical guys like Maduro 749 01:03:47,039 --> 01:03:52,599 and Ortego. Funnily enough, they're actually very socially conservative, you know, 750 01:03:52,639 --> 01:03:59,480 they're just horrible their tears. But on the right too, you also see 751 01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:03,199 a lot of differences. Is the more kind of traditional businessman right in general, 752 01:04:03,239 --> 01:04:06,639 on the Latin American right, you see the leaders tend to be businessmen, 753 01:04:09,119 --> 01:04:15,760 and then you have more kind of Christian nationalists and religious right figures like 754 01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:25,039 Bolsonaro, like John Matta and Guatemala. It's well, one of the things 755 01:04:25,079 --> 01:04:28,679 that I think is never helpful is just painting with a broad brush that all 756 01:04:28,679 --> 01:04:31,119 of these governments are the same in one way or the other, whether they're 757 01:04:31,159 --> 01:04:35,599 on the right or on the left. That's actually something JP sort of insinuated 758 01:04:35,639 --> 01:04:41,440 that I took beef with in the podcast with you, and you see this 759 01:04:41,519 --> 01:04:45,000 on the left too, that that say, you know, all these horrible 760 01:04:45,199 --> 01:04:51,559 US backed they always say that US backed conservative governments are doing extra y. 761 01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:59,039 I mean, guys, most of these governments were elected fairly by their voters, 762 01:04:59,239 --> 01:05:02,239 so there's there's reasons for that. You know. That's an interesting point 763 01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:04,800 because a lot of people would look at Latin America and say, well, 764 01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:08,960 these are all you know, there's so many failed states, and it can't 765 01:05:09,039 --> 01:05:13,559 it can't be real democracy. But it really is, yeah, I mean 766 01:05:13,920 --> 01:05:17,000 in just the basic sense. And you know, people talk about the quality 767 01:05:17,079 --> 01:05:24,599 of democracy. There's a lot of violence, electoral violence too. On paper, 768 01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:29,559 you know, most of these governments have elections and they're largely free and 769 01:05:29,599 --> 01:05:34,800 fair, except for you and the Troy Co terror but in most cases, 770 01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:39,000 yeah, the will of the people does always went over and you see that. 771 01:05:39,159 --> 01:05:43,920 You see that because people react against sky high levels of violence. Electing 772 01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:47,239 someone like Bouquela. Well, it's funny he didn't actually get elected originally on 773 01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:53,840 an anti crime platform, but that that's definitely a source of his popularity. 774 01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:58,920 Now, on the other hand, a lot of the leftists that got elected, 775 01:05:59,039 --> 01:06:05,519 like Chavez originally and let's say Petro and Columbia, they get elected because 776 01:06:05,519 --> 01:06:12,440 of decades long failures from the right. It's that simple, Argentina, Well, 777 01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:15,760 I guess, yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah, that's all right. 778 01:06:15,840 --> 01:06:18,840 Well, thank you so much for joining us. What's your Twitter handle 779 01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:24,760 so people can make sure to go follow you. Oh it's at rohst r 780 01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:30,800 one D. Okay, at rohusts r one D. Make sure to follow 781 01:06:30,840 --> 01:06:35,239 one's work in compact. You're right for the Telegraph. It's just great stuff. 782 01:06:35,280 --> 01:06:38,639 I can't recommend it enough, So thank you again for joining us. 783 01:06:39,119 --> 01:06:42,719 You've been listening to another edition of The Federalist or radio hour. I'm em 784 01:06:42,719 --> 01:06:45,840 Elegrisianski, culture editor here at the Federalist. We'll be back soon with more. 785 01:06:45,920 --> 01:06:59,599 Until then, be lovers of freedom and anxious for the fray.